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tastydregs · 1 year ago

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Global Fertility Collapse Will Be Worse Than the Black Death

The Economist magazine is also raising the alarm that before 2100 the number of people on the planet could shrink for the first time since the Black Death. The root cause is not a surge in deaths, but a slump in births. Across much of the world the fertility rate, the average number of births per woman, is collapsing.

Nextbigfuture has written several times that a Population Collapse Will Reshape the Global Economy by 2050.

If people or kids do not exist, then they cannot contribute to a nations economy. These will be huge effects by 2050 and even larger by 2100 and beyond. All of the forecasts that China and India will have economies many times larger than the USA will NOT happen. It is not just that the countries get old before they get rich, the countries economies shrivel up and shrink.

Japan is going from 122 million people today to about 100 million people in 2050-2056. By 2050, its population could fall below 100 million, of whom 38.8% will be 65 or older. 20 million of Japan’s people are over 75 years old today and 37 million are over 65. Japan’s per capita GDP is shrinking because the median age in Japan is 48.4 years old. About half of Japan’s work force is over 50, which is when productivity starts dropping until they stop working.

Population loss does directly cause economic losses. Population loss from now to 2050 will cause about 20-30% in economic damage or about a $60 trillion in economic loss. The GDP of a country is the amount of working people times the average economic contribution from each person. If your economy has 30% fewer people and all the people had on average the same productivity then you would lose 30% of your economy.

China currently has a total fertility rate of 1.18. However, a survey of Chinese women indicates similarities to South Korean women for family size. South Korea has a total fertility of 0.78. IF China will struggle to stabilize its fertility rate at 0.8, then its population will fall to less than 1.02 billion by 2050 and 310 million in 2100. If China succeeds in holding its fertility rate to 1.1 and prevents it from declining, its population will likely fall to 1.08 billion by 2050 and 440 million by 2100. This would be 232 million fewer people in China in 2050 than the UN projections. The UN was assuming that China would have a total fertility rate of 1.5. This would be about a 18% drop in total population but a 30-40% drop in the working age population by 2050.

China will be losing 10 million people per year from its working age population from 2027-2050. Japan will be losing 1 million people per year from its working age population from 2023-2050. The working age populations for China, Japan, Italy and Spain will be about 20-30% smaller in 2050 than today.

Total Fertility Rates of Top GDP Countries USA 1.66 China 1.18 Japan 1.3 Germany 1.6 India 1.99 UK 1.75 France 1.84 Italy 1.29 Canada 1.47 Brazil 1.67 Russia 1.5 S Korea 0.78 Australia 1.60 Mexico 1.79 Spain 1.29

Populations that are already shrinking : China, Japan, Italy, Spain, Russia, South Korea

If there is a TFR of 1.4 that means that each woman will only have an average of 0.7 daughters. This means in two generations the number of fertile women drops in half. If there is a TFR of 1.0 that means each woman will only have an average of 0.5 daughters. This means in one generation the number of fertile women drops in half. Korea with a TFR of 0.78 that means each woman will only have an average of 0.39 daughters. This means in one generation the number of fertile women is 40% of the previous generation.

South Korea was not going to peak until 2024, but this was accelerated to peak population in 2019. Covid started South Korea’s population decline sooner.

Over 80% of the world’s GDP is in countries that have total fertility rates that are below replacement.

It is not just a China, Japan, Italy, Spain, Russia and South Korea problem. Those countries are first but the below replacement rate issue and the loss of fertile women in each of the next decades means that the avalanche has started for almost all countries. It is something about our cities, work life and society that is anti-family.

None of the pro-natal measures have moved ANY country back up to over replacement level.

The measures and re-organization of societies and cities must be vastly more aggressive.

The Rule of TWO… point one

Husband and wives MUST average 2.1 children. It is not optional for humanity and society.

In biology, when a population starts declining, it is usually not a controlled thing that re-stabilizes at a lower level.

Self-Genocide

If Aliens from space or an other country were forcing the disappearance of large numbers of the next generation, then the population would fight and resist. Japan losing 30 million people from a peak of 128.2 million in 2008 to 98 million in 2055 would be worse than all its losses in WW2. It would be 200 times worse than the Hiroshima and Nagasaki nuclear bombs.

China could lose over 300 million people 2050 out of 1.42 billion. China lost 20 million people in WW2 out of 525 million.

The Black Death was the most extreme pandemic. It killed 30 to 50 percent of the entire population of Europe. The plague might have reduced the world population from c. 475 million to 350–375 million in the 14th century. (1346-1353)

A global TFR of 1.4 over the remainder of the century could bring global population from a peak of 9-10 billion in 2050 to 6-7 billion in 2100. It would be a Black Death over 50-60 years instead of 7 years. But the low birth population decline might not stop.

China and South Korea or any other country that has TFR dropping to 1.0-1.1 would 30-40% of its current population. It would be worse than the 30-50% of the hardest hit Black Death European countries. The low population culling would be 60-70%.

Cold War nuclear war casualty estimates were about 30-50% of the targeted countries.

Again low birth rates will be worse than nuclear war in reducing populations.

Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.

Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.

A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.

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