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letterstothemidnightsociety · 4 years

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THURSDAY OCTOBER 8, one of the longest running television shows of our time begins airing the final episodes of it’s final season. Guys, Supernatural is 15. FIFTEEN. It can practically drive a car now. As one friend put it, “that show had a Quinceañera.” And if you don’t know how significant that is, think of the last show you know of that made it to season 10. Take your time, I’ll wait.

Whoever I stole this birthday invite from, they are probably older than this show.

I started watching Supernatural in 2008. I was 19, I had just begun my journey towards Over-Worked, Under-Slept Millennial, and my best friend recommended it. I can’t really remember how the conversation went, but I’m sure at some point it was “It’s scary, and it’s got these two brothers, I’ll send you a link!” cuz we were trash and we were broke and Netflix...existed? Hulu existed, but not in the way that either of those sites work now, so we watched by...ahem...other means. It is probably why my first laptop stopped working after 3 semesters of college.

And damn, I was hooked. I don’t do scary movies and honestly, I was legit creeped out by a lot of these episodes, but it had two hot dudes who took down a monster every week and then (the real kicker) had a bigger, season-long mystery they were trying to solve. And occasionally, they got punched in their big dumb beautiful faces. If I had known what a kink was at the time, I would have said that someone was reading my dream diary.

Over the next 12 years - Let me say that again for those of you in the back - TWELVE YEARS - I had an on-again-off-again relationship with the Winchesters. It was pretty hot and heavy in the beginning. I was jumping on the back of this 67 Chevy Impala 3 years in, so I had three seasons that I bought on DVD that I binged and was caught up with season 4 by the time the midseason started to air in late January of 2009. I was introducing all my friends to Supernatural, I made several people watch the entire first disc of season 1 with me, irregardless of whether they’d asked or not. Things started to cool down towards the end of season 4 as life started picking up and I know...I caught...the tail end of season 5? I think? I distinctly remember the final scene of the final episode, but honestly, I can’t remember how much of that season I actually watched.

At that point, I considered Supernatural to be a weird pseudoaddiction. I’d be clean for a while, years even, and then Netflix caught up with consumers and I could binge whole seasons in a weekend. It’d be, oh, I could just watch an episode. Just one episode. Maybe two. And then the weekend is gone in a blaze of classic rock and rock salt and I’m left with something like but not necessarily a hangover where my feelings live. I think I did this for seasons 6 through, like, 8? Eventually, Netflix stopped putting it at the top of my dashboard and it was easier to avoid. And I said to myself, well, when they finally get to the last season, THEN I’ll go on one last run, one last big score, and watch the whole series again in one go.

But the seasons kept coming?? And they?? Didn’t stop?? Guys, I don’t know how many of you care about this but, Friends, one of the most popular sitcoms of all time that defined an entire generation had ten seasons. TEN. Supernatural is ending with fifteen! For an industry where most shows don’t make it past a pilot, let alone a season 1, this is INSANE.

But now it’s ending. Even though a pandemic halted production just two episodes away from the finale, Supernatural is finally outta cassette tapes. The Wayward Sons may finally (??) be laying their wearied heads to rest (?? lol, I know).

And frankly, 2020’s been a real sh*tshow so I thought “Why not?”

And if I’m doing this and I’m not interacting with anyone on a human level, I might as well chronicle this epic dive into a time capsule of television because frankly, what the hell else am I doing?

Cuz that’s what this is guys. 15 years in TV time is multiple lifespans. Shows are born, grow into something Emmy-worthy, and die in less time than Supernatural has been on the air. You know what else aired their pilot episode in 2005? The American version of The Office. You know when The Office ended? 2013.

So let’s talk about pilots because that in and of itself may be a thing of the past not too far from now.

Guys, I love pilots. I will probably say this a lot over the next, uhhhh...many months, but I love pilots and I love season ones, especially for a sci-fi and fantasy shows because that’s where your characters are at their most vulnerable, their most unsure. The writers and producers are really digging around, trying to figure out what the groundwork for this world is and there’s something so exciting about exploring it with them, as an audience.

Pilot’s are great, pilots on spec are even better, and that’s a lot of what the Supernatural Pilot feels like. It’s got a real indie/guerilla-style horror movie vibe, like the crew scraped together just enough cash for that one special effect scene but had to skimp out on a lot of the other production stuff, and still managed to turn something around that is totally, 100% watchable and somehow more charming than if they’d had the budget to make something really polished? Go watch Night of the Living Dead (1968) and tell me that movie would have been better if they’d had a bigger budget. You could, but I won’t agree.

Ok so a quick break down of technical terms. A television pilot is basically the first episode of a TV show. Well, that’s not exactly true. A pilot is kind of like making a sample or a blueprint of your show that you hand over to the television networks and say, here! This is what my TV show will look like. Will you pay me money to continue making it? And the networks (think ABC, NBC, CBS, FOX and The CW - remember, this is Network, not cable) will spend January through April of every year reviewing pilots and deciding if they want to pay you money to make more episodes. Well, every year except 2020. See: sh*tshow. Sometimes the network comes to you with an idea, or maybe, you’ve pitched your script/show to some executives and they buy in for that first pilot episode to see where things will go. Neither of these scenarios are a sure thing, and pilot season is always rife with will-they-won’t-they tension. In fact, if you’re working on the show, there’s a real possibility that pilot will get re-shot after studio notes, you’ll lose your job to someone the studio liked better, and then the show still may not get picked up. A pilot shot on spec is in even more of a limbo scenario because nobody asked for this! And just to follow through on Pilot Season - after the networks decide to buy your pilot, they then air the pilot at Upfronts (usually in May) where their many ad companies decide if they will pay money to air their ads during those shows. This is where we get things like prime time and key demographics - if you thought TV was all about the art, you are very wrong. TV, like most other industries, is still a business that’s about making money.

Back to the Supernatural pilot. Now, from my research, series creator Eric Kripke had been working on the concept for 10 years. He was big into classic rock, big into urban legends and big into cowboys and all those things get married ever so neatly in this show. A lot of his initial ideas remain unchanged, at least for the first season - he wants two brothers, traveling across the country, facing off with America’s Spookiest Myths and legends. A lot of it did change. I honestly feel like I remember reading an early draft of the pilot where Sam and Dean are cowboys? But I’m also pretty sure I’m imaging that. What I’m not imagining is this ridiculous early draft where John’s been locked in an insane asylum, dies before the first episode starts, and Sam’s been living with an aunt and uncle his whole life and knows nothing. They still use something close enough to the La Llorona legend as the catalyst for the episode, but a lot of other things are changed. This is not the Sam and Dean we come to know and love. This is also a good example of when you SHOULD listen to notes, because this draft was rewritten after executive producer McG and his Wonderland Sound and Vision production company signed on, but before they actually shot the script.

Now from what I’ve read, the WB picked the show up for (4) episodes initially, and ultimately picked it up for a full season of (22) episodes. This was, at the time, a pretty standard season and a pretty standard way to get it. They had a better deal than The Office, anyway, which only got picked up for (6) episodes in their first season, then got picked up four episodes at a time for season 2.

Now let’s go over that paragraph one more time and talk about what a hecking DINOSAUR this show is -

FIRST off - Supernatural premiered on THE WB. It PREDATES The CW!!

Man guys, you remember they had a frog as a mascot? Oof, that would not work today.

Secondly, it got 22 EPISODES. We’ll get into this some more when we talk about that evil bugs filler ep, but think about how many episodes were in the last show that you binged on Netflix? 8? Maybe 10?

Welcome to the exciting world of GRAPHS brought to you buy https://www.theringer.com/tv/2017/8/4/16094348/inefficiency-week-mourning-the-lost-long-tv-season

OH! And SPEAKING of Netflix and streaming services like them, they’re kind of killing pilot season AND upfronts. They pick up shows when they want to. They “air” them when they feel like. There are no ads because you pay for that content on a monthly basis and also they don’t even have commercial breaks. I am slowly seeing the passage of time in one (1) episode of television and I think I’ve aged 100 years.

Here is just one of MANY articles about the death of Pilot Season

Finally, and most importantly, this show got a better deal than The Office. And that show was an NBC primetime show.

This show was nominated for 193 awards and won 50. And it ended when my nephew was still in kindergarten. He’s gonna be in high school next year.

So what about this Supernatural Pilot? Was it any good? Honestly, I’m gonna say yeah. This is some very solid Hero’s Journey here. I think the only weird thing about it is that Sam is our Hero, our point of contact character that gets us into this world. And I only say that because I’ll be real up front and say that I’m a Dean girl through and through. I don’t hate Sam, but because we live in a world where we have to choose, it’s Dean 4Eva.

From that early script draft, we learn the plan was for Sam to be in the dark and essentially be our audience stand in so that Dean can explain all the backstory. I think the decision to make John Winchester raise his kids as a weird fringe paramilitary outfit and establish Sam as the brother that tried to get away is a good one. It’s a very “Arrive Late” (or if you’re fancy, in media res,) sort of attitude and it works and you’ve already started building in the Atonement with the Father. There’s still some pretty excellent exposition dialogue, but what are ya gonna do. Sam, did you really need to explain to Dean that your collective father “raised you like warriors”? Or that you “kill everything we CAN find?” It’s fine. You’re beautiful and I love you. But also, he knows all that.

You have the Call to Adventure - Dean showing up and saying “Dad hasn’t been home in a few days.” You have the refusal of the call (“He’ll sleep it off”). You have your supernatural aid (hah!) giving Sam a push out the door - that’s Dean. You have your famous line that I quoted along with the TV - Dad’s on a hunting trip. And he hasn’t been home in a few days.

The dead mom backstory seems pretty on the nose, but the “burned on the ceiling” concept was new and unique enough that I was intrigued to find out more. Listen, I’ve already admitted I don’t watch a lot of horror so if this has been done before, don’t @ me.

La Llorona or Woman in White or Weeping Woman was a new trope to me at the time, so it too seemed fresh. I see that myth show up in a lot more Supernatural-type shows now, but in 2008, at 19, I was like, oh this is different. Not to mention - this definitely leaned in to the horror aspect. I know I’m a baby, but it aired at 9pm, which is the more adult side of Prime Time, so the WB thought it was too spooky for kids who had early bedtimes. So there.

I HATE when they do this cuz it freaks me out EVERY TIME and THAT’S NOT EVEN HOW THESE MIRRORS WORK??? SHE’S NOT EVEN IN THE BACK SEAT IN THIS SHOT!

And then at the END, when Sam STILL refuses the call to adventure, you have the real Crossing of the Threshold - Jess is ALSO stuck on the ceiling, dead, and on fire. Spoiler alert, but they had to fridge her early to make the rest of the season work and so it shouldn’t be a big surprise. Sam’s all in and we get 21 more episodes of him and Dean and that car.

Is it technically fridging if she’s lit on fire?

And let’s talk about Jess for a second cuz actress Adrianne Palicki is giving a LOT more in this performance than a fridged girlfriend should be required to. She’s likeable, she’s down to earth, she’s crushing it and and all this with only, like, two scenes of dialogue. I say this even though we meet her in a slutty nurse costume - COME on WB.

WB what the hell is this wardrobe. What the HELL is THIS.

In fact, all of the extras in this show are crushing it? Louis is instantly likeable and he disappears after his first scene, never to grace our TV’s again. And these extras in the town in Jericho, California - I kind of love them. As CW (or I guess, WB) as Jessica is, these extras look like they found them at the local highschool and I LOVE THEM FOR IT. They probably came to set already in makeup and wardrobe! They POSSIBLY brought their own jewelry! They’re weirdos and they are GREAT. I’m pretty sure this will NEVER happen again on this show because once the $$ came in, so did the more polished-looking one-off characters.

Lookit these magnificent goth weirdos! And great news, both these actresses have very full, non-goth careers after this.

Also, heckin’ Joseph Welch is just crushing it. This man has NOTHING CW about him and that’s maybe why I like him so much? Everything about the scene with him and Sam is pretty heartbreaking, from his rundown car graveyard to his rundown physique with his rundown accent to the fact that we never actually see his face. Seriously, really LOOK at this scene - WHAT is going on with this cinematography? Is this a reference to something? It’s SO bleached out and SO stark and WHAT is going on???

WHAT is this lighting? And also this guy was played by Steve Railsback was on X-Files!

You can’t talk about Supernatural without talking about the chemistry between Sam and Dean and that’s probably the real hook here? I mean a) very beautiful. I will probably talk about this a lot. Let’s call it what it is here, they’re beefcakes and they’re made for me and people like me. It is weird that this show is so macho but their primary audience was mostly there for the babes. And by babes I mean Jensen Ackles and Jared Padalecki. And b) they REALLY sell the whole brothers thing. They’re both from Austin, TX which feels like a weird coincidence. They were both already on WB shows before this one, also a weird coincidence. And they just click. They just do. It’s impressive, and occasionally creepy when we start to get into the Wincest of it all, but lets not talk about that.

Oh, and the MUSIC! The music just makes it. If you don’t believe me, watch the Netflix version of the first season and then find yourself a DVD version. See, TV shows need to acquire a license to play popular music during the show. Nowadays, the CW actually tags their songs in the episode so you can find and presumably buy it later, but they still have to pay royalties for using those pop songs. When Netflix acquired Supernatural, they did NOT acquire the licensing to use the classic rock songs from ACDC, Metallica, etc. and so you’re left with some pretty bland and generic production music that’s something like but not necessarily Back in Black. More like, Back in...Grey? This pun didn't work how I wanted it to.

And the show just...doesn’t work? Like, who knew BACKINBLAAAAACK! Was so instrumental to whether I thought this was quality programming or not. Side note - it ruins my favorite piece of dialogue of maybe the entire series -

Sam: I swear, man, you gotta update your cassette tape collection.

Dean: Why?

Sam: Well, for one, they're cassette tapes.

Do the young people even know what a cassette tape is? I AM the CRYPTKEEPER.

So yeah, you got a lot of ingredients to make something pretty great. Did we know then that it would launch a juggernaut of a television program that would still be on the air in the Year of Our Reckoning, 2020? I was a big fan of Firefly, so I was 99.99% sure this show was gonna get canceled at any second. In fact, I was thrilled, in 2008, to find there were two more seasons after the one I was currently watching. Of course, season 3 aired around the time of the great Writer’s Strike of ‘07, where nothing looked good and few programs survived, but we’ll get there.

In a final, kind of spooky, almost premonition-type decision the WB actually decided to air this pilot episode a whole week early on Yahoo!. Yeah, you remember Yahoo!, right? The search engine that briefly tried to have its own original streaming content and then we all abandoned it in favor of the monster that is Google? Yeah. This episode premiered online. I haven’t done enough research, but I’m gonna go out on a limb here and say this was probably one of the first ever TV shows to start on the internet? Weird to think that was a novel and innovative concept at one time.

So this is it. This is the end of the era. Are we gonna get any more shows that last as long as this one did? Who knows. Are we as a culture gonna care at that point? I don’t know. Our TV habits have changed so much in the last few years that it’s hard to say how we’ll watch TV in the future. But credit where it’s due, boys. Nice huntin’.

#Supernatural #season 1 #pilot #season 15 #Sam #Dean #Winchester #Television #Quarantine Binging #CW #WB

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treemist5 · 5 years

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Markets Live: Monday, 10th September 2018

11:06 am

Good morning, welcome, hi. You might've noticed a ghost session appear briefly where the headline claimed it was Friday.

11:07 am

.............. so ................... let's ignore all macro and overview and stuff to get straight into plastics.

RPC Group PLC (RPC:LSE): Last: 824.80, up 141.2 (+20.66%), High: 857.40, Low: 800.00, Volume: 3.27m

11:09 am

So. Bloomberg did a ...... story? Let's call it a story? on RPC over the weekend about it considering strategic options including a possible sale,

Which as you'll remember followed Standard Life Aberdeen, 10% shareholder, telling the Sunday Telegraph that the company is “highly vulnerable” to a takeover

11:10 am

That story also mentioned sector peer Berry Global ..... which, yeah, okay.

So today, we get .... confirmation? Let's call it confirmation.

11:11 am

The Board of RPC Group Plc ("RPC" or the "Company") notes the recent media speculation and confirms that preliminary discussions are taking place with each of Apollo Global Management and Bain Capital which may or may not result in an offer for the Company.

"Media speculation" ........ heh. Good. Fine. Words don't mean anything anymore, so fine. Good.

So ................ the backdrop here is that RPC's been kicked for 18 months solid.

11:13 am

Largely on the idea that it's a rollup that uses acquisitions to fudge bad and deteriorating cashflow.

However! We have two potential bids out there! Apparently!

11:15 am

For a company whose core business doesn't really do cashflow generation in any demonstrable way and is already levered at 2x. Classic PE target, clearly.

Okay, so reversing out of my cynicism a little and starting at the top -- RPC's cheap against peers.

11:16 am

RPC’s international peers trade on a FY1 EBITDA multiple of 9.9x and an FY2 EBITDA multiple of 9.1x. Putting RPC’s FY19E EBITDA of £613.9 million on 9.9x and using FY19E net debt of £1,065 million implies a per share equity value of 1,262p, an 85% premium to the last close. The peers in our universe are Amcor, AptarGroup, Berry, DS Smith, Pact Group and Silgan.

And also note the bids all over the sector recently.

There have been a number of M&A transactions in international packaging in recent months. These include Amcor's offer for Bemis at 11.7x EBITDA pre-synergies, Transcontinental's offer for Coveris at 9.7x EBITDA pre-synergies and AptarGroup’s bid for CSP Technologies for 13.0x EBITDA presynergies.

11:18 am

Peel Hunt makes similar arguments about valuation ......

The right price and what the offer will be are not always going to be the same (Tomkins’ shareholders might remember what happened in 2010). Applying the Amcor/Bemis maths for its August approach. the implied Bemis price was $57.75, which was a PE of 20.7x and an EBITDA multiple of 11.7x, which fell to 8.9x post synergies. The Bemis price at Friday’s close was $49.80, so a current PE of 17.8x and an EBITDA multiple of 10.1x. If we crudely overlay the current Bemis valuation onto RPC we get to 1,330p on a PE basis and 1,230p on an EBITDA basis. This compares to RPC on a PE of 9.1x and EBITDA multiple of 6.4x.

There's a couple of important caveats to all that though.

11:19 am

First, it's difficult to think of a buyer for RPC other than private equity.

(Some might argue that it's difficult to think of a buyer for RPC including private equity. But I said I'd wind back the cynicism a bit.)

PE's trickier to make the numbers work.

11:20 am

Amcor’s ongoing bid for Bemis would seemingly rule them out while Berry Global, with a current market capitalisation of $4.5bn, is probably not big enough unless it possibly joined up with a private equity player to generate hard synergies. It would not be a surprise to see additional private equity players appear.

The next month will be pivotal for RPC. If there is no bid, the bears will take hold, while if there is a bid we expect it to come at a healthy premium to Friday’s close of 684p but accept that the Bemis read across is ambitious given the lack of hard synergies available to the private equity bidders.

11:20 am

Something about this one reminds me of FirstGroup-Apollo ............

As in, you had PE interest in a company sending out obvious distress signals

11:22 am

That leaked very, very early in the process.

Though it did result in a second indicative offer, albeit one management couldn't accept.

... and that was followed by reports last week of interest from elsewhere, which the market completely dismissed as soon as it crossed the tape.

11:24 am

FirstGroup PLC (FGP:LSE): Last: 98.87, up 4.07 (+4.30%), High: 99.40, Low: 93.45, Volume: 2.42m

.... anyway, Northern Trust Capital Markets is sticking to its guns here.

RPC (Sell): Still view a buyout as unlikely, an opportunity to sell

11:25 am

Concerns are mostly repeating previous stuff about cash conversion and phantom profit growth

Limited synergies, cost savings programmes coming to an end: RPC is the largest EU plastic packaging manufacturer, with 5% market share.

11:26 am

While the company has been investing increasingly outside of Europe (ex-EU is 23% of sales up from 6% when Vision 2020 strategy started), it is largely a European business and the largest in the region.

Most of the cost savings programmes [e.g. plant closures] have happened in Europe and the most recent and largest cost saving programme is coming to an end in FY19.

11:27 am

.............. with existing assets, we think

11:28 am

................ the ability for private equity

................. to increase operating margins further from here

...................... without incurring large cash costs is limited.

11:29 am

(Apologies that I had to quote it like that. The ludicrous ML spam filter kept rejecting the final sentence, for no apparent reason.)

As we have stated, a takeover/buyout is the main risk to our sell thesis. That risk is higher today given RPC is in early discussions with two buyers. However, given the importance to buyout firms of cash generation and stable profit growth, our central view remains a detailed look at the cash generation at RPC will not lead to an acquisition.

There, Mr McGuire. Rather more than one word on plastics.

11:30 am

Debenhams PLC (DEB:LSE): Last: 10.83, down 1.97 (-15.39%), High: 12.14, Low: 10.34, Volume: 11.47m

11:30 am

The gist being that they're looking at a CVA to exit shops and restructure debt.

11:33 am

The Times version of the same story adds that credit insurers have reduced cover to suppliers by 1/3, having already reduced cover by 1/3 in July.

Quick line from Liberum, one of the few brokers that still follow.

Liberum view: The company has not made any comment, at this stage, in relation to the press reports, although if the rumours are true it would not come as a great surprise to us. On the negative, it would suggest Debenhams' turnaround strategy to date has not been enough to improve its financial performance to help alleviate the ongoing pressures that have led to three profits warnings and a greater than 50% cut to consensus over the past 9 months. The group continues to rank poorly when looking at a variety of quality metrics – three year forecast EPS CAGR -25%, fixed charge cover (EBIT basis) 1.2x, operational gearing of over 20x and net debt:EBITDA 2.0x. If a positive were to be taken from this newsflow, we believe it is that management is now potentially looking at much more drastic action, which could bring about a more appropriately sized store estate and cost base quicker. This is exactly what we think is required for any successful turnaround to set the business on a path to achieve long-term sustainable profit growth.

11:34 am

And since we've reached the midpoint of today's ML, you're going to have to indulge me in an anecdote.

So. I was in Westfield Shepherds Bush yesterday, on the hunt for school shoes.

And since it's September, needless to say, every school shoe rack in every decent shop had been picked over. That led us to Debenhams.

11:37 am

They had some on the shelf! And since the shop was completely deserted, we had time to find a left and a right that were the same size (which was less easy than you'd assume; it was a lot of orphan shoes).

So ....... success ............ went to the till.

And waited 15 minutes as the lone till jockey signed up the people in front to a loyalty card.

11:39 am

Then, finally, getting to the front, they ring through at a third less than the ticket price.

Why? "Dunno." Is there any kind of promotion going on? "Dunno."

So, fine, super. Not going to argue. And without even paying the extra 5p they're packed up in a big plastic bag that says Merry Christmas from Debenhams.

11:41 am

It's this kind of flawless execution that has made Debenhams what it is.

Anyway, we're now at the stage of looking at secondary effects.

11:42 am

Intu Properties PLC (INTU:LSE): Last: 149.90, down 0.1 (-0.07%), High: 150.75, Low: 148.35, Volume: 816.97k

Reits have been running pretty poor all month

And you have to imagine that rent negotiation won't be easy from here. Westfield, as mentioned, is allegedly your AAA-rated mall ....

11:44 am

...... but it has about a fifth of its blocks fallow and is anchored on the South side by a Debenhams and a House of Fraser. If that's your AAA-rated, what's happening at the B and Cs?

Caz wrote a bit about this last week.

We remain of the view that it is unlikely prime mall portfolios will see negative like-for-like rental growth in a benign economic environment. However, we acknowledge the asymmetric risk in the direction of rents, and now see investor expectations of rental growth as the main driver of yield shift and valuation changes, even if positive rental growth is recorded. Using DCF analysis across four rental scenarios, we have revised down our capital growth for UK shopping centres from an average of -1% to -4% pa for our five-year forecast period. NAVs come down by an average of -9.5% for each year in the same period and PT’s come down by an average of 12.5% for those companies exposed to UK retail.

11:45 am

In terms of UK exposure ......

Close to 100% exposed Intu sees a downgrade of -20.5% to 175p and 100% exposed CapReg -24% to 57p. More diversified BLND sees a downgrade of just 2.7% (715p) and LAND -6.7% to 1120p. We remain OW LAND, HMSO and CapReg, Neutral Intu and BLND.

11:47 am

(@hornblower: nah, don't think we'll bother.)

Well done to Ben on shaking out Revolution.

11:48 am

Revolution Bars Group PLC (RBG:LSE): Last: 123.50, down 3.5 (-2.76%), High: 135.00, Low: 122.00, Volume: 643.35k

Why confirmation took until shortly before 6pm on Friday is anyone's guess.

11:49 am

And the shares were already up, what, 11% by Friday's close

Here's Canaccord to talk us through where things stand.

At last, it looks like there's been an outburst of common sense in the RBG boardroom. It's a shame it's taken another 12 months to get to this stage following the collapse of Stonegate's opportunistic bid for Revolution last year. We retain our BUY recommendation and 190p target price.

11:50 am

You'll remember the Stonegate bid was 203p and failed to get 75% acceptances.

Stonegate then ruled itself out of returning, though I don't think that's binding in any technical sense should they change their mind.

11:51 am

Since then RBG's share price has virtually halved, we downgraded our RBG forecasts in June and we expect trading to have continued to be poor after a difficult summer. After nine months without a CEO, RBG has just appointed Rob Pitcher from M&B and the prelims in October could have been a baptism of fire for the new bar-tender without the helpful distraction of talks with Deltic.

There are merits to putting the businesses together. In brief there are (1) c.+£7m of synergies to be captured, (2) RBG can use Deltic's cashflow to build out the bars business, (3) both businesses are too small and (4) Peter Marks, CEO of Deltic, is well-placed to become CEO of the enlarged business.

RBG is valued on a PE of 11.1x, an EV/EBITDA of 5.3x and FCF yield of 14.2% for FY18E changing to 8.7x, 4.6x and 17.3%, respectively, for FY19E. Our 190p share price target is based on an EV/EBITDA of c.7.5x and a c.10% FCF yield for FY18E. We do not strip out pre-opening costs from our EPS (Dil. Adj) forecasts as (1) we view them as an ongoing cost of business and (2) this treatment is consistent across our universe of stocks. Last year, we wrote that Stonegate's 203p/share offer valued RBG on a trailing exit EV/EBITDA multiple (including pre-opening costs added back) of 6.4x. Assuming £7.7m of synergies identified by Deltic then the exit multiple drops to a measly 4.4x.

11:52 am

A sensible, fair approach to the process could create a c£35m EBITDA business with an enhanced management team, c0.5x net EBITDA and good growth opportunities.

Peel notes fewer synergies this time around but argues that it still makes sense to stick the businesses together, as three-quarters of Revolution's sales happen pre midnight.

Which makes it vertical integration, in a sense.

11:55 am

Also notes trading's likely to have been garbage for both through the summer.

We expect both RBG and Deltic had a difficult summer, without which both companies should be growing profitability. Late-night businesses tend to suffer during heatwaves, but typically only c20% of annual profits are earned between June and August.

11:55 am

Both boards are displeased that RBG has been forced to make this statement. This is disruptive for the staff, as it was last year. After last year’s events, the last thing either company needs is for this to be played out yet again in the public arena.

............... ah well. Tiny violins at the ready.

As RBG is potentially acquiring Deltic, this transaction could occur without altering Stonegate’s lock up, which expires on 17 October 2018. However, this is early days, and RBG’s shareholders need to be on board. Then, the transaction should effectively be an equity merger, with the three main decisions being: equity split; management split; and head office location. After last year’s events, this needs to be simple, and low cost, and without further leaks.

11:57 am

@Rabbit: sorry, I know nothing about Allied Minds.

Allied Minds PLC (ALM:LSE): Last: 79.50, up 5.9 (+8.02%), High: 79.50, Low: 75.00, Volume: 91.23k

11:59 am

They're up on three subsidiary announcements, which I'll summarise here.

· Federated Wireless announced two important milestones in commercializing shared spectrum: the submission of its proposal for Initial Commercial Deployments on the Citizens Broadband Radio Service (CBRS) spectrum band to the FCC, and the introduction of a new training program for Certified Professional Installers (CPI) of Citizens Broadband Radio Service Devices (CBSDs)

· BridgeSat raised $10.0 million in Series B financing led by Boeing HorizonX Ventures, proceeds from the transaction will be applied to accelerate the build out of BridgeSat's optical ground station (OGS) network

· HawkEye 360 completed second closing of its Series A-3 funding round raising aggregate proceeds of $14.9 million, led by Raytheon Company, the Series A-3 round included participation from the Sumitomo Corporation of Americas, Razor's Edge Ventures, Shield Capital Partners, Space Angels, and Allied Minds

Delayed H1 due September 28th, isn't it?

12:00 pm

Not sure why anyone would want to take a view before that.

And while in smalls, Abcam

12:00 pm

Abcam PLC (ABC:LSE): Last: 1,273, down 211 (-14.22%), High: 1,384, Low: 1,009, Volume: 2.14m

FY beats but 2019 margin guidance amounts to a soft warning.

36% EBITDA margin in 2019 is 2-3 percentage points below consensus

12:02 pm

Not huge downgrades as a result. But when you're at 45 times 2018 and 2019 it doesn't need huge downgrades

(@vv75: yes. Anything sub FTSE 250 is a small cap.)

12:03 pm

we make less than 1% changes to our 2019 and 2020 EPS forecasts, and believe that investors should take the strong revenue guidance positively. However, with consensus margins having drifted higher than management had previously intimated, we expect consensus EPS to fall into line with our forecasts, implying a c3% reduction for FY 2019. We reiterate our Buy rating and 1,640p price target.

And a bit more detail on the cut.

New guidance is for 11% constant currency growth in FY 2019 (including more than 20% growth in recombinant antibodies and immunoassays) and low double-digit growth in the mid-term (previously 9-11%), with the gross margin expected to continue to rise gradually. The company had previously indicated that operating leverage would be reinvested in the business, and it has now been more explicit, guiding to a 36% EBITDA margin in FY 2019. This is 2-3ppt lower than consensus, and likely to offset the stronger revenue outlook in the near term.

12:04 pm

Having encountered setbacks in its ERP system, Abcam is now taking a more phased approach, but this means a further £16m cost in FY 2019, and additional expenses in FY 2020. With an additional £12m of payment for Spring Bio in FY 2019 that we had failed to model, our period-end net cash estimate falls to £108m, from £138m.

The downgrade at EBITDA level's about 10%, note.

Oh, hang on, Panmure say exactly that.

12:05 pm

We expect changes to estimates to reduce EBITDA consensus by around £7m, taking circa 10% from EPS. The fall in expected profitability is due to increased investment in the ERP system, beyond what that previous forecast, as a slower phased rollout of the system is planned for 2019. In addition, further investment in stocking and manufacturing systems is expected, aiming improve the rate delivery of product to customers; an area where Abcam has consistently been weak.

In our view Abcam is trading at a level which required outperformance in FY2018, rather than just in line, and guidance at least meeting FY 2019 consensus. We expect the disappointment in the numbers to result in a rapid fall in the shares.

12:07 pm

Abcam shares trade at very elevated levels on 44.7x FY19 P/E compared to peers on 33x FY1 P/E, a 35% premium. We believe the expected downgrades to FY19 and FY20 numbers will cause a contraction in this premium

.... or were, but are now under review.

12:07 pm

Okay, that'll do for today.

12:09 pm

Which reminded me that Sackler was a nomination in last year's Person of Interest awards -- https://ftalphavil...2017-the-longlist/ ............... And we're happy to have contributed even slightly to the tarring and feathering of his family name.

12:13 pm 12:13 pm

Source: https://ftalphaville.ft.com/marketslive/2018-09-10/

#read more #see more #check it out #interesting #learn more

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thereviewsarein · 4 years

Text

Live music made its way back to Ontario in a big way this past weekend, as the first-ever HarmoniaFest took over the Italian Cultural Centre of Milton’s grounds Saturday night.

The brainchild of 2020 Country Music Association of Ontario Female Artist of the Year nominee Nicole Rayy, it was an evening showcasing some of the best female artists the province has to offer, with Suzi Kory, Mackenzie Leigh Meyer, Bree Taylor, Alessia Cohle and Leah Daniels rounding out the bill.

And for anyone still doubting the power of women in country music, rest assured this crew rocked the stage from start till finish — and fans couldn’t get enough.

Suzi Kory and Mackenzie Leigh Meyer kicked off the show and treated to the crowd to some acoustic sounds, with Bree Taylor not far behind.

And then we got into the sets from Alessia Cohle, Nicole Rayy, and Leah Daniels. Keep reading for photos and more.

#gallery-0-13 { margin: auto; } #gallery-0-13 .gallery-item { float: left; margin-top: 10px; text-align: center; width: 50%; } #gallery-0-13 img { border: 2px solid #cfcfcf; } #gallery-0-13 .gallery-caption { margin-left: 0; } /* see gallery_shortcode() in wp-includes/media.php */

As the sun went down, a few storm clouds made an appearance, but that wasn’t enough to stop Alessia Cohle from cranking up the volume.

After starting things off with How Bad, Two Steps Ahead and Talk to Me, the songstress paid homage to some diverse inherited musical taste (thanks to her father) with a foot-stomping cover of Dusty Springfield’s Son of a Preacher Man.

Alessia has continued to put her own stamp on country music, releasing her latest offering Tell You just last year — a song she penned with acclaimed artist Jason Blaine. It was that same track that helped round out her set, followed by Carrie Underwood’s Smoke Break.

Alessia Cohle, HarmoniaFest 2020 Setlist

★ How Bad ★ Two Steps Ahead ★ Talk to Me ★ Son of a Preacher Man (Dusty Springfield) ★ Wanderlust ★ Love Gone Right ★ All Good ★ The Middle (Maren Morris) ★ Tell You ★ Smoke Break (Carrie Underwood)

#gallery-0-14 { margin: auto; } #gallery-0-14 .gallery-item { float: left; margin-top: 10px; text-align: center; width: 50%; } #gallery-0-14 img { border: 2px solid #cfcfcf; } #gallery-0-14 .gallery-caption { margin-left: 0; } /* see gallery_shortcode() in wp-includes/media.php */

Next up was Nicole Rayy, and while the skies may have cleared up some, she brought the thunder — first with a pair of her own tracks, Let’s Fall in Love, and Bad Habit, before breaking into Kasey Musgraves’ Blowing Smoke alongside the Aerosmith classic Sweet Emotion.

The night’s entire line-up joined Rayy onstage for All Women (with the exception of Daniels, who was otherwise engaged — don’t ask), a moment the singer/songwriter said she had worked towards since the song’s inception.

From there the tracks came fast and hard, warranting a chorus of honks and headlight blinks from the car-bound crowd.

Rayy’s current release, Broken Boys, fell just shy of the end of the set, followed up with Put the Gun Down, and Don’t.

Nicole Rayy, HarmoniaFest 2020 Setlist

★ Let’s Fall in Love ★ Bad Habit ★ Blowing Smoke (Kasey Musgraves) ★ Sweet Emotion (Aerosmith) ★ All Women ★ Unfinished ★ Bow and Arrow ★ Uh Huh (Jade Bird) ★ Fireproof ★ Broken Boys ★ Put the Gun Down ★ Don’t

#gallery-0-15 { margin: auto; } #gallery-0-15 .gallery-item { float: left; margin-top: 10px; text-align: center; width: 50%; } #gallery-0-15 img { border: 2px solid #cfcfcf; } #gallery-0-15 .gallery-caption { margin-left: 0; } /* see gallery_shortcode() in wp-includes/media.php */

Lastly, Leah Daniels kicked things off in her set with her 2018 EP title track, The Story, before taking fans on a trademark high-energy ride to close out the night.

The most well-known name of the night’s lineup, Daniels continues to show everyone who sees her why she’s a fan favourite and how well she fits into a lineup like HarmoniaFest put together in 2020.

From Whitney Houston’s I Want to Dance with Somebody to Alanis Morrisette’s You Oughta Know, to a 90s medley packed with throwback hits, Daniels is an entertainer through and through. Add in her own releases like Together, First, and her Top 20 single, Go Back, and she put together a great set to wrap up a wonderful night of women in country music.

Leah Daniels, HarmoniaFest 2020 Setlist

★ The Story ★ Tell Me Right Now ★ I Want to Dance with Somebody (Whitney Houston) ★ Together ★ Go Back ★ You Outta Know (Alanis Morrisette) ★ My Swiss Moonlight Lullaby (Wilf Carter) ★ Nothing ★ 90s Medley; Semi-Charmed Life (Third Eye Blind), Fly (Sugar Ray), I Love You Always Forever (Donna Lewis) ★ First ★ Whiskey’s Gone (Zac Brown Band)

#gallery-0-16 { margin: auto; } #gallery-0-16 .gallery-item { float: left; margin-top: 10px; text-align: center; width: 50%; } #gallery-0-16 img { border: 2px solid #cfcfcf; } #gallery-0-16 .gallery-caption { margin-left: 0; } /* see gallery_shortcode() in wp-includes/media.php */

Country Music Women Shine at HarmoniaFest 2020 Live music made its way back to Ontario in a big way this past weekend, as the first-ever…

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gendermesenpai-blog · 6 years

Text

7:38am

welp

I’m actually doing pretty ok right now. I cut back on weed again. I’m not buying flower for a while. I’m probably going to work on getting some wax at some point but I’m doing ok right now. Uber has really been helping in terms of just having enough to eat a little bit everyday. I do wish I was eating more but c’est la vie. I just did some math and figured out how much money I will make before I leave for Europe. It’s just under $8000. Rent will be around $2000 in that time. Food expenses around $750. Wax could be as much as $1000 in that time. But at the end of the day I should be able to put away around $4000 if I am very dilligent about my spending. Obviously this doesn’t take into account various messwork related expenses which are difficult to predict - I could say that one gatorskin per month would leave me with about $300 less. But that’s not really worth considering since it will probably be much more than that, because tires are not the only expense in messwork. I am still planning on buying some more bike parts and that might run me up to $300 just on seatpost, stem and bars. Maybe a new fork since this Bontrager carbon fork is making me a little nervous lately from flexing. I do put a lot of hurt on my bike. It’s within reason that a cheap carbon fork (retail around $100) might weaken and snap from the constant daily pressure I’ve been putting on it. It was super stiff when I got it though since whoever rode this bike before me was probably just commuting ~1mi. And here I am putting in average of 30mi/day on it. It’s also all scratched up, might be worth upgrading just for the steez.

I’m feeling pretty good about my transition despite the fact I am 5 months in and still not as femme as I would like. It’s slow going, but progress is certainly being made. Thinking back on when my lil titty bumps started coming in and how it suddenly felt like there was this golfball sized lump in there. And now it’s advanced to, like.... half a apple? Like a small apple cut in half. So surreal! My face still looks kinda the same in the mirror, like it’s just kinda stuck in this halfway zone between masc and femme. My waist is tightening, I’m starting to get more of the buckled hourglass shape around my abdomen. And I sense some growth in my butt. Not sure how much. Difficult to measure that since I can’t easily see it and also because I’m not really measuring anything in this whole process. Emotionally I actually feel better on average since I’ve started cutting down on weed. I was so worried that if I sobered up I would start regretting stuff but no actually I just feel normal and good. When I looked in the mirror this morning I was like ooooh Hi. lol. I’m making enough progress that I think I can feel proud now of how far I’ve come.

Haven’t really been making much music. Just a couple beats here and there, a few bars if I think of something I like. This is something I think the weed was helping with for sure - I wrote literally every song on the LTC EP while I was high out of my mind, and drunk too in some cases. I am still so embarassed about the show I did. That kinda put the brakes on my creative output because I am too self conscious about it now. But I sense that it’s fading and I will probably end up back where I was at some point once I get over the hump from that setback.

When the muscle loss initially started I felt like the muscles were the same size, they just didn’t work the same anymore, didn’t recover as quickly etc. Now, the muscles are visibly and noticeably smaller. I had a pair of men’s pants that I bought when I went out to dinner with my brother in January, just before I started hormones. I remember those jeans being so tight on my quads that it was actually uncomfortable to wear them at all, let alone ride my bike in them with my muscles actually flexing. The other day I wore them out for a couple Uber runs and I noticed how loose they were on my quads. So weird because in the 5 months since I started hormones, I have only increased my output. I went from only working 3-4 days a week for Epic, some days doing as little as 15 miles, laying around being a poop the rest of the time, to now doing on average a minimum of 25-30 miles a day, everyday, including weekends, and sometimes as much as 40-50. So while my muscles appear to be shrinking and becoming weaker, I am actually somehow, paradoxically, becoming stronger. Yesterday my Strava said I got PRs on two segments that are actually kinda tough, one is a long section of flats downtown where the wind is almost always murder. It was brutal yesterday, and I remember crawling along, huffing and puffing and feeling sorry for myself about how weak I am now or whatever, and when I exited the section I remember being like, jesus, how is nobody noticing how slow I am these days? I can’t even ride with the other messengers anymore, blah blah. And then I check my Strava and it’s like, oh, no, actually you got a PR there. That was the fastest you’ve ever done that segment, by a good few seconds too. So, it’s like, I am still fast as shit, actually faster than before, but somehow it just feels like I’m not. It feels like I have to work super hard to get anywhere, and I’m always heaving and panting every time I arrive to my destination. But I get there fast as fuck and that’s what really matters as a messenger. So I guess I don’t have much to worry about there. My spiro dose went up to 100mg/day this month from 50 and there was initially what felt like a big drop off in terms of muscle function. But it’s really all good. I just worry too much I guess. But things are going well! It feels like I’m approaching the halfway mark in my transformation into an anime girl. Probably not really the case, it’s been slow going all along so I should expect the halfway point to be 1 year, and complete-ish around 2 years. But instead I’m like, nooo, I’ll be transformed by 1 year, the journey will be over! Unrealistic. But exciting.

I don’t even know what else to say about it. I’m happier than I’ve ever been. I’m more functional than I’ve ever been. I have actual plans and goals. I’m living in a really nice house. I have a decent enough job. It’s just so weird when I actively think about how all this is working out. Considering 2-3 years ago I had no fucking idea I was trans. I was just barely working out that there was something going on with my gender shit but I had no idea I was fully gril. And now I’m like, um, excuse me sweetie *sashay away*

The other night I talked to C on Skype and at one point I kind of randomly started using my voice and talking about how I should practice more and it sounds bad because I don’t practice. And I was like halfway through the second sentence when she realized what I was doing and her eyes went all wide and she squealed. And her being excited made me excited haha and now I want to practice it more. It’s tough though, it’s a tough thing. I want to work on it but it can feel a bit silly at times, like I’m performing somehow. It will take some time to get away from that feeling so that I can appreciate the truth which is that the boy voice was the real performance all along. My natural speaking voice is, and it’s hard to admit this I guess, but it has what some people would refer to as a gay affectation to it. And I’ve always just sort of hidden it away. No one has ever really heard me speak naturally. I have always been acting. Since I begun my transition, I’ve been letting more of it out in daily speech. Little bit of vocal fry here and there, little bit of valley girl twang. No one seems to really notice or care.

It rained all week last week and I felt like shit for days. Today it’s supposed to rain again and I’m like ugh. Enough with the sky water please. But in any case I feel pretty good. Oh, I’ve started up a new character on Skyrim! Trying out Skyrim Special Edition. They ported the game to 64 bit so it runs way better now than the original PC version did. I waited like a whole year since this new version came out so that the modders could move everything over. It’s pretty fun actually. So often I find myself unable to enjoy a game because it feels pointless. But in this case I am kind of just using it as a distraction from my other addiction issues. And it’s working well. I’ve been watching all these lore videos on youtube and it’s got me excited about TES universe and finding various secrets and things that I never knew about before. I’ve probably put like a thousand hours or more into Skyrim over the years and there is somehow still stuff in the game that I haven’t seen. Literally within like an hour of starting the new game I discovered a dungeon I had never seen before with a unique item reward I didn’t even know existed. My character is a femme Breton mage who I named Simone after Simone de Beauvoir. Mostly pure mage but some archery and stealth as well. Usually when I roll mages I end up spec’ing Battlemage or Spellsword but this time I want to try to do full mage with no armor or hand to hand weapons at all. In all this time I’ve spent in Skyrim I never bothered to have my mage characters learn armor spells or wards. There is a new mod that adds a bunch of new lore-friendly spells including proximity runes that you can set as traps, I haven’t even tried them yet and I’m already excited about how that will change my play style. I’ve been playing from the time I get home til around midnight for the last 2 nights. Helps keep my mind off drinking and smoking and keeps me away from the roommates so I don’t do or say anything stupid that could affect their perception of me. Cus that’s a whole thing I have to worry about yayyy. The other night I was drinking with N and somehow she got me like confessing about how I smoke so much because of my social anxiety and shit and she was like “really???? oh that’s so interesting” smh and I think she really meant that, what a weirdo. I almost came out to her right there haha. Like, oh you think that’s something? Wait til you hear what I’ve done to my endocrine system...

Ok gotta shave and stuff and get ready to go. *sashayyyyy away*

EDIT: Oh shit, bossman just texted me and said to stay home! FUCK YES SKYRIM ALL DAY OMGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG

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edjonespom-blog · 6 years

Text

Events Management: Live Event Roundup

We had 4 cars for the day, Chris hunt watts, who took Courteney and Conor (we had helped Chris and Conor at Tea Rex so they offered to help us with our event), Millie from cut the cord media who was taking pictures and showcasing art at the event. Then we had Emsy and glen from our group, Emsy took our headliner jazzy and all her equipment, and glen took art

Courteney, Chris and Conor arrived first at 12:00 at the arts house and unloaded the PA, Courteney’s mixing desk, mic stand, cables and busking amp. Glen and Pippa arrived with all their art at 12:45, shortly after the first artists starting arriving, greeted by Courteney and Conor. Emsy arrived at the arts house at around 1 and unloaded Jazzy's keyboard, guitar and amp. I arrived with cut the cord media at around 2, and helped set up the rest of the art for the display. At the same time, Courteney, Conor and Chris put extra posters around Bristol, and at 2:30 Courteney, Chris and Aaron went to hand out flyers at Cabot circus, but they quickly moved closer to the venue because Cabot didn’t have the audience we were looking for. Glen suggested that Courteney stood outside the venue for a bit and try and hand out the rest of the flyers. The flyers outside the arts house were much more effective, with more people taking them and even some of the people showing up to the event as well.

At 3 the doors opened for our art section of the event, with 17(?) people coming buying tickets at the £2 rate during the art section. No art was sold except one picture from Cut the Cord media, for £10(?). The art part ran smoothly for the most part, with a playlist i made of majority local Bristol bands to compliment the local art on show. (Insert playlist picture here)

At 6, our first musicians, Stevie and the Masquerades showed up. Me, Courteney and a couple others went to go unload their car of their equipment, which we put at the area where the stage was going to be later during the gig. BAAST, our second act of the night, showed up with their equipment about 10 minutes later, which they took in by themselves. Bobby Scaife arrived at 6:30 with his equipment. At the same time, Glen and a couple others re-organised the room after the art finished and set up the PA, stage and seating. Jazzy sound checked at 6:45, BAAST sound checked at 7:10 and Stevie sound checked at 7:40. Doors had opened for the gig at 7, and the gig was supposed to start at 8, however due to sound check starting later than expected, the gig started at 8:30 instead, putting us behind schedule. Stevie and Jazzy both had EPs sales during the event, which we were happy about.

The timings of the sets were as follows:

Stevie and the Masquerades: 8:30 - 9:00

Bobby Scaife: 9:25 - 9:50

BAAST: 10:15 - 10:45

Jazzy Heath: 11:15 - 11:45

There were also interviews with all of the bands throughout the event. The first interview was with our headliner Jazzy Heath at 5:15, Stevie was then interviewed at 7. Both of these interviews were filmed by Courteney and the questions were asked by Emsy on camera. Later on, BAAST were interviewed at 9, and Bobby Scaife was interviewed at 10. For these two interviews, I filmed the interviews whilst Courteney asked the questions on camera.

The arts house had asked us to have left by midnight, however they were ok with us running a couple minutes over, as we had packed down and cleared out by 00:05. Giles (co-manager of the Arts House Cafe) was very happy about how the gig turned out and the reception of the gig, and said to me and Courteney that he would love to have us put on another gig on at some point in the future.

Lessons from the live event

Exhibition:

Change the date or timing of the event. A lot of people who were upstairs eating in the cafe section of the arts house expressed interest in the art exhibition, but couldn't go to it as they were on their lunch break and the exhibition started later than they could stay. So either we could've moved it forward a couple hours, or changed the date to a Friday or the weekend so that those people could've come whenever they wanted.

Another thing to learn from the exhibition was storage. Fortunately, the Arts House Cafe allowed us to store the art in their management room during the gig, but if we couldn't do that then the art would've had to sit through the gig which could've potentially damaged the art.

The positives we learnt from the art exhibitions were that a rather large number of people are actually interested in going to see an independent art exhibition, and that we could potentially make a series of gigs which focus around a mix of art exhibitions and gigs, as this could be a unique selling point for Ghazt Management gigs in Bristol.

Gig:

There were a few large things we need to take away from the gig aspect of our live event. The first one of these was the timing of the gig itself. The gig itself started late, at 8:30 rather than 8, and instead of the 15-minute changeover gaps between artists, there were all between 25 and 30 minutes. This was partly due to the large amount of equipment that Stevie and the Masquerades and BAAST had, but also due to us as management not being forceful (?) enough with the artists to get on and off stage quickly, as some of the bands took a little too long setting up.

As mentioned earlier, next time we program the artists for our gig in a small venue space like The Arts House Café, we need to consider the amount of large equipment (keyboards, drum pads, samplers) that the bands we booked for this event had. Only Bobby Scaife from our list of artists had a reasonably small setup, which did impact not only the change over time between bands, but also the storage space in the venue itself, which was already small.

Some things we learned from the Gig were positive though. We learned that whilst we didn’t draw in a massive crowd, there are people in Bristol who are very involved and willing to go see an independent art exhibitions and gig combination, and that the on the day marketing helped to pull in local people. Our online marketing was also strong, combined with the outreach of Ghazt Management meant that quite a few people from outside of UoG also came and saw the gig.

Having our event outside Cheltenham again meant that we gained a valuable contact inside of the Bristol music scene in The Arts House Café, who were very happy to have us back to host more gigs in their venue. This will help Ghazt Management gain more of a foothold in the Bristol music scene, and expand outside of Cheltenham.

#Events Management #MD5212

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todaysbiggesthits · 7 years

Text

The Exam

Best Music Moment of 2017:

Code: dancing out the entire wedding reception playlist with my best girl on an empty concrete slab on a breezy texas night

BC: -The absolute stellar dance party at Codemin’s Wedding; most notably:

“Carol” by The Rolling Stones

“Enjoy the Silence” by Depeche Mode

“Crystal” by New Order

-OK Computer’s 20th Anniversary and the listening/reflection that came with it -My four year old, Emmett, learning “Maps” on the drums pretty much on his own

JD: February: Watching the “Emotional Rescue” scene in A Bigger Splash:

youtube

March: Seeing Stop Making Sense on the big screen at my favorite theater with m’gal and a David Byrne Q&A after the screening. April: The dance party of a lifetime at Code and Arden’s wedding. November: Watching Parquet Courts play “You’ve Got Me Wondering Now” for the first time in years.

C: "Born to Run" at a good friend's, Brian Ferguson's, wedding.

Nasty: This playing at the end of Leftovers Season 3, Ep 5 - "The Most Powerful Man in the World"

Bronco: Sitting on my back porch with Brenny, sipping down some delicious whiskey drinks and listening to the new Mastodon on a surprisingly unshitty Amazon bluetooth speaker. Watching his face on the breakdown in Jaguar God was quite entertaining. Also listening to the Squalus album (the metal interpretation of Jaws) with the kids, my oldest asking what it was, and him saying he wants to watch Jaws now. He was especially fascinated by the USS Indianapolis part of the story.

Laser: This

Chap: My 17 has been dominated by the two new ladies in my life. I made this mix for them:

and played it for them on random the morning they were born. This was the first song that came on:

and I finally broke down with emotion after the 36 hour experience while holding one of them while this song was playing:

Best Shows Seen in 2017:

BC: This first 60 seconds of this:

youtube

Nasty: Future Islands & Action Bronson

Larse: Future Islands with Maddie, Nasty, and Sam; Action Bronson at The Rave - pretty sure I got a contact high just from being in the show

C: War on Drugs

Bronco: Mastodon

Codem: lvl up - beat kitchen kitten forever - subterranean downstairs ovlov - beat kitchen pqc - the bottle girlpool - logan square auditorium moving units’ joy division cover set - the bottle PAWS - cobra lounge a. savage - the bottle pictureplane

JD: 1. William Basinski and Julianna Barwick at National Sawdust 2. No Age at Elsewhere 3. Parquet Courts and B-Boys at Elsewhere 4. Liars at Warsaw 5. Deerhunter and Eleanor Friedberger performing while Bradford Cox painted her portrait onstage at Warsaw 6. LCD Soundsystem at Brooklyn Steel 7. Yo La Tengo in Central Park 8. Andrew WK at Warsaw 9. Vince Staples at Panorama Fest 10. Wire at Baby’s All Right 11. Vagabon at Brooklyn Bazaar

Confession of 2017:

Bronco: I listened to the New Kids On The Block offering of 2017 "Thankful" (it was fucking terrible).

C: Still haven’t listened to LCD Soundsystem

Code: -knowing the backstory, the mount eerie album was probably the best album i heard this year, but it was too dang sad to listen to more than a handful of times. -i still loved that brand new song despite the lead cat being a creep. -i thought that this year was pretty rough for music, but my tune changed after looking back through my top tracks. maybe there were just so few full albums that i liked? -i fast fwd'd through every SNL musical guest this calendar year, but i did catch the tom petty tribute from the vegas countrymin.

BC: I don’t hate that objectively awful Chainsmokers/Coldplay song because it reminds me of this year’s BOB since Creevey played it every twenty minutes for 36 holes.

Larson: Listened to more rap this year than I think I have in past years; must be Nasty's Lincoln influence!

Nasty: I listened to more podcasts than music in 17.

Biggest Disappointment of 2017:

Laser: LCD Soundsystem

Codem: -no chromatics this year. -the two lcd shows that i saw this year.

Chap: The albums. I would not be shocked if I didn't listen to any of my top 15 all the way through after today.

Bin: DJT

JD: Mondanile

BC: Real Estate. I think they need to invite the perv back into the band.

Bronco: Bison, Monolord, Godspeed You! Black Emperor, And So I Watch You From Afar. They all put out albums this year, and I've like their stuff in the past, but they did little to nothing for me this time around.

Most Overrated of 2017:

Codem: slowdive, but also twod and japanese breakfast

Bin: Bodak Yellow / Cardi B

Larse: LCD Soundsystem

Bronco: -Pallbearer - just don't like the guy's voice, and though they're slow as shit, there's no good riffs or anything to connect with for me. -Code Orange - hardcore band that I just don't get. One of those 'motherfucker I'm the best!' type super close to being alt-right supremecy type bands even though they're probably completely against it. They're at the top of most metal lists this year. I've given them 4-5 spins, most in reaction to the praise they're getting, but I just don't get it. -Royal Thunder - just one big case of blue balls. All of their songs seemingly build toward a climax that never happens. It's just so blech.

JD: Did the music press even treat anything as a lasting work of art and not ephemeral content to get through a week or two of famous personality driven clicks? King Krule?

BC: Lorde, I think? I mean, that album’s gotten a lot of love this year and I thought the lead single – “Green Light” – was hot garbage. It spawned a conspiracy theory in my mind that Taylor Swift was proactively influencing and then purposefully sabotaging the work of her close friends (see Lorde, Haim, et al).

Make it Stop 2017

Bronco: Sex monsters. Can we just take all white dudes in powerful positions, assume they've sexually assaulted at least one person, imprison them, and move on? We could take everything they have, give it all to Native American tribes, then force them to walk their own trail of tears to live out their lives in the desserts of New Mexico, and force them to build the wall, but it would just be a wall around their sad sex monster reservation.

Also, Taylor Swift.

Nasty: I didn't have the luxury of expending any real hate on music this year... which I'm just now recognizing as a bad thing.

JD: -Unceasing sadness and anxiety about the present and future. -Jack Antonoff

BC: Life on this planet.

Code: any rap station that i hear in an uber. that cardi b song was playing every time i caught a cab at 5:30 a.m. to play golf.

Larson: U2

Biggest TBH Regret of 2017:

BC: Not seeing NIN at RiotFest

Larson: Skipping the Car Seat Headrest show at Summerfest because I could tell Maddie didn't want to leave Jonas' party (party was fun, so not a real loss, just wish I would have seen the show).

Nasty: Not even giving new artists a chance. I'll listen to an average album from The National 10x's before I give someone new a shot.

Codebreaker: not having an opportunity to karaoke badu's tyrone

JD: -Had the worst fever of my life during LCD and could only manage standing in the back shivering. -Forgetting to go see Dinner at Baby’s All Right. -Not enough time with Bjork, Miguel, and Blanck Mass.

Bronco: Fucked up the family calendar maintenance and ended up not being able to see the Toadies and Local H. I was pissed at my wife, but it wasn't the end of the world. I haven't listened to either in forever, and the listen I gave to the Toadies latest offering didn't knock my socks off. It was really just for nostalgic purposes. Still it sucked to have to miss it despite my best efforts to bring it to her attention multiple times.

Detective Murtaugh of 2017:

NACK: I had two separate opportunities to see LCD, and just didn't feel like putting in the effort. Was going to put this as a regret, but I don't regret it.

Code: i skipped 7 shows that i had tickets for and left 6 shows early. two shows i left early due to brightness of lights. mmmmmnhh

JD: Couldn’t hear for 18 hours after No Age. Needed two Tylenol for the headache I gave myself during “You’ve Got Me Wondering Now” at PQ Quartz.

BC: Having no idea who either the SNL host or the musical guest was for three straight weeks. Tiffany Haddish? Saoirse Ronan? SZA? I’m too old for this shit…

Nasty: Carson, Maddie, Sam and I went to watch the IU game this weekend with one of Carson's co-workers (an IU grad) who is 23.... I got rolling on a rant about how important it is to enjoy your 20s because after the impending onslaught of weddings and babies life basically isn't any fun anymore. Suspect it was a little too impassioned by the end.

Bronco: I was enrolled in a three month coding bootcamp to learn Web Development. Aside from the two older ladies (50+) and the weird Brazilian idiot (45+), I was the oldest person in the room by probably an average of 13 years. They are all for the most part life-pivoting in to the dev world and they all have all the time in the world to learn new shit, do whatever they want, whenever they want...goddamnit I miss that. So maybe this is my "too married and fathered for this shit" section of the exam.

C: Wife’s Pregnancy

Laser: Every time I wake up with a fucking hangover and tell myself that I’m not gonna drink like that again only to get back on the saddle the next available opportunity.

Resolution for 2017 Update:

BC: Put a goddamn band together. How it went:

C: Check out some jazz/blues in Chicago. How it went: FAILED

Larson: Focus on the shit I really care about instead of trying to listen to everything posted on the thread…I’m just going to have to be honest with myself and realize I ain’t got time for all this media! How it went: Terrible; found myself listening to Timeless Pop Rock hits playlist more than anything else.

Chap: Check out more of the recommendations on the TBH thread. Try to organize get-togethers around TWO shows. How it went: Actually not bad. I had a few solid period during nap times when I didn't feel like working. I think I was able to listen to every album I wanted to at least once.

Code: make concerted effort to listen to music that i liked in previous years in addition to music from the current year. How it went: i nailed my resolution, as i devoted four full months to the grateful dead and it was the best musical trimester of the year for me. it was really interesting to watch all of the new music pile up and never once feeling compelled to listen to something else. god damn did the '77 version of the band have it all figured out. i could listen to any uptown mississippi halfstep toodeloo from that year at any time.

Bronco: Learn the guitar. I’ve been fooling around with Rocksmith (guitar hero with real guitar) and I want to push myself to execute the more complex chords, not just stick to the powerchord simple songs like Blitzkrieg Bop, and start learning how to build and execute a solo. I also want to distill my own whiskey, build a garden shed from scratch, and learn to code. How it went: I haven't quite mastered the guitar, but I can play a few songs fairly well. I did not start working on my own whiskey or build a garden shed from scratch...yet. But I did learn to code. I am now at conversational levels of fluency with Javascript and at "donde es el bano" levels with Ruby and Python.

Nasty: See a show in NY with JD. How it went: Not great, Bob! I barely made it down the street to see Action Bronson with Laser

JD: Seeing more shows with you guys is an evergreen resolution. How it went: To quote BC,

Resolution for 2018:

BC: No more resolutions

C: Catch some jazz in Chicago

Laser: get my list in on time!

Chap: While I didn't have the occasion to catch shows this year, I anticipate doing so in '18 due to some changes afoot.

Codem: make more playlists for my wife

Bronco: Get in shape. I want to stick to a schedule of running all year round. I ran a 10K back in June, then needed to recover for a bit, been recovering ever since...Fat Dad needs to keep running all year round without excuse, especially given that we go skiing between Xmas and New Year's and I'm gonna be a floppy legged mess. During those runs, I'll try to listen to new material each time.

Bin: I'm just going to keep saying "get to NY for a show with JD" until I make it happen.

JD: See you gents more often with or without a show attached.

Most Anticipated of 2018:

C: MBV

JD: MBV, No Age, Panda Bear, something surprising

Code: chromatics (i think it's really coming this year), mbv, no age, DOM, CCFX full album

Bronco: Tool. Fourth year's the charm...fuck those guys. It better suck me off when it finally does come out. Also a new Sleep album and a new High on Fire album...still waitin' on those too.

BC: Simple Minds, Vampire Weekend, Kanye

Nasty: Kanye, ASAP Rocky, Rhye, Chromeo, Vampire Weekend

Chap: After a quick glance at the list... Vampire Weekend, Kanye, Chromatics

Larse: Honestly don't even know what is on the horizon, just hope I can listen to it with this net neutrality bullshit!

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houstonlocalus-blog · 8 years

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Wasted Years: The Best of The Week

Ruiners. Photo: Courtesy of Artist/Facebook

The new year is definitely in full swing while the city gets closer to the inevitable splash over we’ll experience in March from SXSW. While we wait for cold weather to hopefully return, there’s plenty happening throughout the Bayou City this week. This week features sets from psych rockers Christian Bland & the Revelators, Dark Blue and Guilla, as well as “We Belong: Houstonians of Muslim Descent Dissent,” a protest show featuring Giant Kitty, Turnaways, Ruiners and more. Houston, your next seven days are all planned out.

On Wednesday you could kick off the week at Warehouse Live in the studio for the popular post hardcore sounds of Nevada’s Falling In Reverse. These guys aren’t my cup of tea, but they have millions of Spotify plays and they tend to pack out a room every time they perform, and they’re here in support of their latest release, the single “Coming Home.” The metalcore of Atlanta’s Issues will be on as direct support while Pennsylvania’s Motionless In White will go on prior. Ohio’s Dangerkids are also on the bill and things get opened by Dead Girls Academy with doors at 5:30 pm and tickets between $27.50 and $32.

If you were lucky enough to grab tickets for the Netflix comedy special taping for rapper turned comic Chingo Bling at Heights Theater, then you should be in for a treat. I don’t know how funny he is on his own, but opening performances from Jesus Sepulveda, Jerry Garcia, and John Stringer should get things going nicely. Though the two sets are sold out, the doors for the 1st show are at 6:30 pm and the second has doors at 9 pm.

If you really like the band Tame Impala, then you could head to Satellite Bar for their Tame Impala night. Derek from the bands Mantra Love and Mojave Red will spin his favorite Tame Impala jams and more for the all ages show with doors at 8 pm and it’s 100% FREE.

Thursday you should head to House of Blues when the venue and The Secret Group present the always hilarious Iliza Shlesinger. While her last Netflix special Freezing Hot proved how funny she can be, she already has another one coming later this year, which will more than likely be the material she’ll be performing. While there’s no word of host or featured act, the all ages show with doors at 7 pm has tickets between $29.50 and $35.

Rhett Miller. Photo: ATO Records

The Heights Theater will have Evan Felker of Turnpike Troubadours over to perform. Felker hasn’t dropped a solo album yet but he’s dropped a couple of solo tracks like “Bottoms Up” that echo his bigger band and sound pretty grand. He has a pretty great direct support act in Rhett Miller of Old 97’s. Miller has released solo work and his last release The Traveler sounded like the kind of sound Jeff Tweedy has been trying a lifetime to achieve. The all ages show has doors at 7 pm and it’s since sold out.

Nightingale Room will host a barn burner when Guilla returns to drop a set at the Main street venue. Guilla has been working hard as usual, including taping a recent submission to Tint Desk and on the heels of his bangin’ mixtape, last year’s Rap, Trap & Drums-Vol. II and his full length Children of The Sun his performance should be as energy crazed as usual. Not to be outdone, iLL Faded will be on beforehand and should bring his two releases from last year, It’s Okay To Be Happy and No Big Deal to life. The 21 & up show has doors at 7 pm and it’s 100% FREE.

Over at Improv you could catch the beginning of a weekend of shows with the always funny jokes of Ralphie May. The last time he was here he donated a ton of money to a Houston comic, he’s been on pretty much every place that’ll have him, and he sells out shows all over the globe. His latest album, last year’s Just Correct has the Houston born and LA transplanted comic in rare form. As per all of these shows, two of Houston’s better comics will serve as host and one as feature act for the 18 & up shows with tickets between $25 and $50. This show has doors at 7:15 pm.

Psalm Zero. Photo: Courtesy of Artist/Facebook/Profound Lore Records

Walter’s will have the new industrial metal sounds of NYC’s Psalm Zero. Hailed by critics on their recent release Stranger To Violence, the group has former members of Castevet and Extra Life, and they’ve gotten praise for their intense live shows. The band has a melody driven metal sound that utilizes precise sounds and synths to add to their already diverse sound. The darkwave of Houston’s Buoyant Spirit will open things up and provide direct support for the all ages show with doors at 8 pm and tickets between $7 and $10.

Mucky Duck has Austin’s off kilter rockers Darkbird in town to perform. I say off kilter because they have a very different sound with traditional rock elements and a singer who has the voice of the past. I’ve never seen them perform, but with a voice that rivals Stevie Nicks, their last album I Remember Feeling My Fingers Slip is pretty impressive. The 21 & up show gets going around 9:30 pm and has tickets between $20 and $22.

Friday you could get started at Rockefellers for their Inauguration Day Ball. The show, which will feature the highly charged punk sounds of Houston’s The Satanic Overlords of Rock N’ Roll as headliners, should be an exercise in freedom of speech while we still have them. Things only get more heated up before with sets from The Velostacks, Killer Hearts, and The Burns all on beforehand. While Hell’s Engine will go on prior and D Kosmo will open the show up. The all ages affair has doors at 7 pm and there’s a measly $8 cover.

Dark Blue. Photo: Drip Audio Records

The delco punk of Philadelphia’s Dark Blue will be on full display over at Satellite Bar. These guys have been hailed by critics everywhere, they’ve become well known for a killer live show, and their newest album Start Of The World is pretty damn fantastic. Houston’s LACE, who is the band’s direct support for their Texas dates will bring their intense hardcore on beforehand, and the crazed hardcore energy Black Coffee will be on prior. The throwback sounds of Narrow Head will open the all ages show with doors at 8 pm and tickets for $10.

If you weren’t aware, the inauguration of a reality show star is happening in DC, but in protest to that idiot’s racist remarks towards Muslims, Houston artists of Muslim descent will be performing in protest over at Walters at the We Belong show. A headlining set from screeching punks Giant Kitty will energetically headline the night while the crazed energy and new wave punk of Houston’s Ruiners will be on before. Seriously, Shan of Ruiners booked this show and if you missed their last album Wasted Years, then you’re missing one of the city’s best new bands. The garage tinged pop punk of Houston’s Turnaways will bring their stellar new album Summer Love to life prior while the crazy punk of Houston’s Revels open the all ages show with doors at 8 pm and tickets for $10 with all benefits going to the ACLU.

New York City Queens. Photo: DO Photography

Over at White Oak Music Hall upstairs you could catch a one off reunion and thank you to fans, when Houston’s New York City Queens reunite one last time. The Houston five piece went through a lot before calling it quits at Beer Fest two years ago, so this is a goodbye to all who supported the band over the years. The energetic indie rock of Houston’s Young Girls will provide direct support and the electro pop of Camera Cult will open the all ages show with doors at 8 pm and tickets for $10.

Last Concert Cafe will host the Americana meets indie folk pop of Denver’s Paper Bird. This eclectic six piece makes music that’s like a breath of fresh air mixed with a family party atmosphere. Their latest album, last year’s Paper Bird is a little more pop induced, but the vocals are impressive to say the least. The country sounds of Lucas Eason & the Panhandlers will open the all ages show with doors at 9 pm and tickets between $10 and $12.

We Were Wolves. Photo: Randy Edwards/Courtesy of Artist

In the Bronze Peacock Room at House of Blues, you can catch loud and party fueled rockers, We Were Wolves performing a set. The Beaumont born and Houston transplants have done everything from play multiple festivals to touring with The Dwarves. Their last EP, Ruin Your Weekend was definitely on point and they’re worth making it our for. The blues rock of San Antonio’s Levees will open the all ages show that gets going around 9 pm and it’s 100% FREE.

Boondocks will host another edition of the always jam heavy BLACKOUT shows. Alongside the Blackout DJ’s, this edition will feature the tropical sounds of LA’s ORO 11. Known for starting the label Bersa Discos and crafting the Tormenta Tropical parties, this guy can drop the hammer when it comes to performing live so get ready to get down. Visuals by Leckie will more than likely be on hand to light up the room for the 21 & up show that gets going around 10 pm. The show FREE before 11 pm with RSVP found here, or $5 after.

On Saturday you can swing by Vinal Edge to catch a rare solo acoustic set from Lubbock country legend Terry Allen. Allen is the torch bearer for that blend of Texas, beer drinkin’, and hell raisin’ music, and his last album Lubbock (on everything) is pretty damn stellar. The all ages event gets going around 3 pm, there’s gratis beverages for the adults from No Label, and you can catch him later at Heights Theater for his full live set too.

If you’d rather get your art hat on, then you could head to El Bambi for their art show, Erase/Rewind by FLATS. Works from Meredith Richey, Rye Francisco, and many more will be on hand for the all ages event that runs from 6 pm to 9pm, and has gratis drinks and beer for those who can legally have it.

Mucky Duck will have the roots sounds of Houston’s Jack Saunders over to perform. Saunders is one of the most unsung artists in our city, and his voice is an epic tone that sounds like he’s been telling his tale for decades. His last release, 2012’s A Real Good Place To Start is a beautiful tale that’s hard to put down. The 21 & up show has doors at 7 pm and tickets between $20 and $22.

Christian Bland. Photo: Ground Control Touring

Things will get all trippy at Walters when Christian Bland & the Revelators will bring their psych garage sound to town. Bland is best known as the guitarist for The Black Angels, but honestly, he’s much more than that. This band is solid live, and their last full length from 2014 The Unseen Green Obstacle is a real trip. The bluesy tunes of Houston’s Vanilla Whale will be on as direct support while Futurelic will open the all ages show with doors at 7 pm and a $10 cover.

At Fitzgerald’s you can spend an evening with indie pop singer songwriter Jack Thweatt. Inspirational, possibly religious, or whatever you want to call him, his songs are catchy to say the least, and his new album You Take Me Back from last year sticks in your head. There’s no word of openers yet but that could change for the all ages show with doors at 8 pm and tickets between $10 and $15.

The Hammer Party. Photo: Courtesy of Artist/Bandcamp

At Notsuoh you could get down with Arizona’s The Darts. The all female garage psych four piece has a reputation for a crazed live set, and their new release The Darts EP 2 is pretty chaotic. The horror themed sounds of Houston’s Brumes will be on as direct support while the amazing lo-fi garage punk of Huntsville’s The Hammer Party will open the 21 & up show with doors at 8 pm and it’s 100% FREE.

Over at Khon’s you can get your dance going when android genius comes out of exile to drop a set. It doesn’t seem like it’s been over a year since he dropped the trippy and dance heavy sounds of /\, but it’s been too long since he’s been out performing. Hood Ethernet will drop dance grooves as direct support while the electronic beats of REZ and the experimental hip hop of slw.kng will go on prior. The experimental trippiness of MLCBR will be on before and Hakeem will open the all ages show with doors at 9 pm and a $5 cover.

Sunday you can head to Civic TV for a new show series called Prof. Wiggins Sunday Matinee Series. This edition will feature sets from TEE VEE and The Wiggins. A DJ set from PKRL8R will also be on hand for the 100% FREE all ages and BYOB show with doors at 4 pm.

Christian Kidd. Photo: Alexis Kidd

Rudyard’s will host a benefit for Christian Kidd of The Hates with a headlining set from The Hates. I have to question why the guy should have to play his own benefit, but that aside, The Hates have been a staple in the Houston music scene since before there was a scene. Also, Christian has played more of these kind of benefits than pretty much anyone else in town, so it’s kind of your duty as a Houston musician or fan to attend. The Texas Mod Crushers will go on before with a set from Screech of Death on before them. Gut Radio will open the 21 & up event with doors at 6 pm and a $10 cover/donation.

On Tuesday you can catch Sci-Fi Movie Night at The Secret Group. This premiere edition will be hosted by Houston’s Guilla, and will feature the film Akira. Given the rapper’s love and knowledge of the film and the character, he’s the fitting host for this 100% FREE all ages event with doors at 8pm.

That’s about all that’s happening around town this week, No matter what you decide to do, remember that drinking like an adult is what’s best for you and everyone else, so be responsible and get a safe ride home.

Wasted Years: The Best of The Week this is a repost

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