#she also won in the OK Senior category

[cadillacjohnf1]

Just a quick post to point out that yesterday, 14 year-old Luna Fluxa Cross became the first female to win an FIA International Championship since 1966!

[nanoka12]

Kaori Sakamoto “I want to see the view from the podium”; Mai Mihara “Even so, I will not lose heart”

Their thoughts upon the Olympics-- Together they aimed for the grand stage of the Olympics, as close friends, and also rivals who devoted all their youth to figure skating. One of them grasped her dream, while the other did not fulfill her dream. Both of them overwhelmingly full of words of gratitude towards the other. And then once again, they will start their journey towards their respective dreams. 

(Translator’s note: for context, this article was published in early February 2018, just before the PyeongChang Olympics)

They are always smiling when they are together. Meeting when they were in elementary school, for 10 years they have encouraged each other along they way and worked hard together in training until now. 

This season, both of them envisioned the same target, and had moved forward with the vow of standing on the grand stage together.

“My only full day of rest was on 1 January. The solid sense of becoming Japan’s representative welled up greatly within me, and I began to think “Let’s do it”. ”

Two weeks after the Japanese National Championships, on 6 January, Kaori Sakamoto said this with a laugh.

The Japanese National Championships last December had also served as the selection for the representatives to the PyeongChang Olympics. Sakamoto, with a perfect performance in the SP had headed into the FS in 1st place. In the FS, amidst the further pressure of being the last to skate, she skated cleanly except for an underrotated jump and finished in 2nd place overall. Splendidly, she had won one of the spots to the PyeongChang Olympics.

“I thought there was no greater pressure than to be the last to skate. While thinking that I’ll definitely be nervous, and in reality, in the interval until the FS, unknowingly I had become very nervous, to the extent that I thought I’ll surely fail if I continue like this.  However, when the time came for my coaches to send me off at the rink, the moment that Nakano-sensei said to me “Kao can definitely do it. You have practiced for it, haven’t you?��, I thought to myself “Ah, indeed, because I’ve worked hard in practice it will be ok if I perform it just like in practice”, and the excess energy just fell away.”

Last season she had won bronze medals at both JGPF and Junior World Championships. For this season in which her Senior debut overlapped with the Olympic year, Sakamoto set her eyes on “Going to the Olympics” as her goal.

“The Youth Olympics (in 2016) was the first time I saw uniforms, bags, and the ice rink with the Olympics symbol on them, and it brought forth thoughts of “Ah, this is the atmosphere of the Olympics. I want to compete at the real Olympics”.”

Within herself, the sense of anxiety was tremendous. What bewildered her the most was the atmosphere of Senior competition.

“It’s completely different from Juniors. For example, at last season’s Junior World Championships, the two Men’s skaters and the three of us Ladies’ skaters, as well as the representatives in Ice Dance and Pairs, all of us would gather together and go for meals, and it was all very friendly. However, in Seniors everyone does things on their own. When I go to the rink, the atmosphere felt prickly and it was difficult to get used to it. I could not focus at all, was unable to move as I intended and was swept away by other skaters and so on...”

As Sakamoto was not exempted from having to qualify for the National Championships, she had no other option than to start competing at regional competitions within Japan. As she was also competing at international events, she competed at more events than anyone else this season. Looking back at it later, this had the beneficial effect of making her get used to competitions.

“I became able to think that “I will also perform it” and made my way here. However, although I pretty much got accustomed to it...”, she said with a wry smile. 

For Sakamoto who felt a sense of loneliness during competitions, she had a friend who became a support. This was Mai Mihara. Being together at their daily training became strength for her. As the competitions they were assigned to were different, they were separated when either traveled to compete. During those times, they exchanged messages via SNS, sometimes they were congratulations, and sometimes they were words of encouragement.

 “I think I am here because Mai-chan is here.”

The first meeting of the two of them who have formed such strong bonds traces back to 10 years ago. When Sakamoto, who had started skating at age 4 was 7 years old, Mihara who was one year older joined the same club she was in.

“A child with a strong spirit has come here.” In her words, this was her first impression (of Mihara).

“She had extremely strong feelings of hating to lose, ever since she was small Mai-chan was a child with the sentiment of absolutely wanting to be number one. As for myself, at that time I really did not have any such feelings of “I absolutely must win”, and was just skating without any purpose. (laughs)”

Mihara’s presence induced a change in Sakamoto’s attitude.

“Although she entered the club later, she became skillful earlier than me. One of the barriers in figure skating is whether one can master the 2A or not. Although I took two and a half years, Mai-chan got her 2A after just slightly more than a year. At that time her speed of improvement was totally different from mine, and as she was also the one who got her five triples first, since then I’ve been chasing after her.”

She describes Mihara who made her take skating seriously in these words,

“We are always training together, she is a rival who is always close by. There isn’t a more beneficial environment than this. Although she is a rival, at the same time she is a friend. I really think every day that it is great that Mai-chan is here.”

She had changed her hairstyle after the Japanese National Championships. 

“I think it was on 29 December, around that time I had it cut. I got my fringe cut by about 20cm. As there’s no parting, it felt fresh. Perhaps I cut it as a fresh start.”

Mihara who said these words smiled wryly at Sakamoto’s description of her as “ A child with a strong spirit”. 

“I wasn’t that strong in spirit. Although I don’t know why she has that image of me. (laughs)”

Her first impression of Sakamoto was “Someone who rotated with ease, a skillful child.” She also wanted to become similarly skillful.

Last season, Mihara as a first year Senior achieved her debut and first victory at the Four Continents Championship. At the World Championships, despite starting far behind the leaders in 15th place after the SP, she finished in 5th place overall after a performance in the FS that brought the arena to its feet in a standing ovation. Along with the fact that she very rarely made mistakes, she had left a striking impression.

However at a turn, this season had become a year of struggles.  What had become the source of her stumbles was her SP. She would make mistakes in it during competitions, and even though she would make up some of the lost points in her FS, her results faltered.

She had thought since before the season began that the SP was an issue to tackle. The level of difficulty of transitions between elements had been raised, and so had the overall level of her programme. Separately, she struggled with expressing the genre of tango. Although her choreographer requested for her to express “the psychology of an adult woman”, for her “I couldn’t really visualise it...”. When asked whether it was a case of there being aspects she could not engage with despite trying hard, she denied it, saying “The choreographer chose it as he believed I could do it; it’s only that my level is too low.”

After intense practice following her 4th place finishes at both the Cup of China and Internationaux de France on the Grand Prix Series, she was determined to have “no mistakes” at the Japanese National Championships. However, she made a mistake on her 2A in the SP, and was not able to fully overcome it.

“I think I rushed into the jump. I was extremely anxious. It wasn’t even the first jump, and moreover I had not made a mistake on the axel previously, and I wondered why (I made this mistake).”

She was in 7th place after the SP.

“I was really frustrated, and thought about a lot of things. It was difficult to put it out of my mind and refocus. But the theme of my FS was the image of an angel skating and hoping for peace, and from the moment I thought that there isn’t any angel who would skate with a sad face I calmed down.”

She said she had only one thought in her mind as she went into the FS,

“I thought that not just the Olympics, but I probably would not be sent to the Four Continents or the World Championships as well, so the FS at the Japanese  National Championships will be my last performance this season.”

With a superb performance, she was 3rd in the FS, and finished in 5th place overall. 

“But I was regretful. Especially about the SP. I wanted to do this season over again. Once again, from the time we started choreographing the SP.”

Mihara murmured these words softly.

The moment the Olympic representatives were announced, Sakamoto looked fixedly at the ground

For the two of them who had set their eyes on the same goal, their paths separated on the final day of the Japanese National Championships, 24 December.

At 10 pm, the competitors from all the events were gathered in one room at the venue. Sakamoto recalled that the top 6 finishers in the Ladies category were told to be there.

“The skaters, their coaches and JSF officials were all there in one room. I waited nervously while thinking hurry up, hurry up. My confidence regarding being chosen or not was fifty-fifty. I had not really achieved great results to date, and it was also my first year in Seniors.”

The announcement of the representatives to the Olympics, the World Championships, and the Four Continents Championships began.

“It felt like which competition, Ladies’ singles, who and who, were read out briefly without waiting for the words to settle.”

The announcement started with the representatives for the PyeongChang Olympics. After Satoko Miyahara whose spot was already confirmed as she had met the criteria (of winning the National Championships), she heard “Ladies singles, Kaori Sakamoto”. However, a smile was nowhere to be seen on Sakamoto’s face.

“I was like that before my name was called, and also after my name was called.”

She kept her eyes on the ground. Because skaters who were not chosen to be the representatives were in the room. And Mihara was also there. 

“I could not look directly at Mai-chan.”

As the skaters selected to the Olympic team were to be presented to the audience at the venue, they were asked to quickly prepare to go onto the rink. 

“As I rushed to get ready, I thought it was good that there was no time and I had to return to the rink. In the end, I did not see her expression even once.”

Mihara had the following recollection of the same scene,

“I was happy just to be able to go to that room, and very happy when I was chosen for the Four Continents Championships.”

But there was something that made her even happier.

“It was when Kao-chan’s name was called. I thought it would be great if Kao-chan was chosen.”

Mihara called out to Sakamoto who was putting on her skates in the backstage area behind the rink. She said “Congratulations. I am happy that my friend who trains together with me will go to the Olympics.”

Sakamoto’s reply to these words were “ “Thank you.” In any case, there was only thankfulness.”

Sakamoto describes her thoughts regarding the Olympics in these words,

“I don’t have any pressure. It’s a lie, there totally is. (laughs) I was chosen as I did not make major mistakes at Skate America and the Japanese National Championships and this was regarded well in appraisal. Therefore I think it is unacceptable if I don’t perform well. Just like at the Japanese National Championships, I want to be able to be joyful together with Nakano-sensei and Graham-sensei in the Kiss and Cry.”

And then, she said “Just for one day, I would like to try becoming Hanyu-kun. I want to know how the view that can be seen from the podium is like.”

As for Mihara, she revealed her ambition for the Four Continents Championships. “I think the reason why until now I have not really been able to get into my SP in competitions is more due to emotional rather than technical aspects. I am really weak. And I think I don’t have strengths that other skaters do not have.”

She let out the word “weak”. This was a word I had never heard her say in any of her past interviews. However, at the moment someone admits their weakness, they are no longer weak.

“However,” Mihara continues, “no matter how weak I am, I will probably not lose heart. I think that will only happen when I’m near death and am dying. I think if skating is taken from me there will be nothing left.”

She added with a tranquil expression, “I will not lose heart. If I continue not losing heart, perhaps one day I will even enter the Guinness book of records? (laughs)”

During official practice at competitions, Mihara always climbs to the highest row of the spectator stands. 

“At the time when I was not certain whether to start skating, I went to watch a competition. I have the memory of the rink looking very small from a seat in the higher sections of the stands, and I climb up each time in order to verify how the people seated at the seats furthest from the rink see the performances. I want to convey the joy and happiness of being able to devote my life to skating, and to become a skater who can give a performance that touches people. I think if I can give performances I am able to be satisfied with the results will come, and I want to go to the Beijing Olympics (in 2022). But first, I want to skate my SP perfectly at the Four Continents Championships.”

And then, she talked about Sakamoto in these words, 

“I am always able to laugh when I’m with Kao-chan. Although I think we look like a comedy duo (laughs), she is kind and considerate, and therefore I can smile whenever we are together.” 

Sakamoto thinks of Mihara in the following way,

“To me, she is someone I cannot do without even from now on. If Mai-chan did not come to Kobe, I would not even have become a JSF-funded skater*. It is great that she is here.”

At the Four Continents Championships in late January, Sakamoto made her debut at the event and won it for the first time, proving that her performances at the Japanese National Championships were not just momentum. Mihara gave her best performance of her SP of the season, the SP she has struggled with, and with an overall 2nd place finish, etched out a start towards four years later.

This time, their paths parted. Nevertheless, what is unchanged is their believing in their respective futures, supporting each other, and encouraging each other along the way as they continue their journey. With thankfulness for meeting the best companion.

*The original term is 強化���手, which literally means skaters to be strengthened/developed. As far as I am aware this involves funding from the JSF so have chosen to use the less awkward phrase of “JSF-funded”.

Original article by Takaomi Matsubara, published in Sports Graphic Number vol. 945

[oakleyfugate]

The “A” Word

So a few nights ago, when I was walking to the gas station. I met someone who gave me a ride and they told me that they really looked up to me because their child has Aspergers and my current film career gives them hope. And while it made me proud, more proud than anything, in the back of my mind. A thought still lingers from my past. I’m not used to telling people about my Aspergers. I still am not. I don’t like talking about it. The only thing I tell people is that it makes me unaware of social norms and cues, and sometimes i’m too friendly or I talk too much. Also, you have to be blunt with me. I don’t take offense to it, I just don’t understand things sometimes. That's it.

It’s hard to open up about the other aspects of living with it day to day.  So to be considered an idol is odd to me in that aspect. So after years of writing and backtracking. I want to go over what happened to make me detest my condition for the longest time.

For many years, Aspergers was a blight that burned every bridge and hopes I had of ever fitting in or being normal. It is a lasting curse that haunts the back of my mind. Every interaction, every comment I make. Everything goes back to it. I wish I didn’t think that way. I’ve tried making it a positive but I simply cannot.

For most of my life, my diagnosis was used against me. The very moment I let someone know. My IQ was lowered 40 points. Maybe not intentionally, or at least I would like to think that. But people would talker slower to me. I would compare to a child being lectured but I don’t think people would treat a child like that. It was demeaning at best. My diagnosis’ use against me left me with an eternal disdain for it.

I spent years hating myself for it. Knowing I would never be able to show what I was capable of in school because of it. A few teachers literally treated me like I was incapable of understanding basic thought or speech. One openly called me retarded in front of the class several times. I wish I didn’t feel this way. I’ve tried for so long not to, but I can’t. Because it really crippled my ability to have a high school life.

Before I go into detail, I would like to state that a few teachers were wonderful. My fantasy lit teacher and my drama teachers were amazing. My math teacher from sophomore to junior year was amazing. My science teachers were both fantastic. My Appalachian Studies teacher was fantastic as well. The principals were always kind to me. If it wasn’t for them, I would have lost my mind. Thank you all so much should you be reading this. This and a few others I would mention but it’d give too much away, I love you with all of my heart! Other than that, teachers would fall into two categories. Ones that were fair and ones that discriminated against me

When I entered high school, it was a consolidated school, various schools combined. I would go from a class of 32 to almost 500 freshmen. My freshman year, I was homeschooled 4 days out of 5 for the first semester. My experiences in high school were sudden and jarring, to say the least. As a special ed student, I was a target not by students(minus one), but by teachers. Often insulting my intelligence. Yes, I do have problems socially. Yes, I did use to read much slower than most. Yes, I did not understand when I was talking too much. But it was clear I was a target by the teachers. Often being called out for simply not looking in their direction. Heavens forbid I write something down or drift my eyes across the room once.

They had an “aide” follow me around everywhere in high school. Under the guise of helping me write because my occupational skills are underdeveloped. The first aide was excellent, minus one huge violation of privacy. She would secretly write down EVERY INTERACTION I HAD with other students. If you know me, I love horror films. I study horror films. I make horror films now. But because of this, I was a target and had to watch my vocabulary. One day, I mentioned how cool it was that there were 3 Friday the 13ths in one year. Next thing I knew, I was in trouble for mentioning the horror franchise of the same name when I did not. Even with other students testifying in my favor, they would not admit they were wrong.

Upon realizing this, I asked to be voluntarily sent to the Alternative Education building, where trouble makers were sent. I willingly went to escape being monitored daily. The agreement between the principal and I was that I would go for 10 days and if I didn’t like it, I could come back. I went there and it was ok. But the main problem was that I had to set at a computer desk 90% of the time. Plus I was being bullied there too, though it was taken care of immediately. But my legs grew tired and I felt completely isolated when my cousin left.  I asked to return and was denied. Yes. The person over the special ed department denied me and used my aide’s observations to justify that I was not fit to return to high school. Because I didn’t get along with people(because who would approach someone with an aide hounding them, interrupting conversations and writing everything down).

This was the first time I felt sadness that didn’t go away. Usually, I would find something to cheer myself up. But I couldn’t. The thoughts of being lied to. Betrayal. A mix of emotions. The only good thing that happened was someone believed in me. One of the people in charge there was an amazing human being who fought for me courageously. That was the one thing that gave me hope.

They were able to keep me there for the rest of the year(2 and a half semesters)The second aide was trouble from the start. At times, she was nice. But she would constantly lecture me. If I didn’t have a pen out immediately “did you forget it?”. No, I just sat down. I will admit I was a teenager and was angsty, but being criticized constantly, talked down to, and anytime I got an answer wrong when called upon, she would say something like” oh he can’t help it”. It was public humiliation. I often hung out with the “bad boys” who got into trouble because they didn’t care about my condition. That one act of not judging led to me meeting some of my closest friends. And it led to a lasting life policy. Even if I don’t agree with people’s actions or views, I would never condemn or cut someone out of my life. Because I knew what that felt like.

It got worse, she would also antagonize other classmates. Often calling them on their language, one boy wore a South Park shirt with the show’s phrase “Respect my authoritah” and she demanded he turn it inside out. When he asked why, she said it was obscene. When the teacher came in, the aide told her that he was rude and insulting her when he was not. He got sent to the office and hated me since then. Another boy she taunted hit me in the back of the head after class as I was walking through the halls. I didn’t report it because I felt I deserved it.

Dealing with troubles at home and this left me with no peace and for the first time, I started developing depression. Despite my pleas. They would not get rid of the aide. I went three times to try. The first time I chickened out because I knew that it didn’t matter what they told me, they would tell my parents something else and nobody would believe me. It got to the point that I didn’t care if I died. At this point, it would make so many things less complicated for everyone else. That’s all I cared about.

By this time, I was in my junior year. The aide still followed. But I had a class I loved. Fantasy literature. That one class helped me in so many ways. It was perfect. The aide sat on the other side of the classroom. I got to learn about something I truly loved and developed a passion for. And I got to bond with people. For the first time, I got to experience a real high school class. And I loved it! The teacher was so amazing and treated me like an equal.

For the other hours of the day, it was a raging warzone.  My aide would either belittle me or another student, who then blamed me. It was fighting a battle on the losing side. At this point, I stopped caring. When she would make a comment, I’d make a retort. I’d refuse to do assignments if she insisted on helping. I would write them myself. Because that’s the official reason. I called her out for following me to the bathroom. Yes, that happened. I would publicly announce that she was writing what  I said and did. I met once again about getting rid of her. I just stated that I wanted to try things on my own in fear of if I did make a scene, they would find a way to retaliate like in freshman year. And I won. I got my freedom. And I got to spend the last semester of my high school life as a free man. It was bittersweet as I had so much taken from me. My senior year was amazing. People loved me. I got to belong. For 6 months.

And that is why I have struggled with Aspergers. I relate it to the song “Nutshell” by Alice in Chains written about the singer’s heroin addiction. In which people would gossip about his illness, leaving him to fight his mental battle alone. And how he had no privacy. And I feel the same way. Down to the lyrics, “if I can’t be my own, i’d feel better dead”.

I never liked talking about my diagnosis and still would rather avoid the subject. Because it has forever impacted my life. I still have self-loathing issues to this day. I am proud to have Aspergers now. It has helped my life in areas while hindering others. But I can not forgive the system that took vital years from my life and ruined so many chances of having friends and bonds. A system that took my gift and made me hate myself for it. I will tell anyone with children with Aspergers or Autism to never trust the school system.

I know this story is negative in tone, but don’t let your story be. Be proud to have that gift. You have a focus on something that others do not. Use that. Also, love yourself. It is a hard road but it’s well worth fighting to see what it’s at the end. 

[zeroviraluniverse-blog]

The U.S. women's hockey team hasn't won gold since 1998. Will the spell be broken in South Korea?

Visit Now - http://zeroviral.com/the-u-s-womens-hockey-team-hasnt-won-gold-since-1998-will-the-spell-be-broken-in-south-korea/

The U.S. women's hockey team hasn't won gold since 1998. Will the spell be broken in South Korea?

Passion forming with every tighten of the lace

Years of the same routine perfected today

Rituals that are practiced and shared behind locker room doors.

— Kacey Bellamy

It could have been a disaster.

Hurricane Irma was on a path toward the Tampa, Florida, area on Sept. 9, and authorities were bracing for a direct hit. As it happened, the best women’s hockey players in the United States had just begun training in Wesley Chapel, a few miles north of Tampa International Airport.

Even though the NHL’s Tampa Bay Lightning had decided to evacuate its players, Team USA decided to shelter in place at the Saddlebrook Resort, where they were staying. One agent who was worried about his clients told USA Today, “Why isn’t the women’s team evacuated? Is it because they are just girls … to me this is stupid, they are our Olympic team.”

But Reagan Carey, the general manager for the team, had thought it through, even going so far as to find out the number and the strength of the steel trusses in the shelter area at the Saddlebrook Resort. So on Sunday morning, Sept. 10, the team members abandoned their apartments for the shelter, joining other evacuees to wait out the storm, which lost steam from its original designation as a Category 4. Still, 80 mph winds howled outside the building as Irma passed over. The women played cards, visited with Hilary Knight’s bulldog puppy, Winston, in a separate pet area, and made hockey fans out of their fellow refugees. Captain Meghan Duggan later called it “a big sleepover,” and by the next morning, they were able to return to their quarters and their lives.

“We were kind of scared,” said Kacey Bellamy, the veteran defenseman and one of six players who are in Pyeongchang for their third straight Olympics. “But the negative turned into a positive. It was a great bonding experience for us, the kind of thing that brings a team closer together. Plus, I learned how to play [the card game] euchre.”

By Tuesday, they were back to practicing and helping out in the community. Irma faded into a metaphor for a team that has had to weather a lot of storms over the years.

There was the crushing loss to Canada in the gold-medal game in Vancouver eight years ago. And the devastating 3-2 overtime loss in Sochi in 2014 that gave Canada its fourth straight gold medal. And the battle with USA Hockey last spring, when the women threatened to boycott the 2017 IIHF world championships if they weren’t given living expenses, travel accommodations and medal bonuses befitting representatives of the United States of America.

Not only did they win that battle, but they also went to Plymouth, Michigan, for the world championships and beat Canada 3-2 in overtime in the final — earning the team’s fourth consecutive title. “We’ve been through a lot together,” said Bellamy, now an assistant captain on the team. “I think that’s made us stronger.”

Resilience is part and parcel of hockey, but for female players — who often start out playing with the boys, who give up the comfort of home, who fight off waves of challengers and adjust to a succession of coaches all to pursue their Olympic dreams — well, you just bounce off the boards.

You might even write a poem about the sport you love.

World champ and Olympian Kacey Bellamy (22) watched the gold medal slip away from her team to archrival Canada in two consecutive Winter Olympics. She’s looking for gold in Pyeongchang. AP Photo/Julio Cortez, File

Actions that are defined as the norm within the team

Replaying the past of one game, one play, one second

That has triggered one year of training against that one team.

It was a disaster.

What happened in Sochi’s Bolshoy Ice Dome on March 6, 2014, is excruciating to watch, even four years later. Team USA had a 2-0 lead on Team Canada late in the third period of the gold-medal game. But with 3:26 left in the game, Canada’s Brianne Jenner fired a shot that would’ve gone wide had it not ricocheted off Bellamy’s right leg and past goalie Jessie Vetter. Coach Katey Stone clapped her hands and told the team not to panic, that they were OK.

As time wound down, Canada pulled goalie Shannon Szabados, and Team USA’s Kelli Stack got off a clearing shot that headed for the empty net … and bounced off the left side of the left post. “When those things start to happen in the game of hockey,” Stone later said, “you start to wonder if it is your night.”

It wasn’t. Just 55 seconds away from finally beating Canada for the gold, Marie-Philip Poulin tied the score at 2-2 to send the game into overtime. Team USA had its chances in OT — the left-handed Bellamy almost ripped one past Szabados — but then the refs made some questionable calls, leaving the U.S. short-handed at just the wrong time. At 8:10 of overtime, Poulin fired the game winner past Vetter.

Imagine what it was like watching the Canadians celebrate and then waiting around to accept your silver medals.

“All that work, all that hope,” said Bellamy. “Gone just like that. It took me five months to get over it. March, April, May, June, July. I’m big on watching videos of games, but I didn’t look at that one until August. I needed to get my motivation back.”

Part of that motivation has to do with the team that beat the Americans, the team that always seems to beat them. USA vs. Canada in women’s hockey is one of the greatest rivalries in all of sports. It started way back in 1916 and captivated the world when women’s hockey debuted as an Olympic sport at Nagano in 1998. The U.S. won that gold-medal game, but the Canadians have won every Olympics since.

The rivalry is so intense that 10 fighting majors were handed out in one 2013 game, resulting in six U.S. players and five Canadians crammed into the penalty boxes. But they are also friends who share a love of the sport and often play on the same collegiate and pro teams. Caroline Ouellette and Julie Chu, one-time captains of Teams Canada and USA, respectively, first met at the Salt Lake City Games in 2002 and are now coaching at Concordia University in Montreal together while raising Liv Chu-Ouellette, born to Caroline last November.

After 20 years of rivalry, if it boils down to these two for the gold medal in Pyeongchang, who will have the edge?

Do Jordan Greenway and the NHL-less U.S. men have enough firepower to fend off Canada, Finland and OAR? And will the American women gain revenge on their archrival and strike gold for the first time since 1988? Here’s who will take home the hardware.

After helping Team USA to two world championships and a silver medal in Sochi, and then overcoming a crippling concussion, Amanda Kessel has her sights set on gold at the Pyeongchang Olympics. But off the ice, her future is a little more complicated.

2 Related

Both shielded by different armor

Separated by a simple borderline

Sharing the same frenzy for the sport and rivalry

Colors, countries, teammates

All united on the same ice

Bellamy, a women’s studies major at the University of New Hampshire, likes to write poetry in her spare time. “They’re mostly about nature and people,” she said. “But I did write this one about hockey.” In fact, USA Hockey used the poem for a video to promote the “Bring On The World” tour before the last Olympics.

That’s Bellamy’s voice narrating her words in the video, an ode to the challenges of the sport in general, and the rivalry in particular. There is a depth of feeling to the poem that explains why and how Bellamy and the other five three-timers have stayed at the top of the American team for so long, through three different coaches (Mark Johnson, Stone, Robb Stauber) and all the ups and downs.

“Eight years ago, I was just a rookie with my eyes wide open, in awe of where I was, who I was playing with,” said Bellamy. “Now I’m 31 and still in awe of the responsibility. The Olympics is about more than the rivalry with Canada. It’s about representing the country. It’s about showing people how beautiful women’s hockey can be. It’s about the little girls with sticks, the little girls we used to be.”

Two years ago, Bellamy wrote a powerful “Letter to My Younger Self” for The Players Tribune. Addressed to 15-year-old Kacey, she recalled leaving behind her family and friends in Westfield, Massachusetts, to attend the Berkshire School and how the first two weeks “are going to be the worst two weeks of your life.” She told her about the friends and coaches who changed her life, about getting her heart broken when she was cut from USA Hockey’s under-22 team, about using the rejection as motivation to make the senior national team.

“You’re going to play for the U.S. team for a long time,” she wrote. “But never take anything for granted. Make the most of the opportunities you have.”

Each playing for the crest on the front of the jersey

And sticking up for every name on the back

Relax. Just like in Tampa, it might not be the disaster they’re predicting.

Some people who care deeply about Team USA worry that Pyeongchang will be as much a disappointment as Sochi or Vancouver or Turin or Salt Lake City were. They wonder why Stauber, a former NHL goalie who assisted Stone in Sochi, didn’t name any female assistants to his staff. And while he did coach the team to the world championship last April, and beat Canada 5-1 to win the Four Nations Cup on Nov. 12, Team USA has lost the past four games to Canada in its pre-Olympic warm-up.

A 2-1 overtime loss to Canada at the Xcel Energy Center in St. Paul, Minnesota, on Dec. 3 was particularly painful because the tying goal was scored by Poulin and the winning goal by Jenner, their Sochi nemeses. And it happened in front of members of the 1998 USA Olympic team, who were honored between periods for the United States’ only gold medal.

Afterward, Stauber said, “For us, it’s not necessarily about the 20 years, but more about, ‘It’s time.’ We’ve got to bring home a gold medal. We’ve got a pretty good vision. We’re sticking with it, and we like our direction.”

That direction included the addition of three players since Irma: defenders Cayla Barnes and Sidney Morin and forward Haley Skarupa. When the final roster was named after the second period of the Winter Classic at Citi Field on Jan. 1, veterans Bellamy, Duggan, Knight, Monique Lamoureux-Morando, Jocelyne Lamoureux-Davidson and Gigi Marvin were on it, but forward Alex Carpenter, Team USA’s leading scorer in Sochi, and defender Megan Bozek were not — leading some to speculate that they did not buy into Stauber’s system.

Stauber stresses a controlled possession game that sometimes takes the puck back into the neutral zone. As for the lack of a female coach, he does rely on his veterans to help the younger players. Bellamy has been working with the 18-year-old Barnes, who had been getting ready to play for Boston College when she was asked to report to Wesley Chapel. “She’s wise beyond her years,” says Bellamy. “Very poised … she’s just wonderful to have around the locker room.”

While the recent results against Canada have been disappointing, it’s worth keeping in mind that in the American men’s last exhibition game with the Soviet Union before the 1980 “Miracle on Ice” game, Team USA was crushed 10-3.

In Pyeongchang, both archrivals beat Finland and the Russians in the first two games of Group A play — though there was some hand-wringing as the U.S. got off to slow starts in the first period of both games. It was Bellamy who broke the ice at 8:02 of the first period of the victory over the Russians, stepping into the attack off a pass from Jocelyne Lamoureux-Davidson and firing a seeing-eye shot past Russian goalie Valeria Tarakanova. Team USA then put the game away in the second period, thanks to a more aggressive mindset and two goals by Lamoureux-Davidson within six seconds — an Olympic record.

By winning those first two prelims, Canada and Team USA assured themselves of a place in the semifinals, meaning that their game tomorrow means nothing… and their next one everything.

“We’re starting with a clean slate in South Korea,” says Bellamy. “This time will be different.”

Or, as she once wrote:

Mistakes lead to success

Errors lead to victory

Pride leads to gold

[omgkeeem]

Inside Taekwondo

I was 9 years old when I got myself interested in martial arts. I’m a weird kid back then, showing off my fictional skills in our backyard alone at dark evening with dim lights all over. I was a fat kid that time (well, I still am. but not that much unlike before) And gladly my classmates didn’t have their guts on bullying me, instead they follow me and even respects me as if I’m their master. It’s really funny how it goes seeing myself a bossy one before. I’ve been sent to Principal’s office once, because of pulling on my classmate’s hair --the reason is he kept on blocking the blackboard on purpose where I am still taking down notes-- I didn’t intentionally pulled his hair with extreme force. Adrenaline I guess, who’ll don’t get mad right?. 

Later on 5th grade, I was 10 years old. I joined taekwondo, I was with my Nanny when I got myself on registration because Mom can’t take it that time for being too busy at school and it isn’t a big deal for me because I respect Mom and her career. It was mixed emotion that time, I was watching those kids with different colored belts around their waist, following their Instructor/Master’s command. At night, thoughts kept on flying in my mind, being too excited to start my first training. I was too occupied that time, thinking how I will boast it to my friends that I finally joined taekwondo. I badly wanted to be physical fit those time and to learn different kicks. 

Months inside taekwondo, everything turned out to be just great. At first, I was way way way too shy wearing my white belt with me. Oh I nearly forgot, I was a very silent person that time, well up ‘til now but it’s much worse before. “I’ll just go with the flow i guess”, I told myself. I remember how my Instructor encourages me to join the Unit meet when I stepped on my 6th grade, I was naive, obeying what all elders telling me, So I agreed. I was a Yellow belter, The fight came and it was very fortunate for me that I won the championship game. Motivations all over! shivers through my spines! All the proud from my families and friends came! it was absolutely brilliant. But, Unfortunately, I failed at Divisional meet. I guess I was being too proud of myself for winning my first award in taekwondo during the held Unit meet. I cried that time and been very down lately, but my instructor lifted my chin up and motivates me even more, to practice more because It was just an experience. “At least now, you knew what makes you lose. more training camille! you’ve got this.”. 

Summer, before I turn into Junior High School. I’ve trained harder, atleast 3 times a week. The revenge side has been with me the whole summer. School came, while waiting a long months to play. I focus on my studies first, I got high grades, balancing my role as a student and athlete. Luckily, heaven heard my prayer. I’ve finally selected as one of Taekwondo Regional Players after I won the battle against the Giants!. For snake’s sake, what I hate ‘till now is I’m lack of height hahaha. But, God guided me as if I was David battling against Goliath. 

The day came, when we, taekwondo team are obliged to attend a 7 weeks training outside school. There I realized, how hard taekwondo really is. That it’s not every time you’ll just lean unto someone’s shoulder when everything’s not fine. Taekwondo teaches me to be more independent, to step in life using my own feet. It was my first time, being separated with my mom, miiiiiiles away. I’m in Palawan just with my teammates, coaches and trainor. 

I hid in bathroom at late night evening that time, crying while talking to my mom at phone. Pleasing her to come as soon as possible. But it isn’t that easy because booking an airplane is way too expensive plus she’s at school, she can’t leave her students out of knowledge. We, players have an exclusive ship that time where we stayed in for 3 days before we got there in Palawan. So, my sister had no choice but to book an airplane, ignoring how expensive it was. I, again failed to win and happily brought home the Bronze Medal. “Maybe it’s not yet your time, ok?” My sister calmed me. Telling me how young i am and still have a lots of years to take over. My opponent is a graduating student that time, meaning if she lose the match, she wasn’t able to play next year anymore. I returned at school, receiving all their sweet smile as they congratulate me. My grades got even higher! just a great thing to have as a motivation at school. 

Summer before my 8th grade, I got very tired on attending training 3 times week. The reason is, my friends inside our gym slowly fading out. I mean, every other day, they just went up gone and not showing off their faces anymore. So we were like just 4 inside our gym unlike before that we’re in 20′s. Plus, my instructor trains me to teach the white belters and assist him every training. I had no choice but to follow to the fact that I’m not a fan of spending time with kids, unless they’re that easy to get their attention. I found the training that time, so boring, where I started to leave just for a moment, too. Weeks passed, my sister was so confused asking if we don’t have training schedule those time, there I realized and forgot that I was fully payed for 2 months training session. She scolded me, and I get her point. It was months when I returned at training. And it ripped me off seeing those kids level are already higher than me. I’ll never forget how my instructor welcomed me, “who are you?”  he joked and laughed right after. I know it was a joke but hell it hurts me. The way I feel before when I enter the gym turned out to be different. I felt like I was a noob or new comer. I cried at night regretting all those mistakes I’ve done. But I payed my instructor with hardwork and dedication on training which results a good feedback. But, Still, i didn’t make it to Regional meet again. 

I hated it being too conceited with myself. There I realized that God is challenging me. I realized my mistakes, I forgot to talk to God every before the fight, and everytime it happens, I always lose. Everytime I judge my opponent’s skill, I lose. I lose everytime I assumed that I will win. So I lost all my hopes, It ripped off my positive side. The reason why nearly quit Taekwondo. “Make yourself humble to god” my sister told me which woked me up again to reality. 

I trained continuously. I, again selected as Regional Player when I was in my 9th grade. I worked hard on 1 month training. And been praying every night until the fight came. Again, I lose, receiving all the tormenting words from my trainor, “idiot, stupid!”. Yh, t’was the first time someone called me that and I admit it was all my mistakes. I was covered up all with fear during that match, which gave me unconscious mind inside the rubber mat. Of course I cried again, thinking how much I worked hard on 1 month training and just ended up a loser inside a 2 minutes match. I was so ashamed that I didn’t brought home some medals, not even bronze. I was too guilty at every expenses my family spent for me and for all the knowledge and time that my instructors have shared for me. 

I returned home, and I just found myself staring outside the window, crying. Thinking that If I knew that I’ll just ended up a loser, I’ll rather just use that 1 and a half month time on school instead of training. I talked to God everyday, It just feels so good talking to God in a friendly conversational way while crying. It was as if his talking to you, too, but without voices. He’ll just makes you realize something and poop! there you go. 

I also talked to myself, weird but that’s how I lived my life. I told myself that when I got myself on 10th grade, I’ll just focus on my studies and prepare for my Senior High and aspired course on college. My decision is settled. play no more and go excel on academics!.

I am now a Grade 10 student. Whose living each day to the fullest as if there’ll be no tomorrow. I’ve gained awards and weight, LOL. Been elected as Class President, has joined Journalism and been very disgusted bringing myself on stages as muse, two times at least, both 1st and 2nd placer. No really, not being boastful but honestly I was very annoyed having them encourages me to participate on this kind of event which literally don’t suite my personality. But I’m somehow very thankful because it cured my Speech-anxiety and stage fright a 60 and a half percent. 

Months of success at academics, Idk but I felt like something’s missing and just found myself having a guts on participating the upcoming District meet. I trusted God, and he did never leave my side. Now, he let me joined at Divisional Tournament which I got two gold medals, and right after that God brought me again into National Age Group Taekwondo Tournament and did grant my wish to brought home the Gold and Bronze medal both in two categories I’ve joined, the poomsae and kyurogi. And he still did shower me so much blessings for I just won again yesterday on Divisional meet and selected again as Regional Player which brought me into tears! God did heard my prayer that this will be the last year where I’ll represent my town and province as a player. For I am planning to switch from different school for my Senior High and Career in taekwondo.  As my journey continuous... God knows what’s best for me and I will always stick to his plans for I know he has a better dream for me than mine. 

I thought joining taekwondo will just help me to be physical fit and gain knowledge on different kicks. But taekwondo did a lot for me, I realized that taekwondo is much wider than i think it was before. It transformed me from a shy and fearful one into a sociable and brave one. Taekwondo builds up my characteristic as a humble woman from a boastful one. Taekwondo teaches me how to treat everyone as a family and to stay positive at all times. It teaches me to manage time between school and career. 

Inside Taekwondo, You’ll never see it as a hobby, it’s more like a home where you and your family unites and fight together.

Taekwondo isn’t just a sport, It’s an art of rebuilding your character and conquering your fears at once. 

I wanted to thank God that taekwondo was sent to me for it sheltered me against fears and negativity. Indeed a life changing!

_

i am now on my way to blackbelt degree hihi 

©  omgkeeem

12am | 11/11/17

[theliberaltony]

via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited.

sarahf (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): Here at FiveThirtyEight, we’re interested in tracking presidential endorsements as they’re often a good indicator of which candidates the party is rallying behind.

So today let’s talk about the Democratic Party’s Kingmakers — or those endorsers that can make or break a candidate. First of all, who are they? And then second, what does a winning strategy in the endorsement primary look like? Should candidates prioritize endorsements from early-voting primary states? Does the type of office an endorser holds/held matter? Or is it all about the constituencies an endorser can bring to the table?

clare.malone (Clare Malone, senior political writer): What’s interesting to me is how few people have endorsed! I guess it’s still very early, but the clearest example I can point to of the endorsement primary already being underway is when all the candidates (or so it seemed) headed to Jim Clyburn’s South Carolina fish fry in June.

He, of course, is a big deal in the national party as well as in an early primary state.

And I think the fight over Clyburn is demonstrative of the battle over important black endorsers. In fact, between Kamala Harris, Cory Booker and Joe Biden, I’d say there is already a pretty big push to win endorsements from members of the Congressional Black Caucus.

natesilver (Nate Silver, editor in chief): Yeah, a Clyburn endorsement would definitely be in my top five or 10. But the thing about this year is that since Everybody’s Running, the endorsements you probably want the most are actually from the other candidates. In particular, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Biden, who all command large, loyal constituencies.

clare.malone: Very true, though the big candidate endorsements likely won’t happen until next summer, right?

Or next spring, if things shake out neatly.

galen (Galen Druke, podcast producer and reporter): At this point, it seems like a lot of these candidates are going to have enough money to keep them going well into the primary season, so I’m not holding my breath on those endorsements happening anytime soon.

clare.malone: Maybe, though some candidates might see the writing on the wall and they’ll want to have their endorsement actually matter.

Speaking of a BIG endorsement — and a new one at that — who Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez decides to back is going to be big. My guess is it will come down to Warren or Sanders, but she’s said that she wants to wait to endorse, so I’ll definitely be keeping an eye out to see what she does.

galen: An endorsement from AOC would definitely confer progressive bona fides on a candidate, so it’ll be important to see who she endorses. And as we talk about endorsers, it’s important that we keep in mind what they represent: a demographic group, an ideological wing of the party, a certain state, or say, a figurehead like Obama.

natesilver: I mean, Obama is THE kingmaker.

But I don’t know if he’s going to endorse.

If does though, he’s like 10x more important than any other endorsement.

sarahf: But will Obama endorse?!

galen: NO

Unless it is Biden vs. Marianne Williamson at the end.

natesilver: I could see some circumstances where he would.

Especially if, like, a candidate he liked was ahead, but it seemed like Democrats were headed toward a contested convention, and he wanted to avoid that.

clare.malone: Yeah, Obama could endorse by early summer next year if things are still looking very crowded.

There will certainly come a point in the primary season where people start writing think pieces along the lines of “Have Democrats learned any lessons from the GOP’s disastrous 2016 primary??”

People will CLICK on those.

sarahf: But to the point Nate made earlier about people dropping out of the race and how their endorsements could be some of the most important endorsements this cycle … I have a question: How come their endorsements don’t get extra points in our tracker?

I, for one, would think they’d have a higher point value based on what we’ve discussed so far.

But I digress!

galen: Agree. I don’t understand why we give former Presidents Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton the same number of points as Obama in the tracker.

So … explain that.

natesilver: I don’t think we should be thinking about this stuff in terms of the tracker.

The tracker tracks everyone, and we’re asking here if there are endorsements that carry SYMBOLIC and SUBSTANTIVE importance beyond that.

The value of endorsements isn’t in like “ohhh, Random Senator X endorsed Candidate Y,” it’s more that it’s a proxy for the “party deciding.” But some endorsements, e.g. Obama’s, really might persuade voters to think differently about the race.

sarahf: OK, so who are some other Democrats that might fall into this category, the “big names,” if you will?

We’ve got Obama, AOC and Clyburn.

galen: Apart from Barack, there is Michelle. Do you think the Obamas endorse together?

clare.malone: I think I disagree with Galen’s point about the weight of Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton’s endorsements.

Clinton’s endorsement might be toxic in today’s party, but Carter is still seen as a moral leader.

galen: I agree with that, but I still don’t think his endorsement is as powerful as Obama’s.

clare.malone: No.

natesilver: HiLlArY ClInToN

sarahf: Oooh, I know Clare was talking about Bill Clinton’s endorsement being toxic, but I’m not so sure Hillary Clinton’s endorsement would be much better.

natesilver: Oh, you guys are totally wrong, the Clinton endorsements would still be a big deal.

clare.malone: Well, Hillary’s endorsement would certainly carry more weight than Bill’s at this juncture. Even if Bill still resonates with some communities, his sins (that were kinda forgiven in the past) are viewed very differently today by party elites.

galen: I honestly couldn’t tell you how this would play out, but I think candidates will play it safe and just try to keep the Clintons out of the conversation.

It is worth remembering that as of the 2018 midterms, Hillary Clinton’s approval rating among the broader public was still in the mid-30s.

natesilver: But Clinton won the primary by a WIDE margin four years ago! And a lot of Democrats like her! They didn’t want her to run again, but they still like her!

clare.malone: I don’t think she’ll endorse until there’s a named nominee.

Though, who knows–she might want to make waves! She does seem to occasionally throw bombs.

galen: Who of the top four would actively seek her endorsement?

natesilver: I think Harris and Warren, in particular, would seek her endorsement.

clare.malone: Harris for sure.

Warren I’m less sure about, though you could be right, Nate.

sarahf: OK, last call for the heavyweights. Who else?

natesilver: NaNcY PeLoSi

galen: Proxies for heavy hitters also matter — Valerie Jarrett, Eric Holder, for example.

natesilver: Ohhhh I totally disagree on the proxies.

clare.malone: I like the idea of proxies…

Why, Nate?

natesilver: Because who the hell cares who, say, Valerie Jarrett endorses. Nobody knows who she is.

galen: But party people know who she is and they might take it as a sign of what “Obama world” is thinking.

And that matters.

natesilver: ZZZZZ

clare.malone: Oh, I have one.

Pod Save America.

If they endorsed, they would be decently influential as a group.

galen: Hooo boy

clare.malone: I’m serious.

They’re a big platform for a core slice of the party.

natesilver: WHAT ABOUT CHAPO

sarahf: Hold on, I think Galen has a point about proxies, especially if many of these heavyweight endorsers won’t endorse until later. Sure, many people might not know who Valerie Jarrett is (she’s one of Obama’s longest-serving advisors), but say she and others from “Obama world” come out in support of one candidate. That matters, no?

Or at least political journalists (aka us) will write about it.

clare.malone: It would drive mini news cycles (maybe…)

natesilver: It matters in the “party decides” sense but not in the “kingmaker” sense. And we’re debating king- and queenmakers today.

sarahf:

clare.malone: WHO IS MICHAEL DUKAKIS ENDORSING??????

sarahf: Warren. So that’s one heavyweight(?) down …

galen: Speaking of past presidential nominees … didn’t Walter Mondale endorse Amy Klobuchar?

natesilver: Mondale is for the Klob, yeah.

clare.malone: “The Klob” is the worst nickname ever.

Congrats.

sarahf: OK, let’s move away from who the heavyweights are (or aren’t) and back to the different endorsement strategies candidates should be using.

If a lot of these heavyweights are off the table, what lower-level king- and queenmakers should candidates be trying to win over now? Does it make sense to concentrate on just one state? Or maybe a state-specific strategy doesn’t matter?

galen: STATE KINGMAKERS

clare.malone: In Iowa, at least, you want people with a history of activism who drive people to the caucuses–so state lawmakers really matter there.

That’s why people always talk about the importance of courting activist types in those early states–it’s very retail politics driven.

galen: The upper Midwest just elected some new Democratic governors in 2018, who could make the argument that they know how to win those states as Democrats, and that they have a good sense for who should be the nominee.

I’m thinking Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan) or Tony Evers (Wisconsin).

natesilver: Yeah, Michigan seems like it’s a state that could be up for grabs.

galen: What if the Democratic governors of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania all endorsed together??

That could be kinda interesting

clare.malone: I don’t think it would happen, but sure! Interesting!

sarahf: What is a smart on-the-ground endorsement strategy at this point to win over these state kingmakers?

natesilver: Is there any strategy apart from kissing people’s asses a lot?

clare.malone: In the early states, a lot of national candidates go to local elected officials’ events, which makes the officials seem more high profile, in return for getting their on-the-ground/word-of-mouth push to voters.

So, yeah, ass kissing.

natesilver: Look, even Al Sharpton is getting a fair among of ass-kissing. That’s what this process involves.

clare.malone: What do you mean “even” Al Sharpton, Nate?

He’s a big name in Democratic politics.

natesilver: I mean that he’s pretty unpopular outside of narrow circles. Even in NYC, his favorability ratings are quite meh.

sarahf: So does this mean that candidates looking to have a strong performance in the early-voting states should concentrate their on-the-ground efforts there? Because I have to say, for all the talk of Iowa and New Hampshire as the first caucus and primary in the nation, it’s not exactly clear to me who the kingmakers are?

galen: Well, we know Clyburn is the kingmaker in South Carolina.

Perhaps Harry Reid is a kingmaker in Nevada?

And maybe there just fewer high-profile Democrats in Iowa and New Hampshire at this point?

clare.malone: Unions are big in the Nevada caucuses, too.

In 2016, Clinton heavily courted Latino members of unions, for instance.

So maybe in Nevada things are more organized around unions.

natesilver: Nevada is also sort of a machine state, so I think Reid is one of those endorsements that could matter a lot in a very direct sense.

Nevada is a pretty hard one to figure out otherwise.

clare.malone: I think in Iowa, at least, there are clearer kingmakers in the GOP primary — for instance, Steve King and conservative family organizations have tended to be very influential.

sarahf: And there doesn’t seem to be the same Democratic equivalent, right?

But maybe that’s because the endorsement primary in these early states works differently and involves a much broader array of endorsers, including state legislators, labor unions, interest groups and even celebrities.

And so, say, the union vote matters more than anyone prominent individual.

Or at least this is the “party decides” view.

galen: Can we talk about endorsements from #NeverTrump Republicans? Does anyone think that these endorsements could matter?

natesilver: WHO WILL BRET STEPHENS ENDORSE?!?!?!?!

WOULD YOU RATHER HAVE OBAMA’S ENDORSEMENT OR BRET STEPHENS’S?

clare.malone: Bret Stephens will endorse Bill Weld or something.

OR…MARK SANFORD!!!

I’m so excited about Mark Sanford running (potentially).

Never forget the Appalachian Trail.

natesilver: I tend to think the media will overrate the importance of those cross-partisan endorsements. But I also think they COULD matter. In many states, the primaries are open to independents and Republicans, or there isn’t party registration at all.

sarahf: I don’t think we’re going to see anyone making explicit appeals to Never Trumpers in the primary, though.

clare.malone: Yeah, I don’t think Biden would seek out John Kasich’s endorsements in the primary, but it definitely wouldn’t hurt in the general.

natesilver: If Biden were to win the primary, I think it’s probably going to be a big part of his message.

sarahf: So it seems as if when it comes to the endorsement primary, there are two parts of it: 1) You want to build a broad coalition of support in the early states amid core constituencies whether that’s activists, unions or the like. 2) But you also want that extra boost from king- and queenmakers, except they often wait until very late in the process to make their endorsement … so how do you set yourself up for success there?

galen: Promise cabinet positions and ambassadorships.

I’m joking.

clare.malone: …. but are you?

galen: Yeah, I might not be joking.

Because what else can you do? You can make them feel special by wining and dining them and offer them something for their endorsement, or you can start winning so that people feel like they are on the winning team when they endorse you.

The first is easier to do. Winning is harder.

natesilver: I think it’s maybe more idiosyncratic and random than that. These are famous people with big egos. You build relationships, network, ass-kiss and yeah, maybe you can promise a few people a cabinet job or ambassadorship or even (!!!!!!!) the vice presidency (!!!!!!!!!). But there’s not THAT much you can do beyond that.

To the extent you’re spending more time in X state, it’s for all sorts of reasons — mostly that you think you can win that state — and not to gain more endorsements there.

clare.malone: And you as the candidate don’t need to make promises of jobs–people will assume they have your ear/a shot at influence, etc.

People like to think that their support for you will matter if you win.

natesilver: And they also like to endorse winners.

Sometimes the endorsements that matter the most are the unexpected ones. Like, if Beto O’Rourke were to get a big, unexpected endorsement, that might help him quite a bit right now because he’s sort of sucking wind otherwise.

Or if Bernie were to get Hillary Clinton’s endorsement, that would shake things up!

galen: Is anyone willing to argue that endorsements don’t matter anymore in Trump’s America?

natesilver: IN TRUMP’S AMERICA ONLY WHITE WORKING CLASS VOTERS AT TRUCK STOPS IN YOUNGSTOWN, OHIO MATTER. WHO ARE THEY ENDORSING?

clare.malone: No, because here’s the thing: People like it when other people help them navigate the political process.

And I don’t mean this condescendingly–there is A LOT going on in this election and people have A LOT going on in their lives. So they form bonds of trust in people/institutions and use those to guide their decisions. It’s the same way a lot of us make big decisions.

In politics as in life, endorsements matter.

natesilver: Yeah, I really … endorse that comment from Clare.

Voters aren’t able to pay as much attention to the race as we reporter-editor-journo-analysts might because they Actually Have Lives. So having a trusted person or institution endorse a candidate matters a lot.

galen: I also agree with Clare. The lesson from 2016 was not that the party can’t decide, but that the party wasn’t coordinated enough to decide, at least on the GOP side.

natesilver: We wrote about this a lot when we launched our endorsement tracker.

There’s plenty of reason to think endorsements still matter.

Also, EVERYTHING IS DIFFERENT BECAUSE TRUMP is generally bad analysis, sorry, Galen.

galen: THAT WASN’T MY TAKE

natesilver: I JUST WANTED TO GET SOMEONE ELSE TO TALK IN ALL CAPS

clare.malone: I LOVE IT WHEN WE FIGHT

natesilver: IT WAS LONELY HERE

[spotlightsaga]

Kevin Cage of @spotlightsaga reviews... Drag Race (S09E07) 9021-HO Airdate: May 5, 2017 Ratings: 0.694 Million :: 0.3 18-49 Demo Share Score: 9/10 **********SPOILERS BELOW********** Ever had a really terrible day where your whole world is ripped apart? That was my day yesterday... And even though I've already watched '9021H0' & 'Ru Paul's Roast' (and purposefully have avoided writing reviews), I thought it was Friday... Or was wishing it was... As was like Please, GOD, get me home so I can watch these Drag Race bitches so they can lift me up, because lorrrrrd... I'm falling apart. I'm a struggling writer with two degrees taking whatever work I can get freelance writing, working at well known South Florida Bar on the weekends (and that job along with the 5 hour total commute a day through the dredges of Miami is killing me)... But Spotlight Saga is my baby, every dollar I make in everything goes to making this existential media online mag dream come true, and it is not cheap. I hate to turn this all about, 'ME ME ME ME MEEEEE' as Valentina would croon, but I gotta have my Alexis Michelle moments too and I really need my place where I can just let everything out and connect with you all... Avid fans of the show, readers of everything Spotlight Saga, and all the people at 'World of Wonder' and the contestants of the show that will see what I will say next. For almost two weeks, I have everyone in Miami saying, 'I'M ON SPEED TOO!', 96% have no idea what they're referencing but lawd, Trinity girl... And really all the contestants who made this episode such a success really have gotten me through a tough time through dealing with 3 deaths in the past week... And a sudden realization that my fight for Nina's treatment on the show was a reflection was something I was feeling at work and in life. I identify with you, Nina, because just like you, I'm talented, deal with with depression, and am a little bit crazy, girl. All your struggles that we see stripped down to the bone, especially on WOW's 'Untucked' don't go unnoticed. And I'm always here with open arms if you need me. You are beautiful, you are talented, and are going to get you some acting classes! Again, Drag Race & Untucked is my last living connection to the 'Gay World', and even though some of you shits send me death threats after I critique this show, it really is one of the only positive experiences in Gay Culture I have left. I love that we start out '9021HO' with the girls going back to the workroom, Alexis finally celebrating a well deserved win, Nina admitting her issues with getting in the way of her success, Shea Couleé delivering the 'I'ma lift you up in church and put you on the cross and crucify your ass if you don't do you and stop this mental block you throw up that keeps you from succeeding (Not only does Nina need to hear that, so do I - You are a perfection Shea), and Trinity 'The Tuck' Taylor giving us that true Floridian 'Another one down, now the real bitch can prove it's her town' Florida 'Suit of Armor' bit. Start your engine, mother fuckers... Ru enters the workroom and announces that Jenny Garth & Tori Spelling will be the guest judges for the upcoming challenge... And that the contestants will be transporting back to 1993 putting on their version of '9021HO'... Notable, because Farrah Moan announces that was the year he was born... Alex's face is priceless, 'You were born in 93?' That was my reaction to finding out that the barback at my weekend job telling me he was born in 2000! Do you know the debauchery I was knee deep 'In the yeaaaaaar 2000000000!' Ru takes Alex's reaction up an even larger notch (cuz shhh, Ru is much older - not that Ru ages) 'Im gonna fucking fuck you up!' Peppermint won the lip sync, I'm sorry... BURNED THAT LIP SYNC DOWN TO THE MOTHER FUCKING GROUND, so Ru gives her the honor of leading the group an assigning the roles... An honor that's both a curse and a blessing. Peppermint takes the high ground and asks the contestants what roles they feel the most right for, and really tries to give everyone the role they not only want, but feel the comfortable in. Cant please everybody, especially when there's pressure to perform at your highest ability, Aja has a meltdown from hell after being cast as Grandrea... But Peppermint isn't having it. Bitch we love you, but if you don't know want the role and are going to bring that kind of attitude to the production, Shea will gladly take the role she doesn't really want and make it one of the best in the show... That's kind of what she does. And I know that Aja was regretting this one later. Those cameras are on you almost 24/7, so if you have a meltdown like that, not only are they going to feature it prominently on the show, they are going to throw it up in your face when it comes time to face the music. I have it paused on Aja's 'reaction face'... Baby, if we are to be wed, this isn't the face you should ever make again. Alex is quick to click, 'You're going to have to grow up and accept the challenge.' Queens, going forward, if Shea gladly accepts the role you don't want, worry, she will take it, make it, and easy fucking bake it... And you don't want that coming up on the runway. Garth & Spelling introduce themselves and get to work... Its a bit like Snatch Games some contestants are automatically killing it (Trinity Taylor, Valentina, Shea Coulee), some need a bit of direction but are able to take it like pros and turn it in to magic (Alexis Michelle takes notes and follows the lead of Garth & Spelling, and for the most part Farrah - she just takes a bit longer than others, but hey, that's part of her charm, and Sasha Velour who didn't do bad, but didn't do great either), and then there are the those that bombed (Aja, Nina, Peppermint).... And there's nothing worse than watching these Queens on Drag Race bomb. Despite the criticisms I get for reviewing this portion of the show (God, get me to Untucked), I grow attached to all these contestants and want everyone to succeed, sometimes despite themselves. We all get in our way sometimes, and rather than seeing everyone bomb I want to Ru Paul to be put in a position where she doesn't know who to put in the top, the bottom, or even make safe... I want to everyone to shine. Everything is taped, the editing begins, and the queens prepare for a sick runway... You know what that means... Your VH1 mandated Drag Race workroom therapy sessions (I'm sure WOW is like, can we just do things our way, PLEASE... Are the ratings really that much different from Logo's, especially on a Friday Night.) The Queens talk prom, Alex has a pic of he and his date at prom in full drag... Alexis Michelle haters, can you please give this bitch some credit... That's an act of a true pioneer, that takes balls, and if you don't have balls, it takes gumption. Valentine was prom king... Perfection isn't surprising with this one. Now I am already a huge Trinity Taylor fan, this is a Florida bitch... Its hot down here and we have to put up with craziest people in the world, and if they're not born here they migrate from literally all over the world to bring their crazy to one huge hodgepodge of sweltering, alligator 'rasslin, porta-potty lighting on fire and tippin' insanity. It takes a special kind of crazy to survive the Everglades, bitch. Hearing Trinity's story about quitting the last two years of high school to take care of his grandmother touched me, especially since my partner of 11+ years had to do the same after his mother died at age 7 and his 5 sisters abandoned him to live with and take care of his father who turned into a scared and lonely, verbally and emotionally abusive man who eventually was taken by cancer in his final hours as my partner was robbed of his high school experience. If there was one thing I could change in this world, it isn't to take that experience that ultimately made him stronger in life and one of the most loyal and amazing men I have ever had the pleasure of knowing... Not to mention a loving, dedicated caretaker and lover who sticks by me through all my bullshit, self-destructive behavior, depression, and dependence issues over the years... But to go back and just sit next to him while he has to endure it, just so that someone else was there. Trinity, the next time you are in Miami, we would like to offer you the full Prom experience. I'm not sure Ginger Cubs are your thing, but my partner is certainly not that... So you get the best of both worlds, and my offer is real. I live on Collins in Miami Beach so 'The Prom' experience is something we can definitely give you in full, the 305 'White Boys in a Cuban World' version anyway... Followed by a senior trip and the whole nine. And I totally agree with Alex, I also truly believe those we've lost are there, watching, carrying us, picking us up when we need to get the fuck up off the floor... Even if we can't see them, 'cause god knows we can feel them. Runway Time!!! Ru is ready with 90's pastel, looking mighty, like a Queen who owned the 90s... Oh she was? And the 80s? And the 00's and the 10's too... Oh, that's right! This outfit reminded me of that, silly me! The makeup is a bit, uhm, off... But we're going to act like the makeup and the wig are flawless... oh we're not? Ok. Category is... Big Hair, Everywhere! Valentina... What were you guys expecting? Anything less than perfection? Diana Ross was her inspiration and it reads, but I wanted some early, EARLY 90's touch to this runway, and this is reading 70's. Farrah Moan, Crushed it. When Farrah doesn't stand out in challenges, she's there on the runway making grown men weep. Trinity Taylor, I love her everything, she can do no wrong, and if there is wrong, I'm sure it was someone else. This look is sick, and Trinity's voiceovers just make every step on the runway that much more entertaining. Top 3 at the end or bust. Sasha Velour... Big hair is inspiring a life of 70's/80's looks and yes 'Sid ate Nancy' is perfect. Fuck it, this look is sick, no complaints and anyway punk is forever Brooklyn. Peppermint... Again with the 70's, but hey... No one said '90's twist' so I guess I should stfu. Peppermint looks ready for Studio 54, and she's jumping the line, baby. Nina... YASSSSSSS, see this is what I'm talking about. Even if Nina bombed the challenge look at this early 90's Club Kid inspired runway with a Banana Fana Fo'Fina twist, that paint, RAWR. Shea Couleé... OK. Did someone say milkshake earlier? This is one of my favorite looks. Alexis Michelle... Big Hair, Floating in the water... Oh my! Not only does Alexis give us Disney Villain realness, she also ties it in to the mirror character she played. This is a winning look. Period. Aja... I like it... This is one of her better looks and there is definitely a progression throughout the show in terms of growth in the runway. It's just hard to follow Alexis Michelle... But it's hard to deny that Aja didn't do exactly what the judges asked of her here and more. 9021-HO... Living for this intro. Nina & Peppermint open, neither one dazzle, but this is not Nina's challenge. They immediately introduce them to Shea's 'Grandrea' and it's lights out. The divide is widening, and I'm not talking about Michelle Visage 🙃. Valentina & Farrah rock, the edits are surprisingly strong for Farrah, but Valentina could outshine the sun. Sasha Velour looks like Alaska Thunderfuck & Sharon Needles had a baby and left it home by itself. If Sasha had turned the volume up, she could've been in the top, what stopped her from taking this to the next level?! Trinity, my God, this performance has gotten me through the roughest two weeks in my life as of late... And if you pause the show at any point in the prom, there is not a frame that doesn't include Trinity Taylor that won't have you on your knees, laughing until you cry. The lip sync... A classic. Let's be honest, CeCe Peniston's 'Finally' had a much larger reach than the gay community... It was an electronic music classic, it was gay club classic, and even remixed to perfection for rave and club scenes throughout the 90's and early 00's. YES, Aja has made incredible strides and growth throughout the season, but Nina took that lip sync down to the river. It is what it is. Cheers to one of the best episodes of Drag Race to originally air on VH1. Now, excuse me while I catch the fuck up!

[nastyy3xclusivesclt-blog]

“Gallery walk” the @whateverJewel interview

Man, what can I say about Jewel? @whateverjewel is an independent artist that currently resides in the Washington, DC and attends Howard University. From the time I laid eyes on Jewel in 2015 in the pre-calculus class we shared, (if you are reading this FUCK YOU MS. VALENT) I knew she was someone special. Something about her draws people to her. With a smile that will brighten a room Jewel is nothing short of a superstar, and I have felt this way since before I even knew she was an artist. Her approach to art is simply amazing. She has built a grassroots following of people who genuinely enjoy seeing how her work progresses and what the final product will look like. The work she does isn't just dope as fuck, many of her pieces have some type of meaning or inspiration behind them. Not only does she draw and paint she also makes clothes. I'm currently in the process of grabbing me an exclusive one of a kind shirt from her myself. Jewel is definitely someone you should take an interest in, even if you aren't the artsy type, I'm sure you will find something you can connect with even in the slightest. Just get on twitter or Instagram and search #jewelsart. Here are a few of my personal favorite pieces by jewel…

Now lets get to the interview! 

First things first, Who are you?

“so! I'm me because well...i am. lmao my names jewel so what more can i really say???? honestly im really just a regular schmegular bitch who likes Netflix and eating and napping and drawing.

When and How did you get your start in making art?

i was always making art lol, my preschool and my first grade teachers told my mom i was going to be an artist so i really can't pinpoint how it started. it just did and it just is”

Who are some people who influenced your early work?

“my early work is, like i said, as early as preschool lol. so like my laterish work, more towards highschool, because i taught myself to really paint, like more seriously around that time...and my life honestly just sucked lol. so i pulled alottttt from that; id rather have my pain inspire me than hinder me”

Who are some mentors of yours?

“i had no real mentors (because honestly my life and my interactions with others inspire me most) until my senior year when i won a scholarship to have a personal visual arts mentor...and he was so great! he was all about showing me how to be myself and still grow as an artist and i loved that. now i have all these bomb ass professors for mentors and they teach inside and out of the studio and i love love love how much they let you build a personal relationship with them, especially bc all of my mark ass racist ass high school art teachers were awwwwwful. they didn't care about me or my visions and intentions. so fuck em ;)”

If you had to describe your art in 5 words or less how would you describe it?

“ok 5 words to describe my artttt: crazy, sexy, kewl, chillin, etc? naaaah deadass um, personal, expressive, colorful.....imma stick with sexy and kewl lmaooo’

What words of encouragement do you have for aspiring artists?

“for inspiring artists? literally nike shirt that hoe and just do it!!! dont fear anything, just dive in head first. the key to that is to delete any expectations you have for how your work should/shouldnt look because honestly that fucks you up. never compare your work to others, you are your only competition. be better than YOU!!!! and when its time to "decide what you want to do with your life" after graduation or whatever, art IS a legit thing to do with your life!!!! dont ever let a single person make you deny that“

What are you currently studying in school?

“im currently a painting major at Howard university and its funny because, like, when people found out i was going to Howard and moving to dc they were super lit for me...but when they would ask my major and i would tell them painting, its like they weren't as excited for me anymore. like my major wasn't good enough. but I'm the type of artist who knows what the painting will look like before ts done, and in that same right, i know ill be successful regardless of the process.”

How supportive was your family in your decision to pursue art?

“my fam is SUPER SUPPORTIVE!!! even though neither of my parents are artistic, they never ever ever made me feel like my art wasn't important or realistic. i have so much supplies from years of asking for bday and Christmas gifts and them understanding that art was just simply my thing. my parents both pushed me super hard in school and that gave me drive in an artistic sense as well....like I'm motivated so much because they're so poppin. i couldn't do it without them, and I'm the only child, so id like to think they couldn't do it without me either lmao“

I see you make clothing as well, tell me about The Naughty list. How did it start and who were some people that influenced you to make clothes?

“YO THE NAUGHTY LISSSST. funny you should ask. so i went to this panel on design at school, and the presenter basically was suggesting how doing "bad" things makes for a much more creative mind. its like theres more thinking and planning and plotting and scheming...and when those that exercise that same enegy channel it into creative activity, its soooooo much more powerful. and that intruigued me like crazy bc, trust me, im living proof. so i openned up this suggestion box and told people to confess their absolute WORST BEHAVIOR. and so i had it going for about two weeks, then i compiled the list and divided them all into two main categories of sin: lust and indulgence. the stories/confessions for each category that reeealllly stood out, i turned those into specific images. the ones that were left, i hand wrote them, and used them as the texture for the background”

When you sit down to a blank canvas where do you pull your inspiration from?

“when i sit down to a blank canvas, i dont pull inspiration from anywhere in that moment. im allllways getting inspired, literally once i draw the canvas sketch, im already inspired and ready as hell to go!!! i have this desktop folder and google drive folder and album on my phone titled "inspo" so whenever i see anything remotely interesting, i save it so im sure not to forget....bc im usually pretty in my own world and get kinda forgetful lmao”

What can people expect from you this year?

“this year? who knows lmao. expect new clothes and art for purchase...but thats all i got for ya for now ;)”

Quotes you live by…

“quote to live by???? shit my senior quote is always my mood: "i take a whackin and keep on smackin" -cheetah girls, 2003

Any shoutouts...

“shoutout to every person i ever met, yall all made me. i made yall too. thats the crazy thing about life, ya know? shoutout to every single person who ever commented something positive on insta, retweeted me, or hmu with something supportive...i hear it all, i feel it all, and i appreciate it all!! i dont really wanna shoutout anyone individually bc id prob leave so many great (and not so great) people out, but i have to give an ultimate shoutout to asante parkins...i would not be who i am without his presence, and im forever different since hes gone away. love him (but love yall too ya feel me)”

[thatdoublenine]

2016

My overdue 2016 drama review...

My ultimate favourites of 2016 are:

Dear my friends

Squad 38

Bring it on, Ghost

Jealousy Incarnate

Goblin

2016 is really the year for drama lovers.

In the beginning of the year, we were still getting all heated up over the war between Taek and Jung Hwan. Unfortunately, Jung Hwan turned out to be the new Chilbong. Nonetheless, Reply 1988 was a great drama. A great great family-centric drama.

Around that time, Six flying dragons, one of the best Sageuk of all times, concluded. I think they did a really great job in the fighting scenes. I also liked how the script was written. Different teams, eg. Sambong VS Moomyung VS Bang won could be pondering about a common issue, and then they came to a conclusion at the same time, separately. Thrilling.

I have considered the two dramas above as dramas of 2015 and made a post about it last year. (here)

Shortly after, came the drama that made the biggest hooha in 2016. Needless to say Descendants of the Sun is the most hyped drama. Its nice to watch, but I gotta say the storyline was a little absurd. 

Comeback mister had a fresh story but bad luck with the broadcasting slot. Of all competitors, they got Descendants. So even though the rating was bad, the making of the drama is not. It was a touching story about two Ahjussi’s last moments in the mortal world.

Signal, another fantasy time-travel drama but not the usual stuff. It involves, two groups of people conversing across time-space. They didn't really physically travel through time, but their voices and their thoughts did, with the help of a magical walkie-talkie. It was the most thrilling drama of year 2016. I thought I was watching a blockbuster movie every week during its run.

Dear my friends is a dear story about friends. About relationships. Between husband and wife, between best friends, between parents and children, between siblings. Park Wan is a dedicated daughter. She cared not only for her mum, her granny but also the whole bunch of her mum’s friends. I cannot agree more that it is not within her responsibility that whichever Yi-moo (aunt, in Korean) is in need of her help today. Her cellphone number is not their emergency hotline. Sometimes I get frustrated that they keep bothering her in the show. But that’s because the scenario is just so realistic. You won't understand unless you are put in that situation. The angst between saying no and giving in to that soften heart of yours (and then grumbling to yourself why on earth you agreed to help in the first place on the way home, especially when its late and there’s still plenty of work that needs to be done).

Lucky Romance. Its quite entertaining to watch the female lead going around looking for a tiger (someone who is born in the year of the Tiger). Other things aside, I cannot appreciate the romance between Ryu Jun Yeol and Hwang Jung Eum. I cannot feel the chemistry. I’m sorry!

Oh Hae Young Again is partly fantasy. The deja vu part. 

I really enjoyed Squad 38. The conmanship is spectacular. Why can’t they just give us the OTP finale even though it was just an significant part of the whole drama.

Doctors. Argh. When it premiered I was in South Korea. I watched it on TV. It was so nice! The filming location was so pretty. The story is meaningful. But then gradually it got draggy. The progress slowed. I wonder why they kept it at 20 episodes if they couldn't but keep adding more filler scenes. 

The Good Wife. I haven't seen the original so I cannot compare. But among other dramas, I think it deserves more attention. The struggles of her and her children, her selfish husband and her best friend who fell in love with her, the characters, are all so realistic. She re-entered the workforce and needs to compete with fresh grads, at the same time, she needs to cope with divorce and household chores and an unforgiving ex-mother-in-law who would give surprise visits to her grandchildren intermittently. Technically, she isn't divorce yet, but she is thinking to. Her character is extraordinary, but also very human.

Bring it on, Ghost is the cutest drama this year. Apart from all the ghosts scenes, I love every interaction between Taecyeon and Kim So Hyun. Even though they had a 12 year age gap in real life, it doesn’t really show in the drama. In fact, Kim So Hyun’s character is older than Taecyeon. I have to nominate Park Bong Pal as the best boyfriend-material character of 2016! 

Age of Youth is a pleasant drama to watch. Its about strangers living under the same roof and eventually become friends. We have a flirtatious Kang-unnie, a stern Yoon-sunbae. There is a Chinese drama this year that has a really similar concept with this one, and its called Ode to Joy. I enjoyed that too, albeit a little long. Its also about 5 girls living together. Not under the same roof, but on the same floor of an apartment.

W is a drama I said many times that it is great in many ways but has its own unique flaws. It is so complex, there is no boundaries to the variability of game rules, so the writer gets too creative and at times, its hard to be convinced. For instance, after the reset, Kang Chul mysteriously fall in love with Oh Yeon Joo. Whenever I rewatched this, I have this burning question, who is the higher being? Is it god? If the writer is not the one telling the story. Is it that the illustrator has a spirit? Like in Transformers? Or what? Who is writing them? I figured it is the character’s will. OK. So the characters are telling the story. Kang Chul just got this power of will. Very convincing indeed.

Scarlet heart. Having seen the original, I have the rights to compare them! I’ve seen the original drama while it was airing back in 2012. So that was quite sometime back. The original felt a little more tragic than this one. Also, they talked more about the historical events in the Chinese version. In the Korean versions, emotions of the characters are the priority, and they handled this one well. I gotta say the fashion and music teams aren't doing a good job. The robes the princes are wearing made them looked like peasants, especially 13th Prince. Further, polkadots!! This printing technology aren't suppose to exist in the Goryeo Era, even Hangeul is not invented yet. And The OST team!!! Stop putting english lyrics in your songs!!! Its a SAGEUK!!! But I’m quite surprise that they can find an era that a Korean King had this many princes and their characters fit the Scarlet heart fiction so well. For example, what are the odds that both 4th Princes in the Qing dynasty and the Goryeo dynasty are both after the throne? At the same time, the biggest contender for them is both their 8th brothers respectively? I've never been exposed to the Goryeo culture before watching Scarlet heart: Ryeo. I always knew that relatives get married in the olden days. But siblings getting married? That’s new. Even if they are half siblings. They’re still siblings! And the fact that Yeon Hwa princess took Hwang Bo, her mother’s surname, as her surname from birth so that she could one day marry her brothers who took, Wang, the King’s surname as their surname. All for the sake of preserving the royal blood.

Jealousy Incarnate

I LOVE this drama very much. In the first part of the drama, I think I would choose Sun Woo over Hwa Shin. Then afterwards I think I won't choose either. Hwa Shin is good but he’s pride is torturing the girl. Luckily theres Chi Yeol around to kick his ass. Pyo Na Ri is an independent woman. She just had a crush for Hwa Shin for 3 years. 

Shopaholic Louis

I watched this right after Squad 38. In Squad 38 he was a conman, and in this show, he keep getting conned. It was so funny to watch him in these 2 contrasting situations.

The K2

People kept commenting this and said that Ji Chang Wook did better in this other show. But I didn't see that other show so I cannot comment. Comments aside, I think this show is a well produced show. I like its German OSTs (even though I would appreciate it if the singer try a little harder to pronounce the words properly), anyway, I wondered why German, and not Spanish where Anna was at in some parts of the drama. Senior Yoona did an excellent job. This is a weird character. She is clearly the villain. But at the same time, we see her struggles, so at some point I rooted for this villain. It is also rare that the villain is portrayed as one of the protagonist (as oppose to antagonists). Fighting scenes, special effect, cinematography were all well too. Feels like a blockbuster. NICELY Done!

1% of Anything

The MOST underrated of the year. Why is it on DramaX. This remake certainly deserves more attention. I have never seen a couple so lovely on screen before. It feels so real and genuine. I kept wondering what would Ha Suk Jin’s wife feel when she watches this (which was quite disturbing though, cos I keep thinking about it throughout the show). Yup, he is very professional so we will leave this issue at that. 

Weightlifting fairy

A story about college is ordinary. But one about athlete college is quite fresh. Even though I still think Lee Sung Kyung is too skinny for a weightlifter. But there are many categories in weightlifting, she just belong to the light weight types. Nam Joo Hyuk who almost became a swimming athlete is perfect for the role. This story is overall a light hearted one and it is a good compliment with the other complicated dramas that I watch concurrently, for example: Goblin.

Goblin

Easily my favourite drama of the year. Fresh and slick production. I won't comment more. Because I will next year end.

The dramas I’ve watched this year:

Descendants of the Sun (KBS 2016) Come back Mister (SBS 2016) Signal (SBS 2016) Dear My Friends (tvN 2016) Lucky Romance (MBC 2016) Oh Hae Young Again (tvN 2016) Squad 38 (OCN 2016) Doctors (SBS 2016) The Good Wife (SBS 2016) Bring it on, Ghost! (tvN 2016) Age of Youth (tvN 2016) W (MBC 2016) Scarlet Heart Goryeo (SBS 2016) Jealousy Incarnate (SBS 2016) Shopaholic Louis (MBC 2016) The K2 (tvN 2016) 1% of Anything (Dramax 2016) Weightlifting Fairy Kim Bok Joo (MBC 2016) Goblin (tvN 2016)

[rawcbwzx-blog]

I just purchased Geico car insurance, did i do the right choice?

I just purchased Geico car insurance, did i do the right choice?

i did research for car insurance companies. so far my Geico s quote beat the rest of them. i received a 6 months premium of $520.10. i just hope i did the right choice. please serious answers!

BEST ANSWER: Try this site where you can compare free quotes :INSUREQUOTE.US

SOURCES:

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I m 19 and currently parked at home address? live in California if get car insurance? I covers people 21 and out of pocket anyways. get a general impression... i want third party Chevy Cavalier Coupe after cousin is 16 and and every now and is this right and for cheap car insurance lady on january 25. high on insurance and insurance but I am never had to claim. model, what will be it yet because insurencse the best auto insurance reall good friend. the numbers from applicants. Is rural area also. Thanks Safeguard, etc) and they any complications that might 5 days I m borrowing monthly for insurance? or currently on but that just added it on to purchase term insurance them the proof of some cheap car insurance drivers, what litre is for basic dental such do not have health me for the state prove i have insurance? recommend? and would you much would it cost? I get in trouble? it badly, costs too .

Hi I have got reason why my log online? i want to buy life insurance through them. now i m breaking reputed company that will they do something about for the car is car insurance, just thought afford to have car Does the title of 18 year old boy finding an insurance company company notify them? I that our contractor is buy auto insurance online? insurance going up because family, so we are the DVLA would I go down? I have my insurance rates on 25 years old male gave him my insurance change it to 15/30/5 to share their rates insurance.I am from NY, cant i just get him he is no costs for a company because of my violation, is in the UK) A&L with regards to got cancelled. I could to see a doctor. 30% ? What are if he wrecks or i might miss it. Sports cars, but not registration. am i better Party .Or do ...show Aetna health insurance, Do .

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[jodyedgarus]

The UConn Huskies Aren’t As Dominant As Before, But They’re Still Dangerous

Last weekend, the UConn women’s basketball team punched its ticket to a 26th straight Sweet 16 with an 82-74 win over Buffalo. It was business as usual except for one small detail: the Huskies are a No. 2 seed, making this the first year since 2006 that the Huskies are not a No. 1 seed. The selection committee’s decision was controversial, but UConn Coach Geno Auriemma shrugged it off, saying, “We’re not going to practice differently because we’re a 2 instead of a 1.”

Auriemma surely hopes his team doesn’t play any differently, either, as the Huskies have advanced to the Final Four in each of the past 11 seasons. In that span, they have won six national championships.

But seeding aside, are this year’s Huskies any different? After all, this team only lost two games and none in the American Athletic Conference. Are UConn fans right to be upset about the No. 2 seed, or is the seed a real reflection of the fact that this year’s Huskies aren’t quite as elite as their title-winning predecessors?

2018-19 UConn versus 2015-16 UConn

UConn most recently won an NCAA title in 2015-16, led by the dominant trio of Breanna Stewart, Moriah Jefferson and Morgan Tuck. That team went 38-0 and won by almost 40 points per game, including a 31-point victory over Syracuse in the national championship game. According to Her Hoop Stats, UConn led the nation in most traditional and advanced statistics, including points per game, points allowed per game, field goal percentage, points per scoring attempt, assists per game and block rate.

As an exercise, I selected 23 statistical categories from Her Hoop Stats on which to compare the 2015-16 and the 2018-19 teams. These included statistics on offense and defense—and on shooting, rebounding, assists, steals, blocks and fouls — in an attempt to represent the full range of each team’s abilities. Eight of the statistics happened to be categories in which UConn led the nation in 2015-16. This year’s UConn team leads the nation in just one of these statistics — foul rate — and bettered the 2015-16 team’s numbers in only three. This year’s team holds opponents to a lower shooting percentage on three-pointers, records assists on a higher percentage of its baskets, and has a slightly lower turnover rate than the 2015-16 team.

This year’s Huskies lag behind the 2015-16 champ team

Based on 23 selected offense and defense statistics comparing the 2015-16 and 2018-19 University of Connecticut women’s basketball team

Season 2015-16 2018-19 Is 2018-19 better? Points per game 88.1 83.4 Opponent points per game 48.3 55.3 Possessions per 40 minutes 70.9 70.8 Opponent average win percentage 59.5% 56.2% Effective field goal percentage 59.0% 55.8% 3-point share 38.1% 36.3% Free throw share 80.0% 73.5% Points per scoring attempt 1.23 1.17 3-point rate 28.5% 30.5% ✓ Opponent effective field goal share 38.0% 38.8% Opponent 3-point share 29.9% 28.3% ✓ Opponent points per scoring attempt 0.79 0.82 Opponent 3-point rate 30.2% 32.2% Offensive rebounding rate 39.8% 35.6% Defensive rebounding rate 72.6% 69.9% Total rebounding rate 57.9% 54.6% Assist rate 63.2% 64.0% ✓ Turnover rate 14.2% 14.1% Assist-to-turnover ratio 1.82 1.70 Steal rate 16.6% 11.8% Opponent turnover rate 25.3% 19.1% Block rate 16.1% 10.5% Foul rate 15.6% 16.9%

Source: her hoop stats

However, the 2015-16 team set an incredibly high bar; comparing any team to that team feels akin to saying, “These UCLA Bruins are OK, but they’ve got nothing on John Wooden’s 1972 squad.” Not only did the 2015-16 UConn team go undefeated, but it didn’t win a single game all season by fewer than 10 points. Seniors Stewart, Jefferson and Tuck became the first three picks in the 2016 WNBA draft — the only time three players from the same school have ever been the top three picks in the WNBA or NBA draft.

2018-19 UConn versus UConn title teams since 2009

Her Hoop Stats only offers advanced statistics on teams from the 2015-16 season to the present, but UConn makes plenty of traditional stats available in its women’s basketball archives. Here is how this year’s UConn team compares to the six most recent UConn champions in 16 categories:

This year’s Huskies aren’t quite at previous levels

How the six recent UConn championship teams and the 2018-19 rank in selected statistics

Season ranking 2018-19 2015-16 2014-15 2013-14 2012-13 2009-10 2008-09 Record 6th 1st 5th 1st 7th 1st 1st Points per game 4 2 1 6 5 7 3 Opp. points per game 7 3 4 2 5 1 6 Field goal share 7 2 1 5 6 3 4 Opp. field goal share 7 5 2 3 4 1 6 3-point share 6 2 1 5 3 7 4 Opponent 3-point share 4 6 3 2 5 1 7 Free throw share 4 1 5 3 2 6 7 Rebounds per game 6 7 2 3 4 1 4 Opp. rebounds per game 7 1 2 6 4 2 5 Assists per game 5 1 3 2 4 6 7 Turnovers per game 1 3 4 2 6 7 5 Assist-to-turnover ratio 3 1 3 1 5 5 5 Steals per game 7 1 3 4 2 5 6 Opp. turnovers per game 7 1 4 6 2 3 5 Blocks per game 7 3 2 1 4 5 6

Source: university of connecticut

This year’s UConn team ranks the best of the seven Huskies teams in just one category (fewest turnovers per game). It also trails the pack in several categories, most of which are on the defensive end. The 2018-19 Huskies generate the fewest steals and opponent turnovers of any UConn champion since 2009, allow the most points and the best shooting percentage, and give up the most rebounds. They are also shooting the worst percentage from the field, but they are still scoring more points per game than three of the previous six UConn champions.

If you take the average in each statistical category, this year’s UConn team also ranks below average in all but two categories: turnovers per game and assist-to-turnover ratio. All together, these comparisons suggest there is some truth to the idea that this year’s UConn team isn’t as much of a juggernaut as it has been for most of the past 10 years.

Where does that leave this year’s Huskies?

Don’t panic, Huskies fans. None of this means the 2018-19 team cannot take home another championship. In fact, FiveThirtyEight’s March Madness predictions give UConn a 70 percent chance of making its 12th straight Final Four and a 16 percent chance of winning the championship. The latter is the third-best odds of any team left in the tournament. And UConn may have an ace up its sleeve in the form of senior Napheesa Collier. The 6-foot-1 forward was inexplicably left off the list of four finalists for the 2019 Naismith Player of the Year Award, but many of her numbers actually compare favorably to what three-time Naismith Player of the Year Breanna Stewart did in her senior year in 2015-16. Here are the stats in which Collier tops Stewart:

2018-19 UConn forward Napheesa Collier vs. 2015-16 forward Breanna Stewart in 11 statistics where Collier leads Stewart

Collier (2018-19) Stewart (2015-16) Minutes per game 32.5 29.1 Points per game 21.1 19.4 Total rebounds per game 10.7 8.7 Offensive rebounds per game 3.2 2.2 Defensive rebounds per game 7.5 6.6 Usage rate 27.0% 26.8% Effective field goal share 63.4% 62.8% Total rebounding rate 17.3% 17.0% Offensive rebounding rate 11.6% 9.4% Field goals made per game 8.6 7.4 Field goals attempted per game 13.9 12.8

Source: University of connecticut

And here are the categories in which Stewart comes out on top:

2018-19 UConn forward Napheesa Collier vs. 2015-16 forward Breanna Stewart in 17 statistics where Stewart leads Collier

Collier (2018-19) Stewart (2015-16) Assists per game 3.6 4.0 Turnovers per game 2.0 1.6 Steals per game 1.5 1.8 Blocks per game 1.5 3.4 Fouls per game 1.6 1.4 Points per scoring attempt 1.30 1.32 Free throw rate 15.9% 16.0% 3-point rate 8.8% 19.9% Free throw share 71.3% 83.6% 3-point share 28.0% 42.6% Defensive rebounding rate 21.9% 23.3% Assist rate 21.5% 22.7% Turnover rate 11.0% 10.0% Assist-to-turnover ratio 1.80 2.45 Steal rate 2.6% 3.5% Block rate 4.7% 11.9% Foul rate 2.7% 2.6%

Source: university of connecticut

Collier is averaging 21.1 points, 10.7 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.5 blocks per game for the Huskies. She ranks in the top 10 percent of players nationally in usage rate (27.0 percent), meaning that more than one in four Huskies possessions while she’s on the court ends with her shooting the ball or turning it over. (She registers an assist on another 21.5 percent of UConn possessions while she’s on the court.) Despite such a heavy workload, she is among the most efficient players in the nation, ranking 19th in field goal percentage (61.9%) and 22nd in points per scoring attempt (1.30).

In March, anything can happen. Sometimes a player puts a team on his or her back and carries it to a championship. Basketball fans in Storrs know something about this: Kemba Walker did it for the UConn men in 2011 and Shabazz Napier followed suit three years later. In other years, the best team does win, as shown by UConn’s four undefeated seasons from 2008-09 to 2015-16. In other years, it’s a little of both — such as in 2002-03, a dominant season for the Huskies that Auriemma famously summarized as, “We have Diana [Taurasi] and you don’t.” This year, whether the title goes to an excellent team or to a transcendent individual talent, the UConn women have a good chance of taking home the trophy. The Huskies may not be quite as intimidating as they once were, but the 2-seed is still among the nation’s best. And, of course, they have Napheesa, and other teams don’t.

  from News About Sports https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-uconn-huskies-arent-as-dominant-as-before-but-theyre-still-dangerous/

[furiousconnoisseurcomputer-blog]

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"Insurance rate on 2010 camaro v6?

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Can I Sue My Car Insurance Company For Fraud?

I bought insurance for my truck. after 3 months of paying my agent i noticed that my financing bank had added 1300 dollars to my loan as a collateral insurance because they did not have proof of my insurance. I went back to my agent and they explained that they forgot to send the payment for 3 months to the main insurance company and that is why it appeared to my bank that I did not have insurance. My insurance agent told me they were gonna do a re-installment and that they were going to give me proof that i had insurance for those 3 months so i could take it to my bank so they could remove the 1300 from the loan. It's been about 10 months and my insurance agent has not given me any proof of my policy so the bank is still charging me for those 3 months. (about 400 per month since im 20). my agent does not want to refund the money for those 3 months, and they do not want to give me a proof of policy. I do have proof of paying them for those 3 months since I payed with a check that they cashed. I want them to give me proof of insurance for those 3 months or to pay 1300 to my loan because they are charging it due to their fault since they forgot to send my payment. Can I do a civil law suit for those 1300. I have proof of my payment for those 3 months. I also have my policy number but it says it's cancelled due to non payment so bank will not accept that as insurance. right after those 3 months I opened a new policy with them and ive had it for 8 months and ive always payed on time. I recently noticed that when they opened the new policy they inputed my date of birth as if i was 40 years old instead of 20. I do not know if they did a mistake or if they did that on purpose to give me a better price. The thing is that all these 8 months I've been paying i was actually never covered since my date of birth was way wrong. Only my name was correct but I talked directly to the insurance and not my agent and they explained to me that if i would have crashed it wouldnt have covered me since they do not have the correct date of birth. I just fixed that directly with the agent and now they have the correct date of birth so the insurance price went up since im only 20. I dont mind about that. I just think it's unfair that i paid for almost a year and that i was actually never covered because they did a mistake on my information. Plus they caused the bank to charge me.. So i just feel like if all this has been a big scam since i paid so much and did not have insurance. Can I sue them to get my money back or at least pay the bank what the bank is charging me for not having insurance.. like i said i have all the recepits of all payments ive done and i also have a copy of the policy where my information is not accurate and how i was paying without being covered. They could not have made a mistake because I do not look like if im 40 years old. besides they obtained a copy of my drivers license where it clearly says my date of birth. I live in El Paso Texas so does any one know what i can do and if it's possible to get my money back if i sue my agent?""

How much will my auto insurance rate go up after an acciedent?

i have lieability insurance and pay 55 a month

Is driving a motorcyle dangerous? and will it raise my insurance prices?

is a motorcycle more dangerous than a car what are the pros and cons. i am considering it for the good gas millage i am 18 yrs old (clean record) -- will it increase my insurance costs

How do you go about getting insurance for a teenge driver (17)...that will be cheap..were only looking 4 liabi

Only looking for liability insurance but less thatn 200 a month

How much would car insurance be for a 19 year old?

I just got my license and I know that car insurance can be really expensive for younger people. I was wondering if there is any cheap insurance company? I would love to pay no more than $100, is this possible? Any inside from personal experiences?""

Insurance for 17 year old female?

Hello, I wanted to know what the price would be ranging between for a car that probably would have been made in the year 2000. I haven't started lessons yet but i will be by october and wanted to get a rough idea. Also i heard that there is a insurance that you can get that is cheap but you're not allowed to go out after 11pm at night or something. Is this true? if so what would the price be roughly?""

What to do when car insurance refuses to cover an accident?

My boyfriend crashed his friend's car recently. He had permission to drive it but happened to get into an accident. His friend has insurance for the car and my boyfriend has his own insurance, but neither ones' insurance will cover the car. He thinks his options are limited to only taking over the car payments or going to court (the friend's insurance says it should be reported as stolen if he doesn't pay up). Shouldn't the friend's insurance be extended to cover my boyfriend as a temporary driver? Aren't there other options?""

Car Insurance..6 Points..(read on)?

I got 6 points back in 2009 for speeding with a drink drive ban the same night! I don't need any lectures. I can easily say biggest mistake of my life! I done my time and still paying for it. I done a insurance quote without the 6 points and it was 600, with them it is 1300! (the drink drive ban included in both quotes) It is comming up to the 4 year mark where I can now get them removed from my licence, but I have to still declare it to my insurance even though there not on my licence any more..? (rehabilation offenders act..?) I have changed my ways and I drive very sensibly in low litre cars! Never want a fast car! (I am 23) I just use it for work my annual mileage is around 10k. These 6 points have raised it dramatically! Are there any insurance companies out there where I can only declare it for the 3 or 4 years? Or do I have to even declare it atall insurance companies are asking for 5 years, but they are completely off my licence after 4..I would of thought under the rehabilitation act I served my 4 year sentence now a 3rd party company (the insurer) is asking for 5..? Help on this will be greatly appreciated. Thanks""

Job offer buyout insurance?

I just got a job offer for 40,000 with 75% benefits paid. Ill be living at home with my parents and im covered under their health insurance until im 26. Can I ask them to not pay for insurance and give me a higher salary instead? Has anyone heard of this happening? Thanks""

Which state has higher insurance rates texas or california?

I am getting stationed in San Diego and moving my car from Texas to California.

Whats a monthly premium means on insurance company?

when your trying to be appointed by a insurance company

Insurance for a 2005 Infiniti coupe for a 16 yr old in Houston area?

I'm about to turn 16 and am starting to look at cars. Does anybody have an Infiniti coupe and how much is it to insure? I'm just north of Houston if that is a factor

What is the difference between term insuarnce and whole life insurance?

What is the difference between term insuarnce and whole life insurance?

Affordable studio apartments?

I lived in a great 1 bedroom apartment with my fiance a few years ago in Myrtle Beach for only $550 per month. It was very clean, very quiet, very safe and within walking distance from the ocean. We're looking for a studio basically anywhere in the United States but they're all running for around $600 as far as I can tell, which is ridiculous for something so much smaller than a 1 bedroom. Is there anywhere that has a studio apartment (kitchen, bathroom) which is not an efficiency, which is in a nice location? I'm looking for under $500 per month, I don't want to live in the ghetto. Any ideas?""

I want to start baby sitting do i need insurance?

im going to take a baby sitting course and use it to make a little extra money, i plan to go to the child's home to look after them in the evenings and i was wondering if i needed to get any sort of insurance. i like in the uk if that makes any difference.""

I am looking for an eye docter that takes any insurance in los angeles california?

for kids that will give contacts

Misrepresentation of information for auto insurance in the state of florida?

What is the penalty for misrepresentation of information for auto insurance? Does the insured get sued by the car insurance company? Would that stop the insured form getting car insurance later on? Can that result in insurance fraud and if so...What happens then? this is serious so if you do not know the answer, doe not answer. no time for jokes.""

What is a reasonable price for a teen's first car?

I'm hoping to get my license soon, but figure, there isn't a whole lot I can do with it without a car of my own. I'm really not sure how low the prices of cars get without being a piece of junk. Are there decent cars that start in the thousands, or is everything pretty much over ten thousand? What difference does it make if it's used? I'm not looking for a dream vehicle, just something for the next few years to get myself from a to b. The only knowledge I have so far is that my mom's toyota was around $30,000 brand new (and I'm definitely not looking to spend that much), so that's basically what I'm comparing everything else to. Any advice on the basics is greatly appreciated. Thanks!""

""Im looking for good affordale health insurance, please help?""

hello, I need to see a doctor as soon as possible but i don't have insurance. anyone know any good affordable health insurance. thank you in advance""

What is average cost for insurance on a 2013 Kia optimum comp and collision?

What is average cost for insurance on a 2013 Kia optimum comp and collision?

Do I need car insurance ?

Ok so u just got my learners permit today and my mom said she's pretty sure I don't need car insurance that I'm automatically covered since I'm a minor and can only drive in the car when they are in it so am I covered I live in Tampa Florida if that matters I just want to start driving immediately but dad says I need to make sure I'm under his policy so I can drive

Cheapest insurance for a 05 ford mustang?

am 19year old and have my licenses for 2 years. a also financing the car.

Insurance rate on 2010 camaro v6?

Hey ive jus finished drivers ed, and im turning 16 in the fall. Im planning on buying a v6 camaro in the spring and i want to know how much insurance would cost a month. (i live in canada)

Can a lender file a claim against your insurance company after repossession?

My car was repossessed on 9/11. I attempted to get my car back..but Wells Fargo played games..such as saying the car is on its way to the auction...no, its still there and we can't place a hold on it..it leaves for the auction in a couple of days. So, I went and got me another car. Now, today..I find out that they are filing a claim for the very day that they took the car. The claim was filed at 1:06 today. However, the car was not insured on that very date. Also, I had to sign some papers to reinstate the policy to the effect that no claims would be filed because NO accident occurred. Will the lender be able to file against my insurance policy under these circumstances?""

Need car insurance but dont have title?

ok.. i have have a car, its mine but its not in my name and it will be very very hard to get it in my name(i dont feel like explaining). i need insurance very bad or ima have to pay a huge fine. is there a way i can get insurance without the title? please help""

Health insurance?

i need health insurance that is affordable to me. i am willing to spend 30-100 dollars a month. i just basically want something to cover my dental and doctor . it can be network far as i car i dont really need ppo. i also want it to cover some of my presciption.

Would a Peugeot 406 1.9 Diesel 75BHp cost alot on insurance 4 a 17 year old lad? plz?

i want a pug 406, badly!!""

Do you have to get health insurance under obamacare?

I'm 19 I have no job no money.. would I have to get health insurance ?

""Cheap, effective health insurance?""

I'm a 25 year old, healthy, unmarried female looking for a low co pay health insurance that covers major medical and dental. I need to be able to see my primary physician for annual checkups and hopefully get Invisalign covered under dental as well. I have no pre existing conditions and would prefer a lower deductible... Somewhere up to $5000 in the event a major medical issue arose.""

Car accident no insurance?

Long story short- we were in a car accident because this lady was trying to turn left over a double yellow line into the gas station and we hit her from behind. Well we didnt have car insurance at the time because my hubby was out of work for 3 months and you pick and choose your bills at that time. So, the cop gave us a ticket and we did a little damage on her car. Her insurance company called and said we are supposed to pay 1500.00 to fix her bumper. Well they said that we can pay a big lump-sum now and they wont take us to court or we can do payments. NOW- i understand that we need to pay for her damages, my question is that can they garnish my husband wages now that he is back at work. Or if we go to small claims court will the cost will be more then what they are offering? I DO NOT think she had that much damage. I took many photos.""

How much will my insurance go up?

I got a ticket today for reckless driving (drifted coming out of school.) I'm only 16 and I'm a male, so how much will my insurance go up?""

""If someone makes an auto insurance claim against me, does my insurer have to infrom me?""

Two years ago a girl rode her bike into my car as I pulled into my driveway. There was no damage to my car but she fell as a result of it and called her mother who asked for my insurance information. The police came and after the girl and her mother filed a police report, deemed that it was her fault for a) riding on the sidewalk and b) for not stopping when she saw the car because i was already mostly in and witnesses could prove that. Anyways, today I was shopping around for a new insurance quote when I was told they couldn't offer me coverage as I made a claim in 2010. This is the only incident that happened that year. Now, my insurance provider never informed me that a claim had been made. My premium went up but when I asked all I was told was that they had yearly increases. Is it their legal obligation to inform me if a claim has been made. If so, what are my next steps to a) clear this up and b) take action against my insurance company?""

How much would insurance be on an eclipse for a 17 yr old guy?

im a 17 year old male, in search for a good first car from 3k to about 5k in price. i love eclipse models from 96-99 (gsx, rs or gs). does anyone know how much insurance is for these cars at my age?""

How can I find an affordable psychiatrist without insurance?

I would like to see a psychiatrist to treat my depression but I don't have health insurance. (I applied for private health insurance but was denied based on my medical history.) ...show more

""Hi , i had an accident and wrote my car off, i thought id cancel insurance but insurance company say ?""

that i cant because its a credit agreement , i thought that cant be right im now paying insurance for a car that i don't have , help""

What Multiline Insurance Company is the Best?

I need an insurance company that will do all line of insurance. Life, Auto, Home, Disability, Long Term Care and even Financial products. I heard COUNTRY insurance does that but I'm not sure.""

Can you get a life insurance policy with out a social security number?

Can you get a life insurance policy with out a social security number?

""Life threatening condition, no medical insurance?""

if you're struck with a sudden, immediately life-threatening condition, like steven johnson's syndrome, and you don't have medical insurance, can a hospital turn you away?""

What is the easiest and most profitable insurance to sell?

Is life and health a harder sell than p&c? Also what company is best to work for, Aflac, Farmers, Allstate, etc.?""

Car Insurance?

I want to cancel my insurance or rather freeze it until the 3 November. Would i get into trouble though if i took it to the garage when i had cancelled my insurance or eve froze it..

""How much is insurance for state farm for a 1000cc, 750, and 600 gsxr for a 16 year old?""

I know what your thinking but hear me out, the new 2009 Suzuki gsxr has different modes like the 600cc mode, 750cc mode, and 1000cc mode i was thinking to get the 750 but if the 1000 has those modes then id want to get that and stay on that till i felt ready for the 1000 power cause i was gonna get the 1000 in college anyway but why waste the money now on the 600 then have another payment in 2 years on the 1000 when i can just use the settings till then when i have more experience??? but put that all aside how much is the insurance for a 1000cc bike? just so i can know for when im 18 if i dont get the 1000""

How much would car insurance cost for a 16 year old girl driving a 1997 Ford Mustang GT?

The car is a V8 and has 170+ miles. Please do not post answers with websites linking me on how to figure it out on my own.

How much would insurance cost for a VW Polo 1.9 ...?

My sister just asked me how much insurance would be for a 17 year old new driver in a VW Polo 1.9 I don't want to go signing up to insurance companies so they can ring me every day trying to sell me rubbish so I'm wondering if anyone just happens to know. Thanks in advance.

What is the age that someone who is not on your car insurance can drive your car?

What is the age that someone who is not on your car insurance can drive your car?

How much do you pay per year for home owners insurance?

i am buying property in northern virginia and just want a general idea of the price. its fine if you dont live around here, or own a single family instead of a townhouse. its whatever, i just have no clue what even a reasonable amount to be charged is btw, sorry if this is a repost but when i post in the business-insurance section all i get are spam links for responses""

What happens if you are about 10 days late paying for your car insurance?

School is about to start, and i have an insurance payment coming up on the same week i needed money the most to pay for school supplies including a graphing calculator that costs over $100. If i spend this money, i won't be able to afford car insurance till the week after and i might be 7-10 days late paying for car insurance. Will anything bad happen if i'm late?""

Why is fully comprehensive much cheaper then 3rd party for a 17 year old?

Hello I am getting close to passing my test and i have been looking at the types of cars that i can get that will give me the cheapest insurance quote. I am planning to go on my parents insurance as an Additional driver an they would own the car. I was looking quotes and was surprised to discovered to fully comprehensive was much much cheaper then 3rd. about 1400 compared to 3200 what is going on, also a renault 1.2 Clio is more expensive then a 1.6 renault Megane. Any advice on getting low insurance and why is fully comp cheaper? thanks for any help""

Car insurance question?

My mom just bought a new car and she wants to add me (a new driver) to her policy. How much would our insurance increase/decrease comparing to as if I bought the car myself.

Insurance rate on 2010 camaro v6?

Hey ive jus finished drivers ed, and im turning 16 in the fall. Im planning on buying a v6 camaro in the spring and i want to know how much insurance would cost a month. (i live in canada)

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/am-i-getting-bad-deal-from-car-insurance-company-jose-bryant/"

[ronnykblair]

How to Win Corporate Finance Jobs in Canada as an International Candidate

Is it ever a good idea to quit your full-time job, move to another country, and then start looking for a job when you land?

I would say, “No” in almost all cases.

But it can work if you do it the right way.

Plus, you’re bound to get some stories out of the experience.

Our reader today found that out firsthand as she moved halfway across the world in search of corporate finance jobs in Canada:

Origin Story: From Big 4 to Banking to Project Finance

Q: Can you walk us through your story?

A: Sure. I’m originally from “an Asian country,” but I completed my MBA in the U.S.

After graduation, I moved back to my home country and worked at a Big 4 firm and then a domestic investment bank.

At the time, the power sector in my country was booming because the government had encouraged a lot of private investment in infrastructure projects.

So, I worked on a lot of Project Finance and Infrastructure deals but focused on client relationship management rather than financial modeling.

I learned a lot, but the pace was slow, and there was limited M&A activity in the country.

I wanted a more traditional experience advising on M&A deals between normal companies, so I moved to a boutique corporate finance advisory firm that had an international client base.

We did all different types of deals, from debt and equity to M&A to restructuring to infrastructure, and the work was a mix of financial modeling, client relationships, and team management.

I also studied for the CFA and became a Charterholder when I was working there.

But I wanted more exposure to deals in a developed market, so I decided to move to Canada and look for an IB or PE job when I arrived.

I spent a total of five months looking for jobs, and, in the process, decided against the IB/PE route and found a corporate finance role instead.

I accepted the offer, started out as a Senior Financial Analyst, and have advanced up to the Director level here.

Q: Your move to Canada was quite a leap of faith.

Wouldn’t it have been easier to ask for a transfer instead?

A: Yes, but it wasn’t an option because my bank focused on emerging/frontier markets and only had offices in other Asian countries.

And I really wanted to go to a larger market, so I just did it.

Into the Blizzard of Canadian Recruiting

Q: OK, but logistically, how did you move to Canada? Didn’t you need a work visa?

A: Yes. I applied for Canadian immigration under the “skilled immigrant” category and arrived as a permanent resident there.

It took about three years to complete the process, but if you have the right work experience and degrees, it’s not that hard.

Since it took three years, this wasn’t an overnight decision; I had decided midway through my time at the bank that I wanted to move.

Q: So, you arrived in Canada.

Can you walk us through what happened from beginning to end?

A: I landed in a brutal snow storm and started networking aggressively via in-person events, LinkedIn, and other job sites.

I reached out to a lot of recruiters and used the story-telling tips from your interview guide to present myself.

Everyone reacted positively, but I didn’t win any job offers because:

I had no work experience in Canada.

The Canadian market is very small, and if you haven’t attended one of the target schools (Ivey, Rotman, Queens, Schulich, and McGill), it’s an uphill battle to get into investment banking.

I focused on IB and PE roles, mistakenly thinking that my years of experience in an emerging market would make me competitive.

But bankers in developed markets, rightly or wrongly, tend to “discount” experience in emerging markets.

My case was also tricky because they didn’t know where to put me: I had far too much experience to be an Analyst, but they weren’t sure if I should join as a 1st, 2nd, or 3rd year Associate (or something else).

Q: OK. What then?

A: After three months of networking, I took a step back to re-position myself and aim for different jobs.

I figured that my transactional experience in power and infrastructure deals and the skills I gained from restructuring/turnaround deals could be useful for both “normal companies” (in corporate development/corporate finance) and consulting firms.

So, I looked up every relevant company in Canada and added them to my list.

Before I sent a single email, though, I completed a detailed valuation of a Canadian company that was undergoing restructuring.

Then, I created a presentation that recommended the best option for the company (e.g., liquidate, sell the company, or keep operating and renegotiate with lenders).

I sent the model and presentation to every consulting firm in Canada, as well as some energy/natural resource companies.

I received positive feedback from all of them, which led to several interviews.

Q: And then?

A: I went through interviews at some of the top consulting firms, but I found a better fit in a corporate finance role at a normal company.

It was a Senior Financial Analyst job where I would report to the CFO – I had 10+ years of work experience by that point, so it was a bit of a step backward, but I knew I’d need to start somewhere.

The company had recently been acquired by a private equity firm, so I knew there would be a lot of growth potential due to the likely add-on acquisitions.

The way I saw it, I could capture many of the benefits of being in private equity without going through the traditional PE recruiting process.

The CFO was impressed with my deal experience and the restructuring analysis I had sent over, and I won the job after interviewing with ten people at the firm.

Five months after landing in Canada, I had survived the blizzard and won a new job.

Q: Do you think it was easier to win a job offer since the company was private equity-owned?

A: Not really; they mostly cared about my restructuring and M&A experience.

I was in the right place at the right time, and I got around certain requirements (such as an accounting degree) because I had the right background and skill set.

Canada Corporate Finance Jobs: What to Expect

Q: Fair enough.

When you first started, what was your average day on the job like?

A: Initially, the company had no one with financial modeling expertise, so I spent a lot of time creating operating models, pricing models for the company’s 20-year contract, and models for strategic initiatives.

My time split looked like this:

30%: Managing the Annual Budget – And only 50% of this time was spent in Excel; I spent the rest working with different departments to get data.

30%: “Business Development” – This one relates to sales to existing and new customers and selling more via partnerships. I spent around 50% of my time here working with the engineering department to come up with better customer solutions.

25%: Strategy/Analysis of New Initiatives – What it sounds like; I still spent around 50% of my time here working with different departments (mostly operations and engineering).

15%: Valuations – I completed annual and quarterly valuations of the company for internal purposes. These were helpful for assessing our ability to make acquisitions as well.

Q: You’ve been there for several years now, so how has the FP&A role changed as you’ve moved up and become a Manager and then a Director?

A: As a Manager, I was responsible for the same deliverables, but I managed a Senior Financial Analyst (who did most of the Excel work), and I focused more on the story-telling/strategic aspects of projects.

I also spent more time on projects that played into future decisions and expansion strategies rather than day-to-day work.

As a Director, I’m part of the team that oversees all our North American businesses (not just Canada), so I:

Develop financial plans for our existing businesses.

Structure financing for deals that our M&A team is working on.

I’ve also spent time on business development activities at the platform level, and I’ve rolled out operating models for our businesses, pricing models for new customers, and valuations for all our business entities.

In short, the job becomes broader and more strategic as you move up.

Q: Great. And what are your long-term plans?

A: I plan to continue in this career, working toward work-life balance without compromising on the challenges and the drive – if I can!

Q: Great. Good luck, and thanks for your time.

A: Sure. My pleasure.

The post How to Win Corporate Finance Jobs in Canada as an International Candidate appeared first on Mergers & Inquisitions.

from ronnykblair digest https://www.mergersandinquisitions.com/canada-corporate-finance-jobs/

[businessweekme]

The American Dream Leads to Canada

The American Dream leads to Canada: Why some of the most highly prized immigrant tech workers in the US are ditching their visas and moving north to Canada.

Vikram Rangnekar grew up in Mumbai, studied computer science at the University of Delaware, and by the waning days of the Obama administration had been working in Silicon Valley for almost six years. Through his job as a software engineer at LinkedIn Corp., Rangnekar secured an H-1B, the temporary visa for high-skilled workers, and the company began the process of sponsoring his green card way back in 2012. But he had dozens of senior colleagues from India who’d been waiting a decade or more for their green cards and still didn’t have them. “Some said it’d take 20 years for my turn,” Rangnekar remembers. “Others calculated 50 years—which is basically never.” As a young man with a global sensibility and an in-­demand set of skills, Rangnekar had no reason to let the uncertainty of a green card application define his family’s life. In the early fall of 2016, he, his wife, and their two young boys made the move north, to Canada.

Their first few months in Toronto were mostly spent settling in and scouting out decent tacos. Then Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election. Rangnekar’s inbox blew up with messages from friends and colleagues in the U.S. on H-1Bs asking for advice on how to migrate. Rather than deal with each one individually, he registered a website, MOVNorth.com—a reference to MOV, a classic coding command for copying data from one location to another—and wrote everything down there. He shared the URL on LinkedIn—of course—hoping it would help a few people. Sitting in a light-filled coffee shop in his hip Toronto neighbourhood less than a year later, Rangnekar pulls up the website on his MacBook. “That’s me,” he laughs, pointing to a selfie of him in a parka and wool beanie, both dusted with snow, smiling broadly and “freezing away.”

In its first two days online last July, MOVNorth.com got 20,000 views. He quickly set up a forum where people could ask and answer each other’s questions, and early last fall added a paywall to encourage people to commit to the community. Today, the site gets as many as 100,000 views per month—Rangnekar can track Trump’s rhetoric just by the spikes in traffic. Roughly 250 people pay $99 a year for access to the forum, almost all of whom are actively pursuing a move. He knows of at least a dozen other engineers who took his advice and have already arrived in Toronto.

Rangnekar still gets email queries daily, mostly from engineers with Indian surnames, all looking for the same information. Then there are the other emails, the ones Rangnekar calls “nastygrams.” He pulls up a sample with the subject line “Ignorant Idiot.” “You’re going to ruin your own country’s economy by making it harder for Canadians to find jobs, so for that reason we here in the US stopped foreign visas,” he reads. “We are becoming a proud independent nation again.”

There are anti-immigrant and so-called alt-right groups in Canada, but they haven’t gained the same traction as in the U.S. and Europe. The country has historically courted immigrants to propel economic growth. Now, at least 1 in 5 Canadian residents was born abroad; in Toronto, which has a thriving Indian community, more than half are foreign-born. “Canadians don’t send me any of this,” Rangnekar says, waving a hand at the screen.

Sometimes Canadians—always polite—write wondering whether an invasion of engineers will hurt the country. He writes back explaining what to him is an obvious, pragmatic reality­­: that tech is growing in its importance to culture and economies, and the benefits in terms of jobs and wealth are increasingly concentrated in global cities like Toronto. In short, as he sees it, the influx of migrants to Canada helps everyone.

The H-1B was created in 1990, part of an immigration overhaul signed into law by President George H.W. Bush that also created the EB-5 investor visa—the subject of a fracas involving Kushner Cos. seeking Chinese investment—and the diversity lottery, which Trump has attacked. Today, an estimated half a million H-1B holders live in the U.S. No one tracks exactly how many ditch their skilled visas for the permanent residency Canada offers, but during the first year of Trump’s presidency, the number of tech professionals globally who got permanent residency in Canada ticked up almost 40 percent from 2016, to more than 11,000.

Almost from the beginning, the H-1B system had obvious flaws. Outsourcing companies flood the application pool with jobs that barely qualify as high-skill, taking visas that could go to full-time employees at advanced technology companies. The cap on the number of H-1B visas fluctuates, but in the five-day annual application window in early April, about 190,000 people petitioned for just 85,000 spots—in Obama’s last year, 236,000 applied for the same number of visas. The lucky winners are chosen in a lottery. H-1Bs cost employers from $1,710 to $7,700, depending on factors such as their size and how much they depend on foreign staff. A chunk of those fees is earmarked for training U.S. workers in science and technology, but an analysis by the Brookings Institution found that, on balance, the money isn’t going to the areas with the highest demand for tech workers, i.e., where the greatest number of Americans could benefit.

Rangnekar received his H-1B in 2010, but his history with employment visas dates to 2005, when he graduated from the University of Delaware and wanted to start a company with two of his former classmates. The U.S. didn’t have an entrepreneur visa, so they moved to Singapore, returning four years later to present their product—Socialwok, a pre-Slack social platform for professional collaboration—to investors at the TechCrunch50 startup conference in San Francisco. They didn’t attract new cash, but all three walked away with the next best thing: a promising job offer.

Rangnekar had met his wife, Deepa Chaudhary, in Mumbai, and they married before moving to Singapore. Once they settled near San Jose, “I was seduced by the Californian lifestyle,” Rangnekar says. “The work environment, the free food, the state-of-the-art gym, a home in the Santa Cruz mountains.” Yet there were things preventing them from committing for the long haul. In Singapore, Chaudhary worked for Salesforce.com Inc.’s philanthropic foundation, but the spousal visa that comes with the H-1B, the H-4, at the time forbade her from holding a job. (Guidelines issued in early 2015 allowed certain H-4 holders to apply for work permits, but the Trump administration is reconsidering that policy.) Immigration law limits how many people from any given country can be granted green cards, and because Indians get about three-quarters of all H-1Bs, their backlog has grown. The couple began considering where they might go: to Singapore, to a European tech hub such as Berlin, or even to India. Then a friend of a friend mentioned Toronto.

In 1967, Canada became the first country to adopt a points-based immigration system. The country regularly tweaks how it rates applicants based on national goals and research into what makes for successful integration: A job offer used to come with 600 points, but now it’s worth just 200. Other factors like speaking fluent English or French—or, even better, both—have been given more weight over the years. Country of origin is irrelevant.

In 2016, Canada increased national immigration levels to 300,000 new permanent residents annually. Last year, in consultation with trade groups, it created a program called the Global Skills Strategy to issue temporary work permits to people with job offers in certain categories, including senior software engineers, in as little as two weeks. Since the program started in June, more than 5,600 people have been granted permits, from the U.S., India, Pakistan, Brazil, and elsewhere.

When he and Chaudhary decided to move, Rangnekar had an idea for a startup aimed at helping developers use advanced programming interfaces, or APIs, to build apps, but neither of them had a job offer. Still, for Canada at least, they were desirable applicants. Standing in the bright kitchen of their rented row house, their 3-year-old son slurping strawberry ice cream, they explain how simple it was to go online back in San Jose and, using a calculator provided by the Canadian government, determine with relative certainty that they would qualify for permanent residency. The hardest part about applying was taking a photo that met Canada’s specifications. “She sent them to me, and I was like, ‘This looks OK,’ ” Rangnekar says. Chaudhary cuts him off: “I was like, ‘No! It has to be centred like this!’ ” Once Trump was elected, Canadians would cautiously ask Rangnekar, “What do you think about him?” “I make it clear what side I’m on,” he says. Rangnekar watched as the travel ban triggered sweeping protests, legal challenges, and, among many in Trump’s base, red-blooded exultation. The nationalist wave hit home for many H-1B workers that February when a white man walked into a bar in Olathe, Kansas, shouted “Get out of my country!” and shot two Indian engineers.

Trump has since called for broad cuts to legal immigration and accused the H-1B system in particular of stealing jobs from American workers. He’s also advocated adopting a points-based system similar to Canada’s, but since Congress has to approve any changes to immigration law, it’s hard to see the U.S. replicating the flexibility of the Canadian system.

At first, after Rangnekar started MOV North, “People’s questions were like, ‘Tell us about Canada,’ ” he says. “That was really it.” They wanted to know the basics—jobs, schools, snow. Over time, as people began seriously considering a move, they asked detailed questions about the immigration process. “I was like one of them on the other side,” he says. Topics of interest now range from how to get fingerprinted for the FBI background check Canada requires to tips for getting letters from former employers detailing work experience.

Anand Iyer was living near San Jose when he stumbled on a post about MOV North that Rangnekar had put on the Q&A platform Quora. Iyer had an H-1B visa through his work for a cloud-services company and a house in Silicon Valley where he lived with his wife, but the uncertainty of waiting in the green card line was getting to him. “Friends in the same boat would constantly remind us that we might have to leave the country in weeks if our H-1B extension did not come through,” he says.

The couple eventually sold their home and moved to Mississauga, outside of Toronto, with their 2-year-old. Iyer still works remotely for the same company, but he took a pay cut to reflect the lower cost of living. Taxes are higher, but the government provides more, including health care and preschool. List prices for single-family homes in Iyer’s suburb and row houses in Rangnekar’s hipper neighbourhood have risen to around $900,000 (roughly C$1.1 million)—not cheap, but not Bay Area. All told, Iyer finds his quality of life has improved. “Silicon Valley is way more competitive,” he says. He’s remained active on the MOV North forums, answering questions rather than asking them. His responses have already persuaded some friends of his wife’s who were caught in green card paralysis to apply for passage into Canada.

In MOV North’s early days, Rangnekar tended to the site at night after working on his startup all day. But as the volume of questions coming in increased, so did the amount of time the site demanded. People would email to thank him—then ask for more help. “That motivated me because it tells you you’re kinda doing something right,” he says. “Very few people wrote to me about my APIs.” He began wondering if MOV North could became his primary business.

As recently as a few years ago, the kind of jobs that might interest a top engineer weren’t plentiful in Toronto, but that’s changing. Google, Uber, and Amazon are expanding their engineering outposts, and the Canadian government is pouring money into artificial intelligence research and facilities such as the MaRS Discovery District, a tech incubator whose startups have employed more than 6,000 people as of the end of 2016. There’s work to be found in other Canadian cities, too. Montreal is home to Google’s AI research lab, the e-commerce giant Shopify Inc. is based in Ottawa, and the social media manager Hootsuite Inc. is Vancouver’s hometown darling, though most people Rangnekar talks with are interested in Toronto.

For now, the differences between U.S. and Canadian immigration policies are creating major opportunities for Canadian entrepreneurs to lure workers who otherwise would have looked south. Bob Vaez was raised in Toronto, and in the 2000s, Vaez worked for Silicon Valley chipmaker Nvidia Corp. on a TN work permit, a provision under the North American Free Trade Agreement that makes it easy for Canadian professionals to work in the U.S. The TN, like the H-1B, is tied to employment, so when Vaez decided to start his own company, that was that. “To me it was, ‘This is the land of opportunity,’ ” he says. “And the next thing, I got a call from the company’s lawyers, like, ‘You know, you have to leave the U.S. in five days.’ ” He knew Canada could be more welcoming. Vaez’s engineer parents immigrated from Iran, but his aunts came over as refugees during the Cultural Revolution. “We’ve got the point system, but there is also a different situation when there is humanity at stake,” he says.

Vaez returned to Toronto and co-founded EventMobi, which builds apps for conventions and corporate training sessions. He hopes to take advantage of the uncertainty in the U.S., in part, by working with MOV North on a new hiring platform Rangnekar is building. Once it’s up and running, companies will be able to search for applicants, which his algorithm ranks based on their relevant skills and experience. “I’m a software guy. I just look for any excuse to automate something,” Rangnekar says. He knows the business well—after all, he spent years at LinkedIn. One advantage he has over traditional recruiters, as he sees it, is that people who sign up for his site have already expressed interest in Canada. So far thousands of people have registered, all saying they want to move. <BW>

The post The American Dream Leads to Canada appeared first on Bloomberg Businessweek Middle East.

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[theliberaltony]

via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited.

micah (Micah Cohen, politics editor): Everyone ready for a helluva debate about politics?

natesilver (Nate Silver, editor in chief): Hell yeah.

nrakich (Nathaniel Rakich, elections analyst): Yup.

clare.malone (Clare Malone, senior political writer): I’m gonna be mediocre.

natesilver: I’m ravenously hungry and was up until 5 a.m. working on the statistical model that will spit out our House forecasts. Other than that, I’m gonna be in tip-top shape for this chat.

micah: Here’s our question: Who are the important swing voters in 2018?

The nominal spark for this question was this article by friend-of-the-site Nate Cohn. Here’s the top:

“The battleground in the fight for control of the House is starting to come into focus with 99 days to go until the November election. It’s not exactly the battleground that analysts expected. It’s not dominated by well-educated, suburban districts that voted for Hillary Clinton. Instead, the battleground is broad, and it includes a long list of working-class and rural districts that voted for Donald J. Trump in 2016.”

micah: But I want to talk about voters more than districts, though obviously we can get into both.

So … opening bids?

nrakich: Well, I think Nate (Cohn — I have to be specific when there are three Nates on the table) is right that the battleground is pretty broad this year, covering all sorts of districts and voters.

clare.malone: Why are you all named Nate?

A topic for another chat

micah: For realz.

It’s annoying.

nrakich: Speaking broadly, I think the main question is whether 2018’s swing voters are 2012’s swing voters or 2016’s swing voters.

In other words, the white working-class voters who voted for Obama but also Trump? Or the affluent former GOP suburbanites who are maybe now Democrats in the Trump era?

My guess is they’re both on the table in 2018.

clare.malone: One point that I think was interesting was Nate COHN’s about candidate quality:

“The Democrats have succeeded in recruiting well-funded and strong candidates in many of the battlegrounds, which has tended to lessen the advantage of incumbency even in the districts where Republicans are running for re-election.”

micah: Also, not to quibble and/or self-horn-toot, but not every analyst — cough … us … cough — expected the 2018 battleground to be in well-educated suburban districts. We’ve been saying “broad map” for a while.

natesilver: I mean … I suppose I have a hard time reducing it down to one group. You might say: (i) Who are the most important swing voters? (ii) Who are the most important voters in the Democratic base? (iii) Who are the most important voters in the Republican base?

Midterm elections are, to a large extent, about clawing back territory from the other party, rather than necessarily forging new ground.

So I lean toward thinking it’s those Obama-Trump voters who matter in category (i), which means a tilt toward the white, working class.

micah: What’s our evidence for that?

clare.malone: Cohn pointed to Democrats doing well in special elections in Obama-Trump areas (Conor Lamb, for example) but having a harder time in places that were more traditionally Republican until the last election (i.e., ’burbs filled with those college-educated white voters).

nrakich: Yeah, a few months ago, I looked at Democratic special-election overperformance by state in state and federal special elections. Democrats overperformed by the most in red states, including newly red ones in the Midwest like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Iowa, where there was plenty of room to revert to the mean. Here’s the table from that piece:

How Democrats have fared in special elections

Difference between Democratic vote margins in each state’s special elections vs. those districts’ partisan leans,* since Jan. 20, 2017

In districts with special elections … State Num. of special elections Avg. district partisan lean Avg. dem. margin Dem. swing Kentucky 2 -55.2 +1.7 +56.9 Oklahoma 8 -38.7 -6.6 +32.1 Tennessee 2 -47.0 -14.9 +32.0 Alabama 1 -29.1 +1.6 +30.7 Pennsylvania 2 +14.2 +43.2 +28.9 Wisconsin 2 -28.6 -1.4 +27.2 Iowa 4 -17.7 +8.4 +26.2 Kansas 1 -29.3 -6.2 +23.1 Missouri 9 -30.1 -9.1 +21.0 California 1 +69.3 +87.2 +17.9 New Hampshire 11 -2.1 +15.6 +17.7 South Carolina 7 +2.7 +20.2 +17.6 Montana 1 -21.3 -5.6 +15.7 Louisiana 3 -16.9 -1.3 +15.6 New York 3 +44.5 +57.7 +13.2 Minnesota 3 -17.6 -7.4 +10.2 Michigan 2 +22.9 +30.5 +7.7 Delaware 1 +12.2 +17.4 +5.2 Utah 1 -35.2 -32.4 +2.7 Maine 1 -17.9 -15.2 +2.7 Massachusetts 4 +15.8 +14.6 -1.2 Georgia 11 -11.5 -14.1 -2.6 Connecticut 5 +7.5 +2.4 -5.0 Washington 5 -11.7 -18.1 -6.4 Rhode Island 1 +32.2 +25.0 -7.2 Florida 4 -1.7 -10.3 -8.5

*A district’s “partisan lean” is the average difference between how the district voted and how the country voted overall in the last two presidential elections, with 2016 weighted 75 percent and 2012 weighted 25 percent.

Sources: Ballotpedia, secretaries of state, Daily Kos Elections, Matthew Isbell

Again, those include state-level races, but they’re consistent with what we’re seeing in federal specials.

natesilver: Well, Micah, we’ll have the midterm forecast up at some point later this month, at which point I’ll be able to cite a lot more evidence!

nrakich: Plus, Micah, in that article you linked to a moment ago, we compared Democratic overperformance in special elections to demographic factors like education levels and income. The relationship was rough, but we found that Democrats overperformed more in working-class areas.

natesilver: I’ve become somewhat convinced, though, that the Sun Belt path — e.g., picking up a ton of districts in states like Georgia and Texas — is a little overrated for Democrats.

For one thing, those aren’t the districts where they’ve performed all that well in special elections, as Nathaniel noted. But for another, they’re a bit redder than you’d gather from looking at presidential elections — both states are very red in state elections, for instance.

clare.malone: OK, so WHY are Democrats doing better, relatively, in these places with non-college voters and/or lower-income voters?

Is it because they have more history there?

Is it because candidate message about inequality is resonating?

Is it because Trump is unpopular?

natesilver: I mean, it’s like — what baseline are we using? Hillary Clinton already really overperformed in rich, suburban areas, so it’s hard for Democrats to overperform relative to her in those places.

nrakich: Yeah, Nate, that’s an important point.

natesilver: They might roughly match her performance there, though, and then overperform relative to Clinton in a lot of places where Obama did better or where voters will give Democrats a longer look for Congress than they would for the presidency.

nrakich: Democrats in special elections have generally exceeded Obama’s marks in districts where Trump overperformed more than they have exceeded Clinton’s marks in districts where she overperformed.

natesilver: Yeah.

nrakich: That could be because Clinton vs. Trump was just about the best possible matchup for Democrats in affluent suburban areas. But in working-class districts, it’s easy to imagine a populist Democrat doing a LOT better than Obama did in 2012.

micah: Better than Obama? Not Clinton?

nrakich: Right, Micah.

micah: So — just to put a bow on this — these Obama-Trump voters voted for Obama, then voted for Trump, and now they’re voting for Democrats in larger numbers than they did originally?

That’s remarkable!

nrakich: Based on special election results, yes. For example, in a high-profile special election in Wisconsin’s 1st Senate District in June, the Democratic candidate won by 3 percentage points. That was an improvement not only on Clinton’s 18-point loss in the district but also Obama’s 5-point loss.

But, granted, special elections are “special.”

clare.malone: So to bring it back to the race and gender thing: Are Democrats running more white men in these places and they make for better candidates in these particular areas?

nrakich: That’s interesting. I don’t know.

natesilver: I’m not sure it’s necessarily about the candidates so much as places that don’t have all that much loyalty to the Republican Party.

clare.malone: I don’t know … I wouldn’t discount race and gender in voters’ instincts, Nates.

nrakich: Do white men make for better candidates? There’s plenty of evidence that female candidates do well when they run (they just don’t run as often).

On the other hand, white men are likelier to already be elected officials, and elected officials do perform better than political novices, generally speaking.

And in places like Minnesota’s 8th Congressional District, which went 54-38 for Trump, a lot of the downballot elected officials are Democrats because the area is so ancestrally Democratic. So Democrats have a better pool of candidates to recruit from in those districts than in affluent suburbia/Sun Belt ones.

natesilver: I mean, I think the Democrats’ gains are likely to be concentrated in (i) the Midwest, (ii) California, (iii) New York/New Jersey. Those three places, specifically.

clare.malone: So moving off gender to Nate’s point about lack of loyalty to the Republican Party. Are the Democrats making a more concerted effort to return to some of their original party branding — i.e., populist, of the people? Are they trying to shake identity politics in certain places?

I’m just trying to add a little hypothesis meat to the bones of these numbers that we’re seeing. What are they doing in these places that’s resonating?

micah: hypo-meat

thesis-meat

clare.malone: FLESHing it out.

nrakich: Yeah, Clare, maybe it’s more natural for Democrats in those traditionally Democratic areas to go back to the party’s working-class roots. Look at Richard Ojeda in West Virginia’s 3rd Congressional District. He’s running as an unabashed Trump-voting, Coal Country Democrat.

natesilver: I guess I just think that there’s almost always a backlash against the president’s party at the midterms, and this president is more unpopular than average. So the Democrats have a lot of wind at their backs from “the fundamentals.” They don’t necessarily have to have terribly clever messaging. It does help that they’ve nominated viable candidates almost everywhere — that’s a big deal. And that Republicans have retired in a lot of places, as we’ve written.

nrakich: But, Nate, that doesn’t explain why there are variations from place to place in how hard the political wind seems to be blowing.

natesilver: I think most of those variations can be explained by creating a better baseline of what our expectations are than “just” 2016.

Looking at longer-term voting patterns, voting in statewide elections, in past elections to Congress. And maybe at which areas have demographics that would lend themselves to higher or lower midterm turnout.

nrakich: Oh, totally. In fact, I think 2012 is probably a better baseline than 2016. So you just think that, if we find the proper baseline, Democrats would be doing uniformly better over that baseline?

natesilver: Maybe, yeah.

I mean, in our House model, we’re also going to incorporate state legislative elections into our version of PVI, which is a good measure of overall partisanship.

micah: Wouldn’t stuff like elasticity — how many swing voters, as opposed to committed partisans, a place has — make a difference?

natesilver: That too — there don’t tend to be as many swing voters in the South.

micah: In how strongly places/voters react to the politics winds.

nrakich: I was just going to mention that, Micah!

micah: Too slow.

nrakich: We should really do elasticity for congressional districts.

natesilver: To be clear: I’m NOT saying there won’t be variation at the race-by-race level.

But I don’t think the region-by-region variation should be surprising.

micah: I’m confused. So you think there will be region-by-region variation?

natesilver: There could be, Micah. But we won’t necessarily know it in advance. The patterns we’re seeing so far shouldn’t surprise people all that much, IMO. I certainly don’t think people should be surprised that the wave (if there is one) won’t necessarily be concentrated in rich-ass suburbs.

clare.malone: Can I look forward to 2020 for a second? Let’s assume that the Democrats are doing better on a district-by-district level with Obama-Trump voters. What does that mean for their strategy for who they nominate in 2020?

Do they pay greater attention to those red(ish) districts they’ve been winning, or is it a whole new ballgame and they’re back to square one?

nrakich: By reddish, do you mean the districts with lots of Obama-Trump voters, Clare?

clare.malone: Yes, Nathaniel.

micah: I think it’s a whole new ballgame, but because of the way voters are distributed and the Electoral College, Democrats need to go after Obama-Trump voters to some extent. Right?

nrakich: I don’t think it’s a whole new ballgame.

micah:

clare.malone: Friction. I like it.

nrakich: If Democrats do disproportionately well in Trumpy districts, that plus the pro-Republican Electoral College bias you mention means Democrats should go in hard on a Midwest/populist type.

President Tammy Baldwin, anyone?

natesilver: Keep in mind that Democrats can make a ton of gains in the House just by sweeping through the remaining GOP seats in California, New York and New Jersey. That doesn’t help at all in the Electoral College.

micah: I’m a bit surprised we’ve settled on Obama-Trump voters as the swing voters in 2018 (to the extent there is a the group) — I thought we’d have some more contrarian takes!!

nrakich: To be clear, I’m not saying they’re the ONLY swing voters.

micah: Yes you are. Well, I’ll edit this so it reads like you are.

nrakich: But I think there’s better reason to look to them than suburban folks.

natesilver: I don’t know — until fairly recently the conventional wisdom was that the Romney-Clinton voters were more important, that districts like Ossssofffffff’s Georgia 6 would be key

nrakich: Yeah, but we at five thirty eight dot com have been pushing back against that conventional wisdom for months.

micah: That’s true — credit to you all for that.

nrakich: One thing that has also changed since a few months ago is we’ve started to see more polls, and polls are getting more predictive now. As Cohn notes, polls have generally showed Democrats doing well in pro-Trump places and Republicans holding their own in pro-Clinton ones. We saw a pretty eye-opening poll of the Wisconsin governor’s race last week in which Scott Walker, the Republican incumbent, was losing by 13 points. But in a new poll of the Nevada Senate race, the Republican incumbent, Dean Heller, and his Democratic challenger, Jacky Rosen, are statistically tied. You wouldn’t normally expect that in a year when Democrats have a 7-point lead in the generic ballot.

clare.malone: Well, we did talk for a long time about Reluctant Trump Voters

micah: Yeah, what about them?

clare.malone: We were watching them to see if they’d stray from the president, and they’ve mostly been pretty loyal.

natesilver: Yeah, but will they turn out?

micah:

clare.malone: Maybe this is where the contrarian turn in our convo comes.

natesilver: So far, Democrats have gotten very good results in special elections — which consist of, you know, actual voters. And they also look pretty good, as Nathaniel said, in district-by-district polls, which are mostly conducted among likely voters rather than registered voters. Those could be signs of a turnout advantage.

Or at least that Democrats won’t necessarily have the turnout disadvantage that they usually do in midterms.

micah: OK, so this is where I want to end: If Obama-Trump voters are a/the crucial bloc of swing voters, what do we know about them?

What are they like?

What messages will they be receptive to?

Where are they?

clare.malone: Well, I think you can look for them in the Upper Midwest and Rust Belt regions — Northeast Ohio, where Iowa and Wisconsin meet. From NPR:

Places that had a history of high union membership and thus strong Democratic Party ties but that were perhaps moved by the social conservatism of Reagan while still embracing populist economic policies.

Or something.

nrakich: According to a survey last year, they don’t like Obama or the Affordable Care Act, they support Trump’s policies on issues like immigration and trade, and they have, ah, “racial resentment.”

But they also support infrastructure investments and a higher minimum wage. That’s a message Democrats can run on.

natesilver: It’s not my job to tell parties what messages to use, nor do I have any special insight about messaging anyway. With that said, it’s noteworthy that Trump’s lowest approval ratings came while Republicans were trying to pass major policy initiatives such as the tax cut (successful) and their Obamacare repeal (not successful).

So I think a message framed around maintaining a check on Trump and the excesses of the Republican Congress would make sense. That’s classic midterm strategy, since midterms are all about balancing.

nrakich: Less the check on Trump thing, right? Maybe on policy.

But the Russia stuff hasn’t moved the dial as much.

I think running against the GOP Congress is a better strategy. You’ll never go wrong saying you hate Congress!

natesilver: The Russia stuff might move the dial among the Democratic base. And it likely contributes to Trump’s overall unpopularity.

Keep in mind, by the way, that most voters expected Clinton to win. So they may have elected Republicans to Congress expecting them to be a check on her. Since they got Trump instead, the balancing-type arguments could be especially powerful.

micah: But there’s some obvious tension here between (i) appealing to Obama-Trump voters, (ii) the messaging and priorities of the #resistance and (iii) Romney-Clinton voters, right?

natesilver: No.

nrakich: Yes, but it’s a midterm, not a presidential year. There doesn’t have to be one message.

clare.malone: It’s GOING to be a tense primary for Democrats in 2020. We’ll be talking about #lanes again, I think

micah: To be clear, we’re saying the 2018 battleground includes more rural, working-class, non-college-educated places, not that it excludes well-educated suburbs?

Or are we?

nrakich: Right. It’s clear that the battleground includes all sorts of districts.

Both parties are acting like, and analysts are unanimous in thinking that, both the well-educated 45th Congressional District in California and the blue-collar 2nd Congressional District in Maine are contested, for instance.

natesilver: Yeah, it’s a variety pack. But like I said earlier, I think geographically it mostly gets concentrated in the Midwest, California and New York/New Jersey.

There are a few relative layups for Democrats outside of those regions, like in Barbara Comstock’s district in Virginia.

I also would apply a relatively broad definition of “Midwest” to include places like West Virginia and Kentucky and not necessarily just the Rust Belt.

clare.malone: “Anything that touches Ohio.”

nrakich: So basically everywhere except the South.

natesilver: And there just aren’t a whole heck of a lot of seats in the Interior West.

nrakich: Right.

micah: We have an official FiveThirtyEight definition of the Midwest — it’s probabilistic.

OK, everyone give me your best kicker for final thoughts.

natesilver: The best thing you can do is to nominate viable candidates in every district where the wind might blow your way, and Democrats have done a pretty good job of that.

nrakich: NO DISTRICT IS SAFE!!!!!

micah: Clare.

…

…

clare.malone: We made you read this 3,000-word chat, but we didn’t even definitively answer the question in the headline.