#source: kim monte

[incorrectvoyagerquotes]

I hate when boxing announcers say a boxer is "down for the count." I don't care that he loves Dracula, I just want to know who's winning.

Chakotay

[almanach-international]

16 février : le Jour de l’étoile brillante en Corée du Nord

Cette célébration, en Corée du Nord, porte le nom de Jour de l'étoile brillante (Gwangmyeongseongjeol, 김정일의 날), c’est l’anniversaire de Kim Jon-il, fils du fondateur du régime et le père du dictateur actuel.

Né officiellement le 16 février 1942 (la vraie date reste mystérieuse), selon la légende, au sommet du mont Paektu, la montagne sacrée des Coréens, Kim Jon-il est le fils de Kim Il-Sung, le fondateur du régime totalitaire imposé à la Corée du Nord depuis 1948. Il en a été le deuxième leader, au pouvoir de 1994, à la mort de son père jusqu’à son propre décès en 2011, remplacé par son fils, Kim Jong-un, le n°1. Une telle succession dynastique, la lignée de Paektu, est unique à l’époque contemporaine. Elle puise aux sources mythologiques, le mont  Paektu étant le lieu de naissance de Tangun, le fondateur mythique du premier royaume coréen.

En 2013, Kim Jong-un a institutionnalisé la théorie de la vie éternelle de ses prédécesseurs, Kim Il-sung et de Kim Jong-il, formalisé dans le « Code de vie éternelle de Suryong ». À l’imitation de la sainte  Trinité chrétienne, le régime nord-coréen repose sur la logique selon laquelle Kim Il-sung et Kim Jong-il existent au sein de Kim Jong-un, comme Dieu et le Saint-Esprit dans la personne du Christ. Ce jour férié national, chaque 16 février, est aussi une manière de célébrer, au sens religieux du terme, toute la dynastie régnante.

S’il ne s’effondre pas subitement, comme beaucoup de dictatures, le régime va devoir innover car Kim Jong-un est en mauvaise santé et on doit imaginer sa succession. Déjà est mise en avant une fillette de 11 ou 12 ans (sa naissance avait été tenue secrète), Kim Ju Ae, fille cadette de l’actuel leader (il a aussi un fils, caché). En mars 2024, les médias officiels ont commencé à désigner Kim Ju Ae avec le titre très honorifique de « hyangdo » (personne d’un grand conseil ), laissant penser qu'elle pourrait succéder à son père. En attendant, elle doit être unique. Tout Nord-Coréen portant le même prénom d’elle, Ju Ae, a été prié d’en changer. À présent qu’elle est médiatisée, il est bien sûr interdit de chercher à s’habiller ou à se coiffer comme elle.

L'anniversaire de Kim Jong-il a commencé à être officiellement célébré le 16 février 1975, pour son 33e anniversaire. L’année suivante, en 1976, le 16 février fut désigné jour férié. À partir de 1986, la fête a été prolongé au lendemain de l'anniversaire, ce qui en fait une fête de deux jours. C’est bien le moins, pour une date qui a été désignée par les autorités comme le jour le plus important de l’année.

Un article de l'Almanach international des éditions BiblioMonde, 16 février 2025

[getawayferrari]

RED (bonus chapter: the internet’s reaction)

warnings — none, maybe foul language

author’s note — i wanted to do something fun and quick, so this was born LMAO

word count — 302

other chapters

TMZ

BREAKING NEWS: AMELIA PEAK AND FORMULA ONE STAR CARLOS SAINZ TOGETHER?

Amelia Peak and Formula One driver Carlos Sainz might be the internet’s newest and hottest couple — TMZ gets exclusive sightings.

Amelia “Serial Dater” Peak was pictured out on a date with Carlos Sainz on Monday following the Monaco Grand Prix. Sources tell TMZ that the couple was seen “holding hands under the table”.

We are not sure when their romance began, but we know for a fact that the singer was a guest of Ferrari during the racing weekend in Monaco as pictured here:

She was also seen wearing a Ferrari hat with the numbers 55 on it, which is Sainz’s racing number.

Currently, we have no further information on the couple, but we sure do hope to see more of them in the future.

MORE FROM TMZ:

— AMELIA PEAK’S WILD DATING HISTORY: from Harry Styles to Jacob Elordi and many more!

— KIM KARDASHIAN IS “SINGLE AND READY TO MINGLE” AFTER KANYE DIVORCE

— RIHANNA AND ASAP ROCKY ENGAGED??

DeuxMoi

Anon pls! Amelia Peak and Carlos Sainz out in Monte Carlo. They were holding hands under the table, looking pretty cozy together. Are they dating?

Twitter

user: CARMELIA WHAT?? NOT MY TWO WORDS COLLIDING WITH AMELIA AND CARLOS DATING WTFFSHHSHZJSJ

user: another tough day to not be amelia peak #carmelia

user: NOT CARLOS SAINZ STEALING MY GIRL

user: i’m sorry but this is literally such a random couple.. i want to know absolutely everything. #carmelia

user: currently crying bc i’m not carlos sainz

user: DID ANYONE ELSE SEE THAT PICTURE OF AMELIA AND CARLOS IN MADRID WITH HIS DOG OF THEM DRIVING AROUND BECAUSE IM VIOLENTLY SOBBING😭😭

user: the next album will be so good i just know it. #carmelia

user: always them european men…….. #carmelia

user: everyone’s search history rn #carmelia

taglist — @oyesmendes @starxqt @soleilgrec @ricciardosheart @ihearttheoriginals @sgkophie @lovingroscoee @dr3lover @freeloveandlight

[overthinkingkdrama]

Exit Review: Itaewon Class

Synopsis

Park Saeroyi is a socially awkward high school student and son of a devoted and kind single father. His unvarnished righteous personality has a tendency to rub people the wrong way, but it is not in his nature to back down from what he believes to be right. After a run in with a bully named Geun Won, the son of the ruthless, vindictive CEO of a restaurant empire, Saeroyi winds up pitted against the powerful, unscrupulous Jangga Co. After a tragic incident shatters Saeroyi's world and winds up with him going to prison, he decides to dedicate his life to beating Jangga Co. on its own corporate turf while keeping his principles intact.

Review

Story: My first impressions of Itaewon Class were largely positive. The drama wasn't doing anything I hadn't seen before in another form, but there was something compelling about it. I wasn't sure whether to attribute that to the writing or the strong performances from the leads, but I was willing to give credit to both and see where things would go. At its most basic level, Itaewon Class is a classic revenge melo with a slick, modern coat of paint. As the drama went on I still found a lot of things I liked about it, and I was impressed out how daringly it dealt with certain topics that your average Kdrama has historically been reluctant to even hint at (racism and xenophobia in South Korea being one. The positive inclusion of a named trans character who even gets a love line later in the run being another.)

So, let it not be said that there is nothing praiseworthy or boundary pushing about this drama. That is not the case. However, as we got late into the run I started having more and more issues with the writing on a narrative level. Itaewon Class has some of the most uneven character development I've seen in a drama. Clearly some of the characters were a focus while others were decidedly not. That wouldn't be so bad in and of itself if the scripts for the last 6 episodes specifically hadn't felt in places like they were written by an entirely different writer, a writer with only a passing knowledge of the development and characterization that had come before. Geun Soo and Geun Won's character arcs are the most egregious example, but Soo Ah suffered from this as well. Additionally, Soo Ah--who was divisive for a lot of the audience but who I quite liked during the first half of the run--had a huge motivation gap for much of the drama leading into the finale week, one that was hastily pasted over in a way that made it no less frustrating as a viewer.

Although Itaewon Class has decidedly melo tendencies from the beginning, the first half of the run felt more or less grounded in reality. However, those problematic last 6 episodes during which the decline in writing quality was rapid took several makjang turns that made what was meant to be a serious ramp up in stakes into a source of unintentional hilarity.

I've already gone on too long, so I won't get into the love lines here. I'll only say that the romance, along with everything else in the plot, lost significant steam in the second half of the drama.

Acting: I really have nothing negative to say about the acting in this. Obviously, these things are going to vary from actor to actor and taste to taste, but I was very impressed with the acting in this drama as a whole. In the past I've been critical of Park Seo Joon (some would say unfairly so) but I do recognize that he's a true talent, and this is easily the most I've liked him in anything. He really manages the pathos, the fierce bullheadedness and the gut punch moments for Saeroyi impressively well. The extended cast is strong. Special props to my girl Lee Joo Young for her role as Hyun Yi. I hope she gets a ton more recognition in the future because this show did so well in the ratings. I also liked Kim Dong Hee as Geun Soo (even though I completely loathed the handling of his character arc) and I'm kind of curious to see what he could do in a better written role. This was my first time seeing Kim Da Mi in anything, and I will give her what I consider the biggest compliment I can give to an actor: I'm going to seek out other things in her filmography, and I'm going to watch her career, because she has something special.

Production: Itaewon Class is a good looking show. A little bit too squeaky clean for my tastes, but indisputably well shot and frequently quite pretty to look at. The sequences in Itaewon itself were considerably stronger and had better energy than any of the corporate stuff. However, the set they used for Jang Dae Hee's office was really neat looking and suited his character beautifully. I also liked everyone's styling. The sponsored clothing in this drama is on point.

Feels: This could definitely be a personal problem but I felt really let down by this drama. All the way through the climax of episode 8 and possibly even including episodes 9 and 10 this drama was probably a 8/10 for me or better. It wasn't perfect, but it was pushing boundaries, and it was surprising me with some unique characters. Yi Seo specifically is a female character I haven't seen before, and I was invested in her development. I know not everyone is going to agree with this or see where I'm coming from and that's fine. I don't begrudge other people enjoying this one. But I thought the last 3 weeks cratered hard and completely spoiled my enjoyment with the inconsistent and frankly sloppy writing. Beyond that, as a revenge melo I didn’t think it worked. Part of what makes a revenge story so satisfying is seeing a righteous character go up against a Goliath and succeed against all odds. The final combat in a truly great revenge story--a la The Count of Monte Cristo--happens within the hero. It takes place between the heroes sadistic desire to see his enemy experience the pain he experienced and his essentially decent and heroic nature. This drama didn’t give me that. By the time it ended it really felt like Saeroyi was bullying a dying, bitter old man. There was nothing triumphant and satisfying about it. As an avid consumer of the revenge genre, it just felt bad, to be honest, and subverted my expectations in an unpleasant way.

Would I recommend Itaewon Class? I bumped up my rating for some truly good acting and a strong first half, but I probably wouldn't recommend this drama to anyone. 6/10 

[fy-keo]

faq & links

Sorry links are being updated .. slowly ><;;

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📸 @leo_jungtw | @keken_0406

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— ERAS ~ KOREA —

PREDEBUT  SUPERHERO  •  ROCK UR BODY   ON AND ON  HYDE  •  GR8U VOODOO DOLL ETERNITY  •  ERROR  LOVE EQUATION  •  CHAINED UP ZELOS  •  HADES  •  KRATOS MI LKY WAY EVENT SHANGRI-LA Scentist

—   ERAS ~ JAPAN —

DEPEND ON ME • HANA KAZE • ラララ ～愛をありがとう～

♕ taekwoon’s musicals 

2014: Full House Role: Lee Young-jae 2016: Mata Hari Role: Armand 2016-17: Monte Cristo Role: Albert 17 ~1708: Mata Hari: She's Back Role: Armand 17.12.14 to 18.03.11 The Last Kiss Role: Prince Rudolf 18: Elisabeth Role: Der Tod

Marie Antoinette Role: Axel Von Fersen 

♕ jaehwan’s musicals & dramas 

2015: Chess Role: Anatoly Sergievsky

2015-16: Cinderella Role: Prince Christopher 2017: Boys Over Flowers Role: Tsukasa Domyouji 1704~170713: Hamlet Role: Hamlet 171112: Titanic Role: Fredrick  mephisto dracula          

140923 to 141209 Boarding House 24 Role: Lee Jae Hwan 180727 to Tofu Personified Role: Kim Joo Heon

♕ photoshoots, making of & fansigns 

hello stranger pony: 2016• 2017 jambangee : 2016 • 2017 • ivy club

season's greetings : 2015 • 2016 • 2017 • 2018

♕ reality shows 

plan v diary

vixx diary one fine day vixx where asia loves

♕ music & radio 

music bank the show king of masked singer cultwoshow sbsyoungstreet Magazine marie claire scene playbill ~ aug 2017

[sammyhale]

J2M SPN UK 2018 Panel

At the start of the J2M panel, they made Misha introduce J2 and Jensen is laughing at him lol. 

They gave Misha a short chair like at SDCC next to Jared (they changed it back right after lol). Jensen: “Ah, it’s the little things.” 

Misha “What’s your normal routine up here... do you guys do acrobatics?”

Jared explains to Misha that they play strip question on stage. If you get the question wrong, you have to take off an article of clothing. 

Jared: “I guess my dream job has always been no job... but I would have liked to have been a teacher!” Jensen to Jared: “I learn from you daily, you are a teacher!” Jared put his head on Jensen’s shoulder :)

Jensen: “Sometimes I feel like the right answer would be a Chippendales dancer!”

Misha: “I thought I was gonna be a politician when I grew up!” 

Wrong answer: Misha strips off his jacket lol. 

Jared: “Jet lag has not been nice to Mr. Misha.” 

Jensen earlier about J2M trio op: “We’re doing a crossover. Jensen, Jared & Gollum.” Jared to Misha: “Had I known you looked like this, I wouldn’t have taken a shower.”

Jensen: “There’s another crossover photo later. Supernatural and The Walking Dead.”

J2M just got offered food and now they're totally fighting over those gummy bears.

Jared nudging Misha to grab gummy bears from a fan: “Misha, Scooby dooby doo!”

Mishalecki are fighting over Misha’s jacket

Jensen: “Jared keeps translating English to English, but he breaks it up and it’s actually worse!”

Jared got the question wrong so he strips and now Jared’s jacket is off!

Jensen would consider a Supernatural tattoo after the show ends because it’s a huge part of his life. 

Jensen and Jared both say they would consider getting an SPN tattoo after the show ends.

Jensen took a picture of Jared stripping. 

Misha: I wish I’d worn my good socks today. Jared: I’m surprised you have socks on! Jensen, cracking up: Things are looking up Mish, you left the house with socks on!

J2M trying to stump the fans to get the audience to strip.

Fan asks if when Dean and Cas do intense stares if it’s written in the script. Jensen says yes, that in the script it’ll be like a serious moment and then it will say “eye f-u-c-k.” They explain that in general all staring scenes between characters are written like that lol. They say that there’ll be a scene where everyone is eye-fucking. They mention another example in a recent episode between Rich and a female character (I’m assuming the Gabriel and Rowena scene from the last ep lol). 

If they could go back & further explore a storyline? Jensen: Demon Dean & purgatory. Jared: Soulless Sam and Sully. Misha: Human Cas & a new storyline with “cool Cas.”  

Misha’s sock is off. 

Misha: “I’m wearing one shoe and no sock... this is starting to feel like a walk of shame right now!”

Jensen on his cell phone contact that’s famous and is not from SPN is Corey Taylor. Jared’s is JJ from Kaleo, and Misha’s is the Queen lol.  

Misha is happy about his two degrees of separation to Neil Gaiman on Twitter through Kim.

Fan: If your character could swap character arcs who would you swap with? Jared: You know what, I’m gonna say it. I wouldn’t fuckin’ change it. “Sam’s my boy, I wouldn’t change anything.” 

Jensen would have swapped with the storyline with Gabriel when he went to Monaco. Jared whispers in Jensen’s ear. Jensen: or Monte Carlo. Jensen loses his overshirt lol.

Misha: I'm hard on Cas. Jared: Woah!!

Jensen Iced Misha (for those who don’t know, Icing someone means the person has to drink a little bottle of Smirnoff Ice - brand of vodka - while kneeling down on one knee lol).  

Misha refuses to drink it on stage so he goes backstage and Jared follows, giving a play by play of Misha drinking the Smirnoff with plenty of innuendos, cracking Jensen up who stayed on stage. 

Misha: “I'm not agreeing to a trio panel again!” 

Fan asks if after seeing Jack use his powers without being evil, do you think it’s changed Sam’s perception of his own powers? Jared says that Sam took Jack under his wing and so far, he thinks it’s been successful that Jack hasn’t turned evil and feels reassured about his own. 

Jared took his shoe off. “There, I lost my shoe.”

Jared: “When you sweat in the snow you get used to sweat proof socks!”

Asked about important changes SPN gave them. Jared: I met the mother of my children on the show and a couple of my best friends! Jensen *points to self* Jared nods and puts his head on Jensen’s shoulder and Jensen touches his head <3 

Jensen says he has a lot of relationships now and the show made it so he can live and raise a family where he wants. 

Misha: Having families. The only reason why my wife has sex with me is because I’m on the show lmao. 

Fan asks about the boys going on a hunt in Amsterdam. Jared says he wants to go to Anne Frank’s house and dig up some Nazi ghosts and kill them! Jensen: I killed Hitler. 

Jensen says that in Amsterdam Dean would get lost in the red light district, Cas would be stoned in a cafe somewhere, and Sam would be on an architectural tour.

Misha gets called out on his old answer last year & has to take off his belt.

Fan: I have ten princess dresses. Jared, pointing at Jensen: So does he!

Jared: Come on Misha get it right. I don’t want to see you naked. Again. Jensen: Today.   

Who would you meet and pay an autograph for? Jared: I paid for Richard Kiel’s autograph. Jensen: Robert Plant. Misha: Bob Garfield. Jared also mentions that he would have loved to meet Carrie Fisher. 

Fan: I’ve been watching you since I was two. I’m 16 now. J2M are devastated lol. 

Fan: So in your group, is there a mother hen figure who stops you from getting into trouble? J2M in unison: NOPE. Jensen: “The problem is, we don’t have one!”

Jared: "You know when they say the inmates are running the asylum? That's us." 

Jared: “I still find a freedom and a source of creativity in what I do.” Jared says you get to learn from the characters you play and the people you work with.  

Jared doesn’t care if he never wins an Oscar. He’s motivated by love in the craft of acting. “I know y’all love me and I love y’all back legitimately and I don’t care if I don’t get an Oscar or if I’m on a billboard or anything.” 

Jared: When they call “action” I’m free. I still find a freedom of expression in what I do, that’s why I keep doing it. Jared said he’s not an A-list actor. Jensen: I know you. 

Jensen says to learn as much about the technical aspect of filming as you can. He also viewed every audition as a final performance because it helped him deal with rejection. 

Fan: Sorry I’m really nervous. Jared: Don’t be nervous, you’re surrounded by family. 

Jared is removing Misha’s boot when Misha refuses to answer a question about his favorite trenchcoat lol. 

Misha talks about how Jensen gave him some hand-me-down shirts that Jensen wore a lot at cons. Jensen says it happened because he was mortified when a fan called him out on wearing the same shirt twice at a couple of different cons. So he asked Misha if he wanted any of his shirts. 

Misha said it apparently got fans talking and Jared yells in a high-pitched voice: They slept together! Jared says he wants to see “who wore it better memes” of Jensen and Misha wearing the same clothes. 

J2 talk about how Jensen shared underwear with Jared at a con before. Jensen: Where were we? Seattle. Jared: Yeah. Jensen: Did you just not have enough? Jared: Yeah... another time (to tell the story lol). Jensen to the audience: I’m sure you can figure it out! Jensen: Look, I care, I want to make sure my boys are covered! Jared: They say some people give you the shirt off their back, some people give you the *** off their ***. Jensen: The chocolate gonch. Jared whispers and laughs and Jensen falls over. 

Jared likes Sam’s red flannel. Maybe because his marker is red, or it makes up 60% of his name :P 

Jared: “I think Sam has a fondness for his red flannels!”

Jensen likes his grey flannel. 

Jensen removes his belt lol.  

Richard Ices J2. They both take a knee and drink on stage. 

Rich to Jared: “You know, you saying you’re gonna screw with us is like saying the sun rose!”

Richard apparently turned the lights off on Jensen in the bathroom earlier. When Rich left and Jensen wasn’t done lol. 

The guys are all surrounding the poor last question girl and teasing her with the mics. Boys are cracking up. 

Jared hopes s14 isn’t the last. Still feels they should go out in a blaze of glory. Jensen’s had several variations of how the show might end and none of them know how it’s going to end. Misha: Cas is gonna sacrifice himself somehow.

Jensen had a dream about the end of the show and when he shared it with Jared and Misha they both teared up. 

Jensen has told that dream many times where he’s lost his brother, he’s done with the hunting life and he doesn’t want Baby anymore because he doesn’t have Sam, so he drives off on a stranger’s motorcycle. Audience: NOOOO. Jensen: You can’t control my dreams!

J2M putting their random clothing items back on. Jared helps with Misha’s shoe lol. 

At some point earlier in the panel Misha leaned on Jared’s shoulder right in his face and Jared was just like “Hi!” :) 

Jared Iced Rob. Jensen tries to Ice Richard, but Richard jumps out of the way successfully.

Panel ends with the usual J2 fist bumps!  

Info via: Maisie, Jenn, Kelli, Bubbs, Natasha, Stevie, Sil’s livetweet list

[apple-pie-totally-worth-it]

J2M SPN UK 2018 Panel

At the start of the J2M panel, they made Misha introduce J2 and Jensen is laughing at him lol.

They gave Misha a short chair like at SDCC next to Jared (they changed it back right after lol). Jensen: “Ah, it’s the little things.”

Misha “What’s your normal routine up here… do you guys do acrobatics?”

Jared explains to Misha that they play strip question on stage. If you get the question wrong, you have to take off an article of clothing.

Jared: “I guess my dream job has always been no job… but I would have liked to have been a teacher!” Jensen to Jared: “I learn from you daily, you are a teacher!” Jared put his head on Jensen’s shoulder :)

Jensen: “Sometimes I feel like the right answer would be a Chippendales dancer!”

Misha: “I thought I was gonna be a politician when I grew up!”

Wrong answer: Misha strips off his jacket lol.

Jared: “Jet lag has not been nice to Mr. Misha.”

Jensen earlier about J2M trio op: “We’re doing a crossover. Jensen, Jared & Gollum.” Jared to Misha: “Had I known you looked like this, I wouldn’t have taken a shower.”

Jensen: “There’s another crossover photo later. Supernatural and The Walking Dead.”

J2M just got offered food and now they’re totally fighting over those gummy bears.

Jared nudging Misha to grab gummy bears from a fan: “Misha, Scooby dooby doo!”

Mishalecki are fighting over Misha’s jacket

Jensen: “Jared keeps translating English to English, but he breaks it up and it’s actually worse!”

Jared got the question wrong so he strips and now Jared’s jacket is off!

Jensen would consider a Supernatural tattoo after the show ends because it’s a huge part of his life.

Jensen and Jared both say they would consider getting an SPN tattoo after the show ends.

Jensen took a picture of Jared stripping.

Misha: I wish I’d worn my good socks today. Jared: I’m surprised you have socks on! Jensen, cracking up: Things are looking up Mish, you left the house with socks on!

J2M trying to stump the fans to get the audience to strip.

Fan asks if when Dean and Cas do intense stares if it’s written in the script. Jensen says yes, that in the script it’ll be like a serious moment and then it will say “eye f-u-c-k.” They explain that in general all staring scenes between characters are written like that lol. They say that there’ll be a scene where everyone is eye-fucking. They mention another example in a recent episode between Rich and a female character (I’m assuming the Gabriel and Rowena scene from the last ep lol).

If they could go back & further explore a storyline? Jensen: Demon Dean & purgatory. Jared: Soulless Sam and Sully. Misha: Human Cas & a new storyline with “cool Cas.”  

Misha’s sock is off.

Misha: “I’m wearing one shoe and no sock… this is starting to feel like a walk of shame right now!”

Jensen on his cell phone contact that’s famous and is not from SPN is Corey Taylor. Jared’s is JJ from Kaleo, and Misha’s is the Queen lol.  

Misha is happy about his two degrees of separation to Neil Gaiman on Twitter through Kim.

Fan: If your character could swap character arcs who would you swap with? Jared: You know what, I’m gonna say it. I wouldn’t fuckin’ change it. “Sam’s my boy, I wouldn’t change anything.”

Jensen would have swapped with the storyline with Gabriel when he went to Monaco. Jared whispers in Jensen’s ear. Jensen: or Monte Carlo. Jensen loses his overshirt lol.

Misha: I’m hard on Cas. Jared: Woah!!

Jensen Iced Misha (for those who don’t know, Icing someone means the person has to drink a little bottle of Smirnoff Ice - a brand of vodka - while kneeling down on one knee lol).  

Misha refuses to drink it on stage so he goes backstage and Jared follows, giving a play by play of Misha drinking the Smirnoff with plenty of innuendos, cracking Jensen up who stayed on stage.

Misha: “I’m not agreeing to a trio panel again!”

Fan asks if after seeing Jack use his powers without being evil, do you think it’s changed Sam’s perception of his own powers? Jared says that Sam took Jack under his wing and so far, he thinks it’s been successful that Jack hasn’t turned evil and feels reassured about his own.

Jared took his shoe off. “There, I lost my shoe.”

Jared: “When you sweat in the snow you get used to sweat proof socks!”

Asked about important changes SPN gave them. Jared: I met the mother of my children on the show and a couple of my best friends! Jensen *points to self* Jared nods and puts his head on Jensen’s shoulder and Jensen touches his head <3

Jensen says he has a lot of relationships now and the show made it so he can live and raise a family where he wants.

Misha: Having families. The only reason why my wife has sex with me is that I’m on the show lmao.

Fan asks about the boys going on a hunt in Amsterdam. Jared says he wants to go to Anne Frank’s house and dig up some Nazi ghosts and kill them! Jensen: I killed Hitler.

Jensen says that in Amsterdam Dean would get lost in the red light district, Cas would be stoned in a cafe somewhere, and Sam would be on an architectural tour.

Misha gets called out on his old answer last year & has to take off his belt.

Fan: I have ten princess dresses. Jared, pointing at Jensen: So does he!

Jared: Come on Misha get it right. I don’t want to see you naked. Again. Jensen: Today.    

Who would you meet and pay an autograph for? Jared: I paid for Richard Kiel’s autograph. Jensen: Robert Plant. Misha: Bob Garfield. Jared also mentions that he would have loved to meet Carrie Fisher.

Fan: I’ve been watching you since I was two. I’m 16 now. J2M are devastated lol.

Fan: So in your group, is there a mother hen figure who stops you from getting into trouble? J2M in unison: NOPE. Jensen: “The problem is, we don’t have one!”

Jared: “You know when they say the inmates are running the asylum? That’s us."

Jared: “I still find a freedom and a source of creativity in what I do.” Jared says you get to learn from the characters you play and the people you work with.  

Jared doesn’t care if he never wins an Oscar. He’s motivated by love in the craft of acting. “I know y’all love me and I love y’all back legitimately and I don’t care if I don’t get an Oscar or if I’m on a billboard or anything.”

Jared: When they call “action” I’m free. I still find a freedom of expression in what I do, that’s why I keep doing it. Jared said he’s not an A-list actor. Jensen: I know you.

Jensen says to learn as much about the technical aspect of filming as you can. He also viewed every audition as a final performance because it helped him deal with rejection.

Fan: Sorry I’m really nervous. Jared: Don’t be nervous, you’re surrounded by family.

Jared is removing Misha’s boot when Misha refuses to answer a question about his favorite trenchcoat lol.

Misha talks about how Jensen gave him some hand-me-down shirts that Jensen wore a lot at cons. Jensen says it happened because he was mortified when a fan called him out on wearing the same shirt twice at a couple of different cons. So he asked Misha if he wanted any of his shirts.

Misha said it apparently got fans talking and Jared yells in a high-pitched voice: They slept together! Jared says he wants to see “who wore it better memes” of Jensen and Misha wearing the same clothes.

J2 talk about how Jensen shared underwear with Jared at a con before. Jensen: Where were we? Seattle. Jared: Yeah. Jensen: Did you just not have enough? Jared: Yeah… another time (to tell the story lol). Jensen to the audience: I’m sure you can figure it out! Jensen: Look, I care, I want to make sure my boys are covered! Jared: They say some people give you the shirt off their back, some people give you the *** off their ***. Jensen: The chocolate gonch. Jared whispers and laughs and Jensen falls over.

Jared likes Sam’s red flannel. Maybe because his marker is red, or it makes up 60% of his name :P

Jared: “I think Sam has a fondness for his red flannels!”

Jensen likes his grey flannel.

Jensen removes his belt lol.  

Richard Ices J2. They both take a knee and drink on stage.

Rich to Jared: “You know, you saying you’re gonna screw with us is like saying the sun rose!”

Richard apparently turned the lights off on Jensen in the bathroom earlier. When Rich left and Jensen wasn’t done lol.

The guys are all surrounding the poor last question girl and teasing her with the mics. Boys are cracking up.

Jared hopes s14 isn’t the last. Still feels they should go out in a blaze of glory. Jensen’s had several variations of how the show might end and none of them know how it’s going to end. Misha: Cas is gonna sacrifice himself somehow.

Jensen had a dream about the end of the show and when he shared it with Jared and Misha they both teared up.

Jensen has told that dream many times where he’s lost his brother, he’s done with the hunting life and he doesn’t want Baby anymore because he doesn’t have Sam, so he drives off on a stranger’s motorcycle. Audience: NOOOO. Jensen: You can’t control my dreams!

J2M putting their random clothing items back on. Jared helps with Misha’s shoe lol.

At some point earlier in the panel Misha leaned on Jared’s shoulder right in his face and Jared was just like “Hi!” :)

Jared Iced Rob. Jensen tries to Ice Richard, but Richard jumps out of the way successfully.

Panel ends with the usual J2 fist bumps!  

[michaelcosio]

Anyone remember this?

It was displayed proudly on my Monte Carlo

(Source: Kim Schuepbach Murphy)

[zhantesblog]

4)PATAGONIA

Image sourced:https://hypebeast.com/2019/9/patagonia-fights-amazon-resellers-lawsuit

Yvon Chouinard built a clothing empire through his love for the environment and a passion for crafting quality goods that enhance humanity’s relationship with it. The biggest part of Patagonia’s legacy is not just created via its clothing, but its entire brand philosophy.

“No young kid growing up ever dreams of someday becoming a businessman...The Koch brothers and Donald Trumps of the business world are heroes to no one except other businessmen with similar values. I wanted to be a fur trapper when I grew up.” writes Patagonia founder Yvon Chouinard in his autobiography, Let My People Go Surfing: The Education of a Reluctant Businessman. 

Image sourced: https://www.patagonia.com/stories/whats-at-stake-is-the-future-of-humankind/story-72130.html

This era saw the beginnings of Patagonia, known more for its clothing and gear. The first apparel pieces Chouinard sold were rugby shirts, which he discovered in Scotland and from there, began to import them. He was very fond of the heavyweight fabric and believed that it was durable to climb in, breathed better than the average Oxford shirt and found that the collar was useful for preventing waist pack sling from digging into the neck. The demand was so high that Chouinard decided to start making his own apparel and continues to make rugby shirts today. In 1973, Patagonia was established in the back of a meatpacking factory in Ventura, California, where the company headquarters still remain.

Patagonia’s name originated from the mountainous region in South America, which holds the southern section of the Andes mountains. The logo is inspired by the oscillating peaks of Monte Fitz Roy, which remains one of the toughest mountains to climb — though Chouinard managed to ascend it in 1968, which was documented in the film Fitzroy.

Similar to The North Face’s homage to Yosemite and El Capitan, Patagonia’s branding is meant to reflect the products’ ability to withstand the harshest terrains and environments. One of the first jackets the company ever published was the Pile Fleece jacket, in 1977, which took inspiration from the hardy gear of fishermen. 

In the ’80s, Patagonia began to explore more sustainable materials and methods of production, including organic cotton, hemp, and PET. They discovered a process by which they could recycle 25 plastic bottles into one fleece product, culminating in the debut of Synchilla, one of Patagonia’s flagship materials that best represents its mission to make high-quality products with a lower environmental cost. This discovery then led them to create the Retro-X series which consisted of recycled fleece jackets and vests.

Image sourced: eu.patagonia.com

However, Patagonia’s greatest strength is informing their customers about what they’re buying into with their respectable brand transparency. Patagonia has utilised its platform to raise awareness and become an advocate for environmental issues-This extends further with The Footprint Chronicles website, books like Chouinard’s autobiography, and the tome The Responsible Company, and its catalogs and advertising campaigns.

Starting back in 1986, Patagonia has been donating 10% of its profits to grassroots organisations and In 2011, the company launched the “Common Threads” initiative, urging their consumers to send back well-worn clothing to be repaired and refurbished, following up with an ad page on Black Friday which intended to persuade people not to buy anything they don’t need. 

The “Don’t Buy This Jacket” campaign fueled consumer sentiment, and inadvertently helped Patagonia’s sales. In recent news, Patagonia has sued the Trump administration in response to a decision to shrink the Bears Ears and Grand Staircase-Escalante monuments.

Although Patagonia has never invested in any external collaborations, its consistency in focus, brand philosophy/identity, and product has created an appeal into fashion and streetwear circles.

Supreme paid homage to Patagonia’s Monte Fitz Roy logo in 1998, replacing the mountain peaks with the New York City skyline, and their fleece jackets have been referenced by the likes of Kim Jones (Louis Vuitton’s former menswear director) and menswear designer Patrik Ervell. However they would rather their lasting influence be the way they treat and advocate for the environment and its people, two things that the entire fashion industry would benefit from adopting.

Patagonia’s mission is simple. One short sentence comprehensively tells us who they are, what they are about and what they want to achieve.

Patagonia embody their mission statement throughout everything they do; through their website, their blog and their social media. A lot of their content and projects hold their mission statement at its core. It is made clear that Patagonia is passionate about what they believe in. Their mission statement is created with intent and is set as a constant reminder of the good they are doing and continuously trying to do. 

Patagonia have put their focus towards their target audience and are using their brand ambassadors as a means of audience engagement.  Patagonia is able to produce insightful and engaging content from around the world due to their large group of ambassadors with Patagonia’s blog The Cleanest Line being constantly updated.

With many companies, once you have bought their product your interaction with them is over. However, this is not the case with Patagonia.

Engaging with the audience is something Patagonia is constantly doing. This is achieved through their recycling clothing and public engagement outreach initiatives, their email newsletters and their feedback forms. This allows their customers to feel included in the process and therefore makes them more engaged with the brand overall.

Patagonia has also introduced a new initiative called Worn Wear, which allows Patagonia users to buy used clothing, repair their own damaged clothing or trade in clothing and receive credit to put toward a new or used garment.This initiative openly further demonstrates their commitment to their cause. As part of the Worn Wear campaign Patagonia has constructed a purpose-built biodiesel truck made to travel around America and repair clothes on the move. The truck was built with environmentally friendly and reusable material. This provides Patagonia with a unique sense of storytelling.

I think Patagonias message is displayed and conveyed clearly and consistently throughout their brand and marketing and promotional front. This is definitely something that I hope our brand is able to achieve throughout our production and design process. 

[aion-rsa]

Lovecraft Country Episode 6 Review: Meet Me In Daegu

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This Lovecraft Country review contains spoilers.

Lovecraft Country Episode 6

Lovecraft Country tells us magic exists, then shows us the ways it touches the lives of the characters we spend time with every week. But magic isn’t just theirs, and it doesn’t just affect them. “Meet Me in Daegu” is a fascinating exploration of the many ways magic manifests throughout the world. It expands the show’s lore by showing us one of the many forms magic can take, and is a welcome detour from the linear storytelling we’ve had so far.

This episode takes us to Daegu, South Korea in 1949, at the start of the Korean War. It follows Ji-ah, Tic’s ex-lover and the source of the cryptic warnings for him to not go home. Ji-ah is a Kumiho —similar to a Japanese Kitsune— a nine-tailed fox spirit that can be summoned in the form of a beautiful woman to avenge the wrong done by men. Ji-ah was sexually abused by her stepfather, and the Kumiho was summoned by Soon Hee (Cindy Chang), Ji-ah’s mother, to empower her to protect herself and take revenge. In order to become human again, Ji-ah has to take the souls of a hundred men.

We meet Ji-ah for the first time in Tic’s dream, as the red woman, then again as an enemy combatant in Ardham Lodge. Both of those are manifestations of Tic’s subconscious, and they tell us that she is important to him, but not how. Tic doesn’t know the real her, not fully, and up till now, she has been a bogeyman, a shadow he’s carried with him since his time in South Korea. When they first meet, Ji-ah plans to make Tic her final victim. She wants to avenge the death of her best friend Young-Ja (Prisca Kim), who is presumably interrogated then killed by American soldiers, of which Atticus is one. But they bond over a shared love of fiction and fall in love. Ji-ah escapes into film like Tic escapes into books, and escape is what they see in each other. Escape from their pasts and the monsters they’ve become.  

This episode examines what it means to be a monster. Ji-ah takes men’s souls, but she doesn’t relish the killing. The violence she enacts is the cost for being in this world, a price she pays, even if she didn’t ask to be here. Tic volunteered for the military, to escape from the violence of his upbringing. But in doing so, he made himself an instrument of violence. Both of these people are capable of monstrous things, but in being with one another, they prove they are capable of love, too. This episode is also about the lengths parents will go to to protect their children. Soon Hee summons the Kumiho out of a desire to protect her daughter. Similar to Montrose, who does everything he feels is necessary to protect Tic. Both parents are operating from a place of love, but it is a love soured by trauma, guilt, and fear.

I am not qualified to say whether this is a positive depiction of Korean culture, or an acceptable take on this specific Korean lore. But I appreciate that the first 26 minutes is entirely in Korean, and that Ji-ah is the central figure of the story, even as Tic becomes more present in it. She is important to the narrative because of her relationship to Tic, but we are allowed to get to know her, independent of him. It is that kind of focus on character that keeps us invested in this story, even as the circumstances get more dire and more bizarre.

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And bizarre is par for the course. When Ji-ah brings a man home for the first time in the episode, they have sex, and hairy, tentacle-like tails emerge from all of her orifices to skewer him. She sees his entire life flash before her, then he dissolves into a puddle of blood. That is her power. When she brings Tic home for the first time, she plans to do the same to him. But her feelings for him give her pause, and she runs him off. “You murdered my best friend and you saved me, I think…” is how she later explains herself to Tic. When they do have sex, his first time, she makes a specific point to control herself. This proves to her that she can choose not to be a monster.

When Ji-ah and Tic have sex again, she loses control of her tails, and she begins to absorb Tic. She manages to stop herself from killing him, but sees his entire life and his death—not by her hands, and tries to warn him. Lovecraft Country loves a tentacle, and Ji-ah’s Kumiho tails truly exemplify this. The tails emerge from her groin, her eyes, ears, and finally her mouth, transforming someone beautiful into something grotesque. This is Tic’s first experience with magic, and it’s mired in fear. Had he not run, had he really listened to the story of the Kumiho, had he headed her warning to not go home, had he believed in her… Tic’s rejection of Ji-ah is a defining moment in his life and his journey into the magical world.

cnx.cmd.push(function() { cnx({ playerId: "106e33c0-3911-473c-b599-b1426db57530", }).render("0270c398a82f44f49c23c16122516796"); });

Each episode of Lovecraft Country packs in so much information, that it is sometimes difficult to grasp everything, which is both wonderful and frustrating. You are rewarded by revisiting episodes with new information or better context, which keeps the show dynamic. “Meet Me in Daegu” is a refreshingly straightforward story that succeeds in expanding the show’s lore and providing a deeper understanding of who Tic is. We’ve seen a copy of The Count of Monte Cristo by Alexandre Dumas several times now, and this episode gives us context to the books’ meaning for Tic and Montrose, in particular, and its parallels to their story within this show.

In my review of last week’s episode, I expressed hope that Ji-ah’s “formal introduction to the story broadens the magical world even further,” and this episode satisfies. Lovecraft Country has crafted an intriguing story with more hits than misses, and my expectations remain high that the season can deliver on all of its promise.

The post Lovecraft Country Episode 6 Review: Meet Me In Daegu appeared first on Den of Geek.

from Den of Geek https://ift.tt/2FKXM6A

[olivierdemangeon]

  Un ancien champion de bowling, retiré des compétitions suite à un accident de voiture, vit de petites magouilles. Il va rencontrer un autiste amateur de ce même sport, ayant un énorme potentiel…

    “Suepeullit” (스플릿), ou “Split” pour la distribution internationale, est une comédie dramatique sud-coréenne datant de 2016, écrite et réalisée par Choi Kook-hee, à qui l’on doit également “Default” (2018). Les acteurs principaux sont Yoo Ji-tae, qu’on a pu voir dans “The Swindlers” (2017), Lee Jung-hyun, qu’on a pu voir dans “The Battleship Island” (2017), Lee David, qu’on a pu voir dans “The Fortress” (2017), Jung Sung-hwa, qu’on a pu voir dans “The Long Way Home” (2015), et Kwon Hae-hyo, qu’on a pu voir dans “Don’t Forget Me” (2016). Ce métrage est paru le 9 novembre 2016 en Corée du Sud.

L’histoire proposée par “Split” nous invite à suivre Yoon Cheol-jong (Yoo Ji-tae), un ancien champion de bowling. En compagnie de Joo Hee-jin (Lee Jung-hyun), il participe à des matchs de bowling en se laissant battre dans les premières parties pour faire monter les paris et ensuite jouer à son juste niveau et remporter des grosses sommes d’argent. Ces petites magouilles ont pour but de permettre à Hee-jin de rembourser ses dettes et ainsi garder la petite salle de bowling qu’elle a hérité de son père. Cheol-jong se fait embaucher dans une salle de bowling grand public pour arrondir ses fins de mois. Il y rencontre Park Young-hoon (Lee David), un jeune homme autiste qui semble avoir des prédispositions avancées pour ce sport. Il décide de le prendre sous son aile et fait équipe avec lui pour de nouvelles parties monnayées…

Le scénario concocté par Choi Kook-hee, qui endosse ici la double casquette de scénariste et de réalisateur, nous invite dans le monde du bowling à travers un récit très original. Bien entendu, il y a le côté sportif avec de superbes visuels des parties de bowling à proprement parlé. Dans ce film, on retrouve également plusieurs éléments dramatiques. Cheol-jong, suite à un accident de voiture, a partiellement perdu l’usage de sa jambe droite et doit garder en permanence une prothèse à cadre pour lui permettre d’avoir l’articulation du genou stabilisée. Dans ce même accident, sa compagne a perdu la vie, emportant avec elle l’enfant qu’elle portait. La prothèse qu’il doit ajuster tous les jours vient lui rappeler quotidiennement ces pertes douloureuses. Il culpabilise fortement, car c’est lui qui était au volant lors de l’accident. La tragédie vient également du statut d’handicapé du jeune Young-hoon. Autiste, il est régulièrement moqué et même malmené et brutalisé, tant par ses parents que par ses éducateurs dans l’établissement qui l’accueille. Enfin, on trouve une sous-intrigue concernant Hee-jin. La jeune femme cherche à conserver sa salle de bowling. Pour se faire, elle doit régler au plus vite une grosse somme d’argent à un usurier peu scrupuleux.

D’une durée de 116 minutes, “Split” offre différentes scènes dynamiques, et notamment par l’intermédiaire des affrontements au bowling. On monte progressivement en pression avec des adversaires de plus en plus coriaces et des difficultés liées aux différentes personnalités et à leurs problèmes psychologiques. Le caractère spécifique de Young-hoon est développé graduellement à travers quelques flashbacks dévoilant son parcours et finalement, la source de sa motivation, de son inspiration. Le nœud de l’histoire tient dans une confrontation entre Young-hoon et ‘Toad’ Doo Joong-oh (Jung Sung-hwa). Ce dernier tient rancune à l’ancien champion suite à une confrontation lors d’une compétition nationale passée. Le film se termine avec le couronnement du jeune Young-hoon dans la joie, entouré des gens qui l’aiment.

Les valeurs de productions sont vraiment très bonnes. La photographie délivrée par Baek Yoon-seuk est remarquable avec de superbes visuelles lors des matchs de bowling où les différents protagonistes enchaînent les strikes les uns derrière les autres. Des plans originaux, des suivis de trajectoire des boules, les quilles qui s’entrechoquent, etc. On peut également mesurer le niveau social assez modeste des personnages principaux à travers des décors équivoques. La bande musicale orchestrée par Choi Yong-rak est tout à fait sympathique, avec de belles compositions pour meubler les confrontations, les compétitions. Enfin, l’édition présentée par Kim Sun-min est pleinement équilibrée, partageant le récit entre le développement des personnages, les éléments de tragédie, les conflits, les altercations et les joutes sportives.

En conclusion, “Split” est une comédie dramatique fascinante disposant d’une histoire plaisante, d’une intrigue originale et d’un développement réfléchi. Le rythme est tempéré, le récit est fluide et la narration fait appel à quelques flashbacks. La photographie est distrayante avec une belle mise en images des confrontations sportives, la bande originale est sympathique et l’édition est bien équilibrée. La distribution offre de très bonnes prestations avec une superbe performance de Lee David dans un rôle délicat, mais pleinement maîtrisé. Un film divertissant, drôle par endroits, tragique ) d’autres moments, mais réellement distrayant dans l’ensemble. À voir…

      Retrouvez-nous sur notre groupe de discussion Facebook !

    SPLIT (2016) ★★★★☆ Un ancien champion de bowling, retiré des compétitions suite à un accident de voiture, vit de petites magouilles.

[serenavangstuff]

Juniper Publishers-Common Method Variance: Statistical Detection and Control

Abstract

Common Method Variance (CMV) may arise from monomethod measurement of both exogenous and endogenous variables. It has caused concerns about its effects on causal inferences. One way to partition out CMV is specifying a method factor measured by indicators of both the exogenous and endogenous variables in a model. This method is known as Common Method Factor Modeling (CMFM). However, it remained unclear what to expect when CMFM is applied to data with unknown  magnitude of CMV, whether the method factor loadings should be estimated freely or with equality constraints, and whether model comparison was viable for detecting CMV. The results of three simulation studies have demonstrated the limitations of detecting CMV with model comparisons, the advantages of power analysis applied to empirical data and Bayesian estimation of CMFM. Specifically, model comparisons usually fail the estimation with misspecified CMFM in small samples; Power analyses through simulating several sample sizes could better determine whether CMFM has been misspecified or CMV may not be detected due to lack of power. Bayesian estimation of CMFM has hardly any convergence problem and best priors may be determined by comparing Deviance Information Criterion (DIC).

Keywords: Common Method Variance, Model Misspecification, Statistical Control, Bayesian Estimation, Monte Carlo Simulation

Abbreviations: CMV: Common Method Variance; DIC: Deviance Information Criterion; EFA Exploratory Factor; CMFM: Analysis Common Method Factor Modeling; BIC: Bayesian Information Criteria; GLM: General Linear Model; WLSMV: Weighted Least Squares Estimator With Chi- Square And Degrees Of Freedom Adjusted For Means And Variances; IG: Inverse Gama

Introduction

Common Or Shared Method Variance (CMV) can stem from a monomethod measurement of both the exogenous and endogenous variables Campbell & Fiske [1]. The literature documents controversies on CMV's effects on relations of substantive constructs. One argument is that CMV is endemic in monomethod measurement and inflates estimates of causal relations to varying degrees Dotty & Glick [2,3], as has been found across multiple disciplines Cote & Buckley [4]. As a result, research findings that relied on monomethod measurement, especially self-reports Chan [5], could be discredited to some extent for possible CMV effects (Brannick, et al.; Chang; Witteloostuijn; Pace [6-8] The counter argument is that CMV is an "exaggerated urban legend" Spector [9]. It is not the shared method per se but other sources of biases that may distort the relations of substantive constructs. In support of this view, CMV has been detected in only a small number of studies in which it could be verified with multimethod measurement Spector; Spector & Brannick [10,11]. Because the presence and degree of CMV is generally unknown in empirical data collected with monomethod measurement, and in light of the ongoing controversies regarding CMV's effects, critical questions arise concerning how to detect CMV's presence and control for its confounding effect. The current study aims to explore the possibility to power analysis through simulation to detect CMV and CMFM with Bayesian estimations to control CMV. The paper is organized as follows. We begin with a brief review of possible sources of CMV and non-statistical controls, then describe relevant issues of statistical control, and demonstrate power analysis to detect CMV and Bayesian estimation as a more effective statistical control.

CMV Sources and Procedural Control

CMV may come from various potential sources, which make procedural controls difficult. Identified sources include rater effects (e.g., social desirability in self-reports, rater bias), item characteristic effects (e.g., ambiguity of content, common format), context of items (e.g., priming effects, item-induced mood, scale length), and context of measurement (e.g., temporal and spatial proximity of both the exogenous and endogenous variables; Podsakoff, Mackenzie, Lee, & Podsakoff [12]. Essentially, CMV represents certain systematic contaminants of the measurements that may be linked to any identified source, although not necessarily to a particular method Lance, Baranick, Lau, Scharlau [13]. Procedural control is generally used to prevent a known contaminant from affecting the measurement process through a deliberate design of the measurement setting and instruments. The multitude of potential sources of CMV and unpredictability of any specific source may hinder procedural controls prior to and during the course of measurement. Statistical control thus becomes useful when a proposed substantive model is thought to be affected by a source of CMV that has not been procedurally controlled.

Statistical Control

Statistical control is accomplished by incorporating a covariate or specifying a method factor in a model to partition out CMV. The covariate is expected to be theoretically unrelated to the substantive constructs Lindell & Whitne [14], and also "capturing or tapping into one or more of the sources of bias that can occur in the measurement context for substantive variables being examined, given a model of the survey response process" (Williams, Hartman, Cavazotte [15]. When the source of CMV is unknown, a method factor may be specified as measured by indicators of both the exogenous and endogenous substantive constructs (Figure 1). This method factor is not correlated with any other observed or latent variables (orthogonal). This approach has been referred to as unmeasured latent method factor modeling Podsakoff, et al. [12].

ULMF may be taken as a special case of multitrait- multimethod measurement that involves only one method Eid, Nussbeck, et al. [16]. The notion of specifying a latent factor to extract a common variance from different measures also can be seen in a trait-state-error model, in which a trait factor is reflected by indicators of a state factor over time Kenny, Zautra [17], and in a trait-state-occasion model where a trait factor is reflected by the state factors Cole, Martin, Steiger [18]. Conceptually, ULMF appears to be a feasible approach.

CMV may stem from a known source like social desirability, a latent factor that can be measured with its own indicators. Such a latent factor can affect the measurement of both the exogenous and endogenous substantive constructs (Figure 2), causing some CMV. Specifying a model like this to control CMV has been referred to as measured latent method factor modeling Podsakoff, et al. [12] and used in a number of studies Richardson, Simmering, Sturman [19]; Williams, et al. [10]. In the remainder of this article, the ULMF and MLMF are referred to as Common Method Factor Modeling (CMFM), a term attributable to Lindell [14]. (Figures 1 & 2)

Unresolved Issues of Statistical Control

A number of problems exist in the application and performance of statistical control with CMFM. One issue involves imposing equality constraints on the method factor loadings, resulting in equal effects of CMV Williams, Anderson [20]. This practice is based on the assumption that the source of CMV has equal effects on both the exogenous and endogenous constructs Lindell & Whitney [14]. Theoretical justifications for weighting CMV effects equally can be traced back to two statistical theorems. Wainer [21] showed that an equally weighted composite score was as robust as unequally weighted scores in predicting a criterion variable, which appears to be true under limited conditions Raju, Bilgic, Edwards, Fleer [22]; Yang, Nay, Hoyle [23]. The other theorem showed that equal weighting did not affect rankings of individual products (Ree, Carretta, Earles [24]. These theorems might not strictly apply to statistical control of CMV because equal weighting is intended neither to create a composite measure for prediction nor to rank individuals for selection. Nevertheless, the practical advantage of imposing equality constraints on CMV effects is to eliminate the problem of under-identification. In contrast, a congeneric model perspective does not impose equality constraints, allowing the effects of CMV to vary with raters, items, constructs, and contexts (Richardson, et al., 2009). This perspective has been adopted in some studies (Rafferty & Griffin [25]; Williams & Anderson [21]; Williams, et al. [15]. Indeed, without any underidentification problem, imposing equality constraints implies essentially tau-equivalent measurement of the method  factor and may be unnecessarily restrictive for a model with multiple indicators of each substantive construct. In general, both equal and congeneric effects of CMV appear to be possible in empirical data. It is unknown which perspective best reflects the model of a particular empirical dataset. If the common method factor does have differential effects, the extent to which imposing equality constraints biases the model parameter estimates is unknown Lindell, Whitney [14].

The second issue involves the efficacy of the statistical control through CMFM. CMFM is rooted in Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) in which a model of a single method factor reflected by all the items is typically compared with a multiple- substantive-factors model using the Harman's Single Factor Test Podsakoff, Organ [26]. This test has been used to compare a single factor structure to a multiple factors structure in terms of the total variance explained. It has been evaluated as insensitive when CMV is small Kemery, Dunlap [27], Podsakoff, Todor [28]. Alternatively, the purported method effect might reflect the true covariance between the exogenous and endogenous constructs Podsakoff, et al. [12]. Derived from an EFA, the CMFM approach is occasionally equated to the EFA approach and thus viewed as unreliable Malhotra, Kim, Patil [29]. Such a critique warrants further examination, as the SEM approach differs from its prototype (EFA) and is expected to capture existing CMV like other parameters. However, capturing a small CMV requires that the model is correctly specified and the sample size is large enough for sufficient power. Thus, another question arises concerning how to determine whether the method factor is correctly specified and if power is sufficient to identify the CMV parameter.

Previous findings regarding the performance of CMFM have not been promising. A recent simulation study found that CMFM with an explicit CMV source factor and its own indicators performed slightly better than CMFM with a method factor measured by all the indicators of the substantive constructs Richardson, et al. [19]. However, neither of the two generally performed well in detecting and correcting CMV. As the results were reported in terms of average percentages of correctly and incorrectly detecting CMV (70% and 21%), it is not clear what to expect from CFMF with respect to model convergence, fit, and bias magnitude in parameters of different models under additional unexplored data conditions.

The third issue involves model comparisons for detecting the presence of CMV. Comparing models respectively without and with the method factor has been the standard way to detect the existence of CMV. This standard way is infeasible in some situations. In particular, CMFM can be misspecified for the data that are not contaminated by a CMV source. Given that identification conditions are met, CMFM can still have one of three undesired outcomes: non-convergence, convergence with improper solutions (unreasonable parameter estimates), or false identifications of CMV. When non convergence occurs, it is impossible to proceed with model comparison. Non convergence, however, has not been demonstrated to be a convincing indication of absent CMV in the empirical data, as remains to be confirmed.

Model comparison with a chi-square difference test, however, is not without its own issues. It has been found to be highly sensitive to minor model differences with large sample sizes (Meade, Lautenschlager [30]) and could be affected by the strengths of parameters other than CMV Saris, Satorra, van der Veld [31]. Small misspecification at a large sample size may be detected, while large misspecification at a small sample size may be undetected Kaplan [32]. In addition, misspecifications are more likely to be detected with a chi-square difference test when measurements have low reliabilities as compared to higher reliabilities Miles, Shevlin [33]. As alternatives to avoid these issues, the difference in Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) between two models has been posed where AICdif = x21 - x22- 2 (df1 - df2). Here, x21andx22 are respectively the chi-square fit indices of the two models and df1 and df2 are the corresponding degrees of freedom Kaplan [34]. In addition, the difference in the Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC) or the Adjusted BIC (ABIC) between the two models may also be used for model comparisons. A substantial difference between two models is  indicated by a BIC difference above 6 Raftery [35] or an ABIC difference above 4 Akaike [36]. The application of AIC, BIC, ABIC differences, however, are limited to maximum likelihood estimation with continuous data. Model comparisons based on other estimators involve other computations Muthén [37]; Satorra, Bentler [38]. It is unclear if these information criteria differences perform better than a chi-square difference test in identifying the true model, particularly with a large sample size. As model comparison may be impossible due to nonconvergence of a misspecified CMFM, and various difference tests are not definitively indicative of an appropriate CMFM in some situations, certain additional procedures are needed to ensure that CMFM is worth pursuing in empirical data analysis.

Detection of CMV Through Power Analysis

Power analysis through simulations may facilitate detecting misspecification of CMFM. Without sufficient power, small CMV may not be detected even in a correctly specified CMFM of a particular  dataset Kaplan [34], Saris, et al. [31]. Simulation is typically conducted by generating random datasets from a population model with known parameters, then fitting the model to these datasets using different estimation methods to evaluate the performance of each estimator in recovering the original population model parameters. Power analysis through simulation is accomplished by assessing the probability that the model can recapture the original parameters at the same sample size with the same estimation methods Muthén [37]. To apply power analysis, given that a sample has been selected from a population with suspected CMV, two models can be used to fit the data: Model H0 without the method factor and Model H1 with the method factor. Two outcomes may be expected when H0 and H1 are fit to the data. First, if H0 is the true model, H1 would be misspecified and would result in a high probability of nonconvergence, or in biased estimates in the converged models. Second, if the H1 model with CMV controlled (namely, CMFM) is the true model of a population, refitting H1 to the randomly generated datasets would result in higher rates of convergence and available power estimates Hancock [39]; Muthén, Muthén [37]. Subsequently, sample sizes can be altered to observe resulting changes in the power of all parameters. As sample sizes increases to be more representative of the population, the power of CMV can also be expected to increase. For a parameter with its population value equal to zero, the power estimate becomes the estimate of Type I error Muthén [37]. Estimating the power of models without and with the method factor using varied sample sizes, the true model thus might be more consistently identified. In addition, issues concerning model comparisons of a specific empirical dataset might be solved, including fit sensitivity to sample size and non-convergence due to misspecification¬.

Bayesian Estimation of CMFM

Within the Bayesian paradigm, each parameter of a model is viewed as a random variable with a certain distribution rather than as a constant in frequentist statistics van de Schoot, et al. [40]. Bayesian estimation has some advantages in modeling small CMV in small samples where the power to detect CMV can be low. First, it does not require large sample theory for the estimation and thus can adapt more readily to small samples Muthén, Asparouhov [41], which are likely to cause non-convergence or biased estimates with ML estimation. Second, Bayesian analysis can allow an analyst to specify known or hypothesized CMV prior distributions in order to observe how the causal relations might vary accordingly. In particular, true CMV values in empirical datasets are typically unknown, and therefore researchers can specify multiple possible priors and observe the change of DIC. As CMV has been found to range from none to 41 in several disciplines Cote, Buckley [4]; Spector [9], thus one may vary the priors accordingly. The best model from different priors can be selected with the smallest DIC. Although varied specifications of reasonable CMV priors may result in slightly different posterior parameter estimates of the focal relations Seaman III, Seaman Jr, Stamey [42], the posterior estimates may not change substantially because they also depend on the likelihood of the parameters for the specific dataset under scrutiny Kamary, Robert [43]. This study thus was also designed to explore the advantages of Bayesian estimation of CMFM, particularly when CMV is unknown in small samples.

Hypotheses

We first hypothesized that the performance of CMFM could be affected by misspecifying the method factor, imposing equality constraints on the method factor loadings, varying the reliability of measurement, and considering small sample sizes. The performance is defined as model convergence and biases in the model parameters, which are examined at different levels of the above factors, including source of CMV (none, unknown, or known), magnitude of CMV (none, small, medium, or large), reliability of measurement (low or high), sample size (small, medium, or large), and treatment of method factor loadings (freely estimate or impose equality constraints). Second, power analysis through simulating large sample sizes could facilitate detecting a misspecification of CMFM, as it relates to convergence rates, Type I errors, and power of the CMV parameter. Third, model comparison was not a viable approach to determine the presence of CMV. Last, Bayesian estimation of CMFM with hypothetical priors had much higher convergence rates and good representations of the population parameters.

We sought first to complement previous studies by adopting models with multiple latent constructs and multiple indicators and simulations to detect potential misspecification of CMV. The simulation data were generated from explicit models with all known parameters, including structural path parameters, factor loadings, and latent variable variances. A congeneric perspective of CMV effects was adopted so that the method factor loadings varied for the substantive constructs in the population models. Second, we sought to demonstrate the advantages of power analysis to detect CMV in empirical data and Bayesian estimation with a few priors.

Method

The three simulation studies were conducted to address the issues mentioned above, as are described below.

Study 1: Hypothetical Population Models and Simulated Data

Three hypothetical population models were specified for simulations. The first one was intended to examine the performance of CMFM when CMV is present in the data. Except for the method factor, this model was similar to Figure 1 and had two exogenous constructs (F1 and F2), a mediator (F3), and an endogenous construct (F4). This model was chosen to incorporate more than one exogenous construct (Muthén, 1984) and a mediating effect, whose components are commonly encountered in complicated models in the social sciences and have been advocated for simulation studies by Paxton, Curran, Bollen, Kirby, & Chen (2001). Each construct was set to have six indicators Yang, et al. [23] that are not affected by CMV (w1- w6 for F1, x1-x6 for F2, y1-y6 for F3, and z1-z6 for F4). Factor loadings (λ), residual variances (Ψ2) of the indicators, and reliability (ω) of indicators of each construct were specified based on their relations: ω = (Σλ)2 / [(Σλ)2 + ΣΨ2 ], where (Σλ)2 stands for the square of the sum of factor loadings and ΣΨ2 represents the sum of unique variances McDonald [44]. Omega is the reliability of a scale formed as the unit- weighted composite of the indicators. Reliability, defined as m throughout this report, provides another perspective to examine the measurement quality of the constructs of the simulations. The structural parameters are embedded in Figure 1 with phi = ø = .30, gamma1 = γ 1 = .40, gamma2 = γ 2 = .50, and beta = β = .60. Other parameters were specified to be equivalent to those commonly seen in empirical studies and are listed in Table 1, including factor loadings, errors variances, and reliabilities of indicators. Variances of F1 and F2 and residual variances of F3 and F4 were set at 1.0, 1.0, .60, and .40, respectively. Factor loadings of the method factor were estimated without and with equality constraints (Table 1).

The second population model was intended to examine the performance of CMFM when CMV is present in the data. This model (Figure 1) was extended from the first population model with the inclusion of an additional method factor (F5) measured by all the indicators of the substantive constructs. CMV was respectively set at .20, .33, and .50 to reflect the range of standardized CMV (.20~.50) identified in a previous study (Cote & Buckley, 1987). Factor loadings of the method factor were also estimated without and with equality constraints.

The third population model allowed us to examine the performance of CMFM when CMV has a known source. This model included six hypothetically known indicators of the method factor (v1-v6; Figure 2). The method factor loadings (1.00, .90, .85, .80, .75, and .70) and error variances (1.05, 1.05, 1.05, 1.05, 1.00 and 1.00) were set such that the reliability of the measurement was .80. Variance of this method factor was also respectively set at .20, .33, and .50. Although these known method factor loadings were freely estimated, factor loadings on the hypothetical substantive constructs (F1-F4) were estimated respectively without and with equality constraints.

Three sample sizes were chosen for random data generated from the population models (n = 300, 1200, and 5000). These sample sizes were arbitrarily chosen to represent small, moderate, and large sample size (for sufficient power) because optimal sample sizes that warrant sufficient power for model parameters also depend on distributions, missing data, reliability, and relations among variables. A large number of replications (N=1000) was chosen for each condition simulated in this study Bandalos [45].

Simulations of this study were carried out first by generating data from the three population models according to the specified conditions and then fitting a correct or misspecified model to these datasets. For datasets generated from the first population model without CMV, the misspecified models had a method factor with its loadings estimated respectively without and with equality constraints. For datasets generated from the second and third population models with CMV, the models that were fit back to these data had method factor loadings estimated without or with equality constraints. These data generating and model fitting processes were repeated for each of the three sample sizes, three levels of CMV, and two levels of reliability. The random data generation seed was altered to ensure that different datasets were produced for each condition of the study Paxton, et al. [46]. The method factor was not allowed to be correlated with F1-F4 in any of the processes.

All three simulations were carried out using the latent variable modeling program Mplus, which allows one to specify the population model, generate data, and fit a model to the data. The output also yields power associated with parameter estimates, which are interpreted as power when the true parameters are not zeros, but as Type I errors when the true parameters are zeros.

Average parameter estimates of converged models were compared with the population parameters under all conditions mentioned above. Bias in this study was defined as the difference from the true parameter, as opposed to the percentage bias ((estimate-population) / population), which can be affected by the magnitude of the population parameter. To examine the performance of CMFM under all of these conditions, a preliminary multivariate General Linear Model (GLM) was applied to these pooled estimates, with average biases in the five structural parameters as the dependent variables and two treatments of method factor loadings, sample sizes, reliabilities of measurement, and CMV as independent factors. The GLM was first applied to parameter biases weighted by the inverse variances of the corresponding parameter estimates to account for the use of summary data Marín-Martínez, Sánche-Meca [47]. Slight differences were found in multi-way interactions of these experimental factors, as compared with using the unweighted biases in the parameters as the dependent variables. As it is difficult to interpret these trivial but significant multi-way interactions, biases in parameters without any weighting were subjected to the GLM. The results and further post hoc analyses are described in the next section, with effect size designated as ES. The powers of CMV were also examined with a univariate GLM, but only estimates of data in Tables 2 & 3 with known CMV in the population were examined.

Study 2: Applications of Findings to Empirical Data Modeling

An empirical dataset was obtained from the longitudinal Fast Track project, which is a multisite, multicomponent preventive intervention for children at high risk for long-term antisocial behavior. Descriptions of this project can be found at http://sanford.duke.edu/centers/child/fasttrack/index. html. A normative sample (N=743) was selected for variables used in this study. Two exogenous constructs were selected: parental involvement and volunteering when the child was in grade 6. Two mediating constructs were included: mother-child communication and mother's monitoring of child's negative peer influence when the child was in grade 8. Child delinquency in grade 11 was selected as the endogenous variable. The causal mechanism was assumed as follows: Mother's involvement and volunteering at school at an earlier grade would sensitize and sustain their attentiveness to their children's school performances, and would thereby affect later parental-child communication. Good parent-child communication would help children learn social rules, values, and knowledge and help mothers stay informed about their child's social and academic activities in and out of schools. Related to this communication process is mother's monitoring and buffering of negative peer influences. The communication and monitoring have been theorized to reduce adolescent delinquency Nash, McQueen, Bray [48].

Exogenous Constructs at grade 6: Empirical Constructs were measured with the following scales. Maternal involvement and volunteering at school were measured using the self-rated frequency of the following ten behaviors (with standardized factor loadings in parentheses): stopped to talk to teacher (.57), invited to school for special event (.75), visited school on special event (.83), attended parent-teacher conference(.61), attended Parent-Teacher Association meetings (.72), sent things to class (e.g., books) (.54), read to your child (.40), took child to library (.50), played games at home with child (.25), and volunteered at child's school (.58). The scale had five rating categories (0 = no involvement and4 = high) and a reliability of .84.

Mediating constructs at grade 8 Parent-child communication was measured using mother’s-rating of the following six behaviors with standardized factor loadings in parentheses: discussed beliefs without embarrassment (.60), parent was satisfied with communication (.72), discussed child problems with child (.52), told child how parent really felt (.67), encouraged child to form own opinion (.58), and achieved solutions in problem discussions (.81). The scale had five rating categories (1 = almost never... 5 = almost always) and a reliability of .82.

Parental concern of child negative peer influence was measured with mother’s rating on how often their child’s three friends did the following: got into trouble with police, did things parent disapproved of, and was concerned about negative influence. Standardized factor loadings of the three items were .90, .93, and .92 for the best friend; .89, .91, and .90 for the second best friend; and .92, .93, and .92 for a third best friend. This scale had four rating categories (1= very much and 4 = not at all) and reliabilities of .94, .93, and .95 respectively for each friend.

Outcome constructs at Grade 11 Child delinquency at grade 11 was measured using mother's rating of how often the target child did the following eleven behaviors with standardized factor loadings in parentheses: drank alcohol beyond a few sips (.75), has been drunk in a public place (.88), used illegal drugs such as heroin, crack, cocaine, or LSD (Lysergic acid diethylamide; .72), sold illegal drugs (.84), stolen or tried to steal something worth more than $50 (.76), attacked someone with a weapon with the idea of seriously hurting them (.78), taken some money at home that did not belong to them without asking (.52), been suspended or expelled for bad behavior at school (.66), been in trouble with the police for something he or she did (.81), run away from home (.71), and carried a weapon (.71). This scale had three rating categories (from 0= not true to 2 = very true) and a reliability of .93.

CMV could be suspected due to monomethod measurement of these constructs (the mother’s report or rating). It would be especially helpful to address concerns about CMV in the empirical data. However, a CMV effect might not be found due to temporal separation between the three measurement periods and nonoverlapping items. To test the presence of CMV, a common method factor measured by indicators of the four substantive constructs was specified in the model. Factor loadings of this method factor were estimated respectively without and with equality constraints.

The empirical data were modeled in the following steps. First, the hypothetical model was estimated without a method factor, which served as a reference model. Next, the model was specified to have a method factor reflected by all indicators of the four substantive factors, and estimated without and with equality constraints on method factor loadings. The latter two models were compared with the reference model through a chi-square difference test based on Weighted Least Squares Estimator with Chi-Square and Degrees Of Freedom Adjusted for Means and Variances (WLSMV). This estimator was found to perform relatively well with categorical indicators at various sample sizes Beauducel, Herzberg [49]. Following these steps, each model was simulated to estimate powers of the parameters at the original and doubled sample sizes.

Model Comparisons

Chi-square difference tests and information criteria comparisons were conducted to distinguish the true model (with freely estimated method factor loadings) from a misspecified one (with equality constraints imposed on method factor loadings). Data conditions were chosen such that the smallest CMV stemmed from a known construct with indicators at the largest sample size and lower reliability. This is a situation where a chi- square difference test is expected to perform sensitively and can be meaningfully compared with AIC, BIC, and ABIC differences. Model comparison was conducted only third population (Figure 2) and the model for empirical data.

Study 3: Bayesian Estimation of CMFM with Small Samples:

For the simulation with Bayesian estimation, the two population models (without and with a method factor, see Figure 1) were used to generate one thousand continuous datasets of sample size (n = 150), respectively. CMV for the second population model (Figure 1) was specified at a magnitude of .20. The CMFM was estimated respectively without informative prior distributions of the parameters, with informative priors on the factor loadings, structural parameters, variances and covariance on the two exogenous constructs (F1 and F2).

Prior distributions for the model were specified as follows. Priors for the factor loadings and structural regression parameters were specified as normally distributed with their means equal to the population model parameters and a variance 30 for each. The variance ofthe method factor has an Inverse Gama (IG) distribution with two positive parameters that respectively defines the shape (α) and scale (β) of the probability density function. The expected mean and variance of this distribution are respectively with restrictions that α is greater than 1 for the mean and greater than 2 for the variance. To translate a prior CMV information into α and β parameters of an IG distribution, we can rearrange the above equations, so that , as suggested by Cowles [50]. For instance, if a small prior of mean E = .10 and variance V = .20, then the shape parameter α= 2.05 and scale parameter β = .10; If a moderate prior of mean E = .30 and variance V = .30, then the shape parameter α = 2.30 and scale parameter β = .39. The variance and covariance of F1 and F2 has an Inverse Wishart distribution - IW (sigma, df ), where , sigma = v * (2p + 2) v = known or expected variance or covariance, p = the number of variables of variance and covariance matrix of sigma, and df = p + 2 . More details on translating certain variances and covariances into IW priors have been described by Muthén & Asparouhov [41] and discussed on http://www.statmodel. com/discussion/messages/9/6256.html#POST111957. Priors for the error variances were not specified, but relied on the ML estimates.

Results

The results of the study include the following five parts: first, performance of CMFM under specific conditions; second, biases in the structural parameters; third, power analysis of CMFM; fourth, CMFM of empirical data; and fifth, Bayesian Estimates of the CMFM. Biases in five structural parameters ( γ 1, γ 2, β, ø, and CMV), standard deviations of the estimates under each condition, and powers of the main structural parameters and percentage of convergence for the simulated models are listed in Table 2-4. Bayesian estimates are listed in Table 5.

Performance of CMFM under Non-existent CMV

Table 2 (left half) shows two patterns emerged from the simulations when the CMFM with method factor loadings freely estimated was misspecified for dataset generated from a model without CMV. First, as shown by the convergence rates, about 50% of the models did not converge to yield any parameter estimates. Second, biases in the parameters revealed that converged models overestimated CMV but underestimated other structural parameters. Table 2 (right half) also shows that imposing equality constraints on the method factor loadings increased model convergence rates but underestimated Type I errors of CMV, leading to greater chances of falsely identifying CMV. Specifically, in the absence of CMV, there were higher chances of model convergence (76.1% ~ 92.0%) when method factor loadings were constrained to be equal than when they were freely estimated (49.0% ~ 52.7%), as indicated by a two- sample proportion test (z = 12.99 ~ 23.51, p < .01). Although larger biases in CMV were found in the former condition (range = .11~ .17) than in the latter condition (range = -.01~.05; z = 2.56 ~ 12.35, p < .05). Type I errors below .05 implied the absence of CMV.

Performance of CMFM under Three Levels of CMV with Unknown Source

In the presence of CMV from an unknown source, convergence rates (see Table 3) were also lower at small or moderate sample sizes when method factor loadings were freely estimated (52.1% ~ 98.7%) than when they were estimating with equality constraints (83.1% ~ 100%; z = 3.63 ~ 27.33, p < .01). Biases in the CMV were also smaller under the former condition (range = - .08 ~ .03) than under the latter condition (range=.04 ~ .12; z = 3.90 ~ 54.21, p < .01).

Performance of CMFM under Three Levels of CMV with Known Source

When CMV from a known source was present, a similar pattern of results emerged (see Table 4). Biases in the CMV were small but also significant between the two treatments of method factor loadings (range = .00 ~ .07; z = 1.79 ~ 78.26, p < .06). Over 99.9% of the models converged under both conditions. When the method factor loadings were allowed to be freely estimated and the power of CMV was over. 45, average biases in the focal structural parameters were under. 10.

Overall Biases in Other Structural Parameters of CMFM

The multivariate GLM of pooled estimates revealed that different treatment of the method factor loadings had the strongest effects on biases in the structural parameter (γ 1, γ 2, β, ø, and CMV) estimates (F(5,58) = 35.58, p < .01, ES = .75). However, these effects also depended on the source of CMV (F(5,58) = 14.03, p < .01, ES = .54), the reliability of measurement (F(5,58) = 4.38, p < .01, ES = .27), the magnitude of CMV (F(10,116) = 2.70, p < .01, ES = .19), and the sample size (F(10,96) = 2.92, p < .01, ES = .20). Other conditions of the studies also contributed to the biases in the structural parameter estimates. These included sample size (F(10,116) = 5.12, p < .01, ES = .31), reliability (F(5,58)= 2.57, p < .01, ES = .18) as main effects, and their interaction with source of CMV (F(20,193) = 3.33, p < .01, ES = .22). Biases were smaller when CMV was known to be caused by a construct with its own indicators (mean =.02) than when CMV source was unknown (mean=.04, F((5,58) = 38.20, p < .01, ES = .77). In sum, different treatments of method factor loadings (constrained or freely estimated) and source of CMV (unknown and known from a measurable construct) affected the overall performance of CMFM heavily, while sample sizes, reliabilities of measurement, and the magnitude of CMV did less severely. These imply the poor performance of CMFM and the difficulty to decide when equality constraints may be robustly imposed on the method factor loadings.

Power Analysis of CMV

When CMV was absent in the true model and method factor loadings were freely estimated, power estimate (Type I errors in this case) of misidentified CMV were above the significance level of .05 (.11 ~ .13) and did not increase with enlarged sample sizes, as can be seen in Table 3. In addition, when equality constraints were imposed on the method factor loadings, the underestimated Type I errors of CMV remained below or close to a significant level of .05, and did not vary with an increase in sample size, either. Therefore, the relative stability of Type I errors, irrespective of sample sizes, can be used as an indication of the absence of CMV.

When CMFM was correctly specified to fit data with CMV, the power for detecting CMV varied with sample sizes. With high power at large sample size (N=5000), biases in focal structural parameters were reduced to zero and standard deviations of these biases became small (ranging from .01 to .09). In contrast, biases in CMV could not be reduced to zero when models were estimated with equality constraints imposed on the method factor loadings. Thus, increasing the power to detect CMV through larger samples can also find slight changes in the precision of parameter estimates.

Model comparisons at large sample sizes with a known CMV source

Model comparisons yielded mixed results. The Chi-square difference tests showed that only .02% of models with freely estimated method factor loadings were identified to be better than the misspecified one with equality constraints imposed on the method factor loadings. AIC difference tests showed that 6l.5% of true models fit the data better than the misspecified model. BIC and ABIC differences showed that 100% and 99% of models with freely estimated method factor loadings fit the data better than misspecified models.

CMFM of Empirical Data and Power Analysis

The baseline model without the common method factor fit the empirical data well (χ 2 (585) = 1241.10, p < .01, CFI = .96, TL1 = .96, RMSEA = .04). Mother's involvement and volunteering at school at an earlier grade was found to predict mother-child communication (β = .23, p < .01) and mother’s monitoring of negative peer influences (β = .13, p < .01). The latter two constructs predicted low delinquency (β = -.16, p < .01 and β = -.47, p < .01), respectively, and explained 29% of the variance in delinquency.

Models with a common method factor yielded different results. The model with method factor loadings freely estimated did not converge. The model with method factor loadings constrained to be equal fit the data well (χ 2 (583) = 1264.41, p < .01, CFI = .96, TLI = .96, RMSEA = .04). This model fit the data slightly worse than the baseline model as indicated by a significant chi-square difference (χ2dif (2) = 23.31, p < .01). Parameter estimates of this model were slightly different from those of the baseline model. Mother’s involvement and volunteering at school at an Bayesian Estimates of CMFM earlier grade predicted mother-child communication (β = .22, p < .01) and mother's monitoring of negative peer influences (3 = .12, p < .01). The latter two constructs predicted less adolescent delinquency (β = -.19, p < .01 and β = -.50, p < .01, respectively). A small nonsignificant CMV was identified by this model (CMV =.02, p = .65). This model explained slightly more of the variance in delinquency (33%) than did the baseline model. Simulations of 1000 samples at the original sample size showed that CMV had a mean of .04, a standard deviation of .16, and a power or Type I error smaller than < .001. Doubling the sample size resulted in a mean of .04, a standard deviation of .13, a power or Type I error of .001 for the CMV. In addition, the minimum power of other structural parameters was .76 at the original sample size and .97 at the doubled sample size. This finding was consistent with the slight over-estimation of CMV with equality constraints on the method factor loadings, and thus the non-existence of CMV in the data could be inferred.

Bayesian Estimates of CMFM

Note: DIC: Deviance Information Criterion.

The CMFM population parameters, DIC, and posterior estimates derived from four CMV priors are listed in Table 5. Although not reported in this Table, the lowest convergence rate was 97.6% under each condition. The parameter estimates were the means of the median point estimates obtained from one thousand simulated datasets. The median estimates were chosen for the report over the mean estimates because the posterior estimates might not be normally distributed for the mean estimates to be more meaningful. The numbers in Table 5 suggest the following. The smallest DIC (bold) indicate which prior specifications led to the optimal posterior estimates. When CMV was not present in the population model, a small prior for CMV enabled the model to fit the data better than other possible priors. When CMV was present in the data, the CMV parameter could be best recovered with a prior close to the population parameter, as indicated by both the smallest DIC and its mean median estimate.

Discussion

The three simulation studies of this report have showed the problems of CMFM in detecting and controlling CMV under limited data conditions, and demonstrated the advantages of power analysis to detect CMV and Bayesian estimation of CMFM to control for CMV. To make the findings more generalizable than a simple measurement model, the CMFM of this study was designed to include two exogenous constructs and a mediating construct. Given these limited conditions and the unavailability of a universal model, we obtained the following findings. First, in the absence of CMV, misspecified CMFM models had about a 50% chance of non-convergence. Converged but misspecified models overestimated CMV and underestimated other structural parameters. When sample sizes or CMV were small, even correctly specified CMFM had similar chances of non-convergence. These findings confirmed the overall low success rate of CMFM in identifying CMV (Richardson, et al., 2009). Non-convergence of CMFM under these conditions rendered model comparison impossible and thus failed to permit a test of whether the method factor model should have been specified or not.

Model comparisons under the limited condition of this study were largely consistent with previous findings. Chi- square difference tests were insensitive to the misspecification of equality constraints on the factor loadings at large sample sizes where it was expected to be overly sensitive, if anything. Although the Chi-square difference test indicated that models with equality constraints on the method factor loadings differed significantly from the model without the method factor, it was difficult to correctly infer which model best reflected the population. AIC performed better than the Chi-square difference test but it did not reach 95% probability of identifying the correct model, in terms of a statistical significance. BIC and ABIC differences favored the correctly specified model but are limited to maximum likelihood estimation (ML). For ordinal data, ML requires numeric integration and can be computationally challenging with complex models. In addition, BIC has a limitation of favoring excessively simple models Weakliem [51]. Therefore, in light of these findings and chances of non-convergence, model comparison appears to have limited use for detecting CMV.

Second, power analysis through simulations of large samples was found to identify misspecified CMFM effectively. Simulations of CMFM indicated that Type I errors of the CMV parameter would remain above a significant level and relatively stable if CMV was absent in the true model, while the power of CMV would increase if it was present in the true model. With sufficient power, biases in the structural parameters of our focal interest in this study could also be minimized. These findings were consistent with studies on the detection of model misspecification that show correctly specified models and sufficient power are necessary and complementary conditions for reducing biases associated with CMV Saris, et al. [52].

Third, biases in the parameters depended on the treatment of method factor loadings, the magnitude of CMV, sample sizes, measurement properties of latent constructs, and the knowledge of the CMV source. Imposing equality constraints on the method factor loadings increased the chances of misidentifying CMV, underestimated Type I errors, and overestimated CMV. CMFM performed well when CMV and sample sizes were large and when the model was correctly specified (without equality constraints on the method factor loadings). It performed best when the method factor that caused CMV was measured explicitly with its own indicators, as was also consistent with previous studies.

For the empirical data of this study, power analysis through simulations facilitated choosing a plausible model. The power of CMV with equality constraints on the method loadings remained under .05, even at a doubled sample size. The unchanged power (or type I error) matched findings from the simulations that CMV could have Type I errors close to .05 when CMFM was misspecified for data without CMV. This information suggests that CMV could be inferred to be absent in the empirical data. In addition, no overlap or similarity in contents of indicators for all the constructs or temporal proximity in the measurement were found that might cause CMV. Thus, the suspicion of CMV in the measurement and the model control CMV could be inferred to be unfounded.

Bayesian estimation of the CMFM appears to be promising to control CMV in this study, because it allows an analyst to experiment with unknown prior distributions of the CMV and observe DIC for best model fit. With the best priors specified, the median posterior estimates of the key structural parameters did not deviate much from the true population parameter and remained within the credibility intervals. Biases in the parameters have not been reported in the result, because we think it uninteresting to compare the average medians of 1,000 distributions to the population parameters.

Limitation of this Study

Suspicion of CMV in the measurement requires explicit assumptions and justification for them (Brannick, et al, [6]. The population model for this study has been hypothetically specified to have the method factor measured by all the indicators. Based on explicit assumptions in practice, the method factor may be measured by only some indicators of the exogenous and endogenous latent constructs. Alternatively Eid, Lischetzke [53.54] , covariances of some errors may be allowed to be freely estimated, instead of specifying a method factor Marsh, Grayson [53.55] .

Recommendations for Researchers

First, power analysis with larger sample sizes may be applied to a CMFM to confirm the existence of CMV, if it is suspected based on justifiable assumptions. It may be necessary to impose equation constraints on the method factor loadings ONLY to make the estimation converge in the power analysis. Second, CMFM with Bayesian estimation may be explored with a few prior distributions of CMV to observe the smallest DIC for the best model.

To read more articles in Journal of Gerontology & Geriatric Medicine

Please Click on: https://juniperpublishers.com/oajggm/index.php

For more Open Access Journals in Juniper Publishers

Click on: https://juniperpublishers.com/journals.php

[womenofcolor15]

Some Very INTERESTING & EDGY Looks Hit The Carpet For The 2019 MTV VMAs - Lil Kim, Normani, H.E.R., Monica & More!

There were some interesting and edgy fashion choices on the red carpet at the 2019 MTV Video Music Awards. Decide who's look you loved and the who's look you weren't feeling inside...

This year's MTV Video Music Awards went down at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey to celebrate artists who brought it this year with their visual content.

The red carpet lewks peaked our interest more than usual this time.

  It was a feathered frenzy when rapper Lil Kim rolled up on the carpet in a head-to-toe purple concoction by The Blonds paired with caged Jennifer Le sandals.  Girl...

Whew, lawd. Bawdy goals!

Singer Normani - formerly of Fifth Harmony - has def been taking notes from Beyonce. Chick hit all her angles in this colorful sequin Nicolas Jebran cutout dress accessorized with white gold earrings by Loree Rodkin before she hit the stage for a fire performance.

          View this post on Instagram

                  hyperventilating. who’s watching ?!?!?

A post shared by Normani (@normani) on Aug 26, 2019 at 6:13pm PDT

Sheesh.

It was the first time the singer performed her new hit "Motivation" live.

H.E.R. didn't come alone to the awards show. And her "date" didn't even have legs.

The "FOCUS" singer - rocking Valentino - brought her snake homie Bertha along with her for the awards show festivities.

Bold colors & prints! "Me+ You" singer Monica worked this Libertine number from the Spring 2019 collection serving up Parisan vibes with the beret.  The R&B singer rocked heels for the first time since having foot surgery.

          View this post on Instagram

                      A post shared by Hip-Hop Basement (@hiphopbasement_) on Aug 26, 2019 at 6:32pm PDT

  Push through high fashion! Lil Nas X shined in custom Christian Cowan.

Rappers Big Sean and A$AP Ferg debuted their newly released Hit-Boy-produced track "Bezerk," which is the 2nd single from Sean's forthcoming new album.

Rapper Kash Doll paid homage to Aaliyah - who died 18 years ago -in a dress created Monte Christo.

          View this post on Instagram

                      A post shared by DOLL SR. (@kashdoll) on Aug 26, 2019 at 5:04pm PDT

  Cake!

Wyclef Jean made his way on the carpet to snap it up with producer DJ Khaled and his family before hitting the stage.

Several rappers were in the building including a Gucci'd down Rick Ross, French Montana, and Fetty Wap (who performed):

Former NFL star-turned-football analyst Victor Cruz hit the carpet before presenting. 

The "Love & Hip Hop" stars - including Remy Ma, Safaree and his fiancee Erica Mena, JuJu, Amara la Negra and Bobby Lytes were in the mix:

The "Melanin Magic" rapper brought the glam in custom Karen Sabag.

Safaree & Erica gave off wedding vibes on the carpet.

Juju pushed through with jumpsuit realness by Albina Dyla.

Singer Amara la Negra struck a pose in fringed cut-out Valentino Omar dress.

Oh.

Rev. Al Sharpton stepped out to hang with the youngings.

There were couples that hit the carpet as well...

Lookin' MILFy

Singer/"Friends & Family Hustle" star LeToya Luckett and her hubby Tommicus Walker and rapper Ice-T and his wife CoCo brought the coupledom steez.

  Photos: Getty

[Read More ...] source http://theybf.com/2019/08/26/some-very-interesting-edgy-looks-hit-the-carpet-for-the-2019-mtv-vmas

[utopiedujour]

Administration Trump – la désunion et les bricolages, par Alexis Toulet

Billet invité. Également sur son propre blog.

Un document inattendu et un aperçu intéressant des luttes d’influence internes, de la désunion et pour tout dire du bricolage dans le plus proche entourage de Donald Trump.

Ou quand le stratège de Trump, ancien président de Breitbart News et homme d’influence très fortement marqué à droite Steve Bannon téléphone à l’éditeur d’un journal de gauche pour expliquer ses luttes contre ses adversaires politiques dans l’entourage du président américain, dans l’espoir apparent de s’en faire un allié (?!) et sans se préoccuper apparemment le moins du monde qu’il le mette bien évidemment sur la place publique.

Naïveté – difficile à imaginer de la part d’un homme de médias comme Bannon, reflet de bricolages d’un conseiller mis en accusation suite au meurtre de Charlottesville, volonté de faire pression sur Trump ou billard politique à douze bandes ?

Robert Kuttner a reçu un coup de téléphone peu ordinaire l’après-midi du 15 août. Co-éditeur de Prospect, revue américaine de gauche s’intéressant en priorité aux politiques publiques, il ne s’attendait probablement pas à ce que Steve Bannon, le conseiller politique du président Trump, demande à avoir cette longue conversation, qu’il a bien sûr retranscrite dans un article sur le site du magazine, Bannon n’ayant à aucun moment demandé à ce que leur entretien reste « off the record« , c’est-à-dire privé.

Kuttner ne semble pas en être tout à fait revenu, et se perd en conjectures sur les motivations du conseiller présidentiel, mis en difficulté suite au meurtre d’une manifestante par un néo-nazi à Charlottesville le 12 août. Voici une traduction de son compte-rendu de la conversation :

Steve Bannon au téléphone

L’impénitent Steve Bannon

Le stratège de Trump, mis en difficulté, prend l’initiative de me téléphoner pour discuter de la Chine, la Corée, et de ses ennemis à l’intérieur de l’administration.

Vous pourriez imaginer vu les récentes nouvelles que Steve Bannon est le dos au mur donc se comporte prudemment. Après les événements de Charlottesville, beaucoup le mettent en cause pour l’indulgence constante de son patron envers les suprématistes blancs. Les alliés du conseiller à la sécurité nationale H.R. Mac Master tiennent Bannon pour responsable d’une campagne contre lui de Breitbart News, que Bannon a autrefois dirigé. La défense de Bannon par Trump à sa conférence de presse de mardi était tiède.

Mais Bannon était d’excellente humeur quand il m’a téléphoné mardi après-midi pour discuter la politique de la ligne dure contre la Chine, et il n’a pas mâché ses mots pour décrire ses efforts pour neutraliser ses rivaux aux Ministères de la Défense, des Affaires Etrangères et du Trésor public. « Ils se font dessus » disait-il, avant de détailler comment il évincerait certains de ses opposants aux Affaires Etrangères et à la Défense.

Il va sans dire que j’étais un peu étonné de recevoir un courriel de l’assistant de Bannon mardi midi, au moment même où se déchaînait une nouvelle fois l’enfer au sujet de Charlottesville, disant que Bannon voulait me rencontrer. Je venais de publier un article sur la manière dont la Chine profitait de la dispute nucléaire Etats-Unis – Corée du Nord, avec quelques mots doux pour son patron.

« Trump a trouvé son égal en Kim. Le risque que deux idiots arrogants en arrivent à un échange nucléaire est plus grave qu’à aucun moment depuis octobre 1962« .

Peut-être Bannon voulait-il me crier dessus ?

J’ai dit à son assistant que j’étais en vacances, mais que je serais heureux de parler au téléphone. Bannon appela de suite.

Bien loin de me passer un savon pour avoir comparé Trump à Kim, il commença :

« C’est un grand honneur de finalement vous mettre la main dessus. J’ai suivi vos écrits depuis des années et je crois que vous et moi pensons la même chose au sujet de la Chine. Vous l’avez très bien dit« .

« Nous sommes en guerre économique contre la Chine. C’est dans toute leur littérature. Ils ne se privent pas de dire ce qu’ils font. L’un de nous sera un hégémon dans 25 à 30 ans, et les choses continuent comme maintenant ce sera eux. La Corée, c’est juste eux qui nous font danser. C’est une distraction« 

Bannon dit qu’il pourrait accepter un accord où la Chine s’arrange pour que la Corée du Nord gèle son armement nucléaire avec des inspections tandis que les Etats-Unis retirent leurs troupes de la péninsule, mais qu’un tel accord semble improbable. Etant donné qu’il n’y a guère de chance que la Chine aille plus loin sur le sujet, et que la logique de la dissuasion est en elle-même une source de modération, Bannon ne voit aucune raison de se priver de sanctions commerciales dures contre la Chine.

A l’encontre de Trump menaçant « feu et colère », Bannon affirme :

« Il n’y a aucune solution militaire [aux menaces nucléaires de la Corée du Nord], vous pouvez l’oublier. A moins que quelqu’un résolve ce terme de l’équation qui me montre que dix millions de personnes à Séoul meurent dans les 30 premières minutes par armes conventionnelles, je ne sais pas de quoi vous parlez, il n’y a pas de solution militaire, ils nous tiennent« .

Bannon poursuivit par une description de sa bataille au sein de l’administration pour une ligne plus dure contre le commerce chinois, et afin de ne pas tomber dans un piège consistant à penser que les plaintes au sujet du comportement commercial de la Chine devraient passer au second plan dans l’espoir que la Chine jouant les honnêtes courtiers aiderait à modérer Kim.

« Pour moi, la guerre économique contre la Chine est tout. Et nous devons nous concentrer là-dessus comme des maniaques. Si nous continuons à perdre, nous sommes à cinq ans, je dirais au maximum dix ans, de passer un point d’inflexion dont nous ne nous relèverons jamais« .

Le plan d’attaque de Bannon inclut : une plainte basée sur la Section 301 du Trade Act de 1974 contre la coercition chinoise au transfert de technologie exercée sur les entreprises américaines faisant des affaires là-bas, et d’autres plaintes contre le dumping en matière d’acier et d’aluminium.

« Nous allons mener la vie dure à ces gars. Nous sommes arrivés à la conclusion qu’ils sont en guerre économique, et ils nous écrasent »

Mais qu’en est-il de ses adversaires internes, aux Affaires Etrangères et à la Défense, qui pensent que les E.U. peuvent s’assurer l’aide de Pékin dans l’affrontement avec la Corée du Nord, et au Trésor public et au conseil économique qui ne veulent pas toucher au système du commerce ?

« Oh, ils se font dessus« , et d’expliquer que la plainte Section 301, suspendue quand commença la guerre de menaces avec la Corée du Nord, n’a été mise de côté que temporairement, et sera réactivée dans trois semaines. Quant aux autres ministères, Bannon a de grands projets pour marginaliser leur influence.

« Je change les gens à la Défense en Asie orientale, j’y mets des faucons. Je fais virer Susan Thornton [chef intérimaire des Affaires est-asiatiques et pacifiques] aux Affaires étrangères.”

Mais Bannon peut-il vraiment gagner cette lutte interne ?

« Je la gagne tous les jours. Et nous continuons à nous battre. Il y Gary Cohn du Trésor et Goldman Sachs qui font du lobbying » (1)

« Il faut qu’on y arrive. La position par défaut du président c’est celle-là, mais c’est l’administration qui est prise de folie. Comprenez-moi bien. Je veux dire tous les jours ».

Bannon expliquait que sa stratégie est de se battre contre les colombes de la politique commerciale en interne, tout en construisant à l’extérieur une coalition de faucons en matière commerciale, qu’ils soient de gauche ou de droite. D’où son coup de fil.

Il y a deux ou trois choses stupéfiantes à ce principe d’action. Premièrement, sachant que la plupart des opposants à la stratégie commerciale de Bannon contre la Chine sont d’autres responsables de l’administration Trump, il n’est pas clair comment appeler la gauche à l’aide. Cela donnerait plutôt à ses adversaires des arguments pour le taxer de manque de fiabilité et de déloyauté.

Plus étonnant, le fait que Bannon téléphone à l’éditeur d’une revue progressiste – dont les deux premières couvertures après l’élection de Trump étaient « Résister à Trump » et « Contenir Trump » – et s’imagine qu’une possible convergence de vues sur le commerce avec la Chine pourrait compenser le fossé politique et moral au sujet du nationalisme blanc.

Jamais la question n’a été posée si la conversation était privée ou non. Cela aussi est ahurissant, car Steve Bannon n’est pas exactement un agneau sans défense quand il s’agit des relations avec la presse. C’est sans doute la personne qui maîtrise le mieux les médias en Amérique.

J’ai interrogé Bannon sur le rapport entre son programme de nationalisme économique et l’affreux nationalisme blanc incarné par la violence raciste à Charlottesville et la réticence de Trump à la condamner. Après tout, Bannon était l’architecte de la stratégie consistant à utiliser Breitbart pour chauffer le nationalisme blanc, puis à s’appuyer sur l’extrême-droite comme base pour Trump. (2)

Il a rejeté l’extrême-droite comme hors de propos et esquiva son propre rôle de la cultiver :

« L’ethno-nationalisme, ce sont des perdants. C’est une frange. Je pense que les médias jouent trop dessus, et nous devons l’écraser, euh l’écraser davantage ».

« Ces types, c’est une collection de clowns »

De sa bouche, à l’oreille de Trump.

« Les Démocrates, plus longtemps ils font de la politique d’identités, mieux je les coince. Je veux qu’ils parlent de racisme tous les jours. Si la gauche se concentre sur race et identité, et nous sur le nationalisme économique, nous pourrons écraser les Démocrates ».

Je n’avais jamais parlé avec Bannon avant. J’ai retiré de la conversation l’impression d’un homme à la fois futé et déchaîné. L’eau monte autour de lui, mais il continue ses combats internes, et tente de se faire d’improbables alliés extérieurs pour promouvoir sa stratégie chinoise. Ses ennemis en feront ce qu’ils en feront.

Soit les nouvelles de menaces sur la position de Bannon sont grossièrement exagérée par ses rivaux, soit il a décidé de ne pas changer sa routine et de tomber en combattant. Vu l’impulsivité de Trump, ni Bannon ni Trump ne savent vraiment d’un jour au suivant si Bannon restera ou partira. Il a survécu à d’autres menaces. Alors au diable les torpilles.

La conversation s’est terminée par une invitation à la Maison Blanche venant de Bannon après la Fête du Travail (3) pour continuer la discussion sur la Chine et le commerce.

On verra s’il y est encore.

==================================

1 – Goldman Sachs, faire du lobbying dans le sens du nationalisme économique, au risque de troubler les règles du libre-échange international ? Il est permis de penser que Steve Bannon s’illusionne quelque peu.

2 – Difficile d’imaginer avec Robert Kuttner que la base électorale de Trump serait constituée principalement de nationalistes racistes. Le président américain conserve depuis trois mois un soutien globalement stable à 40% de la population américaine, contre 55% d’opposants, comme le montre cet agrégateur de sondages. Il n’est fort heureusement pas vrai que 40% de la population américaine serait constituée de racistes, sinon le rassemblement des néo-nazis et autres klansmen  à Charlottesville aurait réuni des millions de personnes, plutôt que quelques centaines.

3 – Aux Etats-Unis, le 4 septembre.

from Blog de Paul Jorion http://ift.tt/2v4lkYC via IFTTT

[made-from-galaxies]

SLIME COMESTÍVEL DE NUTELLA – MUITO FÁCIL! | KIM ROSACUCA

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