#retrace xci

[fivekrystalpetals]

I haven't really written anything about Noise but Retrace 97 compelled me to write something about her because, by god, of all characters, Noise died the loneliest death ;-;

Break died surrounded by his friends and family. Oscar died after seeing off his kids. Even Fang got a chance to apologize to his family as he was dying. (Elliot's is another matter--but at the least, he got a conclusive death. He wanted to be the one to crack the mystery of his family's serial killing which he did and he died next to his best friend and his big brother. His death continued to be grieved by people who cared about him up until the end.)

But Noise? Yes, Oz was there while her body was breaking apart but..... he was not there for Noise--he was there for Echo. And, Ada came all the way into the Past Sablier to be there for Vincent.

But... Noise.....??

to be honest, isn't that how it's always been? Right from the beginning, nobody was ever there for Noise... this poor girl who became an anomaly because she couldn't control her chain properly, who became a Baskerville but could neither fully become one nor return to being a human either, who couldn't even sleep because her chain might take control of her body and go on a rampage, who was locked up in an underground cellar, this girl who forgot her own name because her mind was so Noisy...

In spite of all her suffering, she still used to have a kind heart before she lost all sense of self. She still looked out for Vincent in whatever way she could:

You can actually feel the loneliness radiating off her in this panel; she doesn't feel included anywhere--she is still in the dark while Vincent has been pulled out into the light by his new friends.

Yes, it is toxic of her wanting to keep Vincent to herself and trying to kill him as soon as he finds new friends in a if-I-can't-have-you-then-no-one-can way.... but both her heart as well as her mind were already completely broken at this point. All she remembers is that slight feeling of protectiveness that got twisted to being possessive over him; she wanted to continue taking care of him in her own way even if she forgot what their original relationship was like.

I actually wanted to talk about this panel too (Retrace 91):

(Let me just set aside the context that Noise is actively trying to kill Ada and Ada is trying to buy time by talking because I want to talk about their words.)

Noise says Ada shouldn't pretend like she knows everything about Vincent and Noise, which is true in a way.... Because, you see, and as much as I love Ada, I still have to admit Ada is selective in what she is trying to figure out. She wants to know more about Vincent, not Noise. She doesn't know (and probably never will) that Noise was once a good onee-san to Vincent and his only true friend when he was surrounded by manipulative adults. So, I don't think Ada is the best person to give an opinion about Noise and Vincent's history when she hardly knows anything about them?

Again, I agree with what she says. Not knowing everything is not a crime, you can always learn things later on; yes, it's true but this line:

You're being criminal by being judgemental without even trying to understand!!

--honestly, applies to Ada too? Because Ada is also being judgemental about Noise without understanding her at all. Ada (and Oz and others too, for that matter) believe that Echo is the 'kind' personality while Noise is the mindless killer personality that takes over Echo.

When, in fact, it's the other way round. It's because of the power of the Abyss (and so, indirectly her chain) that Noise started losing her mind in the first place. Her mind was filled with so much noise that she feared and had dreams of turning into a monster (idk if her mental deterioration was already present before her contract) but I do know Doldum/Duldee (Echos) was only making the matter worse. Yes, all the Echos tried to protect her heart by preserving some of her memories bit by bit but.... wasn't it also because of the chain from the Abyss that she has been suffering all along?

See, again, Ada doesn't grasp the full essence of Noise's words. Of course, she has no way of knowing unless Noise tells her but...

Noise doesn't mean here that Vincent and Noise are different because they are Baskervilles. No, she means they are different because they are the only ones who are not 'proper' Baskervilles, who are cast out from being both human and Baskerville, who are not included anywhere.

Noise was an anomaly because of her weakness to the Abyss and her inability to control her own chain. Vincent was an anomaly because he was a child of ill-omen (something that doesn't exist in Ada's timeline). And those are his words Noise repeats that since both of them were aberrations, it won't be wrong if they stayed together because then, for each other, they can be 'normal'.

Ada is really missing a huge chunk of context here. I agree wholeheartedly that Ada will accept him even if he is a Baskerville and a Child of Misfortune because she is a kind soul, she is gonna accept and forgive Vincent no matter what.

But I am not talking about Ada and Vincent here, but about Noise. The point here is that Ada doesn't understand where Noise is coming from. For Noise, Vincent was the only way she could feel 'normal', among humans or Baskervilles. She heavily related to him, she latched onto him as the only one who could understand her, she did everything, became everything Vincent asked of her; at her heart, Noise, like every character in this story, just does not want to be lonely anymore.

This panel actually made me feel so bad for Noise. Time and again, Ada stands up for Vincent, Oz stands up for Echo, but who stands up for Noise?

(btw, please don't take this in a wrong way. I love Oz and Ada, and I am genuinely amazed and touched at that they can still distinguish Echo from Noise, sympathize with Echo for being an unwilling accomplice and bear no grudge against her in spite of Noise having a major hand in Uncle Oscar's death.

I am just trying to look at the story from Noise's perspective and doing that makes me realize that most of the major characters have no idea what Noise really was like. heck, even Noise didn't know at the time of Retrace 91; she remembers the truth only at the time of her death (Retrace 97).

Because Noise, too, once was a sweet, caring soul just like the present and last Echo (Eko-chan, I will refer to her as that to differentiate her from other Echos). Bit-by-bit, Noise lost all she knew about herself the longer she used her chain and created more Echos. As I said, both Oz and Ada are judging her from what they see before their eyes, not knowing how shattered and sick her mind is at the moment. I can't blame them ofc because that's what I too might have to do when the person before me is actively trying to kill me,, but knowing the context and her backstory, her presence in the story exudes so much loneliness.)

See, you can feel the despair and tiredness already seeping into her. She starts to lash out and reject people around her, even those who care about her to some extent; she doesn't even know what she wants anymore.

She wants to meet Vincent to, she believes, kill him because he is not hers anymore. But what I think is she subconsciously still possesses the protectiveness of a big sister and knows Vincent is in trouble, that's why she wants to go after him to make sure he is okay.

She says the same here (Retrace 97):

...I've had enough. I'm already so tired...

You know, what's even sadder? Eko is not a different person. Taking away the context of a chain and the fantasy surrounding it, she is simply a personality created by the weak-minded Noise to take on her unbearable suffering (like Split Personality (DID) patients do). So when Eko says:

--and asks her to remember herself, Noise is, in fact, in a way, talking to herself. It's the last sane part of her mind that's realized that her body can't hold out longer, and talks to the shattered, tired and lonely part of her, tries to recoup some of her memories so she doesn't end up doing something she'd regret, like killing her only friend and so that she gets a proper closure in death.

To say, Noise has no one but her imaginary self to console and hold her during her final moments. She died as lonely as she lived. I am happy Echo dies in Oz's arms, but....Noise? ;_;

Annnnd, even in the Happy Ending that the author gave us--the Everyone lives/No one dies one from Retrace 104-- where is the original personality of Noise? 😭

(how I wanted to see a normal interaction between Zwei, Gil and Oz; her teasing Oz, "Echo is shy to come out and meet you, so you just have to deal with me today 😈")

Further, about Vincent and Noise--

Something Noise says about Ada (Retrace 91):

Vincent got close to you only to take advantage of you.... You were so carefree…so stupid!

Actually, her words apply to herself as well. Vincent was only using Noise as a tool to his cause because he thought she was a stupid girl who would listen to his every word.

But my question is: does he even remember Noise as that onee-san who used to look out for him? Did he know it and choose to forget? Or, did he really forget? He was even the one who gave her the nickname after she forgot her own. Is it possible he forgot who Noise was to him whereas he remembers even the traumatic events of Sablier (something Gil misplaced his memories of)? Or, did he purposely suppress his good memories so he can recall his days as a Baskerville as being full of pain so that it makes his planned death easier for him?

I don't know but there is an equal chance of him genuinely forgetting who Noise was to him and him knowing everything yet acting like he didn't. If the latter, it's totally messed up on his part. Because Noise forgetting herself doesn't mean Vincent can distort their original relationship? How could he cross the boundary and do what he pleases to a broken, amnesiac girl who used to be his big-sister-like figure once?

This is the reason I am kind of skeptical about Ada saying she would forgive Vincent for everything. Offering him forgiveness for his past mistakes that he committed as a misguided, manipulated child is perfectly alright; but his deeds as an adult? Sorry but Ada doesn't even know half the picture of what Vincent really is like.

Either way, her last thoughts for Ada and Vincent were so sweet and makes me wish she was around, at least, in the Alternate Ending as the cool big sister for the kids.

Another heart-breaking line:

I never wanted to hurt him. Not even if there was no place for me at his side

Why does everything have to be a love triangle? Why can't everyone be a huge fun found family so that nobody feels left out and lonely? I wonder what Noise would be like when she is not in captivity or despair-fuelled-killing-spree. I feel like she would be feisty and sharp-witted, a complete opposite of the shy Echo, and would be going around trolling and teasing the kids lol

Ending this with the panel here, because in spite of their rocky relationship, chatting with Vincent were the few times Noise genuinely smiled ;-;

[terrancedkennedy]

The Trump Trade is Dead...all hail the Xi Trade

With all of the fuss around yesterday’s Comey testimony, I thought it would be a good time to have a look at the “Trump trades” from the beginning of the year. The charts will show that, as in the pic above, despite continued bluster and gesticulating, the “Trump Trade” has given way to the “Xi Trade”.

After the election, the big one was “Trumpflation.” The idea was that Trump is going to spend a ton of money on infrastructure and defense, leading to more bond supply, higher deficits, higher term premiums and higher inflation.  This lead to an acceleration in global growth expectations, pushing inflation expectations higher around the world.

Since November, 5y5y US breakevens have been trending lower consistently. EUR 5y5y breaks took longer to reach recent highs and have been more reluctant to retrace given a better run of economic data. US breaks have retraced the whole move higher since the election, while EUR breaks are still about 10bps off those levels.

Real yields have a case of the “suppo-sta’s”. They were suppos-sta go higher.

Nominal yields have bull flattened, indicating a quick end to the Fed’s tightening cycle--not exactly a vote of confidence in Trump’s ability to increase growth rates in the US.

Not much to pick from between 10y UST (blue) and the 10y UST/Bund spread (orange).

We were also told USD would stay strong since Trump had finally solved the growth riddle, simply by promising to spend a ton of money to spur domestic demand and business investment.  EUR and JPY depreciated hand-in-hand, but JPY has gone sideways while EUR has been ripping. Jens Nordvig, head of Exante Data and former Nomura FX guru, believes there has been a fundamental turn in capital flows back towards Europe. This ties out to my intuition--in 2016 capital fled Europe due to QE and low growth expectations. Now growth has picked up (a little bit, anyway), and the Trump demand resurgence has been exposed as a lot of hot air. The German export powerhouse flexes its muscle again.

The most famous blast zone of Trump risk was usd/mxn and Mex rates. The peso fell 6% on the day after the election, and after coming back modestly into year end, melted down completely shortly after New Year’s when Trump unleashed a Twitter bomb suggesting he would implement a “border tax” on Mexican auto imports and withdraw from NAFTA. MXN moved opposite of EMFX at large, which was recovering nicely.

MXN (red) vs. EMFX (purple, inverted so it moves the same direction as MXN)

This is a chart of the residuals of usd/mxn vs. the EMFX Index--higher figures indicate MXN is cheap relative to the regression. This shows how MXN has not only closed the gap from November outright but also unwound all of the underperformance relative to the rest of EM complex.

Similarly, TIIE got demolished by Banxico aggressively hiking rates to defend the peso or financial stability, the locals' paranoia about Trump, and corporates with USD liabilities crushing offers in the cross-currency market, leaving banks as huge payers into a market with no bid.  

In late February, Banxico implemented measures to backstop the peso and stabilize rates. Those measures combined with very attractive real and nominal forward rates convinced foreigners to buy duration, and local pension funds chased yields lower after moving aggressively into short duration and linkers in a futile attempt to shield themselves from the selloff in rates. These accounts extended duration as Banxico continued to hike and global curves flattened. 2x10 TIIE officially at zero….Bottom line: the herd turned.

Next was stocks. “Risk on!” Came the cry from equity desks around the world. More spending! Lower corporate taxes! Offshore corporate profits repatriation! Business confidence! Deregulation! Financials and oil/gas stocks led the way, thankful that one of their own was finally back in the White House.  

Since the beginning of the year financials (XLF) have chopped around while oil/gas stocks (XOI) have gotten hammered by the combo of a slothful, inept Trump administration and lower oil prices.

Similarly, small cap stocks stood strong after the election--Trump was going to cut taxes, regulate, cancel Obamacare, etc. etc. Sorry, Charlie.

Alright, but the S&P had a great run after the election--why hasn’t it given back any of its gains? The sectors that underperformed in November and December have reversed course--Health Care (XLV), and here’s the big one--technology (XCI). The 20% gain in tech has plugged the hole in the index left by the sectors that led the big move higher late last year. Thank you, Mr. Beta.  

And lastly from the equity world, there was Trump’s mantra borrowed from populist windbags the world around, “Putting America First.” A funny thing happened on the way to autarky--an avalanche of money flowed into emerging market equities.

Why the reversal? Copper prices rocketed higher after the election because Trump was going to build more stuff. Here’s one that has held up, but credit goes not to Trump but to the resurgence in EM growth and Chinese demand--the Xi Trade.

Copper (HG1)

Lastly, there is credit. IG spreads were already recovering after the brutal start to 2016 and the shock from Brexit. They never really took much of a breather, just continued to grind tighter and tighter.

Vol played a significant role in this as well--was the utter destruction of vol one of his campaign promises?  IG implied vol has clattered through the lows. Like tech stocks leading the S&P higher, this is credit traders juicing coupons and eating their seed corn.

By contrast S&P vol is certainly historically low but hasn’t seen the steep decline of bond and credit vol.

Where does that leave us? I try to avoid crystal ball stuff but here’s how I see it:

Trump and the US political scene at large: I think he’s done politically--and taken together, the market agrees. Trump is going to be fighting with Congress, Comey and Muller until the GOP majorities get liquidated in the mid-terms. After that his agenda is over, and Democrats will be circling like sharks around a wounded tuna.

Nominal rates and breaks have priced fiscal stimulus at zero, which close to the right price given the way Trump has frittered away his modest political capital.  But the flattening of the curve and unwinding of hikes by the FOMC beyond this year shows markets are somewhat complacent about inflation picking up on its own accord. That being said, don’t hold your breath.  

EUR can continue to benefit from a sea change in capital flows after several years of outflows.

Mexico: We come here today to bury the “NAFTA withdrawal” trade. Again, if Trump could have put together a coalition of domestic manufactuers, unions, and xenophobes to rip up the treaty, he missed his chance. The TIIE curve will invert as growth stagnates and the inflation spike fades, but Banxico will be loathe to cut rates too quickly ahead of the 2018 election. Election risk will become salient around the end of the year when polls should start to become more reliable as it becomes clear who PRI and PAN will run against AMLO, but Trump’s ham-handed political circus will take some of the air out of AMLO’s campaign.

Stocks--Can’t stop the Feeling! Just dance, dance, dance…. Seriously, corporate profits will have to “show me the money” to keep this train rolling, but that hasn’t stopped the market before. This probably would have gotten me fired as an equity manager but I believe value is indicative of future returns--and I can’t see how this chart and current demographic and geopolitical trends end in a reasonable return on risk capital, unless 1929, 1966, and 2000 were really good times to buy stocks.

IG, HG, vol--see above.   Taken together, real money is getting squeezed and is increasing risk by buying tech, high yield, selling vol etc. to keep the ball rolling. The longer it goes on, the smaller the exit door gets.

EUR, DXY, EM--the prior two bullets notwithstanding, I think the flows can keep going--I prefer EM rates over EMFX--but I’ll want the hedges I discussed in Wednesday’s post in my back pocket. The resilient copper chart illustrates global demand is still stronger than it was last year. This is the new paradigm for 2017….the Xi Trade.

[peterlharden]

The Trump Trade is Dead...all hail the Xi Trade

With all of the fuss around yesterday’s Comey testimony, I thought it would be a good time to have a look at the “Trump trades” from the beginning of the year. The charts will show that, as in the pic above, despite continued bluster and gesticulating, the “Trump Trade” has given way to the “Xi Trade”.

After the election, the big one was “Trumpflation.” The idea was that Trump is going to spend a ton of money on infrastructure and defense, leading to more bond supply, higher deficits, higher term premiums and higher inflation.  This lead to an acceleration in global growth expectations, pushing inflation expectations higher around the world.

Since November, 5y5y US breakevens have been trending lower consistently. EUR 5y5y breaks took longer to reach recent highs and have been more reluctant to retrace given a better run of economic data. US breaks have retraced the whole move higher since the election, while EUR breaks are still about 10bps off those levels.

Real yields have a case of the “suppo-sta’s”. They were suppos-sta go higher.

Nominal yields have bull flattened, indicating a quick end to the Fed’s tightening cycle--not exactly a vote of confidence in Trump’s ability to increase growth rates in the US.

Not much to pick from between 10y UST (blue) and the 10y UST/Bund spread (orange).

We were also told USD would stay strong since Trump had finally solved the growth riddle, simply by promising to spend a ton of money to spur domestic demand and business investment.  EUR and JPY depreciated hand-in-hand, but JPY has gone sideways while EUR has been ripping. Jens Nordvig, head of Exante Data and former Nomura FX guru, believes there has been a fundamental turn in capital flows back towards Europe. This ties out to my intuition--in 2016 capital fled Europe due to QE and low growth expectations. Now growth has picked up (a little bit, anyway), and the Trump demand resurgence has been exposed as a lot of hot air. The German export powerhouse flexes its muscle again.

The most famous blast zone of Trump risk was usd/mxn and Mex rates. The peso fell 6% on the day after the election, and after coming back modestly into year end, melted down completely shortly after New Year’s when Trump unleashed a Twitter bomb suggesting he would implement a “border tax” on Mexican auto imports and withdraw from NAFTA. MXN moved opposite of EMFX at large, which was recovering nicely.

MXN (red) vs. EMFX (purple, inverted so it moves the same direction as MXN)

This is a chart of the residuals of usd/mxn vs. the EMFX Index--higher figures indicate MXN is cheap relative to the regression. This shows how MXN has not only closed the gap from November outright but also unwound all of the underperformance relative to the rest of EM complex.

Similarly, TIIE got demolished by Banxico aggressively hiking rates to defend the peso or financial stability, the locals' paranoia about Trump, and corporates with USD liabilities crushing offers in the cross-currency market, leaving banks as huge payers into a market with no bid.  

In late February, Banxico implemented measures to backstop the peso and stabilize rates. Those measures combined with very attractive real and nominal forward rates convinced foreigners to buy duration, and local pension funds chased yields lower after moving aggressively into short duration and linkers in a futile attempt to shield themselves from the selloff in rates. These accounts extended duration as Banxico continued to hike and global curves flattened. 2x10 TIIE officially at zero….Bottom line: the herd turned.

Next was stocks. “Risk on!” Came the cry from equity desks around the world. More spending! Lower corporate taxes! Offshore corporate profits repatriation! Business confidence! Deregulation! Financials and oil/gas stocks led the way, thankful that one of their own was finally back in the White House.  

Since the beginning of the year financials (XLF) have chopped around while oil/gas stocks (XOI) have gotten hammered by the combo of a slothful, inept Trump administration and lower oil prices.

Similarly, small cap stocks stood strong after the election--Trump was going to cut taxes, regulate, cancel Obamacare, etc. etc. Sorry, Charlie.

Alright, but the S&P had a great run after the election--why hasn’t it given back any of its gains? The sectors that underperformed in November and December have reversed course--Health Care (XLV), and here’s the big one--technology (XCI). The 20% gain in tech has plugged the hole in the index left by the sectors that led the big move higher late last year. Thank you, Mr. Beta.  

And lastly from the equity world, there was Trump’s mantra borrowed from populist windbags the world around, “Putting America First.” A funny thing happened on the way to autarky--an avalanche of money flowed into emerging market equities.

Why the reversal? Copper prices rocketed higher after the election because Trump was going to build more stuff. Here’s one that has held up, but credit goes not to Trump but to the resurgence in EM growth and Chinese demand--the Xi Trade.

Copper (HG1)

Lastly, there is credit. IG spreads were already recovering after the brutal start to 2016 and the shock from Brexit. They never really took much of a breather, just continued to grind tighter and tighter.

Vol played a significant role in this as well--was the utter destruction of vol one of his campaign promises?  IG implied vol has clattered through the lows. Like tech stocks leading the S&P higher, this is credit traders juicing coupons and eating their seed corn.

By contrast S&P vol is certainly historically low but hasn’t seen the steep decline of bond and credit vol.

Where does that leave us? I try to avoid crystal ball stuff but here’s how I see it:

Trump and the US political scene at large: I think he’s done politically--and taken together, the market agrees. Trump is going to be fighting with Congress, Comey and Muller until the GOP majorities get liquidated in the mid-terms. After that his agenda is over, and Democrats will be circling like sharks around a wounded tuna.

Nominal rates and breaks have priced fiscal stimulus at zero, which close to the right price given the way Trump has frittered away his modest political capital.  But the flattening of the curve and unwinding of hikes by the FOMC beyond this year shows markets are somewhat complacent about inflation picking up on its own accord. That being said, don’t hold your breath.  

EUR can continue to benefit from a sea change in capital flows after several years of outflows.

Mexico: We come here today to bury the “NAFTA withdrawal” trade. Again, if Trump could have put together a coalition of domestic manufactuers, unions, and xenophobes to rip up the treaty, he missed his chance. The TIIE curve will invert as growth stagnates and the inflation spike fades, but Banxico will be loathe to cut rates too quickly ahead of the 2018 election. Election risk will become salient around the end of the year when polls should start to become more reliable as it becomes clear who PRI and PAN will run against AMLO, but Trump’s ham-handed political circus will take some of the air out of AMLO’s campaign.

Stocks--Can’t stop the Feeling! Just dance, dance, dance…. Seriously, corporate profits will have to “show me the money” to keep this train rolling, but that hasn’t stopped the market before. This probably would have gotten me fired as an equity manager but I believe value is indicative of future returns--and I can’t see how this chart and current demographic and geopolitical trends end in a reasonable return on risk capital, unless 1929, 1966, and 2000 were really good times to buy stocks.

IG, HG, vol--see above.   Taken together, real money is getting squeezed and is increasing risk by buying tech, high yield, selling vol etc. to keep the ball rolling. The longer it goes on, the smaller the exit door gets.

EUR, DXY, EM--the prior two bullets notwithstanding, I think the flows can keep going--I prefer EM rates over EMFX--but I’ll want the hedges I discussed in Wednesday’s post in my back pocket. The resilient copper chart illustrates global demand is still stronger than it was last year. This is the new paradigm for 2017….the Xi Trade.

[cakesand-puppies]

Hey it’s not english but I managed to find the chinese scans for people who want them. Levi is in there and I’m excited. I did not do these so please thank the people behind these scans.

[acsylia]

Retrace XCI: Juror

[fivekrystalpetals]

Glens, Children of Misfortune and the Baskervilles

[When I say Glens, I am referring all Glens- past and present: Levi, Oswald, Gil and Leo. Hella lot of lore is here that I wanna write about ;-; so I might divide this into different posts let's see. Also fair warning: I might criticize Oswald's actions-past and present- a bit, since I love looking at characters from an unbiased pov. Also, maybe some characters' past actions in order to point to their character development so that too.]

[ Part 1 | Part 2 | Part 3 | Part 4 ]

1] Glen, Jury and the knowledge of the Abyss

Starting off with this panel, although it is passed off for gags, I realized something very important here (and got me to love Leo even more lol droopy eyed jerk yeah!!) (Retrace 103:)

Only after reading Retrace 93 onwards and actually visiting the Sablier from hundred years ago do we get the real, undistorted lore of why Children of Misfortune exist, what exactly is Glen, where the Juries come to play into this whole scheme and so on. But before I elaborate on the above panel, let's go back to go back to these ill-fated panels—the literal start of everything going wrong—Oswald casting Lacie into the Abyss for her sin of being born as a Child of Misfortune. (Retrace 69)

Two things to remember here:

i.) Oswald can't go against the Glen's orders until after the succession ceremony. He is bound to his master, the then Glen, Levi by the oath on his left hand so the only way to break free of it is by cutting off his hand like Gil did. ii.) Immediately after the last chain, the fifth one- Jabberwocky is transferred to his body, Oswald becomes the next Glen.

Now, if I think about it, with Jabberwock having been transferred into his body, Oswald had already become Glen when he was saying these words to Lacie. He was Glen when he cast her into the Abyss. He was Glen, the absolute head of the Baskervilles, whose orders can't be disobeyed by any of his people.

Maybe, this doesn't seem much significant. It didn't, to me, while I was reading this chapter,, because I was still under the impression that 'Glen' was a spirit passed down from one host to another as the Will of the Abyss said here to Vincent (Retrace 39)—

If that were the case, then, well, nothing. Oswald's body would have been taken over by 'Glen' at the Succession Ceremony. Nothing of Oswald's soul would remain,, so, it won't be Oswald, but 'Glen' that's casting Lacie into the Abyss— Lacie who is not the younger sister but a sinner bearing the Eyes of Ill-Omen as far as the spirit of Glen is concerned.

But... later, we get the reveal it's quite not the case. (Retrace 91)

It was because the tale would be boring otherwise.

Everything was a story for the Juries who have been collecting and preserving these for centuries. In their stories, worlds exist where humans never walked the earth at all. Or, stories where the world ended within a century of its beginning. Or even, stories where the world ran identical to this one but decisively different. The main point is the Juries decide whether the tale is interesting enough to continue or to be brought to an end so it can be 'shelved in their library'. There comes the significance of Glen. The Juries are present in every story and use a turning point (here, the Abyss and the Glen) to try and bring the tale to a climax. In this case, they were probably pinning their hopes on Oswald.

Anyway, back to the night of the Succession Ceremony. Glen, now we know is just the title given to the head of the Baskervilles who is a potential candidate for generating a main turning point for the Juries, the reason why they keep an eye of them. It's no spirit hosted in Oswald's body or some such but Oswald himself that cast Lacie into the Abyss.

Why I stress this again is because—Oswald could have stopped her execution. Just like that, he could have given the command: 'As the new Glen, I have decided that we are no longer executing Lacie, does anyone have a problem with it?' Yeah. Just like that. Like, who'd dare challenge his decision? The previous Glen? Levi? A guy left with a broken body and no chain? The rest of the Baskervilles? The same people who obey his every order without a question?

No, the only ones who could and would veto his decision are the Juries. Because they know that only a Child of Misfortune has the power to affect their tales in an unpredictable way since this child was birthed directly by the Abyss (Retrace 91)

However, this aside, I want to point out that Levi, who was the Glen at least three generations before Leo, did not know the actual reason for casting a Child of Misfortune back into the Abyss up until this moment. I am honestly appalled.

So, my first point of this section: i.) severe lack of knowledge about the Abyss/little knowledge is dangerous—

—since even the Glen, who is supposed to be the protector of the Abyss, the origin of all Life, does not know the exact reasons for why things happen as they do; they simply take things for granted. Levi does speculate that the chains are what hold up the world from being swallowed up by the Abyss. Although proven wrong in Retrace 91/92, ig there is some truth to his speculations after all—Jack, believing his words, goes about cancelling the chains and succeeds in sinking Sablier into the Abyss before Oswald and Alice manage to stop him.

The reason for this practice of taking things for granted is my second point. ii.): Every Glen was raised as a valet to the previous Glen.

The Glens are valets before they become the next head; they are practically raised to be good servants, not good leaders. They don't even think of questioning anything their master/Jury tells them.

Truth be told, they are probably programmed from a young age to be subservient to their Master, to kill all of their Master's enemies etc. etc., by either brainwashing, intensive training or torture. See here, Retrace 38:

Think of only your master. Serve only your master.

In fact, as early as Retrace 13, Break questions this extreme devotion of Gilbert's, bordering on obsession.... and wonders if it is not abnormal (although he, as well as Gilbert, think his loyalty is for Oz):

Since Gil had lost all his memories of his past, there was no way for them to know that he had been brainwashed into absolute obedience and this was not natural. (more on this in part 2)

Plus, we don't know what else they have been conditioned to accept as the indisputable truth.

As I said earlier, Oswald was already Glen at the point. Why did he not deliberate if he really wanted to cast Lacie into the Abyss? He had become the sole absolute command there; he had all the powers of the Abyss. Why did he not question the whole point of it? Why did he not even make an attempt to save Lacie?

Well, this is the reason. The Glens were never meant to be someone strong enough to decisively change the story. The Juries needed someone to make wrong decisions so that the 'tale' can be brought to an end. They were waiting for the Glens to mess up. And it was passed down from Glen to Glen, and taken for granted that if they were to become the next head, they had to take in five chains and cast their red-eyed sibling into the Abyss.

In fact, what Levi says about the Children of the Ill-Omen born with the to-be Glen isn't the truth either, just some hearsay (Retrace 69)—

Because you're supposed to properly dispose of what you have created.

I don't think any of this is necessarily true. Because Kevin Legnard (Break), a Child of Misfortune, lived in an age around 10+ years since the Tragedy of Sablier. He served in the Sinclair family since a young age where, yes, a massive tragedy did occur, but it was only in his adulthood and due to political complications, more or less. So really, I wonder if the whole story of Children of Misfortune —the only threat to the Juries—attracting "misfortune" is not one cooked up by the Juries themselves, then accepted as such by generations of Glen? And even spread to the locals because both Lacie and Vince were bullied for their red eyes. Perhaps, so that such children, even if they might not become Baskervilles, will be tortured and eventually killed/take their own lives, and the tales of the Juries will not be interrupted.

This is why the first panel of Leo ordering Levi is so important to me. It's about the choice of your free will (which Oswald never had, he simply went with whatever was asked of him,, more on this in part 3). Leo started to actively fight for what he felt was right and even commands the previous Glen to obey his orders because "I am the current Glen! When I tell you to do something, you shut up and do it, you droopy eyed jerk!"

Oswald could have done this at the Succession Ceremony. I am pretty sure Levi would be more amused than angry at the rebellion against the status quo.

Because, even here, amused by Leo's words, Levi spurs into action only after this exchange: (Retrace 103)

Finally, it's Leo who puts an end to the ostracism of the Children of Ill-Omen—

—and discussed the problem of the Core of the Abyss learning and knowing what it is like to be lonely instead of merely looking upon her as something dangerous and to be untouched by anyone including the Glens.

I don't think he could have brought about such a major change without facing some kind of major uproar from the Juries, yes? In spite of that, Leo (with the rest of the Baskervilles) decided to stand by what he thought was the right thing to do and not condemn his first true follower, Vincent, for no reason but for being born with a red eye.

[ Part 1 | Part 2 | Part 3 | Part 4]

[fivekrystalpetals]

PH MASTERLIST

(aka I wrote a lot of stuff about this series now trying to put all of it in one place so I find Things when I search for it)

CHAPTERS

retrace i | retrace ii | retrace iii | retrace iv | retrace v | retrace vi | retrace vii | retrace viii | retrace ix | retrace x | retrace xi | retrace xii | retrace xiii | retrace xiv | retrace xv | retrace xvi | retrace xvii | retrace xviii | retrace xix | retrace xx | retrace xxi | retrace xxii | retrace xxiii | retrace xxiv | retrace xxv | retrace xxvi | retrace xxvii | retrace xxviii | retrace xxix | retrace xxx | retrace xxxi | retrace xxxii | retrace xxxiii | retrace xxxiv | retrace xxxv | retrace xxxvi | retrace xxxvii | retrace xxxviii | retrace xxxix | retrace xl | retrace xli | retrace xlii | retrace xliii | retrace xliv | retrace xlv | retrace xlvi | retrace xlvii | retrace xlviii | retrace xlix | retrace l | retrace li | retrace lii | retrace liii | retrace liv | retrace lv | retrace lvi | retrace lvii | retrace lviii | retrace lix | retrace lx | retrace lxi | retrace lxii | retrace lxiii | retrace lxiv | retrace lxv | retrace lxvi | retrace lxvii | retrace lxviii | retrace lxix | retrace lxx | retrace lxxi | retrace lxxii | retrace lxxiii | retrace lxxiv | retrace lxxv | retrace lxxvi | retrace lxxvii | retrace lxxviii | retrace lxxix | retrace lxxx | retrace lxxxi | retrace lxxxii | retrace lxxxiii | retrace lxxxiv | retrace lxxxv | retrace lxxxvi | retrace lxxxvii | retrace lxxxviii | retrace lxxxix | retrace xc | retrace xci | retrace xcii | retrace xciii | retrace xciv | retrace xcv | retrace xcvi | retrace xcvii | retrace xcviii | retrace xcix | retrace c | retrace ci | retrace cii | retrace ciii | retrace civ

some Serious posts: may-reads-ph | some Fun Posts: ph musings

MY ANALYSIS POSTS

1.] Lottie | (add: re: real reason why Lottie changed sides in the last arc)

2.] Noise | (add)

3.] Alice(s)

4.] Lacie

5.] Glen, Children of Misfortune, Juries and the Baskervilles | (Part 1 : Glen, Jury and Knowledge of Abyss) | (Part 2 : Choosing a side) | (Part 3 : Oswald and his sin of passivity) | (Part 4 : Oswald and Lacie)

6.] Core of the Abyss and "her" Children of "Misfortune"