#nonlinear structural analysis

[extremeloading11]

Is Nonlinear Structural Analysis Right for Your Project? Here’s What to Consider

Understanding the real behavior of structures under stress is important in advanced construction and engineering projects. That’s where Nonlinear Structural Analysis comes in. It helps capture how a structure will react beyond its elastic limits, offering a clearer picture than traditional linear approaches. This type of analysis is especially helpful when projects involve irregular geometries or advanced materials. Using Nonlinear Structural Analysis can help highlight weak points early and support more accurate design strategies. For any project where safety, accuracy, and performance matter, taking the time to explore the right type of analysis can make a difference. Read the full blog for more information - https://extremeloading11.medium.com/is-nonlinear-structural-analysis-right-for-your-project-heres-what-to-consider-c171b96bdef6

[multbasa]

Okay, this is so frustrating. I'm finding it difficult to watch reaction and analysis videos about the new Hyrule Warriors game because people keep claiming that Age of Calamity depicts the events of BotW 100 years ago up until the future Champions are brought into the game. There are even people who claim that AoC RETCONS BotW in the comments section.

No.

Age of Calamity diverts from BotW long before the opening moments of the game since Link does not have the Master Sword when he did in BotW.

Link explicitly gets the Sword before the Champions are chosen and before he meets Zelda according to memories and diaries in the game including the DLC.

Mipha knew Link before he had the sword and comments about his change after getting it before she was asked to be a Champion. Purah's Diary mentions that Link was the youngest to become part of the Royal Guard before he was assigned as Captain of Zelda's Personal Guard. Revali comments in his DLC memory to Zelda that she shouldn't blame him if the Hero gets cold feet after seeing him in action [edit: I got mixed up with his diary which says this part. In the memory, he's a little more humble in front of Zelda saying that he knows that he will play the biggest part in helping the "little knight with the darkness-sealing sword"]. Mipha asks Zelda in her DLC memory who the other Champions are when she was recruited and Zelda mentions Link the one with the Sword. Zelda's diary mentions how Link told her about how his personality changed due to the pressure of being the Hero with the Sword because that was before they met.

These are NOT implied or little details. This has a significant impact on the characters and their relationships between one another.

In AoC the situation is changed from the get-go: Link is a regular knight who is not recognized by the king until he gets promoted after the opening battle. His relationship with Zelda is very positive and she allows him to protect her without avoiding him because she lacks the negative feelings she had in BotW since he doesn't have the Sword and isn't recognized as the Hero. Mipha remarks "you've grown since I last saw you, and yet you have not changed" because he didn't have the weight of being the Hero placed on his back. He enthusiastically eats rocks with Daruk and doesn't have issues where characters like Zelda and Revali are put off by his silence despite the fact that he's still a silent protagonist. When they all go to the Lost Woods in hopes of finding the Hero and the Sword, Revali remarks how Link is a "nobody" tagging along with the Champions. When Link gets the Master Sword and Zelda feels insecure about herself, Urbosa remarks that Link is still the same boy she knew.

These are two different stories!! With different relationships between the characters!! It drives me nuts because not everything is hidden in a little bit of lore, you can see the difference by just watching the BotW memories which do not work with AoC's story at all! The Champions are even recruited in completely different ways!

AoC doesn't depict the events of BotW not even from the start of the game. Sigh...I have a comparison timeline pinned on my page if anyone cares to read it. I just want to appreciate both these games without people declaring that AoC retcons BotW simply because they didn't like the nonlinear structure of BotW's narrative... I adore BotW's story and lore so much. Please stop erasing it.

[therentyoupay]

TRYP thoughts on characterization

jack frost // elsa | characterization considerations

PART 4 | THEIR ICE POWERS (OR AU-EQUIVALENT) & SHARED CONNECTIONS:

ground rules + intro

overview: the tl;dr of my personality + dialogue choices

deep dive: characterization, personality, + identity

shared ice powers (or AU-equivalent) + shared connections

questions/points to consider as you write

PART 4 | THEIR ICE POWERS (OR AU-EQUIVALENT) & SHARED CONNECTIONS:

(STAY TUNED FOR AN IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS OF ❄️❄️❄️SNOWFLAKES, FROST, ICE, AND STRUCTURES❄️❄️❄️ [and more???] BY CALLI, @callimara, FORTHCOMING, but also initially explored in mtyk.)

you didn’t think i was going to not mention it, right?? but super honestly i almost forgot to write this section. 😂 i’ve written so many AUs, this point is not even always at the front of my mind anymore, but let’s dig in. ❄️❄️❄️

❄️❄️❄️❄️ this is usually how it goes, i feel, more or less:

a double-edged sword: 

elsa’s ice powers are an integral part of her identity, initially a source of both immense strength and bone-deep, soul-wrenching fear. throughout much of her life, she has been taught to suppress her abilities (her emotions), leading her to associate her powers with danger and potential harm, especially to those she cares about. this repression has caused her to view her powers as something to be controlled, rather than fully embraced, leaving her constantly on guard, always fearing that she might lose control and hurt someone.

jack’s unique perspective and transformative influence:

however, as elsa’s relationship with jack develops (in whatever universe), she begins to see her powers in a new light. jack, who also wields ice magic—and is OFTEN the FIRST and ONLY other ice-wielder that she knows of—understands the intricacies and challenges that come with such abilities. unlike others who have only seen elsa’s powers as something to fear or control, jack sees them as a natural extension of who she is—a gift, rather than a curse. 

this perspective is transformative for elsa. it allows her to slowly let go (👀) of the fear that has always accompanied her powers and begin to explore their full potential without the constant need to hold back.

liberation, trust, journey toward embracing her powers:

with jack by her side, elsa experiences—depending on the story—a newfound sense of security in using her powers. she no longer feels the need to restrain herself out of fear of causing harm (unless…….. it is angst. 👀). jack’s presence and his own mastery of ice magic provide her with a sense of understanding and acceptance that she has rarely experienced. 

unique bond and understanding:

this shared connection through their powers creates a bond between them that goes beyond the physical—it’s in some ways a sort of spiritual trust that they are safe with each other (unless it’s angst, at the center readers, you remember the scene 👀), that they can fully be themselves without judgment or fear. (unless, of course: ANGST.)

eventually, gradually: empowerment and healing:

if/when this freedom does occur, for elsa, this new sense of safety and security in using her powers is a liberating experience. she begins to experiment with her powers in ways she never dared before, discovering new facets of her abilities and pushing the boundaries of what she thought was possible. the trust she feels in jack’s presence allows her to let go of her inhibitions and truly explore the extent of her magic. 

it’s a process of self-discovery that is both empowering and healing, as she starts to view her powers not as something to be feared, but as an essential part of who she is.

cycle of growth and healing, strengthening their connection:

this newfound freedom also deepens her connection with jack, thereby pushing them into a cycle of growing and healing (unless: angst 😂, in which case, this cycle may still happen but SLOWLY and PAINFULLY, in stops and starts, in nonlinear patterns).

mutual understanding, support, and solidarity:

as they face challenges together, elsa finds that she can rely on jack not just as a partner in battle (or daily life, depending on the story, which could also be a “battle” 😂), but as someone who understands the unique burden of their shared powers (and, in the cases where they don’t share powers… their shared sense of Sacrifice 🥹 and their love for their younger sisters). this mutual understanding creates a sense of solidarity and, occasionally, camaraderie between them, making both of them feel less alone in their struggles.

growing confidence, deeper connection, shared purposes:

ultimately, elsa’s ice powers, once a source of fear and repression, become a symbol of her growing confidence and self-acceptance. through her relationship with jack, she learns to embrace her abilities without fear, finding strength in the trust and security they share. this transformation allows elsa to not only harness her powers more fully but also to connect with jack on a deeper level, creating a bond that is rooted in mutual understanding, trust, and a shared sense of purpose.

but what about the specific differences in features of their ice/snow/frost/powers?

for specific ice MAGIC features, patterns, habits, and geometrical dendrites (🤣 thanks calli), please note that @callimara will be dropping a DETAILED comparison analysis one day, so stay tuned!

in the meantime, you can see my quick takes in the woman in white, or in ch. 4 of more than you know. 

[dipperdesperado]

notes towards changing the world

i feel like the main way to change the world is to not think on a global scale. one of the coolest things about complex systems is how agents in the system, focusing on the local level and following simple rules while cooperating with other agents can create global behaviors. a vision of solarpunk could be the attempt at imagining and prefiguring a world that embraces complexity for the betterment of all of the agents in the system.

so, to change things, thankfully we don't have to figure out how to bring about worldwide upheaval. if we can change the local milieu, that can reverberate outward. this is not to say that it's easy, but it's possible. this is also not to say to never think globally. it's a dialogue between spheres of distance. you have to have a revolution internally to have a revolution interpersonally to have a revolution locally to have a revolution regionally and so on and so on.

now, we can finally talk about how to change things. the general (relatively nonlinear) phases of this process are analyzing and trying to understand the world, creating visions, goals, and values from that analysis, creating strategies to reach those goals, and enacting tactics birthed out of those strategies.

Analysis

Identify the social issue: figure out the bad thing. try to understand the bad thing using complexity theory/systems theory. in other words, understand what the system is, what are the agents/elements are within that system (people, institutions, environments, etc), where the resources flow, what feedback loops exist, and what the vulnerabilities are.

Set your goals: The goal is to promote systemic change that addresses the root causes of the social issue, rather than simply addressing individual symptoms or surface-level manifestations. The guiding principles may include holistic thinking and interdisciplinary collaboration.

Visions, Goals, and Values

Visions: think about what you want the world to look like. put on your utopian lenses. what are the dreams that you have for the community (and maybe even the world at large)? Try to stretch your imagination as far as you can.

Goals: based on your visions, what are some more concrete targets to aim for? for ex., if one of the aspects of your visions is a city that is in harmony with nature, what are the material changes that need to happen?

Values: what are the guiding lights that will inform how you reach your goals? This can be thought of as the ethical/philosophical foundation of your praxis. these would also be points of unity for other folks. some good ones to include in this would be solidarity, free association, and a militant anti-oppressive orientation.

Strategy

Universal goals: make some specific goals for your specific context. ex. “everyone can access healthy, culturally relevant, and dietarily conscious food.”

Understand where the community is: how is the community, on average, doing at reaching this goal?

Understand the population: figure out the population segments in the given community, and discover their “distance” from the goal. take not of those differences.

explore the system: look at and make visible the structures that support or impede each group or community from achieving the universal goal.

create bespoke responses: develop and implement targeted strategies for each group to reach the universal goal. using our food example, rich folks in a community might not need any help reaching this goal, while unhoused neighbors might be furthest from this goal. this allows us to create responses that help each group in the ways that benefit them the most.

dismantle the system: while providing an equitable response to the issue through your bespoke responses, work towards removing the root causes of the issue. equity is good, but we want to move toward the abolition of oppressive systems and enter a space of liberation.

Tactics

tactics are the actions that we take, informed by our strategy, which stems from our goals, visions, and values. to organize specific tactics, a useful mental model is to think of “encircling” your goal. essentially, we want to try to reach our goal using multiple tactics in parallel (or relative parallel), attacking issues from multiple angles. I think that it’s ideal to have as many tactics deployed as is reasonable, but I like the idea of 2-4 campaigns of tactics going at the same time. I also like these tactics to be across the spectrum of commitment, from very simple, low-lift, and “reformist”, to more high-lift and “radical” or “revolutionary”. So, while our goal is to destroy the rule of authority (and all of its associated ills), actions that directly do that are the most extreme, and most folks don't start off ready for that level of commitment. To build that capacity in practice, this strategy could look like:

One campaign starts by making appeals to authority and getting more radical from there (foot in the door). Some examples are basically all of the things that liberals say to make changes: calling representatives, signing petitions, writing letters, op-eds, case studies, and things like that. Realistically, if the goal is widespread change, these things won’t really be able to cut it. You can’t vote a revolution in. So, we can use the more liberal actions as a gateway into more revolutionary actions. We also HAVE TO make sure we’re transparent about this so that people retain their ability to freely choose how they engage. In this campaign, we’re marching towards more and more radical action.

One or Two campaigns that start with civil disobedience (foot in the face). Some tactics here could be boycotts, strikes, sit-ins, and the like. Similar to the above action, we march towards more radical stuff but start from a more antagonistic position.

One campaign that starts with more directly confronting authority (door in the face). This campaign would start at as far of a place that the people would want to go. This would escalate into more radical action from a very radical place.

The purpose of formatting our tactics in this way is to be fighting on multiple fronts in ways that makes the movement harder to clamp down on, while having folks move in a more radical direction.

Note that all of these tactics are informed by what comes before them. Like everything else, it is useful to think of this as a dialogue. We don’t want tactics with no conception of a strategy and such, and by doing our tactics, we should and can reframe our strategy.

[genericruleroftheflies]

Ditty Diego War Chant | Head (1968)

Analysis… kinda

I actually want to just praise it.

One think I really want to highlight is how well in my opinion the war chant early on frames such a nonlinear film. It’s let’s you know what you’re in for and CLEARLY states that this “nonsense” is on purpose. And purposeful.

And as someone who has studied film, I do think that giving the audience a little heads up on a nonlinear film is smart. And I think the chant does it effectively. I’m going to quote some lines I love. But sometimes the hardest thing about watching nonlinear film is that as the audience you are confused obviously but also unsure if the filmmakers meant to do it this way. War Chant clears that right up.

“We hope you like our story, although there isn’t one” Boom done. There. Mike just let you know enjoy this story that doesn’t exist. Early on in Head you are told flat out this isn’t a traditional story. In fact there’s no “story” at all.

“…and give it 1, 2, 3! / but it may come 3, 2, 1, 2 or jump from 9 to 5” here the chant tells you that the film or “story” is not going to be linear or told in order. It might jump around. So be ready.

“And when you see the end in sight the beginning may arrive!” I love this part it’s just so fun that the film tells you early on that it is going to be a circular “story”. The ending of the film is going to be the beginning of the film. He just told you and I’m pretty sure it’s shown as well on the little screen.

“For those who look for meanings in form as they do fact—” Mike calling out me here… but also I would maybe suggest that this line is saying looking at the form/structure of the film… but now I feel a little embarrassed lol. “—we might tell you one thing, but we’d only take it back” see this like I’m not totally sure how to interpret but it’s so fun I love it! I could guess that maybe it’s just saying the film might suggest one thing and then contradict itself. But also (and I’m being conspiratorial here) it could be about how anyone involved with the film might say it means one thing and then they might take it back later… which I think people have done.

“Not back like in a box back” is such fun set up/foreshadowing to how the monkees are going to be put back in the box a couple times throughout this film.

And then of course the reoccurring theme of the war chant is about how the Monkees are a manufactured band, they are denying that. This “band” was created to make money, so let’s have fun with our nonsense! Yay— *real life Vietnam gun shot footage*

I don’t feels this way, I actually feel the opposite, but I could see some film people saying it spoon feeds the film’s themes, messages, etc. Personally I think because it’s such a confusing film for some people letting them know the situation is nice. It works well imo.

[world-cinema-research]

The Green Knight (2021)

by Jacob Christopher

The movie I chose to rewatch for week one of class is The Green Knight (2021) directed by David Lowrey, a cinematic readaptation of the 14th century poem of the Arthurian tale Sir Gawain and the Green Knight. The story follows that of the nephew of King Arthur, Sir Gawain played by Dev Patel, and his quest for honor in order to please his lineage. Accepting the challenge of the mysterious Green Knight on Christmas day to strike him with a blow, on the condition that Gawain must seek him out a year later to receive an equal blow in return. The film explores themes of honor, destiny, and mortality as Gawain embarks on a perilous journey filled with encounters that test his character and courage. It's praised for its stunning visuals, atmospheric storytelling, and thought-provoking exploration of the human condition. The impact left on me was more so the curiosity left from the end of the film, left wondering what it was that captivated my attention. 

The indie film is a financial success considering the budget of 15 million compared to the grossed 20 million worldwide and 3 million in the home market. Arguments can be made looking at the box office opening night of just under 7 million isn't considered an impressive metric. However looking at the historical context, for an indie movie to be released during the covid-19 pandemic many restrictions for public safety were still implemented. To add inclination for people to view the film the production studio known as A24 acts as a seal of theatrical approval for audiences. Despite being based on a pre-established text, the obscurity of it’s age doesn’t exactly tempt the audience with it’s popularity. What differentiates The Green Knight from prior medieval films is the usage of it’s psychological horror and abstract cinematography to add a sense of surrealism to it’s story. A24 before releasing the film released a video on YouTube titled as An Oral History of the Green Knight to engage audiences as well as act as a guide for background and historical context for the film. The critical response for the film has remained the same with the film’s popularity peaking during it’s theater release.

Only adding to it’s strength, the unconventionality of the film drew in many to witness and marvel at the almost confusing film.Rather than focusing solely on chivalry and heroism, the film delves into themes of mortality, honor, and the nature of destiny, offering a more introspective take on the Arthurian legend. Combined with director David Lowery's visual storytelling, blending elements of fantasy and realism, creating a dreamlike atmosphere that sets it apart from typical historical dramas. Taking a non-linear approach to storytelling, often meandering through dream sequences and nonlinear timelines for a muddied lens of fantasy and realism it challenges that of conventional narrative structures. Instead embracing ambiguity and symbolism, leaving much more to be open to interpretation. The meaning of certain events and characters is left intentionally vague to invitie viewers to engage in deeper analysis. This movie has it all, etching itself into the A24 vault as arguably one of their most fascinating films. 

My first viewing of this film I was puzzled and amused by the creativity and storytelling capabilities expressed. I watched half of it, rewinded it, went to bed and watched the rest in the morning with my roommate with bowls of cereal in hand. By the ending scene I was left in awe of how well written it was, and when the credits had started rolling the two of us sat in silence for what felt like minutes. Before my rewatching of the film once more I had done more research on the intricaciesof the film and the Arthurian poem of Sir Gawian and the Green Knight. With one of the bigger questions of the purpose and symbolism of the Green Knight himself being answered by one of the commonly agreed on interpretaions. Being the Green Knight is an embodiment of Nature and the cycle of life itself, and the actions Gawian takes againt the Green Knight exposes his human nature and all of it’s blemishes. The poem is a much more cheery tale of bravery and the heroics of what is expected of a knight.

The quote I chose to embody the film is by Essel, a woman from the lower class of society as well as the lover of Gawain, asking Gawain before his venture to find the Green Knight and seek his fate, “Why Greatness? Why is goodness not enough?” It is within this dialogue we find the message of the film. What is honor if not an excuse to run from your own humanity?

[banananutmilk]

The Green Knight Film Essay(2021)

by Jacob Christopher

The movie I chose to rewatch for week one of class is The Green Knight (2021) directed by David Lowrey, a cinematic readaptation of the 14th century poem of the Arthurian tale Sir Gawain and the Green Knight. The story follows that of the nephew of King Arthur, Sir Gawain played by Dev Patel, and his quest for honor in order to please his lineage. Accepting the challenge of the mysterious Green Knight on Christmas day to strike him with a blow, on the condition that Gawain must seek him out a year later to receive an equal blow in return. The film explores themes of honor, destiny, and mortality as Gawain embarks on a perilous journey filled with encounters that test his character and courage. It's praised for its stunning visuals, atmospheric storytelling, and thought-provoking exploration of the human condition. The impact left on me was more so the curiosity left from the end of the film, left wondering what it was that captivated my attention. 

The indie film is a financial success considering the budget of 15 million compared to the grossed 20 million worldwide and 3 million in the home market. Arguments can be made looking at the box office opening night of just under 7 million isn't considered an impressive metric. However looking at the historical context, for an indie movie to be released during the covid-19 pandemic many restrictions for public safety were still implemented. To add inclination for people to view the film the production studio known as A24 acts as a seal of theatrical approval for audiences. Despite being based on a pre-established text, the obscurity of it’s age doesn’t exactly tempt the audience with it’s popularity. What differentiates The Green Knight from prior medieval films is the usage of it’s psychological horror and abstract cinematography to add a sense of surrealism to it’s story. A24 before releasing the film released a video on YouTube titled as An Oral History of the Green Knight to engage audiences as well as act as a guide for background and historical context for the film. The critical response for the film has remained the same with the film’s popularity peaking during it’s theater release.

Link to Trends

Only adding to it’s strength, the unconventionality of the film drew in many to witness and marvel at the almost confusing film. Rather than focusing solely on chivalry and heroism, the film delves into themes of mortality, honor, and the nature of destiny, offering a more introspective take on the Arthurian legend. Combined with director David Lowery's visual storytelling, blending elements of fantasy and realism, creating a dreamlike atmosphere that sets it apart from typical historical dramas. Taking a non-linear approach to storytelling, often meandering through dream sequences and nonlinear timelines for a muddied lens of fantasy and realism it challenges that of conventional narrative structures. Instead embracing ambiguity and symbolism, leaving much more to be open to interpretation. The meaning of certain events and characters is left intentionally vague to invitie viewers to engage in deeper analysis. This movie has it all, etching itself into the A24 vault as arguably one of their most fascinating films. 

My first viewing of this film I was puzzled and amused by the creativity and storytelling capabilities expressed. I watched half of it, rewinded it, went to bed and watched the rest in the morning with my roommate with bowls of cereal in hand. By the ending scene I was left in awe of how well written it was, and when the credits had started rolling the two of us sat in silence for what felt like minutes. Before my rewatching of the film once more I had done more research on the intricaciesof the film and the Arthurian poem of Sir Gawian and the Green Knight. With one of the bigger questions of the purpose and symbolism of the Green Knight himself being answered by one of the commonly agreed on interpretaions. Being the Green Knight is an embodiment of Nature and the cycle of life itself, and the actions Gawian takes againt the Green Knight exposes his human nature and all of it’s blemishes. The poem is a much more cheery tale of bravery and the heroics of what is expected of a knight.

The quote I chose to embody the film is by Essel, a woman from the lower class of society as well as the lover of Gawain, asking Gawain before his venture to find the Green Knight and seek his fate, “Why Greatness? Why is goodness not enough?” It is within this dialogue we find the message of the film. What is honor if not an excuse to run from your own humanity?

[and-then-there-were-n0ne]

Scholars have long known that youthful marriage is a strong predictor of divorce. For instance, someone who marries at 25 is over 50 percent less likely to get divorced than is someone who weds at age 20. Most youthful couples simply do not have the maturity, coping skills, and social support it takes to make marriage work. In the face of routine marital problems, teens and young twenty-somethings lack the wherewithal necessary for happy resolutions.

What about age at marriage past the twenties? Delaying marriage from the teens until the early twenties produces the largest declines in divorce risk, for totally understandable reasons: we’re all changing a lot more from year to year as teenagers than when we’re in our twenties or thirties. [...] Still, earlier scholarship found that the risk of divorce continued to decline past that point, albeit at a milder rate (as the figure using 1995 data shows below). And why wouldn’t it? Couples in their thirties are more mature and usually have a sounder economic foundation. Conversely, youthful marriage is correlated with lower educational attainment, which compounds divorce risk no matter how old you are.

But what was true for decades no longer seems to be the case. I analyzed data collected between 2006 and 2010 from the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG). The trick is to use statistical methods that permit nonlinear relationships to emerge (click here for more information on these methods). My data analysis shows that prior to age 32 or so, each additional year of age at marriage reduces the odds of divorce by 11 percent. However, after that the odds of divorce increase by 5 percent per year. The change in slopes is statistically significant. The graph below shows what the relationship between age at marriage and divorce looks like now.

This is a big change. To the best of my knowledge, it’s only recently that thirty-something marriage started to incur a higher divorce risk. It appears to be a trend that’s gradually developed over the past twenty years: a study based on 2002 data observed that the divorce risk for people who married in their thirties was flattening out, rather than continuing to decline through that decade of life as it previously had.

How can this change be explained? The first step to answering this question is to see if the pattern persists after adjusting for a variety of social and demographic differences between survey respondents. Indeed it does: thirty-something marriage continues to yield a higher divorce rate even after controlling for respondents’ sex, race, family structure of origin, age at the time of the survey, education, religious tradition, religious attendance, and sexual history, as well as the size of the metropolitan area that they live in. Note that the NSFG is a cross-sectional survey, which means that all respondent information was collected at a single point in time. Consequently the effects of education, religious attendance, and other impermanent demographic attributes on marital stability may not be causal. Results involving these variables should therefore be treated as provisional.

None of these variables seem to have much of an effect on the relationship between age at marriage and divorce risk. Additional tests revealed that the relation seems to function more or less the same for everyone: male or female, less or more educated, religious or irreligious, intact or nonintact family of origin, and limited versus extensive sexual history prior to marriage. For almost everyone, the late twenties seems to be the best time to tie the knot. [...]

My money is on a selection effect: the kinds of people who wait till their thirties to get married may be the kinds of people who aren’t predisposed toward doing well in their marriages. [...] More generally, perhaps people who marry later face a pool of potential spouses that has been winnowed down to exclude the individuals most predisposed to succeed at matrimony.

There are obvious strengths and weaknesses to this sort of explanation. [...] But we do know beyond a shadow of a doubt that people who marry in their thirties are now at greater risk of divorce than are people who wed in their late twenties. This is a new development. This finding changes the demographic landscape of divorce, and lends credence to scholars and pundits making the case for earlier marriage.

Note: Unadjusted estimates of divorce in NSFG in 1995 and 2006-2010.

[lairn]

Book 9/24: Pale Fire by Vladimir Nabokov Rating: 4/5

Pale Fire is framed as a poem written by the character, John Shade, and introduced and analyzed by the character, Dr. Kinbote. The poem, “Pale Fire,” is quite good and Kinbote is a self-obsessed and inadequate analyst more interested in telling his own story than examining the text. Reading this novel was a complicated experience. It took me over a month to finish, fighting through jet lag and final exams, but mostly fighting through the book itself.

From the first pages I knew I was going to struggle because the structure is a paradox of linear and wildly nonlinear. In conventional order, there is a forward to a poem, the poem, commentary, and an index. On the other hand, the author of the forward, Kinbote, recommends the reader skip the poem and go straight to the commentary, which itself is constantly imploring the reader to refer to other sections of the commentary, parts of the poem, and even the forward. The index is its own separate little maze pointing the reader from one entry to another.

I chose to read the book front-to-back, but still found myself jumping backwards to reread the poem’s cantos 3 or 4 times, and yes, even the forward at Kinbote’s pleading suggestion. By the time I finished I had a much clearer idea of the relationship Kinbote has to art, academia, and John Shade, but I still felt muddled and overwhelmed. There is a lot of vocabulary I was unfamiliar with and even more references to other works I had never heard of in both the poem and the analysis, but Kinbote does not properly research the poem, so I had to constantly second guess his statements and do my own research. I could never be sure if what Kinbote says is accurate, a lie, or an ignorant misstatement. I cannot even be sure the poem is presented as written by John Shade. On one level, the novel is about deception and misrepresentation, and I felt the wool pulled firmly over my eyes.

Basically, the book is exhausting but interesting. I was so relieved to be finished with it, but also immediately wished to buy a personal copy I could mark up with my own red-string-conspiracy-board-style notes.

[bedlessbug]

ploys within plots

crucially concerned with the theme of foreseeing the future.....author prophetically presents his series' basic concept - psychohistory, ecology.... what was only in the process of becoming dynamical systems analysis, the scientific field now popularly termed "chaos theory";.... mirrors... its narrative structure and its themes and motifs .... what can only in retrospect be seen... concept's dynamical systems model.

science can investigate only what it first imagines. this crucial visionaiy step is often taken by the artist not the scientist: that science follows a path art has already envisioned and mapped for the culture as a whole.

chaos theory model sees dune as a dynamical system that might be radically changed through minimal alteration.

chaos theory is the study of orderly patterns in turbulent, erratic or dynamical systems (PI)

Kynes: obsessed with transfomring dune by way of "man as a constructive ecological force". building a new landscape. Kynes thus: "views Dunes ecology from a chaos theory model, as a dynamical system that might be radically altered through a minimal change in a key variable affecting its interlocking feedback loops."

a dynamical system is fundamentally recursive rather than linear - like the reading process itself, like the perspectives of Dune.

Fractal means self-similar, repetition of detail at descending scales, patterns inside of patterns.

Chaos is the science of the global, nature of systems... the universal behavior of complexity…. The first chaos theorists… had an eye for pattern… a taste for randomness and complexity, for jagged edges and sudden leaps.. ..They feel that they are turning back... the analysis of systems in terms of their constituent parts… that they a whole (Gleik, 5). Paul, several of the Bene Gesserit, many of the Dun and Miles Teg are all Mentats. And Mentats too are "trained to sense patterns, to recognize systems and wholeness" MENTAT AS CHAOS THEORISTS. Every ruler has a mentat, indispensable to their reign. the human computer who translates natures cybernetics into intelligible strategy and forms. What do these forms, or schemes, look like????? how are they enacted????

Kynes says that: "laboratory evidence blinds us to a very simple fact, …that.. .we are dealing here with matters that originated and exist out-of-doors"

"There is in all things a pattern in the way sand trails along a ridge, in the branch cluster of the creosote bush or the pattern of its leaves" (Dune, 380); and it is just such irregular, "random," "jagged" patterns that choas theorist study

If paradox bothers you that betrays your deep desire for absolutes

the only constant in the real universe is change

but chaos does have predicatble characteristics PI QUOTE

the irregular fremen sand walk like the natural shifting of wind and sand are examples of order existing in the apperance of chaos in nature

"from chaos we must make our own order"..... The "Bene Gesserit Way" is to "create [relative stability] with your own belief' from "the essential, raw instability of our universe" (Children, 250-5....Thus, the Bene Gesserit theorize that "belief structure creates a filter through which chaos is sifted into order" IMPORTANT, PERHAPS IN INTRODUCTION

bifurcation - the division of something into two branches or parts.

like time travel, dune uses knowlege of possible futures to alter its course. MENTATS can "predict to some extent in terms of probablities"

"What of the harmonics inherent in the act of prophecy? Does the prohpet see the future or does he see a line of weakness, a fault or clevage that he may shatter with words or descions...?".....much like a mathematician might drastically alter a fractal image by minutely changing a variable in the nonlinear equation that generates it"

Irulan writes of Paul, "He tells us that a single obscure decision of prophecy, perhaps the choice of one word over another, could change the entire aspect of the future."

Water, wind, storm, sand metaphors example the chaotic currents in history and time."""

pauls vision of the future is in gaps, irulans description of a "man standing on a valley floor, whose view of the terrain is blocked by surrounding hills" WHAT DOES THE TERRAIN HAVE TO SAY ABOUT LANGUAGE HERE??? AS in Baudrillards SIMULACRA?? POTENTIALLY>>>>

Is language order which plasters itself upon the chaos of the terrain? Myth acts as a simulation, a place of reference which now precedes the territory itself. What is the PROLEPSIS of ARRAKIS? How do they believe in it before they arrive?

Order out of Chaos is the rule rather than the excpetion!!!! ^^^^^^ in terms of map and territory (briggs and peat)

[dataanxiety]

via FOCUS: Complexity and the failure of quantitative social science 

Is this just so much woo? The following is supposedly the wrong paradigm: 

the history of statistics in the social sciences is one of great achievement but also error; and the basis for both is the belief that disorganized complexity constitutes the major challenge to social scientific inquiry.

Disorganized complexity 

It seems more than adequately daunting, no? If the results make sense and the analysis is tractable, the conventional quantitative program in the social sciences is approached as follows: 

social reality is a form of disorganized complexity, which is best handled using the tools of statistics; 

the goal is to explain majority, aggregate behavior in terms of probability theory and the macroscopic laws of averages; 

to do so, one seeks to develop simple, variable-based linear models, in which variables are treated as ‘rigorously real’ measures of social reality; 

model-in-hand, the goal is to identify, measure, describe and (hopefully) control or manage how certain independent variables impact one or more dependent variables of concern; 

and, if done right, these models lead to reasonably linear explanations of why things happen the way they do; 

which, in turn, leads to relatively straightforward policy recommendations for what to do about them.

Organized complexity less tractable than disorganized complexity?

But no! Social reality is a form of organized complexity which is much more difficult!  In order to do social science one needs to study and discuss (through college coursework): 

philosophy and sociology of science, post-positivism and pragmatism, feminism and feminist methodology, pragmatism and anti-positivism, critical realism and neo-pragmatism, ecofeminism and systems theory, social constructionism and social constructivism, 2nd order cybernetics and post-structuralism, qualitative method and historiography, ethnography and deconstructionism, actor-network theory and postmodernism.

To grapple with the complicated modern world of complex organized complexity, scholars must contend with a “data-saturated world of social problems far beyond the pale of conventional quantitative social science”. 

A revolution in computational methods

Over the past 30 years, this revolution in method contains some of the most highly innovative tools and techniques ever created, from geospatial modeling and complex network analysis to dynamical systems theory and nonlinear statistical mechanics to multi-agent modeling and artificial neural nets to cellular automata and data mining to data visualization and case-based modeling.

Hmm, okay, I guess. 

the common view amongst complexity scholars is that social reality and the data used to examine it are best understood, methodologically speaking, in organized complex systems terms.  In other words, social reality and data are best seen as self-organizing, emergent, nonlinear, evolving, dynamic, network-based, interdependent, qualitative and non-reductive.

So how do social scientists learn how to do this?  Recall that the message is “statistics isn’t enough”. The recommendation: 

it is not so much that the social sciences would need to be proficient in calculus, computational analysis, and nonlinear statistical mechanics!  Hardly. Instead, an open learning environment would need to be created, where students could be introduced to new and innovative notions of complexity, critical thinking, data visualization and modeling, as well as the challenges of mixed-methods, interdisciplinary teamwork, global complexity, and big data!

I think that is what people who do PhD level work in sociology do now. Interdisciplinary team work and critical thinking is nothing new. 

Finally, we get to what sounds like one of those impossible, ridiculous job descriptions, where the candidate should know everything: 

...while the overwhelming majority of physicists, mathematicians and computational scientists are incredible technicians and methodologists, most are not very good social scientists.  In turn, the overwhelming majority of social scientists are not very good technicians or methodologists.  And, both sides are at fault for not extending their reach, and both are foolish for not doing so.

LOL

Find me a physicist or mathematician who is also a good social scientist!  There are a few, e.g. Andrew Gelman, PhD in statistics from Harvard, and Columbia University professor of sociology. And even he doesn’t have great intuition or common sense despite being ahead of the rest, and technically excellent, or so political scientists say. Academia isn’t going to turn out thousands or even hundreds of Andrew Gelmans regardless of curriculum changes. 

Nice, colorful chart, but my verdict is woo. I would be delighted to be corrected though.

[extremeloading11]

What Are the Key Benefits of Nonlinear Structural Analysis in Material Science?

Understanding how materials behave under stress requires more than just basic calculations. Engineers are now using Nonlinear Structural Analysis to explore how structures respond when pushed beyond their standard limits, helping create smarter and safer systems. From plastic deformation to geometric changes, this method helps capture reactions that traditional models often miss. Nonlinear Structural Analysis gives a closer look into failure points and supports better choices in material selection and design. This technique is especially useful in industries that rely on performance and safety, such as construction, aerospace, and automotive. Its use is helping shift the future of material science. Read the full blog for more information - https://extremeloading.hashnode.dev/what-are-the-key-benefits-of-nonlinear-structural-analysis-in-material-science

[renatoferreiradasilva]

Beyond the Black Swan: A Structural Typology for Understanding Risk

by Renato Ferreira da Silva

Synthesizing Complexity, Latency, and Disruption

The proposed tripartite typology — normative events, disruptive events, and emergent latent structures — offers a robust framework for analyzing risks across economics, geopolitics, and security. This model addresses gaps in Taleb’s “swan” metaphor by integrating complexity theory, systems analysis, and interdisciplinary epistemologies. Below, we contextualize this framework using insights from the provided search results and broader risk literature.

1. Limitations of the Swan Metaphor

Taleb’s Black Swan concept, while influential, struggles to capture nuanced risks like Grey Swans — events that are theoretically foreseeable but often overlooked due to cognitive biases, systemic complexity, or historical amnesia. For instance, sudden interest rate surges (e.g., 2022’s rapid global rate hikes) exemplify Grey Swans: their risk lies not in the absolute level (e.g., 5% yields) but in the abruptness of change relative to prior norms (e.g., transitioning from 1% to 5%). Similarly, latent risks like supply chain dependencies or misaligned financial incentives often escape traditional risk models, which focus on probability over systemic fragility.

2. The Tripartite Typology in Practice

(A) Normative Events These are recurring, predictable risks managed through classical models (e.g., monetary policy adjustments, electoral cycles). While they align with “White Swans,” their predictability can breed complacency. For example, leverage in financial systems is often treated as a normative risk, yet its quality (e.g., short-term vs. long-term debt structures) determines systemic fragility — a nuance overlooked in simplistic models.

(B) Disruptive Events Characterized by nonlinear impacts and low predictability, these mirror Black Swans but include partially foreseeablecrises. The COVID-19 pandemic, for instance, was a disruptive event amplified by latent structures like globalized supply chains and underprepared healthcare systems. Scenario analysis — simulating impacts rather than predicting events — has emerged as a critical tool here, enabling firms to test operational resilience against hypothetical shocks (e.g., supply chain breakdowns, cyberattacks).

© Emergent Latent Structures These are slow-building, systemic vulnerabilities that evade traditional risk frameworks. Examples include:

Technological dependencies: Overreliance on AI or unvetted digital infrastructure, which could collapse under cyberattacks or algorithmic failures.

Geopolitical asymmetries: Europe’s pre-2022 dependence on Russian gas exemplifies a latent structure that morphed into a disruptive crisis.

Financial complexity: Instruments like collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) before the 2008 crisis, which masked toxicity through layered complexity.

3. Interdisciplinary Applications

Economics: The 2008 crisis stemmed not just from subprime mortgages (a disruptive event) but from latent structures like deregulated derivatives markets and moral hazard in banking.

Geopolitics: Firms in developing nations along China’s Belt and Road Initiative face suppressed internationalization due to geopolitical risks (GPR), such as reduced investment freedom and legitimacy.

Security: The 2021 U.S. Capitol attack was preceded by latent signals (e.g., online radicalization), underscoring the need for intelligence systems to detect emergent threats in unstructured data.

4. Policy and Strategic Implications

To operationalize this typology, institutions must:

Map latent structures: Identify dependencies (e.g., energy, data flows) and stress-test them via scenario analysis.

Adopt antifragility: Build systems that gain from volatility, such as flexible labor models or decentralized supply chains.

Integrate behavioral data: Analyze non-quantifiable risks (e.g., cultural resistance to automation) that defy traditional models.

Foster interdisciplinary teams: Combine expertise in economics, technology, and geopolitics to decode intersecting risks.

5. Beyond Prediction: Toward Strategic Resilience

The swan metaphor’s focus on unpredictability obscures the actionable insights offered by latent structures. For example, Canada’s 2022 decision to halt inflation-linked bond issuance could signal broader debt management risks in indebted economies — a latent structure requiring preemptive analysis. Similarly, firms using scenario analysis to model price elasticity during crises (e.g., pandemic-driven cost surges) demonstrate how impact-focused planning can turn disruptions into opportunities.

Conclusion

This typology transcends metaphorical limitations by framing risk as a dynamic interplay of events and structures. By integrating complexity theory, historical analysis, and adaptive strategies, it equips policymakers and institutions to navigate polyphonic crises — not by predicting the future, but by illuminating the “silences of the present.”

References

Agamben, G. (2009). What is an apparatus? Stanford University Press. Beck, U. (1992). Risk society: Towards a new modernity. Sage Publications. Foucault, M. (1977). Discipline and punish: The birth of the prison. Pantheon Books. Lakatos, I., & Musgrave, A. (Eds.). (1970). Criticism and the growth of knowledge. Cambridge University Press. Morin, E. (2007). On complexity. Hampton Press. Taleb, N. N. (2001). Fooled by randomness: The hidden role of chance in life and in the markets. Random House. Taleb, N. N. (2007). The black swan: The impact of the highly improbable. Random House. Taleb, N. N. (2012). Antifragile: Things that gain from disorder. Random House. Schweller, R. L. (2017). The concept of Gray Swans in international relations. Foreign Policy Analysis, 13(2), 219–234. Sheffi, Y. (2007). The resilient enterprise: Overcoming vulnerability for competitive advantage. MIT Press. Roe, E., & Schulman, P. R. (2016). Reliability and risk: The challenge of managing interconnected infrastructures. Stanford University Press.

[nursingwriter]

Healthcare Leadership The author of this report has been asked to review and critique an article. The article relates to the general topic of choice, that being leadership of healthcare professionals. The points and parts of this response will include the general focus of the article, the conclusions of the author, a discussion about the report and the opinion of the author of this report when it comes to all of the above. The article chosen for this review and report is from the Oman Medical Journal and was authored by Abdulaziz Al-Sawai. The premise of the article is a question that perhaps many people ask out loud, that being where the paradigm and marketplace stands when it comes to the leadership of healthcare professionals. While there are many differing and valid perspectives when it comes to healthcare leadership, there are many valid viewpoints to consider and the viewpoint of Al-Sawai is certainly among them. Analysis Summary The author of the article makes the point that the leadership theory that surrounds healthcare is "dynamic" and that it changes over time. It is further pointed out that healthcare systems are "composed of numerous professional groups, departments and specialties with intricate, nonlinear interactions between them: the complexity of such systems is often unparalleled as a result of constraints relating to different disease areas, multidirectional goals and multidisciplinary staff. The author of the article then gets into the different types of leadership including transformational, collaborative, distributed, shared and so forth. There is also a focus on conflict management, ethics and the functional results of a given healthcare leadership structure. The points made in the article are not reaching or groundbreaking but they are very common and prescient at the same time. Examples would include that leadership is a shared thing that cannot (and should not) be controlled by a small cadre of people. There does need to be a locus of control among the top executives but it cannot be too constricted either (Al-Sawai, 2013). Critique The article overall is quite good. If there is one thing that it lacks, it is focus. The points made are all very good ones but there is a little too much being mentioned and covered and in such a short space that it does not allow for a decent drilling down on any given topic. For example, even if this article only focused on leadership styles and that was it, there was not nearly enough words dedicated to realistically cover what someone would need to learn about the subject. Even so, the points that were made were accurate, consistent with other research and yet admitted that the paradigm is evolving and shifting all of the time. They article also points to the fact that multiple leadership styles can and should be adapted to the healthcare leadership situation and that is a good idea as some people get bogged down with one style or another. Instead, it has to be recognized that different situations call for different leadership approaches and trying to use one at all times is just not going to work. Sometimes, a transformational leader needs to come in and motivate people. Other times, a leader needs to be more transactional and just get things done. When it comes to healthcare, it is important to learn about all of the important topics such as leadership styles, the evolving role of a nurse and how the Affordable Care Act has affected the nursing and healthcare leadership paradigms, just to name a few things (Al-Sawai, 2013). Conclusion The article by Al-Sawai was great in that it covered a lot of topics but what he said was rather high level and summary-based. For someone that would want to get into the nuts and bolts of each topic, other research studies or books by learned professionals would be much better. However, not everyone needs the fine details and this article could serve as a gateway to the topics that can and should be covered and it does a good job of covering all of the important topics. References Al-Sawai, A. (2013). Leadership of Healthcare Professionals: Where Do We Stand?. Oman Medical Journal, 28(4), 285-287. http://dx.doi.org/10.5001/omj.2013.79 Read the full article

[spendingtimewiththeboys]

The text you've shared is a highly fragmented, disjointed, and stream-of-consciousness collection of thoughts, reflections, and observations. The language fluctuates between raw emotion, dark humor, frustration, violence, existential questioning, and introspection. Here's an analysis that unpacks some of the key themes and techniques:

1. Themes of Alienation and Identity:

Throughout the piece, there’s a strong sense of disconnection from self and others. The speaker seems to struggle with feelings of detachment, whether it’s from the physical world ("I glued this room together in my mind"), from societal expectations, or from interpersonal relationships. The recurring lines and phrases (e.g., "I’m the dickhead who fed all of our company’s secrets into generative AI") reinforce a sense of self-loathing or dissatisfaction with personal choices.

There's also a frequent exploration of the idea of identity, particularly in relation to societal roles, violence, and expectations ("I own a lot of guns," "I WILL DIE IN THE SERVICE OF JAZZ EDUCATION"). The speaker appears to question what it means to be oneself in a world filled with conflicting pressures.

2. Violence and Destructive Tendencies:

Violence pervades many of the sections—both in explicit descriptions (e.g., threats of killing, references to shootings) and in the psychological violence the speaker seems to be inflicting on themselves. The repeated references to guns, the act of throwing things from an overpass, and the aggression towards others are vivid expressions of inner turmoil and anger.

The piece oscillates between violent impulses and moments of vulnerability or confusion, indicating a kind of internal conflict or crisis.

3. Existential and Psychological Struggles:

The speaker seems to be grappling with existential questions about purpose and meaning. There are moments of nihilism and contemplation about the futility of certain actions ("I’m too stupid," "books I’ve read or pretended to"), alongside a yearning for some form of clarity or redemption ("I want to break it, throw a brick...I'm angry, full of shit").

The references to not sleeping, feeling annoyed, and questioning the passage of time ("I can’t sleep lately, in my gut I’m annoyed") suggest a restless, unresolved inner state. These lines speak to a deep-seated anxiety or frustration, possibly with the self or the world.

4. Isolation and Disillusionment:

The speaker often expresses feelings of being alone, whether physically ("I’m beat, I’m beat, I’m beat, Again on the ocean floor") or emotionally ("You’re on my back again"). This isolation is not merely physical but seems to extend to their emotional state, where they struggle with how to connect with others.

Disillusionment with societal norms or institutions appears frequently in the text—whether it's the mention of "bowling alley owners" distancing themselves from a tragic event or the sarcasm around “generative AI” and “guns.” The cynicism suggests a disconnect between the speaker and conventional societal values.

5. Fragmentation and Nonlinear Structure:

The text is deeply fragmented, jumping from one thought or image to the next without clear transitions. This disjointed structure mirrors the speaker’s mental state—unorganized, fleeting, and often chaotic. The non-sequential, almost random nature of the writing may also suggest a disillusionment with linear storytelling or traditional ways of expressing thoughts.

There are also references to real-world events, such as traumatic brain injury or references to a shooting, which add a layer of realism and highlight the blending of personal inner turmoil with broader societal tragedies.

6. Language and Imagery:

The language is raw and visceral, often employing harsh imagery ("coarse, thick grey wool," "the land teems with bitter ghosts") and metaphors that suggest decay, rot, and violence. The text frequently uses jarring contrasts—such as violent imagery followed by self-deprecating humor or stark realizations—which create a sense of unease in the reader.

The recurring references to physical sensations, such as feeling tired, sick, or cold, also anchor the text in the body, reinforcing a materialistic sense of existence that’s often unpleasant or overwhelming.

7. Intertextuality and References to External Media:

Several sections reference external ideas, cultural products, or events (e.g., "The Silver Jews," "northern lights illuminate Chinese skies"). These allusions add layers of meaning, perhaps reflecting the speaker’s attempt to make sense of their experience through external narratives or aesthetics.

The blending of mundane and tragic elements (a bowling alley incident, a tragic historical reference to a grenade instructor, or even mundane objects like ketchup packets) reinforces the sense of absurdity in the speaker's worldview.

8. Ambiguity and Lack of Resolution:

Many of the phrases and ideas presented in the text leave things unsaid, offering a sense of ambiguity and uncertainty. This open-endedness invites multiple interpretations and mirrors the speaker’s own sense of confusion and lack of resolution. The frequent references to "nothingness," the lack of control over actions, and the unpredictable nature of human life contribute to an atmosphere of existential uncertainty.

Conclusion:

This text is a complex, fragmented exploration of existential angst, violence, identity, and alienation. It reads like an unfiltered stream of consciousness from a mind wrestling with societal disillusionment and inner turmoil. The lack of structure and linearity serves to emphasize the fractured, chaotic nature of the speaker’s thoughts and emotions, while the raw, visceral language underscores the intensity of their experiences. The overall effect is one of disorientation, frustration, and an underlying yearning for meaning in a seemingly indifferent world.