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thecollegefootballguy · 4 years ago

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2020 NY6 Prognostication: Week 8

With the Big Ten and Mountain West finally back the races for the NY6 bowls is starting to change as we see how all those teams stack up against each other. Not too much changes other than the Penn State upset, which could very well doom the Nittany Lions even though they absolutely outplayed Indiana and that last touchdown probably shouldn’t have counted. Let’s see how the picture has changed.

Cotton Bowl: 9-2 Oklahoma State vs 8-2 Texas A&M

Now wouldn’t this be a fun reunion? Oklahoma State is still undefeated but the Cowboys were given everything they could handle by Iowa State. I don’t think they have the stuff to win out. Texas A&M won’t win the SEC West but the Aggies are looking like a likely NY6 team as the rest of the division hasn’t yet sorted itself out.

Fiesta Bowl: 9-0 Boise State vs 6-1 Oregon

If Cincinnati goes undefeated the Bearcats will make it to the NY6 as the G5 representative, but they’ve got a few more hairy road dates that I think will mar their record. Boise looked like Boise when they easily beat up Utah State. I think the Broncos can come behind to win the G5 race over the ACC Champ, Marshall, and Coastal Carolina.

Orange Bowl: 10-2 Notre Dame vs 8-2 Florida

I’m pretty sure Notre Dame can take the ACC’s spot in the Orange Bowl this year. The Irish look good, and I’m not sure Clemson can beat them twice, but we shall see. Florida feels right here. The Gators could still beat Georgia and make the SEC Championship Game, but they aren’t likely to make the Playoff even if that happens.

Peach Bowl: 9-2 Georgia vs 7-2 Wisconsin

Florida in the Orange and Georgia in the Peach sounds like something that would happen. Wisconsin looked good in their revenge match against Illinois, and with Penn State suffering a serious setback I think the Badgers can get the nod over PSU for an NY6 bowl.

Rose Bowl (semifinal): 9-0 Ohio State vs 12-0 Clemson

Snore

Sugar Bowl (semifinal): 11-0 Alabama vs 8-1 Michigan

I still don’t really know what to do with the #4 Playoff spot. Do I think Michigan is the #4 team? No. Do I think they’d get in after losing The Game to Ohio State? Not really. But who best qualifies for the #4 spot really depends on what happens in the next two months. I just need to see more football to make an accurate judgement.

#college football #Oklahoma State Cowboys #Texas A&M Aggies #Boise State Broncos #Oregon Ducks #Notre Dame Fighting Irish #Florida Gators #Georgia Bulldogs #Wisconsin Badgers #Ohio State Buckeyes #Clemson Tigers #Alabama Crimson Tide #Michigan Wolverines

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junker-town · 6 years ago

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Where Clemson ranks among all-time title game shockers

There’s an easy argument that it’s the most unexpected championship result ever, but let’s take a look first.

Clemson obliterating Alabama in 2018’s national title game was one of the most stunning results in college football history, especially once you account for the weight of history.

But was it THE most jolting championship game ever?

This is an awkward question, because we’ve only had formal national title games for a couple decades now. However, we can also dig into the vaults and find old bowl games that just so happened to pair the top two teams and functioned as de facto championships.

According to the NCAA’s record books, what follows is a complete list of season-ending games in which the AP No. 2 team beat the No. 1 team.

This leaves out some midseason No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchups that happened to decide a season, but the majority of those were quite old (so good luck trying to figure out point spreads), and some have extra context. 1963 Texas won the title after beating former No. 1 Oklahoma, but OU would lose another game, so that doesn’t really stand up as a title game. Just for one example.

So let’s just go with bowl games.

Here’s the list. I’ve categorized things a little bit.

The old games I can’t find point spreads for, but which couldn’t possibly have been all THAT shocking, because look at them

1978’s Sugar Bowl: No. 2 Alabama 14, No. 1 Penn State 7

1982’s Sugar Bowl: No. 2 Penn State 27, No. 1 Georgia 23

1986’s Fiesta Bowl: No. 2 Penn State 14, No. 1 Miami 10

1987’s Orange Bowl: No. 2 Miami 20, No. 1 Oklahoma 14

I mean, even if the No. 1 team in any of these had happened to have been favored by 20 points or something (and I sure don’t believe that was the case for any), these were still just one-score games.

I’m guessing ��86 Penn State was a significant underdog, considering the storyline was Evil Goliath vs. Virtuous David (hindsight is really something) and the fact that PSU had looked quite beatable all season long. But still, it was a one-score result.

The big upsets that still came down to one play

2002 BCS Championship: No. 2 Ohio St. 31, No. 1 Miami (-12) 24

2005 BCS Championship: No. 2 Texas 41, No. 1 USC (-7) 38

Great (or terrible, depending on your vantage) games, but not world-melting upsets once you consider how close they were on the field. I mean, the whole world briefly thought Miami won that game, before refs determined Miami actually hadn’t.

The upsets that were technically not even upsets

2007 BCS Championship: No. 2 LSU (-4) 38, No. 1 Ohio State 24

2011 BCS Championship: No. 2 Alabama (-2.5) 21, No. 1 LSU 0

2012 BCS Championship: No. 2 Alabama (-10) 42, No. 1 Notre Dame 14

2015 National Championship: No. 2 Alabama (-6.5) 45, No. 1 Clemson 40

In each of these, the lower-ranked team was actually favored by Vegas anyway.

2007 was pure pants-on-head lunacy from start to finish, so that result was well within relative reason. Everyone knew 2012 Notre Dame was trumped-up. And Nick Saban’s Bama beating anybody can’t possibly be an actual upset.

Still, in hindsight, I’ll never know exactly why 2011 Bama was favored to beat the clear best team in the country to that point, a team that’d already beaten Bama that season, but that’s what the card says. Everyone sensed LSU was about to attempt to become Georgia Southern on the fly, I guess.

Thus the only actual contenders for the title of “most shocking championship game ever” are:

1992’s Sugar Bowl: No. 2 Alabama 34, No. 1 Miami (-8) 13

2006 BCS Championship: No. 2 Florida 41, No. 1 Ohio State (-7) 14

2018 National Championship: No. 2 Clemson 44, No. 1 Alabama (-5) 16

In hindsight, Miami was a little inflated in that Sugar Bowl, thanks to its undefeated streak that dated back to 1990 and a close win over No. 2 Florida State. Meanwhile, Gene Stallings’ Bama had beaten four final ranked teams. Per modern math (Sports-Reference’s SRS), the Tide had a comparable scoring margin against a highly comparable schedule, and this spread probably should’ve been narrower. Easy to say now, I guess.

The 2006 BCS title game’s big controversy: Florida even getting a chance to play Ohio State to begin with. Many (fairly) argued Michigan should get a rematch shot. The Gators lost by 10 at Auburn, scored in the 20s almost all year, and had five one-score wins. Ohio State had, among other things, allowed 17 points for the entire month of October. This game was supposed to be all about the Buckeyes holding the Gators to .01 points. Anyway, this game birthed the SEC chant, the SEC speed meme, and like everything else you hate about the SEC.

And then there’s 2018. There are two ways of looking at it.

Clemson was dominant, undefeated, talented, improving, and only a point or so behind Bama in all the power rankings, including exactly one point in S&P+.

This is Saban’s Alabama we’re talking about. The greatest dynasty in modern FBS history. Throw your little power rankings aside and prepare to be digested by The Process.

Well, the numbers were right, while the narratives that’d been hammered into our heads over the previous decade were all wrong.

Based strictly on the disparity between Vegas’ expected result and the actual result, the 2006 title game takes the cake, but once you add in the fact that this was the worst L suffered by college football’s greatest coach since he was back in the NFL, I think you have to hand it to 2018.

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flauntpage · 7 years ago

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Your Monday Morning Roundup

It’s GAMEDAY! For the second time in as many weeks, the Birds did not play on Sunday, going primetime. Tonight in Philly, the ONLY team in the NFL with just one loss, hosts the Washington Redskins at the Linc. An 8:15 p.m. kick-off is set on ESPN.

Our CB staff predictions, which you can always take to the bank (unclear if they’ll have funds available) will be coming out later today.

The rest of the NFC East was split in Sunday’s action as the Cowboys crushed the winless-49ers and the Giants fell to the Seahawks.

The Eagles are 5 point favorites and the Redskins will be without Josh Norman, who is out. A win for the Eagles would sweep the season series against Washington and firmly put the NFC East in the Philly’s grasp.

Be sure to keep it locked to CB tonight for the live game thread and on Tuesday for the best day after Eagles coverage anywhere.

You may want to enjoy the game and our content with a cheesesteak, ESPN tried to make one:

A Monday Night rivalry game in Philly deserves a good Philly cheesesteak. http://pic.twitter.com/PdugHRdWKc

— ESPN (@espn) October 21, 2017

Now, to what else happened in a football packed weekend.

But first, a word from our sponsors:

Legal. Check out Krasno, Krasno and Onwudinjo when you need a workers’ compensation or social security attorney.

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Amazon. If you shop Amazon, support your favorite website and use our link.

The Roundup:

Around the rest of the NFL, it was a rough day for quarterbacks. Carson Palmer suffered a broken arm, and Jay Cutler has a cracked rib. On the offensive line, Joe Thomas missed an offensive snap for Cleveland, the first time that has happened since 2006. He missed the remainder of Sunday’s loss after playing 10,363 consecutive snaps.

—

In MLB, the Fall Classic is set. It is Chase Utley and the Los Angeles Dodgers vs. the Houston Astros, both of whom will be shaking off the SI cover curse:

Jinx vs. Jinx http://pic.twitter.com/ejEvnEyzrJ

— Don Van Natta Jr. (@DVNJr) October 22, 2017

Game 1 is at Dodger Stadium on Tuesday night at 8:09 p.m. on FOX.

—

The Sixers play tonight as well when they visit the Detroit Pistons at 7 p.m. Philly is still searching for its first win this season.

They fell to 0-3 after a big loss to Toronto over the weekend, our Kevin Kinkead compiled five takeaways from the setback. Here’s a snippet:

Fultz had six points on 1-5 shooting and went 4-8 from the free throw line.

Is it time to start worrying? If not now, when?

These are rhetorical questions for you, the fan. I really don’t know. I’m not gonna give you a hot take right now. Actually, the hot take might not be giving any take at all. The reservation of judgment feels so contrarian in 2017.

Again, with the shoulder, if he’s not healthy, just sit him and get that taken care of because he continues to hurt himself mechanically and mentally in overcompensation.

—

The Flyers return to action on Tuesday night when they host the Anaheim Ducks at the Wells Fargo Center at 7 p.m. They are 5-3-0 after a 2-1 victory over the Oilers over the weekend. Our Anthony SanFilippo jotted down seven takeaways from the win, including this one:

There was a time when playing the Flyers amounted to the opposition creating a game plan that required good defense against the top line, not getting caught taking too many penalties, and simply being opportunistic when the other lines were on the ice.

It was pretty standard for, oh, I don’t know, about 40 years.

But, something has changed with the organization. GM Ron Hextall’s plan has plodded along slowly, but it’s definitely starting to bear fruit.

The Flyers can skate. The Flyers have depth. The Flyers are no longer a one-trick pony.

And it may have caught the league a little by surprise to start this season. They will roll four lines at you consistently. They will skate with you. And, they have talent throughout the lineup that can score.

Putting up 26 goals through the first six games (really in five, since they were shutout in one of them) was evidence that the Flyers have some firepower on the roster.

And it’s not like the Flyers were doing this against doormat teams. San Jose was the Western Conference Champion two seasons ago. Nashville was the Western Conference champion last year. Anaheim was in the Western Conference Finals and Washington had the best record in the league last season.

That’s all impressive.

But what happened the past two games? Only two goals scored. Only two goals allowed. Only 100 shots total by all teams involved in two games, an average of 25 each and nine off the pace of those first six games for the Flyers.

Teams have decided they need to find ways to slow the Flyers down.

I decided to press this issue with a couple Flyers after the game.

“As the year goes along, teams get better defensively and things tighten up,” Wayne Simmonds told me. “It is what it is and you have to learn how to deal with it.”

And deal with it they are.

—

The Phillies are still interviewing candidates for the managerial opening:

The #Phillies have interviewed Phil Nevin, Chip Hale, Gary DiSarcina, Dustin Wathan, Jorge Valendia and Juan Samuel for managerial opening.

— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) October 21, 2017

—

It was an exciting Saturday in college football as well as #2 Penn State beat up #19 Michigan 42-13 and #13 Notre Dame upset #11 USC. Saquon Barkley had 161 all-purpose yards and three total touchdowns in the win. Our Kevin Kinkead talk about his Heisman status late last week.

With those results, Penn State stays at #2 in this week’s AP Top 25, but Notre Dame moves up to #9. Michigan falls out of the rankings.

This Saturday the Nittany Lions face the #6 Buckeyes of Ohio Sate, in Columbus, and are not getting a lot of respect as Ohio State is seven point favorites over PSU.

Overall, it should be an exciting day of College Football once again this Saturday:

This weeks ranked vs ranked games #2 Penn St at #6 Ohio St #4 TCU at #25 Iowa St #14 NCSt at #9 Notre Dame #11 Okla St at #22 West Virgnina

— Phil Steele (@philsteele042) October 22, 2017

—

Sixers fans baited $25k out of Kyrie Irving:

The NBA announces a $25,000 fine for Boston's Kyrie Irving … http://pic.twitter.com/6RIINnR0Di

— Marc Stein (@TheSteinLine) October 22, 2017

—

The latest Crossing BroadCast dropped this morning and focuses on the Sixers.

—

The Bills won, so the fans took it to the next level:

Figured the Mafia would have something fun planned because of the great weather, didn't expect fire http://pic.twitter.com/0doGHJbLnR

— Busted Coverage (@bustedcoverage) October 22, 2017

—

Just like the Sixers, the Suns are off to an 0-3 start. The team just fired its head coach Earl Watson and Eric Bledsoe wishes there was room in Watson’s suitcase for him:

I Dont wanna be here

— Eric Bledsoe (@EBled2) October 22, 2017

—

And lastly, Tim Tebow’s speech on ESPN over the weekend meant for Tennessee will get you ready to have the most productive week ever:

It wasn't even 9am and @TimTebow had us ready to run through a brick wall. http://pic.twitter.com/UrwRpGGW0E

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) October 21, 2017

Your Monday Morning Roundup published first on http://ift.tt/2pLTmlv

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auburnfamilynews · 7 years ago

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We step outside the conference for this week’s guide to Saturday!

If your desire for the first real fall-like weekend this year is to watch SEC football, you may be out of luck for the most part. After opening with a fair amount of Power 5 non-conference opponents in Week One, the league mostly takes a step back and signs the checks as they welcome lower-division schools from around the country.

This weekend’s conference slate features such games as:

#22 Florida vs Northern Colorado (11 am CST)

Kentucky vs Eastern Kentucky (11 am CST)

Ole Miss vs UT-Martin (11 am CST)

#1 Alabama vs Fresno State (2:30 pm CST)

#25 Tennessee vs Indiana State (3:00 pm CST)

Vanderbilt vs Alabama A&M (3:00 pm CST)

Texas A&M vs Nicholls (6:00 pm CST)

#12 LSU vs Chattanooga (6:30 pm CST)

Mississippi State vs Louisiana Tech (7:30 pm CST)

As you can see, there’s not a whole lot to watch aside from Auburn-Clemson. However, we do have a couple games on the conference landscape, so let’s touch on those before we hit the biggies around the country.

APPETIZERS

Arkansas vs #23 TCU (2:30 pm CST): It’s the first real test this season for Bert and his Piggies as they get to see what Kenny Trill (remember him) can bring to Fayetteville along with Gary Patterson and the Horned Frogs. Last year Arkansas beat an average TCU team 41-38, but it came a week after the Hogs nearly fell to Louisiana Tech. TCU looks better this year, and Arkansas took a little while to get going last week in the win over FAMU. If I was a betting man, I’d take Patterson and company this week on the road. I won’t believe that Bielema’s got it together until I see it.

Missouri vs South Carolina (6:00 pm CST): It’s the only conference matchup this weekend, and it’s going to tell us a good bit about both of these teams from the East. South Carolina looked pretty good against NC State last weekend, while Missouri played basketball against heated rival Missouri State in a 78-43 victory at home. The Tigers had the conference’s top offense in terms of yardage last year, but it was heavily skewed by fattening up against bad non-con opponents. I imagine Will Muschamp’s defense brings Drew Lock back to earth on Saturday night, but we’ll get a look at what Missouri likes to do before Auburn heads to CoMo in a couple weeks.

SOUP AND SALAD

#4 Penn State vs Pittsburgh (2:30 pm CST): This is a rematch game from last season’s early September schedule where Pitt beat the Nittany Lions at Heinz Field. At that time, we didn’t think PSU was any good since they got trounced by Michigan a couple weeks later, but they turned it on and won nine straight through the Big Ten title game and went to the Rose Bowl. James Franklin’s bunch looked crisp against Akron, and this is the game that Saquon Barkley can use to fully put himself near the top of the Heisman race. Pitt got taken to overtime by Youngstown State. Bet on the Lions.

ENTREE(S)

This is an incredible Saturday night of college football — along with Auburn/Clemson, you’ll get to see three other huge games at the same time. It’ll be like getting your steak, lobster, ribs, and salmon all at once and having to decide what to eat. Let’s dive in.

#2 Ohio State vs #5 Oklahoma (6:30 pm CST): A year ago, it seemed like Ohio State might be the best team in the country after they went down to Norman and roasted the Sooners 45-24. This time around, they’ll have another opportunity to try and prove that with a top-five matchup happening at the Horseshoe in Columbus. JT Barrett didn’t look great in the opener, a win over Indiana, while Oklahoma didn’t really give us anything concrete as they whipped UTEP 56-7. Baker Mayfield did complete 19-20 passes in the opener, but again, look at the competition. I have to think that Ohio State wins this, as OU’s lost a little more talent from last year’s team than the Buckeyes did. I’ll pick Ohio State to win a not-very-exciting game as they roll to the game against Penn State undefeated in late October.

#24 Notre Dame vs #15 Georgia (6:30 pm CST): It’s the first time these two have met since the Sugar Bowl after the 1980 season, where Georgia beat the Irish and won their last national championship. This Saturday, we probably won’t learn a whole lot about the Bulldogs’ offense since Jacob Eason will not play after injuring his knee in the opening win over App State. We may learn a great deal about their defense, since Notre Dame will bring in a rushing attack that produced three 100-yard guys in their win over Temple to begin the year. Brandon Wimbush is a mobile quarterback, and if he gives Kirby Smart’s defense some trouble, it may have future teams in the SEC licking their chops. Or Georgia could overpower the Irish and send Brian Kelly’s job status into further doubt. I’d love to see the former, but I think we’ll see the latter.

#6 USC vs #14 Stanford (7:30 pm CST): Last year, Stanford hit USC in the mouth in a 27-10 victory, but that was early in the season before Sam Darnold became the guy at quarterback for the Trojans. Now, he’s the hottest quarterback prospect in the country, despite the fact that he threw a couple of picks against Western Michigan in what turned out to be a much more difficult game than most people expected. I really don’t know what to expect here, as USC is full of talent, but David Shaw’s got that classic powerful, big-shoulder-pad-wearing Cardinal dynamic going in Palo Alto. I’ll say that just a short while after Clemson goes down, so do the Trojans, making this our first upset weekend of 2017.

DESSERT

#20 Washington State vs Boise State (9:30 pm CST): The Cougs have started this year 1-0, which is a bit of a surprise! Under Mike Leach, Wazzu lost the season opener to FCS teams each of the last two years, and then went on to run off pretty good seasons with nine and eight wins respectively. Boise State beat Troy in Week One, but this ain’t your daddy’s Chris Petersen Boise team. WSU has a pretty good quarterback named Luke Falk (you’d hear a lot more about him if he wasn’t in the same conference as Darnold and Josh Rosen), and the Cougs are poised to sit at 4-0 when USC comes to town at the end of September. I like Wazzu this weekend for a weird Saturday night closer and for a fun little run as a sleeper team in the Pac-12.

Great weekend on tap, everyone. Just a pity that the huge games aren’t spread out a bit. Maybe you’ll be able to turn on Ohio State-Oklahoma once Auburn puts the subs in up 35 in the fourth at Clemson. War Eagle!

from College and Magnolia http://bit.ly/2eMPgD8

#IFTTT #Blogger #auburn #auburn fast #wareagle #AuburnFamilyNews #war eagle #sec #football news #aubu

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sportofusalacrosse · 2 years ago

Video

youtube

Top lacrosse video today: Notre Dame vs UNC Lacrosse Highlights | 2023 College Lacrosse

Top lacrosse news

„Talent alert! Ortlieb (Malvern Prep) and PSU commit Aquino (ANC) shine in showdown at Panzar Stadium” – phillylacrosse

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„Registration open for Delaware Lacrosse League’s new Apex Division for Adults 18 and over at Chase Fieldhouse” – phillylacrosse

„Phillylacrosse.com Boys’ Rankings: Big week for No. 2 Haverford School – Sponsored by @NXTlacrosse” – phillylacrosse

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Best tweets – 2023. 04. 24.

#MLL #Lacrosse #NLL #lax #sport #news #sportvideo

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thecollegefootballguy · 5 years ago

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2019 Top Games of the Week: Week 9

Uhhh aside from a few standouts this isn’t a great week in terms of overall quality. Well, let’s be quick about this then.

The FCS has good games! If you care about those lol.

The Top Ten Games of the Week

10. California 4-3 (1-3) at #12 Utah 6-1 (3-1)

This is pretty much just to see if the PAC-12 really wants to start the implosion process. Cal can’t really score right now so this one might not be interesting. Maybe...

9. Oklahoma State 4-3 (1-3) at #23 Iowa State 5-2 (3-1)

Oklahoma State is really starting to get uncomfortable. The usually solid Cowboys are in danger of finishing in the bottom half of the conference, and the schedule doesn’t let up. Iowa State, meanwhile, is re-inserting themselves into the race for the Top 2, ready to pounce if Oklahoma or Baylor slips up.

8. Washington State 4-3 (1-3) at #11 Oregon 6-1 (4-0)

Washington State has beaten Oregon for four times in a row. That streak is in serious jeopardy this year. This isn’t the same Wazzu team that came an Apple Cup away from the PAC-12 CG twice and this isn’t the same Duck squad scuffling to find an identity.

7. Virginia 5-2 (3-1) at Louisville 4-3 (2-2)

Virginia has exorcised a few demons by blowing out Duke last week. The Cavaliers are back to the top of the Coastal standings but precariously keeping several other contenders at bay. Meanwhile, Louisville is quietly rebounding from their disastrous 2018 campaign and now poses a real upset threat to UVA.

6. #15 Texas 5-2 (3-1) at TCU 3-3 (1-2)

I mean, Texas almost lost to Kansas, so a loss in Fort Worth is a real possibility if TCU can get their offense going.

5. #5 Oklahoma 7-0 (4-0) at Kansas State 4-2 (1-2)

The list of games where Oklahoma could slip up and miss the Playoff is starting to look pretty slim. The Sooners should be heavily favored here, and Kansas State is probably a year or two away from contending, but it’s not like the Wildcats have lost the ability to upset heavily favored teams. Bill Snyder hasn’t been gone long enough for that ability to have died out.

4. #6 Penn State 7-0 (4-0) at Michigan State 4-3 (2-2)

The Michigan State test is one that every Big Ten Playoff hopeful has to pass. It has upended Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State in the past years. This season, the Buckeyes passed with flying colors, now it’s PSU’s turn.

3. #8 Notre Dame 5-1 at #19 Michigan 5-2 (3-2)

They say Jim Harbaugh doesn’t win big games. Well here’s a perfect shot at redemption. Notre Dame should be better than the Wolverines, but by how much? Enough to make a difference at the Big House? We’ll see.

2. #13 Wisconsin 6-1 (3-1) at #3 Ohio State 7-0 (4-0)

God I was so ready to put this game at #1, but Wisconsin had to go ahead and lose against Illinois. Come on, man. Oh well. Let’s see if the Badgers can rebound against, by far, their toughest opponent this season. Ohio State is on the war path and have utterly buried every team they’ve played so far, can they keep it up against Wisconsin’s stout defense?

1. #9 Auburn 6-1 (3-1) at #2 LSU 7-0 (3-0)

The Tiger Bowl has had plenty of good games, but this one is shaping up to be very important even among their best. Auburn and LSU both have their eyes on wresting the SEC West away from Alabama and have the slimmest margin of error to do so. The winner here will still be able to win out and secure the division, the loser will fall behind, potentially too far to rebound. Their respective dates with the Tide still loom. Winning here is critical.

5 G5 Games of the Week

5. Nevada 4-3 (1-2) at Wyoming 5-2 (2-1)

The Mountain West division races are wide open and both Nevada and Wyoming are fighting to not be left behind.

4. Tulane 5-2 (2-1) at Navy 5-1 (3-1)

While SMU and Memphis march towards their showdown to decide the AAC West, Tulane and Navy attempt to keep pace and hope the frontrunners slip up.

3. UCF 5-2 (2-1) at Temple 5-2 (2-1)

UCF is still probably the best team in the AAC. The Knights can still win out and make a case for themselves if Cincinnati slips up. Likewise, Temple sill has their destiny in their hands.

2. Western Kentucky 5-2 (4-0) at Marshall 4-3 (2-1)

This could very well decide the C-USA East. Western Kentucky has been a breakout success in the G5, but the Hilltoppers have yet to face their toughest division foes.

1. Utah State 4-2 (3-0) at Air Force 5-2 (3-1)

Realistically (sorry Wyoming) the winner of this contest will challenge Boise State for the Mountain West. Utah State has been their usual solid selves, playing well but losing to two P5 teams, but so far going undefeated in conference play. Meanwhile, Air Force has been playing better and better each week. Unfortunately for the Falcons, they lost to Boise early, and don’t control their own destiny.

FCS Games of the Week

5. #16 Towson 4-3 (1-2) at #2 James Madison 7-1 (4-0)

The merry-go-round of ranked vs ranked games in the CAA gives us Towson at James Madison this week.

4. Harvard 4-1 (2-0) at #13 Princeton 5-0 (2-0)

Harvard and Princeton renew their ancient rivalry for the 112th time. Both teams are undefeated in Ivy League play and it’s a good chance that the winner of this game will go on to win the conference title.

3. #4 Weber State 5-2 (3-0) at #22 UC Davis 4-4 (2-1)

Weber State hasn’t yet lost to an FCS opponent. The Wildcats face their toughest conference opponent to date as they fly out to Davis.

2. #21 Sam Houston State 5-3 (4-1) at #12 Central Arkansas 5-2 (3-1)

The Southland is very much up for grabs now that Sam Houston State upset Nicholls State last week. Two of the three frontrunners play for the lead this Saturday.

1. #1 North Dakota State 7-0 (3-0) at #3 South Dakota State 6-1 (3-0)

The most important game in the FCS regular season, as it has been for the last several years. The last time NDSU lost was back on November 4th, 2017, in their regular season bout with South Dakota State two years ago. The winner has pole position to the #1 seed in the Playoff.

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thecollegefootballguy · 5 years ago

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2019 Top Games of the Week: Week 7

Wow we’re really already at Week 7, can you believe it? Almost halfway done with the season. Any way, this might be the best week so far, four ranked vs ranked matchups and a handful of great rivalry games.

The Top Ten Games of the Week

10. Hawaii 4-1 (1-0) at #14 Boise State 5-0 (2-0)

Boise State is gunning for their first undefeated regular season since the Chris Petersen era. The Broncos look good enough to pull it off, but they still have a few challenging games left on the schedule. Hawaii looks even better than their turnaround season last year. The Rainbow Warriors are building and look like one of the contenders for the MWC West division. This old WAC series isn’t played as often with both teams now in the Mountain West, but this one certainly has higher stakes than any game played since that old league gave up football.

9. Nebraska 4-2 (2-1) at Minnesota 5-0 (2-0)

Iowa and Wisconsin are sucking up all the oxygen in the Big Ten West race, but both Nebraska and Minnesota are undefeated in division play and could make a run if they win the right games. The Gophers are undefeated period, and are one of the surprise stories of this early season. Their first competent win came last week against Illinois, but the Cornhuskers should be a much tougher task for Minnesota.

8. Texas Tech 3-2 (1-1) at #22 Baylor 5-0 (2-0)

For the first time in over ten years, these two rivals are playing an on-campus game, and it could be the most important game in the series in just as long. Like Minnesota, Baylor has been one of the more surprising teams so far. The Bears are also undefeated, but are relatively unchallenged aside from their close scrape with Iowa State. Texas Tech appears ahead of schedule after the Red Raiders held off Oklahoma State last Saturday. The middle of the Big 12 remains one of the more fascinating parts of college football in 2019.

7. #23 Memphis 5-0 (1-0) at Temple 4-1 (1-0)

The best game in the AAC takes the second G5 spot in the top ten. Memphis now has the clearest path of any American team to go undefeated and secure the NY6 bid. Aside from their curious loss to Buffalo, has also looked solid. The Owls are the Tigers’ hardest remaining road game and one of the biggest chances to upend Memphis.

6. USC 3-2 (2-1) at #9 Notre Dame 4-1

The greatest intersectional rivalry in college football makes the grade, as it does basically every year. Both teams are coming off bye weeks and should be well prepared for this game (for our purposes Bowling Green counts as a bye). USC has been hot and cold with a rotating QB cast. The Fighting Irish are definitely favored here but the Trojans could be one of the tougher teams ND faces as they make a case for the Playoff as a one-loss team.

5. Michigan State 4-2 (2-1) at #8 Wisconsin 5-0 (2-0)

If you thought Iowa-Michigan was a beautiful disaster of good defense and bad offense wait until you see Michigan State-Wisconsin. It’s going to be a rockfight in all the best and worst ways. The Spartans are so far the only team that’s even slowed down Ohio State, which leads me to think they can give the Badgers a ton of trouble. That said, if Wisconsin is a Playoff contender even close to OSU’s caliber, we can measure it here.

4. #1 Alabama 5-0 (2-0) at #24 Texas A&M 3-2 (1-1)

I want to believe A&M can challenge Alabama. I don’t. But I want to.

3. #10 Penn State 5-0 (2-0) at #17 Iowa 4-1 (1-1)

Boy we have a really good week if this game is only 3rd on the list. Penn State is this year’s Iowa City sacrifice. The Nittany Lions enter as this year’s Playoff hopeful that have to survive the ordeal of playing at Kinnick Stadium as a top ten team. We took a year off last season but 2017 ruined #3 Ohio State’s hopes and 2016 claimed #2 Michigan. Iowa only lost by a touchdown last year in Happy Valley. Godspeed PSU.

2. #7 Florida 6-0 (3-0) at #5 LSU 5-0 (2-0)

If you want to put this game up at the #1 spot be my guest, but I’m saving that for an even better rivalry game. As the only top ten game this week, Florida at LSU is hosting Gameday, which comes as no surprise. Florida pulled off an ugly but triumphant victory over Auburn last week. Most people, myself included, doubted the Gators’ ability to beat top flight competition. Now UF has an even tougher test as they head to Death Valley. LSU similarly hasn’t played a team this good yet, and has so far been untested at home. These are very likely the #2 teams in both divisions, so a win here would be critical for getting to the conference title game.

1. #6 Oklahoma 5-0 (2-0) vs #11 Texas 4-1 (2-0)

Well of course, the 115th playing of the Red River Shootout naturally takes the #1 spot with the stakes involved. Once again, Oklahoma and Texas are far and away the favorites to play for the Big 12 title and their yearly pilgrimage to the Cotton Bowl will help sort out that out. This could once again be a rematch in the Championship Game, but only the winner of this game will likely have their seat secure.

5 G5 Games of the Week

5. Army 3-2 at Western Kentucky 3-2 (3-0)

We get some smaller interesting games in the G5 Top 5 with two G5 games making the overall Top Ten. Army goes on the road against a surprisingly good Western Kentucky squad. The Hilltoppers were absolutely moribund last season, but have already taken down preseason favorite FIU and last year’s champion UAB.

4. San Jose State 3-2 (1-1) at Nevada 3-2 (0-1)

The Mountain West’s West Division is probably not the best in the G5, but it could be the most competitive. San Jose State is suddenly showing flashes of life for the first time in years. Nevada looked on the cusp of a breakthrough last season. The Wolf Pack haven’t yet filled that promise after getting blown out by Hawaii, but they can stay in the race and see how everything shakes out with a win here.

3. Wyoming 4-1 (1-0) at San Diego State 4-1 (1-1)

Wyoming and San Diego State make up the Mountain West’s robust middle class chasing Boise State for a shot at the league title. Both have their strengths and weaknesses but they’re coming in with momentum. Last week the Cowboys blew up UNLV and the Aztecs totally shut down Colorado State in Fort Collins.

2. Fresno State 2-2 (0-0) at Air Force 3-2 (1-1)

The trio of solid MWC games is capped off with 2017 and 2018 West Division champion going on the road to take on Air Force. The Falcons are always an upset threat with their option attack and the Bulldogs haven’t yet looked like the dangerous team we saw the past few seasons.

1. Appalachian State 4-0 (1-0) at Louisiana-Lafayette 4-1 (1-0)

This looks like the Sun Belt Championship Game as far as I’m concerned. With both Troy and Georgia Southern looking a step slower than their 2018 selves, the Mountaineers will likely run away with the East. With Arkansas State similarly looking a bit down and ULM not quite there yet, Louisiana-Lafayette should again with the West. App State has an undefeated season and a very remote shot at the NY6 bowl on the line, so I’m going to be keeping tabs on this one.

FCS Games of the Week

3. #3 South Dakota State 4-1 (1-0) at #19 Youngstown State 4-1 (0-1)

2. #10 Northern Iowa 3-2 (1-0) at #1 North Dakota State 5-0 (1-0)

South Dakota State and North Dakota State are on their inexorable march towards destiny. They both need to take care of business beforehand, and a tough trip to Youngstown State and hosting the punchy NIU Panthers are some of the more difficult games they’ll face in the regular season. I still expect both to win.

1. #5 Villanova 6-0 (3-0) at #2 James Madison 5-1 (2-0)

The CAA brings us a very interesting Top Five matchup, the second of the FCS season. Villanova has jumped from being unranked all the way to #5 by blazing through the first half of the season, only encountering a close game by way of fellow top ten conference-mate Towson. James Madison is still the perennial favorite, but this could be the Dukes’ toughest conference test this year.

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thecollegefootballguy · 6 years ago

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Top 14 Big Ten Games in 2018

We move on with a look to the Midwest and a look at the biggest games in the Big Ten conference, at least from a preseason perspective.

The Big Ten has plenty of intrigue this year. The West appears to be slowly improving, and the East is as tough as ever. Surely some unforeseen games will surprise us along the way, but here are the obvious candidates for the meetings that will decide the season.

First off, a few honorable mentions:

Notre Dame at Northwestern Northwestern at Purdue Northwestern at Iowa Iowa at Purdue Iowa State at Iowa Penn State at Pittsburgh Ohio State at Purdue Northwestern at Michigan State

These are the second tier of games, most of them will have some impact on bowl positioning, though I’d bet some of these will end up being more important than we anticipated.

14. Wisconsin at Purdue

Purdue is good again, it’s a weird feeling. The Boilermakers have an offense and they’re gonna be able to do some damage with it. Wisconsin travels to West Lafayette in late November, after what will surely be a taxing game against Penn State. Purdue has the perfect opportunity to topple the division favorites, and with the Badgers’ schedule, the West race could open up to the right usurper if Wisconsin drops a couple of games.

13. Ohio State vs TCU

Of of the more interesting non-rivalry non-conference games, Ohio State travels to unfriendly territory, playing in Arlington, just a short distance away from Fort Worth. The Buckeyes have made a habit of scheduling a tough opponent outside of the Big Ten schedule, and 2018 is no different. TCU were comfortably the second-best team in the Big 12 last year and will be OSU’s first test this season.

12. Michigan at Northwestern

A cross-division game which poses a whole host of problems for both teams. Michigan and Northwestern aren’t the favorites in their respective divisions, but they have the ability to compete nonetheless. Neither team can really afford to lose a conference game so early in the season. The Wolverines may already have a loss at the hands of Notre Dame. Two losses in September will remove UM from the Playoff picture before they even play Wisconsin, MSU, PSU, and OSU. The Wildcats may be 3-0 when they host the Wolverines, but this game is the first of a one-two punch against both Michigan schools which will jeopardize their division aspirations if they go any worse than 1-1.

11. Michigan at Notre Dame

The biggest non-conference game in the Big Ten in 2018 has to be the (temporary) revival of the Michigan-Notre Dame rivalry. The Wolverines and Irish are both expected to have better seasons than last year, but one of these teams is gonna start 0-1 and at a disadvantage in the Playoff race right off the bat. The Irish should be favored, but this might come down to which team is better prepared to start the season. It’s just great to see these two teams playing again, no matter the circumstances.

10. Michigan State at Penn State

You know the Big Ten schedule is good this year because this game, which had so much impact last year, is all the way down at tenth on this list. Michigan State will be a contender in the East, and Penn State seems even more secure, possibly even a favorite with Ohio State suddenly a little more unsettled. The Spartans and Nittany Lions will probably play some kind of ugly slug-fest, but that’s nothing new.

9. Wisconsin at Iowa

Wisconsin’s brutal crossover schedule means they absolutely need to beat their division challengers in order to establish tiebreaking wins in case the Badgers end up 8-1 or 7-2 in Big Ten play. The Badgers’ first conference game of the season is against rival Iowa. For the past two seasons, the Hawkeyes have upset a heavily favored, highly ranked conference opponent, keeping them out of the Playoff. I’m just saying. Wisconsin is gonna be good but this game might play out very different from what the Badgers expect if they aren’t careful.

8. Michigan at Michigan State

Yeah it feels really weird to put a game this big in the bottom half of the list, but the Big Ten is just that top-heavy. Michigan and Michigan State will be in the mix in the East, but likely as the third and fourth best teams in the division (I’ll let you decide the order). Since OSU and PSU will more likely than not decide the division, this game takes a slight backseat.

7. Wisconsin at Northwestern

Probably the biggest Big Ten West game of the season, Wisconsin and Northwestern meet in late October to battle for supremacy in the West division. Without a doubt, the Wildcats will be an underdog, but the Badgers are walking along a razor’s edge, and have much less leeway with their formidable cross-division schedule. If Northwestern can establish a tiebreaking win over Wisconsin, it could very well get them to their first Big Ten Championship Game.

6. Wisconsin at Michigan

One of the biggest cross-division games could very well make or break a Playoff berth for either team. Wisconsin’s horrifying road slate will likely hand them at least one loss, and this is one of the most obvious candidates. The game might still be more important for Michigan, as the Wolverines absolutely cannot afford to lose a cross-division game. It would be a minor miracle for UM to make their way completely unscathed through the East, so a loss at home to Wisconsin would be a crushing blow to their division aspirations.

5. Wisconsin at Penn State

This is pretty much the same situation as Wisconsin-Michigan, but later in the season and probably featuring an even more serious contender from the East. Penn State probably has the most favorable schedule of all the Big Ten’s real Playoff contenders. The Nittany Lions host most of the best teams they play, though they aren’t spaced out too well. PSU’s game against the Badgers will come in the second week of November, the week after their meeting with Michigan. If Penn State manages to somehow beat the other three East contenders, Wisconsin will be the last hurdle to clear to get that elusive Playoff berth.

4. Ohio State at Michigan State

Ohio State’s early November game in East Lansing will happen on the same day as Penn State-Wisconsin. Who knows, this could be the day the Big Ten East is decided. Every time Michigan State appears to take a step back behind the three bigger brands in their division, the Spartans punch somebody in the nose, usually resulting in the loss of a Playoff berth. MSU did this to Ohio State as recently as 2015, and the Spartans are in a good position to do so again in 2018.

3. Michigan at Ohio State

The Game isn’t the most important contest in the Big Ten Conference in 2018, but it’s pretty close. It’s always a big deal, as one of the fiercest rivalries in the country. Ohio State’s recent run of dominance has added fuel to the fire. Every meeting is must-see tv and with both teams among the best in the league yet again this won’t be any different.

2. Penn State at Michigan

Penn State is one of the serious contenders for the Big Ten East and has the easiest conference schedule among the top flight of teams in the conference. The Nittany Lions’ toughest road game is certainly their date with Michigan at the beginning of November. If PSU manages to get past Ohio State and Michigan State earlier in the season, this would be their last obstacle standing between them and the Big Ten Championship Game, and probably a Playoff berth.

1. Ohio State at Penn State

Look, let’s be real for a second. We can hype Michigan, Wisconsin, and Michigan State all we want, but Ohio State and Penn State are 1a and 1b in terms of the favorites to both win the Big Ten and make the Playoff as the league representative. The Buckeyes are expected to be slightly better, but the Nittany Lions are at home. Circle this one in red ink, the winner here will probably win the Big Ten.

#college football #Big Ten #Wisconsin Badgers #Purdue Boilermakers #Ohio State Buckeyes #TCU Horned Frogs #Michigan Wolverines #Northwestern Wildcats #Notre Dame Fighting Irish #Michigan State Spartans #Penn State Nittany Lions #Iowa Hawkeyes

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thecollegefootballguy · 6 years ago

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2018 Top Games of the Week: Week 7

Things are heating up! We’ve got a number of interesting games that will influence division and conference races, and once again there’s a trio of ranked vs ranked games that will influence the Playoff race.

The Top Ten Games of the Week

10. Duke 4-1 (1-0) at Georgia Tech 3-3 (1-2)

Alright, maybe this one isn’t a big deal. It’s one of those mid-level division games that will help us get a clearer picture of what’s going on. Duke started the season hot, but they got shut down by Virginia Tech two weeks ago which is throwing their Coastal candidacy in doubt. Georgia Tech was looking horrible until last week, when the Jackets completely demolished Louisville.

9. Texas Tech 3-2 (1-1) at TCU 3-2 (1-1)

Outside of the state of Kansas, the Big 12 race is open to everybody as far as I’m concerned. Texas Tech and TCU are overperforming and underperforming against their expectations respectively so far and both find themselves having to climb uphill to compete for the conference. Two league losses this early in the season will likely remove the loser from the conversation.

8. Michigan State 3-2 (1-1) at #8 Penn State 4-1 (1-1)

This was looking like an impactful game in the Big Ten East race until Michigan State went and lost to Northwestern. Penn State is the obvious favorite here but the Spartans have continually frustrated attempts by PSU, OSU, and UM to put them away.

7. #19 Colorado 5-0 (2-0) at USC 3-2 (2-1)

Will this game decide the PAC-12 South? Maybe. I don’t know. Colorado is undefeated but very much unchallenged at the same time. USC looks like they’re starting to cobble together a decent offense and with the division so devoid of truly good teams, the Trojans can definitely run away with it despite their poor early performances.

6. #16 Miami FL 5-1 (2-0) at Virginia 3-2 (1-1)

The ball is in Miami’s court. As long as they avoid upsets they should win the Coastal, but Miami doesn’t exactly go around avoiding upsets. Virginia is one of the pleasant surprises in a mostly dreary ACC season. The Cavaliers are ahead of schedule in gaining the solidity that we expect in Bronco Mendenhall teams.

5. #22 Texas A&M 4-2 (2-1) at South Carolina 3-2 (2-2)

Ignoring the SEC’s weird push to make this a rivalry series, this is an important game for both SEC divisions. A&M is in the middle of the pack in the West race and South Carolina holds a similar position in the East. For glory and a better bowl bid.

4. #10 UCF 5-0 (2-0) at Memphis 4-2 (1-2)

UCF is now a top ten team. The Knights are finally getting a semblance or respect befitting a squad that hasn’t lost a football game since 2016. Central Florida ventures out of state for the first time since Week 1 to face a schizophrenic Memphis squad. The Tigers have looked really good and really bad at different times this year. The whole G5 race hangs in the balance and it depends on which Memphis team takes the field.

3. #15 Wisconsin 4-1 (2-0) at #12 Michigan 5-1 (3-0)

This game feels like it should be higher, but we have a lot of good options at the top. Wisconsin is still far and away the favorite in the West division, but this road game will challenge the Badgers’ position. Michigan hasn’t been taken too seriously since their Week 1 loss to Notre Dame and I think that’s a big mistake. The Wolverines are playing like a real top ten team and can put some real pressure on the Big Ten race moving forward.

2. #2 Georgia 6-0 (4-0) at #13 LSU 5-1 (2-1)

Should this game be #1 on the list? Maybe. It’s a huge game between two of the SEC’s biggest brands with clear division, conference, and playoff ramifications. It’s Georgia’s biggest road test all season and the Bulldogs’ greatest threat to an undefeated regular season. LSU could jump right back into the SEC conversation with a win over UGA.

1. #7 Washington 5-1 (3-0) at #17 Oregon 4-1 (1-1)

Again, I can’t say this is a clear cut #1, but I think the stakes are the highest. If Washington loses this game, I think we can shut the door on the PAC-12 making the Playoff. The Huskies are the best team in the league but their unimpressive style of winning makes them look rather vulnerable, especially when they have to travel to a very motivated rival.

5 Group of 5 Games of the Week

5. Louisiana Tech 3-2 (1-1) at UTSA 3-3 (2-0)

Not that many people care, but Conference USA has some of the most interesting division races in all of college football. Most teams are still in the race and almost every game is important.

4. Middle Tennessee 3-2 (2-0) at FIU 3-2 (1-0)

Middle Tennessee cleared a big hurdle by beating Marshall last week, now the play host to another contender.

3. Boise State 3-2 (1-1) at Nevada 3-3 (1-1)

Earlier this year Boise State was looking like a real contender for the New Year’s Bowl, but now that time has passed. The Broncos can, however, still win the Mountain West. It would help to beat a cross-division rival.

2. Hawaii 6-1 (3-0) at BYU 3-3

One of those nice Western rivalry games with some interesting cultural history if you care about that. If not, we’ve got a Hawaii team that’s bowl eligible through seven games playing a Brigham Young team that has shown some very high upside. You’ve got a run ‘n shoot team that beats up on little guys with ease against a hard nosed “win in the trenches” team that has the potential to upset a top 10 team.

1. Appalachian State 3-1 (1-0) at Arkansas State 3-2 (0-1)

Look, this game is over, but it was played on Tuesday so I’m recusing myself from wrongdoing.

FCS Games of the Week

2. #21 Maine 3-2 (2-0) at #16 Rhode Island 4-1 (2-0)

With James Madison having lost a conference game, the CAA is now looking much more interesting. Both Maine and Rhode Island are scuffling with half the conference to make the Playoff and this game, like many other league matchups, will play a role.

3. #4 Eastern Washington 5-1 (3-0) at #13 Weber State 3-2 (1-1)

EWU is the class of the Big Sky, but Weber State is one of the serious contenders and can certainly knock off the Eagles at home.

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thecollegefootballguy · 4 years ago

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The Real 2020 Season: Week 1

Hey everybody, welcome to Week 1 of The Real 2020 Season! We’re imagining how things would have gone in the 2020 football season if COVID hadn’t ruined everything.

Week 0 was fun just because football was back on but it didn’t offer a whole lot. Week 1 is when things really get going. We have a big matchups featuring some blue bloods right off the bat. Of course this is balanced out by most other teams hosting bodybag games against scrub opponents from the G5 or the FCS. But hey, let’s look at the fun parts. There aren’t as many ranked games as other past Week 1′s, but football is being played so it’s all good.

If you want to check out my Week 0 post first click here.

The Rankings

Preseason AP Poll

1. Clemson 0-0 (0-0) 2. Ohio State 0-0 (0-0) 3. Alabama 0-0 (0-0) 4. Georgia 0-0 (0-0) 5. Oklahoma 0-0 (0-0) 6. LSU 0-0 (0-0) 7. Penn State 0-0 (0-0) 8. Florida 0-0 (0-0) 9. Oregon 0-0 (0-0) 10. Notre Dame 1-0 11. Auburn 0-0 (0-0) 12. Wisconsin 0-0 (0-0) 13. Texas A&M 0-0 (0-0) 14. Texas 0-0 (0-0) 15. Oklahoma State 0-0 (0-0) 16. Michigan 0-0 (0-0) 17. USC 0-0 (0-0) 18. North Carolina 0-0 (0-0) 19. Minnesota 0-0 (0-0) 20. Cincinnati 0-0 (0-0) 21. UCF 0-0 (0-0) 22. Utah 0-0 (0-0) 23. Iowa State 0-0 (0-0) 24. Iowa 0-0 (0-0) 25. Tennessee 0-0 (0-0)

We’re still working with the preseason AP poll so nothing changed since last week. The SEC and Big Ten are still well represented in the polls, and are followed by the Big 12. The ACC and PAC-12 only managed to fit in three teams each although Clemson being the #1 team certainly helps the ACC’s image. Notre Dame claims the #10 spot which feels pretty spot on for the Irish coming out of 2019.

The G5 is represented only by Cincinnati and UCF of the AAC. Pretty standard stuff for a preseason poll.

The Narrative

I wrote out a much more in-depth preseason 2020 narrative last week so check it out to get the big scoop. The short version is that the usual suspects are once again the most serious contenders. Alabama and Georgia are favored to win their divisions and once again and then duke it out for the SEC title. Ohio State is favored for the Big Ten ahead of PSU, Michigan, and Wisconsin, Oklahoma is the favorite in the Big 12, and Clemson winning the ACC shouldn’t even be a question. These five favorites from these four conferences will most likely make up the Playoff field, or at least 3 of the 4 spots. What can I say? We’ve been in a bit of a rut regarding putting new teams in the Playoff since that first 2014 season.

The PAC-12 is the only Power conference without a clear favorite and without a real clear path to the Playoff. The G5 of course will probably never be let into the Playoff but the AAC champ is once again favored to snag the auto-bid for the NY6. UCF is the money favorite based on the past several seasons but Cincinnati had a good showing in 2019 and is set to challenge the Knights.

The Games

Week 1 features several high profile matchups and a bunch of uninteresting bodybag games. I’ll list all of the games and then break down the big matchups.

Winning teams are highlighted in bold.

Austin Peay at #20 Cincinnati Rice at Houston Arkansas State at Memphis SMU at Texas State South Florida at #14 Texas Temple at Miami FL Southeastern Louisiana at Tulane Toledo at Tulsa #18 North Carolina at #21 UCF Syracuse at Boston College #1 Clemson at Georgia Tech Florida State vs West Virginia (Atlanta, GA) NC State at Louisville Wake Forest at Old Dominion Middle Tennessee at Duke Miami OH at Pittsburgh #4 Georgia vs Virginia (Atlanta, GA) Liberty at Virginia Tech Baylor vs Ole Miss (Houston, TX) South Dakota at #23 Iowa State New Hampshire at Kansas Buffalo at Kansas State Missouri State at #5 Oklahoma Oregon State at #15 Oklahoma State TCU at California Texas Tech at UTEP Indiana at #12 Wisconsin Towson at Maryland #16 Michigan at Washington Michigan State at Northwestern Bowling Green at #2 Ohio State Kent State at #7 Penn State Monmouth at Rutgers Illinois State at Illinois Northern Iowa at #24 Iowa Florida Atlantic at #19 Minnesota Purdue at Nebraska Charlotte at #25 Tennessee Jacksonville State at FIU Chattanooga at Western Kentucky Louisiana Tech at UNLV Houston Baptist at North Texas South Alabama at Southern Miss New Mexico State at UAB UTSA at #6 LSU Youngstown State at Akron North Carolina Central at Ohio Maine at Ball State San Jose State at Central Michigan Eastern Michigan at Kentucky Rhode Island at Northern Illinois Colgate at Western Michigan Duquesne at Air Force Georgia Southern at Boise State Colorado at Colorado State New Mexico at Mississippi State Washington State at Utah State Weber State at Wyoming UCLA at Hawaii Nevada at Arkansas Sacramento State at San Diego State North Dakota State at #9 Oregon William & Mary at Stanford Portland State at Arizona Northern Arizona at Arizona State #3 Alabama vs #17 USC (Arlington, TX) BYU at #22 Utah Eastern Washington at #8 Florida Central Arkansas at Missouri Coastal Carolina at South Carolina Mercer at Vanderbilt Nevada at Arkansas Alcorn State at #11 Auburn Abilene Christian at #13 Texas A&M Morgan State at Appalachian State Murray State at Georgia State Arkansas Pine-Bluff at Troy McNeese State at Louisiana Cal Poly at Louisiana-Monroe Bucknell at Army Massachusetts at Connecticut

Nobody came close to upsetting the Top 5, though the games weren’t all severe beatdowns either. #1 Clemson of course stomped rival Georgia Tech in Atlanta and #2 Ohio State and #5 Oklahoma handled their business against patsy opponents. #3 Alabama once again thoroughly torched #17 USC in Dallas. #4 Georgia beat Virginia in Atlanta but the Bulldogs’ offense didn’t exactly look promising.

The other kickoff games saw West Virginia defeating Florida State in the other Chick-fil-A matchup and Ole Miss edged out Baylor in Houston. Boy, don’t you wish both of those games were being played in 2015 and not 2020? The other ranked vs ranked game of the week featured #21 UCF outpacing #18 North Carolina in Orlando, it wasn’t unexpected but it’s still an important symbolic win for the Knights and for the AAC.

A few other games had consequential results for the Big Ten in particular. Indiana pulled off a shocking upset of #12 Wisconsin, a crippling blow for the Badgers who were once again the favorites to win the Big Ten West. Out West, #16 Michigan lost handily to Washington, likely ruining the Wolverines’ Playoff hopes.

More than a fair share of home teams won against easy opponents, it’s more or less a Week 1 tradition, but there is always intrigue and surprising results on a chalky week like this. Liberty scraped past Virginia Tech in Blacksburg, embarrassing the Hokies in their home opener. Buffalo beat Kansas State with surprising efficiency while Coastal Carolina gutted out a win over South Carolina in Columbia. As usual, a few FCS teams were able to dish out some damage. Jacksonville State beat FIU while Youngstown State was able to down rival Akron and keep their old travelling trophy, the Steel Tire.

A couple other rivalry games to note before moving on. #22 Utah was able to fend off rival BYU in another fierce chapter in the Holy War. AAC squads Houston and Memphis were able to shut down Rice and Arkansas State respectively in their regional rivalry matchups. Colorado travelled to Fort Collins for the first time since 1996 and beat their little brothers in the 92nd Rocky Mountain Showdown. Finally, a bad UConn team eked out a win against a worse UMass squad.

The Standings

There were only a few conference games played in Week 1, mostly in the ACC and Big Ten. We won’t see full conferences playing until at least Week 4 when the Big Ten, Big 12, and PAC-12 begin their 9-game league schedules. There isn’t much to say about the standings this early in the season, but then again it’s fun to see Nebraska leading the Big Ten West.

The Big Picture

Week 1 sometimes sees a few earth-shattering outcomes with all of the Kickoff Games and the odd crucial upset. That didn’t happen this year with so few high profile games. It’s not like Alabama curb-stomping USC was unexpected. Probably the most significant events were Michigan and Wisconsin losing to Washington and Indiana. That leaves Ohio State and Penn State as the only real Big Ten teams with a serious shot at the Playoff only a week into the season.

The New Rankings

Following Week 1 the AP Poll didn’t change a whole lot in the top 15 thanks to a very chalky week. Alabama’s win over USC helps the Tide leap over Ohio State into 2nd place but not yet to first because Clemson did of course completely humiliate their own P5 opponent. Wisconsin and North Carolina fall out of the rankings. USC’s loss to Alabama is more or less forgiven because, hey, basically everybody loses to the Tide so the Trojans only fall a few spots. Michigan nearly tumbled out of the poll but just barely cling on after falling 9 spots to #25. Washington and Indiana both climb into the polls, though of course the Huskies are treated with a bit more respect than the Hoosiers, whose presence is treated more like a novelty.

1. Clemson 1-0 (1-0) 2. Alabama 1-0 (0-0) 3. Ohio State 1-0 (0-0) 4. Georgia 1-0 (0-0) 5. Oklahoma 1-0 (0-0) 6. LSU 1-0 (0-0) 7. Penn State 1-0 (0-0) 8. Florida 1-0 (0-0) 9. Oregon 1-0 (0-0) 10. Notre Dame 1-0 11. Auburn 1-0 (0-0) 12. Texas A&M 1-0 (0-0) 13. Texas 1-0 (0-0) 14. Oklahoma State 1-0 (0-0) 15. Washington 1-0 (0-0) 16. UCF 1-0 (0-0) 17. Minnesota 1-0 (0-0) 18. Utah 1-0 (0-0) 19. Indiana 1-0 (1-0) 20. USC 0-1 (0-0) 21. Cincinnati 1-0 (0-0) 22. Iowa State 1-0 (0-0) 23. Iowa 1-0 (0-0) 24. Tennessee 1-0 (0-0) 25. Michigan 0-1 (0-0)

Week 1 is in the books. The 2020 college football season is finally under way! And don’t worry if this is somewhat less interesting than you expected one week in, Week 2 will be much more interesting! Stay tuned!

#college football #Clemson Tigers #Alabama Crimson Tide #Ohio State Buckeyes #Georgia Bulldogs #Oklahoma Sooners #LSU Tigers #Penn State Nittany Lions #Florida Gators #Oregon Ducks #Notre Dame Fighting Irish #West Virginia Mountaineers #Ole Miss Rebels #UCF Knights #Indiana Hoosiers #Washington Huskies #Utah Utes

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junker-town · 6 years ago

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Updated bowl projections, where the fun stuff is outside the CFP race

Here are picks for all 40 bowl games, including the College Football Playoff.

Week 12 wasn’t expected to be a shakeup Saturday, and boy, it wasn’t! For the eleventeenth week in a row, very little altered the Playoff race. But everything else, though?

Each week, I update a board of projected winners for every FBS game, tally up records, and guess what the Playoff committee and bowl committees would do with the results. Things get closer and closer to eventual accuracy as Selection Sunday nears, but more importantly, it’s some weekly fun!

Below, projections for all 40 2018 bowl games. A lot of these will change dramatically over the next month, so if you don’t like where your team is listed, I bet a few wins on the field will change things!

First, the College Football Playoff

Cotton (Arlington, Texas): No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Michigan

Orange (Miami): No. 2 Clemson vs. No. 3 Notre Dame

Championship (Santa Clara, California): No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 2 Clemson

This part’s easy for now and has been mostly the same for weeks. Ohio State beating Michigan would probably just change the name of the team that loses to Bama. Most other things wouldn’t matter. Georgia beating Bama would race hell from coast to coast. For now, the madness is not at this level.

Next: the rest of the New Year’s Six

Sugar (New Orleans): Oklahoma vs. Georgia

Rose (Pasadena, California): Ohio State vs. Washington State

Peach (Atlanta): Florida vs. UCF

Fiesta (Glendale, Arizona): LSU vs. Penn State

OHHHH, here’s the silly stuff. (Update: Tuesday’s rankings reveal made Florida and Penn State look a bit sturdier than I’d expected here.)

I think almost all of these teams are locked in or close to it, pending upsets. But who would you have for the last at-large spot? Here are the best records we could be looking at simultaneously while deciding which team should face LSU (since, if Florida’s 9-3, you gotta have the Gators play UCF):

9-3 Kentucky (nope, since nobody wants an all-SEC NY6 game we can avoid)

9-3 NC State

9-3 Penn State

9-3 Syracuse

9-4 Texas

12-1 Utah State

8-3 West Virginia

There’s a case for Texas, which would have the highest-ranked win and have gone 1-1 against the Big 12 champ in this scenario. But a four-loss at-large (and not a contracted auto-bid) is a real bridge to cross.

Penn State only had one really bad loss, and it was to the Big Ten leader. PSU’s won several beatdowns, including one over Pitt that could end up being over a ranked win. I don’t know. Sure. Don’t look at me!

And now, everything else

Citrus (Orlando): Wisconsin vs. Kentucky

Outback (Tampa): Michigan State vs. Missouri

Gator (Jacksonville): Northwestern vs. South Carolina

Holiday (San Diego): Iowa vs. Utah

Liberty (Memphis): Oklahoma State vs. Auburn

Military (Annapolis, Maryland): Cincinnati vs. Miami

Sun (El Paso): Boston College vs. Cal

Belk (Charlotte): Georgia Tech vs. Tennessee

Alamo (San Antonio): Texas vs. Washington

Arizona (Tucson): Utah State vs. ULM

Camping World (Orlando): NC State vs. West Virginia

Music City (Nashville): Pitt vs. Texas A&M

Texas (Houston): Iowa State vs. Mississippi State

Pinstripe (New York City): Syracuse vs. Purdue

Independence (Shreveport, Louisiana): Duke vs. Southern Miss*

Cheez-It (Phoenix): Texas Tech vs. Stanford

Quick Lane (Detroit): BYU* vs. WMU*

SERVPRO (Dallas): Arkansas State* vs. North Texas

Redbox (Santa Clara, California): Nevada* vs. Arizona State

Hawaii: FAU vs. Hawaii

Dollar General (Mobile): Buffalo vs. Georgia Southern

Armed Forces (Fort Worth): SMU vs. Army*

Birmingham: Houston vs. UAB*

Potato (Boise): Toledo vs. San Diego State

Bahamas: FIU vs. NIU

Gasparilla (Tampa): USF vs. Virginia

Frisco (Texas): Tulane vs. Ohio

Boca Raton: Memphis vs. MTSU

New Orleans: Louisiana Tech vs. Troy

Camellia (Montgomery, Alabama): EMU vs. Appalachian State

Las Vegas: Fresno State vs. Oregon

Cure (Orlando): Temple vs. UL Lafayette

New Mexico (Albuquerque): Marshall vs. Boise State

* = Taking another conference’s unfilled bid.

Things cleared up a bit this week. Last week, I had a handful of eligible teams with no bowl, but this time, only Miami (Ohio) is left out. Next week will clear things up further, with Baylor-Texas Tech, Tennessee-Vanderbilt, and Purdue-Indiana set up as ELIGIBILITY DECIDERS.

As always, remember bowl bids are not strictly based on merit. A few conferences have rules that prevent bowls from taking teams with clearly lesser records over more deserving teams, but bowls mostly care about butts in seats. If you beat a bigger program that’s closer to a bowl both of you want, you’re not guaranteed to get it.

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junker-town · 6 years ago

Text

Updated bowl projections, where the fun stuff is outside the CFP race

Here are picks for all 40 bowl games, including the College Football Playoff.

Week 12 wasn’t expected to be a shakeup Saturday, and boy, it wasn’t! For the eleventeenth week in a row, very little altered the Playoff race. But everything else, though?

First, the College Football Playoff

Cotton (Arlington, TX): No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Michigan

Orange (Miami): No. 2 Clemson vs. No. 3 Notre Dame

Championship (Santa Clara, CA): No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 2 Clemson

Next: the rest of the New Year’s Six

Sugar (New Orleans): Oklahoma vs. Georgia

Rose (Pasadena, CA): Ohio State vs. Washington State

Peach (Atlanta): Florida vs. UCF

Fiesta (Glendale, AZ): LSU vs. Penn State

OHHHH, here’s the silly stuff.

9-3 Kentucky (nope, since nobody wants an all-SEC NY6 game we can avoid)

8-3 NC State

9-3 Penn State

9-3 Syracuse

9-4 Texas

12-1 Utah State

8-3 West Virginia

And now, everything else

Citrus (Orlando): Wisconsin vs. Kentucky

Outback (Tampa): Michigan State vs. Missouri

Gator (Jacksonville): Northwestern vs. South Carolina

Holiday (San Diego): Iowa vs. Utah

Liberty (Memphis): Oklahoma State vs. Auburn

Military (Annapolis, MD): Cincinnati vs. Miami

Sun (El Paso): Boston College vs. Cal

Belk (Charlotte): Georgia Tech vs. Tennessee

Alamo (San Antonio): Texas vs. Washington

Arizona (Tucson): Utah State vs. ULM

Camping World (Orlando): NC State vs. West Virginia

Music City (Nashville): Pitt vs. Texas A&M

Texas (Houston): Iowa State vs. Mississippi State

Pinstripe (New York City): Syracuse vs. Purdue

Independence (Shreveport, LA): Duke vs. Southern Miss*

Cheez-It (Phoenix): Texas Tech vs. Stanford

Quick Lane (Detroit): BYU* vs. WMU*

SERVPRO (Dallas): Arkansas State* vs. North Texas

Redbox (Santa Clara, CA): Nevada* vs. Arizona State

Hawaii: FAU vs. Hawaii

Dollar General (Mobile): Buffalo vs. Georgia Southern

Armed Forces (Fort Worth): SMU vs. Army*

Birmingham: Houston vs. UAB*

Potato (Boise): Toledo vs. San Diego State

Bahamas: FIU vs. NIU

Gasparilla (Tampa): USF vs. Virginia

Frisco (TX): Tulane vs. Ohio

Boca Raton: Memphis vs. MTSU

New Orleans: Louisiana Tech vs. Troy

Camellia (Montgomery, AL): EMU vs. Appalachian State

Las Vegas: Fresno State vs. Oregon

Cure (Orlando): Temple vs. UL Lafayette

New Mexico (Albuquerque): Marshall vs. Boise State

* = Taking another conference’s unfilled bid.

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junker-town · 6 years ago

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Ranking college football’s Week 9 final scores by surprising-ness

There won’t be much change at the top of the rankings, but Week 9 packed in some surprises all the same.

Following a couple of pretty wild weeks, we were due a bit of a dud, at least as far as shake-ups at the top of the rankings were concerned. In Week 9 of the 2018 college football season, three of the top five teams didn’t even play, and only two of the top 14 lost — No. 6 Texas to Oklahoma State and No. 9 Florida to No. 7 Georgia.

That’s not to say there wasn’t silliness. Kentucky stole a game in Columbia, Washington State out-lasted Stanford in the final 30 seconds, and plenty of teams near the bottom of the AP top 25 lost. But by the standard set in recent weeks, this was a calmer weekend.

Let’s look back at Week 9 action by looking at the difference between projection and reality. S&P+ had another excellent week, going 57 percent against the spread to stay at 55 percent ATS for the season. Its absolute error — the average difference between projected and actual scoring margin — in FBS vs. FBS games was a solid 12.9 points per game (anything below 13 or so is solid, and anything below 12 is tremendous).

Whether the numbers were dialed in or not, however, there are always surprises. Using the S&P+ projections as a guide, let’s look at which games played out as expected and which ones very, very much did not.

(Rankings listed below are from the most recent AP poll.)

Right on (projection and reality within 3 points of each other)

Matthew O’Haren-USA TODAY Sports

UAB 19, UTEP 0 (projected margin: UAB by 19.2)

No. 17 Penn State 30, No. 18 Iowa 24 (projected margin: PSU by 5.4)

Iowa out-gained PSU by 38 yards (primarily by running 24 more plays), scored twice on safeties, recovered all four of the game’s fumbles, and scored on a fourth-quarter pick six. It’s actually kind of an upset that PSU didn’t get upset here.

Coastal Carolina 37, Georgia State 34 (projected margin: Coastal by 3.9)

Nebraska 45, Bethune-Cookman 9 (projected margin: NU by 34.7)

No. 3 Notre Dame 44, Navy 22 (projected margin: ND by 23.5)

No. 14 Washington State 41, No. 24 Stanford 38 (projected margin: Wazzu by 1.5)

Texas State 27, NMSU 20 (projected margin: TXST by 5.4)

Virginia 31, North Carolina 21 (projected margin: UVA by 11.6)

That’s ACC Coastal favorite Virginia, thank you very much.

Boise State 48, Air Force 38 (projected margin: BSU by 11.9)

Akron 17, CMU 10 (projected margin: Akron by 4.7)

Mostly on (3 to 7 points)

Chris Nicoll-USA TODAY Sports

NIU 7, BYU 6 (projected margin: BYU by 2.4)

Ew.

Fresno State 50, Hawaii 20 (projected margin: FS by 26.3)

Oklahoma State 38, No. 6 Texas 35 (projected margin: OSU by 6.8)

South Carolina 27, Tennessee 24 (projected margin: SC by 7.0)

No. 12 Kentucky 15, Missouri 14 (projected margin: Mizzou by 3.4)

UL-Lafayette 47, Arkansas State 43 (projected margin: ASU by 0.9)

Minnesota 38, Indiana 31 (projected margin: Gophers by 2.1)

UMass 22, UConn 17 (projected margin: UMass by 10.7)

Cincinnati 26, SMU 20 (projected margin: Cincy by 12.7)

Nevada 28, SDSU 24 (projected margin: SDSU by 3.0)

Nevada, by the way, has played three straight strong games: a near-upset of Boise, an easy win over Hawaii, and now this. The Wolf Pack are 5-4 and will be favored in each of the next three games. Well done, Jay Norvell.

A little off (7 to 17 points)

Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports

North Texas 41, Rice 17 (projected margin: UNT by 31.3)

Iowa State 40, Texas Tech 31 (projected margin: ISU by 0.9)

Arizona State 38, USC 35 (projected margin: USC by 5.1)

Nothing like a game that features two punt return scores, two long scores in the final two minutes, a 24-0 run by the winning team, and a 21-0 run by the losing team...

Tulane 24, Tulsa 17 (projected margin: Tulsa by 1.9)

No. 8 Oklahoma 51, Kansas State 14 (projected margin: OU by 27.9)

Wyoming 34, Colorado State 21 (projected margin: UW by 3.2)

Troy 38, South Alabama 17 (projected margin: Troy by 11.2)

Syracuse 51, No. 22 NC State 41 (projected margin: NCST by 1.1)

Syracuse hasn’t played well in November under Dino Babers, so the Orange came up with a novel way of achieving bowl eligibility this time around: complete it before November! They’re 6-2 and would be contenders for the ACC title game if they weren’t in the wrong damn division (or if divisions didn’t exist).

Michigan State 23, Purdue 13 (projected margin: Purdue by 1.3)

East Lansing: where fun things (like Purdue’s thoughts of a Big Ten West title) go to perish.

Louisiana Tech 21, FAU 13 (projected margin: FAU by 3.7)

No. 7 Georgia 36, No. 9 Florida 17 (projected margin: UGA by 6.3)

Charlotte 20, Southern Miss 17 (projected margin: USM by 9.9)

Mississippi State 28, No. 16 Texas A&M 13 (projected margin: MSU by 2.0)

Kansas 27, TCU 26 (projected margin: TCU by 12.1)

Cal 12, No. 15 Washington 10 (projected margin: UW by 11.7)

Houston 57, No. 21 USF 36 (projected margin: UH by 5.7)

San Jose State 50, UNLV 37 (projected margin: UNLV by 2.6)

Maryland 63, Illinois 33 (projected margin: UM by 13.5)

The last two games for Maryland’s offense: zero points and 115 total yards (2.95 per play) against Iowa and 63 points and 712 total yards (10.32 per play) against the Illini. Quite the lurch.

Pitt 54, Duke 45 (projected margin: Duke by 7.7)

Way off (17-28 points)

BC 27, Miami 14 (projected margin: Miami by 5.1)

Vanderbilt 45, Arkansas 31 (projected margin: Arkansas by 4.5)

Chad Morris’ best shot at a 2018 SEC win just fell by the wayside.

No. 23 Utah 41, UCLA 10 (projected margin: Utah by 12.3)

FIU 38, WKU 17 (projected margin: FIU by 2)

Army 37, EMU 22 (projected margin: EMU by 4.5)

Wake Forest 56, Louisville 35 (projected margin: UL by 2.6)

Revenge of the Wakey-Leaks.

Oregon State 41, Colorado 34 (projected margin: CU by 17.2)

Utah State 61, New Mexico 19 (projected margin: USU by 16.7)

Utah State will probably be ranked for just its third game ever this coming week, when the Aggies head to Hawaii. Here’s to hoping they handle their status better than Appalachian State did.

Northwestern 31, No. 20 Wisconsin 17 (projected margin: UW by 11.3)

Ohio 52, Ball State 14 (projected margin: Ohio by 12.2)

Georgia Tech 49, Virginia Tech 28 (projected margin: VT by 4.9)

Way, way off (more than 28 points)

MTSU 51, ODU 17 (projected margin: MTSU by 4.8)

No. 2 Clemson 59, Florida State 10 (projected margin: Clemson by 19.1)

Clemson began the game with three punts and didn’t score in the final 10 minutes, and the Tigers still put up 59.

Toledo 51, WMU 24 (projected margin: WMU by 4.0)

It had been a bad month for the Rockets, but they just inserted themselves back into the MAC West race.

Georgia Southern 34, No. 25 Appalachian State 14 (projected margin: App State by 11.6)

App State was ranked for the first time, had already lost its star running back, and lost its starting QB early in the game. And Georgia Southern had no interest in feeling sorry for the Mountaineers.

Georgia Southern is heading to 7-1 (only loss was Clemson) and can now claim a ranked team (the first to visit Statesboro)... maybe they’re become the #FunBelt team that should be ranked. #APPvsGASO pic.twitter.com/qnXzAFhuNd

— RedditCFB (@RedditCFB) October 26, 2018

Statesboro is fun as hell when it’s got a reason to be.

No. 13 WVU 58, Baylor 24 (projected margin: WVU by 10.9)

To say the least, West Virginia responded well to the setback loss to Iowa State.

Arizona 44, No. 19 Oregon 15 (projected margin: UO by 6.3)

34-24 in 2007, 42-16 in 2013, and now this. Oregon’s recent history is dotted with really, really disappointing trips to Tucson.

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