#moody: g7

[parcequecestnotreprojeeeet]

In a few of the pictures from the G7, Emmanuel looks moody. Everyone is wavin in one and he’s just standing there. 🧍‍♂️

Correction: he’s not just standing there. He’s standing there with his hand on his pocket looking almighty sexy 😌 And probably thinking “waving? But are you guys 5 years old or something?”

[xtruss]

©Getty Images/Peter Dazeley

How Russia Sanctions Sparked Global Revolt Against US Dollar

An increasing number of nations have been shunning the greenback in trade settlements

— 11 June, 2023 | RT | World News

The number of international agreements aimed at abandoning the US dollar in trade has been growing lately, signaling a global de-dollarization push in light of Washington’s aggressive foreign policy. RT explores the reverse side of the US sanctions policy and whether it threatens the hegemony of the dollar.

Why Is The US Weaponizing The Dollar?

Washington has been using the dollar’s dominance as a tool to preserve its global economic and geopolitical superiority while imposing numerous financial restrictions on countries which it perceives as violating US national interests.

What Underlies Those Actions?

The US accounts for some 20% of global economic output, but more than a half of world currency reserves are in dollars, and the bulk of cross-border transactions are carried out with the use of the currency. This helps the greenback maintain its leading position among the world’s reserve currencies.

Is Dollar Dominance Under Threat?

Economists, including US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, have been warning that unilateral sanctions imposed by Washington on nations across the globe will sooner or later undermine the hegemony of its currency. The managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Kristalina Georgieva, has also said that the dollar is gradually losing its top status. The warnings come in the wake of a multi-decade gradual decline in the dollar’s share of global central bank reserves. International rating agency Moody’s stated recently that deepening geopolitical tensions are among the issues that could threaten the greenback’s dominance. It added, however, that the currency’s role would persist for decades despite the challenges.

Are There Any Viable Alternatives?

Immediate replacement of the dollar is not likely, most economists believe. However, the Chinese yuan is often mentioned as the dollar’s major rival due to its growing share in international trade settlements, along with the expansion of the Chinese economy. At the same time, economists note the lack of transparency in China’s financial system and the fact that the yuan is not fully convertible. The Indian rupee has also been named as a contender. As for the euro and the Japanese yen, experts have raised doubts on their long-term future and stability due to economic issues in the EU and in Japan.

Could Sanctions On Russia Backfire On Dollar?

The unprecedented US-led sanctions freezing Moscow’s ability to use half of its reserves, as well as limiting the ability of Russian banks to conduct transactions via the SWIFT messaging system could have a boomerang effect, some analysts say. According to them, many countries, especially those in the crosshairs of restrictive US measures, have raised concerns that those measures could be used against them in the future and could impact the functioning of their economies.

Could BRICS Challenge The US Currency?

The status of the US dollar as the global kingpin could be challenged in time and under certain circumstances by the BRICS group of emerging countries, according to some experts, including the former chairman of Goldman Sachs, Jim O’Neill. The economic bloc, comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, has already outpaced the G7 in economic growth. Their push towards trade in national currencies and efforts to establish a joint payment network to cut reliance on the Western financial system, and particularly on the dollar, have been gaining traction.

What Happens If The Dollar Loses Its Reserve Status?

The dollar’s current status allows the US to run large deficits in terms of both international trade and government spending. Losing it could result in a subsequent decline in demand for the currency and a possible depreciation of its value which would require significant belt-tightening by Washington. Less access to capital, higher borrowing costs and lower stock market values could be among the side effects to threaten the US economy in that scenario.

[simprising]

traits: music lover, perfectionist 

[mariacallous]

The chaotic emergence of Rishi Sunak as Britain’s new prime minister signals the end not of Brexit but of Brexitism – the ideology of delusions about Britain’s ability to go it alone that culminated in the world-beating farce of Liz Truss’s short-lived government.

Trussonomics took the logic of Brexitism to an absurd extreme, with predictable results. Over the past eight years, under this Conservative party, Britain has descended from the pragmatic Eurosceptism of David Cameron to the medium-soft Brexit proposed by Theresa May, to the hard Brexit of Boris Johnson, and thence to the fantasy Brexit of Truss. The Brexit revolution has followed a familiar pattern, except that whereas traditionally the “revolution devouring its children” has involved radicalisation towards the left (Girondins to Jacobins in the French revolution, Mensheviks to Bolsheviks in the Russian revolution), here it has been radicalisation towards the right.

“We set out a vision for a low-tax, high-growth economy that would take advantage of the freedoms of Brexit,” Truss said in her resignation statement. This vision was a delusion: slash taxes, make a bonfire of regulations, incentivise the rich and somehow, miraculously, Britain will be back to the magnificent dynamism of the 19th century. The rest of the world should believe this because we believe it. Instead, a journey that began with the slogan “take back control” ended with the most spectacular loss of control.

Reality has caught up with the Brexitists and the British public is beginning to catch up with reality. If there were a general election tomorrow, and people voted as they currently tell the pollsters, the Tories would be virtually wiped out. Even more tellingly, the residual belief in Brexit among those who voted for it, which held up for many years, seems to have snapped. In a recent YouGov poll, only 34% of those asked said Britain was right to leave the EU, while 54% said it was wrong.

Of course, not all Britain’s economic woes are due to Brexit. Even before the 2016 vote, the country had a chronic productivity problem, excessive reliance on the financial sector and a major deficit in training and skills. But as the Covid pandemic effect fades, we can see the Brexit effect more clearly. On many indicators, such as business investment and trade recovery after Covid, the UK economy has done worse than any other in the G7. The number of small companies with cross-channel relationships has fallen by about a third. On official projections, the country will lose about 4% of its GDP as a result of Brexit. The rating agencies Moody’s and S&P have both reduced the UK’s economic outlook from stable to negative. Yes, it’s the Brexit, stupid.

Sunak is anything but a convinced European. The axis of his world is Silicon Valley-London-Mumbai not London-Paris-Berlin. In 2016, he was a strong Brexiter. But if he ever shared some of the delusions of Brexitism, he has surely lost them by now. As he demonstrated in his Conservative party leadership contest with Truss this summer, he is a realist, putting solid public finances and market credibility first – as did Margaret Thatcher. And realism demands that, in extraordinarily challenging economic circumstances, you have to lower barriers to doing business with your largest single market (the EU), not further increase them.

There will be two immediate tests. One is well known: the Northern Ireland protocol. This is not only a difficult issue in itself, the stalemate over Northern Ireland is also blocking progress on other fronts, such as Britain re-entering the Horizon programme for scientific cooperation. The second test has been less widely noticed. Under the May government, all existing EU regulations were retained in British law unless individual regulations were explicitly replaced by new national ones. Under the Truss fantasy, a bill has been introduced that will make a bonfire of all existing EU-origin regulations by the end of 2023. Departments will have to make a special case for retaining each one of more than 2,400 regulations or replacing them individually with new national rules. If Sunak is serious about concentrating on what really matters for the British economy, he will throw out this crazy bill and start again.

Economically competent and realistic Sunak himself may be, but he will be governing with a chronically divided party at his back. The ideologues of Brexitism are still there in strength. In the name of party unity he will probably have to take some of them into his cabinet. If British democracy worked like most other major western democracies, the country would now have either a general election or a “constructive vote of no confidence”, bringing other parties into power. But it doesn’t. The Tories still have a large majority in parliament. Since on current polling most Conservative MPs would lose their seats in an election, the turkeys are unlikely to vote for Christmas. Yet such is the anger and dissension inside the parliamentary party, and so serious is the economic crisis, that Britain may yet tumble into a general election before 2024.

Whenever it comes, the British electorate will almost certainly, in traditional fashion, “kick the bastards out” – “bastards” here being an entirely non-partisan term – and elect a government of the moderate centre-left. The Labour leader, Keir Starmer, is being excessively cautious on Europe, for fear of failing to win back northern English voters who switched to supporting Johnson so as to “get Brexit done”. He keeps parroting “make Brexit work” – a terrible slogan, which implies that the only thing wrong with Brexit is that it hasn’t been made to work properly. As public opinion is clearly shifting, he should start by changing it to “make Britain work”. (In spite of Brexit, that is.)

Nobody knows what will happen tomorrow. A day in British politics is currently a long time. But the direction of travel is clear. Britain has at last begun its long, painful journey back from the delusions of Brexitism.

[msommers]

A16 A19 G3 G7 for spencer and/or lucinda

thank you nancy!!! :D went for both of them because i’m simple and can’t ever shut up // big ol' honkin oc question list

A16. Does your OC have to go through their own trials to learn a lesson, or do they listen and learn from observation and lecture? I.e., does your OC listen when someone tries to tell them the importance of budgeting, or do they have to go experience what happens if you don’t budget first?

SPENCER — i think it might depend on who exactly is trying to give her advice?? there are certain people that spencer trusts and would accept advice from (even if begrudgingly because it ruins her plans), but otherwise she for Sure goes through it herself and learns that way. she’s the “stealth into the creepy former cultists abandoned mansion first, ask questions later” type. if she puts pieces together or notices something in the moment, she’s fucking Going. she’s off to the races. sometimes it works out, other times she’s in for a tough lesson and has to reconsider her impulsive plans that could have had their bad endings avoided if she had just taken an extra second to think or asked for someone else’s opinion.

LUCINDA — leans pretty heavily towards the side of heeding people’s advice, though given that she’s on the younger side and sometimes has extra knowledge granted to her through her medium abilities she isn’t fully immune to “mm. perhaps i could do this better” tbh. lucinda is a person that holds a lot of respect for others and is hyper aware that everybody has their own experiences/history, whether they be obvious to everybody or things that no one could have expected from them, and it’s because of that belief that she’ll genuinely take into consideration or straight up immediately agree with somebody if they’re trying to pass on a lesson to her.

A19. What instantly irritates them or puts them in a bad mood?

SPENCER — people dismissing her ideas/theories without hearing her out, the ignoring or throwing out of evidence, really loud music (probably the more,,in your face stuff. the scream metal or curse-riddled rap that makes it hard for her to think), know-it-alls getting uppity (pretty ironic), when she has spent over an hour telling herself that she’ll go get that snack from the kitchen After she finishes up her current work and then she gets there and it’s fucking GONE. a lot more stuff probably

LUCINDA — god she’s such a,,,,not easily irritated or moody type, this is rough. i’d say she can get pretty riled up if somebody is adamantly refusing to believe something even though they’ve been given evidence aplenty, as she’s gone almost her entirely life with countless people doubting her claims or straight up calling her cruel/rude things for speaking what she sees and experiences. actually there are probably Numerous things from her siblings that can get to her because that’s what happens when you spend two decades in the same house with siblings that are on such a different page than you that they might as well be in another book entirely.

G3. Does your OC find their family supportive? If not, what would be an example why not?

SPENCER — the goddamn betrayal of sending this prompt. when i know not a single thing about her family. unreal. i imagine that she probably has a pretty supportive family?? i don’t know, actually. i’ll have to leave this one kinda blank and use it as a reminder to work out her family situation soon

LUCINDA — no! not really!! i mean, financially and whatnot, yeah. she never has to want for anything, she can spend as much as she wants, she has a gigantic roof over her head and she’s never once been threatened to be kicked out, etc etc. but her family doesn’t support “her whole medium thing” and has tried to get her off of that train through many means, and eventually reached a point of being bitter about it or simply ignoring whenever she brought it up. they Probably don’t approve of all of her friends, so that’s another mark. she might have one or two siblings who are kind to her but i think overall lucinda feels very isolated from the family, she doesn’t feel their support most of the time and often feels like a ghost in her own home.

G7. Do they have any childhood memories they’d rather forget or be less affected by?

SPENCER — i don’t have a solid idea in mind for it yet, but it’s basically an Essential for somebody in her type of genre to have a moment in her past of running into the spooky thing she later gets tangled up in, so it’ll likely be that memory for her. i think it’ll probably be some sort of big scare that turned into a fear of hers that will later come up in her story. if we stick with the whole Big Plot Point of hers being connected to the dream-eaters campaign, then it’ll have a 90% chance to be something about spiders and/or recurring dreams/nightmares.

LUCINDA — yeah literally every single time one of her family members called her crazy or delusional when they thought she couldn’t hear them, that’d be Fantastic to not be so affected by. i don’t think it’s a constant negative weight on her shoulders, but if lucinda starts to feel down then she’d probably spiral right back to all of those moments and feel even worse.

[mostlysignssomeportents]

Signs that China's real-estate bubble will burst and take the economy with it

China's real-estate bubble is the largest in human history, and despite years of warning signs, it has grown and grown, spilling over into the rest of the world.

It's hard to overstate just how crazy China's real-estate market is: 25% of the country's GDP comes from construction, and 80% of the nation's wealth is in domestic property holdings. That's $65T, nearly double the size of the economies of every G7 nation combined.

The market has been kept afloat through China's massive "shadow banking" system, itself such a systemic risk that the Chinese government has been forced to crack down on it. Now, China's massive, blue-chip property developers have had their debt downrated to CCC and are struggling to issue new bonds -- Moody's rates the debt of 51 out of 61 Chinese property companies as "junk."

China has 65 million vacant residences, but properties remain stubbornly high, even in "tier-two" cities like Jinan, where a 1000sqft apartment costs RMB2M, while a worker may only earn RMB6,000/month.

This has tanked sales volume (down 44% year-on-year in the first week of 2019), but developers are not able to lower their prices in the face of popular uprisings from people who have overleveraged themselves to buy into the tier-one city markets. In one case, a cut to the price of unsold units sent Shanghainese property owners into the streets chanting and holding up signs reading "Give us our hard-earned blood-and-sweat money back!"

The nation is staggering under massive real-estate debt, $3.4 trillion worth of it, and 47.1% of that is tied up in vacant properties, and the people who borrowed that money are not receiving rental income, nor are they living in those properties. The banks that lent that money could face a massive wave of defaults.

Renmin University professor Xiang Songzuo, has called this a "Minsky moment," a phenomenon coined by Hyman Minsky to describe how an asset class can rise steadily in value before suddenly collapsing.

https://boingboing.net/2019/02/16/systemic-risk-2.html

[bestinfo]

Η Ε.Ε. κινδυνεύει να βιώσει έναν άνευ προηγουμένου εφιαλτικό χειμώνα

Το σενάριο ενός σκληρού χειμώνα, με οξεία απειλή ύφεσης και ενεργειακών lockdowns, μπαίνει πια βίαια στο τραπέζι της Ε.Ε., καθώς η Μόσχα σφίγγει σταθερά τις στρόφιγγες του αερίου και οι διεθνείς τράπεζες κρούουν συναγερμό νέας κρίσης.

Η αγωνία μιας, άνευ ιστορικού προηγουμένου, ενεργειακής κρίσης κυριάρχησε στη σύνοδο κορυφής της Ε.Ε., με τις ευρωπαϊκές κυβερνήσεις να φοβούνται πλέον πλήρη διακοπή των ροών του ρωσικού φυσικού αερίου, όπως προειδοποίησε και ο Έλληνας πρωθυπουρ��ός Κυριάκος Μητσοτάκης. Πρόκειται για το χειρότερο δυνατό σενάριο - ένα σενάριο, όμως, που δείχνει όλο και πιο κοντινό, οδηγεί σε εκτόξευση το ενεργειακό κόστος και, όπως επισημαίνει το Bloomberg, ναρκοθετεί τα θεμέλια της ευρωπαϊκής οικονομίας.

Ήδη 12 χώρες της Ε.Ε. αντιμετωπίζουν κάθετη μείωση των ρωσικών ροών αερίου και έχουν θέσει σε εφαρμογή έκτακτα σχέδια ενεργειακής ασφάλειας, ενώ η Γερμανία έχει ανεβάσει το επίπεδο συναγερμού στην κλίμακα 2, προειδοποιώντας για κίνδυνο κατάρρευσης των ενεργειακών αγορών σε μια κρίση αντίστοιχη με εκείνη της Lehman Brothers.

Το τοξικό μίγμα ενεργειακής κρίσης, πληθωρισμού-ρεκόρ και επιθετικών αυξήσεων επιτοκίων από τις κεντρικές τράπεζες εκτινάσσει και τις προβλέψεις των διεθνών επενδυτικών τραπεζών για νέα ύφεση, τόσο στην Ευρώπη όσο και στις ΗΠΑ. Κορυφαίοι οικονομολόγοι, εν όψει και της συνόδου κορυφής της G7 το Σαββατοκύριακο, προειδοποιούν μέσω των Financial Times ότι ο κίνδυνος για ύφεση και στις δύο πλευρές του Ατλαντικού το 2023 έχει αυξηθεί κατακόρυφα.

«Το ισοζύγιο έχει πλέον γείρει υπέρ της οικονομικής συρρίκνωσης το επόμενο έτος στις ΗΠΑ και στην Ευρώπη» λέει ο επικεφαλής αναλυτής της Berenberg Bank, Χόλγκερ Σμίντινγκ, ενώ η Goldman Sachs διπλασίασε τις πιθανότητες ύφεσης στις ΗΠΑ από το 15% στο 30%.

Στο 40% ανεβάζει το επίπεδο κινδύνου για τις ΗΠΑ ο Μαρκ Ζάντι της Moody's Analytics, προσθέτοντας ότι η Ευρώπη είναι ακόμη πιο ευάλωτη. Υψηλότερους κινδύνους στην Ευρώπη βλέπει και ο Νιλ Σίρινγκ, της Capital Economics. Την πιθανότητα ύφεσης στην Ευρωζώνη το 2023 αναγνώρισε ανοιχτά χθες και ο αντιπρόεδρος της ΕΚΤ Λούις ντε Γκίντος.

Την επιδείνωση των οικονομικών προοπτικών επιβεβαιώνει και η κάμψη του δείκτη επιχειρηματικού κλίματος του ινστιτούτου Ifo τον Ιούνιο στη Γερμανία, ενώ την ίδια ώρα η Bank of America προειδοποιεί ότι η απαισιοδοξία μεταξύ των επενδυτών έχει χτυπήσει ήδη «κόκκινο». Σύμφωνα με την τελευταία ανάλυση της BofA, η επενδυτική απαισιοδοξία έπιασε «πάτο», ενεργοποιώντας το contrarian σήμα αγορών. Όπως επισημαίνει η αμερικανική τράπεζα, το 88% των χρηματιστηριακών δεικτών κινούνται κάτω από τον μέσο όρο 200 και 50 ημερών.

Πιο αισιόδοξο τόνο, πάντως, επιχείρησε να δώσει ο επικεφαλής του Eurogroup Πασκάλ Ντόνοχιου, εκτιμώντας ότι υπάρχουν ακόμη περιθώρια να αποφευχθεί η ύφεση στην Ευρωζώνη.

Μια συντονισμένη δημοσιονομική προσέγγιση για το 2023 σημαίνει ότι μπορεί να «δημιουργήσει άλλες πηγές οικονομικής δυναμικής για να μας βοηθήσει να αντισταθμίσουμε ορισμένες από τις προκλήσεις που τώρα γνωρίζουμε ότι έρχονται», δήλωσε στην τηλεόραση του Bloomberg.

Πηγή άρθρου: Η Ε.Ε. κινδυνεύει να βιώσει έναν άνευ προηγουμένου εφιαλτικό χειμώνα

[dermontag]

Kreditwürdigkeit gesenkt Moody's stuft Ukraine weiter herab 21.05.2022, 03:57 Uhr Im März drückt die Ratingagentur Moody's die Kreditwürdigkeit der Ukraine nach unten. Angesichts des andauernden Krieges folgt eine erneute Herabstufung auf Caa3 - und weitere könnten folgen. Demnach besteht die Gefahr, dass sich die Staatsverschuldung "als mittelfristig untragbar" erweist. Die US-Ratingagentur Moody's hat die Kreditwürdigkeit der Ukraine angesichts des russischen Angriffskriegs gegen das Land erneut herabgestuft. Das Herabsenken um eine Stufe auf Caa3 versah Moody's mit einem negativen Ausblick - weitere Abstufungen könnten also folgen. Anfang März hatte Moody's die Kreditwürdigkeit der Ukraine bereits um zwei Stufen von B3 auf Caa2 gesenkt. Als Grund für die erneute Herabstufung gab die Ratingagentur "einen länger währenden militärischen Konflikt, als Moody's anfänglich erwartet hatte", an. Dies erhöhe das Risiko einer Restrukturierung der ukrainischen Schulden und von Verlusten für Gläubiger in der Privatwirtschaft. Trotz umfangreicher finanzieller Unterstützung durch die internationale Gemeinschaft bestehe die Gefahr, dass sich der deutliche Anstieg der ukrainischen Staatsverschuldung "als mittelfristig untragbar" erweise, erklärte Moody's. G7 sagen Milliardenhilfen zu Die G7-Finanzminister unter dem Vorsitz Deutschlands hatten der Ukraine bei ihrem Treffen in Königswinter bei Bonn zusätzliche Milliardenhilfen zugesagt. Der gemeinsamen Abschlusserklärung zufolge umfassen diese nun für das laufende Jahr 19,8 Milliarden US-Dollar (etwa 18,7 Milliarden Euro), davon wurden 9,8 Milliarden Dollar bei dem Treffen neu zugesagt. Mehr zum Thema Der US-Kongress billigte am Donnerstag ein Hilfspaket in Höhe von 40 Milliarden Dollar für die Ukraine, nachdem er dem Land im März bereits 14 Milliarden Dollar gewährt hatte. Der Internationale Währungsfonds (IWF) legte im März ein 1,4-Milliarden-Dollar-Hilfspaket für die Ukraine auf, die Weltbank genehmigte ein Darlehen in Höhe von 350 Millionen Dollar als Teil eines doppelt so schweren Gesamtpakets. Nach Angaben des ukrainischen Staatschefs Wolodymyr Selenskyj benötigt seine Regierung sieben Milliarden Dollar monatlich, um die ukrainische Wirtschaft am Laufen zu halten. Moody's geht von einem Gesamt-Finanzbedarf der Ukraine für dieses Jahr in Höhe von rund 50 Milliarden Dollar aus. Die Ratingagentur rechnet für 2022 mit einem kriegsbedingten Schrumpfen der ukrainischen Wirtschaft um 35 Prozent.

[djmikeyswift]

Moody beach vibes in Seaside! 😎⛅🌊🚶‍♂️#LGMobile #ShotOnLG . . #SeasideBeach #Seaside #Monterey #MontereyPeninsula #BeachVibes #BeachGlass #SeaGlass #PacificCoastHighway #Highway1 #PacificOcean #OceanView #California #HikingAddict #HikingViews #HikingAdventures #NatureLovers #Cloudscape #RoadTrip #HDRphoto #BeachPhotography #LandscapeView #LandscapePhotography #Photography📷 #MobilePhotography #CellPhonePhotography #LGG7 #ShotOnLGG7 #G7 - @SeeMonterey @LGMobileGlobal @LGUSAMobile @TheSwiftAdventures (at Seaside, California) https://www.instagram.com/p/CKKj5o9s9ze/?igshid=1s261x6fzfu52

[bdscuatui]

Moody’s hôm 16/10 hạ xếp hạng tín nhiệm của Anh do cú sốc kinh tế lớn từ Covid-19, Brexit và chính phủ thiếu kế hoạch ngân sách rõ ràng.

Xếp hạng tín nhiệm của Anh bị hạ từ Aa2 xuống Aa3, cùng mức với Bỉ và Cộng hòa Séc. Nền kinh tế lớn thứ 6 thế giới cũng ghi nhận GDP giảm mạnh nhất nhóm G7 trong quý II. Nợ công của họ cũng đã chạm 2.000 tỷ bảng - cao hơn GDP.

Moody’s đánh giá tăng trưởng của Anh "yếu hơn đáng kể so với dự báo và có thể vẫn còn yếu trong tương lai". Kinh tế Anh đang chịu sức ép lớn từ đại dịch, ngành dịch vụ bị ảnh hưởng từ các quy định giãn cách và rủi ro Covid-19 lây lan mạnh hơn.

Tin tức này là thách thức mới nhất lên Thủ tướng Anh Boris Johnson, vốn đang bị các đảng đối lập và chính nghị sĩ trong đảng Bảo thủ của ông chỉ trích vì cách xử lý đại dịch. Anh hiện có nhiều người tử vong nhất vì Covid-19 tại châu Âu.

Moody’s cho biết việc Anh chưa thể đạt thỏa thuận thương mại quy mô lớn với Liên minh châu Âu (EU) sẽ càng làm tăng thiệt hại gây ra bởi Covid-19. Hôm qua, ông Johnson cho biết việc tiếp tục đàm phán thương mại hiện tại là vô ích.

"Kể cả nếu có thỏa thuận thương mại giữa Anh và EU cuối năm 2020, quy mô có thể sẽ rất hẹp", Moody’s nhận xét. Hãng này cũng cho rằng Anh không tuân thủ kỷ luật về ngân sách và mức nợ cao không thể giảm nhanh chóng. Việc giảm chi tiêu có thể khó thực hiện về mặt chính trị, còn tăng thuế sẽ bóp nghẹt đà phục hồi kinh tế.

Chính phủ Anh thì cho biết họ không có cách nào khác ngoài tăng chi để giảm tác động của đại dịch. "Theo thời gian, khi nền kinh tế phục hồi, chính phủ sẽ có các bước đi cần thiết để ổn định tài chính công trong dài hạn", người phát ngôn của Bộ Tài chính Anh cho biết.

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[newstinxahoi]

Anh bị đánh tụt xếp hạng tín nhiệm

Moody’s hôm qua (16/10) hạ xếp hạng tín nhiệm của Anh do cú sốc kinh tế lớn từ Covid-19, Brexit và chính phủ thiếu kế hoạch ngân sách rõ ràng.

Xếp hạng tín nhiệm của Anh bị hạ từ Aa2 xuống Aa3, cùng mức với Bỉ và Cộng hòa Séc. Nền kinh tế lớn thứ 6 thế giới cũng ghi nhận GDP giảm mạnh nhất nhóm G7 trong quý II. Nợ công của họ cũng đã chạm 2.000 tỷ bảng - cao hơn GDP.

Moody’s đánh giá tăng trưởng của Anh "yếu hơn đáng kể so với dự báo và có thể vẫn còn yếu trong tương lai". Kinh tế Anh đang chịu sức ép lớn từ đại dịch, ngành dịch vụ bị ảnh hưởng từ các quy định giãn cách và rủi ro Covid-19 lây lan mạnh hơn.

Tin tức này là thách thức mới nhất lên Thủ tướng Anh Boris Johnson, vốn đang bị các đảng đối lập và chính nghị sĩ trong đảng Bảo thủ của ông chỉ trích vì cách xử lý đại dịch. Anh hiện có nhiều người tử vong nhất vì Covid-19 tại châu Âu.

Moody’s cho biết việc Anh chưa thể đạt thỏa thuận thương mại quy mô lớn với Liên minh châu Âu (EU) sẽ càng làm tăng thiệt hại gây ra bởi Covid-19. Hôm qua, ông Johnson cho biết việc tiếp tục đàm phán thương mại hiện tại là vô ích.

"Kể cả nếu có thỏa thuận thương mại giữa Anh và EU cuối năm 2020, quy mô có thể sẽ rất hẹp", Moody’s nhận xét. Hãng này cũng cho rằng Anh không tuân thủ kỷ luật về ngân sách và mức nợ cao không thể giảm nhanh chóng. Việc giảm chi tiêu có thể khó thực hiện về mặt chính trị, còn tăng thuế sẽ bóp nghẹt đà phục hồi kinh tế.

Chính phủ Anh thì cho biết họ không có cách nào khác ngoài tăng chi để giảm tác động của đại dịch. "Theo thời gian, khi nền kinh tế phục hồi, chính phủ sẽ có các bước đi cần thiết để ổn định tài chính công trong dài hạn", người phát ngôn của Bộ Tài chính Anh cho biết.

Hà Thu (theo Reuters)

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Dolar Yorum 10 Mart 2020:USD Yorum Ve Analizi

Dolar Yorum 10 Mart 2020 - Haftanın ilk işlem gününe piyasalar oldukça satıcılı bir gör��ntü ile başlarken, dünya ekonomilerine ilişkin büyüme görünümünün aşağı yönlü revize edilmesi piyasalardaki tedirginliği güçlendirdi. Bu sabah ABD vadeli işlemleri %5 aşağıda konumlanırken, Asya piyasalarında yüzde 6’ya varan oranda geri çekilme hareketine maruz kaldığı görülüyor. ABD doları yazım saati itibari ile 6.11 Türk Lirası seviyesinden işlem görmekte. FED Faiz Kararı Sonrası Bitcoin/TL Paritesi Nasıl Şekillenecek?

Dolar Yorum 10 Mart 2020:Küresel Kriz Ve Corona Virüsü

Dolar Yorum 10 Mart 2020 - Corona Virüsü Haftanın son işlem gününde ABD’de açıklanan tarım dışı istihdam raporunda Şubat ayı için 273 bin kişinin istihdama dahil edildiğine işaret etmesi beklentilerin oldukça üzerindeydi. Ayrıca işsizlik oranı verisi ise yüzde 3,5 ile Şubat ayında gerileme kaydederken, ortalama saatlik kazançların yüzde 0,3 ile bir miktar yukarı yönlü ivmelendiği kaydediliyor. Diğer taraftan Uluslararası Finans Enstitüsü (IIF)’nün Corona Virüsü etkisiyle ABD için büyüme tahminlerini düşürdüğünü açıklamasının Dolar varlıkları üzerinde zayıflatıcı etkisi hissedildi. Faiz indirim beklentilerinin de etkisiyle Dolar tarafında zayıflık sürerken, tarım dışı istihdam raporunun olumlu görünümünün fiyatlamalar açısından etkisi hissedilmedi.

Dolar Yorum 2020:Yurtiçi Piyasalar

Yurtiçi piyasalara bakacak olursak, gelişmekte olan ülke para birimleri üzerinde oluşan stres ile Dolar TL fiyat paritesinin yeni sabaha 6,20 seviyesine yönelik girişimler ile başladığı görülmekte. Diğer taraftan uluslararası kredi derecelendirme kuruluşu Moody's corona virüs salgının yarattığı olumsuz etki ile Türkiye için büyüme tahminini yüzde 3'den yüzde 2,5 seviyesine düşürdüğü görülüyor. Bu gelişme de Türk Lirası varlıkları üzerinde tansiyonun çıkmasına yol açıyor. Bugün ayrıca Mart ayına ilişkin açıklanacak olan TCMB Beklenti anketinin de kur fiyatlamaları üzerinde hareketliliği arttırması beklenebilir.

Dolar Yorum 10 Mart 2020 - Haftalık Grafik Dolar/TL’de meydana gelen yükseliş potansiyelinin 6,20 seviyesi üzeri kapanışla 6,2630 seviyesine yönelik bir hamle yapması beklenebilir. Dolar’daki bu zayıflığa rağmen Türk Lirası’nda yaşanan çekilme hareketinin kurdaki yükseliş ivmesini tetiklemesi Dolar’da meydana gelebilecek toparlanmayla 6,2630 seviyesine yönelik hareketleri desteklemekte. Ancak 6,20 seviyesi üzeri kapanışın gerçekleşmemesi halinde oluşabilecek geri çekilmeleri ise 6,10 desteği çerçevesince görüyoruz.

Dolar Yorum 2020: Dolar/TL

Corona virüsü dışında petrol fiyatlarındaki düşüş piyasalarda güvenli liman rehavetini artırdı. Böyle durumlarda genelde Dolar talep görür ve doların değeri artış kaydeder. Ancak bu durumda da Usd’nin baskılandığını görüyoruz. Zira FED’in bu ay ikinci kez faiz indireceği hatta finansal genişlemeye gideceği speküle ediliyor. Dolar Endeksi 95,3 civarında bulunuyor. Endeks 20 gün önce 100 seviyesinde sahnedeydi. FED öncü olduğu için Usd bir süre pasif kalabilir. Piyasalar Düşüşte! Ancak ilerleyen dönemde faiz indiriminin sadece FED’le sınırlı kalmayacağının beklenmesinin Usd’nin daha da zayıflamasına engel olacağı görüşündeyim. Lokal tarafta iki konu ön planda gözüküyor. Biri ekonomi diğeri jeopolitik konum ile ilgili. Lokal tarafta jeopolitik konularda TL varlıkların fiyatlamasında etki gösteren biri olan Suriye’de ateşkes sağlandı. Piyasanın sonuca, -şu ana kadar- fazla olumlu tepki veremediğini görülüyor. Zira mutabakata varılmasının biraz küresel negatif havanın gölgesinde kalması mümkün. Enflasyon Şubat sonunda 12,37% seviyesine yükselmişti. TCMB politika faizi cari enflasyonun altında. Bunun TL’yi bir miktar korunaksız bırakabileceğini; TL aleyhine kısıtlı etki yaratabileceğini söylemek mümkün. Ancak corona virüsü kaynaklı küresel yavaşlama endişeleri ile FED’in -G7 ülke MB’lerinden de indirim kararı gelebilir. Faiz indirimi TL üzerindeki baskıyı azaltacak bir etki yaratabilir. Dolar/TL paritesi bu sabah 6,16 civarında işlem gördü. 6,18 ve 6,20 direnç, 6,14 ve 6,10 destek konumunda. 6,25 teknik açından önemli bir eşik konumunda. Yatay-sınırlı aşağı seyir beklenmekte. Coinotag üzerinden Bitcoin haberleri, Coin Haber ve Coin Yorum başlıklarını takip edebilir; bizleri ayrıca Instagram, Twitter, ve Telegram‘dan da takip edebilirsiniz!, Read the full article

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Moody's: Προς τον Οκτώβριο η τελική συμφωνία για το φόρο των πολυεθνικών - Τα αγκάθια

H συμφωνία της G7 για τη φορολογία των πολυεθνικών επιχειρήσεων, η οποία ανακοινώθηκε στη σύνοδο των υπουργών Οικονομικών της ομάδας στις 5 Ιουνίου και επισφραγίστηκε το Σαββατοκύριακο από τους ηγέτες των χωρών της, θα είναι πιστοληπτικά ελαφρά αρνητική για ευρωπαϊκές χώρες, όπως την Ιρλανδία και την Ολλανδία, σύμφωνα με τον οίκο Moody’s.

Σε ανάλυσή του, ο Moody’s σημειώνει ότι η Ιρλανδία και η Ολλανδία χρησιμοποιούν τη φορολογική πολιτική στο πλαίσιο ευρύτερων στρατηγικών ανταγωνιστικότητάς τους. Προσθέτει, όμως, ότι οι Αρχές των δύο αυτών χωρών ετοιμάζονται για τη μείωση των φορολογικών εσόδων τους, εφόσον καρποφορήσουν οι διαπραγματεύσεις  για έναν κατώτατο συντελεστή φορολογίας των μεγάλων πολυεθνικών τουλάχιστον 15% και τη φορολόγηση των κερδών τους στις χώρες που δραστηριοποιούνται.

Σημειώνεται ότι οι πολυεθνικές, εδώ και δεκαετίες, μεταφέρουν σε «φορολογικούς παραδείσους» τα κέρδη που έχουν σε άλλες χώρες για να ελαχιστοποιήσουν τους φόρους που πληρώνουν.

Η Ιρλανδία, που έχει συντελεστή φορολογίας 12%, έχει προγραμματίσει μία σταδιακή μείωση των εσόδων της από εταιρική φορολογία κατά 2 δισ. δολάρια (το 0,5% του ΑΕΠ της το 2019) έως το 2025. Τα έσοδά της από την πηγή αυτή ανήλθαν σε 12 δισ. δολάρια το 2020.  

Η Ολλανδία, εξ άλλου, έχει εκφράσει τη στήριξη της στο σχέδιο της G7 και προχωρά σε αλλαγές της φορολογικής νομοθεσίας της που θα περιορίζουν το στάτους της ως φορολογικού παραδείσου.

Υπάρχει ακόμη δρόμος Σύμφωνα με τον Moody’s, η κατ’ αρχήν συμφωνία της G7, αν και είναι ένα σημαντικό ορόσημο, έχει ακόμη δρόμο για να οριστικοποιηθεί, καθώς υπάρχουν ακόμη εμπόδια που πρέπει να ξεπεραστούν.

Οι διαπραγματεύσεις θα ξαναρχίσουν στις 30 Ιουνίου και την 1η Ιουλίου για τη φορολογία των κερδών των πολυεθνικών στις χώρες που δημιουργούνται (ο λεγόμενος πρώτος πυλώνας) και τον κατώτατο φορολογικό συντελεστή (δεύτερος πυλώνας).

Οι υπουργοί Οικονομικών της G20 θα συνεδριάσουν στη Βενετία στις 9-10 Ιουλίου και στην ατζέντα της συνόδου θα είναι ο συντελεστής 15%. Μία τελική συμφωνία δεν θα είναι δυνατή πριν τη σύνοδο της G-20 τον Οκτώβριο, αφού ψηφισθεί προηγουμένως η σχετική νομοθεσία από το αμερικανικό Κογκρέσο.

Οσον αφορά τον πρώτο πυλώνα, υπάρχουν αντιρρήσεις από τις ΗΠΑ, αναφέρει ο Moody’s, ενώ αντίθετα μεγάλη είναι η στήριξη από τη Βρετανία, τη Γαλλία και την Ιταλία, τις χώρες που έχουν επιβάλει μονομερώς ψηφιακούς φόρους, καθώς και τον Καναδά, ο οποίος έχει προαναγγείλει την επιβολή ψηφιακού φόρου.

Η στήριξη για τον δεύτερο πυλώνα είναι ευρύτερη, αν και στην περίπτωση αυτή υπάρχει διαφωνία μεταξύ των χωρών της ΕΕ για το ύψος του κατώτατου συντελεστή, με τον Γάλλο υπουργό Οικονομικών, Μπρουνό Λεμέρ, να έχει δηλώσει ότι θα επιδιώξει να υπάρξει συμφωνία με συντελεστή υψηλότερο από το 15%.

Ο ΟΟΣΑ είχε υπολογίσει τον Οκτώβριο ότι αλλαγές στην παγκόσμια φορολογία, με βάση τους δύο παραπάνω πυλώνες, θα μπορούσαν να οδηγήσουν σε επιπλέον φορολογικά έσοδα από τις πολυεθνικές επιχειρήσεις ύψους 47 – 81 δισ. ευρώ ετησίως (ποσά που αντιστοιχούν στο 1,9% έως 3,2% των παγκόσμιων εσόδων από εταιρική φορολογία).

Η σημασία για την Ελλάδα Η φορολόγηση των μεγάλων πολυεθνικών έχει ιδιαίτερη σημασία και για την Ελλάδα, η οποία, όπως και οι περισσότερες άλλες χώρες της ΕΕ, έχει υψηλές απώλειες εσόδων στον προϋπολογισμό της.

Το ακριβές ύψος των διαφυγόντων εσόδων από τη μη φορολόγηση των επιχειρηματικών κολοσσών δεν είναι γνωστό, αλλά από εκτιμήσεις που έχουν γίνει σε μελέτες και έχουν δημοσιοποιηθεί πρόσφατα από το ΔΝΤ προκύπτει ότι είναι ιδιαίτερα σημαντικές.

Από τις μελέτες που έχουν γίνει τα τελευταία χρόνια προκύπτει ότι η απώλεια της Ελλάδας λόγω μεταφοράς εταιρικών κερδών στο εξωτερικό ανερχόταν από 8% έως 26% των συνολικών εσόδων από τη φορολογία επιχειρήσεων μεταξύ του 2012 και του 2016.

Ποιο ποσό θα μπορεί να ανακτήσει από τις απώλειες αυτές η Ελλάδα θα φανεί, όταν υπάρξει η τελική συμφωνία και είναι γνωστές όλες οι παράμετροί της.

Πηγή άρθρου: Moody's: Προς τον Οκτώβριο η τελική συμφωνία για το φόρο των πολυεθνικών - Τα αγκάθια