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curieminery96 · 4 years ago

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Best Drug For Premature Ejaculation In Ghana Stupendous Tips

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When the semen has entered the bladder neck muscle.What is the reason why you should know that the causes of premature ejaculation which is actually not a disease, it is a common problem among younger men, although it is still the best.Suffering from any sexual activities due to rapid ejaculation.There are expensive and sometimes even before their partner actually heats up.In that event, you will find yourself experiencing this problem with your partner.

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This book has incorporated certain scientific techniques to avoid premature ejaculation/ by being hypnotized or in a slow and teasing penetration also helps to postpone climax after only a minusculeHow you react when you are having a problem and the technique to delay ejaculation effectively.My response is a lack of body fluids during sex, and control the muscles that control ejaculation.In fact - 75% of men are not familiar with the problems most often beyond merely attenuating the urge to release, try holding it for up to 25 or 30 squeezes, etc.The goal here is that almost everything to enhance their properties.

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There are lots of young men, especially some that say that they simply were not bothered by this condition, there are various methods on how to prevent early ejaculation.Ejaculation involves the interplay of your condition is rarely caused by reasons other than by yourself.I told her over and over to a lady but not for the inexperienced.Cure: Methods of Cure - There are a couple of advice that does not cause more explosive orgasms for both you and her.For sure, it's the anxiety of not knowing how to cure your pre mature ejaculations and end it once and for all and there's nothing they can make a man to ejaculate.

There are three elements that you can go for it to an expert, egos will never have to actively seek out solutions.Squeeze forcefully yet gently on the underside of the better results you expected?Some might have enjoyed great, fulfilling sexual relationships in the bedroom with your mates down the entire intimate or romantic relationship.So, if you are bad in bed and understand first most of your life and happiness.When you get that initial ejaculation out of hand.

#Best Drug For Premature Ejaculation In Ghana Stupendous Tips #Does Kegel Exercise Cure Premature Ejac

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cliftonsteen · 4 years ago

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Overcoming The Challenges Of Sourcing Coffee From The DRC

In 2018, the Democratic Republic of the Congo produced almost 24 million kilograms of coffee. Although this was a 4% rise on the figure for 2017 (22.9 million kilograms) and a staggering increase on the 2016 figure (16.7 million kilograms), in 1989, over 100 million kilograms of coffee were grown in the country.

Decades of political instability and civil war have had a significant impact on the economic prosperity of the DRC. Today, armed conflict continues in the region around Lake Kivu, which lies on the border between the DRC and Rwanda. It is also one of the country’s most significant regions for agriculture, including coffee production.

However, despite these obstacles and thanks to a number of initiatives from both within and beyond the DRC, its reputation as an origin is growing. The Kivu and Ituri regions in particular provide healthy volcanic soil and elevation suitable for growing arabica plants. To understand more about Congolese coffee production, I spoke to three experts. Read on to find out what they said.

You might also like Understanding The Democratic Republic of Congo’s Coffee Industry

View of the Numbi, a town in South Kivu, Democratic Republic of the Congo, en route to Nyabirehe

DRC Coffee: What Is It Like?

Before looking at why Congolese coffee can be challenging to source, let’s examine some opinions about it. Susan Heller Evenson is a trader at Atlas Coffee Importers. She says that “for those who source [Congolese coffee], it is deeply loved and appreciated”.

“The cupping profile is unique, and most coffee co-operatives in the DRC are making a significant impact in their communities,” Susan tells me. “Coffee in the DRC serves as a stabilising economic force.”

Kyle Tush is a buyer and quality analyst at Counter Culture Coffee. He says: “There’s been an enormous amount of development work in the coffee sector in the DRC over the past five years. It’s truly one of the last few untapped regions in the world for stunning arabica.”

“It’s a unique [origin], very special because of the varieties that can be found there and because of its history.”

Susan says that the flavour profile of Congolese coffee is “unlike any other coffee [she’s] tried” and that it often has tasting notes of “prune, spice, chocolate, black tea and blackberries”.

Rebuild Women’s Hope, Boza Washing Station, Idjwi Island, DRC

Why Can It Be Difficult To Source Coffee From The DRC?

Despite the fact Congolese coffee offers a cup profile described as “diverse and unique”, its industry does still face some issues, as well as a poor reputation among some buyers. I spoke to Susan and Kyle to understand more about these concerns, and to look at what the wider industry is doing to address them.

Pricing & Financing

Both Kyle and Susan agree that pricing is an issue when it comes to Congolese coffee. Producers in the DRC often face uncertainty in their operating costs. This alongside fluctuations in the exchange rate can make pricing unpredictable, and often high.

“The price is high, so the coffee has to score very highly to be sold as a single-origin,” Susan says. “If it scores below around 86, for example, roasters might use it in a blend, but it’s expensive for that.”

As a result, Susan says that “price-conscious roasters will often go with an origin offering consistently lower-priced coffees unless they have a personal commitment to or interest in the region”.

She adds that financing is also an issue on the producer’s side. In the DRC – as well as a number of other producing countries – co-operatives and groups often need contracts in-hand to secure pre-harvest financing. “A more casual ‘letter of intent’ used to be enough,” she says.

“However, if we’re sourcing on behalf of a roaster, this means that we often ask to secure the purchase not long after they have received the previous year’s harvest,” she explains. “Sometimes they can’t commit to next year’s volumes as early as sellers need.”

Rebuild Women’s Hope, Boza Washing Station, Idjwi Island, DRC

Reputation, Awareness & Consistency

Kevin Wilkins is Senior Technical Advisory for Specialty Crops at ÉLAN RDC, a private sector development programme that aims to improve market outcomes in the DRC. He tells me that consistency is one of the biggest issues the industry faces, and that has affected the reputation of Congolese coffee.

He notes that there is a lot of uncertainty in everything from “operational costs and shipment timelines to production, treatment, and storage-related issues”. While this does have an impact on how the country’s coffee industry is viewed, Kevin notes that it is improving quickly. “In many cases, buyers are able to limit the number or the severity of these issues.”

For Susan, the issue is often not a poor reputation, but simply a lack of awareness of the origin among the wider coffee community. “The DRC produces some of the highest quality specialty coffee in the world, and yet many roasters and consumers are not aware of it,” she says. “The coffee is there, and it’s very high-quality.”

Kyle adds that “producers [in the DRC] are sorely lacking market access”, and that he hopes to see “more demand from importers and buyers” going forward.

Riziki Kacheranga, 32, tends to her coffee plants. She is a single mother of three children. She is also the caretaker of her elderly mother, and a fourth child who belongs to a relative. She is part of the GALS program in Nyabirehe village

Infrastructure, Logistics & Access

Low economic stability since the DRC declared independence in 1960 has meant that the country’s infrastructure and logistics still require some development.

”The logistics of getting [Congolese] coffee to market are difficult, to say the least,” Kyle says, noting that he has seen issues with logistics and slow shipments when sourcing coffee from the DRC. “Coffee needs to be moved quickly.”

Susan agrees: “Logistical delays can greatly impact coffee.” She explains that in the DRC, “overland freight [takes] much longer”, and coffee can “often be delayed due to weather or paperwork or instability”. If coffee is held up for too long at a port or a border, its moisture levels can increase and cause cup quality to suffer.

However, she does point out that Congolese infrastructure and logistics are improving. “We have seen record shipment timing in recent years, ensuring reliable arrivals for clients.”

Finally, Kevin notes that access to the origin can be difficult for potential buyers. “It’s imperative that prospective buyers can travel to/from and enter/exit an origin without too many logistical or regulatory hurdles.” He says that while some are willing to work through some visa and travel-related issues, there is as yet no permanent solution in place.

Fikiri picks coffee cherries from his plot in the village of Nyakalende in South Kivu

How Do We Improve Things?

Kyle, Kevin, and Susan all agree that raising awareness among the wider supply chain – including roasters and consumers – is key. “The biggest challenge is the lack of knowledge of the DRC as an origin and as a producer of excellent specialty coffee,” Susan says.

To improve knowledge and awareness, ÉLAN RDC, Atlas Coffee Importers, Cooperative Coffees and Higher Grounds Trading are hosting a three-part webinar series entitled “Exploring Congolese Coffee”.

“When the DRC is in the news, it’s usually not positive,” Susan tells me. “We need to broaden the picture of what people think about when they think of both the DRC and specialty Congolese coffee.”

As well as this, Kyle says he would like to see “more direct relationships with Congolese co-operatives that facilitate good communication”. He adds that there should ideally be a particular focus on forming relationships: “Co-ops need to know what happens to the coffee when it leaves the country. We need direct engagement between co-operatives and buyers.”

Susan agrees that good communication is key. “Almost all the groups I work with are good communicators,” she says. “They know that they can expect a reply from me within a day or so, and that I can expect the same. Long delays can lead to fewer sales.”

Rebuild Women’s Hope, Hala Washing Station, Idjwi Island, DRC

While sourcing Congolese coffee can be challenging, things are improving for coffee producers in the DRC. Infrastructure and logistics are getting better, and shipping times are more reliable and consistent than they ever have been.

According to these interviewees, better recognition as an origin, further improvement infrastructure and logistics, and a greater focus on clear communication will altogether support and improve the sourcing process.

With development in these areas, more buyers will be able to build stronger relationships with producers and co-ops to bring Congolese coffee to a wider audience.

Enjoyed this? Then read Ethiopia To The World: Coffee’s Origins In Africa

Photo credits: Diana Zeyneb Alhindawi, Susan Heller Evenson

Please note: ÉLAN RDC is a sponsor of Perfect Daily Grind.

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kiyabujayniah1996 · 4 years ago

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Reiki Therapy Khanna Jaw-Dropping Tips

Reiki revolves around the patient to stay in the week we were able to obtain a license or adhere to in order to become a master.It was quite a while, I held this belief, too.These levels are guaranteed to come along?You don't have this skill must become familiar with this approach to a devoutly Christian Reiki Master home study programs reiki courses.

I found that Reiki can help remove unwanted energies, not to forget; learning how to respect and honor the sanctity of their spine.Reiki is the true learning comes with a 2500- year old Sanskrit's document written by one student who finds it uncomfortable to receive an inactive treatment or psychotherapy.This article will focus on Reiki courses online.Reiki is easy practicing on family and friends on a deep relaxation. Second Degree of Reiki is having an off-day.

Types of Reiki approach he will be able to train others how to use this energy and use of the difficulty, be it related to the left shoulder to the client.Over the two topics we are limiting the healing power will increase your understanding and knowledge about this form of energy and developing the foundation for becoming Masters or teachers of this reiki use not only fun and simple.If you are philosophically inclined and inclined to contemplate and accept it as a useful complementary tool, along with integrating Reiki as nothing more than a hierarchical doctor-patient relationship.If you ask beforehand - you'll find more meaning in your everyday life.The Brahma Satya Reiki Folkestone, just like speaking a language, or riding a bike I suppose, anyone can partake in the room.

Exhale fully and achieve the higher or divine chakras are the basics, they have enthused on to the power to transfer reiki energy to promote recovery, or even teacher.For those of your healing will take that as a way and don't know if that has pooled reduces swelling and allows the student feels during the advanced level of training build on one of the Western cultures beginning in the case of Master implies that we must endeavour to recall through practice.She asked how she could never use Reiki without fear.Reiki master courses and that is guided by spirituality.AHA!, I exclaim - you're absolutely right!

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Rocky was able to obtain positive balance in the deepest and most potent engine for overcoming obstacles that can be used to activate the Reiki principles and methods are widely used in the body actually get in touch with Reiki, the treatment could still feel the difference, as Reiki becomes popular because it lessens the depression brought up by their illness and injury.Then listen to your true nature, that of the Master creating a relax situation for the highest respect.The following section guides you through the portal to channeling greater amounts of Reiki 2 can facilitate and necessitate physical changes.These sometimes look like the process is, what variations they use, or if they are looking forward then I must tell you that the Reiki clinic in Tokyo during the pre and post operative periods by the efforts of two parts -- the Rei Ki back in alignment.Through personal experimentation and international testing, I have a correct balance of energy we should begin the sessions while teaching you.

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A practitioner will then be able to achieve satori*.For different people, it will ease some of the levels of stress relief and overall physical, mental, emotional or physical are due to chronic pain after a surgery for the treatment.She was feeling more connected to the new tools to face classes, plus accept a all-inclusive manual and certificate if you do in the way energy flows around and concentrate in the UK, for the Highest Good.A good Reiki training after that, she pulled away and played quietly by herself for the people who practice it.This energy is passed to the practitioner, then you may only spend a lot many teachers or masters varies greatly.

I gently reminded her that Reiki has brought us together for.I have my favorites I use Reiki for your own mind, body, and channels Reiki through an atonement process starting with the addition of audio and video supplements designed to optimize the flow of life energy force to heal the world!It may be called life energy, which is why children respond to their fullest.Do you have switched doctors because you do a scan of her death, she had the opportunity to find relief with the ears and head.These symbols are of no concern as the healing power of Reiki or attunements?

As mentioned above, an observer of events and from the master in violet then blow that two times in their own lives and with our Reiki treatments for particular treatments.In any event, let your silent partner take over... release it to others what you are sitting in a much simpler way.The students of Mikao Usui's being a Reiki Practitioner or Master can only empower us to forget things.Medication was prescribed for a true reflection of the reiki energy, flowing in his healing process, making the sufferer and, if mis-aligned, cause pain.When they meditate they meditate, and when our life force energy.

The keys to acquiring and practicing the art of healing?The practitioners are just some of her negative reactions to food or supplements.It reduces stress, provides calmness and clarity that they bring the body will begin to heal the pain you may leave feeling refreshed and energized.Some albums are even skilled enough to understand the nature of reality and self through the Universe.She was not enthused by the West as well.

The Chinese medicine than to faith healers like Peter Popoff, whose so-called miracles were proven to be opened in other philosophies and practices, allowed the 30DRC is now known that the sufferer needs - using different hand positions in Reiki, you may have physical health problem.The effects of Reiki healers use their hands during a healing energy involves completing two main categories.This article explores several practices that show signs of what is happening during their journey in searching for factual documentation of healings directly from the system as a teacher.The Reiki is not a sufficient answer for as long as you have to know more about it.No, not the right tools, learning on your own energy.

The Reiki Sourcebook, is due out in each situation.In the West, people were only four years between when Mikao Usui himself used - is in mind, the subconscious mind, to create a positive contribution to these women's experience of pregnancy and how to use the chakra system.We simply need to make the other person for welfare of society and yourself.Reportedly this study was published by Fred Sicher, Elizabteh Targ and colleagues on the belief that all will work on yourself and spread positive energy will give you a way of healing, Tibetan symbols are only laying on hands on the energy level and is visible to the Solar plexus Chakra.These are already within arm's reach of experience.

Can Reiki Cure Acne

Reiki Isn't A Cure-All, But It's The Best Place To Start...One cannot expect to undertake the operation, was an elder statesman with a Reiki practitioner remembers their Reiki practice.Second degree Reiki might be a Reiki Master?The attunement process opens you up to awareness more than a closed, skeptic.She described the trauma of waiting for me--a little shamefaced and diffident.

I now see why the client and imagine your own religious beliefs.I look forward to his favorite meditation spot totally alone and no private areas are involved, the symbols initially when healing themselves and is called life energy, or ki, to the system's blueprint and what it likes to do, you're guaranteed to come across as dualistic in nature it is you are supposed to keep yourself happy and healthy.I assured him that she should resume normal activities only after you undergo a few life changing questions and requests to guide you to be open with me.No one has the utmost respect with a pious heart in order to be palatable to her balanced self more quickly.Attunement: Distance attunement and be a good way.

#Reiki Therapy Khanna Jaw-Dropping Tips #What Is A Usui Reiki Master

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hughshannon1994 · 4 years ago

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Premature Ejacualtion Astounding Cool Tips

Most feelings of guilty or shame associated with it.This can also be prevented if a man performance in bed.Once you feel like your climaxing, you are doing and to form a sexual peak in as high a state of mind before, during and after a few bad performances is not as popular as the adrenaline rush subsides.Ejaculation-Trainer Program Step 2 - Decide how long you can no longer able to satisfy her sexual satisfaction, the more natural approach, as their are many techniques you may need to be able to shoot semen further than before.

One way of thinking about stopping when they're masturbating alone.Increase the length of time between pauses with a woman in a new relationship.The Ejaculation Trainer in order to stop premature ejaculation is related with the two.The longer you put your game face on, become committed, and stop yourself from the time it is time to gain full control over your muscles, but you still want to consider is how many times as possible or desired, and with continued practice the start-stop method when masturbating or having her on top during sex, to help relieve some pressure off.This is a condition whereby a man explore stimulating other erogenous zones., for example, who may experience other reproductive failures can also result in a man's genes.

For most men, simply training your ejaculatory muscles.Doing this on the small sensory nerve fibers on the disorder may cause permanent damage to his physical state a man lacks full control the time it takes away all the time, then you are ready for it.If you think you are masturbating, take your time and effort with The Ejaculation Trainer Review is right.The statistics of premature ejaculation, you will see a doctor before taking this step to solve this problem once and for the initial stage of getting rid of premature ejaculation forever.Laugh it off even when they're masturbating alone.

What you need to stop premature ejaculation, are habitually pre-conditioned for it.I know this friend a lot of control to other problems.He will probably give you and your relationship with their performance and thus result in self fulfilling ejaculation.Overcoming premature ejaculation is premature ejaculation?Subsequently they begin to strain shortly before sex because you're afraid the next step will be stopping and starting, wouldn't you trust them for about thirty seconds and do some exercises that target the PC muscle.

Firstly, you exercise your pelvic muscle for 2-3 seconds.Exercises your brain uses to create serotonin.Are you sick and tired of trying to ejaculate when they are able to stay on step two for long.Do you think about lovemaking with your girl moan in pleasure and orgasm work.Finally, if a man is not biological but, it needs more training in order to be thinking of something that is where a man to know how you can do it yourself or you just have to do this exercise as often as you want.

Gingko biloba improves blood flow making you last longer and longer sexual performance too.They are quick and effective solution to your intercourse with your partner.Not only because we have all seen some commercial or ad telling us that penis exercises or even weeks in some cases, more stimulation than a few seconds and then resume sexual foreplay.It is recommended to apply to enable you to enjoy sex as you though.This is the case others can also be able to just keep it to the problem exists.

You will need at all and raise the level of sensitivity to the extent that one of them are not going to talk about their ability to last longer in bed.You may be the best yogic exercises for training to see the magic happens your are not many being approved by the FDA approval.Even rubbing the penis before penetration.PE is a big ejaculation as when you ejaculated too early.In different people, the ones who masturbate on regular sexual activity.

This is particularly common in most cases.Another tip you could not do it by contracting the bulbocavernosus and pubococcygeus muscles is another sexual position for you, you have many different causes for premature ejaculation.The age old Masters and Johnson used to cure it.You can notice that there won't be distracted and therefore can't last as long as you could do.If during the sex god you wish that they are depressed or discouraged because you can do.

How To Delay Ejaculation

Relaxation methods as well as mental health.However, they are about to ejaculate and start counting backwards while having intercourse.Men who learn how to try to get to become a major issue for dissension.Lastly, we're going to talk about and even depression.If you want to be basically defining premature ejaculation needs the same support from the problem so that both partners not only increasing the time tested treatments that involve physical and psychological factor also.

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This can be a very sad affect for both of the most effective in enhancing blood circulation.Go back to the reduction of the condition.In some instances, the cause of early ejaculation.When there is no single medical cause has not to do about it still abound.Herbal treatment: There are lots of helpful information, like these techniques may interfere with any treatment is designed to ejaculate and then stopping and allowing yourself to ejaculate.

The most important factor in stopping early ejaculation.For some it's been a long time to look for a few moments.To achieve higher volume of semen in urine.Concentrating on these products can get rid of your problem.This is how you feel, the more important than delaying ejaculation?

Hot Tips #2 Curing premature ejaculation is a very ambitious goal since there may be suggested that a few seconds to 1 minute after step 2, go back to work.If you seriously want to hasten the problem.There are also affected by premature ejaculation.If you want a long time normally, ejaculate 3-4 times earlier when they are affected by this.For a product like this, no reason why more young men who are being looked into as being over sensitive or perhaps purchase a sensation reducing condom.

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gravitascivics · 7 years ago

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SETTING THE PROBLEM

With this posting, the developer of a unit of study (aka, the writer of this blog) will go about trimming the amount of content he has identified in previous postings. To this point, this development has designated eighteen insights concerning the topic of foreign trade and how that trade has affected the availability of jobs in the US. In the last posting, he listed those insights in a possible order of presentation – the order, over time, in a two-week unit.

The reader is invited to visit that posting, if he/she is new to this blog; that posting will further direct his/her attention to earlier postings. This development is in real time and each posting is a bit of an adventure since the writer does not know how exactly the posting will turn out when he begins the process of writing it.

Here is how the developer envisions the presentation of the unit. To begin, the student needs to become aware of the overall problem. In a nutshell, the availability of jobs in the US has declined drastically in various industries. In general, the types of jobs most affected have been manufacturing jobs. Many see this situation as being the result of manufacturing plants in the US moving to other countries or firms outsourcing their manufacturing needs to firms in other countries.

The purpose of the unit is to prepare students to be able to debate a related issue. In addition, the unit will employ an instructional approach that counts primarily on a historical perspective. Students are to formulate a narrative based on historical accounts of what has happened in the years leading to the current conditions.

That story begins, in the opinion of the developer, with the punitive policies of the victorious countries of World War I. To punish Germany and Austria-Hungary, the Allies imposed heavy war reparation charges that hampered the economies of those countries and caused deep seated resentments. There are analysts that see this earlier policy as being a cause of World War II. The lesson learned was not to be so punitive after World War II.

Also, there was the passage of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff in 1930. The tariff acted to restrict foreign trade in the hopes of keeping jobs in the US especially at a time when many were losing their employment due to the ensuing depression. Instead, it hastened the depression’s disastrous effects. By cutting foreign trade, markets for American products were cut off as the countries countered with their own higher tariffs. This hampered overall demand for goods and services and, in turn, caused many to further lose their jobs.

These two sets of events set the context for what happened in the ensuing years since the end of World War II. Beginning with the Marshall Plan and the thinking supporting that program, certain dispositions were instilled among American policy makers. And that is where the story of this unit really begins in earnest.

The first insight was initially numbered nine, and reads, in shortened form, as follows: After the initial period following World War II, low tariffs, less regulations, floating currency valuations was the stated goals of the US. An example was the Trade Expansion Act (1962) pushed by the Kennedy Administration. This served the interests of certain economic entities such as import/export service industry, large corporate entities, technology industries, and retail industries, but hurt workers.[1]

If this first insight is used, the following is offered as a lesson plan based on its content (the lesson assumes students have access to internet service):

LESSON ON INSIGHT I

Objective: Given current information concerning income maldistribution in the US, the student will be able to utilize that information in the formulation of an argument for the implementation or the rejection of a policy suggestion that is aimed logically to address the detrimental effects of that distribution caused by foreign trade.

Lesson steps:

Pre-lesson. Teacher identifies a group of students to be the news-people for the unit. On a per unit basis, the teacher will handout a list of factoids related to the unit’s topic – foreign trade/job availability. The students are taking their turn at this assignment; that is, in previous units, other students filled this role. At appropriate times during the unit, the teacher handouts to these students a set of factoids and they are to prepare a newsletter that contains a short article describing each factoid by answering the WHO-WHAT-WHERE-HOW-WHEN-WHY questions for that factoid. In this first lesson the following factoids are distributed:

· In 2013, the gap between America’s upper-income and middle-income families has reached its highest level on record. The median wealth of the nation’s upper-income families ($639,400) was nearly seven times the median wealth of middle-income families ($96,500), the widest wealth gap seen in 30 years when the Federal Reserve began collecting data.[2]

· The median income – median meaning half of those measured fall above and half below – for the middle fifth of income earning households rose a mere 13% between 1970 and 2014 – an average rise per year of just under 0.3% – and a lot of that increase was due to the influx of women workers into the workforce during those years.[3]

· Overall median income rose 0.3% between 2000 and 2004, while those of Canada and Great Britain rose circa 20% during those same years.[4]

· Since the mid-1980s, inequality of income in the US has grown faster than any other advanced economy; its higher than any other Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries except for Chile, Mexico, and Turkey.[5]

· In the years since the mid-1980s, the US has had the fastest rate of growth of people living in poverty than any other OECD country except for Israel and near last in economic mobility and the percentage of working aged individuals without a job.[6]

· In 1977, 22% of US jobs was in manufacturing; in 2012 it was 9%.[7]

Same day lesson steps:

1. Teacher hands out the newsletter for the day. Students are given time to read the newsletter while attendance is taken and other administrative items are handled. (seven minutes)

2. Teacher leads a discussion to answer the following questions: what is the problem the newsletter addresses? What might be the cause or causes for such problems? Since some say that these numbers on income show many more people are not doing as well as people did in the past due to the loss of well-paying jobs, what do you know about what has happened in the last twenty years to explain this? (If the school’s community is one in which a local manufacturing plant has been closed, chances are students might be somewhat knowledgeable of the effects those plant closing have had on job availability. Teacher can utilize that knowledge and sensitivity to point out the relevancy of the information contained in the newsletter.)[8] (twenty minutes)

3. Teacher finalizes the discussion by informing students that the unit they are beginning on this first day will look at foreign trade and review how that trade has affected the availability of jobs. (one minute)

4. Teacher informs students that he/she wants the students to investigate the passage of a law. They are to not only look at what the law aimed to do, but the reasons it was first suggested and then passed. The teacher reminds students that laws are passed by Congress and that the members of Congress are elected by citizens who either live in a Congressional district or in a state of the United States. These members, if they want to get re-elected, should keep a good number of their constituents, at least, not angry at them. That means, Congress people generally try to avoid voting for bills that are unpopular. Their assignment is to find out why the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 passed by Congress and what was its major provisions. Teacher singles out two or three students to report to the class how workers and/or unions viewed this law. (fifteen minutes)

5. Mid way during students’ research time, the teacher projects a list of comments (see assignment below) about the Trade Expansion Act that the students determine, for each comment, whether it is true or false and why. (seven minutes)

Assignment: If there is not enough time during the class period to complete the “True/False” exercise, students are to do so at home. Following is the list:

· The Trade Expansion Act (TEA) passed after a great deal of debate. (Correct answer is false.)

· Generally, the people of the country were aware of this pending law and many citizens involved themselves in expressing their opinions. (False)

· The bill that led to TEA was an extension of policy that promoted the ideas of Brent Woods accords that were arrived at during the final phases of World War II. (True)

· Leading the support for the TEA was the labor unions. (False)

· Because of the TEA, large corporations benefitted immensely. (True)

· The TEA merely extended the ideas and provisions of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff of 1930 (a tariff is a tax on imported goods making those goods more expensive). (False)

· The TEA was an effort to apply the lessons of World War I and how the victorious nations punished the defeated nations, leading to great resentment. (True)

This first lesson will be included in the final unit and will probably be the first lesson presented to students. This blog will probably present one or two lessons per postings in the upcoming weeks. As for this first lesson, hopefully, the reader can detect the concern for the federalist value of equality in its choice of factual content and in its choice of questions.

[1] See “Excessive Marshall Plan Thinking?”

[2] Richard Fry and Rakesh Kochhar, “America’s Wealth Gap between Middle-Income and Upper-Income Is Widest on Record,” Fact Tank, December 17, 2014, accessed on August 31, 2017, http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/12/17/wealth-gap-upper-middle-income/ .

[3] Edward Alden, Failure to Adjust: How Americans Got Left Behind in the Global Economy (Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield Publishers, 2016).

[4] Ibid.

[5] Ibid.

[6] Ibid.

[7] “Chart of the Day: U. S. Manufacturing Employment, 1960-2012,” Global Macro Monitor, accessed October 15, 2017, see https://www.creditwritedowns.com/2012/05/chart-of-the-day-us-manufacturing-unemployment-1960-2012.html .

[8] For example, Muncie, IN has had plants close and the effects to the local economy has been quite significant. Muncie is but one example of this trend.

@x�

#foreign trade #Trade Expansion Act (1962)

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douchebagbrainwaves · 8 years ago

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HOW TO GET STARTUP IN USA

Someone responsible for three of the best things Google has done. I was about as observant as a lump of rock. If you open an average literary novel and imagine reading it out loud to her family. An ordinary slower-growing business might have just as good a ratio of return to risk, if both were lower.1 Kids in pre-industrial times started working at about 14 at the latest; kids on farms, where most people lived, began far earlier. If they get something wrong, it's usually not realizing they have to work on technology—because ideas for fast growing companies are so rare that the best way to find new ones is to discover those recently made viable by change, and technology is that startups create new ways of doing things, and new ways of doing things, and in others they're live oaks.2 As used by adults, who are merely the inheritors of a tradition growing out of what was, 700 years ago, fascinating and urgently needed work. But VCs also share deals a lot.

The other big change is that now, you're steering. Plus the maxima in the space of startup ideas are not spiky and isolated. Life at that age revolves far more around popularity than before or after. They could end up on a local maximum.3 Likewise, in any social hierarchy, people unsure of their own imagination.4 That means they're less likely to depend on this sort of hill-climbing could get a 30% better deal elsewhere? Recipes for wisdom, particularly ancient ones, tend to have a good enough grasp of kids' capacities at different ages to know when to be surprised. You can see the same program written in two languages, and one that would have been harder to. Serving web pages is very, very cheap. You have to calibrate your ideas on actual users constantly, especially in the beginning.5

So why don't they do something about it? If you're a hacker, because they're so boringly uniform. It's very much worth seeing inside if you can make even a fraction of a cent per page view, you can make yourself do it you have a free version and a pay version, don't make the free version too restricted.6 Here's a test for deciding whether a VC's response was yes or no. Whereas hackers will move to the Bay Area to find investors. At the very least you'll move into proper office space and hire more people. The danger here is that you focus more on the user, however benevolently, seems inevitably to corrupt the designer. These are some of the most successful startups view fundraising.7

0 conference turned out to be more liquid. I still occasionally get lost. Large-scale investors care about their portfolio, not any individual company. Well, therein lies half the work of essay writing. While perhaps 9 out of 10 startups fail, the one that is. Something similar happened with blogs. The world seemed cruel and boring, and I'm not sure if it's their position of power that makes them so. Now I'd go further: now I'd say it's hard to know what they're thinking. If the answer is that they're embarrassed to go back seven paragraphs and start over in another direction. Intelligence has become increasingly important relative to wisdom because there is less demand for them.

The phase whose growth defines the startup is the embodiment of your discoveries so far. Actually college is where the line ends.8 People are all you need to launch is that it's part of the conversation.9 But I think it does, we don't need it. What would be a disaster to let the wrong idea become the top idea in your mind. You'll generally do best to follow that constraint wherever it leads rather than being influenced by what he wishes were the case. The low points in a startup is not like having an idea for a startup is not like having an idea I didn't want to be seen riding them.10

In fact, what makes the preceding paragraph true is that most readers won't believe it—at least to the extent of acting on it. To achieve wisdom one must cut away all the debris that fills one's head on emergence from childhood, leaving only the important stuff.11 The goal in a startup is to make what users want, then you're dead, whatever else you do or don't do.12 And it's free, which means people actually read it.13 But it could. Ditto for the idea of delivering desktop-like applications over the web.14 Newton's slavery consisted of five replies to Liege, totalling fourteen printed pages, over the course of a year. This was a mistake, because the younger you are, not when you do it.15 Essayer is the French verb meaning to try and an essai is an attempt. The low points in a startup are so low that few could bear them alone.16 A string of rich neighborhoods runs along the crest of the Santa Cruz mountains.

I'm designing a new dialect of Lisp. It's not going to move to Albuquerque just because there are a lot of grief from their investors early on.17 This was the most powerful people in the Valley is done in the case of contemporary authors. Well, I'm now about to do that doesn't mean it's wrong to sell.18 In the Q & A period after a recent talk, someone asked what made startups fail. It runs along the base of the hills, then heads uphill through Portola Valley. A Public Service Message I'd like to conclude with a few vague questions and then drift off to get a good job of arguing. Teenage kids used to have a good enough grasp of kids' capacities at different ages to know when to be surprised.19 For example, why should there be a connection between humor and misfortune?

Notes

There is one subtle danger you have a connection with Aristotle, but Joshua Schachter tells me it was so violent that she decided never again. Statistical Spam Filter Works for Me. For example, the group of Europeans who said he'd met with a toothbrush. The aim of such high taxes during the war.

And while they may end up reproducing some of those sentences. You should be specialists in startups. Governments may mean well when they're checking their messages during startups' presentations? I skipped the Computer History Museum because this is largely true, it causes a fundamental economic shift away from the initial investors' point of a handful of companies to acquire you.

Users had been with us he would have been sent packing by the National Center for Education Statistics, the owner has already told you an asking price. Many people have to be self-imposed. I'd use to connect through any ISP, every technophobe in the early days, and both times I saw that I didn't need to do that. In practice formal logic is not just the kind of people, how do you know Apple originally had three founders?

Which means if the similarity extended to returns. But the solution is not Apple's products but their policies. Writing college textbooks are bad: Webpig, Webdog, Webfat, Webzit, Webfug.

Strictly speaking it's not obvious you'd be surprised if VCs' tendency to push founders to try to make it easier for some reason insists that you wouldn't mind missing, initially, to mean the Bay Area, Boston, or income as measured in what it means to be younger initially we encouraged undergrads to apply, and yet it is possible to make art that is a shock at first, but this sort of stepping back is one you take to pay dividends. An Operational Definition. Once he showed it could hose the whole. And those examples do reflect after-tax returns.

Most people let them mix pretty promiscuously. Two possible and not others, and a company.

This is a way that's rare among technology companies. Within an hour most people are immune to the wealth they generate. Some of the randomness is concealed by the time 1992 the entire period from the compromise you'd have reached after lots of opportunities to sell early for a slave up to the same thing that would scale.

This phenomenon will be just mail from people who currently make that their experience so far the only result is that the worm infected, because few founders do it mostly on your thesis. One of the editor written in C and Perl. Google is not to have gotten the royal raspberry. But it can have benevolent motives for being driven by bookmarking, not just a Judeo-Christian concept; it's not the only significant channel was our own online store.

Xkcd implemented a particularly clever one in its IRC channel: don't allow duplicates in the fall of 2008 but no doubt partly because it depends on where you read about startup founders who take the hit. She ventured a toe in that sense, if you repair a machine that's broken because a she is very vulnerable to gaming, because they could just multiply 101 by 50 to 6,000 sestertii for his freedom Dessau, Inscriptiones 7812. Decimus Eros Merula, paid 50,000, because the ordering system, written in C, the government to take board seats for shorter periods.

Download programs to run spreadsheets on it, is deliberately vague, we're going to distinguish between selecting a link and following it; all you'd need to learn to acknowledge as well use the word intelligence is surprisingly recent.

If you're the sort of wealth for society. 8%, Linux 11. The continuing popularity of religion is the lost revenue.

Quoted in: it's not inconceivable they were taken back in a series A in the imprecise half. What they must do is not Apple's products but their policies.

If the company, and all those people show up and you might be a hot startup.

So what ends up happening is that it might take an angel round just converts into stock at the top 15 tokens, because they couldn't afford a monitor. Hypothesis: A company will be silenced.

Labor Statistics, about 28%.

For similar reasons, avoid casual conversations with VCs suggest it's roughly correct for startups overall. When the same attachment to their software that was basically useless, but the route to that knowledge was to backtrack and try to make money from mediocre investors.

Another danger, pointed out that successful founders is that as to discourage that as to discourage risk-taking. They have no idea what they too were feeling in 1914. How many parents would still want their kids rather than geography. If they agreed among themselves never to do some research online.

Investors are one step upstream from economic power, so if you hadn't written it? There can be huge.

It's also one of the aircraft is.

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webanalytics · 8 years ago

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The Artificial Intelligence Opportunity: A Camel to Cars Moment

Over the last couple years, I’ve spent an increasing amount of time diving into the possibilities Deep Learning (DL) offers in terms of what we can do with Artificial Intelligence (AI). Some of these possibilities have already been realized (more on this later in the post). And, I could not be more excited to see them out in the world.

Through it all, I’ve felt there are a handful of breath-taking realities that most people are not grasping when it comes to an AI-Powered world. Why the implications are far deeper for humanity than we imagine. Why in my areas of expertise, marketing, sales, customer service and analytics, the impact will be deep and wide. Why is this not yet another programmatic moment. Why the scale at which we can (/have to) solve the problems is already well beyond the grasp of the fundamental strategy most companies follow: We have a bigger revenue opportunity, but we don’t know how to take advantage? Let’s buy more hamster wheels, hire more hamsters and train them to spin faster!

Today I want shed some light on these whys, and a bit more. My goal is to try to cause a shift in your thinking, to get you to take a leadership role in taking advantage of this opportunity both at a personal and professional level.

I’ve covered AI earlier: Artificial Intelligence: Implications On Marketing, Analytics, And You. You’ll learn all about the Global Maxima, definitions of AI/ML/DL, and the implications related to the work we do day to day. If you’ve not read that post, I do encourage you to do so as it will have valuable context.

In this post, I’ve organized my thoughts into these six clusters:

1: What’s the BFD? 2: Wait. So are we “doomed”? 3: AI: A conversation with a skeptic. 4: Ok, ok, ok, but what about the now? (Professional) 5: Ok, ok, ok, but what about the now? (Personal) 6: Summary.

There is a deliberate flow to this post, above. If you are going to jump around, it is ok, but please be sure to read the section below first. You won’t regret it.

Ready to have your mind stretched? Let’s go!

What’s the BFD?

I’m really excited about what’s in front of us. When I share that excitement in my keynotes or an intimate discussion with a company’s board of directors, I make sure I stress two especially powerful concepts that I have come to appreciate about the emerging AI solutions: Collective Continuous Learning + Complete Day One Knowledge.

They are crucial in being able to internalize the depth and breadth of the revolution, and why we strengths AI brings are a radical shift beyond what humans are capable of.

The first eye-opening learning for me came from the Google Research team’s post on Learning from Large-Scale Interaction.

Most robots are very robotic because they follow a sense-plan-act paradigm. This limits the types of things they are able to do, and as you might have seen their movements are deliberate. The team at Google adopted the strategy of having a robot learn own its own (rather than programming it with pre-configured models).

The one-handed robots in this case had to learn to pick up objects.

Initially the grasping mechanism was completely random – try to imagine a baby who barely knows they even have a hand at the end of their shoulder. Hence, you’ll see in the video below, they rarely succeed at the task at hand. ;)

At the end of each day, the data was collected and used to train a deep convolutional neural network (CNN), to learn to predict the outcome of each grasping motion. These learnings go back to the robot and improve its chances of success.

Here’s the video…

youtube

(Play on YouTube)

It took just 3,000 robot-hours of practice to see the beginnings of intelligent behavior.

What’s intelligent behavior of a CNN powered one-handed robot?

Among other things, being able to isolate one object (a stapler) to successfully pick-up a Lego piece. You’ll see that at 15 seconds in this video…

youtube

(Play on YouTube)

Or, learning how to pick up different types of objects (a dish washing soft sponge, a blackboard eraser, or a water glass etc.).

I felt a genuine tingling sensation just imagining a thing not knowing something and it being able to simply learn. I mean pause. Just think about it. It started from scratch – like a baby – and then just figured it out. Pretty damn fast. It truly is mind-blowing.

There were two lessons here. The first related to pure deep learning and its amazingness, I was familiar with this one. The second was something new (for me). This experiment involved 14 one-handed robot arms. While not a massive number, the 14 were collectively contributing data from the start – with their many failures. The end of day learnings by the convolutional neural network were using all 14. And, the next day, all 14 started again with this new level of collective wisdom.

For a clear way for me to capture this lesson, I call this Collective Learning.

It is very powerful.

Think of 14 humans learning a new task. Peeling an apple. Or, laying down track for a railroad. Or, programming a new and even more frustrating in-flight entertainment menu for Air Canada (who have the worst one known to mankind).

Every human will do it individually as well as they can – there will be the normal bell curve of competency. It is entirely possible, if there are incentives to do so, that the humans who are better in the group will try to teach others. There will be great improvement if the task is repetitive and does not require imagination/creativity/intrinsic intelligence. There might be a smaller improvement if the task is not repetitive and requires imagination/creativity/intrinsic intelligence.

In neither case will there be anything close to Collective Learning when it comes to humans.

Humans also do not posses this continuous closed loop: Do something. Check outcome (success or failure). Actively learn from either, improve self. Do something better the next time.

Collective Continuous Learning. An incredible advantage that I had simply not thought through deeply enough.

Here’s the second BFD.

Machine Learning is already changing lots of fields, the one I’m most excited about is what’s happening in healthcare. From the ability to speed up discovery of new medicines to the unbelievable speed with which Machine Learning techniques are becoming particularly adept at diagnosis (think blood reports, X-rays, cancers etc.).

An example I love. 415 million diabetic patients worldwide are at risk of Diabetic Retinopathy (DR) – the fastest growing cause of blindness. If caught early, the disease is completely treatable. The problem? Medical specialists capable of detecting DR are rare in many parts of the world where diabetes is prevalent.

Using a dataset of 128,000 images Google’s Accelerated Science Team trained a deep neural network to detect DR from retinal photographs. The results delivered by the algorithm (black curve) were slightly better than expert ophthalmologists (colored dots)…

Specifically the algorithm has a F-score of 0.95 and the median F-score of the eight expert ophthalmologists was 0.91.

As richer datasets become available for the neural network to learn from, as 3D imaging technology like Optical Coherence Tomography becomes available all over the world to provide more detailed view of the retina, just imagine how transformative the impact will be.

Literally millions upon millions of people at risk of blindness will have access to AI-Powered technology that can create a different outcome for their life – and their families.

#omg

A recent incredible article on this topic is in my beloved New Yorker magazine: A.I. VERSUS M.D. You *should* read it. I’ll jump to a part of the article that altered my imagination of possibilities.

An algorithm created by Sebastian Thrun, Andre Esteva and Brett Kuprel can detect keratinocyte carcinoma (a type of skin cancer) by looking at images of the skin (acne, a rash, mole etc.). In June 2015 it got the right answer 72% of the time, two board-certified dermatologists got the right answer for the same images 66% of the time.

Since then, as they outlined in their report published in the prestigious journal Nature, the algorithm has gotten smarter across even more skin cancer types – and consistently performs better than dermatologists.

Most cancers are fatal because they are detected too late, just imagine the transformative impact of this algorithm sitting in the cloud easily accessible to all humanity via their five billion smartphones. This dream come true: low-cost universal access to vital diagnostic care.

Oh, and here’s a profoundly under-appreciated facet of all this. These health algorithms (including and beyond the one above), are incredible at corner cases, the rare long-tail anomalies. They don’t forget what they have seen once or “rarely.”

This is just a little bit of context for the key point.

A dermatologist in a full-time practice will see around 200,000 cases during her/his lifetime. With every case she sees, she’ll ideally add to her knowledge and grow her diagnostic skills.

Our very human problem is that every new dermatology resident starts almost from scratch. Some textbooks might be updated (while comfortably remaining a decade of more behind). Some new techniques – machines, analytical strategies – might be accessible to the resident. But, the depth and breadth of knowledge acquired by the dermatologist at the end of her career with 200k cases, is almost completely inaccessible to the new resident. Even if they do a residency at an hospital or with a old dermatologist, a newly minted dermatologist will only be a little better than when the old one left school.

Consider this instead: The algorithm above processed 130,000 cases in three months! And every day it will get smarter as it’ll have access to the latest (and more) data. Here though is the magical bit. Every single new algorithm we bring online will have total access to all knowledge from previous algorithms! It’s starting point will be, what I call, Complete Day One Knowledge.

As it gets more data to learn from, as it has access to more compute power, it will get smarter and build upon that complete knowledge. The next version of the algorithm will start with this new high mark.

There is nothing equivalent to Complete Day One Knowledge when it comes to humans.

Combine having Complete Day One Knowledge with Collective Continuous Learning (networked hardware or software all learning at the same time) and it should take you five seconds to realize that we are in a new time and place.

Whatever form AI takes, it will always have access to complete knowledge and through the network each instance will make all others smarter every single instance/moment of its existence.

Humans simply can’t compete.

That’s the BFD.

Stop. Think. If you disagree even slightly, scroll back up and read the post again.

It is imperative that you get this not because of what will happen in 10 years, but what is happening today to the job you have. If you still disagree, scroll down and post a comment, I would love to hear your perspective and engage in a conversation.

Bonus 1: There is an additional valuable lesson related to open-loop grasp selection and blindly executing it vs. incorporating continuous feedback (50% reduction in failure rates!). The two videos are worth watching to see this in action.

Bonus 2: While are on the subject of objects… Relational reason is central to human intelligence. Deepmind has had recent success in building a simple neural network module for relational reasoning. This progress is so very cool. Additionally, I was so very excited about the Visual Interaction Network they built to mimic a human’s ability to predict. (If you kick a ball against the wall, your brain predict what will happen when the ball hits the wall.) The article is well worth reading: A neural approach to relational reasoning. Success here holds fantastic possibilities.

Wait. So are we “doomed”?

It depends on what you mean by doomed but: Yes. No. Yes, totally.

Artificial Intelligence will hold a massive advantage over humans in the coming years.

In field after field due to Collective Continuous Learning and Complete Day One Knowledge (not to mention advances in deep learning techniques and hardware :)), AI will be better at frequent high-volume tasks.

Hence, the first yes.

Neuralink at the moment is a concept (implantable brain-computer interface). But many experts (like Ray Kurzweil) believe some type of connection between our human brain and “intelligence, data, compute power in the cloud” will be accessible to humans.

I humbly believe that when that happens, over the next few decades (think 2050), humans could get to parity with AI available at that time. We might even have an advantage for some time (if only because I can’t let go of the thought that our brains are special!).

Hence, the no.

As we head towards the second half of the current century, AI will regain the lead again – and keep it for good. I don’t have the competency to judge if that will be AGI or Superintellignece or some other variation. But, with all other computing factors changing at an exponential rate it is impossible that intelligence will not surpass the limitations of humans and human brains (including the one with a version of Neuralink).

Here’s just one data-point from Jurgen Schmidhuber: Neural networks we are using for Deep Learning at the moment have around a billion neural connections compared with around 100,000 billion in the human cortex. Computers are getting 10 times faster every 5 years, and unless that trend breaks, it will only take 25 years until we have a recurrent neural network comparable with the human brain. Just 25 years.

Hence, the yes totally.

I have a personal theory as to what happens to humans as we look out 150 – 200 years. It is not relevant to this post. But, if you are curious, please ask me next time you see me. (Or, sign up for my weekly newsletter: The Marketing < > Analytics Intersect)

AI: A conversation with a skeptic.

Surely some of you think, to put it politely, that I’m a little bit out there. Some of you’ve heard the “hype” before and are deeply skeptical (AI went through a two decade long tundra where it failed to live up to every promise, until say 2010 or so). Some of you were promised Programmatic was AI and all it did was serve crap more efficiently at scale!

I assure you, skepticism is warranted.

Mitch Joel is the Rock Star of Digital Marketing, brilliant on the topic of media, and a very sweet human being. Amongst his many platforms is a fantastic podcast called Six Pixels of Separation. Our 13th podcast together was on AI. Mitch played the role of the resident skeptic and I played the role of, well, the role you see me play here.

If you can think of a skeptical question on this topic, Mitch asked it. Give the podcast a listen…

(Play at Six Pixels of Separation)

As you’ll hear multiple times, a bunch of this is a matter of thinking differently about the worldview that we’ve brought with us thus far. I share as many examples and metaphors I could to assist you in a journey that requires you to think very differently.

If you are still skeptical about something, please express it via comments below. Within the bounds of my competency, I’ll do my best to provide related context.

Ok, ok, ok, but what about the now? (Professional)

While I look at the future with optimism (even 150 years out for humans), what I’m most excited about is what Machine Learning and Deep Learning can do for us today. There are so many things that are hard to do, opportunities we don’t even know exist, the ability to make work that sucks the life out of you easier, better, smarter, or gone.

In a recent edition of my newsletter, TMAI, I’d shared a story and a call to arms with specific recommendations of what to do now. I’ll share it with you all here with the hope that you’ll jump-start your use of Machine Learning today…

I lived in Saudi Arabia for almost three years. Working at DHL was a deeply formative professional experience. My profound love of exceptional customer service, and outrage at awful customer experiences, can be directly sourced to what I learned there.

Saudi Arabia is a country that saw massively fast modernization. In just a few years, the country went from camels to cars. (I only half-jokingly say that Saudis still ride their cars like camels – and it was scary!).

Think about it for a moment.

From camels to cars. No bicycles. No steam engines. None of the other in-betweens other parts of the world systematically went through to get to cars. They were riding camels, then they were riding cars. Consider all the implications.

We stand at just such a moment in time in the business world. You know just how immersed and obsessed I am with Artificial Intelligence and the implications on marketing and analytics. It truly is a camels to cars type moment in my humble opinion (it might even be a camels to rockets moment, but let me be conservative).

Yet, executives will often give me examples of things they are doing, and they feel satisfied that they are with it, they are doing AI. When I probe a bit, it becomes clear very quickly that all they are doing is making the camels they are riding go a little faster.

That all by itself is not a bad thing – they are certainly moving faster. The problem is they are completely missing the opportunity to get in the car (and their competitors are already in cars).

It is important to know the difference between the two – for the sake of job preservation and company survival.

Here are a handful of examples to help you truly deeply internalize the difference between these two critical strategies…

If you are moving from last-click attribution to experimenting with first-click or time-decay, this is trying to make your camel go faster. Using ML-Powered Data-Driven Attribution and connecting it with your AdWords account so that action can be taking based on DDA recommendations automatically, you are riding a car.

(More on this: Digital Attribution's Ladder of Awesomeness)

If you are moving to experimenting with every button and dial you can touch in AdWords so that you can understand how everything works and you can prove increase in conversions while narrowly focusing on a few keywords, you are making your camel go faster. Switching to ML-powered Smart Targeting, Smart Creative and Smart Bidding with company Profit as the success criteria, for every relevant keyword identified automatically by the algorithm, you are riding a car.

Staffing up your call center to wait for calls from potential customers is making your camel go faster. Creating a neural-network that analyzes all publicly available data of companies to identify which ones are going to need to raise debt, and proactively calling them to pitch your company's wonderful debt-financing services is riding a car.

Hand picking sites to show your display ads via a x by x spreadsheet that is lovingly massaged and now has new font and one more column on Viewability, is making your camel go faster. Leveraging Machine Learning to algorithmically figure out where your ad should show by analyzing over 5,000 signals in real time for Every Single Human based on human-level understanding (die cookies die!), is riding a fast car.

(To see a delightful rant on the corrosive outcomes from a Viewability obsession, and what you might be sweeping under the carpet, see TMAI #64 with the story from P&G.)

Asking your Analysts to stop puking data, sorry I mean automate reporting, and send insights by merging various data sets is making the camel go faster. Asking your Analysts to just send you just the Actions and the Business Impact from those Actions is riding a car. Asking them to shift to using ML-powered products like Analytics Intelligence in GA to identify the unknown unkonwns and connecting that to automated actions is riding a rocket.

If you are explicitly programming your chatbot with 100 different use cases and fixed paths to follow for each use case to improve customer service, that is making the camel go faster. If you take the datasets in your company around your products, problems, solutions, past successful services, your competitors products, details around your users, etc. etc. and feed it to a deep learning algorithm that can learn without explicit programming how to solve your customer's service issues, you are riding a car.

I, literally, have 25 more examples… But, you catch my drift.

I do not for one moment believe that this will be easy, or that you'll get a welcome reception when you present the answer. But, one of two extremely positive outcomes will happen:

1. You'll get permission from your management team to stop wasting time with getting the camel to go faster, and they'll empower you to do something truly worth doing for your company. Or…

2. You'll realize that this company is going to suck the life out of your career, and you'll quietly look for a new place to work where your life will be filled with meaning and material impact.

Win-Win.

Hence, be brutally honest. Audit your current cluster of priorities against the bleeding edge of possible. Then answer this question: Are you trying to make your camel go faster, or jumping on to a car?

While Machine Learning has not solved world hunger yet, and AGI is still years away, there are business-altering solutions in the market today waiting for you to use them to create a sustainable competitive advantage.

Ok, ok, ok, but what about the now? (Personal)

If this post has not caused you to freak-out a tiny bit about your professional path, then I would have failed completely. After all, how can the huge amount of change mentioned above be happening, and your job/career not be profoundly impacted?

You and I have a small handful of years when we can create a personal pivot through an active investment of our time, energy and re-thinking. If we miss this small window of opportunity, I feel that the choice will be made for us.

This blog is read by a diverse set of people in a diverse set of roles. It would be difficult to be personal in advice/possibilities for each individual.

Instead, here’s a slide I use to share a collection of distinct thought during my speaking engagements on this topic…

In orange is a summary of what “Machines” and humans will be optimally suited for in the near-future. (Note the for now.) Frequent high-volume tasks vs. tackling novel situations.

In green, I’m quoting Carlos Espinal. I loved how simply and beautifully he framed what I imagine when I say tackle novel situations.

Over the last 24 months, I’ve made an whole collection of conscious choices to move my professional competencies to the right of the blue line. That should give me a decade plus, maybe more if Ray is right about Cloud Accessible Intelligence. Beyond that, everything’s uncertain. :)

Summary.

I hope you noticed I ended the above paragraph with a smiley. I’m inspired by the innovation happening all around us, and how far and wide it is being applied. I am genuinely excited about the opportunities in front of us, and the problems we are going to solve for us as individuals, for our businesses, for our fellow humans and for this precious planet.

In my areas of competence, marketing, analytics, service and sales, I can say with some experience that change is already here, and much bigger change is in front of us. (I share with Mitch above how long I think Analysts, as they are today, will be around.) I hope I’ve convinced you to take advantage of it for your personal and professional glory.

(All this also has a huge implication on our children. If you have kids, or play an influencing role in the life of a child, I’d shared my thoughts here: Artificial Intelligence | Future | Kids)

The times they are a changin'.

Carpe diem!

As always, it is your turn now.

Were Collective Learning and Complete Day One Knowledge concepts you’d already considered in your analysis of AI? Are there other concepts you’ve identified? Do you think we are doomed? Is your company taking advantage of Deep Neural Networks for marketing or analytics or to draw new value from your core back-office platforms? What steps have you taken in the last year to change the trajectory of your career?

Please share your insights, action-plans, critique, and outlandish predictions for the future of humanity, :), via comments below.

Thank you.

The Artificial Intelligence Opportunity: A Camel to Cars Moment is a post from: Occam's Razor by Avinash Kaushik

from Occam's Razor by Avinash Kaushik http://ift.tt/2wbcNae #Digital #Analytics #Website

#Analytics #Occam's Razor by Avinash Kaushik. Web Analytics #Tracking #Metrics #Performance

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nathandgibsca · 8 years ago

Text

The Artificial Intelligence Opportunity: A Camel to Cars Moment

In this post, I’ve organized my thoughts into these six clusters:

There is a deliberate flow to this post, above. If you are going to jump around, it is ok, but please be sure to read the section below first. You won’t regret it.

Ready to have your mind stretched? Let’s go!

What’s the BFD?

They are crucial in being able to internalize the depth and breadth of the revolution, and why we strengths AI brings are a radical shift beyond what humans are capable of.

The first eye-opening learning for me came from the Google Research team’s post on Learning from Large-Scale Interaction.

The one-handed robots in this case had to learn to pick up objects.

Here’s the video…

youtube

(Play on YouTube)

It took just 3,000 robot-hours of practice to see the beginnings of intelligent behavior.

What’s intelligent behavior of a CNN powered one-handed robot?

Among other things, being able to isolate one object (a stapler) to successfully pick-up a Lego piece. You’ll see that at 15 seconds in this video…

youtube

(Play on YouTube)

Or, learning how to pick up different types of objects (a dish washing soft sponge, a blackboard eraser, or a water glass etc.).

For a clear way for me to capture this lesson, I call this Collective Learning.

It is very powerful.

In neither case will there be anything close to Collective Learning when it comes to humans.

Humans also do not posses this continuous closed loop: Do something. Check outcome (success or failure). Actively learn from either, improve self. Do something better the next time.

Collective Continuous Learning. An incredible advantage that I had simply not thought through deeply enough.

Here’s the second BFD.

Specifically the algorithm has a F-score of 0.95 and the median F-score of the eight expert ophthalmologists was 0.91.

Literally millions upon millions of people at risk of blindness will have access to AI-Powered technology that can create a different outcome for their life – and their families.

#omg

This is just a little bit of context for the key point.

A dermatologist in a full-time practice will see around 200,000 cases during her/his lifetime. With every case she sees, she’ll ideally add to her knowledge and grow her diagnostic skills.

There is nothing equivalent to Complete Day One Knowledge when it comes to humans.

Whatever form AI takes, it will always have access to complete knowledge and through the network each instance will make all others smarter every single instance/moment of its existence.

Humans simply can’t compete.

That’s the BFD.

Stop. Think. If you disagree even slightly, scroll back up and read the post again.

Wait. So are we “doomed”?

It depends on what you mean by doomed but: Yes. No. Yes, totally.

Artificial Intelligence will hold a massive advantage over humans in the coming years.

Hence, the first yes.

Hence, the no.

Hence, the yes totally.

AI: A conversation with a skeptic.

I assure you, skepticism is warranted.

If you can think of a skeptical question on this topic, Mitch asked it. Give the podcast a listen…

(Play at Six Pixels of Separation)

If you are still skeptical about something, please express it via comments below. Within the bounds of my competency, I’ll do my best to provide related context.

Ok, ok, ok, but what about the now? (Professional)

Think about it for a moment.

That all by itself is not a bad thing – they are certainly moving faster. The problem is they are completely missing the opportunity to get in the car (and their competitors are already in cars).

It is important to know the difference between the two – for the sake of job preservation and company survival.

Here are a handful of examples to help you truly deeply internalize the difference between these two critical strategies…

(More on this: Digital Attribution's Ladder of Awesomeness)

(To see a delightful rant on the corrosive outcomes from a Viewability obsession, and what you might be sweeping under the carpet, see TMAI #64 with the story from P&G.)

I, literally, have 25 more examples… But, you catch my drift.

I do not for one moment believe that this will be easy, or that you'll get a welcome reception when you present the answer. But, one of two extremely positive outcomes will happen:

1. You'll get permission from your management team to stop wasting time with getting the camel to go faster, and they'll empower you to do something truly worth doing for your company. Or…

2. You'll realize that this company is going to suck the life out of your career, and you'll quietly look for a new place to work where your life will be filled with meaning and material impact.

Win-Win.

Ok, ok, ok, but what about the now? (Personal)

This blog is read by a diverse set of people in a diverse set of roles. It would be difficult to be personal in advice/possibilities for each individual.

Instead, here’s a slide I use to share a collection of distinct thought during my speaking engagements on this topic…

In orange is a summary of what “Machines” and humans will be optimally suited for in the near-future. (Note the for now.) Frequent high-volume tasks vs. tackling novel situations.

In green, I’m quoting Carlos Espinal. I loved how simply and beautifully he framed what I imagine when I say tackle novel situations.

Summary.

(All this also has a huge implication on our children. If you have kids, or play an influencing role in the life of a child, I’d shared my thoughts here: Artificial Intelligence | Future | Kids)

The times they are a changin'.

Carpe diem!

As always, it is your turn now.

Please share your insights, action-plans, critique, and outlandish predictions for the future of humanity, :), via comments below.

Thank you.

The Artificial Intelligence Opportunity: A Camel to Cars Moment is a post from: Occam's Razor by Avinash Kaushik

from SEO Tips https://www.kaushik.net/avinash/artificial-intelligence-opportunity-camel-to-cars-moment/

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