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theliberaltony · 6 years ago

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via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

How much can we learn from early primary polls? Back in 2011, FiveThirtyEight Editor-in-chief Nate Silver set out to answer this question and found that early national polling is at least somewhat predictive of who will win the nomination, especially when the results are adjusted for each candidate’s name recognition.

Now, eight years later, FiveThirtyEight has collected more polling data, plus there are two more presidential election cycles — 2012 and 2016 — to look at, so we felt it was time to update the series. In the first two installments, we’re just going to look at what the polls say for competitive presidential primaries for both parties, starting with early primary polls from 1972, which is widely thought of as the start of the modern primary era. This first installment runs through 1996 — analyzing primary polls for seven presidential elections is enough ground to cover in one article — and the next installment will start with the 2000 presidential primaries and run up through the 2016 presidential primaries.

As for how this series we will work, we took all surveys from the calendar year before each election — so for the 2016 presidential primaries, that means all polls from 2015 — and then split them by whether they occurred in the first half of the year (January through June) or the second half (July through December). In the 2011 version of this series, Nate only looked at polls from the first half of the year before the election, but we decided to include the second half of the year as well because this helped us capture how a candidate’s standing changed during the course of the year and let us include candidates who jumped into the race on the later side. We also included anyone we had polling data for, no matter how likely or unlikely they were to run or win.

Our tables in this series include two key metrics that help us better understand the primary field and how things changed throughout the year we’re examining. The first is an average of each candidate’s (or potential candidate’s) numbers in all the polls for that half of the year — candidates were counted as having zero percent support in any poll they did not appear in.1

The second is an average of each candidate’s standing in the polls that is adjusted for how well-known the person was at the time. To do this, we divided a candidate’s polling average by their level of name recognition, which helped us identify folks who might have had a small national profile but were doing relatively well among voters who knew about them.2 But because pollsters aren’t consistent, our methods of estimating name recognition had to be treated as rough estimates. To reflect that inherent imprecision, we sorted candidates onto a somewhat subjective five-tier scale to sum up their level of fame.3 We combined polling averages with a few educated guesses to produce the name-recognition scores. For example, a candidate like Hubert Humphrey in 1972, who had been the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee in 1968 while serving as vice president, would almost certainly be extremely well-known, while someone who had lost the nomination to Humphrey in ’68 might not be as well-known but would still be more widely recognized than someone bursting onto the national scene for the first time. These name-recognition scores are represented as five square boxes in the table below (more black boxes means higher levels of name recognition).

And it just so happens that in the first primary we’re looking at, the 1972 Democratic primary, we have an example of how our adjusted polling average can reveal a potential winner. Take Sen. George McGovern, who was polling at around 4 percent in the first half of 1971. He wasn’t very well-known, but he was polling relatively well among those who had heard of him, so his adjusted polling average for that same six-month period was 6 points higher, at 10 percent.

The 1972 Democratic primary field

Candidates’ polling averages in the first half and second half of the year before the presidential primaries, plus an adjustment for name recognition

Name recognition Poll Avg. Adj. poll avg. Candidate 1st half 2nd half 1st 2nd 1st 2nd Ed Muskie 32.3% 24.5% 40.4% 30.6% Ted Kennedy 23.5 18.2 29.4 22.7 Hubert Humphrey 23.5 18.8 23.5 18.8 George McGovern 4.0 5.7 10.0 9.4 John Lindsay 4.4 6.7 7.3 8.3 Scoop Jackson 0.4 2.8 2.0 7.1 Eugene McCarthy 2.4 5.5 3.0 6.9 Birch Bayh 0.2 0.3 1.0 1.7 Harold Hughes 0.2 0.2 1.0 0.8 Samuel Yorty — — 0.3 — 0.6 Bill Proxmire 0.4 0.2 1.0 0.4 Wilbur Mills 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 J. William Fulbright 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3

We included everyone we had polling data for, no matter how likely or unlikely they were to run.

Source: Polls

However, he trailed Sens. Humphrey, Ed Muskie and Ted Kennedy — the former two had made up the 1968 Democratic ticket, and the latter was … well, a Kennedy. But McGovern still managed to win the nomination — that’s why he’s bolded in the table above — in part because he had a good understanding of how the reformed nominating process worked. After all, he led the committee that wrote the new primary rules after the calamitous 1968 Democratic convention, where party bosses helped Humphrey get the nomination even though he had not contested any of the primaries. And even though McGovern was crushed by President Richard Nixon in the 1972 general election, Democrats kept their new primary rules. McGovern would not be the last Democrat to become the nominee despite low early polling numbers.

We’re skipping the 1972 GOP primaries because Nixon was running for re-election and faced no serious challenger from within his party — remember, we’re only interested in competitive nomination processes. So moving on to 1976, the Democratic field was comparable to 2020 in that it was crowded and support was fragmented. In the first and second halves of 1975, four or five potential Democratic candidates averaged 10 percent or more in our adjusted polling average. But three of them — Humphrey, Kennedy and Muskie — didn’t wind up running. Segregationist Alabama Gov. George Wallace was the nominal frontrunner in those early polls, but he was a divisive choice for obvious reasons, which left things wide open for a dark horse candidate. And in the end, one of the least-known candidates — former Georgia Gov. Jimmy Carter — claimed the nomination. The early primary polls don’t really capture Carter’s success, but he did set up shop in Iowa, which voted first, and his strong showing there gave his campaign a boost that helped him gain enough momentum to win the nomination. It also cemented Iowa as a premiere early state alongside New Hampshire.

The 1976 Democratic primary field

Candidates’ polling averages in the first half and second half of the year before the presidential primaries, plus an adjustment for name recognition

Name recognition Poll Avg. Adj. poll avg. Candidate 1st half 2nd half 1st 2nd 1st 2nd George Wallace 19.2% 20.0% 19.2% 20.0% Scoop Jackson 10.7 11.0 17.8 18.3 Hubert Humphrey 15.3 16.0 15.3 16.0 Ed Muskie 8.3 10.0 10.4 12.5 George McGovern 7.8 9.5 7.8 9.5 Birch Bayh 1.0 2.0 2.5 5.0 Lloyd Bentsen 2.0 0.8 10.0 3.8 Fred Harris 1.0 0.8 5.0 3.8 Jerry Brown 0.7 1.5 1.7 3.8 Jimmy Carter 0.8 0.5 4.2 2.5 Mo Udall 1.7 1.0 4.2 2.5 Frank Church 0.5 1.0 1.3 2.5 Sargent Shriver — — 1.5 — 1.9 Ted Kennedy — 10.3 — 12.9 — Julian Bond — 2.3 — 5.8 — John Glenn — 1.7 — 2.8 — John Lindsay — 1.7 — 2.8 — Adlai Stevenson III — 1.0 — 1.7 —

We included everyone we had polling data for, no matter how likely or unlikely they were to run.

Source: Polls

The 2020 Democratic race could be primed for a similar upset. The polls are currently split between two early frontrunners — still undeclared former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders — and it’s not yet clear if they will continue to sit atop the leaderboard, effectively blocking lesser-known candidates, or if their lead over the rest of the field will shrink as other candidates garner support, which could make the Democratic field look as wide-open as it did in 1976.

As for the GOP in 1976, the party had two clear frontrunners from the start. President Gerald Ford and challenger Ronald Reagan battled all the way to the national GOP convention, where Ford narrowly edged out the former California governor. The 1976 Republican primary marked the start of a streak of early polling frontrunners winning the nomination.

The 1976 Republican primary field

Candidates’ polling averages in the first half and second half of the year before the presidential primaries, plus an adjustment for name recognition

Name recognition Poll Avg. Adj. poll avg. Candidate 1st half 2nd half 1st 2nd 1st 2nd Gerald Ford 36.5% 46.5% 36.5% 46.5% Ronald Reagan 21.9 34.7 27.3 43.3 Barry Goldwater 8.0 4.7 10.0 5.8 Nelson Rockefeller 8.3 3.0 8.3 3.0 Charles Percy 6.0 1.5 10.0 2.5 Mark Hatfield 1.4 0.8 3.4 2.1 Howard Baker 5.8 1.2 9.6 1.9 Elliot Richardson 3.5 1.0 5.8 1.7 James Buckley 0.5 0.7 1.3 1.7 John Connally 0.5 0.8 0.6 1.0 Edward Brooke — 1.0 — 2.5 — William Milliken — 0.5 — 2.5 — Bill Brock — 0.3 — 1.3 — Dan Evans — 0.3 — 1.3 —

We included everyone we had polling data for, no matter how likely or unlikely they were to run.

Source: Polls

Four years later in 1980, the early national surveys had the incumbent president, Democrat Jimmy Carter, trailing badly against Sen. Kennedy, who had finally decided to run. Based on our data, Kennedy holds the dubious distinction of being the candidate with the highest adjusted polling average to not win a presidential nomination, at least for the 1972 to 1996 period. In the end, Carter was renominated, but he lost the general to Reagan.

The 1980 Democratic primary field

Candidates’ polling averages in the first half and second half of the year before the presidential primaries, plus an adjustment for name recognition

Name recognition Poll Avg. Adj. poll avg. Candidate 1st half 2nd half 1st 2nd 1st 2nd Ted Kennedy 46.8% 49.2% 46.8% 49.2% Jimmy Carter 31.7 36.2 31.7 36.2 Jerry Brown 14.1 7.9 23.6 13.2 George McGovern 0.6 0.3 0.7 0.4 Walter Mondale 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 Scoop Jackson 0.4 0.2 0.7 0.3 Frank Church 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 Daniel P. Moynihan 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 Mo Udall 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1

We included everyone we had polling data for, no matter how likely or unlikely they were to run.

Source: Polls

Reagan’s nomination in 1980 marked another GOP contest won by the early frontrunner, but it also started a trend of the Republican runner-up winning the GOP nomination in the party’s next competitive primary cycle. His principal foe was former CIA Director George H.W. Bush, who was relatively unknown in the year prior to the primaries. Bush advanced from about 4 percent to 11 percent in our adjusted polling average from the first half to the second half of 1979, and even though he beat out Reagan to win the Iowa caucuses, Reagan went on to win the nomination (although it wasn’t entirely a bust for Bush, as Reagan did make him vice president).

The 1980 Republican primary field

Candidates’ polling averages in the first half and second half of the year before the presidential primaries, plus an adjustment for name recognition

Name recognition Poll Avg. Adj. poll avg. Candidate 1st half 2nd half 1st 2nd 1st 2nd Ronald Reagan 34.3% 37.3% 34.3% 37.3% Howard Baker 13.1 15.0 21.8 25.1 John Connally 10.2 12.8 12.7 16.0 Gerald Ford 19.3 12.3 19.3 12.3 George H.W. Bush 1.5 4.5 3.8 11.4 John Anderson 1.2 1.3 6.0 6.3 Phil Crane 1.0 1.0 5.0 5.2 Bob Dole 2.3 2.4 3.9 4.0 Charles Percy 1.2 0.9 3.0 2.3 James Thompson 0.3 0.4 1.4 2.1 Alexander Haig 0.4 0.8 1.1 2.1 Elliot Richardson 0.3 0.7 0.7 1.8 William Simon — — 0.3 — 1.7 Jesse Helms — — 0.3 — 1.3 Jack Kemp 0.7 0.2 3.6 0.8 Larry Pressler — — 0.2 — 0.8 Lowell Weicker — 0.9 — 4.3 — Robert Ray — 0.2 — 1.1 —

We included everyone we had polling data for, no matter how likely or unlikely they were to run.

Source: Polls

Reagan sought re-election in 1984, and to face him Democrats nominated their early polls leader — former Vice President Walter Mondale. This marked the only time between 1972 and 1996 that the Democrats nominated someone who led in the raw polling average a year before the primary, although he still had to sort things out at the convention against his main opponents, Sen. Gary Hart and civil rights leader Jesse Jackson.

The 1984 Democratic primary field

Candidates’ polling averages in the first half and second half of the year before the presidential primaries, plus an adjustment for name recognition

Name recognition Poll Avg. Adj. poll avg. Candidate 1st half 2nd half 1st 2nd 1st 2nd Walter Mondale 33.8% 40.1% 33.8% 40.1% John Glenn 24.3 24.7 30.4 30.9 Alan Cranston 4.7 5.3 11.7 13.1 Reubin Askew 1.4 1.9 6.9 9.6 Jesse Jackson 4.0 7.6 5.0 9.5 Gary Hart 3.0 2.6 7.4 6.5 George McGovern — — 4.5 — 5.6 Ernest Hollings 0.9 1.0 4.6 5.1 Ted Kennedy 2.1 1.8 2.1 1.8 Bill Bradley — 0.7 — 1.7 — Daniel P. Moynihan — 0.3 — 0.8 — Mo Udall — 0.3 — 0.8 —

We included everyone we had polling data for, no matter how likely or unlikely they were to run.

Source: Polls

In 1988, Democrats returned to form by not nominating the early frontrunner, and instead picked Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis. Yet our adjusted polling average indicated Dukakis was a lot stronger than early surveys suggested, as he enjoyed a fair bit of support while being relatively unknown. It didn’t hurt him that Hart, who was campaigning again and one of the early frontrunners, was undone by an extramarital affair. While Dukakis went on to clinch the Democratic nomination, he lost in the general election.

The 1988 Democratic primary field

Candidates’ polling averages in the first half and second half of the year before the presidential primaries, plus an adjustment for name recognition

Name recognition Poll Avg. Adj. poll avg. Candidate 1st half 2nd half 1st 2nd 1st 2nd Michael Dukakis 7.5% 11.3% 37.6% 28.2% Jesse Jackson 14.5 18.0 18.1 22.5 Paul Simon 4.2 7.5 20.8 18.7 Al Gore 3.5 6.5 17.5 16.2 Gary Hart 14.3 12.7 17.8 12.7 Dick Gephardt 4.5 4.4 22.5 11.0 Bruce Babbitt 2.2 2.0 11.0 10.1 Mario Cuomo 6.1 3.5 15.3 8.8 Pat Schroeder 0.1 1.3 0.3 3.2 Joe Biden 2.4 1.3 11.8 3.1 Ted Kennedy — — 1.3 — 1.6 Sam Nunn 1.3 0.2 6.4 0.8 Bill Bradley 0.9 0.3 2.2 0.8 Bill Clinton — 0.4 — 2.0 — Chuck Robb — 0.4 — 2.0 — Dale Bumpers — 0.2 — 1.1 — Lee Iacocca — 0.8 — 0.9 —

We included everyone we had polling data for, no matter how likely or unlikely they were to run.

Source: Polls

Opposing Dukakis in 1988 was George H.W. Bush, who had served eight years as Reagan’s vice president — yet another GOP runner-up who went on to win the next open primary. Bush also led most early polling, with Sen. Bob Dole in second. And while Dole did win the Iowa caucuses, Bush recovered in New Hampshire and won most contests after that. But this wouldn’t be the last Republicans saw of Dole; he would get his shot at the presidency later on.

The 1988 Republican primary field

Candidates’ polling averages in the first half and second half of the year before the presidential primaries, plus an adjustment for name recognition

Name recognition Poll Avg. Adj. poll avg. Candidate 1st half 2nd half 1st 2nd 1st 2nd George H.W. Bush 37.0% 42.9% 37.0% 42.9% Bob Dole 22.0 23.3 27.5 29.1 Jack Kemp 8.5 7.1 21.3 17.9 Pete du Pont 1.7 2.2 8.4 11.1 Pat Robertson 4.1 6.0 10.2 10.0 Alexander Haig 4.3 4.7 7.1 5.9 Paul Laxalt 1.6 0.1 7.8 0.7 Jeane Kirkpatrick 0.6 0.2 1.6 0.5 Howard Baker — 2.3 — 3.8 — Thomas Kean — 0.8 — 3.8 — Pat Buchanan — 0.1 — 0.2 —

We included everyone we had polling data for, no matter how likely or unlikely they were to run.

Source: Polls

In 1992, Bush became the third president to fend off a notable primary challenger since 1972. Initially, Bush’s approval rating had been high — close to 90 percent after the Gulf War. But a faltering economy and broken promise not to raise taxes weakened Bush and helped spur a challenge from the right in the form of pundit Pat Buchanan. We only have data for the second half of 1991 — at first it looked unlikely that Bush would face a serious challenge, so pollsters weren’t asking about the Republican primaries much — but we can see that despite Bush’s massive lead in the polls, Buchanan’s position was more robust than it looked. Even though his name recognition was low, those who did have an opinion of him seemed to support him. Bush won the nomination, but Buchanan embarrassed him by grabbing 37 percent of the vote in New Hampshire, and ultimately, Bush lost re-election.

The 1992 Republican primary field

Candidates’ polling averages in the first half and second half of the year before the presidential primaries, plus an adjustment for name recognition

Name recognition Poll Avg. Adj. poll avg. Candidate 1st half 2nd half 1st 2nd 1st 2nd George H.W. Bush — — 59.4% — 59.4% Pat Buchanan — — 9.8 — 24.5 Howard Baker — — 3.6 — 6.0 Jack Kemp — — 3.2 — 5.3 David Duke — — 2.8 — 3.5 Dick Cheney — — 2.6 — 3.3 Dan Quayle — — 2.0 — 2.0 Phil Gramm — — 0.4 — 1.0 Pete Wilson — — 0.2 — 0.5

We included everyone we had polling data for, no matter how likely or unlikely they were to run.

Source: Polls

Facing Bush in the general election was Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton, who was still not that well-known when he announced his run for president in October 1991. Nonetheless, Clinton’s adjusted polling average improved substantially in the year leading up to the primaries. He started at around 3 percent in the first six months of 1991 and jumped to about 19 percent in the second half of the year. New York Governor Mario Cuomo led the polls, but at the last minute decided against running, and Clinton went on to defeat former Sen. Paul Tsongas and former Gov. Jerry Brown for the nomination.

The 1992 Democratic primary field

Candidates’ polling averages in the first half and second half of the year before the presidential primaries, plus an adjustment for name recognition

Name recognition Poll Avg. Adj. poll avg. Candidate 1st half 2nd half 1st 2nd 1st 2nd Mario Cuomo 20.0% 22.7% 33.3% 37.8% Jerry Brown — — 13.0 — 21.7 Doug Wilder 2.5 7.8 6.3 19.5 Bill Clinton 1.3 7.4 3.1 18.6 Bob Kerrey 1.3 5.6 3.1 14.1 Tom Harkin 1.8 5.3 4.4 13.2 Paul Tsongas 0.8 3.5 3.8 8.8 Jesse Jackson 10.5 4.1 10.5 4.1 Al Gore 8.8 0.9 14.6 1.5 Dave McCurdy 0.0 0.3 0.0 1.3 Jay Rockefeller 1.3 0.6 2.1 1.0 Lloyd Bentsen 10.0 0.8 16.7 0.9 Eugene McCarthy — — 0.4 — 0.6 Larry Agran — — 0.0 — 0.2 Dick Gephardt — 6.5 — 10.8 — Sam Nunn — 5.3 — 8.8 — Bill Bradley — 3.3 — 5.4 — Chuck Robb — 1.0 — 2.5 — George McGovern — 2.0 — 2.5 — George Mitchell — 1.0 — 2.5 — Stephen Solarz — 0.3 — 1.3 —

We included everyone we had polling data for, no matter how likely or unlikely they were to run.

Source: Polls

In 1996, the GOP chose Dole to face off against Clinton during his re-election bid, making Dole the third runner-up since 1976 to win the GOP nomination at the next opportunity. Dole seemed to have an insurmountable edge in the Republican primary polls, but he still had a rough start — he barely defeated Buchanan in Iowa and then lost to him in New Hampshire before recovering to win most other contests. Dole went on to lose in the general against Clinton.

The 1996 Republican primary field

Candidates’ polling averages in the first half and second half of the year before the presidential primaries, plus an adjustment for name recognition

Name recognition Poll Avg. Adj. poll avg. Candidate 1st half 2nd half 1st 2nd 1st 2nd Bob Dole 46.2% 44.0% 57.8% 55.0% Phil Gramm 11.1 8.6 18.5 14.3 Colin Powell 5.2 8.6 6.5 10.7 Pat Buchanan 5.6 6.6 7.0 8.2 Lamar Alexander 3.1 2.9 7.7 7.4 Steve Forbes — — 2.7 — 6.6 Richard Lugar 1.8 2.1 4.6 5.3 Alan Keyes 0.6 1.0 3.1 5.2 Arlen Specter 1.8 2.0 4.4 5.1 Pete Wilson 4.5 2.7 7.5 4.5 Bob Dornan 0.8 0.8 3.8 4.2 Newt Gingrich 3.1 1.6 3.8 2.0 Jack Kemp 0.8 0.6 1.4 1.0 Dan Quayle 1.9 0.7 1.9 0.7 Dick Cheney 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.6 Ross Perot 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.6 Pat Robertson 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 Bill Weld — 0.1 — 0.3 — Bill Bennett — 0.1 — 0.2 — Howard Baker — 0.1 — 0.2 — George H.W. Bush — 0.0 — 0.0 —

We included everyone we had polling data for, no matter how likely or unlikely they were to run.

Source: Polls

And that’s a wrap for now. In Part II, we’ll look at early primary polls in contests from 2000 to 2016. And as we’ll see, Republicans broke with their habit of nominating the early polling leader, while Democrats nominated an early frontrunner twice, after doing so only once between 1972 and 1996.

Additional contributions by Laura Bronner.

#IFTTT #Politics – FiveThirtyEight #politics #538 #Geoffrey Skelley

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ramajmedia · 5 years ago

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Attack On Titan Basement Reveal: The Eldians' Origin & Marley Explained

Here's a breakdown of everything revealed in Attack On Titan courtesy of Eren's basement, including the Eldians, Marley and the history of the Titans. From the very beginning of Attack On Titan, Eren's basement key has been a major point of mystery. What secrets had Eren's father hidden beneath the family home that would supposedly explain everything? Those answers finally arrived at the end of Attack On Titan season 3, after the Survey Corps. fought a desperate battle to regain control of Wall Maria, the enclosure where the ruins of Eren's house still sat unexplored.

Many fans feared that whatever the basement contained couldn't possibly live up to the hype and expectation placed upon it but, fortunately, these worries were unfounded. After finally making his way into the basement and locating a secret compartment in his father's old desk, Eren discovered a series of journals and a photograph that essentially revealed the entire truth and history of Attack On Titan's fictional world, answering almost all of the story's major questions and mysteries ahead of Attack On Titan season 4.

Related: What To Expect From Attack On Titan Season 4

Attack On Titan's basement reveal was a huge info-dump, and one that fundamentally altered the landscape of the franchise. As such, there's plenty for fans to wrap their heads around. Here's a breakdown of everything confirmed by Grisha's notes in Attack On Titan season 3, with some of the information complimented by Eren's own Titan memories.

Attack On Titan's story begins almost 2000 years prior to the first episode with a young girl called Ymir Fritz. Depending on whom you believe, Ymir is the first person to gain the power of the Titans by either making a deal with the devil or touching the source of all life. In either case, Ymir becomes the original Titan, possessing the power of all nine Titan-shifters from the present-day timeline. Ymir developed a God-like following and, following her death, the power of the Titans was split among nine of her people.

Thanks to "the Curse of Ymir," a Titan-shifter will only live for 13 years after acquiring the power, at which point (or before, should the holder be killed), their Titan will pass into the next Eldian child to be born. Only Eldians, Subjects of Ymir, can become Titans and only Ymir's direct lineage of royal descendants can use the powers of the Founding Titan, or the Coordinate.

With their newfound abilities, the Subjects of Ymir created their own nation of Eldia and set about building an Empire that covered a large part of the planet - an allegory to the Roman Empire of real-world history. Much like the Romans, the Eldians viewed themselves as pioneers, using their Titan powers to help develop the lands they ruled over, constructing entire cities and overrunning their opponents with unmatched power. However, those not of Eldian descent viewed the Titan-powered nation as a race of invading conquerors, who used their transformations to slaughter countless innocents in the name of the Eldian Empire and then treated the natives as slaves. It's not yet clear which account is accurate, although the truth is most likely a mixture of both viewpoints.

Before Ymir Fritz first inherited the power of the Titans, Marley was the world's most influential nation. Not taking too kindly to being usurped by a bunch of naked giants, Marley and Eldia eventually found themselves at war, although nothing could overcome the ferocity of Eldia's nine Titans. Fortunately for Marley, those nine Titan-shifters - who had since become famous noble Eldian houses - were beginning to bicker and jostle for power among themselves.

Seizing this opportunity, Marley stoked the embers of discontent among the Eldian elite and found an opening within the division. Gradually, Marley acquired seven of the nine Titans for themselves, depriving Eldia of their biggest military asset and finally beginning their return to prominence.

Related: Attack On Titan Is Making The Same Mistake As Game Of Thrones

As war rumbled on, the Eldian king of the time, Karl Fritz, exiled himself to the remote Paradis Island, and with defeat looking increasingly inevitable, other Eldians began flocking to join him. With Marley's victory imminent, Karl Fritz made a proclamation to bring the conflict to an end. He and the Eldians who had reached Paradis would confine themselves within three giant walls constructed entirely of Titans and, using his power as the Founding Titan, Fritz would make an oath that would bound both him and his successors to never trigger another war or use their powers to fight back. In exchange, Marley would leave Paradis Island in peace, with the mass of Titans hidden in the walls acting as a further deterrent. To prevent public outcry and future battles, King Fritz wiped the memories of everyone living behind the walls.

The truce was made official, but many Eldians failed to reach to Paradis Island and were stuck on the Marley-controlled mainland. These citizens were subjugated and treated as second-class citizens, directly paralleling Nazi treatment of the Jews during World War II. However, a select few Eldians were promised a better life in exchange for taking on one of Marley's seven Titans and fighting as part of their military.

Should an Eldian commit a crime or violate the rules placed upon them, they would be taken to Paradis Island and injected with a serum that turned them into a mindless Titan. These creatures were then left to roam the land outside of the three walls and these transformed humans are the Titans seen and fought against throughout most of Attack On Titan.

This peace continued for a century but, as Grisha explains, Marley's continued military expeditions around the world had greatly drained their resources. Paradis Island sits on a huge reserve of valuable natural resources, so the Marleyan government decided to renege on their truce with the Eldians and send a team inside the walls with the ultimate aim of bringing down the last Eldian stronghold. This team consised of Annie, Reiner and Bertholt, and directly leads to the events seen in the very first episode.

Related: The Ultimate Attack On Titan Gift Guide

As well as gaining an insight into the background of the Titans and the layout of the outside world, Attack On Titan's basement reveal also chronicles Grisha Jaeger's personal journey, having previously been a man of mystery. Grisha was part of an Eldian family living under Marleyan rule and, after violating the strict restrictions on Eldian movement, Grisha's sister was mercilessly killed by a Marleyan guard. This pivotal moment eventually inspired Grisha to join the Eldian Restoration movement, and he would go on to marry a descendant of the Fritz family and have a child named Zeke.

Grisha attempted to raise Zeke as Eldia's final hope, but the young boy sold his parents out and the entire rebellion was discovered and quashed. The members of the Eldian resistance are taken to Paradis Island and, one by one, transformed into Titans. However, Grisha is saved when one of the Marleyan guards carrying out the execution reveals himself to be the secret leader of the Eldian Restoration movement, who had infiltrated the authorities of Marley in order to pass on vital intelligence. This man, named as Eren Kruger, also holds one of the two Titans that elude Marley, the Attack Titan. Since Kruger is coming to the end of his 13-year term, he passes the Titan onto Grisha and sends him towards the walls, hoping he can finally bring freedom to the Eldians.

In his notes, Grisha reveals how he planned to infiltrate the walls, find King Fritz and retrieve the Founding Titan for himself to use as a weapon against Marley.

More: Attack On Titan Movie In Development; IT's Andy Muschietti To Direct

Attack On Titan season 4 premieres in 2020.

source https://screenrant.com/attack-titan-basement-reveal-eldian-origin-marley-explained/

#screenrant

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cutsliceddiced · 5 years ago

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New top story from Time: Fights Over ‘Authentic’ Chinese Food Have a Long and Complicated History. Now They’re Tearing the Culinary World Apart

When Chef Gordon Ramsay hosted a preview for his Asian-inspired London restaurant Lucky Cat in April, he called the evening “warm, buzzing & brilliant.” But Angela Hui, a British food writer, felt otherwise.

In her article on food website Eater London and in an Instagram story, Hui, who is of Chinese descent, lamented the menu lumping together various Asian cuisines, the lack of Asian staffers or invited guests, and what she perceived as the head chef’s scant experience with Asian food. “It was nothing if not a real-life Ramsay kitchen nightmare,” she wrote, pointing out culturally ignorant names on the menu, like “White Geisha” cocktails. But after publication, Hui faced a torrent of racist abuse on social media. Ramsay, the creator of the award-winning series Kitchen Nightmares, also weighed in on Instagram, calling her posts “derogatory and offensive.” (TIME repeatedly attempted to contact Gordon Ramsay Restaurants but received no response.)

Chinese food has been served out of scrappy basement joints, lunch boxes and regal dining rooms, and cooked by striving immigrant mothers and millionaire restaurateurs alike. But in recent years, debates surrounding the cuisine have intensified, with allegations of cultural appropriation, insensitivity and oversensitivity being cast from all sides. The Lucky Cat flare-up followed two recent firestorms surrounding Chinese or pan-Asian restaurants with white proprietors accused of being culturally insensitive. Earlier in April, a New York City restaurant, Lucky Lee’s, was the target of public fury for purporting to offer “clean” Chinese food. And in December, television chef Andrew Zimmern had to walk back comments he had made about Chinese food in the Midwest being served in “horseshit restaurants” while promoting his own chain, Lucky Cricket.

For Hui, the narratives around cultural appropriation have often lacked nuance. “The question of whether white people can cook Chinese food is completely missing the point,” Hui says. “Instead, it’s about respecting it.”

As debates about authenticity rage, two central questions emerge: Why is this conversation happening primarily around Chinese cuisine? And why now?

Leonard McCombe—The LIFE Images Collection via Getty ImagesChin Dut Toy (L) standing in his restaurant, watching tourists try his Chinese food in December 1950 in New York City.

While Chinese food is tied up in personal identity for many, the current intensity of the conversation is partly rooted in a history of viewing Chinese cuisine as cheap and dirty. When the U.S. Congress passed the Immigration and Naturalization Act of 1965, the country’s immigration quota system was abolished; as a result, a wave of working-class Chinese immigrants–many of them Cantonese– started to arrive in the United States, opening up slews of low-budget restaurants. Because many of the restaurants operated on tight budgets in dense city centers, Chinese food came to be seen by many as unsanitary or worth little more than a quick bite.

Around the same time, prompted by land reforms in the former British colony of Hong Kong, many agricultural workers from the island were attracted to the U.K. in search of new lives. Two decades later, significant migration from mainland China began as the People’s Republic relaxed restrictions on emigration. In cities like London, Liverpool, Birmingham and Bristol, Chinese communities of significant size set up shops and food establishments, creating world-renowned Chinatowns and Chinese Quarters. A 1985 survey indicated that 90% of employed Chinese people living in Britain worked in the catering industry, and by 2001, an estimated 12,000 Chinese takeaways and 3,000 Chinese restaurants were operating in the U.K.

“The early Chinese restaurants in the West were opened by poor immigrants who were not trained chefs and were just trying to make a living,” Fuchsia Dunlop, a British writer specializing in Chinese cuisine, tells TIME. But Chinese food quickly became popular as an easy dinner option, especially in urban centers; the cuisine became a source of unity and derision alike in TV shows like “Seinfeld” and “Friends.” In the 90s’, white Western restaurateurs, spotting an opportunity, began to open up their own Asian restaurants—like Stephen Starr’s Buddakan in New York, Philadelphia and Atlantic City, Jean-Georges’ Vong in New York and Noah Tepperberg’s Tao in Las Vegas —that sought to elevate the unpretentious cuisine’s prices and quality. “It became this sexy thing,” says Filipino-American chef Dale Talde, who worked at Buddakan and Vong early in his career.

While some of those restaurants have been lambasted for exoticizing Asian cultures, complete with Buddha statues and red lanterns, they played two important roles: to create a pipeline for Asian cooks and chefs like Talde to make high-level food, and to shift the general perception of Asian cuisine. “Whether or not they made money off the backs of Asian culture, they helped show that it wasn’t just $5.95 for a bowl of soup,” Talde says. Talde also points to Asian-American chefs in the 80s and 90s like Martin Yan and Roy Choi, who served as inspiration for a new iconoclastic generation that included himself, Danny Bowien, David Chang, and Eddie Huang. These irreverent and media-savvy chefs emerged as uncompromising cultural forces in the 2000s, opening up their own restaurants that revamped Chinese cuisine in varied and astonishing directions.

Amy Dickerson—The New York Times/ReduxChef Roy Choi pushes a dish through the kitchen window at his restaurant A-Frame in Los Angeles on Jan. 10, 2012.

As these chefs and others gained a Western following, they were also buoyed by China itself. During the 1990s, the Chinese government implemented several new policies boosting a flow of tourists both in and out of the country during the 1990s. The very idea of Chinese cuisine began to expand beyond the low-budget Cantonese style common in Western cities, to include cuisine from the regions of Sichuan, Hunan and Xi’an. “To cater to all the new Chinese living in the West, there’s a whole new generation of restaurants which are not trying to adapt to simplified Western tastes, but are serving more authentic regional cuisine,” Dunlop says.

As Chinese food rises in stature and price, a new wave of white restaurateurs are realizing there’s money to be made in the field, just as Starr and Tepperberg did decades ago. But unlike then, Chinese communities in the U.S. or the U.K. now have the ability to critique the work of these chefs, thanks in part to social media. And when leaders across industries perceive a disrespect toward their community or heritage, they have used their platforms to voice discontent–like during the #StarringJohnCho movement, which called for increased representation in Hollywood, or during the Harvard affirmative action lawsuit, for which impassioned op-eds sprung up from both sides.

The food industry is no exception. “Traditional gourmet criticism has been a white male thing for a long time,” Krishnendu Ray, a professor of food studies at NYU, says. “They are many Asian-Americans who are Anglophone and who have a memory of disdain and disgust toward their foods in school lunches. They are saying, ‘I suffered at your hands all these years: you called it yucky and smelly food. It’s now my turn to talk back.’”

Ray says that the shift in perception of Chinese food is likely to further transform, in part because of China’s rise as an economic power. “We are nearing the end of poor Chinese migration and the growth of professional Chinese circulation,” he says, pointing to the Chinese students and software engineers who are filling Western cities. “They have a very different exposure and understanding of Chinese food.”

It’s likely that in the years to come, Chinese food in the West will expand beyond the notion that it is mostly low-budget takeout food–just like Japanese food did last century. In the early part of the 1900s, raw fish was an alien idea to most of America; Japanese food was associated with canned foods like SPAM, and anti-Japanese sentiment lingered after World War II. But “in 50 years, the American conception of Japan had almost flipped,” Ray says. “It is crucially linked to the rise of Japan as a political and cultural power.” Japanese chefs, arriving with money and influence, opened restaurants that catered to higher-end diners and critics. Their exacting culinary methods cultivated an aura around the food. Now, Ray’s study of Yelp and Zagat data shows that Japanese food is one of the most expensive cuisines in America, and chefs like Masaharu Morimoto and Nobu Matsuhisa are treated like auteurs.

A generation of Chinese chefs hopes to be treated with the same reverence, and they’re asserting themselves as creative forces as opposed to just faithful translators of some hazy notion of authenticity. Ray says that there is a double standard in the upper echelons of haute cuisine, in which white male chefs are praised for their individual artistry, allowing them to experiment and cross-pollinate with other cuisines, while non-white chefs are judged by their faithfulness to a tradition. “If you are a chef of color, you’re probably going to be squeezed into that space somewhere between the cook representing the community and the chef as an artist,” he says.

This divide is explored and reinforced in this summer’s Netflix film Always Be My Maybe. When Sasha (Ali Wong), a celebrity chef, attempts to make a “transdenominational” interpretation of Asian food, she is accused of cultural betrayal by Marcus (Randall Park). “Asian food isn’t supposed to be ‘elevated.’ It’s supposed to be authentic,” he says, criticizing Sasha for “catering to rich white people.”

But while audiences are meant to sympathize with Marcus, Sasha shares a vision with many real chefs in the West who have reinterpreted Chinese food to great acclaim, incorporating tastes and presentation to appeal to the dining world elite. In San Francisco, the chef George Chen recently opened a new restaurant, Eight Tables, which features lavish multi-course meals in stately rooms meant to resemble Chinese homes; his menu features cross-cultural innovations like foie gras potstickers and osetra caviar. And while the large price tags on his menus have drawn some criticism, Chen says he is trying to combat a double standard that places him at a disadvantage compared to, say, Italian chefs. “Nobody complains about a half portion size of pasta Bolognese for $19,” he says. “People want to pigeonhole you into these categories. We’re not supposed to be creative with our cuisine.”

Ed Araquel—NetflixAli Wong and Randall Park in Netflix’s ‘Always Be My Maybe’.

In London, Andrew Wong’s trendy restaurant A. Wong presents diners with dishes designed to evoke snapshots of China across regions and time. Awarded a Michelin star in 2017, Wong tells TIME that the accolade has allowed him to do more adventurous things he wouldn’t have considered before, such as working with an anthropologist to craft the conceptual menu.

Wong’s restaurant is a homage to his parents; two first-generation Chinese migrants setting up shop in the food industry, with his father being one of the first Chinese pub-owners in the U.K. “My parents would never look at cooking as a profession. It was more a function to serve a purpose,” Wong tells TIME. “Nowadays, there’s also the understanding that a chef has to be more than just a cook.”

And while A. Wong has attracted a lot of attention since gaining the Michelin star, its head chef still wants the restaurant to retain an accessible, family feel. During a busy dinner service, a slab of crispy roast pork hangs off a butcher’s hook and baskets of dim sum sit atop a steamer as Wong calls out instructions to his team. “I want our guests to feel as if they’re eating in our own house, and I’m trying to push people to understand the beauty of our culture,” he says in a quiet moment. Here, inventive takes on classic Chinese favorites such as Shanghai steamed dumplings infused with ginger and stir fried market vegetables garnished with truffle are presented with meticulous detail and in-depth explanations from wait staff.

Wong, Chen and other innovators hope to inspire a new generation of Chinese-influenced chefs unbound by stereotypes or any rigid notion of authenticity–as well as a new generation of consumers who will embrace the vast array of Chinese flavors. “When we say ‘Chinese cuisine,’ it’s not one familiar cuisine; it’s incredibly diverse,” the writer Fuchsia Dunlop says. “I think people thought they knew all about Chinese food, and actually it’s full of surprises.”

For writer Angela Hui, these culinary experiences have been integral to her identity. She spent her childhood in the kitchen of her family’s Chinese takeout restaurant, founded by her Hong Kong-native parents in the Welsh valleys during the 1980s. That relationship with food is partly why she was so frustrated with her experience at Lucky Cat. “For a person with a high profile like [Ramsay’s], he could have done a lot more. The point I’m getting at is take inspiration, but don’t bite the hand that feeds you,” she says. “It would be an incredibly boring world if we were all only allowed to cook the food of our culture.”

via https://cutslicedanddiced.wordpress.com/2018/01/24/how-to-prevent-food-from-going-to-waste

#Time #top stories #IFTTT #news

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marymosley · 4 years ago

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Reports and Statistics of Crime in India in 20-21 century: The changes

1. Introduction

Crimes that are being reported in the past have shown a radical change. On one hand, in the 21st century, conventional crimes like murder, robbery, theft, and burglary have shown a declining phenomenon. Whilst on the other hand such crimes have been replaced by less violent crimes like counterfeiting, cheating, criminal breach of trust, bank fraud, cyber bullying, cyber pornography, etc. Such a shift in the dimension of crime from the 20th century to the 21st century is a result of a change in socio-economic phenomenon mainly due to globalization and the advancement of technology. Crimes like trafficking in narcotics, fraudulent financial deal, money laundering, Trojan attacks, cyber bullying, cyber warfare are adding new dimensions to crime set up.

2. Change in trends of violent and property crimes.

Before the end of the 20th century, violent crimes like murder, burglary, rioting, theft, and robbery were rampant. But the beginning of the 21st century shows a sharp decline in such crimes, mainly due to a more robust policing system in the country. The UN office on Drugs and Crime stated in its 2019 report stated that the overall homicide cases in India have dropped by 10%. According to the NCRB report, during the period of 2009 to 2015, the shift in homicide cases is from 3.8 to 3.4 per 1,000,000 population. It is important to note that while cases like theft, burglary, and rioting showed a sharp decline of 74%, 54%, and 51% respectively in the period of 1971 to 2015, the murder rate decreased by only 3%. All the four crime series viz, murder, theft, burglary, and rioting, following the similar pathways initially, peaked in 1974 and troughed immediately for 1–2 years before starting an upward trend. Unexpectedly, all rates, except that of murder, declined.[1]

Almost all the categories of crime in the field of violent crimes have shown a either sharp decrease or a feasible decrease. But the crime of rape has shown inconsistency with the other set of crimes. The rape rate showed a continuously increasing trend between 1971 and 2011, with the exceptional brief of pause between 1998 and 2003 when it stabilized. According to the data of NCRB, during the period of 1971-2011, the murder rate declined by 3%, while the rape rate increased by 351%.

3. Change in trends of crime against Children

Crime against children is considered as one of the most disastrous crimes. Efforts are made in order to afoot the exodus of such menace from the society but the crime is increasing with expedient rate and has spread larger roots in the 21st century than 20th century. Crime against children includes child rape, kidnapping, abduction, procuration of minor girls, selling and buying of girls for prostitution, abetment of suicide, exposure and abandonment, infanticide, foeticide, and child marriage restraint.[2]

In the report of NCRB of 1996, the year of 1997 showed the percentage variation of 57.8% from 1993 in child rape, kidnapping, and abduction. According to the NCRB report of 2015, kidnapping and abduction have shown the maximum number of cases within the ambit of offenses against children during the period of 2000-2015. While during the period of 1990 to 2000, child rape has shown the maximum number of cases. But still, there was an increase in the number of rape cases from 2,499 cases to 10,854 cases from 1990 to 2015. During the period of 1994 to 2015, the number of crime against children increased from 5,821 cases to 56,567 cases, showing an increase of 89%.

Children are the most vulnerable class of society and considered as the most valuable asset for a developed nation. In order to curb the menace of crime against children several legislations under Indian Penal code, as well as special and local laws, have been formulated, like, protection of Children from Sexual Offences, Child labor (Prohibition & Regulation) Act, 1986, Immoral Traffic (Prevention) Act, 1956, and Prohibition of Child Marriage Act, 2006 etc. But such legislations are unable to either slow down or diminish the rampant growth of offenses against children.[3]

4. Emergence of Cyber Crime

In the 21st century, it does not matter how many weapons you are carrying but instead, your efficiency with respect to technology matters the most. The increase rate of advancement in the field of technology prove to be boon as well as a bane. On one hand, it increased the efficiency of humans, while on the other hand, it resulted in the emergence of new variants of crime, viz Cyber Crime. Capacity to store data, easy accessibility, complexity, and loss of evidence are some of the factors which helped such crime to flourish in 21st century. The modes and manners of committing Cyber Crimes include unauthorized users access to computer systems like hacking to the computer, theft of information including in electronic form, email bombing, virus attacks, and salami attacks, etc.

On the basis of perpetrators and the motive crimes committed by the use of technology can be divided into four parts viz, cyber crime, cyber warfare, cyber espionage, and cyber-terrorism. During the period 2010-2018, the cases increased from 966 to 27,248 cases, showing an increase of 96%.[4] In the initial years of the formation of NCRB, the heading of cyber crime did not find its place in the annual reports of the institution. But with the advancement of technology, cybercrime has become the most prominent crime in society while increasing with an exponential rate. The report of NCRB in 2010 reported an increase of 50% cybercrimes over the previous year. While in 2017 the cyber crime increased by 77%. According to the NCRB report, cyber crime has also evolved itself to include different variants of cyber crime within itself like the circulation of nude pictures. In 2015-2016 out of 569 cases out of 5987 cyber crime cases were motivated by sexual exploitation. Such incidents of crime have increased by 107% in recent years. Apart from this, other sets of crimes in the ambit of cyber crime include, inter alia, tapering computer source document, misrepresentation, and suppression of facts, cyber stalking, cyber bullying of crimes, defamation, and morphing.

Due to such rampant increase of cyber crimes in India, lead the government to make an exclusive and separate set of legislation, viz Information Act 2000, to deal with the rampant of cyber crimes.

5. Emergence of Economic offenses

The increase in industrialization and globalization lead to the emergence of a new set of crime, namely, white collar/blue collar crimes or simply put economic offenses. Economic offenses are the manifestation of criminal acts dine either solely or in an organized manner with or without associates or gangs with an intent to earn wealth through illegal means, and carry out illicit activities violating the laws of the land, other regulatory, statutory provisions governing the economic activities of the government and its administration.[5] In the starting of 20th century such offenses are not in large numbers and hence, the chapter of economic offenses did not find its place in NCRB annual reports for 50 years. In 1994, the chapter of “economic offenses” was incorporated in NCRB annual reports for the very first time. Crimes associated with economic offenses include smuggling, money laundering, tax evasion, export and import offenses, drug trafficking, trading in cultural property, bribery, corruption, and bank frauds.

In the 2015 report of NCRB data, the increase in the cases of economic offenses doubled in the last decade. In the 2017 report of NCRB, it was reported that the maximum number of crimes in the ambit of economic offenses are related to forgery, cheating, and fraud with 21,152 cases in 2017. In the year of 1994, the removal of government officials during the departmental proceedings for bribery and corruption was 3 and dismissal was 7. But in year 2002 removal spiked to 109. In the period of 1994 the categories of public servants involved in regular dept. The action was 1869, while in the year of 2003, it spiked to 5,888 cases.

Taking into consideration of such rampant increase of cases, several legislations were made to effectively deal with the menace of such economic offenses.

6. Conclusion

The cultural, social, and economic changes in society contribute to the change in the trends of the crime of the state. Apart from this, the other factors influencing crime trends are the effectiveness of aggressive law enforcement practices and science & technology. Poverty in any country affects largely the crime of any country. Newly emerged crimes are, somewhat, unable to effectively dealt by the government to the novelty associated with the crime. Hence, the unavailability of robust legislation and mechanism to effectively deal with the menace of such crimes, resulted in their expansion.[6]

Apart from this, it is also pertinent to note that such crime records are not fully reliable. The efficiency as well as the credibility of NCRB are often questioned upon due to the inconsistencies of records from several other surveys. This is mainly due to two reasons, firstly, NCRB relies on outdated population projections. Secondly, the methodology to compute crime rates is not consistent across the years, which makes a simple comparison of crime rates across years meaningless.[7] Several crimes which, prima facie, are creating a menace in the society have not been able to find its place in the reports of NHRC or any other identical reports. Lynching is one of the examples of such a discrepancy in the reports made by such institutions. Also, the statistics of such crimes are based only on the FIR registered by the police officials but it is pertinent to note that most of the cases in India went unregistered. According to the Safety Trends and Reporting of Crime survey conducted by a Mumbai based think-tank, IDFC Institute, only 6-8% of victims of theft in four major Indian cities lodged an FIR (first information report) with the police.

In conclusion, the progress of human civilization with the advancement of technology, economy, and social surrounding, did not result in the civilization of humans in true sense. But, on the contrary it resulted in the escalation of crime in the society while replacing conventional crimes.

[1] Crimes in India, NCRB report.

[2] Crimes in India, NCRB Report, 2015.

[3] Crime in India, NCRB Report, 2016.

[4] NCRB report

[5] Crimes in India, NCRB report, 1994.

[6] Lloyd E. Ohlin, Effect of Social Change on Crime and Law Enforcement, 43 Notre Dame L. Rev. 834 (1968)

[7] Priti pratishurthi Dash & Shreya Rastogi, The many Gaps in NCRB data, The Hindu, 29 Oct. 2019,

https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/the-many-gaps-in-ncrb-data/article29815998.ece

The post Reports and Statistics of Crime in India in 20-21 century: The changes appeared first on Legal Desire.

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micaramel · 5 years ago

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Artist: Sharif Waked

Venue: CCA Tel Aviv

Exhibition Title: Sharif Waked: Balagan

Date: February 18 – June 20, 2020

Curated By: Nicola Trezzi

Click here to view slideshow

Full gallery of images, press release and link available after the jump.

Images:

Videos:

Sharif Waked, Just A Moment No. 4 (Away From You), 2011. Video, 00:01 min (loop), 16:9 (widescreen), black and white, silent, 28:36

Sharif Waked, Just A Moment No. 21 (Shit), 2018. Video, 00:06 min (loop), 16:9 (widescreen), color, silent, 08:31

Sharif Waked, Bath Time, 2012. Video, 02:12 min, 16:9, color, sound

Sharif Waked, Just A Moment No. 19 (Nimrod), 2018. Video, 00:30 min (loop), 16:9 (widescreen), color, sound, 05:38

Sharif Waked, Just A Moment No. 17 (Smiley), 2016. Video, 02:16 min (loop), 16:9, color, silent

Sharif Waked, MoM – Museum of Mosul, 2017. Video, 03:30 min, 16:9 (widescreen)

Sharif Waked, Just A Moment No. 5 (Jericho First), 2012. Two-synchronized-channel video, 00:01 min (loop), 16:9 (widescreen), color, silent

Sharif Waked, Contribute A Better Translation No. 1, 2011. Video, 04:50 min (loop), 16:9 (widescreen), color, sound

Sharif Waked, Just A Moment No. 15 (Pa-Pa- Pa), 2016. Video, 02:16 min (loop), 16:9, color, sound

Sharif Waked, Beace Brocess No. 5, 2012. Video, 01:28 min (loop), 16:9 (widescreen), color, sound, in artist frame, 37.5 × 47 cm

Images courtesy of CCA, Tel Aviv

Press Release:

Through sustained reflection on aesthetics and politics, Sharif Waked (*1964, Nazareth; lives and works in Nazareth and Santa Barbara, California) has consistently pierced the absurdities of reality with playful and estranged encounters between various temporalities, cultural-historical products, and political events. On the occasion of his solo exhibition at CCA – Center for Contemporary Art Tel Aviv, the artist adopted the word Balagan, as its title. This word, which means chaos, disarray and confusion, originally comes from the Persian word “balchan” and it traveled across borders to other languages such as Russian, Yiddish, Lithuanian and Hebrew. Following the artist’s unique modus operandi – which is rooted in the conception of single artworks, often based on appropriated images, which are then “incarnated” (and numerated) several times through different media, formats and techniques – the exhibition includes both existing and recent pieces, linking different bodies of Waked’s work over time.

Just A Moment No. 4 (Away From You) (2011), appropriates footage featuring the Egyptian singer Umm Kulthum, while she sings her iconic song Away From You, focusing on the stamping of her left foot just underneath the dress scraping her heal. While in Bath Time (2012) the artist restaged what would be the end of the day for the “zebra” – in fact a donkey disguised as a zebra – of the Zoo in Gaza, in Just A Moment No. 21 (Shit) (2018), outtakes of the aforementioned work shows its star performing the mainstays of everyday life: eating and shitting.

In Just A Moment No. 19 (Nimrod) (2018) Yitzhak Danziger’s iconic sculpture Nimrod meets the mosquito that in the Islamic narrative entered Nimrod’s ear and made their way into his brain to drive him mad, while in Just A Moment No. 17 (Smiley) (2016) an army of contemporary emojis struggle to save their smiling ancestor from destruction. Who are you? (2014) are twelve abstract figures based on Muammar Gaddafi’s outfits, titled after a fragment of the last speech of the late Libyan leader, in which he promised to hunt his opposition down to the last alley; in Tugra No. 5 (2013), the artist infiltrates Israeli soldiers’ most common directive in Hebrew-inflected Arabic – “rukh min hun!” [Get out of here!] – inside the sixteenth century calligraphic monogram (tughra) of Suleiman the Magnificent.

Crop Marks (2016) sees the artist’s self-portrait in an orange suit subjected to the print-house’s “guillotine,” cut at his neck and along the crop marks of printing and design conventions, whereas in MoM – Museum of Mosul (2017) the footage of ISIS’s destructive actions is reproduced as a promotional film for a now-rebranded museum. While in Contribute A Better Translation No. 1 (2011) an archive of slogans of the Palestinian struggle undergo mechanized translation against a backdrop of visual iconography, in Contribute A Better Translation No. 2 (2011) the Palestinian Declaration of Independence, written by Mahmoud Darwish, is transformed into Yiddish via Google Translate.

Just A Moment No. 15 (Pa-Pa-Pa) (2016) is based on the claim of Israeli criminologist and politician Anat Berko, who said there is no Palestine because there is no P in Arabic, and in Beace Brocess No. 5 (2012) a clip from the Camp David II 2000 peace talks is refracted into the era of silent film. In Just A Moment No. 5 (Jericho First) (2012), the Oslo Agreements of the 1990s meet a detail of a mosaic from the eighth century Umayyads Caliphate. Search (2016), exposes the questions haunting Google Israel, whereas in Jamal Al Mahamel (2016) the barefoot carrier lifting the weight of Jerusalem on his back depicted in Suleiman Mansour’s eponymous work is absent and the city gives to gold dots.

Balagan is also the title of a work on display in the exhibition. It is part of the series Arabesque (2016-ongoing) and in it along with the series dot.txt (2016-ongoing) – Waked disassembles the building blocks of images to reconstruct what appear as geometric abstract surfaces. In these series, Waked questions the division between the visual and the verbal, perception and deception, the visual traditions of the past and the digital manipulations of the present, to deliver in a rather formalistic fashion the questioning, breaking, and remaking of meaning. Following these premises, the exhibition offers a bird’s eye view of Waked’s art, surveying his work as a comprehensive whole.

“Sharif Waked: Balagan” is curated by Nicola Trezzi and it is accompanied by a printed matter in Hebrew, Arabic and English. The exhibition is supported by Mifal HaPais Council for the Culture and Arts. Hospitality kindly provided by OUTSET.

Link: Sharif Waked at CCA Tel Aviv

from Contemporary Art Daily https://bit.ly/3cPmGNL

#micaramel

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vegas-glitz · 5 years ago

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The Coast Is Not Clear - Signs of an Impending Major Stock Market Crash

http://topicsofnote.com/?p=5522&utm_source=SocialAutoPoster&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Tumblr

Despite the recent correction, and regardless which popular metric you use; PE, Shiller's CAPE Ratio, or Buffett's Market to GDP comparison; this is one of the most expensive markets since 1923. The other two were the 1929 and 2000 markets and we know how those turned out. Incidentally, 1923 was the year the "Composite Index" was introduced, the S&P 500's precursor.

The record shows that, while stock prices can continue at elevated levels for a long time, they eventually reverse to the mean. That can happen in one of two ways. Either the market goes sideways for a long time until earnings catch up, or there is a sharp drop to bring prices in line with historical PE ratios - a reversal to the mean. History has shown that investors are not a patient bunch. They will put up with a sideways market for a while, but eventually they will tire of meager returns and put their money to work where they believe will yield greater gain potential. Once that ball gets rolling, the market exits en masse and a severe bear market takes hold. The upshot: there is a big market drop in store.

The question is when and was this past correction a hic-up or a prelude to the big plunge. A study of major bear markets indicates the latter is more likely. Indeed, a review of 28-plus -percent market drops since 1923 reveals there is always a preamble to every major bear market. Some folks are under the mistaken impression that stock market crashes occur at market tops. That is far from the truth.

The stock market may well be fickle, but providence is kind. It always gives us advance notice of a coming crash, grabbing our attention amidst our complacency with a surprise drop and providing an opportunity to get out before it crashes in earnest. This is shown in the analysis below for each of the following major bear markets (28% decline or more): 2007, 2000, 1987, 1973, 1968, 1962, 1946, 1937, and 1929. Intraday prices and daily closes are only available for the S&P 500 from 1950 on. Therefore, Dow Jones Industrial Average closes were used for the markets before that.

2007 The initial top for the 2007 market came July 17 when the S&P 500 had an intraday high of 1555.90. The index would drop the next week and eventually settle to an intraday low of 1370.60 a month later on August 16 - a drop of 11.9%. Henceforth, all highs and lows are intraday unless otherwise stated. The market would climb for seven weeks to reach a market top for the index of 1576,09 October 11, 2007 - 1.3% higher than its previous high. An initial 5.5% dip was followed by a quick recovery to 1552.76 October 31, before succumbing and dropping 10.8% to a low of 1406.10 November 26, 2007. The index would recover to a high of 1523.57 and continue on a series of lower lows and highs until its nadir of 666.79 March 9, 2009 for a 57.7% decline.

2000 The 2000 market gave plenty of warning before the Dot.com plunge. The market faltered right after opening the New Year January 3rd. After reaching a high of 1478, the S&P 500 dropped to 1455.22 at the close. It dropped below 1400 the next three days and recovered to 1465.71 - the high January 20, 2000. From there it did a roller coaster ride down to the 1329.15 low of February 25 - a 10.1% drop from its high thus far. The market finally climaxed at 1552.87 March 24, 2000. It would drop precipitously April 14 to a low of 1339.40 - a 13.7% drop - but then slowly recovered to 1530.09 by September 1, 2000, only 1.5% below its all-time high. Thereafter it steadily went down with some sharp drops followed by rallies but only to the downtrend line. The market bottomed at 775.80 October 9, 2002 for a 50.1% decline.

1987 The 1987 bear market was a swift one. After vacillating to a high of 337.89 August 25, 1987, the S&P 500 dropped to 308.58 by September 8 - an 8.7% hit. It quickly recovered to 328.94 by October 2, only 2.6% down from its high. It wobbled to a close below 300 October 15 before crashing the next Monday to close at 224.84 - a loss of 20.5% for that day. It would close lower December 4, 1987 at 223.92 but the low point for the move came the day after the plunge, October 20, when it dipped to 216.46 for a loss of 36.0% from the August high.

1973 This, along with the 1968 bear market, were part of the mega bear market that spanned 1967 - 1982. The S&P oscillated within the 100 and 110 range for most of the year. It cleared the 110-barrier in late summer only to dip below it again before making its final surge as the year closed. It peaked at 119.79 December 12, 1972 and then dropped 4.3% to 114.63 December 21, 1972. The New Year propelled the index higher reaching a top of 121.74 January 11, 1973 - a 1.6% gain from the previous high. It quickly dropped to 111.85 by February 8 and then proceeded to careen downward over a series of bumps until hitting bottom at 60.96 October 4, 1974 - a 49.9% loss.

1968 After an initial drop to start the year, the market climbed steadily from March through November finally topping December 2, 1968 when the S&P 500 maxed out at 109.37. The index dropped to 96.63 by January 13, 1969 (an 11.6% drop), fizzled in its rally coming within 0.43 points of the low March 17, and then rallied all the way up to 106.74 May 14, 1969. After coming within 2.4% of the top it succumbed finally hitting bottom...May 26, 1970 at 68.61. That was a 37.3% haircut.

1962 The stock market steadily climbed from October 1960 to December 1962 when the S&P 500 topped out at 72.64 December 12, 1962. Then it dipped to 67.55 January 24, 1963 for a 7.0% loss. The index quickly went back to 70 the next week and eked out a small gain the next month finally peaking at 71.44 March 15, 1.7% below the high. Thereafter, the index plunged to 51.35 June 25, 1962 for a 29.3% decline.

1946 The market had been on a tear since the latter part of World War II and started 1946 the same way gaining 8% by February. Intraday highs and lows for the S&P 500 were not available for the analysis so, hereafter, Dow Jones Industrial Average closes will be used. The Dow Jones closed at 206.61 February 5, 1946. The index then plunged 10% to close at 186.02 February 26. It quickly recovered its previous high and surpassed it on a bucking horse ride up to 212.5 May 29, 1946 - a 2.9% gain from its previous high. The bumpy ride continued until August when the index reached 204.52 on August 13 and then fell in exhaustion finally closing at 163.13 October 9, 1946 for a 23.2% decline. Despite a number of rally attempts, the market would continue to struggle until February 1948 with a maximum loss of 28%.

1937 After a precipitous drop from 1929 to 1932, the market seemed to be on recovery mode until it plateaued in early 1937. The Dow Jones closed at 194.4 March 10, 1937 to mark the end of the uptrend. The index then drifted lower for three months until bottoming June 14, 1937 at 165.51 for a 14.9% loss. It spent the next two months on a steady climb eventually topping at 189.34 August 16, 2.6% below the previous high. That was its last hurrah as the market plunged 49.1% to its 98.95 March 31, 1938 Dow Jones close.

1929 Much like the 2000 market, the Big Crash of '29 gave plenty of warning. After going sideways for the first half of the year, the market went through a 10.0% correction when it swanned from a 326.16 Dow Jones close May 6 to 293.42 May 27. Thereafter, it rose undaunted until reaching the market top close of 381.17 September 3, 1929. It drifted lower, slowly at first, but then gained momentum until reaching a low point Friday, October 4 with a 325.17 Dow Jones close - a 14.7% loss. It made a mad dash effort to recover the next week but was only able to manage a 352.86 close October 10. At 7.4% lower than the September high, this was the lowest percentage close to a previous high of any of the major bear markets. Then again, this was the granddaddy of all bears. Ten trading days later, on October 24, the index closed below 300. It dived Monday, October 28 and again the next day closing at 230.07. The market continued its plummet until eventually reaching bottom July 8, 1932 when the Dow Jones closed at 41.22 for a record 89.2% decline.

Conclusion

Historical data shows that every major bear market since 1923 always provided investors with a warning. After seemingly peaking, they went through a significant decline before rising again only to plummet thereafter. In two instances, 2000 and 1929, it gave two warnings; the first a correction months before peaking, and the second after peaking.

Declines after the initial peak ranged from 14.9% to 4.3% with an average of 10.8% and a median of 11.6%. In three out of the nine cases, 2007, 1973 and 1946, the second peak was lower than the first. The range was from a loss of 7.4% to a gain of 2.9% with an average of -1.4% median of -1.7%. Taking out the 1929, 7.4% outlier, the average was -0.63% and the median -1.6%. The time between the two peaks ranged from 30 days to 5.4 months with an average of 96.7 days and a median of 93 days.

Starting from the premise we are in the beginning stages of a major bear market, and having gone through a 10% correction, what is in store for us? Surveying the data, it turns out we are average. There seemed to be no relationship between the severity of the bear market and the time lapse between the two peaks. However, five out of the six times the market went through a bonafide correction, 10% or more, it took months, between 2.9 and 5.4 months, for the market to top and begin its downturn in earnest. The notable exception was the Crash of 1929, which only took 37 days between the first and seconds peaks. Although there was no consistent pattern for depth of the initial decline and the total decline, it is notable that the four largest initial drops led to declines of 49% or more - a level only achieved by the 1973 bear market after only a 4.3% decline. There is no discernible relationship between the initial decline and second peak level, nor the total decline and second peak level.

It could be that Morgan Stanley's prediction this Monday, that a slowdown may loom starting in the second quarter, may be correct. We have already gone above the -7.4% level from 1929, so it would seem this market does not correlate all that well to that one and the wait to the next decisive peak will be measured in months. Regardless, I would caution all to watch the market's advance very carefully. If the S&P 500 gets within 2.6% of the 2872.87 January 26 top, i.e. 2798, that is your signal to exit the stock market. No sense being greedy about the last 1 or 2 percent gains and risk losing much more.

Source by Karl De Jesus

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lovemesomesurveys · 5 years ago

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Have you ever read the Hunger Games series? Yep and watched all the movies. I was really into it at the time. When was the last time you ran into something? Hmm. I don’t recall. Do you enjoy dressing up? Nah. Do you live in the city or a rural area? I live in the city. Would you say you have a sense of style? My sense of style consists of mostly graphic tees and leggings, but also some Adidas clothes. And shoes.

What’s your biggest fear? This question comes up all the damn time. Have you ever been bitten by a wild animal? Nooo. Are you close to any of your cousins? Aww, I used to be close to a few of my cousins. Not anymore, though. :( That’s all my fault. I became really distant and withdrawn from friends and even family outside of my immediate family. Have you ever been lost in the woods? No, thankfully. Where did you last travel? Disneyland back in February. Do you enjoy driving? I don’t drive. What song did you last listen to? I mentioned this in a previous survey already, but I’ve had Savage by Megan the Stallion stuck in my head because of TikTok. If you have a job, how often do you work? I don’t have a job. What time do you normally go to sleep at night? For the past month I’ve been going to bed after 6AM. :X Do you watch a lot of movies? Hmm. Not a lot, no. I watch more TV shows. Do you like Tom Petty? ”Now I’m freeeeeee Free fallin’.” Would you rather have snow or rain? I love rainy days. It doesn’t snow here, but I wish it did. Do you own a lot of sweaters? I own a lot of sweatshirts. Have you ever tried rock-climbing? Well, no. For obvious reasons. Ever ridden in a police car? Nope. Favorite decade of music? That’s tough cause I like music that spans across decades, but I think the 90s and early 2000′s will hold a special spot. Have any of your best friends been your best friend longer than a year? My longest was my best friend of 15 years. Ever witnessed a murder? Noooo. Does your room have a ceiling fan? Yep. Have you ever tried blogging? Before Tumblr I had Xanga for a long time. Favorite television channel? E!, MTV, The Hallmark Channel, TeenNick, TVLand, and the ID Channel. Have you ever lied under oath? I’ve never had to be under oath. What are your religious views? I’m a Christian. When did you last change your bed sheets? A week ago. Would you consider yourself a flirt? No. At what age do you plan to be married? I don’t plan on getting married. Do you eat a lot of junk food? Honestly, all I eat is sandwiches, ramen, eggs, and Wingstop. Sometimes pizza and pasta. When did you last go on vacation? I’ve answered this 3 times now tonight, but I went to Disneyland back in February. Are you resilient? I was when I was younger. Definitely not anymore. Have you ever failed a subject before? I failed one math course in community college and had to retake it again. I ended up doing a lot better the 2nd time. I honestly believe it’s because I had a better teacher. If so, what was the class? ^^^ Do you wear more bright or dull colors? Dull. Majority of my clothes are black. Do you know anyone who has attempted suicide? Yes. What’s your favorite quote? Blah. How many clocks are in your house? Like 20 including all the electronics. Do you play any sports? Nope. What is your biggest life regret? I have a lot of those. Have you ever been injured in a car accident? No, thankfully. If you could be anywhere in the world right now, where would you be? Well obviously right now I only want to be at home, but I look forward to the day I can go to the beach. Have you ever had highlights in your hair? Yeah, I had them for years. Favorite fast food restaurant? I’m not into fast food anymore like I used to be. I was a fast food junkie before. The only takeout I’m into is Wingstop. And pizza from a local place, but I haven’t had that in awhile. In what country were you born? US of A. Are your eyes more than one color? Nope, just brown. Have you ever caught something on fire? Something in the microwave once, something in the oven once, the tips of my hair.... What would you consider your biggest flaw? Oh boy where to start. What do you think your best quality is? I don’t know. Do you enjoy listening to others’ problems? I used to be the person people came to if they needed advice or just someone to talk to and I was good at it. I liked being there and helping any way I could. People told me they felt comfortable talking to me and I was easy to talk to. It could also be overwhelming and draining at times. Especially leading up to when I fell into a really low, dark place a few years ago. I couldn’t be that person anymore. I wasn’t in a good headspace. I pushed everyone away and became very distant and withdrawn. That was 4 years ago and I’m still out of that place. :/

Do you keep any plants in your house? Nope. What is your mother’s occupation? She’s a manager at Walgreens. Do any of your friends like your musical style? My family and I share some musical interests. What are you most looking forward to? I wanna say this quarantine ending, but I know resuming life in the real world would also be making me anxious when the time comes. I guess I’m most excited for seeing Gabie again, because I haven’t seen March 7th. <<< SAME to the first part. What was your favorite television show as a child? Disney Channel, Nickelodeon, PBS, Saturday morning cartoons on ABC, WB Kids... all the kid shows in the 90s, basically. Are you afraid of insects? YES. ALL of them. Are you cold-natured? I’m very warm blooded, I feel like I’m always hot. I like when I’m actually cold and can wear a hoodie/sweatshirt or curl up under a blanket. How old were you when you got your first pet? We had a dog when I was a baby. Did you / do you enjoy high school? I liked parts of it. What would you say was your favorite age? Childhood. What annoys you most about social networking? Trolls, fake news, cancel culture.

Are you the center of attention most of the time? Nooo. I never want to be the center of attention. What are you currently reading? I’m starting the 2nd book in the Jack Ryder Mystery Series by Willow Rose. When did you last go to the library? Sometime back in 2014 when I was still in school. Are you ill at the moment? Not with a virus or anything like that, thankfully. I just always feel crappy for other reasons. Do people tease you about anything? How I’m too sensitive. How late did you stay up last night and why? Last night I went to bed at 4 in the morning, which is really early for me these days. Have you ever written poetry? I dabbled with it when I was 16. I still have the diary I wrote them in and yikes they’re so cringe-y haha. Curtains or shades? Curtains. How many people have you spoken to in the last hour? Zero, everyone in my house is asleep. Do you tend to text a lot? Nope. Ever lost a great best friend? Yes. What is your favorite kind of flower? Eh, I just say roses but I don’t really have one. Do you own any guns? No. What would you say is your favorite book of all-time? I could never choose. What’s your least favorite part of the day? Late evening always seems to go by really slow.

Have you ever won an award for a speech? No. Do you tend to curse a lot? Nah. Have you ever played on the Ouija board? Nooo. I don’t mess with that kind of stuff. Do you sleepwalk? Nope. Have you ever slept on the floor before? Yeah. Are you a fan of public displays of affection? I don’t care for like heavy make out sessions or groping all over each other, but I don’t care about a kiss, cuddling, or hand holding. When did you last attend a yard sale? When I was a kid. We had a family friend who had them often. What goals do you wish to accomplish tomorrow? I don’t have anything I want to accomplish tomorrow. When is your birthday? July 28th. What was the best part of today? It’s only 430 in the morning. Do you attempt to stay away from drama? Involving me yes, but I like celebrity gossip and drama. What liquid did you last drink? Starbucks Doubleshot energy drink. Do you ever prefer to be alone? Yeah, I need to have some alone time. Have you ever had a deadly animal as a pet? No. Favorite Disney movie? Alice in Wonderland, Winnie the Pooh, A Goofy Movie, and Toy Story. Have you ever been to the beach? Countless times. I love the beach. If you have, how many times have you been? ^^^^ What was your dream occupation at age ten? I wanted to be a teacher back then. Are you terrified at the idea of weight-gain? No. I’m underweight and need to gain some weight. Do you drink a lot of water? I only get like 2-3 glasses a day. :X Does your room have carpet or hard-wood floors? Carpet. Do you take naps daily? No.

Who were you named after? No one in particular. Do you plan on traveling this spring or summer? No, we’re still going to be dealing with all this. :/ Do you know anyone who is colorblind? Nope. Have you ever been a teacher’s pet? I guess so. I was always the good kid, the “pleasure to have in class.” Teachers loved me. What is your absolute favorite hobby? Reading, surveys, coloring. Ever been to a tanning bed before? No. I have no interest in that. Are you satisfied with your financial stability? I have enough to pay my bills and a little extra for other stuff, so I’m grateful for that. Who is your favorite actor / actress? Alexander Skarsgard. Are your nails painted? Nope. Do you ever accidentally talk to inanimate objects? Not accidentally, but I talk to inanimate objects when they don’t cooperate. More like talk shit, but haha. What’s your favorite flavor of ice cream? Strawberry. Have you ever kissed someone of the same gender? No. Do you receive any hate mail? No. Have you ever sent a letter in the mail? Yeah. If you could, would you have a pen pal? I did in 3rd grade. It was fun. We even got to meet them toward the end of the year during a field trip. I wouldn’t want one now, though. What color are the pants you’re wearing? I’m wearing black leggings. What is your life philosophy? Hmm. Who last sent you a goodnight text message? No one does. Do you own any clothes that are your favorite color? Yeah. One of my favorite colors is black and most of my clothes are black. I have a few items that are my other favorite colors as well. Have you ever been in a hot tub before? Once for a short time. I didn’t like it. What’s your favorite comedy movie? I have several, but the one that came to mind first was Bridesmaids. In which year were you born? 1989.

#personal #text #survey #surveys

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betelhemmakonnen · 6 years ago

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Case Study #2 “How” / “When” / “Where” / “Who” / “Why” pictures Now: Louise Lawler’s works pose the image as a question

“The situation is always part of what produces the work for me.[1]

Lawler grew up in Bronxville, New York received her B.F.A at Cornell, before moving to Manhattan in 1969. She has been exhibiting her work since the late 1970's. An act of appropriation has always been present in her practice, from the very beginning of her career, Lawler has been interested in, "borrowing something that had a different context, different meaning."[2] Lawler’s time-based work provokes questions that make the viewer reflect upon the role of images as enforced systems of meaning production – as powerful mediators for picturing / representing / imagining a presented moment. Her works appear to function as proposal’s for self-interrogations, with Art, as the proxy subject, foregrounded interrogating itself by examining its relationship to art production, action of creating, in of the power dynamics of the Art World, as the context.

Why Pictures Now, 1981. Gelatin silver print, 3 × 6 inches.

The title of the above work by Louise Lawler, Why Pictures Now, does not end in a question mark, yet the image resists a declarative reading. Much to the contrary, it operates in a radically interrogative space. Punctuation is not necessary, the image itself becomes a question. Furthermore, playing with the parts of speech, if one reads “pictures” as a verb rather than a noun, the image opens up the possibility that maybe Lawler is asking us to consider how “Why” would picture “Now” – meaning, what does it look like when we examine the present in relationship to questions rather than answers.

I chose Louise Lawler for my second case study similarly to why I chose Renée Green for my first. Lawler’s practice views arrested time as a nevertheless mobile, multi-layered spacio-temporal environment. In addition, her distinctive creation of thoughtfully constructed settings that rely on unexpected juxtapositions of appropriations and re-appropriations, induce the viewer to extend the margins of her visual perception beyond, “What” to “How”, “Who “, “Where”, “Why” and “When am I looking at?” Her viewfinder frames a subtle yet powerful disturbance that awakes our visual processing to an all-encompassing disorienting experience, both visual and cognitive, rather than acute “punctum which pricks us” with the specific it moment associated with “good pictures.”[3]

“I don't exactly think I am a photographer. I'm just trying to point things out. I never feel like I am answering anything.”[4]

In Camera Lucida, Barthes states that the photographic image, “is the absolute Particular, the sovereign Contingency [...] the This [...] the Real, in its indefatigable expression.”[5] The photographer, according to Barthes, says, "Look. Here it is."[6] Louise Lawler’s oblique lens avoids such impudent declaratives by prioritizing questions and relationality over answers and an idea of an Absolute. For Lawler, a picture is not the event but how we understand the event and what connections we make."[7] Her images are created through repeated cycle of auto-negotiations and considerations of parts and pieces previously used in different times and situations. “Look.” Lawler seems to say, “Here? It? Is?” For what we see may seem different but is the same or may seem different but is the same as before.

An act of appropriation has always been present in her practice, from the very beginning of her career, Lawler has been interested in, "borrowing something that had a different context, different meaning."[8]

Installation view of Louise Lawler- WHY PICTURES NOW. The Museum of Modern Art, New York, April 30-July 30, 2017

“Why Pictures Now,” a survey exhibition spanning more than 40 years of Louise Lawler’s work opened at the MoMa in 2017. In this exhibition were featured three (re)works that Lawler referrers to as “adjusted to fit”: Pollyanna (adjusted to fit) 2007/2008/2012, Pollyanna (adjusted to fit, distorted for the times), 2007/2008/2012/2017, and Pollyanna (traced) 2007/2008/2013. She applies the distorted effect to an older work she created between 2007 and 2012. The traced version was created in collaboration with artist and children’s book illustrator Jon Buller in 2013.

An intriguing aspect of Lawler’s practice is her process of continuously re-presenting, reframing, or restaging her work in the present, a strategy through which the artist revisits her own pictures by transferring them to different formats, from photographs to paperweights, tracings, and works that she calls “adjusted to fit.” The tracings are large-format black-and-white line versions of her photographs that eliminate color and detail, functioning instead as “ghosts” of the originals. “Adjusted to fit” images are stretched or expanded to fit the location of their display, not only suggesting the idea that pictures can have more than one life, but also underpinning the intentional, relational character of Lawler’s farsighted art. Furthermore, in keeping with Lawler’s interest in each picture’s provenance and the institutional creation of values, each label in this exhibition includes the owners of the full edition of that particular work.[9]

In her seminal text, On Photography, Susan Sontag writes that "to take a picture is to have an interest in things as they are, in the status quo remaining unchanged (at least for as long as it takes to get a "good" picture), to be in complicity with whatever makes a subject interesting, worth photographing."[10] I don’t think that this applies to Lawler’s approach to her practice in the medium of photography.

Pollyanna (adjusted to fit, distorted for the times), 2007/2008/2012/2017 adhesive wall material, variable dimensions

The Pollyanna works enthusiastically refuse all of Sontag’s declarations. With this series, Lawler plays with auto-appropriations of appropriations and adjustments as needed, again and again to question the status quo – on the macro and micro level, the particular image and the larger world in which it circulates – from different tempo-spacial perspectives rather than picturing it as a static given. Every variable present is distorted: framing, scale, material, presentation, viewing, (…). In contrast to what Sontag says, Lawler as a photographer has no interest in things as they are, including photography, photographs or photographing. The images she creates break the imposed history of picture regulations.

Pollyanna (adjusted to fit) 2007/2008/2012 As adjusted for the MoMA exhibition WHY PICTURES NOW, 2017 variable dimensions

Pollyanna (traced) 2007/2008/2013 Adhesive vinyl, variable dimensions in proportion to size of original artwork: 30 1/8 x 24 1/8 in. (76.5 x 61.3 cm)

As difficult as it sounds, Pollyanna allegedly saw the best of every situation. Could it be that with these titles, Louise Lawler intends to communicate the same sentiment? Or, are the titles communicating that no matter the distortions and exaggeration in the environment, endless adjustments and fittings are necessary to ideally engage with the present? Or, is the reference to the phenomenon another layer of distortion to further destabilize any reading of the images that confirms preexisting beliefs or hypotheses? Louise Lawler’s pictures leave me with questions without answers.

[1] “Louise Lawler at MoMA.” Art Viewer, 16 July 2017, artviewer.org/louise-lawler-at-moma/.

[2] Sontag, Susan, 1933-2004. On Photography. New York :Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 1977.

[3] Sontag, Susan, 1933-2004. On Photography. New York :Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 1977

[4] “Louise Lawler: WHY PICTURES NOW.” Lee Bontecou. Untitled. 1959 | MoMA, Apr. 2017, www.moma.org/calendar/exhibitions/1646?page=2, accessed on Nov. 10, 2018.

[5] Barthes, Roland. Camera Lucida: Reflections on Photography. New York: Hill and Wang, 1981, pg.4.

[6] ibid, pg.5.

[7] "Louise Lawler by James Welling BOMB Magazine." bombmagazine.org/articles/louise-lawler/, accessed on Nov. 12, 2018.

[8]Rachel Wolff (May 1, 2011), Impressive Proportions: Louise Lawler photographs great art—then treats it like taffy New York Magazine.

[9] Lawler, Louise. An Arrangement of Pictures. Assouline Publishing. New York. 2000.

[10] Rachel Wolff (May 1, 2011), Impressive Proportions: Louise Lawler photographs great art—then treats it like taffy New York Magazine.

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fadingpersoncollectorstuff-blog · 6 years ago

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""Has anyone bought insurance from Insphere Insurance Solutions (MEGA Life, Alliance for Affordable Services?""

I met with an agent yesterday and Googled the companies he represented, and saw so many complaints from both agents and consumers that my mind is spinning. I own a small business with only two employees. I don't want to be ripped off by some sweet talking insurance salesman, but if he is honest (chuckle) and his products are as good as he represents, then I would consider this option. If you've had any experience with these companies, I would like to hear it... good or bad. Thanks.""

Do I have to pay more for my car insurance?

I purchased a car with a car loan and I had to get full coverage insurance. I pay monthly and I have to do this for 6 months. The sixth month will be on May. I just paid off my car loan so I no longer want to pay extra money for full coverage. I had to pay a down payment for my insurance so my monthly payments would be cheaper. My question is do I have to pay another down payment if I switch to the liability coverage? Do I have to pay those last two months in order to switch to a liability coverage? I live in California.

How is the health insurance bill in the Senate going to lower costs?

Can someone explain to me how the bill going through the Senate right now does anything to control costs for the average family or person in the US? So far this is what I see: 1) If you have a good plan they are going to tax it - Raises costs 2) The insurance companies will have to cover everyone, even preexisting conditions - Raises costs 3) Cuts payouts to health providers for Medicare - Raises costs on others (they have to make it up) 4) Shifts costs to States for Medicaid - Raises state costs which raise state taxes 5) Cuts how much the Government pays for drugs - Raises cost when pharma makes up costs on private plans 6) Forces businesses to provide insurance for employees - Raises costs on all products Can anyone explain how this bill can lower costs for those who have insurance and keep them from rising? I am all for health insurance reform, these reforms just look terrible to me.""

How much does insurance cover?

I have blue cross shield insurance I am fourteen how much would I be for Invisalign On my bottom teeth? I got braces on my top years ago The insurance covered all of my tonsilectomy we paid nothing out of pocket.

Nice cars with out the insurance?

first off what is the difference between a normal cars insurance and a luxurery car like a ferrari.second, i have $100,000 and im looking for a nice fast car, but i dont want to buy a ferrari or sumthing cuz of the insurance is a lot higher i heard. i was even thinking about buying a 2009 ford f150 and souping it up with rims and everything but i'd rather a car thats really nice. does anybody have any ideas for a nice fast car with normal insurance?""

Should Keep or Look into term Life Insurance Quotes?

I have a whole life policy which I have been paying 45.00 per month for 16 yrs. I have to pay this amount until age 99 so they say. The amount it was for when I bought it was 50,000. It builds cash value. I am now 62. Should I keep this policy or look into term insurance?""

alabama insurance license check

Does anyone know how much insurance would be on a Toyota Celica ?

This is in ireland but england cant be that different. I would be a new driver and only 17 years old and it would be by myself (not a named driver). And I'm a girl if that would change anything. Thanks xx

Best car to insure in GTA 5 online?

I need a car to insure and upgrade but not sure which one is the best help?

Insurance For Aprilia RS50: Im 16?

im 16 and im going to get an aprilia RS50 and i was woundering how much the insurance would be?? also? how much would the insurance be on a 50cc moped?

What are the best car insurance comparison sites you have used in London?

How much does renters insurance usually run?

I'm 25 and this is a pretty new concept to me. My new landlord (a management company) suggested that everyone get it For our own Protection. I just need a ball park number. Thanks.

Help! I need auto insurance fast?

I'm 23 years old and need auto insurance immediately. I live in California and would prefer to have nationwide coverage. I am single, no kids. I'm really considering liability or something low-end because insurance here is a lot more than what I was paying in Pennsylvania. I am also a full-time student and heard that might get me a discount with some agencies. Any advice?""

Renting an Apartment: Is this cost per month affordable for my budget?

The apartment's rent is $750 a month...I'm living with 2 other roommates, so we are dividing that cost three ways. We'll each owe $250 a month...plus electric ($35 - $50 a month), plus cable t.v. ($30 - $40 a month), plus WiFi internet ($30 - $40 a month). So all together, each of us will owe around $275 a month, roughly. I make $32,000 a year before taxes and health insurance...I make a $250 car payment per month, and car insurance is $1000 (+ or -) for 6 months. This is my first time renting (I'm 20), so I want to be sure that I can afford this apartment.""

What would be the average price of car insurance for me?

- Full Time student with decent grades (will be better when my latest semester grades are recorded) got - a Honda Accord 2 dr coupe - I got a ticket before that was failure to observe signal - I only want to insure this one, and its only me T""

Can I help a friend with high car insurance?

I've got my own car, i'm 30, and am insured on it obviously, but a friend who is only 20 has just brought a modified car, and the insurance is quite high. Can I be the main driver on his car insurance and then he be added to the policy, and would this lower the price? or if I can't be the main named driver, can I be added to it and would this lower the amount?? Just trying to help him out really, he's skint until the end of the year, and didn't realise the insurance would be so high!! Cheerz Silver""

What will happen if I don't sign up for covered california health insurance?

I live in ca, I don't have healthcare and I am eligible for covered ca health insurance. What will happen if I don't sign up for it? Do I have too? Will I get in trouble if I don't?""

Report to insurance or not?

i was driving down the freeway yesterday and a rock hit my windshield. it now has two huge cracks. and i have to get it replaced i know it cant be repaired. my deductible on my insurance is $500, should i report it to the insurance or not? would it be cheaper to just fix it myself?""

About how much does motorcycle insurance cost?

and is it more than car?...about...

How much will i save on my progressive auto insurance by parking in a garage?

is it a big savings? any estimated dollar amnt? i live in an average sized city in MN if that makes any difference

I am 16 almost 17 and am looking for a car and am wondering what the insurance rats would be on a porsche 944

this would be my second car and its a really nice 1985 Porsche 944 (non-turbo) it has only 67K miles on it and is in excellent shape I am just wondering if my insurance would go up i pay about 130 $ a month on a Pontiac grand am ... would it go up? if so do you know how much?

Does Wal-Mart have better and cheaper insurance than Obamacare?

http://www.examiner.com/article/washington-examiner-walmart-s-health-plans-are-better-than-obamacare On Jan. 7, 2013, The Washington Examiner released the results of an investigation finding Walmart's employee health insurance is significantly better than Obamacare. Walmart has come under mega union labor union criticism as a retailer whose employees are both underpaid and mistreated. Like many insurance plans which have been canceled as a result of Obamacare benefit regulations, Walmart's health insurance has been called substandard. However after an in-depth comparison, the watch dog team of the Washington Examiner discovered employees of Walmart receive a better bang for the buck than Obamacare. In comparison to Obama care, it was discovered that Walmart plans were a whopping five to nine times less expensive. Full-service individual coverage in a Walmart HRA plan is available through a Blue Cross Blue Shield preferred provider organization for as little as $40 a month while family coverage averages $160 a month.""

WHo LOVES Mercury Auto insurance and the alien commercials? lol Whats your favorite commercial?

Mercury Insurance rates are soo low that they are run by Aliens from the planet mercury lol This model simulation represents the facility and their landing site lol How about the Comcast Commercials? lol I was super high one time and saw the Turtles and was hellaaa freaked out lol.

What is the cheapest car insurance you can buy?

Age 20's, I want to buy cheapest insurance possible. I don't care about coverage for myself, I just want it legal to drive.""

How can the cost of health insurance decrease a company's income?

so, a company helps pay off people's premiums by paying off a certain percentage. but the insurance cost is rising, so the amount the company pays off for employees is also rising. well, other than the fact that insurance rates exceeding income rates affect a company's income (because of premiums etc), what other evidence can support the fact that health insurance decreases a companys income?""

Should I put a claim in with my auto insurance?

Today at a light a car rear ended me. My rear bumper has some small scratches and some paint marks from the other car. No dents or anything else. the car that hit me seemed to have worse damage to his front bumper. We called the police and they did a report. The other guy said he is not going to put in a claim with his insurance. He admitted fault and apologized over and over. I was wondering if it is worth me putting in a claim with my insurance? I don't want my rates to go up and even though I am not at fault, i wonder how aggressively my insurance will pursue a claim with the other guy's insurance since damage is so minor. I actually wonder if it was worth calling the police, when I really think about it. I was just shaken up at the time. I think re painting the bumper would actually be less than my deductible. I don't really have any pain and no noticeable injuries. I had a friend say I should put in a claim for minor back pain, but even if i was in minor pain, i have heard the 10,000 most companies give always go to lawyers and chiropractors I don't want to lie and don't want to spend time going to chiropractors too end up not getting anything and still having to pay to repaint bumper, have my rates go up and be aggravated. any advice?""

Im looking for people with private health insurance or no insurance?

if you have medicare, medicaid, or group insurance at work, dont answer. was it difficult to get insurance? who is ur carrier? do you have pre existing conditions?""

Insurance quotes for subaru wrx or acura rsx?

i am 18 and have my license for 1 year , no tickets no anything good grades . Wich would cost more the rsx or the wrx , whats the price range for each a month .thanks""

How much does a No Insurance ticket from the police cost in Illinois?

I got a no insurance ticket about 2-2 1/2 years ago along with a no registration ticket. The car wasn't mine and I didn't know that the car had no insurance/registration. I live in Illinois by Chicago, so it may be different. I just found out that they suspended my license about 3-4 months ago, because I never went to court for the tickets.""

""Is it true that the older the car, the lower the insurance cost?""

My dad has a car that is 4 years old, it is a subaru outback, with 200,000+miles on it (not a typo, he drives it all over the eastern coast). Now would the subarus insurance cost(total) be lower than if i bought my own used car?""

How much is motorcycle insurance for a 24 yr old in NJ? How does it compare to car insurance?

I can get quotes but just want to get a quick rough estimate answer. And does nj provide refund for motorcycle courses to take to pass the licence? for ex. I know illinois do

Insurance with a permit?

so i have my permit, and i can now start driving on the road, so i was wondering if i need insurance for me. the car i'm gonna be driving is already insured, so do i need insurance for myself.""

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What is the cheapest auto insurance?

Is it better to repair cars with insurance company or known mechanic?

I met with an accident the other day where a drunk guy hit me at the rear end of my totyotal avalon. there is considerable body work to be done. i dont know if there may be any ...show more

How much will my insurance cost?

I like in Florida, I own a 87' thunderbird no replacement coverage, I haven't been in any accidents, have no tickets and I took drivers ed, I've been driving for over a year and I want to be able to own my car so when I'm 18 my parents can't tell me I can't go out. How much will the monthly payments be on that?""

Buy a car + insurance?

Hi i live in Toronto and i was looking to buy a car, the thing is i just recently moved to Canada and have no experience of this stuff, i didn't own an auto mobile back home. I also don't have that many reliable and truly trust able friends that i can turn to for help, and no relatives. So i turn to yahoo answers in my time of need. I need to know what the process of buy a car is and when and how do i get insurance on my car, I just turned 18 and would like my own car. And do you guys gave any suggestions for first cars? any tips? all help is appreciated.""

Will one accident and citation make ur car insurance go up?If so how much?

Im a 23 yr old guy and ive only been insured for a month, will my insurance rate go up immediantly?If so,how much?""

Is it illegal to fake my GPA for lower car insurance?

if so, can they do anything about it, like take me to court or have me arrested? i ****** up my fist semester of college and now that i have my license i have to get insurance. my dad said i better have at least a 3.0 or else.. should i just do it?""

Cheap car insurance for a 17 year old boy on a UK full licence?

do you know any cheap insurance providers who could give a reasonable quote for a 17 year old, with a pass plus on a full UK licence, as go compare is giving quotes of 3000+ which if far too much for a student, plus this is only third party, please help!""

""In Maryland, is insurance required to drive a car?""

I'm going to be living on my own soon and there's no possible way I can afford it on my own. By the way, does anyone know how much it costs to be insured as an 18 year old on your own policy? What about for a motorcycle?""

Can I get Classic Car insurance?

I'm 16 and have been looking at a lot of classic cars (specifically a 1971-1973 Mustang Mach 1) and ran into a bit of a dilemma... My dad is a car dealer, owning his own used dealership, so he has insurance that covers all the cars, rather than just one. But, you have to be 18 to be under that policy, so I can't be on it, and I've heard that unless you're under you parents policy, you can't have classic car insurance until you're 25. But, I heard that you can get liability only (Which is my state's minimum coverage), so I was wondering if that was true. Would I be able to get just liability on a classic car? Or should I just cut out all the complicated stuff and get a modern car?""

How can low-income people *afford* lower cost health insurance?

Huckleberry suggested that low-income people will be able to afford low-cost private health insurance--but he doesn't say *how* that will be possible. Guliani says that with tax credits, people will be able to afford low-cost insurance. (How is that possible?) I haven't figured what the other GOP candidates want, but how can low-income people--and those on disability--be able to afford expensively HUGE health-insurance plans on what little money that is already afforded to them per month?""

Car Insurance (No car)?

So this might sound a bit dumb, but I was wondering what are the steps to getting car insurance before you own a car. The problem I have is I am afraid of wrecking the car on the drive home from car lot and not having insurance!""

What is The Cheapest Auto Insurance for A Beginner?

....

Can someone who smokes marijuana get affordable life insurance?

How much does it cost to insure a child care center?

I am enrolled in a college course called Administration of Early Childhood Programs. My final project is creating my own child care center (the project covers everything and is very detailed so we can use our materials if we actually do open up a center). Anyways, I am stuck on one part of my budget. I have been researching for hours and cannot find what my estimated cost of what liability insurance would cost me per year. Because this business does not actually exist I am having difficulties obtaining a quote from insurance companies. My center is licensed for 140 children at one time. If anyone has an estimated cost or a source that would give me an average cost per child or an insurance estimate calculator or anything like that would really help. Thanks!""

Cheap car insurance?......?

I need to get car insurance to put the title in my name. I am just looking for the cheapest thing out there right now, not too concerned with full coverage right now, just the basics. I will do research and get the one that best suits me later but for right now I just need something fast. Geico's rates were over $100/mo for my car, is that about average? Or is there something cheaper?""

Do I need car insurance if I drive on a learner's permit with a parent?

Also, do I need car insurance if I drive with a driver's license and with a parent. Also, this car is not mine, it is my parents.""

What does 1000 or 500 deductible mean when you're getting car insurance?

Before I get my car insurance I would like to know what this means,and what is better.""

Why is motorcycle insurance insane for everything but cruiser types?

I called Geico and they quoted me on a bunch of motorcycles. Cruisers were the only reasonable ones, but I thought the other types (sport, standard, touring, offroad) that I got quotes on were riduculously high! I even asked about the ninja 250 and that was 4 times the amount of a 750 shadow. How is that possible?""

Car insurance at 20 on average?

How much would car insurance be for me if i only have my licence for 2 months before i get a car and i am 20 years old?. The car would be minimum a 1.2 litre and maximum a 1.6 litre so what would a 1.2 litre, 1.4 litre and 1.6 litre cost me on average?.""

Cost of Car insurance for new driver 30yr old Female?

Hi am about to start lessons on learning to drive, and was wondering if anyone knows the cost it would be for car insurance for a new driver annually, car will probably be 1.4, I am female, 29/30 years old. Thanks""

How much will insurance cost me on a 1.6 Ford capri?

A year from now I hope to pass my driving test (hopefully with a pass pluss), in which case I will be 17 years of age and it would be my first car.""

Can you take a rental car when you do not have any personal vehicle or auto insurance?

I do not have any car insurance right now. I am planning to get a car rental for a month. Do I need to get some insurance for this? What happens if cop pulls me up will rental agreement be sufficient?

Insurance Increase for a newer car Regal to Focus?

I had a 1999 Buick Regal Supercharged and switched to a 2002 Ford Focus SE. This resulted in my insurance going from 750 to 1000$ for the year. Any ideas why this may be, as far as I see the Focus should be safer and have more features resulting in lower insurance. According to my insurance company apparently it was rated as being less safe. (no coverages were changed on the insurance just the price increased) Any ideas would be much appreciated.""

Do I need car insurance ?

Ok so u just got my learners permit today and my mom said she's pretty sure I don't need car insurance that I'm automatically covered since I'm a minor and can only drive in the car when they are in it so am I covered I live in Tampa Florida if that matters I just want to start driving immediately but dad says I need to make sure I'm under his policy so I can drive

How is GEICO Auto Insurance?

I am shopping around for auto insurance and so far Geico is the cheapest auto insurance I have got. They are offering $1142 for my '99 Camry full coverage when Amica wants $1175, Commerce $1255, and Travelers' wants $1309. But I have heard a lot of negative feedback about Geico's claim service. Does anyone have any idea how true those negative feedbacks are. Should I go with Amica instead of Geico?""

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List of health insurance in the phils?

i am looking for less expensive medical insurance coverage

How much is car insurance in nyc?

Im 23 years this is my first car ever a 1998 FORD EXPEDITION wanted to now how much car insurance im looking at.

Auto Insurance ? Never had it. Can anybody help.?

I have called for quotes.. to many auto insurance companies. But since this my first time purchase I am confused, Can someone break down the features of a policy, what am i to have, what is reccomended. thanks , any details will help.""

Where can I find cheap car insurance for my BMW 7 Series car?

Hi. I just bought a BMW 135i Convertible. Where can I find cheap car insurance for this car? I've checked the major ones like Geico but the quotes they list out are pretty expensive in my opinion.

How much will a Toyota Spyder increase my insurance?

I'm looking to buy a 2000 Toyota Spyder. But i'm only 20 years old, so i'm questioning whether or not it is a good idea! Its will cost me about $10,000 after tax + the insurance. I'm not so worried about the actually cost of the car, because I can make about a 60% downpayment, and take out a small loan for the rest... But the insurance is the big issue...""

Is Future Generali(Future group) insurance good?

Hi, I am planning to take a life insurance policy, can I go for Future group's new venture Future Generali or is it safe to go with LIC.Kindly suggest me on the basis of how good they're in Service, and claims. Thanks, Jagadish""

How much Insurance do I need to pay for a 2.5 million hause.?

Insurance company totalled my car.?

I was recently in a minor accident in which someone backed into me. Their insurance company accepted 100% of the liability. They are telling me that they are deeming it as a total loss. My question is, once they determine the actual cash value of the car, minus the salvage and give me the difference, will my title be a salvaged title? I live in Missouri and drive a 2000 Oldsmobile Alero. I couple of different people have informed me that beings my car is over 7 years old it will NOT have a salvaged title but according to the insurance company it will. Also do I get the actual cash value minus the salvage amount or do I get the repair estimate amount minus the salvage amount? The car is completely drivable and only has a minor crack in the bumper along with a puncture in the a/c condenser which I can have replaced. I want to keep the car.""

Do I need insurance ?

I'm 16 I'm starting my own lawn care Business Do I need Insurance In case I hit something and does my car Insurance cover snow plowing

Which health insurance is cheaper and useful?

I am living in Carlisle, PA. I am currently on unemployment compensation. I need a health plan for me and my wife very affordable. I have filled quotes over internet and I have to ...show more""

Insuring a new driver?

I will be soon getting my license (California), however I will not immediately be purchasing my own car. I am sixteen and I will most likely be driving one of my parents cars in the interim. Now here's my problem. My dad owns and e55 and my mom owns a 328. My mom commutes every day so driving her car is off the table. My dad almost never has to go anywhere in his car as he is currently on disability. The only problem is insuring me on the e55 will cost a fortune. My dad currently has the car insured under State Farm and their quick estimate say's I'd be paying nearly $600 a month. Now, I know there are multiple discounts I can apply for, but I'm not exactly sure what I'm eligible for. Since this would be a shared policy as a part time driver, would it be significantly cheaper? I'm just looking for options here, my dad wants me out of his hair but he also wants me to be paying insurance. I make enough that I could just barely afford $500 a month but that would leave me with no expendable income so.... help. Thanks.""

Are there any groups you can join that offers group health insurance?

Or some insurance co that does not ask for a ten year history?

""Health insurance starts in 10 days, but I am sick now. Will they reimburse me?""

If I went to the doctor now, would I be able to submit a claim for reimbursement? My insurance is Aetna. I called them, but they are closed because it is Sunday. Answers/suggestions are appreciated.""

Can you switch car insurance companies easily?

I bought a car last night and am picking it up today in Nova Scotia. I called around to a number of companies for insurance and got a quote that seemed reasonable. I went down today and signed the paperwork and was given the temporary insurance card and they faxed paperwork to the dealership and the dealership to them and it is all worked out. However I got a call back a few hours later from another broker quoting me a lot less. I had her verify with the company and they said yes. But I have already signed the other stuff. The one I have now is going to be monthly and the first payment should not come out till about the 15th and be the first and last payment for the month. if I switch and they have already taken the payment do I get the last month back? Can I pretty much switch at any time? Anyone know how that works? I'm a newbie at buying a vehicle an thought I had done my homework but apparently not.

How much is motorcycle insurance?

im about to turn 18 and im planing to get a sport bike but i want to know how much the insurance will cost me

Low Repair Estimate How to Go After Insurance Company?

I hit a car at its back and caused cracks on its rear bumper. It is my fault and my insurance company supposed to pay for the repair since I have liability insurance with them. But the estimate from my insurance company for the other car came out much lower than the estimates the other party got from other body shops. And now the other party comes after me and they said they gonna sue me. I would like to know how can I push my insurance company to come up more. Thanks!

All nevada insurance?

All Nevada Insurance at Martin Luther King Blvd., Las Vegas, Nevada 89106. Have they moved?""

Car accident insurance question?

Last week someone backed up into my bumper while my car was parked. They were very nice and left a note, and we were in the middle of sorting things out. I got an estimate for the damage, but we had not yet done anything with their insurance company yet. Today my boyfriend was driving my car, and he spun out and totaled the car. His insurance should be able to cover it, but how should I go about for the insurance with the first person? Do I need to tell them about the accident or is it not necessary? We haven't yet filed the insurance and so I don't know if it will be a problem. Any help is appreciated.. thanks""

What can I do about this insurance/car accident?

Recently, my husband was hit in my car while going through a green light. The girl didn't see him as he was going through and turned and hit him. Now we are fighting with her crappy insurance. They are trying to say we are 25% liable and they will only pay 75% to fix our car. They are trying to say my husband should have been more cautious going through the light. It was a green light! So, what, we are supposed to treat stoplights like stop signs now? How ridiculous. My question is, what can I do to get my car 100% paid for and do they even have the right to claim who is liable or not? Isn't that the cops job? My husband decided to be nice and not have the cop issue her a ticket. Was that a bad idea? I mean, she turned into him. How much more cautious could my husband have been? He hit his brakes but by that time it was too late. This insurance company is saying he should have tried harder to avoid the accident. What else could one possibly do!?""

What is the average cost in california for a 600cc motorcycle insurance as first vehicle(18 year old)?

Im trying to figure out how much im going to pay for 600cc motorcycle insurance(minimum insurance not full cover).i am 18 years old and it is going to be my first vehicle.

Will affordable health act help or hurt people who want to retire early?

Say you are in your late 50's or early 60's and wants and have enough money to retire, but was waiting because of health insurance issues and was going to wait till 65. With the affordable care act most likely going to proceed, will this help those people who probably have pre-existing conditions and of course old get a better deal on health insurance if affordable care act was not passed? To my simple mind, I would have to say yes. And I imagine a lot of people are going to take advantage of this and retire early.""

People who cant afford health insurance are quacks?

i see the merits of having universal health care, kind of, but it seems to me that the problem is a lot of middle class citizens who just decide nto to purchase health insurance on the premise that they cannot afford it , and instead opt to buy material goods that are solely for luxury. you cant go out and buy nice cars and houses and bypass health insurance and then cry it off that the government should give free care to everryone.......i definitely agree it should be cheaper for the poor etc. bottom line: ppl need to realize health is the most important thing in there life, and satisfy that need, before thinking about personal possesions (nice cars etc)""

Lapse in health insurance?

My husband is about to have a lapse in health insurance, for about 4 months? Reasons being, because I am pregnant, and no insurance company will cover an expectant father. We will be getting him covered once the baby comes. What are the reprecussions for having a lapse in health insurance? He has no pre-existing conditions and is very healthy.""

Insurance for GSX-R600 does make and CCs matter?

Say if you had a 750 would it drasically spike the insurance as if you would have bought a 600 instead? What are all the factors that insurance companies go through to give you a quote? What questions are asked? If you could answer this too it would be great :) Make/model of bike: Age: CCs: YO experience: Thank you!

I just gave up my car and turned in my insurance?

I just gave up my car and turned in my insurance .I will drive my childrens cars from time to time .My insurance coverage was adequate and included an auto liability of $1,000,000.bodily inj of $1,000,000 and property damage the same .Since my children have only the minimum ,how can I continue to get the same protection when driving their cars.""

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-does-anyone-complain-insurance-companies-ryan-walsh/"

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mostfunnystuff247-blog · 6 years ago

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Anthony Bourdain Has Died At The Age Of 61

Celebrities & Pop Culture Our hearts go out to his family and friends. CNN 2018-06-08

Getty Images | Robin Marchant Anthony Bourdain, a gifted storyteller and writer who took CNN viewers around the world, has died. He was 61. CNN confirmed Bourdain’s death on Friday and said the cause of death was suicide. “It is with extraordinary sadness we can confirm the death of our friend and colleague, Anthony Bourdain,” the network said in a statement Friday morning. “His love of great adventure, new friends, fine food and drink and the remarkable stories of the world made him a unique storyteller. His talents never ceased to amaze us and we will miss him very much. Our thoughts and prayers are with his daughter and family at this incredibly difficult time.” Bourdain was in France working on an upcoming episode of his award-winning CNN series “Parts Unknown.” His close friend Eric Ripert, the French chef, found Bourdain unresponsive in his hotel room Friday morning. “Tony was an exceptional talent,” CNN President Jeff Zucker said in an email to employees. “Tony will be greatly missed not only for his work but also for the passion with which he did it.” Bourdain was a master of his crafts — first in the kitchen and then in the media. Through his TV shows and books, he explored the human condition and helped audiences think differently about food, travel and themselves. He advocated for marginalized populations and campaigned for safer working conditions for restaurant staffs. Along the way, he received practically every award the industry has to offer. In 2013, Peabody Award judges honored Bourdain and “Parts Unknown” for “expanding our palates and horizons in equal measure.” “He’s irreverent, honest, curious, never condescending, never obsequious,” the judges said. “People open up to him and, in doing so, often reveal more about their hometowns or homelands than a traditional reporter could hope to document.” The Smithsonian once called him “the original rock star” of the culinary world, “the Elvis of bad boy chefs.” In 1999 he wrote a New Yorker article, “Don’t Eat Before Reading This,” that became a best-selling book in 2000, “Kitchen Confidential: Adventures in the Culinary Underbelly.” The book set him on a path to international stardom. First he hosted “A Cook’s Tour” on the Food Network, then moved to “Anthony Bourdain: No Reservations” on the Travel Channel. “No Reservations” was a breakout hit, earning two Emmy Awards and more than a dozen nominations. In 2013 both Bourdain and CNN took a risk by bringing him to the news network still best known for breaking news and headlines. Bourdain quickly became one of the principal faces of the network and one of the linchpins of the prime time schedule. Season 11 of “Parts Unknown” premiered on CNN last month. While accepting the Peabody award in 2013, Bourdain described how he approached his work. “We ask very simple questions: What makes you happy? What do you eat? What do you like to cook? And everywhere in the world we go and ask these very simple questions,” he said, “we tend to get some really astonishing answers.” Bourdain’s death happened after fashion designer Kate Spade hanged herself in an apparent suicide at her Manhattan apartment on Tuesday. Suicide is a growing problem in the United States. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention published a survey Thursday showing suicide rates increased by 25% across the United States over nearly two decades ending in 2016. Twenty-five states experienced a rise in suicides by more than 30%, the government report finds. How to get help: Call the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline at 1-800-273-8255. Story by Brian Stelter for CNN. The-CNN-Wire ™ & © 2018 Cable News Network, Inc., a Time Warner Company. All rights reserved. Sponsored Content Previous post Sandra Bullock Opens Up About Her Path To Adoption In An Emotional Interview Next post 4 discounted summer movie offers for kids at theaters near you Read the full article

#Celebrities&PopCulture #Entertainment #News

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blackkudos · 7 years ago

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Carrie Mae Weems

Carrie Mae Weems (born April 20, 1953) is an American artist who works with text, fabric, audio, digital images, and installation video but is best known for her work in the field of photography. Her award-winning photographs, films, and videos have been displayed in over 50 exhibitions in the United States and abroad and focus on serious issues that face African Americans today, such as racism, sexism, politics, and personal identity.

She has said, "Let me say that my primary concern in art, as in politics, is with the status and place of Afro-Americans in our country." More recently however, she expressed that “Black experience is not really the main point; rather, complex, dimensional, human experience and social inclusion ... is the real point.”

Early life and education

Weems was born in Portland, Oregon, in 1953, the second of seven children to Carrie Polk and Myrlie Weems. She began participating in dance and street theater in 1965. At the age of 16 she gave birth to her first and only child, a daughter named Faith C. Weems. Later that year she moved out of her parent's home and soon relocated to San Francisco to study modern dance with Anna Halprin at a workshop Halprin had started with several other dancers, as well as the artists John Cage and Robert Morris. She decided to continue her arts schooling and attended the California Institute of the Arts, Valencia, graduating at the age of 28 with her B.A. She received her MFA from the University of California, San Diego. Weems also participated in the folklore graduate program at the University of California, Berkeley.

While in her early twenties, Carrie Mae Weems was politically active in the labor movement as a union organizer. Her first camera, which she received as a birthday gift, was used for this work before being used for artistic purposes. She was inspired to pursue photography after she came across The Black Photography Annual, a book of images by African-American photographers including Shawn Walker, Beuford Smith, Anthony Barboza, Ming Smith, Adger Cowans, and Roy DeCarava, who Weems found inspiring. This led her to New York City, and the Studio Museum in Harlem, where she began to meet other artists and photographers such as Coreen Simpson and Frank Stewart, and they began to form a community. In 1976 Weems took a photography class at the Museum taught by Dawoud Bey. She returned to San Francisco, but lived bi-coastally and was involved with the Studio Museum and a community of photographers in New York.

Career and work

In 1983, Carrie Mae Weems completed her first collection of photographs, text, and spoken word, called Family Pictures and Stories. The images told the story of her family, and she has said that in this project she was trying to explore the movement of black families out of the South and into the North, using her family as a model for the larger theme. Her next series, called Ain't Jokin', was completed in 1988. It focused on racial jokes and internalized racism. Another series called American Icons, completed in 1989, also focused on racism. Weems has said that throughout the 1980s she was turning away from the documentary photography genre, instead "creating representations that appeared to be documents but were in fact staged" and also "incorporating text, using multiples images, diptychs and triptychs, and constructing narratives." Sexism was the next focal point for her. It was the topic of one of her most well known collections called The Kitchen Table series which was completed in 1990. About Kitchen Table and Family Pictures and Stories, Weems has said, "I use my own constructed image as a vehicle for questioning ideas about the role of tradition, the nature of family, monogamy, polygamy, relationships between men and women, between women and their children, and between women and other women—underscoring the critical problems and the possible resolves." She has expressed disbelief and concern about the exclusion of images of the black community, particularly black women, from the popular media, and aims to represent these excluded subjects and speak to their experience through her work. Weems has also reflected on the themes and inspirations of her work as a whole, saying,

...from the very beginning, I've been interested in the idea of power and the consequences of power; relationships are made and articulated through power. Another thing that's interesting about the early work is that even though I've been engaged in the idea of autobiography, other ideas have been more important: the role of narrative, the social levels of humor, the deconstruction of documentary, the construction of history, the use of text, storytelling, performance, and the role of memory have all been more central to my thinking than autobiography.

Other series created by Weems include: the Sea Island Series (1991-92), the Africa Series (1993), From Here I Saw What Happened and I Cried (1995-96), Who What When Where (1998), Ritual & Revolution (1998), the Louisiana Project (2003), Roaming (2006), and the Museum Series, which she began in 2007. Her most recent project, Grace Notes: Reflections for Now, is a multimedia performance that explores "the role of grace in the pursuit of democracy."

In her almost 30-year career, Carrie Mae Weems has won numerous awards. She was named Photographer of the Year by the Friends of Photography. In 2005, she was awarded the Distinguished Photographer's Award in recognition of her significant contributions to the world of photography. Her talents have also been recognized by numerous colleges, including Harvard University and Wellesley College, with fellowships, artist-in-residence and visiting professor positions. She taught photography at Hampshire College in the late 1980s. She was awarded a MacArthur Foundation Fellowship in 2013. In 2015 Weems was named a Ford Foundation Art of Change Fellow. In September 2015, the Hutchins Center for African & African American Research presented her with the W. E. B. Du Bois Medal.

The first comprehensive retrospective of her work opened in September 2012 at the Frist Center for the Visual Arts in Nashville, Tennessee, as a part of the center's exhibition Carrie Mae Weems: Three Decades of Photography and Video. Curated by Katie Delmez, the exhibition ran until January 13, 2013 and later traveled to Portland Art Museum, Cleveland Museum of Art, and the Cantor Center for Visual Arts. The 30-year retrospective exhibition opened in January 2014 at the Solomon R. Guggenheim Museum in New York City. Weems' work returned to the Frist in October 2013 as a part of the center's 30 Americans gallery, alongside black artists ranging from Jean-Michel Basquiat to Kehinde Wiley.

Weems' work is included in collections all over the world including the Metropolitan Museum of Art and the Museum of Modern Art ([1] ), New York; the Museum of Fine Arts, Houston ([2] ); the Minneapolis Institute of Arts ([3] ), the Cleveland Museum of Art ([4] ), the Portland Art Museum ([5] ), The Tate Museum In London ( [6])and the Museum of Contemporary Art, Los Angeles ( [7]). Weems has been represented by Jack Shainman Gallery since 2008 ([8] ).

A full-color, visual book, titled Carrie Mae Weems, was published by Yale University Press in October 2012. The book offers the first major survey of Weems' career and includes a collection of essays from leading and emerging scholars in addition to over 200 of Weems' most important works. The book is currently out of print

Weems lives in Brooklyn and Syracuse, New York, with her husband Jeffrey Hoone. She continues to produce art that provides social commentary on the experiences of people of color, especially black women, in America.

Exhibitions

Solo presentations of her work at museums have included exhibitions at:

Frist Center for the Visual Arts. Nashville, TN (2012)

Portland Art Museum, Portland, OR (2013)

Cleveland Museum of Art. Cleveland, OH (2013)

Iris & B. Gerald Cantor Center for Visual Arts. Stanford, CA (2013)

Solomon R. Guggenheim Museum. New York, NY (2014)

Awards

2016 National Artist Award, Anderson Ranch Arts Center [9]

2015 W.E.B. Du Bois Medal from Harvard University [10]

2015 Ford Foundation Art of Change Fellow ( [11])

2015 ICP Spotlights Award from the International Center of Photography. [12]

2014 BET Visual Arts Award [13]

2013 MacArthur Fellow, "Genius" Award [14]

2013 Congressional Black Caucus Foundation’s Lifetime Achievement Award [15]

2005 Distinguished Photographers Award ([16] )

Bibliography

Carrie Mae Weems: Three Decades of Photography and Video, edited by Kathryn E. Delmez, Nashville, TN: Frist Center for the Visual Arts; New Haven, CT: in association with Yale University Press, 2012.

Carrie Mae Weems, Carrie Mae Weems: the Louisiana Project, New Orleans, LA: Newcomb Art Gallery, Tulane University, 2004.

Vivan Patterson, Carrie Mae Weems: the Hampton Project, with essays by Frederick Rudolph, Constance W. Glenn, Deborah Willis-Kennedy, Jeanne Zeidler; interview by Denise Ramzy and Katherine Fogg, New York: Aperture; Williamstown, MA: Williams College Museum of Art, 2000.

bell hooks, "Carrie Mae Weems: Diasporic Landscapes of Longing", in Catherine de Zegher (ed.), Inside the Visible, MIT Press, 1996.

Brian Wallis, "Black Bodies, White Science: The Slave Daguerreotypes of Louis Agassiz," The Journal of Blacks in Higher Education, (Summer, No. 12, 1996), 102-106.

Nueva Luz photographic journal, Volume 2#4 (En Foco Inc, Bronx: 1989).

Wikipedia

#Carrie Mae Weems #04-20

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spajonas · 7 years ago

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Happy 4th Anniversary In Publishing!

Here we are! I have made it four years in this business, amazingly so. Can you believe it? I can’t. Some days I feel like I’m still a brand new author! I went back and re-read last year’s post to get a handle on how things have been since then and I’m surprised by how positive I was. I had a rough 3rd year and I was able to put a real positive spin on it. This year was equally hard, and I do have a few positive things to say, but I also have to reset expectations for the coming year.

Here is the TL;DR for below, in case you need it. I’m pulling back to part-time status, and I’ll only be publishing three books per year.

Please feel free to go back and check out my posts from Year One, Year Two, and Year Three if you want to see how far I’ve come. As ever, I will do my best to be as honest and transparent as possible.

• • • •

It’s my fourth year in this business, and again, I invested everything I made back into the business

Which means I wasn’t able to pay myself a wage again. In gross terms, I did better than the year before. My gross was around $3500 (for the whole year) but I spent almost all of that on ads. Despite working hard on every bit of ads, they don’t seem to have made a difference.

Just take a look at my top earning book for the year, and then the bottom earning book.

There’s a big difference here, and the book that I spent the most money on, SUMMER HAIKUS, between the covers, blog tour, ads, and editors, only sold ONE book in a whole year. ONE.

This is because visibility is hard to come by. And if you’re a small fry author like me, you have to pay for it. At this point, I don’t think it’s worth it.

Here’s why… I never saw any sell through to my other books. If I were gaining new readers who were interested in me, they’d be buying up my back list. And that just isn’t happening.

Every day, I see authors I know making $10k a month and not spending that much on ads. Then I know plenty others that ARE spending a lot of money on ads, but they’re making a healthy profit, an ROI of 150% or more. Then I meet new authors who have two or three books out and they’re making a few grand per month. Many of them without any prior platform or audience. Huh? Wow. That’s awesome, but that’s so not me, and I don’t know how to change it without fundamentally altering everything that I write or care about.

Information on how to really succeed and get somewhere in this business, besides knowing the basics and doing ads, is confusing and contradictory. One person says it’s all about ads. Another says it’s all about writing to market. Another swears by hand-selling at conventions. I was in a fairly popular author group earlier this year run by a NY Times Bestseller, and she said she doesn’t do any advertising. She told me personally, replying directly to my comment, that HER method works and it sells books. I was skeptical but excited that she was talking directly to me. I wanted to know what her method was! I want to write and reach my audience without having to constantly tweak and write ads. I asked her, “What’s your method? I’m excited to learn!” Nothing. She never responded. This is probably because she’s putting together a course to sell to authors and doesn’t want to give the information away for free. I see it happen all the time.

Okay then. Moving on.

I’m treading water and it’s exhausting

So, I have decided to scale back and make this whole publishing thing more of a part time job.

Why? Because it’s obvious I’m not getting anywhere. I’m treading water. How long can you tread water? Me, only about a two years before I begin to question my sanity. I love writing and I love the series I’ve created and the series I want to write, so I’m not going to stop, but something has to give.

Let’s look at some of the reasons I’ve decided to scale back…

1) I can’t write fast. I’ve tried to write fast and it all comes out like crap, even with revisions. I will NOT write crap for you all. I refuse to give you an inferior product. That’s my solemn promise.

2) I can’t grow my advanced reader team because no one new wants to leave reviews. I’ve asked my mailing list several times for advanced readers. Either no one signs up or I get one or two people who have never even read my work, want free books, and don’t know how to review on Amazon. I think that’s a sign.

3) I can’t seem to grow my newsletter with people who are interested in me and my work, not just free books. I did a reader survey this past year and a sizable amount of people on my list have never read one of my books. A large number of people indicated they would never pay for my books. And then, I get people who email me and tell me they want more free books. I already give away a lot of books, but they want more which I can’t sustain.

4) I spend tons of money advertising my books and I don’t make back my money. I was basically losing my shirt every month on ads the earlier part of this year. I’ve had to stop Facebook ads, and I’m scaling back my Amazon ads to manageable amounts. Still, I have never made a profit on this.

I knew all four of these points over the summer, but I was waiting to see how the launch of CRASH LAND ON KURAI would do. Thankfully it did well enough. But the sales never outpaced my ad spend, and I didn’t make a profit on the book like I thought I would.

So, I decided to call in the big guns

Three weeks ago, I got on the phone with a real professional in this business, someone who knows what he’s talking about. He had gone over my ad spend, looked at all my books, and helped me make plans to soldier into the future. Then he asked, “Let’s go back and look at a month when you did really well. Tell me the last time you made over $1000 to $2000 in a month and we’ll go over the numbers on how you can do that again.”

Uhhhh. *crickets* I had to break it to him that I’ve never made $1000 a month. Some years I don’t make $1000 in one year, not even gross. He was speechless. According to him, I have great covers and I’m a fabulous writer, I should be making a few grand a month.

That was news to me.

And that’s when it hit me. I defy all conventional wisdom in this industry. I can do everything right and still get it all wrong. I told him, “People tell me my books don’t sell because they’re about Japan.” And he told me, no. That can’t be it. So…?

Now what?

Now, it’s time to make solid plans

Most people would just give up at this point. I know I’ve thought about it several times. But like I said above, I love writing and I love my worlds and publishing my books for my limited audience. It’s time to be realistic about my plans for Year Five.

Last year, I said I would write what I wanted, when I wanted, and I’m going to continue that.

From now on, until things change, you can count on three books a calendar year from me: one mystery and two sci-fi.

So far this calendar year of 2017, I’ve published one mystery and one sci-fi. I have another sci-fi coming up that I’m excited about it! And you can also expect the next Daydreamer Detective book in January 2018 (it’s up for pre-order, in case you missed it.)

I also want to go back to writing more on the blog and being here more often. I love this place and I still have readers here. I want to provide content for you!

That’s it. I may write more, and it’s doubtful I will write less. This is a good pace for me. I don’t participate in anthologies or multi-author box sets because most are not a good fit for me and the organizers are not interested in my work. I occasionally write short stories, so maybe you’ll see some from me, but no guarantees.

What else will I be doing with my time?

Let me be clear that if I were killing it at this author thing, I’d be doing it 11 hours a day forever and ever. I’m a workaholic. I love being busy. I know authors who do work those kinds of authors. They’re successful and they work so hard, but they love it because they’re selling books. So, while I will be writing in my worlds and publishing a few books for you every year, I will also be trying some new things for me and going back to old loves.

I miss knitting. I put it on the back burner for a long time so I could concentrate on writing. It’s time to bring it back. It’s fun. It’s for me. And there’s so much out there for me to try.

I’d also like to learn a new hobby, but I’m not sure what that will be yet. I’m not especially crafty, so I thought maybe I’d learn something like a card game. My parents would be so happy if I learned Bridge. Lol. And now that my kids took pottery at the local museum, I’ve also been thinking about trying my hand at it.

This might also be the time for me to get back to my Japanese language skills. We shall see. I’m sure I’ll have plenty to talk about here on the blog!

There’s so much more ahead!

Even though I’m scaling back for publishing, I have a million stories in my head just waiting to hit the page! I can’t wait to write them all. I’m also looking forward to trying out new hobbies and other creative pursuits that will keep my writing brain happy.

I’m excited for Year Five! BRING IT ON!!

Happy 4th Anniversary In Publishing! was originally published on S. J. Pajonas

#anniversary #inspiration #life #self-publishing #writing

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cryptokingrobiul · 7 years ago

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Top 20 Broker

New Post has been published on http://www.top20broker.com/news/labour-market-monetary-policy/

The Labour Market and Monetary Policy

It is a great pleasure to be able to support the Anika Foundation by speaking today. I was delighted when Adrian asked me to continue the RBA’s support of the Foundation. In the early 1990s, when I first returned from studying overseas, Adrian had just taken up the position of Head of Economic Research at the RBA and he was a great mentor to me. More importantly, the Anika Foundation is undertaking really important work in helping improve the mental health of our children.

Thank you all for coming out today to support this work. I would particularly like to thank the National Australia Bank for its support as the new sponsor of this lunch.

Over the past few months I have participated in a lot of international meetings: the IMF, the G20, the BIS, the Financial Stability Board and meetings of Asian central bank governors. Two points, in particular, have struck me.

The first is that conditions in the global economy have improved. The pessimism of earlier years has given way to cautious optimism. Forecasts of future growth are being revised up, not down. So the discussions are quite different from those that were taking place a year ago.

The second point is the commonality of the questions being asked about labour markets. Employment growth has generally surprised on the upside and, in a number of countries, the unemployment rate is at, or below, the rate conventionally associated with full employment. Yet at the same time, growth in wages remains subdued, even in countries with low unemployment rates. So a common question being asked is: why are the stronger labour markets not generating more upward pressure on wages? A related question is what does this mean for the outlook for inflation and monetary policy?

In today’s remarks, I would like to talk about these labour market issues in an Australian context. My remarks will be in three parts. I will first talk about trends in employment in Australia. I will then discuss recent wage outcomes. And finally, the implications for monetary policy.

Trends in Employment

On a number of measures the Australian labour market has performed well over recent times. Over the past decade and a half, the unemployment rate has moved up and down within a narrow range of around 2 percentage points and its average level has been considerably below that in the previous 30 years (Graph 1). Most other countries have seen considerably larger swings in their unemployment rates over recent times. The relative stability in Australia’s unemployment rate is despite us experiencing the biggest terms of trade and mining investment booms in a century. It is a considerable achievement and a testament to the flexibility of the Australian economy.

Graph 1

If we look at just the past few months, there has been a welcome pick-up in employment growth right across the country, after a period of softness. The forward-looking indicators suggest that employment growth will continue. Job ads, job vacancies and hiring intentions have all lifted. Businesses are also reporting better conditions than they have for some years. This is good news, particularly given that the unemployment rate is still around ½ a percentage point above estimates of full employment in Australia.[1]

Notwithstanding these outcomes, there are other labour market developments that are causing concern in the community. There is a degree of underemployment, wage growth is slow and job security is an issue for more people. The nature of work is also changing, in both the way we work and the industries in which we work.

Over the medium term, two trends in particular stand out. The first is the growth of part-time employment. And the second is the growth of employment in the services sector.

The number of Australians working part time has grown rapidly (Graph 2). Since the 1960s, the share of part-time workers has increased threefold to nearly one-third of total employment, with the pace of this shift picking up over recent years. Since 2013, growth in part-time employment has averaged 3 per cent per year, while growth in full-time employment has averaged less than 1 per cent.

Graph 2

This shift in working patterns reflects both supply and demand factors.

On the supply side, many people want to work part time. Indeed, in many workplaces, employees have long been asking for greater flexibility, including the ability to work fewer hours. Part-time work leaves time for other activities, including education, caring for others and leisure.

Some insight into why people work part time can be gained from the HILDA Survey, which asks people for the main reason that they work part time (Graph 3). The most common response is that they are studying. Other frequent responses are that they are caring for children or that they simply prefer part-time work. For many people, part-time work is what they want. The fact that we have been able to accommodate this desire is a positive feature of our labour market.

Graph 3

There are demand factors at work as well. Many businesses benefit from having employees who work part time. But there is an element to the demand side that is not so positive. Some people are working part-time because they can’t find a full-time job and others are working part-time because of job requirements. While most part-time workers are not seeking full-time employment, around one-quarter want to work more hours than they currently do. On average, they are looking to work an additional 14 hours per week, although many are not taking active steps to secure those additional hours.

So many people want to work part time, but some of these would like more hours than they currently have. This represents an additional source of unused capacity in our labour market that is not reflected in the unemployment rate. Given this, as part-time employment has grown, the RBA has paid additional attention to alternative measures of labour market slack. One measure that has conceptual appeal is an hours-based underutilisation rate, which measures the additional hours sought by workers (including those currently unemployed) relative to the total number of hours that workers would like to work. This measure shows the same general pattern as the unemployment rate, although the gap has tended to widen gradually over time (Graph 4).[2]

Graph 4

Now turning to the second longer-term trend shift we have seen in our labour market – the shift to employment in the services sector (Graph 5).

Graph 5

Today, almost 80 per cent of Australians work in service industries, broadly defined. By way of contrast, in the 1950s only around 50 per cent of employed Australians worked in the services sector. In the past, it was common to have a full-time job producing goods. In our more modern economy, this is no longer the case.

In an effort to better understand the growth in services-sector employment, one of the exercises that we have done at the RBA is to classify around 300 individual service-sector occupations into jobs that pay hourly wages that are below average, around average and above average.[3] We have then tracked employment growth for each of these three groups since 2000 (Graph 6).

Graph 6

The picture is pretty clear. The growth in service-sector employment has been strongest in those occupations with above-average rates of pay. Since 2000, over a million new higher-paying jobs have been created in the services sector. Some of the occupations where there have been large gains in employment are: medical professionals, IT managers, project administrators and sales managers. There has also been strong employment growth in occupations with lower rates of pay.

We have also conducted the same analysis for the business services and household services sectors separately (Graph 7). The growth of higher-paying jobs has been much more pronounced in business services, than it has been in household services. For the household services sector, the growth has been strongest in jobs with below-average wages. Some of the occupations where there has been a big increase in employment here include: baristas and waiters, childcare workers and aged-care workers. So it’s a mixed picture.

Graph 7

I am often asked where future jobs growth will come from. The short answer is that it will come mainly from where it has come from in the recent past – from the myriad of occupations in the services sector. Some of these jobs will attract relatively low rates of pay, but, if our experience is a useful guide, more of these jobs will be higher-paying high-skill jobs.

With most of us working in the services sector, it’s in our national interest to lift productivity growth in these industries and to develop more higher-paid high-skill jobs. Technology is important here but so too is investment in human capital. It seems probable that the next wave of growth in Australia will be driven by us building on our expertise in services. This requires investment, including in human capital.

Growth in Wages

I would now like to turn to another element of the labour market story – the slow growth in wages.

Over the past year, the Wage Price Index has increased by 1.9 per cent. This is the slowest rate of increase since this series commenced in 1997. The same picture is evident in the broader measure of average hourly earnings from the national accounts. To help see the longer-term trends, Graph 8 shows average annual growth in hourly earnings over a rolling four-year period. The most recent observation is the lowest for many decades. From the mid 1990s until a few years ago, Australians got used to average hourly earnings increasing by around 4 per cent a year. Over recent years, growth has been a bit less than half of this.

Graph 8

These lower wage increases have persisted for some time now. One consequence of this is that there has been a decline in expectations of future income growth. This decline is seen as more than just temporary. It is one of the factors that has been weighing on consumption growth over recent times. As households have revised down their expectations of future income growth, they have adjusted their spending too. A downward revision to expectations of income growth also means debt obligations stay higher for longer than was originally expected.

Why is this happening, both here and elsewhere in the world?

There is no single answer.

Part of the story in Australia is that our labour market has some spare capacity and we are unwinding some of the effects on wages of the mining investment boom. But this isn’t the whole story, and neither spare capacity nor a mining boom explain low wages growth in some other advanced economies.

Another part of the story, particularly overseas, is slower productivity growth. In the United States, for example, low growth in wages is being matched with low productivity growth. In Australia, productivity growth has also slowed somewhat. Here, however, the slowing in earnings growth has been more pronounced than that in productivity. The result has been a decline in labour’s share of national income.

None of these reasons alone appears sufficient to explain the weakness in wage growth. This suggests that there is something else going on, and that it has a global dimension.

Many workers in advanced economies feel like they face more competition. A basic principle of economics is that when you face more competition, you are less inclined to put your price, or as a worker, your wage, up.

This perception of greater competition is coming from two sources. The first is globalisation. One of the positives of globalisation is that it increases the size of market that a firm can tap. At the same time, though, globalisation increases the number of competitors that can tap your market; it increases competition. The second source is changes in technology. In some industries, advances in technology have led workers to worry about the competition from robots. At the same time, advances in technology have made more areas of the economy subject to international competition; there are fewer truly non-traded industries any more.

Perhaps as a consequence of this extra competition – or perhaps as a consequence of other forces within our societies – many workers in advanced economies feel that the world is less secure – less secure economically and less secure politically. This means that security is valued more highly. With a greater premium on security, it’s plausible that workers are less inclined to take a risk by seeking larger wage increases.

One related aspect of the current labour market is a decline in job mobility. Data published by the ABS suggest that the share of employed people changing employers is around the lowest in recent decades (Graph 9). It is likely that in an environment of less job security, fewer people are inclined to switch employers. There is also a demand-side effect, with fewer firms attempting to attract workers from other firms. This is consistent with subdued wage growth.

Graph 9

When I spoke about this set of issues in a recent panel at the Crawford School at ANU, I made the point that some pick-up in aggregate wage growth over time would be a welcome development. Some commentators saw this as the Reserve Bank Governor making a rather unusual call to arms: a call for workers to demand larger wage increases from their employers. My intention was less dramatic.

It was simply to make the point that a gradual pick-up in aggregate wages growth would be a positive development. The best outcome for both workers and firms is for any pick-up to be underpinned by a lift in productivity growth and more high-skill jobs. But even the current rate of productivity growth could sustain some increase in wages growth over time. Indeed, some pick-up is incorporated into the Bank’s forecasts for the economy. A gradual lift in wage growth is a central element in our forecast for inflation to return to around the mid-point of the medium-term target range.

Policy Implications

I would now like to turn to some of the implications for monetary policy, both globally and in Australia.

The persistent slow growth in wages is creating a challenge for central banks. It is contributing to an extended period of inflation below target. In years gone by, the more standard challenge was to keep wage growth in check, so as to stop upward pressure on inflation, which could lead to restrictive monetary policy. No advanced economy faces this challenge at present.

It is possible that things could change in the not too distant future, particularly in those countries at, or near, full employment. It may be that the lags are just a bit longer than usual. If so, we could hit a point at which workers, having had only modest pay increases for a run of years, decide that it is time for a catch-up. If such a tipping point were reached, inflation pressures could emerge quite quickly. In this scenario we could see a period of turbulence in financial markets, given that markets are pricing in little risk of future inflation.

This scenario can’t be completely discounted. It would seem, though, to have a fairly low probability in Australia, especially in light of the continuing spare capacity in our labour market. The more likely case here is that wage growth picks up gradually as the demand for labour strengthens.

Globally, an alternative scenario is that the period of slow wage growth turns out to be much more persistent, partly for the reasons that I discussed earlier. In this scenario, wages growth eventually picks up, but it takes quite a while longer. If so, inflation stays low for longer, although there are other factors that could push inflation higher.

This scenario is one in which the Phillips Curve is flatter than it once was. It is one in which inflation is harder to generate. We can’t yet tell though whether the Phillips Curve in Australia has become flatter, given that we have experienced relatively little variation in the unemployment rate over recent times.

The combination of a flatter Phillips Curve and inflation below target raises a challenge for central banks: how hard to press to get inflation up? For a central bank with a single objective of inflation, the answer is relatively straightforward. Inflation is too low, so you do what you can to get inflation up. If inflation doesn’t increase, you need more monetary stimulus.

This approach does carry risks, though. A flatter Phillips Curve means that the monetary stimulus has relatively little effect on inflation, at least for a while. At the same time, however, the monetary stimulus is likely to push asset prices higher and encourage more borrowing. Faced with low inflation, low unemployment and low interest rates, investors are likely to find it attractive to borrow money to buy assets. This poses a medium-term risk to financial stability.

Australia’s monetary policy framework is better placed to deal with this world than some others. We have a flexible medium-term inflation target that allows financial stability considerations to be taken into account in the setting of monetary policy.

Over recent times you would have noticed that we have been paying close attention to the risks in household balance sheets. Household debt is high and rising faster than the unusually slow growth in incomes.

These developments have had a bearing on the setting of monetary policy. We have not sought to stimulate a rapid lift in inflation. The fact that the labour market has been generating sufficient jobs to keep the unemployment rate broadly steady has allowed us to be patient. Our judgement has been that seeking a more rapid pick-up in inflation through yet further monetary stimulus was likely to add to the medium-term risks. Our central scenario remains for underlying inflation to pick up gradually as the economy strengthens.

Elsewhere in the world, some central banks are now starting to increase interest rates and others are considering when to withdraw some of the monetary stimulus that has been put in place. This has no automatic implications for monetary policy in Australia. These central banks lowered their interest rates to zero and also expanded their balance sheets greatly. We did not go down this route. Just as we did not move in lockstep with other central banks when the monetary stimulus was being delivered, we don’t need to move in lockstep as some of this stimulus is removed.

Our decisions will continue to be made within the framework of our medium-term inflation target. We are intent on delivering Australians an average rate of inflation over time of between 2 and 3 per cent. We are seeking to do this in a way that supports sustainable growth in the economy and that best serves the public interest. To do this we need to understand developments in Australia’s labour market and to take account of our decisions on balance sheets in the economy.

Thank you for listening. I look forward to your questions.

source-rba

#labour market #Monetary policy #rba

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caredogstips · 7 years ago

Text

Ben Carson: could he be the answer to Republicans’ youth problem?

The retired neurosurgeons stimulating life history and non-politician status are key glean for millennials, facilitating see him Facebooks most followed candidate

The younger generation is tired of the typical politician, suggests 17 -year-old Megan Cox, explaining why she came to see Ben Carson with her mom, aunt and cousin in Spartanburg, South Carolina.

We interpret the stereotypical politician as more of exactly a figurehead, kind of bogus and so the fact that he is not a busines politician is a reaping point.

Like many who have come to see Carson speak at Wofford College, she says she was aware of, and motivated by, the mentality surgeons life story long before he embarked ranging for president. So far the seeming divergences in that story havent dissuaded them.

Millennials approximately defined as being born between the early 1980 s and early 2000 s make up its significant voting bloc. Its reckoned they will constitute a third of the vote in the 2016 election. Its the working group Republican ought to have struggling to allure. In 2012, 67% of 18- to 29 -year-olds voted for Barack Obama, compared with simply 30% for Mitt Romney.

Carson has so far proved to be something of a hit with this group, however. In May he topped a poll of those aged 18 -2 9, to be organized by Harvard Universitys Institute of Politics, as the most wonderful GOP candidate. In a September survey by Chegg, Carson was preceding his Republican competitives among college students.

Seeing Carson speak in person, at Woffords Benjamin Johnson arena in Spartanburg, it is not immediately obvious why he has such petition. Observers of the Republican dialogues will be accustomed to his toned-down accomplishments eyes half shut, spokesperson soft, pate bent but on theatre, talking to a gang of about 1,000 beings, he seems even lower-energy.

Ive been spending a lot of era boning up on material, Carson tells the audience, having only returned from a trip to Jordan. Carson toured refugee camps and met aid workers on site visits, in an attempt to bolster his foreign policy credentials.

Hes organized a move demonstrate for the students.

Syria, reads a entitle at the top of the first slither. There is a map of Syria and the countries encircling it. Syria is in red.

Population: 17 m, suggests a missile point.

There are pictures of Carson meeting dislodged Syrians. There is more room in the refugee camps, he responds. The US neednt accept anyone just yet.

Carson segues into something more like a stump communication, speeding slowly across the stage. He talks of the need to return to Judeo-Christian values. He talks about beings expecting him why he would enter politics after such a wonderful busines in medication. He utilises two handwriting gestures: embraced together, as if in devotion, and harboured apart, palms facing one another, like a serviceman describing the dimensions of the a fish he formerly caught.

More Facebook partisans than Bernie Sanders

A 2 December Quinnipiac ballot showed that Carson has fallen behind Trump, the two having been neck-and-neck since early November, and is tied with Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz for second place. Before he travelled to the Middle East he compared Syrian refugees to rabid hounds, which may not have helped.

But there are other indications of his notoriety. Carson has 4. 9 million adherents on Facebook. Thats more than Hillary Clinton and Trump. It is even more than Bernie Sanders, supposedly the millennial sweetheart.

Wofford hosted a GOP presidential conversation in 2011, and hosts the Hipp lecture series established by a former chairman of the South Carolina Republican party on national insurance. This is not a liberal campus, but still caters an interesting barometer of boy supporting. Talking to students it becomes clear that a big part of Carsons success is his life story. It was particularly helpful that many of them have contemplated this life story in school.

When I took anatomy last year we watched the Gifted Hands movie, does Cox.

I had no clue that he was interested in politics at all but the facts of the case that his life story, becoming a surgeon, and that he did inadequately in grade school and defeat that and went to Yale overcoming that is very important to me because it shows you a hard worker and he wasnt simply sided everything on a silver platter.

Isaiah Addison, a 21 -year-old Wofford student who is originally from Killeen, Texas, has an virtually identical fib.

Before he even was guiding Id looked at him as a role model, Addison says.

Hes actually one of the reasons why Im a neuroscience major right now here at Wofford. When I was in high school I actually watched the movie Gifted Hands and it genuinely transformed me on to wanting to know more about how the brain works.

Abbey Bedenbaugh is the chief representative for Ben Carsons campaign at Wofford. She didnt examine the movie Gifted Hands which stars Cuba Gooding Jr as Carson, and has a 7.8 -star rating on IMDB but read the book on which it was based.

Thats when I started to follow him and his employment, Bedenbaugh says.

His story, how he grew up. What he did to overcome obstacles in his childhood. How he merely continued to pursue what he adored no matter what obstacles he faced.

Bedenbaugh is 18 years old and is studying chemistry. She has only been campaigning for Carson for two weeks but has ever been signing up abundance of students. Like Cox, Addison, and many others, the tale of Carsons success is a big draw.

His popularity with boys is not lost on Carsons campaign. They have set up a Students for Carson program and are present on 3,900 college campuses.

As for reaching out to this demographic, our campaign believes it is incredibly important, enunciates Ying Ma, Carsons deputy communications director.

They aim to increase the number of sections to captivate more young people and get them campaigning on Carsons behalf.

As for his appeal: They visualize an authentic, accomplished individual who is willing to speak the truth and offering real solutions, Ma says.

Unconditional support

But Carsons back story the wayward boy who may or may not “ve been trying to” jabbed a sidekick before noting God and becoming a world-renowned intelligence surgeon has already become something of a millstone over the past weeks. Correspondents have been unable to find anyone to corroborate Carsons account of has become a teenage tearaway.

No one who knew a youthful Carson seems to remember him as a brutal child, let alone one who would attempt to attack his own mother with a hammer or stab a sidekick. Similarly, Carsons claims that he was offered a award to West Point armed establishment, and that he was deemed the most honest student in his class at Yale, have proved to be inaccurate.

You might expect that this would alienate those who were attracted by Carsons story and franknes. But the people I speak to seem prepared to give him a pass.

It does “i m feeling” heartbreaking but every person is a human, everyone moves missteps, Bedenbaugh tells. Not everyone is perfect all the time. Even Ben Carson.

In the Benjamin Johnson arena, Carson moves on to a question-and-answer discussion. His foreign policy boning up is evident, although he seems a bit over-eager to indicate it. At periods he sounds like a student hoping for additional points.

Asked about King Abdullah of Jordan, Carson describes him as a very honorable humanity. He pauses for a second before adding: he was a fighter captain. He talks about Russia and mentions the Baltic basin. And Im not talking about the Balkans, he illuminates, for no self-evident conclude other than to emphasize that he knows the difference between the two.

The event is brought to a shut. The predominantly young gathering have enjoyed the evening. Carson gets a standing ovation. Students snap photos as he ripples from the stage. “Theres” voluntaries outside, waiting to sign up new boosters. Evaluating by the response, they will probably do quite well.

The Carson campaign will be pleased. But as people begin to file out, there is a reminder that the electorate is also possible fickle.

At the extremely top of one of the realm sitting banks groupings of students are locked in exchange. I climb up and ask them why they substantiate Ben Carson.

Oh we dont, one says. We get extra ascribes for coming.