#russia's dwindling missile supply

[tomorrowusa]

Intelligence analyst and historian Mark Galeotti comments that Russia is using up its missiles faster than it can replace them. Though he did not estimate when Russia would would find itself at critically low levels.

Russia has started building knockoff models of Iran's Shahed-136 drones using underage and underpaid workers in Tatarstan. When Ukraine starts to notice these cheap knockoffs being used, that could be one indicator of Russia's supplies running low.

[mariacallous]

Doubts over sustained U.S. support for Ukraine long predated Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential election, and they have raised concerns over Kyiv’s ability to sustain its defense against Moscow’s war. These concerns have overshadowed another important dynamic in an already complicated conflict: the increasing involvement of East Asian powers in a European war. Besides the recent arrival of at least 10,000 North Korean soldiers on the Russian side, the evolving roles of China, Japan, and South Korea raise the question of whether a widening proxy war is being fought in Ukraine. By all indications, the answer is yes: The war is setting a new precedent for Indo-Pacific nations to compete for their interests on the global stage.

A proxy war is when two countries fight each other indirectly—by supporting warring participants in a third country. Classic examples from the Cold War era include the Congo crisis in the 1960s and the Angola crisis in the 1970s, when the Soviet Union and United States each backed warring factions in a civil war with money, weapons, and sometimes troops from yet other countries but never got directly involved in combat themselves.

Not all proxy wars look alike or follow the standard pattern. Sometimes, an outside power’s support for one side leads that power to intervene directly. Think of the United States’ gradual involvement in the Vietnam War or the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to prop up the embattled government there. Even as the military efforts of their proxies waned, the United States and Soviet Union maintained their participation in an attempt to prevent a victory by the other superpower’s proxy.

Russia’s war against Ukraine has all the trappings of a proxy war. The Kremlin has clearly articulated its view that Ukraine has no agency as an independent state and that the target of its invasion is the West—specifically, the United States. Members of NATO and several other Western-aligned countries, in turn, are supporting Ukraine with weapons deliveries. The West’s intention may be Ukraine’s defense, but its efforts are necessarily directed at Russia. By forcing Putin to fail in his goal of subjugating Ukraine, Western support for Ukraine undermines Russia. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin suggested as much, admitting that “we want to see Russia weakened.”

But what about East Asian states’ involvement on each side of this war? Is this a proxy war for them, too? If so, to what end?

Start with Russia’s supporters. Despite China refraining from overtly providing Russia with weapons, it has worked to ensure Moscow’s ability to continue its war. Not only has it opposed Western sanctions, but it has also used its diplomatic connections in the global south to prevent a broader condemnation of Russia. Importantly, China has stepped in to prop up the Russian economy and defense industry to ensure that Russia can withstand Western sanctions and supply its military. Russia now imports most of its battlefield goods and critical components from China; according to U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, China now supplies Russia with about 90 percent of its microelectronics imports and 70 percent of machine tool imports. According to customs data, Beijing ships more than $300 million worth of dual-use goods to Russia every month. As if to fire yet another warning in NATO’s direction, China this year participated in military exercises in Belarus, only a few miles from the Polish border.

North Korea has taken a far more direct approach. It was one of only five countries that voted against the U.N. General Assembly resolution opposing Russia’s aggression, and last week Pyongyang ratified a military alliance that pledges either country to aid the other in case of attack. North Korea has provided Russia with artillery shells and ballistic missiles to support dwindling munition stockpiles. But the most escalatory step occurred last month, when North Korea sent about 10,000 troops to Russia, some of whom are now reported to be fighting the Ukrainians in Russia’s Kursk region.

To support Ukraine, two stalwart U.S. allies have stepped in, albeit with much smaller steps: Japan and South Korea. Early on, Japan coordinated sanctions against Russia with Western partners. Tokyo also provides direct and indirect assistance to Ukraine, including nonkinetic military equipment—including vehicles, flak jackets, and reconnaissance drones—as well as some $12 billion in other aid, making Tokyo one of Kyiv’s top bilateral donors. Japan also revised its restrictions on weapons exports, enabling the transfer of Japanese-manufactured Patriot missiles to the United States, thereby helping to ensure U.S. stockpiles remain stable even as some of this equipment is sent to help Ukraine. And diplomatically, Japan has used its connections to act as a convening power to help Ukraine. During Japan’s 2023 G-7 presidency, for example, then-Prime Minister Kishida Fumio extended invitations to various countries from the global south so that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky could engage with their representatives at the group’s May summit.

While South Korea, too, has refrained from delivering weapons to Ukraine, it has provided substantial humanitarian aid and other nonlethal support, such as mine-clearing equipment, body armor, and helmets. It has also joined in economic sanctions against Moscow. And like Japan, it has replenished U.S. weapons stocks, supplying the United States with artillery shells and thereby freeing up Washington’s ability to send shells to Ukraine. Similarly, South Korea has greatly increased defense exports to Poland, part of which backfilled the latter’s deliveries to Ukraine in the early days of the war. Following the news of North Korean troops arriving in Russia, Seoul is now considering a greater level of support, floating the idea of directly supplying Kyiv with defensive and offensive weapons.

The motivations of these four East Asian actors have all the hallmarks of their being involved in a proxy war. Both Beijing and Pyongyang have an overarching strategic interest in seeing Moscow prevail. Both share Russia’s vision of a post-Western world order, in which the United States and its allies are weakened. Chinese President Xi Jinping and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un see Putin as an ally in a global struggle against the West, which makes supporting his war in Ukraine a strategic imperative.

Similar proxy war motivations hold for Tokyo and Seoul. As a status quo power, Tokyo has a strategic interest in ensuring that the existing order does not falter, including the post-World War II proscription of changing borders by force; as Kishida famously warned, “Ukraine today may be East Asia tomorrow.” Seoul—in addition to its concerns about the new military alliance between Pyongyang and Moscow—is also motivated by a need to thwart attempts to change the status quo through coercion. Echoing Kishida, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol told The Associated Press last year that “the war in Ukraine has reminded us all that a security crisis in one particular region can have a global impact.” Together, their actions to help Ukraine prevail also aim to send a message to China and North Korea that any attempt to forcibly change the status quo comes with dire consequences.

Granted, the level of support we currently see from the East Asian powers will likely be a function of how committed the United States and Russia remain in the months and years ahead. Trump’s return to the White House could result in changes on the battlefield—but not necessarily in the nature of Indo-Pacific involvement. Trump has already said he could end the war in a day but has not provided details. If he can—and both sides accept the outcome—then the proxy war ends. If he cannot and the conflict continues in some manner, so does the proxy war, but the level of commitment may change. In a situation where the United States stops supporting Ukraine but European NATO members step up, it is likely that Japan and South Korea would also continue their support; their interest in pushing back against aggressors would be unchanged. However, their support could be reduced, since some of their activities have come as a request by their U.S. ally.

It is hard to see China and North Korea reducing their involvement, given that their support could help Russia succeed and advance their strategic goal of destroying the existing order. Short of a mutually acceptable end to the war, changes in the degree of U.S. involvement under a second Trump administration will not alter the fundamental proxy war constellation: All four East Asian powers are supporting a third party to undermine their competitor’s ability to undermine their national interests.

While this indicates that the security challenges in East Asia have, in part, been exported to Europe, the more concerning element is the fact that their participation adds an element of uncertainty and potential escalation to the conflict in Ukraine. Beijing, Pyongyang, Seoul, and Tokyo are supporting their respective partners on European soil in order to wage a much broader struggle over the future of the international order. This, in turn, indicates the extent to which the war has become global—and has set a new precedent for how Asian nations compete for their interests in other parts of the world.

[darkmaga-returns]

Joe Biden has been hell-bent on churning out major policy decisions during the remainder of his tenure before US president-elect Donald Trump enters the White House.

"Lame duck" US president Joe Biden gave the nod to the Ukrainian Armed Forces to use long-range US-supplied missiles, such as ATACMS, to strike deep into Russian territory in November.

In response to to Kiev's strikes deep into Russian territory, the Russian armed forces struck the locations of Ukraine's long-range weapons systems.

⚡️Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that Russia will respond to ongoing strikes from Western long-range weapons, including the possibility of further testing of the Oreshnik missile system. He also mentioned that targets are currently being selected for strikes on… pic.twitter.com/gYxtBiwu0o— Sputnik (@SputnikInt) November 28, 2024

After providing the Kiev regime with billions of dollars’ worth of financial and military supplies following the escalation of the conflict, the outgoing Biden administration apparently intends to write off $4.65 billion of Ukraine's debt, Bloomberg reported.

The total amount of Ukraine’s state and state-guaranteed debt as of September 30 was $155.69 billion, including the $112.06 billion of external debt, according to data released by the Ukrainian Ministry of Finance.

Concerned lest the incoming Trump administration follows through on the Republican's threats to cut Ukraine aid, Biden made a secret request to Congress for $24 billion in aid to the Kiev regime, according to American media. The money would be used to bolster military support and replenish dwindling US stocks.

Furthermore, Washington has been ramping up arms deliveries to the Kiev regime, with a new aid package worth $725 million to reportedly include anti-tank weapons, land mines, drones, Stinger missiles, ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) and cluster munitions for guided multiple launch systems.

[arpov-blog-blog]

The Defense Department announced a $1 billion package for Ukraine shortly after President Biden on Wednesday signed a national security supplemental into law, aiming to deliver critical artillery rounds and air defense munitions to Kyiv as its troops struggle with dwindling resources to defend against an encroaching Russian military.

The $1 billion price tag is much higher than previous packages that have generally totaled around a few hundred million dollars, in part because Congress delayed sending more aid to Ukraine for months after the last U.S. assistance dried up at the end of 2023. That made Ukraine more desperate for aid as ammunition ran low and Russia pressed forward on the battlefield, putting Ukrainian troops on the backfoot.

A key part of the new package is 155-millimeter artillery rounds and other mortar and artillery ammunition, along with RIM-7 and AIM-9M air defense munitions. Kyiv has made both a priority, with artillery a major part of covering Ukrainian troops on the ground and air defenses crucial to defending cities.

Wednesday’s package includes Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor launchers, small arms ammunition like .50 caliber rounds and munitions for the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems.

And Ukraine will get Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles, Humvees and other logistical and tactical vehicles, along with anti-armor mines, demolition material and other spare parts and equipment.

Notably, the package does not include the long-range artillery weapon called the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), which can strike targets up to 190 miles away. The Biden administration has provided older versions of the ATACMS, but not a newer model.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said earlier this week that he called Biden and there was an agreement to provide ATACMS, but he did not provide greater details, including when they might be delivered.

After signing the $95 billion national security package into law, about $61 billion of which will go to supporting Ukraine, Biden said it was a “good day for world peace.”

“Americans are going to send Ukraine the supplies they need to keep them in the fight,” he said, promising to start sending equipment within hours. “This package is literally an investment in not only Ukraine’s security but in Europe’s security, in our own security.”

Zelensky expressed his thanks after the Senate cleared the package on Tuesday night, just days after the House. On Wednesday, Zelensky said the “key now is speed.”

[certainrebelarbiter]

The global shoulder fixed weapons market size is expected to reach USD 7,836.8 million by 2027

The global shoulder fixed weapons market size is expected to reach USD 7,836.8 million by 2027, exhibiting a CAGR of 5.74% during the forecast period. The growing enhancements in defense systems coupled with robust border security will have an excellent impact on the global market, states Fortune Business Insights, in a report, titled “Shoulder Fixed Weapons Market Size, Share & Industry Analysis, By Component (Launcher [Missile/Rocket Launcher, Rocket Propelled Grenade Launcher and Tripod] and Ammunition [Anti-tank Missile, Anti-aircraft Missile, Rocket Propelled Grenade]), By Technology (Guided [Infrared Homing, Laser Guided, and Semi-automatic Command line-of-sight] and Unguided), By Range (Short, Medium and Long), and Regional Forecast, 2023-2027.” The market size stood at USD 6,224.6 million in 2023.

The coronavirus incident has caused colossal loss to several industries across the globe. The governments of several countries have instigated lockdown to thwart the spread of this deadly virus. Such plans have caused disturbances in the production and supply chain. But, with time and resolution, we will be able to combat this stern time and get back to normality. Our well-revised reports will help companies receive in-depth information about every market's present scenario so that you can adopt the necessary strategies accordingly.

The Report Lists the Key Players in the Shoulder Fixed Weapons Market:

Northrop Grumman Corporation (US)

Konstruktorskoye byuro mashynostroyeniya (Russia)

Lockheed Martin Corporation (US)

Thales Group (France)

Saab AB (Sweden)

KBP Instrument Design Bureau (Russia)

Raytheon Company (US)

Rafael Advanced Defense System (Israel)

MBDA

BAE Systems (UK)

JSC SPA Bazalt (Russia)

Other Players

Browse In-depth Summary of This Research Insight:

Market Driver:

Rising Per Capita Spending on Military Operations to Augment Growth

The increasing terrorist activities have led to the heavy demand for shoulder fixed weapons, thus boosting the market. As per the SIPRI Fact Sheet 2020, the global military spending per capita increased from USD 243 in 2018 to USD 249 in 2019. The increasing utilization of lightweight, easily portable, and extended range of weapons by military forces will spur opportunities for the market. For instance, military and paramilitary forces use lightweight guided weapons for combat operations due to their agility and other advantages. Furthermore, increasing military expenditure in developing nations can have a remarkable effect on the global market. According to, International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), major countries such as the U.S., China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and India are top five in military budget spending in 2020.

COVID-19 to Harshly Affect the Global Market

Suspended defense-related contracts have resulted in delayed business for fixed weapons during coronavirus. The economic downfall in various countries has further hindered the business for the ammunition industry. Moreover, reduced investments in the defense sector can dwindle the growth of the market amid coronavirus. The focus on enhanced healthcare infrastructure and hospital facilities has simultaneously reduced the spending on military operations, which, in turn, will dampen the growth of the market.

Regional Analysis:

Existing Prominent Companies to Propel Growth in Europe

The market in Europe is expected to expand exponentially due to the robust military, navy, air force, and other armed forces. The presence of key players, such as Saab AB, Thales, and MBDA Holding SAS, will foster the growth of the market in Europe. European countries, such as Germany, France, and the UK, are focused on improving military technologies. For instance, in January 2020, Germany Federal Office Bundeswehr Equipment, Information Technology and In-Service Support (BAAINBw) awarded a contract to MBDA for Enforcer missile systems. It is a precision-guided shoulder-launched weapon system with a range of 1800m capable of day/night deployment.

Key Development:

November 2020: The U.S. Army announced the replacement of its man-portable air-defense system (MANPADS) and shoulder-launched Raytheon Stringer missile system. The U.S.army requests the search for new and fresh systems that must be ideal & capable of defeating ground attacks on fixed-wing aircraft, rotary-wing aircraft, and unmanned aerial vehicles.

[snovyda]

Still processing my last night's conversation with my old university friend who had spent about three weeks in a village under russian occupation.

Her stories are just...

The way the russians routinely walked the streets in the evenings, shooting at houses and everything they could hit, so my friend and her family would just spend hours lying on the floor in the corridor with knives in their hands ("just in case some russians entered the house and we could try to take them with us"), and days unable to go outside, with no running water and dwindling food supplies.

The way, when russians were retreating, they set their slightly damaged rocket launching system on fire, and the missiles went flying everywhere in the surrounding area. Including the house my friend was in. They got incredibly lucky that it didn't explode.

And in addition, a story about two of her close friends who were driving humanitarian aid by car, and russians shot at their car FROM A TANK.

Russian army is a terrorist gang. Russia is a terrorist state. A disgrace to itself.

[argumate]

Russian forces conducted a massive missile strike attack against over 20 cities, including Kyiv, on October 10. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces launched over 84 cruise missiles and 24 drone attacks, 13 of which were carried out with Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones. Ukrainian air defense shot down 43 cruise missiles, 10 Shahed-136 drones, and 3 unspecified drones. Russian forces launched missiles from 10 strategic bombers operating in the Caspian Sea and from Nizhny Novgorod, Iskander short-range ballistic missile systems, and 6 missile carriers in the Black Sea. Russian forces launched the Shahed-136 drones from Crimea and Belarus. Ukrainian media reported that Russian missile strikes hit 70 targets, including 29 critical infrastructure facilities, 4 high-rise buildings, 35 residential buildings, and a school.

Putin emphasized that he would conduct proportional escalation in any future retaliatory actions. He stated that if Ukraine continues to carry out “terrorist attacks against [Russian] territory, then Russian responses will be harsh, and their scale will correspond to the level of the threat to the Russian Federation.” This declaration of proportionality suggests that Putin intends to continue climbing the escalation ladder rung by rung and cautiously rather than jumping to more dramatic measures such as the use of nuclear weapons. Putin may also mean to message the Russian pro-war camp that they should manage their expectations of an ongoing daily bombardment of Ukraine similar to the one conducted today. Russian milbloggers, for their part, have overwhelmingly welcomed the strikes and amplified Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev’s statement that more attacks against Ukraine will follow soon. Ukrainian and Western intelligence have previously reported that Russia has spent a significant portion of its high-precision missiles, and Putin likely knows better than Medvedev or the milbloggers that he cannot sustain attacks of this intensity for very long.

The October 10 Russian attacks wasted some of Russia’s dwindling precision weapons against civilian targets, as opposed to militarily significant targets. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces successfully completed the mission of striking Ukrainian military command centers, signal infrastructure, and energy systems in Ukraine. Social media shows that Russians instead hit a children’s playground, a park, a German consulate, and a business center among other non-military targets. Ukrainian air defenses also shot down half of the Russian drones and cruise missiles. Russian attacks on the Ukrainian energy grid will not likely break Ukraine’s will to fight, but Russia’s use of its limited supply of precision weapons in this role may deprive Putin of options to disrupt ongoing Ukrainian counter-offensives in Kherson and Luhansk Oblasts.

[loneberry]

Dark Times

Business as usual. And yet we are closer to nuclear war than any time in my lifetime, probably any time since the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962. I’ve long said that the worse Russia performs on the battlefield, the higher the chances of nuclear war. That’s turned out to be true. Putin is backed into a corner. India’s Narendra Modi and China’s Xi Jinping, the two countries that are currently keeping Russia’s economy afloat, have given Putin the cold shoulder. Nobody likes to be on the side of a loser. Additionally, China has suffered a massive reputational blow as a result of their tacit support of Russia’s war. Russia’s support is daily dwindling.

Yes, the hasty move to annex Ukrainian territory is an act of desperation born of Russia’s humiliating defeat in the Kharkiv region counteroffensive. But it’s important to note that it would lay the groundwork for Russia to use nukes. Is Putin insane and stupid enough to actually use nukes? It is with great anxiety that I say: he might be. (Though I think the most likely scenario is that Putin will *threaten* to use tactical nukes to force concessions in Kyiv.) When Russia annexes Ukrainian territory, and the Ukrainian military tries to take it back, according to Russia’s nuclear doctrine, Russia would be justified in using nukes because they would consider it an attack on Russia’s sovereign territory. Of course the justification is a sham, but nonetheless, they are creating the legal framework for such maneuvers. 

Yet the Ukrainians continue to exceed my expectations on the battlefield. Though I’m hardly a hawk, if I put on my realpolitik hat I’d say the only way to ensure their success is to continue to supply them arms. There is a great risk, though, that the supply of offensive weapons that can strike Russian territory would trigger an escalatory spiral--I have no easy answer on the question of whether countries should supply more advanced military hardware such as F-16 fighter jets, Gray Eagle drones, Patriot air defense missile batteries, longer-range missiles, and battle tanks such as the German Leopard 2 or the American M1 Abrams.

*

I once read a young Oxford philosopher who put the odds of nuclear war during our lifetime at 1 in 3. Those are not comforting odds. With the severing of lines of communication between China and the US after Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, the chance of a Cuban missile-style crisis with China has greatly increased. I do think that the better Ukraine performs on the battlefield, the lower the chances of China invading Taiwan, though I still think it’s likely that Xi Jinping will do it before the end of the 2020s. The global chaos that would ensue will be an order of magnitude greater than the current war, especially since China would likely strike US Pacific military bases in Guam and Okinawa, essentially setting the stage for WWIII and a possible nuclear confrontation. Given the trade entwinement between the US and China, and the fact that 92% of advanced semiconductor production takes place in Taiwan, there would be an immediate global great depression unlike anything we’ve seen before.

Increasingly I feel the 2020s will be the worst decade of my lifetime, but actually, given the inaction on the climate front, the declension will probably just continue.

[beardedmrbean]

KYIV — Residents of the Ukrainian capital on Monday were once again woken by air raid sirens and explosions as Russia launched a large scale assault on the city, using their new Iranian supplied “Shahid-136” suicide drones, almost exactly a week after their last attack on Kyiv. According to Mayor Vitali Klitschko, at least four people were killed.

The barrage of remote-piloted “kamikaze” aircraft began at a little after 6:40 a.m. Multiple explosions and gunfire could be heard across the city, as the drones flew slowly towards their targets. Ukrainian defenders, both law enforcement and ordinary citizens, attempted to shoot them down.

According to the Kyiv City State Administration, 28 of the drones targeted Kyiv. Ukrainians have derisively nicknamed them ��flying balalaikas” owing to their resemblance to the Russian stringed instrument, or “flying mopeds” because of the high-pitched buzzing sounds their engines make. Ukrainian forces say they shot down a majority of the drones, with local air-defense recently bolstered by Western security assistance since last week’s terror bombing, but at least five detonated around the busy Shevchenkivskyi district of Kyiv.

The Shahid-136s, supplied by Russia’s ally Iran, are cumbersome and unsophisticated, but still carry an 88-pound warhead, which can wreak immense damage. And at an estimated cost of $20,000 each, they are extremely cheap in comparison to Russia’s more high-tech but dwindling stockpile of cruise missiles. Ukrainian intelligence claims that Iran has supplied 2,400 of these drones to Russia. The Iranian government still flatly denies these claims, in spite of overwhelming evidence to the contrary.

One of the Shahids appeared to have “for Belgorod” written in Russian on its fuselage, a possible reference to recent Ukrainian attacks on Russian military targets in the Russian city, just 50 miles north of Kharkiv, that has been used as a springboard for Russia’s invasion of eastern Ukraine.

[ukrainenews]

Daily Wrap Up June 28, 2022

Under the cut: Authorities have updated the death toll for the Russian missile strike on the shopping centre in Kremenchuk: at least 20 people were killed and 59 were injured; NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said he is "confident" Finland and Sweden will be able to successfully join NATO after Turkey signed a trilateral memorandum of understanding with Sweden and Finland on Tuesday; Diageo the world's largest spirits maker, will wind down its business operations in Russia over the next six months; Kherson’s mayor, Ihor Kolykhaiev, was arrested by Russian forces on Tuesday, according to an adviser to the mayor, Galina Lyashevskaya; Boris Johnson said G7 leaders agreed to “give Ukrainians the strategic endurance they need to try and shift the dial”.

“Authorities have updated the death toll for the Russian missile strike on the shopping centre in Kremenchuk: at least 20 people were killed and 59 were injured, according to Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy.”-via The Guardian

This number will continue to change as rescue efforts go forward. “Authorities estimate that anywhere between 200 to 1,000 people were inside at the time of the strike – 21 people are still missing.”

~

“NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said he is "confident" Finland and Sweden will be able to successfully join NATO after Turkey signed a trilateral memorandum of understanding with Sweden and Finland on Tuesday.

"I'm pleased to announce that we now have an agreement that paves the way for Finland and Sweden to join NATO. Turkey, Finland and Sweden have signed a memorandum that addresses Turkey's concerns, including around arms exports, and the fight against terrorism," Stoltenberg said, speaking to journalists in Madrid following the signing of the memorandum.

On Wednesday, allied leaders will then decide whether to invite Finland and Sweden to join NATO, he said, adding after the decision, a ratification process will need to take place in all NATO capitals.

The NATO chief said following the signing of the trilateral memorandum, however, he was "confident" Sweden and Finland becoming NATO members is "something that will take place."

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson Tuesday welcomed Turkey's decision to support Finland and Sweden’s NATO membership bids, calling it "fantastic news."

"Fantastic news as we kick off the NATO Summit. Sweden and Finland's membership will make our brilliant alliance stronger and safer," Johnson wrote on Twitter.”-via CNN

~

“Diageo (DGE.L), the world's largest spirits maker, will wind down its business operations in Russia over the next six months, it said on Tuesday, becoming the latest Western brand to withdraw.

"Our focus will remain on supporting our employees in the region and providing them with enhanced redundancy terms, while ensuring we comply with local regulations," a Diageo spokesperson said in a statement.

Foreign companies seeking to exit Russia over the war in Ukraine face the prospect of a law being passed in the coming weeks to allow Moscow to seize assets and impose criminal penalties. That has encouraged some businesses to accelerate their departure.

Nike (NKE.N) and Cisco (CSCO.O) announced plans to leave last Thursday. read more

Michelin (MICP.PA) plans to hand over its Russian activities to a new entity under local management by the end of the year, it said on Tuesday, becoming the first Western tyre-maker to withdraw from business in Russia.

However, Diageo, which stopped shipping to and selling goods in Russia in March, will retain a business licence there that requires a number of employees to remain, a source said familiar with the matter said on condition of anonymity.

Once the process of winding down is complete, Diageo will have fewer than 10 employees in Russia, the source said.

Stocks of non-Russian alcohol have started to dwindle in Russia, hampered by sales suspensions by major Western firms and supply disruptions, leaving Russian consumers with less choice and higher prices.”-via Reuters

~

“Kherson’s mayor, Ihor Kolykhaiev, was arrested by Russian forces on Tuesday, according to an adviser to the mayor, Galina Lyashevskaya.

“They took Igor Kolykhaev” she wrote on Facebook on Tuesday afternoon.

In another post, she wrote Kolykhaiev visited a utility facility when leaving a car, was immediately detained by armed national guards, “most likely the FSB”.

Lyashevskaya said hard drives were seized from computers, safes were opened, and guards searched for documents. During this time, she wrote Kolykhaiev was kept in a separate office, and handcuffed in the presence of armed guards.

After the search, Lyashevskaya said the mayor was put “on the Z bus and taken away”.

Lyashevskaya wrote, “A few days ago, Kolykhaiev received a letter from the ‘newly-appointed’ mayor, where he invited him to discuss the future ‘organisation of interaction’. For refusing to meet, he threatened with arrest. Kolykhaiev did not go.W e are all in danger. Everything is under attack. I fear for the life of Igor Kolykhaiev.”-via The Guardian

~

“Boris Johnson said G7 leaders agreed to “give Ukrainians the strategic endurance they need to try and shift the dial”.

Speaking with Sky News from Germany, as the G7 summit draws to a close, the UK prime minister said this is what the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, “wants us to do”.

Earlier, the chief of general staff, Gen Sir Patrick Sanders, said Britain is facing its “1937 moment”.

When asked of Sanders’ remarks and whether Britain is preparing for war with Russia, Johnson replied: “I don’t think it will come to that.” Johnson added that leaders were “clearly” working very hard to confine the conflict.

Johnson said, “Putin and the Kremlin are going to try to widen the conflict, and say this is something between Nato and Russia. That’s not it at all. This is about an invasion of an independent, sovereign country. It’s about the west and all the friends of Ukraine giving them the support that they need to protect themselves”.”-via The Guardian

~

[mariacallous]

Public discussions following Vladimir Putin's May visit to China largely focused on exports of obscure tubers and beef cartilage to Beijing. But despite the lack of a public breakthrough in the sphere of military assistance, China remains an essential partner for the Kremlin in its war in Ukraine. Military supplies from other allied authoritarian regimes — North Korea, Iran, and Belarus — sometimes even surpass those Ukraine receives from the West. As Russia’s own reserves of armored vehicles dwindle, support from the Kremlin’s axis of authoritarian allies is only expected to grow.

Belarus: A launchpad for attacks, training of mobilized troops, tanks, and fuel

For the first six years of Russia’s war in Ukraine — i.e. 2014-2020 — Alexander Lukashenko's regime in Minsk managed to maintain a relatively independent policy. There was even limited military-technical cooperation between Belarus and Ukraine, with Belarusian petroleum products refined from Russian oil going to Ukraine for use by its armed forces at a time when they were busily fending off attacks from Russian-backed forces in the Donbas region. However, everything changed in August 2020, when a wave of popular protests swept over Belarus, exposing Lukashenko’s political vulnerability at home. Vladimir Putin responded by allocating a reserve of Russian law enforcement officers to suppress the demonstrations, thereby maintaining the regime in power in Minsk while leaving it almost wholly dependent on Moscow for survival. In February 2022, it was time for Lukashenko to repay his debts by becoming an accomplice, if not an outright ally, in the Kremlin’s full-scale assault on Kyiv.

In the early days of the invasion, forces from Russia's Eastern Military District and Airborne Troops, which had relocated to Belarus under the pretext of conducting training exercises, thus securing a foothold on the right bank of the Dnieper River, launched an offensive on the Ukrainian capital. Kyiv’s main government buildings and other “decision-making centers” are located on the right bank (the western one), an area of Ukraine that became accessible to Russian invaders largely thanks to the fact that they were able to stage their attack from Belarusian territory. Furthermore, Belarus became a reliable rear base for the Russian army, which received fuel and lubricants directly from the Mozyr refinery, had its wounded soldiers treated in Belarusian hospitals, and launched missile attacks and airstrikes from Belarusian soil and airspace.

Notably, Ukraine refrained from striking Belarusian territory, likely to avoid provoking Lukashenko into direct participation in the war. As a result, Russian troops in Belarus felt even safer than in Russia's border regions, which were subjected to Ukrainian strikes from the first days of the full-scale invasion. Without this “immunity,” the losses suffered by the Russian side during its retreat from the Kyiv region in March-April 2022 might have been even greater. Even after the Russian withdrawal, Belarusian airspace was used by Russian A-50 AWACS aircraft, Tu-22M3 strategic bombers, and Su-34 and Su-35 fighters to launch airstrikes.

The next phase of cooperation between Moscow and Minsk began at the end of 2022. The Belaruski Hayun monitoring group reported the dispatch to Russia of trains carrying dozens of tanks (1, 2), trucks, and ammunition from Belarusian warehouses. According to the group’s estimates, in October 2022 alone, 98 T-72 tanks, 60 BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicles (including 20 without turrets), and 53 Ural trucks were shipped. As of early November 2022, over 65,000 tons of ammunition had been transferred.

With the start of Russia’s mobilization in September 2022, some groups of recruits, primarily reinforcements for the 2nd Guards Motor Rifle Taman Division, received training at Belarusian ranges due to overcrowding at Russian sites. Economic aid has also played a crucial role: in recent months, imports of gasoline from Belarus have helped the Kremlin stabilize consumer prices amid drone attacks on its own refineries. Additionally, it was recently disclosed that the Belarusian military-industrial complex produces sights for Russian APCs, and also for its T-72 and T-90 tanks.

Of course, this help comes at a cost. Despite the Russian army’s acute need for military equipment, weapons deliveries to Belarus continue, albeit with significant delays. Additionally, Russian tactical nuclear weapons were recently stationed in Belarus, likely easing Lukashenko's concerns about “threats from NATO.” Furthermore, Russian police and National Guard officers remain ready to assist the Minsk regime in the event of renewed protests.

It should be noted that Belarusian capabilities to provide military aid to Russia are far from exhausted. The country produces “Kaiman“ armored vehicles, MAZ military trucks, and MZKT chassis for heavy equipment. Additionally, the Belarusian military industry complex manufactures reconnaissance drones and multiple launch rocket systems, and it also upgrades tanks. These resources could prove indispensable for the Russian army, which is experiencing a significant shortage of certain equipment (specifics of which can be found in our front-line situation review).

Iran: Drones and artillery ammunition

Russian-Iranian military-technical cooperation dates back to the late Soviet era, when Moscow sent Tehran modest arms and equipment supplies during the Iran-Iraq War (1980–1988). After the Soviet Union’s collapse, military shipments to Iran increased until they were almost completely halted between 2008-2015 due to international sanctions imposed on Iran’s nuclear program. Notable deals include the transfer in 2007 of Tor surface-to-air missile systems, one of which accidentally shot down a Ukrainian International Airlines commercial flight over Tehran in 2020. Additionally, Iran and Russia cooperated militarily in Syria to support the regime of Bashar al-Assad in the country’s civil war.

Almost from the outset of the Russia-Ukraine war, the Kremlin needed military aid. Moscow was particularly interested in Iran's advanced drone industry. Under sanctions and unable to procure full-fledged combat aircraft, the Iranian regime developed an impressive range of drones, from reconnaissance platforms to loitering munitions. While the Russian military industry excelled in reconnaissance UAVs, Russia had almost no kamikaze drones at the beginning of the full-scale war. As pre-war missile stockpiles were gradually depleted, the focus shifted to long-range drones like Shahed-131 and Shahed-136.

Because of these drones, along with cruise and ballistic missiles, it became significantly more challenging for the Ukrainian Armed Forces to fend off attacks on both civilian and military infrastructure behind the front lines. Consequently, production of Shahed drones shifted to Russia itself at sites like the Alabuga Special Economic Zone, often utilizing forced student labor. According to agreements disclosed in 2022 through leaked documents from Alabuga, Iran committed to supplying 6,000 kits for assembling Shaheds over two and a half years.

Russian-made drones underwent significant modifications: Kometa-M antennas were installed to counter electronic warfare, the warhead the aircraft carry was upgraded for greater effectiveness, the body color was changed to black to enhance nocturnal concealment, and LTE modems were integrated to track the drones’ movements. Although Mohajer-6 reconnaissance drones were also supplied in limited quantities, they did not achieve the widespread popularity of the Shahed.

In addition to drones, Iran also provides Russia with artillery ammunition. Initially, Iranian-made artillery shots surfaced in the possession of Ukrainian forces, sourced from intercepted Western shipments intended for Iran-supported armed groups in the Middle East. By summer 2023, reports emerged regarding Russian-Iranian contracts for almost $2 million worth of ammunition and barrels for both tanks and artillery guns. Subsequently, Iranian shells were integrated into service with Russian forces.

It is worth noting that the first captured samples contained Chinese shells, leading to suspicions of direct military aid from China to Russia. However, the gunpowder charges supplied with these shells were of Iranian origin, and the shell production date suggests they reached Iran during the Iran-Iraq War. Subsequently, the range of ammunition expanded to include 203 mm shells of U.S. manufacture, inherited by the Islamic Republic from the pro-Western Shah's regime and suitable for Soviet 2S7 Pion guns. Recently, supplies of 130 mm shells for the M-46 gun were also reported.

In return, Iran has reached an agreement to purchase modern Su-35 fighters and helicopters from Russia and is currently in negotiations for S-400 anti-air missile systems. This equipment will undoubtedly bolster the capabilities of the Islamic Republic amidst escalating tensions in the Middle East, but the current circumstances have also raised doubts about how much hardware Tehran will be willing to part with. More advanced drones such as jet-powered Shahed-238s could be held back (even though a similar drone was once shot down over Ukraine back in January). And although Reuters reported in February that approximately 400 Iranian-made ballistic missiles had already been delivered to Russia, they have yet to be observed on the battlefield.

North Korea: Soviet shells and “Kimskanders”

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Moscow has engaged in very limited military-technical cooperation with North Korea, partly due to the international sanctions imposed against the regime in Pyongyang. In contrast, in the 1990s South Korea received Russian tanks and infantry fighting vehicles as part of debt repayments. Nevertheless, relations between Moscow and Pyongyang have been relatively warm: North Korea was one of the few countries to recognize the 2014 annexation of Crimea and, in 2022, four more regions of Ukraine.

By 2023, Moscow found itself in need of more than just diplomatic aid. Russian production of artillery ammunition and ballistic missiles did not meet the demands of the front. Meanwhile, North Korea appeared to possess significant stocks of Soviet-caliber artillery shells, once presumed to be intended for wiping out Seoul in the event of renewed conflict on the Korean Peninsula. However, with the advancement of its nuclear program, Pyongyang had acquired more effective means of deterrence, reducing the need for artillery ammunition, if not entirely eliminating it. On the other hand, North Korea actively pursued the development of its missile program, with some ballistic missiles (known in the West as KN-23) demonstrating characteristics matching those of Russia’s Iskanders (at least on paper).

Massive ammunition supplies began following Kim Jong-un's visit to Russia in September 2023. According to OSINT investigators, munitions are transported by container ships from North Korean ports to Russia before being sent by rail to front-line areas. According to the South Korean Defense Ministry, a total of 67,000 containers of ammunition were delivered, a volume that could have contained up to 3 million 152 mm artillery shells, or as many as 500,000 122 mm artillery rockets for the Grad MLRS.

Soon, munitions with a distinctive bluish hue for artillery and MLRS started appearing in Russian frontline videos, and almost immediately, Russian pro-war bloggers began expressing their concerns about the quality and accuracy of the ammunition. Nonetheless, the shells proved sufficient for sustained artillery fire, and when combined with Russian and Iranian ammunition, they provided the Russian army with a significant artillery advantage over the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

The status of North Korean missiles presents a murkier picture. In early 2024, there were reports of several KN-23 ballistic missile strikes on Kharkiv, one of which was scrutinized by Conflict Armament Research specialists. Since then, however, reports of the utilization of such missiles, dubbed “Kimskanders” by Russian pro-war bloggers, have dwindled. The reasons for this decline remain unclear: it could be because production and delivery capacities are lacking, or perhaps flaws were revealed during use. According to the Ukrainian Prosecutor General’s Office, approximately half of the missiles veered off course and detonated in mid-air.

Nonetheless, North Korea’s potential to assist Russia remains largely untapped. Kim Jong-un’s arsenal comprises various weapon types, including MLRS equipped with 240 mm guided rockets (though reliable reports of their potential supply have yet to materialize). Furthermore, North Korea possesses a substantial number of tanks, notably T-54/55 and T-62M models, which Russia employs on the front lines. With forecasts indicating the depletion of Soviet-era armored vehicle stocks in Russian warehouses by 2026, the provision of North Korean tanks and other armored vehicles could help sustain Russia’s capacity for offensive operations in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, the extent of what the Kremlin can offer in return remains uncertain, especially considering that nearly all modern weapons produced by the Russian military-industrial complex are allocated to the Ukrainian front. Potential offerings could involve technology transfers and the establishment of licensed production facilities in North Korea, although such endeavors risk provoking strong reactions from South Korea and Japan, both of which have thus far refrained from directly aiding Ukraine militarily.

China: machine-tools and help with sanctions evasion

Despite the so-called “friendship without limits” between Beijing and Moscow, the People's Republic of China has not been observed providing direct material-technical support to the Russian Armed Forces in its conflict with Ukraine. However, China remains a critical supplier of military and dual-use products to the Russian defense industry, and there is evidence indicating increased shipments of precision machinery and equipment, with a significant portion of the Western-sanctioned goods that reach Russia getting there via China. The Insider recently conducted its own investigation into the specific methods used to facilitate such imports.

Thanks to Chinese assistance, Russia receives various UAV elements, including FPV drones and critical components for electronic warfare systems designed to counter these very drones. Ukrainian drone production enterprises also heavily rely on the Chinese component base. However, Russia holds a logistical advantage in this regard. Some drones are offered to Russian buyers as ready-made solutions, while others are purchased from AliExpress by Russian startups, which then pass them off as their own products.

Notably, among the ready-made drones, DJI products play an extremely significant role for both sides in the conflict. DJI UAVs serve as tactical reconnaissance tools and bombers for munition drops. DJI is associated with Russia's first direct military purchase of Chinese equipment: in 2023, the Russian Defense Ministry acquired Mavic quadcopters, which Russian servicemen could obtain for free (instructions on how to do so were even published in pro-war channels). Additionally, the Russian Ministry of Defense procured a large batch of Desertcross off-road vehicles (reportedly at an inflated price). These vehicles are increasingly being utilized at the front lines, serving as transportation for assault groups. While their use has garnered some negative feedback, in the face of a shortage of armored vehicles and means of transportation, they remain a necessary option.

It should be noted that the “assistance” from Chinese companies extends beyond equipment and components to include intelligence gathering. AFP reported that in November 2022, the late Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner PMC purchased two Chinese commercial satellites and utilized their imagery to plan operations in Ukraine, Africa, and even during their short-lived June 2023 mutiny in Russia itself.

However, despite Russia's efforts to secure direct Chinese military assistance starting from as early as the beginning of 2022, no such shipments have been confirmed. Based on comments from Chinese officials, Beijing appears intent on maintaining a cautiously pro-Russian stance on the international stage, while paying lip service to Ukraine's territorial integrity and a peaceful resolution to the conflict.

If China's stance were to shift, the Russian army could potentially gain access to a wide range of weaponry, from outdated kit to cutting-edge models. Considering that a potential Chinese conflict with Taiwan (or any other Pacific region adversary) would not be likely to burn through large stocks of armored vehicles and artillery, the potential for the transfer of such systems to Russia remains a real possibility. Furthermore, any Chinese restrictions on component supplies to Ukraine could pose a serious threat to Kyiv, at least until alternative supply routes through third-party countries and shell companies could be established — mirroring the very strategies employed by Russia to keep its military-industrial complex working.

[newstfionline]

Sunday, October 9, 2022

Biden calls the ‘prospect of Armageddon’ the highest since the Cuban missile crisis. (NYT) President Biden delivered a striking warning on Thursday night that recent threats from President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia could devolve into a nuclear conflict, telling supporters at a fund-raiser in New York City that the risk of atomic war had not been so high since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. Mr. Biden’s references to Armageddon were highly unusual for any American president. Since the Cuban Missile Crisis, 60 years ago this month, occupants of the Oval Office have rarely spoken in such grim tones about the possible use of nuclear weapons. The president’s warnings, delivered bluntly to a group of Democratic donors rather than in a more formal setting, came as analysts in Washington have been debating whether Mr. Putin might resort to tactical nuclear weapons to counter his mounting military losses in Ukraine.

Low Mississippi River (Bloomberg) The water level of the Mississippi is abnormally low owing to a lack of rain in the Midwest and the Plains states, and it’s jeopardizing the most important conduit for agriculture in the country. The river is closed near Stack Island, Mississippi, which has led to a backup of 117 vessels and 2,048 barges. About 92 percent of American agricultural exports come from the Mississippi river basin, traveling on barges. Those barges are massive: Each carries 1,750 tons of dry cargo, enough to fill 70 trucks, and a tow hauling 15 barges can move 900,000 bushels of grain. The low river level is sending prices up to ship, and the timing could not be worse.

Haiti’s leader requests foreign armed forces to quell chaos (AP) Haiti’s government has agreed to request the help of international troops as gangs and protesters paralyze the country and supplies of water, fuel and basic goods dwindle, according to a document published Friday. The document, signed by Prime Minister Ariel Henry and 18 top-ranking officials, states that they are alarmed by “the risk of a major humanitarian crisis” that is threatening the life of many people. It authorizes Henry to request from international partners “the immediate deployment of a specialized armed force, in sufficient quantity,” to stop the crisis across the country caused partly by the “criminal actions of armed gangs.” It wasn’t clear if the request had been formally submitted, to whom it would be submitted and whether it would mean the activation of United Nations peacekeeping troops, whose mission ended five years ago after a troubled 11 years in Haiti.

Britain’s grid warns of winter blackouts if Europe energy crisis escalates (Washington Post) Britain’s electricity operator said homes and businesses could face three-hour blackouts this winter if supplies run too low, preparing for a worst-case escalation of Europe’s energy crisis. The company described it as “unlikely” that the lights would go out but still outlined the prospect of a “more extreme scenario” in its winter forecast. The energy crunch fueled by Russia’s war in Ukraine has left European countries scrambling to build reserves as temperatures drop. A European Union official also warned this week that the 27-nation bloc could see blackouts this winter.

Spain’s Senate OKs law banning praise of former dictator Franco (Worldcrunch) The Spanish Senate has approved a new bill which bans expressions of support for the former dictator Francisco Franco. Called the “Law on Democratic Memory” it also includes honoring Franco’s victims and makes the state responsible for searching for the 114,000 people who are still unaccounted for after the Civil War.

Kremlin, shifting blame for war failures, axes military commanders (Washington Post) Russian Ground Forces Gen. Alexander Dvornikov, who over a 44-year military career was best-known for scorched-earth tactics in campaigns he led in Syria and Chechnya, was named overall operational commander of the war in Ukraine in April. He lasted about seven weeks before being dismissed. Around the same time, Col. Gen. Andrey Serdyukov, another four-decade serviceman, the commander in chief of the elite airborne troops, was stripped of his post after nearly all divisions of the airborne forces suffered major losses. And just last week Col. Gen. Alexander Zhuravlev, the head of the Western Military District responsible for Kharkiv, where Russian forces lost huge swaths of territory in early September, was removed after four years on the job. Far from bestowing glory on Russia’s military brass, the war in Ukraine is proving toxic for top commanders, with at least eight generals fired, reassigned or otherwise sidelined since the start of the invasion on Feb. 24. Western governments have said that at least 10 others were killed in battle, a remarkably high number that military analysts say is evidence of grievous strategic errors.

Crimea bridge blast (AP) A truck bomb Saturday caused a fire and the collapse of a section of a bridge linking Russia-annexed Crimea with Russia, Russian officials say, damaging a key supply artery for Moscow’s faltering war effort in southern Ukraine. The speaker of Crimea’s Kremlin-backed regional parliament immediately accused Ukraine, though the Kremlin didn’t apportion blame. Ukrainian officials have repeatedly threatened to strike the bridge and some lauded the attack, but Kyiv stopped short of claiming responsibility. The bombing came a day after Russian President Vladimir Putin turned 70, dealing him a humiliating blow that could lead him to up the ante in his war on Ukraine. Russia’s National Anti-Terrorism Committee said that the truck bomb caused seven railway cars carrying fuel to catch fire, resulting in a “partial collapse of two sections of the bridge.”

Five Hong Kong teenagers sentenced in first security case involving minors (Reuters) Five teenagers with a Hong Kong group advocating independence from Chinese rule were ordered by a judge on Saturday to serve up to three years in detention at a correctional facility, for urging an “armed revolution” in a national security case. The five, some of whom were minors aged between 15 and 18 at the time of the alleged offence, had pleaded guilty to “inciting others to subvert state power” through a group named “Returning Valiant”. Justice Kwok Wai-kin detailed how the defendants had advocated a “bloody revolution” to overthrow the Chinese state at street booths, and on Instagram and Facebook after adoption of a sweeping, China-imposed national security law. Authorities in Beijing and Hong Kong say the security law has restored stability to the global financial hub after mass anti-government and pro-democracy protests in 2019. Human rights experts on the United Nations Human Rights Committee, however, called for the law to be repealed in a July report, amid concerns it is being used to crack down on fundamental freedoms.

A pending new migrant crisis at Europe’s border? (Die Welt) Refugees in Turkey feel increasingly unwelcome. The mood in the country is at times openly hostile. Less than a year before Turkish presidential and parliamentary elections, many politicians are escalating their rhetoric. Time and again, they turn into attacks. And President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who long acted as the patron saint of refugees, is seeking rapprochement with the man from whom Syrians once fled: Bashar al-Assad. As a result, more and more people now want to make their way to the EU. When the civil war broke out in Syria in 2011, many Turks welcomed their fleeing neighbors with open arms. Turkey has taken in the most refugees in the world, with almost four million people with protection status registered in the country. An enormous achievement. But while a welcoming culture prevailed in the beginning, most Turks would now prefer to get rid of their supposed guests. A 2021 survey by the United Nations Refugee Agency found that 48% of respondents thought Syrians “should definitely be sent back.”

Syria’s cholera outbreak spreads across country, hits neighboring Lebanon (Washington Post) A recent outbreak of cholera in Syria has hit nearly all its provinces and spread to neighboring Lebanon, triggering alarms in both countries, where economic crises have exacerbated deteriorating health conditions. Syria’s cholera outbreak was declared on Sept. 10, and, by the end of the month, surveillance data showed more than 10,000 suspected cases across the country, UNICEF said this week. By Friday, Lebanon had recorded two cholera cases in Akkar province, the northernmost part of the country bordering Syria, according to Health Minister Firass Abiad. No cholera vaccines are available in the country at this time, Abiad told The Washington Post. Both Syria and Lebanon are mired in economic meltdowns that have wreaked havoc on every facet of life, including health conditions and water sanitation.

Lebanese banks to close ‘indefinitely’ as hold-ups continue (Aljazeera) Lebanese banks have decided to close their doors to clients indefinitely, two bankers have told Reuters, amid an unprecedented wave of hold-ups by frustrated depositors seeking access to their savings. The two sources told the news agency on Friday that banks would continue urgent operations for clients and back-office services for business, but front-office services would remain suspended. In mid-September, a young Lebanese woman, Sali Hafiz, was lauded as a national hero after forcing staff at a BLOM Bank branch in Beirut to give her thousands of dollars from her own account by waving a replica gun in order to fund her sister’s cancer treatment in hospital. She told Al Jazeera that her actions were a response to the bank “stealing” her money. Her case triggered a snowball effect with multiple hold-ups taking place since then as the population grows more frustrated over strict measures preventing depositors from accessing most of their dollar savings.

[kayla1993-world]

Russian troops began leaving the Chernobyl nuclear plant after soldiers got “significant doses” of radiation from digging trenches at the highly contaminated site, Ukraine’s state power company said Thursday as fighting raged on the outskirts of Kyiv and other fronts.

Energoatom did not explain the condition of the troops or how many were affected. But it said the Russians had dug in the forest inside the exclusion zone around the now-closed plant, the site in 1986 of the world’s worst nuclear disaster.

The troops “panicked at the first sign of illness,” which “showed up quickly,” and began preparing to leave, Energoatom said. There was no immediate comment from the Kremlin, and the International Atomic Energy Agency said it could not confirm reports of Russian troops receiving high doses. It said it was seeking more information.

Russian forces seized the Chernobyl site in the opening stages of the Feb. 24 invasion, raising fears they would cause damage or disruption that could spread radiation. The workforce at the site oversees the safe storage of spent fuel rods and the concrete-entombed ruins of the exploded reactor.

Edwin Lyman, a nuclear expert with the U.S.-based Union of Concerned Scientists, said it “seems unlikely” many troops would develop severe radiation illness, but it was impossible to know for sure without more details.

He said contaminated material becomes buried or covered with new topsoil during the cleanup of Chernobyl, and some soldiers may expose a “hot spot” of radiation while digging. Others may have assumed they were at risk too, he said.

The reported pullout came amid continued fighting and indications that the Kremlin is using talk of de-escalation as cover while regrouping and resupplying its forces and redeploying them for a stepped-up offensive in eastern Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine is seeing “a buildup of Russian forces for new strikes on the Donbas, and we are preparing for that.” Meanwhile, a convoy of buses headed to Mariupol in another bid to evacuate people from the besieged port city after the Russian military agreed to a limited cease-fire in the area. And a fresh round of talks aimed at stopping the fighting scheduled for Friday.

The Red Cross said its teams heading for Mariupol with medical supplies and other relief and hoped to take civilians out of the beleaguered city. Tens of thousands have got out of Mariupol in the past few weeks by humanitarian corridors, reducing its population from a prewar 430,000 to about 100,000 as of last week, but continued Russian attacks has thwarted other efforts to relieve the city.

At the same time Thursday, Russian forces shelled Kyiv suburbs, two days after the Kremlin announced it would significantly scale back operations near both the capital and the northern city of Chernihiv to increase trust between the two sides.

Britain’s Defense Ministry also reported “significant Russian shelling and missile strikes” around Chernihiv. The area’s governor, Viacheslav Chaus, said Russian troops were on the move but may not be withdrawing.

Russia’s military also reported conducting strikes on Ukrainian fuel supplies late Wednesday, and Ukrainian officials said there were artillery barrages in and around the northeastern city of Kharkiv over the past day.

Despite the fighting, Russia said it committed to a cease-fire along the route from Mariupol to the Ukraine-held city of Zaporizhzhia. Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk said they would send 45 buses to collect civilians who have suffered some of the worst privations of the war.

Food, water and medical supplies have all run low during a weeklong blockade and bombardment of the city. Civilians who have left have typically done so using private cars, but the number of drivable vehicles left in the city has dwindled and fuel is low.

“It’s desperately important that this operation takes place,” the Red Cross said in a statement. “The lives of tens of thousands of people in Mariupol depend on it.” Talks between Ukraine and Russia would have to resume Friday by video, according to the head of the Ukrainian delegation, David Arakhamia, fix weeks into a war that has seen thousands die and a staggering 4 million Ukrainians flee the country.

But there seemed little faith that the two sides would resolve the conflict anytime soon, particularly after the Russian attacks in zones where it had offered to scale back. Russian President Vladimir Putin said that conditions weren’t yet “ripe” for a cease-fire and that he wasn’t ready for a meeting with Zelenskyy until negotiators do more work, Italian Premier Mario Draghi said after a telephone conversation with the Russian leader.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said alliance intelligence shows Russia is not scaling back its military operations in Ukraine but is instead trying to regroup, resupply its forces and reinforce its offensive in the Donbas.

“Russia has repeatedly lied about its intentions,” Stoltenberg said. He said, pressure is being kept up on Kyiv and other cities, and “we can expect additional offensive actions bringing even more suffering.” The Donbas is the predominantly Russian-speaking industrial region where Moscow-backed separatists have been battling Ukrainian forces since 2014. In the past few days, the Kremlin, in a shift in its war aims, said that its “main goal” now is gaining control of the Donbas, which comprises the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, including Mariupol.

The top rebel leader in Donetsk, Denis Pushilin, issued an order to set up a rival city government for Mariupol, according to Russian state news agencies, in a sign of Russian intent to hold and administer the city. In the Kyiv suburbs, regional governor Oleksandr Palviuk said on social media that Russian forces shelled Irpin and Makariv and that there were battles around Hostomel. Pavliuk said there were Ukrainian counterattacks and some Russian withdrawals from the suburb of Brovary to the east.

Also, Ukraine’s emergency services said the death toll had risen to 20 in a Russian missile strike Tuesday on a government administration building in the southern city of Mykolaiv. As Western officials search for clues about what Russia’s next move might be, a top British intelligence official said demoralized Russian soldiers in Ukraine are refusing to carry out orders and sabotaging their equipment and had accidentally shot down their own aircraft.

In a speech in Australia, Jeremy Fleming, head of the GCHQ electronic spy agency, said Putin had apparently “massively misjudged” the invasion. U.S. intelligence officials have concluded that Putin is being misinformed by his advisers about how badly the war is going because they are afraid to tell him the truth.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that the U.S. is wrong and that “neither the State Department nor the Pentagon possesses the factual information about what is happening in the Kremlin.”

[atlanticcanada]

Russian forces leaving Chornobyl after radiation exposure

Russian troops began leaving the Chornobyl nuclear plant after soldiers got "significant doses" of radiation from digging trenches at the highly contaminated site, Ukraine's state power company said Thursday as heavy fighting raged on the outskirts of Kyiv and other fronts.

Energoatom, the operator, gave no immediate details on the condition of the troops or how many were affected. But it said the Russians had dug in in the forest inside the exclusion zone around the now-closed plant, the site in 1986 of the world's worst nuclear disaster.

The troops "panicked at the first sign of illness," which "showed up very quickly," and began to prepare to leave, Energoatom said.

The Russians seized the Chornobyl site in the opening stages of the Feb. 24 invasion, raising fears that they would cause damage or disruption that could spread radiation. The workforce at the site oversees the safe storage of spent fuel rods and the concrete-entombed ruins of the exploded reactor.

The pullout came amid continued fighting and indications that the Kremlin is using talk of de-escalation as cover while regrouping and resupplying its forces and redeploying them for a stepped-up offensive in eastern Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine is seeing "a buildup of Russian forces for new strikes on the Donbas, and we are preparing for that."

Meanwhile, a convoy of buses headed to Mariupol in another bid to evacuate people from the besieged port city after the Russian military agreed to a limited ceasefire in the area. And a new round of talks aimed at stopping the fighting was scheduled for Friday.

The Red Cross said its teams were headed for Mariupol with medical supplies and other relief and hoped to take civilians out of the beleaguered city. Tens of thousands have managed to get out in the past few weeks by way of humanitarian corridors, reducing the city's population from a prewar 430,000 to an estimated 100,000 as of last week, but other efforts have been thwarted by continued Russian attacks.

At the same time, Russian forces shelled Kyiv suburbs, two days after the Kremlin announced it would significantly scale back operations near both the capital and the northern city of Chernihiv to "increase mutual trust and create conditions for further negotiations."

Britain's Defence Ministry also reported "significant Russian shelling and missile strikes" around Chernihiv. The area's governor, Viacheslav Chaus, said Russian troops were on the move but may not be withdrawing.

Russia's Defence Ministry also reported new strikes on Ukrainian fuel stores late Wednesday, and Ukrainian officials said there were artillery barrages in and around the northeastern city of Kharkiv over the past day.

Despite the fighting raging in those areas, the Russian military said it committed to a ceasefire along the route from Mariupol to the Ukraine-held city of Zaporizhzhia.

Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk said 45 buses would be sent to collect civilians who have suffered some of the worst privations of the war.

Food, water and medical supplies have all run low during a weekslong blockade and bombardment of the city. Civilians who have managed to leave have typically done so using private cars, but the number of drivable vehicles left in the city has dwindled and fuel is low.

"It's desperately important that this operation takes place," the Red Cross said in a statement. "The lives of tens of thousands of people in Mariupol depend on it."

Talks between Ukraine and Russia were set to resume Friday by video, according to the head of the Ukrainian delegation, David Arakhamia, six weeks into a bloody war that has seen thousands die and a staggering 4 million Ukrainians flee the country.

But there seemed little faith that the two sides would resolve the conflict any time soon, particularly after the Russian military's attacks on places where it had offered to dial back.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said that conditions weren't yet "ripe" for a ceasefire in Ukraine and that he wasn't ready for a meeting with Zelenskyy until negotiators do more work, Italian Premier Mario Draghi said in recounting a telephone conversation he had with the Russian president on Wednesday.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said alliance intelligence indicates that Russia is not scaling back its military operations in Ukraine but is instead repositioning and redeploying forces to join attacks in the Donbas.

"Russia has repeatedly lied about its intentions," Stoltenberg said, adding that Russia "is trying to regroup, resupply and reinforce its offensive in the Donbas region." At the same time, he said, pressure is being kept up on Kyiv and other cities, and "we can expect additional offensive actions bringing even more suffering."

The Donbas is the predominantly Russian-speaking industrial region where Moscow-backed separatists have been battling Ukrainian forces since 2014. In the past few days, the Kremlin, in a seeming shift in its war aims, said that its "main goal" now is gaining control of the Donbas, which consists of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, including Mariupol.

The top rebel leader in Donetsk, Denis Pushilin, issued an order to set up a rival city government for Mariupol, according to Russian state news agencies, in a sign of Russian intent to hold and administer the city.

In the Kyiv suburbs, regional governor Oleksandr Palviuk said on social media that Russian forces shelled Irpin and Makariv and that there were battles around Hostomel. Pavliuk said there were Ukrainian counterattacks and some Russian withdrawals around the suburb of Brovary to the east.

Also, Ukraine's emergency services said the death toll had risen to 20 in a Russian missile strike Tuesday on a government administration building in the southern city of Mykolaiv.

As Western officials search for clues about what Russia's next move might be, a top British intelligence official said demoralized Russian soldiers in Ukraine are refusing to carry out orders and sabotaging their equipment and had accidentally shot down their own aircraft.

In a speech in Australia, Jeremy Fleming, head of the GCHQ electronic spy agency, said Putin had apparently "massively misjudged" the invasion. U.S. intelligence officials have similarly concluded that Putin is being misinformed by his advisers about how badly the war is going because they are afraid to tell him the truth.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that the U.S. is wrong and that "neither the State Department nor the Pentagon possesses the real information about what is happening in the Kremlin."

In other developments, Putin authorized drafting 134,500 new conscripts starting April 1. The draft is a routine event but comes amid concerns that some draftees could be deployed to Ukraine.

Putin and Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu have given assurances that conscripts will not take part in the war in Ukraine. Earlier this month, however, the Russian military admitted that a number of conscripts ended up in Ukraine and were captured there.

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Karmanau reported from Lviv, Ukraine. Associated Press journalists around the world contributed to this report.

from CTV News - Atlantic https://ift.tt/G72Okjm

[overhoff-credentials]

Starve nuclear weapons to death with a tritium freeze

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Proponents of nuclear non-proliferation will be pleased in late 2020 as the 2017 Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) crosses the threshold of 50 ratifications and enters into force. Under this treaty, it will be illegal to hold nuclear weapons, and the parties will have to dismantle any in their possession. The problem with the TPNW approach is that no state that actually possesses nuclear weapons has signed it or is likely to. An alternative to this ‘all-or-nothing’ approach is needed—a freeze on the production of tritium is a different way to manage nuclear disarmament that will gradually bring an end to nuclear weapons.

Tritium and its critical role in nuclear weapons

Tritium is a radioactive isotope of hydrogen (hydrogen-3). It is used in the nuclear weapon systems of most of the five nuclear weapon states (NWS)—China, France, the United Kingdom, the United States and Russia—today to ‘boost’ the yield of a fission weapon or fission primary. It is important to note that elemental tritium is not used in hydrogen bombs.

While tritium is necessary for boosted nuclear weapons to function, it is not a nuclear material as defined by international statute. It is a radioactive gas and decays with a half-life of 12.3 years. That means that half of this material disappears every 12.3 years.

This relatively short half-life distinguishes tritium from the fissile materials used in nuclear bombs, such as plutonium and highly enriched uranium (HEU). For many years diplomats have tried to negotiate a fissile material cut-off treaty (FMCT) to prohibit the further production of fissile materials. But an FMCT would leave stockpiles frozen at high levels without increase or decrease. Unlike the FMCT, a proposed tritium cut-off treaty (TCOT) would begin to reduce weapons stocks immediately because of tritium’s natural decay.

Neutron bombs, believed to be in the stockpiles of China and Israel, would be among the first casualties of a TCOT. The neutron bomb uses large quantities of tritium to produce a huge flood of neutrons designed to kill living organisms but produce a drastically reduced blast. The USA abandoned this type of weapon because of its high tritium consumption, many times that of a boosted weapon.

Why a tritium cut-off treaty could work

A TCOT would be more likely to be accepted politically as it does not demand immediate and total disarmament. Under such a treaty, the reduction in nuclear stockpiles would take place gradually, inexorably and without human intervention. Radioactive decay does the job—the essential material simply disappears. Unlike uranium and plutonium—which have half-lives of thousands of years—tritium decays quickly enough to force a natural arms reduction. The process is fast enough to be seen as a genuine step towards nuclear disarmament. It is slow enough for states to monitor its effectiveness and to withdraw from a TCOT if they feel it is not working.

Note that even under a nuclear weapon ban treaty such as the TPNW, disarmament would be a slow process. The actual dismantlement of nuclear weapons takes decades. For example, in 2013, thousands of Russian weapons were eliminated permanently by burning their HEU components in power reactors to produce electricity (ironically in the USA). It took about 20 years to dismantle the weapons, verify their dismantlement and convert the uranium to reactor fuel. No matter what treaty path is chosen this is an illustrative timeline.

Furthermore another agreement for the conversion of plutonium to fuel for electricity, the Plutonium Management and Disposition Agreement between the USA and Russia, eventually broke down because the USA was unable to build the factory to do the job. Much of the Russian factory was completed, ironically again, with US financial aid. This agreement was signed in 2000 and abrogated in 2016. Good intentions were not enough.

Politicians are more likely to embrace a treaty that begins slowly but visibly. The NWS regard nuclear weapons as vital to their security so total disarmament without a verification experience is seen as precipitous. Freezing tritium production gives each state time to observe the working of a TCOT, to implement and monitor any safeguards from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO), and to convince their public and their military that the move is in its national interest.

This is similar to the voluntary suspension of nuclear explosive testing. The rate of testing slowed drastically for a number of years. When the major states simply stopped testing, the positive value of this voluntary move was apparent to policymakers and was easy to convey to the public and the military establishment (even without the entry into force of the 1996 Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT)). No state gained an advantage over any other during the period when testing slowed and ceased. It was seen as no longer necessary. This was a cooperative effort on the part of the NWS without acceding to the CTBT.

There are also some major implications for cost savings, such as in the above-mentioned case of repurposing Russian uranium weapons for generating electricity in the USA. The cost of dismantlement was hugely offset by the enormous value of the uranium fuel produced. There are also major implications for changes in military doctrine. In the first year or so of a tritium freeze, tritium reserves can be used to refresh most weapons in the stockpile. Within a few years the dwindling supply will need to be distributed to fewer and fewer weapons and many will need to be removed from active service. This will have major impacts on doctrine.

Take, for example, the nuclear triad that the USA touts as necessary: ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs), intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) in silos and bombers. Justifying a triad would become increasingly difficult under a TCOT as warheads cease to function. This is the essence of irreversible denuclearization: constant pressure to redistribute dwindling tritium stocks until it is no longer possible to have an effective strategic stockpile.

Countries considering building new nuclear delivery systems would need to take pause if there will be no warheads for them to deliver. The greatest resistance to a TCOT will come from the military-industrial complex that builds enormously expensive weapon systems, such as a new fleet of SSBNs or a new generation of ICBMs with the same vulnerabilities as the existing arsenal. Cost savings of deferring the planned US nuclear weapons modernization can run into trillions of dollars.

The effectiveness of a tritium freeze

What is the effect of removing tritium from a nuclear warhead? A good example is revealed in unclassified information about the UK's Trident warhead. The full yield of the warhead is about 100 kilotons as designed and deployed. There is a version that only has the fission-stage boosted primary for relatively small engagements. But if the tritium is removed from the fission stage, then the yield drops to only 0.3 kt. Although 0.3 kt is not total disarmament, it is small enough to be militarily insignificant, especially when launched from a multibillion-dollar platform: a Trident submarine. Simply put, modern nuclear weapons without tritium are not military weapons.

Monitoring and verifying a tritium cut-off treaty

Verifying a tritium freeze could be accomplished with arrangements similar to IAEA safeguards on plutonium and HEU. Tritium would need to be defined to be a weapon-usable material of the same class as nuclear materials. Verification would be similar to the IAEA’s existing mission of verifying legal stocks of existing nuclear materials. It would require new technologies and training for inspectors, but this is not an insurmountable problem.

Tritium has legitimate civilian uses, largely exploiting its beta particle emission for such uses as self-illuminating lights requiring no electric power source, medical procedures and as a radioactive tracer. Tritium is considered to be a future source of electricity in fusion reactors, although this application has been a goal for at least 60 years and is unlikely to be realized for many more decades. Legitimate uses of tritium can easily be accommodated under an IAEA-type monitoring programme just as large quantities of uranium and plutonium are monitored for the civilian power cycle. The civilian market for tritium is tiny compared to the fissile material nuclear fuel cycle. It would not be a huge burden to monitor.

Tritium is a radioactive gas similar to normal hydrogen. Its radioactive properties mean that there is no point in clandestinely stockpiling it because it is constantly disappearing through decay. Tritium that escapes to the environment can be monitored using gas-sampling systems similar to the ones fielded today by the CTBTO. The CTBTO’s worldwide network of samplers is designed to detect other radioactive substances. Adding tritium detectors to a functioning and reliable existing network would be feasible and not costly.

Tritium has historically been produced in dedicated military production reactors at temperatures and pressures much lower than commercial electric power-production reactors. The USA was forced to develop new technology to produce tritium in some US commercial power reactors. The technological hurdles were difficult. Furthermore, such an activity in a nuclear power reactor subject to IAEA safeguards would be notable, distinctive and subject to investigation and verification.

Challenges bringing states on board

Bringing in other states that possess nuclear weapons, particularly India and Pakistan, will be the most difficult task. For example, the five NWS have essentially voluntarily implemented an FMCT-like posture. Since China is not transparent it may be an exception. Significantly, India and Pakistan are actively producing HEU and plutonium, both for nuclear bombs and for the propulsion of future SSBNs. Pakistan, in particular, has been a major impediment to achieving an FMCT. These two states are actively increasing their nuclear weapon stockpiles through fissile material production and it will be difficult to persuade them to end tritium production. They may also have weapons in their stockpiles that do not use tritium at all, reducing the value of a TCOT.

Israel, on the other hand, does not even admit to having nuclear weapons, a poorly kept political secret. SIPRI estimates that Israel has 90 nuclear weapons, largely based on plutonium. Israel’s tritium production, if any, comes from its 56-year-old Dimona reactor, which is approaching the end of its lifetime. Israel could easily agree to a tritium freeze because its production is going to end in the near future. Israel will already be busily searching for ways to keep its stockpile effective in the absence of tritium or it may come to depend on its ample conventional strength.

The case of Israel is unusual but illustrative. The Israeli stockpile is presumed to have many thermonuclear weapons. Yet Israel has not used nuclear weapons in its disagreements with its neighbours. Instead it uses high-precision conventional explosives to target individual buildings and sites from which it believes threats emanate, for example in Gaza. Its powerful nuclear weapons have little application beyond deterrence in its current military posture.

Denuclearization begins on day one

Freezing tritium supplies is an attractive disarmament step because it begins inexorably on day one of the treaty going into force. It does not make any state suddenly vulnerable to attack from another. All TCOT states parties will begin to see natural radioactive decay reduce their stockpiles on an identical basis. After 12.3 years each state will have exactly half of its tritium left and will have had to make some hard choices about dismantling its nuclear weapon stockpile. A great deal can change in 12 years: entire weapons systems will become obsolete and remaining military objectives will be constantly reassessed. The USA will hold three presidential elections. Under these circumstances, politicians and the public will see measurable progress and reduced threats.

A negotiated TCOT is an attractive adjunct to other approaches to disarmament. It begins the process of making weapons obsolete on the first day of its implementation. Every day that a TCOT exists, more and more weapons will become disabled. At first there will be an effort to redistribute dwindling tritium stocks to the weapons considered most essential. This effort, in itself will illustrate why legacy cold war weapons systems no longer matter. It will become increasingly apparent that the huge stockpiles targeted on adversary missile systems are obsolete in an age of precise conventional targeting against military objectives and asymmetric warfare against small, often urban targets. Implementation of a TCOT could mean that, after 25 years, 75 per cent of nuclear weapons that use tritium will have disappeared.

Implementation of a TCOT would require a new definition of tritium as a material similar to existing nuclear materials. Verification and inspections are missions familiar to the CTBTO International Monitoring System and the IAEA. A cooperative working agreement between these two international organizations would be necessary.

A complete nuclear weapon ban treaty, such as the TPNW, is a lofty and worthwhile goal. But its total immediate implementation is a difficult option for the NWS, with their shared monopoly on powerful weapons. The TCOT offers a simpler option based on radioactive decay that will immediately, slowly but inexorably eliminate large nuclear weapon stockpiles and highlight the need for rethinking nuclear deterrence.

For More Information: http://overhoff.com/

[argumate]

Russian forces conducted air, missile, and drone strikes against targets in Ukraine at a markedly slower tempo than in previous days. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on October 24 that Russian forces conducted 2 missile and 28 air strikes, and Ukrainian forces shot down 16 Shahed-136 drones on October 23. The slower tempo of Russian air, missile, and drone strikes possibly reflects decreasing missile and drone stockpiles and the strikes’ limited effectiveness of accomplishing Russian strategic military goals.

Ukraine’s Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Chief, Major General Kyrylo Budanov, stated on October 24 that the impact of Russian terrorist strikes against critical Ukrainian infrastructure is waning as Russian forces further deplete their limited arsenal of cruise missiles. Budanov stated that Russian forces have stopped targeting Ukraine’s military infrastructure, instead aiming for civilian infrastructure to incite panic and fear in Ukrainians. Budanov noted, however, that Russian forces will fail as Ukrainians are better adapted to strategic bombing than at the beginning of the war. Budanov claimed that Russian forces have used most of their cruise missile arsenal and only have 13 percent of their pre-war Iskander, 43 percent of Kaliber, and 45 percent of Kh-101 and Kh-555 pre-war stockpiles left, supporting ISW’s prior reports on dwindling Russian precision-guided munition stockpiles. Budanov noted that Russian cruise missiles lack precision, as a missile likely intended to hit the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) building in Kyiv missed its target by 800 meters. Budanov stated that Russia’s dwindling supply of cruise missiles is forcing the Russian military to rely on Iranian drones but that Iranian suppliers only send 300 drones per shipment and that the drones take a long time to manufacture. Budanov stated that Ukrainian air defenses shoot down 70 percent of all Shahed-136 drones, including 222 of the 330 Russia has used so far. It is impossible to assess the degree to which ongoing unrest and growing strikes in Iran might interfere with Tehran’s ability to manufacture and ship drones to Russia.