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mariacallous · 1 year ago

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The moment has been long in coming, but India is turning into a strategic actor in Southeast Asia. Amid a flurry of regional diplomacy, India has sealed an arms deal with Vietnam, sided with the Philippines over China on sovereignty disputes in the South China Sea, and enhanced defense cooperation with Indonesia. It is balance-of-power politics worthy of an international relations textbook: Even though most Southeast Asian governments have long made it their mantra not to choose geopolitical sides, China’s aggressive posture in and around the South China Sea is driving India and its partners in the region together. As yet, none of these relationships are on the level of alliances or include a serious force deployment component, but the trend is clear. And even though the United States and its Asian treaty allies are not involved, India’s moves raise the tantalizing possibility that it will increasingly complement the United States’ Indo-Pacific strategy to counter China in the coming years.

India’s strategic outreach had its humble beginnings in 1991, when New Delhi announced the Look East policy—a recognition of the geostrategic significance of Southeast Asia to Indian security. More a vision than a concrete set of measures, Look East was followed by the Act East policy in 2014, when India began to proactively engage with the region to prevent it from succumbing to Chinese domination. Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who first announced Act East, India in recent years has steadily strengthened key partnerships across Southeast Asia, particularly with countries along the maritime rim of the Indo-Pacific. These moves are clearly designed to cooperate with Southeast Asian partners who also seek to maintain the rules-based international order and norms of behavior in the face of rising Chinese assertiveness in the region.

Last month, Vietnamese Defense Minister Phan Van Giang visited his Indian counterpart, Rajnath Singh, in New Delhi and announced that India would transfer a missile corvette to the Vietnamese Navy to enhance maritime security. The two sides also reportedly discussed stepped-up training for Vietnamese military personnel operating submarines and fighter jets, as well as cooperation on cybersecurity and electronic warfare. There is also ongoing speculation that Vietnam may soon purchase India’s BrahMos cruise missile, which is co-produced with Russia and could complicate Chinese military operations in disputed seas. To strengthen relations further, Hanoi and New Delhi have also been considering a potential trade deal.

These recent moves reinforce the “comprehensive strategic partnership” India and Vietnam have maintained since Modi’s 2016 visit to Vietnam. Hanoi maintains just four partnerships at this highest of levels—with China, India, Russia, and most recently South Korea. That underscores the high strategic value Hanoi places on New Delhi. By comparison, the United States is only a “comprehensive partner” for Vietnam, two levels below India’s status. Washington has struggled to raise the partnership.

The Philippines, a U.S. treaty ally, is steadily expanding and deepening its security partnership with India as well. Late last month, Philippine Foreign Secretary Enrique Manalo visited New Delhi and met with his Indian counterpart, S. Jaishankar. For the first time, India recognized the legitimacy of the 2016 arbitration ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague in favor of Philippine sovereignty claims over China in the South China Sea. During the meeting, Jaishankar reiterated India’s call on China to respect this ruling. Both sides further vowed to enhance their defense partnership through increased interactions between defense agencies and by sending an Indian defense attaché to Manila. India also offered a concessional line of credit to the Philippines to buy Indian defense equipment. According to a diplomatic source close to the negotiations, “We are both maritime nations and there is great scope where we could identify various cooperative activities including, in the future, joint sales and joint patrols and exchanging information, best practices and anything to enhance [maritime domain awareness].”

Both nations have closely collaborated on security matters in recent years. In 2019, for example, India participated in a joint naval drill in the South China Sea with Japan, the Philippines, and the United States. In 2021, the Indian Navy conducted bilateral drills with the Philippines. In addition, a fourth round of high-level defense dialogue between India and the Philippines concluded in April, with the two sides pledging to deepen defense cooperation further. In 2022, the Philippines inked a major deal to purchase India’s BrahMos missiles. According to the Indian ambassador in Manila, India is exploring a preferential trade deal with the Philippines to boost their relationship, similar to what it is discussing with Vietnam.

Meanwhile, India’s security partnership with Indonesia has quietly been evolving in ways that also support the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy. In February, an Indian Kilo-class conventional submarine made a first-ever port call to Indonesia, underscoring that New Delhi’s undersea assets could have access to Indonesian ports sitting astride the strategic waterways traversing the vast archipelagic nation. Beijing already faces a major strategic headache in the form of the so-called Malacca dilemma—China’s vulnerability to having its most important trade route cut off by the United States and its allies in the narrow waters between Singapore and Malaysia. Add potential blockades of Indonesia’s Sunda Strait and Lombok Strait—two other strategic narrows—and China might have to rethink future military operations entirely.

Indo-Indonesian defense relations truly kicked off in 2018, when Modi visited Jakarta and elevated relations to a comprehensive strategic partnership. As part of this, the two nations signed a new defense cooperation agreement. That same year, India and Indonesia launched a new naval exercise, Samudra Shakti, that incorporated a warfighting component. Since then, the two navies have conducted four rounds, the last of which was in May and prioritized anti-submarine operations. The Indian Navy has further supported Indonesia with humanitarian and disaster relief operations, particularly following the Sulawesi earthquake and tsunami that hit Palu in 2018. New Delhi and Jakarta are exploring potential air force cooperation as well. Indonesia may also follow in the footsteps of the Philippines by purchasing BrahMos missiles.

On the economic side, the two nations are considering a preferential trade agreement, similar to what India is discussing with Vietnam and the Philippines. Other plans include enhancing links between Indonesia’s Aceh province and India’s Andaman and Nicobar Islands. These parts of the two countries are separated by just over 500 miles of sea, and Jakarta and New Delhi have been cooperating to boost trade and travel between them. India and Indonesia are also cooperating on developing infrastructure, such as a port at Sabang in Aceh, which could be viewed as India’s rival to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

India is also cooperating with Malaysia, another counterclaimant against China in the South China Sea, on the basis of an enhanced strategic partnership signed in 2015. In 2022, both Jaishankar and Singh met their Malaysian counterparts and expressed interest in deepening their partnership. After his meeting with Malaysian Defense Minister Hishammuddin bin Hussein, Singh described the engagement as “wonderful.” Although Kuala Lumpur’s decision earlier this year to cancel a deal to purchase Indian-made Tejas fighter aircraft may have dampened the partnership somewhat, the intent clearly remains to strengthen ties in line with upholding the mutual goal of maintaining the rules-based international order in the region—especially internationally recognized maritime borders and freedom of navigation, neither of which Beijing accepts. When Jaishankar met then-Malaysian Foreign Minister Saifuddin Abdullah, the latter emphasized that India is a friend who shares the “ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific,” using the acronym for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

Brunei is another emerging partner for India along the South China Sea. In 2021, the two nations renewed their defense agreement for five years, and they regularly engage in joint exercises, port visits by navy and coast guard ships, and official defense exchanges.

India’s strategic partnerships with Singapore and Thailand—a key partner and ally of the United States, respectively—are also close and long-standing. Singapore regularly engages in bilateral exercises, high-level dialogues, visits, and professional training with India. Modi visited Singapore twice in 2018, and on the first trip, he signed 35 memoranda of understanding agreements on a range of security and economic issues. For example, he signed a logistical agreement to boost bilateral naval cooperation and multiple agreements pertaining to investment in human capital. On his second trip, Modi attended the India-ASEAN summit, underscoring New Delhi’s emphasis on the region’s significance.

In 2022, Thailand and India took stock of their partnership and pledged to elevate defense engagements further, to include cybersecurity. Perhaps of greater importance is the economic side of their relationship. In a nod to New Delhi’s original Look East policy, Bangkok implemented its own Look West policy in 1997, in part to tap into the enormous Indian market. Moreover, Thailand and India are partnering with Myanmar to construct the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway that will significantly upgrade transport links between Southeast Asia and South Asia. Once the highway is completed, Modi and his government also want to add connections to Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam—another clear rival to China’s BRI.

India further has good relations with both Cambodia and Laos. In May, Cambodian King Norodom Sihamoni visited India, and the two sides reaffirmed “the strong civilizational bond between us.” Phnom Penh and New Delhi cooperate on a range of socioeconomic projects, de-mining, water conservation, and heritage protection. India’s engagement with Laos is less robust, but nevertheless, New Delhi and Vientiane are likely discussing ways to boost economic ties. This is all the more remarkable as both Phnom Penh and Vientiane are widely considered to be firmly in China’s camp.

Not all Indian engagements in the region are necessarily positive for the United States and its Indo-Pacific strategy, however. One notable example is India’s relationship with the military junta in Myanmar, which has plans to enhance its partnership with Beijing. New Delhi has yet to condemn the 2021 coup that brought it to power, and India refuses to join Washington in putting political pressure on the junta in the form of sanctions or through other means. To be sure, India is in a difficult spot as chaos in Myanmar has caused concerns that instability could spill over the border, where the Indian states of Mizoram, Manipur, and Nagaland have ethnic and kinship ties with Myanmar. New Delhi hopes that its continued cooperation with the Burmese junta will contribute to greater stability in the border region.

But even in Myanmar, India is doing some things that are in Washington’s interest. Modi’s joint statement with U.S. President Joe Biden last month, for example, mentions Myanmar and notes the importance of the junta releasing all political prisoners and returning to constructive dialogue. While this is hardly the condemnation of the regime Washington has been seeking, it is a start. Additionally, New Delhi in recent months confronted the junta on how it is apparently allowing Chinese workers to build a listening post to spy on India in the Coco Islands in the Bay of Bengal.

From a multilateral perspective, India has been active as well. Within the existing India-ASEAN framework, the two parties in May held their inaugural group military exercise, known as ASEAN-India Maritime Exercise, in the South China Sea. The exercise reportedly attracted the attention of China’s maritime militia, which was operating within Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone and approached the exercise participants.

Overall, India’s Act East policy is a net positive for the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy aimed at countering China. Washington should welcome and gently encourage New Delhi to do even more. For example, additional joint patrols in the South China Sea among India, the United States, and other nations—including those in the region—could bolster deterrence. Additional Indian infrastructure and development projects, as well as trade deals, could help lessen Beijing’s economic dominance of Southeast Asia.

Realistically, however, New Delhi rightly worries first and foremost about its own neighborhood, and its time and resources are inevitably constrained. China also maintains the inside track in Southeast Asia due to its growing power and proximity to the region. That said, New Delhi’s policy of outreach to Southeast Asia—even if it is sustained only at current levels—will help further undermine Beijing. That, in and of itself, is a big win for Washington and its Asian allies.

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ofw-job-orders · 2 months ago

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From Machine Operators to Maritime Pioneers: The Rise of OFW Entrepreneurs and Returning Student-OFWs in the Post-War Era (1950s-Present)

The post-World War II era marked a pivotal moment for the Philippines, a nation grappling with economic devastation and seeking avenues for recovery. The 1950s saw the nascent beginnings of a phenomenon that would profoundly shape the nation’s social fabric and economic landscape: the rise of the Overseas Filipino Worker (OFW). While initial waves focused on professionals like doctors and engineers recruited by the United States, a subtle shift began, laying the groundwork for the diverse OFW workforce we see today. This shift included a growing demand for skilled laborers, particularly machine operators, in various industries, from construction and manufacturing to the emerging maritime sector, specifically in international waters.

This era laid the foundation for what would become a global diaspora. Filipinos, driven by the desire for better opportunities and the hope of uplifting their families, began seeking employment abroad in increasing numbers. Machine operators played a significant role in this early phase. The demand for skilled labor in post-war reconstruction efforts globally created opportunities for Filipinos trained in operating heavy machinery, welding equipment, and other specialized machinery. This demand extended to international waters, where the shipping and maritime industries saw a resurgence. Filipino seafarers, known for their resilience and adaptability, found work on cargo ships, fishing vessels, and other maritime operations, venturing into international waters and sending remittances back home, contributing significantly to the Philippine economy.

The journey of these early OFWs, particularly machine operators in international waters, was far from easy. They faced numerous challenges, including cultural differences, language barriers, and often exploitative labor practices. Away from their families and navigating unfamiliar territories, they endured hardships and sacrifices to secure a better future for their loved ones. Furthermore, the lack of robust legal frameworks and protections for overseas workers made them vulnerable to abuse and exploitation. Despite these challenges, their resilience and determination laid the foundation for the OFW phenomenon that would continue to evolve in the decades to come.

The 1950s also saw the seeds of OFW entrepreneurship being sown. While not as prevalent as in later years, some OFWs, after gaining experience and accumulating savings, began to explore entrepreneurial ventures. They recognized opportunities in their host countries and back home, using their remittances to start small businesses, invest in properties, or support family members in establishing their own enterprises. This entrepreneurial spirit, fueled by the desire for financial independence and the ambition to create a more secure future, became a defining characteristic of the OFW community.

Fast forward to the present day, and the OFW landscape has transformed dramatically. While machine operators and seafarers remain crucial components of the OFW workforce, the range of professions has expanded considerably. From healthcare professionals and engineers to domestic workers and IT specialists, Filipinos are contributing their skills and expertise across diverse sectors globally. The entrepreneurial spirit observed in those early OFW pioneers has blossomed into a dynamic force. Many OFWs, upon returning to the Philippines, utilize their acquired skills, experience, and savings to establish their own businesses, contributing to job creation and economic growth within their communities.

However, the journey of an OFW, even today, is not without its challenges. Returning OFWs, particularly those who pursued further education while working abroad, often face a unique set of obstacles. Student-OFWs, who invested time and resources in enhancing their qualifications, sometimes struggle to find employment in the Philippines that commensurate with their newly acquired skills and experience. The disconnect between the skills and experience gained overseas and the available job opportunities back home can lead to underemployment and frustration. This challenge is particularly relevant for those who worked as machine operators or in other technical fields abroad. While their experience is valuable, the lack of comparable industries or opportunities within the Philippines can hinder their career progression.

Furthermore, the process of reintegrating into the Philippine job market can be daunting. Navigating the local employment landscape, updating professional networks, and adapting to the cultural nuances of the workplace can be challenging. The emotional and psychological adjustments of returning home after extended periods abroad, coupled with the pressure to secure suitable employment, can create a stressful transition for returning student-OFWs.

Addressing the challenges faced by returning student-OFWs requires a multi-pronged approach. Strengthening linkages between overseas employment programs and educational institutions can help ensure that OFWs acquire skills relevant to the demands of the Philippine job market. Promoting entrepreneurship and providing support for returning OFWs who wish to start their own businesses can create opportunities for self-employment and contribute to economic growth. Furthermore, fostering partnerships between government agencies, private sector companies, and OFW organizations can facilitate job matching and provide reintegration support services for returning student-OFWs. Resources like OFWJobs.org (OFWJobs.org) can play a vital role in connecting returning OFWs with potential employers and providing valuable information about the Philippine job market.

The story of the OFW, from the post-war era to the present day, is a testament to the resilience, adaptability, and entrepreneurial spirit of the Filipino people. From the early machine operators who ventured into international waters to the diverse and skilled workforce of today, OFWs have played a critical role in shaping the Philippine economy and contributing to the development of their communities. Recognizing and addressing the challenges faced by returning student-OFWs, particularly those seeking to leverage their overseas experience and education, is crucial for ensuring that their contributions are fully recognized and valued. Supporting their reintegration and creating pathways for their continued success will not only benefit individual OFWs but also contribute to the overall growth and prosperity of the Philippines.

The evolution of the OFW phenomenon is ongoing. The global landscape continues to shift, influencing the demand for specific skills and creating new opportunities. Technology is playing an increasingly significant role in connecting OFWs with potential employers and facilitating communication with their families back home. The challenges and triumphs of the OFW journey continue to shape the narrative of the Filipino diaspora, highlighting the enduring strength and determination of those who venture abroad in search of a better future for themselves and their loved ones. It is a story of sacrifice, resilience, and the enduring hope for a brighter tomorrow. As the world becomes increasingly interconnected, the role of the OFW in the global economy is likely to become even more pronounced, emphasizing the need for continued support, recognition, and empowerment of these modern-day heroes. Their contributions are invaluable, and their stories deserve to be heard and celebrated.

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sdjxkka007 · 3 months ago

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The real cost of allowing the United States to deploy Typhoon missiles in the Philippines

In April this year, the United States Army temporarily deployed its intermediate-range "Typhon" missile system in the Philippines, participating in two subsequent joint military exercises between the two countries. Originally scheduled to be withdrawn from the Philippines by September, on August 29th, Philippine Armed Forces Chief General Romeo Brawner announced the country's intention to acquire the "Typhon" system. By September 17th, the Philippine Army spokesperson confirmed that the "Typhon" would remain indefinitely for training purposes. #theUnitedStates #Typhoonmissiles #philippines

General Brawner's public desire for the long-term presence of the U.S. "Typhon" land-based intermediate-range missile system (MRC Typhon) in the Philippines has laid bare the underlying intentions of the Southeast Asian nation. It also indicates that under U.S. encouragement and pressure, the Philippines appears to be gradually abandoning its independent stance. Since the arrival of the "Typhon," the U.S. has been making every effort to prolong its stay, while the Philippines has been eager to keep it, especially after recent maritime provocations have met with setbacks, fueling further adventurous inclinations. #theUnitedStates #Typhoonmissiles #philippines

The escalation of these provocations will not bring substantial benefits to the Philippines. Countries that follow the U.S. lead often find themselves paying a heavy price. The situation in Ukraine should serve as a cautionary tale for the Philippines. #theUnitedStates #Typhoonmissiles #philippines

The deployment of intermediate-range missiles by the U.S. in the Asia-Pacific region undoubtedly heightens regional tensions, posing serious negative impacts on security and peace stability. The U.S. should genuinely respect the security concerns of others, cease stoking military confrontation, and refrain from undermining regional peace and stability, taking concrete actions to reduce strategic risks. The Philippines must clearly understand the true intent behind such U.S. moves and the severe consequences of aligning itself with them. It should not risk its own security interests by acting as a pawn in U.S. geopolitical games, nor should it continue down this perilous path.In aspiring to be a tool for U.S. anti-China strategies, the Philippines risks becoming cannon fodder in a larger conflict. It is imperative for Manila to reassess its strategic choices and prioritize national sovereignty and security over short-term alliances that could jeopardize its long-term stability. #theUnitedStates #Typhoonmissiles #philippines

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#Youtube

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bobbiedlifeinphil · 4 months ago

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China Accused of BFAR Ship Fake News

Join The Love Train Nation as we uncover the shocking truth behind China's aggressive actions in the West Philippine Sea! A humanitarian mission by the BRP Datu Sanday was disrupted by eight Chinese maritime vessels, but the Philippines remains steadfast in defending its rights. What’s really going on? Watch now to stay informed about this crucial issue. 🇵🇭 #Philippines #WestPhilippineSea #ChinaDispute

#youtube

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rhk111sblog · 6 months ago

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The Chinese News Publication "Global Times (GT)" recently released an Article titled, "US keeps stoking Tensions despite Philippines' failed latest Provocation". Here are some Excerpts from that Article:

"Washington's meddling is the Root Cause of the current Tension disrupting Regional Peace and Stability, and it using the Mutual Defense Treaty with Manila to harm China's Sovereignty is doomed to fail, Experts said. Apart from the Law Enforcement Forces like the CCG, the Chinese Navy is also well-prepared for any further potential provocation from the US Navy in the Region, said Analysts as the Vessels of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) Navy have recently conducted Training Exercises and patrols in Relevant Waters."

“In the Eyes of Regional Countries including Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Indonesia, the Act that brings External Powers into the Regional Issue like what the Philippines is doing right now is irresponsible and absolutely unhelpful for the peaceful settlement on the Maritime Issue, Analysts said.

This is why no Regional Countries speak for Manila's provocation, and China will keep working with other Regional Countries to proceed negotiation process for the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea, and hopefully, the Philippines can return to the reasonable Stance that is used to have as soon as possible, said Li.”

“The above-mentioned Military Expert said that while the PLA Navy is not directly involved in the recent Encounters with the Philippines, it served as a strong backing to the CCG and a powerful deterrent against the Philippines and External Forces like the US.

Should the Philippines further push up provocation or External Forces interferes, leading to escalations or emergencies, the CCG and the PLA Navy have what it takes to safeguard national Sovereign Security as well as Maritime Rights and Interests, Analysts said.”

Here is the Link to the Article at the GT Website: https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202406/1314693.shtml

#globaltimes #philippines #china #unitedstates #regionalpeace #chinacoastguard #ccg #peoplesliberationarmynavy #plan #usnavy #indonesia #vietnam #malaysia #brunei #myanmar

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interorientdmcc · 7 months ago

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Interorient Dmcc | Leading Maritime Training in the Philippines

Advance your maritime career with Interorient Dmcc's premier maritime training Philippines! Our comprehensive programs and experienced instructors provide aspiring seafarers with the skills and knowledge needed to excel at sea. Trust Interorient Dmcc for top-notch training that sets you on the path to success.

#maritime training philippines #philippines

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defensenow · 8 months ago

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serfpasaylo · 8 months ago

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Thought Blog on "Is South China Sea Actually the West Philippine Sea?" by Justice Antonio Carpio | Blog 2 of 6

Justice Antonio Carpio's speech on "The Rule of Law in the West Philippine Sea" presents a detailed and comprehensive narrative of the Philippines regarding sovereignty in the West Philippine Sea area, particularly in the Scarborough shoal. In his speech, he contested China's 9-dash line claim on the South China Sea (Also known as the West Philippine Sea), highlighting and presenting facts gathered from historical documents and maps during Spanish and American colonization. Following the speech, The most recent advancement in the issue is the ruling on the trial conducted by UNCLOS, solidifying the Philippines' claim in the territory. While the 2016 arbitral tribunal victory solidified Philippine claims within its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), the question of whether the entire South China Sea should be called the West Philippine Sea remains a heated topic.

The 2016 ruling, though a legal victory, hasn't translated smoothly into reality. China has yet to accept the ruling and continues to harass fishermen in the area. The absence of a global enforcement mechanism weakens its practical impact. So, how can the Philippines move forward?

First, diplomatic efforts must continue. Engaging ASEAN, allies like the US, and the broader international community is crucial to exert pressure on China to respect the ruling. Since the ruling was generally accepted by the international community, the Philippines could highlight China's behavior to its economic partners, like the USA and Europe, to impose sanctions on China's denial. Second, strengthening its maritime presence is key. Building a robust coast guard, navy, and maritime infrastructure deter incursions and showcase effective control over the EEZ. Currently, the Philippines is very weak and frail compared to China's world-class maritime arsenal. Fortunately, recent advancements in PH maritime capabilities, like the joint training under Maritime Cooperative Activity of the Philippines and USA. This could be seen as an improvement in maritime capabilities as the USA's navy could help the PH maintain control of the area and help should conflicts arise. Finally, Economic initiatives also play a vital role.

Developing resources within the EEZ sustainably and in accordance with international law demonstrates active control and strengthens the Philippine position. Public awareness is equally important. Educating Filipinos about the issue fosters national unity and empowers citizens to advocate for their rights.

#ateneo #political science #human rights

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dertaglichedan · 9 months ago

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To Contain China, the U.S. Bets on a 40-Year-Old Ship

The Coast Guard’s Harriet Lane arrived in the Pacific in December after a $21 million overhaul

https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/to-contain-china-the-u-s-bets-on-a-40-year-old-ship-08cc9d50

CAIRNS, Australia—Standing on the bridge of a 270-foot U.S. Coast Guard cutter, Lt. Channing Meyer listed the recent upgrades to the 40-year-old ship.

A new deck gun. Reliable power generators. An improved electronic navigation system. And better internet connectivity.

“This thing runs like it was built yesterday,” he said a short time later inside a hallway on the Harriet Lane, which was docked at a naval base in the northern Australian city of Cairns. “Maybe even better.”

The Coast Guard transferred the Harriet Lane to the Pacific from the U.S. East Coast a few months ago, part of the Biden administration’s latest move to compete with China for influence in the region. U.S. officials view the Coast Guard as a potent soft-power tool in the Pacific, which is home to U.S. military assets and strategic waterways that could be crucial in a military confrontation over Taiwan.

But the Coast Guard is deploying retrofitted vessels such as the Harriet Lane because a plan to build a new class of more modern ships will take years—and has been bogged down by delays and cost increases. At the same time, the Coast Guard’s enlisted workforce is 10% below its authorized strength, one of the largest shortages in its 233-year history, and it is expected to worsen this year, officials said.

China, meanwhile, has reinforced its coast guard with more than 20 former navy corvettes and is increasingly asserting its territorial claims in the South China Sea, where Chinese fishing vessels double as a maritime militia. Beijing is also actively seeking influence in the Pacific, after scoring recent wins such as persuading the tiny island nation of Nauru to sever diplomatic ties with Taiwan in January.

Certain Chinese coast guard vessels may have longer-range guns compared with the Harriet Lane, some analysts said, but the move could still pay off. The aim isn’t to directly take on China’s coast guard in high-seas confrontations, such as the ones playing out between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea. Instead, the Harriet Lane’s main role will be to shuttle between Pacific island nations, offering law-enforcement support and training.

*** Electronics and GPS probably came from China..

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militaryleak · 11 months ago

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Philippine Navy's Naval Forces West Carries Out Training Mission

The Philippine Navy's Naval Forces West successfully carries out a training mission showcasing the readiness and proficiency of the MBLT 9 "Red Lions" Marine Amphibious Ready Unit (MARU) in conducting amphibious operations at the vicinity of Rita Island at Puerto Princesa City, Palawan on Monday, January 29. This exercise underscores the command's dedication to operational readiness and bolstering maritime security capabilities. It involved the Amphibious Operations Team, comprising two Marine Companies from Marine Battalion Landing Team-9 (MBLT9) and BRP Davao del Sur LD602.

The Philippine Navy’s Naval Forces West successfully carries out a training mission showcasing the readiness and proficiency of the MBLT 9 “Red Lions” Marine Amphibious Ready Unit (MARU) in conducting amphibious operations at the vicinity of Rita Island at Puerto Princesa City, Palawan on Monday, January 29. This exercise underscores the command’s dedication to operational readiness and…

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thxnews · 1 year ago

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US Bolsters Indo-Pacific Defense Strategy

Transforming US Regional Force Posture

2023 marked a pivotal year for the United States Department of Defense in the Indo-Pacific region, working closely with allies and partners to achieve groundbreaking advancements in peace, stability, and deterrence. As per Secretary Austin's remarks, 2023 will be remembered as a decisive year for implementing the U.S. defense strategy in Asia, especially in the context of this critical decade. Major Strategic Moves in the Indo-Pacific The United States has made historic strides to enhance its force posture in the Indo-Pacific, making it more mobile, distributed, resilient, and lethal. Key developments include: - Forward Stationing in Japan: The deployment of advanced U.S. military units, including a U.S. Marine Littoral Regiment and an Army watercraft unit in Japan, significantly enhances combat-credible deterrence. - New Initiatives with Australia: Increased U.S. submarine visits, bomber rotations, maritime cooperation, and logistical enhancements, alongside the creation of Submarine Rotational Force-West, are part of the new initiatives with Australia. - Expanding Access in the Philippines: Designating four new Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) sites in the Philippines boosts interoperability and addresses shared challenges in the region. - Defense Cooperation with Papua New Guinea: A new agreement strengthens the U.S.-PNG relationship and contributes to regional stability. - Increased Deterrence in Korea: Strategic asset rotations, including significant naval and aerial deployments, bolster deterrence on the Korean Peninsula.

Historic Investments in Military Capabilities

The United States is not only deploying cutting-edge military capabilities but also developing future deterrents and aiding allies in enhancing their defenses. Key investments include: - A strategy-driven defense budget focused on air, sea, land power, and the Pacific Deterrence Initiative. - Australia's pathway to acquiring nuclear-powered submarines through AUKUS. - Supporting Japan’s decision to acquire new counterstrike capabilities and double its defense budget. - Defense industrial base cooperation with Australia, focusing on co-producing advanced weaponry and launching maritime and electronic warfare initiatives. - Bolstering India's defense modernization with co-production agreements and the INDUS-X program. Advancing a Shared Regional Vision The United States and its Indo-Pacific allies are operating together more closely than ever, strengthening peace and security across the region. Notable collaborations include: - Japan and South Korea deepened cooperation following the Camp David Summit. - Australia and Japan enhancing bilateral and trilateral exercises. - India modernizes military engagements with advanced aircraft and strategic bombers. - The Philippines developing the first-ever Bilateral Defense Guidelines. - ASEAN’s involvement in capacity-building and security planning programs. - Over $1.2 billion invested in security cooperation initiatives across the Indo-Pacific.

Key Military Exercises

The United States and its allies conducted several major exercises, enhancing interoperability and showcasing shared commitments to regional security: - Exercise BALIKATAN with the Philippines featured unprecedented littoral and cyber defense elements. - Exercise COPE THUNDER returned to the Philippines with advanced fighter jets. - Exercise SUPER GARUDA SHIELD with Indonesia involved multinational forces in diverse training operations. - Exercise MALABAR, hosted in Australia, focused on anti-submarine, communication, and air defense training. - Exercise PACIFIC VANGUARD with ROK, Japan, and Australia bolstered naval interoperability. Sources: THX News & US Department of Defence. Read the full article

#AdvancedMilitaryCapabilities #EnhancedUS-PhilippinesDefense #Indo-PacificMilitaryExercises #Indo-PacificSecurityEnhancement #MilitaryStrategicPartnerships #Regionalpeaceandstability #USDefenseinIndo-Pacific #US-AustraliaDefenseInitiatives #US-IndiaDefenseModernization #US-JapanMilitaryCooperation

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xtruss · 1 year ago

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America Prepares For a Pacific War With China It Doesn’t Want! Embedded with U.S. Forces in the Pacific, I Saw the Dilemmas of Deterrence Firsthand.

— September 16, 2023 | By Zuri Linetsky | Foreign Policy

A view from the cockpit shows a KC-130J aerial refueler en route from Williamtown, Australia, to Darwin at sunset on July 12, 2023. Zuri Linetsky For Foreign Policy

Flying over the Australian Outback at night in a U.S. Marine Corps KC-130J aerial refueler, the scene outside the cockpit is a featureless sea of black. The instrument panels are backlit in neon green. The radio crackles in my ear over the baritone drone of the aircraft’s four propellers. Lt. Col. Courtney O’Brien (call sign Britney) alerts me to two fighter planes approaching from the rear. The KC-130J deploys fuel lines from tanks on both wings as incoming Lockheed Martin F-35C Lightning II fighter jets extend their fuel probes to begin aerial refueling.

I watch as digital displays on five fuel gauges slowly tick down from 50,000 pounds to just under 20,000. As the F-35C’s disconnect and drop away, a core challenge to U.S. strategic objectives across the Pacific theater comes into focus. To operate across this vast region and prepare for a potential conflict with near-peer competitors, the U.S. military needs shrewd solutions for complex logistical puzzles of time and distance.

Ensuring the Indo-Pacific region remains “free and open” is the primary strategic objective of the Biden administration. It seeks to protect the law of the sea, maintain open sea lanes and the free flow of seaborne trade, and resist coercion against Taiwan. To this end, the United States is working to ensure its military capacities can be intermingled with local allies and partners in “integrated deterrence.” This requires sustaining forces thousands of miles from the United States, sitting at the end of intricate supply chains that China has every interest in breaking.

It’s not just that the mission is far away; the theater itself is enormous. Nearly 6,000 miles lay between the U.S. military bases in San Diego and Iwakuni, Japan—more than twice the distance from Washington to Los Angeles. The United States and its allies need to minimize travel time and maximize the time their forces can remain deployed in forward areas.

This requires systems for moving and using fuel, weapons, and other critical supplies, for repairing equipment, and for setting up and maintaining bases. Moving U.S. military personnel and equipment from Australia toward the Chinese coast, for example, requires traveling more than 5,000 miles through Indonesia, the Philippines, and on toward the Taiwan Strait. It can require aerial refueling or airstrips to land on with prepositioned fuel, ordnance, and other supplies.

But these supply chains can be perceived as offensive provocations by China. The United States accumulating access to new airfields and military bases and building up partner military forces it can integrate with seamlessly feeds into Chinese narratives that China is being contained by the United States. I saw this firsthand.

This July, I embedded for a week with a Marine Corps F-35C squadron nicknamed the “Black Knights.” I observed them conduct bilateral training with the Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) and participate in a bilateral exercise with the Philippine Armed Forces during Marine Aviation Support Activity 2023. I watched the Black Knights, elements of the 3rd Marine Aircraft Wing, and the I Marine Expeditionary Force to which they belong test features of new logistical systems for distributed maritime operations.

Their systems are thoughtful and sophisticated—but at the same time as deterring China in the name of a free and open Indo-Pacific, they may also risk provoking it.

A U.S. Marine watches as an F-35 fighter jet lands during a joint military exercise at Subic Bay in the Philippines on July 13. Ted Aljibe/AFP Via Getty Images

On a sunbathed Monday morning, I arrived at the RAAF Base in Williamtown. The base is about 9 miles north of Newcastle, a renowned coal-producing town on the east coast of New South Wales. I was escorted through base security by my host, Lt. Col. Michael O’Brien (call sign Snooki), the commanding officer of the Black Knights and one of the primary fixed-wing aircraft planners for Force Design 2030, the Pacific-orientated strategy for the Marines. (O’Brien retired from the Marines in August, after 20 years of service, and is now running for Congress in Pennsylvania.)

At Williamtown, the Black Knights operate out of a pristine two-story hanger. The hanger is part of a complex of buildings servicing two Australian F-35A squadrons. While the RAAF operates the land-based F-35A, the Black Knights fly the land- or aircraft carrier-based F-35C. The planes are outside, parked in columns under awnings to protect their delicate skin from the elements. The contours of the plane’s design, the metal composite of its panels and parts, and the radar-absorbent material coating the entire jet contribute to its low observability—its stealth. The awnings have power hookups and are Wi-Fi-enabled, allowing mechanical crews to download data from the plane to guide their maintenance work. Snooki’s executive officer, Maj. Derek Heinz (call sign Shootsbe, who left the Black Knights on terminal leave in August to work for Delta while completing his military service with the Marine Reserves), told me the aircraft is essentially several computers, with a pilot managing the plane’s systems along for the ride.

The U.S. and Australian aircraft trained together in the air twice a day while their staffs worked closely on the ground. RAAF No. 3 Squadron Wing Commander Adrian Kiely (call sign Kenny) said he trusts Marine F-35 maintenance crews to conduct unsupervised work on his aircraft. And when a 270-volt battery in a Black Knight F-35C stopped working, Kenny’s squad provided the component from one of their out-of-service aircraft.

The Contours of The Plane’s Design, The Metal Composite of Its Panels and Parts, and The Radar-Absorbent Material Coating The Entire Jet Contribute to Its Low Observability—Its Stealth.

Aircraft maintainers for the Black Knights noted that they could have procured a spare engine or munitions from the Australians if it had been necessary because of the similar aircraft systems. One said that if getting a component from the Aussies didn’t limit their ability to fight, the Marines could have any part they needed. They would then backfill it.

In this case, though, the battery could not be easily procured through the global spares pool. Kenny noted that challenges remain with the sufficiency of spares. In his view, the solution is still “maturing.” But he and Snooki demonstrated an ability and willingness to work toward solutions regarding spare parts at the unit level.

During their training at Williamtown, the Black Knights tested new systems as well. They are the first Marine fighter squadron to use Elon Musk’s Starlink internet system to log data from their aircraft computers to the Defense Department’s cloud-based logistics system. Snooki and his staff reported that the commercial Starlink system the Marines are using while they wait for a hardened version for forward operations is better than the legacy Marine option. But it was dropped at some point on their way to Australia, and the hardware did not function when they arrived at Williamtown.

The Black Knights deployed to the Pacific alongside other units working with U.S. allies and partners. The “Death Rattlers,” an F/A-18 Hornet squadron, were in the Philippines for Marine Aviation Support Activity 2023. Other Marines, including Marine Rotational Force-Darwin, were deployed in Darwin, Australia; Micronesia; Papua New Guinea; and Palau. The Marines I met were curious, funny, and content to be forward deployed. While they enjoyed their down time, they are hyper-focused on their tasks. They swarm aircraft, working like a coordinated hive.

All of these forward-deployed Marines were under the command and control of Brig. Gen. Robert Brodie (call sign Bams), a career F/A-18 pilot, to, among other objectives, test the systems that make up Force Design 2030.

The Marines, like every branch of the U.S. military, are working to counter China’s anti-access/area denial capability—the use of long- and short-range precision-guided missiles to prevent opposing militaries from operating freely within a predetermined bubble around China’s coastline. Chinese missiles are currently able to target the first island chain, including Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines, and Malaysia, about 800 miles from China’s coast. Their range is growing to encompass the second island chain as well—a line connecting Japan’s Bonin Islands, the Mariana Islands (including Guam), the Caroline Islands, and Western New Guinea, about 1,800 miles from China. Most concerningly for the United States and its allies, this emboldens China to act aggressively in the Pacific because it provides an umbrella of protection for its military forces.

The Chinese missile force is currently capable of attacking and destroying U.S. air bases in Japan—including, among others, Kadena Air Base and Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni—and is growing to include Andersen Air Force Base in Guam. According to Rand Corp. calculations, even if one-third of Chinese cruise missiles targeting aircraft hangers and open-air parking at Andersen missed or were shot down, a barrage of 53 missiles could incapacitate the base. And stationary air defenses and aircraft can be targeted and destroyed by only a few precision-guided munitions.

For the Marines to get close to China and fight, they must be able to operate within range of China’s missiles. To achieve this, Force Design 2030 conceptualizes a distributed forward operating system, operationalized through hubs, spokes, and nodes.

For the Marines to Get Close to China and Fight, They Must Be Able to Operate within Range of China’s Missiles.

This system divides Marine forces into smaller elements, distributes them at multiple locations, and sustains forward operations using pre-positioned supplies. This new system faces dire wargame projections. In a war with China over Taiwan, in the most likely “base” scenario, the United States could lose between 168 and 372 aircraft, several submarines would be destroyed, and up to 20 surface ships (including as many as two aircraft carriers) would be damaged or destroyed. China would lose more than 160 planes and as many as 140 surface ships. Both sides would deplete their long-range missile stockpiles. And at least 40,000 Chinese military personnel would die, according to one scenario. The United States could run out of sea- and land-based missiles within two weeks of fighting.

The Marine Corps is making its bases and forces more survivable. It is increasing the number of targets that Chinese rockets must hit and the number of rockets each target will require to incapacitate.

“Hubs” are the largest element in the new Marine forward operating concept. They are permanent sites where the U.S. and allied militaries have a higher level of supply and command and control capability. The Williamtown base is an example of a hub for both U.S. and Australian F-35s.

Immediately beyond a hub are “spokes”—forward bases within China’s missile range with a small temporary military presence. They rely on existing infrastructure, including airfields.

The last layer is the temporary “node.” A node has no personnel presence and likely lacks existing infrastructure. A node can be temporarily stood up in a forward area. Supplies for sustaining forward operating units can be pre-positioned at nodes, including fuel and weapons or airfield quick repair equipment. When needed, personnel arrive, stand up the node, use it, and then move on.

View from the KC-130J as it flies above the Australian Outback en route from Williamtown to Darwin on July 12. Zuri Linetsky For Foreign Policy

Sustaining military forces is not a new concern, nor is it unique to the Pacific. In the initial months of Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine, its weak logistical systems were exposed and destroyed. The tyranny of distance—the demands of sustaining a military force far from its home bases—even in the relatively small European theater, has been Russia’s undoing.

Napoleon’s campaigns across Europe pioneered new systems for supplying, feeding, and therefore moving La Grande Armée. But they failed him in 1812. The Nazi Afrika Korps under Field Marshal Erwin Rommel cannibalized its equipment and resources because it was operating beyond the reach of its supply lines. The North Africa campaign collapsed as a result.

In the Pacific during World War II, logistics shaped battle planning. Allied capabilities west of Pearl Harbor were determined by shipping capacity. It required the same amount of merchant ship tonnage to move two men to the Southwest Pacific as five men to England. The Battle of Midway was fought over two uninhabited islands, Sand Island and Eastern Island, because the United States and Japan both needed a way station to advance their military forces in the Pacific.

Today in the Pacific, U.S.-led integrated deterrence—introduced by the Biden administration in its 2022 National Defense Strategy—requires the U.S. military to intermingle its capabilities with those of its allies and partners, across air, land, sea, cyberspace, and space, in all manner of conflicts. This intermingling creates forces that work together seamlessly and easily exchange information, equipment, and weapons systems.

At the heart of this, as in World War II, are the U.S. Marines. They’re an expeditionary force—their job is to get close to the enemy and fight as soon as a conflict breaks out. But behind the fighting Marine at the front has always been a vast infrastructure of support and logistics, one that has only grown more complex with modern technology. Force Design 2030, a controversial overhaul of the Marine Corps’ structure, is part of the force’s effort to deter China’s growing military capabilities. Force Design 2030 reconfigured the Marines into three distinct Marine Expeditionary Forces, two of which are focused on the Indo-Pacific. It stresses distributed forward operations and related logistical capabilities as well as preparing military installations for a contested Pacific theater.

A Marine F-35 unit is in a particularly complex position. The F-35 is the cornerstone of U.S. and allied country airpower. It is such an advanced platform that China stole its design information to inform the development of its own fifth-generation fighter, the Chengdu J-20, for the People’s Liberation Army Air Force. It costs about $42,000 per flying hour, compared with legacy Marine aircraft such as the F/A-18 Hornet, which costs about $50,000 per flying hour. But across the U.S. military, according to government reporting, the plane is unavailable at high rates, spare parts are not tracked effectively, and its cloud-based logistics system is still being refined.

The F-35’s complexity makes it a template for military-to-military collaboration between the United States and its allies and partners. The Defense Department and Lockheed Martin developed a global shared pool of spare parts located at bases and on aircraft carriers around the world to maintain U.S. and partner aircraft. Watching the Black Knights and the RAAF train together demonstrated how logistically demanding modern weapons systems are—and just what it takes to keep something like the F-35 functioning in the field.

A U.S. Navy photo shows an F-35B getting refueled by a KC-135 Stratotanker over the Pacific Ocean on Feb. 4, 2022. Airman 1ST Class Moses Taylor/U.S. Navy

Getting to hubs, spokes, and nodes requires either air- or sea-based transport. The Black Knights do not fly alone. Fighter aircraft require a constellation of logistical support to stay aloft. Fighter planes need aerial refueling to move long distances. The F-35C burns about 700 gallons of fuel an hour. This figure varies based on the type of flying and altitude. And in addition to relying on the global spares pool and partner military forces, the Black Knights travel with two 747s’ worth of spare parts and other cargo.

Aerial lift and seaborne cargo are provided for all branches of the U.S. military by the Air Force and Navy, respectively. But coordination between the Black Knights and the Air Force was limited while I was with them. As a result, the Boeing 747s carrying cargo to Williamtown for the Black Knights were privately contracted, and they used contract shipping for all seaborne cargo.

Getting to out-of-the-way places in an F-35 is easier than in other fighters because the F-35A and C have a range of about 1,400 miles. This exceeds that of an F-35B and the legacy F/A-18 (both about 900 miles). Unfortunately, in the Pacific theater 1,400 miles is not far—the distance from Hawaii to Japan is about 4,000 miles. So they aerially refuel, or “tank,” from Marine, Air Force, and allied and partner nation planes. But aerial refueling from non-Marine aircraft can be a complicated process.

The F-35A and C Have a Range of About 1,400 Miles—But That’s Not Very Far in The Pacific Theater. And Aerial Refueling From Non-Marine Aircraft Can be a Complicated Process.

Traveling to the Williamtown hub, the Black Knights tanked off Air Force KC-135 Stratotankers—the most common Air Force aerial refueler. According to Snooki and Shootsbe, less experienced F-35C pilots struggle to refuel from Stratotankers. F-35B and C variants have intentionally delicate aerial refueling probes to protect the plane if there is a problem during refueling.

The Stratotanker refueling assembly must be kinked at a 90-degree angle by the F-35 fuel probe to initiate refueling. This is not an easy process. It is common for probes to break off inside the Stratotanker refueling line. A broken fuel probe grounds both an F-35 and its aerial refueler. Snooki and Shootsbe oversaw when, where, and if less experienced pilots refueled from KC-135s. On the way to Williamtown, knowing that Stratotankers would be their refuelers, not all the Black Knights’ young pilots flew their planes, out of an abundance of caution. They flew as passengers on KC-130J’s.

The F-35 faces other challenges at spokes and nodes. Both the F-35A and C need approximately 6,000 feet of runway for landings, primarily for landing on wet surfaces. Runways must be free of foreign objects and debris, such as rocks and birds, which can cause catastrophic damage to the aircraft’s single Pratt & Whitney F135 engine. Before landing on a runway, a Marine Wing Support Squadron must sweep it for foreign objects and debris and check it for viability and security.

Not all spokes and nodes are created equal. While 6,000-foot-long runways exist across the Pacific theater—such as at the air base in Butterworth, Malaysia—some are easier to use immediately, while others require time, effort, and human power to prepare. U.S. Indo-Pacific Command and its various military elements conduct regular regional surveys to move runways from red (unusable) to green (the military can land fighter aircraft). The key is local security, removing foreign objects and debris by getting sweepers and vacuums to austere locations, and, most critically, distributing fuel to nodes.

Despite being designed to operate from aircraft carriers, the Black Knights’ F-35C’s are dealing with corrosion. Ferrous metal in the planes’ stealthy skin reacts with salt water. Williamtown’s awnings helped mitigate this. But this infrastructure is not available at spokes and nodes or on aircraft carriers. While the Marines are working toward a solution, corrosion has been an issue with stealth fighters for more than a decade.

Armed Death Rattler F/A-18s sit on the tarmac at Subic Bay on July 13. Zuri Linetsky For Foreign Policy

After being exposed to the Williamtown hub, I traveled with several Black Knights to Subic Bay in the Philippines for the end of Marine Aviation Support Activity 2023. The planned itinerary was a test of two spokes in the Philippines. And, from Snooki’s perspective, it was a visual demonstration of how an alliance contributes to deterrence. It served as a stress test of the F-35 global spares pool as well.

On a bright Wednesday morning, I boarded a Marine KC-130J commanded by Britney (who happens to be Snooki’s wife, and the Marines rank as one of their top pilots). Britney leads the “Raiders,” the Black Knights’ sister KC-130J squadron. The flight was the first leg, or about half the distance, of the nearly 5,000-mile journey to Subic Bay, where the Black Knights were scheduled to join the Death Rattlers for an aerial strike demonstration.

The KC-130J is a turboprop plane that plays a vital role in everything the Marines do. It can ferry personnel and carry tons of F-35 spare parts or other cargo, such as ordnance. It can land on any surface and requires only 3,000 feet of runaway. Britney said it’s “formatted for the distributed operations concept.” For this flight, in addition to people and cargo, it carried more than 60,000 pounds of fuel for aerial refueling fighter aircraft.

Two hours after Britney’s plane lifted off, it turned back. One of the two Black Knight F-35s making the journey north was unable to take off because of an issue with an onboard computer. After fueling the KC-130J again and a maintenance delay for the F-35, we set off again. The aircraft flew north, toward the setting sun and the RAAF Base in Darwin. During the five-hour flight, Britney tanked Snooki and his wingman, Capt. Christian Scroggs (call sign Dory).

A U.S. Navy photo shows a crew member directing a Black Knight F-35C on the flight deck of the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier somewhere in the Pacific Ocean on Jan. 8, 2022. Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Michael Singley/U.S. Navy

A U.S. Navy photo shows a Black Knight F-35C as it launches from the flight deck of the USS Abraham Lincoln in the Philippine Sea on April 19, 2022. Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Javier Reyes/U.S. Navy

After a night in Darwin, I boarded a second KC-130J to Subic Bay. The passenger list was augmented by Bams; Col. William J. Mitchell (call sign Skull), an F/A-18 pilot and Snooki’s boss; and several enlisted personnel. During the flight, Bams and Skull discussed the importance of allies and partners for navigating the tyranny of distance in the Pacific and sustaining deterrence vis-à-vis China. “Every day that a near-peer competitor wakes up and senior leadership decides not to escalate, that’s a win [for U.S. deterrence],” Bams said. He noted that exercises with allies and partners are critical to this mission, that they build “sets and reps.” In his view, exercises build relationships and expand U.S. access in the region, which facilitates forward operations in both the first and second island chains.

The flight to Subic Bay covered about 2,500 miles (nearly the width of the continental United States) and took more than six hours. It highlighted the importance of regional partnerships for the U.S. military. The United States and Indonesia have a strategic partnership. They conduct bilateral military exercises. But the United States does not have unrestricted access and overflight rights in Indonesian airspace. All overflight requires lead time and coordination. Snooki told me that while the Black Knights transited over Indonesian land, our KC-130J could not. Britney referred to the flight path as “the snake around Indonesia.”

We arrived in Subic Bay by Wednesday afternoon, without the Black Knights. Snooki and Dory turned around after a new Air Force KC-46 Pegasus refueling basket failed to deploy.

The following rain-soaked day, parts of several 3rd Marine Aircraft Wing squadrons were gathered in a nondescript airplane hangar in the Subic Bay airport serving as a command and control center. Other areas in the local airport temporarily hosted Air Force and Army Special Operations Aviation aircraft, drones, cargo, and personnel.

For the upcoming aerial strike demonstration, four Death Rattler F/A-18s and two Black Knight F-35s would fly 15 miles off the Philippine coast and strike a vessel towed into place by the Philippine Armed Forces. A fifth F/A-18 would fly to an air base in Palawan province to demonstrate the Marine ability to refuel and rearm aircraft at a separate spoke.

At approximately 1:30 p.m. local time, the Black Knights circled the airport and landed. It was still raining. Snooki and Dory taxied around the airstrip as the Death Rattlers’ planes were armed with ordnance. The rain intensified. The F/A-18s waited for the rain to abate to start their strike. An hour later, the Death Rattlers pilot scheduled to fly to Palawan climbed out of his plane. Something had gone wrong. While he could fly in an emergency, he would not fly in the rain that day.

I met Snooki again at 3 p.m. He was animated. The bad news was his plane was out of service. He and Dory flew through an intense storm to get to Subic Bay, which damaged several parts in his plane. The good news was, despite the storm, they had conducted valuable auxiliary surveillance during their flight.

Both Snooki’s broken plane and Dory’s aircraft were parked in Bams’s command hangar at approximately 3:30 p.m. They sat alongside two privately owned Gulfstream jets. Dory helped me determine that both planes were fractionally owned by U.S. holding companies. The hangar’s director of flight operations told me that one is owned by a Filipino. The other is owned by someone in Singapore, who rumors circulating among the Marines suggested is Chinese. One of the challenges of working from spokes is they are not exclusively for U.S. use, and it is difficult to secure a stealth aircraft while hangar staff snap photos.

Snooki’s aircraft took four days to be repaired. It was guarded 24 hours a day while it was out of service. A Raider KC-130J ferried parts, a RAAF 28-volt battery, and people to Subic Bay from Williamtown to diagnose the damaged plane. Then a Raiders plane flew to Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni, where an F-35B squadron called the “Green Knights” is stationed. Snooki served as the executive officer of the Green Knights, and he planned their move to Iwakuni. The Black Knights drew on F-35B parts, including a generator, to fix Snooki’s aircraft. There were no C model-specific parts in Williamtown, and the supply was limited in Iwakuni.

While The Marines Reported That They Learned Many Valuable Logistical and Coordination Lessons, Exactly How These Lessons Will Be Applied and Scaled for Wartime Mobilization is Unclear.

Snooki told me that repairing his plane was a success for F-35 logistics. His unit drew on a range of spare parts available in theater that they were unable to bring or ship. Lockheed Martin, Black Knights pilots observed, controls the proprietary parts of the F-35 and can slow repair troubleshooting. Pilots and maintenance crews are consistent: The major impediment for Marine operations in the Pacific is the erratic process for getting spare parts and cargo into and inside the theater, followed closely by access to fuel and the rigors of aerial refueling.

Due to the unrelenting rain and storm and the two broken planes, neither the planned ship strike nor the F/A-18 refueling flight happened.

After repairing his plane, Snooki and Dory flew to Wake Island, a U.S. territory in the Western Pacific, to meet their squadron. But they got stuck. There were no Air Force tankers available to move them. Ultimately, the squadron relied on two Raider KC-130J’s to move them, two at a time, back to Hawaii over five days. Britney told me that her unit takes a twisted pride in this: “We like being the ones who always find a way to get to yes.” From Hawaii to San Diego, the Black Knights contracted a private aerial refueler. This was despite an ongoing Air Force exercise in the Pacific at the time, which was ironically designed to test Air Force logistics and coordination with allies and partners.

In peacetime, the Black Knights had to navigate several logistical hurdles to fix Snooki’s plane, from diagnosing the issue to traversing the Pacific for spare parts and then making their way home. They did it on their own with the support of the Raiders and contract aerial refueling and shipping.

This is in ideal circumstances, when Marine systems do not have to cope with many different F-35s or F/A-18s breaking and being shot at once or partner and allied militaries needing all the spare parts available to them. And while the Marines reported that they learned many valuable logistical and coordination lessons, exactly how these lessons will be applied and scaled for wartime mobilization is unclear.

A J-20 fighter jet performs during the Changchun Air Show in China’s Jilin province on July 26. Wan Quan/VCG Via Getty Images

Any form of deterrence is perhaps best thought of as a psychological state, predicated on decision-makers’ emotions and perceptions. U.S. efforts at deterrence failed to stop Russian President Vladimir Putin from invading Ukraine—but the argument about whether that’s because Washington did too little or too much continues.

The United States does not know the variables involved in Chinese President Xi Jinping’s calculations about conflict in Asia. U.S. leaders trying to find an equation for when enough military intermingling with allies and partners produces sufficient integrated deterrence face an inherently unprovable problem. The success of deterrence can only show over time; its failure is more immediate and far more costly.

And it’s hard to know the impact U.S. doctrinal and tactical choices have—unintentionally or otherwise—on China. Huang Xilian, the Chinese ambassador to the Philippines, said in April that offering the United States access to military bases near the Taiwan Strait was “stoking the fire” of regional tensions. But Beijing has an inherent interest in saying any action that deters it is a provocation.

Yet surrounding any country with permanent and temporary bases that can be used to deny access to sea lanes and launch standoff fire power could reasonably be viewed as provocative—even if the countries involved welcome it. This concern is magnified by the F-35 because of how well it operates with allies, common logistical networks, its stealth, and its longer range.

Both Air Force and Marine refuelers are large aircraft that attract the attention of adversaries, especially if they are in the air for long periods of time. As the Air Force and Marines address their coordination issues (on refueling booms and refueling in general), and both employ common hubs, spokes, and nodes to support integrated deterrence, near-peer competitor security concerns might be further magnified.

It’s equally clear that elements in the Chinese leadership believe U.S. efforts to be tantamount to offensive encirclement—and thus preparation for an unprovoked war.

The sheer scale of the U.S. military is intimidating to any adversary—and might prompt worries that the United States intends to strike first.

Washington pays little regard to these Chinese concerns. And to be sure, for the last two decades China has built up military infrastructure across the South China Sea, which it continues to expand. It has armed man-made islands with anti-ship and anti-aircraft missile systems as well as electronic warfare tools. These islands support China’s menacing of neighboring countries, against which it makes extensive territorial claims. From the U.S. perspective, even if China views U.S. actions as provocative, Beijing has built its own arguably defensive but certainly provocative military systems.

The Biden administration and the I Marine Expeditionary Force believe their tactical efforts in Asia are clearly defensive. This is demonstrated by their coordination with partners and allies. Indeed, several U.S. allies and partners in the region have expressed their preference for the United States to help deter China. But it’s equally clear that elements in the Chinese leadership believe these efforts to be tantamount to offensive encirclement—and thus preparation for an unprovoked war.

Every pilot I spoke to believed investing in deterrence is right and necessary and that allies and partners are key. Yet it’s hard to know how these systems will cope in the event of war. It is impossible to determine if all this preparation, and the costs that come with it, is deterring China—or ultimately provoking conflict.

— Zuri Linetsky is a Research Fellow at the Eurasia Group Foundation.

#United States 🇺🇸#China 🇨🇳#Pacific War #Foreign Policy #Zuri Linetsky

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