#kanon's moots

[n3on-graveston3s-calling]

May I have Crocodile x GN!Reader hcs? Any soft ones? Just any and all silly hcs you may think about. 😊🫶Love your writing, I hope you feel better darling!! Much love to you.

HELLO???

Oh you absolutely CAN have some headcanons. I love Crocodile a little too much, so this is right up my alley. <3 thank you so much!!!!! Ilysm

─── ･ ｡ﾟ☆: .☽ . :☆ﾟ. ───

Word Count: 381

•Very big fan of having you wear his coat, regardless of how ridiculous it may look given the height difference ( if there is one ). Seeing you in it just scratches something in his brain.

•Protective. Very, very protective- one could argue that it's nearly obsessive with how he holds you close, that hook curved around your waist. Never to harm, never- only to hold. To better shield you with his own form.

( Fits the trope of “I would kill for them.” VERY well. )

•Buys you jewelry. No, no- nothing gaudy, gods no. But those delicate golden chains with a precious gemstone dangling from? Rings with woven bands that are inlaid with precious jewels? Just casually, too. He'll come in to your shared suite at the end of the day with a black box tied with a ribbon. Surprise.

•He enjoys hearing you read out loud. When the two of you are alone and he's going over The ledgers for Rain Dinners? Or, later on, for the Cross Guild? Sitting before his desk while you relax on a chaise lounge, reading your book- or even better, something of importance to him. He could fall asleep to the sound.

( and has. )

•Loves, Loves, LOVES when you cook for him. Claims that nothing will ever taste as good as the food that his amore makes. HOWEVER- when it comes to making certain dishes, he will take over. He's very particular about sauces, you see? If you don't use enough salt…

•Has gifted you a Bananawani.

•Who needs a scary dog when you have Sir Crocodile two steps behind you whenever you go somewhere? Anything you want, you get- regardless of the price.

•…can and will fall asleep with his head on your lap if you brush your fingers through his hair. Sometimes, it's nice to be taken care of.

•He Does Not Smoke In Your Rooms. in his office? Sure. Outside? Of course. But when you are in your bedroom? Not a cigar in sight. ( He doesn't want your clothes to smell like cigar smoke. )

•And a hint of spice-

He truly does love the view from below…

[sappho114]

I've only really been using tumblr via mobile for most of the past week because dem/liberal brained people are upsettingly myopic and don't understand things but I am tentatively maybe more frequently posting/queueing next week?

Feeling slightly like more of a person now that I've trimmed a lot of people following me by blocking the worst of the liberal posters slavering for genocide and am now planning for my shadowrun game tomorrow which has me pretty excited since we're pivoting back to the main campaign and my girlfriend is rejoining us after a busy season at work

[sailormoonsub]

ok so i am obligated as both a longtime mutual who thinks i have a handle on ur tastes/interests, and as someone who has been desperately obsessed with a piece of media for months and needs to drag more people in with me, to say: i think u should watch shoujo kageki revue starlight. i'm not even saying u should liveblog it if u dont want to, but i think you'd genuinely love it. idk how much u know about it and i dont want to spoil anything but i will say the director worked with ikuhara and was pretty influenced by him. also it's very very gay (plus besides the anime+movie there's a bunch of stage musicals and the cast has a wild amount of sera myu revival overlap. koyama momoyo, who played ami in petit etrangere and un nouveau voyage, plays the protagonist in all the properties, and in the stage musicals they also brought in nanaki kanon (rei), nomoto hotaru (usagi in amour eternal and le mouvement final), and kuge kokoro (one of the chibiusa actresses))

also of course this is all moot if you've already seen it sometime in the past few years but. if you haven't i really really think you'd enjoy it

THANK YOU for your service as someone who is always right about what I would like. I haven't seen Revue Starlight yet but it sounds soooo Audrey-coded and I will definitely give it a watch!

This ask in particular is also reminding me that I haven't reviewed (revued) most of the Sailor Moon stage musicals yet and GOD I MISS THEM SO MUCH

[girls-band-headcanons]

Since you said you hc all the girls speaking at least one other language I was wondering what other language hc you had

Mod Fusion: My HCs for the Roselia members are here.

(Note: All the girls know at least some English, in addition to sign language.)

Poppin Party: I'd imagine Kasumi to know Spanish (probably took a course one time only to get bored), Tae to know Hebrew and Thai (the former thanks to a Jewish!Tae fic by @divinenoodlestand), Rimi to know Korean (because of her love of horror media from that country), Saaya to know Spanish/Italian/French (vibes), and Arisa to know German (it's the Asuka vibes).

Afterglow: Because of her love of metal, I'd imagine that Ran (and the rest of Afterglow) would know a Scandinavian language (like Swedish and/or Norwegian). Tomoe also knows Spanish (thanks to my part-Afro-Columbian Udagawas headcanon), which she taught the rest of Afterglow.

Pastel*Palettes: Need more be said with Eve? Aya would know Korean thanks to her love of K-Pop, Chisato knows Russian (as a Sumipe reference), and Maya would probably learn a language like Turkish or Arabic (projection on the latter perhaps).

Hello Happy World!: Kokoro knows EVERY language, Kaoru knows Spanish (thanks to being part-Basque) and other Romance languages, Hagumi knows Spanish (because of Kasumi and the shopping district), Kanon knows Russian (because of Chisato), and I think Misaki would know Filipino (thanks to @caramelmochacrow)

Morfonica: Mashiro wishes to learn another language, but is too scared to try, Nanami knows several languages (to no one's surprise), both Touko and Rui know Filipino (thanks to the Filipino Rui headcanon @luminawkes has, and my personal belief that Touko has Filipino moots she learned from), and my headcanons for Tsukushi varies, so she speaks lots of languages.

Raise A Suilen: LAYER knows Thai (because Raychell is part-Thai), LOCK knows Spanish (like a true Kasumi stan), MASKING knows French (because of her school) and Spanish (due to the shopping district), and PAREO and CHU@ both know several languages and pepper their speech with phrases from all of them.

[choberr]

The most frustrating thing when talking about Kanon to my moots and wanting to add something that is canon for him I just can't use the two in a sentence or a thread because then it becomes "Kanon canonically *insert fact here* blah blah blah" and that makes my brain go wehhzhshdfgshdg and I physically and mentally can't handle that and it gets even worse when you remember this man's dub name is "Canon" which is basically "cannon" which is even more confusing because who the fuck names their kid Canon/Kanon out of all things like Hino did you really had to fry that brain of mine c'mon man

[shslprince]

Finally beat All the question arcs for Umineko! While I’m waiting for the answer arc to boot up, I wanted to go over my thoughts so far, tho they’re probably a bit scattered and all over the place lol

Bro, the Ushiromiyas are so fucked up. It’s awesome. All of them are desperate, willing to stoop to disgusting lows. Their upbringing by Kinzo to be as coldblooded capitalists really fucked up their relationships growing up, but there’s also a side to them where they do want to be better. It’s.. a lot, they’re very multi-faceted.

Speaking of family, when people say Ryukishi07 used to be a social worker before working on his games, all the scenes with Maria and Rosa definitely prove this. Their scenes are very uncomfortable, and hit a little to close to home.  It’s incredibly tragic as well. Rosa really does love Maria, and wants to be a better mother for her. But she also despises Maria, with the stigma of being a single mother.

Along with that, it is intriguing that sexism is a rather blatant aspect within the writing. There is plenty of focus on Rosa, Eva and Natsuhi all being mistreated due to their status of being a woman. Eva in particular had to deal with the harsh misogyny from her brother and father, but as a result perpetrates that same cruelty to her sister and in-laws.

Beatrice is so fun. It’s surprising how naturally she went from a sneering, cruel and prideful woman that eagerly busts battlers balls at any given moment to a pathetic sopping beast by the end of Episode 4. Her dynamic with Battler is very fun, and I’m always having fun whenever they’re on screen together.

Finally, There’s the overall message of the series: Without love, it cannot be seen.

I’m not sure if Ryukishi was ever into true crime, but reading through the games during the current hype for the genre is fascinating, especially in episode 4. The bizarre murders of Rokkenjima becoming a focal point of rumors and gossip, constant theorizing as to what happened, in a way turning a tragedy to a plaything for armchair detectives. The survivor and their families are dehumanized, constantly being pestered for answers instead of being looked at sympathetically.

The element of love is important. Without love, or sympathy, finding the true nature and motives of the massacre will be impossible.

Very intrigued with how the answer arcs will play out. I was vaguely aware of how the question arcs went since I was first exposed to this series via the terrible DEEN anime, but from here on it’s all new territory. I’m very excited!

Entering the answer arcs, here are my theories so far;

Beato is definitely one of the servants. If I had to guess, probably Shannon with Kanon backing her up. Those two always felt off, especially during the third game where they somehow “came back” near the end. Plus, considering both of them are using pseudonyms the whole time, any declarations of their deaths in red can be moot if its not using their real names. With Virgilia being a possible stand-in for Kumasawa and Ronove for Genji, Shannon being a stand-in for Beato is possible.

Instead of 1 culprit behind all murders, it's likely there are multiple murders that are happening concurrently. All the siblings have a strong enough motive and quite a few have enough combat experience it's possible some of them really were trying to take others down for the inheritance/the epitaphs gold.

Anyways, onto new ground!

[elegantmadness]

tagged by @god-blues to assign a song to every letter in your url; never had I realized how long my url is until now XD but I enjoyed this c:

E - Easier to Run, Linkin Park

L - Lost in Paradise, Evanescence

E - End of All Hope, Nightwish

G - Give Me a Sign, Breaking Benjamin

A - Animal, Aurora

N - Numbers, Daughter

T - Thunder, Imagine Dragons

M - Mile Deep Hollow, IAMX

A - Again, Yui

D - Das Rad des Schicksals, E Nomine

N - No Light No Light, Florence + the Machine

E - Everyday Is Exactly The Same, Nine Inch Nails

S - Spanish Sahara, Foals

S - Still Doll, Kanon Wakeshima

Not gonna tag anybody, tho :c My only moot tagged me already sooooo, yeah. If you're so inclined, feel free tho~

[jalnandanz]

YASS KANON DREAMFEST SUPREMACY 🛐🛐 i haven't played multilive with moots for so Long i think my acc is rotting🕴️

OMG WE SHOULD PLAY TGT FR!!!!! do u want to maybe make a disc gc 🤔🤔☝☝☝ also i am Stealing that kokoro pic sawry

[n3on-graveston3s-calling]

Whole Cake island, you will cry like a baby for Sanji. Also you will fall in love with Katakuri.

Oh Anon...

I've gotta get through Dressrossa first & fall in love with Cora, apparently. But I know WCI is gonna KILL me & Katakuri will become a favorite.

I already love his design-

[akatokuro]

What are the type of things that you'd want to see explored in Umineko Saku? One of things I have grown curious of is seeing Tohya's viewpoints as a character and how he coped with the trauma of the massacre and how he found the truth on his own terms while trying to resist being overtaken by "Battler". (1/2)

(2/2) I’m also curious in seeing more direct Ikuko/Tohya interactions because when you think about it Ikuko must have spent a lot of money and time investigating things I can’t imagine Tohya finding out himself with just his perspective as Battler, like the history of Yasu, the real origin of the gold and Kinzo, some of the backstory of his relatives… (I can totally see Battler meeting with he same people that Ange did but as just an anonymous journalist or a similar cover story) 

Well, um, Saku has been released now, so the point is a bit moot since I’m the slowest person in the world to answer asks nowadays, but as far as “what I would have wished for in an additional episode to Umineko” is probably more exploration of Kanon (Always Need More Kanon), as well as a more satisfying resolution for Will and Lion - as well as more connective tissue between the Yasu at the end of EP7 and the Yasu we see in EP8. 

I would have loved to see more Ikuko and Tohya too, though! Tohya’s internal journey that exists in subtext throughout the episodes is super fascinating to me, but so much of it is left purely implied and very much up to subjective interpretation. (That being said, the manga putting forth that Ikuko happened to find Confession of the Golden Witch in a message bottle is ridiculous and I just outright ignore it, lol.) And yes, seeing more of a direct depiction of Tohya’s struggle with “Battler” would have been fascinating and painful. 

[bitchoftruth]

Kinzo and Kanon talk about the epitaph.

Two things. Up until now everyone said that only genji and nanjo are allowed in the study (Of course are largely moot point considering that all the study scenes are fake). Also this is the second mention of furniture, the first was by shannon to battler, and he didn’t really react to it at all. 

[kaijusaurus]

In the kaiju circles I usually run in, we tend to refer to the period between (and including) 2007 and 2012 as the “wilderness years”, i.e., a time when the output of new, original kaiju media reached a significant low. That’s not to say there wasn’t anything new – independent films like Deep Sea Monster Raiga and Geharha, the Dark and Long-Haired Monster gained attention in 2009, while the omnipresent Ultraman franchise quietly but steadily beat on against the popular current. Perhaps the perceived lack of output is not the reason we refer to these years the “wilderness” – there was almost at least one new production for each of the aforementioned years. Rather, the wildly varying quality of this period’s output is a more likely explanation. An even bigger contributing factor may be the lack of a big name franchise to anchor this period, with Godzilla having gone on self-imposed retirement in 2004, and a new Gamera franchise failing to take off after 2006’s Gamera the Brave.

In the 1960s, the presence of Toho and Daiei’s mega-franchises allowed competing studios to throw their hats into the kaiju ring – Nikkatsu offered up Gappa, the Triphibian Monster (1967), Toei introduced us to The Magic Serpent (1966), and crashing down to Earth came The X From Outer Space (1967), from Shochiku. With Godzilla and Gamera raking in mega-bucks at the box office, these alternative offerings were able to bask in reflected glory. However, between 2007 and 2012 no such big franchises existed, and while Ultraman persisted, his popularity and box office draw was the lowest it had been since the franchise was resurrected with Ultraman Tiga (1996). During Godzilla’s Millennium series (1999 to 2004), Japanese filmgoers became fatigued with the varying quality of each successive production, and eventually grew tired of giant monster action on the big screen. Gamera’s attempted resurrection in 2006 never stood a chance – the climate simply rendered it moot.

The “wilderness years” nonetheless represent something relatively unique in the history of the kaiju genre: a surprisingly high number of kaiju comedies were produced in this time. Much like the spaghetti-western in the ‘70s, perhaps kaiju filmmakers sought to keep the genre alive by introducing over-the-top comedic elements to the traditional genre structures in the search for something fresh and new. The first of the big kaiju comedies was Hitoshi Matsumoto’s Big Man Japan, released in 2007. Something of an absurdist deconstruction of the “giant hero” genre, the film features Matsumoto himself as a deadbeat loser with no friends, strained relationships with his few family members, and a lifestyle just above the poverty line – and who can transform into a giant to combat kaiju attacks. In a highly surrealistic ending – even by this film’s standards – Big Man Japan even manages to make a statement about Japan’s uneasy relationship with its superpowered ally, the United States. Acting as something not unlike a kaiju play on This is Spinal Tap!, Big Man Japan is perhaps not the most accessible kaiju comedy for Western viewers, but is certainly at least something entirely new for the genre during a time when it desperately needed exactly that.  However, for every This is Spinal Tap!, there’s sure to be a Superhero Movie, or Epic Movie, or…

Minoru Kawasaki’s Monster X Strikes Back! Attack the G-8 Summit – a satirically flaccid attempt to parody the leaders of the free world – could not have come at a worse time. Resurrecting the monster Guilala from The X From Outer Space after an absence of 41 years on the screen, the film makes two tardy fundamental errors: coming along after Godzilla and Gamera were both discharged from active duty, and reviving a one-shot monster that hadn’t been seen on the big screen (in any non-stock footage cameo capacity) for four decades – even then, that was during what was practically the complete opposite of the wilderness years: the “Kaiju Boom” of the 1960s. 2008 also saw the release of Great Decisive Battle! Superior Ultraman 8 Brothers, the 20th theatrically released Ultraman movie. Featuring return appearances from characters that spanned 40 years of the franchise, the film is a very fine one, but ultimately falls into the pitfall that so many Ultraman features do: overdependence on the audience’s familiarity with the franchise’s rich history. This problem is especially highlighted by the fact that the film largely takes place in an alternate universe with equally alternate versions of otherwise familiar characters.

2009 was somewhat kinder to the kaiju genre, with a generally more favourable slew of features seeing release. Shinpei Hayashiya, responsible for the legendary fan-film Gamera 4: Truth (2003), released the second film in his Reigo/Raiga series, Deep Sea Monster Raiga. A sequel to 2005’s Reigo: The Deep Sea Monster vs. the Battleship Yamato, the film – to put it lightly – is an uneven one, and suffers from a wildly irregular tone and some flat attempts at humour. Nonetheless, Hayashiya’s adoration of the genre shines through enough to make the film at least an enjoyable one. An even more affectionate tribute to the genre shines through in the 20-minute short Geharha: The Dark and Long-Haired Monster. Featuring direct homages to the likes of Invasion of Astro-Monster (1965) and The Mysterians (1957), Geharha benefits from a brisk running time and breakneck humour, all the while being careful not to mock the genre itself, but just affectionately have fun with it. Director Kiyotaka Taguchi would – very deservedly - go on to anchor the Ultra series’ return to glory, working on the television productions Ultraman Ginga (2013), Ultraman X (2015), Ultraman Orb (2016), and their movie counterparts.

The same cannot be said for Tomoo Haraguchi’s Death Kappa (2010). Produced with noble intentions – to film a new, original kaiju film created entirely through the use of traditional tokusatsu effects techniques – Death Kappa is nothing short of a trainwreck of a movie. Much of the humour is detrimentally absurd, and some jokes commit the cardinal sin of actually making fun of the genre and techniques it claims to be paying homage to. Haraguchi’s intentions were certainly commendable, but the finished product ranks among the very worst of the kaiju genre and – somewhat dishearteningly – is a film that betrays its own modus operandi. Haraguchi’s efforts (or lack thereof) are doubly disappointing considering he previously worked on the outstanding special effects of Gamera: Guardian of the Universe (1995), and Gamera 2: Advent of Legion (1996). Aside from cameos from future Shin Godzilla directors Hideaki Anno and Shinji Higuchi, Death Kappa is ultimately a film best left forgotten about, and most likely will be.

The “wilderness years” saw the release of two further Ultraman films: 2009’s Mega Monster Battle: Ultra Galaxy Legends! The Movie, and its direct sequel Ultraman Zero: The Revenge of Belial in 2010. Both films are among the very best of the theatrical Ultra series, and thrust the franchise’s visuals lightyears forward by heavily combining traditional tokusatsu effects with substantial helpings of green-screen and CGI. While gratuitous green-screen photography can look ugly when used in excess, the vast space opera-esque lsndscapes richly brought to life in these two Ultra-films are a testament to Tsuburaya Productions’ willingness to try new things to ensure their most iconic franchise remains relevant, fresh, and most importantly, fun, without ever betraying or abandoning the core dynamics and conceits of the franchise.

Among these uneven times, however, emerges a diamond in the rough: 2009’s Demeking, the Sea Monster, a theatrical adaptation of a popular 1991 manga by Takashi Imashiro. Despite what could be argued a misleading title, Kotaro Terauchi’s film is a quietly beautiful meditation on the importance and inevitability of accepting the responsibilities that come with growing up. The sea (in actuality, space) monster of the title only appears in a magnificently shot dream sequence – something the film has received frustratingly undeserved scorn for from the wider Western kaiju community – and this is absolutely to the film’s benefit. Demeking becomes a coming-of-age subversion of the genre itself: a kaiju movie without a kaiju, or at least the literal physical appearance of one within the film’s internal world. While certainly not for the average viewer who is simply looking to enjoy a traditional kaiju romp, Demeking is a woefully underrepresented movie that stands out as the crowning jewel of a difficult period in the genre’s history.

It’s worth mentioning that these “wilderness years” also saw Heisei Godzilla special effects director Koichi Kawakita release his short film The God of Clay, while in 2009 the independent feature Daikaiju Eiga “G” saw release. All was not quiet on the Western front with the highly-secretive release of Cloverfield, while on Japanese television, Tsuburaya Productions released Ultraseven X, two seasons of Ultra Galaxy: Mega Monster Battle, and the compilation clip-show Ultraman Retsuden. 2010’s Daimajin Kanon reintroduced Daiei’s stone idol in a serialised television format, with mixed degrees of success.

The wilderness ended in 2013, which saw the seeds of the current kaiju renaissance being planted. Guillermo Del Toro’s mechs-against-monsters epic Pacific Rim paved the way for Legendary’s MonsterVerse, the Ultra franchise returned to television and begun its current successful streak with Ultraman Ginga and Neo Ultra Q, with each subsequent series proving more successful than the last. Minoru Kawasaki also released his second kaiju feature, Earth Defence Widow – but the least said about that, the better. As previously posited, these “wilderness years” can be defined not by their lack of kaiju productions, but perhaps instead by the absence of a steady ongoing franchise to anchor the period, and the inconsistent quality of the content these years did produce. However, regardless of the value of the period as a whole, the ragtag group of productions that formed the “wilderness years” kept the flame of the kaiju genre burning long enough for it to be rekindled with the widespread genre resurgence enjoyed today.

[canmom]

Let’s read Umineko! - episode 3 - part 4

[episode 1] [episode 2] | episode 3: [part 1] [part 2] [part 3]

So, time to continue with the Rokkenjima story. Maria presents Beatrice’s letter to the assembled company - it’s much as before - and the adults immediately dismiss it as ridiculous and demanding which of them did it. I wish they’d actually try to solve the riddle one of these times.

Hideyoshi and Eva, however, interpret it as a message from Kinzo in which he’s saying he’ll give headship, and all his wealth, to whoever solves the riddle. Young Eva tells her it’s their magic working. She seizes her chance.

I am starting to doubt it’s Lambdadelta in her head? Why would Lambdadelta want this?

Anyway, Eva says they should go and ask Kinzo directly. Krauss and Rudolf agree that’s a good idea; Rosa expresses some doubt and Eva yells at her. Encouraged by young Eva, she literally tells Rosa to die. Rosa backs down. Only Natsuhi still doubts. ‘Young Eva’ keeps saying various family members should die forever. No, this is clearly Lambdadelta.

Kyrie stays behind, and the rest of the adult Ushiromiyas bustle off to talk to Kinzo. Well, the usual rule seems to be that all but one adult Ushiromiyas die in the first twilight. Maybe this time Kyrie will be our survivor? But I expect the ‘young Eva’ plot to last longer than this so probably not.

The camera stays with the kids, Kyrie and Nanjo. Jessica and Battler agree that their parents are a bunch of greedy ‘shitheads’ (to quote Battler). Nanjo, Kyrie and George encourage a little restraint. And Maria says they all have to ‘believe’ or the happiness will go away. Believe what? Believe in the promise they made, I guess.

Anyway, she mentions Beatrice, which leads to the usual plot point: asking Maria who gave her the letter. Beatrice, of course. Kyrie asks for more detail and we hit a chapter break. (I wish Kyrie’s voice acting wasn’t broken.)

The new chapter is called The Witch’s Written Challenge. We learn Kinzo would not answer. The parents came back and forcefully interrogated Maria, unsatisfied with ‘Beatrice’ as an answer. (Interesting that, since Beatrice has gone back to not showing herself openly, the ‘19th person’ debate has resumed, though the narrative thankfully doesn’t seem inclined to dwell on it too long).

We quickly skim over familiar ground in summary. The kids all go back to the guesthouse. With Maria asleep, they agree that a 19th person is unlikely, and Kinzo probably orchestrated it. But they agree to play along with the Beatrice narrative rather than upset Maria.

Jessica starts to wonder if there really is a ‘Beatrice’ living on the island.

She might, Jessica says, have been hiding in the forest. I remember bringing that possibility up back in game 1 but the characters all assumed a 19th person would have to have arrived alongside them; in game 2 it was moot since Beatrice showed her existence openly. Jessica’s suggestion is accentuated by a highly dramatic thunder crack.

Back to the adults. They have been persuaded by Kinzo’s lack of answer that he’s put the headship up for anyone to grabs. Eventually they decide to take a break from bickering. The game makes a big deal about them sending for water.

They start speculating on where the ‘19th person’ would be sheltering from the rain. Hideyoshi brings up mystery novels. Natsuhi wastes no time in pointing the finger at the ‘one winged eagle’ servants Kanon, Sayo and Genji. Krauss agrees that it was surely one of the servants; Rosa doubts.

Nearly everything Eva has been in some way related to their childhoods. I am pretty sure we’re supposed to notice that. Anyway, we see a first-person thought from Eva: she had wished Beatrice did exist, but never seen her.

They start speculating that Kinzo had a secret mistress living either in a secret room in the mansion, or in another secret house somewhere on the island. Apparently Kinzo’s unnamed wife used to search for it when Kinzo was away. The concept of the ‘devil’s proof’ comes up once again.

They agree it’s most prudent to proceed on the assumption of a 19th person. Are we finally going to have one where there aren’t wild accusations? Probably not.

As further evidence, they consider that Kinzo used to mysteriously disappear from time to time, at which point their mother would demand the servants search the house - and never find him.

The hypothesis, then, is that Kinzo built a secret mansion in the forest, in which his mistress Beatrice lived, and he would sometimes go to see her there. Krauss says he once tried to follow, but Kinzo was very wary about anyone watching, and he couldn’t.

They conclude that if such a ‘hidden mansion’ existed, it would have to have been built more than 30 years ago, probably alongside the known mansion.

Even Natsuhi is persuaded to go along with this hypothesis.

She insists that it was probably not a relationship with a mistress, just one of ‘gratitude’.

The other siblings (says the narration) then conclude Krauss’s resort plans were a pretext for searching the island for the hidden mansion and its probable gold.

They do all agree that, although the story seems outlandish, it wouldn’t be out of character for Kinzo. Kyrie questions the logistics of it. But, Kinzo does have a lot of resources.

They consider that Beatrice is probably a similar age to the rest of them, and wants to join in the headship battle. They also guess Beatrice already knows the answer to the riddle, since she posed it. Eva suggests, having changed the succession condition in her favour, she will now turn up and “solve” the riddle that she set. But then they decide if that was the case, she’d just steal the gold regardless.

Time for the episode’s first chessboard flip! Thanks, Kyrie.

Kyrie reasons that Beatrice would know they would not happily go along with her ‘winning’ the game she set. But if she had the gold, she could bargain it for the headship.

Natsuhi is like, well we’d never accept that. Kyrie’s like, well, none of us actually have a lot of money left. They argue about that for a bit. But the conclusion seems to be, they totally would accept that. Beatrice’s letter is, they start to suspect, a roundabout way of declaring victory in ‘Kinzo’s game’, i.e., none of you found the gold, I have it, and I’m going to buy the family name.

But Kyrie isn’t satisfied...

It was a heavy board.

Kyrie’s conclusion is that Beatrice would only challenge them this way out of arrogance. In which case, they might still win - by solving the riddle.

I have to wonder... the adults and children are moving very quickly, if in a somewhat indirect way, to the need to solve the riddle. I can’t help but suspect that this isn’t entirely ‘natural’, but perhaps Bernkastel is subtly pushing things in that direction. Though, Lambdadelta seemed to have the same goal, for some reason (to help Beatrice’s miracle by increasing the odds?)

Young Eva isn’t necessarily Lambdadelta, I realise.

The next chapter is called Possibility of a 19th Person.

We cut back into meta space. Meta!Battler is following along. He says that with the information that there could be a 19th person, he can reject any reasoning that says any action not committed by an 18th person must be magic.

Ronove shows up to offer him tea and cookies. Battler really doesn’t like him.

I’ve got to say, the word ‘cookies’ seems really incongruous amidst all this witchcraft and mind games.

Battler complains about Beatrice, and Ronovo agrees. Battler asks why he even works for her, in that case. This should be interesting...

This seems a roundabout way of saying capitalism still sucks even when you’re a Marquis of Hell.

Ronove asks Battler about his thoughts, and we go over the major conflict of the previous game.

But, time for the catchphrase...

Battler says last time his resolve wavered, and that’s how Beatrice got him. Ronove is suprisingly positive about this acknowledgement of his ‘weaknesses’. He calls the 19th person theory a spear, or perhaps a shield. Battler says that with this certainty about a 19th person - the Mundane Beatrice Hypothesis, to use my silly name - he can blame many events on this person.

But Ronove encourages Battler to anticipate vulnerabilities in this strategy. After all, in the last game, Beatrice exonerated the known 19th person, forcing Battler to go back to the 18.

Ronove proposes an alternative. He questions whether this 19th person really exists.

How appropriate, says Battler, that you should use...

What a good couple of chapters! We’ve had chessboard flips, ‘it’s no good, it’s no goddamn good at all’, and a big finger point all in one post.

Battler spends a while gloating about this new strategy...

There’s a crucial vulnerability, though. If Beatrice was to assert in red that ‘there are only 18 humans on the island’, Battler’s whole strategy would collapse.

Ronove flatters Battler, saying it’s a wonderful move. He asks if he can make another move while Beatrice is absent (...where is she?). Sure, says Battler. Ronove reaches for ‘Hempel’s Raven’. I didn’t know it by that name, but I believe something related came up in a philosophy of science lecture.

The Raven Paradox suggests that if seeing a black raven is evidence for ‘all ravens are black’, then seeing a non-black non-raven such as a green apple is evidence for ‘if something is not black, it is not a raven’ which is logically equivalent to ‘all ravens are black’. But, Hempel says, this is kind of silly, why should an entirely unrelated thing tell you anything about ravens?

I hate to say it, but I’m pretty sure Bayesianism solves this one trivially. However, given this post is quite long and it will take some LaTeX formulae, I’ll discuss that in an addendum. The short answer is that seeing a non-black non-raven is evidence that all ravens are black, but it’s much much weaker evidence than seeing a black raven. Let’s see how Ronove uses it.

Beatrice comes back.

Apparently hypothesis chess (as I’m going to call it) is a common game for witches and devils? Enough to have standard strategies?

I haven’t read a story with this many lectures on epistemology since I suffered the beginning of HPMOR... at least Umineko won’t try to make me a cultist, I hope.

This is WRONG. Argh. Beatrice. That would prove ‘if it is not a raven, it is not black’ which is an entirely different statement to ‘if it is not black, it is not a raven’. You’d have to examine all the birds that aren’t black, and show that none of them are ravens. This is going to really bug me. Get your logical statements right please.

Battler can’t follow it. Come on Battler, have you never learned about probability? ...why would he I guess. They go over a simpler example, with a more constrained possibility space, and don’t make any other blatant errors.

Battler brings it back to the problem at hand. Beatrice says, if Battler is saying “if it’s not one of the 18, it must be a 19th person”, then she can say “if it’s not by a 19th person, it’s one of the 18″. True, and in fact that’s exactly what she did last time, so I’m not sure why we’re going back over this familiar ground. Also, except insofar as it uses contraposition, this doesn’t really relate to Hempel’s Raven ‘Paradox’, which is about inference rather than deduction.

They spent far, far too long explaining contraposition for a point they’ve used implicitly in the previous game.

Of course, this relies on Beatrice being able to prove no 19th person could be involved. Beatrice and Ronove go on to provide more examples.

This is very sloppy - embarassing, honestly. Using an equals sign for implication is bad notation. You’d need to prove $$\lnot \text{foolish} \implies \lnot (\text{human}\land \lnot \text{me})$$and if your domain of discourse is limited to humans, i.e. \(\text{human}\) is true, this reduces to $$\lnot \text{foolish} \implies \text{me}$$But what Beatrice is suggesting is that you’d prove $$\text{me} \implies \lnot \text{foolish}$$which obviously wouldn’t get you anywhere at all.

Literally ten seconds looking at the Wikipedia page on contraposition would show the difference between contraposition and inversion.

"If something is not a bat, then it is not a mammal." Unlike the contrapositive, the inverse's truth value is not at all dependent on whether or not the original proposition was true, as evidenced here. The inverse here is clearly not true.

I don’t know if we’re supposed to recognise that Beatrice is really bad at logic, or if the author really thinks this argument works.

Even if you didn’t recognise the flaw in the logic, the simple observation that anyone could “prove” they are the only non-foolish person would show this argument is flawed. Come on, Battler. You’re more sensible than this.

This, at least, is sound, even if the surrounding discussion was wrong in a lot of ways. But it depends on that premise - ‘the 19th person didn’t do it’ - being provable.

Battler comes up with a qualifier: it’s not enough to prove a specific 19th person is not responsible, but Beatrice must prove any possible 19th person is not responsible.

Beatrice is like, sure, I can do that. Remember my red text? She gloats, expecting him to panic. Battler is surprisingly calm. He asks her to give him something in red.

Battler notes, correctly, she can’t use red text to say ‘the culprit was one of the 18′ without saying it wasn’t a witch.

Of course, she could still deny in red the existence of more than 18 people.  And as Battler observes, she could still say there are n people on the island, and it wasn’t one of those n. That would make her win at once. So he’s trying to call her bluff - assuming it is a bluff. If she won’t take those win-instantly moves, he’s all but guaranteed the existence of one or more extra people.

Battler makes a really grandiose soliloquy comparing the red text to a sword fight. He suggests he’s leaving a deliberate ‘weakness’ to bait Beatrice.

I can’t believe we’ve had all this and nobody is even dead yet.

So Beatrice hesitates to make a statement in red, and Battler demands she repeat ‘there are only 18 people on the island’. He tells her what a disadvantage that would be for him. And Beatrice ultimately declines.

How interesting...

Battler follows up by giving a specific accusation: that Beatrice is indeed Kinzo’s human mistress, living in a hidden mansion on the island.

Battler asks her to repeat ‘there are at least 19 people on the island’. This seems like an odd thing to ask: she could decline at no loss even if it’s true. ...ah, but if she can’t confirm a 19th person, her contrapositive argument wouldn’t even be relevant.

Battler psychs himself up with a strange metaphor...

This seems to admit some sense of witches’ existence, but I guess if Beatrice is considered a figment of Battler’s imagination or something... what a cop-out that would be.

Beatrice ultimately declines to confirm a particular 19th person. She says Battler will soon discover why.

I predict Beatrice’s next move will be to seal off the 18 somehow? Ensuring that any of the hypothetical extra people are irrelevant.

Anyway, Beatrice allows Battler this ‘small victory’, and Ronove applauds - but Battler can’t help but wonder if he’s being led into a trap. There’s a bit of a lull.

Then Beatrice says it’s time to reveal why she declined to limit the people on the island to 18. It’s possible that at least one is already dead?

Something else. Beatrice says Rosa will explain.

Back to the narrative. The adults are agreeing to something. I think we’ll leave it there for now.