#market value 160k

[househuntingscotland]

2 bedroom flat for sale on Greenlaw Avenue, Paisley

Asking price: £157,500

[grimrester]

i am really so sorry to continue harping on about the watcher entertainment streaming service. but this kind of stuff (internet content as a business & marketing it as such) is truly my obsession, and i think i will implode if i don't talk about some of the takes i'm seeing.

i'd like to emphasize again i don't have strong feelings about watcher either way. i like ghost files, i watch mystery files sometimes, i watched worth it back in the buzzfeed days. i don't watch any of their shows religiously.

anyway, here's the main things i keep seeing crop up and my thoughts on each:

"watcher has 25 employees they have to pay, and employing people in this economy is good, so we should be banding together to pay them."

employing people is good if you currently have the capacity to pay them. i checked watcher's linkedin page, and many of their employees were hired within the last year or two. if they hired people they cannot pay with the business model they had before, something is seriously wrong with their internal bookkeeping/decision making. it means they either didn't know they couldn't pay these people long term, or they did know and were content with risking newly hired employees' livelihoods on a huge content pivot in the next year.

of note is that none of their employees' titles have anything to do with managing the finances of the company. they are the size of a small business but have no one aside from the figureheads of the company in charge of their finances.

this is the kind of company decision making that leads to downsizing and layoffs, which can be devastating. but you know what's worse than laying off a portion of your staff? laying off everyone because your business is going under.

"not everyone can afford the subscription, but those who can should pay it to support the watcher team."

no. $6/month for a couple hours of content (depending on what shows you actively watch and the natural fluctuation of their release schedule) is a fundamentally bad value. i can pay that much for a few movies on amazon. i can pay that much for dropout, if i want to support a smaller business instead.

and to be totally frank, even if people do sign up, i don't think they'd get enough to compete with the amount they get through patreon/sponsorships. and the fact that they didn't know how many of their subscribers would realistically sign up is a bad sign.

a pretty good conversion rate of free to paid subscribers of a service or content is 3% (usually accomplished through a free trial). given the very poor reception of the announcement, let's say about 1% of their 3 mil youtube subs pay for their service. that's 30k people paying for their new platform. that's $180k a month in their pocket.

(they currently only have 12k subs on patreon so we are being generous here.)

a sponsorship deal (based on my googling, i have less direct experience with this) is anywhere from $10-50 per 1000 views. they've gotten about 1 mil views on their last few videos. 3 mil subs is nothing to shake a stick at, but let's say they're on the lower end of the payscale at $25 per 1000 views. that's $25k a video, $100k a month if they release 1 video a week. their lowest patreon tier is 5 bucks, so even if all their subs are at that tier, that's another $60k, so $160k total. it's entirely likely they're bringing in much more than that when you factor in merch, adsence, etc.

did anyone on their team crunch numbers on how many people would need to sub to make the switch worth it? did anyone do market research on how many people they could convert to paid users? because if not, if they really didn't have a game plan for this, the subscription service was always doomed to fail.

"this was their only option to continue making the content they want to make, with the production value they want."

i watched their announcement video. a key point in that video is that they have done sponsored videos and that's what used to pay for their content, but they did not like the amount of creative control the sponsor had over the content.

look, i get that's no fun. we'd all love creatives to be able to make whatever they want. but when you are a small business with a team of employees relying on you, you have to think about making money, sometimes at the cost of creative liberties.

and they had so many other options to make money for the projects they want to make without jumping to a subscription platform.

they could have started actually promoting their patreon, and maybe done some restructuring of the tiers. why not a highly produced, special series just for patreon members? or a special high-budget episode of each series, while the main series is lower budget?

bite the bullet and continue taking sponsorship deals on some less-produced shows, while axing sponsorships from the ones the crew feels more passionate about.

schedule larger, blowout-production shows only when they can be afforded. this is what Notorious Amongus Guy streamer jerma does. he saves up for big productions like his baseball or dollhouse streams, so he can really get creative with them.

they had other options and they've tried very little, especially when you compare them to other content house business at similar scales. try guys and good mythical morning both put out significant content with significant staff, and have had to diversify their income streams with auxiliary products, shows with widely varied levels of production, etc. but it seems to be working for them. watcher has merch and that's about it, and seems to only want to increase the production quality of ALL their shows.

really, all this just boils down to a terrible business decision. it's hard to say if the watcher team is working with a consultant or anyone outside of their team, but they certainly don't have anyone internally who is experienced with running a business like this. to me, it seems very much like they got in a room together and did some extremely optimistic income ballparking with no research behind it.

and that might have been fine for three dudes running a channel alone, but if they're a business, they have to start making decisions like one.

[bitcoincables]

Bitcoin Could Reach $160k by 2024, Analysts Predict

According to several analysts, the value of Bitcoin could potentially skyrocket to nearly $160,000 by 2024. This surge is expected to happen due to the Bitcoin halving event and the increasing excitement surrounding potential spot ETFs in the United States. The Bitcoin halving will reduce the availability of new BTC on the market, which has historically led to significant price rallies. The next halving is scheduled for April 2024, and traders in the market seem to be anticipating its impact on the cryptocurrency's value.

CryptoQuant, an on-chain analytics provider, recently suggested that Bitcoin is on the verge of a massive rally next year. They predict that ETF approval and the effects of the halving could drive the price of Bitcoin to a minimum of $50,000. Discussions between major traditional financial institutions and the SEC are ongoing regarding ETFs, and it is expected that several applications will likely be approved together in January. Just yesterday, a new application was filed by 7RCC Global, intending to launch the first-ever environment-friendly Bitcoin ETF.

Furthermore, there is speculation that the US Federal Reserve may respond to a decline in inflation rates by reducing interest rates in 2024. Historically, lower interest rates have encouraged investments in higher-risk assets like technology stocks and cryptocurrencies. It is worth noting, however, that Bitcoin prices could experience short-term volatility as recent investors grapple with significant unrealized gains.

You can read the original article here.

#Bitcoin #cryptocurrency #investment #Blockchain

[thenewsart]

Analysts predict Bitcoin surge to $160k by 2024

Several analysts suggest that Bitcoin’s value could skyrocket to nearly $160,000 by 2024. This surge is anticipated due to the Bitcoin halving event and the growing excitement around potential spot ETFs in the United States.  The Bitcoin halving will effectively reduce the availability of new BTC on the market, and it has been a historical precursor to significant price rallies. The next halving…

[rogersip]

The Varo Energy Group Appoints Fatemeh Rezazadeh As Vice President of Hydrogen

The Varo Energy Group has appointed Fatemeh Rezazadeh as its new Vice President of Hydrogen. This comes after the Carlyle Group recently doubling its stake in the company, as well as investing in a further 80% of the biogas maker Bio Energy Coevorden BV.

Carlyle Group doubles its stake in varo energy

The Carlyle Group is acquiring a majority stake in Varo Energy. This is an acquisition that will increase the size of a midstream energy company in northwest Europe. VARO is a leading player in the Western European biofuels market, with a focus on the renewable / bio component element of fuels. Its assets include a 68,000 bpd refinery in Cressier, Switzerland, as well as marketing businesses in Benelux, Germany, France and Netherlands.

The VARO transaction is expected to close in August. The company will have a combined refining capacity of 160k bbl/d and sales of 10MM m3 per year. Two thirds of the funds will be allocated to the sustainable energies business. These include renewables and biogas.

Varo, which was formed in 2012, is focused on blending biofuels and producing bio-gas in western Europe. A growing demand for clean and environmentally friendly products is driving the company's growth. In addition, the firm is particularly positioned to take advantage of opportunities in the energy transition.

Varo owns a 51% share of the Bayernoil refinery in southern Germany. Moreover, it owns distribution and storage facilities in Belgium, Netherlands and Germany. Besides, the company also owns a network of sales points.

The Carlyle Group was interested in acquiring a share of VARO because of its marketing platform. They had already invested in the Belgian company for seven years and hoped to create a leading energy transition company.

The transaction will be funded by the Carlyle International Energy Partners II fund. The funds will be used to invest in oil and gas assets outside North America.

Carlyle has over $25 billion in assets under management and a global team of investment professionals to help them identify and pursue investment opportunities. They have also established a robust investment platform that allows them to make innovative investments in energy across regions.

Carlyle has experience in different industries, including renewables, energy, healthcare and real estate. Their purpose is to provide value for investors. While they are known for their buyout capabilities, they have also been involved in joint ventures and other forms of private equity expansion.

80% stake in biogas maker Bio Energy Coevorden BV

The Varo energy group recently acquired an 80% stake in one of the world's largest biogas makers. Bio Energy Coevorden BV, located on the Netherlands/Germany border, is already one of the largest producers in the region and is set to double in size over the next five years. The company, which is owned by Dutch energy trading group Vito, has been making an effort to diversify its business and the acquisition is an extension of its strategy.

The deal is expected to close in February. Founded in 2012, Varo is a Swiss-based firm that manufactures hydrogen, bio-LNG and other products for the energy and transport industries. Two-thirds of the money will be directed at its sustainable energies business. Its products are used for heating and fuelling and are a small part of a much larger portfolio that also includes storage and distribution. In addition to the biofuels the company manufactures, the company is a distributor of hydrogen derived from natural gas.

The company is also involved in the manufacture of biomethane, a cleaner burning fuel with some potential to be turned into hydrogen and power. The company has been making progress towards achieving its target of one terawatt of biogas production in 2026. With the company's current footprint spanning the Netherlands, Germany and Sweden, it is well-positioned to meet the growing European demand for biogas. As for the competition, Chevron has a history of multi-billion dollar acquisitions in the gas industry. Meanwhile, India's Reliance Industries Ltd suspended the latest gas auction.

There have been many other notable acquisitions by a variety of oil and gas companies over the past few months. This year alone, the most notable include BP's purchase of oil and gas assets from Royal Dutch Shell, Engie's purchase of a stake in the British wind energy company Windpower, and Exxon's entry into the biofuels sector with a $1.5 billion deal to supply biodiesel to French petrochemical firm SABIC.

Appointment of Fatemeh Rezazadeh to the newly created position of Vice President of Hydrogen

For a company that is as big as Varo Energy is, the task of appointing a new vice president is no small feat. As such, the aforementioned job has been given to a high-powered executive. However, the appointment of a particular man does not necessarily mean the demise of the fabled VARO name. In the words of the former, the aforementioned Fatemeh, a.k.a., Fatemeh, is a highly accomplished, albeit not a very original, if you ask me, energy industry veteran. Having spent the past two decades at the top of the food chain in various guises, Fatemeh has a well-rounded resume. Among the many titles under his belt, Fatemeh has held the title of global director of business development for H2 & CCUS at Air Products, where he has been for the better part of a decade. Among his countless achievements, Fatemeh has been named to the prestigious board of directors of the largest and most diverse gas and petroleum trade association in North America.

Mission, vision, mission and values

Varo Energy Group of Companies (Varo) is a major midstream energy company operating in the northwest of Europe. Its focus is on advancing the growth of biofuels, hydrogen and sustainable energy solutions. VARO is committed to becoming a partner of choice in the transition to a carbon-free economy.

The Group was founded in 2012 and has assets in Germany, Switzerland, Austria, Belgium and Netherlands. Among its major businesses are marketing and distribution in Germany, Switzerland, Austria, Benelux, and the Netherlands, and storage and distribution facilities in Germany and Switzerland. A third of its business is focused on the development of hydrogen. In July 2022, VARO announced a new strategy that it hopes will make the Group a leading player in the energy transition.

As part of its strategic plan, VARO will invest $3.5 billion in the 2022-26 period. Two-thirds of its capital will be invested in sustainable energies and one-third in conventional fossil fuels. During this period, the Group will triple its EBITDA to $1 billion. By 2026, two-thirds of the group's EBITDA will be from sustainable energies and one-third from conventional fossil fuels.

Varo plans to decarbonize its manufacturing plants and to develop a hydrogen business. Through its strategy, ONE VARO Transformation, the Group aims to become the "energy transition partner of choice" for its clients. These include transportation companies, industrial customers, and mobility customers.

According to the new strategy, VARO will aim to triple its EBITDA to more than $1 billion in 2026. At the same time, it will aim to become a net zero carbon emitter by the end of 2040. Varo will also invest a total of $3 billion in sustainable energies and hydrogen in the 2022-26 period. In addition to the investments in these areas, VARO will seek regulatory approval to increase its stake in the renewable energy company to two-thirds.

On the appointment of Fatemeh Rezazadeh, VARO's new chief executive officer, VARO announced that its new mission is to help customers make the transition to a zero-carbon future. Her contributions will be essential in integrating VARO's hydrogen offer into a comprehensive customer value proposition.

[sellmyhomefastdenverco]

Colorado’s housing market would have to crash to be affordable

According to the Colorado Futures Center, a dollar amount has been assigned to how much the housing market in Colorado must plummet to match those of 2015. The Centennial State was never cheap, but it has become significantly more expensive in recent years. In 2015, only about 76% of the state's housing was affordable to households making their county's median income. But by 2020, that number had decreased to 51%. Sell My Home Fast Denver CO To measure affordability, the center established the rule that 30% of one's net income should go towards shelter costs. If a household spends anymore than that on housing, they are said to be "cost-burdened." In order for Colorado's housing to be as affordable as it was in 2015, median income would have to rise by 32%. Because median income and home prices vary from one county to the next, some housing markets are less affordable than others. To return to 2015 levels, home values in the Denver metro counties must decrease by $140,000 to $300,000. Homes in Denver would have to cost $200,000 more; homes in Jefferson County would need to cost $180,000 more; homes in Adams County would require a reduction of $160K; and houses in Arapahoe County would need a price reduction of $158K. Housing markets would need to drop even further outside of the Denver metropolitan area in order for Colorado's unaffordability issue to improve. In the metro area, counties have expensive housing, but their median incomes are also high. The situation is not much different in rural areas of the Eastern and Western Slopes. Lincoln, Morgan, and Washington counties would have to decline by more than 40% to recover their 2015 affordability levels. The bottom line: If you're trying to figure out which counties should consider bankruptcy, the answer is clearly South Dakota. The state's median home value has increased by more than $100,000 since 2015 in these four counties alone. Their housing values have skyrocketed far above the rest of the state, meaning they'd need to lose the most if they wanted to return to 2015 affordable levels. In Grand and Summit Counties, for example, the median house price would need to drop 59 percent and 53%, respectively, in order for them to be affordable again.

[businessborderofficial]

Promising NFT Projects That Can Lead to HUGE Gains

Even though the beginning of NFTs dates back to 2015, it took the industry a long time to reach global acceptance. With the technological advancements and the rise in popularity of crypto, people started to see the potential of this huge market.

It seems like NFTs arrived slowly, but are here to stay.

What are NFTs?

NFT or Non-fungible token is a new kind of digital collectibles that can make you a lot of money. Non-fungible means that the collectibles are not with equal value. For example, you can trade one Bitcoin for another, whereas NFTs each have unique characteristics and therefore different values than others.

NFTs are part of the Ethereum blockchain where each image or GIF has stored information about the purchase and the current owner of the digital file.

What Makes NFTs Special?

Owning a one-of-a-kind image from an artist is a pretty big deal. Some are also ready to pay millions of dollars just because they see a future in this technology and probably think that they would be worth more in the future.

What’s stopping people from copying the digital art sold on such platforms?

Well, nothing. Anybody can download the same image that someone paid $1 million for and store it on their computer. The truth is, you can also make a copy of the Mona Lisa and hang it on your wall, but you know that’s not the real deal.

How Much Money Can you Make with NFTs?

This year has been wild for the NFT industry. We’ve seen some amazing 8-figure sales, such as the Beeple, Everdays – The First 5000 Days which sold for $69 million in March this year.

We’ve also seen some other amazing and highly successful projects like the Bored Ape Yacht Club where the minting (starting) price for the apes was only 0.08 ETH or around $300.

After the project started getting some traction, the prices went through the roof. Especially after some celebrities like Steph Curry decided to drop $180,000 for his Bored Ape collection.

Now the lowest price for an Ape is almost 40 ETH or around $160K!

Just a few days ago, someone hit a record sale of a Bored Ape Yacht Club NFT for $2.25M.

Bored Ape #7090

This made people a lot of money, which explains the reason why everyone is looking for the next big NFT project.

Most Promising NFT Projects Right Now

The best way to make a lot of money with NFTs is to find projects that are just starting right now. After the project starts getting some traction, it may be too late (expensive) to invest in.

This is why we selected few promising projects that have great potential of becoming something big in the near future.

Super Bunnies

This is one of the most promising NFT projects that has a rather unique concept. It is based on super-hero bunnies divided into two sides 5,000 Light Super Bunnies and 5,000 Dark Super Bunnies.

The project launched on 1 September 2021, and since then it has built an impressive community.

Since Super Bunnies is a community-driven project, each NFT is a membership card that lets you participate in which direction this project will turn.

The best thing about Super Bunnies is the deflationary breeding mechanism, where people can burn three bunnies from their collection for getting rarer Tigers.

This will not only pump up the value of the rare Tiger NFT but also increase the value of the current Super Bunnies since they will become rarer.

Currently, the floor price sits at 0.1 ETH, which is an absolute steal considering the upcoming projects that the devs are working on.

The team behind the Super Bunnies is working on a couple of exciting projects like a training system where you can get EXP and level up your Super bunny.

On top of that, each bunny comes with stats like Agility, Intelligence, Defence, and Strenght that make this project even more interesting. Especially, since the devs are trying to build a game where super bunnies will battle with each other.

Last but not least, the art looks amazing!

All of these factors suggest a bright future for this project and potential gains for the investors.

Axie Infinity

This is an already popular Pokemon-type game that you can play on your smartphone or computer. You can train your creature, learn new skills, and battle computer-controlled enemies or real-life players.

What makes this game so special?

Well, the developers have found a way to incorporate NFTs into the system. So, the monsters from the game are actually NFTs that you can mint play and sell.

Axie Infinity has already built a large player base with more than 150,000 players live, and the number keeps growing.

Wanna Panda

This is a still-unreleased collection of 10,000 hand-drawn pandas that can shake the NFT space. Each collectible is one-of-a-kind that will quickly become a must-have token for NFT collectors.

The launch date is still unconfirmed, so make sure you join their Discord chat to keep up with the latest announcements. The mint price for the launch is set for 0.07 ETH and part of the money will go to charities and back to the community.

They are also planning to release merch and some interesting stuff like comics. On top of that 25% of all royalties collected through the secondary market will be used to fund the community wallet for future growth.

Wanna Panda NFTs will have 200 variations of unique traits that can be easily classified through the 5 tiers:

N- Normal (4,500)

R – Rare (3,500)

SR – Super rare (1,500)

SSR – Superior super rare (kind a weird name) (475)

SP – Special (25)

These are some of the most promising projects that might provide a great return on investment.

If you want to find the next big thing in the NFT world, make sure to do your own research before investing.

The post Promising NFT Projects That Can Lead to HUGE Gains appeared first on Business Border.

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[douchebagbrainwaves]

MICROSOFT WORD DID IT TO THE MANUFACTURERS OF SPECIALIZED VIDEO EDITING SYSTEMS, AND NOW THAT WE DON'T REALIZE WHAT A LEAP IT MUST HAVE BEEN WHEN THEY FIRST STARTED TO

For the angel to have someone to make the medicine go down. Good people can fix bad ideas, but the people who worked on it. They wanted to get staffed up as soon as you can, to a limited extent, simulate a closure a function that generates accumulators—a function that refers to variables defined in enclosing scopes by defining a class with one method and a field to replace each variable from an enclosing scope. So why not make work more like home? It would be hard to sell. They were already very visible when I got there in 1998. Programs composed of expressions. Think about it. So far that is a knowledge of what various individual philosophers have said about different topics over the years.

But many will want a copy of something they made, but they are still missing a few things back from them. The number one thing not to do is say one word to them, the unsuccessful founders would also fail to chase down the implications of what's said to you can sometimes lead to uncomfortable conclusions. The most dramatic I learned immediately, in the sense we mean today. Would it be so bad to add a spoonful of sugar to make the food good. But that comes with the territory. To be self-perpetuating. But it's possible to be part of a startup that's working around the clock doing deals and pumping out new features, and dies because they can't pay their bills and their ISP unplugs their server. Wouldn't it be amazing if we could achieve a 50% success rate? So in a sense the field is still at the first step. The field is a lot more than money.

There's nothing about knowing how to program that magically enables business people to understand them. Suppress one, and looking back, I'm amazed how much worry it caused me. The Metaphysics is among the least read of all famous books. In OO languages, you can probably keep a few things back from them. You're already ahead—$214k a month versus $160k—and pulling away fast. They have a literal representation, can be stored in variables, can be passed as arguments, and so on, just like a software company to pay off my college loans. Something similar happened when people first started trying to talk about your idea is to judge you, not the idea.

Soon after, the western world fell on intellectual hard times. The difference between then and now is that now I understand why Berkeley is probably not worth trying to understand. Soon after we arrived at Yahoo, we got an email from a founder that helped me understand something important: why it's safe for startup founders to be nice people. If you try to translate the Lisp/Perl/Smalltalk/Javascript code into Python you run into some limitations. Surely all smart people would be interested in this mystery—for the same reason that, if I were a legislator, I'd be interested in it, if one could only figure out what customers want? Most good hackers have no more idea of the greatest generation. And however tough things get for the Octoparts, I predict they'll succeed. It didn't matter what type. Something that curtly contradicts one's beliefs can be hard.

Google. But even that may be overrated. Hardy's boast that number theory had no use whatsoever wouldn't disqualify it. One disadvantage of living off the revenues. If so then we can put some faith in it; ITA's software includes a lot of other companies using Lisp. So the acquisition came to a screeching halt while we tried to sort this out. That sounds a preposterous claim to make. It's not merely that it's longer. When I asked her what specific things she remembered speakers always saying, she mentioned: that the way to convince people.

Recursion. If he was bad at extracting money from people, at worst this curve would be some constant multiple less than 1 of what it might have been. The idea of evolution is another. He said that in the early stages of a startup have to include business people in a startup is the feeling that what you're doing; even if you're never called on to solve advanced problems, you can just avoid dying, you get millions of dollars, and you suppress the other. Julian thought we ought to value the company at several million dollars. Mostly they crawl off somewhere and die. If you want to invest two years in something that is really just a bunch of guys with some ideas. Let's take a look inside the brain of the pointy-haired bosses.

The point of high-level languages is to give you bigger abstractions—bigger bricks, as it were, so you have to create a search site that didn't suck. They'd charge a lot, but wouldn't it be worth it? If it seems surprising that the quality of programmers at your company starts to drop, you enter a death spiral from which there is no recovery. S def inc self, i: self. The more your conclusions disagree with readers' present beliefs, the more leverage you get from using a powerful language, b write a de facto interpreter for one, or draw conclusions so narrow that no one comes and arrests you if you actually start in that mode. So if one group abandons this territory, there will be zero. Someone who is a good hacker. Something similar happened when people first started describing things as hot or cold and when someone asked what is heat? When I was a philosophy major in college. Whether the number of founders in the same position is asymptotic or merely large, there are twenty more that operate in niche markets or live quietly down in the infrastructure. Sometimes young programmers notice the eccentricities of eminent hackers and decide to adopt some of their own choosing.

[dodgesrtdemon-blog]

2018 Dodge Challenger SRT Demon False Advertising

The Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (“FCA”) 2018 Dodge Challenger SRT Demon (“Demon”) has been the subject of much discussion since FCA's 2017 New York Auto Show Demon introduction.  Not long after its introduction, in June 2017 FCA announced the car would be a limited production run, “one and done”, of 3,300 cars. Demand for the 3,300 Demons outpaced the limited production and created a healthy aftermarket even before production ended in June 2018.

 The FCA Dodge Demon production has now ended but Ebay.com and Auto marketplaces like Autotrader.com still have new and used Demons for sale. Auction houses are getting upwards of $190k for Demons that MSRP’d from $83k-98K. And FCA was able to again leverage their long lived Challenger platform and create a lot of brand "buzz".

 However, all the attention the Demon has produced may also result in the Demon being the subject of nationwide dealer advertising misrepresentations.

 In 2015, FCA created the Challenger SRT Hellcat and had issues with distribution, customers waiting months for cars, and dealer mark ups. FCA learned much from what occurred, and FCA designed the distribution of the 2018 Demon accordingly.

 "We learned a lot when we launched the wildly popular SRT Hellcats,” said Tim Kuniskis, Head of Passenger Car Brands, Dodge, SRT, Chrysler and Fiat — FCA North America. “We’ve taken that information and created an allocation plan that is clear and concise, builds on Demon’s position as the Dodge/SRT halo and makes it easy for our customers to understand how they can put a Demon into their garage and, ultimately, out on the drag strip.” (http://moparconnectionmagazine.com/fcas-allocation-system-for-2018-dodge-demon-that-takes-aim-at-markups/)

 Prior to June 21, 2017 when FCA opened Demon ordering, FCA planned Demon distribution by allotting cars to some Dodge dealers based on prior performance.  Some dealers received 0 Demons, some received 1-4, and few large volume dealers received more allocations.

 FCA also required any dealer who was issued an allocation for a Demon to place a customer order to claim the allocation. So the allocation went to the dealer but only if there was verified and contracted pre-sale to a consumer.

 Furthermore, in an attempt to dissuade dealers from marking the Demon up over MSRP, FCA created a production queue whereby Demons ordered and sold to customers at MSRP or less would be produced first, and cars with dealer markups above MSRP produced later.

 Additionally, FCA required buyers to supply notarized documents including an indemnity waiver to protect FCA from misuse of the car. In summary, FCA was attempting to control the Demon's distribution and pricing to a greater extent. And as they had done with the Hellcat previously, stated that they were staying close and monitoring the Demon’s distribution.

 "When a dealership has an allocation and wants to order a Demon for a customer, it must go through the concierge program. The team there will first make sure it’s a verified sold order and then an acknowledgement document must be completed and signed by the customer and the dealer. After that, it must be notarized. This document includes some safety considerations, the Demon’s technical specifications, the options that are being ordered and the contract price of the vehicle." (http://moparconnectionmagazine.com/fcas-allocation-system-for-2018-dodge-demon-that-takes-aim-at-markups/)

 All Demons had to be pre-sold to a customer for the dealer to claim the allocation and place an order.  That sale required a notarized agreement by the buyer and dealer and monitored through the Demon concierge Dept. As a result, there should not have been many available Demon cars for sale at dealerships unless a buyer backed out post order, or if a dealer placed their allotment order for a "close friend" or party which resulted in the car in the showroom.

 But if a buyer shopped online or monitored the Dodge Demon's availability, they would have come across many Demon ads on website marketplaces like Autotrader, Car Guru’s, and others. New and used Demons are and were available pretty much from the beginning of Demon deliveries in November 2017. At any one time, there were 150-200 new Demons available for sale, nationwide, from dealers, as advertised on Autotrader.com, for MSRP price or less. So how could there be such a supply of cars available for a pre-sold car where demand had surpassed production?

 Most dealers utilize bulk uploading programs to link inventories onto the internet marketplaces like Autotrader, Car Guru’s, etc.. Dealers use bulk uploading because at any one time, a dealer might have 200-500 cars available in their constantly changing inventory. And Dealers want just about every car advertised so that buyers can see them. So why would a dealer upload and represent a car for sale on marketplaces like Autotrader if not available for sale and/or with the wrong price?

 Part two of this involves FCA's internal processes which seemingly upload dealer orders into the dealers computerized inventory system when the cars leave the factory and are en-route to the dealership. This allows FCA to track and account for all the cars that leave their plants, and maybe thereafter as well.

 So FCA is populating a dealer inventory with all Demons leaving the plant (estimated November 2017-June 2018) for Demons on pre-sold orders (estimated sold dates in June thru September 2017), and the dealers are linking their inventory to auto marketplaces like Autotrader. So how many of the Demons en route to dealers over the 8 month delivery time spectrum (Nov 2017-June 2018) are being input into Autotrader and advertised for sale when they were already sold 3-8 months prior to the advertising dates?

 The pre-sale of the Demon was retrofitted into existing FCA delivery and inventory uploading processes. It appears nobody at FCA and the dealerships were watching this transpire, or they were watching it and did not correct it.  Either way, as a result, many hundreds or more Demons not available for sale were being advertised for sale on Autotrader and the like, months after being pre-sold, and many at the incorrect prices. And potentially hundreds of respondents answering each of the dealer advertisements.

 "Over the past few weeks, we have seen dozens of dealership website postings advertising 2018 Dodge Challenger SRT Demons available for sale.  In most cases, if you call the dealership and ask about the Demon on their website, you will learn that the vehicle has been ordered by a customer who hasn’t picked it up yet. Basically, those dealerships are using a customer’s car to draw traffic to their website, and it is working." ( https://www.allpar.com/news/2018/01/why-you-can-still-buy-a-demon-39226)

 In addition, dealerships have some editing control to change their ads after the upload syncing of their inventory into Autotrader. Control meaning ability to adjust the price, info details, availability, even areas where custom verbiage can be added to the advertisement, or even completely delete the ad. 

 If a buyer frequented Auto trader over the last 6-8 months or so, they would have seen hundreds of "available" cars priced at MSRP or less, with some cars advertised as "sold", some cars with "market adjusted prices", and just about everything in between. But for the volume of advertisements representing MSRP or less priced Demons available for sale, most dealers didn’t adjust what needed to be changed in the ad which is drove this entire problem.  Those dealers allowed the ads to run or were unaware of the false ads running with the existing information regardless of the car not being available. Or in the case where the car was at the dealership for sale, let the ad run with the wrong price. Moreover, if they were unaware of the issue and the ad, they were made aware when the first e-mail or phone call came in from an ad respondent.

 So at any one time, there were hundreds of cars unavailable for sale, being advertised nationwide as available, albeit, worldwide, with the additional problem of most of them misrepresented in price.

What does this all add up to?

 In most states, advertising issues like what is referenced above are addressed by consumer protection laws and advertising guidelines. Differing by state, laws exist that are very specific to advertising and advertising claims. And as many consumer protection laws were created specifically with car dealership advertising in mind, what is pointed out above could be a major problem for FCA and dealers that did not properly manage their advertising.

 What about the most obvious excuse being “FCA and the dealers made a mistake, an oversight, were unaware, etc”. Would that deflect liability? The answer is maybe or no, it might not (depending on a particular state’s laws).  In many states, consumer protection and advertising laws do not recognize “mistakes”, etc. If it did allow for mistakes, then that excuse would always be abused to justify bad behavior and those bad behaviors would repeat. The mitigating or aggravating factors of the “mistakes” vs. “purposeful intent behaviors” are typically looked at within the punitive damages framework of litigation. The black and white of the violation itself carries with it that particular state’s calculation of damages and multiples of those damages if present within the law before anything punitive is considered.

 So how could someone who never got to purchase a car have been damaged? 

 The Demon's aftermarket value has been fluctuating between $120k-199k for a car with a max loaded MSRP of $98k. If a buyer tried to buy a falsely advertised Demon at $90k MSRP and were told, the car is sold (as in 6 months ago when the dealer per ordered it for a buyer), or sorry, the car is not for sale at $90k, it’s for sale at $160k, the potential damages are the market value of the car ($199k and going up), or the actual dealer sale price ($160k), minus the price they advertised the car for ($90k) for a damage total of $109k or $70k respectively. It’s called “benefit of the bargain” and if denied it through a violation, damages may be sustained. Laws and calculation of damages differ state to state. If a buyer could not buy a Demon, yet they answered some of these false ads, the dealer may have broken that state's consumer protection laws.

 The additional potential problem for FCA and dealers is that some states award multiples of the actual damages, plus attorney fees to be paid by the defendants. And the window is open as well for punitive damages depending the seriousness of the violation and intent. Remember, laws are meant to punish and dissuade violators from repeating. So a dealer who falsely advertised a $90k car and sold it for $130, now worth $200k, could be looking at several hundred thousand dollars in damages/fees to each person that answered the false advertisement for that same car.  And FCA being the head of this particular “mistake” could be looking at millions if a class action develops. False Advertising cases tend to be very black and white fact driven. What occurred is in writing/print and not easily disputed.

 In the past where a dealer falsely advertises something at a price and a shopper demands by law to be able to purchase it as advertised, a dealer simply has to go get the buyer "another one", and transact at the advertised conditions to remedy the issue. Then, problem solved, the buyer has the benefit of the bargain. Perhaps this is why the FCA inventory upload and Autotrader ad link has never been a problem before. If a problem arose, a dealer would simply find the buyer another of the same car or order it.

 But how does a dealer remedy a Demon when most of the available cars have already been sold, a dealer cannot order anymore, and the benefit of the bargain keeps growing in value in the aftermarket?  FCA is not making any more Demons. This is what was meant by FCA retrofitted the Demon into existing distribution processes without seeing the end result. The pre selling of the car required additional adjustments to the distribution process in order to avoid all these problems.

 Every passing day a potentially larger damage calculation exists because of Demon rising values. Even if the value levels off, the argument for loss of benefit using the highest auction prices realized is valid and already stands at $190k+. For any single dealer, a mere handful of respondents who answered their advertisement could be a major issue.

 FCA and Dodge dealers either failed to see the differences with the Demon and adjust their advertising norms and inventory process, or is it possible they knew full well about the advertising results and preferred the benefits?

 “We know some dealers may be tempted to sell to the highest bidder, but we are encouraging them to leverage the Demon as a halo for both the brand and their dealership, to bring customers into their showrooms and see everything we have to offer” said Tim Kuniskis, head of passenger car brands for Fiat Chrysler North America. (http://moparconnectionmagazine.com/fcas-allocation-system-for-2018-dodge-demon-that-takes-aim-at-markups/)

 So FCA by its own words stated that the car is to be used to bring people into the dealerships. Does that mean FCA permitted, or turned a blind eye to the advertisements?  Will FCA claim they didn’t know what was going on for months? How can the car be used to bring people into the dealership if the cars were all pre sold and only have to be delivered to the buyer upon arrival to the dealership?

 "A source inside Fiat Chrysler said the automaker is "monitoring" dealer actions in selling Demons, but there is little the factory can do beyond encouraging dealers to sell their Demons at sticker price."( https://autoweek.com/article/supercars/dealing-devil-dealers-are-auctioning-srt-demon-allocations)

 Is it possible for FCA to not be aware of hundreds of new Demons up for sale at any one time? Is it possible that no single consumer called FCA customer service to complain? Did FCA not see all the articles citing the false advertisements, or the postings in car forums? And both FCA and each dealer appear to have benefitted through these false advertisements. They benefit through attaining more sales leads and traffic, they benefit through the brand being highlighted in the press, through other car sales, etc.

  Tim Kuniskis states:

 “We haven’t built the first one yet, but people have been talking about this car since January,” he said. “So the hype has been building and selling other Challengers. Our Challenger sales are through the roof. We’re having an all-time record year to date.”

(https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/chrysler/2017/09/17/dodge-sees-payoff-demon-hype/105745768/)

 So did FCA know about it from the beginning, and or through its own inaction permit the false advertising for benefit? As it looks right now, this could easily be a Class Action against FCA since so many persons have likely been affected and the violation and damages are consistent. How many inquiries were made via these false advertisements, and moreover how many other Challengers or Dodge products were sold by virtue of disappointed Demon buyers settling for another trim level? These questions and more surround these occurrences and time will tell to what extent the dealers and/or FCA may be held accountable.

 We continue to monitor this complex issue and welcome any feedback or submissions of individual experiences regarding this subject.

[superliveabetterlife-blog]

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[austin262231]

While digital currency markets have increased significantly in value a number of crypto asset proponents are wondering how far the next bull run will take them. For instance, the last three bitcoin bull runs saw different price spikes and significant drops below 80% as well. If the next bitcoin bull run follows a similar pattern, it’s quite possible the crypto-asset could reach $160k per unit.

[thecryptoreport]

Interest in DeFi Falls to Pre-Mania Level, Uniswap Volume on a Decline Despite CEX’s Issue

Interest in DeFi Falls to Pre-Mania Level, Uniswap Volume on a Decline Despite CEX’s Issue

The DeFi market continues to see strong growth, with the total value locked (TVL) in the sector above $11 billion. While a record of almost 160k BTC is locked in DeFi, the locked Ether is also approaching the peak at 8.7 million ETH.

The mid of June was the “turning point” for DeFi finance, as per LunarCRUSH’s report confirmed by Google Trends when a steady upward trend in the US searches for the…

[cladeymoore]

Around the Block #8: The promise and potential of synthetic assets

Coinbase Around the Block sheds light on key issues in the crypto space. In this edition, Justin Mart explores the synthetic asset landscape as well as other notable news in the space.

Today, most Decentralized Finance (DeFi) applications look like copies of traditional financial products. You can swap one token for another, borrow or lend a token in a money market, and even trade on an exchange with margin and leverage.

But DeFi can go much further. Blockchains are open, global platforms that carry programmable value at their core. It’s only a matter of time before DeFi produces something truly unique — with no corollary in the traditional world.

Enter the first possible example: synthetic assets

What are Synthetic Assets?

Synthetic assets are a new type of derivative. Recall that derivatives are assets whose value is derived from a different asset or benchmark. Things like futures and options, where buyers and sellers trade contracts that track the future price of an asset.

DeFi simply adds a twist: synthetic assets are tokens that are digital representations of derivatives. Where derivatives are financial contracts that provide custom exposure to an underlying asset or financial position, synthetic assets are simply tokenized representations of similar positions.

As such, synthetic assets carry unique advantages:

Permissionless creation: Blockchains like Ethereum empower anyone to construct synthetic asset systems

Easy access and transferability: Synthetic assets are freely transferable and tradeable

Global pools of liquidity: Blockchains are global by default, anyone in the world can participate

No central party risk: There are no central parties with privileged control

What are some examples?

To start, synthetic assets can tokenize physical assets, bringing them onto a blockchain and imbuing them with all the advantages listed above. Imagine anyone in the world buying a token that tracks the S&P 500, and being able to use that token as collateral in other DeFi projects like Compound, Aave, or MakerDAO. The model can be extended to commodities like gold or grains, equities like TSLA or indexes like SPY, debt instruments like bonds, and anything else.

Consider that last piece — this is where it gets exciting. We’re not far away from exotic, novel instruments like pop culture markets, meme markets, personal token markets, etc, that can be traded through synthetic assets.

And the implied market size is substantial given that any asset can have a synthetic version brought onto a blockchain. Just as one reference point, the total global equities trading volume Q1’20 is ~$32.5T, which theoretically could be replaced in part by synthetic versions that trade on a global pool of liquidity with open and free access to anyone.

A specific example: Poop Exchange

In late 2019, a few developers had an idea and released a prototype — what if we had a synthetic asset that tracks the frequency of poop sightings in San Francisco? Token holders profit when more poop is sighted, and the token issuer profits if poop sightings decrease, using an oracle that simply reports the number of poop sightings.

This poop token market could align incentives for local SF government. If the city of SF issues poop tokens, they are incentivized to clean up the streets in order to profit. Conversely, citizens could purchase poop tokens as an emotional hedge, ensuring that at least they make money if the streets don’t get better. A simple example, but showcases the potential of synthetic assets and markets for anything.

What types of Synthetic Asset platforms exist today?

Universal Market Access (UMA)*

UMA is a synthetic-asset protocol that allows anyone to recreate traditional financial products, exotic crypto-based products, and more. Through UMA, two counterparties come together to permissionlessly create an arbitrary financial contract that is secured through economic incentives (collateral), and enforced through smart contracts on Ethereum. Given Ethereum’s global, open nature, the barriers to entry are significantly reduced, creating “Universal Market Access.”

Today, UMA community members are focused on first building tokenized yield curves (e.g., yUSD), but the platform can be used by anyone to create any manner of financial contracts. Just some examples:

Crypto-based contracts: Crypto futures tokens, yield curves, perpetual swaps, etc.

Tokens that track cryptocurrency or DeFi metrics: E.g., BTC dominance, DeFi TVL charts, decentralized exchange (DEX) market share charts, or any other metric.

Traditional financial products: US & Global equities (e.g., a TSLA or APPL token), private pension plans, insurance and annuity products

Exotics: The poop.exchange example, pop culture, meme markets, etc.

UMA is positioning itself as the protocol for the long-tail of exciting and creative financial markets. As with poop.exchange, some of these contracts might be used to fundamentally realign incentives — a zero-to-one innovation!

* Note: UMA is a Coinbase Ventures portfolio company

Synthetix

Synthetix is a protocol for creating global liquidity for synthetic assets on Ethereum. Synthetix facilitates the creation and trading of numerous asset classes including crypto, equities, and commodities, all on-chain.

Tokens that track the price of these assets can be bought and sold natively within the Synthetix ecosystem, which uses a combination of collateral, staking, and trading fees to operate. Notably, the Synthetix ecosystem is transitioning to be operated entirely by a structure of DAOs, where the SNX token is central to the entire ecosystem. SNX can be staked to provide collateral backing synthetic asset positions while accruing trading fees in return, and act as a governance token in the DAOs.

As the leading synthetic asset platform in DeFi, Synthetix has currently issued over $150 million of “Synths”. Chief among them is sUSD, their platform’s stablecoin, which is approaching $100M in market cap.

Today, Synthetix mostly offers crypto-based synthetic assets like sETH and sBTC, as well as index-tokens like iDeFi and iLINK that track a basket of assets. Much of their traction can be owed to their unique market design, where assets trade against an oracle price and therefore suffer no slippage when buying or selling.

Others

Several other synthetic asset platforms are being built with unique tradeoffs and design decisions. Non-exhaustively, consider Morpher, DerivaDEX*, FutureSwap, DyDx, and Opyn, Hegic, or Augur.

* Note: DerivaDEX is a Coinbase Ventures portfolio company

Conclusion

Synthetic assets are new primitives made possible by the maturation of Ethereum and the DeFi ecosystem. But we are just at the beginning, and should not be blind to the inherent risks:

Smart contract risk: Exploits in smart contracts are possible, and synthetic assets could be strong targets

Governance risk: These platforms are mostly often governed by their decentralized participants, which remains relatively untested at scale

Oracle Risk: Many synthetic assets rely on oracles to function properly, which carry their own trust assumptions and failure modes

Platform risk: Ethereum and other underlying blockchains may struggle at scale, and perform worse the moment you need them most. Fee markets can be inefficient, and frontrunning or griefing attacks could be challenging.

However, balance the downside with the potential. Synthetic assets represent open and global access to existing financial markets, itself an important primitive. But cut deeper and you can see the innovation behind markets for anything.

We can potentially use these primitives to construct novel, new financial markets that can fundamentally align incentives and change the way we live our lives.

To participate in the emerging cryptoeconomy, sign up for Coinbase today.

Quick Hits: Commentary on Notable News

DEX Volume Continues Strong Growth, Helped by Novel DeFi Monetary Experiments

DEXs have historically struggled with traction, doing just ~$3B collectively in 2019. However volume has exploded in 2020, with >$20B YTD and $15B in just the past two months. This growth trajectory accelerates the DEX adoption curve and ushers them into the spotlight.

This volume comes from ~200K active addresses over the last month (where Uniswap alone records ~160K, but likely some crossover between platforms). Uniswap is dominating DEX market share with ~45% YTD (and 70% in the last week). Other popular DEXs are Curve and Balancer with ~16% and ~7% YTD market share, but on the horizon are new entrants Serum, Sushiswap, and more.

Key to DEX growth is the emergence of several DeFi projects pioneering novel monetary models, and typically launched through “fair launches” — where there are no previous owners and no outside funding, a fixed supply, and distribution solely through yield farming. As such, they represent a layer of experimentation and game theory never seen before. Some examples:

Ampleforth (AMPL)

The pioneering example is Ampleforth (AMPL), which has an economic model that aims to keep the AMLP token near $1 by automatically adjusting supply in response to demand, a process known as rebasing. Quite simply: when AMPL is above $1, everyone’s balance increases in order to drive the unit price down. Conversely, when AMPL is below $1, everyone’s balance decreases in order to drive the price up. Note that despite rebases, your market share will stay constant.

As we can see, the AMPL price is anything but stable. The monetary experiment instead seems to produce a rapidly oscillating price and market cap with whipsaw volatility, surpassing $600M in market capitalization at one point.

Yams (YAM)

Yam was a surprise launch on August 11, supposedly built in 10 days by borrowing code from several battle tested DeFi projects. It functions nearly identical to AMPL, but with some differences:

A rebase mechanism nearly identical to AMPL, targeting $1

A treasury controlled by YAM holders, funded by allocating a portion of rebases to purchase stablecoins

Governance contracts that enable community ownership of the treasury, where votes determine how the treasury is used

Fair distribution with no team or investor token allocations. Tokens are entirely distributed via yield farming

What followed was a modern-day DeFi story; the inaugural version of YAMs unfortunately shipped with a bug in the rebase contract and the governance contract. The surprising juxtaposition meant that attempts to fix the rebase contract were hindered by the bug in the governance contract, and ultimately resulted in a broken system with $750K of stablecoins permanently stuck.

The fallout? YAM V1 is broken, but the community rallied, forked the code, and is in the process of launching YAM V2.

Following AMPL and YAMs, other tokens quickly arrived with their own unique flavors:

Spaghetti.Money: A yield farmed token, but with no governance (to avoid the fate of YAM), and deflationary (1% of every transaction is burned)

Shrimp.Finance: A yield farmed token with no rebase. Shrimp chose DICE and CREAM as two less mainstream tokens to use as staking, demonstrating a novel mechanism to reach different communities

Zombie.Finance: A yield farmed, rebasing token with an added rule eliminating tokens holders with less than 1 ZOMBIE after a rebase

$BASED: an economic game of chicken which started with yield farming and will soon transition to rebasing

And who knows what tomorrow will bring. These experiments are being played out in real time, with real value, and for now are traded predominantly on decentralized exchanges.

News from Coinbase

Borrow cash using Bitcoin on Coinbase

Marc Andreessen and Gokul Rajaram join the Coinbase board of directors

Numeraire, UMA, BAND, and Celo launch on Coinbase Pro

Marcus Hughes joins Coinbase as GM for Europe

Coinbase publishes ERC-20 token listing guidelines

Manish Gupta joins Coinbase as VP of Engineering

News from the Crypto Industry

FTX acquires Blockfolio for rumored $150M in bid for retail expansion; and hires Robinhood’s former head of crypto

Aave’s U.K. entity granted E-Money Institution License, eyes fiat rails

Blockchain.com raises interest rates on interest-bearing accounts

Binance announces DeFi savings product, touts 14.8% APY

Institutional Crypto News

BitMEX set to require KYC for all accounts

SEC updates the accredited investor definition; Hester Pierce sworn in for second term

Fidelity launches inaugural fund for wealthy investors

Former Prudential CEO George Ball advises wealthy investors to buy Bitcoin

News from Emerging Crypto Businesses

Uniswap fork Sushiswap reaches $700M TVL less than one week after launch

FTX partners with Solana to launch Serum, a new DEX

Wrapped BTC continues to grow with minting rate surpassing mining rate

ETC hit with 3rd 51% attack this month

ETH 2.0 testnet Medalla encounters headwinds

The opinions expressed on this website are those of the authors who may be associated persons of Coinbase, Inc., or its affiliates (“Coinbase”) and who do not represent the views, opinions and positions of Coinbase. Information is provided for general educational purposes only and is not intended to constitute investment or other advice on financial products. Coinbase makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, suitability, or validity of any information on this website and will not be liable for any errors, omissions, or delays in this information or any losses, injuries, or damages arising from its display or use. Unless otherwise noted, all images provided herein are the property of Coinbase.

This website contains links to third-party websites or other content for information purposes only (“Third-Party Sites”). The Third-Party Sites are not under the control of Coinbase, and Coinbase is not responsible for the content of any Third-Party Site, including without limitation any link contained in a Third-Party Site, or any changes or updates to a Third-Party Site. Coinbase is not responsible for webcasting or any other form of transmission received from any Third-Party Site. Coinbase is providing these links to you only as a convenience, and the inclusion of any link does not imply endorsement, approval or recommendation by Coinbase of the site or any association with its operators.

Around the Block #8: The promise and potential of synthetic assets was originally published in The Coinbase Blog on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

from Money 101 https://blog.coinbase.com/around-the-block-8-the-promise-and-potential-of-synthetic-assets-9fbb15c2b24e?source=rss----c114225aeaf7---4 via http://www.rssmix.com/

[adamjkay]

Musings on Amazon’s Rising Stock Price And Seattle’s Rising Home Prices

There are a lot of theories out there about why Seattle’s home prices are rising more than the rest of a recently rising US housing market. I’ve heard about excess/cheap global capital creating the environment for unaffordable and under-utilized housing, and I’ve heard about a zoning/regulation and labor constrained construction industry unable to create ample supply in a growing city.   Others have pointed at Amazon as being a big reason for the house price boom but none have really pointed to a particular causation other than “well paying jobs.”  And while I don’t doubt that these all factor into the current situation, what has created a huge amount of wealth in Seattle is Amazon’s rising stock price and employee ownership & compensation programs for permanent Seattle Amazon workers.

To illustrate, let’s take a guess that Amazon hired 3000 Seattle engineers in 2013. That’s not that hard to believe given the company has gone from about 5000 to 40,000 Seattle employees in 7 years, and the largest job class at Amazon HQ is Software Engineer. Let’s say each of these hires was granted $20,000 in stock units that vested over a 3-year period (a common vesting schedule), where most units ~75% vested in the final year, 2016.

That means Jamie Engineer is granted $20k of stock at $325 each (62 units). Also, each year they are granted another batch of stocks on a rolling 3-year vesting basis to fill up their “total compensation tank”. So in 2014, they are granted $18k in stocks at $350/each (51 units) to fully vest by 2017, and another in 2015 of $18k of stocks at $450/each (40 units) to vest fully by 2018. That means by the end of 2016, their first grant along with a small portion of the subsequent two grants is theirs. For Jaime, let’s say that’s about 70 stock units.

And of those 3000 engineers, let’s say 1500 (50%) of them are still around at Amazon to receive their first large vesting payout. That’s 1500 individuals, or, say, 1500 contributors to household incomes, mostly in their 20s and 30s, that are possibly looking to buy a home.  They’ve been in Seattle at least 3 years, so why not? And that’s just engineers that are receiving their first big payout this past year.  The engineers hired in 2014 would also be getting sizable payouts now, and there will be more of those than 2013 hires, since hiring has been increasing year-over-year.

Jaime Engineer's 70 units are now worth about $80,000 (that’s like a 230% return!). That used to be a down payment on the median home in Seattle and you need about double that now. But the dots are starting to connect; they will have vested additional stock this year as well and given the price in 2014 was $350, the results should be a virtual doubling of their total vested stock value ($160k). Also, someone hired a year earlier could be benefiting from grants from 2012, 2013 and 2014.  There are potentially now thousands of residents in the same situation of looking for permanent homes, who all have above median incomes and sizable savings to put onto a down payment.

It’s no wonder that a reported 90% of listings in Seattle result in bidding above the asking price this year.  With about 25,000 homes sold in Seattle per year, this group of home buyers can bid on multiple listings covering a good chunk of them. Most of the time, going above asking price requires cash-on-hand and these stock payouts are a likely source of that.

The good news (or not-so-bad news) for non-Amazonians in Seattle (and wherever HQ2 lands) is that as Amazon continues to grow, the stock is likely to plateau or already has plateaued in price for the time being.   Even with major tax breaks likely coming to corporations, it’s hard to imagine another 230% return on investment in the next 3 years. Also, the employee growth is likely to plateau or slow in Seattle. These types of payouts generating wealth among a relatively large amount of people (rather than just among a few executives) in a small area are unlikely to continue from a single company.

All in all, I have no doubt that Amazon’s stock price growth combined with the massive employee expansion in the past 7 years has had a significant impact on rising home prices in Seattle this year.

EDIT: I’ve toned down my certainty on the ‘amazon stock price’ effect after looking at how the available home inventory in Seattle has fallen since 2016 about 20%. So constraining supply looks like another clear contributor. But interestingly, inflow of out-of-state car registrations in King County is decisively down YoY.  As residential inflow is declining,  I think the demand side argument above remains strong.

[brettzjacksonblog]

Ethereum (ETH) Decoupling, Project Has More Monthly Active Developers

Ethereum (ETH) up 5.3 percent

Monthly active developers in Ethereum high at 216

On average there are 216 monthly active developers working on improving Ethereum (ETH) better. That is bullish now that the aim is to transition from Proof-of-Work to a staking system in Serenity. In the long term, ETH is bullish. Meanwhile, prices must close above $190 in a breakout trade.

Ethereum Price Analysis

Fundamentals

The crypto space is vibrant and back to green. Even so, we should note that there is a degree of decoupling between Bitcoin, the market leader and altcoins, including Ethereum. Note that despite Bitcoin (BTC) surging, Ethereum (ETH) prices are not responding as per traders’ expectations. In the last day, ETH is down 0.8 percent, struggling to breach $170 and up a mere 5.3 percent from last week’s close.

All the same, it is the rate of development that is interesting, hinting of bulls. Ethereum (ETH) is a trigger of innovation thanks to their smart contracting capabilities. However, competitors are catching up. Regardless, the number of monthly active users surpasses those contributing to Bitcoin and Tron or EOS, projects that the Chinese CCID ranks higher and lauded for their lightning speeds.

Although many may attribute this to the release of Ethereum 2.0 TestNet for the Beacon blockchain by Prysmatic Labs, that has been the norm. Developers are flocking to the network despite the requirement of coding using Solidity and shunning others.

It may be the challenge, but if Ethereum is to be 3.0 creating another layer on top of the blockchain (web 2.0) and Internet (Web 1.0) as the network upgrades from the current “investment” state made possible by web 2.0, then there must be developers contributing to Ethereum repositories. That’s what is happening, and this is bullish for Ethereum (ETH) in the long term.

Candlestick Arrangement

Fundamentals are “very” bullish, and as Ethereum development pick momentum, it is likely that prices will follow suit. However, that is all dependent on whether ETH bulls will clear immediate resistances at $190, marking Apr-2019 highs. If not, then we expect the current consolidation to continue.

Presently, prices are consolidating within a $20 range inside May-6 high-low despite the reaction at the 78.6 percent Fibonacci retracement level off Apr-2-8 high low. Like in our ETH/USD trade plan, there is an opportunity for buyers to step up and load up on dips.

However, for risk-averse hodlers trading for value, a better signal will be to initiate longs once prices rally above $190 complete with above average volumes.

Technical Indicators

Accompanying this accumulation is an expansion of participation. With averages at 108k, volumes are up from Apr-25’s 99k meaning bulls are in control. Even so, that will only be true if there is a surge above $190 with a sharp increment in volumes exceeding 160k confirming buyers of Apr-2-3.

Chart courtesy of Trading View

The post Ethereum (ETH) Decoupling, Project Has More Monthly Active Developers appeared first on NewsBTC.

from CryptoCracken SMFeed http://bit.ly/2VWo1Nr via IFTTT

[superliveabetterlife-blog]

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