#justinsmoak

[cheechoo98]

Jays drawing game 004 - Justin Smoak destroys a ball, the Yankees and pitcher David Robertson for the Grand Slam. #bluejays #jays #toronto #torontobluejays #justinsmoak #smoakshow #grandslam #baseball #mlb #yankees #nyyankees #rogerscentre #homerun #art #illustration #comic (at Rogers Centre)

[heroandlegend]

Welcome To The Crew Justin Smoak #MilwaukeeBrewersNation #WelcomeToTheCrew #JustinSmoak #FirstBaseman #Signed #MilwaukeeBrewers #ThisIsMyCrew https://www.instagram.com/p/B6RAU2aA-zk/?igshid=ue84g353al9h

[thebuttonmachine]

The Blue Jays are back in town! And Justin is SSSSSSSMOAKIN! This button was @crywolfclothing’s idea, so you gotta go there to get it for now. Otherwise it will be available on my revamped website when it launches, which will be pretty soon! www.thebuttonmachine.com 💙⚾️🇨🇦🔥 #justinsmoak #somebodystophim #bringerofsmoke

[theteampodcast-blog]

Justin Smoak is playing ithis beat baseball ever... #JustinSmoak #BlueJays #MLB #TheTeamPodacast

[apardavila]

Blue Jays first baseman Justin Smoak swings at a pitch in the fifth inning.

[168six]

被認為休賽季補強不如世仇阪神的讀賣巨人，今一口氣迎來兩位大聯盟級重砲，分別是曾旅韓的一壘手坦姆斯（EricThames）以及前藍鳥強打史莫克（JustinSmoak）。坦姆斯生涯前期在美職表現差強人意，2014年加盟NC恐龍隊、隔年寫下40轟、40盜的超狂成績，並在季末順利擒獲聯盟MVP，2016年

#娛樂城#六合彩#今彩539#百家樂#捕魚遊戲#真人娛樂#體育比賽#電子遊戲#彩票#賓果#老虎��� 首頁搜尋 1688six

[hecatesan]

Tweeted

Hey @bluejays, do you want to trend worldwide? Do you want to boost the Smoak-vote? I have an idea for ya... #BlueJays #justinsmoak http://pic.twitter.com/pzcWL4NxDk

— Kylie (@sarapellow) June 12, 2017

[julianavram]

Another baseball card of a Blue Jays player with my picture: 2018 Topps Museum Collection Justin Smoak. #topps #justinsmoak #bluejays (at Rogers Centre) https://www.instagram.com/p/BqS2fs6gTBr/?utm_source=ig_tumblr_share&igshid=2dyfnfxhyev8

[baseballsisco]

Man, Justin Smoak smoked the Yankees pitching today for two homers, a single and six RBIs. He's the first Blue Jay to get six RBIs against the Yanks since Ernie Whitt on September 12, 1987. #JustinSmoak #TorontoBlueJays #ErnieWhitt #NewYorkYankees #NYYankees #NYY #Baseball #Beisbol #BaseballSisco

[baseballcardvandals]

Run along, Tagalong.™️

www.shopBCV.com

[2coolgq]

#KyleLowry #JustinSmoak #TorontoRaptors #TorontoBlueJays #ViewsFromTheSix

[taskclips]

Remember when Justin Smoak gave this to me? I do 😊 #bluejays #springtraining #justinsmoak #grandslam #gojaysgo

[heroandlegend]

View this post on Instagram

A post shared by Milwaukee Brewers Nation (@milwaukeebrewersnation)

Justin Smoak With The First HR Of Summer Camp #MilwaukeeBrewersNation #MarcoMartinez #JustinSmoakWithTheFirstHROfSummerCamp #JustinSmoak #SummerCampHomeRun #HomeRun #MilwaukeeBrewers #ThisIsMyCrew #TheBrewCrew #Brewers https://www.instagram.com/p/CCa2VDhAsXv/?igshid=glt98c27yqc8

[fisherman2290]

Smoak anyone? #makeorbreak #justinsmoak #seattlemariners #safecofield #10thman #openingday

[apardavila]

Blue Jays first baseman Justin Smoak flies out in the fifth inning.

[devinpolkovich-blog]

Lambo Vs. Smoak

Just a few days until all position players report to Bradenton, and the Bucs seem intent on giving Andrew Lambo a very long look at 1st base.  This isn't the most popular move around Pirates' nation, at least based on a passing comment from my good buddy Vince (the mouthpiece of Pirates' Nation).

"As the summer progresses and we find ourselves in another pennant race, do you want Lambo taking hacks in huge games against guys like Wainwright, Wacha, Bailey, and Latos? ... Justin Smoak would have to come cheap enough that [the Pirates] would inquire."

- Vince (the democratically elected leader of Pirates' Nation)

In answer to the question Lambo or Smoak? my answer is Lambo.  I summarize my reasons at the very end.  Before we get there though, I've got a summary of both players, their pros/cons, and a look at how each has fared in their careers against right-handed pitching.

Garret Jones is in the background...coincidence?

ANDREW LAMBO 6'-3" / 225lbs (25 years old)

Background

4th rounder (2007, 146th overall).  Was ranked the #1 prospect in the Dodgers system in 2008, then dropped to #7 in 2009. 

Baseball America had him at #49 in country after 2008.  Rocky minor league history capped by a breakout 32 homerun season between AA-AAA in 2013. 

PROS

ELITE POWER -- the ISO he put up at AAA in 2013 was actually higher than what he did with basically the same plate appearances in double AA.  And it was a ridiculous number.  Like, way ridiculous --- .317.   No way in hell does Lambo carry that kind of production over to the bigs (.317 ISO would've trailed only Chris Davis last year for the league lead).  But it's still a number that demands opportunity.  Not sure the Bucs have ever had a guy flash power in the minors like this before.  Even “Big Country” Brad Eldred didn’t manage a season like this until he was a grizzled, quad-A 32 year old, and he did it for the Tigers.  Anyway, my point is, that .317 number is pretty unheard of]. Hey!  Speaking of Chris Davis.  Ironically, he’s another guy who came out of the draft in the early to mid rounds (5th to be exact), consistently put up strikeout rates in the high 20s, and was only once ranked on Baseball America's top 100.  And he, like Lambo, is 6-3 230 lbs.  Are they the same person?  Well, no. Just kidding, yes they are.

HIS MIDDLE NAME IS "FRANCIS".

CONS

K RATE -- Lambo has actually regressed in the K department as he's advanced through his minor league career (his 26.4% k-rate at AAA last year was the highest he's put up during an extended stint at any level).  It's slightly better against righties but not significantly so. This all suggests that maybe Andrew decided at some point to go full-Adam Dunn and swing for the fences every time he comes to the plate.  This strategy worked fine in the minors, but of course there's no guarantee it'll carry over to the bigs.

LACKING EXPERIENCE AT 1B -- Lambo has played very little at 1B in the minors (actually got a decent bit of time there at AA last year, but not so much at AAA).  Big question mark.  Infield D is particularly important for the ground ball-heavy Bucs' pitching staff. I have a hard time believing he can't at least match GI Jones as a 1st baseman but we will have to wait and see how he looks in Spring Training.

WHAT TOOK HIM SO LONG? -- There’s a natural inclination to get down on any prospect who flops at some point jumping levels in the minors.  He carries the stench of Andy LaRoche, Tim Alderson, and Lastings Milledge in his wake. So what happened to Lambo between 2009 and 2011?  I really have no answer to this.  But I know that’s probably where a lot of concern is coming from --- if he flopped once, he can flop again.

Bonus Question -- what's his outlook as a platoon player?

Lambo mashed righties last year to the tune of a .353 OBP (not bad for striking out 25% of the time) and a .944 OPS.  Obviously a lot of the success was driven by him slugging out of his god damn mind.

In a very limited sample size in 2012, he put up a .958 vs. righties.  2011 he got rolled over by AAA pitching and sucked against everyone.

CONCLUSION

Lambo is a post-hype prospect who seems to have MAYBE put it together at age 24.  What we do know for sure is that he has power, but he's going to strike out a lot --- we should assume he's going to be up there hacking about 25% of the time.  If he can stay around that 25% level (think Starling Marte), and not fall into Pedro territory, he's probably going to be playable, and possibly even a real impact player.

As we've seen with Pedro, if you can hit home runs it doesn't necessarily matter that you strike out 30%!!!! of the time.  It's possible between the two of them (plus Gaby Sanchez), that we could have 65 homers at the corners this year… and 350 strikeouts.  I wish I were kidding about that 2nd part.

Dudes in with Ichiro.

JUSTIN SMOAK 6'-4" / 220lbs (27 years old)

1st rounder (2008, 11th overall).  Was once considered the #2 prospect in Rangers system.  Ranked #23 and #13 in country by Baseball America in '08, '09.  Never got a long look in the minors but showed flashes of power. 

PROS

IMPROVING POWER -- His .174 ISO was the highest of his career last year.  Not coincidentally, 2013 was his first 20 HR season.

PARK FACTORS -- Safeco is tough on power hitters.  Looking at Smoak's home/away splits, it's hard to say that Safeco suppressed his HR totals by any crazy margin though.  We could probably look forward to another 20, maybe 25, HRs from him at PNC in 2014.

CONS

UGLY WAR -- Smoak in nearly 3 full MLB seasons has a net .4 WAR.  That's pretty bad.  Even if we throw out his worst season (2012...sophomore slump?), we're still looking at .9 WAR in two seasons over 254 games played.  For comparison, Gaby Sanchez logged a .8 WAR last season alone.

BELOW AVERAGE GLOVE -- Part of Smoak's low WAR number has to do with his positional adjustment (1st basemen are docked automatically because of the relative ease of playing the position).  But on top of that, he's scored as a below average 1st baseman by UZR.  For comparison, look at the numbers of someone like James Loney (they're much higher, trust me). So in terms of defense, it's hard to argue he's a sizable upgrade over Lambo.  If you were to make that argument, I guess it would go something like, "well at least he's played a mediocre 1st base, rather than never playing major league 1st base at all."  And to that point, touché.

Bonus Question -- how are his splits?

 18 homeruns, .260 average, 23% K rate, 134 wRC+, .334 OBP. 

No, those aren't Adam Laroche's career averages.  It's Justin Smoak versus righties in 2013.

The comp to Adam LaRoche stands though.  Seriously.  If you look at the numbers from last year, Justin Smoak versus righties is essentially Adam LaRoche versus everyone in his career.

CONCLUSION 

Smoak has a slightly above average K-rate (that doesn't improve against righties), but it is almost definitely better than what we can expect from Lambo.

His power potential is less than Lambo's.

As the other half of a platoon, he is attractive.  The Bucs could probably plug him in for 1 WAR in 2014 without a ton of uncertainty. 

So… Lambo vs. Smoak

In a vacuum, it would be better to have Smoak.  He has experienced a bit of success at the major league level and would slot in ok as a complement to Gaby Sanchez.  That’s all the Pirates really need.  That said, taking into account a few other factors, I’m going to say I’d rather the team ride with Lambo.  I say this knowing full well that he could flame out and be replaced by June.

Reasons why, in no particular order:

Prohibitive cost of acquiring Smoak. If we could get Smoak at a straight platoon price (as we did with Gaby Sanchez a few years ago), it would make sense.  Instead, the Mariners are probably going to demand something greater, and maybe even deserving of a “former 1st round pick / breakout player in waiting”.  I don’t think he’s that guy.

Service time favors Lambo.  Smoak is already arbitration eligible and will start to cost the Bucs as soon as the 2014 season is up.  Not saying at all that he would be unaffordable (unless he majorly breaks out somehow), but this part of the equation definitely works in Lambo’s favor.

Uncertainty principle. We pretty much know what we would be getting from Smoak (or we can at least make a reasonable assumption).  Not the case with Lambo.  Dude could be a 30+ home run hitter in the majors, according not only to his former prospect pedigree but also to the results he put up in AAA just one year ago.

Lambo doesn’t actually need to mash to equal the expected production from Smoak.  If we assume Smoak is a 1 WAR player in 2014, that’s a pretty low bar.  One I think Lambo could approach and hopefully surpass given regular playing time.

-DS