#advancedplanning

[demand-planning-consulting]

Demand Planning -Business Plan

The Business Plan or the annual Budget often follows the following outline:

Strategic analysis of external factors

Economic

Political

Competitive

Internal Factors

Development of a Sales and Marketing Plan

Calendar Monthly forecast

Operating Budget

Manufacturing Costs

Administrative costs

Sales and Marketing Overheads

Capacity and other bottlenecks

Organizational Consensus

Revisions to Spend and volumes

Management buy-in

Outlining Key risks and opportunities to the Annual Budget

Key process driver is forecast reconciliation and a methodology to determine and analyze exceptions. Reconciliation can often be painful. And it can be made worse by a simplistic process lacking an exceptions methodology. Identifying major variances and diagnosing the root-causes for the variance can quickly result in plan consensus.

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[valtitude-demand-p-forecasting]

Valtitude - Forecast Performance Metrics:

Mean Absolute Percent Error

Forecast Bias

What do we learn from forecast error?

Introduction to Exceptions Management

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[demandplanning-eventmodeling]

Demand Planning software applications provide:

Good demand planning software applications provide features to plan for events:

1.  Some offer statistical models that can help precisely model the impact of events.  

2. Many others offer features to plan and differentiate promotional plans manually through planner intervention but perhaps not advanced models that can forecast lift.  

See the chart above that illustrates baseline and event spikes. 

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[demandplanning-business-budget]

Demand Planning — The Business Plan

The Business Plan or the annual Budget often follows the following outline:

The Business Plan or the annual Budget often follows the following outline:

Strategic analysis of external factors

Economic

Political

Competitive

Internal Factors

Development of a Sales and Marketing Plan

Calendar Monthly forecast

Operating Budget

Manufacturing Costs

Administrative costs

Sales and Marketing Overheads

Capacity and other bottlenecks

Organizational Consensus

Revisions to Spend and volumes

Management buy-in

Outlining Key risks and opportunities to the Annual Budget

Key process driver is forecast reconciliation and a methodology to determine and analyze exceptions. Reconciliation can often be painful. And it can be made worse by a simplistic process lacking an exceptions methodology. Identifying major variances and diagnosing the root-causes for the variance can quickly result in plan consensus.

To know More, Visit Us:

[valtitude-value-chain-metrics]

Valtitude –Value Chain Overview

Value Chain Overview:

Value Chain Balance - Introduction

Demand and Supply Chain

How do you align the Value Chain?

Organization Questions

Value Chain Performance:

How to Measure Value Chain Performance?

Customer Service Metrics

Cost to Serve Metrics

Asset Productivity Metrics

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[valtitude-sap-scm]

Valtitude - Better use of causal modeling 

Set alert thresholds to enable modeling by exception 

Uni-variate forecast alerts  

User defined macro alerts 

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[valtitude-consulting-services]

Valtitude —Consulting Expertise

Our consulting expertise includes Operations Forecasting & Planning, Strategic Forecasting, Financial Planning & Budgeting, production and capacity planning, and scheduling.

The typical engagement has included: 

1.       Diagnostics and Process Audit

2.       Sales and Operations Planning Process implementation

3.       Implementation of Large Footprint toolsets like SAP IBP and SCM, JDA Manugistics, Oracle Demantra, etc.

4.       Re-implementation and Algorithm Tuning

5.       Customized/On-site Training

6.       Outsourced Planning and Support

7.       Cloud-based Dashboarding and Analytics

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[hello-there]

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[demandplanning-collaborative]

Demand Planning —Probability of an accurate Collaborative Forecast

The probability of an accurate collaborative forecast depends on the accuracy of the forecast as well as proper and timely communication. Probability of Correct Collaborative Forecast = Prob (Correct Forecast) * Prob (Proper and timely communication)

Collaboration Accuracy

Perfect communication and poor Forecast ==> Collaboration accuracy= 0

Good Forecast and untimely communication ==> Collaboration accuracy= 0

In the Manufacturer to retailer model, the collaboration process is based on the assumption that the retail customer can help create a better forecast for the manufacturer. This is because the customer is close to where the retail takeaway occurs. They understand consumer buying patterns better and have a vast database of store-level demand and promotional information.

Secondly, point of sale (POS) information is easily forecastable since retail consumption is generally a smooth series. Volatility occurs only when there are unexpected economic or natural events. A case in point will be battery sales around before hurricanes.

Finally, the collaborative relationship allows you visibility into your customer’s planned programs. Key events will include promotions like features, tabs, price rollbacks as well as changes in inventory policy.

If you would like to find out more details on facilitating or developing a collaborative planning proces.

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[valtitude-outsourced-planning]

Outsourced Planning & Analytics delivered on the Cloud:

Valtitude / Demand Planning LLC offers Outsourced Planning capability for both large and small firms. This service features our qualified data scientists armed with our powerful analytics platform built on Microsoft Azure. 

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[valtitude-supplychain-workshop]

Valtitude -Collaboration Case Study addressing these questions:

Collaboration Case Study addressing these questions:

Is there value in the committed future order stream for collaborative Forecast?

How to choose among the many programs?

What do you need to re-design in your forecasting to accommodate customer information?

How do you think you can leverage the supply chain process to provide superior customer service?

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[valtitude-dp-forecasting]

Valtitude -Forecast Performance Metrics:

Mean Absolute Percent Error

Forecast Bias

What do we learn from forecast error?

Introduction to Exceptions Management

To know More, Visit Us:

[demand-planning-consulting]

Demand Planning -Business Planning and Budgeting

Conducted as an annual exercise, the business plan is the volume, cost and profit plan for, typically, the upcoming year. This is also referred to as the annual budgeting process. Some companies conduct this as part of the long-range forecasting process, which cover anywhere from three to seven years.

Business planning is critical for every company, while long-term forecasting is indispensable for companies with longer product development cycles. The long-term plan provides the inputs for capacity planning and other long-term expansion initiatives.

It is common knowledge that longer-term forecasts are more erroneous than short-term forecasts. There are more dynamic variables and error processes at play in determining the conditions expected to prevail in the future. So it is also necessary to subject your forecast to a sensitivity analysis to understand the robustness of the forecast if the underlying economic and business environment changes. DemandPlanning.Net has developed a unique methodology to develop long-term forecasting and analyzing forecast sensitivity.

Often the annual Marketing Plan is the driver for the demand information in the annual budget. The Marketing Plan is developed with a volume forecast for the year along with the spending levels necessary to create and sustain the expected demand for the products. Marketing-mix modeling is a key component of developing the Marketing Plan.

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[valtitude-demand-p-forecasting]

Valtitude - Mechanics of Forecast Modeling:

Forecast Modeling

Time Series Methodology

Baseline versus event forecasting

Unconstrained vs. Constrained Demand Plan

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[demand-planning-model]

Demand Planning - Exception Analysis

Exception Analysis

Exception analysis is a method used to identify and examine anomalies or deviations from the usual patterns in data, operations, or processes. It involves closely examining data sets to identify unusual patterns, errors, or outliers that may need special attention or action. By analyzing exceptions, businesses can gain valuable insights, detect potential issues, and make informed decisions to enhance overall efficiency and performance.

“80% of your supply chain errors derive from 20% of your products”

Design, Analysis, and implementation of an exception management approach have helped companies to

Streamline the planning process

Improve forecast accuracy significantly and

Focus on the major supply chain drivers that improve the bottom line

Exception management leverages the 80/20 rule.

We evaluate the end-to-end chain to capture valuable information clusters that drive the underlying business process.

Through our unique methodology and solution, we help clients institutionalize an exception management mentality to improve focus and create value through the planning process. Through this exception management approach, we have achieved impressive results with major corporate supply chains.

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[demandplanning-business-budget]

Demand Planning - Business Planning and Budgeting

Conducted as an annual exercise, the business plan is the volume, cost and profit plan for, typically, the upcoming year. This is also referred to as the annual budgeting process. Some companies conduct this as part of the long-range forecasting process, which cover anywhere from three to seven years.

Business planning is critical for every company, while long-term forecasting is indispensable for companies with longer product development cycles. The long-term plan provides the inputs for capacity planning and other long-term expansion initiatives.

It is common knowledge that longer-term forecasts are more erroneous than short-term forecasts. There are more dynamic variables and error processes at play in determining the conditions expected to prevail in the future. So it is also necessary to subject your forecast to a sensitivity analysis to understand the robustness of the forecast if the underlying economic and business environment changes. DemandPlanning.Net has developed a unique methodology to develop long-term forecasting and analyzing forecast sensitivity.

Often the annual Marketing Plan is the driver for the demand information in the annual budget. The Marketing Plan is developed with a volume forecast for the year along with the spending levels necessary to create and sustain the expected demand for the products. Marketing-mix modeling is a key component of developing the Marketing Plan.

To know More, Visit Us:

[valtitude-value-chain-metrics]

Valtitude –Value Chain Metrics 

The various supply chain metrics – customer service metrics, inventory metrics, and forecast accuracy. The workshop will also look at the mechanics behind the various metrics.

How designing holistic metrics will help you to align incentives and address different behavioral biases. The objective of this workshop is to review the inter-relationship between the various supply chain metrics – customer service metrics, inventory metrics, and forecast accuracy.

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