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[thetaplowgroup]

Asia Business Report - July 2021

Australia

The economic recovery in Australia is stronger than earlier expected and is forecasted to continue. The outlook for investment has improved and household and business balance sheets are generally in good shape. National income is also being supported by the high prices for commodity exports. Domestic financial conditions are very supportive, and the exchange rate has depreciated a little recently. The labour market has continued to recover faster than expected.

The unemployment rate declined further to 5.1 per cent in May and more Australians have jobs than before the pandemic. There has also been a welcome decline in underemployment and labour force participation is around record highs. Job vacancies are high, and more firms are reporting shortages of labour, particularly in areas affected by the closure of Australia's international borders.

Despite the strong recovery in jobs and reports of labour shortages, inflation and wage outcomes remain subdued. The bond purchase program is playing an important role in supporting the Australian economy. Housing markets have continued to strengthen, with prices rising in all major markets. *Source Reserve Bank of Australia

Contact: Ian Stacy, Managing Partner, Australia, E: istacy@taplowgroup.com.au

China

People Bank of China reduced the reserve rate of what commercial banks must hold. This policy is good news to reduce the financing costs of the small and middle size enterprises suffered from Covid-19 impact. The stock market is also welcome this change.

Beijing imposed strict data security measures for the overseas listing companies from China. Didi, the recently listing company in US has been punished for the invasion personal information. The APP is prohibited to be downloaded during the investigation. Beijing is

becoming very serious about the personal information protection and county’s data security and impose the strict measures Global Executive Managemnet Consultants

China’s manufacturing PMI and new export orders slightly declined in June and could rebound in July. China’s official manufacturing PMI declined to 50.9 in June from 51.0 in May, slightly above market expectations. The new export orders continued to edge down to 48.1 in June, partly caused by congestion at some South China ports. Due to the resurgence of Covid-19 in Guangdong and related tightening in social distancing rules, the official non-manufacturing PMI fell to a weaker-than-expected 53.5 in June.

Thanks to the release of pent-up demand following the containment of the latest wave of Covid-19, the recovery of some South China ports is expected. It is projected that PMI were solid in Q2 and could rebound slightly in July.

China current account has surged and would not last forever. Thanks to its successful containment of Covid-19, massive policy stimulus in the developed economies China’s current account (CA) surplus has surged in the past year, foreign exchange deposits have risen significantly and RMB has appreciated as well. However, good times do not tend to last forever.

Contact: Derek Zhang, Managing Partner, China. E: derek.zhang@chinadox.com

India

Moody's downgraded India's growth projection to 9.6% for 2021, from its earlier estimate of 13.9%, and said faster vaccination will be paramount in restricting economic losses. Earlier, Moody's had projected India to clock a 9.3 per cent growth in the current fiscal ending March 2022, but a severe second COVID wave has increased risks to India's credit profile and rated entities. Mobility and economic activity will likely accelerate in the second half of the year as the pace of vaccinations pick up. The government has announced a strategy to centralise vaccine procurement in order to boost vaccinations, which if successful, will support the economic recovery.

Ratings agency ICRA maintained its growth forecast for two-wheeler sales at 12-14% for the ongoing fiscal, despite the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic hitting non-metro and hinterlands that dampened rural consumer sentiments. A low base, healthy rural cash flows, and continued preference for personal mobility would support two-wheeler demand in the festive season, ICRA said in a statement. Expectations of a healthy agricultural production, timely arrival of the monsoons, a hike in minimum support prices for crops and other income support schemes by the government are likely to help revive rural demand sentiments and support the two-wheeler offtake in the festive season.

German consumer electronics brand Blaupunkt is re-entering the Indian market through an exclusive licensing agreement with home-grown contract manufacturer Super Plastronics. As per the licensing contract, Blaupunkt’ s manufacturing, branding, designing, packaging, and retailing supply chain will be handled by Super Plastronics. The products will be available to consumers on the e-commerce platform. Super Plastronics will invest more than $30 Million in Blaupunkt in the next three years in technology & innovation.

With Global Steel Player ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel, India’s play in the steel market is set to get bigger. The company is busy making plans that would increase its capacity by five million tonnes in the next three years while laying building blocks for the phase after.

The Chief Executive Officer for ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel India (AM/NS India) said the ground-breaking for the expansion to 14 million tonnes was expected this year. In the next phase, they will take it up to 18 million tonnes. The two phases of expansion are expected to cost more than $7000 Million

Contact: Sangeeta Sabharwal, Managing Partner, India E: sangeeta.sabharwal@taplowgroupindia.com

New Zealand

New Zealand is well on the way to economic recovery after the damage wrought by COVID-19. Going into the crisis, every economic forecaster was expecting a large and drawn-out recession, with the possibility of deflation, and a 10% unemployment rate, and an economy that would struggle to get back to pre-COVID levels of output. What has occurred is that GDP has recovered spectacularly, and recent labour market data showed that New Zealand’s labour market is far closer to full employment than anyone could have hoped for.

Unlike some of our trading partners, such as the US and Australia, New Zealand did not see a large drop in employment as a result of lockdown in second quarter 2020. Some people did unfortunately lose their jobs, but in aggregate, the damage was limited. That made it much easier to switch the economy back on after lockdown, and we have seen employment in New Zealand actually increase above pre-COVID levels in recent months ceo certification .

For better or worse, the housing market has been the key driver of the economic rebound from lockdown. Demand for housing is still well ahead of supply and this has given the construction sector an almost overwhelmingly large pipeline of work. The crisis has had an impact on the supply side of the economy. The sectors that propelled New Zealand’s economic recovery, in particular construction, are running into serious capacity constraints. One reason is the disruption to global supply chains caused by COVID-19. Firms and tradespeople in New Zealand are finding it harder to import the goods they need, leading to cost overruns and delays.

The labour market is very tight, and firms are struggling to find workers they need. Many of the jobs lost due to COVID were face-to-face industries like tourism and hospitality. With the borders closed, the latter industry is struggling to find the workers they need to be able to provide the service necessary. Some have elected to reduce hours of opening or in one case close down their restaurants for a period of two weeks to be able to give their workforce a break from the demands of being over worked as a result of the shortage. A closed border will mean labour supply is fairly unresponsive, so it is likely that we will see stronger wage growth rather than strong employment growth, as firm poach off each other. It is expected that New Zealand’s labour supply will get a small bump once borders reopen and net migration starts to lift.

In New Zealand, it appears that foregone international holiday spending has been finding its way into house renovations, spas, cars and boats. Supply chain issues means that there can be a wait for these goods e.g., up to 3-4 months wait for a new car due to the need to import these into New Zealand.

New Zealand now has a travel bubble with both Australia and the Cook Islands, though the former has had a wobbly period since being introduced with a number of temporary border closures being imposed by the New Zealand government with Australia states as a result of community outbreaks, especially since the Delta variant has become more and more widespread. The deteriorating situation in New South Wales (in particular Sydney) an latterly Victoria could see the travel bubble with these states closed for some time.

While New Zealand led the world on its initial response to COVID-19, we are lagging behind on vaccinations. As of writing, only 10% of the population has been fully vaccinated. In New Zealand the Pfizer/BioNTech is being used. There are back-up vaccines available should these be needed. A major surge in vaccinations has been announced by the New Zealand government which should see this rate increase significantly over the coming months. Source– ANZ Bank Quarterly Economic Outlook.

Contact: Graeme Sandri, Managing Partner, New Zealand, E: graeme@swr.nz

Singapore

Singapore's economy contracted in the second quarter after battling new outbreaks of COVID-19, but economists expect it to get back on track quickly as global growth picks up and vaccination rates rise. The city state's economy still showed the best growth in more than a decade on a year-on-year basis, as many economies have done because of last year's coronavirus-induced slump.

Analysts have upgraded Singapore's trade outlook for 2021, in the wake of the better-than-expected export performance in the first half. External demand is tipped to stay strong in the next six months, even though Covid-19 outbreaks in key markets cast a pall over the forecast.

The manufacturing sector grew by 18.5% year on year, helped by robust global demand for semiconductors and semiconductor equipment. The construction sector expanded 98.8% compared with a year earlier when most construction activities stopped due to the lockdown.

Across the service sectors - the wholesale and retail trade, and transportation and storage sectors grew by 9.3 per cent in the second quarter of this year, reversing the 1.7 per cent contraction in the previous quarter. The remaining group of service sectors - accommodation and food service, real estate, administrative and support service, and other service sectors - expanded by 13.4 per cent.

Contact: Lee Fang Xing, Managing Partner, Singapore, E: lfang@taplowgroup.com

[vedranaastuff]

Tuzno je to sto nam se sve svelo na blejanje u telefone po citav dan, u svakom mogucem trenutku. Tuzno je to sto, niko istinski ne zna ko se kako osjeca, svi se trude da drugima pokazu koliko im je zabavno u zivotu. To sto je vecini postalo najbitnije istaci spoljasnji izgled, zanemarujuci unutrasnju ljepotu. Tuzno je sto se ljudi zale na sitnice, kukaju bez razloga, samo jer ne znaju za gore. Tuzno je sve, svijet je tuzan.

[crnagorakraljevina]

Dragan Hajdukovic  Stara Crna Gora je ubijena 1919 godine.

Zločinu su predhodila apokalipticna stradanja u Balkanskim ratovima (1912/13), Prvom svjetskom ratu ( 1914-1918 ) i Božićnom Ustanku (1919).

Balkanski ratovi su donijeli potpuno oslobodjenje Balkana od Turaka, ali je svojim vojničkim pobjedama Crna Gora dvostruko oslabljena. Prvo, broj mrtvih i ranjenih ratnika iznosio je skoro jednu trećinu ukupne Crnogorske vojske. Drugo, Crna Gora je, proširujući se na teritorije tek oslobođenje od Turaka, naglo udvostručila teritoriju i broj stanovnika, koji su uglavnom imali slab ili nikakav Crnogorski osjećaj. Zanimljivo je podsjetiti da su tek 1912 godine od Turaka oslobođeni Berane, Mojkovac, Bijelo Polje, Pljevlja, Rozaj, Plav i Gusinje koji se i danas nalaze u Crnoj Gori i Peć i Djakovica koji su samo kratko pripadali Crnoj Gori. Trebalo je vremena da ti novi krajevi počnu da osjećaju Crnu Goru kao svoju državu, a vremena nažalost nije bilo. Već iduće 1914 godine počeo je Prvi Svjetski Rat, rat u kome će broj poginulih, ranjenih i nestalih Crnogorskih vojnika dostići 40%.

Da je vodila računa jedino o svojim interesima, Crna Gora bi sto je moguće duže ostala neutralna u Prvom Svjetskom Ratu. Recimo mogla je spremnije početi rat u ljeto 1915 nego u ljeto 1914. (Primjera radi Albanija je čitav rat bila neutralna , Bugarska je poćela rat u jesen 1915, a Grćka tek u ljeto 1917 godine). Crnogorsku neutralnost je željela i diplomatskim kanalima traćila Austrija, koja je u Crnogorskoj vojsci vidjela teškog protivnika, protiv koga je u svojim ratnim planovima pripremala približno iste snage kao i protiv mnogo brojnije srpske vojske!

Crna Gora je protivno svojim interesima i zdravom razumu ali u skladu sa vjekovnim Viteškim duhom, romantizmom i idealima, nesebično i odmah ušla u rat sa dva osnovna cilja. Prvo da pomogne Srbiji. Drugo da pomogne konačno oslobađanje svih Južnih Slovena i stvaranje Jugoslavije kao zajednice bratskih i ravnopravnih južnoslavenskih naroda. Malo je poznato a veoma značajno da se Crna Gora zalagala za konfederalnu Jugoslaviju veoma sličnu onome sto se danas zove Evropska Unija. Da je prihvaćen Crnogorski prijedlog i da je 1918 godine Jugoslavija stvorena kao Konfederacija, najvjerovatnije bi se izbjegle tragedije koje su se desile u Drugom Svjetskom Ratu i devedesetih godina pri krvavom raspadu komunističke Jugoslavije. Nažalost, poslije rata, voljom Srbije i uz pomoć Francuske, stvorena je Jugoslavija kao unitarna država, a virus unitarizma koji je nosila od početka pokazao se smrtonosnim.

Srbija je odmah shvatila da je Prvi Svjetski Rat idealna prilika da uništi Crnogorsku državu u kojoj nije vidjela brata nego glavnu SMETNJU za stvaranje unitarne države, koje je već bilo započeto srpskom okupacijom slovenske brace u Makedoniji 1913 godine. Ostvarenje srpskih namjera je uveliko olakšao Kralj koji nije imao razloga da ne vjeruje kopiladima te je učinio najveću grešku u svome životu (a možda i najveću grešku u čitavoj Crnogorskoj istoriji) dozvolivši da Crnogorska vojska (radi veće efikasnosti zajedničkih ratnih operacija) u velikoj mjeri bude pod srpskom komandom, sto je Srbija zloupotrijebila.

Dva se elementa jasno uočavaju u srpskom odnosu prema crnogorskoj vojsci:  Prvo, Crnogorska vojska je od početka pa zaključno sa bitkom na Mojkovcu rasporedjivana i korisćena isključivo prema potrebama srpske vojske, sto je bitno smanjilo mogučnost odbrane Crne Gore Može se slobodno reći da je ukupno djelovanje Crnogorske vojske u Prvom Svjetskom Ratu, spasilo srpsku vojsku od potpunog uništenja i omogućilo njeno povlačenje kroz Crnu Goru u Albaniju i kasnije otvaranje Solunskog fronta koji je značajno doprinio pobjedi saveznika.

Drugo, srbija je bila veoma zabrinuta da će Crna Gora i poslije srpskog povlacenja uspjeti da sacuva svoju vojsku i nastavi rat sa Austrijom. Zbog toga je Srbija podmuklim destruktivnim djelovanjem uradila sve sto je u njenoj moci da izazove haos, oslabi crnogorsku odbranu i olaksa posao Austriji. Bez prikrivene i nedogovorene ali velike srpske pomoci Austrija ne bi vec u Januaru 1916 godine zauzela Lovcen i Cetinje.  

Nikola Pasic, Predsjednik Srpske Vlade, obradovan ovim dogadjajima i siguran da ce Crna Gora poslije rata biti lak plijen Srbije, pobjedonosno obavjestava svoga Kralja «Srbija trenutno gubi rat protiv Austrije ali zato za sva vremena dobija rat protiv Crne Gore». Nikola Pasic je tada bio na sigurnom, u Skadru u Albaniji, gde se ni on ni njegova vojska nikada ne bi nasli, nego bi bili opkoljeni i unisteni da ih nije spasila Crna Gora (ne samo bitkom na Mojkovcu nego i ukupnim ratnim ucinkom).

Desilo se sto se desilo. Crna Gora je spasila Srbiju ali je okupirana od strane Austrije. Uslijedile su dvije teske godine okupacije, sa velikim stradanjem civilnog stanovnistva i velikim brojem crnogorskih vojnika koji su kao ratni zarobljenici bili odvedeni u logore u Madjarskoj. Ipak, Austrija je tokom citave okupacije bila suocena sa upornim otporom crnogorskih komitskih ceta. Tako ce Crna Gora docekati kraj rata slabija nego ikada ranije, sa velikim civilnim i vojnickin zrtvama (broj mrtvih, nestalih i ranjenih bio je preko 40% ukupne crnogorske vojske koja je stupila u rat).

Poslije povlačenja srpske vojske u Albaniju, Srbija i Francuska su razvile bliske savezničke odnose koji su posebno učvršćeni borbama na Solunskom Frontu. Francuski interes je bio stvaranje unitarne Jugoslavije (naravno pod francuskim uticajem), koja bi zauvijek onemogućila uticaj Italije, Austrije i Rusije na Balkanu. Tako su iza scene Francuska i Srbija postali saveznici u stvaranju unitarne Jugoslavije. Prvi neizbježni korak na tome putu bila je likvidacija Crnogorske države, jer bi Crnogorsko insistiranje na konfederaciji podstaklo i druge južnoslovenske narode da traže takvo rješenje. Izvršene su pažljive pripreme da bi Crna Gora poslije rata postala sto lakši plijen Srbije. Sistematskim lažima i dezinformacijama rušen je ugled Crne Gore kod ostalih saveznika. Francuska je zabranila povratak Kralja i Vlade u Crnu Goru i praktićno ih je protivno svim međunarodnim zakonima držala kao zarobljenike u blizini Pariza (to je pravdano brigom za njihovu bezbjednost u Crnoj Gori!). Crnogorskim vojnicima (a naročito oficirima) oslobođenim iz austrijskih logora planski je otežavan i onemogućavan povratak u Crnu Goru...U takvoj situaciji, u jesen 1918 godine, kada više nije bilo ni jednog austrijskog vojnika u Crnoj Gori, u Crnu Goru su upale srpske i francuske trupe. Crna Gora se našla okupirana od svojih dojućerašnjih saveznika!

U tom trenutku Crna Gora je imala i svoga Kralja i legalno izabranu Skupstinu i Vladu (koje su Francuzi i dalje drzali u zarobljenistvu). Ne obaziruci se na to Srbija je 26 Novembra 1918 godine organizovala skup svojih pristalica, takozvanu «Podgoricku Skupstinu» i proglasila prisajedinjenje Crne Gore Srbiji!  

Desilo se ono sto Srbija i Francuska nijesu očekivale. Samo šest nedelja poslije «Podgoričke Skupštine», 6 Januara 1919 godine Crna Gora je smogla snage i digla se na masovan ustanak, poznat kao Božicni Ustanak. Ustanici su u prvom naletu iako slabo naoružani mogli da oslobode Cetinje i čitavu Crnu Goru. Uplašeni i iznenađeni brojem i silinom ustanika, da bi dobili na vremenu dok im pristignu pojačanja, Srbi i Francuzi (koji su glumili neutralnost) su ponudili pregovore. Tu je došla do izražaja osnovna slabost ustanika koji su za razliku od svojih protivnika imali ljudskosti u sebi. Oni su čak i u okupatorskim srpskim vojnicima vidjeli griješnu bracu i oklijevali da proliju bratsku krv. Zato su umjesto da krenu u odlučujuci napad prihvatili sa srpske i francuske strane potpuno neiskrene pregovore. Tako je propušten trenutak u kome je Crna Gora mogla biti oslobođena i borba nastavljena pod mnogo povoljnijim uslovima. U srpsko-Crnogorskom ratu koji je uslijedio poginulo je oko tri hiljade Crnogorskih ustanika a još vise ih je ranjeno. Izvršeni su strasni zločini nad civilnim stanovništvom Crne Gore. Poslednji ustanici su savladani tek 1926 godine, mada je već 1919 bilo jasno da Crnogorski ustanak protiv srbije (u uslovima francuske podrške srbiji i pasivnog držanja međunarodne zajednice) neće dovesti do oslobođenja. Crnoj Gori čak nije dozvoljeno ni da učestvuje na mirovnoj konferenciji u Parizu 1919 godine, sto je jedinstven slučaj u istoriji mirovnih konferencija, na kojima po pravilu učestvuju sve države učesnice rata. Ma kako to apsurdno zvučalo, da su Crnogorski ratni protivnici, Austrija i Njemaćka dobili rat, Crna Gora bi sigurno učestvovala na mirovnoj konferenciji i ne bi izgubila državu.

Odnos srbije prema Crnoj Gori u Prvom Svjetskom Ratu i tokom Božicnog Ustanka spada u jednu od najsramnijih stranica srpske istorije, uporedivu sa sramotom kada su Karadjordjevu glavu dali turcima na poklon.

Treba istaci da je svjetsko javno mnenje toga doba shvatilo tragediju Crne Gore.

«An immense injustice had been inflicted on a small nation...» (Velika je nepravda nanijeta jednoj maloj naciji...) pisao je New York Times.

Grčke novine su pisale « Crna Gora je simbol čitavog čovječanstva; država koja je uprkos tome sto je mala znala kroz vjekove da sačuva nezavisnost. Mi vjerujemo da je nezavisnost Crne Gore svetinja i da oni koji su digli ruku na nju nijesu prijatelji slobode, mira i humanosti»  

Časni savremenici su mirovnu konferenciju u Parizu nazvali zločinom protiv Crne Gore.

Nažalost sve to nije moglo pomoći. Svijet je bio suviše umoran od Prvog Svjetskog Rata da bi se energičnije suprotstavio srpsko-francuskoj okupaciji Crne Gore. Tako je zauvijek nestala Stara Crna Gora o kojoj je William Ewart Gladstone, četvorostruki Predsjednik Engleske Vlade u doba kada je Engleska bila svjetska sila broj jedan napisao:

“Braveries and battles for independence of Montenegrins surpass those of the ancient Hellenes at Thermopylae and at Marathon.” (Hrabrost i bitke za nezavisnost Crnogoraca, nadmašuju one starih Helena kod Termopila i Maratona).

lično - “Ubili su je 1918 godine 88 godina Naš narod pokušavao je da preživi i Preživio je !!  U Pamet se sestre i braćo Crnogorci veliku smo cijenu platili !”