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From Foam to Block: Exploring the Different Types of Bow Targets Available
Foam targets are popular among archers due to their affordability and ease of use. Bow target blocks are typically made from compressed foam layers or blocks. The foam composition allows arrows to penetrate the target without damaging it significantly. Foam targets come in different shapes and sizes, including traditional round targets and 3D animal-shaped targets. They are lightweight and portable, making them suitable for outdoor shooting and field archery. However, foam targets can wear out relatively quickly, especially with extensive use, and may require occasional replacement or repair.
Block targets, also known as layered foam or compressed foam targets, are constructed from multiple compressed foam layers. The layers are bonded together to form a solid block. The advantage of block targets is that they offer excellent stopping power, even for high-speed compound bows. They are designed to withstand continuous use and are known for their longevity. Block targets provide easy arrow removal, and the layered construction allows for multiple shooting surfaces, increasing the overall lifespan of the target. However, they can be bulkier and heavier than other types of targets, making them less portable.
How do you make a bow target?
Determine the size and shape of your Bow targets. You can choose a round shape or any other desired shape based on your preferences and shooting practice goals. The common dimensions for a round target range from 36 to 48 inches (91 to 122 cm) in diameter.
Measure and mark the dimensions on the foam sheets or blocks. If using multiple foam sheets or blocks, ensure they are cut to the same size.
Use a utility knife or foam cutting tool to carefully cut the foam according to your marked dimensions.
If desired, prepare a sturdy backing material, such as plywood, to provide additional support for the foam target. Cut the plywood to the same size as the foam target.
Apply carpenter's glue or adhesive to one side of the foam sheets or blocks. Press the layers together firmly, ensuring they are aligned properly. If using a backing material, place the glued foam onto the plywood or backing material and press it down to adhere.
Allow the adhesive to dry completely as per the manufacturer's instructions. This step is crucial for ensuring a strong bond between the foam layers and the backing material.
Optional: To enhance the durability of the target, you can wrap the edges of the foam with duct tape or strong adhesive tape. This helps protect the foam from wear and tear and reinforces the edges.
Your homemade bow target is now ready to use. Set it up in a safe and suitable location for shooting practice. Ensure there is sufficient space behind the target to catch arrows safely.
What are block targets made of?
Block targets are typically made of compressed foam or layered foam. The foam used in block targets is a specially formulated material designed to have high density and durability. It is often composed of polyurethane foam or a similar synthetic foam material. The manufacturing process involves compressing multiple layers of foam together to form a solid block. The layers are bonded to create a cohesive and sturdy target surface. The foam layers are carefully selected to provide optimal arrow-stopping power while allowing for easy arrow removal. The specific composition and construction of block targets may vary among different manufacturers and models. However, the overall aim is to create a target that can withstand repeated arrow impacts without significant damage and maintain its stopping power over an extended period of use.
Types of bow targets available
There are several types of bowtargets available for archery practice. Here are some common types:
Foam Targets: Foam targets are made of compressed foam layers or blocks. They allow arrows to penetrate without causing significant damage and are available in various shapes and sizes. Foam targets are lightweight and portable, making them suitable for outdoor shooting and field archery.
Bag Targets: Bag targets are constructed with durable fabric materials and filled with synthetic fibers or shredded fabric scraps. They offer easy arrow removal and durability, making them suitable for both field and target archery. Bag targets often feature multiple aiming points for enhanced practice sessions.
Block Targets: Block targets, also known as layered foam or compressed foam targets, consist of multiple compressed foam layers bonded together. They provide excellent stopping power, even for high-speed compound bows. Block targets are known for their longevity and can withstand continuous use.
3D Targets: 3D targets mimic real-life animals and are primarily used for hunting practice. They are often made of foam or other durable materials. 3D bow targets provide a realistic shooting experience, allowing archers to aim for specific areas on the target, such as vitals. They come in various animal shapes and sizes and are popular among bowhunters.
Straw Targets: Straw targets, also called bales, are constructed by tightly compacting straw into a solid mass. They have been used in archery for centuries and are commonly used in traditional and field archery. Straw targets offer good stopping power and are relatively inexpensive.
Paper Targets: Paper targets are printed sheets with various designs, including bullseye patterns, animal shapes, or scoring rings. They are commonly used for indoor and outdoor target archery practice. Paper targets are lightweight, inexpensive, and easily replaceable.
Reinforced Targets: Reinforced targets are made of a combination of materials to enhance durability and arrow-stopping power. They often feature multiple layers of foam, fabric, or other high-density materials, providing excellent resistance to arrow penetration.
What kind of foam is used in bow targets?
The foam used in bow targets is typically a type of closed-cell foam called ethylene-vinyl acetate (EVA) foam. EVA foam is a popular choice due to its desirable properties for archery targets. It is known for its durability, density, and ability to absorb and stop arrows effectively. EVA foam is also resistant to water, UV radiation, and general wear and tear, making it suitable for both indoor and outdoor use. EVA foam targets often consist of multiple layers or blocks of compressed foam. These layers are bonded together to form a solid and sturdy target surface. The specific composition and density of the foam may vary among different manufacturers and target models to achieve optimal stopping power and arrow penetration resistance. Overall, EVA foam has become a preferred material for bow targets due to its ability to withstand repeated arrow impacts while maintaining its structural integrity.
Unveiling the Versatility of Bow Targets, from Foam to Block
In the world of archery, having the right target is crucial for effective practice sessions. From foam to block targets, there is a wide range of options available to cater to different archery needs. Foam targets provide affordability and ease of use, while bag targets offer durability and easy arrow removal. Block targets excel in stopping power and longevity, while straw targets bring a traditional touch. 3D targets provide a realistic hunting experience. By considering factors such as shooting style, practice goals, and portability requirements, archers can choose the target that suits them best. Whether it's honing skills or preparing for a hunt, the diverse world of bow targets offers something for everyone. So grab your bow, take aim, and hit the mark with confidence.
For more information, contact us at:
Call: 860-742-0227
Email: [email protected]
Website: www.sadlakproducts.com
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OnCore Leads Sets New Industry Standard with Exceptional Personal Injury Leads Generation
[Folsom, CA] – OnCore Leads, a trailblazing force in the lead generation industry, is proud to announce its remarkable success in generating outstanding personal injury leads. The company's innovative approach and commitment to quality have set a new standard, establishing OnCore Leads as a go-to resource for legal professionals seeking high-value leads.
Personal injury law firms face numerous challenges in acquiring qualified leads to expand their client base. Recognizing this need, OnCore Leads has strategically developed and implemented cutting-edge methodologies to ensure the delivery of top-tier personal injury leads to its clients.
What sets OnCore Leads apart is its relentless focus on quality assurance. Through a combination of advanced technology and a team of highly skilled professionals, the company employs rigorous screening processes to filter out irrelevant and low-quality leads. This commitment to precision ensures that every lead provided is not only relevant but also represents a genuine opportunity for legal professionals to connect with individuals seeking assistance with their personal injury cases.
"At OnCore Leads, we understand the critical role that high-quality leads play in the success of personal injury law firms. Our team is dedicated to going above and beyond industry standards to deliver leads that are not only accurate but also timely," said Carolyn Oliveira, CEO at OnCore Leads.
One of the key factors contributing to OnCore Leads' success is its use of advanced data analytics and artificial intelligence. The company leverages these technologies to identify patterns, behaviors, and trends, allowing for a targeted and efficient approach to lead generation. This data-driven strategy ensures that personal injury leads provided by OnCore Leads align closely with the specific criteria and preferences of its clients.
Clients working with OnCore Leads have reported a significant increase in their conversion rates, emphasizing the effectiveness of the company's lead generation solutions. This success has positioned OnCore Leads as a trusted partner for law firms looking to streamline their client acquisition process and focus on what they do best – delivering exceptional legal services.
As the demand for high-quality personal injury leads continues to rise, OnCore Leads remains at the forefront, dedicated to innovation, excellence, and client success. Legal professionals seeking a reliable and results-driven partner in lead generation need look no further than OnCore Leads.
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Check out this listing I just added to my Poshmark closet: SPANX ONCORE SHAPER.
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Oncore Leads Brings A Complete Range Of Lead Generation Services For Businesses In Various Domains
USA (September 03, 2021) - When individuals run into tax trouble with the IRS or state regulatory bodies, they are most likely not prepared to deal with the problem. They require assistance from a tax settlement specialist who knows to get the best outcome. Without professional guidance, tax defaulters cannot get out of their problems.
However, tax professionals cannot always reach out to these people. Tax issues can hit anyone, from an individual to large businesses. As a result, it is quite a difficult market to target potential clients. Traditional marketing efforts require an extensive network of references, and it's pretty expensive to reach potential clients.
Tax lead generation agencies can help find prospects with the proven need of services. Tax Debt Leads generation agencies to do a lot more than just selling high-quality leads. They provide complete assistance to tax professionals and help them succeed and achieve better results from the leads. Lead generation agencies guarantee that the salesperson can contact every lead, asking them the right questions and delivering the correct information. Professional Tax Debt Leads generation agencies are vendors for leads and serve as strategic partners with tax professionals.
About
Oncore Leads is one of the most well-known lead generation companies that work intimately with clients across various industries. They provide high-quality leads to every client. They have a proven portfolio of the quality of their work that helps businesses generate more revenue. Visitors on their website can access tax debt leads by submitting an online form. The company representatives reach out to the client and provide them with a free consultation.
For more information, visit https://oncoreleads.com/tax-debt-leads/
Media Contact
OnCore Leads Phone: 855-662-6735 Email: [email protected]
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Excerpt from this EcoWatch story:
Today is Arbor Day. That means in just three years, America's oldest environmental celebration will turn 150, and the Arbor Day Foundation is already planning a redwood-sized birthday present. The foundation, the largest non-profit dedicated to planting trees, has announced a new goal: planting 100 million trees by 2022.
"It can be easy to take trees for granted, but they are absolutely critical to maintaining balance on our planet—supporting clean air and water, healthy food and a livable climate," Arbor Day Foundation President Dan Lambe said in a press release. "With an estimated 18 million acres of forests lost globally each year, that balance is being shaken."
The new Time for Trees initiative, officially launched March 20, is the foundation's largest tree-planting undertaking yet.
The website outlined some of what the 100 million new trees will do:
Absorb 8 million tons of carbon, the equivalent of taking 6.2 million cars off the road for a year.
Filter 15,850 tons of particulate matter from the air.
Filter and catch 7.1 billion cubic meters of water, enough to fill a water bottle for each person on earth every day for five years.
Remove 578,000 tons of chemicals from the air.
The foundation hopes to plant trees in a variety of ecosystems, from tropical rainforests to towns and cities that have lost trees to extreme weather, diseases and development. It will work with corporate, community and individual partners, and hopes to get five million more tree planters involved. Its efforts will be funded and promoted by an Evergreen Alliance whose members include Bank of America, Bass Pro Shops & Cabela's, Brambles | CHEP, Church & Dwight, Exelon, FedEx, The Hershey Company, International Paper, Marriott International, Mary Kay, Oncor, PwC, Target, TD Bank, UPS, Verizon and Wyndham Destinations.
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Greatest B Com Business Analytics Faculty In Hyderabad
Business analytics uses a statistical strategy to investigate structured knowledge. This PG program from the University of Texas at Austin presents you online lessons with personalized on-line mentorship classes. Successful completion of the project will earn you a post-graduate certification in Data Science and Business Analytics. In Hyderabad, IMS Proschool provides Business Analytics Course certified by NSE Academy at Lakdikapul, Hyderabad. IMS Proschool is the leading classroom supplier of Analytics Education in India and has been constantly ranked among the many Top 5 Analytics Institutes in India by Analytics India Magazine within the year 2016, 17, 18 and 19. In India, the most recent technological domains of information science and Business Analytics are noticed to achieve large traction very quickly. At a primary degree, these web sites are being driven by lots and far of data which is fetched utilizing APIs and RSS Feeds. If you have ever used these web sites, you'd know the convenience of comparing the price of a product from multiple distributors in one place. PriceRunner, Junglee, DealTime are some examples of price comparability web sites. It is a hierarchical construction where inside nodes indicate the dataset features, branches represent the decision guidelines, and each leaf node signifies the end result. Schema design Schema design is a schema diagram that specifies the name of record type, information sort, and different constraints like primary key, overseas key, etc. Here, we'll cowl everything you have to know about SQL programming, such as DBMS, Normalization, Joins, and so forth. Capital Structure Capital Structure in business finance is a method the place an organisation funds its belongings and liabilities using the combination of debt and fairness. Fundamentals of Finance Business Finance is something where you increase and manage funds by business organisations. You will undergo the basics of business finance in this module. Self-Paced Training – Provides a complete set of movies, know-how may be discovered at one’s own pace, lifetime entry additionally contains the latest model of enterprise analytics with R. IMS was based in the yr 1977 and has been targeted on constructing student’s careers. They are making efforts towards finding out the longer term prospects of the professional opportunities. IMS is providing skill-based applications like Finance, Analytics, Accounting, and Marketing. IMS Proschool is the extension of IMS with the same approach of creating individuals notice their potentialities. School facilitates placements via a college placement coordinator. Placement activity can be strengthened by the University's Placement Guidance and Advisory Bureau . You need to hire a cook at your home if a person needs to join as cook dinner at your personal home without having cooking experience, will you supply him/her a cook dinner job?? NO, you will by no means supply a cook job to an individual who doesn’t have cooking experience. Many prime MBA faculties together with IIMs provide Business Analytics as one of many main specializations within their 2 12 months full time MBA programmes. L.E.A.D. is a post-graduate certificate program delivered by TAPMI enterprise faculty in affiliation with Mu Sigma. Let us learn about each kind of institutes providing MBA in Business Analytics programme with the programme name, duration, charge.data science course in hyderabad with placements The programme is designed on a schedule that minimises the disruption of work and personal pursuits. The programme is a mixture of classroom and Technology aided studying platform. Participants will usually be on campus for a 5-day schedule of classroom studying each alternate month for 12 months, which might ideally be planned to include a weekend. Oncor's software program uses machine learning to make personalised suggestions for present cancer sufferers supported knowledge from previous ones.
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Why data scientists should know psychology as well
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wait it gets worse.
the “rolling outages” are not rolling or random. ERCOT is specifically targeting lower income neighborhoods. the Oncor outage map clearly shows areas like Highland Park haven’t been touched by blackouts.
MILLIONS of people in Texas (350k in Dallas alone) have had no power in 24 hours because officials refuse to invest in our infrastructure or reusable energy. Some of my friends haven’t had power in 12+ hours. They are implementing “rolling blackouts” to conserve energy without a schedule or notice. Originally the blackouts were for 15-40 minutes but most people lose power permanently. During the COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN HISTORY IN THE STATE. Windchills in DFW yesterday got down to -20, if you were outside for more then 30 minutes you would get frostbite and hypothermia. Fort Worth is under a boil water mandate because their water treatment plant lost power. (Boil water without electricity). Grocery stores can not open, my friends and family are starving and freezing. People have made the dangerous trek to check into hotels only for the hotels to lose power. We’re having another storm Wednesday that could extend this into next week. Please share, the nation should know how Texas leaders have failed their citizens. We should all be pissed. We can do better. Texas is not okay.
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3D Targets Archery | 3D Targets
Experience the thrill of realistic archery practice with 3D targets! Sharpen your aim and precision with cutting-edge 3D targets. Unleash your inner archer and conquer the target. Shop now for an unforgettable archery adventure. For more details visit our website.
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OnCore Leads Unveils Cutting-Edge Personal Injury Marketing Leads to Empower Law Firms
[Folsom, California] - OnCore Leads, a pioneering force in the lead generation industry, is thrilled to announce the launch of its latest service: Personal Injury Digital Marketing Leads. This innovative offering is designed to revolutionize the way law firms connect with potential clients, providing a targeted and efficient solution for legal professionals specializing in personal injury cases.
Personal injury law firms often face the challenge of reaching the right audience at the right time. OnCore Leads addresses this issue by delivering high-quality, exclusive leads directly to law firms, ensuring they have access to individuals actively seeking legal assistance for personal injury matters. By leveraging advanced marketing strategies and cutting-edge technology, OnCore Leads aims to empower law firms to expand their client base and enhance their practice.
Key features of OnCore Leads' Personal Injury Marketing Leads include:
Exclusive and Real-Time Leads: OnCore Leads provides law firms with exclusive access to leads generated in real-time. This ensures that legal professionals can connect with potential clients at the moment they are actively seeking legal representation, increasing the likelihood of conversion.
Targeted Marketing: The Personal Injury Marketing Leads are meticulously curated to match the specific criteria outlined by law firms. This targeted approach ensures that law firms receive leads relevant to their practice areas and geographic locations, optimizing their marketing efforts.
Comprehensive Data: OnCore Leads understands the importance of detailed and accurate information. Each lead comes with comprehensive data, including contact details and specific details related to the personal injury case, allowing law firms to make informed decisions when reaching out to potential clients.
Customizable Solutions: OnCore Leads recognizes that every law firm is unique. As such, the Personal Injury Marketing Leads service is customizable to meet the specific needs and preferences of each client. Whether a firm is looking to target a particular demographic or geographic area, OnCore Leads can tailor its services accordingly.
OnCore Leads' commitment to providing high-quality leads and innovative solutions underscores its position as a leader in the lead generation industry. With the launch of Personal Injury Marketing Leads, OnCore Leads continues to demonstrate its dedication to helping law firms thrive in an increasingly competitive legal landscape.
For more information about OnCore Leads and its Personal Injury Marketing Leads, please visit oncoreleads.com.
About OnCore Leads:
OnCore Leads is a leading provider of high-quality, exclusive leads for legal professionals. With a focus on innovation and client success, OnCore Leads delivers targeted leads to law firms across various practice areas, helping them connect with individuals in need of legal assistance.
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Energía Costa Azul LNG Receives US Non-FTA Approval For Liquefaction-Export Infrastructure Project In Mexico
This post was originally published on this site
SAN DIEGO, March 31, 2019 /PRNewswire/ — Sempra Energy (NYSE: SRE) today announced that its subsidiary Energía Costa Azul (ECA) LNG received two authorizations from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to export U.S. produced natural gas to Mexico and to re-export liquefied natural gas (LNG) to countries that do not have a free-trade agreement (non-FTA) with the U.S., from its Phase 1 and Phase 2 liquefaction-export facilities in development in Baja California, Mexico.
“The timing of these approvals is great news as we meet with customers and partners this week in Shanghai,” said Joseph A. Householder, president and chief operating officer for Sempra Energy. “ECA LNG’s location on the West Coast of North America is truly a differentiator and it has the potential to be a game changer. ECA LNG will source natural gas from some of the fastest-growing production regions in the U.S. and provide our customers with a competitive advantage in accessing world markets, especially Asia.”
“The authorizations are another step forward in the development of this project that could bring many benefits for Mexico, U.S. natural gas producers and our customers and partners in greater Asia,” said Carlos Ruiz Sacristán, chairman and CEO of Sempra North American Infrastructure. “We are pleased to continue to advance the development of ECA LNG, which can uniquely meet the energy needs of isolated markets in Mexico and customers in Asia.”
ECA LNG Phase 1 development opportunity is a single train LNG facility to be located adjacent to the existing LNG receipt terminal. It is expected to utilize current LNG storage tanks, marine berth and associated facilities. Phase 2 of the project will include the addition of two trains and one LNG storage tank. The DOE authorizations allow the export of 636 billion cubic feet (Bcf) a year of U.S. sourced LNG from these infrastructure projects. Phase 2 of the project will require additional DOE approval in order to export its full expected capacity.
The existing ECA receipt terminal was the first LNG receipt terminal constructed on North America’s West Coast. Located about 15 miles north of Ensenada, Baja California, it began commercial operations in 2008 and is capable of processing up to 1 Bcf of natural gas per day.
The DOE approval comes as the company prepares to discuss the U.S. LNG market this week at the 19th International Conference & Exhibition on LNG (LNG2019), in Shanghai. LNG2019 is the largest LNG event to ever be held in China – the world’s fastest-growing LNG market.
Last November, Sempra Energy announced that its subsidiaries IEnova and Sempra LNG had signed Heads of Agreements (HOAs) with affiliates of Total S.A., Mitsui & Co., Ltd. and Tokyo Gas Co., Ltd. for Phase 1 of the ECA LNG project, subject to reaching definitive agreements. TechnipFMC and Kiewit were selected as the engineering, procurement, construction and commissioning (EPC) contractors for the project, subject to reaching a definitive agreement on the EPC contract.
Development of the ECA LNG liquefaction project is contingent upon obtaining binding customer commitments, completing the required commercial agreements, securing all necessary permits, including additional export authorization from the Mexican and U.S. governments, obtaining financing, incentives and other factors, and reaching a final investment decision.
Sempra Energy’s mission is to be North America’s premier energy infrastructure company. With 2018 revenues of more than $11.6 billion, the San Diego-based company is the utility holding company with the largest U.S. customer base. The Sempra Energy companies’ more than 20,000 employees are focused on delivering energy with purpose to approximately 40 million consumers worldwide. Sempra Energy has been consistently recognized for its leadership in diversity and inclusion, social responsibility and investment value, and its a member of the Dow Jones Utility Index.
This press release contains statements that are not historical fact and constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements can be identified by words such as “believes,” “expects,” “anticipates,” “plans,” “estimates,” “projects,” “forecasts,” “contemplates,” “assumes,” “depends,” “should,” “could,” “would,” “will,” “confident,” “may,” “can,” “potential,” “possible,” “proposed,” “target,” “pursue,” “outlook,” “maintain,” or similar expressions or when we discuss our guidance, strategy, plans, goals, vision, opportunities, projections, initiatives, objectives or intentions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of performance. They involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions. Future results may differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements.
Factors, among others, that could cause our actual results and future actions to differ materially from those described in any forward-looking statements include risks and uncertainties relating to: actions and the timing of actions, including decisions, new regulations and issuances of authorizations by the U.S. Department of Energy, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration, states, cities and counties, and other regulatory and governmental bodies in the U.S. and other countries in which we operate; the success of business development efforts and construction projects, including risks in (i) obtaining or maintaining authorizations; (ii) completing construction projects on schedule and budget; (iii) obtaining the consent of partners; (iv) counterparties’ ability to fulfill contractual commitments; and (v) the ability to realize anticipated benefits from any of these efforts once completed; the availability of natural gas and liquefied natural gas, and natural gas pipeline and storage capacity; equipment failures; changes in energy markets; volatility in commodity prices; moves to reduce or eliminate reliance on natural gas; risks posed by actions of third parties who control the operations of our investments; weather conditions, natural disasters, accidents, equipment failures, explosions, terrorist attacks and other events that disrupt our operations, damage our facilities and systems, cause the release of harmful materials, and subject us to third-party liability for property damage or personal injuries, fines and penalties, some of which may not be covered by insurance (including costs in excess of applicable policy limits) or may be disputed by insurers; cybersecurity threats to storage and pipeline infrastructure, the information and systems used to operate our businesses; the impact of recent federal tax reform and our ability to mitigate adverse impacts; changes in foreign and domestic trade policies and laws, including border tariffs, revisions to or the replacement of international trade agreements, and changes that make our exports less competitive or otherwise restrict our ability to export; and other uncertainties, some of which may be difficult to predict and are beyond our control. These risks and uncertainties are further discussed in the reports that Sempra Energy has filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). These reports are available through the EDGAR system free-of-charge on the SEC’s website, www.sec.gov, and on the company’s website at www.sempra.com. Investors should not rely unduly on any forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements speak only as of the date hereof, and the company undertakes no obligation to update or revise these forecasts or projections or other forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
Sempra LNG and Port Arthur LNG, LLC are not the same as the California Utilities, San Diego Gas & Electric Company (SDG&E) or Southern California Gas Company (SoCalGas), or Oncor Electric Delivery Company LLC (Oncor) and are not regulated by the California Public Utilities Commission.
SOURCE Sempra Energy
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http://www.sempra.com
The post Energía Costa Azul LNG Receives US Non-FTA Approval For Liquefaction-Export Infrastructure Project In Mexico appeared first on The Chestnut Post.
from The Chestnut Post https://thechestnutpost.com/news/energia-costa-azul-lng-receives-us-non-fta-approval-for-liquefaction-export-infrastructure-project-in-mexico/
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Ten Clean Energy Stocks For 2019
Ten Clean Energy Stocks For 2019
by Tom Konrad Ph.D., CFA
Looking forward to 2019, I’m more optimistic than I have been since the start of 2016, in the wake of the popping of the YieldCo Bubble in late 2015.
The bear market that started in late 2018 seems like it’s far from over, but I expect in early 2019 will see it enter a less chaotic phase. After the wild declines and swings of late 2018, I expect investors will begin the new year with an eye to safety more than growth. This means that the clean energy income stocks which are my focus should outperform riskier growth stocks. The end of interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve should also help these stocks as fewer investors are drawn away by the increasing yields of bonds and other income instruments.
As I write on December 28th, my Ten Clean Energy Stocks for 2018 model portfolio looks like it will end the year with a small loss, but ahead of its benchmarks. You can see its returns through December 28th in the chart below, and stay tuned for a recap sometime in the next week.
Out with the old
With stock prices down and yields up, I plan to keep seven stocks from the 2018 list for 2019. The exceptions are (somewhat coincidentally), the two winners: InfraREIT (HIFR), Seaspan Worldwide (SSW), and Clearway Energy, Inc (NYSE: CWEN and CWEN/A). I’m dropping InfraREIT because the company is being bought out by Oncor in a transaction expected to close sometime in the second quarter. Seaspan is losing its slot for lack of greenery. I always considered the owner of relatively efficient container ships to be marginally green (due to the relative efficiency of its ships compared to those of its peers), and a recent purchase of an interest in liquefied natural gas transportation makes it no longer meet my standard for a green stock.
I’m dropping Clearway mostly based on relative valuation. The company is still attractive, but a little less so than some of the other Yieldcos which made this year’s list. Not only does Clearway have some fossil fuel assets, it also has a large number of power purchase agreements with PG&E (PCG). PG&E, in turn, has significant potential liability from the possible involvement of its equipment in starting some of California’s recent wildfires. Both California’s utility regulators and legislators are working to protect PG&E from bankruptcy, but what that protection might look like has yet to be seen. Given the large number of Yieldcos at very attractive valuations, I see no need to keep Clearway in my top ten picks.
In with the new
Valeo SA (FR.PA, VLEEF) 12/31/18 Price: €25.21/$28.20. Annual Dividend: €1.25. Expected 2019 dividend: €1.25. Low Target: €20. High Target: €50.
My friend and colleague Jan Schalkwijk of JPS Global Investments brought French auto parts supplier Valeo SA. Like many auto stocks, Valeo struggled in 2018 with industry oversupply and the ongoing trade war. This led the stock to fall by more than half, giving it what I consider a very attractive valuation.
Valeo follows the European model of paying a single annual dividend based on the previous year’s profits. Its 2018 dividend was €1.25, which would amount to slightly more than a 5% yield based on the current stock price of €24.55. Analysts estimate the company will earn around €3 per share in 2018, easily enough to maintain that dividend in 2019, and they still expect growth in 2019.
A 7.5 forward P/E ratio and over 5 percent dividend yield would be enough to get me to take any stock seriously, but valuation is not the only factor attracting me to the stock. The company is a leading supplier for two accelerating trends in the automotive industry: electrification and autonomous driving.
The company is a leader in 48V mild hybrid technology, which can deliver most of the fuel savings from of a full hybrid vehicle at a fraction of the cost by allowing the gas engine to turn off instead of idling while the vehicle is stopped. Beyond the technologies of today, Valeo has developed a full 48V electric powertrain system which is 20% less expensive than the high voltage systems used in most electric vehicles today. Although I expect a low voltage electric drivetrain will have lower performance than the typical high voltage system, and so be less attractive to car buyers, it could be extremely well suited to transportation services such as car sharing services and autonomous taxis, such as the Autonom Cab, the world’s first robo-taxi, which was presented by its French designer Navya. This all-electric, driverless vehicle relies on Valeo laser scanners, and LiDAR (light detection and ranging.) While I find it particularly difficult to predict which carmaker is likely to pull ahead in the race to make profitable electric and autonomous vehicles, I feel more confident investing in a part supplier that works with most of them.
Welcome back, Hannon Armstrong
Hannon Armstrong (NYSE:HASI ) 12/31/18 Price: $19.05. Annual Dividend: $1.32. Expected 2019 dividend: $1.32. Low Target: $18. High Target: $27. Last year, I dropped a long time favorite stock, Hannon Armstrong (NYSE:HASI) from the list because I felt the stock was temporarily overvalued. The stock ended 2017 at $24.06, and, as I write on December 28th, is currently trading at $19.54. After the company’s $1.32 annual dividend, this amounts to a 13% loss for the year, well below the average total return of the stocks that made the list.
In the current uncertain environment, I am happy to welcome this unique clean energy financier back into the list. The company arranges financing for a broad range of sustainable infrastructure projects, from renewable energy projects like solar and wind farms, to energy efficient upgrades of buildings for performance contractors and commercial property assessed clean energy loans (c-PACE). Hannon Armstrong’s broad range of clients allows it to focus on the most profitable sectors as certain clean energy technologies go in and out of favor with other financiers, and it also has the expertise to either sell the securities it creates to long term investors like pension funds and insurers when demand is high, or to keep them on its own balance sheet when that is most profitable.
The rising interest rate environment of 2018 meant that Hannon Armstrong did more securitization than in previous years. This strategy delivers short term profits, but does little to increase long term cash flows that can support increases in the dividend. The recent well-timed secondary offering of 5 million shares at $22.40 per share and the refinancing and extension of its secured credit facilities this month hint that the company plans to keep more of the investments it creates in 2019 on its own balance sheet. These investments should easily allow it to achieve Hannon Armstrong to achieve its target 2 percent to 6 percent growth in core earnings per share.
The expected 2 to 6 percent core earnings growth should allow the company to raise its dividend per share by at least one cent in 2019, but I am unsure if management will choose to do so, and instead retain the capital to boost future growth. The company previously had a policy of distributing 100% of core earnings over the course of the year, but said on its first quarter earnings call, “As we grow earnings in 2019 and 2020, we will consider growing the dividend perhaps at a lower growth rate than the growth in core earnings.” Hence I expect a quarterly earnings increase of no more than 1 cent in each of 2019 and 2020. A one cent increase would amount to 3% dividend per share growth per year, towards the lower end of the company’s core earnings growth guidance range. I don’t consider a half cent or no dividend increase at all in 2019 to be out of the question, but I am confident that dividend growth will resume by 2020.
The Marriage of Two Old Friends Innergex’s technology diversification. Source: November 2018 Investor Presentation
Innergex Renewable Energy (Toronto:INE, OTC: INGXF) 12/31/18 Price: C$12.54/$9.27. Annual Dividend: C$0.68. Expected 2019 dividend: C$0.70. Low Target: C$11. High Target: C$16.
Innergex has never been in the model portfolio before, but it has often been a close runner-up. It also acquired 10 Clean Energy Stocks veteran Alterra Power in early 2018. Alterra was featured here in 2012, 2013, and 2014. Like US Yieldcos, Innergex owns wind and solar farms, but also much less common run of river hydropower and geothermal assets.
Innergex also develops its own assets in house as well as acquiring them after they are operational, which is the model for most Yieldcos. While many US Yieldcos are struggling to bring down their payout ratios in order to retain some cash flow for investing, Innergex has kept its payout ratio in the 80 to 90 percent range for the last five years, making it less reliant on the whims of the capital markets to fund future growth.
Updates on Stocks Retained from 2018
Covanta Holding Corp. (NYSE:CVA) 12/31/18 Price: $13.42. Annual Dividend: $1.00. Expected 2019 dividend: $1.00. Low Target: $13. High Target: $25.
Leading waste-to-energy operator Covanta’s stock cratered in December, but only in sympathy with broader market declines. News from Covanta was limited to the expected: breaking ground on a new waste-to-energy combined heat and power in Scotland.
I’m very enthusiastic about the value of Covanta’s stock at the start of 2019. The company shored up its balance sheet and found a source of future funding for growth capital in its partnership with Green Investment Group, but the market has not rewarded the stock. The 7.5 percent current yield is more reflective of a company in financial distress than a company on an (albeit slow) growth trajectory. Atlantica Yield, PLC (NASD:AY) 12/31/18 Price: $19.60. Annual Dividend: $1.44(%). Expected 2018 dividend: $1.52 (%). Low Target: $18. High Target: $30. Atlantica was the former Yieldco of Spanish developer Abengoa before its bankruptcy. Its new parent, Algonquin Power and Utilities (AQN), has gotten it back on track to growth fater a couple tough years as Atlantica dealt with the fallout from its former sponsor’s bankruptcy. During those two years, Atlantica kept its dividend low and reduced debt to strengthen its balance sheet. It has now reached its long term target of an 85% payout ratio, and is growing its portfolio with the recent acquisition of a wind farm in Uruguay.
The location of the recent acquisition in Uruguay is not an aberration. .Atlantica has one of the most geographically diverse portfolios of all Yieldcos, a legacy of its former Spanish sponsor. It has assets not only in the US and Spain, but also in several other countries in South and Central America and Africa. It also adds diversification with significant electrical transmission and water infrastructure.
Pattern Energy Group (NASD:PEGI)
12/31/18 Price: $18.62. Annual Dividend: $1.688(%). Expected 2018 dividend: $1.688(%). Low Target: $18. High Target: $30. Wind energy Yieldco Pattern’s stock price continues to trade as if investors expect a dividend cut. I am not one of those investors, and I am happy to collect the current over 9 percent yield while management continues the slow improvement of cash flow that began in 2018 to bring its payout ratio down to its target payout ratio of 80%. I expect the payout ratio to decline only slowly, and likely end 2019 near 90 percent.
A dividend increase this year is extremely unlikely, but the yield plus any capital gains as investors gain confidence in the stability of the current dividend will be more than adequate reward for holding the stock. Terraform Power (NASD: TERP) 12/31/18 Price: $11.22. Annual Dividend: $0.56 Expected 2018 dividend: $0.60 (%) Low Target: $10. High Target: $16.
Compared to other Yieldcos, Terraform’s stock was fairly resilient in 2018, meaning that it is less of a bargain than several others in this list. Solely on the basis of valuation, I was torn between Terraform and Clearway. While Clearway is trading at a higher yield and both stocks are on similar dividend growth trajectories, Clearway has more underlying risks that compensate for its higher yield (see above.) I chose to retain Terraform in the list out of environmental preference.. I have never been completely comfortable with Clearway’s fossil fuel assets.
Brookfield Renewable Partners, LP (NYSE:BEP) 12/31/18 Price: $25.90. Annual Dividend: $1.96 (%). Expected 2018 dividend: $2.08(%). Low Target: $27. High Target: $40.
The end of 2018 brings the chance to buy what I consider the highest quality Yieldco at a greatly reduced price. Brookfield stands out from other Yieldcos because of its larger size ($8 billion market cap, compared to $3 billion for the next largest, Clearway) which allows it access to low cost debt financing. Its sponsor, Brookfield Asset Management (BAM), which is also Terrafom’s sponsor, also gives it access to flexible financing which has historically allowed it to purchase distressed renewable energy assets at very attractive prices. BAM’s position as a manager of a broad range of leading infrastructure funds like BEP and TERP means that it takes the long view, and its Yieldcos pursue acquisitions when valuations are good rather than getting into bidding wars with other acquirers in the pursuit of growth at any cost.
Brookfield’s managers seem to agree that the partnership became significantly undervaued at the end of 2018. Over the last year, BEP repurchased 1.8 million units on the open market at an average price of $27.72 per share. In contrast, the partnership did not purchase any of its units over the course of 2017, when the share price traded consistently above $30. In fact, it sold 8.3 million units at C$42.15 (US$32.45) each in a secondary offering that year.
One rule of thumb I follow with Yieldcos is that you are likely getting a good value if you can buy the shares at a price below the most recent secondary offering.
Green Plains Partners, LP (NASD: GPP) 12/31/18 Price: $. Annual Dividend: $1.90(%). Expected 2018 dividend: $1.90(%). Low Target: $13. High Target: $27. Ethanol MLP and Yieldco Green Plains Partners remains the riskiest stock in the model portfolio. The ethanol market is suffering from the Trump EPA’s undermining of the Renewable Fuel Standard with “hardship” waivers to large, highly profitable refiners. The price of ethanol’s main competitor, gasoline is low. Retaliatory tariffs on ethanol exports further undermine the market.
GPP’s stock price reflects this distress. GPP’s parent, Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) has fallen as well, and racked up significant losses this year. Nevertheless, analysts expect GPRE’s red ink to stop in 2019. That means that investors can be confident the minimum revenue guarantees that GPRE has given GPP remain safe. Those guarantees should allow GPP to limp along, maintaining its current dividend through the weak ethanol market.
When the ethanol market recovers, the pressure on GPP’s stock price should ease, leading to capital gains for investors who buy at the current price. The ethanol market is in such dire straits that a recovery could be triggered by a number of factors: rising gasoline prices, falling corn prices (perhaps as a result of the continued trade war), a change EPA policy (something advocated by powerful Republicans in the Senate), or the closure of excess ethanol facilities (a process which has already begun.)
While Green Plains Partners is undeniably a risky stock, the current 14 percent dividend is extremely attractive and any recovery in the ethanol market, if it happens, should lead to a dramatic gain in the stock price.
Enviva Partners, LP. (NYSE:EVA) 12/31/18 Price: $27.75. Annual Dividend: $2.54. Expected 2018 dividend: $2.58. Low Target: $24. High Target: $40. Wood pellet Yieldco and Master Limited Partnership Enviva continued its growth through regular drop-down acquisition from its sponsor through 2018, increasing its distribution by a regular 0.5 cents per quarter. With a payout ratio in the high 80 percentile range and a new, lower interest rate credit facility in place, I expect this growth to continue unabated in 2018.
At a 9 percent yield with continued growth of at least three percent per year, the partnership seems likely to produce a solid return while providing good technology diversification.
Final Thoughts
During bear markets, most investors reassess their willingness to take risk. Some sell all their stocks, while others reallocate their investments to less risky stocks. These ten stocks are chosen to benefit from the latter trend. For the most part, they produce steady income streams that are largely independent of economic conditions.
The first stage of the bear market, which we experienced in late 2018, has been mostly composed of indiscriminate selling by investors once again reawakening to the fact that stocks do not always go up. I expect the next stages to be characterized by more discriminate selling, and investors begin to differentiate between stocks that may not do as well in a slowing economy crippled by political uncertainty and trade wars, while holding on to those investments that are less dependent on economic conditions.
The final stage of a bear market is capitulation. In this stage, the optimistic investors who had been holding on to their losers in the hope that the bear market was just a temporary dip give up. The only buyers at that point are deep value investors, who buy based solely on the future cash flows of a company, regardless of any hope of future appreciation. Those deep value investors will put a floor under the stock prices of these ten stocks.
I could also be wrong about the future course of this market. Although it seems unlikely to me, I have a history of underestimating the optimism of investors. Perhaps the current bear market will be short-lived, and the Dow will be hitting new highs by the end of 2019. If that happens, I expect that this model portfolio will produce gains as well, although it will likely lag the gains seen by the broad market of less conservative picks.
If this model portfolio makes modest gains in a mild bear market, makes less than spectacular gains in a recovery, or takes modest losses in a continued severe bear market, it will have accomplished my long term goal. That goal is not taking the big loss, while staying open to the opportunity for gains. As long as you are in the market, every now and then the stars will align, and you will make some great gains, as this model portfolio did in 2016 and 2017. The trick is not to have all those gains disappear in the bad years.
2018 was a bad year, but it’s pretty easy to live with the model portfolio’s 1.3% loss. A severe bear market..
http://bit.ly/2VpNJHg
0 notes
Text
Ten Clean Energy Stocks For 2019
Ten Clean Energy Stocks For 2019
by Tom Konrad Ph.D., CFA
Looking forward to 2019, I’m more optimistic than I have been since the start of 2016, in the wake of the popping of the YieldCo Bubble in late 2015.
The bear market that started in late 2018 seems like it’s far from over, but I expect in early 2019 will see it enter a less chaotic phase. After the wild declines and swings of late 2018, I expect investors will begin the new year with an eye to safety more than growth. This means that the clean energy income stocks which are my focus should outperform riskier growth stocks. The end of interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve should also help these stocks as fewer investors are drawn away by the increasing yields of bonds and other income instruments.
As I write on December 28th, my Ten Clean Energy Stocks for 2018 model portfolio looks like it will end the year with a small loss, but ahead of its benchmarks. You can see its returns through December 28th in the chart below, and stay tuned for a recap sometime in the next week.
Out with the old
With stock prices down and yields up, I plan to keep seven stocks from the 2018 list for 2019. The exceptions are (somewhat coincidentally), the two winners: InfraREIT (HIFR), Seaspan Worldwide (SSW), and Clearway Energy, Inc (NYSE: CWEN and CWEN/A). I’m dropping InfraREIT because the company is being bought out by Oncor in a transaction expected to close sometime in the second quarter. Seaspan is losing its slot for lack of greenery. I always considered the owner of relatively efficient container ships to be marginally green (due to the relative efficiency of its ships compared to those of its peers), and a recent purchase of an interest in liquefied natural gas transportation makes it no longer meet my standard for a green stock.
I’m dropping Clearway mostly based on relative valuation. The company is still attractive, but a little less so than some of the other Yieldcos which made this year’s list. Not only does Clearway have some fossil fuel assets, it also has a large number of power purchase agreements with PG&E (PCG). PG&E, in turn, has significant potential liability from the possible involvement of its equipment in starting some of California’s recent wildfires. Both California’s utility regulators and legislators are working to protect PG&E from bankruptcy, but what that protection might look like has yet to be seen. Given the large number of Yieldcos at very attractive valuations, I see no need to keep Clearway in my top ten picks.
In with the new
Valeo SA (FR.PA, VLEEF) 12/31/18 Price: €25.21/$28.20. Annual Dividend: €1.25. Expected 2019 dividend: €1.25. Low Target: €20. High Target: €50.
My friend and colleague Jan Schalkwijk of JPS Global Investments brought French auto parts supplier Valeo SA. Like many auto stocks, Valeo struggled in 2018 with industry oversupply and the ongoing trade war. This led the stock to fall by more than half, giving it what I consider a very attractive valuation.
Valeo follows the European model of paying a single annual dividend based on the previous year’s profits. Its 2018 dividend was €1.25, which would amount to slightly more than a 5% yield based on the current stock price of €24.55. Analysts estimate the company will earn around €3 per share in 2018, easily enough to maintain that dividend in 2019, and they still expect growth in 2019.
A 7.5 forward P/E ratio and over 5 percent dividend yield would be enough to get me to take any stock seriously, but valuation is not the only factor attracting me to the stock. The company is a leading supplier for two accelerating trends in the automotive industry: electrification and autonomous driving.
The company is a leader in 48V mild hybrid technology, which can deliver most of the fuel savings from of a full hybrid vehicle at a fraction of the cost by allowing the gas engine to turn off instead of idling while the vehicle is stopped. Beyond the technologies of today, Valeo has developed a full 48V electric powertrain system which is 20% less expensive than the high voltage systems used in most electric vehicles today. Although I expect a low voltage electric drivetrain will have lower performance than the typical high voltage system, and so be less attractive to car buyers, it could be extremely well suited to transportation services such as car sharing services and autonomous taxis, such as the Autonom Cab, the world’s first robo-taxi, which was presented by its French designer Navya. This all-electric, driverless vehicle relies on Valeo laser scanners, and LiDAR (light detection and ranging.) While I find it particularly difficult to predict which carmaker is likely to pull ahead in the race to make profitable electric and autonomous vehicles, I feel more confident investing in a part supplier that works with most of them.
Welcome back, Hannon Armstrong
Hannon Armstrong (NYSE:HASI ) 12/31/18 Price: $19.05. Annual Dividend: $1.32. Expected 2019 dividend: $1.32. Low Target: $18. High Target: $27. Last year, I dropped a long time favorite stock, Hannon Armstrong (NYSE:HASI) from the list because I felt the stock was temporarily overvalued. The stock ended 2017 at $24.06, and, as I write on December 28th, is currently trading at $19.54. After the company’s $1.32 annual dividend, this amounts to a 13% loss for the year, well below the average total return of the stocks that made the list.
In the current uncertain environment, I am happy to welcome this unique clean energy financier back into the list. The company arranges financing for a broad range of sustainable infrastructure projects, from renewable energy projects like solar and wind farms, to energy efficient upgrades of buildings for performance contractors and commercial property assessed clean energy loans (c-PACE). Hannon Armstrong’s broad range of clients allows it to focus on the most profitable sectors as certain clean energy technologies go in and out of favor with other financiers, and it also has the expertise to either sell the securities it creates to long term investors like pension funds and insurers when demand is high, or to keep them on its own balance sheet when that is most profitable.
The rising interest rate environment of 2018 meant that Hannon Armstrong did more securitization than in previous years. This strategy delivers short term profits, but does little to increase long term cash flows that can support increases in the dividend. The recent well-timed secondary offering of 5 million shares at $22.40 per share and the refinancing and extension of its secured credit facilities this month hint that the company plans to keep more of the investments it creates in 2019 on its own balance sheet. These investments should easily allow it to achieve Hannon Armstrong to achieve its target 2 percent to 6 percent growth in core earnings per share.
The expected 2 to 6 percent core earnings growth should allow the company to raise its dividend per share by at least one cent in 2019, but I am unsure if management will choose to do so, and instead retain the capital to boost future growth. The company previously had a policy of distributing 100% of core earnings over the course of the year, but said on its first quarter earnings call, “As we grow earnings in 2019 and 2020, we will consider growing the dividend perhaps at a lower growth rate than the growth in core earnings.” Hence I expect a quarterly earnings increase of no more than 1 cent in each of 2019 and 2020. A one cent increase would amount to 3% dividend per share growth per year, towards the lower end of the company’s core earnings growth guidance range. I don’t consider a half cent or no dividend increase at all in 2019 to be out of the question, but I am confident that dividend growth will resume by 2020.
The Marriage of Two Old Friends Innergex’s technology diversification. Source: November 2018 Investor Presentation
Innergex Renewable Energy (Toronto:INE, OTC: INGXF) 12/31/18 Price: C$12.54/$9.27. Annual Dividend: C$0.68. Expected 2019 dividend: C$0.70. Low Target: C$11. High Target: C$16.
Innergex has never been in the model portfolio before, but it has often been a close runner-up. It also acquired 10 Clean Energy Stocks veteran Alterra Power in early 2018. Alterra was featured here in 2012, 2013, and 2014. Like US Yieldcos, Innergex owns wind and solar farms, but also much less common run of river hydropower and geothermal assets.
Innergex also develops its own assets in house as well as acquiring them after they are operational, which is the model for most Yieldcos. While many US Yieldcos are struggling to bring down their payout ratios in order to retain some cash flow for investing, Innergex has kept its payout ratio in the 80 to 90 percent range for the last five years, making it less reliant on the whims of the capital markets to fund future growth.
Updates on Stocks Retained from 2018
Covanta Holding Corp. (NYSE:CVA) 12/31/18 Price: $13.42. Annual Dividend: $1.00. Expected 2019 dividend: $1.00. Low Target: $13. High Target: $25.
Leading waste-to-energy operator Covanta’s stock cratered in December, but only in sympathy with broader market declines. News from Covanta was limited to the expected: breaking ground on a new waste-to-energy combined heat and power in Scotland.
I’m very enthusiastic about the value of Covanta’s stock at the start of 2019. The company shored up its balance sheet and found a source of future funding for growth capital in its partnership with Green Investment Group, but the market has not rewarded the stock. The 7.5 percent current yield is more reflective of a company in financial distress than a company on an (albeit slow) growth trajectory. Atlantica Yield, PLC (NASD:AY) 12/31/18 Price: $19.60. Annual Dividend: $1.44(%). Expected 2018 dividend: $1.52 (%). Low Target: $18. High Target: $30. Atlantica was the former Yieldco of Spanish developer Abengoa before its bankruptcy. Its new parent, Algonquin Power and Utilities (AQN), has gotten it back on track to growth fater a couple tough years as Atlantica dealt with the fallout from its former sponsor’s bankruptcy. During those two years, Atlantica kept its dividend low and reduced debt to strengthen its balance sheet. It has now reached its long term target of an 85% payout ratio, and is growing its portfolio with the recent acquisition of a wind farm in Uruguay.
The location of the recent acquisition in Uruguay is not an aberration. .Atlantica has one of the most geographically diverse portfolios of all Yieldcos, a legacy of its former Spanish sponsor. It has assets not only in the US and Spain, but also in several other countries in South and Central America and Africa. It also adds diversification with significant electrical transmission and water infrastructure.
Pattern Energy Group (NASD:PEGI)
12/31/18 Price: $18.62. Annual Dividend: $1.688(%). Expected 2018 dividend: $1.688(%). Low Target: $18. High Target: $30. Wind energy Yieldco Pattern’s stock price continues to trade as if investors expect a dividend cut. I am not one of those investors, and I am happy to collect the current over 9 percent yield while management continues the slow improvement of cash flow that began in 2018 to bring its payout ratio down to its target payout ratio of 80%. I expect the payout ratio to decline only slowly, and likely end 2019 near 90 percent.
A dividend increase this year is extremely unlikely, but the yield plus any capital gains as investors gain confidence in the stability of the current dividend will be more than adequate reward for holding the stock. Terraform Power (NASD: TERP) 12/31/18 Price: $11.22. Annual Dividend: $0.56 Expected 2018 dividend: $0.60 (%) Low Target: $10. High Target: $16.
Compared to other Yieldcos, Terraform’s stock was fairly resilient in 2018, meaning that it is less of a bargain than several others in this list. Solely on the basis of valuation, I was torn between Terraform and Clearway. While Clearway is trading at a higher yield and both stocks are on similar dividend growth trajectories, Clearway has more underlying risks that compensate for its higher yield (see above.) I chose to retain Terraform in the list out of environmental preference.. I have never been completely comfortable with Clearway’s fossil fuel assets.
Brookfield Renewable Partners, LP (NYSE:BEP) 12/31/18 Price: $25.90. Annual Dividend: $1.96 (%). Expected 2018 dividend: $2.08(%). Low Target: $27. High Target: $40.
The end of 2018 brings the chance to buy what I consider the highest quality Yieldco at a greatly reduced price. Brookfield stands out from other Yieldcos because of its larger size ($8 billion market cap, compared to $3 billion for the next largest, Clearway) which allows it access to low cost debt financing. Its sponsor, Brookfield Asset Management (BAM), which is also Terrafom’s sponsor, also gives it access to flexible financing which has historically allowed it to purchase distressed renewable energy assets at very attractive prices. BAM’s position as a manager of a broad range of leading infrastructure funds like BEP and TERP means that it takes the long view, and its Yieldcos pursue acquisitions when valuations are good rather than getting into bidding wars with other acquirers in the pursuit of growth at any cost.
Brookfield’s managers seem to agree that the partnership became significantly undervaued at the end of 2018. Over the last year, BEP repurchased 1.8 million units on the open market at an average price of $27.72 per share. In contrast, the partnership did not purchase any of its units over the course of 2017, when the share price traded consistently above $30. In fact, it sold 8.3 million units at C$42.15 (US$32.45) each in a secondary offering that year.
One rule of thumb I follow with Yieldcos is that you are likely getting a good value if you can buy the shares at a price below the most recent secondary offering.
Green Plains Partners, LP (NASD: GPP) 12/31/18 Price: $. Annual Dividend: $1.90(%). Expected 2018 dividend: $1.90(%). Low Target: $13. High Target: $27. Ethanol MLP and Yieldco Green Plains Partners remains the riskiest stock in the model portfolio. The ethanol market is suffering from the Trump EPA’s undermining of the Renewable Fuel Standard with “hardship” waivers to large, highly profitable refiners. The price of ethanol’s main competitor, gasoline is low. Retaliatory tariffs on ethanol exports further undermine the market.
GPP’s stock price reflects this distress. GPP’s parent, Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) has fallen as well, and racked up significant losses this year. Nevertheless, analysts expect GPRE’s red ink to stop in 2019. That means that investors can be confident the minimum revenue guarantees that GPRE has given GPP remain safe. Those guarantees should allow GPP to limp along, maintaining its current dividend through the weak ethanol market.
When the ethanol market recovers, the pressure on GPP’s stock price should ease, leading to capital gains for investors who buy at the current price. The ethanol market is in such dire straits that a recovery could be triggered by a number of factors: rising gasoline prices, falling corn prices (perhaps as a result of the continued trade war), a change EPA policy (something advocated by powerful Republicans in the Senate), or the closure of excess ethanol facilities (a process which has already begun.)
While Green Plains Partners is undeniably a risky stock, the current 14 percent dividend is extremely attractive and any recovery in the ethanol market, if it happens, should lead to a dramatic gain in the stock price.
Enviva Partners, LP. (NYSE:EVA) 12/31/18 Price: $27.75. Annual Dividend: $2.54. Expected 2018 dividend: $2.58. Low Target: $24. High Target: $40. Wood pellet Yieldco and Master Limited Partnership Enviva continued its growth through regular drop-down acquisition from its sponsor through 2018, increasing its distribution by a regular 0.5 cents per quarter. With a payout ratio in the high 80 percentile range and a new, lower interest rate credit facility in place, I expect this growth to continue unabated in 2018.
At a 9 percent yield with continued growth of at least three percent per year, the partnership seems likely to produce a solid return while providing good technology diversification.
Final Thoughts
During bear markets, most investors reassess their willingness to take risk. Some sell all their stocks, while others reallocate their investments to less risky stocks. These ten stocks are chosen to benefit from the latter trend. For the most part, they produce steady income streams that are largely independent of economic conditions.
The first stage of the bear market, which we experienced in late 2018, has been mostly composed of indiscriminate selling by investors once again reawakening to the fact that stocks do not always go up. I expect the next stages to be characterized by more discriminate selling, and investors begin to differentiate between stocks that may not do as well in a slowing economy crippled by political uncertainty and trade wars, while holding on to those investments that are less dependent on economic conditions.
The final stage of a bear market is capitulation. In this stage, the optimistic investors who had been holding on to their losers in the hope that the bear market was just a temporary dip give up. The only buyers at that point are deep value investors, who buy based solely on the future cash flows of a company, regardless of any hope of future appreciation. Those deep value investors will put a floor under the stock prices of these ten stocks.
I could also be wrong about the future course of this market. Although it seems unlikely to me, I have a history of underestimating the optimism of investors. Perhaps the current bear market will be short-lived, and the Dow will be hitting new highs by the end of 2019. If that happens, I expect that this model portfolio will produce gains as well, although it will likely lag the gains seen by the broad market of less conservative picks.
If this model portfolio makes modest gains in a mild bear market, makes less than spectacular gains in a recovery, or takes modest losses in a continued severe bear market, it will have accomplished my long term goal. That goal is not taking the big loss, while staying open to the opportunity for gains. As long as you are in the market, every now and then the stars will align, and you will make some great gains, as this model portfolio did in 2016 and 2017. The trick is not to have all those gains disappear in the bad years.
2018 was a bad year, but it’s pretty easy to live with the model portfolio’s 1.3% loss. A severe bear market..
http://bit.ly/2VpNJHg
0 notes
Text
Which Hospital is Best in terms of Cancer Treatment in Mumbai?
Radiation therapy is one of the procedures used to kill cancer cells in the body. If all the cancer cells die, it is known as curative radiotherapy. Radiation therapy is often combined with chemotherapy, or used before surgery, known as neoadjuvant radiotherapy. Adjuvant radiotherapy also minimizes the risk of cancer cells coming back into the patient’s body. It is important to choose the best radiation hospital in Mumbai, as palliative radiotherapy could be used to just curb the early-recurring signs of cancer. If you are planning to undergo chemotherapy in Mumbai, contact the following list of hospitals for the best cancer care.
Best Cancer Treatments in Mumbai
· Jaslok Hospitals and Research Center
The best radiation hospital in Mumbai, Jaslok Hospitals and Research Center, are known for their exemplary service in providing cancer treatments in Mumbai for the last 47 years. In 2008, they acquired a second Linear Accelerator (Siemens ONCOR Expression) with sophisticated Intensity Modulated Radiotherapy (IMRT) and Image-Guided Radiotherapy (IGRT) which allowed very precise radiation dose delivery to the tumor area at the same time protecting nearby normal/critical organs. Their latest linear accelerator the TRUEBEAM system version 2.7 delivers precise dosage quickly and is designed to treat cancer wherever it’s found in the body and comes with many special features and tools for advanced image-guided radiation therapy (IGRT) capabilities like Respiration-synchronized MV/kV radiographs, 4D CBCT, Iterative CBCT, Triggered Imaging and more. They have a distinct three bedded bone marrow and stem cell transplantation unit and are equipped with modern technologies like CyberKnife, IMRT, IGRT, VMAT, and more.
· Tata Memorial Hospital
If you are planning to undergo chemotherapy in Mumbai, choose Tata Memorial Hospitals, the pioneers in providing cancer care. They are the largest cancer hospital in Mumbai, providing 30,000+ surgeries and 400+ laser surgeries every year. They provide advanced stem cell transplantation, targeted therapy, hormonal therapy, etc. for all types of cancers.
· Kokilaben Dhirubhai Ambani Hospital
Kokilaben Dhirubhai Ambani Hospital is a JCI accredited hospital with the largest Bone Marrow Transplantation Unit in the country. It is the only cancer hospital in Mumbai to have Full-Time Specialist System (FTSS). This private hospital in Mumbai also provides advanced cancer treatment like Minimal Access Surgery, Robotic Surgery, Edge Radiosurgery, etc.
· Nanavati Super Speciality Hospital
Nanavati Super Speciality Hospital is one of the best cancer specialists in Mumbai. They are equipped with the latest MR-Focused Guided Ultrasound Surgery. Their modern equipment and specialized team of surgeons are some of the best in Mumbai. They have upgraded their equipment with 3 Tesla 32 channel wide-bore MRI scanners, 64 slice PET-CT, and so on.
· SL Raheja Fortis Hospital
SL Raheja Fortis Hospital is one of the best radiation hospitals in Mumbai with NABH accreditation. They have a team of specialized cardio-vascular and thoracic surgeons, skilled in their craft and committed to providing exemplary care to their patients. Their radiation oncology departments are equipped with Gamma Knife Radiosurgery, Nuclear Medicine, and so on.
Signing Off
The highest possible dose of radiotherapy is targeted against the cancer cells. It is a physically strenuous treatment. Radiation therapy could prove to be an expensive procedure. Hence, you must consult with the best cancer specialist in Mumbai about your treatment goals, how much of your pain would be relieved, whether your body could cope with such a grueling treatment, and so on. If you are an aged person, have diabetes, high blood pressure, high blood sugar, chronic pain, or other illnesses, please be open about them with your doctor. The best cancer treatment in Mumbai may not work effectively if there would be lasting side effects. Men and women are advised to use contraception, as radiotherapy could harm a potential unborn fetus.
#heart transplant in Mumbai India#heart specialist hospital in Mumbai#cardiac care in Mumbai#best private hospital in Mumbai
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Greatest B Com Business Analytics Faculty In Hyderabad
Business analytics uses a statistical strategy to investigate structured knowledge. This PG program from the University of Texas at Austin presents you online lessons with personalized on-line mentorship classes. Successful completion of the project will earn you a post-graduate certification in Data Science and Business Analytics. In Hyderabad, IMS Proschool provides Business Analytics Course certified by NSE Academy at Lakdikapul, Hyderabad. IMS Proschool is the leading classroom supplier of Analytics Education in India and has been constantly ranked among the many Top 5 Analytics Institutes in India by Analytics India Magazine within the year 2016, 17, 18 and 19. In India, the most recent technological domains of information science and Business Analytics are noticed to achieve large traction very quickly. At a primary degree, these web sites are being driven by lots and far of data which is fetched utilizing APIs and RSS Feeds. If you have ever used these web sites, you'd know the convenience of comparing the price of a product from multiple distributors in one place. PriceRunner, Junglee, DealTime are some examples of price comparability web sites. It is a hierarchical construction where inside nodes indicate the dataset features, branches represent the decision guidelines, and each leaf node signifies the end result. Schema design Schema design is a schema diagram that specifies the name of record type, information sort, and different constraints like primary key, overseas key, etc. Here, we'll cowl everything you have to know about SQL programming, such as DBMS, Normalization, Joins, and so forth. Capital Structure Capital Structure in business finance is a method the place an organisation funds its belongings and liabilities using the combination of debt and fairness. Fundamentals of Finance Business Finance is something where you increase and manage funds by business organisations. You will undergo the basics of business finance in this module. Self-Paced Training – Provides a complete set of movies, know-how may be discovered at one’s own pace, lifetime entry additionally contains the latest model of enterprise analytics with R. IMS was based in the yr 1977 and has been targeted on constructing student’s careers. They are making efforts towards finding out the longer term prospects of the professional opportunities. IMS is providing skill-based applications like Finance, Analytics, Accounting, and Marketing. IMS Proschool is the extension of IMS with the same approach of creating individuals notice their potentialities. School facilitates placements via a college placement coordinator. Placement activity can be strengthened by the University's Placement Guidance and Advisory Bureau . You need to hire a cook at your home if a person needs to join as cook dinner at your personal home without having cooking experience, will you supply him/her a cook dinner job?? NO, you will by no means supply a cook job to an individual who doesn’t have cooking experience. Many prime MBA faculties together with IIMs provide Business Analytics as one of many main specializations within their 2 12 months full time MBA programmes. L.E.A.D. is a post-graduate certificate program delivered by TAPMI enterprise faculty in affiliation with Mu Sigma. Let us learn about each kind of institutes providing MBA in Business Analytics programme with the programme name, duration, charge.data scientist training in hyderabad The programme is designed on a schedule that minimises the disruption of work and personal pursuits. The programme is a mixture of classroom and Technology aided studying platform. Participants will usually be on campus for a 5-day schedule of classroom studying each alternate month for 12 months, which might ideally be planned to include a weekend. Oncor's software program uses machine learning to make personalised suggestions for present cancer sufferers supported knowledge from previous ones.
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Ten Clean Energy Stocks For 2019
Ten Clean Energy Stocks For 2019
by Tom Konrad Ph.D., CFA
Looking forward to 2019, I’m more optimistic than I have been since the start of 2016, in the wake of the popping of the YieldCo Bubble in late 2015.
The bear market that started in late 2018 seems like it’s far from over, but I expect in early 2019 will see it enter a less chaotic phase. After the wild declines and swings of late 2018, I expect investors will begin the new year with an eye to safety more than growth. This means that the clean energy income stocks which are my focus should outperform riskier growth stocks. The end of interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve should also help these stocks as fewer investors are drawn away by the increasing yields of bonds and other income instruments.
As I write on December 28th, my Ten Clean Energy Stocks for 2018 model portfolio looks like it will end the year with a small loss, but ahead of its benchmarks. You can see its returns through December 28th in the chart below, and stay tuned for a recap sometime in the next week.
Out with the old
With stock prices down and yields up, I plan to keep seven stocks from the 2018 list for 2019. The exceptions are (somewhat coincidentally), the two winners: InfraREIT (HIFR), Seaspan Worldwide (SSW), and Clearway Energy, Inc (NYSE: CWEN and CWEN/A). I’m dropping InfraREIT because the company is being bought out by Oncor in a transaction expected to close sometime in the second quarter. Seaspan is losing its slot for lack of greenery. I always considered the owner of relatively efficient container ships to be marginally green (due to the relative efficiency of its ships compared to those of its peers), and a recent purchase of an interest in liquefied natural gas transportation makes it no longer meet my standard for a green stock.
I’m dropping Clearway mostly based on relative valuation. The company is still attractive, but a little less so than some of the other Yieldcos which made this year’s list. Not only does Clearway have some fossil fuel assets, it also has a large number of power purchase agreements with PG&E (PCG). PG&E, in turn, has significant potential liability from the possible involvement of its equipment in starting some of California’s recent wildfires. Both California’s utility regulators and legislators are working to protect PG&E from bankruptcy, but what that protection might look like has yet to be seen. Given the large number of Yieldcos at very attractive valuations, I see no need to keep Clearway in my top ten picks.
In with the new
Valeo SA (FR.PA, VLEEF) 12/31/18 Price: €25.21/$28.20. Annual Dividend: €1.25. Expected 2019 dividend: €1.25. Low Target: €20. High Target: €50.
My friend and colleague Jan Schalkwijk of JPS Global Investments brought French auto parts supplier Valeo SA. Like many auto stocks, Valeo struggled in 2018 with industry oversupply and the ongoing trade war. This led the stock to fall by more than half, giving it what I consider a very attractive valuation.
Valeo follows the European model of paying a single annual dividend based on the previous year’s profits. Its 2018 dividend was €1.25, which would amount to slightly more than a 5% yield based on the current stock price of €24.55. Analysts estimate the company will earn around €3 per share in 2018, easily enough to maintain that dividend in 2019, and they still expect growth in 2019.
A 7.5 forward P/E ratio and over 5 percent dividend yield would be enough to get me to take any stock seriously, but valuation is not the only factor attracting me to the stock. The company is a leading supplier for two accelerating trends in the automotive industry: electrification and autonomous driving.
The company is a leader in 48V mild hybrid technology, which can deliver most of the fuel savings from of a full hybrid vehicle at a fraction of the cost by allowing the gas engine to turn off instead of idling while the vehicle is stopped. Beyond the technologies of today, Valeo has developed a full 48V electric powertrain system which is 20% less expensive than the high voltage systems used in most electric vehicles today. Although I expect a low voltage electric drivetrain will have lower performance than the typical high voltage system, and so be less attractive to car buyers, it could be extremely well suited to transportation services such as car sharing services and autonomous taxis, such as the Autonom Cab, the world’s first robo-taxi, which was presented by its French designer Navya. This all-electric, driverless vehicle relies on Valeo laser scanners, and LiDAR (light detection and ranging.) While I find it particularly difficult to predict which carmaker is likely to pull ahead in the race to make profitable electric and autonomous vehicles, I feel more confident investing in a part supplier that works with most of them.
Welcome back, Hannon Armstrong
Hannon Armstrong (NYSE:HASI ) 12/31/18 Price: $19.05. Annual Dividend: $1.32. Expected 2019 dividend: $1.32. Low Target: $18. High Target: $27. Last year, I dropped a long time favorite stock, Hannon Armstrong (NYSE:HASI) from the list because I felt the stock was temporarily overvalued. The stock ended 2017 at $24.06, and, as I write on December 28th, is currently trading at $19.54. After the company’s $1.32 annual dividend, this amounts to a 13% loss for the year, well below the average total return of the stocks that made the list.
In the current uncertain environment, I am happy to welcome this unique clean energy financier back into the list. The company arranges financing for a broad range of sustainable infrastructure projects, from renewable energy projects like solar and wind farms, to energy efficient upgrades of buildings for performance contractors and commercial property assessed clean energy loans (c-PACE). Hannon Armstrong’s broad range of clients allows it to focus on the most profitable sectors as certain clean energy technologies go in and out of favor with other financiers, and it also has the expertise to either sell the securities it creates to long term investors like pension funds and insurers when demand is high, or to keep them on its own balance sheet when that is most profitable.
The rising interest rate environment of 2018 meant that Hannon Armstrong did more securitization than in previous years. This strategy delivers short term profits, but does little to increase long term cash flows that can support increases in the dividend. The recent well-timed secondary offering of 5 million shares at $22.40 per share and the refinancing and extension of its secured credit facilities this month hint that the company plans to keep more of the investments it creates in 2019 on its own balance sheet. These investments should easily allow it to achieve Hannon Armstrong to achieve its target 2 percent to 6 percent growth in core earnings per share.
The expected 2 to 6 percent core earnings growth should allow the company to raise its dividend per share by at least one cent in 2019, but I am unsure if management will choose to do so, and instead retain the capital to boost future growth. The company previously had a policy of distributing 100% of core earnings over the course of the year, but said on its first quarter earnings call, “As we grow earnings in 2019 and 2020, we will consider growing the dividend perhaps at a lower growth rate than the growth in core earnings.” Hence I expect a quarterly earnings increase of no more than 1 cent in each of 2019 and 2020. A one cent increase would amount to 3% dividend per share growth per year, towards the lower end of the company’s core earnings growth guidance range. I don’t consider a half cent or no dividend increase at all in 2019 to be out of the question, but I am confident that dividend growth will resume by 2020.
The Marriage of Two Old Friends Innergex’s technology diversification. Source: November 2018 Investor Presentation
Innergex Renewable Energy (Toronto:INE, OTC: INGXF) 12/31/18 Price: C$12.54/$9.27. Annual Dividend: C$0.68. Expected 2019 dividend: C$0.70. Low Target: C$11. High Target: C$16.
Innergex has never been in the model portfolio before, but it has often been a close runner-up. It also acquired 10 Clean Energy Stocks veteran Alterra Power in early 2018. Alterra was featured here in 2012, 2013, and 2014. Like US Yieldcos, Innergex owns wind and solar farms, but also much less common run of river hydropower and geothermal assets.
Innergex also develops its own assets in house as well as acquiring them after they are operational, which is the model for most Yieldcos. While many US Yieldcos are struggling to bring down their payout ratios in order to retain some cash flow for investing, Innergex has kept its payout ratio in the 80 to 90 percent range for the last five years, making it less reliant on the whims of the capital markets to fund future growth.
Updates on Stocks Retained from 2018
Covanta Holding Corp. (NYSE:CVA) 12/31/18 Price: $13.42. Annual Dividend: $1.00. Expected 2019 dividend: $1.00. Low Target: $13. High Target: $25.
Leading waste-to-energy operator Covanta’s stock cratered in December, but only in sympathy with broader market declines. News from Covanta was limited to the expected: breaking ground on a new waste-to-energy combined heat and power in Scotland.
I’m very enthusiastic about the value of Covanta’s stock at the start of 2019. The company shored up its balance sheet and found a source of future funding for growth capital in its partnership with Green Investment Group, but the market has not rewarded the stock. The 7.5 percent current yield is more reflective of a company in financial distress than a company on an (albeit slow) growth trajectory. Atlantica Yield, PLC (NASD:AY) 12/31/18 Price: $19.60. Annual Dividend: $1.44(%). Expected 2018 dividend: $1.52 (%). Low Target: $18. High Target: $30. Atlantica was the former Yieldco of Spanish developer Abengoa before its bankruptcy. Its new parent, Algonquin Power and Utilities (AQN), has gotten it back on track to growth fater a couple tough years as Atlantica dealt with the fallout from its former sponsor’s bankruptcy. During those two years, Atlantica kept its dividend low and reduced debt to strengthen its balance sheet. It has now reached its long term target of an 85% payout ratio, and is growing its portfolio with the recent acquisition of a wind farm in Uruguay.
The location of the recent acquisition in Uruguay is not an aberration. .Atlantica has one of the most geographically diverse portfolios of all Yieldcos, a legacy of its former Spanish sponsor. It has assets not only in the US and Spain, but also in several other countries in South and Central America and Africa. It also adds diversification with significant electrical transmission and water infrastructure.
Pattern Energy Group (NASD:PEGI)
12/31/18 Price: $18.62. Annual Dividend: $1.688(%). Expected 2018 dividend: $1.688(%). Low Target: $18. High Target: $30. Wind energy Yieldco Pattern’s stock price continues to trade as if investors expect a dividend cut. I am not one of those investors, and I am happy to collect the current over 9 percent yield while management continues the slow improvement of cash flow that began in 2018 to bring its payout ratio down to its target payout ratio of 80%. I expect the payout ratio to decline only slowly, and likely end 2019 near 90 percent.
A dividend increase this year is extremely unlikely, but the yield plus any capital gains as investors gain confidence in the stability of the current dividend will be more than adequate reward for holding the stock. Terraform Power (NASD: TERP) 12/31/18 Price: $11.22. Annual Dividend: $0.56 Expected 2018 dividend: $0.60 (%) Low Target: $10. High Target: $16.
Compared to other Yieldcos, Terraform’s stock was fairly resilient in 2018, meaning that it is less of a bargain than several others in this list. Solely on the basis of valuation, I was torn between Terraform and Clearway. While Clearway is trading at a higher yield and both stocks are on similar dividend growth trajectories, Clearway has more underlying risks that compensate for its higher yield (see above.) I chose to retain Terraform in the list out of environmental preference.. I have never been completely comfortable with Clearway’s fossil fuel assets.
Brookfield Renewable Partners, LP (NYSE:BEP) 12/31/18 Price: $25.90. Annual Dividend: $1.96 (%). Expected 2018 dividend: $2.08(%). Low Target: $27. High Target: $40.
The end of 2018 brings the chance to buy what I consider the highest quality Yieldco at a greatly reduced price. Brookfield stands out from other Yieldcos because of its larger size ($8 billion market cap, compared to $3 billion for the next largest, Clearway) which allows it access to low cost debt financing. Its sponsor, Brookfield Asset Management (BAM), which is also Terrafom’s sponsor, also gives it access to flexible financing which has historically allowed it to purchase distressed renewable energy assets at very attractive prices. BAM’s position as a manager of a broad range of leading infrastructure funds like BEP and TERP means that it takes the long view, and its Yieldcos pursue acquisitions when valuations are good rather than getting into bidding wars with other acquirers in the pursuit of growth at any cost.
Brookfield’s managers seem to agree that the partnership became significantly undervaued at the end of 2018. Over the last year, BEP repurchased 1.8 million units on the open market at an average price of $27.72 per share. In contrast, the partnership did not purchase any of its units over the course of 2017, when the share price traded consistently above $30. In fact, it sold 8.3 million units at C$42.15 (US$32.45) each in a secondary offering that year.
One rule of thumb I follow with Yieldcos is that you are likely getting a good value if you can buy the shares at a price below the most recent secondary offering.
Green Plains Partners, LP (NASD: GPP) 12/31/18 Price: $. Annual Dividend: $1.90(%). Expected 2018 dividend: $1.90(%). Low Target: $13. High Target: $27. Ethanol MLP and Yieldco Green Plains Partners remains the riskiest stock in the model portfolio. The ethanol market is suffering from the Trump EPA’s undermining of the Renewable Fuel Standard with “hardship” waivers to large, highly profitable refiners. The price of ethanol’s main competitor, gasoline is low. Retaliatory tariffs on ethanol exports further undermine the market.
GPP’s stock price reflects this distress. GPP’s parent, Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) has fallen as well, and racked up significant losses this year. Nevertheless, analysts expect GPRE’s red ink to stop in 2019. That means that investors can be confident the minimum revenue guarantees that GPRE has given GPP remain safe. Those guarantees should allow GPP to limp along, maintaining its current dividend through the weak ethanol market.
When the ethanol market recovers, the pressure on GPP’s stock price should ease, leading to capital gains for investors who buy at the current price. The ethanol market is in such dire straits that a recovery could be triggered by a number of factors: rising gasoline prices, falling corn prices (perhaps as a result of the continued trade war), a change EPA policy (something advocated by powerful Republicans in the Senate), or the closure of excess ethanol facilities (a process which has already begun.)
While Green Plains Partners is undeniably a risky stock, the current 14 percent dividend is extremely attractive and any recovery in the ethanol market, if it happens, should lead to a dramatic gain in the stock price.
Enviva Partners, LP. (NYSE:EVA) 12/31/18 Price: $27.75. Annual Dividend: $2.54. Expected 2018 dividend: $2.58. Low Target: $24. High Target: $40. Wood pellet Yieldco and Master Limited Partnership Enviva continued its growth through regular drop-down acquisition from its sponsor through 2018, increasing its distribution by a regular 0.5 cents per quarter. With a payout ratio in the high 80 percentile range and a new, lower interest rate credit facility in place, I expect this growth to continue unabated in 2018.
At a 9 percent yield with continued growth of at least three percent per year, the partnership seems likely to produce a solid return while providing good technology diversification.
Final Thoughts
During bear markets, most investors reassess their willingness to take risk. Some sell all their stocks, while others reallocate their investments to less risky stocks. These ten stocks are chosen to benefit from the latter trend. For the most part, they produce steady income streams that are largely independent of economic conditions.
The first stage of the bear market, which we experienced in late 2018, has been mostly composed of indiscriminate selling by investors once again reawakening to the fact that stocks do not always go up. I expect the next stages to be characterized by more discriminate selling, and investors begin to differentiate between stocks that may not do as well in a slowing economy crippled by political uncertainty and trade wars, while holding on to those investments that are less dependent on economic conditions.
The final stage of a bear market is capitulation. In this stage, the optimistic investors who had been holding on to their losers in the hope that the bear market was just a temporary dip give up. The only buyers at that point are deep value investors, who buy based solely on the future cash flows of a company, regardless of any hope of future appreciation. Those deep value investors will put a floor under the stock prices of these ten stocks.
I could also be wrong about the future course of this market. Although it seems unlikely to me, I have a history of underestimating the optimism of investors. Perhaps the current bear market will be short-lived, and the Dow will be hitting new highs by the end of 2019. If that happens, I expect that this model portfolio will produce gains as well, although it will likely lag the gains seen by the broad market of less conservative picks.
If this model portfolio makes modest gains in a mild bear market, makes less than spectacular gains in a recovery, or takes modest losses in a continued severe bear market, it will have accomplished my long term goal. That goal is not taking the big loss, while staying open to the opportunity for gains. As long as you are in the market, every now and then the stars will align, and you will make some great gains, as this model portfolio did in 2016 and 2017. The trick is not to have all those gains disappear in the bad years.
2018 was a bad year, but it’s pretty easy to live with the model portfolio’s 1.3% loss. A severe bear market..
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