#sap ibp

[valtitude-demand-planning]

Event Modeling with Casuals

A typical intervention model using either Box-Jenkins or Holt-Winters methods can help model events as interventions.  This allows you to model even unusual events such as the 2020 Covid19 Pandemic in the United States. A simplified event modeling equation will look like -

Unusual events are also known as black swans. How do we prepare for Black Swan events?

Black Swan events are those highly unpredictable events that occur out of nowhere and cause a systemic shock to the process and the way we do things.  They may perennially alter the way we conduct our business.

[valtitude-integrated-business]

OUR CONSULTING MODEL EMPLOYS THE SIX-SIGMA METHODOLOGY OF DMAIC

Define

Measure

Analyze

Improve and Control

Because of the diverse experience of DemandPlanning.Net Consultants, we can design and deliver the process in almost half the time and resource costs required by some of the bigger consulting houses. We add value to your process design in two ways:

With our knowledge base of best practices and the benchmark industry process, we can analyze and recommend processes and benchmarks rather quickly

Our central philosophy is exception management grounded in the Six-Sigma principles. This helps design a very effective process that is time-efficient as well

A quick three week engagement to assess your organizational readiness for implementing IBP

[valtitude-modeling-sap-ibp-scm]

Modeling & Metrics in SAP IBP & SCM

SAP IBP is a powerful tool that can help you create better demand forecasts and finished goods plans, when properly implemented together with appropriate training for the planning professionals. IBP DP facilitates creating a Statistical Model using a menu of statistical algorithms and automatic model selection procedures.

SAP IBP has seven different error metrics. There is a lot of confusion and which ones to use and how to use them and what they really mean. 1. How many of them are you currently using in your modeling? 2. How many of them you should really be using? 3. Which metric is the best indicator of forecast quality?

IBP DP defines the error metrics with its own unique formula that is different from conventional calculations. So it is critical for planners to know how they are being calculated and how to use them to diagnose forecast quality. We illustrate with examples the calculations of WMAPE, MASE, MAPE, RMSE and MPE and the pros and cons of using each.

[valtitude-planvida-analytics]

1. DEMAND ANALYTICS 

Under the six-sigma DMAIC approach, measurement of your current state is a key requirement for diagnostic, design and implementation of the process.  Even for on-going process stability, measurement is critical.  

The Demand Analytics module provides key insights on your planning performance and provides an insightful view of demand volatility, demand visibility and product mix analysis.  It also provides additional insights on comparisons to the budget and annual plan. 

Our Clients have reported improved Demand visibility, forecast accuracy and higher adoption of the S&OP process throughout the organization.

2. SCM ANALYTICS

With Planvida, the Supply Chain Scorecard process can be completed in minutes.  

Every month, you get all the KPIs for your S&OP in a few minutes - ready to go on Day 2 morning.  

Some clients want the SCM analytics implemented first as this gives you end-to-end insights into your entire supply chain.  Our SCM anlaytics cloud gives you key insights into your customer service, inventory metrics, production adherence to plan, lead-time compliance and several control charts for tracking supply chain functional performance to plan. 

3. PLANNING AND FORECASTING CLOUD

Our cloud-based planning and Forecasting engine is the most sophisticated among several offerings on the market.  This engine provides a probabilistic forecast using an AI-driven modeling platform.  Many organizations are suffering from the lack of good demand visibility.  Our planning engine contains a diverse set of models and machine learning algorithms and the AI picks the best model for the demand profile.

Our Demand Forecasting models can run causal models, transfer functions, event-response models and a variety of other models for seasonal variations and complex higher order demand variability.  The probabilistic forecast will help you with predictive planning so you can set accurate inventory targets.  

Pricing starts at $1,795 month and up to five users can access the system.  It can be seamlessly integrated with your ERP or BI system.  

4.  ON-GOING SUPPORT

Our support team is here to ensure things run smoothly for your organization. 

Our Data Science team will review the models and the results of the AI engine so the ML algorithms will work on steroids combined with this intelligent human input.  

[valtitude-solutions-tuning]

After the reenginnering project, we continue to support our clients who have a thriving SAP landscape. We provide:

Complete Implementation and Re-implementation services

Model Tuning and Algorithm Optimization for Demand, Inventory and Supply in SAP IBP

Support to maintain your SCM planning Views, Macros, Alerts and Process Chain Cycles

Continuous support for IBP Implementations

If you are an SAP IBP client with significant challenges with your implementation and finding it hard to use the system, please contact us today to see how we can help you. Our initial consultation and scoping exercise is complementary.

[valtitude-product-portfolio]

We improve the usability and adoption of all major planning systems. On completion of a usability project, you can expect to have much better demand forecasts and finished goods plans.

We have repaired and re-engineered complex and unusable implementations. Such re-implementations may range from minor system tweaks to system enhancements with model tuning to major re-implementations.

After the reenginnering project, we continue to support our clients who have a thriving SAP landscape. We provide:

Complete Implementation and Re-implementation services

Model Tuning and Algorithm Optimization for Demand, Inventory and Supply in SAP IBP

Support to maintain your SCM planning Views, Macros, Alerts and Process Chain Cycles

Continuous support for IBP Implementations

[scplanconsulting]

How does  SAP S/4 Consultant in Germany help businesses?

SAP S/4 Consultant works for implementation of the projects where he is responsible for the developments related to the analyzing, designing, and configuring the software and systems in agreement with the client or the employers specifications. They will ensure the system workflows are working seamlessly and are optimized well. If you are looking for support from a professional SAP S/4 Consultant in Germany then get in touch with SCPLAN Consulting today.

[valtitudetechnologies]

BETTER USE OF CAUSAL MODELING :

Set alert thresholds to enable modeling by exception 

Uni-variate forecast alerts  

User defined macro alerts 

Create a more streamlined planning process and organization by asking the right questions: 

Has APO helped improve our forecast accuracy? 

Are there products and customers that are better left to APO's automated modeling strategies? 

Am I using a segmented modeling approach? 

How many customer/product segmentations are being reviewed by my demand planners each month? 

Are the statistical models tuned? How do we set the various model parameters to produce good forecasts? 

Am I using an exception-oriented process in my forecasting activity? 

How is APO helping us simplify and improve the promotional planning process? Is it integrated into the CRM system? 

Have I created the correct customer grouping for leveraging correlations across customer forecast errors? 

Has the system simplified and improved forecast reporting process? 

Are we using the system defined error metrics in APO? 

[valtitude-supply-planning]

What should be the Guiding objective of the Corporate supply chain?  

Improving forecast accuracy?

Customer in-stock levels

Minimize inventory

Lowest cost production and distribution?

The essence of Supply Chain Planning is the Order to Cash process or the continuum of Plan - Source - Make - Deliver.

Popularly nicknamed as SCM Transformation Consulting refers to helping organizations transform their Supply Chain Management Process.  We design and implement the S&OP process and help our clients roll-out the optimal technology.  

[valtitude-demand-planning]

Modeling for promotions and unusual events in business

Event Modeling for Demand Planning

Traditionally planners have asked how to differentiate between baseline forecasts and incremental deltas.  How do you differentiate a baseline forecast from an event-driven spike or drop in demand?  

Baseline is business as usual.  This is normal demand that occurs when there are no unusual events or promotional incentives offered to customers.  Ironically, everyday may be a promotion day in the world of Consumer goods companies.  So care should be taken to modeling for events.  

Good demand planning software applications provide features to plan for events:

1.  Some offer statistical models that can help precisely model the impact of events.  

2. Many others offer features to plan and differentiate promotional plans manually through planner intervention but perhaps not advanced models that can forecast lift.  

See the chart above that illustrates baseline and event spikes. 

[valtitude-integrated-business]

STUDY AND ANALYZE YOUR PLANNING PROCESS IN THE CONTEXT OF YOUR BUSINESS MODEL AND BEST-IN-CLASS PRACTICES TO DEVELOP RECOMMENDATIONS AND IMPLEMENTATION STEPS:

Measure – Assess the process

Map – Identify process pain points with stakeholder interviews, and data analysis

Gaps – Highlight key areas of opportunity and value enhancing process solutions

Value – Provide recommendation with a facilitated one day workshop

[valtitude-modeling-sap-ibp-scm]

Introduction to IBP and forecast profiles

Demand Planning and Forecasting

Model Settings in IBP DP

Illustration of Forecast Profiles in IBP DP

IBP DP Master Profile

Uni-variate Profile

IBP DP Terminology and Statistical Modeling

IBP DP Terminology

Data Shifts

Historical Horizon Settings

Forecast Horizon Settings

Ex-post Forecasting in IBP DP

IBP Modeling phases

Modeling Mechanics

Statistical Modeling continued

Holt-Winters Models

Simple Moving Average Models

Exponential Smoothing Family: Simple, Double and Triple Exponential Smoothing

Multiple Linear Regression

Croston's Model - when to use and when not to use

Forecast adjustments using IBP DP

Monitoring model performance and re-specification for improved results

Model Diagnostics

Testing and measuring forecasting models in IBP

Definition of Demand Forecast Errors

Errors Across SKU’S vs. Errors Across Time

Model Errors defined in IBP DP

Definition of WMAPE, MAD, MASE, MPE, MAPE and RMSE

Model Diagnostics through Forecast Error

[valtitude-sap-ibp]

SAP IBP offers Advanced Planning on the cloud for Demand Planning, Inventory Optimization and Supply Planning.

Valtitude/Demand Planning LLC has worked with a number of premier companies to implement SAP IBP. Besides implementation, we have repaired implmentations that were not effective or productive and has caused a lot of pain for the planners.

We offers expert consulting for SAP IBP in four areas -

IBP Assessment for organizational readiness 

Implementation of the IBP Suite 

Re-implementation and Solutions Tuning to get the most mileage out of your implementation 

On-site Customized Training on IBP 

Our implementation methodology is unique as we fast-track and expedite all implementations in as few as ninety days.