#its confirmation bias abound

[thewinterbucky]

I don't like to get involved in discourse or drama whatever y'all want to call it but i do love lurking and reading all the petty biting justifications and reasons why people think they're right. But it has brought up something that id almost forgotten which is that black sails is continually misinterpreted and by existing within the story so are the characters. Black Sails managed to fit so much nuance and grey area into their story about stories that if you only watched the first episode or season or stopped mid way you're not going to understand it. The show constantly twists and forces perspectives to change and molds the characters and because it's well written the twists make sense. It's a slow burn show that idk forces the viewer into introspection it doesn't hold your hand no character is 'right' or 'good' that's part of the point "we're all villains here" as Rackham says. Black Sails kind of reaches in and slaps your bones around. I know other shows have done this but black sails feels more personal (someone else could probably explain that better but ya know?), and sure it's not gonna be for everyone but dismissing or writing it off because it's not "easily digestible" is kinda gross to me like life isn't easily digestible sorry. People love to hate and misinterpret Flint because he makes choices they disagree with like you can't enjoy a character regardless of your own moral leanings? Like that's part of why it's great who's right/wrong all of the above that's the grey that's the nuance a story is true a story isn't true what matters? But in the growing purity culture and black or white mentality that so many have along with only being allowed to consume 'good' 'correct' media and stories anything that makes you question yourself or exist in-between is Ooo Scary because it refuses to hold hands and lead you to what you've decided is 'right'. Idk critical thinking is a skill that some think theyre above.

[kaidatheghostdragon]

My impression of the fandom is that somewhere between a third and half of its members speak/write english as a second language. But maybe i have confirmation bias and it's not that high. Also, some members of the fandom can potentially be pretty young, like middle-school aged. (Please dont state your real age, especially if you are under eighteen!)

In both of those cases, common spelling and grammer mistakes can be a case of incorrect inferred assumptions that simply haven't been corrected yet. Also, dont forget that fandoms are a place to practice writing, and not everybody has a proof-reader. This is not a professional writing space, so genuine typos (in which the person would recognize the mistake but just didnt catch it) will abound, on top of the poor grammer and spelling.

There are also a number of reasons mistakes can be made, even for someone with perfect grammer and spelling:

Switched letters, like rogue and rouge, may be occurring because of muscle memory. "ou" is a more common letter combo in english than "og" or "gu." This particular case might slip through often because both are proper words and grammatically interchangable.

Skipped or repeated words/letters may be the person's brain working slower than they type, or self correcting in the middle of the mistake. For example, in the previous point, i caught a mistake where i wrote "maybe be" instead of "may be." Another example, i had to correct "were" to "where," skipping the letter h, which happened to create a real word, and caught because it was underlined as incorrect grammar.

Double letter mistakes, like "of" and "off" can be an input mistake where the keyboard or screen doesnt register the correct number of presses/taps (usually missing a second tap instead of doubling a single, in my experience).

Substituting a similar sounding word or homonym can be a symptom of writing phonetically and/or relying on autocorrect to guess the right word. (Autocorrect is usually good with homonyms, but ive noticed when im typing fast, i almost always type "youre" despite knowing the difference between "your," "you're" and "yore," and "theyre" instead of "there" and "their," and only catching it when autocorrect underlines it. I have to rely on autocorrect to figure out which "its/it's" to use because i can never remember.)

Syntax mistakes - you may have noticed that ive skipped a lot of apostrophes and capitalizations. Both are more tedious on a texting app than they are on a keyboard, and generally, their absence doesnt make the writing unintelligable, so skipping them is a common shortcut.

Neighboring letters on the keyboard, especially when texting, can create typos. Im constantly correcting "if" and "of" because i and o neighbor each other on the qwerty keyboard and my fat finger is always hitting the i instead of the o. (I am curious if that mistake is more common for left-handers, as i and o are on the right side, requiring a farther travel distance -and thus less precision - for the left index typer to travel)

Mispelled names can be the texting autocorrect hyper-correcting (not everything is typed on a physical keyboard) replacing an unrecognized word with one the writer uses more often. Also, if something is mispelled the first time it's used, texting autocorrect will perpetuate the mistake. (I see Vald instead of Vlad and Sam Mason instead of Sam Manson a lot. Btw, you can delete learned words by tap-and-hold, or turn off autocorrect completely if it's driving you crazy like it does for me.)

Dropping or adding suffixes, like -ed or -er, especially if the word ends in e like "write" or "create," can be a mix of muscle memory and the brain having to parse complicated tense structures.

Misspelling where the vowel changes (like creator) can be a mistake of the brain parsing the base word plus suffix, without recalling that the final word has a spelling change.

Hypercorrect tense ("writed" instead of "written," "hurted" instead of "hurt," etc) is usually indicative of lack of experience (youth, uneducated, or secondary language)

There are probably dozens of other sources of mistakes, but ill stop here. Remember that all of these sources of mistakes will be compounded for people that: type extremely fast (inconsistant typos, autocorrect mistakes, homonyms), are younger and/or less educated (phonetic/poor spelling, homonyms, poor grammar, excessive slang or accent in misspellings and word use), speak/write english as a secondary language (awkard sentence structure, wrong-but-similar words, incorrect tense or gendering), or are using a less familiar form to write (example: i text posts on my phone, but type stories on my computer with a keyboard, and i have a bluetooth keyboard to connect to my phone if i want to work on a story when my phone is the only thing available, which is more compact and feels a bit awkward).

And even though i tend to proof-read my own posts two or three times before posting, i almost always have one or two mistakes i notice literally right after posting.

Lastly, patience is key. This is a safe space where we want everyone to write as much as possible to feed our hyperfocus addiction, so unless someone blatantly asks for constructive criticism, dont be listing their mistakes on everything they post. Even then, be polite, informative, and concise, and end with a compliment of something you think they did correctly that you enjoyed. Also, keep it private, in a pm or ask, so you aren't broadcasting their mistakes and embarrassing them.

I am begging the Warrior Cats, DC comics, and Danny Phantom fandoms to learn the difference between "rogue" and "rouge."

Normally I don't really care too much about misspellings on the internet. Language is fluid and use changes conventions, bla bla bla. This is a pet peeve I'm apparently never gonna get over, though.

The letter combo "ge" often makes a soft "j" or "zh" sound. Like in beige, garage, general, gouge, etc. But because English has borrowed things from many languages, this rule isn't consistent.

The letter combo "gu" results in a hard "g" consonant. As in guerilla, Prague, dialogue, penguin, guess, etc.

As an aside, this is how you know how to pronounce the two different Gs in "language" because they follow this rule exactly.

Therefore, "rouge" is pronounced "rüzh" and refers to a red color, typically a cosmetic for one's cheeks (aka blush). Also the name of the DC villain Madame Rouge.

Conversely, "rogue" is pronounced "rōg" with a hard G and refers to an independent, uncontrollable, aberrant individual who acts outside the strictures of society, often in an unlawful manner. This is the word I most often see misspelled.

So please remember, if the G is in front of a U you don't need to *guess* how it's pronounced, but if you get mixed up you might end up blushing!

[cfoconstru485]

CFO Construction

Maximizing Efficiency and Profitability: The Vital Role of a CFO in Construction In the complex landscape of construction, particularly in the realm of general contracting and specialty trades, financial acumen is not just desirable—it's essential for success. Amidst the flurry of project timelines, material costs, labor expenses, and regulatory compliance, having a Chief Financial Officer (CFO) can be the decisive factor that propels a construction business from surviving to thriving. In this article, we'll delve into why a CFO is indispensable for construction companies, particularly those operating in the commercial and industrial sectors with annual revenues ranging from $5 million to $50 million. The Need for Financial Expertise in Construction: Construction projects are notorious for their intricate financial dynamics. From managing cash flow to estimating project costs accurately, financial challenges abound at every stage. Here's why having a seasoned CFO is imperative:

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Financial Reporting and Analysis: Timely and accurate financial reporting is crucial for informed decision-making. A CFO generates insightful financial reports, conducts variance analysis, and provides actionable insights to key stakeholders. Their analytical prowess enables construction companies to track performance metrics, identify trends, and make data-driven decisions. The Role of a CFO Consultant for Commercial & Industrial Contractors: For commercial and industrial general contractors and specialty trades contractors with annual revenues between $5 million and $50 million, engaging a CFO consultant can yield significant benefits:

Expert Guidance Without the Overhead: Hiring a full-time CFO may not be feasible for mid-sized construction firms due to the associated costs. CFO consulting offers access to top-tier financial expertise without the overhead expenses of a full-time executive. This arrangement allows companies to benefit from strategic guidance on an as-needed basis.

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[whentherewerebicycles]

[the Atlantic specializes in tech horror and this one is :-////]

“Embedded in this scheme of endless distraction is a deeper logic. The system has come to understand the fundamental value of always reaffirming our points of view back to us, delivering to us a world in our image, confirmation bias as the default setting. This is the real meaning of contemporary virtuality. In the virtual space, the technology combats and corrects our frustrations with reality itself—which defies expectation and understanding, by definition.

I seek. I find what I know. I enjoy this recognition of myself. I am trained over time to trust in a path to understanding that leads through the familiar, that leads through me. “I” am the arbiter of what is real. What is more real than me?

In its basest form—and make no mistake, the baser the form, the stickier the engagement—what we’re describing here is a profound technological support for primary narcissism. We don’t need to know our Ovid in order to understand the perils of all this self-gazing, and yet, we may nevertheless fail to appreciate just how pervasive the social attitudes engendered by this orientation have become. [...]

Self-obsession as a route to self-realization is, of course, not a new idea. American advertising has been foisting this fiction on us for quite some time, exalting attention paid to even our most fugitive and trivial desires, encouraging us to think of their fulfillment as the ultimate purpose of our national politics. But now the scale of the messaging is unprecedented. Technology floods the zone; the waters never recede. In the process, the landscape and its use are entirely remade. The affirming predicate of exhibitionist displays of self-esteem are conflated with instances of political defiance. Self-valorizing anthems abound. “Me” and “my” have been elevated to epistemological categories. And the now widespread misreading of the self’s fragility as resulting not from the contingent situation of selfhood itself, but from society’s failure to protect and recognize “me.”

Accustomed to gossamer-thin ad-and-subscription-supported satisfactions, absorbed and convinced by the moralizing rhetoric that passes off our dependence on technology as righteous activism, we internalize another pernicious untruth, deeply damaging to our social fabric—namely, that the path to redemption and change will be paved by our personal pleasure, pleasure we come to feel we shouldn’t have to suffer even a moment’s discomfort in order to enjoy. To use a beloved locution borrowed from the lexicon of contemporary self-esteem culture, we deserve this pleasure because we deserve better; we deserve to feel good.

All of this points to a new social ontology, an evolving set of behaviors guided by the shift in incentives that the technology has created. It’s the advertising model of thought; the entertainment model of consciousness. Self-promotion, self-commodification, self-marketing—all are now taken for forms of legitimate commentary and critique; ceaseless affirmation of our biases emboldens the strident certainty of our moral positions. This is the complexion of public exchange in the newly shaped public sphere, where ideas are little more than bait for the hours a day of human attention at stake, yet another demonstration of just how much the technology is reshaping our relations with one another. In fact, we are little more than grist for a monetizing mill that mixes, like cattle feed ground from cattle bones, our own deepest intimacies with the system’s digital slop, feeding it back to us wholesale.

In the process, we are being remade by what we consume. In the writer Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie’s words: ‘I notice what I find increasingly troubling: a cold-blooded grasping, a hunger to take and take and take, but never give; …an ease with dishonesty and pretension and selfishness that is couched in the language of self-care; an expectation always to be helped and rewarded no matter whether deserving or not; … an astonishing level of self-absorption; an unrealistic expectation of puritanism from others; an over-inflated sense of ability, or of talent where there is any at all; an inability to apologize, truly and fully, without justifications; a passionate performance of virtue that is well executed in the public space of Twitter but not in the intimate space of friendship.’”

[nomadicism]

With that Hazar and Lotor post, I'm wondering, what are some other characters from modern VLD that may've borrowed some elements from other ones from previous versions?

OH IS THERE EVER!!! (thank you for asking!)

This will be long. Forgive me. Also, I’m not certain of what you have and haven’t seen, so this answer is written with the VLD fan who hasn’t seen much of the other continuities in mind.

Given the length, I’ve structured this answer into sections that focus on pre-existing characters with borrowed elements, as most of the new characters haven’t had enough screen time to give me anymore than some common archetypes to go from. Though there are a few that I have suspicions about but I’m still thinking them over in order to do a more thorough post like the Lotor and Hazar one. I’m also including some larger concepts in this answer because they relate to character elements.

Using a Read More cut due to length and containing spoilers for the DDP comics, Robotech/Voltron crossover. In addition to those, this answer includes Golion, and DotU Vehicle Voltron. Leaving out Fleet of Doom for sake of length.

From Golion:

Elements from Golion should be its own post, and I think that most of them are pretty well explored throughout Tumblr by others.

Gladiator combat survivors/champions made into living weapons.

There are different kinds of Galra with different designs and most of the different kinds have a name.

Sadak/Sendak’s name.

1. Gladiator combat survivors/champions made into living weapons: DotU cuts this out, but in Golion (and this relates to #2), the gladiator combat is used to weed out the strong by having them fight Half-Beastmen. Those that survive are taken by Honerva who uses her magic to transform them into Death Black Beastmen (who don’t look like other Galra).

In VLD, Shiro is a survivor/champion of gladiator combat and was made into a living weapon by Haggar and is an important element to his character. This doesn’t happen in any other continuity to any other character (other than nameless Galra in Golion).

While there is no special name (like Death Black Beastmen) for it (and Shiro is not Galra), we can see that there are other “Galra who don’t look like other Galra”, such as Sendak who also has a quintessence-powered weaponized-prosthetic given to him by Haggar. Shiro isn’t the only gladiator combat survivor to be made into a weapon, Myzax is made into one as well, just of the Robeast variety (called “Mecha Beastmen” in Golion).

2. Different kinds of Galra: We can see this visually in VLD, but they are not named as they are in Golion. Merits its own post with tons of images to compare. This was also in DotU, but glossed over, while Golion gave more detail about it.

3. Naming: Yurak from DotU returns in VLD as Sendak, which name-wise relates more to Sadak in Golion. This is another tell regarding #1.

Voltron Third Dimension and Voltron Force:

Since I strongly dislike both of these Continuities Which Must Not Be Named, I never bothered to watch more than a few episodes of either, so I didn’t pick up much subtext to meta from. There are other folks on Tumblr who have heroically watched these series and can speak to any borrowed elements from them. If two annoying twin girls claiming to be Lotor’s nieces ever show up in VLD, you’ll have Voltron Force to blame. Still, credit to Voltron Force for giving us Haggarium.

Dynamite and Devil’s Due Publishing comics:

I couldn’t get into the Dynamite Voltron comics, but I enjoyed the DDP Voltron comics. I admit having a bias towards DDP since they included Vehicle Voltron (in an interesting plot-appropriate way), so I highly recommend reading them. The DDP comics also included Merla so other than the made-for-the-US episodes of DotU, this is the only other continuity that includes her (so far…).

What both these series (mostly DDP) gives us are a gold mine of elements/concepts that pertain to the Lions, Allura, Lotor, Haggar, the creation of Voltron, and the search for Voltron. All of which VLD appears to have iterated upon and expanded/updated even further (especially with Allura and Haggar). This is one of the things I love about the Voltron continuities, this idea that you can look at any of them and say “hey that’s a good concept, what if we use and tweak it to fit into this new context?”.

A backstory for the creation of Voltron that involves Zarkon and a scientist friend (Dynamite)

The Lions are sentient and can form mind connections with their pilots (DDP)

Allura being the mystical key to Voltron (DDP)

Voltron having a mystical-not-exactly-technological source of power (DDP)

Lotor having a legit code of honor that he abides by (DDP)

Kogane becoming Keith’s surname going forward in subsequent continuities (DDP) (edit: true of Voltron Force but not confirmed for VLD as of S4)

Allura and Lotor having known each other when they were adolescents (DDP)

An explicit quest to go looking for Voltron as opposed to just happening upon it by accident as in DotU (DDP)

Conceptualizing Haggar’s magic as part of an ancient cabal (DDP)

Haggar’s magic/role allows her to sense the return of Voltron/Allura’s mystical connection (DDP)

A Voltron pilot being rejected by a lion (DDP)

#1-6 are self-explanatory: VLD takes concepts 1-5 in different (and IMO better) directions, but these comics are the first iteration of those concepts. I really like that for #1, VLD swapped out Zarkon’s “scientist friend” for Alfor and made Alfor a scientist as well as a king.

#7 Allura and Lotor childhood/adolescent/teen relationship: is (as of S4) up-in-the-air for VLD, but this concept is related to a concept found in the Robotech/Voltron crossover that exists in VLD.

Something to watch out for in S5 is whether or not (if this exists in VLD) the childhood/adolescent/teen relationship was reciprocal friendship on both their parts, or if—as in the DDP comics—Lotor was placed on Arus to gather information and create the illusion of being the perfect gentlemen (e.g. diplomatic relationship).

#8 Quest/Mission for Voltron (directly impacts character development):

In the DDP comics, Colonel Hawkins (Commander Hawkins from Vehicle Voltron) sends Keith, Sven, Pidge, Lance, and Hunk on a mission to go look for the mythical/legendary Voltron in order to defend Earth against the invading Drule Supremacy. Here, Hawkins is risking his career because the Galaxy Garrison didn’t believe that Voltron existed, so the brass didn’t support his mission (this might be relevant).

In VLD, the Galaxy Garrison connection (that we know of so far) exists through Keith/Pidge/Lance/Hunk having been trained there and through Shiro’s return—but rather than a mission—our paladins-to-be go looking for Voltron based on combining Keith’s findings of a power source with what Shiro tells them about Voltron upon his return to Earth, hence they go looking for Voltron via the Blue Lion, rather than lucking out and stumbling upon Voltron as in DotU.

Additionally, Keith’s father (who looks suspiciously like Commander Hawkins) was looking for something—in the manner in which one would look if one’s search wasn’t supported by anything official—which (as far as we know) was the power source that turned out to be the Blue Lion. (I have a separate post planned for our idealistically-alien-friendly-man-of-peace Commander Hawkins.)

#9-10 Haggar’s ancient cabal and sensing return of Voltron:

In the DDP comics, Haggar is the last in the line of the Daughters of Wyvern, an ancient cabal/what-have-you of sorceresses. Through her magic and being the last of the line, she is alerted to the return of Voltron (e.g. Allura’s mystical power).

In VLD, we see that Haggar is also shown with a cabal, but unlike DDP, she leads druids who serve her, and—as in the DDP comics—it is Haggar that is first alerted to the return of Voltron due to sensing Allura’s mystical power/connection to it.

#11 Lion rejects a pilot!

In the DDP comics Sven is rejected by the Blue Lion (revealed later to be due to a defect in his brain); while in VLD, Shiro is briefly rejected by the Black Lion due to…??? Well…Shiro did come back from the Galra with a headache…so…yeah…unleash that meta fam.

Aside: due to the number of elements/concepts from the DDP comics that also show up in VLD, my answer to your question about what I thought VLD Merla would be like, comes from her character in the DDP comics.

The Robotech/Voltron crossover from 2015 provides a few big elements and concepts that appear in VLD. Considering there’s that Roy Fokker easter egg in s1e1 (I’m not the only one who suspects that Rick Hunter, Miriya Parina, Max Sterling also appear in that episode), someone over there at Dreamworks or Studio Mir loves Robotech. I recommend reading the crossover, if only for a few panels of Rick Hunter piloting an actual White Lion mecha.

Comets That Do Stuff. Specifically of the “crossing between realities universes” variety! 

Alfor being more than just a king and sharing an element with Haggar. 

Lotor’s mother being shown-and-named. Even in the prior five continuities, this never happened (Golion doesn’t count here).

Lotor’s mother having a connection to Alfor and a bitter story behind that connection.

Our heroes crossing between realities universes.

#1 and #5 comets and crossing between realities universes: While these are not character elements, these concepts have direct impact on characters (one could argue that the trans-reality comets in VLD are characters, Voltron certainly is). There’s a lot here: “Lotor and Comets That Do Stuff”.  Spoilers abound.

#2 Alfor not just a king, and shares a character element with Haggar:

In the crossover, Alfor wields magic like Haggar does in addition to being king (Aflor = good magic, Haggar = bad magic). In VLD, Alfor is a scientist and paladin in addition to being king, while Honerva/Haggar is a scientist in addition to being a queen (through marriage to Zarkon). VLD expands this by showing both Alfor and Honerva as scientists studying the same thing with divergent outcomes. Alfor = good scientist, Honerva/Haggar = bad scientist.

This leads us to #3 and #4 where Lotor’s mother is not only shown-and-named, but that she has a connection to Alfor.

Her name in the crossover (Lora) is irrelevant, but the subtext that she is related to Alfor, and that her relationship with Alfor soured and they are no longer close is very relevant to VLD.

In the crossover, the soured relationship is due to her political marriage to Zarkon which Alfor didn’t approve of (revealed in Alfor’s snarky comment to her: “So Lora how does it feel to be a pawn?”), and she’s related/family to Alfor (it’s subtle and the podcast with the writer confirms that was the intention).

These concepts return in VLD where the relationship between Lotor’s mother and Alfor also soured, but their connection is through being scientists rather than family (at least as of S4).

The difference in VLD is that Lotor’s mother and Haggar are fused together in the character of Honerva.

Finally, Vehicle Voltron:

Vehicle Voltron concepts require a lot of stepping back and examining subtext because both the pacing of the series and the awkward narrative create inconsistencies in the canon (not a dig at the writers they had a hard job to do). We have to look at what concepts are repeated/hammered home, and that appear in multiple episodes in such a way that they construct a clear story arc while discarding “filler episodes.” The destruction of the Drule home world is a great example of that.

Caveat: I’d be very surprised if the writers or creators of VLD sat through all of Vehicle Voltron, or even watched more than a few episodes of it (it’s a very different genre from Lion Voltron). So, some tropes/concepts just write themselves and are a coincidence. I try not to read too much into what I’ve noticed regarding Vehicle Voltron and VLD, but I do have a separate post planned for Vehicle Voltron/VLD coincidences.

Galaxy Garrison

Pidge has a brother

Throk the Elitist Proxy for the Methods and Beliefs of the Empire

Quasi-Byronic Antagonist Exiled From the Empire (e.g. Hazar)

Destruction of Drule home world and destruction of Daibazaal (has multiple elements wrapped up here)

#1 and #2 (I think everyone already knows this):

Galaxy Garrison comes from Vehicle Voltron where it is the Earth portion of the Galaxy Alliance. It remains to be seen if Earth will be part of any kind of Galaxy Alliance in VLD. I’m waiting for someone to look at the Voltron Coalition and say “It’s like a Galaxy Alliance!”.

Pidge’s brother in Vehicle Voltron is Chip, and in addition to changing his name in VLD, he’s 100000% better and amazing. He’s still a tech nerd/genius, and can fly a combat vehicle. Chip’s characterization in Vehicle Voltron was mostly about: he’s smart, he’s short, and he deeply misses his brother and home world of Balto. VLD has dropped the shortness and Balto, made Pidge female, and their nature of their separation in space is similar but as we know, has very different causes.

#3-4 Throk and Quasi-Byronic Antagonists: are touched on in my post about Lotor and Hazar, I’ve got a separate post planned for Throk. Suffice to say, the writers have had ample opportunity to name-drop or reference non-main characters from prior continuities and—with the exception of Sven and Throk—have not done so. They’ve created new characters, which is great because there is no need to retread what came before. To me, this means that when they do a name-drop or reference, then we should pay attention to it. 

#5. Destruction of the Drule home world and the destruction of Daibazaal.

While not about character elements, this relates to several characters and their actions leading-up-to and during the self-destruction of their respective planets. It’s also entirely possible that this is an example of “some tropes/concepts just write themselves” and the parallel between the destruction of the Drule home world and Daibazaal was never intentional.

This is also a hard one because of narrative confusion from filler episodes in Vehicle Voltron. Following the secondary story arc (which is Hazar’s arc), the Drule home world is self-destructing due to the burial of materials used by the Drule to create their “solar weapons”. What those weapons and materials are is a little vague, but irrelevant.

Stepping back for a zoomed-out view, the concept connection with VLD is:

World self-destructing-and-unstable due to something within its surface that shouldn’t be there.In VLD it’s the rift, in Vehicle Voltron it’s the buried hazardous solar weapon materials.

Leaders ignore the warning signs and continue on as if nothing is happening even though the catastrophe is imminent.Zarkon and Honerva are obsessed with power and research; while Zeppo and Throk cling to their political power. Both are unconcerned with how this affects their people (Zarkon/Honerva indirectly; Zeppo/Throk directly and explicitly). 

Aside: In VLD, Zarkon is concerned at first, but over time, he no longer shows concern.

Wise older men with beards take matters into their own hands.Alfor does so with warnings before the point-of-no-return and then with direct action after the point-of-no-return, while Senator Mozak does so indirectly through his children—Hazar and Dorma—before the point-of-no-return (kicking off Hazar’s “oh shit I need to make peace with these explorers before my people are doomed” arc).

The planet has to be evacuated and the people of the empire no longer have a home.Alfor evacuates the Galra, while the Galaxy Alliance evacuates the Drule.

Voltron is involved prior to the destruction.In VLD, Voltron widening the rift is the point of no return for Daibazaal; while in Vehicle Voltron, Voltron’s final battle with the Drule occurs while the planet is shaking apart.

The emperor survives to one day return and rebuild the empire.Zarkon—despite dying—survives and returns immediately to begin his conquest of the universe; while Zeppo is whisked away to another planet and the stated intent by Throk, is that he may one day try to rebuild the empire (also referenced in Fleet of Doom).

[humanuser0613]

Looking for answers too.

It would kinda make sense...prior to GCFT everyone was just vibing with BTS and enjoying moments. A number of tweets say prior to 2017 everyone was just chiller on BTS Twitter, period.

GCFT was...not an overt confirmation, but certainly enough of one where someone who would like a different reality would feel attacked and, probably, betrayed enough to dig their heels in harder, be nastier, choose crazier theories to justify their own wishes and actions and generally that's how you go down the pathway to a personal hell and self-replicating cycle of insecurities, attacks (outward and from reality itself), continual confirmation bias, making shit up, etc. Reality doesn't match their theories, so they have to make more and more to explain the original theories that didn't pan out...and there are people who are trapped in this and don't use their own brains. Some studies show that being in a cult or conspiracy rewires how your brain operates so some of them would have to disengage entirely in order to use logic again.

There are a few "only shippers" that recognize when information is correct, but these posts are few...and honestly there's no telling if they believe the other conspiracies that abound in that part of twitter.

Realistically are they helpful to the fandom if they aren't correcting the bad behavior or reporting it?

These statements are incongruent, but guess which they believe is true?

2017 was likely hard hitting for them...they saw this happening and then got GCFT

And then 2018

And then 2019

And 2020

We got Dynamite Holiday remix, Memories, MMA Black Swan, the bite happened in 2020, ITS and Taekook convo, etc.

And now 2021 They're resorting to trying to control their idols to give them what they want by begging or threatening.

It's been years of these escalating behaviors and unchecked craziness. And...it's possible things will get worse.

They're basically a self-sustaining, escalating, echo chamber. Honestly the US and the tr*mp cult are just as much of an example of this in real life.

The differences being the lack of diversity and the bent toward violence that the men have in the tr*mp cult...they actually attack buildings because of their beliefs and the negative cycle and cult they belong to. This 6 minute video from The Daily Show (video) really showcases the thinking distortions.

I debated if I wanted to go anon or not because I don't wanna get attacked and I just love your blog I get on here everyday to read your posts and I just... Love them 😍 (excuse my fangirl moment lol) well I wanted to ask if you had heard anything about this, I read on twt a few days ago that back in 2017 there was actually a time that tkkr and jkkr actually used to get along with each other

And enjoy all the cute moments between the members but when GCFT got released it was like there was a shift and suddenly everyone became divided and that's when tkkrs started having animosity towards jkrr and every other ship that interacted with tae or jk. I bring this up because of the recent stream of hate by them towards anyone who doesn't believe in their ship and I thought with how they are acting now it's kind of hard to believe that there was a time they got along with anybody (I do acknowledge that not all tkkr are toxic but the good ones are few and far between lol) so I wanted to know if you had heard anything about such a time that this happened?

Hi!!! Thank you so much for your sweet words lovely 💜💜💜 I'll also just say that there is nothing in this ask that would have irked or irritated me, it's a geniune curiosity and I'm generally pretty nice for the most part 🤣 thanks for asking! Gif not related but one that I ADORE!

I wish I could help more, but I was not actually part of the fandom in 2017. So I do not know exactly how things went down. I do know that things definitely got WORSE after GCFT dropped because the conspiracy theories picked up. Taekook_lives also created her channel right after GCFT and she is one of the worst offenders for cult mentality and spreading misinformation. So I'm sure that contributed and that things definitely got worse. I don't know if I would say that they got along. Or what not. I do know that some of these theories and craziness is also not new and was around before 2017 as well. I think 2016 was when the big hit is hiding taekook with other ships and cutting their moments and taekook dry spell theories all started picking up too. Not totally sure because again, I wasn't in the fandom during that time.

Wish I could help you more. I do know I have quite a few armys who have been around a lot longer than I have who follow me here, so maybe they know better and can share. Thanks again for the ask, sorry I couldn't give much of an answer!

[sknews7]

Spike In Workplace COVID-19 Suits Only Starting, Report Says

By Archive

Email Vin Gurrieri

” href=”https://www.legislation360.com/#”>Vin Gurrieri

Legislation360 is offering free entry to its coronavirus protection to verify all members of the authorized group have correct info on this time of uncertainty and alter. Use the shape under to enroll in any of our each day newsletters. Signing up for any of our part newsletters will decide you in to the each day Coronavirus briefing.

Legislation360 (September 8, 2020, 8:49 PM EDT) — The coronavirus pandemic has already spawned almost 600 lawsuits, with much more litigation on points like layoffs and sick depart anticipated as soon as companies convey again employees and ramp up operations, in response to a brand new report Tuesday from Littler Mendelson PC.

The WPI Labor Day Report 2020, which was produced by the management-side agency’s Office Coverage Institute, analyzed the impact the continuing pandemic has had on companies and employees as each attempt to navigate the well being disaster.

One of many report’s central findings is that the pandemic has already resulted in a big quantity of litigation in opposition to companies, with many early circumstances revolving round COVID-19 publicity, office well being and security, and terminations. However though companies are more and more reopening their doorways after weeks or months of lockdowns, there is not prone to be a reprieve in virus-related litigation anytime quickly, in response to the report.

“The place office legal responsibility is worried, there isn’t any scarcity of legal guidelines or rules below which employers could face claims,” Littler attorneys at WPI, the agency’s lobbying arm, wrote in Tuesday’s report.

“Thus far, whereas at the least a dozen states have enacted legal guidelines to defend employers performing in good religion from legal responsibility for COVID-19 claims, they’ve largely been confined to claims of publicity to the virus — we now have not seen vital laws providing any sort of safety for labor and employment claims specifically,” the report’s authors added. “Nor has the federal authorities but acted on proposals to restrict COVID-related legal responsibility for employers and companies, though proposals to take action have been launched.”

Virus-Associated Litigation Abounds

Though the majority of virus-related lawsuits have up to now been largely aimed toward employers within the well being care sector, the main target might shift to extra industries within the coming months as extra companies reopen below the cloud of COVID-19.

In line with Littler, at least 588 COVID-19 employment fits have been filed in federal and state courts for the reason that begin of the pandemic via August, together with almost 70 class actions.

The most typical claims have been for retaliation and breach of contract wrongful termination, in response to Littler’s report. Different widespread claims embrace incapacity bias, office security, and failure by companies to fulfill their obligations below varied federal depart legal guidelines, the report mentioned.

However because the pandemic persists, employers will face extra wage-hour claims associated to issues like compensable time and enterprise expense reimbursement, in addition to fits alleging violation of the Employee Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act when employees are laid off, it mentioned.

Beneath the federal WARN Act and varied state-level variations, besides below sure circumstances, employers are obligated to offer employees a heads-up about mass layoffs effectively prematurely, an obligation that has confirmed troublesome because the pandemic has pressured companies to abruptly lay off or furlough hundreds of thousands of employees.

“Whereas WARN offers sure exceptions to those discover necessities (most notably, when a plant closure or mass layoff is the results of enterprise circumstances that weren’t fairly foreseeable on the time discover was required), the applicability of those exemptions with respect to COVID-19 stays unclear,” the report mentioned. “Regardless of the unpredictability and uncertainty of the pandemic and its period, and of the ever-changing governmental and societal responses to the pandemic … plaintiffs could problem companies for invoking the ‘unforeseeable enterprise circumstances’ exception to offer shortened WARN discover or to increase layoffs past six months.”

Michael Lotito, co-chair of the WPI and one of many report’s authors, informed Legislation360 that the WARN Act might be a supply of authorized hassle for companies going ahead.

“A serious challenge goes to be with respect to WARN as a result of it is a foreseeable challenge. So, we’re anticipating a wave of these varieties of claims for positive,” he mentioned, including that he believes extra sick depart claims, whistleblower-related allegations and incapacity lodging may be within the offing as companies reopen.

Telework Is the ‘New Regular’

Moreover the authorized ramifications of the pandemic, the well being disaster has modified the best way companies function — maybe completely.

Probably the most evident examples has been the shift en masse by companies in the direction of distant work, which many have been pressured to undertake on the outset of the pandemic for employees whose jobs have been conducive to such preparations even when that they had by no means embraced it earlier than.

The report posited that the pandemic exacerbated “elementary modifications” that have been already taking place in American workplaces, like elevated automation and the changing of brick-and-mortar operations with digital workplaces and on-line platforms.

Lotito for one mentioned the shift to distant work could not abate as soon as the pandemic subsides since “there are some economics that make it compelling,” noting that companies can take financial savings from having much less bodily house to pump extra money into issues like capital investments or higher wages and advantages.

“The opposite factor that makes it actual is folks — folks themselves have grow to be accustomed to doing telework, they prefer it,” he mentioned. “Perhaps they do not prefer it 5 days per week, however they prefer it two days per week [or] three days per week. They need that flexibility, it is interesting.”

Furthermore, the uncertainty surrounding school safety is one other issue that’s maintaining folks tethered to their properties, which is able to make leaving telework behind troublesome for each employees and companies at the least till that challenge is resolved, in response to Lotito.

However whereas “pivot to house workplaces will possible stick round in some sectors,” Littler’s attorneys of their report cautioned that the shift brings a “host of employment considerations” that some have not skilled.

That features various state legal guidelines about employers paying employees again for companies bills, which in a house workplace would possibly embrace web use and digital gear, and tax and contractual points that come up when a employee’s house bases is in a special state than the place the employer is positioned.

“I believe the problems we specified by the report — a few of the technical issues about wage and hour points and people kinds of [things] — they may play out in due time,” Lotito informed Legislation360.

Extra Might Flock to Gig Work

The agency’s report additionally took a deep dive into the results the pandemic has had on the nation’s labor market and what it will imply for unemployed employees instantly confronted with fewer job prospects.

Though the nationwide unemployment price has rebounded considerably from the drastic tumble it took within the spring when companies have been positioned in lockdown, it’s nonetheless hovering at 8.4% with almost 14 million folks on the unemployment rolls, in response to knowledge issued by the Bureau of Labor and Statistics on Sept. 4.

Littler famous in its report, which was written when the U.S. Department of Labor Labor’s newest batch of information was launched, that the company’s stats over the previous few months have not included individuals who remained on payroll however had their wages lower or missed out on suggestions or commissions throughout virus-related lockdown, nor has it coated wages that self-employed companies homeowners and others who present “unbiased providers” missed out on. The agency additionally identified in its report that companies and employees within the hospitality and retail sectors have particularly been hit.

As extra everlasting jobs dwindle, the report’s authors mentioned that extra employees are anticipated to show to gig work as unbiased contractors to complement their current pay, or as a result of they’re jobless and haven’t any different supply of revenue in the interim.

And a mass transfer towards gig work in powerful financial instances would not be with out precedent, in response to Lotito, who mentioned the shift could possibly be just like what occurred throughout the Nice Recession a decade in the past when financial hardships drove extra folks to gig work.

“We noticed it over the last downturn [in] that ’07, ’08, ’09 timeframe, that lots of people went to gig work with a purpose to complement revenue or to be their solely supply of revenue at the least for a time frame and that is very engaging to folks,” Lotito mentioned.

However any main shift by folks in the direction of work within the gig economic system would, in contrast to a decade in the past, run headlong into efforts by California and different states to crack down on the alleged misclassification of employees as unbiased contractors, significantly within the gig economic system.

The Golden State just lately enacted A.B. 5, a landmark but controversial law that made it tougher for companies to categorise employees as unbiased contractors.

The state of that legislation, nevertheless, continues to be in flux. Gov. Gavin Newsom on Friday signed a bill modifying A.B. 5 to permit extra people to proceed working as unbiased contractors, and a poll measure known as Proposition 22 might be earlier than voters in November that might exempt app-based drivers from A.B. 5’s authorized framework.

And Congressional Democrats have pursued laws that might enshrine a classification take a look at resembling the one adopted by California in A.B. 5 on a nationwide scale, a coverage plank that would gain momentum after the November election.

“There’s clearly an actual demand for folks to attempt to get some revenue [from] someplace. Clearly A.B. 5 and its complement … makes that extraordinarily troublesome,” Lotito informed Legislation360. “So, there’s an irony at a time at a time after we want most flexibility to ensure that folks to earn a residing, California is shutting down that potential alternative.”

–Modifying by Adam LoBelia.

For a reprint of this text, please contact reprints@law360.com.

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[michaelthered15]

Ultimate Quest: Chapter Seven - The Badlands

Welcome back to the Ultimate Quest, where we play through every zone in World of Warcraft to determine, through an exacting and rigorous science, which quest is truly the greatest of them all!

This week, we team up with a whole bunch of dwarves to save dragons from themselves - but not before we murder some people for their beer.

Keep your feet on the ground!

(Spoilers abound.)

Meet the Dwarf, Again

Scrambling through the mud and dirt, your heart soars as you trace your finger across an indented stone. "At last!" You think. "Surely this treasure holds the answers I seek!"

It takes only a few minutes to pull the tablet from its resting place. Your eyes confirm what your hands suspected: a hieroglyph is affixed to the earthen stone. An ancient, unknown language that will surely prove of interest to the dwarf who sent you down here in the first place.

You toss it in your sack with your other treasures - a broken chalice, a dusty vase, and a crude tool, gathered more for completionist's sake. "It's a rock," your partner observed when you pulled it out of the hands of the trogg skeleton. You had shrugged. Dwarves love rocks almost as much as anything else.

"Chalice... worthless," the dwarf scoffs, tossing the precious artifact over his shoulder. It thumps quietly in the rusty dirt behind him. "Vase... counterfeit." Another toss, another thump. "Hieroglyph... interesting, but rather common." This one is tossed over another shoulder and lands in a pile of tablets, stacked as high as the dwarf himself, all sporting the same stupid icon. You feel blood rise in your cheeks as he shakes the dirt off the trogg's rock.

He pauses, dusts it off some more. "What's this?" He turns it over, and his eyes begin to gleam beneath his beard. "I've never seen trogg craftsmanship of this caliber!  You've stumbled upon something rare indeed!" He looks back to you, ready to talk business.

The quest, "All's Fair in Love, War, and Archaeology" is a subtle moment in the Badlands sequence, but a handful of lines and flavor text is all that is needed to tell a story about dwarves. The morale? A dwarf does not look for glitter and gold but sees beyond the surface to understand the true meaning of a thing. Vain creatures, the dwarves are not.

The Badlands is a wonderful revisit of the dwarven character that was first explored in Dun Morogh (which we will evaluate later in this series). Here, a line is drawn between the dwarf and the deepest, darkest histories buried beneath the planet Azeroth. Of all the surface races in the World of Warcraft, so concerned with the short term and dealing with the latest crisis, the dwarf stands alone in his and her quest to understand where they came from that they might better understand where everyone is going. It's a salient journey too, given how important the Old Gods will come to be in the course of World of Warcraft's story.

So a quest to steal beer from the dark iron dwarves nearby, murdering a good number of them in the process, might have been played as a critique on the dwarven ego. It could have made a statement about the blindness we have to our own bias, that even the dwarves, so willing to see beyond the surface, are susceptible to prejudice and hate.

But it doesn't. Nothing in the game suggests the writers even considered the dark iron murders as anything more than a given. It's a problem too often seen in World of Warcraft: Cataclysm, and not one we should feel the need to excuse. We know that we know better.

To Save What is Lost

"I am experimenting with black dragons," the goblin woman, Rhea, says. "Specifically, I am interested in how they procreate."

Not much is said by Rhea, but you begin to suspect something is up almost immediately. First, there is her name. Second, there is her manner of speaking - direct, precise. Third, there is her concerns - black dragons. If there is profit in black dragons, it's not obvious. So when Rhea reveals herself to be a red dragon, you are barely surprised. Instead, we are impressed that the writing is strong enough to give it away. Goblin writing really does sound like goblins; dragon writing sounds like dragons.

This questline carries through most of the region's storyline, and it is strong. The black dragonflight, led by the unmistakeable Deathwing, is corrupt, and Rhea is leading an effort to restore them that spans species and eras, starting with the discovery and purification of a single black dragon egg.

It's a wonderful sequence connecting a host of seemingly disparate events - the empowerment and corruption of Deathwing, formerly known as Neltharion the Earth-Warder; the Old Gods that keep showing up in World of Warcraft end games, from C'thun in Ahn'Qiraj to Yogg-Saron in distant Northrend; and the Titans, whom the dwarves have been eagerly investigating since the game's launch, as early as the dungeon Uldaman.

The events of this purified egg story have far-reaching implications, and, to its credit, the Badlands does not bend over backwards to explain it. Like the hairy trogg skeletons in the Tomb of the Watcher, these events simply exist. The player is left to stumble upon their import at his or her leisure, like a dwarf shifting through rocks for that valuable tool.

But again, these great moments are undercut. The entire region is split in half by the Scar of the Worldbreaker, Cataclysm's titular villain, but your primary interaction with Deathwing here comes first as a series of ridiculous, poorly structured flashbacks, and then as a deus ex machina against your favor, in a poorly shot and not-voice-acted cut-scene at the storyline's climax.

But at least that final moment works. In a rare moment, the storyline ends in tragedy. Rhea, and the purified egg, are seemingly destroyed by Deathwing. It's a moment that enrages the player, and rightfully so - but it is immediately followed by the revelation that the egg is saved. Tragedy turns to eucatastrophe in one of Cataclysm's best endings.

Collateral Damage

Many of the regions we've examined so far struggle to connect different bottled areas into a unified sense of place.  The Badlands overcomes this tendency in interesting ways. Although there is plenty to do for Alliance dwarves here, it is primarily home to an intimidating Horde city, New Kargath. And the Alliance are keenly aware of that fact, holding up in a barebones outpost with a nervous pair of eyes on the Horde fortress.

Then, in an intriguing twist, the Horde city is later invaded by the black dragons themselves - and even the Alliance are forced to come to its aid in order to save the egg.

But once again, the Badlands' structure undermines itself. Here, it's sense of place and connectedness is entirely dropped by the goblin town, Fuselight. Fuselight is the entry point for the region, and it is introduced with a lovely switchback trail up a mountain, lit by dangling arrow signs of goblin craft. You are led to believe you are in for something special here, but within 10 minutes, you've left the city - and the last real goblin - behind for good, having done no more than a handful of fetch quests for them. If the goblins are disrupting industry here, no one knows it. Whatever their role could have been, it is quickly abandoned for other concerns. 

They are certainly as violent as everyone else in the region. The goblins task you to murder ogres who are learning magic, simply out of fear, without establishing any history of violence or conflict on the ogre's behalf. Later, the Alliance military tasks you with stealing food and clothing directly out of the ogre's homes. In the middle of all of it, Rhea mourns the murder of corrupt dragons even as she tasks you to do it - the sole acknowledgment of the horrors of violence here. In the end, we are left to wonder why the left hand of the writer doesn't seem to be talking to its right.

There is no undercurrent of criticism here - not even a backhanded comment about the questionable nature of your actions. Whatever credit we might want to give the writers here for this being a role-playing game is discredited by the game's requirement that you complete every quest, even the genocidal ones, to progress the story. Whatever the quest for the black dragons has to say about hope and forgiveness the Badlands overwrites in bloodlust.

Elf Corrupted; In Other News, Water Wet!

The egg quest is a nice deconstruction of the stereotypical evil of big, bad (and usually) black dragons. There is hope for them, after all, and in that hope, we also find forgiveness.

Novelty Games

The Badlands is crammed with bad ideas. A terrible turret-shooting sequence best left on the cutting room floor; three completely silly and ineffective flashback sequences in the Scar of the Worldbreaker; a sequence requiring you micro manage three dwarves that doesn't work as well as it could.

But it also offers something that the rest of this enormous game would profit from: puzzles.

Basilisk Urethras

The goblins do have you punt rams off their mountain. It doesn't seem likely the rams survive.

This War Ain't No Hammer

A goblin faction is named "Quality Asplosions," which is silly but a little too real-world.

The aforementioned dwarven team you work with is clearly a nod to Blizzard's own The Lost Vikings.

And there is no better place to note Martek the (orc) Exiled's dismissive remark about his companion's stories: "Neither of their stories had hot babes in them."

Yikes.

The Ranking

The Badlands is a tricky region to rate. On the one hand, it tells a wonderful story about forgiving our greatest enemy in order to save them from themselves. On the other, it reinforces the casual racism so inherent to the World of Warcraft, and undercuts nearly every great moment it has with misleading or contradictory stories.

V. Arathi Highlands

For all its stumbles, the Badlands does at least tell a coherent story. And despite being very orange and very ugly, it breaks up the action with interesting set pieces.

The Badlands is quite a bit better than Arathi Highlands.

V. Durotar

Yet for all its triumphs, the Badlands makes no effort to question itself or its characters. There is not even a hint of criticism over the act of murdering ogres and dark irons in their own homes. It's problematic in a way that Durotar is not, which takes its contradictory elements and uses them to say something about the nature of violence.

Durotar is better than the Badlands.

Conclusion

We've done it. And now we know:

The Badlands is the sixth best World of Warcraft zone.

See the complete ranking here: https://mikebbetts.com/blog/ultimatequest

[gaast]

Here’s something I wrote today when a coworker sent me a poem he wrote that made me think of a shitty pun. So why not turn it into this?

You never know when you'll get your letter. It can take weeks or months or years. Some people say it depends on the people around you, and it depends on the kinds of things you do. Kind, artistic eyes reading heady, complicated work can help you get approved in a flash. Dull, newspaper eyes reading dull newspaper work can keep you from ever getting your letter.

But once you get it, you drop everything else. I've heard stories of people who were in the middle of custody battles switch their focus to their application. I'm sure you've heard of Sandy O'Brien, hospitalized for a stroke with little hope of recovery, who got his letter just as they were going to move him to hospice care only to witness a miraculous recovery as he set immediately to working to the point where he could fill out his application.

I'm sure that's apocryphal--have you heard of Sandy O'Brien since?--but there's some truth to that, that sometimes you get your letter after something terrible or life-changing happens to you. Even if you've never picked up a pen before in your life, if you lose three family members under different circumstances in one month, a letter might find its way into your mailbox.

It's harder to get your letter the more money and fame you have. Women have an easier time. White people don't. Gay people--it's hard to tell. And this could all just be confirmation bias. "I didn't get a letter yet, so they make it harder for people like me." But it's attitudes like that that make it harder to get the letter, the application that changes your life. Your letter comes--I think--when your insides have twisted into the right knots, when you see yourself as divine body and secular soul, when any job seems as good as any other until you get the one you get. Your letter isn't earned; it comes when everything malleable about you is stamped correctly, pressed into the contours that define the correct shape, lumpen and oblong, that evokes the presence and the absence and the presence-in-absence and absence-in-presence that your license lets you speak.

To get your letter is simply to have affirmed that you are this thing, this organ through which IT can speak, a nameless it that must speak or else die, and it always dies cruelly and pitifully and sorrowfully.

Is it the license that changes you or the getting it? Or does your license get you? Or is it the speaking thing inside you? Or the new shapes you have to make? Something in the mix gets you. Applications are never denied. Licenses are always received, stamped just so, watermarked to prevent counterfeiting, though counterfeits abound. You step out of the office, clutching it in both hands, staring at it in any way but the one you always imagined you would. Your heart sinks just slightly. Why? Why did it sink? you think. You slide your license into your pocket, think about the cop who watched you get your picture taken. Who would rob a place like that? you think. Or is the cop there for the people who leave?

You feel a burden, then. You've got it; now you've got to use it. And using it means using it and using it means speaking and speaking means being wrong and being wrong means hurting but it hurts less people than being right. You're going to choose to try to be right and you will fail and be wrong and think that right is something you can never be, even though you have proven yourself malleable, hot metal beaten with a hammer.

You sit and you'll write and you'll write the ways you always thought you'd write once you got your license but now that you have it it'll all seem wrong. Naive and childish.

I've heard stories of people who wrote nonstop, worked on clandestine stories indistinguishable from those written by licensed people, and as soon as those forgers got licensed they never managed to write again. Even now, I wonder, were I to get a letter, could I read these passages without burning them? I think, perhaps, the only poetry is in fakery.

So I dread opening the mail. I dread reaching the point where the nameless thing whispers to me. I'll continue to write forged writing, I'll continue to betray myself, until--unless--I get my letter to apply for a poetic license.

[cryptodictation]

How to extract value in a very touched Stock Market | Business

Interior of the Madrid Stock Exchange.Pablo Blazquez Dominguez / Getty Images

Identifying undervalued companies is not an easy task these days. The Covid-19 is an earthquake for business accounts and the investment method called value — it tries to identify cheap values ​​based on their future benefits, their cash flow and their debt — is complicated.

The appearance of the expensive or cheap is now pure fantasy, and the art of the analyst is to extract from that environment of great volatility the jewels that are worth investing with a horizon of revaluation in the medium and long term. In the most critical days of the stock market crisis, volatilities have been experienced that are much higher than their historical average, materializing in that the values ​​on the same day rose and fell by 7% with prices moving without any sense.

Since the lows of this crisis, when the Ibex was around 5,800 points, up to the current 7,070, fund managers have already been moving their portfolio in search of more stable, predictable and defensive stocks. Javier Turrado, commercial director of Bankinter Gestión de Activos, explains that in relative terms, value has been behaving considerably worse than growth for several years: “All styles have a place in our portfolios and above all we try to prioritize quality: identify undervalued companies, understand the business, define intrinsic value. Companies that have a good business model, with a management team that is capable of generating consistent results and anticipating changes, and all on the basis of a solid balance sheet with low indebtedness and cash generation ”.

Turrado points out that in recent weeks the bias of the Bankinter Dividendo Europe fund portfolio has changed towards defensive and quality sectors, increasing stable consumption, pharmaceuticals, insurers, electricity. “To highlight some of the main actions of the fund: Reckitt Benckiser, Sanofi, Allianz, Enel. And without forgetting solid values ​​in other more cyclical sectors with companies such as Kering and Air Liquide ”, he indicates.

In this search for good values, banks and telecommunications are not, for the moment, in the equation. In the case of the banking sector, because monetary policy measures abound in their lack of profitability with zero or negative rates, aggravated by a context of lower economic growth. In the telecos, a lot of debt and paralysis of new businesses like 5G.

Gonzalo Sánchez, manager of RV Iberia of Gesconsult, dares to affirm that whoever invests now will come out very well in the long term. This fund manager has carried out two strategies. In the first, with a general fall in the Stock Market, they have invested in regulated securities, in a quasi-monopoly situation, not affected by demand and well managed. Iberdrola, Edp, Cellnex, Vidrala or Viscofan have set their bet together with titles such as Inditex or Amadeus which, “although they are not in that situation, offer an entry opportunity that is seldom available. In the second phase, when the market is more normalized and everything is no longer falling, it is time to enter into good long-term businesses such as Cie Automotive, IAG or eDreams ”, explains Gonzalo.

Beat the index

Interest in investing in index-linked funds may not be the best strategy for these times, as indicated by Diego Jiménez-Albarracín, director of equities at Deutsche Bank, since “good managers can now make a great return on falls, higher than that obtained by following an indicator ”. He believes that the theoretically cheap should be distrusted because from this month and May there will be numerous revisions in the profit forecast. “In the US it is estimated that profits will fall 30% -40%, and if confirmed, prices would already reflect that situation.” For this expert it is key that the volatility falls to levels of 30%, when in the midst of the crisis it has been above 80%. In its options is the European Stock Market and focused on value values ​​compared to growth. Among the electricity companies, Iberdrola, Red Eléctrica or Enel stand out. Also bet on pharmaceuticals as a defensive sector. In Spain he likes Grifols and incorporates Sanofi, Novartis or Roche from outside. And like other experts, and despite its total exposure to tourism, the travel booking firm Amadeus is an interesting option.

Tourism and raw materials are also out of the analysts' focus because they will suffer the Covid-19 break in their accounts. And that the prices have been very punished, but lack visibility in the medium term.

The head of variable income at Renta 4 Gestora, Javier Galán, explains that the cheapest values ​​are those that concentrate the most risk, such as those linked to raw materials or tourism. Companies with long-term growth, little debt and well managed are essential requirements. “You have to look for companies with a business that is resistant to the next recession. Pharmaceutical companies Grifols, Admirall or Rovi are a good option along with stocks such as Coca-Cola Europe, which has corrected a lot and will not be affected, or Viscofan, with a stable business ”. Galán also likes real estate companies Colonial and Merlin Properties, with a reliable income and dividend, and in infrastructure he highlights Ferrovial and Cellnex.

Four bets

Juan Uguet de Resayre, founder and managing partner of Augustus Capital, highlights four highly penalized securities that must reflect the strength of their price balances.

Stain it. “The glass industry is considered strategic, so plants do not have to stop, although their exposure to the most punished markets such as Spain, Italy and the United Kingdom will undoubtedly affect the results of the year 2020. It is one of the best companies Spanish industrials and now trading at a very reasonable valuation ”.

Amadeus. “It has fallen a lot. Although it is an investment with some risk due to its exposure to the travel and leisure sector, looking to 2021 it is difficult to find an entry point as attractive as it is today. It is the global leader in a market with just three players and huge barriers to entry. ”

Dominion. “Company that operates in a sector in structural growth (industry 4.0). Its excellent management allows them to reach a conversion ratio of 75% of operating profit in cash and ended 2019 with a net cash position of 113 million. ”

Merlin Properties. “It is a socimi with first-rate assets and an excellent management team. The high debt, similar to the rest of the sector, has a not very demanding payment schedule (2022), so you can meet them without difficulty. Dividend yield of 7% ”.

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The post How to extract value in a very touched Stock Market | Business appeared first on Cryptodictation.

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[gracedman]

Love and Wisdom

1 Corinthians 13:4–8

Love is patient and kind; love does not envy or boast; it is not arrogant or rude. It does not insist on its own way; it is not irritable or resentful; it does not rejoice at wrongdoing but rejoices with the truth. Love bears all things, believes all things, hopes all things, endures all things. Love never ends.

 A nationally syndicated radio host in the USA, recently wrote of his personal experience at a major college. He was distraught as a young person because he was being taught so many things that he could not accept as truth. He loved his country. It had provided a refuge for him and his family from the certainty of death and imprisonment under the Nazi regime in Europe. And yet at the University he was attending, there was a definite bias and blindness to and against the overall goodness and blessings, his family had encountered here as they fled from evil. As he pondered this strange contradiction an “epiphany” occurred. He reflected later: “From the depths of my heart and mind, a verse from the Bible arose into my consciousness that brought clarity to it all.” The verse?

  Psalm 111:10

The fear of the Lord is the beginning of wisdom; all those who practice it have a good understanding. His praise endures forever!

 He went on to explain: “without God and the proper respect for God, all we have are facts. And the facts are not enough. We need wisdom as well.” And I couldn’t agree more. On another level, without God all we have are feelings, and feelings are not enough either. We live in a world where passion and feelings are promoted as the ultimate and deciding factor all the time. But God as a referee is totally ignored. His values and thoughts are disregarded. Rather what we feel, that is what we should respond to. So, commercials, music, movies, and videos are all designed to make us feel something rather than to think with God. So, we are left with the impressions these human presenters wish and hope to establish in us rather than with the truth from a divine perspective. I have said all this to bring myself and you, the reader, to an awareness. We don’t know, not really what love truly is. And many times, all we have are assorted facts and personal impression that are not grounded in from the beginning of godly wisdom. We can make mistakes that can end up in long detours. Christian people can be deceived and misled. They can make life altering decisions and do so without divine wisdom.

 We can have these opening words from 1 Corinthians 13 on a plaque or a picture on our walls and live as if we knew what they mean. But we can be so off base. We can be sweet, sincere, and, generally, a decent person and still be one who lives without a clue what God’s thoughts are concerning our lives. We can live in a world of conflicting ideas and compelling feelings and still get so confused that we will despair of life itself. Our hearts and minds must begin in the fear of the Lord. Only there will we want to get the facts straight and have real wisdom for our lives. In His wisdom from above, that is.

  Romans 15:13

May the God of hope fill you with all joy and peace in believing, so that by the power of the Holy Spirit you may abound in hope.

  Romans 15:5

May the God of endurance and encouragement grant you to live in such harmony with one another, in accord with Christ Jesus,

  1 Peter 5:10

And after you have suffered a little while, the God of all grace, who has called you to his eternal glory in Christ, will himself restore, confirm, strengthen, and establish you.

  2 Corinthians 13:11

Finally, brothers, rejoice. Aim for restoration, comfort one another, agree with one another, live in peace; and the God of love and peace will be with you.

 When the Bible calls our God, the God of glory, the God of endurance and encouragement, the God of all grace, the God of love and peace, and the God of faith, the biblical author is telling us not just about who God is, he is also telling us about what exactly God desires to fill our lives our lives full of. When God is the source of the content of our soul, then these words in 1 Corinthians 13:4-8 are more easily experienced and enjoyed.

  1 Corinthians 13:4–8

Love is patient and kind; love does not envy or boast; it is not arrogant or rude. It does not insist on its own way; it is not irritable or resentful; it does not rejoice at wrongdoing but rejoices with the truth. Love bears all things, believes all things, hopes all things, endures all things. Love never ends.

 Lord Jesus, help us to move from facts to wisdom. From information to transformation. We humbly ask you to fill our lives and souls with the substance of your life. Fill us with all joy and peace in believing, so that by the power of the Holy Spirit we may abound in love and hope. Amen!!!

[bharatiyamedia-blog]

Aliens abducting AN-32 plane to warmth wave idea, Indian tv information media serves up conspiracies with elan

http://tinyurl.com/y4g3nh37 Becoming a member of the Dots is a weekly column by writer and journalist Samrat wherein he connects occasions to concepts, typically by evaluation, however often by satire *** Extraordinary tales abound on this extraordinary nation we reside in, and our nation’s information tv media excels amongst all of the information tv media of all of the world — solely anti-nationals, Resident Non-Indians, Lutyens Liberals and different such undesirables would disagree — in bringing the true info about this extraordinary nation to their sincere, God-fearing, patriotic, and probably educated, sensible, educated, loving, form and usually all-round glorious, viewers each day. Prior to now few days, this glorious media has dropped at us at the very least two extraordinary tales that might in any other case have remained hidden from us due to the bias of the remaining presstitutes within the (poorly) Paid Media, particularly: that aliens had kidnapped the AN-32 plane of the Indian Air Power that went lacking in Arunachal Pradesh; and that North India is very sizzling due to our enemies, the evil Pakistanis, who’re inflicting sizzling climate right here. They’re clearly succeeding on this nefarious design as a result of the temperature reached a hellish 48 levels within the holy metropolis of Delhi, the place so many sages reside. Now these are after all considerably troublesome info to consider, however questioning tales advised on tv by our courageous nationalistic anchors is one thing solely anti-nationals do, and due to this fact the tales have to be true. Their bona fides are past cheap doubt; they display their patriotism each day on TV, and that’s proof of their reporting expertise, skilled competence, and the truth that they’re usually all-round glorious individuals. Furthermore, they’ve introduced a number of such extraordinary info to us in previous years. There’s a confirmed observe report of telling it like it’s, and to hell with the unbelievers and the haters. Aliens abducting our planes — its wreckage has been discovered so the aliens should have thrown it there — sounds exhausting to consider, however simply because it’s exhausting to consider doesn’t imply it’s not true In 2008, they warned us — and thank heavens for that — that the universe was going to finish in three days. I noticed this Breaking Information ticker on India TV with my very own eyes and instantly spent all my life’s financial savings on pure veg meals with out onion and garlic, a visit to Bangkok, and a visit to Vaishno Devi the place, to make sure that life after the apocalypse can be superb, I paid a hefty donation, as a result of what’s cash, in spite of everything? After that, the universe duly ended because the information had promised, and since then we live on this different universe which, owing to the troublesome religious journey undertaken through helicopter, and the donation and blessings, is kind of much like the earlier one besides that good persons are doing fantastically properly around the globe, from America to India, and the anti-national Pretend Information Media is getting its comeuppance in every single place. Information are a dime a dozen lately. Everybody with a WhatsApp account has their very own info. I don’t consider half the issues that get forwarded on teams, until they’re teams of like-minded individuals whose views agree with mine. Typically we’ve to simply accept some uncommon info, however that’s okay. It’s higher than accepting annoying info from Them that make Us really feel indignant. In addition to, who has the time to fact-check? I imply, there are such a lot of forwards, and tweets, and so many movies each day. I don’t have time or cash for imported fantasy like these Resident Non-Indians who watch garbage corresponding to Sport of Thrones. Why watch imported when we’ve nice fantasy tales, such because the historical past of India put collectively by assorted anti-nationals? Or so many fantastic historicals that return to historic Bharat, from the Ramayana and Mahabharata down? After which, there’s all the time the true info within the each day information. I’ll after all by no means watch imported exhibits on Netflix, however that Sport of Thrones…does it also have a single alien abduction? I do know aliens abducting our planes — its wreckage has been discovered so the aliens should have thrown it there — sounds exhausting to consider, however simply because it’s exhausting to consider doesn’t imply it’s not true. As soon as upon a time, individuals didn’t consider the world is spherical. Folks consider various things in other places at totally different occasions anyway. A Khan Market gangster — this was way back, earlier than he unfriended me on Fb — as soon as advised me that every little thing is a story, and I agree. The whole lot is a story, even science is a story; astrology is much better than astronomy, and its true greatness will ultimately be uncovered together with proof that we had invented web earlier than the Mahabharata period. Now after all we nonetheless have this imported web, due to this fact connectivity speeds are slower. We even have low-cost flights that in contrast to the superior Pushpak Viman use polluting fossil fuels, however nonetheless, individuals and concepts are getting round quicker and a few of these narratives are getting a bit blended up. Some good individuals in America really feel that our ancestors can’t have been monkeys, and a few good individuals right here additionally really feel the identical manner. Some good individuals in America don’t consider in international warming and a few good individuals right here assume the warmth is because of some nefarious Pakistani design. Some good individuals there need a massive wall, and a few good individuals right here, being extra superior, need to throw out all migrants who’ve ever come to India, after which to migrate to Canada or the US themselves. We’re all linked, and equal, and all of us have emotions. My emotions are pretty much as good as yours. I’m educated; I can learn and write, even when I by no means truly learn something past WhatsApp forwards. I’ve freedom of expression. I can say no matter I really feel like. If I really feel good believing in one thing, and shouting it out, who the hell are you to query my beliefs? You will have yours, and they’re all mistaken, you bloody Resident Non-Indian Khan Market gang Lutyens Liberal. Samrat is an writer, journalist and former newspaper editor. He tweets as @mrsamratx Your information to the most recent cricket World Cup tales, evaluation, studies, opinions, reside updates and scores on https://www.firstpost.com/firstcricket/series/icc-cricket-world-cup-2019.html. Observe us on Twitter and Instagram or like our Facebook web page for updates all through the continued occasion in England and Wales. !function(f,b,e,v,n,t,s) {if(f.fbq)return;n=f.fbq=function() {n.callMethod? n.callMethod.apply(n,arguments):n.queue.push(arguments)} ; if(!f._fbq)f._fbq=n;n.push=n;n.loaded=!0;n.version='2.0'; n.queue=[];t=b.createElement(e);t.async=!0; t.src=v;s=b.getElementsByTagName(e)[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(t,s)}(window,document,'script', 'https://connect.facebook.net/en_US/fbevents.js'); fbq('init', '259288058299626'); fbq('track', 'PageView'); (function(d, s, id) { var js, fjs = d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0]; if (d.getElementById(id)) return; js = d.createElement(s); js.id = id; js.src = "http://connect.facebook.net/en_GB/all.js#xfbml=1&version=v2.9&appId=1117108234997285"; fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js, fjs); }(document, 'script', 'facebook-jssdk')); window.fbAsyncInit = function () { FB.init({appId: '1117108234997285', version: 2.4, xfbml: true}); // *** here is my code *** if (typeof facebookInit == 'function') { facebookInit(); } }; (function () { var e = document.createElement('script'); e.src = document.location.protocol + '//connect.facebook.net/en_US/all.js'; e.async = true; document.getElementById('fb-root').appendChild(e); }()); function facebookInit() { console.log('Found FB: Loading comments.'); FB.XFBML.parse(); } Source link

[forextraderpost]

Losers in FX Markets After the US Presidential Election: USD & Gold

US Elections’ FX Market Impact: Losers

Both the DXY Index and gold prices have exhibited weakness in the wake of the US presidential election results.

The US political and vaccine development news over the past few weeks have been extremely bearish for safe haven assets, a category in which both gold and the US Dollar find themselves.

The IG Client Sentiment Indexis bearish towards both gold and the US Dollar (vis-à-vis EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY positioning).

Biden Win Changes Tone of Gridlock

Democrat Joe Biden has won the US presidency.The composition of Congress may be more important for financial markets, however. A divided Congress, in which Republicans control the Senate and Democrats control the House, likely means that the most aggressive stimulus scenarios are off the table in the near-term.

Coupled with news that coronavirus vaccine development is rapidly moving towards widescale distribution, financial markets are finding themselves in quite the ‘goldilocks’ scenario: the US economy is regaining its long-term economic potential; the lack of a ‘blue wave’ means no significant changes to corporate tax rates; and the near-termeconomic outlook remains uncertain enough to keep the Federal Reserve on the low rate path through 2023.

These factors have proven a potent mix for risky assets and a poisonous mix for the safe havens. Unfortunately for both gold prices and the US Dollar, they find themselves part of this latter category, making them clear losers as a result of the 2020 US presidential election.

Recent Developments Bearish USD, Bearish Gold

Alongside the news that COVID-19 vaccinesare reaching promising milestones in their development, optimism has been abound and growth–linked and riskier currencies have been outperforming. Hope that the United States will soon be able to wrangle control of the coronavirus pandemic through widespread vaccination has investors ignoring otherwise alarming COVID-19 outbreak data.

The developments over the past few weeks have been fundamentallylong-term bearish for the US Dollar and gold prices. The US Dollar has been plagued by low rates and a shift towards ‘the carry trade,’ whereby currencies with higher interest rate expectations are favored over lower yielding currencies.

But unlike mid-2020, when US real yields were falling, they are now rising on the back of an improved long-term economic outlook, which has lifted inflation expectations. It’s just that real yields are rising faster elsewhere, e.g. Australia, Canada, and New Zealand. Meanwhile, a rising US real yield environment, alongside real yields rising elsewhere, is bad for gold prices, plain and simple.

DXY Index Price Technical Analysis: Daily Chart (November 2019 to November 2020) (Chart 1)

The US Dollar remains near support in its multi-month range; our outlook remains consistent with the update from Friday, November 20. “Since late-July, the trend has been predominately sideways, with a clear range carved out between 91.75 and 92.74 (mirroring the move in EUR/USD rates, the largest component of the DXY Index).”

Bearish momentum continues to set the tone, with the DXY Index holding below the daily 5-, 8-, 13-, and 21-EMA envelope, which is in bearish sequential order. Daily MACD is trending below its signal line, while Slow Stochastics are holding in oversold territory.

While it remains true that “until the range breaks, the DXY Index is simply playing pong,” traders may want to be on alert for a break of 91.75 during the second half of this Thanksgiving holiday week – thin liquidity can lead to sharp moves (even if they don’t have staying power).

DXY Index Price Technical Analysis: Weekly Chart (November 2019 to November 2020) (Chart 2)

The DXY Index is pacing for its second consecutive weekly loss for the first time since the last week of September and the first week of October. Still, the sideways range the DXY Index has found itself trapped within since late-July retains technical primacy. As the DXY Index hugs the downtrend from the March and May swing highs, time is running out before said trendline meets the multi-month range support near 91.75, the yearly low.

It still holds that “the 94.00/20 area has been a dynamic band of support/resistance since late-July, suggesting that were the DXY Index to overcome this hurdle, there may be greater confidence of a narrative-shattering and short covering rally developing.” Below 91.75 (yearly low), and the DXY Index could quickly see losses accelerate.

Gold Price Technical Analysis: Daily Chart (November 2019 to November 2020) (Chart 3)

The US elections outcome is perhaps the worst case scenario for gold prices. As a result, gold prices have traded through significant technical support levels in recent months, suggesting that a near-term top has been confirmed. The prior falling wedge interpretation has been invalidated. Gold prices have fallen to their lowest level since mid-July, clearing out the August swing low near 1818.09 in the process.

At present time, gold price momentum is bearish – increasingly bearish, that is. Gold prices are below their daily 5-, 8-, 13-, and 21-EMA envelope, which is in bearish sequential order. Daily MACD is trending lower below its signal line, while Slow Stochastics are comfortable in oversold territory. More losses look imminent.

Gold Price Technical Analysis: Weekly Chart (October 2015 to November 2020) (Chart 4)

It’s been previously noted that “a loss of the August low at 1862.90 would be a very important development insofar as redefining the recent consolidation as a topping effort rather than a bullish continuation effort…failure to stay above the descending trendline from the August and September swing highs would suggest that the next leg higher is not beginning.”

Indeed with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2020 low/high range at 1836.97 breaking as well, the weekly charts are suggesting that a near-term top has been established. Further losses towards the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 2020 low/high range at 1763.36 can’t be ruled out.

IG CLIENT SENTIMENT INDEX: GOLD PRICE FORECAST (NOVEMBER 24, 2020) (CHART 5)

Gold: Retail trader data shows 82.61% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 4.75 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 4.27% higher than yesterday and 9.02% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 7.01% higher than yesterday and 6.63% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall.

Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed Gold trading bias.

Read more: Winners in FX Markets After US Presidential Election: CAD & MXN

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

The post Losers in FX Markets After the US Presidential Election: USD & Gold appeared first on Forex Trader Post.

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[theconservativebrief]

Diane Russell, a former Democratic state legislator from Maine, sounded almost beside herself as she stood outside the office of Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) on Friday. She had just shepherded about a dozen sexual assault survivors through Collins’s office to share their stories.

Christine Blasey Ford and Brett Kavanaugh had presented stunning Senate testimony the day before and, fairly or not, Kavanaugh’s confirmation to the Supreme Court largely comes down to two Republican women: Collins and Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK). Nobody else in the mostly white and male GOP conference seems likely to vote against him. Most of them did not even appear to seriously consider it.

“She’s a good person!” Russell said emphatically of the Maine senator. They might disagree on every matter of public policy, she said, but she still believed truly and deeply that Collins must be furious about the allegations against Kavanaugh and how Senate Republicans have handled them.

Protesters gather in Sen. Susan Collins’s (R-ME) office in Portland, Maine, on September 28, 2018. Sarah Rice/Getty Images

As the Trump White House and Senate Republican leaders fight desperately to hold GOP senators in line to confirm Kavanaugh, Collins is once again the fulcrum on which the fate of the country rests.

Nobody is sure what Collins is going to do. On Friday afternoon, she joined with Arizona Sen. Jeff Flake’s call for further FBI investigation into the allegations against Kavanaugh before a Senate floor vote is held. But she made no further comment on his nomination or how she would ultimately vote on his confirmation.

Collins is deliberate, she’s reserved, and she never tips her hand. She makes her own choices.

“Never play poker with Susan Collins,” Russell said.

Collins always finds herself in the middle of the Senate’s most potent dramas. She, along with Murkowski and Sen. John McCain, now deceased, was one of the three Republicans to stop Obamacare repeal in its tracks. She became something of a progressive icon, with takes abounding after the vote that it was truly the two women senators who had made McCain’s unforgettable thumbs-down possible.

Progressives hoped to replicate the success on the Republican tax bill, but Collins ultimately became a final swing vote in favor of it.

Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME), Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), and Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-TN) arrive for a Senate Republican policy luncheon just after the House had passed the tax overhaul bill and before the Senate was expected to vote, on December 19, 2017. Alex Wong/Getty Images

Russell, who served eight years in the Maine House and ran for governor this year but garnered little support, isn’t surprised Collins has taken this long to decide what to do. As she stood outside her senator’s office, she was sympathetic to the position Collins found herself in: as one of the few Republican women in the Senate, who bears all the burden in a drama that hinges on very difficult questions about memory, presumptions of innocence, and how victims of assault should be treated.

“She often is the last person to make a choice, and whether she’s genuinely weighing her options and looking at all the facts or if she’s doing that because it’s convenient, that’s not for me to speculate,” Russell said. “What I will say is, I have looked her in the eye, and while we disagree on a whole host of issues, I know from the bottom of my toes she cares deeply about Maine and about women. I am holding out hope she’ll do the right thing.“

So is Tamara Field, a 50-year-old from Portland who had just come down to Washington, DC, on Thursday night. Field told me she is a rape survivor who suffered an attack earlier this summer after meeting a man through an online dating app.

She had said in Collins’s office that she didn’t want her 10-year-old daughter “to live in a world where reporting is a source of shame.” She told me she wants to believe Collins will stop Kavanaugh’s nomination, because the alternative is almost too much to bear.

“If she votes yes, it’s a complete and total betrayal of the women of the state of Maine and the women of America,” Field said. “This isn’t court. The truth is, in a court of law, he would never be convicted. There’s not enough evidence, as in most rape cases. However, he has called this a sham. He has suggested it’s a conspiracy hatched by Democrats.”

Phoebe Suva (left) of Portland, Maine, tells her story of being sexually assaulted as she joins dozens of other protesters, including Actress Alyssa Milano, to demonstrate against the appointment of Supreme Court nominee Judge Brett Kavanaugh outside Sen. Susan Collins’s (R-ME) office on September 26, 2018. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

“This is a sexual assault allegation,” she continued, “and that’s how he has decided to respond: with anger, with acidity, with ugliness. That alone should convince Sen. Collins he is not fit to sit on any bench.”

I have spoken with current Senate Republican aides, former Senate Democratic staffers, protesters outside Collins’s office, and activists and political observers back in Maine to get a full picture of the lawmaker, who has been in the Senate since 1997. I followed her closely myself during the Obamacare repeal debate.

A few things shone through, no matter what bias people brought with them: Collins has built a reputation of integrity. She genuinely feels strongly about women’s rights. She is deliberate and wants to gather all the information she can before making a decision on a difficult issue. She earnestly believes in bipartisanship and civil discourse.

“She fits a certain Maine model,” said Amy Fried, a University of Maine political science professor who has lived in the state for 20 years. “An individual who shows a great deal of civility, who shows great seriousness … and some modicum of independence. Or people think of that person as independent.”

Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) walks outside the office of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell on September 25, 2018. Win McNamee/Getty Images

Jim Manley, a former aide to ex-Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid, pointed to one famous episode during the tax debate. Collins hosted a bipartisan group of senators in her office and they passed around a “talking stick” as a symbolic totem of good-faith debate as each senator shared his or her views on the legislation.

It was “utterly meaningless in the end,” Manley said. Collins also secured a deal from Republican leader Mitch McConnell to bring up an Obamacare stabilization bill as she agreed to vote for the tax bill. That deal later fell apart, and no stabilization bill was passed. (Republicans blame the Democrats.) She was looking for a middle ground that isn’t anywhere to be found in modern-day Washington.

“I think in most or all the situations, she honestly thought she had a chance to pull it off, and she misread the situation,” Manley said.

In hyper-polarized times, the Maine senator is inevitably one of the true swing votes on any serious issue. About 45 or more Republican senators would vote for just about anything that President Donald Trump and Senate GOP leaders asked them to. Collins is one of the few who has the history, the political beliefs, and the standing to make her own choice.

President Trump, flanked by Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) and Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), speaks with Republican senators about health care in the East Room of the White House on, June 27, 2017. Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post via Getty Images

She is left with a true tug-of-war in making her decision on Kavanaugh. On the one hand, part of her independent image is being pro-choice and strongly supportive of women’s rights even when the rest of the Republican Party is not. (Kavanaugh is thought to be opposed to abortion rights, though Collins has insisted otherwise.) She won two-thirds of women and 31 percent of Democrats in her 2014 re-election, according to a CNN exit poll.

But she also has said in the past she believes presidents have a right to name their own Supreme Court nominees. She is very focused on credentials, and Kavanaugh’s are solid. She is also very concerned with Senate procedure, and Kavanaugh’s confirmation has been anything but regular order.

“All of those brands are threatened by voting for Kavanaugh,” Fried said. On the other hand, “it would be a huge step for her not to support her president’s nominee.”

Collins reportedly set aside the whole day to watch Thursday’s riveting Ford-Kavanaugh hearing. She met Friday with five sexual assault victims from Maine. She has spent the last two weeks as the most sought-after senator in Washington — after a Wednesday Senate GOP lunch, some male senators formed a wall of bodies around Collins so she could duck onto the Senate floor without taking questions.

A final decision about Kavanaugh will inevitably be read as a ruling on one fundamental question, described by Sen. Murkowski to the New York Times: Is a woman who says she has been sexually assaulted, and that with 100 percent certainty her assailant was Kavanaugh, to be believed?

Yvonne Berry (left) and Wendy Keeler gather with protestors across the street from Sen. Susan Collins’ office in Portland, Maine, to urge Sen. Collins to vote no on the confirmation of Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh on September 28, 2018. Sarah Rice/Getty Images

It’s an unenviable and unfair position — again, 40-plus Republican men are prepared to support Kavanaugh’s ascension to the Supreme Court, while two GOP women are left undecided. But it’s the way it is.

Russell, with protesters still lingering outside Collins’s office, hoped Collins would be true to what she described as a long history of strong Maine women. Collins is known to revere Margaret Chase Smith, a Republican senator from Maine for much of the mid-20th century who fought McCarthyism, and her former Senate colleague from the state, Olympia Snowe.

“We are so vehemently proud of the ladies from Maine. It is unbelievable,” Russell said. “She is part of that. It’s not about her legacy. It’s about the legacy of women in Maine that’s in the balance. I know what it was like growing up and it wasn’t a question: I could do anything I wanted, because I was a girl from Maine.”

But there is something about Collins and Snowe that people might forget, now that the latter has left the Senate and Collins is the only Maine Republican left to carry on tradition.

“For a long time, people thought of her as being above the party,” Fried told me. “But compared to Olympia Snowe, when you look at when they served together, she was more likely to be voting with Republicans.”

That is the impossible calculus for her as the world waits for Susan Collins’s decision.

Almost everyone I talked to, from senior Republican aides to progressive activists, seemed sympathetic to Collins’s position. But the reality is that it will likely rest on her shoulders, as well as those of Murkowski, whether Brett Kavanaugh is elevated to the Supreme Court.

On Friday morning, protesters and sexual assault survivors were holding out hope. They believed Collins would do the right thing, in their eyes, and reject Kavanaugh.

Russell said it one more time for good measure. “She’s a good person.”

Kali Bird Isis of Portland participates in a sit-in in Sen. Susan Collins’ office on September 28, 2018 in Portland, Maine. Sarah Rice/Getty Images

Original Source -> Susan Collins, one of the most important swing votes on Kavanaugh’s nomination, explained

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