#maybe this is the year Texas has a historic turnout

[mewtatedbunnies]

I voted today!

And there was a huge line

That’s never happened before

[theliberaltony]

via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

Last week, we introduced a method for evaluating Democratic presidential contenders, which focused on their ability to build a coalition among key constituencies within the party. In particular, our method claims there are five essential groups of Democratic voters, which we describe as:

Party Loyalists, who are mostly older, lifelong Democrats who care about experience and electability.

The Left.

Millennials and Friends, who are young, cosmopolitan and social-media-savvy.

Black voters.

And Hispanic voters, who for some purposes can be grouped together with Asian voters.

The goal is for candidates to form a coalition consisting of at least three of the five groups.

I certainly wouldn’t claim that this is the only way to evaluate the field; rather, it’s part of what we hope will be a fairly broad toolkit of approaches that we’ll be applying as we cover the Democratic candidates at FiveThirtyEight over the course of the next 18(!!) months.1 Furthermore, in reality, the various ideological and demographic constituencies within the Democratic Party are more fluid than this analysis implies. Nonetheless, it has influenced my thinking — the coalition-building model has made me more skeptical about the chances for Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden and Amy Klobuchar, for instance, but more bullish about Kamala Harris, Beto O’Rourke and Cory Booker. In this article, I’ll go through a set of 10 leading contenders and map out their potential winning coalitions; we’ll tackle some of the long-shot candidates later on this week.

Let’s start with the man who has led most polls of the Democratic field so far, former Vice President Joe Biden. One lesson from the 2016 Republican primary might be to approach the polls with more humility. If a candidate is ahead in the polls for a sustained period of time — as Trump was for much of late 2015 and early 2016 — maybe we journalists ought to give a certain amount of credit to that, rather than just chalking it up to high name recognition or becoming overly wedded to some theory about how voters are “supposed” to behave.

With that said, there are some trouble signs for Biden. He performs worse among those voters who are paying the most attention to the primary, suggesting that his high name recognition compared to most other candidates is a significant factor in his lead.

And I’m not sure it’s going to be very easy for Biden to expand his coalition beyond the 25 percent or so that he’s getting in polls now. Presumably many of those voters are Party Loyalists, a group for whom he’s a good fit. Biden also has strong ratings among black voters, perhaps in part as a result of his being Barack Obama’s vice president — although his handling of the Anita Hill hearings and hawkish stance on criminal justice issues could give him problems among black voters if his record is subjected to greater scrutiny.

But where does Biden go after that? Could he gain support from The Left? Maybe a bit, but his dalliances with economic populism are more rhetorical than substantive; Biden’s voting record, and it’s a long one, is fairly centrist on economic policy. Could he win over Hispanic voters? Perhaps, as Hispanics sometimes back establishment-friendly nominees (like John Kerry in 2004), but Biden’s home state, Delaware, doesn’t have very many Hispanic voters (it has quite a few African-Americans, by contrast) and I’m less willing to give credit to a politician who hasn’t historically had to develop a relationship with a minority constituency. Still, a (Hillary) Clintonian constituency of Party Loyalists, black and Hispanic voters is probably Biden’s best bet.

When I originally conceived this article, I’d planned on splitting the Democratic electorate into three rather than five groups, which I’d roughly thought of as “white Hillary Democrats,” “white Bernie Democrats” and “nonwhite Democrats.” You can probably see why I abandoned that framework. One of the problems with it is that it groups blacks, Hispanics and other racial minorities together when (as in 2008) they sometimes gravitate toward different candidates.

But another problem is that what I had thought of as “white Bernie voters” is also really two different groups: Voters who belong to The Left and those who belong with the Millennials and Friends group. In 2016, Sanders got slightly more than 40 percent of the Democratic vote nationally, which corresponds to winning clear majorities of those two groups, plus making some inroads with younger black and Hispanic voters later on in the campaign. This year, he’s polling at a little less than 20 percent. The most obvious interpretation is that, while Sanders has held on to much of his support on The Left, millennials were mostly just looking for an alternative to Clinton, and they are now considering abandoning Sanders for younger, flashier alternatives such as Beto O’Rourke and Kamala Harris.

So how does Sanders form a winning coalition? He probably does need the millennials to return to his camp, which might happen if the field narrows and his major competition is, say, Joe Biden — but it would be trickier against a Beto or a Harris or a Cory Booker. (Hence the Beto-Bernie wars.) And finding a third coalition partner is even trickier. Party Loyalists are liable to be bitter over his treatment of Clinton in 2016 and over the fact that Sanders is not actually a Democrat. Even groups such as unions — important bridges between The Left and the establishment — have been hesitant to support Sanders’s candidacy.

As for black and Hispanic voters, maybe Sanders can hope that his weak performance among those groups in 2016 was more a matter of Clinton’s strengths than his own liabilities. Sanders’s favorability ratings are reasonably good among black and Hispanic voters, in fact. But a recent survey of influential women of color found very little support for Sanders — and in contrast to four years ago, he’s now running in a field that will likely contain a number of black and Hispanic candidates. Overall, Sanders looks like a candidate with a high floor but a low ceiling, and one who would probably benefit from the field remaining divided for as long as possible.

Warren has somewhat similar problems to Sanders, including having to build a relationship with black and Hispanic voters after being elected from an extremely white state — and having already made a misstep on issues of racial identity when she took a DNA test to “prove” she had Native American ancestry.

But she potentially has a higher ceiling because she’s more likely to win support from Party Loyalists, given that she’s a Democrat rather than an independent, and that she doesn’t have baggage from 2016. She’s also ever-so-slightly to Sanders’s right in a way that places her closer to the median Democratic voter.

The most likely winning coalition for Warren, in fact, probably involves the three predominately white groups: The Left, Party Loyalists and Millennials and Friends. (One of the things that helps her with millennials is that Warren has a bigger and better social media presence than you might assume.) Her path is tricky; she probably needs Sanders to founder. And that’s before getting into the gender dynamics surrounding her campaign and whether misogyny might hurt her chances. But she has a head start, having been the first of the big names to take official steps toward running and having hired key staffers in Iowa and elsewhere, which could give her more time to figure out a winning approach.

O’Rourke has one of the more obvious three-pronged coalitions: He’d hope to win on the basis of support from Millenials and Friends, Party Loyalists and Hispanics. The groups might support him for somewhat different reasons, and O’Rourke won’t win any of them without a fight, but he has a clearer path than the other Democrats we’ve mentioned so far.

O’Rourke really did help to motivate a surge in young voter turnout in his Texas Senate race last year; voters aged 18-29 were 16 percent of the electorate in 2018 as compared to 13 percent in the previous midterm in 2014. And overall turnout was up 80 percent as compared with 2014. O’Rourke won young voters overwhelmingly, whereas in 2014, Democratic nominee David Alameel had actually lost that group to Republican incumbent John Cornyn. O’Rourke also has one of the better social media presences among the Democratic contenders.

Meanwhile, the Democratic Party establishment has been encouraging O’Rourke to run, presumably because they see him as electable and potentially able to raise gargantuan sums of money for the party. Electability is a fuzzy concept, and one should be careful not to let “electable” become a synonym for “good-looking white guy” and vice versa. With that said, O’Rourke’s performance in Texas was quite strong relative to the partisanship of the state — even though he lost to Ted Cruz (by just under 3 percentage points), it was the best performance for a Democrat in a high-profile statewide Texas race in years. His policy views are a bit squishy, but that could also be an advantage of a sort — the same could be said of Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2016.

There’s liable to be a Big Discussion at some point about Beto’s authenticity among Hispanic voters. O’Rourke has a Hispanic nickname, Beto, but his given first name is Robert and he doesn’t actually have any Hispanic ancestry. With that said, he represented a district in El Paso that is almost 80 percent Hispanic, and he beat an incumbent Hispanic Democrat to first win the seat in 2012. He also won 64 percent of the Hispanic vote against Cruz (who is Cuban-American2), which is pretty good in a state where the Hispanic vote can be more conservative than in other parts of the country. (Alameel won just 47 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2014, by contrast.)

The candidate who looks best according to the coalition-building model is probably not O’Rourke, however. Instead, it’s California Sen. Kamala Harris, who potentially has strength with all five groups.

Harris, who is of mixed Jamaican (black) and Indian descent, was easily the top choice in the survey of influential women of color that I mentioned earlier. So while I don’t automatically want to assume that nonwhite candidates will necessarily win over voters who share their racial background — it took Obama some time to persuade African-Americans to vote for him in 2008 — Harris seems to be off to a pretty good head start. And her coalition not only includes black voters, but also potentially Asian and Hispanic voters. Harris did narrowly lose Hispanic voters to Sanchez, a Hispanic Democrat, in 2016 (while winning handily among Asian voters). But her approval ratings among Hispanic voters are high in California, a state where the group makes up around a third of the electorate.

If black voters and the Hispanic/Asian group constitute Harris’s first two building blocks, she’d then be able to decide which of the three remaining (predominately white) Democratic groups to target to complete her trifecta. And you could make the case for any of the three. Harris polls better among well-informed voters, which could suggest strength among Party Loyalists. She’s young-ish (54 years old) and has over 1 million Instagram followers, which implies potential strength among millennials. (And remember, Democratic millennials highly value racial diversity.) Harris’s worst group — despite a highly liberal, anti-Trump voting record — might actually be The Left, the whitest and most male group, from which she’s drawn occasional criticism for her decisions as a prosecutor and a district attorney.

Overall, however, this is a strong position for Harris. As Slate’s Jamelle Bouie points out, it may actually be a strategic advantage to be a black candidate in this Democratic primary in 2020.

If Harris rates strongly by this system, then it might follow that New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker, who is also black, would look strong as well. Indeed, Booker may be somewhat overlooked by the pundit class. He’s been pretty explicit about the fact that he’s eventually going to run for the nomination. And he scored strong favorability ratings in a recent survey of Iowa voters, although he isn’t yet many voters’ first choice.

With that said, there are a couple of areas in which Booker could fall a bit short of Harris. New Jersey doesn’t have as many Hispanic or Asian voters as California does (and Booker isn’t part Asian, as Harris is). And if The Left has some problems with Harris, it’s liable to have a lot of problems with Booker, who many leftists see as being too close to Wall Street and to big business. Winning on the basis of a coalition of black voters, Party Loyalists and Millennials and Friends is certainly plausible for Booker, but he doesn’t have quite as many options as Harris does.

As I said earlier, I don’t think this five-corners metric is the only way to judge the candidates. And there are other heuristics by which Klobuchar, the Minnesota senator, might better positioned. For instance, if Democrats are looking for a candidate who forms the best contrast to Trump, she has a pretty good case, as a woman from the Midwest who comes across as temperamentally moderate and without a lot of Trumpian bombast.

But I’m not quite sure how she builds a winning coalition. Klobuchar is potentially a near-perfect choice for Party Loyalists, who are liable to see her Midwestern moderation as being highly electable, especially after she won her Senate race by 24 percentage points last year in a state where Trump nearly defeated Clinton. Beyond that, though? Minnesota is a pretty white state, so Klobuchar doesn’t have a lot of practice at appealing to black, Hispanic or Asian voters. Her voting record is fairly moderate — she’s voted with Trump about twice as often as Booker has, for example — so she’s not an obvious fit for The Left. Millennials, perhaps? Her social media metrics so far are paltry — she has just 140,000 Twitter followers, for example — although (not totally unlike Warren) she has a goofy relatability that could translate well to Instagram and so on.

Klobuchar’s chances probably depend more on “The Party Decides” view of the primary than the more voter-centric vision I’ve presented here. In that view, party elites and Party Loyalists are leading indicators for how the rest of the party will eventually vote. One can imagine Klobuchar gaining traction if she performs well in Iowa, for instance. That’s a lot of “ifs,” however, whereas other candidates would seem to have more straightforward paths.

Another Midwestern senator, Ohio’s Sherrod Brown, in some ways has a more obvious route toward building a coalition. Like Klobuchar, he can make some good arguments about electability, having been elected three times in an increasingly red state, potentially making him an appealing choice to Party Loyalists. But he’s also a tried-and-true economic populist, who would be able to build alliances with The Left, and he’s reportedly a top choice among labor unions.

Where Brown might pick up the third group for his coalition is harder to say. Ohio has a reasonably large black vote, so he may be able to appeal to African-American voters. His limited social media presence and rumpled demeanor wouldn’t seem to make him a natural fit for millenials, although rumpledness didn’t stop Sanders from gaining traction with millennials four years ago. Domestic violence allegations against Brown, stemming from his divorce in 1986, have historically not moved the needle against him in his Ohio campaigns but could be a concern to younger voters, especially younger women, if they’re litigated on the national stage.

Gillibrand, who looks increasingly likely to run, sometimes gives the impression of having conducted an analysis like the one you’re reading in this article and taking a color-by-number approach to the Democratic primary. But it can come out a bit awkwardly. On the one hand, Gillibrand has the lowest Trump Score of any senator, meaning that she has opposed Trump more often than any other Democrat in the upper chamber. On the other hand, she once took relatively conservative stances on gun control, immigration and other issues when serving in Congress as a representative from upstate New York. On the one hand, she uses leftist and feminist terms such as “intersectional” to describe how she sees the future. On the other hand, she has ties to Wall Street (as many New York Democrats do).

Gillibrand’s most natural path might be to start with Party Loyalists and build out a coalition from there. But her calls for Sen. Al Franken to resign — issued after several women accused him of groping them — reportedly triggered a backlash among some donor-class Democrats, who [warning, editorial comment ahead] apparently don’t care how stupid they look for blaming a woman for a man’s #MeToo problems.

With all that said, Gillibrand potentially has a reasonably high ceiling. In New York state, she has high favorability ratings among nonwhite voters and an especially large gender gap in how voters view her. So if she isn’t getting a lot of buzz among white male Democratic pundits, you should be a little bit wary about concluding that the lack of buzz is representative of the broader Democratic coalition.

We’re getting toward the end of what you might consider the top couple of tiers of Democratic candidates. And I’m not quite sure whether to consider Castro, the former mayor of San Antonio and former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, as one of the frontrunners or as more of a long-shot candidate. In the recent Selzer/Des Moines Register poll of Iowa, almost two-thirds of likely Democratic caucusgoers didn’t have an opinion about Castro either way. And neither his tenure as mayor nor his job as HUD Secretary necessarily required him to weigh in on the major issues of the day. So for better or worse, he’s starting out with a relatively blank slate and a malleable policy platform.

Castro does have the advantage of being potentially the only Hispanic candidate in the race. He’s a good speaker, having given the keynote address at the 2012 Democratic convention. And he’s been relatively explicit about his desire to run — he may even officially declare his intentions in the next few days. A coalition of Hispanics, Party Loyalists (if he can persuade party elites about the importance of the Hispanic vote) and Millenials and Friends might be Castro’s best option. As it happens, that’s also O’Rourke’s coalition, so the two Texans could represent a problem for one another.

There’s about an 80 percent chance that the Democratic nominee will be one of the 10 candidates I just mentioned, according to betting markets. Still, that does leave some room for a long shot, and there are literally dozens of other Democrats who are contemplating a presidential bid. There are also some candidates, such as Georgia’s Stacey Abrams, who don’t seem especially likely to run, but who could be formidable if they did. We’ll cover some of those other Democrats in “lightning round” fashion in a third and final installment of this series later this week.

[patriotsnet]

Do Republicans Need To Vote On Super Tuesday

New Post has been published on https://www.patriotsnet.com/do-republicans-need-to-vote-on-super-tuesday/

Do Republicans Need To Vote On Super Tuesday

What Is Super Tuesday And Why Is It Important Here’s What You Need To Know

What You Need To Know Before Voting This Super Tuesday

Fifteen contests will be held across the country.

Super Tuesday: Top things to know

There is no national primary voting day, but Super Tuesday is as close as it comes. The end of the day’s voting will bring major delegate allocations and answer some of the questions looming over the Democratic primary.

Fifteen contests will be held across the nation on Tuesday. Polls close at various times beginning at 7 p.m. and extending until 11 p.m., though it is unlikely a winner will be projected in every state before the close of the night.

Here’s what you need to know about the largest day of voting in primary season:

‘we Sent A Message’: Buttigieg Ends Historic Presidential Bid

Warren is teetering around the delegate threshold percentage, too, with most polls conducted before South Carolina. Does she get above 15%? Does she pull from Sanders? Does Biden gain momentum from South Carolina?

A wild card is black voters. There were no exit polls in 2016; 2008 exit polls showed black voters were only 7% of the electorate. But the California Democratic Party estimates that African Americans are about 16% of the party. Do they turn out? Depending on which estimate winds up being correct could determine if Biden makes a dent in the state.

This will also be the first significant measure of Asian Americans in this election. They were 8% of the electorate in 2008, and the California Democratic Party estimates they are 10% now.

Do You Have To Vote For The Party You’re Registered With

Your state may give you the opportunity to declare your political party affiliation on your voter registration card.

You do not have to vote for the party youre registered with, in a federal, state, or local general election.

But in a presidential primary or caucus, depending on your states rules, you may have to vote for the political party youve registered with.

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Candidates Who Have Suspended Their Campaigns But Their Names Still On The Virginia Ballot

The following nine candidates are still on the ballot in Virginia, even though they have suspended their campaign. The deadline for the Virginia Democratic Party to provide a list of candidates to appear on the ballot was in December 2019, before these candidates ended their campaigns.

Cory Booker;

Booker dropped out of the Presidential race in January.

Im proud I never compromised my faith in these principles during this campaign, Booker wrote. And maybe Im stubborn, but Ill never abandon my faith in what we can accomplish when we join together.

Booker has served in the U.S. Senate since 2013, representing New Jersey. Previously he was Mayor of Newark from 2006 to 2013. He was also a tenant lawyer and city councilman.According to his website, he says his main accomplishments in the Senate have been helping to write and pass the First Step Act, a bipartisan criminal justice reform bill, and co-sponsoring the Equality Act.

While running for President, Booker unveiled his policy proposals, including decriminalization of marijuana and fighting to end the War on Drugs, fighting for Medicare for All, expanding the Earned Income Tax Credit, and expanding protections for DREAMers.

Michael Bennet;

Bennet suspended his campaign on Tuesday, February 11.

Bennett was appointed in 2008 as a U.S. Senator for Colorado, ;He won elections in 2010 and 2016. Before his time on Capitol Hill, he was the Superintendent of Denver Public Schools for four years.

Pete Buttigieg;

Amy Klobuchar;

What Is Super Tuesday

Its the day when the greatest number of US states cast their votes to nominate presidential candidates, who will eventually compete for the White House in Novembers general election.

It is the biggest day in the US election calendar apart from election day itself. The candidates have each held hundreds of meet-and-greet events, travelled thousands of miles, eaten a lot of junk food, and their campaigns have spent hundreds of millions of dollars to get them to this make-or-break moment.

In 2020, Super Tuesday falls on 3 March. Both Democrats and Republicans will be voting, but because Donald Trump does not face any serious challengers, all eyes will be on the Democratic contest.

The early voting states Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina have all had their say over the past month, with Bernie Sanders emerging as the possible national frontrunner in the race for the Democratic nomination.

But now, 14 states across the country Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont and Virginia as well as one US territory and Democrats abroad will cast their votes on the same day.

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Who’s On The Ballot On Super Tuesday

The five remaining Democratic candidates for president will be on the ballot in every Super Tuesday state and territory.

They are former Vice President Joe Biden, former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg, Rep. Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii, Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts.

On the Republican side, former Massachusetts Gov. Bill Weld is hoping to be an alternative to the incumbent Trump.

Additionally, some ballots will include lesser-known candidates and a few who dropped out of the race after registering to be on the ballot, like former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg and businessman Tom Steyer, both of whom suspended their campaigns over the weekend after weak showings in the South Carolina Primary. Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota dropped out of the race less than 24 hours before voters headed to the polls in 14 states.

Buttigieg, Klobuchar and another former candidate, former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke, all endorsed Biden on Monday.

Whos Running for President in 2020?

The field of Democratic 2020 presidential candidates is narrowing. Here’s who is still in the race.

Names And Prior Election Cycles

The name Super Duper Tuesday is a reference to earlier Super Tuesdays, the dates on which the largest number of presidential primaries took place. The term Super Duper Tuesday has been repeatedly re-coined to refer to even more states holding their primaries on this date, with the first recorded usage so far found dating back to 1985. In 2004, Super Tuesday fell on March 2.In 2004, the equivalent cohort of primaries, on February 3, 2004, was called Mini-Tuesdayâonly seven states held their primaries on that date.

On June 3, 2007, the name Tsunami Tuesdayâconveying the potential of the large number of simultaneous primaries to completely change the political landscapeâwas mentioned on Meet the Press during a round-table discussion with presidential campaign strategists James Carville, Bob Shrum, , and Mike Murphy.

Super Tuesday in 2008 occurred during and on the day of the New York Giants Super Bowl victory parade. Voting was hampered in several states by a major tornado outbreak that killed 57 people, and competed with the primaries for the news.

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Why Host These Primaries

One reason: Biden is not technically the nominee;until a majority of delegates have voted to make it so at the Democratic convention.;

Some states, like Connecticut and New York, allow primaries to be canceled if there is only one candidate remaining on the ballot. However, New York tried this,;and a federal judge in Manhattan;ruled;the state;must hold its;primary, which is on June 23.

Additionally, while the presidential primaries are the highest-ranking contest in which citizens can vote Tuesday, there are;down-ballot primaries for House and Senate seats or runoffs, as well.

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How Do You Choose

County Officials Want Answers After Voters Waited Hours To Vote Super Tuesday

When you show up to your polling location, youll decide whether you want a Democratic or Republican primary ballot.

But after choosing a side in the primary, you have to stay in that lane through the runoff. You cant vote Republican in the primary election and then participate in a runoff election between top Democratic candidates.

That said, voting in a primary does not commit you to vote for a particular candidate in the general election. You can vote for either partys candidate in the November election.

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So How Does That Compare

Voters who live in states with closed primaries are required to register with a political party in order to vote in that partys primary. If you wanted to vote in the Republican primary in New York, you have to register as a Republican. Oftentimes, third-party voters are locked out of the Republican and Democratic primaries. But some states, like Oklahoma, are a bit of a hybrid and let independent voters choose which primaries they want to participate in.

Why Did House Democrats Underperform Compared To Joe Biden

Reddit

The results of the 2020 elections pose several puzzles, one of which is the gap between Joe Bidens handsome victory in the presidential race and the Democrats disappointing performance in the House of Representatives. Biden enjoyed an edge of 7.1 million votes over President Trump, while the Democrats suffered a loss of 13 seats in the House, reducing their margin from 36 to just 10.

Turnout in the 2018 mid-term election reached its highest level in more than a century. Democrats were fervently opposed to the Trump administration and turned out in droves. Compared to its performance in 2016, the partys total House vote fell by only 2%. Without Donald Trump at the head of the ticket, Republican voters were much less enthusiastic, and the total House vote for Republican candidates fell by nearly 20% from 2016. Democratic candidates received almost 10 million more votes than Republican candidates, a margin of 8.6%, the highest ever for a party that was previously in the minority. It was, in short, a spectacular year for House Democrats.

To understand the difference this Democratic disadvantage can make, compare the 2020 presidential and House results in five critical swing states.

Table 1: Presidential versus House results

Arizona

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These States Are Also Holding Gop Primaries

The race between the five remaining Democratic presidential candidates may be the top primaries on Super Tuesday, but they arent the only elections happening.

On Tuesday, Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont and Virginia will hold primaries for the Democratic presidential nominee.

American Samoa will also hold a Democratic caucus.

WHAT IS SUPER TUESDAY? WHAT TO KNOW ABOUT THE UPCOMING PRIMARIES

Among those states, Alabama, Arkansas, California, North Carolina and Texas will also hold Congressional primaries and other elections for both Republicans and Democrats.

A voter is pictured marking his ballot at a voting center in Sacramento, Calif. in February.

In fact, former U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions is facing several other Republican candidates in Alabamas Senate race.

SUPER TUESDAY SEES HOLLYWOOD RALLY AROUND JOE BIDEN

Republicans will be able to vote for their presidential nominee in most of the 14 Super Tuesday states.

In Minnesota and Maine, President Trump is unopposed on the ballot, according to the Duluth News Tribune and the Bangor Daily News. In other states, Trump faces several opponents who arent strong contenders.

To receive the nomination, Trump must win 1,276 delegates out of 2,551 at the Republican National Convention in August. Because he is an incumbent, it is likely he will receive the delegates and the nomination as well.

Candidates And Election Results On Super Tuesday

This section contains the candidate lists and election results for each super Tuesday primary. Results will be updated as they become available. Click on the state’s or territory’s name for more information.

Alabama Democratic presidential primary on March 3, 2020

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Total votes: 452,093 ⢠Total pledged delegates: 52

Alabama Republican presidential primary on March 3, 2020

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American Samoa Democratic presidential caucus on March 3, 2020

Â;

Arkansas Democratic presidential primary on March 3, 2020

Â;

Total votes: 229,120 ⢠Total pledged delegates: 31

Arkansas Republican presidential primary on March 3, 2020

Â;

California Democratic presidential primary on March 3, 2020

Â;

Total votes: 5,784,364 ⢠Total pledged delegates: 415

California Republican presidential primary on March 3, 2020

Â;

Total votes: 2,471,580 ⢠Total pledged delegates: 172

California Green presidential primary on March 3, 2020

Â;

Total votes: 11,612 ⢠Total pledged delegates: 0

California Libertarian presidential primary on March 3, 2020

Â;

Total votes: 28,535 ⢠Total pledged delegates: 0

California American Independent presidential primary on March 3, 2020

Â;

Total votes: 56,568 ⢠Total pledged delegates: 0

California Peace and Freedom presidential primary on March 3, 2020

Â;

Colorado Democratic presidential primary on March 3, 2020

Â;

Total votes: 960,128 ⢠Total pledged delegates: 67

Colorado Republican presidential primary on March 3, 2020

Â;

Maine Democratic presidential primary on March 3, 2020

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History Of Super Tuesday

The prominence of Super Tuesday in presidential primary elections begin with the 1984 election and continue to take shape in 1988. During some presidential years, there can be more than one voting Tuesday in March which can be called Super Tuesday.

In 1984, there were 3 Tuesdays which were called Super Tuesday due to the number of states involved.

In 2008, many states tried moving their primary elections earlier in the process which created a scenario where February 5, 2008, was considered the first Super Tuesday of the 2008 cycle.

In 2020, March 10 and March 17 may also be considered Super Tuesday voting days with a handful of states holding primaries.

Related:

When Is Super Tuesday And What Is It Exactly

Super Tuesday is Tuesday, March 3. It is the most important day on the Democratic primary calendar because there are so many delegates up for grabs.

When exactly is Super Tuesday, what makes it so Super and how did we even get to a place where we have a day with that title?

Heres what you need to know:

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Clinton Could See Advantage

On the other side of the aisle, the Democratic Super Tuesday clash is not going to force either of the candidates out of the race however it ends.

But it could hand a clear advantage to Clinton as she seeks to exploit the Southern advantage that her campaign has long argued makes it impossible for Sanders to win the nomination.

The former secretary of state will be looking to engineer a sweep of the Deep South, Virginia and Texas and to also be competitive in states where Sanders, a Vermont senator, looks to have his best chance.

That could allow Clinton to build up a lead in delegates before the race heads to Northern and Midwestern states where the Sanders message of an economy rigged against American workers could provide her with a more irksome challenge.

Clintons huge win in South Carolina on Saturday was based on a huge outpouring from African-American voters.

What To Know About Voting In Mass On Super Tuesday

Trump Turns His Attacks On A Resurgent Biden After Super Tuesday | The 11th Hour | MSNBC

Tuesday, March 3 is not your average Tuesday; its Super Tuesday, where Massachusetts joins 13 other states, American Samoa and Democrats living abroad in voting in the presidential primary. Two of those states are Texas and California, making the day a potentially decisive one for the Democrats running for president.

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Make Or Break For Cruz

For Cruz, his win-or-go-home moment is now.

If Cruz doesnt win Texas, it is game over for him, said Phillip Stutts, a Republican political consultant. Rubio doesnt have to win, but Cruz has to.

Trumps big advantage going into Super Tuesday is that his opposition remains divided.

Cruz, Rubio and Kasich in some states are dividing up the anti-Trump vote between them, meaning no single candidate can unite opposition to Trump.

Right now, they are all fighting each other while Donald Trump wraps up delegates. Thats a problem it needs to be a two-man race, said Stutts.

For instance, in Virginia, Trump leads with 41% while Rubio is at 27%, Cruz is at 14% and both Kasich and former neurosurgeon Ben Carson have 7% each, according to a Monmouth University poll last week.

And in Massachusetts, its Kasich who is inadvertently helping Trump sitting tied in a WBUR poll with Rubio at 19% well behind Trump at 40%.

Even if Trump does sweep the field on Super Tuesday, his nomination will not be assured, however, because in the GOP, all states that vote before March 15 must divide delegates among the competing candidates based on their share of the vote, as long as they reach certain thresholds in some states.

Cruzs team is confident, however, that their boss can rewrite the political narrative Tuesday.

Also Check: Are There More Republicans Or Democrats In The Senate

[diaspora9ja]

How Biden navigated pandemic politics to win the White House – The Denver Post

WILMINGTON, Del. — Joe Biden was recent off profitable the Michigan main and successfully capturing the Democratic presidential nomination, a prize he’d looked for the higher a part of three many years. As a substitute of plotting a technique to construct momentum, he was considering an abrupt halt.

He gathered his senior workforce in a convention room on the nineteenth flooring of his marketing campaign’s Philadelphia headquarters, the kind of in-person assembly that will quickly be deemed a public well being danger. A former surgeon common and Meals and Drug Administration commissioner joined on speakerphone.

Because the coronavirus started to blow up throughout america that March, Biden requested a query that will finally information the marketing campaign’s considering for months: “What ought to I be modeling?”

The well being consultants beneficial the 77-year-old Biden step away from campaigning as quickly as doable, each for his security and that of workers and supporters. Biden agreed. He determined that he and each workers member would work at home beginning that weekend. All discipline places of work could be closed.

He wouldn’t return to in-person campaigning for 174 days.

It was a choice with out precedent in trendy American politics. Barack Obama and John McCain returned to Washington within the ultimate weeks of the 2008 marketing campaign to answer that 12 months’s monetary collapse, however solely briefly. In an period when voters are accustomed to seeing their presidential candidates continuously, the concept of an entire withdrawal was unthinkable.

That was very true for Biden, whose tactile strategy to politics is known.

“It was a tough name,” mentioned Jake Sullivan, a senior Biden adviser. “If there’s no pandemic, he will get an opportunity to get out and do what he does, which is retail campaigning, assembly folks the place they’re, having the chance to take a seat with people and converse to crowds and stroll down the road. That’s what he would have most popular, clearly.”

For Biden, who has been elected the forty sixth president of america, maybe no determination was extra consequential to his victory, making it doable to flip states resembling Arizona and Wisconsin, the place coronavirus infections and hospitalizations spiked the week of the election. Nonetheless, the cautious strategy prompted ridicule from President Donald Trump, who continuously teased Biden for “hiding in his basement” and returned to giant in-person occasions a lot prior to his rival, and with far fewer precautions.

Some Democrats additionally apprehensive. A number of state celebration chairs and down-ballot candidates privately urged the marketing campaign to renew in-person occasions and canvassing. Texas Democratic Chairman Gilberto Hinojosa warned that Latino turnout may endure. The shortage of non-public outreach has been blamed for contributing to Biden’s poor displaying with Latinos in Florida, a battleground that Trump carried.

However Biden refused to alter course, defining himself early on as a accountable foil to Trump, somebody who may make tough selections and function one thing of a job mannequin to a rustic dealing with a historic set of crises.

It was a theme Biden would return to repeatedly within the months forward as thousands and thousands of individuals misplaced their jobs, the most important protest motion because the civil rights period bloomed in response to police killings of Black folks, and Trump threatened central components of American democracy by refusing to decide to a peaceable switch of energy if he misplaced.

This account of Biden’s rise to the presidency is predicated on interviews with greater than a dozen individuals who maintain senior positions within the Biden and Trump campaigns together with strategists and donors in every celebration. Many spoke on the situation of anonymity to debate the turbulent marketing campaign with candor.

All of them agree on one factor: The coronavirus basically reshaped the race.

• • •

Within the early hours of Friday, Oct. 2, a senior official on the Republican Nationwide Committee texted a colleague with a dire message in regards to the destiny of Trump’s marketing campaign: It was hopeless.

The president had simply introduced that he and his spouse, Melania, had examined optimistic for the coronavirus, becoming a member of the 7 million Individuals already contaminated. By the top of the day, Trump could be taken to Walter Reed Nationwide Navy Medical Heart on Marine One, the brief helicopter trip over the Washington skyline captured on reside tv.

Trump’s sickness introduced critical medical considerations and raised alarm in regards to the stability of the U.S. authorities. At 74, Trump was at a better danger of significant issues from the virus. He refused to quickly cede energy to Vice President Mike Pence as he recovered.

“I talked to him that evening. I talked to him the entire hospitalization,” mentioned GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, one among Trump’s closest allies in Washington. “Friday evening, he wasn’t feeling good.”

Trump’s an infection was each a shocking twist and completely predictable. He’d been cavalier in regards to the virus for months, portray Democrats as reactionaries utilizing the pandemic to remove particular person rights. He mocked mask-wearing suggestions from scientists and returned to his trademark rallies, packing 1000’s of largely unmasked supporters collectively, typically over the objection of native well being officers.

He held large-scale occasions on the South Garden of the White Home, together with the introduction of Supreme Court docket nominee Amy Coney Barrett lower than per week earlier than his analysis.

Maybe the largest shock was that Trump hadn’t contracted the virus sooner.

After three nights within the hospital, Trump, who was nonetheless infectious, staged a dramatic return to the White Home. Simply in time for the night newscasts on the foremost networks, the previous actuality tv star climbed the South Portico steps, turned to the cameras and eliminated his masks to declare “I really feel good.” He entered the White Home, the place aides had been seen milling in regards to the Blue Room, with out sporting a face masking.

The transfer, lower than a month earlier than Election Day, was designed to point out a president in management. It additionally threatened his relationship with the official wing of his celebration. On Capitol Hill, Republicans maintained their public assist of Trump, desperate to keep away from enraged tweets that might threaten their political futures.

However on the RNC, frustration was constructing that Trump was lacking apparent alternatives.

Celebration officers believed Trump may have been on observe to win as a lot as 60% of the vote had he taken a extra empathetic strategy to the pandemic. As a substitute, he adopted a combative and dismissive angle towards the science that guided most of his selections within the election’s ultimate weeks.

The celebration questioned Trump’s spending and messaging. The marketing campaign spent untold thousands and thousands on aggressive advertisements resembling WWE commercials blanketing TV, however none of them moved the needle. The advertisements had been in lots of cases accepted by Trump personally and aired on stations in Washington, focused to an viewers of 1 — the president — in a closely Democratic metropolis.

By early October, the RNC had had sufficient of the Trump marketing campaign’s scattered message and determined to supply its personal ads providing a extra sober message on well being care. The message examined higher than something the Trump marketing campaign had performed beforehand.

Regardless of their public confidence, Trump’s personal workers appeared more and more conscious of the upcoming loss. Within the ultimate weeks of the marketing campaign, White Home workers places of work started rotating in aides who had not but been on Air Power One or not as steadily as others, to offer them that have whereas they nonetheless had the prospect.

Trump himself was grappling together with his destiny in public.

“How the hell can we be tied?” he mentioned at a rally in Carson Metropolis, Nevada.

• • •

Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders knew his White Home ambitions had been over. Biden assumed a commanding lead within the Democratic main by late March and the pandemic dashed any hopes of a comeback — or perhaps a spirited trade of concepts that might final till the summer time conference.

However earlier than he exited the race, the progressive icon needed vital coverage concessions on well being care and schooling.

Sanders knew that Biden wouldn’t conform to assist “Medicare for All.” The previous vp had aggressively run towards it throughout within the main. However Sanders believed he may get Biden to conform to decrease the age for Medicare eligibility.

Sanders needed Biden to drop the age to 55 from the present 65. Senior workers from either side hammered out a compromise, which was later sealed throughout a non-public dialog between Sanders and Biden. Just a few days after Sanders formally stepped apart, Biden introduced that he supported reducing the Medicare age to 60.

“Based mostly on the calls that the senator had with the vp, I believe there was confidence they had been critical about making an attempt to have frequent floor — that progressives wouldn’t solely be concerned within the electoral course of but in addition governing,” mentioned Jeff Weaver, Sanders’ chief adviser.

For a lot of Democrats, the scars of Sanders’ 2016 main battle towards Hillary Clinton had by no means actually healed. Some argued Sanders didn’t do sufficient to assist Clinton, damaging her within the common election towards Trump. Progressives countered that the celebration didn’t take Sanders critically and labored to thwart him.

Biden’s Medicare concession was an necessary step in constructing belief between the wings of the celebration. The connection was additional solidified after Biden agreed to type a number of coverage committees that featured high-profile figures from opposing factions.

Among the many members on Biden’s local weather committee: former Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts and New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, one among Sanders’ most vocal supporters. Biden didn’t difficulty the invitation to Ocasio-Cortez personally, however was absolutely on board with bringing her onto the panel.

She’d go on to develop into a constant advocate for the 77-year-old institution determine’s election, a stark distinction to the 2016 dynamics Clinton confronted from the left flank.

• • •

Trump out of the blue had a possibility to divert consideration from the pandemic.

A spherical of typically violent unrest exploded in Kenosha, Wisconsin, following the police capturing of Jacob Blake, an unarmed Black man, in August.

Some giant cities contended with remoted cases of unrest throughout the summer time as a part of a broader motion towards racial injustice and police violence towards Black Individuals. However the occasions in Kenosha appeared completely different: The unrest was spreading to smaller cities and in a premier swing state, no much less.

Trump had been roundly criticized after largely peaceable protesters had been forcibly faraway from a avenue close to the White Home in June. However Kenosha fueled his name for “legislation and order,” the mantra championed by presidential candidates Richard Nixon and George Wallace in 1968.

Biden’s workforce apprehensive that his constant lead in crucial Higher Midwest states may deteriorate if Trump’s attraction to the fears of white voters resonated. The give attention to Kenosha peaked simply as Trump hosted the Republican Nationwide Conference, drawing pretty optimistic critiques for delivering a program geared toward increasing his political coalition.

“It was a second that might have gone sideways,” mentioned Biden deputy marketing campaign supervisor Kate Bedingfield. “We made a strategic determination to take it head-on.”

On the very day he returned to campaigning after almost six months at house, Biden delivered a fiery speech in Pennsylvania asking voters in the event that they actually believed they had been safer underneath Trump’s management.

Biden highlighted the pandemic’s mounting demise toll — greater than 180,000 Individuals at the moment — and blamed Trump for inflicting the divisions that ignited the unrest within the first place.

“He can’t cease the violence as a result of for years he’s fomented it,” Biden charged.

The direct assault on Trump’s “legislation and order” messaging was amplified by Democrats throughout the nation who adopted Biden’s lead. Inside a matter of weeks, any momentum that Trump appeared to have popping out of his conference was forgotten.

• • •

“That was embarrassing for the nation.”

Instantly after his first presidential debate towards Trump, Biden shared his disgust about his opponent’s efficiency with household and senior workers in a maintain room backstage the place they dissected probably the most chaotic 90 minutes in trendy presidential politics.

Biden lengthy believed that the opening debate on Sept. 29 could possibly be a possibility for Trump to reshape the race, and Biden ready accordingly. Biden and his workforce spent weeks preparing.

Nobody was extra meticulous than senior adviser Bob Bauer, a White Home counsel underneath Obama who had performed Sanders throughout Biden’s main debate apply classes and agreed to embrace the position of Trump.

Like a soccer coach getting ready for a Tremendous Bowl opponent, Bauer watched lots of of hours of tape on Trump, finding out each main and debate efficiency from his 2016 marketing campaign, and nearly each rally and information convention within the 4 years since.

By the point Bauer and Biden stood behind makeshift podiums for his or her first full 90-minute mock debate inside Biden’s house in Wilmington, Delaware, Bauer had mastered the president’s type, his intonations, gestures and, maybe most necessary, the precise assaults Trump was more than likely to make use of and the way he would ship them.

Bauer was ruthless within the non-public classes, leaning into deeply private assaults about Biden’s household, his determination to step away from campaigning and the notion that he could not have the bodily or psychological power to function president.

But no quantity of preparation may really put together Biden for what he confronted when the true second got here.

With greater than 73 million folks watching, a belligerent Trump badgered Biden and moderator Chris Wallace with a ceaseless flood of interruptions that rendered the high-profile debate virtually unwatchable. Biden didn’t have any notable stumbles, however he misplaced his persistence at instances and slapped at Trump with unplanned insults.

“Will you shut up, man?” the Democrat mentioned at one level.

The road would later encourage one of many marketing campaign’s bestselling T-shirts.

Within the maintain room afterward, Biden gathered together with his spouse, his sister Valerie Biden Owens and a few senior aides. They believed Biden had clearly bested his opponent, however he was involved that Trump had debased the talk course of itself, one thing he thought-about a sacred establishment in U.S. politics.

“It’s disappointing that the president of america would act like that on the talk stage,” Biden instructed them.

• • •

In the long run, nothing Trump may say or do distracted voters from his elementary incapability to manage the pandemic — and even take it critically because the demise toll surged previous 232,000 Individuals on the eve of the election.

As Biden stayed laser-focused on the well being risk, Trump and his high lieutenants fought to persuade Individuals that the pandemic was virtually over. 5 days earlier than Election Day, Donald Trump Jr. mentioned on Fox Information that coronavirus deaths had dropped to “virtually nothing.”

That very same day, america reported greater than 90,000 new confirmed COVID-19 infections, one other single-day report. The day after Election Day, greater than 100,000 Individuals examined optimistic for the primary time.

Nonetheless, the president saved on mocking Biden’s cautiousness.

“Once you’re president of america, you’ll be able to’t lock your self right into a basement,” Trump instructed 1000’s of Pennsylvania supporters crammed into an outside venue, most with out masks, the weekend earlier than the election.

Regardless of the big crowds, folks near Trump had been conscious that his presidency was hanging by a thread.

The president boarded Air Power One in Miami to begin his ultimate day of journey seemingly in a foul temper. Holding a crimson MAGA hat, he provided a delicate wave to reporters however didn’t do a customary wave for cameras on the high of the steps.

On the first of 5 occasions that day, he wasn’t displaying a lot confidence when requested about Wisconsin, the place coronavirus spiked to a brand new report excessive on Election Day: “I may lose it, I may win it,” Trump mentioned.

Biden, too, was on edge as he watched election returns at house in Wilmington that originally confirmed a a lot nearer race than pre-election polls had urged. However he turned more and more assured because the vote counting stretched into the weekend.

He was sitting in his yard together with his spouse having fun with an unseasonably heat Saturday afternoon when the excited screams of his grandchildren from inside the home confirmed his victory.

In the long run, the president-elect earned greater than 74 million votes, setting a report and besting Trump by greater than 4 million votes nationally. He received by flipping states Trump beforehand carried within the Midwest and the Southwest and he was even narrowly forward in Georgia, a Deep South state no Democrat had claimed in almost three many years.

Trump pledged to battle the outcomes, making wild and unsubstantiated claims of voter fraud. However his inside circle was in disarray as information emerged that his chief of workers had been contaminated with the coronavirus.

Biden was dedicated as ever to his well being consultants’ suggestions even in victory. He addressed the nation Saturday evening from an outside stage in a Wilmington parking zone dealing with supporters gathered of their vehicles for a drive-in celebration.

Biden walked on stage for the primary time as president-elect sporting a masks.

“Our work begins with getting COVID underneath management,” he mentioned. He later added: “We are going to lead not solely by the instance of our energy, however by the facility of our instance.”

Peoples reported from New York, Miller reported from Washington and Kinnard from Columbia, South Carolina. Related Press writers Jill Colvin, Brian Slodysko, Jonathan Lemire and Alexandra Jaffe in Washington contributed to this report.

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from Diaspora9ja https://diaspora9ja.com/how-biden-navigated-pandemic-politics-to-win-the-white-house-the-denver-post/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=how-biden-navigated-pandemic-politics-to-win-the-white-house-the-denver-post

[rdesai19]

2020

saturday night

Biden up by 7% in iowa - says one new poll of 800 people. 48% to 41%. is this poll right and all others wrong? is this fake news pushed by the right?

it makes PA the tie-breaker. and PA is very close. So are Georgia, Arizona, Texas, Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin, Florida. All these states will most likely break the same way - decisively victory for one of them. Is it more likely that the right takes over or the left?

If history is any guide - the right will take over. The left only wins decisively once in a while. The left's cultural victories are decisive but political victories, not so much. Every once in a while, the left does win - like the continent. But, most of the time, the right wins - in all the continents - not just in Europe. It feels like a very self-centered world in which the time i live through is one of those rare times when the left wins decisively. More likely, this will be like all those other times when the right wins yet another war and extracts a harrowing price. Perhaps, IA is a harbinger.

There is genuine energy in the 30% that the right does not identify with. They will show up in much higher numbers. There is also genuine energy in the right wing. They will show up in force - equally so. The moderates on both sides are very energized. They may not protest, but they will show up. And, whom are they voting for? Maybe enough of them do not identify with the right and show up in much bigger numbers. We will know when the wave breaks.

One of the many outcomes of this Schrodinger’s cat is that the left wins decisively. That could mean so many good things without pissing off the business too much. Techies love the left but are scared of the right. The right does not have the edge in tech. And business is techie these days. So, a decisive victory could mean a lot of awesome, perfectly constitutional legislative remedies to historical injustices. 

But, the more likely scenario is that things have to get worse before they get better. So, the right will win all 3 branches and proceed to enforce its will on the rest of the world. They have the $ and the guns. Trump could very well end up being the father of the American Empire. The first emperor. The supreme court will be packed with 13 justices - 10 repubilcans and 3 democrats. All the right lands will be gerrymandered. Elections can become a farce within 4 years.

Who will stop it from getting worse? There is no other nation with the power to stop them. Hitler had the USA. There is no USA that can out-USA USA now. A hundred years ago - there were multiple peer powers. Today, there is only one power.

The only thing that can stop this runaway right wing train with the American Empire as the engine - is nature.

---

sunday night

It seems highly possible that all the wavering states break the same way. Their behavior could turn out to be very correlated. The people who stay at home may be the same kind in all states. Breaking left is highly possible - biden, congress, and the senate. It would likely affect state elections too - continuing the tide of competitive improvement in state legislatures.

A complete control of the left over the law-making machinery is entirely plausible. And there is much old ground that can be reclaimed through laws. Cannabis, Civil rights, Abortion. Title IX, Immigration, Election infrastructure, regulations, etc. 

If two branches gang up on a third branch - it is not an even battle. If the congress and the president decide to pack the court, there is nothing that the SC can do to stop it. Notice that Biden has not ruled it out and he had promised to clarify his position before election day. I wonder if he will play his cards close or go big to get the base.

On the other hand, breaking right is highly possible too. Trump and the Senate stay republican. This would empower the right to no end. The project of American Empire would go full steam ahead. The right wing of today is not isolationist in the same way as the Nazi-era right of US. Those guys wanted to stay aloof from peers - these guys want to stay in splendid isolation - imposing their will on the whole world and exploiting resources like it is a race against the clock. The old practices of separate will come back; social injustice will get much worse. The British Empire with today’s tech.

It feels oddly calm even as I feel the wave is breaking big - one way or the other. The uncertainty makes it hard to feel happy about the prospects of Biden victory. The uncertainty makes it easy to feel scared about the prospects of Trump factory. The odd calm is perhaps the onset of the numbness needed to withstand the wave of fear and loathing that will wash over in case of Trump victory. After the numbing will no doubt come the regrouping. The right has risen. We are in for the long haul.

There will be recriminations in hindsight. But, I will need to put it behind me. I will need to put the loathing behind me too. There will be many people who will go to the right, once it rises. We will need to live with them. I will need to bring back my old values about how to be friends with right-leaning people while still being true to myself.

There will be temptations to go extreme. I do not have to be as cautious as I have been all my life. I can be vocal. I can become the thorn in people’s sides. But, I have to avoid these urges to signal virtue. Nothing is to be gained by feeling virtuous. Better to be in human company also, rather than only in my own head.

I feel that I have reached the end of imagination. I do not expect the right to hold back in any way. And, they have so many weapons they have never used. I do not expect them to exercise restraint. They are firm adherents of scorched earth tactics. Overwhelming power. Shock and Awe. SDI. They will not hesitate to bomb China or iran to bits. I do not think the US Military can stop them. There are enough in the US Military who support the right. Expect a major purge of the top level command in the military.

I feel that I have reached the end of imagination I do not expect the right to hold back in any way on the domestic front either. They will enact Christianity as the first among equals religion. Ten commandments, prayer, abortion. They will vent their fury on people like Brij - trans - who have not yet reached the level of LGB in mainstream, They will vent their fury on immigrants. They will push wages down - but unequally. While men’s wages will go down less; the rest will go down more. They will go to any lengths to ensure congress victory in 2022 - gerrymander after 2020 census, suppress vote,...

But, when it comes to the left winning - I do not feel at the end of imagination at all. Stories and novels and sagas remain to be written about how a more just society can be made with more just laws. It is a fascinating human endeavor. What are the just laws I want?

But, right now - it seems untimely to dwell on that.

-------------------------------------

Thursday night.

There is a lightness in my step. A lifting of a cloud in the head. There is a feeling of a return to a good place. Mere certainty of Trump’s loss has brought clarity back to the mind.

It is a relief that I can ignore Trump again. He is so infectiously negative. I marvel at how his 3 old kids have turned out so positive. He stirs up everyone’s negative nerves - whether sad or mad. Never glad.

Trump and Perdue are pegged - thankfully in GA, sadly in other places like KA, NC, MT, IA. The center left wins the presidency and now - the left left has to win the Senate by winning GA again. And, Biden has to get out the base in GA.

GA January may have an even bigger turnout than this time around. It will be an epic battle between the left and the right. A totally different test than this election, Trump will be dousing GA with the flames for two months. Churches could get burnt. Muslims could get rounded up as terrorists. Professors may get fired. All these attacks on civil society could juice up his base to an even higher participation. The backlash to Kamala's win and Trump’s loss could impose a whole new test on GA.

The left has the blacks. They will turn out 100%. They have been working the system. They know the importance of now. John Lewis will be brought up again and again. Biden will talk about LBJ. He will have to turn left. He cannot sit on his haunches and solve just Covid. He will have to spend political capital, perhaps burn some Republican bridges. He will bring out the base.

The left has minorities. Kamala could reach out to Indians - if she can convince more of them to forego their prejudices and economic thinking - maybe the Indians could be a help. These two segments, in spite of their turnout and strengths are no match for the white right.

It all comes down to the left-right split in the whites. GA 2021 is yet another civil war battle. And fittingly, GA is the location of the battle. The white left will turn out big. The youth vote will skyrocket. The senior turnout will get even higher. But, will enough white lefties show up in the fight against the 100% turnout in the white right? I think Biden can do it.

We cannot claim to know what this test will reveal. Such an honest test of the left-right split has never been conducted in any society. No one can predict what happens if there is a 100% turnout. The next few months will be full of drama. There is no return to normalcy. Trump will do atrocities that will shake me up. The Right is not going to suddenly give up. There is no permanent win in my lifetime. GA 2021 will provide an amazingly honest look at the left-right split in the whites.  I cannot know whether I will like the test results. No point in thinking about that.

It is still untimely to think of what kind of just laws I want. First, get clarity on what the next two months will bring. Pendulum of emotions. Trump will stir up bad stuff and that is actually very good for the cause. Biden will have to spend political capital on the base, instead of winning the center, like he did in 2020 elections. Seeing a prez do that will be very satisfying. A further step towards an old sjw’s dream. But, the good and the bad will be happening at the same time.

[latexprofit8-blog]

6 Things Barack Obama and Beto O'Rourke Could Discuss Other Than the 2020 Election

A recent meeting between former President Barack Obama and Beto O’Rourke, the Texas Democratic senate candidate who lost to Ted Cruz during the midterm elections, has sparked further conversation about a potential presidential run for O’Rourke in 2020.

First reported by The Washington Post, the meeting sparked a lot of discussion about what it could indicate about O’Rourke’s next political move. But we’re stuck imagining what a conversation between the two might’ve entailed. Here are five important issues that might be interesting to hear them chat about if they have any other hangouts planned:

Immigration Policy

From a creative interpretation of a 2005 C-Span clip of Obama to asserting that their family separation policies are similar (spoiler alert: they’re not), President Donald Trump has brought up former President Obama’s views on immigration quite a bit lately. Obama does hold the record for deporting more immigrants than any president, although he scaled back in the last 2 years of his presidency.

It certainly was not standard practice to separate families at the border, as it became under Trump’s “zero tolerance policy,” though. In June, Obama posted an emotional Facebook message decrying the policy, writing in part, “To watch those families broken apart in real time puts to us a very simple question: are we a nation that accepts the cruelty of ripping children from their parents’ arms, or are we a nation that values families, and works to keep them together?”

O’Rourke, meanwhile, was a very vocal opponent of the policy; he took a break from the campaign trail to help lead a protest at a tent city where migrant children were held, also in June.

A conversation between O’Rourke and Obama might address Trump’s latest claims and allow the two men to discuss their ideas for immigration reform that focus on more than enforcement. After seeing how the system has been used by the Trump administration, there might be room to discuss how to keep the next Democrat to win the White House from relying so heavily on deportation.

The Criminal Justice System

Earlier this year, O’Rourke wrote on op-ed for Houston Chronicle readers on his plan for criminal justice reform that would include “[eliminating] private, for-profit prisons,”[ending] the failed war on drugs,” “[ending] the current use of bail bonds,” “[providing] meaningful reentry to help cut down on recidivism” and doing away with “mandatory-minimum sentences for non-violent drug offenses.” He also gave an impassioned speech about the killing of Botham Jean while campaigning.

Obama famously commented on the killing of Trayvon Martin in 2013, saying, “When Trayvon Martin was first shot I said that this could have been my son. Another way of saying that is Trayvon Martin could have been me 35 years ago.”

The duo of exceptional orators could discuss their ideas for police reform, including what did and did not work under the Obama administration — and what has happened since Obama’s successor has taken office.

Trump

Obama has tried to keep his comments on the Trump administration to a minimum but has made thinly veiled references to Trump in speeches about liars. O’Rourke, meanwhile, is vocally critical of Trump’s policies.

Both Obama and O’Rourke have been targeted by the president. A conversation between the two about Trump could go far beyond how to run against him in 2020; it could include a discussion on the nature of the presidency moving forward.

Healthcare

O’Rourke wasn’t shy in campaigning on “universal, guaranteed, high-quality health care for all.” He’s also been vocal about the fact that he doesn’t think Obamacare went far enough in achieving this goal.

When the Affordable Care Act (aka Obamacare) was originally passed, there was some consideration for a single-payer system that would be similar to universal healthcare. But as NBC News reported, one of the bill’s chief architects, former Senator Max Baucus (D-MT), didn’t believe the country was ready for it at the time.

But the 2018 midterms saw Medicare for All — another name for a universal healthcare system — gain currency in Democratic political spaces, as Business Insider documented. A discussion on healthcare between O’Rourke and Obama could address how that shift has taken place and what it could mean moving forward.

The Future of the Democratic Party

During the 2008 campaign, Obama represented a new face for the Democrats. With poise and youth, his election included record voter turnout as energized voters seized the opportunity to vote in a historic election.

O’Rourke has compared to Obama a lot this year, as Vanity Fair and Politico noted. He enters at a time when Democratic outliers like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez have made breaking from party orthodoxy a little more common than it may have been when Obama surged onto the national stage.

What does the future of the Democratic Party look like and how does the political party move forward? How does the party reach communities that feel they’ve previously been ignored by politicians? O’Rourke and Obama could have an enlightening conversation on what their political party needs to do to galvanize voters moving forward.

Punk Rock

This one’s just for fun. O’Rourke was famously in a punk band in the 1990s, as Vox reported. Turns out he still has a lot of respect for the punk scene all these years later.

“They started their own label, they pressed their own records, they wrote their own songs, they booked their own tours and they set conditions, like: you’re not gonna pay more than five bucks to come into this show,” O’Rourke told Rolling Stone as he expressed his admiration for the DIY ethics of indie label Dischord Records.

Obama had supporters in the punk scene, as noted by Consequence of Sound and Noisey. But a Vice investigation found that it seems Obama doesn’t have much punk in his personal library.

Maybe O’Rourke could trade him a starter punk playlist for some good tips on jazz — something Obama knows a fair bit about, apparently.

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Want more from Teen Vogue? Check this out: Beto O'Rourke Won With Texas's Black Women Because We Are Still the Moral Compass of United States Politics

Source: https://www.teenvogue.com/story/6-things-barack-obama-beto-orourke-could-discuss-other-than-2020-election

[thisdaynews]

How Republicans learned to love a pot bill

New Post has been published on https://thebiafrastar.com/how-republicans-learned-to-love-a-pot-bill/

How Republicans learned to love a pot bill

Rep. Ed Perlmutter first introduced the legislation in 2013. | David Zalubowski/AP Photo

Republicans in Congress, who have stonewalled pro-marijuana legislation for years, are now emerging as the cannabis industry’s most valuable allies.

In a historic vote Wednesday, 91 Republicans joined 229 Democrats to pass legislation that would finally give marijuana businesses access to banks — a critical tool that the industry needs to grow.

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The vote came after the cannabis banking bill’s lead sponsors had spent months trying to draw GOP support, walking a tightrope to avoid casting the legislation as a weed legalization bill. The hope was that their backing would boost momentum in the Republican-led Senate.

The Republican turnout for the bill is stark evidence that the politics around cannabis are rapidly shifting after 33 states — and likely more to come — have legalized marijuana in some form. Long-running stigmas around pot are fading as cannabis becomes increasingly entrenched in local economies.

“The genie is out of the bottle,” said Rep. Steve Stivers (R-Ohio), who led efforts to build the bill’s Republican coalition even as he remains opposed to legalizing recreational marijuana.

Republicans have long been the staunchest opponents of legalization, with GOP leaders in Congress refusing in the past to consider even the narrow safe harbor that the House approved on Wednesday. The bill, which passed in a 321-103 vote, would shield banks from federal prosecution for serving marijuana businesses in states where the drug is legal. The federal prohibition on the sale of marijuana remains.

Now, the seal of approval by so many Republicans is giving the bill’s backers real hope that the Republican-led Senate will pass the legislation in some fashion.

President Donald Trump has sent positive signals and is not expected to stand in the way. A turning point last year was Trump’s ouster of Attorney General Jeff Sessions, who while in office reversed an Obama-era policy that allowed for legal marijuana businesses to operate.

House Republican leaders declined to try to stymie the bill, giving members freedom to vote in favor of the legislation. Among its supporters was Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.).

Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.), the top Republican on the House Financial Services Committee, said he didn’t try to dissuade GOP lawmakers from supporting the bill. McHenry voted against the legislation.

McHenry’s predecessor, Jeb Hensarling, a Texas Republican who chaired the committee for six years, was widely seen as a major obstacle to the legislation, which Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D-Colo.) first introduced in 2013. The bill received its first committee hearing shortly after Democrats took control of the House in January.

“What I’ve told Republican members is you need to listen to your constituents and your conscience and make the best decision you see fit,” McHenry said.

Several factors helped deliver significant Republican backing, which was reinforced by a major lobbying push by banks, credit unions and the cannabis industry.

The rapid moves by states to permit the sale of cannabis has created public safety concerns because, without access to bank accounts, marijuana businesses have been forced to transact in cash, making them a target for criminals. It has also made it hard for regulators and state officials to track revenue from the industry.

But the legalization of marijuana at the state level has also made it an issue for a growing number of vendors and service providers that may not sell marijuana themselves but do business with the increasingly lucrative cannabis industry.

The knock-on effects have helped make it a key issue for bank lobbyists and skeptical Republicans alike.

“The most compelling arguments have been centered around these secondary relationships,” said American Bankers Association President and CEO Rob Nichols. “It’s the local plumber, it’s the local electrician, it’s the attorney, it’s the accountant who are doing business with a cannabis grower or dispensary who are then having challenges associated with getting banking products and services.”

Stivers said he decided to get involved early this year after a nutrient seller in his district informed him they were at risk of losing their bank accounts because they sold to cannabis-related businesses.

“We’re starting to hear from landlords, hardware stores down the street and a whole bunch of other folks,” he said.

After a March committee vote that attracted support from 11 Republicans, the bill’s backers looked for other ways to make the legislation more appealing to the GOP and Senate Republican leaders.

They focused on selling the bill to GOP lawmakers as a piece of banking legislation — not marijuana legalization.

They settled on two additions, which helped bring on more GOP lawmakers and may win over senior Senate Republicans.

One new set of provisions would establish specific banking protections for hemp products, which, like marijuana, are derived from cannabis. Hemp is an increasingly important crop in Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s home state of Kentucky, and he ensured it was legalized as part of a recent farm bill.

“I’ve been very, very consistent about opposing the legalization of marijuana but supporting the legalization of industrial hemp,” said Rep. Andy Barr (R-Ky.), who decided to support today’s bill after winning the hemp addition. “This is the vehicle that’s moving. This is the way I can help industrial hemp.”

The other addition to the bill would prohibit bank regulators from discouraging lenders from serving businesses based on reputational risk. It’s legislation that Republicans have been seeking for years to prevent a revival of an Obama-era Justice Department program known as “Operation Choke Point,” which critics said pressured banks to cut ties with payday lenders, gun retailers and other customers that were out of political favor.

Trump administration officials have said that initiative is over, but Republicans argue they don’t want the next administration to resurrect it.

Among the program’s chief critics was Sen. Mike Crapo (R-Idaho), who is now chairman of the Senate Banking Committee. Crapo has no legal cannabis industry in his state and was first seen as a potential obstacle to cannabis banking legislation. But he recently told POLITICO he had been convinced to take up the bill in his committee — an announcement that House members believe helped move the needle further with Republicans in their chamber.

“It’s one thing to vote for this knowing it’s going to a deep and watery death,” said Rep. Denny Heck (D-Wash.), who has been working on the legislation with Perlmutter since its inception. “It’s another thing if it looks like, ‘Hey, maybe this is a viable issue.’ … For him to say something, for the president to say something, it all added fuel to our fire. They were all wood pellets in the burner.”

Before the House vote, Stivers said the “Choke Point” addition helped raise his estimate of likely Republican support from 50 votes to at least 80.

“It changed the math,” he said.

The addition brought around Republicans like Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer (R-Mo.). He voted against the bill in committee and opposes recreational marijuana but has been trying to pass anti-“Choke Point” legislation for years.

Luetkemeyer isn’t convinced that the underlying legislation will resolve the cannabis industry’s problems in accessing financial services. But he’ll take the win. Like other lawmakers, he’s also well aware of the potential medicinal benefits. His granddaughter has seizure problems, and a cannabis product known as cannabidiol, or CBD, is used to treat epilepsy.

“Sometimes you weigh the good and the bad in a bill and you find there is more good than there is bad,” he said.

Read More

[turkeycd0-blog]

6 Things Barack Obama and Beto O'Rourke Could Discuss Other Than the 2020 Election

A recent meeting between former President Barack Obama and Beto O’Rourke, the Texas Democratic senate candidate who lost to Ted Cruz during the midterm elections, has sparked further conversation about a potential presidential run for O’Rourke in 2020.

First reported by The Washington Post, the meeting sparked a lot of discussion about what it could indicate about O’Rourke’s next political move. But we’re stuck imagining what a conversation between the two might’ve entailed. Here are five important issues that might be interesting to hear them chat about if they have any other hangouts planned:

Immigration Policy

From a creative interpretation of a 2005 C-Span clip of Obama to asserting that their family separation policies are similar (spoiler alert: they’re not), President Donald Trump has brought up former President Obama’s views on immigration quite a bit lately. Obama does hold the record for deporting more immigrants than any president, although he scaled back in the last 2 years of his presidency.

It certainly was not standard practice to separate families at the border, as it became under Trump’s “zero tolerance policy,” though. In June, Obama posted an emotional Facebook message decrying the policy, writing in part, “To watch those families broken apart in real time puts to us a very simple question: are we a nation that accepts the cruelty of ripping children from their parents’ arms, or are we a nation that values families, and works to keep them together?”

O’Rourke, meanwhile, was a very vocal opponent of the policy; he took a break from the campaign trail to help lead a protest at a tent city where migrant children were held, also in June.

A conversation between O’Rourke and Obama might address Trump’s latest claims and allow the two men to discuss their ideas for immigration reform that focus on more than enforcement. After seeing how the system has been used by the Trump administration, there might be room to discuss how to keep the next Democrat to win the White House from relying so heavily on deportation.

The Criminal Justice System

Earlier this year, O’Rourke wrote on op-ed for Houston Chronicle readers on his plan for criminal justice reform that would include “[eliminating] private, for-profit prisons,”[ending] the failed war on drugs,” “[ending] the current use of bail bonds,” “[providing] meaningful reentry to help cut down on recidivism” and doing away with “mandatory-minimum sentences for non-violent drug offenses.” He also gave an impassioned speech about the killing of Botham Jean while campaigning.

Obama famously commented on the killing of Trayvon Martin in 2013, saying, “When Trayvon Martin was first shot I said that this could have been my son. Another way of saying that is Trayvon Martin could have been me 35 years ago.”

The duo of exceptional orators could discuss their ideas for police reform, including what did and did not work under the Obama administration — and what has happened since Obama’s successor has taken office.

Trump

Obama has tried to keep his comments on the Trump administration to a minimum but has made thinly veiled references to Trump in speeches about liars. O’Rourke, meanwhile, is vocally critical of Trump’s policies.

Both Obama and O’Rourke have been targeted by the president. A conversation between the two about Trump could go far beyond how to run against him in 2020; it could include a discussion on the nature of the presidency moving forward.

Healthcare

O’Rourke wasn’t shy in campaigning on “universal, guaranteed, high-quality health care for all.” He’s also been vocal about the fact that he doesn’t think Obamacare went far enough in achieving this goal.

When the Affordable Care Act (aka Obamacare) was originally passed, there was some consideration for a single-payer system that would be similar to universal healthcare. But as NBC News reported, one of the bill’s chief architects, former Senator Max Baucus (D-MT), didn’t believe the country was ready for it at the time.

But the 2018 midterms saw Medicare for All — another name for a universal healthcare system — gain currency in Democratic political spaces, as Business Insider documented. A discussion on healthcare between O’Rourke and Obama could address how that shift has taken place and what it could mean moving forward.

The Future of the Democratic Party

During the 2008 campaign, Obama represented a new face for the Democrats. With poise and youth, his election included record voter turnout as energized voters seized the opportunity to vote in a historic election.

O’Rourke has compared to Obama a lot this year, as Vanity Fair and Politico noted. He enters at a time when Democratic outliers like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez have made breaking from party orthodoxy a little more common than it may have been when Obama surged onto the national stage.

What does the future of the Democratic Party look like and how does the political party move forward? How does the party reach communities that feel they’ve previously been ignored by politicians? O’Rourke and Obama could have an enlightening conversation on what their political party needs to do to galvanize voters moving forward.

Punk Rock

This one’s just for fun. O’Rourke was famously in a punk band in the 1990s, as Vox reported. Turns out he still has a lot of respect for the punk scene all these years later.

“They started their own label, they pressed their own records, they wrote their own songs, they booked their own tours and they set conditions, like: you’re not gonna pay more than five bucks to come into this show,” O’Rourke told Rolling Stone as he expressed his admiration for the DIY ethics of indie label Dischord Records.

Obama had supporters in the punk scene, as noted by Consequence of Sound and Noisey. But a Vice investigation found that it seems Obama doesn’t have much punk in his personal library.

Maybe O’Rourke could trade him a starter punk playlist for some good tips on jazz — something Obama knows a fair bit about, apparently.

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Want more from Teen Vogue? Check this out: Beto O'Rourke Won With Texas's Black Women Because We Are Still the Moral Compass of United States Politics

Source: https://www.teenvogue.com/story/6-things-barack-obama-beto-orourke-could-discuss-other-than-2020-election

[theliberaltony]

via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

Yesterday, my colleague Nathaniel Rakich wrote about the Democrats’ impressive third-quarter fundraising haul, which boosted their odds in our forecast in a number of competitive House races. I’m going to hit the topic of fundraising once more — just to underscore how much of an outlier the Democratic advantage is relative to historical norms and how that could represent a challenge for our forecast.

It would be one thing if Democrats were raising money only in a few high-profile races — say, for example, in Beto O’Rourke’s Senate race in Texas. But that’s precisely not what is happening. Instead, the Democrats’ fundraising advantage is widespread. They’re raising money almost everywhere they need it in the House, whereas Republicans are sometimes coming up short.

For instance, we project that by the time they file their 12G reports later this month — the last filings due before the election — 144 Democrats on November House ballots1 will have raised at least $1 million in individual contributions, not counting self-funding or outside money. But we project just 84 Republicans will have done the same. We also project that 73 Democratic House candidates will have raised at least $2 million, as compared to just 17 Republicans.

Until recently, it was rare for House candidates to raise $2 million for their races — but it’s become more common in recent years as fundraising has gone digital and candidates have learned how to make highly tailored online appeals. There was a huge jump in the number of $2-million-plus candidates in both parties between 2014 and 2016, for example. But while Democrats’ numbers have held steady or improved from the high levels they had in 2016, Republican numbers have collapsed. The 17 GOP candidates that project to raise at least $2 million this year is down from 64 in 2016. (All figures are adjusted for inflation.)

Democrats’ fundraising advantage is widespread

Number of candidates on Nov. House ballots raising … At least $500K by 20 days before the election At least $1M by 20 days before the election At least $2M by 20 days before the election Year Dem. GOP Dem. GOP Dem. GOP 1998 93 128 22 37 3 4 2000 123 153 48 61 4 9 2002 108 151 38 37 8 6 2004 134 178 48 66 8 10 2006 156 172 62 65 13 13 2008 190 168 84 60 18 10 2010 200 220 95 87 20 15 2012 170 227 80 105 18 2 2014 153 197 65 76 23 9 2016 212 249 142 171 80 64 2018* 232 179 144 84 73 17

*2018 totals are extrapolated based on fundraising through Sept. 30.

All figures are adjusted for inflation.

Source: Federal election commission

The result is a fundraising disparity of the likes we’ve never seen before — at least not in recent years. (Our data on House fundraising goes back to 1998.) In the average House district, the Democratic candidate has raised 64 percent of the money,2 or almost two-thirds. Likewise, the Democrat has raised an average of 65 percent of the money in districts rated as competitive3 by the Cook Political Report. In all previous years in our database, no party had averaged more than 56 percent of the money in these competitive districts.

Democrats’ fundraising dominance has no recent precedent

Democrats’ share of two-party campaign contributions All House districts Competitive House districts Year Average Median Average Median 1998 47% 42% 51% 49% 2000 50 49 49 50 2002 49 41 46 44 2004 47 44 49 50 2006 54 54 51 50 2008 60 66 49 49 2010 47 49 54 53 2012 46 43 48 48 2014 48 46 56 55 2016 49 46 52 54 2018* 64 71 65 68

*Based on data available as of Oct. 18, 2018. For other years, totals are based on data available as of Election Day. The data covers individual campaign contributions only, and not candidate self-funding or donations from PACs or outside groups.

Source: Federal Election Commission

The fundraising numbers are so good for Democrats — and so bad for Republicans — that it’s a little bit hard to know quite what to make of them. From a modelling standpoint, we’re extrapolating from years in which fundraising was relatively even, or from when one party had a modest edge, into an environment where Democrats suddenly have a 2-1 advantage in fundraising in competitive races. Moreover, this edge comes despite the fact that a large number of these competitive races feature Republican incumbents (incumbents usually have an easier time raising money than challengers) and that most of them are in red terrain.

If Democrats beat their projections on Nov. 6 — say, they win 63 House seats, equalling the number that Republicans won in 2010, an unlikely-but-not-impossible scenario — we may look back on these fundraising numbers as the canary in the coal mine. That data, plus Democrats’ very strong performances in special elections, could look like tangible signs of a Democratic turnout surge that pollsters and pundits perhaps won’t have paid enough attention to. Right now, in fact, the polls are not showing a Democratic turnout advantage. Instead, based on a comparison of likely-voter and registered-voter polls, they’re projecting roughly equal turnout between the parties, with Republicans’ demographic advantages (older, whiter voters typically vote at higher rates at the midterms) counteracting Democrats’ seemingly higher enthusiasm. If turnout among Democratic-leaning groups actually outpaces that among Republican-leaning ones, Democrats will beat their polls and our projections.

It’s just as easy to imagine the error running the other way, however. Maybe, precisely because fundraising has become easier, including winning contributions from out-of-state and out-of-district donors, it’s no longer as meaningful an indicator of candidates’ grassroots appeal or organizational strength. Maybe the demographics of the Republican coalition have changed such that they’ll no longer raise as much money but will still get plenty of votes. Or maybe the GOP can make up for their lack of individual fundraising with more money from outside groups. If that’s the case, our model could overestimate Democrats’ chances. Although, I should note that while there’s a gap between our Lite forecast, which is based on local and national polls only, and our Classic forecast, which also incorporates fundraising and other “fundamentals” data, it’s not an especially large one. (Lite projects Democrats to pick up 36 seats, on average, as compared to 39 in Classic.)

Either way, we’re in somewhat uncharted territory here. For the most part, the various indicators we use in our House forecast tell a consistent story. The generic congressional ballot, district-by-district polling, and the past electoral history of midterm years under unpopular presidents are all consistent with a Democratic edge of somewhere between 6 and 10 percentage points in the House popular vote, and their being reasonably solid but not overwhelming favorites to win a majority of seats. The fundraising data points toward a massive, Democratic landslide, on the other hand.

As a first approximation, the correct approach with data that looks like an outlier is to average it together with the other indicators — not to throw it out. (More often than you might think, the seeming “outlier” proves to be correct and it’s the other data that was off.) And that’s more or less what our model does. But the fundraising data contributes uncertainty to our forecast in a way our topline probabilities may not capture well.

[markjoeckel]

Arlington On Tap! Show Notes for BizTalk Arlington with O.K. Carter, 3-4pm Every Tuesday.

Arlington on Tap! On The Mark Joeckel Show Check Out Show Notes Below By

O.K Carter. May 9, 3-4pm 

Topics Include: Local Elections/Run-Offs, High Speed Rail, Sanctuary Cities, Food Truck Fridays, Inter-Urban Find, Texas Live and More

Listen Online or Download App Android  IOS  or watch on Facebook Live 

Yeah, we know there was a local election Saturday. Slightly more than 10 percent of Arlington’s registered voters showed up (terrible but in a good way since the average turnout is closer to 5 percent). Ten percent is about 20,000 voters. Here’s what happened:

A $45 million senior citizen center killed it, passing by about 69 percent

Firefighters got civil service on their third try by about 53 percent

Incumbents Mayor Jeff Williams, Councilmembers Kathryn Wilemon and Michael Glaspie won by big margins, more than 60 percent.

Two council races will have runoffs. Incumbent Lana Wolff barely missed a win with 47 percent. She’ll face Dakota Loupe. In the only slot without an incumbent, Marvin Sutton led with 45 percent to Roxanne Thalman’s 35 percent, so another runoff there. Wolff has been the target of an expanded social media campaign that has made much of her husband’s historic financial issues, but she’d still have to be favored to win the runoff.

When is the runoff? June 10.

 On the AISD, incumbents Bowie Hogg and Kecia Mays took easy wins.

Congratulations as well to community activist and longtime friend Kathy Stein, who won an alderman (person) slot in Dalworthington Gardens.

Kennedale – In the midst of a hassle about water utility increases, one councilmember abruptly resigned, though it was too late to take him off the ballot. So he lost anyway, and two other incumbents were also bumped. Kennedale governance will have new faces with Rocky Giley, Sandra Lee and Jan Joplin all about to be sworn in as new councilmembers…a political massacre in Kennedale, call it what it is.

Mansfield ISD…bond proposal passed with 65 percent. There’ll also be a school board trustee runoff and two city council runoffs.

The Tarrant County College board of elected trustees tends to fly under the radar, but let us note that Diane Patrick was elected with a plus-60 margin on the board…she’s now been a school board member, a state board of education member, a state rep and now a TCC trustee…also a prof at UTA. Congrats as well to the Rev. Michael Evans, elected without opposition as a new trustee representing south Arlington, Mansfield and Dalworthington Gardens.

You might ask what happens to Fire Department Civil Service now and how does it work? In the fall the city will set up a civil service board with three appointees…who appoints them? The City Manager, though the council has to approve the appointees, who will serve staggered terms of three years. The system will have to conform to state requirements…testing for promotions and the like. Also, disciplinary actions – even firing – can be appealed to the board. It is not true that nobody can be fired…people are fired under civil service all the time, though the process can clearly be more laborious. THE PREDICTION – police and other city employees will likely try to follow suit.

Not all the controversial issues are concluded…Council tonight is supposed to consider a second reading of an expanded and vehemently disputed smoking ordinance. They could approve it. Table it again. Or maybe, just maybe, move it to a referendum for voters in November…I’d bet on that being the strongest possibility. Smoking advocates say this is the option they’d prefer...probably not the smartest move.

Arlington on Tap tonight…

Hey all you barstool philosophers, it’s the last Arlington on Tap of the 2016-17 season tonight, 6 p.m. at Maverick’s Bar and Grill…features humorist and story teller Donna Darovich with tales about the old-time Arlington Citizen-Journal. Should be both funny and interesting.

Also Tony Pompa will show up to provide a brief preview of the upcoming first Santa Fe International Folk Art Market in Arlington, rated the Best Art Festival in America by USA Today. Taking place June 16-17 at The Green at College Park, on the University of Texas at Arlington campus, the market will feature 35 master artists and their handmade goods from such diverse countries as Italy, Ghana, Uzbekistan, Nigeria, Ukraine, South Sudan, Myanmar, and Peru, among others.

The folk market was created to help artists from around the world become self-sustainable, while sharing their indigenous cultures. Yes, it’s a big deal and more proof that downtown Arlington is becoming a sort of festival center…big crowd for the East Main Street Arts Fair Saturday. Easy to see why downtown was recently designated a Texas Cultural Arts District.

Shades of the old Interurban…Years ago, fire marshal J.W. Dunlop told me that part of the old Interurban tracks were buried under Abram Street near City Hall…I said…ehhhh. Darned if Dunlop wasn’t right. Last month construction crews excavating near City Hall unearthed a rusty wheel and a section of track – relics from the “Interurban” electric trolley service that once ran between Fort Worth and Dallas. The Interurban Line, which included a station at what is now Abram Street and Center Street in downtown Arlington, operated from the early 1900’s to the 1930’s. The last train made the Interurban run through Arlington on Christmas Eve 1934, according to the Arlington Historical Society. Credit Steve Barnes, Arlington Historical Society president, with spotting the buried wheel and section of track. 

TEXAS LIVE adds Loews Hotel to mix. Texas Live! will include a $250 million world-class dining, entertainment and hospitality hotel destination, a $150 million flagship hotel, Live! by Loews – Arlington, TX, will be the first of its kind in the country blending sports and entertainment with first-class hospitality and superior amenities. It’s all part of a $4 billion vision for the Arlington Entertainment District that includes the Rangers new $1 billion ballpark and preservation of Globe Life Park. The game plan for the project is to become a resort-style destination for sports fans, visitors, and families, as well as a spectacular location for meetings, special events and conventions.

FOOD TRUCK FRIDAYS…the Arlington Parks and Recreation Department’s Food Truck Fridays lunch series continues the next couple of Friday, 11 a.m. to 2 p.m. every Friday at 

Founders Plaza

, 100 W Abram Street (Yes, that’s the Levitt Pavilion across from city hall. .Bring a lawn chair.

Each Friday will feature a new lineup of food trucks, allowing visitors the opportunity to taste and try out different fare.

KB Brats

Rockin’ Ricks

Bellatrino

Holy Frijole

Rockin’ Rooster Sno Cones

Pokey O’s

New Tarrant College President Eugene Giovaninni likes to be a go-to source for corporate training, a good example unfolding yesterday. Toyota and Tarrant County College will partner to bring a state-of-the-art automotive training program to the TCC South Campus aimed at turning out highly skilled technicians for good-paying jobs with Toyota and Lexus auto dealers.

Toyota clearly serious about it…the company showed up yesterday for the announcement with 37 new cars donated for students to work on.

Students will attend classes three days a week and work as interns at area Toyota or Lexus dealerships…a pretty good learn and earn deal.

 It’s a cliché and also true when it is said that all politics is local (for example if the fed action drops 24 million from insurance rolls and you are one of them), but state changes often rolls down to impact cities in a hurry.

Sanctuary city business…

Gov. Greg Abbott signed a ban on "sanctuary cities" into law on Sunday at night (used Facebook to telecast it), allowing police to inquire about the immigration status of people they lawfully detain. 

Senate Bill 4 makes sheriffs, constables, police chiefs and other local leaders subject to Class A misdemeanor charges if they don’t cooperate with federal authorities and honor requests from immigration agents to hold noncitizen inmates who are subject to deportation. It also provides civil penalties for entities in violation of the provision that begin at $1,000 for a first offense and climb to as high as $25,500 for each subsequent infraction. The bill also applies to public colleges. 

What exactly is a sanctuary city? There’s no exact definition. A sanctuary city is a city that limits its cooperation with the national government effort to enforce immigration law…sometimes formally and sometimes with a sort of wink wink. Some people say Dallas is a sanctuary city and I’ve even heard Arlington listed in the category.

Other state stuff with local implications…the legislature wants to toughen gambling laws (on-line slots are a particular target) to strengthen bingo for cash winners because bingo parlors contribute a portion of profits to charitable groups. Bingo for money was approved in 1981. Last year Texas bingo parlors took in $761 million, gave back $579 million to players  (75 percent) plus another $33 million (5 percent) for assorted state and local taxes…almost 81 percent. The bingo halls take expenses from the remaining 19 percent and then make donations to charities.

How much? About a billion bucks over the past 28 years or an average of $37 million a year, spread across the entire state. Arlington has roughly a dozen bingo parlors…who by the way were the only entity exempted from the tougher Arlington smoking ordinance.

CAR Inspections needed? Believe it or not, Texas is one of only 15 states requiring annual auto safety inspections. There’s a bill in the Texas Senate getting rid of the practice, though auto drivers in counties with high pollution would be required to get emission tests only (Yes…that includes Tarrant, Dallas, Denton, Collins and Ellis counties). The main objections include safety of vehicles and also that about 50,000 mechanics depend on inspection income. Yet somehow 35 other states seem to get along without the inspections.

Like that bullet train from FW through Arlington to Dallas to Houston idea?  landowners opposed to a high-speed train line between Dallas and Houston 

took to the Capitol

  to warn lawmakers that the project would ruin rural lifestyles and prevent growth in the counties between the two cities. Despite that there are no less than four bullet train bills.

The multibillion-dollar project 

Texas Central

 has been developing for several years — a 240-mile bullet train line that promises to shuttle passengers  between downtown Dallas and northwest Houston in 90 minutes on a 200 mph train. The company promises to get the $12 billion project done without taking public dollars other than through loans but would need eminent domain to do it.  Though the company has drawn support from investors, federal officials and officials representing the cities at each end of its route, the project has drawn intense opposition from many communities in between.

Not all Texans like the border wall…more than 90 Texas landowners are filing lawsuits resisting efforts to take their property for President Trump’s wall..Texas has 1,254 river miles bordering Mexico and the wall would hinder access to both the Rio Grande river and a couple of big lakes…oddly, resistance is strongest in the Rio Grand Valley area of far south Texas, which is also a hotbed for smuggling of drugs like marijuana and cocaine and also entry point for thousands of illegal immigrants. Despite that sanctuary city legislation the Legislature in general seems to be on the property owners’ side.

Heart patients with problems so serious they can’t exercise are in a catch 22…they can’t exercise because of their condition and their condition gets worse because they can’t exercise.

With help from National Institute of Health $308k grant, at UTA, gerontological nursing research professor Mark Haykowsky and a team of researchers are studying exercise intolerance and its improvement with endurance exercise training in older heart failure patients. It’s called preserved ejection fraction.

It’s the fastest growing type of heart failure, found mostly in older individuals. The mortality rate for these patients is high. Drug therapies improve survival in many heart failure patients but not with this type of exercise intolerant patients.  The researchers are looking at peripheral non-cardiac factors that affect exercise tolerance and their improvement with exercise training – often they’re finding muscle sympathetic activity is over active. Using carefully monitored patients over 60 they’ll be looking for ways to improve cardiorespiratory fitness, aerobic endurance, functional performance and quality of life.

Who needs a swimming pool?

Groundbreaking for Pantego’s new Splash Pad is at 7 p.m. tomorrow (Wed) in Bicentennial Park, 3206 Smith Barry Road (Smith Barry off Bowen a few blocks south of Park Row). The splash pad includes a water recycling system. Play features will include: 

• 3 water hoops 

• tall dumping bucket 

• tall & mini mushroom showers 

• lots of ground sprays … works for kids of all ages…in short get wet and get some sun. Lots of interactive features. The Splash Pad should be up and running by mid-summer.

[realestate63141]

Millennial Magnets: The Top 10 Cities Where Young People Want to Be

Orlando, FL (lightkey/iStock)

What do millennials want, anyway? Marketing execs all over the country have been tripping over themselves for years to find the answer. After all, as America’s largest and youngest adult generation, millennials have an insane amount of collective purchasing power, the power to move markets according to their whims—and the ability to do so for decades to come.

As a group, they’re also somewhat elusive. Are they aimless or driven? Apathetic or activist? IPhone or Android? Taco Bell or Chipotle?

Well, here’s something we do know: In ever-increasing numbers, they’re home buyers. In fact, they’re the biggest group of ’em in the nation. Sure, they’re devotees of the borrowers’ economy—eagerly sharing bikes, music, rides, vacation places, you name it—but like most generations before them, they’re hungry for home ownership. Buyers under 36 now make up the biggest chunk of Americans signing on the line that is dotted: 34% of all home buyers, according to the National Association of Realtors®. And they make up 64% of first-time home buyers (even though they only account for 13% of the population).

So if millennials are checking out your hometown, you’d best pay attention.

“There are some very specific things you see millennials looking for in a community right now,” says Jason Dorsey, chief strategy officer for the Center for Generational Kinetics, a marketing firm in Austin, TX. On the list of must-haves: supershort commutes, and amenities like parks, cultural centers, and restaurants. And yeah, maybe even some really fun stuff to do on a Thursday night. That’s because many of these 25- to 34-year-olds are delaying marriage and even a serious career, and want to enjoy the single life, he says.

As Dorsey points out, they also face an UberXL load of unique financial challenges: “College debt, thinner credit history, less savings—and all at a time when home prices have gone up. For many millennials, it’s much harder to buy houses.” On their path to ownership, they’re very much on the prowl for a bargain.

So what are the places that pique millennials’ interest? The realtor.com economic data team analyzed the 60 largest U.S. cities and how much millennials were checking out listings in those areas, compared with the national average, from August 2016 to February 2017.

Ready? Let’s take a closer look at these millennial magnets.

1. Salt Lake City, UT

Median home price: $360,000

Percentage of income needed to buy a home*: 30%

Unemployment rate: 2.9%

Salt Lake City

AndreyKrav/iStock

Salt Lake City has a lot more going for it than Mormons, the first KFC franchise (1952), and a big, briny body of water (the Great Salt Lake). There’s also a burgeoning tech scene that lures young people to companies like Adobe and Electronic Arts. In fact, the city has come to be known as “Silicon Slopes,” with homes at one-third of Silicon Valley prices and plenty of sweet skiing and boarding a short ride away.

Even those outside the tech biz have a good chance of snagging a nice gig—Salt Lake has the lowest unemployment rate of all the markets on our list, at 2.9%, well below the national unemployment rate of 4.7%.

And if your dream job hasn’t yet kicked in, there are plenty of cheap, fun things to do.

“This is an extremely livable, affordable city, especially for those that are just starting out,” says Brook Bernier, a Realtor with Equity Real Estate.

Adventure awaits in SLC’s many bike lanes and mountain bike trails. There’s even a Bike Prom (a costumed bike rally party) and Tour de Brewtah, which combines two of the (clichéd, but true) great loves of millennials: bikes and micro-brewed beers. The weekly farmers market even offers valet bike parking.

Millennial lure:  SLC may be known as a conservative place, but it was named the “Gayest City in the USA” in 2012 by the LGBT magazine the Advocate. It was ranked eighth last year.

2. Miami, FL

Median home price: $370,000

Percentage of income needed to buy a home: 49%

Unemployment rate: 5.1%

It’s not just sun birds or aging boomers who flock to Florida in droves, fleeing cold weather. So do millennials! The sunshine is nice, but young folk are attracted to a hopping scene with relatively affordable homes and decent job opportunities. Many find employment in tourism, international trading, and construction—the entire region is enjoying a building boom.

It’s not all work and no play, though. While the South Beach is known for its club scene, events like Calle Ocho Festival, Carnaval Miami, and Art Basel Miami  turn the entire city into a party. In addition to numerous art galleries and music venues, the Adrienne Arsht Center was opened in 2006 as the country’s second-largest performing arts center (after NYC’s Metropolitan Opera House).

Up-and-coming neighborhoods like Little Haiti and North Miami are getting fresh interest from young buyers, says Realtor Giovanna Calimano, of Yes Real Estate.

“A lot of these areas are developing little by little,” she says. “They’re hot because the houses there right now aren’t overpriced. People can live there while the communities are still developing and improving.”

Millennial lure: Beach culture—fun, sexy, and cheap (or, actually, free). What’s not to love?

3. Orlando, FL

Median home price: $279,000

Percentage of income needed to buy a home: 34%

Unemployment rate: 4.4%

Bike to Work Day in Orlando

CindyMurray/iStock

There’s much more to Orlando than theme parks, oversized mice, and sleepy time-shares overlooking golf courses. In fact, this fast-growing metro is getting a lot of serious attention from young people.

“You’ve got the best of both worlds,” says Realtor Lorisa Motko of Charles Rutenberg Realty. “You’ve got the beaches 45 minutes in any direction, and you have plenty of entertainment and nightlife for millennials.”

New mixed-use developments designed to appeal to both city-loving millennials and baby boomers (hey, what happened to Gen Xers, anyway?), many of which are pedestrian- and bicycle-friendly. Thornton Park, just east of downtown, has also become popular among younger homeowners seeking a unique historic neighborhood with cobbled streets and lined with bungalows.

The Orlando metro area leads Florida in job creation, and added 54,600 jobs in January, according to the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity.

Millennial lure:  Orlando was the birthplace of the megastar boy bands, ‘NSync and the Backstreet Boys, which dominated the airwaves back in the ’90s. And, in case you hadn’t heard, the ’90s are cool again … with millennials. Go figure.

4. Seattle, WA

Median home price: $455,000

Percentage of income needed to buy a home: 36%

Unemployment rate: 4.2%

Seattle checks off quite a few items on the millennial home buyer’s list: well-paid jobs (at Amazon, Microsoft, and Costco) quality coffeehouses around almost every corner, more than 50 bike trails, and some of the country’s best tree-lined streets.

It’s also a welcoming place for nonconforming young people. The city had one of the nation’s biggest turnouts for the Women’s March on Jan. 21, hometown titan Starbucks announced a plan to hire refugees, and it’s the first major U.S. metro to approve a $15 minimum wage.

“Seattle is hip, it’s current, it’s progressive,” says Chris Bajuk, a broker at HomeSmart. “We’re at the leading edge of social and technology trends.”

Millennial lure:  The upscale marijuana shop Vela (it’s legal here!), with gleaming counters and an on-site processing lab, was labeled “the Louis Vuitton of weed stores” by none other than Snoop Dogg.

5. Houston, TX

Median home price: $310,000

Percentage of income needed to buy a home: 36%

Unemployment rate: 5.4%

Houston, TX

CrackerClips/iStock

Good news for broke millennials: A paycheck in Houston stretches further than in other metros. Houston has the second-highest pay on our list, at $62,300, after adjusting for the cost of living, trailing only San Jose, according to Forbes. Plus, Texas is one of the only seven states with no income tax.

Granted, you may well find yourself fighting through Houston traffic, but several master-planned communities in the suburbs mix residential homes with businesses, so you may not even need to head downtown.

“Restaurants, bars, shops—it almost feels like an urban setting. It’s a very neat trend that’s going to take off,” says Cheri Fama, president of John Daugherty Realtors.

Millennial lure:  One of Houston’s more eccentric tourist attractions is the Beer Can House—the odd brainchild of retired upholsterer John Milkovisch, who covered his home with more than 50,000 flattened cans, bottles, and caps.

6. Los Angeles, CA

Median home price: $672,000

Percentage of income needed to buy a home: 64%

Unemployment rate: 4.7%

Los Angeles rooftop

Superb Images/Getty Images

Los Angeles is still “La La Land” for young people dreaming of a Hollywood career, waiting for that life-changing phone call while writing in a café, waiting tables, or driving for Lyft.

“Yes, a lot of people who want to break into the business still come here,” says Gwen Lane, a 33-year-old millennial who runs the blog The LA Girl. “For creatives, it’s such a good place to be.”

But a more recent arrival, the tech industry, is also making itself known—especially the stretch of ocean-adjacent Westside known as “Silicon Beach.” Here you’ll find the parent company of Snapchat; virtual reality hardware/software producer Oculus; and a major outpost of Google.

And despite a median home price of $672,000, there are still pockets of L.A. that are affordable. Northeast neighborhoods like Highland Park and Atwater Village, once dismissed as the boonies, are now among the trendiest choices for laying down roots. Downtown L.A. is vibrant again, and the newly expanded metro system offers options for getting around without a car. For even lower price tags, South Los Angeles is worth considering—the area is going through major changes, with new outdoor plazas, a farmers market, public gardens, and more than 1,000 apartments and condos.

Millennial lure: The Whiskey a Go Go, once the hometown club of the Doors, is still one of the country’s best joints to see up-and-coming bands.

7. Buffalo, NY

Median home price: $158,000

Percentage of income needed to buy a home: 23%

Unemployment rate: 5.6%

Buffalo’s inexpensive housing—the median home price is only $158,000—is particularly attractive to young people carrying mounds of college debt. Jobs are flowing in, too. Elon Musk’s SolarCity factory alone, a solar energy equipment supplier, promises 3,000 jobs.

“It’s a city where young people can make their presence felt, whereas in large cities like New York, it’s hard to make an impact,” says E. Frits Abell, chief operating officer of Green Machines, an eco-friendly machine manufacturer in Buffalo.

“Buffalo has a very conducive environment for entrepreneurs … people are also involved in charities, spend time fixing neighbors’ homes, or volunteer with refugee communities to make a positive social impact here.”

Among cities of similar size, Buffalo has a remarkable selection of cultural attractions. And after extensive renovation over the last decade or so, Buffalo has turned its waterfront into a recreation zone for skating and curling.

Millennial lure:  Buffalo’s Turkey Trot is the oldest annual public footrace in the nation. The 8K run was first held all the way back in 1896.

8. Albany, NY

Median home price: $250,000

Percentage of income needed to buy a home: 27%

Unemployment rate: 4.5%

New York State Museum in Albany, NY

DebraMillet/iStock

Albany, one of America’s first cities, is embracing a shining new future. Faded industrial districts in North Albany have become thriving enclaves, with colorful street life. The historic downtown of the state capital has witnessed a resurgence, with enough bars, hotels, and restaurants to justify a hipster’s guide to downtown.

“Albany is kicking it with the micro-brewery and cider business,” says Bill Pettit, a landscape painter who has lived in Albany since 1988. Pettit works with local art galleries and aspiring young artists for 1st Friday, a monthly event disseminating arts and culture throughout the city.

Albany has six colleges, including the State University of New York at Albany. Until recently, graduates vamoosed for better jobs, but now that the city has rebranded itself as a budding tech hub, many choose to stay. Companies like IBM and GlobalFoundries have set up research centers here, and the city is expected to fill 1,180 new software jobs by 2020, according to the New York Department of Labor.

Millennial lure:  There’s a surprisingly vibrant local indie band scene here. Really.

9. San Francisco, CA

Median home price: $849,000

Percentage of income needed to buy a home: 56%

Unemployment rate: 3.7%

The old adage goes, “San Francisco is a place where young people come to retire.” It’s less true today, given that the cost of living is freakishly high—median rent for a one-bedroom is $3,270, and the median price of a home is $849,000. Now the city is filling up with ambitious young tech folks who aren’t retiring anytime soon.

The young vibe is found in hoodies, ping-pong tables, and beer-stocked fridges in the offices of Airbnb, Pinterest, and lesser-known startups. It’s also present at company IPO parties or 20-something meetups in warehouse-turned-event spaces like the Folsom Street Foundry.

The whole city is basically a giant adult playground. Visit the Academy of Sciences with a drink in your hand during NightLife Thursdays, lie in Dolores Park on a sunny summer day and consider buying a marijuana-laced lollipop, or join a citywide scavenger hunt with your friends.

“It’s the best city ever for young designers,” says Lisa Zhang, 26, who studies interactive design at Academy of Art University. “I see inspiration everywhere, on streets, at bus stations. … I can’t imagine myself living anywhere else.”

Millennial lure: Everything.

10. San Jose, CA

Median home price: $950,000

Percentage of income needed to buy a home: 53%

Unemployment rate: 3.7%

Yes, housing prices in Silicon Valley are insane. With a median price of $950,000, a down payment in the San Jose metro market could buy you an entire house in much of the United States.

Perhaps the generous paychecks of Valley tech companies provide some justification. Year after year, ambitious young engineers come to work for companies like Apple, Cisco, and Netflix, and..

from DIYS http://ift.tt/2n9ilLy

[exfrenchdorsl4p0a1]

Millennial Magnets: The Top 10 Cities Where Young People Want to Be

Orlando, FL (lightkey/iStock)

What do millennials want, anyway? Marketing execs all over the country have been tripping over themselves for years to find the answer. After all, as America’s largest and youngest adult generation, millennials have an insane amount of collective purchasing power, the power to move markets according to their whims—and the ability to do so for decades to come.

As a group, they’re also somewhat elusive. Are they aimless or driven? Apathetic or activist? IPhone or Android? Taco Bell or Chipotle?

Well, here’s something we do know: In ever-increasing numbers, they’re home buyers. In fact, they’re the biggest group of ’em in the nation. Sure, they’re devotees of the borrowers’ economy—eagerly sharing bikes, music, rides, vacation places, you name it—but like most generations before them, they’re hungry for home ownership. Buyers under 36 now make up the biggest chunk of Americans signing on the line that is dotted: 34% of all home buyers, according to the National Association of Realtors®. And they make up 64% of first-time home buyers (even though they only account for 13% of the population).

So if millennials are checking out your hometown, you’d best pay attention.

“There are some very specific things you see millennials looking for in a community right now,” says Jason Dorsey, chief strategy officer for the Center for Generational Kinetics, a marketing firm in Austin, TX. On the list of must-haves: supershort commutes, and amenities like parks, cultural centers, and restaurants. And yeah, maybe even some really fun stuff to do on a Thursday night. That’s because many of these 25- to 34-year-olds are delaying marriage and even a serious career, and want to enjoy the single life, he says.

As Dorsey points out, they also face an UberXL load of unique financial challenges: “College debt, thinner credit history, less savings—and all at a time when home prices have gone up. For many millennials, it’s much harder to buy houses.” On their path to ownership, they’re very much on the prowl for a bargain.

So what are the places that pique millennials’ interest? The realtor.com economic data team analyzed the 60 largest U.S. cities and how much millennials were checking out listings in those areas, compared with the national average, from August 2016 to February 2017.

Ready? Let’s take a closer look at these millennial magnets.

1. Salt Lake City, UT

Median home price: $360,000

Percentage of income needed to buy a home*: 30%

Unemployment rate: 2.9%

Salt Lake City

AndreyKrav/iStock

Salt Lake City has a lot more going for it than Mormons, the first KFC franchise (1952), and a big, briny body of water (the Great Salt Lake). There’s also a burgeoning tech scene that lures young people to companies like Adobe and Electronic Arts. In fact, the city has come to be known as “Silicon Slopes,” with homes at one-third of Silicon Valley prices and plenty of sweet skiing and boarding a short ride away.

Even those outside the tech biz have a good chance of snagging a nice gig—Salt Lake has the lowest unemployment rate of all the markets on our list, at 2.9%, well below the national unemployment rate of 4.7%.

And if your dream job hasn’t yet kicked in, there are plenty of cheap, fun things to do.

“This is an extremely livable, affordable city, especially for those that are just starting out,” says Brook Bernier, a Realtor with Equity Real Estate.

Adventure awaits in SLC’s many bike lanes and mountain bike trails. There’s even a Bike Prom (a costumed bike rally party) and Tour de Brewtah, which combines two of the (clichéd, but true) great loves of millennials: bikes and micro-brewed beers. The weekly farmers market even offers valet bike parking.

Millennial lure:  SLC may be known as a conservative place, but it was named the “Gayest City in the USA” in 2012 by the LGBT magazine the Advocate. It was ranked eighth last year.

2. Miami, FL

Median home price: $370,000

Percentage of income needed to buy a home: 49%

Unemployment rate: 5.1%

It’s not just sun birds or aging boomers who flock to Florida in droves, fleeing cold weather. So do millennials! The sunshine is nice, but young folk are attracted to a hopping scene with relatively affordable homes and decent job opportunities. Many find employment in tourism, international trading, and construction—the entire region is enjoying a building boom.

It’s not all work and no play, though. While the South Beach is known for its club scene, events like Calle Ocho Festival, Carnaval Miami, and Art Basel Miami  turn the entire city into a party. In addition to numerous art galleries and music venues, the Adrienne Arsht Center was opened in 2006 as the country’s second-largest performing arts center (after NYC’s Metropolitan Opera House).

Up-and-coming neighborhoods like Little Haiti and North Miami are getting fresh interest from young buyers, says Realtor Giovanna Calimano, of Yes Real Estate.

“A lot of these areas are developing little by little,” she says. “They’re hot because the houses there right now aren’t overpriced. People can live there while the communities are still developing and improving.”

Millennial lure: Beach culture—fun, sexy, and cheap (or, actually, free). What’s not to love?

3. Orlando, FL

Median home price: $279,000

Percentage of income needed to buy a home: 34%

Unemployment rate: 4.4%

Bike to Work Day in Orlando

CindyMurray/iStock

There’s much more to Orlando than theme parks, oversized mice, and sleepy time-shares overlooking golf courses. In fact, this fast-growing metro is getting a lot of serious attention from young people.

“You’ve got the best of both worlds,” says Realtor Lorisa Motko of Charles Rutenberg Realty. “You’ve got the beaches 45 minutes in any direction, and you have plenty of entertainment and nightlife for millennials.”

New mixed-use developments designed to appeal to both city-loving millennials and baby boomers (hey, what happened to Gen Xers, anyway?), many of which are pedestrian- and bicycle-friendly. Thornton Park, just east of downtown, has also become popular among younger homeowners seeking a unique historic neighborhood with cobbled streets and lined with bungalows.

The Orlando metro area leads Florida in job creation, and added 54,600 jobs in January, according to the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity.

Millennial lure:  Orlando was the birthplace of the megastar boy bands, ‘NSync and the Backstreet Boys, which dominated the airwaves back in the ’90s. And, in case you hadn’t heard, the ’90s are cool again … with millennials. Go figure.

4. Seattle, WA

Median home price: $455,000

Percentage of income needed to buy a home: 36%

Unemployment rate: 4.2%

Seattle checks off quite a few items on the millennial home buyer’s list: well-paid jobs (at Amazon, Microsoft, and Costco) quality coffeehouses around almost every corner, more than 50 bike trails, and some of the country’s best tree-lined streets.

It’s also a welcoming place for nonconforming young people. The city had one of the nation’s biggest turnouts for the Women’s March on Jan. 21, hometown titan Starbucks announced a plan to hire refugees, and it’s the first major U.S. metro to approve a $15 minimum wage.

“Seattle is hip, it’s current, it’s progressive,” says Chris Bajuk, a broker at HomeSmart. “We’re at the leading edge of social and technology trends.”

Millennial lure:  The upscale marijuana shop Vela (it’s legal here!), with gleaming counters and an on-site processing lab, was labeled “the Louis Vuitton of weed stores” by none other than Snoop Dogg.

5. Houston, TX

Median home price: $310,000

Percentage of income needed to buy a home: 36%

Unemployment rate: 5.4%

Houston, TX

CrackerClips/iStock

Good news for broke millennials: A paycheck in Houston stretches further than in other metros. Houston has the second-highest pay on our list, at $62,300, after adjusting for the cost of living, trailing only San Jose, according to Forbes. Plus, Texas is one of the only seven states with no income tax.

Granted, you may well find yourself fighting through Houston traffic, but several master-planned communities in the suburbs mix residential homes with businesses, so you may not even need to head downtown.

“Restaurants, bars, shops—it almost feels like an urban setting. It’s a very neat trend that’s going to take off,” says Cheri Fama, president of John Daugherty Realtors.

Millennial lure:  One of Houston’s more eccentric tourist attractions is the Beer Can House—the odd brainchild of retired upholsterer John Milkovisch, who covered his home with more than 50,000 flattened cans, bottles, and caps.

6. Los Angeles, CA

Median home price: $672,000

Percentage of income needed to buy a home: 64%

Unemployment rate: 4.7%

Los Angeles rooftop

Superb Images/Getty Images

Los Angeles is still “La La Land” for young people dreaming of a Hollywood career, waiting for that life-changing phone call while writing in a café, waiting tables, or driving for Lyft.

“Yes, a lot of people who want to break into the business still come here,” says Gwen Lane, a 33-year-old millennial who runs the blog The LA Girl. “For creatives, it’s such a good place to be.”

But a more recent arrival, the tech industry, is also making itself known—especially the stretch of ocean-adjacent Westside known as “Silicon Beach.” Here you’ll find the parent company of Snapchat; virtual reality hardware/software producer Oculus; and a major outpost of Google.

And despite a median home price of $672,000, there are still pockets of L.A. that are affordable. Northeast neighborhoods like Highland Park and Atwater Village, once dismissed as the boonies, are now among the trendiest choices for laying down roots. Downtown L.A. is vibrant again, and the newly expanded metro system offers options for getting around without a car. For even lower price tags, South Los Angeles is worth considering—the area is going through major changes, with new outdoor plazas, a farmers market, public gardens, and more than 1,000 apartments and condos.

Millennial lure: The Whiskey a Go Go, once the hometown club of the Doors, is still one of the country’s best joints to see up-and-coming bands.

7. Buffalo, NY

Median home price: $158,000

Percentage of income needed to buy a home: 23%

Unemployment rate: 5.6%

Buffalo’s inexpensive housing—the median home price is only $158,000—is particularly attractive to young people carrying mounds of college debt. Jobs are flowing in, too. Elon Musk’s SolarCity factory alone, a solar energy equipment supplier, promises 3,000 jobs.

“It’s a city where young people can make their presence felt, whereas in large cities like New York, it’s hard to make an impact,” says E. Frits Abell, chief operating officer of Green Machines, an eco-friendly machine manufacturer in Buffalo.

“Buffalo has a very conducive environment for entrepreneurs … people are also involved in charities, spend time fixing neighbors’ homes, or volunteer with refugee communities to make a positive social impact here.”

Among cities of similar size, Buffalo has a remarkable selection of cultural attractions. And after extensive renovation over the last decade or so, Buffalo has turned its waterfront into a recreation zone for skating and curling.

Millennial lure:  Buffalo’s Turkey Trot is the oldest annual public footrace in the nation. The 8K run was first held all the way back in 1896.

8. Albany, NY

Median home price: $250,000

Percentage of income needed to buy a home: 27%

Unemployment rate: 4.5%

New York State Museum in Albany, NY

DebraMillet/iStock

Albany, one of America’s first cities, is embracing a shining new future. Faded industrial districts in North Albany have become thriving enclaves, with colorful street life. The historic downtown of the state capital has witnessed a resurgence, with enough bars, hotels, and restaurants to justify a hipster’s guide to downtown.

“Albany is kicking it with the micro-brewery and cider business,” says Bill Pettit, a landscape painter who has lived in Albany since 1988. Pettit works with local art galleries and aspiring young artists for 1st Friday, a monthly event disseminating arts and culture throughout the city.

Albany has six colleges, including the State University of New York at Albany. Until recently, graduates vamoosed for better jobs, but now that the city has rebranded itself as a budding tech hub, many choose to stay. Companies like IBM and GlobalFoundries have set up research centers here, and the city is expected to fill 1,180 new software jobs by 2020, according to the New York Department of Labor.

Millennial lure:  There’s a surprisingly vibrant local indie band scene here. Really.

9. San Francisco, CA

Median home price: $849,000

Percentage of income needed to buy a home: 56%

Unemployment rate: 3.7%

The old adage goes, “San Francisco is a place where young people come to retire.” It’s less true today, given that the cost of living is freakishly high—median rent for a one-bedroom is $3,270, and the median price of a home is $849,000. Now the city is filling up with ambitious young tech folks who aren’t retiring anytime soon.

The young vibe is found in hoodies, ping-pong tables, and beer-stocked fridges in the offices of Airbnb, Pinterest, and lesser-known startups. It’s also present at company IPO parties or 20-something meetups in warehouse-turned-event spaces like the Folsom Street Foundry.

The whole city is basically a giant adult playground. Visit the Academy of Sciences with a drink in your hand during NightLife Thursdays, lie in Dolores Park on a sunny summer day and consider buying a marijuana-laced lollipop, or join a citywide scavenger hunt with your friends.

“It’s the best city ever for young designers,” says Lisa Zhang, 26, who studies interactive design at Academy of Art University. “I see inspiration everywhere, on streets, at bus stations. … I can’t imagine myself living anywhere else.”

Millennial lure: Everything.

10. San Jose, CA

Median home price: $950,000

Percentage of income needed to buy a home: 53%

Unemployment rate: 3.7%

Yes, housing prices in Silicon Valley are insane. With a median price of $950,000, a down payment in the San Jose metro market could buy you an entire house in much of the United States.

Perhaps the generous paychecks of Valley tech companies provide some justification. Year after year, ambitious young engineers come to work for companies like Apple, Cisco, and Netflix, and..

from DIYS http://ift.tt/2n9ilLy

[rtscrndr53704]

Millennial Magnets: The Top 10 Cities Where Young People Want to Be

Orlando, FL (lightkey/iStock)

What do millennials want, anyway? Marketing execs all over the country have been tripping over themselves for years to find the answer. After all, as America’s largest and youngest adult generation, millennials have an insane amount of collective purchasing power, the power to move markets according to their whims—and the ability to do so for decades to come.

As a group, they’re also somewhat elusive. Are they aimless or driven? Apathetic or activist? IPhone or Android? Taco Bell or Chipotle?

Well, here’s something we do know: In ever-increasing numbers, they’re home buyers. In fact, they’re the biggest group of ’em in the nation. Sure, they’re devotees of the borrowers’ economy—eagerly sharing bikes, music, rides, vacation places, you name it—but like most generations before them, they’re hungry for home ownership. Buyers under 36 now make up the biggest chunk of Americans signing on the line that is dotted: 34% of all home buyers, according to the National Association of Realtors®. And they make up 64% of first-time home buyers (even though they only account for 13% of the population).

So if millennials are checking out your hometown, you’d best pay attention.

“There are some very specific things you see millennials looking for in a community right now,” says Jason Dorsey, chief strategy officer for the Center for Generational Kinetics, a marketing firm in Austin, TX. On the list of must-haves: supershort commutes, and amenities like parks, cultural centers, and restaurants. And yeah, maybe even some really fun stuff to do on a Thursday night. That’s because many of these 25- to 34-year-olds are delaying marriage and even a serious career, and want to enjoy the single life, he says.

As Dorsey points out, they also face an UberXL load of unique financial challenges: “College debt, thinner credit history, less savings—and all at a time when home prices have gone up. For many millennials, it’s much harder to buy houses.” On their path to ownership, they’re very much on the prowl for a bargain.

So what are the places that pique millennials’ interest? The realtor.com economic data team analyzed the 60 largest U.S. cities and how much millennials were checking out listings in those areas, compared with the national average, from August 2016 to February 2017.

Ready? Let’s take a closer look at these millennial magnets.

1. Salt Lake City, UT

Median home price: $360,000

Percentage of income needed to buy a home*: 30%

Unemployment rate: 2.9%

Salt Lake City

AndreyKrav/iStock

Salt Lake City has a lot more going for it than Mormons, the first KFC franchise (1952), and a big, briny body of water (the Great Salt Lake). There’s also a burgeoning tech scene that lures young people to companies like Adobe and Electronic Arts. In fact, the city has come to be known as “Silicon Slopes,” with homes at one-third of Silicon Valley prices and plenty of sweet skiing and boarding a short ride away.

Even those outside the tech biz have a good chance of snagging a nice gig—Salt Lake has the lowest unemployment rate of all the markets on our list, at 2.9%, well below the national unemployment rate of 4.7%.

And if your dream job hasn’t yet kicked in, there are plenty of cheap, fun things to do.

“This is an extremely livable, affordable city, especially for those that are just starting out,” says Brook Bernier, a Realtor with Equity Real Estate.

Adventure awaits in SLC’s many bike lanes and mountain bike trails. There’s even a Bike Prom (a costumed bike rally party) and Tour de Brewtah, which combines two of the (clichéd, but true) great loves of millennials: bikes and micro-brewed beers. The weekly farmers market even offers valet bike parking.

Millennial lure:  SLC may be known as a conservative place, but it was named the “Gayest City in the USA” in 2012 by the LGBT magazine the Advocate. It was ranked eighth last year.

2. Miami, FL

Median home price: $370,000

Percentage of income needed to buy a home: 49%

Unemployment rate: 5.1%

It’s not just sun birds or aging boomers who flock to Florida in droves, fleeing cold weather. So do millennials! The sunshine is nice, but young folk are attracted to a hopping scene with relatively affordable homes and decent job opportunities. Many find employment in tourism, international trading, and construction—the entire region is enjoying a building boom.

It’s not all work and no play, though. While the South Beach is known for its club scene, events like Calle Ocho Festival, Carnaval Miami, and Art Basel Miami  turn the entire city into a party. In addition to numerous art galleries and music venues, the Adrienne Arsht Center was opened in 2006 as the country’s second-largest performing arts center (after NYC’s Metropolitan Opera House).

Up-and-coming neighborhoods like Little Haiti and North Miami are getting fresh interest from young buyers, says Realtor Giovanna Calimano, of Yes Real Estate.

“A lot of these areas are developing little by little,” she says. “They’re hot because the houses there right now aren’t overpriced. People can live there while the communities are still developing and improving.”

Millennial lure: Beach culture—fun, sexy, and cheap (or, actually, free). What’s not to love?

3. Orlando, FL

Median home price: $279,000

Percentage of income needed to buy a home: 34%

Unemployment rate: 4.4%

Bike to Work Day in Orlando

CindyMurray/iStock

There’s much more to Orlando than theme parks, oversized mice, and sleepy time-shares overlooking golf courses. In fact, this fast-growing metro is getting a lot of serious attention from young people.

“You’ve got the best of both worlds,” says Realtor Lorisa Motko of Charles Rutenberg Realty. “You’ve got the beaches 45 minutes in any direction, and you have plenty of entertainment and nightlife for millennials.”

New mixed-use developments designed to appeal to both city-loving millennials and baby boomers (hey, what happened to Gen Xers, anyway?), many of which are pedestrian- and bicycle-friendly. Thornton Park, just east of downtown, has also become popular among younger homeowners seeking a unique historic neighborhood with cobbled streets and lined with bungalows.

The Orlando metro area leads Florida in job creation, and added 54,600 jobs in January, according to the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity.

Millennial lure:  Orlando was the birthplace of the megastar boy bands, ‘NSync and the Backstreet Boys, which dominated the airwaves back in the ’90s. And, in case you hadn’t heard, the ’90s are cool again … with millennials. Go figure.

4. Seattle, WA

Median home price: $455,000

Percentage of income needed to buy a home: 36%

Unemployment rate: 4.2%

Seattle checks off quite a few items on the millennial home buyer’s list: well-paid jobs (at Amazon, Microsoft, and Costco) quality coffeehouses around almost every corner, more than 50 bike trails, and some of the country’s best tree-lined streets.

It’s also a welcoming place for nonconforming young people. The city had one of the nation’s biggest turnouts for the Women’s March on Jan. 21, hometown titan Starbucks announced a plan to hire refugees, and it’s the first major U.S. metro to approve a $15 minimum wage.

“Seattle is hip, it’s current, it’s progressive,” says Chris Bajuk, a broker at HomeSmart. “We’re at the leading edge of social and technology trends.”

Millennial lure:  The upscale marijuana shop Vela (it’s legal here!), with gleaming counters and an on-site processing lab, was labeled “the Louis Vuitton of weed stores” by none other than Snoop Dogg.

5. Houston, TX

Median home price: $310,000

Percentage of income needed to buy a home: 36%

Unemployment rate: 5.4%

Houston, TX

CrackerClips/iStock

Good news for broke millennials: A paycheck in Houston stretches further than in other metros. Houston has the second-highest pay on our list, at $62,300, after adjusting for the cost of living, trailing only San Jose, according to Forbes. Plus, Texas is one of the only seven states with no income tax.

Granted, you may well find yourself fighting through Houston traffic, but several master-planned communities in the suburbs mix residential homes with businesses, so you may not even need to head downtown.

“Restaurants, bars, shops—it almost feels like an urban setting. It’s a very neat trend that’s going to take off,” says Cheri Fama, president of John Daugherty Realtors.

Millennial lure:  One of Houston’s more eccentric tourist attractions is the Beer Can House—the odd brainchild of retired upholsterer John Milkovisch, who covered his home with more than 50,000 flattened cans, bottles, and caps.

6. Los Angeles, CA

Median home price: $672,000

Percentage of income needed to buy a home: 64%

Unemployment rate: 4.7%

Los Angeles rooftop

Superb Images/Getty Images

Los Angeles is still “La La Land” for young people dreaming of a Hollywood career, waiting for that life-changing phone call while writing in a café, waiting tables, or driving for Lyft.

“Yes, a lot of people who want to break into the business still come here,” says Gwen Lane, a 33-year-old millennial who runs the blog The LA Girl. “For creatives, it’s such a good place to be.”

But a more recent arrival, the tech industry, is also making itself known—especially the stretch of ocean-adjacent Westside known as “Silicon Beach.” Here you’ll find the parent company of Snapchat; virtual reality hardware/software producer Oculus; and a major outpost of Google.

And despite a median home price of $672,000, there are still pockets of L.A. that are affordable. Northeast neighborhoods like Highland Park and Atwater Village, once dismissed as the boonies, are now among the trendiest choices for laying down roots. Downtown L.A. is vibrant again, and the newly expanded metro system offers options for getting around without a car. For even lower price tags, South Los Angeles is worth considering—the area is going through major changes, with new outdoor plazas, a farmers market, public gardens, and more than 1,000 apartments and condos.

Millennial lure: The Whiskey a Go Go, once the hometown club of the Doors, is still one of the country’s best joints to see up-and-coming bands.

7. Buffalo, NY

Median home price: $158,000

Percentage of income needed to buy a home: 23%

Unemployment rate: 5.6%

Buffalo’s inexpensive housing—the median home price is only $158,000—is particularly attractive to young people carrying mounds of college debt. Jobs are flowing in, too. Elon Musk’s SolarCity factory alone, a solar energy equipment supplier, promises 3,000 jobs.

“It’s a city where young people can make their presence felt, whereas in large cities like New York, it’s hard to make an impact,” says E. Frits Abell, chief operating officer of Green Machines, an eco-friendly machine manufacturer in Buffalo.

“Buffalo has a very conducive environment for entrepreneurs … people are also involved in charities, spend time fixing neighbors’ homes, or volunteer with refugee communities to make a positive social impact here.”

Among cities of similar size, Buffalo has a remarkable selection of cultural attractions. And after extensive renovation over the last decade or so, Buffalo has turned its waterfront into a recreation zone for skating and curling.

Millennial lure:  Buffalo’s Turkey Trot is the oldest annual public footrace in the nation. The 8K run was first held all the way back in 1896.

8. Albany, NY

Median home price: $250,000

Percentage of income needed to buy a home: 27%

Unemployment rate: 4.5%

New York State Museum in Albany, NY

DebraMillet/iStock

Albany, one of America’s first cities, is embracing a shining new future. Faded industrial districts in North Albany have become thriving enclaves, with colorful street life. The historic downtown of the state capital has witnessed a resurgence, with enough bars, hotels, and restaurants to justify a hipster’s guide to downtown.

“Albany is kicking it with the micro-brewery and cider business,” says Bill Pettit, a landscape painter who has lived in Albany since 1988. Pettit works with local art galleries and aspiring young artists for 1st Friday, a monthly event disseminating arts and culture throughout the city.

Albany has six colleges, including the State University of New York at Albany. Until recently, graduates vamoosed for better jobs, but now that the city has rebranded itself as a budding tech hub, many choose to stay. Companies like IBM and GlobalFoundries have set up research centers here, and the city is expected to fill 1,180 new software jobs by 2020, according to the New York Department of Labor.

Millennial lure:  There’s a surprisingly vibrant local indie band scene here. Really.

9. San Francisco, CA

Median home price: $849,000

Percentage of income needed to buy a home: 56%

Unemployment rate: 3.7%

The old adage goes, “San Francisco is a place where young people come to retire.” It’s less true today, given that the cost of living is freakishly high—median rent for a one-bedroom is $3,270, and the median price of a home is $849,000. Now the city is filling up with ambitious young tech folks who aren’t retiring anytime soon.

The young vibe is found in hoodies, ping-pong tables, and beer-stocked fridges in the offices of Airbnb, Pinterest, and lesser-known startups. It’s also present at company IPO parties or 20-something meetups in warehouse-turned-event spaces like the Folsom Street Foundry.

The whole city is basically a giant adult playground. Visit the Academy of Sciences with a drink in your hand during NightLife Thursdays, lie in Dolores Park on a sunny summer day and consider buying a marijuana-laced lollipop, or join a citywide scavenger hunt with your friends.

“It’s the best city ever for young designers,” says Lisa Zhang, 26, who studies interactive design at Academy of Art University. “I see inspiration everywhere, on streets, at bus stations. … I can’t imagine myself living anywhere else.”

Millennial lure: Everything.

10. San Jose, CA

Median home price: $950,000

Percentage of income needed to buy a home: 53%

Unemployment rate: 3.7%

Yes, housing prices in Silicon Valley are insane. With a median price of $950,000, a down payment in the San Jose metro market could buy you an entire house in much of the United States.

Perhaps the generous paychecks of Valley tech companies provide some justification. Year after year, ambitious young engineers come to work for companies like Apple, Cisco, and Netflix, and..

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Millennial Magnets: The Top 10 Cities Where Young People Want to Be

Orlando, FL (lightkey/iStock)

What do millennials want, anyway? Marketing execs all over the country have been tripping over themselves for years to find the answer. After all, as America’s largest and youngest adult generation, millennials have an insane amount of collective purchasing power, the power to move markets according to their whims—and the ability to do so for decades to come.

As a group, they’re also somewhat elusive. Are they aimless or driven? Apathetic or activist? IPhone or Android? Taco Bell or Chipotle?

Well, here’s something we do know: In ever-increasing numbers, they’re home buyers. In fact, they’re the biggest group of ’em in the nation. Sure, they’re devotees of the borrowers’ economy—eagerly sharing bikes, music, rides, vacation places, you name it—but like most generations before them, they’re hungry for home ownership. Buyers under 36 now make up the biggest chunk of Americans signing on the line that is dotted: 34% of all home buyers, according to the National Association of Realtors®. And they make up 64% of first-time home buyers (even though they only account for 13% of the population).

So if millennials are checking out your hometown, you’d best pay attention.

“There are some very specific things you see millennials looking for in a community right now,” says Jason Dorsey, chief strategy officer for the Center for Generational Kinetics, a marketing firm in Austin, TX. On the list of must-haves: supershort commutes, and amenities like parks, cultural centers, and restaurants. And yeah, maybe even some really fun stuff to do on a Thursday night. That’s because many of these 25- to 34-year-olds are delaying marriage and even a serious career, and want to enjoy the single life, he says.

As Dorsey points out, they also face an UberXL load of unique financial challenges: “College debt, thinner credit history, less savings—and all at a time when home prices have gone up. For many millennials, it’s much harder to buy houses.” On their path to ownership, they’re very much on the prowl for a bargain.

So what are the places that pique millennials’ interest? The realtor.com economic data team analyzed the 60 largest U.S. cities and how much millennials were checking out listings in those areas, compared with the national average, from August 2016 to February 2017.

Ready? Let’s take a closer look at these millennial magnets.

1. Salt Lake City, UT

Median home price: $360,000

Percentage of income needed to buy a home*: 30%

Unemployment rate: 2.9%

Salt Lake City

AndreyKrav/iStock

Salt Lake City has a lot more going for it than Mormons, the first KFC franchise (1952), and a big, briny body of water (the Great Salt Lake). There’s also a burgeoning tech scene that lures young people to companies like Adobe and Electronic Arts. In fact, the city has come to be known as “Silicon Slopes,” with homes at one-third of Silicon Valley prices and plenty of sweet skiing and boarding a short ride away.

Even those outside the tech biz have a good chance of snagging a nice gig—Salt Lake has the lowest unemployment rate of all the markets on our list, at 2.9%, well below the national unemployment rate of 4.7%.

And if your dream job hasn’t yet kicked in, there are plenty of cheap, fun things to do.

“This is an extremely livable, affordable city, especially for those that are just starting out,” says Brook Bernier, a Realtor with Equity Real Estate.

Adventure awaits in SLC’s many bike lanes and mountain bike trails. There’s even a Bike Prom (a costumed bike rally party) and Tour de Brewtah, which combines two of the (clichéd, but true) great loves of millennials: bikes and micro-brewed beers. The weekly farmers market even offers valet bike parking.

Millennial lure:  SLC may be known as a conservative place, but it was named the “Gayest City in the USA” in 2012 by the LGBT magazine the Advocate. It was ranked eighth last year.

2. Miami, FL

Median home price: $370,000

Percentage of income needed to buy a home: 49%

Unemployment rate: 5.1%

It’s not just sun birds or aging boomers who flock to Florida in droves, fleeing cold weather. So do millennials! The sunshine is nice, but young folk are attracted to a hopping scene with relatively affordable homes and decent job opportunities. Many find employment in tourism, international trading, and construction—the entire region is enjoying a building boom.

It’s not all work and no play, though. While the South Beach is known for its club scene, events like Calle Ocho Festival, Carnaval Miami, and Art Basel Miami  turn the entire city into a party. In addition to numerous art galleries and music venues, the Adrienne Arsht Center was opened in 2006 as the country’s second-largest performing arts center (after NYC’s Metropolitan Opera House).

Up-and-coming neighborhoods like Little Haiti and North Miami are getting fresh interest from young buyers, says Realtor Giovanna Calimano, of Yes Real Estate.

“A lot of these areas are developing little by little,” she says. “They’re hot because the houses there right now aren’t overpriced. People can live there while the communities are still developing and improving.”

Millennial lure: Beach culture—fun, sexy, and cheap (or, actually, free). What’s not to love?

3. Orlando, FL

Median home price: $279,000

Percentage of income needed to buy a home: 34%

Unemployment rate: 4.4%

Bike to Work Day in Orlando

CindyMurray/iStock

There’s much more to Orlando than theme parks, oversized mice, and sleepy time-shares overlooking golf courses. In fact, this fast-growing metro is getting a lot of serious attention from young people.

“You’ve got the best of both worlds,” says Realtor Lorisa Motko of Charles Rutenberg Realty. “You’ve got the beaches 45 minutes in any direction, and you have plenty of entertainment and nightlife for millennials.”

New mixed-use developments designed to appeal to both city-loving millennials and baby boomers (hey, what happened to Gen Xers, anyway?), many of which are pedestrian- and bicycle-friendly. Thornton Park, just east of downtown, has also become popular among younger homeowners seeking a unique historic neighborhood with cobbled streets and lined with bungalows.

The Orlando metro area leads Florida in job creation, and added 54,600 jobs in January, according to the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity.

Millennial lure:  Orlando was the birthplace of the megastar boy bands, ‘NSync and the Backstreet Boys, which dominated the airwaves back in the ’90s. And, in case you hadn’t heard, the ’90s are cool again … with millennials. Go figure.

4. Seattle, WA

Median home price: $455,000

Percentage of income needed to buy a home: 36%

Unemployment rate: 4.2%

Seattle checks off quite a few items on the millennial home buyer’s list: well-paid jobs (at Amazon, Microsoft, and Costco) quality coffeehouses around almost every corner, more than 50 bike trails, and some of the country’s best tree-lined streets.

It’s also a welcoming place for nonconforming young people. The city had one of the nation’s biggest turnouts for the Women’s March on Jan. 21, hometown titan Starbucks announced a plan to hire refugees, and it’s the first major U.S. metro to approve a $15 minimum wage.

“Seattle is hip, it’s current, it’s progressive,” says Chris Bajuk, a broker at HomeSmart. “We’re at the leading edge of social and technology trends.”

Millennial lure:  The upscale marijuana shop Vela (it’s legal here!), with gleaming counters and an on-site processing lab, was labeled “the Louis Vuitton of weed stores” by none other than Snoop Dogg.

5. Houston, TX

Median home price: $310,000

Percentage of income needed to buy a home: 36%

Unemployment rate: 5.4%

Houston, TX

CrackerClips/iStock

Good news for broke millennials: A paycheck in Houston stretches further than in other metros. Houston has the second-highest pay on our list, at $62,300, after adjusting for the cost of living, trailing only San Jose, according to Forbes. Plus, Texas is one of the only seven states with no income tax.

Granted, you may well find yourself fighting through Houston traffic, but several master-planned communities in the suburbs mix residential homes with businesses, so you may not even need to head downtown.

“Restaurants, bars, shops—it almost feels like an urban setting. It’s a very neat trend that’s going to take off,” says Cheri Fama, president of John Daugherty Realtors.

Millennial lure:  One of Houston’s more eccentric tourist attractions is the Beer Can House—the odd brainchild of retired upholsterer John Milkovisch, who covered his home with more than 50,000 flattened cans, bottles, and caps.

6. Los Angeles, CA

Median home price: $672,000

Percentage of income needed to buy a home: 64%

Unemployment rate: 4.7%

Los Angeles rooftop

Superb Images/Getty Images

Los Angeles is still “La La Land” for young people dreaming of a Hollywood career, waiting for that life-changing phone call while writing in a café, waiting tables, or driving for Lyft.

“Yes, a lot of people who want to break into the business still come here,” says Gwen Lane, a 33-year-old millennial who runs the blog The LA Girl. “For creatives, it’s such a good place to be.”

But a more recent arrival, the tech industry, is also making itself known—especially the stretch of ocean-adjacent Westside known as “Silicon Beach.” Here you’ll find the parent company of Snapchat; virtual reality hardware/software producer Oculus; and a major outpost of Google.

And despite a median home price of $672,000, there are still pockets of L.A. that are affordable. Northeast neighborhoods like Highland Park and Atwater Village, once dismissed as the boonies, are now among the trendiest choices for laying down roots. Downtown L.A. is vibrant again, and the newly expanded metro system offers options for getting around without a car. For even lower price tags, South Los Angeles is worth considering—the area is going through major changes, with new outdoor plazas, a farmers market, public gardens, and more than 1,000 apartments and condos.

Millennial lure: The Whiskey a Go Go, once the hometown club of the Doors, is still one of the country’s best joints to see up-and-coming bands.

7. Buffalo, NY

Median home price: $158,000

Percentage of income needed to buy a home: 23%

Unemployment rate: 5.6%

Buffalo’s inexpensive housing—the median home price is only $158,000—is particularly attractive to young people carrying mounds of college debt. Jobs are flowing in, too. Elon Musk’s SolarCity factory alone, a solar energy equipment supplier, promises 3,000 jobs.

“It’s a city where young people can make their presence felt, whereas in large cities like New York, it’s hard to make an impact,” says E. Frits Abell, chief operating officer of Green Machines, an eco-friendly machine manufacturer in Buffalo.

“Buffalo has a very conducive environment for entrepreneurs … people are also involved in charities, spend time fixing neighbors’ homes, or volunteer with refugee communities to make a positive social impact here.”

Among cities of similar size, Buffalo has a remarkable selection of cultural attractions. And after extensive renovation over the last decade or so, Buffalo has turned its waterfront into a recreation zone for skating and curling.

Millennial lure:  Buffalo’s Turkey Trot is the oldest annual public footrace in the nation. The 8K run was first held all the way back in 1896.

8. Albany, NY

Median home price: $250,000

Percentage of income needed to buy a home: 27%

Unemployment rate: 4.5%

New York State Museum in Albany, NY

DebraMillet/iStock

Albany, one of America’s first cities, is embracing a shining new future. Faded industrial districts in North Albany have become thriving enclaves, with colorful street life. The historic downtown of the state capital has witnessed a resurgence, with enough bars, hotels, and restaurants to justify a hipster’s guide to downtown.

“Albany is kicking it with the micro-brewery and cider business,” says Bill Pettit, a landscape painter who has lived in Albany since 1988. Pettit works with local art galleries and aspiring young artists for 1st Friday, a monthly event disseminating arts and culture throughout the city.

Albany has six colleges, including the State University of New York at Albany. Until recently, graduates vamoosed for better jobs, but now that the city has rebranded itself as a budding tech hub, many choose to stay. Companies like IBM and GlobalFoundries have set up research centers here, and the city is expected to fill 1,180 new software jobs by 2020, according to the New York Department of Labor.

Millennial lure:  There’s a surprisingly vibrant local indie band scene here. Really.

9. San Francisco, CA

Median home price: $849,000

Percentage of income needed to buy a home: 56%

Unemployment rate: 3.7%

The old adage goes, “San Francisco is a place where young people come to retire.” It’s less true today, given that the cost of living is freakishly high—median rent for a one-bedroom is $3,270, and the median price of a home is $849,000. Now the city is filling up with ambitious young tech folks who aren’t retiring anytime soon.

The young vibe is found in hoodies, ping-pong tables, and beer-stocked fridges in the offices of Airbnb, Pinterest, and lesser-known startups. It’s also present at company IPO parties or 20-something meetups in warehouse-turned-event spaces like the Folsom Street Foundry.

The whole city is basically a giant adult playground. Visit the Academy of Sciences with a drink in your hand during NightLife Thursdays, lie in Dolores Park on a sunny summer day and consider buying a marijuana-laced lollipop, or join a citywide scavenger hunt with your friends.

“It’s the best city ever for young designers,” says Lisa Zhang, 26, who studies interactive design at Academy of Art University. “I see inspiration everywhere, on streets, at bus stations. … I can’t imagine myself living anywhere else.”

Millennial lure: Everything.

10. San Jose, CA

Median home price: $950,000

Percentage of income needed to buy a home: 53%

Unemployment rate: 3.7%

Yes, housing prices in Silicon Valley are insane. With a median price of $950,000, a down payment in the San Jose metro market could buy you an entire house in much of the United States.

Perhaps the generous paychecks of Valley tech companies provide some justification. Year after year, ambitious young engineers come to work for companies like Apple, Cisco, and Netflix, and..

from DIYS http://ift.tt/2n9ilLy

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Millennial Magnets: The Top 10 Cities Where Young People Want to Be

Orlando, FL (lightkey/iStock)

What do millennials want, anyway? Marketing execs all over the country have been tripping over themselves for years to find the answer. After all, as America’s largest and youngest adult generation, millennials have an insane amount of collective purchasing power, the power to move markets according to their whims—and the ability to do so for decades to come.

As a group, they’re also somewhat elusive. Are they aimless or driven? Apathetic or activist? IPhone or Android? Taco Bell or Chipotle?

Well, here’s something we do know: In ever-increasing numbers, they’re home buyers. In fact, they’re the biggest group of ’em in the nation. Sure, they’re devotees of the borrowers’ economy—eagerly sharing bikes, music, rides, vacation places, you name it—but like most generations before them, they’re hungry for home ownership. Buyers under 36 now make up the biggest chunk of Americans signing on the line that is dotted: 34% of all home buyers, according to the National Association of Realtors®. And they make up 64% of first-time home buyers (even though they only account for 13% of the population).

So if millennials are checking out your hometown, you’d best pay attention.

“There are some very specific things you see millennials looking for in a community right now,” says Jason Dorsey, chief strategy officer for the Center for Generational Kinetics, a marketing firm in Austin, TX. On the list of must-haves: supershort commutes, and amenities like parks, cultural centers, and restaurants. And yeah, maybe even some really fun stuff to do on a Thursday night. That’s because many of these 25- to 34-year-olds are delaying marriage and even a serious career, and want to enjoy the single life, he says.

As Dorsey points out, they also face an UberXL load of unique financial challenges: “College debt, thinner credit history, less savings—and all at a time when home prices have gone up. For many millennials, it’s much harder to buy houses.” On their path to ownership, they’re very much on the prowl for a bargain.

So what are the places that pique millennials’ interest? The realtor.com economic data team analyzed the 60 largest U.S. cities and how much millennials were checking out listings in those areas, compared with the national average, from August 2016 to February 2017.

Ready? Let’s take a closer look at these millennial magnets.

1. Salt Lake City, UT

Median home price: $360,000

Percentage of income needed to buy a home*: 30%

Unemployment rate: 2.9%

Salt Lake City

AndreyKrav/iStock

Salt Lake City has a lot more going for it than Mormons, the first KFC franchise (1952), and a big, briny body of water (the Great Salt Lake). There’s also a burgeoning tech scene that lures young people to companies like Adobe and Electronic Arts. In fact, the city has come to be known as “Silicon Slopes,” with homes at one-third of Silicon Valley prices and plenty of sweet skiing and boarding a short ride away.

Even those outside the tech biz have a good chance of snagging a nice gig—Salt Lake has the lowest unemployment rate of all the markets on our list, at 2.9%, well below the national unemployment rate of 4.7%.

And if your dream job hasn’t yet kicked in, there are plenty of cheap, fun things to do.

“This is an extremely livable, affordable city, especially for those that are just starting out,” says Brook Bernier, a Realtor with Equity Real Estate.

Adventure awaits in SLC’s many bike lanes and mountain bike trails. There’s even a Bike Prom (a costumed bike rally party) and Tour de Brewtah, which combines two of the (clichéd, but true) great loves of millennials: bikes and micro-brewed beers. The weekly farmers market even offers valet bike parking.

Millennial lure:  SLC may be known as a conservative place, but it was named the “Gayest City in the USA” in 2012 by the LGBT magazine the Advocate. It was ranked eighth last year.

2. Miami, FL

Median home price: $370,000

Percentage of income needed to buy a home: 49%

Unemployment rate: 5.1%

It’s not just sun birds or aging boomers who flock to Florida in droves, fleeing cold weather. So do millennials! The sunshine is nice, but young folk are attracted to a hopping scene with relatively affordable homes and decent job opportunities. Many find employment in tourism, international trading, and construction—the entire region is enjoying a building boom.

It’s not all work and no play, though. While the South Beach is known for its club scene, events like Calle Ocho Festival, Carnaval Miami, and Art Basel Miami  turn the entire city into a party. In addition to numerous art galleries and music venues, the Adrienne Arsht Center was opened in 2006 as the country’s second-largest performing arts center (after NYC’s Metropolitan Opera House).

Up-and-coming neighborhoods like Little Haiti and North Miami are getting fresh interest from young buyers, says Realtor Giovanna Calimano, of Yes Real Estate.

“A lot of these areas are developing little by little,” she says. “They’re hot because the houses there right now aren’t overpriced. People can live there while the communities are still developing and improving.”

Millennial lure: Beach culture—fun, sexy, and cheap (or, actually, free). What’s not to love?

3. Orlando, FL

Median home price: $279,000

Percentage of income needed to buy a home: 34%

Unemployment rate: 4.4%

Bike to Work Day in Orlando

CindyMurray/iStock

There’s much more to Orlando than theme parks, oversized mice, and sleepy time-shares overlooking golf courses. In fact, this fast-growing metro is getting a lot of serious attention from young people.

“You’ve got the best of both worlds,” says Realtor Lorisa Motko of Charles Rutenberg Realty. “You’ve got the beaches 45 minutes in any direction, and you have plenty of entertainment and nightlife for millennials.”

New mixed-use developments designed to appeal to both city-loving millennials and baby boomers (hey, what happened to Gen Xers, anyway?), many of which are pedestrian- and bicycle-friendly. Thornton Park, just east of downtown, has also become popular among younger homeowners seeking a unique historic neighborhood with cobbled streets and lined with bungalows.

The Orlando metro area leads Florida in job creation, and added 54,600 jobs in January, according to the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity.

Millennial lure:  Orlando was the birthplace of the megastar boy bands, ‘NSync and the Backstreet Boys, which dominated the airwaves back in the ’90s. And, in case you hadn’t heard, the ’90s are cool again … with millennials. Go figure.

4. Seattle, WA

Median home price: $455,000

Percentage of income needed to buy a home: 36%

Unemployment rate: 4.2%

Seattle checks off quite a few items on the millennial home buyer’s list: well-paid jobs (at Amazon, Microsoft, and Costco) quality coffeehouses around almost every corner, more than 50 bike trails, and some of the country’s best tree-lined streets.

It’s also a welcoming place for nonconforming young people. The city had one of the nation’s biggest turnouts for the Women’s March on Jan. 21, hometown titan Starbucks announced a plan to hire refugees, and it’s the first major U.S. metro to approve a $15 minimum wage.

“Seattle is hip, it’s current, it’s progressive,” says Chris Bajuk, a broker at HomeSmart. “We’re at the leading edge of social and technology trends.”

Millennial lure:  The upscale marijuana shop Vela (it’s legal here!), with gleaming counters and an on-site processing lab, was labeled “the Louis Vuitton of weed stores” by none other than Snoop Dogg.

5. Houston, TX

Median home price: $310,000

Percentage of income needed to buy a home: 36%

Unemployment rate: 5.4%

Houston, TX

CrackerClips/iStock

Good news for broke millennials: A paycheck in Houston stretches further than in other metros. Houston has the second-highest pay on our list, at $62,300, after adjusting for the cost of living, trailing only San Jose, according to Forbes. Plus, Texas is one of the only seven states with no income tax.

Granted, you may well find yourself fighting through Houston traffic, but several master-planned communities in the suburbs mix residential homes with businesses, so you may not even need to head downtown.

“Restaurants, bars, shops—it almost feels like an urban setting. It’s a very neat trend that’s going to take off,” says Cheri Fama, president of John Daugherty Realtors.

Millennial lure:  One of Houston’s more eccentric tourist attractions is the Beer Can House—the odd brainchild of retired upholsterer John Milkovisch, who covered his home with more than 50,000 flattened cans, bottles, and caps.

6. Los Angeles, CA

Median home price: $672,000

Percentage of income needed to buy a home: 64%

Unemployment rate: 4.7%

Los Angeles rooftop

Superb Images/Getty Images

Los Angeles is still “La La Land” for young people dreaming of a Hollywood career, waiting for that life-changing phone call while writing in a café, waiting tables, or driving for Lyft.

“Yes, a lot of people who want to break into the business still come here,” says Gwen Lane, a 33-year-old millennial who runs the blog The LA Girl. “For creatives, it’s such a good place to be.”

But a more recent arrival, the tech industry, is also making itself known—especially the stretch of ocean-adjacent Westside known as “Silicon Beach.” Here you’ll find the parent company of Snapchat; virtual reality hardware/software producer Oculus; and a major outpost of Google.

And despite a median home price of $672,000, there are still pockets of L.A. that are affordable. Northeast neighborhoods like Highland Park and Atwater Village, once dismissed as the boonies, are now among the trendiest choices for laying down roots. Downtown L.A. is vibrant again, and the newly expanded metro system offers options for getting around without a car. For even lower price tags, South Los Angeles is worth considering—the area is going through major changes, with new outdoor plazas, a farmers market, public gardens, and more than 1,000 apartments and condos.

Millennial lure: The Whiskey a Go Go, once the hometown club of the Doors, is still one of the country’s best joints to see up-and-coming bands.

7. Buffalo, NY

Median home price: $158,000

Percentage of income needed to buy a home: 23%

Unemployment rate: 5.6%

Buffalo’s inexpensive housing—the median home price is only $158,000—is particularly attractive to young people carrying mounds of college debt. Jobs are flowing in, too. Elon Musk’s SolarCity factory alone, a solar energy equipment supplier, promises 3,000 jobs.

“It’s a city where young people can make their presence felt, whereas in large cities like New York, it’s hard to make an impact,” says E. Frits Abell, chief operating officer of Green Machines, an eco-friendly machine manufacturer in Buffalo.

“Buffalo has a very conducive environment for entrepreneurs … people are also involved in charities, spend time fixing neighbors’ homes, or volunteer with refugee communities to make a positive social impact here.”

Among cities of similar size, Buffalo has a remarkable selection of cultural attractions. And after extensive renovation over the last decade or so, Buffalo has turned its waterfront into a recreation zone for skating and curling.

Millennial lure:  Buffalo’s Turkey Trot is the oldest annual public footrace in the nation. The 8K run was first held all the way back in 1896.

8. Albany, NY

Median home price: $250,000

Percentage of income needed to buy a home: 27%

Unemployment rate: 4.5%

New York State Museum in Albany, NY

DebraMillet/iStock

Albany, one of America’s first cities, is embracing a shining new future. Faded industrial districts in North Albany have become thriving enclaves, with colorful street life. The historic downtown of the state capital has witnessed a resurgence, with enough bars, hotels, and restaurants to justify a hipster’s guide to downtown.

“Albany is kicking it with the micro-brewery and cider business,” says Bill Pettit, a landscape painter who has lived in Albany since 1988. Pettit works with local art galleries and aspiring young artists for 1st Friday, a monthly event disseminating arts and culture throughout the city.

Albany has six colleges, including the State University of New York at Albany. Until recently, graduates vamoosed for better jobs, but now that the city has rebranded itself as a budding tech hub, many choose to stay. Companies like IBM and GlobalFoundries have set up research centers here, and the city is expected to fill 1,180 new software jobs by 2020, according to the New York Department of Labor.

Millennial lure:  There’s a surprisingly vibrant local indie band scene here. Really.

9. San Francisco, CA

Median home price: $849,000

Percentage of income needed to buy a home: 56%

Unemployment rate: 3.7%

The old adage goes, “San Francisco is a place where young people come to retire.” It’s less true today, given that the cost of living is freakishly high—median rent for a one-bedroom is $3,270, and the median price of a home is $849,000. Now the city is filling up with ambitious young tech folks who aren’t retiring anytime soon.

The young vibe is found in hoodies, ping-pong tables, and beer-stocked fridges in the offices of Airbnb, Pinterest, and lesser-known startups. It’s also present at company IPO parties or 20-something meetups in warehouse-turned-event spaces like the Folsom Street Foundry.

The whole city is basically a giant adult playground. Visit the Academy of Sciences with a drink in your hand during NightLife Thursdays, lie in Dolores Park on a sunny summer day and consider buying a marijuana-laced lollipop, or join a citywide scavenger hunt with your friends.

“It’s the best city ever for young designers,” says Lisa Zhang, 26, who studies interactive design at Academy of Art University. “I see inspiration everywhere, on streets, at bus stations. … I can’t imagine myself living anywhere else.”

Millennial lure: Everything.

10. San Jose, CA

Median home price: $950,000

Percentage of income needed to buy a home: 53%

Unemployment rate: 3.7%

Yes, housing prices in Silicon Valley are insane. With a median price of $950,000, a down payment in the San Jose metro market could buy you an entire house in much of the United States.

Perhaps the generous paychecks of Valley tech companies provide some justification. Year after year, ambitious young engineers come to work for companies like Apple, Cisco, and Netflix, and..

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[stormdoors78476]

Millennial Magnets: The Top 10 Cities Where Young People Want to Be

Orlando, FL (lightkey/iStock)

What do millennials want, anyway? Marketing execs all over the country have been tripping over themselves for years to find the answer. After all, as America’s largest and youngest adult generation, millennials have an insane amount of collective purchasing power, the power to move markets according to their whims—and the ability to do so for decades to come.

As a group, they’re also somewhat elusive. Are they aimless or driven? Apathetic or activist? IPhone or Android? Taco Bell or Chipotle?

Well, here’s something we do know: In ever-increasing numbers, they’re home buyers. In fact, they’re the biggest group of ’em in the nation. Sure, they’re devotees of the borrowers’ economy—eagerly sharing bikes, music, rides, vacation places, you name it—but like most generations before them, they’re hungry for home ownership. Buyers under 36 now make up the biggest chunk of Americans signing on the line that is dotted: 34% of all home buyers, according to the National Association of Realtors®. And they make up 64% of first-time home buyers (even though they only account for 13% of the population).

So if millennials are checking out your hometown, you’d best pay attention.

“There are some very specific things you see millennials looking for in a community right now,” says Jason Dorsey, chief strategy officer for the Center for Generational Kinetics, a marketing firm in Austin, TX. On the list of must-haves: supershort commutes, and amenities like parks, cultural centers, and restaurants. And yeah, maybe even some really fun stuff to do on a Thursday night. That’s because many of these 25- to 34-year-olds are delaying marriage and even a serious career, and want to enjoy the single life, he says.

As Dorsey points out, they also face an UberXL load of unique financial challenges: “College debt, thinner credit history, less savings—and all at a time when home prices have gone up. For many millennials, it’s much harder to buy houses.” On their path to ownership, they’re very much on the prowl for a bargain.

So what are the places that pique millennials’ interest? The realtor.com economic data team analyzed the 60 largest U.S. cities and how much millennials were checking out listings in those areas, compared with the national average, from August 2016 to February 2017.

Ready? Let’s take a closer look at these millennial magnets.

1. Salt Lake City, UT

Median home price: $360,000

Percentage of income needed to buy a home*: 30%

Unemployment rate: 2.9%

Salt Lake City

AndreyKrav/iStock

Salt Lake City has a lot more going for it than Mormons, the first KFC franchise (1952), and a big, briny body of water (the Great Salt Lake). There’s also a burgeoning tech scene that lures young people to companies like Adobe and Electronic Arts. In fact, the city has come to be known as “Silicon Slopes,” with homes at one-third of Silicon Valley prices and plenty of sweet skiing and boarding a short ride away.

Even those outside the tech biz have a good chance of snagging a nice gig—Salt Lake has the lowest unemployment rate of all the markets on our list, at 2.9%, well below the national unemployment rate of 4.7%.

And if your dream job hasn’t yet kicked in, there are plenty of cheap, fun things to do.

“This is an extremely livable, affordable city, especially for those that are just starting out,” says Brook Bernier, a Realtor with Equity Real Estate.

Adventure awaits in SLC’s many bike lanes and mountain bike trails. There’s even a Bike Prom (a costumed bike rally party) and Tour de Brewtah, which combines two of the (clichéd, but true) great loves of millennials: bikes and micro-brewed beers. The weekly farmers market even offers valet bike parking.

Millennial lure:  SLC may be known as a conservative place, but it was named the “Gayest City in the USA” in 2012 by the LGBT magazine the Advocate. It was ranked eighth last year.

2. Miami, FL

Median home price: $370,000

Percentage of income needed to buy a home: 49%

Unemployment rate: 5.1%

It’s not just sun birds or aging boomers who flock to Florida in droves, fleeing cold weather. So do millennials! The sunshine is nice, but young folk are attracted to a hopping scene with relatively affordable homes and decent job opportunities. Many find employment in tourism, international trading, and construction—the entire region is enjoying a building boom.

It’s not all work and no play, though. While the South Beach is known for its club scene, events like Calle Ocho Festival, Carnaval Miami, and Art Basel Miami  turn the entire city into a party. In addition to numerous art galleries and music venues, the Adrienne Arsht Center was opened in 2006 as the country’s second-largest performing arts center (after NYC’s Metropolitan Opera House).

Up-and-coming neighborhoods like Little Haiti and North Miami are getting fresh interest from young buyers, says Realtor Giovanna Calimano, of Yes Real Estate.

“A lot of these areas are developing little by little,” she says. “They’re hot because the houses there right now aren’t overpriced. People can live there while the communities are still developing and improving.”

Millennial lure: Beach culture—fun, sexy, and cheap (or, actually, free). What’s not to love?

3. Orlando, FL

Median home price: $279,000

Percentage of income needed to buy a home: 34%

Unemployment rate: 4.4%

Bike to Work Day in Orlando

CindyMurray/iStock

There’s much more to Orlando than theme parks, oversized mice, and sleepy time-shares overlooking golf courses. In fact, this fast-growing metro is getting a lot of serious attention from young people.

“You’ve got the best of both worlds,” says Realtor Lorisa Motko of Charles Rutenberg Realty. “You’ve got the beaches 45 minutes in any direction, and you have plenty of entertainment and nightlife for millennials.”

New mixed-use developments designed to appeal to both city-loving millennials and baby boomers (hey, what happened to Gen Xers, anyway?), many of which are pedestrian- and bicycle-friendly. Thornton Park, just east of downtown, has also become popular among younger homeowners seeking a unique historic neighborhood with cobbled streets and lined with bungalows.

The Orlando metro area leads Florida in job creation, and added 54,600 jobs in January, according to the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity.

Millennial lure:  Orlando was the birthplace of the megastar boy bands, ‘NSync and the Backstreet Boys, which dominated the airwaves back in the ’90s. And, in case you hadn’t heard, the ’90s are cool again … with millennials. Go figure.

4. Seattle, WA

Median home price: $455,000

Percentage of income needed to buy a home: 36%

Unemployment rate: 4.2%

Seattle checks off quite a few items on the millennial home buyer’s list: well-paid jobs (at Amazon, Microsoft, and Costco) quality coffeehouses around almost every corner, more than 50 bike trails, and some of the country’s best tree-lined streets.

It’s also a welcoming place for nonconforming young people. The city had one of the nation’s biggest turnouts for the Women’s March on Jan. 21, hometown titan Starbucks announced a plan to hire refugees, and it’s the first major U.S. metro to approve a $15 minimum wage.

“Seattle is hip, it’s current, it’s progressive,” says Chris Bajuk, a broker at HomeSmart. “We’re at the leading edge of social and technology trends.”

Millennial lure:  The upscale marijuana shop Vela (it’s legal here!), with gleaming counters and an on-site processing lab, was labeled “the Louis Vuitton of weed stores” by none other than Snoop Dogg.

5. Houston, TX

Median home price: $310,000

Percentage of income needed to buy a home: 36%

Unemployment rate: 5.4%

Houston, TX

CrackerClips/iStock

Good news for broke millennials: A paycheck in Houston stretches further than in other metros. Houston has the second-highest pay on our list, at $62,300, after adjusting for the cost of living, trailing only San Jose, according to Forbes. Plus, Texas is one of the only seven states with no income tax.

Granted, you may well find yourself fighting through Houston traffic, but several master-planned communities in the suburbs mix residential homes with businesses, so you may not even need to head downtown.

“Restaurants, bars, shops—it almost feels like an urban setting. It’s a very neat trend that’s going to take off,” says Cheri Fama, president of John Daugherty Realtors.

Millennial lure:  One of Houston’s more eccentric tourist attractions is the Beer Can House—the odd brainchild of retired upholsterer John Milkovisch, who covered his home with more than 50,000 flattened cans, bottles, and caps.

6. Los Angeles, CA

Median home price: $672,000

Percentage of income needed to buy a home: 64%

Unemployment rate: 4.7%

Los Angeles rooftop

Superb Images/Getty Images

Los Angeles is still “La La Land” for young people dreaming of a Hollywood career, waiting for that life-changing phone call while writing in a café, waiting tables, or driving for Lyft.

“Yes, a lot of people who want to break into the business still come here,” says Gwen Lane, a 33-year-old millennial who runs the blog The LA Girl. “For creatives, it’s such a good place to be.”

But a more recent arrival, the tech industry, is also making itself known—especially the stretch of ocean-adjacent Westside known as “Silicon Beach.” Here you’ll find the parent company of Snapchat; virtual reality hardware/software producer Oculus; and a major outpost of Google.

And despite a median home price of $672,000, there are still pockets of L.A. that are affordable. Northeast neighborhoods like Highland Park and Atwater Village, once dismissed as the boonies, are now among the trendiest choices for laying down roots. Downtown L.A. is vibrant again, and the newly expanded metro system offers options for getting around without a car. For even lower price tags, South Los Angeles is worth considering—the area is going through major changes, with new outdoor plazas, a farmers market, public gardens, and more than 1,000 apartments and condos.

Millennial lure: The Whiskey a Go Go, once the hometown club of the Doors, is still one of the country’s best joints to see up-and-coming bands.

7. Buffalo, NY

Median home price: $158,000

Percentage of income needed to buy a home: 23%

Unemployment rate: 5.6%

Buffalo’s inexpensive housing—the median home price is only $158,000—is particularly attractive to young people carrying mounds of college debt. Jobs are flowing in, too. Elon Musk’s SolarCity factory alone, a solar energy equipment supplier, promises 3,000 jobs.

“It’s a city where young people can make their presence felt, whereas in large cities like New York, it’s hard to make an impact,” says E. Frits Abell, chief operating officer of Green Machines, an eco-friendly machine manufacturer in Buffalo.

“Buffalo has a very conducive environment for entrepreneurs … people are also involved in charities, spend time fixing neighbors’ homes, or volunteer with refugee communities to make a positive social impact here.”

Among cities of similar size, Buffalo has a remarkable selection of cultural attractions. And after extensive renovation over the last decade or so, Buffalo has turned its waterfront into a recreation zone for skating and curling.

Millennial lure:  Buffalo’s Turkey Trot is the oldest annual public footrace in the nation. The 8K run was first held all the way back in 1896.

8. Albany, NY

Median home price: $250,000

Percentage of income needed to buy a home: 27%

Unemployment rate: 4.5%

New York State Museum in Albany, NY

DebraMillet/iStock

Albany, one of America’s first cities, is embracing a shining new future. Faded industrial districts in North Albany have become thriving enclaves, with colorful street life. The historic downtown of the state capital has witnessed a resurgence, with enough bars, hotels, and restaurants to justify a hipster’s guide to downtown.

“Albany is kicking it with the micro-brewery and cider business,” says Bill Pettit, a landscape painter who has lived in Albany since 1988. Pettit works with local art galleries and aspiring young artists for 1st Friday, a monthly event disseminating arts and culture throughout the city.

Albany has six colleges, including the State University of New York at Albany. Until recently, graduates vamoosed for better jobs, but now that the city has rebranded itself as a budding tech hub, many choose to stay. Companies like IBM and GlobalFoundries have set up research centers here, and the city is expected to fill 1,180 new software jobs by 2020, according to the New York Department of Labor.

Millennial lure:  There’s a surprisingly vibrant local indie band scene here. Really.

9. San Francisco, CA

Median home price: $849,000

Percentage of income needed to buy a home: 56%

Unemployment rate: 3.7%

The old adage goes, “San Francisco is a place where young people come to retire.” It’s less true today, given that the cost of living is freakishly high—median rent for a one-bedroom is $3,270, and the median price of a home is $849,000. Now the city is filling up with ambitious young tech folks who aren’t retiring anytime soon.

The young vibe is found in hoodies, ping-pong tables, and beer-stocked fridges in the offices of Airbnb, Pinterest, and lesser-known startups. It’s also present at company IPO parties or 20-something meetups in warehouse-turned-event spaces like the Folsom Street Foundry.

The whole city is basically a giant adult playground. Visit the Academy of Sciences with a drink in your hand during NightLife Thursdays, lie in Dolores Park on a sunny summer day and consider buying a marijuana-laced lollipop, or join a citywide scavenger hunt with your friends.

“It’s the best city ever for young designers,” says Lisa Zhang, 26, who studies interactive design at Academy of Art University. “I see inspiration everywhere, on streets, at bus stations. … I can’t imagine myself living anywhere else.”

Millennial lure: Everything.

10. San Jose, CA

Median home price: $950,000

Percentage of income needed to buy a home: 53%

Unemployment rate: 3.7%

Yes, housing prices in Silicon Valley are insane. With a median price of $950,000, a down payment in the San Jose metro market could buy you an entire house in much of the United States.

Perhaps the generous paychecks of Valley tech companies provide some justification. Year after year, ambitious young engineers come to work for companies like Apple, Cisco, and Netflix, and..

from DIYS http://ift.tt/2n9ilLy