#thai prime minister senate confirmation

[waitmyturtles]

From The New York Times: [Thai] Lawmakers Block Prime Minister Candidate From New Vote, Drawing Protests

[July 19, 2023: Pasting here to bypass the NYT paywall. I thought this was an excellent overview of the recent history of Thai elections, and how the Senate confirmation process works. Again, remember: references to what’s happening politically will likely make it into the dramas we watch later this year and next. By Mike Ives and Muktita Suhartoto.] 

Protests erupted in Bangkok on Wednesday, hours after Thailand’s conservative establishment suspended a progressive leader and lawmakers denied him the chance to stand for a second parliamentary vote for prime minister.

The candidate, Pita Limjaroenrat, leads a party that won the most votes in a May election after campaigning on an ambitious reform platform that challenged the country’s powerful conservative establishment. He lost an initial parliamentary vote for prime minister last week.

Late Wednesday, lawmakers voted to deny Mr. Pita, 42, the chance to stand for a second vote on the grounds that Parliament’s rules do not permit a “repeat motion.” Mr. Pita’s supporters see that as a not-so-subtle move to keep him out of power.

The mood in Bangkok, Thailand’s muggy capital, was anxious as protesters hit the streets on Wednesday afternoon. Mr. Pita’s supporters have been expressing outrage online toward an establishment that often pushes back against Thailand’s democratic process.

“In my heart, I knew this would happen, so it didn’t come as a shock,” said Wichuda Rotphai, 41, one of hundreds of people who gathered outside Parliament on Wednesday to support Mr. Pita’s doomed bid for premier. “But I’m still disappointed, and I can’t accept it.”

Here’s what to know.

What does Pita Limjaroenrat stand for?

Mr. Pita’s party, Move Forward, has proposed ambitious policies for challenging Thailand’s powerful institutions like the military and the monarchy. The party won 151 seats in Parliament, the most of any party, and 10 more than Pheu Thai, the party founded by the exiled populist Thaksin Shinawatra, whose influence still towers over Thai politics.

Mr. Pita’s party has formed an eight-party coalition, which nominated him for prime minister last week. He came up short in the first vote because the Senate is controlled by military-appointed lawmakers who oppose his candidacy and the Move Forward platform.

I’m confused. Why are senators so tied to the military?

Becoming prime minister requires a simple majority of the 500-seat House of Representatives and the 250-seat Senate.

But the rules governing Senate appointments were drafted by the military junta that seized power from a democratically elected government in a 2014 coup. They effectively give senators veto power over prime ministerial candidates.

Last week, Mr. Pita won only 13 votes from the 249 senators who voted for prime minister. Mr. Pita acknowledged in an Instagram post on Wednesday afternoon that he was unlikely to become prime minister.

“It’s clear now that in the current system, winning the people’s trust isn’t enough to run the country,” he wrote.

Why was it such an uphill battle?

Mr. Pita had faced a slew of challenges even before Parliament denied him a chance to stand for a second vote.

The Constitutional Court said on Wednesday morning, for example, that it was suspending Mr. Pita from Parliament until a ruling is made in a case involving his shares of a media company. Investigators are trying to determine whether Mr. Pita properly disclosed owning the shares before running for office, as required by Thai law.

The court’s ruling forced Mr. Pita to leave the chamber. It would not necessarily have prevented his coalition from nominating for a second time. But Parliament saw to that on its own.

Mr. Pita’s supporters have said the investigation is one of many ways that the establishment has been trying to unfairly derail his candidacy.

So who will be prime minister?

Before the drama on Wednesday, Mr. Pita had said if it became clear that he could not win, his party would allow its coalition partner, Pheu Thai, to nominate its own candidate.

Pheu Thai probably will do just that, but is also likely to form a brand-new coalition, one that is more palatable to conservative lawmakers who cannot stomach Mr. Pita and Move Forward.

Pheu Thai’s candidate would likely be Srettha Thavisin, 60, a property mogul with little political experience. If a new coalition materializes, he could be voted in as prime minister as early as this week.

Mr. Srettha would immediately present a sharp contrast to the current prime minister, former Gen. Prayuth Chan-ocha, who led the 2014 military coup.

A more remote, but not impossible, scenario is that Pheu Thai allows a party from the conservative establishment to nominate a candidate as a condition for joining a new coalition. That candidate could be Gen. Prawit Wongsuwan, 77, the deputy prime minister in the current government.

What would a Srettha victory represent?

Many would see it as a triumph for the democratic process in Thailand, a country with a long history of mass protests and military coups. Some foreign investors would also see a potential boost for a sluggish, coronavirus-battered economy.

But many of Move Forward’s progressive supporters would be angry about the establishment blocking their party from forming a government. On Wednesday evening, a demonstration reflecting that anger was taking shape at the city’s Democracy Monument.

The size of the protests over the next days or weeks will likely depend on who becomes prime minister. If it’s Mr. Srettha, demonstrations could be sporadic and modest. If it’s General Prawit or another military figure, they could be sustained and intense.

Ms. Wichuda, the protester, was one of hundreds who gathered outside Parliament on Wednesday afternoon, peering through its gates at police officers in riot gear. She said that while she did not agree with Mr. Pita’s contentious pledge to revise a law that criminalizes criticism of the monarchy, she still felt he had been “robbed” by politicians who were afraid to give a younger generation the chance to improve the country.

“If they can do such things to people with money and power,” she said, “what will be left for us, the common people, who have no position and no title?”

[sa7abnews]

Why Thailand’s Political Crisis Feels Familiar—and What’s Needed to Break the Cycle

New Post has been published on https://sa7ab.info/2024/08/16/why-thailands-political-crisis-feels-familiar-and-whats-needed-to-break-the-cycle/

Why Thailand’s Political Crisis Feels Familiar—and What’s Needed to Break the Cycle

History has a habit of repeating itself—but rarely as frequently as it does in Thailand.

On Wednesday, Srettha Thavisin of the populist Pheu Thai party became the fifth Prime Minister in the last 20 years to be ousted by Thailand’s conservative elites. In a 5-4 vote, Thailand’s Constitutional Court ordered Srettha removed from office after a group of senators accused him of an ethical violation, citing his cabinet appointment of a lawmaker who had previously been jailed for bribery.

While his political fate hung in the balance on Wednesday, Srettha himself had appeared quite unbothered, touring a market in Bangkok and getting his secretary-general to attend court on his behalf. After the verdict, a somber Srettha told reporters at the Government House that he accepted the decision. “I reiterate that for the almost one year I have been in this role, I have tried with good intentions to lead the country with honesty,” he said.

“This is not the first time that the Pheu Thai Party has encountered obstacles,” the party said on social media. “Every time we fall, we fall forward. And rise up again with confidence.”

But rather than genuine ethical concerns, critics say, politics was behind the verdict: Like his predecessors who have been toppled by the army or judiciary, Srettha was widely seen as a proxy for Pheu Thai founder Thaksin Shinawatra, whose own premiership was cut short by a military coup in 2006.

Srettha’s dismissal also comes just days after the opposition Move Forward Party was dissolved in another Constitutional Court ruling over its supposedly seditious campaign to amend the country’s royal defamation law. It’s the latest setback to the popular progressive party that emerged as the biggest vote-getter in last year’s general election but was ultimately blocked from forming the government by a hastily-made coalition between Pheu Thai and the military- and monarchy-aligned conservative establishment.

The developments over the past week have only confirmed the cyclical nature of Thailand’s ongoing political crisis. But experts say that, though forces like the unelected and unchecked Constitutional Court and a conservative-dominated Thai Senate remain viewed as defenders of the old guard, the movement for democracy in the country, which is increasingly popular at home and abroad, will continue to gain momentum.

“Thailand’s younger population—and the younger population that will come after them—will support more progressive, more democratic ideals,” Mark S. Cogan, associate professor of peace and conflict studies at Japan’s Kansai Gaidai University, tells TIME. “Those ‘dinosaurs’ will die out eventually,” he says, referencing a pejorative nickname given to Thailand’s conservative elites. But until then, he adds, “like a wounded animal,” those whose power is under threat will “use every tool at their disposal in order to survive.”

Srettha’s dismissal and Move Forward’s dissolution are “even more extreme than what has happened over the last two decades,” Napon Jatusripitak, a visiting fellow at the Singapore-based ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, tells TIME. “I think it’s been made plain that [the Constitutional Court’s] legitimacy should be questioned.”

But while both moves follow a clear playbook—Move Forward’s predecessor party Future Forward was similarly dissolved by a unanimous verdict in 2020—Srettha’s unexpected removal by a split judicial vote has proved a head-scratcher for even the keenest observers of Thai politics.

Srettha was elevated to the premiership last August as part of a post-election devil’s bargain between Pheu Thai and their former conservative rivals, united in the goal to keep Move Forward from power. Some see Wednesday’s verdict as a sign that their alliance is crumbling; others suspect that Srettha was only intended as a placeholder to fend off Move Forward while Pheu Thai and the conservatives continued the politicking over their preferred leader.

Srettha quickly carved out a reputation as a “salesman” for Thailand, pitching economic projects abroad while touting populist policies at home. But while the business-oriented leader had “banked so hard on soft power,” says Cogan, his short-lived efforts have now been diluted by the recent political upheavals that have “damaged” Thailand’s international image. Last week, Move Forward’s dissolution was met with statements of concern from Amnesty International, the United Nations, the European Union and the U.S. Department of State.

As Thaksin’s camp and the conservatives negotiate over the imminent selection of a new Prime Minister, the progressive movement is intent on breaking Thailand’s cycle of political crisis.

While Move Forward’s former leader Pita Limjaroenrat is barred from politics, the dissolved party’s 143 lawmakers have regrouped under the new name the People’s Party. The reincarnation of Move Forward announced on Wednesday that it opposed the verdict to remove Srettha from office, decrying the powers of the Constitutional Court and saying that it “believes that today’s events will make all sectors of society more aware of the urgent need to draft a new constitution.”

And while the next government—whether led by Pheu Thai’s Chaikasem Nitisiri, Thaksin’s daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra, conservative power broker Anutin Charnvirakul, or some other contender—is unlikely to help the People’s Party enact its liberal reform agenda, the progressive movement has its sights on a landslide general election victory in 2027, when it’s hoping to finally form a “government of change.”

“The establishment has been attempting to kill democracy, but that hasn’t been successful … because now you can see Move Forward is back in business,” Titipol Phakdeewanich, a political scientist at Ubon Ratchathani University, tells TIME. “It’s still possible for progressive parties to make a move, because they cannot entirely shut down progressive parties. At least they cannot stop elections anyway.”

But Cogan warns that the People’s Party cannot rest on its popularity alone. “There has to be some other development than just at the ballot box,” he says.

“So you can have all the success at the ballot box. But if you’re prevented from taking power, what does it matter? That’s not democracy,” says Cogan. “They must start cracking at the edges of the pillars that hold up those conservative elites.”

[brookstonalmanac]

Events 10.6

105 BC – Cimbrian War: Defeat at the Battle of Arausio of the Roman army of the mid-Republic 69 BC – Third Mithridatic War: The military of the Roman Republic subdue Armenia. AD 23 – Rebels decapitate Wang Mang two days after his capital was sacked during a peasant rebellion. 404 – Byzantine Empress Eudoxia dies from the miscarriage of her seventh pregnancy. 618 – Transition from Sui to Tang: Wang Shichong decisively defeats Li Mi at the Battle of Yanshi. 1539 – Spain's DeSoto expedition takes over the Apalachee capital of Anhaica for their winter quarters. 1600 – Euridice, the earliest surviving opera, receives its première performance, beginning the Baroque period. 1683 – Immigrant families found Germantown, Pennsylvania in the first major immigration of German people to America. 1762 – Seven Years' War: The British capture Manila from Spain and occupy it. 1777 – American Revolutionary War: British forces capture Forts Clinton and Montgomery on the Hudson River. 1789 – French Revolution: King Louis XVI is forced to change his residence from Versailles to the Tuileries Palace. 1810 – A large fire destroys a third of all the buildings in the town of Raahe in the Grand Duchy of Finland. 1849 – The execution of the 13 Martyrs of Arad after the Hungarian war of independence. 1854 – In England the Great fire of Newcastle and Gateshead leads to 53 deaths and hundreds injured. 1884 – The Naval War College of the United States is founded in Rhode Island. 1898 – Phi Mu Alpha Sinfonia, the largest American music fraternity, is founded at the New England Conservatory of Music. 1903 – The High Court of Australia sits for the first time. 1908 – The Bosnian crisis erupts when Austria-Hungary formally annexes Bosnia and Herzegovina. 1910 – Eleftherios Venizelos is elected Prime Minister of Greece for the first of seven times. 1915 – Combined Austro-Hungarian and German Central Powers, reinforced by the recently joined Bulgaria launched a new offensive against Serbia under command of August von Mackensen. 1915 – Entente forces land in Thessaloniki, to open the Macedonian front against the Central Powers. 1920 – Ukrainian War of Independence: The Starobilsk agreement is signed by representatives of the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic and the Makhnovshchina. 1923 – The Turkish National Movement enters Constantinople. 1927 – Opening of The Jazz Singer, the first prominent "talkie" movie. 1939 – World War II: The Battle of Kock is the final combat of the September Campaign in Poland. 1942 – World War II: American troops force the Japanese from their positions east of the Matanikau River during the Battle of Guadalcanal. 1943 – World War II: Thirteen civilians are burnt alive by a paramilitary group in Crete during the Nazi occupation of Greece. 1944 – World War II: Units of the 1st Czechoslovak Army Corps enter Czechoslovakia during the Battle of the Dukla Pass. 1973 – Egypt and Syria launch coordinated attacks against Israel, beginning the Yom Kippur War. 1976 – Cubana de Aviación Flight 455 is destroyed by two bombs, placed on board by an anti-Castro militant group. 1976 – Premier Hua Guofeng arrests the Gang of Four, ending the Cultural Revolution in China. 1976 – Dozens are killed by the Thai army in the Thammasat University massacre. 1977 – The first prototype of the Mikoyan MiG-29, designated 9-01, makes its maiden flight. 1979 – Pope John Paul II becomes the first pontiff to visit the White House. 1981 – Egyptian President Anwar Sadat is murdered by Islamic extremists. 1987 – Fiji becomes a republic. 1995 – The first planet orbiting another sun, 51 Pegasi b, is discovered. 2007 – Jason Lewis completes the first human-powered circumnavigation of the Earth. 2010 – Instagram, a mainstream photo-sharing application, is founded. 2018 – The United States Senate confirms Brett Kavanaugh as a Supreme Court Associate Justice, ending a contentious confirmation process.

[warningsine]

In every Thai election since 2001, the party that has won the most seats in the House of Representatives has been run by or linked to Thaksin Shinawatra, who served as Thailand’s prime minister from 2001 to 2006. This trend has held even as Thai politics entered an era of chaos. Thaksin was ousted by a military coup, ending 15 years of constitutional transfers of power; he went into exile. In 2008, a government led by his brother-in-law Somchai Wongsawat was dissolved by the Constitutional Court. Thaksin’s sister Yingluck Shinawatra was overthrown as prime minister in another military coup in 2014.

The leaders of the 2014 coup still rule Thailand today, and Thaksin’s 36-year-old daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, hopes to lead the Thaksin-linked Pheu Thai Party to victory in the national election on May 14. Whether Paetongtarn can prevail in a stacked electoral playing field and whether the traditional establishment would accept the result remain open questions. Thailand’s next prime minister will again be selected by the democratically elected 500-seat lower house and the 250-seat Senate, which is appointed directly by the military, a change that followed the latest coup.

On May 14, the Pheu Thai Party hopes to win a large enough landslide—or assemble a large enough coalition—to overcome the challenge posed by the Senate and make Paetongtarn the prime minister. But a too-resounding victory for Pheu Thai will threaten Thailand’s conservative establishment, made up of both military leaders and monarchists, and raise the risk of another coup. (The 2006 and 2014 military coups came after months of anti-government protests by hard-line royalists known as “Yellow Shirts.”) Pheu Thai could avoid a similar scenario by working with a military-linked party. However, this compromise may rankle its own supporters, not to mention the reform-minded young activists who led mass protests in 2020.

Thaksin remains one of Thailand’s most influential political figures. During his time as prime minister, his populist economic policies—such as introducing universal health care and debt relief—reduced poverty and earned him widespread support, especially among the rural poor. But his mass popularity posed a challenge to the monarchy, and he upset the military by limiting defense spending and promoting personal allies through the ranks. Paetongtarn, who has never held public office, has evoked nostalgia for the time before 2014 and for her family name during her campaign. She has embraced similar messages as her father, including a pledge to increase Thailand’s minimum wage.

The Pheu Thai Party was founded to evade legal bans on previous political parties linked to Thaksin. The party won 136 seats in the 2019 Thai elections, the first held after the 2014 coup, but the Palang Pracharath Party—led by junta officials—received a big head start. Because the military appointed the Senate, coup leader Prayuth Chan-ocha easily overcame Pheu Thai’s electoral advantage and was confirmed as prime minister by a vote of 500-244. Although that system remains in place, a schism within the traditional establishment has fueled some hopes that the opposition now has a real chance at the prime minister’s office.

Late last year, Prayuth joined a new party called United Thai Nation, leaving the Palang Pracharath Party in the hands of Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwan, another former general. But some analysts are quick to splash cold water on the idea that this could divide the Senate in the opposition’s favor. “I don’t think the Senate would actually split up,” said Titipol Phakdeewanich, dean of the political science faculty at Thailand’s Ubon Ratchathani University. Both Prayuth and Prawit want to “hang on” to power, he said, and “in the end they will just compromise and work together.”

Thailand’s conservative establishment currently reflects an alliance between the military and the country’s powerful monarchy—both of which view the power of a figure like Thaksin and calls for greater democratization as a threat. “Sure, there will be divisions among senators based upon a Prawit-Prayuth schism. But if the option is a pro-Thaksin government, then senators will unite against a Pheu Thai government,” said Paul Chambers, a lecturer at Thailand’s Naresuan University, adding that the 2023 election is a “poll created by, for, and of the monarchy-military alliance.”

If Pheu Thai does ally itself with one of the military-affiliated parties, partnering with Prawit and the Palang Pracharath Party might be more palatable for its supporters than working with the main coup leader. “We can’t rule out that possibility,” Titipol said. “Pheu Thai talks about democracy, but it’s also about political expediency and how to take advantage of the system. They are not really focusing on democratic principles.” Facing a barrage of corruption charges, Thaksin hasn’t set foot in Thailand since 2008. One of Pheu Thai’s main goals is to secure his safe return, Titipol added. The party would likely make concessions to ensure that happens.

However, Pheu Thai faces a potential challenge from its current coalition partner: the progressive Move Forward Party, which is firmly committed to democracy. The party is popular among Thai youth and succeeded the Future Forward Party, which was dissolved in 2020 for financial misconduct—charges that supporters and rights groups say are politically motivated. The Future Forward Party surprised many observers by winning the third-most seats in 2019, its first election. Move Forward leader Pita Limjaroenrat said that this year, the party aims to take the most seats in the lower house, running on a message of “decentralizing the country, demonopolizing the country, and demilitarizing the country.”

Public polling suggests Pheu Thai is still expected to win the election, but the progressive party appears to be a force to be reckoned with. Pita said that Move Forward would work with Pheu Thai but would “definitely not work with the junta’s successor parties.” “We believe that the pro-democracy parties, the current opposition parties, are the best option for the country to form the ruling coalition to lead Thailand through a challenging time,” he said. Depending on its performance, Move Forward could complicate an attempt by Pheu Thai to broker a compromise after the election—or it could be left out in the cold.

Pheu Thai party leadership denies that it has a preexisting plan to cooperate with Prawit’s party, insisting that it expects to win a supermajority of seats and form a government on its own. Should this fail, the party’s deputy leader said Pheu Thai would only work with other pro-democracy parties. (Pheu Thai did not respond to a request for an interview.) But if Pheu Thai took the most seats in the lower house and partnered with Prawit and the Palang Pracharath Party, it’s not out of the question their alliance could capture support in the Senate while diminishing the likelihood of another coup.

Unlike in 2019, a few senators have already pledged to abstain from voting for prime minister or to back the candidate with majority support in the lower house, Ken Lohatepanont, a Ph.D. candidate at the University of Michigan, pointed out. “I would still view it as unlikely that the body as a whole would support a Pheu Thai or Move Forward candidate, although it is more conceivable that they would support Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwan,” he said, adding that the Senate’s role in selecting the prime minister remains a “temporary provision”—and one that might not see the next election cycle.

One potential kingmaker is the moderate Bhumjaithai Party, which is currently the second-largest party in the conservative ruling coalition. “We can say for sure that whoever wins the elections will need Bhumjaithai to form a government,” a party executive confidently told the Thai public broadcaster last year. Bhumjaithai could also lead a weaker civilian government in alliance with either Prawit or Prayuth, Chambers said. The party presents itself as a middle ground between the establishment and those seeking major reforms: It has opposed changing Thailand’s draconian lèse-majesté laws while embracing social liberalization, such as the nation’s decision to decriminalize marijuana last year.

Given that Thailand has seen two military coups in less than 20 years, it’s no surprise that many observers are considering which election results could lead to another one. Chambers said he thinks a coup would be likely if Pheu Thai secures a landslide election victory, or possible even if it strikes a deal with Prawit. “If by some chance the Election Commission does approve an election result in July which gives Pheu Thai a landslide, then expect a coup in the months thereafter,” he said.

However, Titipol disagreed: “Even if Pheu Thai wins, they would find a way to compromise with the military,” he said, adding that the generals likely wouldn’t have the public backing or support of big business necessary to pull off another coup. After all, another crisis could reverberate across Thailand’s economy and sully its reputation as a stable country for tourism and investment. In 2008, royalist protesters seized control of Bangkok’s main international airport, and two years later the military massacred those protesting against the government formed in the wake of the dissolution of the Thaksin-linked administration.

If Pheu Thai does win this year, all of this could incentivize the party to compromise with the military establishment and hope for more genuine reform after the next election, four years from now. But as with any political concession, that would leave the party at risk of abandoning the values that set it apart from its political opponents in the first place. Move Forward is waiting in the wings to capture any disaffected Pheu Thai supporters unable to stomach such a deal. And if recent history is any guide, Thailand’s military could simply knock the board off the table if it feels threatened by potential reforms, whether in 2023 or 2027.

[news-of-the-day]

9/30/22

Putin signed two decrees that annex four regions of the Ukraine, although even with the invasion Russia does not control them fully militarily. From now, Russia will claim it's defending its own territory. As far as I can tell, no one else is recognizing this, even China (although that can change). In response, the Ukraine announced it would bid for a fast-track into joining NATO, and the US announced a new package of sanctions. A rocket strike hit a civilian convoy, killing at least 25.

This is an editorial from me, not news: If the Ukraine joins NATO, that is a big, massive deal. The Cold War was pretty much everyone trying very hard for the USSR and NATO not to come into direct combat, so if a country that is in active military engagement with Russia joins, well... there's a possibility what the world's been avoiding for decades may come to fruition. Russia's already been vaguely threatening to use nuclear weapons, and everything could become even more ramped up from there.

The Senate passed a bill that would temporarily halt a shutdown through to December. One of the holdups was Senate Manchin (D-WV), who wanted to add an energy provision as a prerequisite for his support, but that upset everyone so he took it off the table. The bill also allocates $12.3B for the Ukraine.

Judge Cannon, who is overseeing the DOJ/Trump trial, says Trump does not have to clarify to the special master whether his documents were planted or declassified.

Six states sued the Biden administration's plan to forgive some of the student debt, stating he does not have the authority to do that. There were many people angry when Biden announced the $10K-$20K forgiveness, asking why the burden had to fall on the taxpayer. (The Congressional Budget Office said it would cost about $400B.) Also in some states, debt relief is considered taxable income so the forgiveness plan triggered state taxes ranging from about $300-$1100, depending where you live.

Florida is assessing the damage from Hurricane Ian, restoring power, and looking for survivors/the dead. There are 21 confirmed deaths, and 18-20 Cuban migrants went missing on their boat. Ian will hit South Carolina very soon, and its time over the Atlantic increased its power from a tropical storm back up to a category 1.

Thai Prime Minister Prayuth will remain in office after a constitutional court ruled he did not exceed term limits. Prayuth stepped down temporarily after protests that he had been in power too long (since 2014), but the counterargument was his term actually started in 2017 when the new constitution came in.

A suicide bomber hit an institute in Kabul where students were preparing for exams, killing 19-20.

1) Moscow Times, Reuters, BBC, Al Jazeera 3) NYT 4) Washington Post 5) Bloomberg, KY3 6) Tampa Bay, CBS, Axios 7) WSJ 8) Al Jazeera

[antoine-roquentin]

Thailand’s junta looks likely to hang on to power after official results from the general election were finally announced following a 45-day delay that raised serious questions about the complex formula used to calculate the vote.

Thailand has been in political limbo for six weeks while the election commission refused to release the official results of the 24 March poll. It was the first in eight years and was supposed to mark the country’s return to democracy after five years of rule by a military junta.

The official results, released late on Wednesday evening, confirmed what the preliminary results had shown: that Pheu Thai, the pro-democracy party aligned with the exiled former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, won the most seats, with 136.

However, Pheu Thai cannot form a government because it fell well short of the 250 seats needed for a majority in the lower house.

In the week after the election, Pheu Thai and six other parties claimed they had formed a coalition which had 255 seats and was ready to govern, but the results released on Wednesday showed that this “democratic front” only had 245 seats.

Pheu Thai pledged to “pursue every legal means” to challenge the results, describing the complicated formula used to partly calculate the seats as an “an intentional abuse of the law and against the constitution”.

The junta’s proxy political party, Phalang Pracharat, which ran in the election as a way for the military to hold on to power through the ballot box, came second with 115 seats.

However, thanks to a new constitution drawn up by the military in 2016, it has the power to appoint all 250 seats of the senate, the parliamentary upper house. The senate votes with the lower house on who becomes prime minister, meaning that the military needs only 126 seats in the lower house to bring back the junta leader, Prayut Chan-ocha, as prime minister. Whoever is prime minister has the power to assemble a cabinet and is the leader of the government.

There are several small parties known to have military sympathies, which could provide enough votes to secure Prayut as prime minister. The junta will also be looking to these parties to help form a pro-military coalition that can hold a 250-seat majority in the lower house, so that Prayut will not have to preside over an unstable minority government which would be unable to pass any legislation and would probably fall apart in weeks or months.

[dispatchesfrom2020]

2020

Week 38: September 14-20

14: Barbados - a country I’ve sorely neglected in these daily summaries - is quietly moving towards greater independence from the United Kingdom. Prime Minister Mia Mottley announces they will be transitioning to a republic in 2021, replacing head of state Queen Elizabeth II with a Barbadian. Mottley’s party, the Barbados Labour Party, hold a two-thirds majority in parliament which will enable them to pass constitutional amendments. The country’s Governor General, Sandra Mason, says “The time has come to fully leave our colonial pas behind. Barbadians want a Barbadian head of state. This is the ultimate statement of confidence in who we are and what we are capable of achieving”.

Queen Elizabeth II and Prince Phillip in Barbados in 1966 - Getty Images

At this point, I am newly quarantining in my parents’ garage following the wedding. Assuming I’d be living on a diet of peanut butter sandwiches, I wisely packed snacks but my mom goes all-out. She leaves trays of hot breakfasts, cut fruit and freshly-baked cookies on the steps outside - and brings me out fresh pajamas and socks. I get really obsessed with TikTok and listen to my catalogue of saved podcasts.

15: A two-month old baby dies of COVID-19 in Michigan, becoming one of the pandemic’s youngest victims. And the City of Louisville Kentucky settles a wrongful death suit with the family of Breonna Taylor, a young black woman killed by police as they executed a no-knock warrant. The family demanded substantial police reforms - and the city agrees. In addition to the $12m settlement, Louisville will require commanding officers to sign off on search warrants, require officers to perform community service, and provide housing vouchers to incentivize cops to live in the same neighbourhoods they police.

Portrait of Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Everett Raymond Kinstler, 1996, Collection of the National Portrait Gallery

16: Ruth Bader Ginsburg - the Notorious R.B.G - has died of cancer, aged 87. She was only the second woman appointed to the Supreme Court and the first Jewish woman. Her death falls near the Jewish holiday Rosh Hashanna, one of the holiest days of the year. Ginsburg was well known for her sharp and passionate dissents, her stylish jabots, and her enduring advocacy for women’s rights and gender equality. The loss is immediate - a deep and angry wound.

17: Hurricanes Teddy and Sally are whipping through the Atlantic. While Teddy is bigger - the fourth largest hurricane in history when measured by diameter - Sally is more destructive, as she sweeps along southern seaboard, leaving hundreds of thousands without power. Reports emerge that Attorney General Bill Barr has instructed federal prosecutors to aggressively pursue charges against people arrested during the summer’s anti-racism protests and riots. At least two people familiar with the call allege that Barr suggested charging them with sedition and insurrection (*laughs in 2021*). 

Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s seat is draped with black cloth in the wake of her death earlier this week - Fred Schilling/Collection of the Supreme Court

18: With presidential elections in little over a month, Republicans move to fill the newly vacant Supreme Court seat left vacant by Ginsburg’s death two days earlier. During Obama’s final year in office, conservative Justice Antonin Scalia died, leaving a vacancy. With nine months remaining in Obama’s presidency, the senate refused to hold confirmation hearings, arguing that the seat should remain empty until the fall’s elections, when voters had a chance to cast their ballots, allowing them to shape the course of the courts. Republicans, it turns out, rarely hold themselves to the same standards they set for others.

19: On the 16th anniversary of the country’s last military coup, 50,000 Thai protesters march from Thammasat University to a field near the Grand Palace. They are demanding democratizing reforms. Former Canadian Prime Minister John Turner has died. Turner ruled the country for 79 days in 1984. In unrelated Canadian political news, Conservative leader Erin O’Toole is self-isolating after it is announced that he tested positive for the coronavirus. 

20: Ending this week with a bit of frothy joy. CBC’s Schitt’s Creek takes home 7 Emmy awards after sweeping the show’s comedy category. Catherine O’Hara is unrivalled.

[newstfionline]

Headlines

Firefighters battle exhaustion along with wildfire flames (AP) They work 50 hours at a stretch and sleep on gymnasium floors. Exploding trees shower them with embers. They lose track of time when the sun is blotted out by smoke, and they sometimes have to run for their lives from advancing flames. Firefighters trying to contain the massive wildfires in Oregon, California and Washington state are constantly on the verge of exhaustion as they try to save suburban houses, including some in their own neighborhoods. Each home or barn lost is a mental blow for teams trained to protect lives and property. And their own safety is never assured. Oregon firefighter Steve McAdoo’s shift on Sept. 7 seemed mostly normal, until late evening, when the team went to a fire along a highway south of Portland. “Within 10 minutes of being there, it advanced too fast and so quick ... we had to cut and run,” he said. “You can’t breathe, you can’t see.” That happened again and again as he and the rest of the crew worked shifts that lasted two full days with little rest or food. They toiled in an alien environment where the sky turns lurid colors, ash falls like rain and towering trees explode into flames, sending a cascade of embers to the forest floor. “The sky was just orange or black, and so we weren’t sure if was morning or night,” he said. “My crew and I said that to each other many times, ‘What is going on? When is this going to end?’”

Rescuers reach people cut off by Gulf Coast hurricane (AP) Rescuers on the Gulf Coast used boats and high-water vehicles Thursday to reach people cut off by floodwaters in the aftermath of Hurricane Sally, even as a second round of flooding took shape along rivers and creeks swollen by the storm’s heavy rains. Across southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, homeowners and businesses began cleaning up, and officials inspected bridges and highways for safety, a day after Sally rolled through with 105 mph (165 kph) winds, a surge of seawater and 1 to 2 1/2 feet (0.3 to 0.8 meters) of rain in many places before it began to break up. Crews carried out at least 400 rescues in Escambia County, Florida, by such means as high-water vehicles, boats and water scooters, authorities said. In Alabama, on both sides of Mobile Bay, National Guard soldiers from high-water evacuation teams used big trucks Thursday to rescue at least 35 people. At least one death, in Alabama, was blamed on the hurricane. Nearly 400,000 homes and businesses were still without power Thursday night, mostly in Alabama and Florida.

Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg dies at 87 (AP) Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, a towering women’s rights champion who became the court’s second female justice, died Friday at her home in Washington. She was 87. Ginsburg died of complications from metastatic pancreatic cancer, the court said. Her death just over six weeks before Election Day is likely to set off a heated battle over whether President Donald Trump should nominate, and the Republican-led Senate should confirm, her replacement, or if the seat should remain vacant until the outcome of his race against Democrat Joe Biden is known.

Flights to nowhere (Washington Post) With international travel in much of the world still disrupted by the coronavirus pandemic, some airlines are resorting to “flights to nowhere” that target passengers who long for air travel—and some are willing to shell out plenty of money for the tickets. Qantas, among the latest to advertise a flight that departs and arrives at the same airport, told Reuters that the trip sold out less than 10 minutes after going on sale on Thursday. “It’s probably the fastest-selling flight in Qantas history,” a spokeswoman for the airline said.

Health-care workers make up 1 in 7 covid-19 cases recorded globally, WHO says (Washington Post) Health-care workers account for 1 in 7 coronavirus cases recorded by the World Health Organization, the U.N. agency said this week. “Globally, around 14 percent of covid-19 cases reported to WHO are among health workers, and in some countries it’s as much as 35 percent,” WHO director general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said at a news conference in Geneva. The figures are disproportionate: Data collected by the WHO suggests that health workers represent less than 3 percent of the population in the majority of countries and less than 2 percent in almost all low- and middle-income countries. In April, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found that health-care workers accounted for 11 percent to 16 percent of covid-19 cases during the first surge of infections in the United States. When covid-19 began spreading through Western nations early this year, health-care workers faced critical shortages of personal protective equipment, also known as PPE. Even now, well over half a year into the pandemic, there are shortages of tests.

Bank of England considers negative interest rates (Yahoo Finance) The Bank of England yesterday indicated that it could cut interest rates below zero for the first time in its 326-year history as it tries to shore up a U.K. economic recovery that is facing the dual headwinds of the coronavirus and Brexit. After unanimously deciding to maintain the bank’s main interest rate at the record low of 0.1%, the nine-member rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee said it had discussed its “policy toolkit, and the effectiveness of negative policy rates in particular.”

Why French Politicians Can’t Stop Talking About Crime (NYT) In the Babel Tower of French politics, everyone agrees at least on this: Crime is out of control. The leader of the far right warned recently that France was a “security shipwreck” sinking into “barbarity.” A traditional conservative conjured up the ultraviolent dystopia of “A Clockwork Orange.” On the left, the presumed Green Party candidate in the next presidential contest described the insecurity as “unbearable.” And in the middle, President Emmanuel Macron’s ministers warned of a country “turning savage”—the “ensauvagement” of France—as they vowed to get tough on crime and combat the “separatism” of radical Muslims. The only catch? Crime isn’t going up. The government’s own data show that nearly all major crimes are lower than they were a decade ago or three years ago. But like elsewhere, and mirroring the campaign in the United States, the debate over crime tends to be a proxy—in France’s case, for debates about immigration, Islam, race, national identity and other combustible issues that have roiled the country for years.

India’s coronavirus cases jump by another 96K (AP) India’s coronavirus cases jumped by another 96,424 infections in the past 24 hours, showing little sign of leveling. The Health Ministry on Friday raised the nation’s total past 5.21 million, 0.37% of its nearly 1.4 billion people. India is expected to have the highest national total of confirmed cases within weeks, surpassing the United States, where more than 6.67 million people have been infected. India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi on his birthday on Thursday made a fresh appeal to people to wear masks and maintain social distance as his government chalked out plans to handle big congregations expected during a major Hindu festival season beginning next month.

Russia boosts its military presence near Chinese border (Foreign Policy) Russia is bolstering its troop presence in the country’s east in response to growing geopolitical threats in the region, though the Kremlin did not say what those threats are. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said that 500 units of new, advanced equipment were being sent to the region, but he did not specify the destination. The moves are likely a response to China’s growing assertiveness, though some parts of the region have been gripped by protests against the government of President Vladimir Putin in recent weeks. In July, people took to the streets in the city of Khabarovsk, which lies along the border with China, after the arrest of the region’s hugely popular governor, Sergei Furgal, who beat out Putin’s favored candidate in an election in September 2018.

Taiwan scrambles air force as multiple Chinese jets buzz island (Reuters) Taiwan scrambled fighter jets on Friday as multiple Chinese aircraft buzzed the island, including crossing the sensitive mid-line of the Taiwan Strait, in an escalation of tensions the same day a senior U.S. official began meetings in Taipei. Earlier on Friday, China’s Defence Ministry announced the start of combat drills near the Taiwan Strait, denouncing what it called collusion between the Chinese-claimed island and the United States. Beijing has watched with growing alarm the ever-closer relationship between Taipei and Washington, and has stepped up military exercises near the island, including two days of mass air and sea drills last week.

Apprehensive Thais await major political rally in Bangkok (AP) A two-day rally planned this weekend is jangling nerves in Bangkok, with apprehension about how far student demonstrators will go in pushing demands for reform of Thailand’s monarchy and how the authorities might react. In an escalation of tactics, organizers plan to march to Government House, the prime minister’s offices, to hand over petitions. The initial demands of the alliance of groups behind a series of anti-government demonstrations were for a dissolution of Parliament with fresh elections, a new constitution and an end to intimidation of political activists. But the main organizers behind this weekend’s rally have been promoting an additional point. They want restraints on the power of the monarchy, an institution long presented as the nation’s cornerstone and untouchable. This open challenge to the palace has dramatically raised the political temperature.

‘Boiling again’: Lebanon’s old rivalries rear up amid crisis (Reuters) An old rivalry between Christian factions who fought each other in Lebanon’s 1975-1990 civil war has flared again on the street and in political debate, renewing fears of fresh unrest as the nation grapples with its worst crisis since the conflict. The feud between supporters of Michel Aoun, now Lebanon’s president, and Samir Geagea’s Lebanese Forces (LF) led to a tense standoff this week near Beirut. Gunshots rang out, but no one was hurt. The rivalry today is about more than Christian politics: Aoun is allied with Hezbollah, the heavily armed, Iran-backed Shi’ite party. Geagea spearheads opposition to Hezbollah, saying it should surrender its weapons. The standoff was the latest in a country that has seen sporadic violence intensify as an economic crisis that erupted last year has deepened. It was compounded by a huge blast that ripped through Beirut on Aug. 4. The government has resigned and efforts to form a new one under French pressure are floundering. “The security situation is reaching a breaking point,” said Mohanad Hage Ali of the Carnegie Middle East Center.

Israelis Prepare to Celebrate the Year’s Holiest Days Under Lockdown (NYT) As Israelis prepare to celebrate the holiest days on the Jewish calendar under a fresh lockdown, organizing prayer services is proving to be more of a mathematical brainteaser than a spiritual exercise. Rabbis are having to arrange worshipers into clusters of 20 to 50, separated by dividers, determining the number and size of the groups based on complex calculations involving local infection rates, and how many entrances and square feet their synagogues have. Masks will be required, and many seats will have to remain empty. The three-week national lockdown was timed to coincide with the Rosh Hashana and Yom Kippur holy days and the festival of Sukkot, in the hope of causing less economic damage because business slows down in any case around the holidays. It was also aimed at preventing large family meals that could become petri dishes for the virus. Israel successfully limited the spread of the virus in the spring, but recently its infection rate has spiraled into one of the world’s worst. The country has had more than 300 confirmed new cases per 100,000 people over the last week—more than double the rate in Spain, the hardest-hit European country, and quadruple that of the United States.

Violence in Ethiopia (Foreign Policy) More than 30 people were killed in militia attacks in western Ethiopia last week, officials said on Thursday, underscoring the country’s worsening security situation and creating new problems for Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The attackers are “groups aimed at overturning the reforms journey,” Abiy said in a tweet. Abiy entered government promising sweeping reforms of the country’s political system, but his efforts have since faced criticism from opponents and former allies. Last week, the country’s Tigray region held parliamentary elections despite the national government’s decision to postpone the vote over coronavirus concerns. The region is home to the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, the country’s dominant political force before Abiy’s takeover in 2019.

[bangkokjacknews]

Universities told to stop students calling for reform

Thai authorities have summoned the heads of universities to tell them to stop students demanding reform of the monarchy, warning that such calls could lead to violence, a member of the military-appointed Senate said on Sunday. Thailand has faced near daily protests since mid-July calling for the departure of Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, a former junta leader, and for a new constitution and elections. Some groups have also listed 10 demands to curb the powers of King Maha Vajiralongkorn’s Royal Palace, breaking a long-standing taboo in the Southeast Asian country. Senator Somchai Sawangkarn told Reuters that letters had been sent by state-appointed provincial governors to university heads, summoning them to meetings ahead of protests planned on Sept. 19 in Bangkok and elsewhere. “University administrators should create understanding with the students on this and should put a stop to the demands on the monarchy,” he said. “We did not tell the governors to block the protests but we want them to create understanding with university officials, especially on the 10 demands for the monarchy.” An interior ministry official confirmed that such letters had been sent and said it was standard procedure. The Palace did not respond to requests for comment. Student leader Panusaya “Rung” Sithijirawattanakul, 21, who was the first to read out the list of 10 demands for palace reform, told Reuters it amounted to “desperate tactics”. “They Read the full article

[lollipoplollipopoh]

Can Thailand ever be a democracy? | Inside Story by Al Jazeera English When you look at a country that's had 12 coups since 1932, along with another seven attempted ones, well, there's clearly something of a love-hate relationship with democracy. And so it is in Thailand, which had an election in March, the first since the 2014 coup, and now has a newly-confirmed Prime Minister. Only this Prime Minister was the same army general who led that coup, leading to a whole lot of questions about the true state of democracy in Thailand. On Inside Story, an in-depth discussion on the relationship between state, military, monarchy, and the people, and why that mixture proves so unstable, time and time again. Presenter: Kamahl Santamaria Guests Michael Montesano, coordinator for the Thailand Studies Programme at the Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore. Sunai Phasuk, senior researcher for Asia at Human Rights Watch, and a former adviser to the Thai Senate. Anthony Nelson, Director of the East Asia and Pacific Practice at the advisory firm Albright Stonebridge Group. - Subscribe to our channel: http://bit.ly/291RaQr - Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/AJEnglish - Find us on Facebook: http://bit.ly/1iHo6G4 - Check our website: http://bit.ly/2lOp4tL #AlJazeeraEnglish #TheStream #ThailandDemocracy

[waitmyturtles]

Our favorite Thai simps are tweeting right now on the latest developments regarding parliamentary/Prime Ministerial elections. Here are two articles that break down what’s happening, and if @telomeke is tracking anything and wants to share it, please do (dear friend — tag, you’re it!).

It looks like the Move Forward candidate, Pita Limjaroenrat, did not muster enough Senate votes to confirm his Prime Ministership, and will have to face another Senate vote in a few days:

And in that context, he has been accused of potential breaking election ethics laws:

Remember that the Move Forward party is the favorite of a younger Thai electorate — Move Forward is the party that says it will legalize same-sex marriage in Thailand in its first 100 days of leadership.

Everyone has been tweeting about this — P’Aof, Tay, Mix, Nanon, etc. Remember that Our Skyy 2 x The Eclipse also made reference to these styles of elections. If shit goes down, it WILL be referenced in our beloved dramas!

[southeastasianists]

In the last days of 2016, a warning from the Thai government spread across Cambodia’s social media like a stain: canned food manufactured in Thailand had been contaminated with HIV. At the urging of some nameless supervisor, the story went, more than 200 HIV-positive workers had intentionally infected countless products with their blood. On Facebook, on Twitter, in mass texts, the message was clear: no Thai product was safe.

It wasn’t until the Thai embassy in Cambodia released a furious statement that rumour gave way to reality: nothing about the story was true. Although exposed as a lie, it had already gone viral.

As Cambodians increasingly turn to social media for their daily information fix, the fervour for ‘fake news’ – which has saturated Western media since it came to define the 2016 US presidential election – has taken hold of a nation where lies and libel have long been used as political weapons.

“[Many social media accounts] just spread rumours instead of posting about confirmed news, and they can also be biased,” said 24-year-old human resources worker Hak Sreypov, a view shared by many of the Phnom Penh residents Southeast Asia Globe spoke to. “So when I read those [sources], I lose confidence and trust in them. Also, sometimes they try to attack certain individuals with their posts. When I see that, I think the page can’t be trusted.”

Sreypov said Facebook remained her main source of news despite its unreliability.

And with some news sites getting plenty of clicks even with dubious content, they are not shying away from publishing material yet to be proven either true or false, choosing instead to regurgitate unsourced information that falls in line with their own political biases.

In early February, a Facebook account under the name ‘Seyha’ posted an unverified recording allegedly exposing then-opposition leader Sam Rainsy working his Parisian charm on an unknown woman. With it came a warning: “All the CNRP [Cambodia National Rescue Party] supporters, please listen: Sam Rainsy, our president, always seeks sexual intercourse with a masseuse and now even a waitress, known as Phal.”

As scoops go, they don’t come much better. Digital news site-cum-government mouthpiece Fresh News soon had the story. Poised above the pained smirk of Cambodia’s most famous opposition face, the black text almost seemed to burn a hole into the screen: “Sam Rainsy Allegedly Seduces a Waitress”.

Alongside the article – an admirable exercise in economy of language at just four paragraphs – was the recording itself: “Today is Thursday,” the man’s voice cooed. “Tomorrow is Friday, then Saturday. Saturday we’ll meet with each other.”

“2017 is the year that CNRP’s heads have faced many alleged mistresses,” Fresh News added helpfully.

Last month, several opposition lawmakers found themselves facing public humiliation after Fresh News faithfully reproduced a barrage of unsourced accusations from the same Facebook page suggesting they were caught up in illegal gambling, extramarital affairs and – most sordidly – public sex within the National Assembly. Never one to miss an opportunity, Prime Minister Hun Sen called for an internal investigation into the rumours and, should it be required, a Buddhist ceremony to thoroughly “cleanse” the building.  

Coming less than a week before Cambodia’s exiled opposition leader resigned from his post, in what he framed as an effort to save his party from dissolution at the hands of the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP), this latest round of rumour and raunch may have seemed the least of Rainsy’s worries. But as the international media works itself to fever pitch over the spectre of so-called ‘fake news’, the regime’s relentless attacks on the reputations of its enemies has taken on a grim new character.

Days after Rainsy’s resignation, a letter allegedly written by him was circulated on social media after appearing on Fresh News. In it, “Rainsy” pushed CNRP leaders to appoint his wife as the party’s new president ahead of his deputy Kem Sokha. Although Rainsy dismissed the document as fake, Hun Manith – head of military intelligence and one of the prime minister’s sons – held it up on social media as proof of infighting within the opposition.

For Cambodian Centre for Human Rights executive director Chak Sopheap, it is a pattern of deception that shows few signs of easing.

“The recent leaks targeting CNRP politicians may be conducted over a new medium, but the political game being played is a familiar one,” she said. “Then, as now, these personal matters are used as an attempted distraction from the severe human rights issues plaguing the country.”

Council of Ministers spokesperson Phay Siphan said the leaks were a matter for private individuals.

“We don’t have any law to regulate social media – we don’t have that,” he said. “But we are worrying, everyone in Cambodia, about fake news.”

On 1 March, Rainsy raised the stakes by distributing an extensive cache of alleged text messages involving senior CPP figures, members of Hun Sen’s family and prominent businesspeople. As Southeast Asia Globe went to print the content of the alleged logs had not been verified but appeared to highlight links between the ruling party and several high-profile business moguls.

Rainsy, who claimed he had not even read the files before forwarding them from an anonymous source to the media, appeared unaware of the hypocrisy of leaking unverified personal information while telling the Cambodia Daily: “I am not going to take part in one way or another in this despicable game with very cheap people.”

The opposition has not been entirely innocent of stretching the truth to further its own agenda either – though there’s no doubt that the consequences of their claims have been more severe in a country where defamation suits are frequently wielded as a blunt instrument by the ruling party. In November, opposition senator Hong Sok Hour was sentenced to seven years in prison on forgery-related charges for his involvement in a 2015 video posted online that presented a fake 1979 treaty between Vietnam and Cambodia to “dissolve” the border between the two nations. This accusation – echoing the long-held CNRP line that Hun Sen and his party are little more than Vietnamese stooges – continues to resonate among the CNRP and its supporters: in December, Rainsy and two of his assistants were sentenced in absentia to five years in prison for a Facebook post once again holding up the treaty as legitimate. Six months earlier, Rainsy was ordered to pay almost $40,000 after falsely claiming that the 1980s regime led by now-National Assembly president Heng Samrin had sentenced King Norodom Sihanouk to death. No such sentence was passed.

Long Sokunthyda, an 18-year-old majoring in global affairs at the American University of Phnom Penh, said she was sceptical of information spread across social media by politicians from all parties.

“They’re promoting themselves,” she said. “It’s all about the good deeds that they do, so we don’t really know whether it’s true or not because they’re just trying to self-promote.”

CNRP vice-president and rights activist Mu Sochua rejected the idea that the opposition manufactured information to match their own agenda.

“I don’t think we have used social media to spread false documents or news – it’s not part of our strategy,” she said. “We do not create false documents. If we have information, we will share it with the public, but we don’t produce fake documents.”

For 22-year-old salesperson Hun Chanpisey, though, not all consumers of online news are savvy enough to filter fact from fiction.

“Most of the time people don’t take the time to really think about the news – they just eat the information up, and even agree with the ideas that the news posted without trying to confirm it,” he said.

Noan Sereiboth, an active blogger and a core member of political discussion group Politikoffee, said anonymous and unsourced rumours targeting opposition politicians on social media were only becoming more frequent as commune elections scheduled for June draw closer.

“It is a big concern when [social media users] share [a story] without knowing if it is true or not or reading it in detail – because sometimes it is just propaganda,” he said. “Now some fake account users are trying to spread sexual and gambling rumours of opposition party members to defame and attack them… Whether it is true or not, it can destroy their reputation and dignity and… disturb their ability to campaign in the upcoming election.”

Sopheap said that while social media had freed many young Cambodians from a media landscape previously dominated by government-aligned networks, its lack of accountability made it a minefield of dangerous misinformation.

“The rise of social media can be seen as a double-edged sword,” she said. “For the first time, enriched information is accessible to a large section of the population, marking an improvement to the prior situation in which people mostly relied on pro-government news sources. However, as we have seen, this also leaves people very vulnerable to manipulation by fake news.”

It is a problem that will only continue to grow as Cambodia’s youth become more and more entrenched in social media. An Asia Foundation report into mobile use in Cambodia released last year revealed that Facebook had overtaken other media as the number one source for news among Cambodians, with 30% of respondents reporting that social media was their primary way of getting informed about news and current events. As with the rest of the world, it is a transition driven by rising access to technology: the survey found that almost half of Cambodians owned at least one smartphone – more than double the percentage reported three years ago.

Sereiboth suggested that a dearth of independent mainstream media was partly to blame for driving young Cambodians toward alternative news sources. “When media outlets affiliated with the ruling party provide biased news, the youth turns to social media to access news to see the real Cambodia rather than to believe what one side tells them,” he said.

The murky ownership of Cambodia’s Khmer-language news outlets has long been criticised by human rights groups, but the extent of Hun Sen’s domination of the Kingdom’s media was dragged into the spotlight once more with the publication of Global Witness’ Hostile Takeover report last year.

The report listed Hun Sen’s eldest daughter Hun Mana as one of two media moguls with extensive holdings across radio, television and the print media. The three television stations and one radio station broadcast by media company Bayon Media Hight System, of which Mana is both chairperson and majority shareholder, are notorious for their bias toward the ruling party. Popular Khmer language newspaper Kampuchea Thmey Daily, which frequently publishes pro-CPP articles, is similarly chaired and owned by Mana.  

Pa Nguon Teang, executive director of the Cambodian Centre for Independent Media, said the prime minister’s grip on Cambodia would not be possible without his family’s stranglehold on the nation’s news outlets. “Hun Sen has ruled this country by media, not by a system of authority,” he told Southeast Asia Globe after the report’s release.

For Vanaka Chhem-Kieth, a lecturer at Paññasastra University and co-founder of Politikoffee Media, the lack of trustworthy mainstream news sources in Cambodia made the potential pitfalls of social media even more concerning than in countries with reliable independent media. “Social media, Facebook and so on are a fact of life – it’s the tool of our generation,” he said. “And just like in any other country it’s a learning process, except that some of the potential drawbacks here and cons of social media are potentially a lot bigger than [in the West].”

In the lead-up to the June commune elections, he said, the risk of an increasingly polarised population would only be worsened by the unsourced information saturating social media.

“It could [affect the election] in terms of fake news being spread around, in terms of people reacting in very emotional ways to events or news that can more easily be blown out of proportion through that platform rather than through balanced and less-instant media,” he said. “So there’s definitely additional risks.”

The Kingdom remains rife with rumour, a situation that appears unlikely to change any time soon. And for Sokunthyda, the problem is reflective of a deep political divide within Cambodia’s public.

“It depends which side you’re on,” she said. “You see what you want to see and you trust what you want to trust.”

– Additional reporting by Hemmunind Hou

[whittlebaggett8]

Will the Upcoming Thai Elections Be Free and Fair?

And if they are not, what should really liberal and democratic political functions in Thailand do?

By Kiat Sittheeamorn for The Diplomat

March 19, 2019

On March 24, extra than 40 million registered Thai voters are predicted to go to the polls for the country’s initially elections due to the fact 2011 and its first because the navy takeover in 2014. Are these elections heading to be cost-free and honest? Flexibility, in the context of elections, pertains to the voters and candidates’ opportunity to participate in the election without coercion or restriction of any kind. Fairness, on the other hand, refers to impartiality in the software of the election law, constitutional provisions and other regulations. The upcoming elections encounter problems on each grounds.

At the quite ideal, sure developments — for instance, conditions in opposition to political events — will one particular way or an additional have an effect on the notion of free of charge and good political natural environment in the region irrespective of the details or evidence in the cases.

On February 27, the Constitutional Court requested the dissolution of Thai Raksa Chart, a bash allegedly joined to exiled former leading Thaksin Shinawatra, for hostility to the constitutional monarchy by nominating Princess Ubolratana Rajakanya as the party’s candidate for prime minister, which is regarded a violation from the spirit of the constitution and the country’s extensive-standing tradition. On top of that, the chief and customers of a new party, Upcoming Forward, had been also billed below the Pc Crime Act. If identified responsible, they could face a good up to 100,000 Thai baht ($3,157) and/or a jail term up to 5 a long time. Questions have been lifted as very well about the fairness of election regulations and regulations, and of pertinent constitutional provisions. For illustration, the latest constitution mandates both equally the higher and decrease dwelling of parliament to vote for prime minister, and not just the lower property as typically practiced in lots of parliamentary democracies.  The 250-member upper dwelling — the Senate — will be selected fully by a variety committee handpicked by those currently in electric power.

Having fun with this posting? Simply click in this article to subscribe for comprehensive accessibility. Just $5 a thirty day period.

The variety method permits incumbent Deputy Primary Minister Prawit Wongsuwan to be appointed as chair of the committee although the prime minister himself, Prayut Chan-o-cha, will have the last say on who would be in the listing. As Prayut himself is also a candidate for prime minister, owning been nominated by the new pro-present-day govt Palang Pracharath Party, the expectation is that his Senate appointees will vote for him as a block, offering him a developed-in benefit around other candidates.

The composition of the 500-seat lower residence — the Household of Associates — will be crammed out by way of a difficult blended-member proportional (MMP) electoral program.  Under this system, 350 customers will be elected in one-member constituencies though the remaining 150 will occur from occasion-lists. Unlike the celebration-list technique of proportional representation, the new MMP voting process makes each individual vote rely for both of those candidates and the get-togethers. Lots of critics assert that this could lead to inefficiency or political gridlock as events will be forced to rule by coalitions. The complexity of the new procedure could also trigger more confusion between voters.

It is also intriguing to be aware that the appointed to start with-time period Senate will outlive the lower property by a single 12 months, for that reason offering the entire body influence in the next government (both of those the governing administration and the House of Reps have a expression of business office of 4 many years). Just one of the Senate’s tasks is to make certain that any new administration follows the 20-yr countrywide strategies set in area by the present authorities.

Additionally, Report 44 of the Interim Structure — giving the government department particular powers and passed into the present structure in a specific provision — will nonetheless be in pressure until the assumption of the new government. On March 20 very last year, the authorities made use of the unique electric power below Article 44 to eliminate a member of the Election Commission from the business devoid of any rationalization.

This means that the army govt will nonetheless have complete electric power during the election right up until the development of the new governing administration. It may become crucial in the 60-working day interregnum amongst the election and the Election Commission’s announcement of official effects. It is also crucial to notice that all earlier and long term orders and announcements of the present-day authorities remain in drive right up until amendments or cancellations by the new govt.

Based on the higher than, the dilemma as to no matter whether the future elections will be cost-free and fair appears to have some merit. This qualified prospects to a corollary concern for us among the the liberal and democratic political get-togethers: “If the elections will not be totally free and honest, what are we heading to do about it?”  

This issue has been lifted so numerous times just before in the context of international locations-in-changeover — from the Philippines in 1986 to Malaysia in 2018. Time and once again, it has been confirmed that we should really make use of every democratic opening — no make any difference how restricted — to push towards a a lot more democratic course. The upcoming Thai elections must be viewed in this light-weight. It may not tick all the boxes of what we take into consideration to be free of charge and good, but it is a step ahead for the country and its people.    

In these elections, there will be an approximated 7 million first-time voters.  If their existence on social media would basically translate to turning up at the polling stations on Election Working day, these elections might just shock us. Kiat Sittheeamorn is a party-list prospect for Property of Associates below the Democrat Celebration of Thailand.  He is also a Vice President of Liberal International and previous Secretary Typical of the Council of Asian Liberals and Democrats.

The post Will the Upcoming Thai Elections Be Free and Fair? appeared first on Defence Online.

from WordPress https://defenceonline.com/2019/03/19/will-the-upcoming-thai-elections-be-free-and-fair/