#mauna loa observatory

[rjzimmerman]

Hawaii’s Mauna Loa Observatory just captured ominous signals about the planet’s health. (Washington Post)

Hawaii’s Mauna Loa Observatory just captured an ominous sign about the pace of global warming.

Atmospheric levels of planet-warming carbon dioxide aren’t just on their way to yet another record high this year — they’re rising faster than ever, according to the latest in a 66-year-long series of observations.

Carbon dioxide levels were 4.7 parts per million higher in March than they were a year earlier, the largest annual leap ever measured at the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration laboratory atop a volcano on Hawaii’s Big Island. And from January through April, CO2 concentrations increased faster than they have in the first four months of any other year. Data from Mauna Loa is used to create the Keeling Curve, a chart that daily plots global atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, tracked by Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California at San Diego.

For decades, CO2 concentrations at Mauna Loa in the month of May have broken previous records. But the recent acceleration in atmospheric CO2, surpassing a record-setting increase observed in 2016, is perhaps a more ominous signal of failing efforts to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions and the damage they cause to Earth’s climate.

“Not only is CO2 still rising in the atmosphere — it’s increasing faster and faster,” said Arlyn Andrews, a climate scientist at NOAA’s Global Monitoring Laboratory in Boulder, Colo.

A historically strong El Niño climate pattern that developed last year is a big reason for the spike. But the weather pattern only punctuated an existing trend in which global carbon emissions are rising even as U.S. emissions have declined and the growth in global emissions has slowed.

Each annual maximum has raised new alarm about the curve’s unceasing upward trend — nearing 427 parts per million in the most recent readings, which is more than 50 percent above preindustrial levels and the highest in at least 4.3 million years, according to NOAA. Atmospheric CO2 levels first surpassed 400 parts per million in 2014. Scientists said in 2016 that levels were unlikely to drop below that threshold again during the lifetime of even the youngest generations.

Since that year, carbon dioxide emissions tied to fossil fuel consumption have increased 5 percent globally, according to Scripps.

[industrybuzz]

Mauna Loa Erupts For the First Time In Decades

The world's largest active volcano is erupting.

Mauna Loa erupts, after several years of warning activity, and sends lava rolling slowly down its slope. Despite being known as the world’s largest active volcano, Mauna Loa, the central peak of Hawaii’s Big Island is currently erupting for the first time in nearly 40 years. Late Sunday night, three fissures opened on the northeast flank of the volcano, spitting lava fountains almost 140 feet…

[meteorologistaustenlonek]

"Carbon dioxide levels measured at NOAA’s Mauna Loa Atmospheric Baseline Observatory peaked at 424* parts per million in May, continuing a steady climb further into territory not seen for millions of years"

[sepdet]

[Nov 28, 2022] With that mixture of OH SHIT and OH WOW that one so often feels about mother nature at her most powerful, I see that Mauna Loa, the largest volcano on Earth, has started erupting.

Screengrab from summit webcam just now, dawn in Hawai‘i:

(Not sure how wide this field of view is, but Mauna Loa is unimaginably vast, about 75 miles /120 km across and much taller than Everest if you remove the Pacific Ocean.)

Thermal cam from last night showing the lava pouring across the summit caldera floor:

Latest update from Hawaii Volcano Observatory says lava hasn't yet left summit caldera. Let's hope it doesn't. Hawaiians know better than I which emergency services to listen to for updates. Praying for y'all that Pele puts on a show without choosing to come makai.

See HVO's Mauna Loa Updates for latest observations as well as emergency maps, information, FAQs, links, and more.

[livingforstars]

Hawai`i - December 16th, 1995.

"Aloha! With the graceful arc of the Earth's limb in the background, the entire Hawaiian Island archipelago is visible in this stunning photo taken by the astronauts onboard the shuttle Discovery in October of 1988. Along with popular beaches and tropical resorts, these volcanic islands offer extreme elevations with dark, dry, cloudless skies. Consequently, they have also become popular sites for sophisticated ground based telescopes. The peak of Mauna Kea, on the Big Island (upper left), boasts an impressive array of astronomical instruments including the Keck Telescope, the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope, the NASA IRTF, the JCMT and UKIRT, and the Gemini Telescope Project. The dormant volcanic cone of Haleakala on Maui (just below the Big Island) is home to the Air Force Maui Optical Station and the Mees Solar Observatory. Mahalo nui loa!"

[beardedmrbean]

A magnitude 4.7 earthquake struck the Big Island of Hawaii on Thursday as officials tracked two rapidly developing storms in the Pacific.

The temblor was reported nine miles south of Fern Forest, a community of about 1,100 people on the southern end of the Big Island of Hawaii, at 12:52 a.m. local time, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

The Hawaiian Volcano Observatory said more than 300 people reported feeling the earthquake all across the Big Island in the first hour and several reports were received from nearby islands. There were no immediate reports of significant damage and the earthquake did not raise the threat of tsunamis, according to the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center.

Additionally, the earthquake did not have any apparent impact on either Mauna Loa or Kilauea volcanoes, the U.S. Geological Survey said. In recent days, the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory has issued warnings about increased activity at Kilauea volcano. The volcano's last eruption occurred on July 3 and lasted a few days.

The seismic activity comes as officials watch a developing storm system and a Category 3 hurricane in the Pacific, both of which are heading in Hawaii's direction.

About 1,000 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, a system of thunderstorms has merged and begun organizing, according to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. Forecasters say the system, which is forecast to develop over the coming days, will pass near the islands of Hawaii late this weekend or early next week.

"Interests in Hawaii should closely monitor this disturbance, though it remains too early to determine the exact location and magnitude of potential impacts," the Central Pacific Hurricane Center said.

About 1,000 miles to the east of the storm system is Hurricane Gilma, a powerful storm that will keep its strength at least through the end of the week as it churns through open waters.

"Should this system hold together, it would not be until around the end of the month before it would become a concern for Hawaii," said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather's hurricane expert.

[mariacallous]

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) does not mince its words when describing the disastrous effect that humans are having on the planet. “It is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean, and land,” reads its latest report.

From heat waves and wildfires to downpours and flooding, 2023 has given us a taste of the impacts we can expect over the coming decades and centuries. In short, it’s not good news. Without very significant reductions in greenhouse gases—beginning immediately—it is very likely that global surface temperatures will exceed the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold set in the 2015 Paris climate agreement.

Even if we do curtail emissions, sea levels will almost certainly continue to rise throughout this century and may continue to rise for centuries or millennia beyond that. Extreme weather events have become more frequent since 1950 and will become more frequent and more severe as global temperatures increase.

The message could not be clearer: We need to do everything we can to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions right now. Unless we take major action to stop emissions, we’re facing an Earth that is hotter, plagued by more extreme weather, and less hospitable than the already-warmed planet we have today. Here’s everything you need to know about where we are with the climate crisis.

1. There’s more carbon dioxide in our atmosphere than at any time in human history

The Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii has been tracking Earth’s atmospheric concentration of CO2 since the late 1950s. In 2022, the global average concentration it recorded was 417.06 parts per million (ppm). Preindustrial levels were 278 ppm, which means that humans are halfway to doubling the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere compared to the period between 1750 and 1800.

CO2 concentrations fluctuate with the seasons, while the speed at which they increase yearly is affected by human behavior. For example, the rising concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere slowed during the early stages of the pandemic when emissions fell, but then rose steeply in 2021 as the world reopened. The annual rise in emissions and atmospheric concentration of CO2 has since slowed down again. The global average CO2 concentration for 2023 is predicted to be 419.2 ppm. The last time Earth’s atmosphere contained this much CO2 was more than 3 million years ago, when sea levels were several meters higher and trees grew at the south pole.

2. We’re accelerating down the path to exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming

In 2015, the nations behind the Paris Agreement set an ambitious target for keeping global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius. The latest IPCC report spells out just how difficult it will be for the world to stay under that limit unless we drastically slash emissions now. The report models five different future emission scenarios—from very high emissions to very low emissions—and in each scenario global surfaces are expected to hit at least 1.5 degrees.

Of the emissions scenarios modeled, only the very low emission scenario estimates that the world would see less than 1.5 degrees of warming by the end of the 21st century. In that scenario, temperatures are likely to overshoot 1.5 degrees of warming between 2041 and 2060 before returning back down to 1.4 degrees of warming by the end of the century. This scenario would require the world to dramatically reduce its emissions with almost immediate effect.

But the point at which the world first steps over the 1.5 degree threshold could be much sooner. According to the World Meteorological Association, there’s a 66 percent chance that the annual average temperature will overshoot 1.5 degrees of warming for at least one year between 2023 and 2027. Indeed, the 1.5 degree limit has already been breached for shorter periods of weeks and months—in 2015, 2016, 2020, and 2023. July 2023 was the hottest month ever recorded, with temperatures breaking records on four consecutive days.

Based on current emissions and policies, the world is likely to experience 2.7 degrees Celsius of warming by 2100.

3. Our remaining carbon budget is tiny

At its core, climate change is really simple to grasp. The more carbon dioxide—and other warming gases—that we put into the atmosphere, the higher global temperatures will rise. Between 1850 and 2021, humans released around 2,500 gigatonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere (1 gigatonne equals 1 billion metric tons). So far, these emissions have led to 1.1 degrees Celsius of warming when compared to preindustrial levels.

To have a 50-50 chance of staying under 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming, we can release only 250 extra gigatonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere—and that includes emissions from the beginning of 2023. To put that in perspective, in 2022 we emitted 36.8 gigatonnes of CO2, and global annual emissions are still yet to peak. In other words, we’ve blown our 1.5 degree budget—it’s just a matter of when, not if, we pass the threshold.

By the same logic, other temperature thresholds have budgets, too. To have a 50-50 chance of keeping temperatures below 2 degrees Celsius of warming, we must emit fewer than 1,350 gigatonnes of CO2 from 2020 onwards. As of mid-2023, roughly only 1,000 gigatonnes of that budget remains.

4. Extreme heat events have become more frequent and severe

You only need to think of recent devastating wildfires in Canada and Hawaii, the scorching temperatures in the southwestern United States, or the evacuation of tourists from Greece to see that climate change is leading to more frequent and more severe hot weather events.

The kind of extreme heat event that had a likelihood of happening once every 10 years between 1850 and 1900 is now likely to occur 2.8 times every 10 years. In a world that hits 1.5 degrees of warming, such events are likely to occur 4.1 times every 10 years. The same is true of once-in-every-50-years events. They’re now likely to occur 4.8 times in 50 years, and in a world that exceeds 1.5 degrees of warming, 8.6 times every 50 years.

Heavy rain is also more common because of climate change. The kind of heavy one-day rain that 150 years ago would have only happened once every 10 years is now happening 1.3 times every 10 years. In a world warmed by 1.5 degrees Celsius, that will go up to 1.5 times. And as frequency increases, so does severity—we can expect these extreme weather events to be hotter and wetter than those that went before them.

5. Humans have already caused 1.1 degrees Celsius of warming

The latest IPCC report estimates that global surface temperatures are now 1.1 degrees Celsius warmer than they were between 1850 and 1900. Global surface temperatures have risen faster since 1970 than in any 50-year period over the past 2,000 years, and this has been particularly pronounced in recent years.

From 2023 to 2027, the annual average temperature is predicted to range between 1.1 and 1.8 degrees Celsius higher than the 1850–1900 average. There is a 98 percent estimated likelihood that one of the years in this period will surpass 2016 as the hottest year on record.

Global weather systems will be a factor in this. 2023 saw the beginning of an El Niño period, when sea temperatures get warmer in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean with the effect of raising temperatures worldwide and increasing the risk of extreme weather. But just in case there was any doubt, the IPCC’s latest report makes it clear that the principal drivers of rising global temperatures are human-released greenhouse gases.

6. Two-thirds of extreme weather events in the past 20 years were influenced by humans

The number of floods and instances of heavy rain have quadrupled since 1980 and doubled since 2004. Extreme temperatures, droughts, and wildfires have also more than doubled in the past 40 years. While no extreme weather event ever comes down to a single cause, climate scientists are increasingly exploring the human fingerprints on floods, heat waves, droughts, and storms.

Carbon Brief, a UK-based website covering climate science, has gathered data from 400 studies on “extreme event attribution” and has found that 71 percent of all extreme weather events studied in the past 20 years were made more likely or more severe by human-caused climate change—including 93 percent of extreme heat events.

7. Sea levels are rising faster today than ever before

Melting ice sheets and glaciers and warming oceans lead to higher sea levels. Since 1900, sea levels have risen faster than in any preceding century in at least the past 3,000 years, and this is set to continue for a very long time.

The process is also speeding up. Over the past 140 years, sea levels have risen worldwide by 21 to 24 centimeters. But roughly 10 centimeters of that rise has taken place since 1992.

Because oceans take a long time to warm, a lot of sea level rise is already baked in. If warming is limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius, then the global mean sea level will rise between 2 and 3 meters over the next 2,000 years. If warming is limited to 2 degrees Celsius, global mean sea level will rise to between 2 and 6 meters above current levels.

8. Arctic sea ice is rapidly diminishing

Temperatures in the Arctic are rising faster than almost anywhere else on the planet. Between 2011 and 2020, annual Arctic sea ice reached its lowest level since at least 1850, and late summer Arctic sea ice was smaller than at any time in at least the past 1,000 years. As of 2022, Arctic sea ice cover is decreasing at a rate of 12.6 percent per decade, compared to its average extent during the period from 1981 to 2010.

Under all the future emissions scenarios in the latest IPCC report, the minimum amount of Arctic sea ice will fall below 1 million square kilometers at least once before 2050—making the area practically free of sea ice altogether.

9. The world is getting hungrier and thirstier

For the first time in decades, world hunger is increasing—and climate change is a big driver of this. Extreme weather events from droughts to heat waves affect crop yields and their nutritional value, and some crops will become unviable in certain areas. Under heat stress, animals will become less productive and more liable to pests and disease, which might become more frequent and spread.

Across Africa, where many countries struggle with food insecurity, agricultural productivity has decreased 34 percent because of climate change. By 2050, the risk of hunger and malnutrition could rise by 20 percent worldwide because of the effects of climate change.

Crops, animals, ecosystems, and humans also depend on water—and already the UN estimates that roughly half the world’s population experiences water scarcity for part of the year. Over the past 20 years, climate change has intensified this shortage by lowering the water stored on land.

Water quality is also worsened by climate change, which accelerates urban migration, making water sources more polluted. It also causes flooding, droughts, and higher water temperatures, which can increase the amounts of sediments, pathogens, and pesticides in water.

10. Average wildlife populations have dropped by 60 percent in just over 40 years

The average size of vertebrate populations (mammals, fish, birds, amphibians, and reptiles) declined by 69 percent between 1970 and 2018, according to the biennial Living Planet Report published by the Zoological Society of London and the WWF. That doesn't mean total animal populations have declined by 69 percent, however, as the report compares the relative decline of different animal populations. Imagine a population of 10 rhinos where nine of them died—a 90 percent population drop. Add that to a population of 1,000 sparrows where 100 of them died—a 10 percent decrease. The average population decrease across these two groups would be 50 percent even though the loss of individuals would be just 10.08 percent. And between 1 and 2.5 percent of animal species have already gone extinct.

Whatever way you stack the numbers, climate change is a factor. An international panel of scientists backed by the UN argues that climate change is playing an increasing role in driving species to extinction. It is thought to be the third biggest driver of biodiversity loss after changes in land and sea use and overexploitation of resources. Even under a 2 degrees Celsius warming scenario, 5 percent of animal and plant species will be at risk of extinction. Coral reefs are particularly vulnerable to extreme warming events; their cover could be reduced to just 1 percent of current levels at 2 degrees Celsius of warming.

[nwalthall]

I am struggling with a question that I am not even sure how to define. I will start with this: what does it mean take a photograph in the Anthropocene? It does not seem to bother anyone particularly, certainly does not seem to bother you guys, at least not to the extent that it keeps you from posting your work here, right? (1.3 billion photographs uploaded to Instagram per day, was the latest estimate I saw.) But if you are serious about your photography, then you have to spend some time thinking about what you are doing. What do your photographs mean, how do you read them, what are you trying to achieve by making them. (I am reminded here of Brice Marden, who recently passed away: “I paint because it’s my work. And I paint because I believe it’s the best way that I can pass my time as a human being. I paint for myself. I paint for my wife. And I paint for anybody that’s willing to look at it.”)

But for lots of reason I don’t have space to go into here, if you care about what you photograph, it’s complicated. Photographs often have physical relationships to the objects they represent, those things that cast a shadow on your sensor and are thus engraved there. They are anchored, moored to earth in ways that, paradoxically, make what they mean somewhat mutable.

Take the two photographs above. They are both sunrises at Rosedale Lake. The first one was taken on April 13th, 2013. The second was taken yesterday, August 10th, 2023.

On April 13th, 2013, the Mauna Loa Observatory measured Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere at 397.30 parts per million (ppm).

Yesterday, on August 10th, it measured it at 421.30 ppm.

About a 6% increase.

When you take a photograph, whether you mean to or not, you’re documenting what Roger Revelle described as “a large-scale geophysical experiment of a kind that could not have happened in the past nor be reproduced in the future. Within a few centuries, we are returning to the atmosphere and oceans the concentrated organic carbon stored in sedimentary rocks over hundreds of millions of years.”

He wrote that in 1957.

[merelygifted]

Mauna Loa eruption underway; eruptive fissures open on summit

After 38 years of silence, Mauna Loa is erupting.

Scientists at the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory said the eruption began at about 11:30 p.m. Sunday in Mokuaweoweo, the summit caldera of the volcano.

USGS webcams at the summit clearly showed a long fissure erupting fountains of lava which was spreading along the caldera floor.

The U.S. Geological Survey said that lava flows were initially contained in the summit area and are not threatening downslope communities. However, videos taken from the Kona side are raising some concerns.

On Twitter, the USGS said “It is looking like lava may be spilling out of the caldera. We’re trying to assess the extent. Eruptive fissures, however, remain confined to the caldera at this time.”

No evacuations have been requested as emergency managers monitor the eruption.

However, residents at risk for Mauna Loa lava flows are being told to review preparedness plans and check with Hawaii County Civil Defense for further guidance.

Scientists said winds may carry volcanic gas, and possibly fine ash and Pele’s hair downwind.

“Based on past events, the early stages of a Mauna Loa eruption can be very dynamic and the location and advance of lava flows can change rapidly,” the USGS said in a news release.

“If the eruption remains in Moku’āweoweo, lava flows will most likely be confined within the caldera walls,” the release said. “However, if the eruptive vents migrate outside its walls, lava flows may move rapidly downslope.”  ...

[cloudselkie]

Maunaloa update: Eruption has moved to fissures on the northeast slope.

From the USGS:

Volcanic Activity Summary:

The eruption of Mauna Loa has migrated from the summit to the Northeast Rift Zone where fissures are feeding several lava flows. HVO staff on an overflight at approximately 6:30 a.m. HST confirmed fissures at high elevations within Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park are feeding lava flows upslope of the Mauna Loa Weather Observatory. Lava flows are not threatening any downslope communities and all indications are that the eruption will remain in the Northeast Rift Zone. Volcanic gas and possibly fine ash and Pele's Hair may be carried downwind.

Residents at risk from Mauna Loa lava flows should review preparedness and refer to Hawai‘i County Civil Defense information for further guidance.    

Based on past events, the early stages of a Mauna Loa rift zone eruption can be very dynamic, and the location and advance of lava flows can change rapidly.    

HVO is in close consultation with emergency management partners and will monitor the volcano closely to provide further updates on activity.  

[rjzimmerman]

Extreme heat is wilting and burning forests, making it harder to curb climate change. (Washington Post)

Earth’s land lost much of their ability to absorb the carbon dioxide humans pumped into the air last year, according to a new study that is causing concern among climate scientists that a crucial damper on climate change underwent an unprecedented deterioration.

Temperatures in 2023 were so high — and the droughts and wildfires that came with them were so severe — that forests in various parts of the world wilted and burnedenough to have degraded the ability of the land to lock away carbon dioxide and act as a check on global warming, the study said.

The scientists behind the research, which focuses on 2023, caution that their findings are preliminary. But the work represents a disturbing data point — one that, if it turns into a trend, spells trouble for the planet and the people on it.

“We have to be, of course, careful because it’s just one year,” said Philippe Ciais, a scientist at France’s Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Sciences who co-authored the new research.

Earth’s continents act as what is known as a carbon sink. The carbon dioxide that humans emit through activities such as burning fossil fuels and making cement encourages the growth of plants, which in turn absorb a portion of those greenhouse gases and lock them in wood and soil. Without this help from forests, climate change would be worse than what is already occurring.

“This is a significant issue, because we are benefiting from the uptake of carbon,” said Robert Rohde, chief scientist for Berkeley Earth, who was not involved in the research. “Otherwise, carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere would rise even faster and drive up temperatures even faster.”

Ciais and his colleagues saw that the concentration of CO2 measured at an observatory on Mauna Loa in Hawaii and elsewhere spiked in 2023, even though global fossil fuel emissions increased only modestly last year in comparison. That mismatch suggests that there was an “unprecedented weakening” in the Earth’s ability to absorb carbon, the researchers wrote.

The scientists then used satellite data and models for vegetative growth to try to pinpoint where the carbon sink was weakening. The team spotted abnormal losses of carbon in the drought-stricken Amazon and Southeast Asia as well as in the boreal forests of Canada, where record-breaking wildfires burned through tens of millions of acres.

[newstfionline]

Tuesday, November 29, 2022

The Exceptionally American Problem of Rising Roadway Deaths (NYT) About a thousand people gathered on a bright morning on the National Mall the Saturday before Thanksgiving for what has become an American tradition: mourning a roadway fatality. With the Capitol in the background, the crowd had assembled to remember Sarah Debbink Langenkamp, who was biking home from her sons’ elementary school when she was crushed by a semi truck. Ms. Langenkamp was, improbably, the third foreign service officer at the State Department to die while walking or biking in the Washington area this year. The U.S. has diverged over the past decade from other comparably developed countries, where traffic fatalities have been falling. This American exception became even starker during the pandemic. In 2020, as car travel plummeted around the world, traffic fatalities broadly fell as well. But in the U.S., the opposite happened. Travel declined, and deaths still went up. Safety advocates and government officials lament that so many deaths are often tolerated in America as an unavoidable cost of mass mobility. Americans die in rising numbers even when they drive less. They die in rising numbers even as roads around the world grow safer. American foreign service officers leave war zones, only to die on roads around the nation’s capital. In 2021, nearly 43,000 people died on American roads, the government estimates. And the recent rise in fatalities has been particularly pronounced among those the government classifies as most vulnerable—cyclists, motorcyclists, pedestrians.

Hawaii’s Mauna Loa erupts, officials warn people to prepare (AP) The world’s largest active volcano was erupting Monday and wasn’t immediately threatening communities on Hawaii’s Big Island, but officials warned residents to be ready for worse. Many current residents weren’t living there when Mauna Loa last erupted 38 years ago. The U.S. Geological Survey warned the roughly 200,000 people on the Big Island that an eruption “can be very dynamic, and the location and advance of lava flows can change rapidly.” The eruption began late Sunday night following a series of fairly large earthquakes, said Ken Hon, the scientist-in-charge at the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory.

The great mismatch: Remote jobs are in demand, but positions are drying up (Washington Post) Lori Black has been firing off dozens of applications with one goal: to land a work-from-home job. But four months in, her search is starting to feel impossible. Positions are in short supply, and rejections have been plentiful. Nearly three years into a pandemic that reshaped workplace norms and put the balance of power squarely in the hands of employees, the tides are shifting again. The job market—although still hot—is slowing, and many Americans who had been working from home are being called back into the office. That has led to a tug-of-war between what employees want and what employers are willing to give them. Wage increases are plateauing, signing bonuses are cooling off, and fewer companies are allowing people to work from home than they did even a few months ago. Demand for remote jobs remains near all-time highs, even as companies roll back telework positions.

Mexico’s López Obrador leads massive pro-government march (AP) Hundreds of thousands of people marched in Mexico’s capital Sunday in a show of support for President Manuel López Obrador, who before assuming the presidency had led some of the country’s biggest protests. The “people’s march” marked four years in office for the leftist leader and was a response to a large opposition march two weeks ago to protest López Obrador’s proposal to reform the country’s electoral authority. The president himself led Sunday’s march through central Mexico City, which was accompanied by mariachi music, singing and a festive atmosphere. Many participants had been bused in from provinces across Mexico in trips organized by the ruling Morena party, unions and social groups.

Cuba’s informal market finds new space on growing internet (AP) In the Telegram group chat, the messages roll in like waves. “I need liquid ibuprofen and acetaminophen, please,” wrote one user. “It’s urgent, it’s for my 10-month-old baby.” Others offer medicine brought from outside of Cuba, adding, “Write to me in a direct message.” Emoji-speckled lists offer antibiotics, pregnancy tests, vitamins, rash creams and more. The group message, which includes 170,000 people, is just one of many that have flourished in recent years in Cuba alongside an exponential increase in internet usage on the communist-governed island. The informal sale of everything from eggs to car parts—the country’s so-called black market—is a time-honored practice in crisis-stricken Cuba, where access to the most basic items such as milk, chicken, medicine and cleaning products has always been limited. Before the internet, such exchanges took place “through your contacts, your neighbors, your local community,” said Ricardo Torres, a Cuban and economics fellow at American University in Washington. “But now, through the internet, you get to reach out to an entire province.”

Police bring down European cocaine “super cartel” (AP) Law enforcement authorities in six different countries have joined forces to take down a “super cartel” of drugs traffickers controlling about one third of the cocaine trade in Europe, the European Union crime agency said on Monday. Europol said 49 suspects have been arrested during the investigation, with the latest series of raids across Europe and the United Arab Emirates taking place between Nov. 8-19. Over 30 tons of drugs were seized during the investigations run in Spain, France, Belgium, the Netherlands and the UAE with the support of Europol. “The scale of cocaine importation into Europe under the suspects’ control and command was massive,” Europol said, adding that the suspects used encrypted communications to organize drugs shipments. More than 214 tons of cocaine were seized in the region in 2020, a 6% increase from the previous year, and experts from the European Monitoring Center for Drugs and Drug Addiction believe that amount could reach 300 tons in 2022.

Europe’s south offers a warm welcome to energy migrants (Reuters) Software developer Victor Varlamov logs in every morning to work on a sunny Spanish island off the coast of Africa after the prospect of steep heating bills and a winter made harsher by the Ukraine war drove him to leave his adoptive home in Poland. He is not alone in pursuing a warmer, cheaper way of life as tourist boards across southern Europe have seized on the cost-of-living crisis to advertise the benefits of wintering abroad to those living in more northerly countries. Varmalov, 50, together with his wife and teenage daughter, moved from Poland’s Baltic coast to Gran Canaria in Spain’s Canary Islands two months ago and plans to stay for the coming months. Before leaving Gdansk, where he has lived since 2016, Varmalov calculated he could save 250 euros ($259) on rent each month and pay 140 euros for all his utilities and internet, instead of the 200 euros he was paying for electricity alone in Poland. What he now saves, he spends on eating out, he said, and also enjoys beach walks in his lunch breaks. “The reality is better than my expectations,” he said.

As Winter Looms, Snowfall and Mud Present New Hardships for Ukraine (NYT) Increasingly frigid winter weather presented new challenges for Ukraine on Sunday as mud churned up the battlefield and snowfall made the government’s task of restoring power supplies devastated by weeks of Russian bombing all the more urgent. The state energy company urged Ukrainians to continue to use electricity sparingly to avoid overwhelming a national grid that has been weakened by repeated barrages of Russian cruise missiles and drones. Analysts say that while fighting is unlikely to stop for winter, the weather will make it harder for both armies to maintain troops in the field. In the eastern city of Bakhmut, which Russian forces have pummeled for months but failed to capture, residents have taken to cutting down trees and foliage to burn for warmth, its utilities having been destroyed by unrelenting attacks. The ground, not yet frozen, has turned to mud, sticking to uniforms and weapons and ensnaring vehicles, military and civilian alike. Analysts said that cold can affect morale, and that mud will present a particular obstacle for vehicles over the next few weeks before the ground freezes.

China’s Xi faces threat from public anger over ‘zero COVID’ (Bloomberg) The protests that erupted against China’s Covid Zero strategy represent one of the most significant challenges to Communist Party rule since the Tiananmen crisis more than 30 years ago. How Xi Jinping responds to it may end up being just as pivotal for the country’s future. From the capital Beijing to the far western outpost of Kashgar, Chinese residents frustrated by lockdowns and mass-testing campaigns have taken to the streets in recent days to urge change. In Shanghai—stricken by a grueling two-month Covid clampdown earlier this year—one crowd called for Xi to step down, defying the risk of a long prison term. Demonstrations ranged from a few people to street rallies of hundreds. Easing the outcry presents Xi with perhaps his biggest policy dilemma after a decade in power. A rapid exit from Covid Zero could fuel a surge in deaths, undercutting Xi’s efforts to cast China’s pandemic response as superior to that of the West. Cracking down on the protests, on the other hand, could build public sympathy for a cause that has already demonstrated nationwide support.

Succession Rumors in North Korea (1440) The 10-year-old daughter of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un made her second-ever public appearance over the weekend, sparking rumors over her potential future in the country’s male-dominated leadership hierarchy. Her appearance, the first of which came earlier in the month, makes her the first to be publicly confirmed as one of Kim’s children. Named Ju Ae, she is believed to be Kim’s middle child, with an older brother aged around 12 and a younger sister around 5 years old. Her abrupt debut has left international observers speculating about the status of Kim’s supposed eldest child, a boy who has never been revealed in public. Fueling further speculation, she was introduced with honorifics describing her as her father’s “most beloved” and “precious” child. The tightly scripted events come a year after Kim supposedly suffered undisclosed health problems, though those reports have been disputed.

Japan births at new low as population shrinks and ages (AP) The number of babies born in Japan this year is below last year’s record low in what the the top government spokesman described as a “critical situation.” The total of 599,636 Japanese born in January-September was 4.9% below last year’s figure, suggesting the number of births in all of 2022 might fall below last year’s record low of 811,000 babies, he said. Japan is the world’s third biggest economy but living costs are high and wage increases have been slow. The conservative government has lagged on making society more inclusive for children, women and minorities. So far, the government’s efforts to encourage people to have more babies have had limited impact despite payments of subsidies for pregnancy, childbirth and child care.

Water levels in Zimbabwe’s biggest dam too low for power (AP) Electricity shortages that have been plaguing Zimbabwe are set to worsen after an authority that manages the country’s biggest dam said water levels are now too low to continue power generation activities. The Zambezi River Authority, which runs the Kariba Dam jointly owned by Zimbabwe and neighboring Zambia, said in a letter dated Nov. 25 that water levels are at a record low and electricity generation must stop. The Kariba South Hydro Power Station provides Zimbabwe with about 70% of its electricity and has been producing significantly less than its capacity of 1,050 megawatts in recent years due to receding water levels caused by droughts. The dam “no longer has any usable water to continue undertaking power generation operations,” said the authority’s chief executive officer, Munyaradzi Munodawafa, in a letter to the Zimbabwe Power Company. The authority “is left with no choice” except to “wholly suspend” power generation activities pending a review in January when water levels are expected to have improved.

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Mauna Loa Heightened Unrest (25th October 2022)

I want to put up an update on Mauna Loa as another report from the USGS Hawaii Volcano Observatory was released today (25th October 2022).

The media has seemed run with one of these reports recently.

Mauna Loa has been on yellow for several years now. Currently the volcano has a heightened background level of earthquakes which have been ongoing at the Mokuā’weoweo caldera and below the northwest flank. These areas have been historically active so this isn’t too unusual. Below the summit itself earthquakes have increased from 10-20 to 40 to 50 per day.

Unrest began in 2014 and had a slow down in 2017 and 2018 but picked up again in 2019 and now with a larger increase. Deformation from earlier on has been because of much deeper processes and not just with the recent more shallow intrusion.

Elevated inflation on the flanks but not the summit for this update (25th October 2022), the inflation has been ongoing since mid-September.

Sulfur dioxide, hydrogen sulfide, carbon dioxide as well as fumarole temperature are currently stable at the sulfur cone and summit as well as the Southwest rift zone.

Magma is most likely being renewed into Mauna Loa’s summit magma reservoir at a depth of 3-8 kilometers which is creating this heightened level of volcanic unrest. There are no signs of an imminent eruption at this time. Although magma is most likely upwelling below the summit it does not mean if there is to be an eruption it will occur there.

Magma at shallower depths (less then 3 kilometers) is most likely what’s responsible for the current inflation below the summit during the last 2 weeks. Magma movement at a deeper depth (greater then 3 kilometers) can be detected by measuring the increase of upward movement as well as extension.

Again there is no imminent signs of an eruption, the current activity should not be viewed as certainty of an eruption from Mauna Loa either. It should also be noted that this volcano is a large shield and although has the capacity for slightly larger violent eruptions it is pretty rare.

The last eruption occurred in 1984 and created lava flows which came as close as 7.4 kilometers from Hilo, because of the slope angle lava can travel fast. If we are going with historical eruptions we should expect to see a major increase of earthquakes to around 2-3 per minute from an already elevated background level as well as seismic tremor with rapid unrest, this has been typical of Mauna Loa’s historical eruptions for the past 2 centuries.

All of this information is simplified and there are of course other things that will occur before an eruption starts, it may slightly differ from historical patterns but not by much.

Right now we cannot be sure of an eruption occurring or of how violent it will be if it does occur, just keep a watch on the Hawaii Volcano Observatory (HVO) website as everything is official coming from there, they also share live earthquake data and tilt readings for those interested.

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USGS Livestream of Mauna Loa! 😁🌋🌋🌋🌋😁

(At last! During the 2018 eruption, the USGS-funded Hawaii Volcano Observatory could only upload video clips and photos to the HVO website, plus they had multiple webcams with still photos they'd used since the early days of the web. They're supposed to use taxpayer dollars to do useful science and provide data to emergency services, so they couldn't justify wasting then-expensive bandwidth and resources for entertainment. But we wanna see!)

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Volcano: Mauna Loa (VNUM #332020)

Current Volcano Alert Level: WARNING Current Aviation Color Code: RED

Issued: Monday, November 28, 2022, 7:20 AM HST Source: Hawaiian Volcano Observatory Notice Number: 2022/H603 Location: N 19 deg 28 min W 155 deg 36 min Elevation: 13681 ft (4170 m) Area: Hawaii

Volcanic Activity Summary:

The eruption of Mauna Loa has migrated from the summit to the Northeast Rift Zone where fissures are feeding several lava flows. HVO staff on an overflight at approximately 6:30 a.m. HST confirmed fissures at high elevations within Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park are feeding lava flows upslope of the Mauna Loa Weather Observatory. Lava flows are not threatening any downslope communities and all indications are that the eruption will remain in the Northeast Rift Zone. Volcanic gas and possibly fine ash and Pele's Hair may be carried downwind.