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Pedro's Struggles (and His Inevitable Un-Struggling)

This is going to be a messy post, but seeing as it's the first in many months, who cares?

I wrote this in response to an email from one of my uncles --- we'll call him "Doug".  Uncle Doug is an avid Pirates fan.  He writes:

Any thoughts on maybe batting Pedro 3rd? Maybe he sees better pitches with Cutch protecting him???

The implication here of course is that Pedro Alvarez (.241/.330/.416 triple-slash as of 6/30) has been struggling at least in part due to his lack of strike-seeing.  That is, Pedro see no strike --- Pedro hit no ball.

And further, placing Pedro in front of a mash-hound like Andrew McCutchen would improve his quality of pitches per at-bat.

"This isn't rocket science.  Christ."

Is He Seeing Less Strikes?

The first part to examine here is whether or not Pedro Alvarez is actually seeing less strikes than normal.

Via Fangraphs, the answer is yes (to less strikes).  To translate the graphic a bit, El Toro has a career low 37% zone rating in 2014, meaning 63% of the pitches he's seen are out of the zone.  This decrease is even more striking looking at his F-Strike %, otherwise known as First Strike %, which is down to 53%.  Compare that to a 60% career number --- not good.

"Feed me."

But... Is It Because He's Not Protected?

Dudes not seeing strikes, that's clear.  But why?  The answers here can get a bit muddled.

First, let's deal with the lineup protection idea.  Other people (like...alot of them) have already looked into batting order "protection" and if it has any discernible impact on offensive production.  Generally the answer is "maybe a little" or simply "no sorry, not really."  Here is an ESPN Insider take on it (it's actually about Cutch in 2012), and another from Fangraphs (this one about the old Prince Fielder / Miguel Cabera combo).

I realize that this is an incredibly lazy way to dispatch the lineup protection argument, but hey, I'm tired.  And frankly there's a much simpler reason for Pedro's ball distribution.

The Simple Solution is Best

Here is a chart showing the league "laggards" in zone % this year.  Once again, zone % tells us, of all pitches a batter has faced, how many of them have actually been in the strike zone.

Pedro's 2nd to last.  That's interesting.  Along with him at the bottom is a notorious free swinger in Panda Sandoval, a 30% strikeout guy in Jay Bruce, and a "hacker" in Freddie Freeman.  And then there's Giancarlo Stanton, a big-time strikeout/power guy.

It's really not surprising to see Pedro in this company.  Each of these fellas has crazy home run power (Sandoval mostly excluded), and also crazy contact issues.

So to the question, "Why is Pedro not getting good pitches" the easiest  and most clear answer is, players like Pedro Alvarez are always going to be pitched this way.  Why throw a guy like him a lot of strikes when you don't have to?  Clearly the main priority in facing El Toro is to avoid having him destroy some meatball that catches too much plate.  Pretty logical.

Unsurprisingly, Alvarez's Zone% has decreased every year since making the jump to the bigs.  This correlates with his emergence as an elite power hitter who hacks a ton.  That's no coincidence.

What We Should Expect Going Forward

  Pedro Alvarez is going to rebound, and he is going to make a strong case for 30+ homers this year.  

He's adjusting his approach --- less swinging, more walks.  

He's still hitting a healthy number of fly balls, and they are travelling the usual elite distance (though interestingly his angle on those fly balls is much less pull heavy than usual ... perhaps a consequence of his trying to steer some balls away from the shift?).  

He might have already rebounded.  So when I said before, "Pedro Alvarez is going to rebound" and all that.  Yeah, easy prediction to make after a June in which he posted an .879 OPS, or for the more analytics inclined: 148 wRC+ and .382 wOBA. Not vintage Pedro, but getting there.  Give it time.

[devinpolkovich-blog]

Memorable to Millennials #1 - Kevin Polcovich

Sports are never as important to you as when you're a kid.

Looking back on the 90s/early-2000s, when I was growing up, it amazes me how certain things still stick out.  The great moments, like Mark Smith hitting a homer to clinch Cordova and Rincon's combined no-hitter.  Or Kasparaitis scoring an improbable game 7 winner against Dominik Hasek and the Sabres in the 2001 playoffs.

Even the not-so-great moments: the Steelers losing the Superbowl in '96; every Pirates season; witnessing Jason Kendall's ankle snappage in person.

Don't look at this too closely.

But more than the moments... it's the players that I remember the most. Obviously the great ones come to mind first: Lemieux, Bettis, Jagr, Al Martin.

But, after that, there are other names.  Names that really have no business being repeated.  And yet, for those of us who grew up in the mid-90s, sometimes the names come anyway. 

These guys?  I guess you could say that they're memorable to millennials...and to just about no one else.

The subject of this first article is Kevin Polcovich.

Who is Kevin Polcovich?

Polcovich played shortstop for the Pirates in parts of two seasons, 1997-1998.  Here are some pictures to jog your memory:

Look familiar?  No?

How bout now?

How bout now???

The Polcovich Legacy

In roughly 500 plate appearances, Polcovich posted a -.1 WAR.  Which is terrible.

To hear Baseball-Reference tell it though (emphasis mine):

Polcovich was the spiritual leader of the 1997 Pirates who surprisingly remained competitive in a weak NL central division through the final week of the season. His striking resemblance to fellow underdog Rocky Balboa made his success even more dramatic.

Spiritual leader?  Resemblance to Rocky Balboa?  Big words for a man with 35 career RBI.

Italian Stallions.

Why Polcovich is Worth Remembering

Polcovich provides us a convenient symbol for the improbable 1997 Pirates.  This is a team that went into the year with a $9,000,000 payroll, by far the lowest in the majors.  They had no business competing for anything but a #1 draft pick, and yet they kept within a few games of the division lead until the last week of the season.

This was the year of the "Freak Show", "Why Not Us?", and of course the Cordova/Rincon no-no I mentioned earlier, vs. the division leading Houston Astros.

1997 was such an anomaly that Cam Bonifay -- CAM EFFING BONIFAY -- earned the Sporting News Executive of the Year Award. 

Cam Bonifay was named GM of the year.  No really.

Polcovich joined the team in May, only after a season ending injury to Kevin Ester.  This was rather unexpected.  Polcovich at the time was a little known former 30th round draft choice who had spent parts of the previous few years bagging groceries.

His Finest Moment

Polcovich admirably held down the left side of the Pirates infield for the few months he played in '97 (he actually went down for the season with injury in August) ... but what he really made his legend on was a game against a dealing Curt Schilling and the Phils in mid-July.

Here's the Post-Gazette game story.  To paraphrase, Polcovich came to the plate with a 2-2 tie in the 7th.  Schilling already had 15 K's to his line.  "David vs. Goliath" matchup, defined.

Bases were empty after a failed suicide squeeze.  Polcovich bounced back to work the count to 3-2.  And then (as remembered by John Dreker of Pirates Prospects)... on the payoff pitch,

To the great surprise of everyone—including Polcovich himself—the Bucco shortstop’s swing sent the ball sailing over the left field fence to put the Pirates in the lead.

As put by Polcovich himself,

Schilling did most of the work.  He was throwing so hard. I just got the bat head out.

Or, to translate...

"ADRIANNNNNNN".

The Pirates won the game 3-2 despite striking out 17 times.

We Salute You

Polcovich's home run off Schilling was just one of many surprises the Pittsburgh Pirates had in store for fans and foes alike in 1997.  Just as Polcovich had no business hitting that home run, it's probably safe to say his team never really should've competed that season.  No one believed.

But compete they did.  And that, maybe, is why we remember Kevin Polcovich here today on DevinPolkovich.

[devinpolkovich-blog]

CONCERT REVIEW: White Denim @ Black Cat, DC, 2-22

First, I just want to be clear that this is still a Pittsburgh sports blog.  And a damn fine one at that.

Mila has nothing on this Pittsburgh-themed sports blog.

But, look -- if there's one thing that gets this writer going more than potential Buccos' trades or long-forgotten college basketball players (literally the only 2 things I've written about) ... it's music.

Big music fan.  And I often attend shows around the DC, where I live physically.  So I may occasionally post about said shows here, where I live spiritually.

Who is White Denim?

This is not a picture of White Denim at the Black Cat.  And I'm sorry about that.

White Denim is a four-piece rock band from Austin, Texas (source: Wikipedia).  Basically they're a group of supremely talented, technical musicians who play a wide range of rock styles.  If you put a gun to my head over it, I would probably cave and just label them "southern rock".

Are they worth seeing if the come to my city?

Glad you asked.  Definitely yes, if you appreciate great guitar work.  Their lead guitarist makes things look way too easy... reminded me a bit of Gary Clarke Jr. in that respect, who I had the pleasure of seeing last November.

If you're not really interested in technical guitar playing, I'd probably sit this one out.  They don't write the most catchy hooks.

Take-Away

My official DevinPolkovich Take-Away actually has nothing to do with the band, or their performance.  Instead, I'm going to say something right now that might incite some anger.  Maybe you'll think I'm embarrassing myself or implicating my age.  Probably both.  Jesus this is difficult.

Ok here goes. 

I'm just going to come right out and say it.

... [inhale]

Music venues are too loud.  

Too damn loud.

Granted it's a bit of a crap shoot.  Some nights at the Black Cat, there are no problems at all.

But great googly moogly, when they have a certain sound guy on... Christ.

The reason I hate this isn't just because it's causing hearing damage.  Who cares about that, right?  The real problem is that when the music is blasted at a high enough volume, it's distorted.  In White Denim's case, I couldn't really hear the intricacies of their playing -- it was lost to static and that all-too-familiar ringing of the ears.  

Why did I just feel shame for saying this?

It's a stupid male masculinity thing.  It's like how some dudes might give you crap for wearing a cup during a pickup flag football game or something.  

"Nice bulge."

"Do you always run like that or is it just your massive bulge."

Etc.

Anyway, even if it makes me look like a bit of a stooge, or if talking about it makes me feel like a 50 year old (instead of a halfway-to-50-year-old)...it's time to rock the earplugs in the future, I think.

Cool earplugs, bro.

-DS

[devinpolkovich-blog]

Pitt is Cursed. Is Donatas Zavackas to Blame? pt. 2

2nd in a series of 2...

In our previous installment, we relived in painful detail a defining moment in Pitt lore --- Donatas Zovackas removing himself (and his shoes) from the 2003 Sweet Sixteen matchup vs. Marquette.

The loss that day against Marquette was a harsh one, but it was really just the beginning.  In the years hence, Pitt has withstood losses so legendary and just so plainly vile, that the laws of reason and logic don't seem to apply to this team anymore.

We fans are left desperately reaching for answers.  I think I have one.

Donatas Zavackas cursed our asses.

Cursed?  As in...gypsies?  Hocus pocus?

Ok yeah, it sounds crazy.  But the "c-word" starts to slip almost effortlessly off the tongue when you've been a fan of this program the last decade plus.  That and a few other words that can't be printed here since this is a family blog.

Let it all out Zach.

That tweet above was published after Pitt's incredible last-second loss to #1 Syracuse about two weeks ago...Tyler Ennis released a desperation, nearly half-court shot -- an absolute prayer.  It went in.  Why?

C'mon people, you should know this answer by now.

My thought upon this shot being made? "So Pitt".

"Sorry but I'm not buying the curse thing."

Oh really?

I guess you probably want to point out that Pitt has been one of the most successful college programs the past 10+ years.  They've won 2 Big East conference tournaments, 4 regular season titles.  And......

Well pretty much nothing in the NCAA Tournament.

Of course just because they haven't had a signature NCAA Tourney win doesn't prove at all that there's a curse.  Totally agree.  But it's the way they've lost.  I mean come on.

Let's review.

EXHIBIT #1: Villanova (3) over Pitt (1), 78-76; Elite Eight, 2009

Does this one really need any explanation?

The only way you don't recall this one is if you blacked out afterwards and your brain repressed it for protection.  I get that.  

Really feel the old wounds opening up watching the replay of this.  Easily the best Pitt team of my lifetime... and for it to end like this...  

I'd suggest not clicking this link but here it is anyway:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ie51i-eSVQo

EXHIBIT #2: Butler (8) over Pitt (1), 71-70; Round of 32, 2011

Why did I just do what I did?

Called in the aftermath by many analysts "The Worst Foul in Tournament History," I... well I still really don't know what to say about this one.

Here it is.  Once again, viewer discretion advised: http://vimeo.com/21282810

A quick summary.  With a 70-69 Butler lead and 2.2 seconds left, Butler guard Sheldon Mack commits an insane mid-court foul on Gilbert Brown.  It probably would've gone down in history with some crazy "worst foul ever" superlatives attached, except for what happened next.

 Brown knocks down his first foul shot to tie the game 70-70.  On the ensuing 2nd attempt, he narrowly misses and the rebound lands in the hands of Butler's Matt Howard.  For no reason at all, Nasir Robinson comes down hard on Howard, fouling him and sending him to the line with .8 seconds left.  Inexplicable.

Howard sinks the go-ahead free throw, misses the 2nd on purpose, and Pitt finds itself owners of another March Meltdown (I'm trademarking that term).

If the loss to Villanova was the Challenger Explosion (incredibly tragic but ultimately just an "act of God"), this was Pitt's Vietnam.

If you want me to elaborate on why this was Pitt's Vietnam, just watch the damn replay.  And good luck sleeping through that PTSD.

Fun sidenote:

This game vs. Butler was just a few weeks after another classic Pitt loss, versus Connecticut in the Big East tournament.

Pitt was the regular season Big East champion in the 2010-2011 season and was widely expected to make a serious run at a conference tourney title.

Instead, Kemba:

Gary McGhee, tripped by the ghost shoe of Donatas Zavackas? 

And the full video link... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QxTb225nt94

Do I really need to go on?

All the losses presented above were to lower-seeded opponents.  Pitt is really good at losing to lower-seeded opponents.  Here are a few others that bring back sweet March memories:

2006 round of 32: #5 Pitt loses handily to #13 Bradley, 72-66.

2011 round of 32: #3 Pitt takes a dump against #6 Xavier, 71-68.

2013 round of 64: #8 Pitt gets absolutely buried by #9 Wichita St., 73-55.

So now we're in agreement...

Pitt is cursed.  Cool.  Glad to have you on board.

And that Marquette game is where all this started.

Pitt dropped its game versus Marquette in the 2003 tournament by just 3 points (77-74).

On the final possession, Brandin Knight (the 2nd worst 3 point shooter on the team next to Chevy Troutman) put up an unbalanced 3 that bricked, badly.  

Looking back at the replay, one can almost see Knight instead penetrating into the lane and kicking it out to a wide open Zavackas.  

Zavackas lines up his team-best 3 point shot and releases just as time expires.

Who knows what happens next.  Really, we can only speculate.  At the moment Knight took his shot, Donatas was busy riding the bench.  His shoes were back on though.

It's just too bad the damage was already done.

-DS

Post-script

If you're expecting some sort of proof that Donatas Zavackas explicitly cursed his alma mater, you're not going to find it here.  Like any good curse, all we really need has already been presented:

An infamous story

A villain

Subsequent years of frustration and heartbreak

And now we have our scapegoat.  Let's go find us some shoes to detonate!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ib8s3Ozgccc

[devinpolkovich-blog]

Pitt is Cursed. Is Donatas Zavackas to Blame? pt. 1

1st in a series of 2...

It all started March 28, 2003

It's the senior season for star player and fan favorite Brandin Knight.  Pitt is just a few weeks fresh off an incredible 23-4 regular season, plus their first conference championship win since the back to back victories of 1981-82.

It's nearing the end for Brandin Knight, but Pitt is just getting started.

On this night, it's a Sweet Sixteen matchup between #2 seeded Pitt and the lower seeded but still immensely talented #3 Marquette Golden Eagles.

This one is billed as a battle between Brandin Knight and junior guard Dwayne Wade.  But there's another man who promises to leave his mark on this game.

It's Pitt's only other senior.  His name is Donatas Zavackas.

Donatas as an adult, still breaking the rules and showing who's boss.

Donatas Za-what?

If you're a Pitt fan and you don't remember this guy, shame on you.  Things to know about Donatas Zavackas, aka "Dirty D", aka "The Don".

34th all-time leading scorer in program history.

Known for manic, flying-elbow rebounds and the best 3-point shot on his team (40% in his career at Pitt -- 44% in his senior season).

Lithuanian

Angry

Dirty D's Final Play

Ten minutes into the 2nd half and Marquette is pulling away.  A tie game at half (34-34), Dwyane Wade has awoken from a slumber and dropped 10 of his game-leading 12 points over the opening 10 minutes of the half.

Coming out of a TV timeout, Marquette runs the shot clock down to 8 and D Wade absolutely takes over.  Relive the moment with me on NCAA Vault if you dare (a fantastic website by the way, this clip and about 6 other Pitt tournament games aside):

http://vault.ncaa.com/?game=306SR083_s01&seconds=3110

First Wade beats Jaron Brown to the edge.  Next, he slips to the inside of a hapless Don Z before being tracked down and hauled to the floor by a recovering Brown.  But not without first heaving a desperation, circus shot into the air.

It goes in. 

This is the last play of Donatas Zavackas's college career.

The Rage of Zavackas.

"He took his shoes off.  That was it."

It's only 59-51 at this point, an 8 point lead for Marquette, but Coach Howland knows something potentially big is happening.  He decides to shake up the lineup, subbing in sophomore forward Chevon Troutman for Zavackas.

Let's pick the action up at the ensuing possession (video link below):

http://vault.ncaa.com/?game=306SR083_s01&seconds=3170

The first thing we notice is that Carl Krauser -- yes, Carl freaking Krauser -- is in this game, on the same back-court as Brandin Knight.  I don't know if this is surprising to anyone else, but it was initially for me.  Completely forgot that their time overlapped at Pitt (this was Krauser's freshman year).

The second thing we notice is Donatas Zavackas in the top left corner of the screen, sitting on the ground adjacent to the bench.  Nothing too far out of the ordinary -- at this point, he's just slipping on his warmup jacket.

Fast forward a few seconds though and we see it.  The moment of infamy.  Shoe-Gate.  This is one of Pitt's only two seniors, sitting on the sideline of a Sweet Sixteen NCAA tournament game.  And he's taking off his shoes.

When asked later what happened, Coach Howland responded simply, "He took his shoes off.  That was it."

But what I'm here to ask is, was that really "it", in Coach Howland's words?  Or was it just the start of an insidious Lithuanian curse placed by an enraged and vengeful Donatas Zavackas?

We will investigate next time.

-DS

[devinpolkovich-blog]

Lambo Vs. Smoak

Just a few days until all position players report to Bradenton, and the Bucs seem intent on giving Andrew Lambo a very long look at 1st base.  This isn't the most popular move around Pirates' nation, at least based on a passing comment from my good buddy Vince (the mouthpiece of Pirates' Nation).

"As the summer progresses and we find ourselves in another pennant race, do you want Lambo taking hacks in huge games against guys like Wainwright, Wacha, Bailey, and Latos? ... Justin Smoak would have to come cheap enough that [the Pirates] would inquire."

- Vince (the democratically elected leader of Pirates' Nation)

In answer to the question Lambo or Smoak? my answer is Lambo.  I summarize my reasons at the very end.  Before we get there though, I've got a summary of both players, their pros/cons, and a look at how each has fared in their careers against right-handed pitching.

Garret Jones is in the background...coincidence?

ANDREW LAMBO 6'-3" / 225lbs (25 years old)

Background

4th rounder (2007, 146th overall).  Was ranked the #1 prospect in the Dodgers system in 2008, then dropped to #7 in 2009. 

Baseball America had him at #49 in country after 2008.  Rocky minor league history capped by a breakout 32 homerun season between AA-AAA in 2013. 

PROS

ELITE POWER -- the ISO he put up at AAA in 2013 was actually higher than what he did with basically the same plate appearances in double AA.  And it was a ridiculous number.  Like, way ridiculous --- .317.   No way in hell does Lambo carry that kind of production over to the bigs (.317 ISO would've trailed only Chris Davis last year for the league lead).  But it's still a number that demands opportunity.  Not sure the Bucs have ever had a guy flash power in the minors like this before.  Even “Big Country” Brad Eldred didn’t manage a season like this until he was a grizzled, quad-A 32 year old, and he did it for the Tigers.  Anyway, my point is, that .317 number is pretty unheard of]. Hey!  Speaking of Chris Davis.  Ironically, he’s another guy who came out of the draft in the early to mid rounds (5th to be exact), consistently put up strikeout rates in the high 20s, and was only once ranked on Baseball America's top 100.  And he, like Lambo, is 6-3 230 lbs.  Are they the same person?  Well, no. Just kidding, yes they are.

HIS MIDDLE NAME IS "FRANCIS".

CONS

K RATE -- Lambo has actually regressed in the K department as he's advanced through his minor league career (his 26.4% k-rate at AAA last year was the highest he's put up during an extended stint at any level).  It's slightly better against righties but not significantly so. This all suggests that maybe Andrew decided at some point to go full-Adam Dunn and swing for the fences every time he comes to the plate.  This strategy worked fine in the minors, but of course there's no guarantee it'll carry over to the bigs.

LACKING EXPERIENCE AT 1B -- Lambo has played very little at 1B in the minors (actually got a decent bit of time there at AA last year, but not so much at AAA).  Big question mark.  Infield D is particularly important for the ground ball-heavy Bucs' pitching staff. I have a hard time believing he can't at least match GI Jones as a 1st baseman but we will have to wait and see how he looks in Spring Training.

WHAT TOOK HIM SO LONG? -- There’s a natural inclination to get down on any prospect who flops at some point jumping levels in the minors.  He carries the stench of Andy LaRoche, Tim Alderson, and Lastings Milledge in his wake. So what happened to Lambo between 2009 and 2011?  I really have no answer to this.  But I know that’s probably where a lot of concern is coming from --- if he flopped once, he can flop again.

Bonus Question -- what's his outlook as a platoon player?

Lambo mashed righties last year to the tune of a .353 OBP (not bad for striking out 25% of the time) and a .944 OPS.  Obviously a lot of the success was driven by him slugging out of his god damn mind.

In a very limited sample size in 2012, he put up a .958 vs. righties.  2011 he got rolled over by AAA pitching and sucked against everyone.

CONCLUSION

Lambo is a post-hype prospect who seems to have MAYBE put it together at age 24.  What we do know for sure is that he has power, but he's going to strike out a lot --- we should assume he's going to be up there hacking about 25% of the time.  If he can stay around that 25% level (think Starling Marte), and not fall into Pedro territory, he's probably going to be playable, and possibly even a real impact player.

As we've seen with Pedro, if you can hit home runs it doesn't necessarily matter that you strike out 30%!!!! of the time.  It's possible between the two of them (plus Gaby Sanchez), that we could have 65 homers at the corners this year… and 350 strikeouts.  I wish I were kidding about that 2nd part.

Dudes in with Ichiro.

JUSTIN SMOAK 6'-4" / 220lbs (27 years old)

1st rounder (2008, 11th overall).  Was once considered the #2 prospect in Rangers system.  Ranked #23 and #13 in country by Baseball America in '08, '09.  Never got a long look in the minors but showed flashes of power. 

PROS

IMPROVING POWER -- His .174 ISO was the highest of his career last year.  Not coincidentally, 2013 was his first 20 HR season.

PARK FACTORS -- Safeco is tough on power hitters.  Looking at Smoak's home/away splits, it's hard to say that Safeco suppressed his HR totals by any crazy margin though.  We could probably look forward to another 20, maybe 25, HRs from him at PNC in 2014.

CONS

UGLY WAR -- Smoak in nearly 3 full MLB seasons has a net .4 WAR.  That's pretty bad.  Even if we throw out his worst season (2012...sophomore slump?), we're still looking at .9 WAR in two seasons over 254 games played.  For comparison, Gaby Sanchez logged a .8 WAR last season alone.

BELOW AVERAGE GLOVE -- Part of Smoak's low WAR number has to do with his positional adjustment (1st basemen are docked automatically because of the relative ease of playing the position).  But on top of that, he's scored as a below average 1st baseman by UZR.  For comparison, look at the numbers of someone like James Loney (they're much higher, trust me). So in terms of defense, it's hard to argue he's a sizable upgrade over Lambo.  If you were to make that argument, I guess it would go something like, "well at least he's played a mediocre 1st base, rather than never playing major league 1st base at all."  And to that point, touché.

Bonus Question -- how are his splits?

 18 homeruns, .260 average, 23% K rate, 134 wRC+, .334 OBP. 

No, those aren't Adam Laroche's career averages.  It's Justin Smoak versus righties in 2013.

The comp to Adam LaRoche stands though.  Seriously.  If you look at the numbers from last year, Justin Smoak versus righties is essentially Adam LaRoche versus everyone in his career.

CONCLUSION 

Smoak has a slightly above average K-rate (that doesn't improve against righties), but it is almost definitely better than what we can expect from Lambo.

His power potential is less than Lambo's.

As the other half of a platoon, he is attractive.  The Bucs could probably plug him in for 1 WAR in 2014 without a ton of uncertainty. 

So… Lambo vs. Smoak

In a vacuum, it would be better to have Smoak.  He has experienced a bit of success at the major league level and would slot in ok as a complement to Gaby Sanchez.  That’s all the Pirates really need.  That said, taking into account a few other factors, I’m going to say I’d rather the team ride with Lambo.  I say this knowing full well that he could flame out and be replaced by June.

Reasons why, in no particular order:

Prohibitive cost of acquiring Smoak. If we could get Smoak at a straight platoon price (as we did with Gaby Sanchez a few years ago), it would make sense.  Instead, the Mariners are probably going to demand something greater, and maybe even deserving of a “former 1st round pick / breakout player in waiting”.  I don’t think he’s that guy.

Service time favors Lambo.  Smoak is already arbitration eligible and will start to cost the Bucs as soon as the 2014 season is up.  Not saying at all that he would be unaffordable (unless he majorly breaks out somehow), but this part of the equation definitely works in Lambo’s favor.

Uncertainty principle. We pretty much know what we would be getting from Smoak (or we can at least make a reasonable assumption).  Not the case with Lambo.  Dude could be a 30+ home run hitter in the majors, according not only to his former prospect pedigree but also to the results he put up in AAA just one year ago.

Lambo doesn’t actually need to mash to equal the expected production from Smoak.  If we assume Smoak is a 1 WAR player in 2014, that’s a pretty low bar.  One I think Lambo could approach and hopefully surpass given regular playing time.

-DS