#minecraft statistics

[ink-ghoul]

what's artimators? do you make videos about it? I'll suscribe to whatever you do

-🖤

The Artimator SMP ⛏️💥 is a private server 🧑‍🤝‍🧑 where a bunch of creatives 🎨🖌️📝🎵 from the Hermitcraft 🦀🐚 & Life Series 💚💛❤️ fandoms 🏰 come together 🤝💪 to play Minecraft! ⚒️⚒️⚒️

We just play for fun but a couple people make videos about their shenanigans

I don't make videos myself, but what I like doing there is making custom models and organizing events and games! So you might see me there sometimes

For videos you can check Tibby's channel (I believe Bax and Cherri also have a couple videos about it)

[tropicalcontinental]

Still thinking about that CL16 +TMA crossover thing (spurred by @blinkycravesviolence's post and the discussion that happened on the discord 💥💥💥)

[burger-phan]

glad to see that the several hours I spend on this bit were worth it

(on @pseudophan's phannie minecraft server)

[imonaskypecallmom]

one day ill see the minceraft screen... one day

[wiidotmom]

what they don't tell you about open source software development is that sometimes people expect you to maintain that software after you create it

[p0tat0-g0ddess]

Hey gang I’m publishing a book please buy it so I don’t have to get a real job

[nonsense-yelling]

Deducing Creator Votes

UPDATED 99% certain on the accuracy now. Most of the ccs didn't really keep who they voted a secret and the only liars (so far) were Fit (told Forever he voted for him) and one of the French. =================================== On the QSMP Elections, we can see that only 16 creators voted, for a total of 32 votes. How? Because every other reasonable number gives us fractional votes.

This breaks down to: BadBoyHalo 32 x 37.5% = 12 votes Etoiles 32 x 25% = 8 votes Forever 32 x 31.25% = 10 votes Mike 32 x 6.25% = 2 votes

This is the list of voters: 5 Brazilians (Pac, Mike, Forever, Felps, Cellbit) 3 French (Aypierre (maybe), Baghera, Antoine) 2 Spanish (Max, Vegetta) 6 English (BBH, Fit, Foolish, Slime, Jaiden, Philza) Of the people active on the server: Etoiles, Roier, and Quackity (and maybe Aypierre lol see bottom of post) did not vote

And now how everyone voted, with information obtained either by the content creator stating who they voted for or process of elimination/deduction:

We know how the Brazilians voted.

Mike (2 votes) Pac, Forever x1 each (stated votes)

Forever (10 votes) 3 Brazilians (Cellbit, Mike, Felps) x2 Pac, Max, BBH, Philza x1 each (stated votes)

This is a funny thing to see, as it shows no one wanted Forever as a President besides the Brazilians. Well, maybe Max did? Max wants love. But also since he has... "destructive" plans for the Federation/island, he didn't really seem to care who became President. Philza voted as "Thanks for the NINHO" BBH voted due to friendship guilt tripping Fit said to Forever he voted for him, but we can tell that was just a lie (unless one of the Brazilians admit to breaking rank there is no space).

Etoiles (8 votes) Kameto OR Aypierre x2 (see bottom of post) BBH, Baghera, Philza, Foolish, Fit x1 each (stated votes) Antoine x1

I can see why Etoiles is a bit mad with people (IN RP of course!) - the lack of double voting by the French is probably a big ouch. Baghera and Antoine may have only voted due to patriotism / guilt. In fact, I'd say his biggest supporter was Philza - who abandoned his anarchist, hate the government ways to actually vote, because he apparently really wanted to see Etoiles as President. (Probably Foolish also preferred him)

BadBoyHalo (12 votes) Vegeta (twitter), Jaiden, Slime x2 each Max, Forever, Baghera, Foolish x1 each (stated votes) Fit, Antoine x1 each

This shows that the only person (excluding the Brazilians) who didn't vote for BBH was Philza* *(And either Kameto or Aypierre - make your own deductions based on who you think actually voted there)

These are of course just best guesses based on process of elimination and assumptions based on interactions. Even the "stated" votes could have been lies, so do take this all with a grain of salt and not as hard fact!

For the breakdown on who did not vote: Roier said he never received the election packet so had no code so could not vote Quackity is assumed not to have voted to be impartial Etoiles is assumed not to have voted as a strategy to increase his chances of winning A French non-voter? Kameto said he would vote for Etoiles on twitter, but he doesn't actually play on the sever. Aypierre is a troll who said he'd be lying to everyone and tell them he voted for them (Etoiles was on the list). But he said he voted for Etoiles and at least he plays on the server. (Update: August 11 he tells BBH he voted for him lol) Believe who you want here.

As an aside, without changing any of the other categories (leaderboard/community), BBH needed 3 votes to change to win.

He needed to gain 3 more votes, or Forever to lose 1 and to gain 2, or Forever to lose 2 and to gain 1.

Example scenarios:

BBH and Max do not vote for Forever and Max gives both votes to BBH = BBH win

BBH does not vote for Forever and Etoiles votes x2 for BBH = BBH win 

if you want to check my math, this post has the other slides: https://www.tumblr.com/catsinaspacesuit/724952848018866176 Reminder: Leaderboard x 15% + Community x 35% + Creator x 50% = Total Vote

And yes, if BBH had gotten the full 15% (or 13% even) of the leaderboards like BBH misunderstood it to be, he would have of course won. The leaderboards were poorly done, considering the only cc who seemed to know how it would work was maybe Etoiles? At least he knew 2nd place would get points dunno if he knew it was proportional (or he may have grinded even harder). Anyways, you would have thought the admins could have cleared up the massive confusion everyone (cc's and community) had about it, even in just their private discord, even if the only ones who contacted them asking were the French (dunno if true). Even Forever was surprised he got any points from it.

Maybe an example would have helped?

v tweet prob more accurate? come back to later?

To win via the community vote, BBH needed 19% - twice as many votes as he got.

I'm rounding here! Using 200k as the vote total, even tho there were a few more than that because I'm being lazy about grabbing my own screenshots. But "back of the napkin" calculations (using the qsmp global vote info that was released as the votes were happening and what I recall) are as follows:

This mystery candidate is BBH. It can't be Forever (too few Portuguese votes) or Etoiles (too few French votes) and Mike/Felps got too few total votes.

So BBH got around 20k and needed 40k votes to win. There were around 32k English votes, 34k Spanish votes, 40k French votes, and 100k Brazilian votes.

So if the vote breakdown stayed roughly the same to the end, half his votes came from Portuguese speakers and a quarter from Spanish speakers.

For reference:

Forever got 51% / 100k votes. 88% of the Portuguese vote and I'm guessing he was the first place (45%) Spanish vote.

Mike got around 7400 votes.

Etoiles got 33% / 67k votes. French speakers were very united on their candidate. I'm guessing he was also the first place (46%) English and second place (30%) Spanish candidate. So a pretty tall order for BBH to win more votes, especially since the community was guilt tripping on Etoiles / the French being ignored (ironic, since it appears the Brazilian's are to blame - they demand so much admin attention that everyone else gets ignored).

[ghoulodont]

i had raindrop watch nature documentaries, which i feel like is an absolutely classic raindrop thing, because i needed it for metaphor reasons but i personally think that what they usually watch is youtube video essays about obscure subjects: im talking roblox oof sound, mario 1/2 A press, et cetera. rain wasnt feeling up for it

[swallowtanager]

The monte carlo "Minecraft Fishing for Mending Books" simulation has eaten my CPU, homework, and braincells. Send help.

[panda-wearing-pants]

The best times to eliminate someone in the Life Series

17, 16, and 15 are grey because Last Life was the only season where they were eliminated by a player, and I will mostly be ignoring them.

First place is usually eliminated by Grian, so I used his score from 3L, LL, and LimL, and Scott's score for DL.

As one would expect, the person who eliminates 2nd place usually wins, except for in DL, where Scott eliminated himself.

Eliminating 3rd place actually gives the killer an equal chance of winning as eliminating 2nd place, because Scar was the only one to not win after killing 3rd. For both 2nd and 3rd, the killer does better than 98.46% of other people on average.

Interestingly, 4th place's killer does worse than 5th's, who does worse than 7th, but they all do better than 6th. Pearl was the only winner to kill 4th, and the other killers all got 3rd, except for Ren in LL. 5th was eliminated by the winners in LL, DL, and LimL, Pearl was again the only winner to kill 6th, and the other killers got 2nd, 4th and 5th. 7th place was only eliminated by Scar (3L and SL) and Scott (LL and DL).

9th is better than 8th, partly because Scar and Ren got 1st and 2nd in the seasons where they eliminated 9th, and Gem did the best after eliminating 8th, getting 3rd.

People who eliminated 10th and 11th only did better than 64% and 54%, while 12th place killers did better than 75.58%. Until LimL, Grian eliminated 12th each time, and Scott and Scar eliminated them in the next two seasons.

13th is very low, and is the only place other than 15th to never be eliminated by any of the five winners.

14th place was only eliminated by a player 3 times, once by 12th (Skizz), and twice by the winner (Scott and Scar).

There are no places that are only eliminated by the winner, and 13th, 11th, 10th, and 8th have never been eliminated by the winner of that season. 14th is the worst placement to eliminate that has been eliminated by the winner (twice), 7th is the 3rd best (after 2nd and 3rd), and 13th is the worst (just unlucky, I guess).

[aidenwaites]

The most random things trending on this website currently

[the-chessboard-is-personal]

honestly should've fucking expected a leak in the ceiling with how much every ounce of this world wants me to suffer.

[motherspores]

"average minecraft player makes 3 cults a year" factoid a statistical error. average minecraft player makes 0 cults a year. Cults Joel, who lives in a cave and starts a cult every time he joins a new minecraft server, is an outlier adn should not have been counted.

[genevawrenn]

So Cleo may have broken the world record [I cannot clip it but they provide the statistic for distance travelled by horse in Minecraft as 3861.48 km over Season 10 at 2 hours 16 minutes into Tango's VOD today] in their spite ride home from quitting exile.

They win guys, that's so fucking cool.

Tango's VOD

[Some of it might have been pre-exile but it's hard to know exactly how much but roughly 200km if they had a similar statistic to Skizzleman or Tango.]

[bucket-of-amethyst]

"Average Minecraft server has 3 gold farms" factoid actualy just statistical error. Average server has 1 gold farm. Hermitcraft Server, which has built 10,000 gold farms each day, is an outlier adn should not have been counted

[locusfandomtime]

Doing the maths: Grian's failure at getting a mending book

lots of talk about maths and probabilities below the cut! but there's a graph and simple explanation at the end if you want to get the gist of it and are bad at maths.

(I am still young and learning maths, critique/advice always welcomed)

What are the odds of getting a mending book in Minecraft?

(I am assuming Grian has been doing all his fishing with Luck of the Sea 3)

The probability of a mending book is actually a bit annoying to estimate. The Minecraft Wiki lists fishing up an enchanted book as 1.9% chance. This is for ANY enchanted book. The Minecraft wiki talks about how the chance of an enchantment being selected is calculated. Mending has a weight of 2. Using the table, mending has a probability of 2/135.

However, Grian is looking for any book with mending, not just a pure mending book. Additional enchantments are calculated in a different way, involving RNG, which means it won't be as easy to model. Due to this reason, I'll just be using the odds for a pure mending book throughout.

TLDR: a mending book has a 0.028..% chance (2/135*0.019*100)

Grian's Data

According to this screenshot, Grian has used a fishing rod 5679 times. This number may not be fully accurate, as it includes the times he's fished other players, rather than just fished for items, but it is a good estimate.

To help visualise this data, with a median waiting time between catches of 17.5 seconds, Grian has spent over 20 hours fishing so far! He may have a problem.

Is this statistically significant?

Hypothesis testing (p-value approach):

H0: p = 19/67500 (the null hypothesis - he has no mending books because of chance)

H1: p < 19/67500 (the alternate hypothesis - he has no mending books due to different odds)

5679 trials, 0 mending books

X ~ B(5679, 19/67500) (binomial distribution, 5679 tries with a probability of a mending book being 19/67500, where X is the number of mending books)

p(X=0) (what is the probability the number of mending books being 0)

p = 0.2021473392

Now, the point at which data becomes significant is subjective. For instance, you *could* get a million heads in a row flipping a coin, it's not impossible, but at a certain point, you can begin to say "okay there's something not normal about this". For this approach, the closer the p-value is to 0, the more evidence there is against the null hypothesis . The p-value here is far above a significance level of 0.01, or 0.05, or 0.1. There isn't a clear line between significant/non-significant, but this is answer is quite a bit far from 0

With this, I cannot reject the null hypothesis.

Personal conclusion: this is not statistically significant, Grian is just unlucky.

Are other values statistically significant?

Gem's proposed 9000: results in a p-value of 0.079... more significant than Grian's number but I don't imagine Mojang would be too concerned. As said though, it's all subjective.

I am bad at maths, what does all this mean?

Here is a graph, showing what number of mending books you might have after 5679 tries. The height of the bar represents the probability of getting that amount. The numbers at the top are the (rounded) numbers I used in my calculation

The pink column is 0 mending books - like what Grian has! As you can see, it is less likely than getting 1 or 2 books, but not too uncommon to happen.

End conclusion: Grian has bad luck. Like, not as hilariously bad as he thinks, but still bad. If he keeps going, chances are he will get a mending book, but I think he should probably stop fishing because at this point he has a problem.