#ohSHITnik

[kramlabs]

What will be the new retaliation target? If Yuzhmash was a “adequate demonstration of capability” (speed, precision, kinetic penetration), the next strike will be labeled as “moderate” or “intensive” as they move up their escalation flow chart.

Aegis Ashore Redzikowo:

mihail kogalniceanu air base:

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If we are on the same timeline as Yuzhmash, Oreshnik will be on display for another day or so at Kapustin Yar before being launched at retaliation target.

. https://www.tumblr.com/kramlabs/768169139443531776/kaputsin-yar-the-russian-area-51-equivalent

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Update: the closed airspace announcement for Kaputsin Yar 51, specifies a window when retaliation could occur

[kyustastu]

YEESSSSSSSS ! :DYou aren't deactivating ! I love you so much ;~; lol

lol dw i wont be deleting my blog any time soon, keke, thank you for your concern lmao ^^;;

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[kramlabs]

Launch MIRV decoys first to follow their “escalation management” policy? A “what could have been” warning shot?

*or they were deep penetrators hitting a hardened target and very far away from camera. (Update: Yuzhmash?)

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*demonstration of capability to be followed by adequate inflictions of damage, as they move up through the escalation management program.

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UPDATE:

[kramlabs]

Kirillov assassination a NATO attack 4 miles from the Kremlin?

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I missed this report when it happened:

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[kramlabs]

Dustification at Yuzhmash

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[kramlabs]

How The New Russian Missiles Are Changing The Game

Via B at Moon of Alabama

To describe a weapon system as a game changer on the battlefield is always open to be ridiculed. Many of the weapon systems that have been delivered to Ukraine were called game changing but failed to make any difference in the outcome of that war.

So why did I call the new Russian Oreshnik missile a 'game changer'?

There are several reasons.

For one the missile with its 36 kinetic war heads is an unexpected response to the U.S. abolition of the Intermediate Range Nuclear Force (INF) treaty. The U.S. had hoped that the stationing of nuclear missiles in Europe might give it an advantage over Russia. Oreshnik denies that advantage WITHOUT resorting to nuclear force.

Any U.S. attempt to pressure Russia into a situation where it would either have to concede to the U.S. or to go nuclear has been demolished.

This is most visible in Ukraine. Over the two plus years of the war the U.S. has used a 'boiling the frog' strategy against Russia. It increased the temperature by slowly increasing the reach and lethality of the weapons it has provided to Ukraine. In each such step, the delivery of tanks, of Himars, of ATAMACs, of allowing Ukraine to use these on Russian grounds, was declared to be a move across imaginary Russian red lines. Each such step was accompanied by propaganda which claimed that Russia was looking into a nuclear response.

The aim was to push Russia into a situation where it could either make concessions over Ukraine or use nuclear weapons. The U.S. was sure that Russia would refrain from the later because it would put Russia into the position of an international pariah. By going nuclear it would lose support from its allies in China and beyond. It would also risk an all out nuclear war.

The strategy would probably have worked if Russia had not found an asymmetric response against it. It now has non-nuclear weapons, (the Oreshnik will not be the only one), which allow it to apply the equivalent of nuclear strikes without the dirty side effects of actually going nuclear.

Russia's announcement that future Oreshnik deployments will come under the command of its Strategic Forces -which so far have only been nuclear. This is a clear sign that these new weapons are seen as having similar strategic effects.

The kinetic concept of the Oreshnik payload is not a new one. Mass times speed is the amount of destructive energy these can deliver. Being hypersonic and hitting the targets with Mach 10 allows even small penetrators to have strong, explosive like effects.

In the early 1980s president Reagan's Strategic Defense Initiative included several attempts to introduce kinetic weapons. 'Rods from God' (and later 'Brilliant Pebbles') were conceptualized as kinetic darts to be launched from satellites to hit Soviet ICBM missiles:

A system described in the 2003 United States Air Force report called Hypervelocity Rod Bundles was that of 20-foot-long (6.1 m), 1-foot-diameter (0.30 m) tungsten rods that are satellite-controlled and have global strike capability, with impact speeds of Mach 10. The bomb would naturally contain large kinetic energy because it moves at orbital velocities, around 8 kilometres per second (26,000 ft/s; Mach 24) in orbit and 3 kilometres per second (9,800 ft/s; Mach 8.8) at impact. As the rod reenters Earth's atmosphere, it would lose most of its velocity, but the remaining energy would cause considerable damage. Some systems are quoted as having the yield of a small tactical nuclear bomb. These designs are envisioned as a bunker buster.

None came from it. The envisioned penetrators had to be too large and too heavy to be positioned in space. The huge 'telephone pole' size of the penetrators was need because these would burn up during the hypersonic flight through the atmosphere.

The penetrators Oreshnik is using are much smaller.

Russia seems to have solved some general physical problems of objects flying at hypersonic speed. In March 2018 Russia's president Vladimir Putin announced the introduction of several new weapons designed to penetrate U.S. missile defenses. One of these was the hypersonic glide vehicle now known as Avangard:

The use of new composite materials has made it possible to enable the gliding cruise bloc to make a long-distance guided flight practically in conditions of plasma formation. It flies to its target like a meteorite, like a ball of fire. The temperature on its surface reaches 1,600–2,000 degrees Celsius but the cruise bloc is reliably guided.  ... We are well aware that a number of other countries are developing advanced weapons with new physical properties. We have every reason to believe that we are one step ahead there as well – at any rate, in the most essential areas.

I have since been looking for what 'new physical properties' or principles Russian scientist might have discovered to solve the problems of guided hypersonic travel within a plasma envelope. Nothing has come up so far. But the fact that Oreshnik is using relative small guided projectiles at hypersonic speed makes it likely that the new physical properties or principles the Russians discovered have also been applied to this weapon.

Until those basic scientific discoveries become known in the west there will be no chance for it to make weapons that can match the characteristics of Oreshnik and Avanguard.

Oreshnik is, so far, a non nuclear weapon with a limited (5,000 kilometer) range. But there is nothing in principle that hinders Russia from equipping an ICBM missile with similar non-nuclear capabilities. It would make non-nuclear strikes by Russia on U.S. grounds, or more likely on U.S. foreign bases and aircraft carriers, possible.

But those facts, and their consequences, have yet to penetrate the minds of western decision makers.

Even after the Oreshnik strike happened the U.S. continued to pin prick Russia by guiding Ukraine to fire ATAMAC missiles against targets in Russia. Yesterday the Russian Ministry of Defense announced, uncharacteristically, that two such attacks had taken place:

On 23 November, the enemy fired five U.S.-made ATACMS operational-tactical missiles at a position of an S-400 anti-aircraft battalion near Lotarevka (37 kilometres north-west of Kursk). During a surface-to-air battle, a Pantsir AAMG crew protecting the battalion destroyed three ATACMS missiles, and two hit their intended targets.  ... On 25 November, the Kiev regime delivered one more strike by eight ATACMS operational-tactical missiles at the Kursk-Vostochny airfield (near Khalino). Seven missile were shot down by S-400 SAM and Pantsir AAMG systems, one missile hit the assigned target.

Militarily these strikes are irrelevant. But they demonstrate that the U.S. is still trying to 'boil the frog' even after it has escaped from the vessel. Russia has, according to Putin, several Oreshnik and similar weapons ready to launch.

The potential target for such missiles are obvious:

MOSCOW, November 21. /TASS/. The US missile defense base in Poland has long been considered a priority target for potential neutralization by the Russian Armed Forces, Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova stated during a briefing. "Given the level of threats posed by such Western military facilities, the missile defense base in Poland has long been included among the priority targets for potential neutralization. If necessary, this can be achieved using a wide range of advanced weaponry," the diplomat said.

Russia has closed the airspace over the Kapustin Yar missile range until November 30. Kapustin Yar is the test range from which the Oreshnik had been fired.

As there is no defense possible against Oreshnik type weapons Russia could announce a strike on the U.S. controlled Redzikow base in Poland days or hours before it would take place. As the strike would be announced, conventional in type and would cause few if any casualties it seems unlikely that NATO would apply Article 5 to it and to hit back with force.

Such would become a moment where the boiling of the frog would start again but this time with the U.S. being the frog inside of the vessel.  Russia, by hitting U.S. bases in Europe by conventional means, would increase the temperature day after day.

Would the U.S. dare to go nuclear over this or rather retreat from its plans to defeat Russia?

Posted by b on November 27, 2024 at 12:45 UTC | Permalink

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[kramlabs]

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And don’t forget hypersonics are deployed on Russian naval ships too: https://www.tumblr.com/kramlabs/705599874788409344/5-minutes

[kramlabs]

Putin statement on the West’s strikes into Russian territory outside the SMO area*

President of Russia Vladimir Putin: I would like to inform the military personnel of the Russian Federation Armed Forces, citizens of our country, our friends across the globe, and those who persist in the illusion that a strategic defeat can be inflicted upon Russia, about the events taking place today in the zone of the special military operation, specifically following the attacks by Western long-range weapons against our territory.

The escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, instigated by the West, continues with the United States and its NATO allies previously announcing that they authorise the use of their long-range high-precision weapons for strikes inside the Russian Federation. Experts are well aware, and the Russian side has repeatedly highlighted it, that the use of such weapons is not possible without the direct involvement of military experts from the manufacturing nations.

On November 19, six ATACMS tactical ballistic missiles produced by the United States, and on November 21, during a combined missile assault involving British Storm Shadow systems and HIMARS systems produced by the US, attacked military facilities inside the Russian Federation in the Bryansk and Kursk regions. From that point onward, as we have repeatedly emphasised in prior communications, the regional conflict in Ukraine provoked by the West has assumed elements of a global nature. Our air defence systems successfully counteracted these incursions, preventing the enemy from achieving their apparent objectives.

The fire at the ammunition depot in the Bryansk Region, caused by the debris of ATACMS missiles, was extinguished without casualties or significant damage. In the Kursk Region, the attack targeted one of the command posts of our group North. Regrettably, the attack and the subsequent air defence battle resulted in casualties, both fatalities and injuries, among the perimeter security units and servicing staff. However, the command and operational staff of the control centre suffered no casualties and continues to manage effectively the operations of our forces to eliminate and push enemy units out of the Kursk Region.

I wish to underscore once again that the use by the enemy of such weapons cannot affect the course of combat operations in the special military operation zone. Our forces are making successful advances along the entire line of contact, and all objectives we have set will be accomplished.

In response to the deployment of American and British long-range weapons, on November 21, the Russian Armed Forces delivered a combined strike on a facility within Ukraine’s defence industrial complex. In field conditions, we also carried out tests of one of Russia’s latest medium-range missile systems – in this case, carrying a non-nuclear hypersonic ballistic missile that our engineers named Oreshnik. The tests were successful, achieving the intended objective of the launch. In the city of Dnepropetrovsk, Ukraine, one of the largest and most famous industrial complexes from the Soviet Union era, which continues to produce missiles and other armaments, was hit.

We are developing intermediate-range and shorter-range missiles in response to US plans to produce and deploy intermediate-range and shorter-range missiles in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region. We believe that the United States made a mistake by unilaterally destroying the INF Treaty in 2019 under far-fetched pretext. Today, the United States is not only producing such equipment, but, as we can see, it has worked out ways to deploy its advanced missile systems to different regions of the world, including Europe, during training exercises for its troops. Moreover, in the course of these exercises, they are conducting training for using them.

As a reminder, Russia has voluntarily and unilaterally committed not to deploy intermediate-range and shorter-range missiles until US weapons of this kind appear in any region of the world.

To reiterate, we are conducting combat tests of the Oreshnik missile system in response to NATO’s aggressive actions against Russia. Our decision on further deployment of intermediate-range and shorter-range missiles will depend on the actions of the United States and its satellites.

We will determine the targets during further tests of our advanced missile systems based on the threats to the security of the Russian Federation. We consider ourselves entitled to use our weapons against military facilities of those countries that allow to use their weapons against our facilities, and in case of an escalation of aggressive actions, we will respond decisively and in mirror-like manner. I recommend that the ruling elites of the countries that are hatching plans to use their military contingents against Russia seriously consider this.

It goes without saying that when choosing, if necessary and as a retaliatory measure, targets to be hit by systems such as Oreshnik on Ukrainian territory, we will in advance suggest that civilians and citizens of friendly countries residing in those areas leave danger zones. We will do so for humanitarian reasons, openly and publicly, without fear of counter-moves coming from the enemy, who will also be receiving this information.

Why without fear? Because there are no means of countering such weapons today. Missiles attack targets at a speed of Mach 10, which is 2.5 to 3 kilometres per second. Air defence systems currently available in the world and missile defence systems being created by the Americans in Europe cannot intercept such missiles. It is impossible.

I would like to emphasise once again that it was not Russia, but the United States that destroyed the international security system and, by continuing to fight, cling to its hegemony, they are pushing the whole world into a global conflict.

We have always preferred and are ready now to resolve all disputes by peaceful means. But we are also ready for any turn of events.

If anyone still doubts this, make no mistake: there will always be a response.

Publication date:  November 21, 2024, 20:10

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*strikes inside Russia's pre-2014 borders

[kramlabs]

>5 minutes

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[kramlabs]

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Communities are a new way to connect with the people on Tumblr who care about the things you care about! Browse Communities to find the perfect one for your interests or create a new one and invite your friends and mutuals!

[kramlabs]

“How about a duel?”

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. https://x.com/simpatico771/status/1869757834306666563?s=46

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All 4 plus hours:

[kramlabs]

. https://www.kyivpost.com/analysis/43765

[kramlabs]

More on ohSHITnik

[kramlabs]

Kaputsin Yar, the Russian Area 51 equivalent, launched the Oreshnik hypersonic MIRV missile after leaving it exposed for 36 hours to spy satellites on the tarmac pointed toward Ukraine. And as an additional courtesy, phone called the US 30 min prior to launching.

[kramlabs]

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