#michigan unemployment

[terrafey]

this is on the michigan unemployment form

[boyohazard]

I really hate how the majority of the problems I had in Michigan followed me to Oregon

[mercoglianotrueblog]

#Michigan Un.:#consumer sent. lowest in 60 yrs

#CPI down to 5%

#global econ+3.2%

#US #unemployment 3.6%,lowest in 50 yrs

#banks issue is interest-rate,duration risk not default

#BofA"recession starts in May acc. yield curve, high rates a #stocks' trouble"

https://salvatoremercogliano.blogspot.com/2023/04/the-recession-ghost.html?spref=tw

[snorlaxlovesme]

how does a business incur a overdue fee of TWO CENTS to unemployment

[socialjusticeinamerica]

Trump supporters are Nazis. They wave swastikas, praise Hitler, spout Nazi rhetoric, and attack Jews and other “minorities.”

You can not take the high road with people who are killing you and passing legislation to outlaw your existence. Don’t criticize resisters who want to smash Nazis. They are protecting you from being annihilated. These aren’t ordinary times and things will not get better by ignoring Nazis and being polite to them. Republikkkan MAGAt Nazi thugs see politeness as weakness. Being polite and not being united gave us Trump. With Trump came an openly fascist, and openly bigoted Republikkkan party that is radicalizing their base with calls for civil/race war.

State legislatures are openly outlawing us, our way of life, and our very existence. Their armed militias are violently harassing us in the streets with impunity. Republikkkan leaning cops execute us. We are gassed and beaten when we protest. This isn’t an intellectual debate. We are quite far down the road to fascism.

The Republikkkans are acting with a desperate urgency. They believe this is their last best chance to seize control of the government and “eradicate” us. The term eradicate is one they are now using in their speeches, in the social media posts, in their literature, in their propaganda, and at their rallies. Trump now tells those at his current rallies that he will be their “retribution” against us.

If you still think taking the high road will work you are removed from what is taking place in the streets, uninformed, or extremely naive. While you sit in your comfortable and secure home typing on your keyboards our allies are living in fear and suffering abuse from MAGAt foot soldiers as well as dealing with hostile legislation aimed at them.

If you want to live in a country that is straight, mainly white, and evangelical there’s a strong possibility that could become reality soon. Catholics, Jews, Muslims, Hindus, etc, atheists/agnostic, non-whites, poor, elderly, handicapped, immigrant or children of immigrants (even white ones), educated, Democrats, liberal, progressive, urban, lgbt, and many more you are on the chopping block.

If the Republikkkans win there will be deportations, bans, executions, imprisonment, loss of citizenship and rights, mass unemployment of undesirables, and millions driven into the streets and deprived of human dignity. There will be mass purges with no recourse for the victimized.

Business will run amok with no regulations or accountability of any kind. Unions will not exist and workers will have no rights. Necessities will become unattainable. Armed white supremacists will roam the streets doling out Krystallnacht terror. The United States will deny science and healthcare. The US will slip to third world status with the rich living in luxury inside gated compounds with armed security while the poor whites struggle in trailers and everyone else outlawed.

It’s not doom and gloom scare tactics. This is all beginning to happen in Red states. Women are losing control over their bodies. The LGBT are being denied basic rights while being outlawed as people. Black and brown people are being denied basic rights due to systemic institutionalized racism while being executed in the streets. The elderly are being left to die as their social safety nets are removed. Workers, even white Republicans, are being denied labor unions that protect them and give them basic human dignity. Non-evangelicals are persecuted for their beliefs. Red state citizens are armed by their state legislatures and sent out on killing sprees. Child labor laws have been rescinded. Child marriage is being legalized. Health and safety regulations are being rolled back. The list goes on and on.

When will we stop being desensitized and take this rise of fascism seriously. How many have to die and suffer before we organize, say enough, and push back.

[lboogie1906]

Staff Sergeant Dr. Andrew Felton Brimmer (September 13, 1926 - October 7, 2012) A writer, an economist, and an advocate for affirmative action, was known as the first African American to hold a governorship on the Federal Reserve Bank.

Born in Newellton, Louisiana, he moved to Bremerton, Washington, and enlisted in the Army. He served in the army for two years, rising to the rank of staff sergeant. He enrolled at the University of Washington, where he received his BA in Economics and an MA. He studied at the University of Bombay and completed a Ph.D. in Economics at Harvard University.

He promoted a monetary policy that sought to alleviate unemployment and reduce the national deficit. He argued that racial discrimination hurt the US economy by marginalizing potentially productive workers.

He served as an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. He was dispatched to Sudan to help establish a central bank. A teaching position followed at Michigan State University and the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business. President John F. Kennedy appointed him as deputy assistant secretary of commerce for economic policy and then assistant secretary for economic affairs. He was appointed to the Board of Governors for the Federal Reserve Bank by President Lyndon B. Johnson.

He took a teaching position at the Harvard Graduate School of Business, he founded his consulting firm, Brimmer & Company, Inc. He was named by President Bill Clinton to head a financial control board which helped the DC avoid a financial crisis.

His writings reflect a dissatisfaction with racial discrimination in African American education which he blames for income disparity among whites. He has promoted strategies that couple Affirmative Action with African American self-help.

His numerous organizations include president of the Association for the Study of Afro-American Life and History and co-chairman of the Interracial Council for Business Opportunity. He received awards from the National Economic Association, One Hundred Black Men, and the New York Urban Coalition. He was a member of Sigma Pi Phi Fraternity. #africanhistory365 #africanexcellence #sigmapiphi

[beguines]

With the collapse of both the rural and urban economies, millions, including many children, took to riding the rails. In 1932, Southern Pacific, just one of many railroads, threw almost seven hundred thousand people off its trains. Shantytowns, aptly dubbed "Hoovervilles," emerged in major cities around the country, especially in those like Chicago that were transportation centers. Spontaneous struggles, including group raids on food stores, emerged. And into this environment stepped the Unemployed Councils (UC), led by the Communist Party (CP). In a matter of months, hundreds of militant mass organizations had been organized around the country. On March 6, 1930, Communists worldwide took part in unemployment demonstrations. In the United States, where more than a million demonstrated, it is estimated that fifty thousand protestors turned out in Boston, thirty thousand in Philadelphia, twenty-​five thousand in Cleveland, twenty thousand in Pittsburgh and Youngstown, and one hundred thousand each in New York City and Detroit. Active UCs existed around the country, including the South; Atlanta, Birmingham, Richmond, and Chattanooga were early centers. Yet isolated areas were not immune. Especially militant and well organized were groups in Michigan's Upper Peninsula. In the iron mining town of Crosby, Minnesota, the Communist leader of the UC won election as mayor, began hiring unemployed miners, and led a hunger march on the state capital. Yet as Lorence notes, although Michigan was among the most active places, with large, influential unemployed movements not only in Detroit and the Upper Peninsula, but in Flint, Saginaw and Bay City, and Pontiac, the more conservative western part of the state was less militant and confrontational.

Piven and Cloward call it the "largest movement of the unemployed the country has known". As a contemporary social scientist, Helen Seymour, argues, "Every large city, most small cities and towns, practically all states . . . witnessed the growth, with tremendous variation as to type, duration, method of accomplishment, of relief pressure groups". The Musteite Unemployed Leagues claimed a hundred thousand members in 187 branches in Ohio alone, and another forty to fifty thousand members in Pennsylvania in 1933, and they were dwarfed by the much larger Communist-​led Unemployed Councils in members and branches. Of course, some areas were passed over, and even when they did emerge, they did not approach high levels of militancy. Nevertheless, what is most striking is the ubiquity and range of unemployed struggles and active groups.

One of the richest accounts of early unemployed activity is given by Nathaniel Weyl. The UCs were organized by blocks and in tenements, and also in breadlines, flophouses, and relief centers, all with their particular demands and forms of action. One of the major activities of the neighborhood committees was to fight evictions: they amassed crowds, fought evictors, including police, moved furniture back when it had been removed, and re-​hooked up utilities. By 1932, in some cities evictions had all but ended. All over the country, unemployed groups organized marches on relief stations, city halls, and even state capitals, demanding greater relief. In Chicago, where the Socialist Party (SP) was especially strong, the UC initiated a joint demonstration of tens of thousands of unemployed, demanding no cut in relief and an end to evictions. Chicago and Illinois officials rushed to Washington, DC, to borrow 6.3 million dollars from the Reconstruction Finance Corporation in order to meet the demands. Mayor Anton Cermak responded to critics by highlighting the seriousness of the growing radicalization of the masses: "I say to the men who object to this public relief because it will add to the tax burden on their property, they should be glad to pay for it, for it is the best way of ensuring that they keep their property". The central national demand of the UCs was unemployment insurance at the expense of employers and the state, embodied in the Frazier-​Lundeen Bill and eventually supported by unions as well as all unemployed groups.

In addition, many of the unemployed groups were industrially oriented. United Mine Workers of America (UMWA) locals in West Virginia, Ohio, and Pennsylvania established active unemployed organizations of their laid-​off members. Communists organized unemployed stockyard workers for hunger marches. The CP-​led Auto Workers Union (AWU) led marches and picket lines at auto plants protesting layoffs, the most famous of which was the March 7, 1932, Ford Hunger March in Detroit and Dearborn, Michigan. As the subsequent chapters demonstrate, active, mass-​supported groups of unemployed in steel towns and wood centers were widespread and played important roles in union organizing.

Michael Goldfield, The Southern Key: Class, Race, and Radicalism in the 1930s and 1940s

[newstfionline]

Tuesday, August 20, 2024

‘Looking for a change they’re not getting’ (Washington Post) The historic inflation that hit the United States and every other advanced nation over the past three years helps explain voters’ ire. But conditions in Erie—a bellwether county that voted in turn for Barack Obama, Donald Trump and Joe Biden—show how long-term developments also are to blame. The county has fewer jobs and residents today than it did in 2001. Though the 3.9 percent unemployment rate in June was lower than the national 4.1 percent mark, that’s in part because many people have dropped out of the labor force because of age or disability. The poverty rate is higher than the national average; a larger share of people rely on government assistance, including food stamps; and job opportunities for the young are scarce. Almost 1 in 5 Americans live in a “left behind” county like this one, according to the Economic Innovation Group, a nonpartisan research outfit. These roughly 1,000 U.S. counties grew their population and household income less than half as fast as the nation did between 2000 and 2016. “It seems like right now the whole country is looking for a change they’re not getting,” said Joe Sinnott, a Democrat who served three terms as Erie’s mayor and now heads the county’s economic development efforts. “They’re looking for a stability they don’t have and they’re trying these different ways to get it, to get back to the stability of the Clinton years or maybe even going back to the Reagan years.”

The Hotelification of Offices (NYT) Visitors to the Springline complex in Menlo Park, Calif., are surrounded by a sense of comfort and luxury often found at high-end hotels: off-white walls with a Roman clay finish, a gray-and-white marble coffee table and a white leather bench beneath an 8-by-4 resin canvas etched with the words “Hello, tomorrow.” Springline’s signature scent—hints of salty sea air, white water lily, dry musk and honeydew melon—linger in the air. But Springline isn’t a hotel. It’s a “work resort,” meaning that its office space designs have taken a page from boutique hotels. The complex is a 6.4-acre town square steps from the Menlo Park Caltrain station in San Francisco’s Bay Area. It includes two premium office buildings, nine restaurants, outdoor work spaces and terraces where people can mingle and connect, gym facilities, a high-end golf simulator, an upscale Italian grocery store and a 183-unit residential building. And like any good resort, it has a calendar of community events from craft cocktail fairs to silent discos. With an office vacancy rate at about 20 percent in the United States, downtown business districts are trying whatever they can to get workers back—including resort-like work spaces that match or surpass the comfort of their homes.

Protesters Are Converging on Chicago. City Leaders Say They’re Prepared. (NYT) As delegates arrived in Chicago on Sunday night ahead of the Democratic National Convention, protesters gathered along Michigan Avenue. On Monday, as the political show begins inside the United Center, demonstrators say they will gather by the thousands outside. And as the convention goes on, activists say, so too will the protests, every single day, showcasing divisions on the left during a week when Vice President Kamala Harris is trying to project Democratic unity and enthusiasm. From the moment the Democrats chose Chicago as the site for their nominating convention, it was a foregone conclusion that protesters would show up in large numbers to protest the Biden-Harris administration’s approach to a war that Gaza health authorities say has killed more than 40,000 Palestinians. The city has a long tradition of left-wing activism, and nominating conventions tend to attract demonstrations.

The Mennonites Making the Amazon Their Home (NYT) Groups of Mennonites, seeking inexpensive land far from modern life, are carving out new colonies in the Amazon. After weeks of living in jungle tents, the handful of Mennonite families trying to make a new home deep in the Peruvian Amazon began to despair. Wasps attacked as they tried to clear forest. Heavy rains turned the road to their camp to mud. Running low on supplies, some wanted to turn back. Instead, they worked harder and eventually carved out an enclave. “There’s a place here where I wanted to live so we came and opened part of it up,” recalled Wilhelm Thiessen, a Mennonite farmer. “That’s what everyone did to have a place to live.” Today, seven years later, the cluster of homesteads is now a thriving colony, Wanderland, home to roughly 150 families, a church—which doubles as a school—and a cheese-processing facility. It is one of a string of Mennonite settlements that have taken root throughout the Amazon, turning forest into thriving farms.

Ukrainian president says the push into Russia’s Kursk region is to create a buffer zone there (AP) Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Sunday the daring military incursion into Russia’s Kursk region aims to create a buffer zone to prevent further attacks by Moscow across the border. It was the first time Zelenskyy clearly stated the aim of the operation that began Aug. 6. Previously, he had said the operation aimed to protect communities in the bordering Sumy region from constant shelling. This weekend, Ukraine destroyed a key bridge in the region and struck a second one nearby, disrupting supply lines as it pressed the incursion, officials said.

Lawmakers in Turkey draw blood in brawl during debate on jailed colleague (AP) A brawl broke out among Turkish lawmakers Friday during a heated debate over an opposition delegate currently jailed on what are widely considered to be politically motivated charges. Televised footage showed Ahmet Sik, a representative from the same party as the imprisoned deputy, being approached and attacked by a lawmaker from President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ruling party while speaking at the chamber’s podium. Sik had just called members of the ruling party a “terrorist organization.” In a subsequent scuffle involving dozens of deputies, a female lawmaker was struck, leaving drops of blood on steps leading the speaker’s lectern. Another opposition member was also reportedly injured. Physical tussles are not uncommon among Turkey’s lawmakers.

Thailand’s king endorses Paetongtarn Shinawatra as new prime minister (CNN) Thailand’s king endorses new prime minister. King Maha Vajiralongkorn endorsed Paetongtarn Shinawatra as Thailand’s new prime minister on Sunday, two days after her election by the country’s parliament. The daughter of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, Paetongtarn becomes the youngest Thai prime minister and the third of her family to occupy this position. Her government faces several challenges, including reforms of the economic and universal healthcare systems.

Chinese and Philippine ships collide at Sabina Shoal, a new flash point (Washington Post) Chinese and Philippine coast guard vessels collided early Monday near the Sabina Shoal, according to officials from both countries and security analysts tracking ship movements, opening a new flash point between the countries in their territorial dispute in the South China Sea. While skirmishes between Chinese and Philippine ships have been increasing across the South China Sea, Monday’s incident marks the first time the countries have clashed directly over the Sabina Shoal. China claims the vast majority of the South China Sea as its territory, although it has no legal backing to do so. Its claim includes all of the Spratly Islands archipelago. The Sabina Shoal, 86 miles from the Philippine island of Palawan, is one of the closest maritime features in the Spratlys to the Philippines. It is within the 200 miles that the Philippines considers its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).

Blinken pushes for cease-fire in his 9th trip to Mideast since war began (AP) U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken says now is “maybe the last” opportunity to reach a Gaza cease-fire agreement that would return hostages held by Hamas and bring relief to Palestinian suffering after 10 months of war in Gaza. Blinken on Monday was on his ninth urgent mission to the Middle East since the conflict began. His visit came days after mediators, including the United States, expressed renewed optimism a deal was near. But Hamas has voiced deep dissatisfaction with the latest proposal and Israel has said there were areas it was unwilling to compromise. The trip also comes amid fears the conflict could widen into a deeper regional war following the killings of top militant commanders in Lebanon that Iran blamed on Israel.

Kuwait, in grip of desert summer heat, announces power cuts after fuel disruption (AP) Tiny, oil-rich Kuwait on Sunday instituted rolling blackouts in several residential neighborhoods despite high summertime temperatures in the desert emirate. The state-run KUNA news agency blamed “a fuel supply disruption” for the blackouts, which shut down desalination plants and some power stations. The forecast high for Kuwait on Sunday was 43 degrees Celsius (109 Fahrenheit). Weather forecasters warned it could feel like 53 degrees Celsius (127 degrees Fahrenheit).

Former Saudi official alleges Prince Mohammed forged king’s signature on Yemen war decree, BBC says (AP) A former Saudi official alleged in a report that Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman forged the signature of his father on the royal decree that launched the kingdom’s yearslong, stalemated war against Yemen’s Houthi rebels. Saudi Arabia did not immediately respond to a request for comment over the allegations made without supporting evidence by Saad al-Jabri in an interview published Monday by the BBC, though the kingdom has described him as “a discredited former government official.” Al-Jabri, a former Saudi intelligence official who lives in exile in Canada, has been in a yearslong dispute with the kingdom as his two children have been imprisoned in a case he describes as trying to lure him back to Saudi Arabia. The allegation comes as Prince Mohammed now serves as the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia, often meeting leaders in place of his father, the 88-year-old King Salman. His assertive behavior, particularly at the start of his ascension to power around the beginning of the Yemen war in 2015, extended to a wider crackdown on any perceived dissent or power base that could challenge his rule.

Libya’s central bank ‘suspends operations’ after official abducted (Guardian) On Sunday, the Central Bank of Libya announced that it would be “suspending all operations” following the kidnapping of Musab Msallem, the bank’s head of information technology. It’s currently unclear who exactly is behind the kidnapping, but the bank said that Msallem and other executives had been “threatened with abduction” by “unlawful parties,” adding that it would “not resume operations” until he’s released. Last week, a group of armed men besieged the central bank’s headquarters in the Libyan capital of Tripoli, which local media said was an attempt to force the bank’s governor to resign. Currently, the African nation is still split by a power struggle between the NATO-backed official government centered around Tripoli in the west and a rival administration operating out of the east.

Trekking With Grandpa, Scuba Diving With Grandma (NYT) Rick Rhoads, 80, was “training like crazy” last spring, walking six miles a day—“all hills”—to get ready for his summer vacation. Mr. Rhoads, of Orcas Island, Wash., and Lucy Erent, his 15-year-old granddaughter, who lives in Prague, were planning to trek 85 miles in eight days along Scotland’s West Highland Way. Mr. Rhoads wasn’t daunted by the distance, or by the age difference. He said he was looking forward to continuing discussions the pair has had on video calls, on topics as varied as stage drama, cosplay, pandemics and family dynamics. “I’ll get her to do the talking when we’re going up hills,” he joked. When they finally did the trek, in early July, Mr. Rhoads said the adventure was challenging, but he was eager to do another, perhaps a route “that passed by cafes.” Sixty may or may not be the new 40, but it’s clear that many older adults are enjoying longer “healthspans”—the time they are active, fit and healthy. This shift is adding a new dimension to traditional grandparent-grandchild vacations: adventure. Think bike trips instead of cruise ships, wilderness treks instead of bus tours.

[justinspoliticalcorner]

Chris Smith at Vanity Fair:

On a sunny afternoon the views from Joe Biden’s campaign headquarters in downtown Wilmington, Delaware are so clear that if you squint hard you can almost see the White House, 100 miles to the south. The floor plan is open and the windows run just about floor to ceiling, so all 200 staffers share in the sweeping vista.

With the striking exception of probably the most important person on the premises. That Jen O’Malley Dillon sits at the very center of the office is appropriate, symbolically: She is a hub of the reelection effort’s leadership infrastructure. It also means that O’Malley Dillon, officially the campaign chair, is the only person on the team who occupies a dimly lit cubicle. Four years ago, J.O.D., as most everyone in Bidenworld knows her, became the first woman to manage a winning Democratic US presidential campaign, and the first person of any gender in three decades to knock off an incumbent. O’Malley Dillon, 47, has shunned credit and most interviews since. So her nondescript current workspace—blank walls, a tiny desk strewn with papers, a small bookshelf holding a jumble of binders and framed family photos—fits her no-nonsense approach. O’Malley Dillon is ferociously focused on reelecting Biden. Gazing out the window would be a useless distraction. “You have to keep in perspective what’s at stake because every second I waste is a second that we could lose the thing that matters most to me, which is a future for my kids,” she tells me.

Her relentlessness is a good thing, because her candidate is running uphill. For months polls have shown Trump beating Biden nationally, though the race remains tight; more important, thanks to our genius electoral college system, is Trump’s advantage in six of the seven battleground states that are likely to be decisive. Things look equally rugged for Biden when you go deeper than the horse race: A majority of Americans believe economic conditions were better under Trump—despite Biden delivering record-low unemployment numbers—and inflation remains stubbornly high. In March the share of voters strongly disapproving of Biden’s job performance reached a new peak, according to a New York Times survey. Many voters under 35 are angered by the administration’s support for Israel’s military offensive in Gaza. And voters of every age group think Biden, 81, is too old to bid for a second term.

The leaders of his reelection team aren’t in denial; they understand they’re facing daunting challenges. The coalition that elected Biden in 2020 has splintered. “We believe that Joe Biden has an important story to sell and has been a historic president,” a senior campaign strategist says. “But that doesn’t mean to say that everyone is going to love him perfectly.” Which may not make for the most stirring political rallying cry. But it underlies the campaign’s methodical drive to raise tens of millions of dollars to assemble a sophisticated operation that will press the fight in both conventional and innovative ways. The plan stretches from boosting Latino turnout in Arizona to winning Michigan—despite the state’s much-hyped “uncommitted” Democratic primary voters—to flipping North Carolina to wooing a meaningful number of Nikki Haley-Republican-primary voters to aggressively educating potential Robert F. Kennedy Jr. voters about his beliefs. For months the campaign has quietly built infrastructure in key states—a foundation that is now allowing it to capitalize on Republican gifts, like the Arizona supreme court’s approval of a near-total ban on abortion. “We know exactly the voters we need to turn out,” a senior campaign operative says, “and we’ve got a plan to do it.”

That confidence flows from data research that assigns probabilities to individual voters. It is also based on a deep roster of human political intelligence, like Quentin Fulks, the principal deputy campaign manager, who was a top aide on Raphael Warnock’s winning Georgia senate reelection campaign over Herschel Walker in 2022, and Julie Chávez Rodríguez, the 46-year-old campaign manager who is a granddaughter of pioneering labor leader César Chávez. “We wanted to make sure we had strong campaign experience, but also really strong lived experience for the communities and voters that we want to reach. So it’s not by default that it’s myself and Quentin running this campaign. That was extremely intentional,” Rodríguez says. “And being able to prioritize our base targets, it’s not the way that most presidentials have been run. They don’t usually invest in doing outreach to communities of color early.”

Yet much of the work of piecing together the strategy and the machinery has occurred in Wilmington, outside the national media spotlight, which has contributed to a perception among many Democrats that the Biden campaign is eerily, delusionally calm. “What scares me to death is they think they’ve proven everyone wrong every time,” a senior Democratic insider says. “They have this outward posture of, ‘We came from nowhere in the 2020 primary, we’re the only ones who beat Trump in the general, so trust us.’ But remember, in the fall of 2020, they sent Biden to Ohio and Kamala Harris to Texas where they had no chance, when they could have been in Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, and Pennsylvania. So let’s not get on too high of a horse.”

Maybe so—though Biden visited and won those four key states four years ago. And up close, it’s clear no one is resting on their horses, or their laurels. The 2024 campaign’s activities are intense and far-reaching, permeated by a deep sense of urgency. “I can certainly feel the weight of what we’re doing,” says Dan Kanninen, who leads the battleground-state effort. “But to be in it gives a measure of purpose that is different than just allowing your anxieties to take you somewhere else.” Biden’s lieutenants have forceful, detailed, logical pushbacks to every possible criticism of the campaign. There’s only one part of the reelection operation that feels unnerving: so much of the victory calculus hinges on voters, once they’ve heard the relevant facts, behaving rationally. That worry is compounded by the stakes. “If we lose this election,” a national Democratic strategist says, “we might not have another one.”

Rob Flaherty rates a private corner office. One of its walls is decorated with images of Biden’s trademark aviator sunglasses in a repeating pattern of green, blue, black, and orange. The opposite wall is dominated by a banner, its black background contrasting with large white letters reading “NOBODY KNOWS ANYTHING.” Flaherty had better know something. His title, deputy campaign manager, doesn’t even hint at the magnitude of his responsibilities. The 32-year-old oversees two crucial aspects of Biden’s campaign: digital strategy and relational organizing. The first role means not simply figuring out how to target a multi-million-dollar pro-Biden online ad campaign, but trying to fight off a fire hose of right-wing attacks and disinformation. Flaherty did this craftily for Biden during the 2020 campaign, particularly in steering an effort to identify “market moving” issues—separating things that had the potential to actually influence voters, like concerns about Biden’s mental fitness, from mere noise, like the Republican obsession with Hunter Biden. In some respects—most notably Gaza and inflation—there are new substantive challenges this time. One major concern hasn’t changed: Biden’s advanced age. “The way you combat the age issue,” Flaherty says, “is, one, he gets out there and addresses it. What you see him doing in his paid [media] right now. And it’s by fighting on the issues that people care about. If we address the fact that they want to see him go and fight for them, the issue goes away pretty quick.”

Yet the online landscape has changed dramatically in four years, with media consumers fractured into ever-more-personalized content silos, many of them hardened against campaign messaging, a shift that seems to benefit Trump. “Voters who do not want to hear about politics never have to,” Flaherty says. “People who are not hearing about politics, they are not trusting of politicians, they’re not trusting the media. So it becomes incumbent on the campaign to think about, how do we reach those people where they are? You have to diversify the way you do paid media, right? You can't just spend 70% on linear broadcast television and hope you’re going to reach folks.”

One of Flaherty’s priorities is reaching tuned-out potential voters. “The voters who we think are pretty much the difference makers in this election, these voters, you have to persuade them to participate,” he says. “This is going to be a back-loaded election for when people start to pay attention. They are largely a younger, more diverse set of people who voted for us last time, who lean Democrat. They hate Trump. They are really hard to reach. And there’s just more of those this time.” A related task is neutralizing the deluge of Republican disinformation. “At the close of any campaign, I know my candidate is in trouble if key parts of the electorate are awash in more negative than positive information about my candidate,” a top Democratic strategist says. “And right now, particularly younger voters of color on social media, they’re hearing more negative than positive information about Joe Biden. How do they turn that?”

Massive spending is part of the answer. But the campaign believes the cash must be spread on a wider array of formats than ever before and in creative ways. So when Biden visited a North Carolina home in March, Flaherty’s team enlisted the family’s 13-year-old son to post a video on TikTok, generating more than five million views across a range of sites, the kind of reach a conventional rally doesn’t produce. The White House has bolstered the president’s online presence by encouraging the work of independent liberal influencers, including Aaron Rupar and Ron Filipkowski, who have driven news cycles by circulating video clips of Trump’s stumbles and incendiary comments. Biden’s team is also investing heavily in first-person testimonial ads from ordinary Americans. “Having elected officials give speeches or be on Sunday talk shows is important,” says Roger Lau, who was Elizabeth Warren’s campaign manager in 2020 and who now works closely with the Biden effort as deputy executive director of the Democratic National Committee. “But finding that nurse in Nevada who can talk about why capping the cost of insulin at 35 bucks a month is important to their families because Filipinos have a much higher rate of type two diabetes than other communities—that kind of video, digital, and social content, it just cuts through in a totally different way.”

Flaherty comes across as ebullient and exhausted, which is understandable given that he’s crafting in-real-life organizing plans at the same time he’s trying to counteract the Laura Loomers of the world online. His digital turf overlaps with his more experimental turf, relational organizing. “You have to get people to share content through their friends and family, trusted messengers,” Flaherty says. “This is important because of what I think is the second trend that is different from ’20. In 2022, half of the content shared on Instagram was in private. So if you’re running a digital strategy that is aimed just at reaching people in their feeds, you’re missing where a lot of conversation on the internet is happening.”

[...] While Biden’s Gaza-fueled problems with younger voters have likely been overstated, the conventional wisdom has been understating the damage the war could cause the president with swing voters—and not because of their allegiances to Israel or Palestine. The conflict itself fueled a sense that the world remains volatile, though it was still happening at a distance, literally and politically. Now campus skirmishes have made the mess domestic, and the president’s brand is all about delivering calm. “Biden has got to be seen as the reasonable guy who gets shit done, where Trump is a madman,” a top Democratic strategist says. “You can’t do that when you’ve got chaos on the southern border or chaos on campuses.”

The Biden administration has put together a compelling record in some big-picture ways, including the revival of the economy, the defense of Ukraine, and advances in the battle against climate change. The campaign’s challenge is to translate the president’s record into gains that voters recognize in their everyday lives. “If we’re able to frame the president’s accomplishments in the face of Republican extremist obstructionism,” Tyler says, “you actually have a fantastic story to tell. I mean, I’ll talk about Black folks, for example, right? Since before the pandemic, Black wealth is up 60%, highest rate of small business growth for Black-owned businesses in a generation, cutting Black child poverty in half through the child tax credit before MAGA Republicans ripped it away, which Joe Biden is going to bring back in a second term to make permanent.”

There are also large vulnerabilities in Biden’s first-term record: the suffocatingly high price of housing and the immigration crisis, to pick two. But presidential elections are weird, unique animals that more often turn on personality than on policy, on what Americans are feeling they need in the White House as much as what might objectively be best for the country. Mood is a powerful force in national elections, and the Biden campaign has identified an intriguing, and ominous, headwind. “We don’t like to talk about the fact that COVID still has an impact,” a senior strategist says. “It’s easy to kind of be nostalgic for a time before COVID, to remember, ‘Oh, well, the economy was better, or I felt like prices were better.’ And you don’t hear Trump every day. People are not viscerally feeling how they felt when he was a leader, because he’s been silent for lots of reasons. So we have a lot of work to do. Now, it just so happens that Trump says such crazy stuff all the time that we have ample opportunity.” Everyone at Biden HQ is well aware of the possible consequences, both for the country and for themselves, of Trump winning and turning the craziness into policy. “The people behind him are very well organized,” a Biden campaign operative says. “It can feel like an abstraction, but actually there are people I know, and myself, who would be targets.”

Vanity Fair has a story on the Biden campaign’s re-election team that is navigating tough headwinds to get Joe Biden re-elected.

[mariacallous]

Approximately 10% of American voters in swing states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — are still unsure about their choice for November’s presidential election, and according to polls, the economy will be the key deciding factor for this group. Although all economic indicators — GDP, unemployment, inflation, stock market indices — suggest a robust improvement since Joe Biden took office in January 2021, public perception is quite the opposite: the majority of Americans believe the country is in a recession, and that unemployment is reaching record-high levels. This peculiar public sentiment has been termed a “vibecession” — a feeling of economic malaise that does not in fact conform to reality. This perception is largely influenced by the fact that economic growth is primarily occurring in Republican states, where the population is influenced by Trump's rhetoric about the economy's weakness under Biden. It remains to be seen whether this sentiment will shift in time for the election.

The cohort of undecided American voters notably diverges from a larger sample, as revealed in a survey conducted by The Wall Street Journal. Undecided respondents do not strongly identify with either Republicans or Democrats, nor are they heavily focused on contentious partisan issues like immigration, abortion, or gun control. Their primary concern typically revolves around economic results, which serve as their main criteria for candidate selection. Normally, such voters tend to support the incumbent when the economy is thriving and the challenger when it is not. But in 2024, things might not be so simple.

[somethingusefulfromflorida]

People are acting like trump's trial is going to make him more popular and win him another term, but I don't see it. He lost the presidency in 2020 by the exact same margin in the electoral college as he "won" in 2016, and his handpicked candidates consistently lose vital races. Democrats lost the House in 2022, but made gains in the Senate AND flipped multiple state legislatures AND held all the swing state Secretary of State and Attorney General seats. Michigan flipped both houses blue, Pennsylvania flipped one house blue, Wisconsin flipped their Supreme Court, Dems held their own in Arizona and Georgia, all because voters were sick of trump and didn't want his cronies to be in charge anymore. Florida is a lost cause and Virginia appears to be trending that way, but trump isn't nearly as popular as the media wants everyone to think he is. He always says "I got more votes than any sitting president in history, almost 75 million," which is only impressive on paper if you don't know that the population grows, and he leaves out the fact that Joe Biden holds the record for most votes ever, over 80 million. I'm not gonna stand here and say that 2024 is going to be a blue wave by any stretch of the imagination. I think we're gonna lose the Senate which is the single most important thing about the following presidential term (JUDGES!), but the House is competitive and Kevin McCarthy is unpopular, and Biden is at an advantage because he's stable and hasn't dropped the ball nearly as hard as trump did in 2020 (covid and the George Floyd protests and skyrocketing unemployment, 2020 felt like the apocalypse).

I think 2024 will be closer than 2020, but I don't think the republicans will be able to win. Voters rebuked them across the board in 2022 (the House was gerrymandered in their favor, including illegal maps in Ohio and North Carolina that were struck down by their respective Supreme Courts but which the legislatures used anyway, and yet they only gained 9 seats in what was expected to be a 30 or 40 seat blowout). I'm optimistic, though not enthusiastic, and I'm ready for disappointment, but I honestly think trump is going to get his ass handed to him. He will try to run again in 2028 (though he'll probably be a convicted felon by then), and even though he'll have been responsible for republican losses in 2018, 2020, 2022, and 2024, magats will still worship at his feet. Federal prosecution will not make him more popular with independents, and he doesn't have any important secretaries of state in his pocket to deny the vote to Democrats. The only people stupid enough to believe his bullshit and take his side on the documents case are people who are already in his court to begin with.

He is incapable of growing an audience. He's a one-trick pony, he keeps "playing the hits" but people are bored and want new material.

[purplesurveys]

1836

What’s the earliest you’ve ever had to wake up for work? 12:30 AM is my newest record – had a scheduled hike all the way in Batangas two weeks ago and we were set to leave by 2 AM.

Do you use reusable shopping bags to reduce waste? Yes, but not always. I'll sometimes shop unplanned so I won't always have a bag with me.

How many times have you moved? Once in infancy, two times in childhood. The next time I'll do so it'll be for my own place which is kind of crazy to think about!

Where were you going the last time you were a passenger in a car? Church, this morning. We also stopped by Wilcon so my mom could pick up something for the bathroom.

Do you know anyone who has changed their first name? Apparently it's really common for people my age to 'rebrand' and go with different nicknames in school and work, so yes.

Are you nerdy? If so, in what ways? I like professional wrestling, which I would consider nerdy/geeky.

Which one of your senses would you be the most devastated to lose? Sight and touch.

Have you ever dated someone who posted a ton of selfies on social media? I wouldn't say they did.

Do you know anyone who has been on life support, and survived? Not sure. I don't think so.

What scent is the nearest candle? Vanilla.

Have you ever been to Michigan? Nope.

Do your parents have a strong relationship together? Yes. They're toxic at times in ways I don't feel like expounding on, because it makes me sad; but for the most part their marriage has been a very happy one.

When was the last time you attended a religious service of any sort? Sunday mass this morning. It also happens to be Palm Sunday so people were waving those leaves around.

Do you ever feel like you’re sharing too much about yourself online? The fact is that I do lol, but it's only on this part of 'online.' I do keep some kind of wall on my other accounts and focus on my interests.

How many windows are in the room you’re in? None, I'm at the rooftop.

Are you on good or bad terms with your most recent ex? It ended on such emotionless terms that I'd say as far as terms...there aren't any. The whole thing just feels nonexistent, and I have found my peace with viewing the relationship as if it never happened. It's also healthier for me that way.

What was the last necklace you wore? It's silver, with a silver and purple heart charm.

What were you doing 3 hours ago? I was having dinner with my family.

Have you ever read any of Charles Darwin’s works? I don't think I have.

What was the first thing you did after getting out of bed today? I woke up to the sound of the dogs play-wrestling so I went down to see what was up and to play with them for a little bit.

When was the last time you read a newspaper? Safe to assume >4 years ago.

If there was such a thing as a mental health first aid kit, what would you want to be in it? My favorite chips, a reed diffuser, a picture frame of BTS, and a BTS concert DVD hehe.

Is there anyone who always seems to misunderstand everything you say? There used to be.

Do you think there are more dimensions than what we’re able to perceive? Yes.

What is currently on your bathroom counter? We have a cabinet instead of a counter, and in it we have...everything that's supposed to be in the bathroom, basically. The toothbrushes and toothpaste, deodorant, napkins, and a few first aid items.

What was the last carbonated drink you had? Continued from last night. Beer.

Does anyone in your family have schizophrenia? Nope.

What light in your house was the last to have a bulb burn out? One of the bulbs we have in the living room.

What was your favorite book you ever read for a school assignment? Without Seeing the Dawn.

Do you know anyone who’s always on their phone when you’re trying to talk to them? No.

Have you ever been fired? If so, did you get unemployment benefits? I've never been fired.

Do any of your neighbors have loud children? A loud kid who just so happens to be a louder shrieker/crier, yes.

Have you ever been in an abandoned house? I've looked at one from the outside, but didn't go in.

[arpov-blog-blog]

..."It is becomingly increasingly difficult for MAGA to keep pushing the doom and gloom narrative with Americans feeling an economy that has recovered from Covid and is thriving under President Biden.

The Consumer Price Index numbers released Tuesday show signs of continued falling inflation and a healthy economy. The CPI rose a flat 0.1% in November, and inflation is down to 3.1% on the year. Driven largely by a 6% drop in gas prices, the November CPI numbers show inflation is is approaching the target number of 2%. Food prices increased by 0.2%. 

This comes as news that consumer confidence in the economy is rising.

Two surveys released this week show changing attitudes about the economy. The New York Federal Reserve’s November consumer survey released Monday found that consumers expect inflation will be 3.4% over the coming year; a drop of 0.2% from what consumers predicted in October, and the lowest expected level of inflation the survey has seen since April 2021.

The University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey released Friday revealed similar numbers, with the one-year outlook for inflation down to 3.1% from 4.5% in November; the lowest since March 2021. The five-year outlook also moved lower, down to 2.8% from 3.2% the previous month.

This news comes on the heels of the November jobs report which showed the U.S. gained almost 200K jobs, the 35th straight month of job growth, and unemployment fell to 3.7%, defying expectations of economists." 

[foolishpensandidioticink]

About

Hey, I'm Jax and unfortunately, I write fanfiction. I'm 19 and majoring in Disappointing My Parents at Unemployment University Michigan, and I'm creating this blog as a place to write fanfics, obviously. Please be respectful with requests and follow the below guidelines.

Rules/Guidelines

I will not write NSFW for characters who are canonically minors. 'aging up' is creepy as shit.

I will not write for age-inappropriate ships or incestuous ships.

Please do not pressure me to complete requests.

I only write for fandoms I'm familiar with in an attempt to preserve accurate characterization.

You can send me asks that aren't requests

I do oneshots and headcanons

I write both reader inserts and character ships

Fandoms

Harry Potter (Of course)

Attack on Titan

Percy Jackson and the Olympians

Magnus Chase and the Gods of Asgard

Kane Chronicles

Death Note

Wednesday

The Umbrella Academy

Miraculous: Tales of Ladybug and Chat Noir

My Hero Academia

Six of Crows

King of Scars

Shadow and Bone

Demon Slayer

Jujutsu Kaisen

The Folk of the Air

Tales of Arcadia

Don't be shy, I promise I won't bite very hard!