#rb for better sample size etc etc

[aquapede]

hi i'm nosy

("breakfast food" isn't limited to american breakfast foods, by the way. anything goes as long as it's a Breakfast Thing👍)

[tanjir0se]

Help me prove a point and rb for sample size pls pls pls. I’m planning another poll that gets further into the exact reasons why fans engage in shipping but this is the main question I am curious about now!

[if-you-love-polls]

I will cry my eyes out and pull my hair until I look like Andrew Tate's ass cheeks but please rb for better sample size I,me and myself (and u ofc lovely moot) deserve to know the answer

[ihhfhonao3]

rb for a bigger sample size please, I need to know so I can better respect people's dnis

as such, if you would prefer that anti shippers that fit into the criteria of the second option not interact with your blog, rb and say so so i can block. or you can block me first whichever you prefer /gen

[digitaldiseas3]

** “emotional” can really refer to any strong emotions, not just strictly negative! i.e. if you feel proud of your middle school self, the circumstances make you sad, any part of it makes you feel overwhelmingly bittersweet/nostalgic/angry/upset, etc. (even if you’re not sure exactly what you’re feeling, if you feel strongly at all, it counts!)

** middle school in the US usually encompasses ages 10-15 or so

feel free to tag why you voted for whichever option!

please rb for sample size, i really wanna know if my experience is common and my polls normally don’t spread much on their own

[mohitmaximize]

Biodiesel Market Industry Overview, Research, Demand, Trends and Analysis 2027.

Biodiesel Market Overview:

Biodiesel Market: Report Scope the latest industry report on the Biodiesel market assesses the opportunities and current market landscape, offering insights and updates on the corresponding segments for the forecasted period of 2021-2027. The report contains a complete analysis of major market dynamics as well as detailed information on the Biodiesel market's structure. This market research report provides unique insights into how the Biodiesel market is expected to grow from 2021 to 2027.

The primary goal of the Biodiesel market research is to provide detailed information on market opportunities that are assisting in the transformation of Biodiesel enterprise. Report provide projected growth rates along with the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for forecasted period to enable readers to better understand the monitoring and assessment of the Biodiesel market, as well as to discover lucrative opportunities in the market.      

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Market Scope:

Maximize Market Research, report provide overall market insights for manufacturers, suppliers, distributors, and investors in the  Biodiesel market. The information and data offered in the report may be used by all stakeholders in the Biodiesel market, as well as industry professionals, researchers, journalists, and business researchers.

Maximize Market Research, report provides a unique research approach to conduct detailed research on the Biodiesel market and make conclusions on the market's future growth factors. Primary and secondary research methodologies are combined in the research approach to assure the authenticity and validity of the conclusions in this report.

The report discusses the Biodiesel market's drivers, restraints, opportunities, and challenges. The research helps to identify the market growth drivers and determining how to utilize these factors as strengths. Restraints can assist readers in identifying traits that are restricting the Biodiesel market, as well as reducing them before they become an issue. This will assist readers in comprehending the aspects that will influence your ability to capitalise on possibilities.

Segmentation:

Get more Report Details : https://www.maximizemarketresearch.com/market-report/global-biodiesel-market/17390/

Key Players:

• Neste corporation

• Renewable Energy group Inc

• Renewable Biofuels Inc

• Total

• Solazyme Inc

• Wilmar International Ltd

• Cargill Incorporated

• Louis Dreyfus Company B.V

• Archer Daniels Midland Company

• Royal Dutch Shell plc.

• Renewable Energy Group, Inc

• Repsol S.A

• RB Fuels

• Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited

• China Petroleum & Chemical Corp (Sinopec Corporation)

The competitive landscape shows the market share of major key competitors, as well as their key development plans and current financial performance over the previous five years. This information is anticipated to help businesses understand their competitors on a global level. Furthermore, the reports feature company profiles, product offers, critical financial data, country-level research, and a synthesis of demand and supply variables that influence market growth.

Regional Analysis:

Geographically, Biodiesel market report is segmented into several key regions are as follows,

Asia-Pacific (Vietnam, China, Malaysia, Japan, Philippines, Korea, Thailand, India, Indonesia, and Australia)

Europe (Turkey, Germany, Russia UK, Italy, France, etc.)

North America (the United States, Mexico, and Canada.)

South America (Brazil etc.)

The Middle East and Africa (GCC Countries and Egypt.)

Furthermore, the study covers market size, growth rate, import and export, as well as country-level analysis, integrating the demand and supply forces of the Biodiesel market in these countries, which are impacting market growth.

COVID-19 Impact Analysis on Biodiesel Market:

COVID-19's global influence on the Biodiesel market was examined in this research. During this crisis, the report examines the Biodiesel market's alternatives, demanding conditions, and difficult possibilities in detail. In terms of funding and market expansion, the paper briefly examines the COVID-19's merits and limitations. The study also contains a set of concepts that should aid readers in developing and planning company strategies.

The report considers consultations to overcome past disruptions and foresees potential ones in order to improve preparation. Businesses can use the frameworks to design their strategic alignments in order to recover from such disruptive trends. Maximize Market Research analysts can also assist readers in breaking down a complex circumstance and bringing resiliency to a situation that is uncertain.

About Us:

Maximize Market Research provides B2B and B2C research on 12000 high growth emerging opportunities & technologies as well as threats to the companies across the Healthcare, Pharmaceuticals, Electronics & Communications, Internet of Things, Food and Beverages, Aerospace and Defence and other manufacturing sectors.

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Cranberry Extract Market Analysis by Key Players & Industry Size 2026

The global Cranberry Extract Market was valued at USD 97.98 million in 2019 and is expected to reach USD 121.59 million by the year 2026, at a CAGR of 3.16%.

The study "Global Cranberry Extract Market" focuses on the establishment and representation of the key impact components for market growth. It offers a constructive response to the acquisition of Cranberry Extract market bits of information in which consumers will clearly consider the business center and thus make substantial decisions for business growth. All the Cranberry Extract data, statistics, figures and data are maintained by well-known investigation apparatuses which incorporate SWOT analysis and Porter's Five Forces investigation. Business hazards and passage challenges make the Cranberry Extract market industry mindful and help choosing further moves.

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Major Key Players Considered in the Market

NOW Foods, Ocean Spray, Pharmavite, Nature's Way, SWISSE, Gaia Herbs, Nature'S Best, The Green Labs, RB, Amway

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Impact of COVID-19 on Cranberry Extract Market

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Segmentation by Product Type:

Liquid

Dried

Powder

Segmentation by Application:

Food And Beverages

Pharmaceuticals

Nutraceuticals

Confectionary

Personal Care

Beauty Products

Others

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North America (U.S., Canada, Mexico) Europe (Germany, U.K., France, Italy, Russia, Spain etc.) Asia-Pacific (China, India, Japan, Southeast Asia etc.) South America (Brazil, Argentina etc.) Middle East & Africa (Saudi Arabia, South Africa etc.)

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[thekwandae-blog]

Plastic Pearl Market is projected to expand at a steady CAGR over the forecast period 2023

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[pmacblog]

Isoparaffin Solvents Market Future Scenario, Growth rate, Market Segmentation, and Industrial Opportunities to 2024

Global Isoparaffin Solvents Market Analysis Report 2019: Acquire Market Research presents the Isoparaffin Solvents Market report that provides a detailed overview of major drivers, restraints, challenges, opportunities, current industry trends and strategies impacting the global market along with estimation and forecast of revenue. The Isoparaffin Solvents Market Study offers elaborated knowledge on the market parts like market size, Key Regions, growth, trends, dominating firms, Major Manufactures. The Isoparaffin Solvents report introduces market competition situation among the vendors, revenue, product & services, latest developments, and business strategies. The Global Isoparaffin Solvents Market research report is the study prepared by analysts, which contain a detailed analysis of drivers, restraints, and opportunities along with their impact on the Isoparaffin Solvents Market growth. Get a Sample PDF Report: https://www.acquiremarketresearch.com/sample-request/154322/ This Report covers the manufacturers’ data, including shipment, price, revenue, gross profit, interview record, business distribution, etc., these data help the consumer know about the competitors better. This report also covers all the regions and countries of the world, which shows a regional development status, including market size, volume, and value, as well as price data. Besides, the report also covers segment data, including type segment, industry segment, channel segment, etc. cover different segment market size, both volume, and value. Also cover different industries clients information, which is very important for the manufacturers. Based on products type, the report describes major products type share of regional market. Products mentioned as follows:  C8, C12, C16, C20, Others Leading vendors in the market are included based on profile, business performance etc. Vendors mentioned as follows:  Shell, ExxonMobil Chemical, Idemitsu, Total, Chevron Phillips Chemical Company, INEOS, Braskem, Luan Group, RB Products Based on Application, the report describes major application share of regional market. Application mentioned as follows:  Paints & Coatings, Metalworking, Agrochemical Formulation, Polymers, Cleaning, Personal Care, Others

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[coopdigitalnewsletter]

12 May 2020: Back to normal? Or a new normal?

Hello, this is the Co-op Digital newsletter - it looks at what's happening in the internet/digital world and how it's relevant to the Co-op, to retail businesses, and most importantly to people, communities and society. Thank you for reading - send ideas and feedback to @rod on Twitter. Please tell a friend about it!

[Image: AlexisOng/Sellabella/ArsTechnica]

Back to normal? Or a new normal?

HelloFresh reports fast rise in first quarter turnover as customers flock to subscribe to meal kits. Online grocer Ocado is now worth more than Sainsbury’s, Morrisons and Marks & Spencer combined after lockdown boost. Online grocery shopping has obviously had a big jump up, but will it fall back to previous levels as shopper fears about the virus recede?

Behind these news stories is a question. Is this the “new normal”, or will we “go back to normal” after the virus? It is tempting to see these changes as temporary. Toilet roll shortages, hunting for online delivery slots, working from home, schooling at home - all temporary. Carnival Cruises bookings for August are going well. Back to normal.

On the other hand, there may not be an “After” the virus at all, if you think of After in terms of getting back to Exactly The Way Things Were Before. This is for a few reasons.

First, having moved some activities online, we might decide that they work well enough. Some companies are going to stay remote, because offices and commuting are expensive. Some shopping is going to stay online. As you’d expect, 9 in 10 UK shoppers say they’ve reduced or stopped visits to shops. But over 40% say they’ll continue shopping as they do now. And 20% say they’ll do more grocery shopping online.

Second, going to a supermarket and many other activities are going to remain socially distanced for a long time. Lockdown infrastructure and bureaucratic process will be with us for years (in the same way that you still see 9/11 infrastructure - shoes, the toiletries bags - if you go to an airport today). It’s interesting to think how that changes the experience of shopping, and eventually its design. Today shopping aisles are taped up or stickered to show distance markers, next year the markings might be painted, and after that the shop itself might be designed differently. 

Do unusual store formats help with social distancing? Separating display from inventory and transaction from handover might make it easy to adapt (like IKEA, Argos or Screwfix). McDonalds already has loads of ordering kiosks and drive throughs. Banks and post offices already maintain distance between staff and public in branches.

Third, the virus is an amplifier that massively accelerates the economic trends that were already happening: shopping was already going online, or at least to parts of town with better and cheaper parking. Fighting that to try get back to Before is too hard: you can’t turn back technology change and shopper behaviour. (This is also why efforts to save the high street have always been doomed if they were just about conserving the idea of the high street of 2010, or 1990. The high street is changing, was already changing. *Preserving* the high street doesn’t work, but *remaking* it can.) You have to do something different.

So you wonder if the bit after the lockdown will eventually be an endless Now, a time of increased change, uncertainty, provisional adaptation. What does it mean for large organisations? More change, faster transformation, a greater need to experiment. How to get closer to the customer while staying further apart?

Online shopping and Tesco’s doomsday exercise

“At the time people said it was a bit ridiculous and extreme” - How Tesco's 'doomsday exercise' helped it cope with the coronavirus. 

Tesco is doing 1.2m online grocery delivery slots weekly now. Comparisons: Waitrose is at 120,000 orders a week, and Morrisons has trebled online slots and 1% of sales now come from Amazon.

NHS contact tracing app

NHSX published some good information about the contract tracing app, how it works, its approach to privacy, and so on. The security behind the NHS contact tracing app is a good read. The app has its own website now, and the source code has been released (which itself must have been a significant political achievement). There are still critics, and the app may be refined or even adopt the decentralised model promoted by Apple and Google. 

Logistics partnerships for good

EDF Energy partners with Boots to deliver essential medicine to most vulnerable: employee volunteers will deliver critical medicines.

And British Gas engineers are helping the Trussell Trust deliver food bank packages.

Animal Crossing

When popular games have scarce goods, there are often ways to “monetise” the hard graft of collecting items and progressing through the game: “I got laid off due to COVID so I'm farming bells in [Animal Crossing]”. Some players are speeding up their clocks to accelerate their collection of bells, but this adds a lot of risk to their deals on the Turnip market, so the newsletter cannot recommend doing that.

World’s first Animal Crossing interior design service launches, offering consultants £40 an hour to perfect in-game homes. Expect to see rival interior design services launch soon (tbh from this household).

Other news

“Bo hasn’t failed”, but Royal Bank of Scotland is closing its new digital challenger bank. It’ll be merged with RBS’s app-only small biz bank Mettle.

Privacy-first search engine DuckDuckGo now does about 63m searches daily, which is about 1% of Google’s traffic.

Did you know that Amazon has a video chat product like Zoom, Hangouts and all the others? It’s called Chime. The pricing seems aligned with the AWS philosophy: pay as you go, increasing complexity once you start looking deeper. It mostly works, and had no adverts for office equipment delivered the next day (sample size - one call).

Co-op Digital news

“Trying to read in motion or after a long tiring day – accessibility is surprisingly relevant to everyone and it is about time we engrain it in our DNA.” - How we’re making accessibility more relatable.

Why an up-to-date service map is essential when teams change direction.

Federation House’s online events:

Free of charge 

Introduction to QGIS – Webinar – 12 May – 18.30 

NW Drupal User Group – Monthly Meet Up – 12 May – 19.00 

Online Jam Startup Bootcamp – Webinar – 16 May – 11.00 

Introduction to UK Data Service – Webinar – 19 May – 18.30 

Social Impact Day 2020 – Webinar – 20 May – 12.30 

Open Data Manchester – Open Data Surgeries – Various dates/times in May & June 

Amity Mental Spa Session – 1-2-1 Mental Health Chat – Various dates/times in May – Aug 

Paid for 

Understanding Disconnection & Polarisation - Webinar 1 of 3 - 13 May – 13.00  

JCI Manchester – How to do a Ted Talk, In conversation with Vikas Shah MBE – 14 May – 19.00 

The Perils of Perception – Webinar 2 of 3 – 20 May – 13.00 

AGM & Speedmating - WI Manchester – 26 May – 19.15 

An ethnographic case study on linking with left behind communities - Webinar 3 of 3 – 27 May – 13.00 

Cariad Yoga – Online Yoga – Various Dates & Times in May & June 

Thank you for reading

Thank you, beloved readers and contributors. Please continue to send ideas, questions, corrections, improvements, etc to the newsletter’s typist @rod on Twitter. If you have enjoyed reading, please tell a friend!

If you want to find out more about Co-op Digital, follow us @CoopDigital on Twitter and read the Co-op Digital Blog. Previous newsletters.

[junker-town]

I’m very high on 2017 Auburn’s chances. This is terrifying.

The Tigers always surprise everyone, whether in ways good or bad. Here’s why 2017 shows promise.

College football teams tend to end up defined by how they start and how they finish. The first impression lasts for longer into the autumn than it should, and the last impression lasts all offseason.

In 2014, for instance, it took about two months of incredible play for us to forget about Ohio State’s loss to Virginia Tech and take the Buckeyes seriously. But thanks to the way they finished, they were a unanimous preseason No. 1 heading into 2015.

In 2016, we spent the first two months wondering what was wrong with Clemson as the defending national runners-up flirted with losses before suffering one to Pitt. Then the Tigers relaxed and played nearly perfect football on their way to a title.

This gives us a pretty conflicting view of Auburn heading into 2017.

The Tigers began 2016 by nearly upsetting Clemson in the most confusing way possible. The Auburn defense was brilliant in holding the eventual champ to 19 points, but Malzahn played just about every player in uniform behind center at one point or another, gaining just 262 yards and revealing that he had no confidence in any quarterback. Two weeks later, they fell to 1-2 after averaging 4.5 yards per play against Texas A&M at home.

Auburn finished 2016 in similar fashion. They were held under 200 yards by Georgia (in a 13-7 loss) and Alabama (30-12) and took more medicine in a 35-19 Sugar Bowl loss to Oklahoma.

Starting 1-2 and finishing 1-3 is not the best way to make an impression.

But in between those two spells, Auburn was damn near perfect.

From a September 24 upset of LSU to a November 5 win over Vanderbilt, Auburn went 6-0. Quarterback Sean White caught fire, and the Tigers averaged 7 yards per play and 513 yards per game; their opponents averaged 4.8 and 334, respectively. They beat LSU in a slog and took down Ole Miss in a shootout. They played one of 2016’s best games, a 56-3 disintegration of Arkansas.

Auburn was the month of October’s best team in the country. But then White injured his shoulder against Ole Miss. He played well against the Rebels and Vandy, but he went 6-for-20 against Georgia and missed the final two games of the regular season. He returned against OU, threw 10 passes, and broke his forearm.

It’s as if losing your starting quarterback can jam a stick into your spokes.

After a three-act season, Auburn finished 8-5. That makes it seem similar to 2014 (8-5) and 2015 (7-6), two seasons that helped Malzahn onto the hot seat. But if you watched this team in between the first and last impressions, you saw a team capable of massive heights with a healthy quarterback.

Now, in theory, the Tigers have two healthy QBs. White is back after suffering four injuries in barely more than a calendar year. He’s the second-stringer to Baylor transfer Jarrett Stidham.

Stidham had his own pre-injury supernova in Waco. As a true freshman in 2015, after Seth Russell went down, Stidham completed 51 of 81 passes for 934 yards, six touchdowns, and two interceptions against Kansas State, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State. He got his passer rating up to 199.0 for the year (and showed some wheels against OSU), then suffered his own season-ending injury.

So now, Auburn heads in with two starter-caliber QBs, a trio of running backs that rivals any in the RB-heavy SEC, a senior-heavy offensive line, and a defense with enough returning pieces and a high enough ceiling to match last year’s surprising top-10 performance. And with the Tigers ranked just 13th in the preseason AP poll, I find myself considering them almost ... underrated. I didn’t know that was possible, but here we are.

There are questions. The receiving corps has an infinite ceiling but is mostly unproven. The defensive line, the anchor of last year’s defense, lost just enough to make you worry. Plus, there’s the matter of 2014 and 2015 — the Tigers started each season sixth in the country and finished 22nd and unranked, respectively.

This is a program that tends to be at its best when it’s sneaking up on you, and even if I think they’re slightly underrated, top-15 teams don’t sneak.

2016 in review

2016 Auburn statistical profile.

The Auburn defense had a few ups and downs but established a steady level overall. The offense was all over the map. As went White, so went Auburn.

First 4 games (2-2): Avg. points per game: 24.5 | Avg. yards per play: 5.5 | Avg. offensive percentile performance: 65% | White passer rating: 138.6

Next 5 games (5-0): Avg. points per game: 43.0 | Avg. yards per play: 7.4 | Avg. offensive percentile performance: 78% | White passer rating: 185.3

Last 4 games (1-3): Avg. points per game: 23.3 | Avg. yards per play: 5.1 | Avg. offensive percentile performance: 34% | White passer rating: 44.0

Granted, that “last four” sample is unfair, since he missed two games and parts of the other two. But with backup Jeremy Johnson ineffective and John Franklin III a run-first, run-second guy (he played in all 13 games but threw just 26 passes), the Auburn passing game was tied to White, for better or worse. Now it’s tied to Stidham.

Offense

Full advanced stats glossary.

It’s hard to glean much from full-season averages, knowing about the three-act process, but in the chart above, we see intent. This was a Malzahn offense: avoid negative plays, create third-and-manageable situations, and create big plays with the ground game. While the look of a Malzahn attack has changed depending on the talent at hand, that has been the underlying philosophy.

What made things a little bit different in 2016 was the way the passing game operated. And, of course, that changed multiple times during the year.

When White was clicking, completing 73 percent of his passes and averaging nearly 15 yards per completion, the Tigers couldn’t be stopped. But before Malzahn handed play-calling to now-former coordinator Rhett Lashlee (now with UConn), this was a mostly horizontal passing game. Late in the year, it was the same. It was also pretty easy to defend.

So the quest is easy to figure out: get vertical. And in Stidham, AU might have one of the most exciting vertical QBs in the country. He completed 57 percent of passes over 20 yards in 2015, and new coordinator Chip Lindsay was in charge of the most explosive offense in the country (first in IsoPPP) at Southern Miss in 2015.

Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Jarrett Stidham

Stidham also has a trio of small-sample all-stars at his disposal. Four-star sophomores Darius Slayton, Kyle Davis, and Nate Craig-Myers combined to only catch 31 passes last year, but they averaged 19.7 yards per catch with a 53 percent success rate. Slayton caught a 46-yarder from Stidham in the spring game, and Craig-Myers caught a 50-yarder. It’s a lot to ask sophomores, but these three have the recruiting profile to back it up and have proven everything they’ve been asked to prove so far.

With a vertical threat, Auburn has basically everything else it needs.

Ryan Davis, Eli Stove, and Will Hastings are solid possession guys (they combined for a 71 percent catch rate).

The running back corps comes in all shapes and sizes: big (235-pound junior Kamryn Pettway), medium (212-pound junior Kerryon Johnson), and small (182-pound sophomore Kam Martin). It’s got competition, too, with 225-pound redshirt freshman Malik Miller and four-star freshman Devan Barrett looking for snaps.

The line returns three seniors who have combined for 60 career starts (including all-conference guard Braden Smith) and adds Florida State transfer Wilson Bell (who started 18 games for the Noles) and Jacksonville State transfer Casey Dunn, a two-time FCS All-American. There are eight four and five-star freshmen, redshirt freshmen, and sophomores waiting their turn.

Pettway deserves way more than a bullet point. As important as the vertical passing game is, when Auburn was clicking in October, Pettway was playing like an All-American. Against MSU, Arkansas, Ole Miss, and Vanderbilt, he rushed 121 times for 770 yards (6.4 per carry) and six touchdowns.

Of course, the tires on this semi truck blew out a couple of times; Pettway missed three contests with injury and finished averaging just 3.3 yards per carry against Alabama and Oklahoma.

Johnson had his moments, but they mostly came in blowouts — he averaged 6.3 yards per carry against Arkansas State, ULM, and Alabama A&M and 4.2 against everybody else. Martin did most of his damage against G5 teams as well. Only Pettway really proved he could maul a good defense.

If Pettway’s healthy, with Stidham next to him in the backfield, Slayton/Davis/Craig-Myers roaming deep, and a nasty, experienced line in front of him ... goodness, this offense could be terrifying. Having White, Johnson, etc., on the second string is a heck of a luxury, too.

Shanna Lockwood-USA TODAY Sports

Kamryn Pettway

Defense

Every situation is different. Every new job is an opportunity for success or failure. This is my seventh year of writing these previews, and I’ve been wrong plenty of times when it comes to new hires.

Still, like everyone else, I was confident in my unimpressed reaction to Malzahn’s hire of Kevin Steele in 2016.

In his last two years as a coordinator, Steele's units have crumpled. In 2011 at Clemson, his Tiger defense plummeted from sixth in Def. S&P+ to 65th; in 2015 at LSU, the Tigers fell from ninth to 27th.

This ignores mountains of context, obviously. Still, it's hard to be inspired by Malzahn's latest coordinator change. He replaced Ellis Johnson with former Florida head coach Will Muschamp last fall, then took Steele from LSU when Muschamp took the South Carolina head coaching job. (LSU didn't appear to put up a ton of fight.)

Then Steele killed it.

Def. S&P+: from 29th in 2015 to ninth in 2016

Success Rate: from 97th to 33rd

Rushing S&P+: from 49th to 14th

Standard Downs S&P+: from 30th to 10th

Points per scoring opportunity: from 28th to second

Auburn regressed a bit on passing downs, but if you had to choose one, you’d prefer to be good on standard downs — even the worst passing-downs defense is better than all but the best standard-downs defenses.

Improvement up front was vital; looking to 2017, then, that creates a blurry picture.

On one hand, blue-chip sophomore end Marlon Davidson returns, as do junior Jeff Holland and a potentially dynamic foursome of tackles in juniors Dontavious Russell and Andrew Williams and sophomores Derrick Brown and Byron Cowart.

On the other hand, end Carl Lawson (13.5 TFLs) and tackles Montravious Adams, Devaroe Lawrence, and Maurice Swain Jr. (combined: 13 TFLs) are all gone.

The upside here is obvious, but depth has taken a serious hit. There is only one senior on the line (end Paul James III), and a poorly placed injury or two could create a two-deep loaded with freshmen and sophomores. Even when you recruit well, inexperience means a hard cap.

Shanna Lockwood-USA TODAY Sports

Deshaun Davis

If the line holds, though — and you never know in advance how much iffy depth will hurt you — the back seven could be dynamite. Junior Deshaun Davis (seven non-sack TFLs) is one of the best run-stuffing linebackers in a conference full of them, and three other LBs (Tre’ Williams, Darrell Williams, Motavious Atkinson) all made plays at times.

The secondary does have to replace nickel back Johnathan Ford and corner Joshua Holsey (combined: 6.5 TFLs, 20 passes defensed), and that’s a little scary, considering the pass defense wasn’t nearly as disruptive as the run defense. But the experience levels are high enough to be optimistic. Senior safeties Tray Matthews and Stephen Roberts are back, as are junior cornerback Carlton Davis (two TFLs, 10 passes defensed) and sophomore Javaris Davis, who basically posted a nickel back’s stat line from the corner position last year (six TFLs, nine passes defensed).

Throw in another veteran (senior safety Nick Ruffin), a pair of exciting sophomore safeties (Daniel Thomas, Jeremiah Dinson), and a high-profile transfer (former Ohio State corner Jamel Dean), and you’ve got reason for excitement. I just listed a lot more safeties than corners, but if Dean sticks on the first string and allows Javaris Davis to thrive at nickel, this secondary has what it needs.

John Reed-USA TODAY Sports

Javaris Davis

Special Teams

Despite drastic inconsistency in kick returns, special teams were a massive net plus for Auburn.

Daniel Carlson was asked to kick too many field goals (32 in all!) but made 28 of them, plus all of his PATs. He was also third in the country with a 79 percent touchback rate on kickoffs. He was second in kickoff efficiency and third in FG efficiency. And despite it feeling like he’s been on the Plains since about 2003, he still has another year of eligibility remaining. And his little brother Anders is on board to succeed him when he finally leaves after 2017.

There are questions at punter and in the return game, but Carlson’s presence alone should guarantee a top-30 Special Teams S&P+ ranking.

2017 outlook

2017 Schedule & Projection Factors

Date Opponent Proj. S&P+ Rk Proj. Margin Win Probability 2-Sep Georgia Southern 98 31.4 97% 9-Sep at Clemson 6 -4.8 39% 16-Sep Mercer NR 42.1 99% 23-Sep at Missouri 53 13.6 78% 30-Sep Mississippi State 30 13.8 79% 7-Oct Ole Miss 26 11.6 75% 14-Oct at LSU 4 -5.8 37% 21-Oct at Arkansas 32 8.9 70% 4-Nov at Texas A&M 19 4.1 59% 11-Nov Georgia 20 9.1 70% 18-Nov UL-Monroe 121 37.8 99% 25-Nov Alabama 1 -11.6 25%

Projected S&P+ Rk 9 Proj. Off. / Def. Rk 18 / 12 Projected wins 8.3 Five-Year S&P+ Rk 13.9 (14) 2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk 9 / 7 2016 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin* 3 / 10.6 2016 TO Luck/Game -2.9 Returning Production (Off. / Def.) 66% (72%, 60%) 2016 Second-order wins (difference) 7.9 (0.1)

Auburn has the anti-social tendency of defying whatever expectations you set, good or bad. That alone makes me nervous about how good I’m feeling about this team.

I know I’m putting a lot of expectation on sophomore receivers, and the defensive line depth appears tenuous. But few backfields have the upside of a Stidham-Pettway combination, I like the offensive line a lot, and the backbone of this defense — Russell, Andrew Williams, Davis, Tre’ Williams, Matthews, Roberts — is outstanding. Malzahn has recruited at a top-10 level and just added a blue-chip quarterback. There is so much to like here.

The schedule will tamp down expectations a bit. AU plays at Clemson in September, at LSU (as the first of a three-game road stretch) in October, and finishes with an Alabama that is probably as good as ever. Despite a top-10 S&P+ projection, the Tigers are only projected to win about eight games. Such is life when you live in the SEC West and schedule the defending national champ in non-con play.

I’m curious what the reaction will be if the Tigers finish with eight or nine wins while playing top-10-caliber ball. At some point, Malzahn needs to make another 2013-level run — or, more realistically for 2017, at least get back to 10 wins — but with high points higher than those of 2016, Malzahn should be able to create buzz. And with so few senior difference-makers outside of the offensive line, the Tigers could be in line to make that crazy run a year from now.

Team preview stats

All power conference preview data to date.

[cover32-yahoopartner-blog]

Patriots Fantasy Focus: Mike Gillislee, the ultimate wildcard

For the most part, opinions on fantasy players are easily formed. You can easily make a case for or against a player based on a variety of factors: past production, age, health, your personal opinion, etc. There will always be those players you know you will have multiple shares of come fantasy season and players that won’t end up on any of your teams.

And then, there are those fantasy wildcards. Fantasy wildcards are those players you go back-and-forth on all summer. You can make a strong case for them, as well as a strong case against them. Fantasy wildcards are players that may contain significant upside but also carry a decent amount of risk and/or uncertainty. Newly acquired Patriots RB Mike Gillislee fits the fantasy wildcard description to a T.

Mike Gillislee Rushing & Receiving 2016 Game Game Rush Rush Rush Rush Rush Rush Rush Rece Rece Rece Rece Year Age Tm No. G GS Rush Yds TD Lng Y/A Y/G A/G Tgt Rec Yds TD AV 2013 23 MIA 23 3 0 6 21 0 6 3.5 7.0 2.0 0 2015 25 BUF 35 5 1 47 267 3 60 5.7 53.4 9.4 7 6 29 0 2 2016 26 BUF 35 15 1 101 577 8 44 5.7 38.5 6.7 11 9 50 1 4

Care Care 23 2 154 865 11 60 5.6 37.6 6.7 18 15 79 1 6 2 yr 2 yr BUF 20 2 148 844 11 60 5.7 42.2 7.4 18 15 79 1 6 1 yr 1 yr MIA 3 0 6 21 0 6 3.5 7.0 2.0 0

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table

The former Buffalo Bills running back is only 26 years old. He’s coming off a career season in which he rushed for eight touchdowns (nine total) as a backup to LeSean McCoy. Together they headlined a backfield that led the NFL in virtually every rushing category including rushing attempts, rushing yards, touchdowns, yards per attempt, and yards per game. It was that success that made Gillislee one of the top waiver pickups of the year. He was a ‘must own’ handcuff and solid flex play even WITH McCoy playing.

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2007 Patriots: Part Seven; Did the draft cost them a title?

Now fresh of the signing of a 2yr/$6.4 million contract with the New England Patriots, Gillislee is projected to be the starting RB on arguably the most dynamic offense in football. It is also an offense that lost LeGarrette Blount in the offseason, leaving his 18 rushing touchdowns up for grabs.

Mike Gillislee Fantasy Production Year Age G FantPos FantPt VBD PosRank OvRank 2013 23 3 RB 2 141 2015 25 5 RB 46 70 2016 26 15 RB 117 26

165

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table

On paper Gillislee leading a New England backfield looks promising. With his average draft position somewhere between the fifth and seventh round, so his value could be decent depending on where you stand. Let’s take a look at the five running backs that are going ahead of him and the five running backs going behind him based on ADP (12 team PPR)

Ahead:

• Dalvin Cook

• LeGarrette Blount

• Danny Woodhead

• Tevin Coleman

• Bilal Powell

Behind:

• Eddie Lacy

• Paul Perkins

• Derrick Henry

• Mark Ingram

Out of the five running backs going ahead of him, only one is a safe bet to be the starter week one and that is Blount. Coleman, Woodhead, and Powell are all technically backups even though they all have value in PPR leagues. Although Cook might start at some point this season, he’s still a rookie. Latavius Murray figures to split carries with him to begin the year.

Out of the five running backs going behind him, only one of them is both a starter AND someone who contains upside. For example, Henry contains upside but he’s still the backup to Demarco Murray and oh, by the way, Murray was third in the NFL last year in rushing attempts. So although Henry does have upside, he’s still a backup.

Ingram and Lacy are both in an uncertain, time-share situation in their respective backfields. I think it is safe to say that the best days for both are behind them. This leaves Paul Perkins as really the only one in the group that is going to be the starter Week 1 AND has considerable upside entering his sophomore campaign.

We always talk about finding the perfect balance of consistency and upside. Very rarely do you find a player that embodies both.rex burkhead When you do, those are the players you build your team around. Gillislee certainly has upside and could prove to be consistent but without playing a single snap in a Patriot’s uniform, the jury is still out. Would you take Gillislee in the sixth round which is where his ADP is? If you love him, would you be willing to reach and grab him in the fifth? Let’s make the case for and against Mike Gillislee.

The Case For

He’s the starter yes, sometimes you do not have to overthink things. He was the backup last year and got nine total touchdowns. This season he has the inside track to be the starting running back. This is probably the number one point that needs to be made in any argument FOR Gillislee.

Quantity, Quantity, Quantity

The 2016 New England Patriots ranked third in the NFL in rushing attempts, and Blount had 299 carries (second in the NFL). Gillislee only had 100 carries last season. This season he is almost a lock to double his carries from a year ago if he stays healthy.

It’s All About The Offense

The New England Patriots offense is a significantly better offense than the Buffalo Bills. New England was in the top five last year in several key categories including total yards, total first downs and third down percentage. Buffalo, by comparison, ranked outside the top 15 in all except third down percentage (13th). So, although Buffalo was statistically the best rushing team last year, they were nowhere near the overall offense that New England was. Which is easier to duplicate: Buffalo having another dominant rushing year or New England being a top 5 offense? We both know the answer to that one.

Another impressive stat about New England’s offense in 2016, was they started each drive ahead by an average of 7.2 points! Let’s not forget, this was without Brady for the first four games, Malcolm Mitchell in his rookie season, no Brandin Cooks and Blount averaging 3.9 yards per carry. Which leads me to…

Quality, Quality, Quality

Blount averaged 3.9 yards on 299 carries. Gilislee averaged 5.7 yards per carry with only 100 carries. So although the sample size was a lot smaller for Gillislee, it shows you the quality of runner he is and the upside he has.

The Case Against

Competition

Even with the loss of Blount, the New England Patriots backfield remains crowded. With the addition of Rex Burkhead and the return of both Dion Lewis and James White, there are still a lot of mouths to feed. There is no guarantee that all of Blount’s carries from a year ago will go to Gilleslee. With so many moving parts, it isn’t 100 percent clear at the moment how the pie will be divvied up.

Small Sample Size

Mike Gillislee has been in the NFL for three years but has only been a backup. He has only appeared in over 10 games once (last year). He was incredibly efficient with the touches he got last season. However, will he be able to continue to produce at that same level with a bigger role in the offense and more carries? We have seen other backup running backs shine in those roles only to be exposed when given a larger role as the starter. Christine Michael is a great example of this.

Lack of PPR Value

One thing that appears to limit Gillislee’s upside is his restrictions in the passing game. In 15 games last season, he tallied nine receptions. With James White and Rex Burkhead most likely filling the third down role and serving as the primary pass-catchers out of the backfield, where does that leave Gillislee? It is possible that he could surprise people and contribute in that area as well. But if he doesn’t he might be too reliant on touchdowns in order to be viable in PPR formats.

– Jeff Carrier is a Staff Writer for cover32/Patriots and covers the New England Patriots. Like and follow on Follow @nfltalkingheads Follow @cover32_NE and Facebook.

  The post Patriots Fantasy Focus: Mike Gillislee, the ultimate wildcard appeared first on Cover32.

[yahoo-shutdown-corner-blog]

NFL draft profile: No. 4 — Ohio State CB Marshon Lattimore, the draft's best cover man if healthy

Shutdown Corner is counting down the top 50 prospects in the 2017 NFL draft with a scouting report, quotes from NFL evaluators and a projection where they might be drafted.

4. Ohio State CB Marshon Lattimore 6-foot, 193 pounds

Key stat: Intercepted four passes with 13 passes defended in 2016, his one year of starting at OSU.

Ohio State CB Marshon Lattimore is Shutdown Corner’s best shutdown corner in the 2017 NFL draft. (AP)

The skinny: Decorated Ohio-bred prep prospect at Division-II powerhouse Glenville, coached by Ted Ginn Sr., and a U.S. Army All-American. Lattimore chose Ohio State and might have been poised to contribute immediately as a true freshman but required hamstring surgery. Spent 2014 as a redshirt and looked to earn a starting role as a redshirt freshman in 2015. But once more, the hamstring caused him problems and it limited him to seven of the first eight games that season in a reserve role before he was shut down for the season. Finally cracked the starting lineup in 2016 and made the most of it, earning first-team All-Big Ten mention and continuing on with one of the deepest pools of secondary talent at any program in the country.

Lattimore declared for the 2017 NFL draft following his redshirt sophomore season. Opted to compete in only select drills at the NFL scouting combine — the 40-yard dash (4.36 seconds), vertical jump (38.5 inches) and broad jump (132 inches). Lattimore will turn 21 years old a few weeks after the draft.

Best-suited destination: Evaluators believe Lattimore has enough versatility and moldable talent to project to almost any type of scheme, but he likely would be more valuable — right away anyway — as a man corner. Among the teams that could be especially interested in Lattimore’s services include the Tennessee Titans, Chicago Bears, New York Jets, Arizona Cardinals, Pittsburgh Steelers, Cincinnati Bengals, Buffalo Bills, Philadelphia Eagles, Detroit Lions, New England Patriots, Washington Redskins, Los Angeles Rams and Green Bay Packers.

Upside: Will be a 21-year-old rookie. Upside as a playmaker is phenomenal. Elite ball skills for a one-year starter. Transitions very quickly and has a knack for getting hand in to break up the pass. Runs routes for receivers. Fluid, athletic and instinctive. Terrific athletic explosiveness, as seen by his combine jumping numbers as well as an exceptional 40 time (and a 1.50-second 10-yard split, which ranks as elite burst). Glides on the field and has an extra gear when needed.

Gets good press off the line with the fastest hands in the draft. Handles in-breaking routes nicely. Doesn’t let receivers cross his face easily. Allowed only one TD in man coverage this season. One team charted Lattimore as having allowed 17 catches on 36 passes against him this season, with 13 passes defended. Smells blood in the water on underthrown or poorly thrown passes. Strikes like a cobra and doesn’t miss what few chances he gets. Excellent makeup speed — watch as Lattimore sees the pass, catches up to the Oklahoma receiver and steps in front of him for the textbook INT:

Ohio State’s Marshon Lattimore rarely gets burned because of his makeup speed. (Draftbreakdown.com)

Very clean tackler. Has aggressive mentality when taking down ballcarriers. Not afraid to mix it up with receivers.

Downside: Injuries a concern. Chronic hamstring issues plagued him at OSU, forced him to redshirt as a freshman following surgery to repair problem that dated back to high school. Forced to skip testing at combine because of left shoulder and hip flexor. Has required extra care (changes in diet, exercise regimen, practice routine, etc.) to manage hamstring and might need to require extra attention from NFL team’s medical staff to keep healthy. Narrow, lean frame with slightly below-average arm length. And he’s in the bottom 30th percentile at his position for hand size (8 7/8 inches). Might need a little more upper body work to handle press against big, physical receivers.

Occasionally let speedy receivers slip behind him. Might need quality safety help early on in his career. Wasn’t routinely challenged in his one year of starting — faced fewer than three passes thrown at him per game. Hasn’t developed and honed his zone technique fully yet. More of a follow-the-receiver cover man (although he has shown the ability to look through his man to the quarterback). Looked a little lax in off-man coverage some snaps. Consistency of technique is something his DB coach might have to stress early in Lattimore’s career. Has typically played the boundary and might not be ready for NFL nickel duty inside right away. Played predominantly on the right side in college.

Scouting hot take: “I’ve struggled with a few of the one-year [starters]. Not him though. Very clean sheet. A few things here or there, but nothing glaring that makes you think he can’t be very, very good. I am a tough grader, but I liked it. Even with the small sample size. He’s better than [New York Giants 2016 first-round pick Eli] Apple.” — NFC assistant general manager

Player comp: One scout we respect compared Lattimore to A.J. Bouye, who just cashed in with a major free-agency deal. “Only more explosive an athlete,” he said. Another we spoke with compared Lattimore to Janoris Jenkins for his aggressiveness and confidence.

Expected draft range: Top-10 pick

Previous profiles

Nos. 51-100: Here’s who just missed the cut No. 50: Indiana OG-C Dan Feeney No. 49: Iowa DB Desmond King No. 48: Vanderbilt LB Zach Cunningham No. 47: Wisconsin pass rusher T.J. Watt No. 46. Alabama pass rusher Tim Williams No. 45. Washington CB Sidney Jones No. 44. Alabama LB Ryan Anderson No. 43. Ohio State WR-RB Curtis Samuel No. 42. Florida DT Caleb Brantley No. 41. Connecticut DB Obi Melifonwu No. 40. USC CB-KR Adoree’ Jackson No. 39. Texas Tech QB Patrick Mahomes No. 38. Michigan State DL Malik McDowell No. 37: Ole Miss TE Evan Engram No. 36: Florida LB Jarrad Davis No. 35: Washington S Budda Baker No. 34: Oklahoma RB Joe Mixon No. 33: Alabama CB Marlon Humphrey No. 32: Florida CB Quincy Wilson No. 31: Tennessee RB Alvin Kamara No. 30: Michigan DB-RS Jabrill Peppers No. 29: Alabama OT Cam Robinson No. 28: Notre Dame QB DeShone Kizer No. 27: LSU CB Tre’Davious White No. 26: Missouri DE Charles Harris No. 25: UCLA pass rusher Takkarist McKinley No. 24: Michigan DE Taco Charlton No. 23: Wisconsin OT Ryan Ramczyk No. 22: Utah OT Garett Bolles No. 21: Western Kentucky OG-C Forrest Lamp No. 20: Florida State RB Dalvin Cook No. 19: Miami (Fla.) TE David Njoku No. 18: Tennessee DE Derek Barnett No. 17: Clemson QB Deshaun Watson No. 16: North Carolina QB Mitchell Trubisky No. 15: Washington WR John Ross No. 14: Clemson WR Mike Williams No. 13: Western Michigan WR Corey Davis No. 12: Temple LB Haason Reddick No. 11: Ohio State CB Gareon Conley No. 10: Alabama TE O.J. Howard No. 9: Stanford RB-WR-RS Christian McCaffrey No. 8: Alabama LB Reuben Foster No. 7: Ohio State S Malik Hooker No. 6: Alabama DL Jonathan Allen No. 5: LSU S Jamal Adams

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Eric Edholm is a writer for Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at edholm@yahoo-inc.com or follow him on Twitter!

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[junker-town]

It’s a reset year for UNC football. How far will Larry Fedora’s Heels fall?

Now that North Carolina’s production finally makes sense, let’s find out what the program’s made of.

Chapel Hill is a lovely place, and it houses a lovely campus. UNC has an enrollment in the neighborhood of 30,000. It’s spacious but not too spaced out, it’s got plenty of trees and pretty, old buildings, and the athletics facilities are mostly baked into the cake.

The old basketball arena is on the main artery road on campus (the Dean Dome is separated but isn’t too far away), and the football stadium is in the middle of things. Downtown is nearby, and it’s got drinking (cheap and fancy) and eating (ditto) options. From the dorms, you can access virtually all of this by foot.

This is a semi-idyllic, normal college town, and for a couple of years now, it has had a normal football team for once.

Over Fedora’s five seasons, he has averaged a recruiting class ranking of 29.8 (per the 247Sports Composite), produced three S&P+ top-30 performances, and averaged eight wins per year. You could note that the other two teams were pretty far outside of the top 30, or that he should be doing a hair better in recruiting, but recruiting and performance are finally in line with each other.

For most of the 2000s, that hadn’t been the case. The Tar Heels were the poster boys for what could be. In John Bunting’s first season, they beat No. 6 Florida State and No. 13 Clemson by a combined 79-12. They also lost to Wake Forest and Maryland and finished 8-5. They beat No. 4 Miami in 2004 but finished 6-6. They beat ranked Virginia and BC teams in 2005 but finished 5-6.

When Butch Davis took over, he demonstrated the program’s ceiling by signing a top-10 class in 2007 and top-20 classes in 2009 and 2011. He went 8-5 for three straight years, and he was dismissed in the summer of 2011 as part of UNC’s ongoing effort to fight academic misconduct and improper benefits allegations.

Big recruits, big wins, and no top-15 finishes from 1998 to 2014. That was UNC’s reality. And now it’s something far more ... reality-based.

Fedora’s classes are almost identical from year to year, and from an S&P+ standpoint (presented in the format of adjusted points per game) his three good teams (2013, 2015, and 2016) have been within 0.4 points of each other: plus-11.1, plus-10.7, and plus-11.1. This is almost too normal.

How does Fedora raise the bar now? I’m not sure, but I know he probably won’t do so in 2017. Like 2014, when UNC slipped to 6-7 and 71st in S&P+ before surging, Fedora’s Heels have a lot to replace, particularly on offense: a top-10 draft choice at QB, two running backs who combined for 1,500 yards, five of the top six receiving targets, and two all-conference offensive linemen. A scary-in-a-good-way special teams unit is also rebuilding. The defense is experienced but lost its coordinator.

UNC is projected to fall from 21st to 38th in S&P+. The Heels’ schedule is kind, for an ACC slate — no Clemson or Florida State, and Louisville, Miami, and Notre Dame at home — and eight of 12 games are projected to finish within one possession, which means a few exciting new pieces could make the difference between a four- or nine-win season. The former might lead us to wonder about Fedora’s staying power; the latter might make UNC the 2018 ACC Coastal favorite.

2016 in review

2016 UNC statistical profile.

I got yelled at by UNC fans during the Heels’ 11-win 2015. UNC ranked a mere 28th in S&P+. It was easy to explain why — they lost to both of the S&P+ top-25 teams they faced (Clemson and Baylor), barely got by teams ranked 40th and 68th, and lost to a South Carolina that ended up in the 80s.

When you’re winning, it feels like you should rank high no matter what, but things normalized in 2016. The Heels exceeded expectations from an S&P+ standpoint (they were projected 27th and finished 21st) but finished with a win total (eight) right where it was projected to be. The schedule went from featuring two top-30 teams to six; that’ll cost you a few wins.

That’s not to say the season went according to plan. (UNC hasn’t totally kicked the UNC habit, I guess.) The Heels went 3-3 against those top-30 teams, beating No. 6 Florida State and No. 14 Miami on the road and knocking off No. 20 Pitt at home. If you’re capable of that, you probably shouldn’t also lose to a mediocre Georgia and both chief rivals (28-27 to Duke, 28-21 to NC State). The record was less a product of the schedule and more a product of when they showed up.

UNC in eight wins: Avg. percentile performance: 83% (~top 20) | Avg. score: UNC 40, Opp 22 | Avg. yards per play: UNC 7.5, Opp 5.5 (plus-2.0)

UNC in five losses: Avg. percentile performance: 47% (~top 70) | Avg. score: Opp 30, UNC 20 | Avg. yards per play: Opp 5.2, UNC 5.2 (plus-0.0)

The defense was roughly the same, but the offense fluctuated. The Heels laid an egg in a rainstorm against Virginia Tech, but even in the other games, there was a clear difference between Good UNC and Bad UNC.

Maybe it’s a good sign that the defense was more stable, as the defense will far more closely resemble last year’s unit than the offense will.

Offense

Full advanced stats glossary.

Mitch Trubisky was only the starting quarterback for one year at UNC, but he made the most of it. He completed 68 percent of his passes and threw for nearly 3,800 yards with 30 touchdowns to only six interceptions; after completing 66 percent of his passes through two seasons as a backup, he proved small sample sizes can tell a semi-accurate story. That was enough to get him (over-)drafted second in the 2017 NFL draft.

If he didn’t produce, however, UNC wasn’t going to win. He threw interceptions in three games (two in each), and the Heels lost all three. When he produced a passer rating under 150, UNC went 1-4. The run game was decent but unspectacular (and it was horrendous in short-yardage situations), and the defense was decent but inefficient, and Trubisky had to be awesome for the Heels to survive.

Trubisky’s gone, and so are running backs Elijah Hood and T.J. Logan, receivers Ryan Switzer, Bug Howard, and Mack Hollins, and starting linemen Jon Heck, Lucas Crowley, Caleb Peterson. Yikes.

This isn’t going to scare coordinator Gunter Brewer too much; he’s seen things. His career got rolling when he coached Randy Moss as Marshall’s receivers coach, and he ended up holding the same roles at UNC and Oklahoma State (under Fedora). When Fedora left to take the Southern Miss head coaching gig, Brewer ended up as OSU co-coordinator, then as passing game coordinator for a year at Ole Miss. Once you’ve worked for a desperate Houston Nutt, not much is going to phase you.

Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images

Brandon Harris

With so much gone, let’s take stock:

LSU graduate transfer Brandon Harris was the Tigers’ QB for most of 2015, and he threw for 2,158 yards and 13 touchdowns while sharing a backfield with Leonard Fournette. He was inefficient but explosive, completing 54 percent but at 14.6 yards per completion. He struggled in a season-opening loss to Wisconsin last year, then got yanked after going 1-for-4 for eight yards against Jacksonville State.

If Harris doesn’t seize control, the job will go to sophomore Nathan Elliott (8-for-9 for 55 yards as Trubisky’s backup) or one of two redshirt freshmen — Chazz Surratt or Logan Byrd. Surratt was the most well-regarded as a recruit, and Elliott wasn’t awful in scrub time last fall.

Senior Austin Proehl is the de facto go-to in the receiving corps. Of the six players targeted at least 20 times, he’s the only returnee. He had 597 receiving yards at 8 yards per target, and his 49 percent success rate second-best of that six-man bunch. He peaked with seven catches for 99 yards in the win over Pitt and seven for 91 in the bowl loss to Stanford. The only other wideouts with more than three catches last year: former walk-on and potential possession extraordinaire Thomas Jackson (18 targets, 17 catches, 78 percent success rate last year) and Jordan Cunningham (10 targets, six catches, 82 yards).

Tackle Bentley Spain and guard R.J. Prince have combined for 35 career starts, and sophomore guard Tommy Hatton added an extra eight last season. They are joined by Florida graduate transfer Cameron Dillard and USC graduate transfer Khaliel Rodgers, plus a smattering of former star recruits — sophomore William Sweet, redshirt freshman Jay-Jay McCargo, freshman Jonah Melton, etc. In theory, there’s a nice starting five.

Oh right, running backs. Hmm. Auburn grad transfer Stanton Truitt rushed 31 times for the Tigers last year as a part-time RB/WR. Sophomore Jordon Brown gained just 45 yards in 20 carries last year. True freshmen Michael Carter and Antwuan Branch are options. Aaaaaand I’m not sure what else.

The run game will probably regress, which will put Trubisky-level pressure on the new passing corps. That doesn’t usually translate to success.

Defense

Former defensive coordinator Gene Chizik was really good at a couple of specific things. His Tar Heel defenses prevented big plays, waited for you to make a mistake, and then pounced, usually on passing downs. They were bend-don’t-break to the core, ranking 97th in success rate and 19th in IsoPPP (which measures the magnitude of the successful plays).

It’s hard to create an elite defense with those principles, but when you’re trying to restore credibility, it’s a good place to start. Before you can win (make stops), you have to figure out how not to lose (suffer big breakdowns), right?

UNC improved from 110th in Def. S&P+ pre-Chizik to 72nd in 2015 and 44th in 2016. But the 55-year old stepped aside to spend more time with his family, leaving John Papuchis to figure out how to keep pushing the defense forward.

The 39-year-old is a Bo Pelini disciple who spent 2008-10 as Nebraska’s defensive ends coach and 2012-14 as NU defensive coordinator. His last Husker defense ranked basically the same as UNC’s last year, but the Huskers ranked a more balanced 43rd in success rate and 56th in IsoPPP. They gave up more big plays but created far more turnover chances. And they did that with an ultra young front.

Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports

Malik Carney

Chizik had to deal with something similar last year. Among the 14 combined linemen and linebackers who recorded at least 8.5 tackles in 2016, six were sophomores, and three were freshmen. That didn’t do the Heels too many favors — they were 72nd in Rushing S&P+, 95th in rushing success rate, and 120th in stuff rate (run stops at or behind the line) — but assuming a normal developmental curve, that could mean improvement.

End Malik Carney recorded 8.5 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks last year, while tackles Jeremiah Clarke and Aaron Crawford appear to have potential as boulders in the middle. Meanwhile, junior linebackers Cole Holcomb and Andre Smith and senior Cayson Collins combined for 15 TFLs and eight breakups. If younger players like ends Jason Strowbridge and Tomon Fox and linebacker Dominique Ross live up to flashes of potential, the front seven could be fun. And if it isn’t, it probably will be in 2018.

Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images

M.J. Stewart

The secondary was dealt a tricky hand in having to compensate for such an inexperienced front seven. Opponents far preferred run to pass, rushing 68 percent of the time on standard downs (13th in FBS) and 45 percent on passing downs (second). And the return of safety Donnie Miles and corner M.J. Stewart gives the Heels a couple of anchors in the back once more.

Chizik didn’t employ a large rotation in the back, and the loss of safety Dominquie Green and corner Des Lawrence hurts. Even with Miles and Stewart, UNC will rely on youngsters — some combination of marginally tested juniors (Corey Bell Jr., J.K. Britt), sophomores (Myles Dorn, Patrice Rene, K.J. Sails, D.J. Ford), and freshmen (Myles Wolfolk, Greg Ross, C.J. Cotman, Tre Shaw).

The run defense better improve, but the timing might be right for Papuchis to dial up the aggressiveness.

Special Teams

First, the good news: punter Tom Sheldon is back. The 6’3 sophomore was a first-year hit, averaging 42.7 yards per kick with a good fair catch ratio and a 70 percent punting success rate (14th in FBS). Odds are decent that UNC will be punting more, and Sheldon could give the Heels a field position bump.

Now the bad news. No more Ryan Switzer (seven career punt return touchdowns). No more T.J. Logan (four career kick return touchdowns). No more Nick Weiler (7-for-10 on FGs longer than 40 yards last year).

UNC ranked ninth in Special Teams S&P+ last season, and unless Weiler’s replacement is amazing, there’s almost nowhere to go but down.

2017 outlook

2017 Schedule & Projection Factors

Date Opponent Proj. S&P+ Rk Proj. Margin Win Probability 2-Sep California 55 5.5 63% 9-Sep Louisville 14 -9.0 30% 16-Sep at Old Dominion 93 11.7 75% 23-Sep Duke 65 6.6 65% 30-Sep at Georgia Tech 31 -4.6 40% 7-Oct Notre Dame 17 -5.7 37% 14-Oct Virginia 70 9.4 71% 21-Oct at Virginia Tech 25 -7.0 34% 28-Oct Miami 18 -4.5 40% 9-Nov at Pittsburgh 33 -3.8 41% 18-Nov Western Carolina NR 38.8 99% 25-Nov at N.C. State 27 -5.4 38%

Projected S&P+ Rk 38 Proj. Off. / Def. Rk 59 / 32 Projected wins 6.3 Five-Year S&P+ Rk 6.9 (41) 2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk 29 / 24 2016 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin* -2 / 7.4 2016 TO Luck/Game -3.6 Returning Production (Off. / Def.) 41% (19%, 64%) 2016 Second-order wins (difference) 8.5 (-0.5)

UNC is experimenting with a newfound sense of normalcy, and it’s looked good in baby blue. But when you reach this top-30 level, one of two things tends to happen: you either upgrade, or you deal with bumps in the road. Recruiting isn’t changing much, so when experience isn’t distributed quite right, there will be setback years.

UNC will almost certainly regress, with this much offensive turnover, but whether the Heels fall to 35th or 55th or 75th will set the bar. Adding Harris helps to assure a higher floor, but if one of the younger guys beats him out for the starting QB job, that might not be the worst thing, long-term.

From Cal in the opener to NC State to finish the regular season, UNC’s season will be filled with relative tossups and ups and downs. The potential UNC shows will say a lot about Fedora’s ability to keep normalcy in Chapel Hill.

Team preview stats

All power conference preview data to date.