#lowy institute

[indizombie]

Over the past 20 years, China has become the largest lender in the Pacific. Now Tonga, Vanuatu and Samoa are spending some of the biggest sums in the world to repay debts to China, as a proportion of their GDP, according to Lowy Institute analysis. Tonga's annual debt repayments to China are nearly 4 per cent of its GDP — the third-highest level in the world. It's a rate that Lowy research associate Riley Duke calls "astronomically high". "On a global scale, it's really significant," he said. In Samoa, debt repayments to China are 2.6 per cent of GDP — the fourth-highest rate in the world — while Vanuatu's debt repayments (nearly 2 per cent) also put it in the top 10.

‘Pacific Island nations owe 'astronomical' debts to China. Can they repay?’, ABC

[xtruss]

[somerabbitholes]

Hey, Do you have any foreign policy reading recommendations?

Here are a few. Since I don't know what exactly you're looking for and foreign policy is huge, I've tried to go with a diverse bunch

The Revenge of Geography by Robert D. Kaplan: about what geography can tell us about conflicts and possible directions that international politics would take; really good analysis, really good starting point to learn how to think about geopolitics. You can check out his other books too, he's quite good

Prisoners of Geography by Tim Marshall: more on what the map and geography tells us about global diplomacy and international politics

Belt and Road by Bruno Macaes: about the Belt and Road project and the kind of international order it and China through the project envisions; the politics of the project

The Chip War by Chris Miller: it's a history of semiconductors and through them, about global supply chains and industrial manufacturing circuits and how geopolitics and foreign policy impacts industry/business

The Blood Telegram by Gary J Bass: about US involvement in South Asia during the Cold War and particularly how it shaped politics between India, Pakistan and China

War by Margaret MacMillan: not strictly foreign policy, but it is about the place of war in history and politics

I'd also just recommend reading magazines and news and reporting about international politics; it's always more timely and easier to get the hang of. You can check out Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Politico, Carnegie Endowment, Lowy Institute to start with; most of them also have podcasts

[southeastasianists]

In the days since Hamas launched a deadly attack on southern Israel on 7 October, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations has not made a formal statement about the crisis. This is not surprising, given that each ASEAN member sees the conflict differently. The language adopted and positions taken by individual ASEAN members reflect the interplay of historical or domestic dynamics in their foreign policy. ASEAN is a grouping – but on this issue, not a bloc.

Let’s look at the diverse response from the ASEAN members – where at one end of the spectrum, Brunei, Malaysia and Indonesia have expressed unity with the Palestinians. None of them has diplomatic relations with Israel and all have remained steadfast in their criticism of Israel despite Western pressure. Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim spoke to Ismail Haniyeh, the political bureau chief of Hamas, and expressed support for an immediate ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.

In each of Malaysia, Brunei and Indonesia, religion is significant in domestic politics. With Muslim majority populations, there is widespread public solidarity with the Palestinian struggles.

The significance of religion in Indonesian domestic politics was compelling enough for Ganjar Pranowo, one of the candidates for next year’s presidential election, to appear during an Islamic prayer call on a private TV station as part of his campaign. Furthermore, recent public demonstrations in Jakarta and Kuala Lumpur against Israel and the United States reflect sentiment on the street about the latest fighting, which governments cannot ignore.

Conversely, Singapore took a firm position against Hamas and strongly condemned the “terror attacks”. The small island-state has close defence relations with Israel, with Israeli military advisers assisting the Singapore Armed Forces since Singapore’s independence in 1965. Defence relations remain strong, as reflected in the joint development and production of surface-to-surface Blue Spear missiles.

Singapore’s strong stance against Hamas leaves it out of step with its larger Muslim-majority neighbours. Bilahari Kausikan, an influential former Singaporean diplomat, made clear the difference by frankly labelling as “bullshit” a view he attributed to a Malaysian ex-diplomat for the “root cause of the current violence” to be addressed, instead supporting a robust Israeli military response against Hamas.

Nevertheless, Singapore is concerned the crisis could lead to domestic division along religious lines as there is a sizable Muslim minority in the island-state. The government has banned events and public assemblies concerning the current Israel-Hamas conflict, citing rising tension as a reason. And to avoid a view that the Singapore position was one-sided, a government minister later said it was possible to be concerned regarding the Palestinian plights while condemning Hamas’ action. The Singaporean President and Prime Minister sent letters to Palestinian leaders, expressing condolences for the mounting casualties in the Gaza Strip, and pledging a $300,000 donation in humanitarian aid.  

Two other ASEAN members, the Philippines and Thailand, have large numbers of nationals working in Israel and have suffered casualties in the current crisis. Yet each responded differently. The Philippines condemned Hamas’ actions, while Thailand initially expressed neutrality, stating that “we do not know the truth about the political climate between the two nations [Palestine and Israel].” Manila’s response could be attributed to its experience battling militant groups in the southern Philippines over decades. As recently as 2017, militant groups professing alignment with the Islamic State seized control of Marawi, a city in the south of the Philippines, which led to a months-long campaign by the Philippines military with regional support to drive the militants out.

Across mainland Southeast Asia, Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam issued softer statements, expressing concern about the crisis without assigning blame to any party. The military junta in Myanmar is more focused on regime survival, launching an air strike against domestic insurgents, killing 29 people a few days after the Hamas attack on Israel.

These historical and domestic dynamics inform the policy of individual ASEAN states and provide some perspective in their reading of and response to the current crisis in the Middle East. It demonstrates a lack of unity among the Southeast Asian grouping that some observers argue dilutes its relevance. Yet despite the diverse responses by individual ASEAN members, there has been no official criticism by one member against another. This is consistent with ASEAN’s norms of non-interference in each other’s affairs, which aims to ensure the stability of Southeast Asia, a region that is still experiencing the threat of terrorism, internal rebellions, and inter-state territorial disputes.

Perhaps the silent acceptance of diverse positions is a strategy for ASEAN to cope in the more volatile world that we live in today.

[zvaigzdelasas]

The Panguna mine in Bougainville, an autonomous region of Papua New Guinea, closed in 1989 after pollution sparked a local rebellion. As many as 20,000 people, close to 10 per cent of the island’s population, died in the civil war that followed.

Once controlled by Anglo-Australian miner Rio Tinto, Panguna has been the subject of intense interest from speculators and smaller companies for more than two decades, but only in recent months has resuming copper and gold mining looked achievable.

The Autonomous Bougainville Government sees the revival of the project as critical to the island’s economic destiny following a referendum in 2019 that almost unanimously backed independence from PNG. It has tried to resolve a legal dispute over who has the rights to mine Panguna. Bougainville Copper Limited, the Australian-listed historic operator of the mine that is now majority owned by the island’s government, is confident it will be issued a new exploration licence next year.

The island’s President Ishmael Toroama also appointed himself as mining minister in September. Advisers say he is determined to set Panguna on the path towards reopening ahead of elections set to take place in 2025 in order to show progress is being made towards independence.[...]

Reopening Panguna is seen as critical to making Bougainville economically independent as the island pushes to secede. The island’s vote for independence four years ago, part of a peace process agreed in 2001, was non-binding and must be ratified by the PNG parliament. 

James Marape, prime minister of PNG, told a Lowy Institute event in Sydney this month that ratification was “at the doorsteps”, but stressed he would not pre-empt the parliamentary process.[...]

BCL said it would require a larger partner to develop the site. Australian, US and Chinese mining companies are all active in PNG and Togolo said he would not rule out working with any partners.

“Geopolitics is a factor not just in Bougainville but in PNG and the Pacific,” he said. “For us it is about working with someone who will share the benefits with us all.”

PNG signed a bilateral security agreement with Australia this month, which followed a security pact with the US earlier in the year. Bougainville lies between PNG’s mainland and the Solomon Islands, which has forged closer ties with China in the past two years including a security agreement. 

Toroama, who wants to achieve secession by 2027, travelled to Washington in November when he met politicians and business leaders in what advisers said was a sign the government favours a North American or Australian partner for Panguna.

27 Dec 23

[beardedmrbean]

Finnish PM Sanna Marin has said Europe is "not strong enough" to stand up to Russia's invasion of Ukraine on its own, and has had to rely on US support.

During a visit to Australia, the leader of the pending Nato member said Europe's defences must be strengthened.

"I must be brutally honest with you, Europe isn't strong enough right now," she said. "We would be in trouble without the United States."

The US is by far the largest provider of military assistance to Ukraine.

Since the start of the war in February, it has committed $18.6bn (€17.7bn; £15.2bn) in support, a research briefing last month by the UK's House of Commons said.

The second largest donor is the European Union, followed by the UK, the Kiel Institute for the World Economy says. But their contributions are dwarfed by those of the US.

And with European countries' military stocks depleting as they supply Ukraine, Ms Marin said more needed to be done to bolster European defences.

Speaking at the Lowy Institute think tank in Sydney on Friday, Ms Marin said: "The United States has given a lot of weapons, a lot of financial aid, a lot of humanitarian aid to Ukraine and Europe isn't strong enough yet."

She added that Europe must make sure it is "building those capabilities when it comes to European defence, European defence industry, and making sure that we could cope in different kinds of situations".

While in office, US President Donald Trump regularly criticised European countries in Nato for not spending enough on defence.

In 2020, it was estimated the US spent just over 3.7% of its GDP on defence - while the average for Nato's European members (and Canada) was 1.77%.

Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February, many European Union and Nato-member countries have pledged to increase their defence spending.

In February, Germany announced an extra $113bn (£84bn) for their army, and a constitutional commitment to Nato's military spending target of 2% of GDP.

In June, the UK - under then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson - said its defence spending would hit 2.5% of GDP by the end of the decade.

All Nato members must commit to 2% to "to ensure the alliance's military readiness," Nato says. And there have been recent calls on Nato members to increase their defence spending to 3% of GDP.

Finland, which shares a long border with Russia, formally applied to join Nato in May. Accession protocols were signed in July, although they are yet to be ratified by all other members.

[mariacallous]

In May 2022, Joe Biden was on a charm offensive. The US president invited the leaders of 10 Southeast Asian nations to the White House for the first time for talks about the region, which is home to more than 600 million people. High on the agenda was China—a key trading partner for all the countries, but also a potential threat to their stability. Biden promised $150 million in extra support for the nations to help improve their security, infrastructure, and ongoing pandemic response. 

However, in the weeks leading up to the meeting, according to a cybersecurity alert seen by WIRED, hackers working on behalf of China were stealing thousands of emails and sensitive details from the Southeast Asian nations. The cyberespionage, which has not been previously reported, is the latest in a string of incidents where Chinese-linked hackers have quietly compromised neighboring countries, looking to gain political and economic information.

According to the cybersecurity alert, Chinese-linked hackers were able to break into mail servers operated by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in February 2022 and steal a trove of data. The ASEAN organization is an intergovernmental body made up of 10 Southeast Asian countries, including Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand. This was the third time the organization has been compromised since 2019, the document says.

The hackers were able to steal “gigabytes” of emails sent by ASEAN countries, and the data was stolen “daily,” according to the cybersecurity alert. It’s believed that the attackers stole more than 10,000 emails, making up more than 30 GB of data. The incident “impacts all ASEAN members due to correspondence that was compromised,” the alert says. The notification was sent to cybersecurity agencies, foreign affairs ministries, and other governmental organizations in all 10 of the ASEAN member countries. 

Haji Amirudin Abdul Wahab, the CEO of CyberSecurity Malaysia, an agency under the country’s Ministry of Science, Technology, and Innovation, says it received the alert in 2022, notified officials within the country, and generally condemns hacking. Other nations impacted declined to comment or did not respond to WIRED’s request for comment. The ASEAN group itself did not respond to repeated requests for comment. 

China's embassy in the US did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Amplified Voices, Quiet Theft

“ASEAN is really important as the key regional grouping, not just in Southeast Asia but beyond,” says Susannah Patton, director of the Southeast Asia Program at Australian think tank the Lowy Institute. Patton explains that ASEAN helps coordinate Southeast Asian policies across a number of different areas. “Even beyond Southeast Asia, ASEAN has an important role because it convenes or organizes other big regional summits,” Patton says. As a result, the data it holds could be useful for understanding political feelings in the region.

ASEAN helps to “amplify” the voices of the 10 member countries that are involved in it, says Scot Marciel, an Oksenberg-Rohlen Fellow at Stanford University and former US ambassador to Indonesia and Myanmar. The group holds both formal meetings and informal conversations, Marciel says, and will discuss everything from economic integration and infrastructure plans to trade negotiations and geopolitics. “That would all be stuff that I would think Beijing would be interested in,” Marciel says.

The cybersecurity alert seen by WIRED says that to steal emails from ASEAN, Chinese threat actors used “valid credentials” to compromise mail servers linked to the group. These Microsoft Exchange servers used the mail.asean.org and auto.discover.asean.org domains. The document also lists four Microsoft Exchange server vulnerabilities that were abused by those behind the hack. Microsoft first published details of the vulnerabilities in March 2021 and linked their use to Chinese threat actor Hafnium, which attacked tens of thousands of mail servers at the time.

The cybersecurity alert advised member countries to reset credentials, monitor remote email collection from unknown locations, and defend against the vulnerabilities. It also notes that this isn’t the first time Chinese threat actors have compromised ASEAN. In July 2021, the alert says, the ShadowPad malware was used to compromise the organization. Meanwhile, between May and October 2019, Chinese attackers used the PlugX malware to steal more than 100 ASEAN-related documents. 

ShadowPad and PlugX are both remote-access tools that are commonly used by Chinese-linked hackers, says Ben Read, director of cyberespionage analysis at US cybersecurity firm Mandiant. They operate as backdoors and allow hackers to take control of someone’s machine, including uploading and downloading files and moving through someone’s network. “PlugX has been the workhorse of Chinese cyberespionage for the past decade,” Read says. 

Hacking Spree

For all countries across Southeast Asia, China is a crucial partner. The nation is the biggest power in the region, and trade between the countries is crucial to many of their economies. “China wants to build closer ties with these countries,” says Olivia Cheung, a research fellow at the China Institute at SOAS University of London. Chinese president Xi Jinping has talked of building a “community of common destiny” with ASEAN countries.

Despite this, the playing field won’t be leveled. China has spent billions on infrastructure and manufacturing across Southeast Asia—particularly through the Belt and Road Initiative, an infrastructure investment project that helps give China political and economical power. As a result, there are many tensions between the neighbors, including around the South China Sea. “Efforts to deepen positive relations are quite often offset by the Chinese government's approach to securitize everything,” Cheung says.

China’s state-sponsored hackers are incredibly active in the area, multiple cybersecurity experts say. “The region holds vital strategic importance, due to its geographical location and its growing economic importance,” says Che Chang, a cyber-threat analyst at Taiwan-based cybersecurity firm TeamT5. Che says that in recent years government and military units in Southeast Asian countries have been a common target for China’s hackers. In the second half of 2022, there was a 20 percent increase in China-linked cyberattacks against Southeast Asian countries, compared with the same time in 2021, he says.

Security firm Recorded Future has tracked 10 Chinese-linked groups attacking Southeast Asian countries in the past two years—primarily government and military organizations. Throughout 2021, Recorded Future detected 400 servers in Southeast Asia that were communicating with malware infrastructure likely linked to Chinese state-sponsored actors, a report from the firm says. Malaysia, Indonesia, and Vietnam were targeted the most.

“The identified intrusion campaigns almost certainly support key strategic aims of the Chinese government, such as gathering intelligence on countries engaged in South China Sea territorial disputes or related to projects and countries strategically important to the Belt and Road Initiative,” the report says.

China’s state-sponsored hackers are considered some of the most sophisticated and capable in the world. Since the Ministry of State Security, the country’s civilian intelligence agency, largely took over cyber operations in 2015, it has been more aggressive in its hacking. Mandiant’s Read says that Chinese threat actors often share hacking tools, such as PlugX and Shadowpad, across different hacking groups.

Within Southeast Asia, Read says, it's common for attacks to involve spearfishing. “It's a little bit less cutting edge than we see operating in other places,” Read says. But it can still get results. Read cites one phishing email sent to multiple Southeast Asian countries named 2021ASEANcontactlistupdate.doc. “The amount of cyber intrusions are driven by intelligence requirements—somebody in Beijing saying, ‘We need to know more about this because it's important,’” Read says.

The cyberespionage and hacking threat from China has drawn more attention in recent years, with US and UK officials calling out the potential risks. On February 15, the European Union Agency for Cybersecurity (ENISA) issued a public advisory that reiterated the threat. It named six hacking groups linked to China and said they steal information after “establishing persistent footholds” in organizations. 

Across Southeast Asia, Che says, it is likely that China’s increase in attacks could be a response to the US focusing more on its relationships within Asia—he highlights economic and security operations as possible causes. “We believe the US policy shift has struck China's nerves,” Che says.

[curiouswhile]

Reading List (2023) WIP

The Wolves of the Calla - Stephen King

IT - Stephen King

The Picture of Dorian Grey - Oscar Wilde

M Is for Magic - Neil Gaiman

iRobot - Issac Asimov

Song of Susannah - Stephen King

A Deadly Education - Naomi Novik

Pet Sematary - Stephen king

The Giver - Lowis Lowry

All Systems Red - Martha Wells

Artificial Condition - Martha Wells

The Institute - Stephen King

The Tommyknockers - Stephen King

The Book of Investing Wisdom - Richard Poe

Life as we Knew it - Susan Beth Pfeffer

The Wolf Gift - Anne Rice

Noor - Nnedi Okorafor

Elatsoe - Little Badger

The Dark Tower - Stephen King

The Wolves of Midwinter - Anne Rice

The Three Body Problem - Cixin Liu

Ringworld - Larry Niven

The Ringworld Engineers - Larry Niven

The Ringworld Throne - Larry Niven

Recursion - Blake Crouch

The Hobbit - Tolkien

Tomorrow and Tomorrow and Tomorrow - Gabrielle Zevin

[simonh]

Papillomavirus Virus-Like Particles: for Vaccines Against HPV and Other Diseases by National Library of Medicine Via Flickr: Alternate Title(s): For vaccines against HPV and other diseases Series Title(s): G. Burroughs Mider lecture Contributor(s): Lowy, Doug., National Institutes of Health (U.S.)., Medical Arts and Photography Branch., Foundation for Advanced Education in the Sciences (Bethesda, Md.) Publication: [Bethesda, Md. : Medical Arts and Photography Branch, National Institutes of Health, 2002] Language(s): English Format: Still image Subject(s): Papillomavirus Infections -- prevention & control, Alphapapillomavirus, Viral Vaccines Genre(s): Posters Abstract: Poster in a yellowish green and royal blue with blue print on the yellow/green section and white print on the blue section. The visual is a reperesentation of a papillomavirus particle in gray and brown and has a three-dimensional effect. Extent: 1 photomechanical print (poster) : 82 x 46 cm. Technique: color NLM Unique ID: 101456152 NLM Image ID: C02917 Permanent Link: resource.nlm.nih.gov/101456152

[indizombie]

"Mathematically, yes, China accounts for around 40% of global growth," says George Magnus, an economist at the University of Oxford's China Centre. "But who is that growth benefitting? China runs a huge trade surplus. It exports so much more than it imports, so how much China grows or doesn't grow is really more about China than it is about the rest of the world." Nevertheless, China spending less on goods and services - or on housebuilding - means less demand for raw materials and commodities. In August, the country imported nearly 9% less compared to the same time last year - when it was still under zero-Covid restrictions. "Big exporters such as Australia, Brazil and several countries in Africa will be hit hardest by this," says Roland Rajah, director of the Indo-Pacific Development Centre at the Lowy Institute in Sydney.

Nick Marsh, ‘What China's economic problems mean for the world’, BBC

[xtruss]

Global Times: When The West Talks About China's Change, What Do They Fear?

— August 24, 2023

Out of touch with reality. Illustration: Liu Rui/Global Times

The world we live today is the world in which the West has been expanding for 500 years, but the Global South, represented by China, is on the rise.

However, the West's expansion and Global South's emergence are not going to integrate in a silky-smooth transition, especially for the West - it is entering this change with a deep affection and attachment to its 500 years of expansion.

On Tuesday, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock expressed her feelings in a virtual speech to the Lowy Institute, an Australia think tank: "Increasingly, China is a rival - when it comes to the very fundamentals of how we live together in this world.

"China has changed, and that's why our policy toward China also needs to change," she added.

If we look at the changes in US and Western policy toward China based on the so-called change of China, described by Baerbock, what we see is a China that is seemingly like the West of 500 years ago - full of drive for global exploration, expansion, and colonization, and unafraid to use military power as a precursor to unifying the wealth and faith of the world under the banner of Western civilization

However, China's "change" in Baerbock's description is filled with the Western imagination.

Over the past four decades of its reform and opening-up, China has followed a path of peaceful development. At the core of China's change is the modernization of a home to one-fifth of the world's population, fundamentally altering global development and our way of living together.

China's change is not a result of failing to respond to the abrupt changes in the tide of globalization. On the contrary, Chinese enterprises that have been or are on the verge of leading the world are all advancing in the market economy.

The West looks at China's change with fear, because they are not willing to fully give China the world status it deserves, including China's position in the global manufacturing and the global market.

One example is the West's treatment of electric vehicles produced in China.

In a recent interview with the Telegraph, a senior British government official said, "If it is manufactured in a country like China, how certain can you be that it won't be a vehicle for collecting intel and data?"

Jim Saker, president of the Institute of the Motor Industry, put it more sinisterly and told The Times that "the threat of connected electric vehicles flooding the country could be the most effective Trojan horse that the Chinese establishment has."

The backdrop to this concern is that China has become the world's largest producer of electric cars, with surging exports knocking on the doors of the US and Europe.

All products related to the internet and AI technology undoubtedly face information security concerns. But highlighting the ideological attributes of this issue, rather than addressing it realistically through legal provisions that are consistent with a market economy, is clearly contrary to the order emphasized by the West, and underscores the fact that this so-called order, which is used to bash China, is in fact self-serving, narrow-minded and conservative.

In the final analysis, it is evident the West can't accept the challenge posed by China's change, and still recognizes in its bones that China can only be inferior to the West as a follower, rather than a leader.

China is changing, the Global South is changing, and such changes are bound to touch Western interests. If the West pushes China to the hostile side because of their inability to accept such changes, in the end, China will not be the only one facing difficulties and challenges.

Whether the West is willing to share the order they have built over the past 500 years is directly related to the advancement or retreat of human development.

[nawapon17]

The US wakes up to China’s latest threat – big ships | Lowy Institute

[zvaigzdelasas]

10 May 23

[cmpmobile]

India Overtakes Japan: Asia Power Index 2024 Explained

For the first time, India has overtaken Japan to bag the third spot, in the list of countries in terms of its power in Asia. The Asia Power Index Report 2024 curated by Australian think tank Lowy Institute, suggests that India’s power in the continent is growing. The index, measuring the resources and influence to rank the ‘relative power of states in Asia’, ranks 27 countries and territories in…