#advancedplanning

[shuttech]

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[valtitude-digital-supply-chain]

Valtitude -Inventory Optimization and Management- Min Max Models

Re-order Point

Demand During Lead Time

Definition of MIN level in the Min-Max Model

Definition of MAX level in the Min-Max Models

Inventory Cycle and Cycle Time 

Cycle Stock

Time phased Order Point (TPOP)

Lifetime buys and Minimum Buys

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[demand-planning-consulting]

Demand Planning -Business Plan

The Business Plan or the annual Budget often follows the following outline:

Strategic analysis of external factors

Economic

Political

Competitive

Internal Factors

Development of a Sales and Marketing Plan

Calendar Monthly forecast

Operating Budget

Manufacturing Costs

Administrative costs

Sales and Marketing Overheads

Capacity and other bottlenecks

Organizational Consensus

Revisions to Spend and volumes

Management buy-in

Outlining Key risks and opportunities to the Annual Budget

Key process driver is forecast reconciliation and a methodology to determine and analyze exceptions. Reconciliation can often be painful. And it can be made worse by a simplistic process lacking an exceptions methodology. Identifying major variances and diagnosing the root-causes for the variance can quickly result in plan consensus.

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[valtitude-demandplanning-for-sop]

Valtitude -Advanced smoothing models

First Order Exponential Smoothing

Holt Models to accommodate the trend

Holt-Winters Model

Exponential Trend and Dampening

Interaction between components

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[valtitude-causal-modeling]

Valtitude -Determining Market Share 

Share estimates of the total market can be done as an objective or target estimates based on the promotional plans and budgets committed to achieving that share.  

The other option is to forecast consumption independently and derive the share through two different estimations, namely the market and the consumption. 

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[valtitude-forecast-pro]

Valtitude -Forecast Value Add Reporting

With Forecast Value Add reporting you can track accuracy across each step of your forecasting process.

Easily compare the statistical forecast, final forecast, and/or specific overrides to what actually happened. This at-a-glance report helps you quickly identify which steps or participants in your forecasting process are adding value and which are making your forecasts less accurate.

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[valtitude-product-portfolio-mang]

Valtitude -Creating Segmentation

Why we need to create segmentation?

This helps planners with planning priorities and brining attention of other stakeholders into consensus process.

For an advanced demand planning team, segmentation helps to define the statistical modeling strategy e.g. for high volume products we can go with a custom advanced stat model for low volume a simple exponential would be a good starting point.

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[valtitude-exception-management]

Valtitude -Supply Chain Exception Management

Supply Chain Exception Management

Design, Analysis, and Implementation of an zupply chain exception management approach have helped companies to:

Streamline the planning process.

Improve forecast accuracy significantly.

Focus on the major supply chain drivers that improve the bottom line.

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[valtitude-modeling-metrics-sap]

SAP IBP is a popular supply chain planning tool among many Fortune 1000 companies today. SAP IBP can help you create better demand forecasts and finished goods plans when properly implemented together with appropriate training for the planning professionals.

The main focus is Statistical modeling and forecasting in SAP IBP. We will cover the various modeling strategies including the automatic model selection procedures. We will spend quality time on explaining data analysis and graphical review in IBP.

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[valtitude-demand-p-forecasting]

Valtitude - Forecast Performance Metrics:

Mean Absolute Percent Error

Forecast Bias

What do we learn from forecast error?

Introduction to Exceptions Management

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[valtitude-demandplanning-over]

Valtitude - Product Portfolio Management

Impact of Data Volatility on Forecasting

Measuring Volatility

Impact of multiple Extreme Observations on Volatility

SKU Segmentation for demand modeling & inventory strategies

Modeling by exception

ABC analysis - Classification philosophy

Pareto analysis  based on dollar usage

Item criticality

Excess, obsolete and Slow-moving Alignment with the product lifecycle

Discontinuance and end of life (EOL)

Process flow for Segmenting SKUs

Example using a three-dimensional matrix; ABC / Volume / Critical / Status; the excess, obsolete impact of Segmentation on Cycle Counting and Inventory Accuracy.

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[valtitude-account-based-fore]

Valtitude -What is Account Based Forecasting

Account-Based Forecasting is :

an integrated approach

to leverage customer intelligence (both inventory and retail activity)

to model promotional activity into both Sales and shipment forecasts

to build a deployable DC level Plan.

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[demandplanning-eventmodeling]

Demand Planning software applications provide:

Good demand planning software applications provide features to plan for events:

1.  Some offer statistical models that can help precisely model the impact of events.  

2. Many others offer features to plan and differentiate promotional plans manually through planner intervention but perhaps not advanced models that can forecast lift.  

See the chart above that illustrates baseline and event spikes. 

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[demand-planning-consulting]

Demand Planning -Business Planning and Budgeting

Conducted as an annual exercise, the business plan is the volume, cost and profit plan for, typically, the upcoming year. This is also referred to as the annual budgeting process. Some companies conduct this as part of the long-range forecasting process, which cover anywhere from three to seven years.

Business planning is critical for every company, while long-term forecasting is indispensable for companies with longer product development cycles. The long-term plan provides the inputs for capacity planning and other long-term expansion initiatives.

It is common knowledge that longer-term forecasts are more erroneous than short-term forecasts. There are more dynamic variables and error processes at play in determining the conditions expected to prevail in the future. So it is also necessary to subject your forecast to a sensitivity analysis to understand the robustness of the forecast if the underlying economic and business environment changes. DemandPlanning.Net has developed a unique methodology to develop long-term forecasting and analyzing forecast sensitivity.

Often the annual Marketing Plan is the driver for the demand information in the annual budget. The Marketing Plan is developed with a volume forecast for the year along with the spending levels necessary to create and sustain the expected demand for the products. Marketing-mix modeling is a key component of developing the Marketing Plan.

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[valtitude-demandplanning-for-sop]

Valtitude - Data Integration and Cleansing

It is all about the data

The Forecast Problem and Data collection

Define True Demand

Data challenges  - Shipment Vs. Orders  - Gross Demand Vs. Net Demand

Historical shifts in demand

Data filtering

Outliers– Identification and Correction

The process to Identify Outliers

Tolerance band

Methodology for outlier correction

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[valtitude-causal-modeling]

Valtitude -Market Modeling 

Market Share Forecasting involves forecasting the total market and your own consumption, and estimating the share of the market. In the retailer to consumer model, what matters most is the shelf take-away. Marketing Strategies aim to maximize shelf consumption (and usage) and increase your own share of that consumption. 

The ease in forecasting the total market for a particular product depends on the industry. It may be as easy as obtaining it from the external sources to estimating market estimates through a series of forecasts involving syndicated data and POS data. 

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