#nntaleb

[epicforwards]

"Difficulty is what wakes up the genius."

-- Nassim Nicholas Taleb

[tradmais]

Novas discussões sobre a desdolarização estão ignorando um ponto-chave, de acordo com Nassim Taleb, que acredita que o verdadeiro foco deve ser o ouro, e não as moedas ou os ativos digitais.Nassim Taleb é um conhecido autor, acadêmico e ex-trader, reconhecido principalmente por seu trabalho em análise de risco, probabilidade e incerteza. Ele ganhou destaque por meio de sua série de livros Incerto, que inclui “The Black Swan”, “Antifragile”, “Fooled by Randomness” e “Skin in the Game”.Em “The Black Swan”, Taleb introduziu o conceito de eventos cisne negro — eventos raros e imprevisíveis com consequências massivas que as pessoas frequentemente tentam racionalizar depois que acontecem. Suas ideias desafiam o pensamento convencional em economia, finanças e filosofia, particularmente em torno das limitações da previsão e da importância da robustez em sistemas.Taleb postou no X que, enquanto o mundo se concentra em acordos comerciais e moedas alternativas, o verdadeiro movimento é em direção ao ouro. Ele destacou que os bancos centrais, particularmente aqueles nas nações BRICS, estão cada vez mais armazenando suas reservas em ouro, que tem visto um aumento notável de 30% ano a ano.As pessoas não estão vendo a real "desdolarização" em andamento. Não é sobre acordos comerciais. As transações são rotuladas em USD, como moeda âncora, mas os bancos centrais (particularmente os BRICS) têm armazenado, ou seja, colocado suas reservas, em ouro. O ouro subiu cerca de 30% ano a ano.- Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) 11 de setembro de 2024 try window._mNHandle.queue.push(function () window._mNDetails.loadTag('497637413', '300x150', '497637413'); ); catch (error) try window._mNHandle.queue.push(function () window._mNDetails.loadTag('615355918', '728x90', '615355918'); ); catch (error) Em resposta à observação de Taleb, o Kitco News relatou que Luke Gromen, fundador da Forest for the Trees, destacou como essa mudança tem ocorrido silenciosamente na última década. Gromen destacou que o congelamento de ativos russos após a invasão da Ucrânia intensificou as preocupações sobre a posse de títulos do Tesouro dos EUA, o que acelerou a tendência em direção ao ouro. Como Kitco observa, essa mudança reflete o crescente desconforto entre os bancos centrais sobre a confiabilidade da dívida dos EUA como reserva de valor.O relatório Kitco também menciona que analistas como Angelo Giuliano ressaltaram ainda mais o ponto ao explicar que os países estão cada vez mais comprando ouro em vez de dívida dos EUA. Giuliano se referiu ao sistema do dólar americano como um “esquema Ponzi”, acrescentando que o ouro atingiu máximas históricas, marcando um desempenho anual de 30%. Ele enfatizou que este é apenas o começo da tendência em direção a reservas alternativas, com o ouro sendo o principal beneficiário.Kitco também cobriu projeções do World Gold Council, que revelou que 29% dos bancos centrais planejam aumentar suas participações em ouro nos próximos 12 meses. Espera-se que essa mudança para longe do dólar continue, com 62% dos entrevistados acreditando que a participação do dólar nas reservas totais cairá em cinco anos, em comparação com 55% em 2023.

Com a expectativa de que o Federal Reserve corte as taxas de juros na próxima semana, Kitco relatou que analistas, como Ewa Manthey do ING, acreditam que isso dará um impulso adicional ao ouro. Manthey espera que os preços do ouro atinjam a média de US$ 2.580 no quarto trimestre de 2024, com impulso ascendente contínuo em 2025.Imagem em destaque via Pixabay

[ailtrahq]

Prominent scholar and risk manager Nassim Nicholas Taleb, famous for his books "Black Swan," "Antifragile" and others, has taken to X social media app to again take a jab at the former CEO of the bankrupt FTX exchange Sam Bankman-Fried. Here's what Taleb accuses SBF of this time."People like SBF know a bit of statistics but don't understand processes"Taleb cited a tweet with a quote from a book by Michael Lewis "Going Infinite" that has just come out. The book tells the story of Sam Bankman-Fried, how his management led to the FTX collapse with investors and customers losing billions of U.S. dollars in crypto.In this quote, SBF criticizes William Shakespeare. SBF claimed basically that since at the end of the 16th century, according to statistics, there were probably maximum 10 million people who could read, the world's greatest writer could hardly be born at that time. He also claims that Shakespeare has many "failings."Taleb responded to that, stating that "the problem with pple like SBF is knowing a tiny bit of statistics to parrot abt it, but not understanding processes (that is, dynamics across time)." He also reminded his followers, just in case, that "Shakespeare has survived nearly half a millennium of filtering by time."Taleb finished his tweet, stating that the former crypto tycoon would have flunked his job interview.The problem with pple like SBF is knowing a tiny bit of statistics to parrot abt it, but not understanding processes (that is, dynamics across time). Shakespeare has survived nearly half a millennium of filtering by time.To Jane Street: He would have flunked my job interview. https://t.co/igQqqf9nPB— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) October 6, 2023 The renowned author than also agreed with a comment made by X user Constantin Gurdgiev, who likened SBF to Bitcoin advocates, basically leveling SBF (who failed to understand Shakespeare and saw his FTX exchange crash, going to prison for defrauding investors) with the rest of the Bitcoin community.The X user wrote: "Gives one a lot of comfort to know these folks are into 'mathematically unbreakable' currency... when their statistical/probabilistic and logical skills literally topped at Statistics 305." To that Taleb's response was "101."Taleb's and Kiyosaki's views on Bitcoin and gold clashRecently, Taleb posted a bit of criticism about the view of the renowned financial guru, author of "Rich Dad, Poor Dad" Robert Kiyosaki about USD and gold. Kiyosaki has been constantly (since as early as 2020 actually) tweeting that he expects USD to crash, gold and silver to surge and markets to crash. Kiyosaki believes that USD has now become worthless since over the past few years, the Fed Reserve has printed trillions of dollars out of thin air to support the economy and inject cash in it.Taleb argues with that, stating that USD has been pretty stable against gold and silver over the past 50 years, in particular during the hard times of the U.S. economy in 1979-1981. Besides, the gurus have totally opposite opinions regarding the world's leading cryptocurrency. While Kiyosaki recommends everyone to buy Bitcoin (gold and silver too, believing that all three are safe haven assets), Taleb keeps criticizing BTC, calling it a "destined to die fad" and "tumor.

[yanotse]

(vía Brian Stoffel a X: "You shouldn't even try to understand this without reading @nntaleb's books. But if you've read them (at least twice apiece) and need a refresher -- this helps https://t.co/PlkRoGlqxO" / X)

[nosce]

Nassim Nicholas Taleb por toda la escuadra. ¿Cómo ser libre?

    You become free when there is no distinction between journey and destination.#BedofProcrustes, 3rd Ed. — Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) June 7, 2021

[rhianna]

Suckers try to win arguments, nonsuckers try to win.

@nntaleb's seminal book on risk and probability: Antifragile. Things that Gain from Disaster.

[ennovance]

Stock, Bond and #Crypto Investors Bet #Fed Is Bluffing on #InterestRates

https://www.wsj.com/articles/stock-bond-and-crypto-investors-call-feds-bluff-on-interest-rates-11675314448

🔔 #CentralBanks Should Stick to 'Higher for Longer' Interest Rate @IMFNews

https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2023-02-02/central-banks-should-stick-to-higher-for-longer-interest-rate-approach-imf

🔉Higher interest rates will burst asset bubbles @nntaleb

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-31/black-swan-s-taleb-warns-disneyland-is-over-for-investor #riskarb #investor #assetmanagement #privateequity #investor #ennovance #

Www.ennovance.com

[iampjr]

@nntaleb Stupidity compounds?

@nntaleb Stupidity compounds? — Patrick Rooney (@patrickrooney) Jan 30, 2023 https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js from Twitter https://twitter.com/patrickrooney

[zzkt]

For those in quarantine (self-imposed or involuntary), a though problem by @SrinivasR1729 pic.twitter.com/dMOcjFwhmJ

— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) March 5, 2020

(via http://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1235534576518389760)

[bigphil1983-blog]

You only live once folks #risk #iso #riskmanagement #i #motivation #money #riskassessment #success #entrepreneur #safety #training #security #cybersecurity #probability #love #business #bedofprocrustes #quote #fooledbyrandomness #nntaleb #antifragile #nassimnicholastaleb #nassimtaleb #randomness #blackswan #modernstoic #quoteoflife #skininthegame #stoics #quotes (at Northern Ireland) https://www.instagram.com/p/B8yGZ5Jhy9H/?igshid=10xlcv2ovapm0

[utilitymonstermash]

On one hand I agree with Taleb’s general point that far too many of our experts are detached from the ground truth with little incentive to realign. On the other hand, my grandmother was afraid of touching doorknobs with her bare hands, even in her own home. 

[makemeacyborg]

Another version of Extreme Value Theory https://t.co/SRWf0LFPgc – http://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1250390866616897537 – @nntaleb

[ailtrahq]

“Black Swan” author Nassim Nicholas Taleb unleashed a barrage of criticism directed at Bitcoin, particularly targeting its commonly touted advantage: a finite supply of 21 million coins. Taleb’s comments have created a stir within the cryptocurrency community and prompted a closer examination of Bitcoin’s intrinsic value. On the social media platform X, Taleb minced no words, lambasting what he termed “bitdiots” – individuals who believe that the mere scarcity of an asset automatically makes it a sound investment.  According to Taleb, the fundamental confusion lies in equating “necessary” with “sufficient.” In his view, there are countless items with restricted supplies that hold little to no value in the market. He humorously pointed out examples such as “pebbles from Skorpios, underwear worn by Churchill, books owned by Cary Grant” to illustrate his point. The idea by #bitdiots that something Convex (antifragile) must be a good investment BECAUSE of limited supply is confused: NECESSARY ≠ SUFFICIENT. Near Infinite # of things in limited supply: pebbles from Skorpios, underwear worn by Churchill, books owned by Cary Grant… — Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) September 13, 2023 Taleb’s perspective is a departure from his earlier stance as a Bitcoin supporter. He was initially intrigued by Bitcoin during the global financial crisis and the “WhatsApp Revolution” in his home country, Lebanon. However, over time, Taleb’s enthusiasm waned, leading him to view Bitcoin as neither a safe haven nor a viable asset. Bitcoin: Significance Of Limited Supply Bitcoin’s limited supply and digital scarcity have led many to consider it as a potential store of value, similar to gold. Some investors and institutions view it as a “digital gold” that can preserve wealth over time. A store of value is an asset that can retain its purchasing power over extended periods. Bitcoin’s limited supply and decentralized nature appeal to those who seek an alternative to traditional stores of value, especially in times of economic uncertainty. Bitcoin halfway to the key $27K region. Chart: TradingView.com Market Realities: Taleb’s Unwavering Criticism This isn’t the first time Taleb has criticized the cryptocurrency market. Earlier this week, he decried attempts to artificially bolster market prices, stating, “You may artificially prop up the price; you may paint the tape by coordinated manipulation. But in the end, the market is a market, an idiot is an idiot, & youth, inexperience, & ignorance are not virtues.” Bitcoin pple, there is an old saying “nobody is bigger than the market”. You may artificially prop up the price; you may paint the tape by coordinated manipulation. But in fine the market is a market, an idiot is an idiot, & youth, inexperience, & ignorance are not virtues. — Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) September 11, 2023 Taleb has consistently referred to Bitcoin as “a magnet for idiots” and likened the cryptocurrency market to a “tumor.” He prophesied that it would either “kill the host or self-destroy.” These searing criticisms underscore his belief that Bitcoin’s allure is driven more by speculation and hype than any inherent value. As the cryptocurrency community grapples with Taleb’s unorthodox perspective, it’s clear that the debate surrounding Bitcoin’s value proposition continues to evolve. The author’s critique serves as a stark reminder that the cryptocurrency landscape is far from settled, with passionate proponents and critics offering contrasting viewpoints on its future trajectory. Norvan Reports Source

[azspot]

I do not need a mask if everyone else is wearing one.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

[spiritualdirections]

As I talk to MIT science types off the record, they admit that there's a lot of bad science out there, and for much of the reason in this comic strip: producing useless science is easier than establishing causality. Especially in any discipline that studies people in uncontrolled environments (like real life)

This just reinforces the point that I've made before, which is that science is a human activity, and therefore subject to human error, sin, pride, and other foibles.

That's not anti-science, but it's anti-scientism, the idea that 'what scientists say' = truth & rationality. (Scientists who are atheists tend to adhere to scientism, despite all evidence it is false.)

[rhianna]

For Mother Nature, opinions and predictions don’t count; surviving is what matters.

@nntaleb's seminal book on risk and probability: Antifragile. Things that Gain from Disaster.