#i just got my ballot for the primaries in the US and you best believe i will be checking every box
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a vaguely-presidential looking seal appears on your dashboard to the sound of trumpets--
and my large, sweaty face appears on your screen. even through the low resolution of the pre-recorded broadcast you can tell that the gel is melting out of my hair and my suit is ill-fitting.
hello fellow musers. 2024 is an election year for large chunks of the planet. primaries are well underway for many. we all love to vote here, and i would like to encourage those of you eligible to make sure that you participate in your country's elections this cycle!
recall the number of polls over the last year that we had no business winning because all of us came together and voted as one. even if that song or album wasn't our favorite. even when we didn't win. even when all it got us 2nd or 3rd place. i want you to bring that optimism and determination to the ballot box this year.
this doesn't apply just to presidential elections, but to any local races that may be underway as well. participation in local elections is lower, and your individual vote has greater sway in a smaller voting pool. this is truly where you have the opportunity to make outsized changes to the politics of your immediate area. these changes in local politics can and will result in greater changes further up the chain.
encourage your friends, musers or not, to go vote as well. go online to search for local resources that can ensure that your vote ends up being counted if work, disability, or other circumstances hamper you (your votes matter even more!).
i'm aware that it feels tired saying this in 2024, especially for those of us in the united states who will most likely have to choose between trump and biden once again. but i hope that i can convince you of the importance of not abandoning the most vulnerable of us in allowing greater demagogues to take power and at the very least, the ability to say that you did your part to preserve democracy in a time when the very future of voting is uncertain.
but this can't be the end of it. voting out of fear of the greater evil and pinching your nose every time cannot be what motivates us. fear is exhausting and can be exhausted in a short period of time, but the world order will not change overnight and we cannot expect it to with one election. instead, we have to let ourselves be motivated by love. dare yourself to love your fellow citizens, to want better for them and yourself, to believe that we all deserve better and that "better" is within our grasp.
feed someone. attend a protest. talk about your wages at work. question dichotomies. we maintain what we have, support one another, and grow. even a relatively small number of people can do powerful things when we all work together. i've seen it happen here, and it can happen anywhere, even on the scale of nations.
see you all at the polls!
#i post#muse#muse band#i couch this in silly language but fr go vote guys#i just got my ballot for the primaries in the US and you best believe i will be checking every box
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VOTER REGISTRATION: COMPLETE Goodness, i was so worried about that. Also, i registered as a republican this time around to vote in the republican primaries to give better candidates a chance and forgot i did this, so i got the republican primary ballot and i was like ??????? what is going on. lol. anyway after going through and voting on my ballot, i'm glad i switched parties when i registered under my new name. the two party system isn't working to represent the majority of people, but it is what we have and if we wish to change it we have to participate in the democratic experiment to get changes like ranked-choice voting to exist. it is a good reminder, reading up on all the candidates for the republican party up for the various seats in this election, that there are those who are in either party who believe in continuing to be a democracy, who want to be in office to help the citizens who vote for them, and who take the job seriously. and there are those who are far less qualified to take these seats. there's a guy on my ballot who's a registered republican who's talking about environmental conservation, supreme court term limits, he's not a perfect candidate, but perfection doesn't exist anyway and he's the best out of the competition on the ballot. there are decent people who work in politics that we can put in office, or at least, get on the election ballots to give our counties, states, and entire country a chance to be better, represent the people better, and give us as a people a better chance to fight climate destruction. i vote from abroad. as a dual citizen i vote in two countries, where i live and where i was born. you have a right to vote, but also you have a responsibility to vote. if you can vote in the place that you live, why not take part? why not ensure your voice is heard? i'm sure there are pot holes in your roads you want fixed, or you don't like the turn education curricula has taken in eliminating learning phonics, or you want to ensure trans kids and adults can access the care they need and are treated as people in public -- there are so many things on every ballot that can change the area you live in for the better, that can help so many people for the better, and that can make the future a more hopeful possibility.
if you can vote, take the time to learn your candidates (i use ballotpedia as a starting point) and participate especially because there are people around you who cannot vote for various reasons, and if you value community take the time out of your day to cast your ballot to see the changes you wish to see happen. voting isn't a quick-fix solution to anything, it's not a five-minute craft. politics is a long term goal system. we vote to get people in power now who are slightly better than the last guard so in x years time we have people in power who really push the needle when we look back at attitudes today. i think, for a lot of voters, the fact that it takes a long time to see and enact change is discouraging, and i get it. it is. it would be amazing if we could fix things quickly, but unfortunately that's not the world that we live in. get yourself a pie-in-the-sky dream for the world you want to see, and start voting for people now who aren't perfect, who don't fully realize that dream, but who help us toe a little closer to that reality. afterall, how long did it take you to be who you are today? it certainly didn't happen overnight and you're just one person. when it comes to voting and the politics of an entire country, that's millions of people, of course it'll take a while.
#voting#2024 elections#get out and vote#every election matters#and yes#i mean every election#and no i'm not a republican i mean like legally i am now i guess#but the point of registering for this party is strategy of trying to get it to change
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Here’s my political hot take: if you don’t consistently vote in not only your local elections, but your local primaries, I do not give a shit about your opinions on the current state of party policy nationally. I was 17 in November of 2016, it was the last election I was unable to vote in, and it crushed me, made me feel like I was powerless to help people around me, so I have made a point to learn about candidates in every local primary and general election and actually vote for progressive change at every level.
I’ve seen this fail, of course, there was a progressive candidate for state senate from my district who lost to a more moderate incumbent, there was a clerk of courts candidate this year who was pushing hard for justice system reform who got blown out by a 20 year incumbent. I’ve also seen this work, that state senate candidate ran for city Councelor a few years later and won a seat by less than 20 votes.
What I’ve never seen is someone within 10 years of my age at a voting booth during a local primary election. My voting district encompasses a college, I vote on a college campus and have never seen any college students voting in the local primaries.
The one thing politicians care about above all else is keeping their jobs, especially on the national level you have to appeal to a large enough group of people who actually vote in order to have a chance at winning. If you don’t show them that you’re someone who goes out and votes they will not try to appeal to you, and I get why people don’t want to vote for presidential candidates who are at best complicit in genocide, but I guarantee that there are candidates on your local primary ballot who agree with you enough to be someone worth fighting for.
If young progressives turned out for local primaries at the same rate that old conservatives do the candidates at the state level would have no choice but to move further left to attempt to capture that new voting block. And once that happens at the state level enough it would begin to be reflected nationally.
I get that all that sounds overly optimistic, but we exist within a system, and the ONLY way to actually have leverage against politicians is to be someone who they could count on to vote their way who is threatening to not vote for them. If you never vote and are threatening to not vote that’s not a threat, that’s the status quo and you’re maintaining it.
Especially on the local level this can work extremely effectively, the young progressive who won a city council seat by less that 20 votes? The Councelor he unseated had tied himself closely to a mayoral candidate who was spouting off dangerous rhetoric. I had voted for that Councelor in the previous city council election, but 20 of us who did before didn’t this time because we disagreed with where he’d aligned himself, and that was enough to ACTUALLY MAKE CHANGE.
If you don’t vote at every opportunity then you don’t get a say, literally, that’s not me being rude that’s me explaining how the system works. Ideologically, leftist ideals are more popular now than ever, but that isn’t reflected in elections because young progressives have incredibly low voting rates.
“I’m sick of voting for the lesser of two evils” great news you don’t have to if you actually bothered to learn about your local primary candidates. There are actual opportunities to not only mitigate harm but to ACTUALLY CHANGE THINGS FOR THE BETTER and A LOT of people in my generation with similar ideals just sit at home when given that opportunity.
If someone who consistently voted came up to me and said “I’m not willing to vote in this presidential election because I cannot support Kamala Harris because she supports genocide” I would disagree with them because while I believe that any amount of genocide is morally repugnant I also believe that less genocide is always preferable to more genocide. But I would listen, I would care about their opinion and I would be willing to let myself be swayed.
But when someone who never votes tells me they’re sitting out this election for whatever reason I don’t give a shit, because they’re not taking a stand, they’re doing nothing, which they always do, and that’s not activism that’s just lazy.
TL;DR: I don’t care about your opinions about the status quo unless you’ve actually taken the simplest step possible to try and change it.
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Day 67: Thursday March 7, 2024 - "Them Apples"
William stayed up late to catch some of the fiery State of The Union Address. When he came out, Audrie and I both commented, "oh man, he looks old - aging." Agreed. The Stakes so high now that Trump has officially claimed the damned GOP nod. Biden is our great national hope.... And so we tuned in to see what he's got. What our countries chances are this fall.
By the end of the 81 year old President's 75 minute speech, William was in bed asleep and I got the joyous privilege of sharing with Audrie that Uncle Joe had indeed, nailed it. Somewhere along the line here in the past 3 years, I was made to feel nervous. He's too old. Why is he running again? We can do better than this. I had forgotten all those SOTU speeches before where Biden had left us stirred and re-inspired. And so here tonight, days after turning in my primary ballot with Dean Phillips' name marked and not Biden's, in hopes of sending a message to pick up his game and get on offense, I was cheering for my guy. Before that "message vote" was even counted, Joe had delivered. I was so inspired after the second time through the ending that I was ready to dig out the old campaign sign and get it back out into the front yard. As it started, we nervously hoped he wouldn't screw up. Hours later, I was reliving it with my Dad over the phone - "maybe one of the best political speeches Id ever heard." "You know, I used to memorize these things! That was a good one!" And it wasn't just a talented speech writer. Joe put on a show in his home turf on The Hill. Sassing the obnoxious disrespectful Republican congress that had to sit through the progressive pep rally, and even calling out the Supreme Court to their faces, for overturning Roe V Wade. He delivered on every single major issue with fire and receipts. Chip factories, Gaza, Ukraine, Jobs, Rights - he had it all and he has it all working. He accounted for his age, not as a deficit but as a strength, having come to know the American story and its values so well. I told William, "thats our President - we are very proud of him. He is a very good man." Old like Big Papa, making our neighborhood great as it can be. Not perfect no - but as great as it can be. And unlike the alternative that would want you to believe our country is "a joke" - Joe tells a story of a country rising and strong and has the results to back it up. As for those imperfect parts? He quipped we can fight about it or we can fix it....I want to fix it" and I was convinced - how could you not be? He rallied the base, and convinced the independents tonight and save us from a nightmare.
I am glad that as he comes to understand and aware of America and Democracy and the Presidency and Washington, that its something that we can be proud of and have respect for. And with President Biden delivering such a widely accepted "Them Apples" speech tonight, I can be far far more optimistic that we're going to be just fine. It was as if with tonight's dramatic preaching, he had stepped up to save Democracy and save our country and put our ill-ease to rest. Joe's fine and ready to fight, and his record stands for itself, even at 81. He may very well go down as my favorite President - after tonight, he's officially claimed the spot. I love him. Now just don't die - the good guys really need one more break. And as he closed out his speech, to chants of four more years, I stood and clapped in my living room here in Tucson. I swore I could see him as if a hollogram, shades of his younger self. Like he got younger as the speech went on. The old man we'd seen go to the dias was alive now and with that beautiful smile he has, he asserted that the young man is still in his heart. And if he is ready to fight for this country, I'll go fight with him too. At least with him in office, we can count on the yearly address being inspiring and optimistic for the future.
Song: Phil Collins - Against All Odds
Quote: "The issue facing our nation isn’t how old we are, it’s how old our ideas are. Hate, anger, revenge, retribution are among the oldest of ideas. But you can’t lead America with ancient ideas that only take us back. To lead America, the land of possibilities, you need a vision for the future of what America can and should be. Tonight you’ve heard mine.” ~President Joe Biden, Mar 7, 2024
Full Transcript of this great speech here.
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Results from the presidential election are in. Well, actually, they've been in for quite a while now.
Macron wins, what a shocker. The fact that Le 🖋️ got to the second round was a godsend for him. As long as he didn't mess up big time, it would go just like November 2020, except with even less people voting for his opponent.
What I don't understand is how everyone can agree that Macron is a piss poor president who'd sell his own mother for a McChicken, yet he can still get enough votes to get to the second turn.
Oh, wait, I remember : People still try to strategize, and won't vote for a candidate who they don't think is gonna win from fear of "wasting their vote". It's like they think this is a game show, and they'll win big money if they vote for the candidate who ends up winning.
Are you telling me that, out of the dozen of candidates on the ballots, from left to right (but no liberal, except Macron the vaccine-mandate liberal and Mélenchon the statist liberal), a quarter of people saw the last five years of protests, government overteach, and overall fucking over everyone, and think "Hmm, I hate all those candidates, only Macron is the one I want"
I mean, yeah, he calls himself a centrist and his 2017 program sounded pretty level headed to me, probably enough to earn my vote, but there's this thing called empirical evidence, and I believe the last few years have made enough of that to show he's not a good candidate.
I'm rambling a little, but I really hate the fact that people "strategize" their first turn vote. It's not a fucking game show, you don't have to pick the one who's gonna win or the "lesser of two evils", there are other candidates and there's literally no consequence if you "get it wrong" by voting for a candidate who ends up taking only a small percentage of the votes.
For the first round you should really vote for who you think would do the best job, it's just mind blowing to me that they don't do that we get that here with the party primaries.
2020 the dems weren't looking for the person who would be best for the job (obviously) but who they thought had the best chance of winning against Trump, and ya it worked but look where it's gotten us.
Then we've got lesser of two evils voting, which is just terrible.
System is never going to change until enough people realize that they're going to need to suck it up and take the L for several years in order to grow support for a party that can make a difference and maybe not be evil.
Too many people are making this kind of thing out to be a life or death situation, which ya it could turn into but it's gonna take a long time to get there and maybe if you and enough other people stopped voting for evil you could keep it from happening at all.
With you guys I did enjoy seeing everyone like they do in Germany when the AfD gets anything going, just closing ranks and voting against whatever they're promoting regardless of if it's good or not. All the parties rallying behind Macron which should be worrying they shouldn't ALL back him especially since many of them probably hate him.
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Mister America, Prologue: Massachusetts
CHAPTER NUMBER: 1/? CHARACTERS: President!Chris Evans/OFC (see notes) GENRE: Romance/Drama FIC SUMMARY: After a massive social media write-in campaign organized by others, Chris finds himself thrust into a spotlight that he is unprepared to handle. His campaign managers suggest that a political marriage might help him weather the storm and help his image during the campaign... just so long as it isn’t the one woman Chris really wants. RATING: M WARNINGS: Nothing. AUTHORS NOTES: This story is AU in the fact that this is the 2020 presidential race, and Chris is a candidate. But everything in the past is still the same with him being an actor. Also, COVID-19 is not a part of this story. I needed to play in a land where COVID didn’t exist and “Captain America,” in his alter ego, punched out a Nazi in a metaphorical(?) way. For more on the story, go here.
This first part is prologue-y.
I have also curated a soundtrack for all 50 states, and then some. You can listen on Spotify right now, may eventually put it on Youtube. There will be 50 chapters (I’m hoping), but many of them will be shorter.
Also on AO3!
Boston, MA Evans for President Campaign Headquarters November 3rd, 2020 30 Minutes Before First Polls Close
Stage fright is no joke.
When it hits, it hits like a semi truck going seventy on an icy Massachusetts road. In the blink of an eye, you’re completely obliterated. Except this is on stage and you’re not dead, even though you wish you were. In fact, you’re very much alive. Alive enough to feel the force of the impact, followed by the squeezing in your chest and choking on your breathless words. Paralysis takes over. Cold clammy sweat slicks your palms and also trickles down your back to that one spot between your shoulder blades you can’t reach, but causes your costume to uncomfortably stick to your skin.
There’s no escape. You know what’s coming. You worry you’ll forget your lines, or trip on your cue, or make a complete and utter fool of yourself. You feel like an imposter, questioning why you’re here, in this role, when that dude, JD, from your acting class years ago was a million times more talented than you, and you’re the one that got that teen movie deal. You’re the one who became one of America's most beloved superheroes for a decade.
You’re also the one who has a very real chance of winning the 2020 presidential election, despite no college education, limited understanding of what elected officials in DC actually do on a day to day basis, and the closest thing you have to experience as a “boss” or “commander in chief” of anything was a movie set or two where you were director and executive producer.
Nope.
What I, Chris Evans, have is a dedicated online fan base who took the time to write my name into ballots when they discovered I had filed for ballot access in every state of the union. I didn’t do the filing on a whim; we sat around late one night talking about the interviews I had been conducting in DC for a website about party positions on important issues. My business partners and I came up with the idea that a long form documentary about campaigning would be interesting, and we determined the best way to understand the process was to become a “candidate” myself. Meaning, we only planned to use the credentials to be on the front line of the campaigning process. I was never going to create signs and make speeches or debate with others.
I never intended to run a legitimate campaign.
But, as I mentioned, something strange happened during the Democratic primaries. People started to vote for me, a trickle of rain in a hurricane.
I won a few primary delegates.
Without even trying.
Not enough to win the Democratic ticket, but enough to make pollsters sit up and take notice.
My loyal fans stepped in again, undaunted, and ignited a storm. They dubbed it “Operation America’s Ass” and created a grassroots campaign across the country with GoFundMe donations and a lot of pluck. I thought it was a joke. A part of me still does think it’s a joke. I mean, what other explanation is there for this mess? For the red, white and blue bunting hanging on the walls with the “Chris Evans for President” sign plastered underneath it? For the staffers who stop briefly to see if I need anything...‘Would you like a drink, sir?’... or, upon seeing how pale I look, give me a vote of confidence… ‘Are you ready for your acceptance speech?’ There’s absolutely no good explanation as to why there are twenty or thirty people buzzing around the hotel suite waiting for results. They’re so energized with hope for a better future.
Hope that I can be everything they ever wanted in a president.
An Independent president, free from party oversight.
A president with class.
A president for the people.
A president who can bring the United States back from the brink of destruction at the hands of previous leaders.
I wish I had their confidence.
When they asked me on career day in school what I wanted to be when I grew up, I always said artist. When I was older, in high school, I knew I was going to be an actor. Never president. The job never entered my mind as being a possibility, not even when I used to work for my uncle’s congressional campaigns. Or when I started filming those interviews.
Why does anyone think I, a straight white momma’s boy from Boston should be president in 2020? Just because I made a few popular Tweets about the current president’s lack of leadership?
It has to be a joke. A cosmic one. I’m a punchline. I am convinced they’ll jump out from behind a doorway and yell “You’ve been PUNK’D! We really got you this time, now here, Bernie, you’re the better candidate.”
And yet…
What if they see in me something I do not?
I place a lot of stock in being in the moment. I’ve also put a lot of work into accepting the twists and turns of life instead of allowing all the “what ifs” and “what should I dos” to eat away at me. I told everybody after I was done with Marvel and financially secure enough to only work on projects I really wanted to, I’d take life as it came at me.
Well, it came after me.
To be fair, I originally chose to get into politics, even in a tiny way, because I wanted to be informed about my choices. I created a website so others could learn, as well. As time went on, I became more involved on Capitol Hill. I even did some lobbying for a few causes dear to my heart. And, yes, I did file the ballot access paperwork.
Had I unintentionally set my path in this direction? Was it inevitable for me to become a contender for the presidency?
Fortunately, I learned early on in the process that a lot of being a presidential candidate is being a convincing showman. An actor. The world's a stage, after all, and I am but a player. You have to have some solid ideas and convictions to back up the image, but a lot of the governing comes from other members of the executive branch. Should I win, I’d only be signing off on everything.
Of course, that “everything” affects the lives of more than 300 million souls. I wouldn’t trust me with a kitchen knife, much less nuclear launch codes and people's livelihoods and education and health and…
My hands shake with nerves just thinking about it.
Let it be said, once I do make it out onto the stage--be it as an actor or presidential candidate--I rise to the challenge. The energy from the audience buoys me. Makes me feel alive. But I am not, by nature, someone who likes to sign away so much personal freedom in exchange for the weight of carrying an albatross around my neck. I thought signing for Captain America would be tough; the human toll of running for president even moreso.
Actually being President? I can’t even wrap my mind around that.
It would be easy to call it quits, even now when the votes are already cast. I could have done it a long time ago, when the reality of the situation hit me the first time. I didn’t. Something told me to hold back, play it out. I persevered. Why? Somewhere, along the line, I began to believe I could do this. I could make a positive difference in the lives of Americans.
I certainly want to do right by all my supporters--and my detractors. I want to be a leader for all Americans.
But can I, really, while knowing my incredible deficiencies?
Maybe I can’t, but I can be the team leader. A brand ambassador, if you will. A good leader delegates. And I intend, should I win, to surround myself with the best and brightest. I will accept no less. I will do ‘Whatever It Takes,’ as our slogan boasts. I am American, first and foremost, and I care deeply about this country.
A real Captain America, if you will. Maybe not as strong or powerful as others, but I sure as hell can give a great speech and will defend my country from bullies until my last breath, whether they be purple… or orange.
Except, I suppose if I’m elected, I won’t be Captain America anymore. They’ll call me Mr. President.
Or, horror of horrors, what if the new name my nearest and dearest coined makes it out into the public. They tease me with it just to see my visceral revulsion and get a laugh. But if I have learned anything about the internet--and pop culture--is that if something is catchy, it sticks around for a long time.
Maybe I ought to get used to the idea of being a punchline.
So, I suppose I have a question for you.
Won’t you consider a vote for Mr. America?
#chris evans#captain america#chris evans fanfiction#chris evans fan fiction#chris evans fanfic#chris evans fan fic#mister america#president!chris evans#president
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Late in the afternoon on the last Monday in June, 430 Democrats, who had paid up to $100,000 each, clicked into a private, Texas-themed Zoom call organized by Joe Biden’s campaign. They were greeted by former Planned Parenthood chief Cecile Richards, whose mother, Ann, was the state’s last Democratic governor. They heard from Julián Castro and Beto O’Rourke, and they were treated to a performance by Willie Nelson, who sang a song with his son Lukas called “Vote ’Em Out.” It began, “If you don’t like who’s in there, vote ’em out. / That’s what Election Day is all about. / The biggest gun we’ve got is called the ballot box.” And they heard from Biden, who — just four days after a Fox News poll showed him narrowly ahead of Donald Trump in the state no Democratic nominee has carried since Jimmy Carter — told them, “I think we can turn Texas blue.”
From Amarillo to Brownsville to Beaumont to El Paso, you could practically hear the sighs: Here we go again. Texas Democrats hear a version of this overture in every election cycle as outsiders swoop in citing statistics about demographic shifts. The national party has long regarded the Lone Star State’s 38 electoral votes as the just-out-of-reach golden key to perpetual success.
Still, the ex-VP is now basking in a double-digit lead nationwide, and we’re improbably entering month 17 of close polling between Biden and the president in Texas, which Trump won by nine points in 2016. The state’s Republican senators are warning that Texas will be “hotly contested” (Ted Cruz) and “at risk of turning purple” (John Cornyn). And after months of bluster from its GOP leaders — in March, Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick said seniors like him would be willing to die to restart the economy — Texas is under assault from COVID-19, and frustrations are turning into fury. Governor Greg Abbott has backtracked on plans for reopening as more than 5,000 new coronavirus cases flood in each day, while Houston hospitals are at capacity and millions remain out of work.
Four months into lockdown — about halfway between being left for dead politically early in the primary and Election Day in November — the nominee and his campaign are still adjusting to political fortunes they can hardly believe all around the country, let alone in Texas. As the summer stretches on, party leaders are starting to work out whether Biden’s lead and Trump’s spiral mean Democrats can afford to experiment in conservative states or if it’s worth shining a brighter light on down-ballot races that could hand a President Biden the Senate.
Of course, no national Democratic group has spent a dime on TV advertising in Texas, and they’re unlikely to. Biden doesn’t need Texas to win the White House. Far from it: Carter is the only Democrat to win there since native son Lyndon B. Johnson. Pro-Biden groups, like the Unite the Country super-PAC, that aim to get him to 270 electoral votes have been spending money in top-tier battleground states like Florida and North Carolina, not Texas, where Trump still has a slim lead in some polls. “If we win Texas, it will be the 350th or 370th electoral vote,” says Lily Adams, a senior Unite the Country official (who happens to be Ann Richards’s granddaughter and Cecile Richards’s daughter). “Not the 270th.”
And Democrats are still haunted by their 2016 confidence, especially in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Hillary Clinton’s wasn’t even the party’s only semi-recent collapse; one July 1988 poll showed Michael Dukakis beating George H.W. Bush by 17 points. Trump’s team, meanwhile, insists it hasn’t started fully unloading on its opponent yet. But this year’s race is showing signs of becoming something entirely different: Despite being stuck at home in Delaware because of the virus while Trump soaked up the national attention, Biden held a roughly ten-point lead in national polling averages by the end of June — about four points wider than the margin at this stage of any race in recent history. It would be overly kind to describe Trump as “flailing” as his poll numbers continue to hit new lows amid the pandemic and the protests against police brutality. His answer is to desperately look for a more cutting nickname for Biden, as he’s worried that “Sleepy Joe” isn’t good enough. (The 74-year-old Trump’s allies think their best bet is to portray 77-year-old Biden as frail and deteriorating. When asked by a Fox News producer about “cognitive decline” late last month, Biden replied, “I’m constantly tested … I can hardly wait to compare my cognitive capability to the cognitive capability of the man I’m running against.”)
Biden’s leads in the crucial swing states are more solid than expected — Trump’s campaign team is already worried he may have too big a mountain to climb in Michigan, the site of perhaps his most shocking 2016 victory — but the leads are still smaller than Biden’s apparent national margin. Biden has only recently begun venturing out for campaign events and rarely travels farther than next-door Pennsylvania. Wary of distancing recommendations, he isn’t planning to hold rallies in the fall, and only now, with four months left, is he building up senior teams in Wisconsin, North Carolina, and the like, while his allies pound digital and TV airwaves in those battlegrounds with a barrage of anti-Trump ads.
A Biden sweep still isn’t certain, which is why he probably won’t go all-in on a state like Texas. “My grandmother used to say, ‘You don’t know the size of Texas until you’ve campaigned in it,’ ” warns Adams. O’Rourke’s race against Cruz was the priciest Senate contest ever — and he still lost. But, Adams continues, “what you may be witnessing is a confluence or perfect storm of events that is making Texas more competitive this cycle than any other in recent history.”
Three Democrats independently used the “perfect storm” metaphor in conversations with me to refer to the pandemic, Trump’s plummeting popularity, and demographic shifts that have increased the state’s number of Latino voters and city dwellers. (A fourth called it a “perfect shitstorm.”) While that combination doesn’t yet have party leaders considering Texas a central swing state, it has forced them to shift it solidly into their expanded conversation about electoral battlegrounds, just behind Georgia.
Those closest to Biden have better things to worry about than these debates — like picking his running mate and designing his coronavirus-recovery proposals. When they do get sucked in, though, the pro-Texas-investment arguments usually start by noting that this ain’t the Bushes’ Texas anymore. O’Rourke, whose presidential campaign manager, Jen O’Malley Dillon, now runs Biden’s effort, came within three points of Cruz in 2018. That was just four years after Abbott beat Democrat Wendy Davis by 20 points, and the state’s briskly growing cities and suburbs are sprinting away from Trump’s GOP. Long-term trends have seduced Democrats: The Census Bureau in June reported that Texas’s Hispanic population grew by more than 2 million in the past decade. And the state’s present crisis has only sped things up. It’s the latest stage in a four-month saga during which Trump’s polling has dropped precipitously, but it mirrors similarly dire pictures for Trump in Florida and Arizona. “It’s 24/7, all over the place on TV, on their cell phones, as counties send out emergency texts to every single person in the county,” Castro, the former presidential candidate, tells me. “People are putting two and two together that this is the direct result of a failure by Donald Trump and Greg Abbott.” Whereas Biden has lagged previous Democrats a bit in popularity among Latino voters, Latino communities have been hit especially brutally, causing many to turn hard against Republicans.
The party’s wallet will stay shut for now anywhere but Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, Arizona, and Florida. Still, before Willie Nelson and his guitar took center stage that Monday afternoon on Zoom, O’Rourke warned that if the vote tally is tight on Election Day, “I believe that the current occupant of the White House — who does not believe in the rule of law, who does not respect the Constitution, who will do anything he can to maintain and increase his purchase on power, will exploit a close outcome to attempt to steal the election.” But, he continued, “the greatest safeguard against that outcome is Texas.”
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Power Rangers Zeo (Heather Ray).
The other night I sat with my family members around the table reminiscing and also telling old stories. We worked with our golf swing with equipment that measured our power in watts, and also took advantage of the complete line of Kinesis makers (their unique resistance cables allow for better series of activity). Power is depicted here as a shaping pressure, capable of generating its very own authenticity - whether it be possessed by mine proprietors, absentee companies, local elites, or even union bosses. The functional power cleaner provides a performance of a commercial equipment that utilizes 3.0 kilowatts induction motor with its 3 axial-piston brass pumps that helps generates an astonishing 2300 PSI stress power blasting 10 liters per minute water circulation. Microsoft billionaire Expense Gates has actually stated there is a 10% chance kite power can be the magic remedy" for international renewable energy demands. Additionally it has some filler which is unusual since this flick is hardly 80 mins which most likely offers you a respectable concept of how little possible the story has in this flick to be any kind of good. The fundamental structure was integrated in a workshop outside the city and then lifted right into the Colosseum by a giant crane. In http://verde-dieta.info/prolesan-pure-recenzii-pret-cum-functioneaza-recenzii-unde-sa-cumparati/ acquired rival chain LA Health and fitness as well as struck up a collaboration with Olympian Sir Chris Hoy, that is a special adviser as well as brand ambassador" to Pure Health club. Stories of the trip over and how thrilled he was to discover everything on the big ship (a seafarer, making the most of his inquisitiveness, convinced him to lift some papers pushing deck, to see what was below ...). Stories of working as a journeyman footwear technician in cities and communities across upstate New york city as well as Ohio (in one store, the foreman placed my grandfather and his turret in the front window so passers-by would quit to view exactly how quick as well as well he did his job). On the one hand, it consists of passages that John S. Wright could have written, as when it emphatically mentions, Chicago is currently facing the momentous truth that fifty years for this reason, when the children of to-day are at the elevation of their power as well as influence, this city will be bigger than London: that is, bigger than any existing city." On the various other hand, it declines the concept that the city's success can or should be assessed in terms of numbers alone, or that the future would certainly care for itself. Starting with our original list of about 51 health clubs (assembled from our round-up of the very best gyms of 2013, publicly available statistics, as well as other expert lists), we asked you to elect your favorites - likewise enabling write-in ballots to make up any type of health clubs that weren't pointed out on the initial listing. As soon as and also they don't have to all be on the same team either, you do not have to strike a fitness center alone; multiple individuals can attack a fitness center at. EPA established that the combination of utilizing of smokestack controls as well as contamination credit histories from shifting generation amongst plants makes up a well-demonstrated system of discharge reduction, one that is commonly utilized by the power industry both to meet inner targets and also prior government and also state guidelines. Freely based upon real occasions, Funny of Power had its North American launching at the 2006 Tribeca Film Festival. The platform lift can be found in a huge range of different models, each one with various attributes that make it far better fit for a details sort of job. Les plates-formes Power Plate ® constituent une parfaite alternate put les personnes actives qui n'ont pas beaucoup de temps à consacrer à un entraînement trois fois the same level semaine, voire plus. Control is a crucial element of the lift system and because of this they commonly provide power assisted drive. Some health clubs only enable teens to workout in the assigned youth facility area, while other gyms permit teens the exact same freedom to make use of the equipment as the adults. The originator of this franchise business identified that there was a huge market for a gym such as Curves and undoubtedly has taken advantage of a found diamond. You might be missing out if you are guilty of wrapping up your health club session as well as avoiding out on a cool down or stretch. Keltner's research suggests that women are not immune from this mystery, which claims that the very qualities that help us look for power-like beauty, compassion, or humbleness -are the ones that having power could harm. The power in an organization lies with supervisors and managers who have actually been enabled within the business framework, to make sure that the company could operate effectively. However nonverbally presenting power during the interaction - now that's an additional thing with different prescriptions and also end results. By the end of March, president Peter Roberts believes Pure Gym will have surpassed the 103 total of UK gyms run by Virgin Energetic, the present primary driver. This stair lift has a lifting ability of 300 lb or 136 kg. A flip-up swivel seat that secures placement and also constant stress buttons are various other functions of this straight stair lift. While a lot of exclusive health clubs serve teenagers and grownups, a couple of select health clubs just enable teens. Picked this for ideas to supplement my barbell-based routine, for when I can not get to the health club, and to help my wife with suggestions to do in your home & health club. His afternoon training sessions at the gym have actually permitted more youthful fighters to work along with a master, as well as interested onlookers to see. Teaching your staff members all facets of power device training as well as security could minimize the opportunities of injury and also maintain your workforce effective as well as risk-free. The fitness center consists of weights, cardiovascular tools, security balls, machines and also resistance bands. Mirrors on all walls do not simply mimic the look of many health clubs - they actually make the room look bigger. A new wave of thinking of power exposes that it is offered to us by others as opposed to got. There are few better exercises for targeting full-body power compared to the medicine-ball bang. Most of the gyms need their participants to abide by the laws to be able to go into and utilize the facilities. No, in spite of prominent notions and the common urban legends, Pfeffer competes that the path to power is substantially various than the prominent concepts we were raised to believe. If you see that you are obtaining squeezed in order to spend for your fitness center Sydney subscription then you are bound to pull out after a few days. It is just a partial settlement to know that the paradox also implies that political hopefuls such as Donald Trump - angry, manipulative harasses - are less likely to acquire power to start with. If you are presently not making use of any kind of sort of eco-friendly power and intend to conserve electricity, you could still decrease your costs by disconnecting unutilized home appliances. Greetings Diona", he claimed pleasantly, as he came level with her, making her once more so aware of his figure as he looked down upon her. After years of lack of exercise, Ashley returned as the Yellow Space Ranger to help the Galaxy Rangers battle the Psycho Rangers. Individuals who pledged to stroll were 3 times more likely to show up vs. those just saying they would stroll. From scenting too excellent to filling out a large dimension water bottle when there is a line of people behind you, read on to see if you're guilty of any one of these 16 health club pet dog peeves. The Gym stated the variety of inexpensive health clubs across the country had enhanced to 319 this year from 58 in 2011. That said, the plot brings me to my 2nd problem - one which maintains Absolute Power from being a 5-star book. The health club also contains 450 items of cardio workout tools as well as dumbbells and makers. Yes, you heard me. We're paying triple numbers a month and also struggling atop lunar looking equipment in order to replicate easy youth searches like jumping rope, hula hooping and also playing tag. After the Power Rangers involve her rescue, she goes back to being the principal of Reefside High and is disclosed to have actually been a close personal good friend of Anton Mercer. Raise takes us on an enlightening scenic tour through time, starting with the ancient Greeks, who made a cult of the body-- words gym derives from the Greek word for naked"-- as well as following Roman legions, middle ages knights, Persian pahlevans, as well as eighteenth-century German gymnasts.
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Top 10 Most Wanted Newcomers and Echo Fighters
NiI’d like to start this post by saying this is all my own personal opinion. I respect all feedback, be it positive or negative, so feel free to message me anytime! Fair warning, there’s a lot of characters I’m not familiar with, so please go easy on me! I’ll present my #10 echo fighter and then my #10 newcomer until we reach number one, each with a paragraph describing why I want them. Let’s start with...
ECHO #10 - KEN (Street Fighter) (Echo of RYU)
I haven’t played a lot of Street Fighter, but I do know that Ken is a fan favorite of the series. I can’t see any third party characters getting a unique rep (RIP Chun-Li) so the best thing would be a Ryu echo fighter. The only person who I feel deserves that role is Ken. As stated before, I’m a novice to Street Fighter so I can’t name any differences between the two, but Smash Bros. would be a fantastic way for me to see these differences.
NEWCOMER #10 - RAYMAN (Rayman)
Remember when Artsy Omni made that fake leak of Rayman in SM4SH? I was one of the many people who thought it looked too real to be fake. Nearly everything about the leak looked real, and the fact that there was a Rayman trophy in the game only lead me to believe it further. With his detached limbs, I could see Rayman having one of the longer grabs in the game, with his hands and legs flying far from his body to deal some damage.
ECHO #9 - FUNKY KONG (Donkey Kong Country) (Echo of DONKEY KONG)
I’ve been playing a lot of Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze, and with the Switch port adding a fifth playable character in the form of Funky Kong (only in Funky Mode), he’s gaining a new following that he hasn’t had before. Rather than rolling in his dash attack like Donkey Kong, Funky could ride his Surfboard. If not a dash attack, it could work similar to Wario’s bike where it will disappear for a bit if it’s destroyed. His recovery could involve him surfing upwards, too!
NEWCOMER #9 - REX AND PYRA (Xenoblade Chronicles)
I haven’t gotten around to beating Xenoblade Chronciles 2 yet, but I really like the dynamic between these two. I don’t have much to say about them, they’d probably function semi-similar to Shulk but not close enough to be an echo fighter. Rather than giving Rex alternate costumes, each costume could be a different sword rather than Pyra.
ECHO #8 - IMPA (The Legend of Zelda) (Echo of SHEIK)
Using her Hyrule Warriors appearance, obviously. She’d play as a fast moving just low damaging attacker like Sheik, but I could see her dash attack and other moves using her sword like she does in Hyrule Warriors.
NEWCOMER #8 - SPRINGMAN (ARMS)
So I’ve heard that Sakurai is primarily drawing from the Smash Ballot back in SM4SH, which means we may not being seeing any ARMS characters in the base roster. The game may have been underwhelming, but Nintendo rarely releases new major IPs, so bringing in a character from ARMS may help with sales. As Springman is the primary posterboy, he would fit best into the roster. Similar to Rayman, he’d have long range due to his spring-like arms.
ECHO #7 - NINTEN (Earthbound) (Echo of NESS)
I know absolutely nothing about this character because the only Earthbound/Mother game I’ve played was Mother 3, but I’d love to see another representative of the series. Seeing as Ness and Lucas were the protagonists of Earthbound 2 and Mother 3, I see no reason to not include the protagonist of the first game in the series.
NEWCOMER #7 - DECIDUEYE (Pokémon)
I’m going to be quaint. I don’t want Incineroar to be our Gen. 7 rep. It may be easier to implement than an owl with a bow and arrow, but we already have Greninja to represent a water starter and we have/had Charizard to represent a fire starter, so I would much rather have our first grass starter in the form of the unique Decidueye. He’d have a fantastic recovery due to his being an owl, but his kit would be primarily ranged based. You could take a lot of his movement from his Pokkén Tournament incarnation.
ECHO #6 - ISABELLE (Animal Crossing) (Echo of VILLAGER)
Isabelle’s assist trophy has not (at the time of making this) been reconfirmed, so I believe there’s a strong possibility that she’ll make it as our second Animal Crossing representative. She’s quickly become one of the most popular characters of the series and with her very expressive faces, I’m sure Sakurai can make her into one of the cutest characters we have.
NEWCOMER #6 - FAWFUL (Super Mario)
Nintendo seems to have forgotten about the Mario & Luigi franchise, which saddens me because they were my favorite games. Fawful is an important character in Superstar Saga, Partners in Time, and Bowser’s Inside Story, even being the main antagonist in the third. He could be a very unique fighter, using his head-jetpack-thing for his recovery and his final smash could be the Dark Star Core.
ECHO #5 - VIRIDI or MEDUSA (Kid Icarus) (Echo of PALUTENA)
Viridi is a fan favorite who could echo Palutena, but rather than using general light magic, Viridi could focus on more nature-based magic. Another echo of Palutena could be Medusa. I’m not quite sure what a moveset for her would be like, but more villains is a must.
NEWCOMER #5 - SKULL KID (The Legend of Zelda)
Apparently there’s a lot of people who believe Skull Kid is confirmed already? I don’t know if I’d go that far, though I admit the proof is very believable. I don’t know what a potential moveset for Skull Kid could be, and his final smash probably wouldn’t be the Moon, as it’s an assist trophy now. But who knows, maybe it’s possible?
ECHO #4 - SHADOW (Sonic the Hedgehog) (Echo of SONIC)
Shadow just makes sense to me. We know third party characters are open to echo fighters, and Chrom showed us that “echo” doesn’t mean “exact copy”. Shadow could echo Sonic but keep his unique dark and edgy attitude. He could be a stronger but slower Sonic who skates on his shoes and uses the power of the Chaos Emeralds for his attacks, with Chaos Control and other emerald-based powers. No guns though.
NEWCOMER #4 - PAPER MARIO (Super Mario)
With five games to take from, the Paper Mario RPG series is a classic and loveable series to Nintendo fans. While the recent games have failed to live up to what The Thousand-Year Door built, the series still has a strong following. He could use jump based moves and his hammer would be an integral part of his moveset. Various partners from the series, like Goombella, could also be part of his moveset.
ECHO #3 - OCTOLING (Splatoon) (Echo of INKLING)
Now that we know that not all Octoling are evil, this may be their chance to make it into the lime light as a playable character in Super Smash Bros. The major problem I see with the Octoling is how to differentiate between their ink and the Inkling’s ink. Plus I just really want an Octoling amiibo.
NEWCOMER #3 - MONSTER HUNTER (Monster Hunter)
I have never played any Monster Hunter games and to be honest they just aren’t my cup of tea, but since Rathalos is in the game as both a boss and an assist trophy, I’d be kind of upset if we didn’t get a hunter as a character.
ECHO #2 - DIXIE KONG (Donkey Kong Country) (Echo of DIDDY KONG)
Another fan favorite character that I’m honestly surprised hasn’t made it yet. Her hair could whip forward like Shantae’s does in the Shantae games, and it could also be used as her recovery, working the same as Donkey Kong’s, low height but long distance.
NEWCOMER #2 - GENO (Super Mario)
I haven’t played Super Mario RPG personally, but I’ve seen my friend play a bit of it and I know how popular Geno is. With his appearance as a Mii Costume in SM4SH, I don’t think it’s unreasonable that Sakurai put him in. It seems like all those who got Mii Costumes have made it in as playable characters (except Ashley, RIP).
HONORABLE MENTIONS Amaterasu, Banjo-Kazooie, Chibi-Robo, Chorus Kids, Dillon, Elma, Isaac, Leon Kennedy, Lloyd Irving, Marx, Quote, Tetra, and Wonder-Red
ECHO #1 - DARK BOWSER or MIDBUS (Super Mario) (Echo of BOWSER)
Psst, hey. Fun fact. This is actually my most wanted character in the entire list. Even more than my #1 Newcomer. Dark Bowser is the final boss of Bowser’s storyline in Bowser’s Inside Story, happening the same time as the Mario Bros. fight the Dark Star Core. He’s bigger than Bowser and a lot tougher. He breaths blue/purple fire among other powers, and I plan on making a whole separate post dedicated to why I want this character in Smash Bros. For now, I’ll just leave you all with Dark Bowser’s battle music.
NEWCOMER #1 - BANDANA DEE (Kirby)
Bandana (Waddle) Dee has become a stable character of the Kirby franchise, usually being a boss character or a playable character, his popularity rivals that of King Dedede and Meta Knight. He could throw his spear as a neutral attack, and spin it around for his recovery like he does in Star Allies. If you want to see what this looks like in action, I suggest checking out some gameplay of him in Super Smash Flash 2 (Please ignore Goku, he’s never getting in).
#nintendo#smash bros#ssb5#smash bros ultimate#super smash bros ultimate#ken#street fighter#rayman#funky kong#donkey kong country#rex#pyra#rex and pyra#xenoblade chronciles#impa#the legend of zelda#springman#arms#ninten#earthbound#decidueye#pokemon#isabelle#animal crossing#fawful#super mario#viridi#medusa#kid icarus#skull kid
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Oct 7, 2018
My Dear Friend and President, DJT,
How was Kansas? Were you trying to be funny when you called Kobach's opponent, Laura Kelly, a "sworn enemy of the 2nd amendment" and "far Left"? Did you see the signs at the protest that said, "Rock Chalk Stop Kobach?" I had to look that up and found out that it refers to a KU cheer. I guess there's some JayHawks out there who are not voting Republican in November. Apparently, Kris Kobach's candidacy for governor is somewhat tainted by the fact that as Sec. of State he was the official in charge of counting ballots and the primary was extremely close. His office was advising counties what to do with their provisional ballots a few days after the election. You got to admit, that's pretty fishy. Did you promise his opponent, Gov. Coyler, a job in DC to get him to pull out of the race?
The K C Star reported that you were ecstatic about the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh, and that you thought that many women are, too. I'm afraid you are mistaken. Most of us are resigned. No one is perfect. No one is "squeaky clean" as you claimed. We have all made mistakes and done things we regret. So, we have a flawed Supreme Court judge, and if Brett was not confirmed your next nominee would be flawed in some other way. I just wish you both had shown more grace through this whole thing, admit your transgressions and apologize for letting your hormones get the best of you. I believe Brett does not remember what he did because he did stuff like that all the time and didn't think much of it. It didn't traumatize him so it was not seared in his memory as it was for Dr. Ford. Will you please stop talking about it now?
It looks like Melania had a wonderful trip to Africa. I wish I could have gone with her. Kenya and Ghana are on my bucket list and bottle feeding a baby elephant would be a dream come true. According to the NYT she made some questionable choices in wearing colonial era hats. Perhaps she needs a consultant.
Have a great day,
RCA
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via Politics – FiveThirtyEight
Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited.
micah (Micah Cohen, politics editor): We’re here to talk about superdelegates!!!!!!
Everyone’s favorite subject, right?
clare.malone (Clare Malone, senior political writer): Extremely 2016 up in here.
micah: (This is my least favorite topic.)
clare.malone: I can’t imagine why. It’s so sexy, and the debate is totally based in facts about what happened during 2016.
micah:
OK, so Democrats over the weekend curtailed the power of superdelegates a bit by changing the party’s nominating rules.
Here, from friend-of-the-site Josh Putnam at Frontloading HQ, is a description of the new system:
1. If a candidate wins 50 percent of the pledged delegates plus one during or by the end of primary season, then the superdelegates are barred from the first ballot. 2. If a candidate wins 50 percent of all of the delegates (including superdelegates) plus one, then the superdelegate opt-in is triggered and that faction of delegates can participate in the first (and only) round of voting. 3. If no candidate wins a majority of either pledged or all delegates during or by the end of primary season, then superdelegates are barred from the first round and allowed in to vote in the second round to break the stalemate.
Can someone give us a topline “what this means”?
natesilver (Nate Silver, editor in chief): It means that superdelegates can’t override the voters if someone gets 50 percent + 1 of pledged delegates.
It also means they could be hugely influential in the case of a multiballot convention, which is probably the more important case.
And it probably makes a multiballot convention more likely by not allowing superdelegates to be used as tiebreakers.
clare.malone: I think what they’re trying to do is mitigate the notion during the primary contest that “elites” have outsized weight.
We should note here that Hillary Clinton won more pledged delegates in 2016 than Bernie Sanders.
micah: Yeah, how much of this is PR vs. actually limiting the influence of superdelegates?
natesilver: Like so many other institutions, they’re catering to their critics and fighting the last war.
Like, I’m not even sure how I feel about superdelegates. I just think this is done for maybe the wrong reasons? And that the more interesting lessons were actually in the GOP primary in 2016?
clare.malone: I don’t know — it seems like a fair reaction in many ways.
I don’t think it’s bad to mitigate concerns that people in your base might have about stifling voter representation.
natesilver: Let’s say the pledged delegate allocation after everyone has voted is: Elizabeth Warren 40 percent, Joe Biden 30 percent, Cory Booker 20 percent, and 10 percent scattered among various other candidates who have since dropped out. Under the previous system, superdelegates would weigh in for Warren — who clearly is the most popular choice — and give her a majority on the first ballot.
Under the new system, the superdelegates don’t get to vote on the first ballot. Instead, they wait until the second ballot, when most of the pledged delegates become unpledged.
And there could be a lot more chaos here: Maybe Booker agrees to run as Biden’s VP, for instance.
clare.malone: Devil’s advocate: Why is it chaos? And even if it is chaos, why is it bad?
Are you arguing that it actually leads to back-room deals negating its supposed goal of democratizing the process?
natesilver: I’m saying that requiring an outright majority on the first ballot — no superdelegates to push a candidate who’s close to a majority over the top — coupled with Democrats’ extremely proportional delegate allocations — is a recipe for chaos
The chances of the nomination not being resolved on the first ballot are about 50 percent, maybe a little higher.
perry (Perry Bacon Jr., senior writer): I agree with that. I actually think under the previous system, Warren (or Sanders) was guaranteed to win in a scenario where she (or he) had the most delegates. That is less true now. The previous system gave superdelegates lots of power in theory. But in practice, supers were already bending to the will of the voters. Some superdelegates who originally backed Hillary Clinton flipped to Barack Obama in the latter stages of the 2008 Democratic primary, for example, once it became clear that he would win the most pledged delegates. That ensured that he got the majority of all delegates at the end.
clare.malone: I’ve decided to argue from the angle of the rules-changers. Aren’t you guys infantilizing the voters a bit? Yes, the process might be messier than in previous years, but on a second-round ballot where people are unpledged, you basically get to see a bit of a caucus happen among delegates. Maybe that sort of parliamentary way of doing things is healthy for the party.
Maybe what voters want is to see the process thrashed out, to see a second ballot!
micah: Woo!
natesilver: Maybe! But it goes against the stated aims of the reforms.
perry: And the changes don’t seem like a great advantage for the Sanders people, who pushed for them.
clare.malone: Well, the party is very different than it was in 2016.
So maybe the “center” or the “establishment” candidate will be closer to where Sanders is and it won’t matter … and the voters will be there too.
natesilver: I agree that it’s hard to predict who these changes will benefit. And, of course, there’s a long history of changes that were made with the best of intentions backfiring.
Democrats saw the train wreck that was the Republican nomination process in 2016 and decided to do nothing to prevent something similar happening to them, even though it looks like they could easily also have a 17-candidate field or thereabouts in 2020.
micah: So, using Nate’s hypothetical above — “Warren 40 percent, Biden 30 percent, Booker 20 percent, and 10 percent scattered among various other candidates” — doesn’t this come down to whether you think Warren winning a plurality means she should get the nomination or whether you think Warren not winning a majority means she shouldn’t get the nomination?
natesilver: I think Warren’s probably getting the nomination either way IN THOSE SCENARIOS , but she’s definitely at more risk under the new system.
clare.malone: Maybe it’s a healthier process for a party that has actual divisions.
natesilver: Now, maybe there are some cases where the opposite is true. If you have a case where it’s Kamala Harris 51 percent, Joe Biden 48 percent, Martin O’Malley 1 percent of the pledged delegates — Harris is now guaranteed the nomination, whereas supers could have pushed it to Biden before.
But if it’s Harris 49 percent, Biden 46 percent, O’Malley 5 percent, she’s not.
clare.malone: It’s basically just more of a wild-card system.
(As a side note, as a journalist, I look forward to the potential drama.)
natesilver: What saved the Republicans from a contested convention of their own in 2016 was the fact that a lot of their primaries, especially toward the end stages, were winner-take-all or winner-take-most. That allowed Donald Trump to build up some real momentum in the last one-third or so of the primary calendar.
Without that, the GOP would probably have still gotten Trump anyway — he was clearly the choice of the plurality of voters — but only after an extremely chaotic convention.
perry: I don’t think the big goal (stopping supers from overturning the plurality of the pledged delegates) is necessarily best served by these particular reforms. That said, on the broader question of whether superdelegates SHOULD be able overturn the plurality of pledged delegates, I think there is a case for superdelegates to have that power. I’m not completely sure superdelegates should be disempowered, even though I agree with arguments that the will of the people should be respected and am generally for giving voters more power. The last two years (so Trump) have suggested that maybe party elders should play a bigger role, not necessarily in pushing for a different person ideologically, but maybe a president who abides by general norms. (For example, I think Ted Cruz would be as conservative as Trump, but perhaps less erratic and able to condemn white nationalist rallies.) I’m not sure if, say, Michael Avenatti has a chance of winning the Democratic nomination in 2020, but I bet a lot of Democratic Party elders are not excited at that prospect–and would like to have the power to stop it.
In other words, maybe the elites should have more power?
micah: I’m a secret believer in that.
clare.malone: Why? To prevent chaos?
micah: Because the mob can be dangerous.
clare.malone: Why are you guys harping on that?
I think there’s something to be said about a cathartic political process.
Voters have watched their nominations be manufactured behind the scenes. What’s wrong with radical transparency?
Yes, it might bring a couple of rounds of voting, I concede that. But you haven’t convinced me why that’s bad in the end? As long as there’s civility among the actors, which I think you could engineer, it’s not a terrible scenario.
natesilver: The expectation among voters is that the most popular nominee will get the nomination.
Granted, there are different ways of defining “most popular.”
clare.malone: Which would likely be reflected in the contested convention votes. Right?
Norms have been less broken on the Democratic side of things, so I don’t think that’s an unreasonable expectation.
natesilver: Maybe? But the more ballots you go, the more divorced you become from the delegates’ original preferences.
We knew on the GOP side, for example, that many delegates personally didn’t back Trump and were big risks to turn on him in the event of multiple ballots even though they were bound to him on the first ballot.
A better-organized campaign will exert more control over the delegate selection process and be better at whipping delegates.
perry: I guess I view these rules as being a diss to the superdelegates. The supers themselves read them that way too.
clare.malone: That’s the point, though. They’re meant to diss. It’s the mood of the party’s hoi polloi.
perry: If Sanders or another candidate who is anti-superdelegates does not win a majority of pledged delegates during the primary, he should be worried. I wonder if the supers, on the second ballot, are even more unbound under this new system, compared to the old one. They could say, “You [Sanders’ supporters] said you wanted a system in which a majority of pledged delegates means you win. You didn’t get a majority. We get to intervene now. These are your rules. We are following them and we will now choose who WE want.”
micah: OK, let’s try it this way: Would these rules, had they been in place, have altered any past Democratic nominations?
Would Clinton have had a better chance in 2008?
perry: This is where I would like to do a more careful analysis.
But, yes, my instinct is that Clinton would have had a better chance to win on a second ballot in this new system. The superdelegates would have no role in the first ballot, but I think their role is enhanced in a second one.
natesilver: There are some primaries, such as in 1984 and 2008, where the nomination process would have been messier, although maybe it would have produced the same nominee.
clare.malone: I smell an assignment …
And then some fan fic about the alternate political universes.
natesilver: Yeah. My thing is that you want a system where someone can win on the first ballot with less than a majority, but with a reasonably clear plurality. Because it’s very common for the top candidate to have something like 35 percent to 45 percent of the overall votes in the primary.
There are two ways to achieve that: either through superdelegates or through winner-take-all/winner-take-most rules.
The Democrats have neither one of those now.
clare.malone: Maybe this is finally a concession to the big tent party that they have. And in the ensuing rounds of ballot negotiation, maybe you have compromises on who gets VP — like, a Warren paired with a more centrist person — we’ll see who comes along over the next couple of years.
micah: IDK, maybe I agree with Clare: Democracy is messy, so maybe it should look messy.
perry: I think those changes might be good (the ones Clare laid out). The idea that the convention picks the vp. But they give the elites more power.
Sanders does not want the party to pick his vp.
clare.malone: Well, that’s the concession he has to pay to be more of a player.
People have sold their souls for much less. A compromise VP when you’re the presidential nominee of a party in semi-shock therapy ain’t bad.
natesilver: One simple reform they could have considered is to give the nomination to whomever wins the plurality of delegates. Except in a few weird states, that’s how our electoral system works: Plurality takes all.
micah: Or: National popular vote. Simple. One day of voting. Highest vote-getter takes all.
perry: Can we jump back to the broader context?
The reason I am open to elites having more power is because Trump is different in terms of democratic norms, etc. I think Sanders would be better than Avenatti in terms of following those norms.
And the voters might blow it.
If we have weak parties and strong partisanship, do we want to weaken the parties further?
I’m not usually an elitist, but are we sure the voters are doing a great job?
clare.malone: This feels like the old argument against direct election of U.S. senators.
It basically comes down to the age-old question: Do we trust the vox populi?
micah: No.
clare.malone: Haha, so now you’ve switched teams!
micah: lol
Just kidding.
Do you?
How much “republic” do you want in your democratic republic?
clare.malone: I’m still arguing team small-d democracy.
natesilver: There’s also the question of whether ranked-choice voting would produce a different result. Like, suppose that Avenatti was the plurality front-runner with 20 percent of the vote. But most of the other 80 percent who didn’t vote for him didn’t like him.
clare.malone: I think you’ve got to have some faith in the voters.
perry: I want to.
natesilver: Although the GOP doesn’t have superdelegates per se, the fact that the party made relatively feeble efforts to stop Trump is also relevant here. It suggests the norm toward letting voters decide is quite strong.
And the stronger that norm is, the less dangerous that superdelegates are.
micah: I think Perry said this earlier, but I do think there’s a chance this empowers supers because it will erode that norm on the second ballot.
perry: Yeah, that is what I was hinting at — particularly if it’s something like Sanders 44 percent and Harris or Booker or Julian Castro (a non-white candidate) at 41.
natesilver: THEY’RE GOING TO STEAL THE NOMINATION FROM AVENATTI
clare.malone: I mean, he’s got his Vogue story in place.
Next comes the chummy Ellen interview.
perry: FiveThirtyEight contributor Seth Masket wrote that there was a big racial divide at the DNC meeting where this change was adopted, namely that some prominent black officials are opposed to the changes.
The Congressional Black Caucus, for example, likes the power of superdelegates in the current system. (Members of Congress are superdelegates, of course.)
clare.malone: Donna Brazile was making the argument that the DNC was trying to disenfranchise them.
micah: Why do you think there’s a racial divide?
perry: Because there is a big racial divide among party elites about Sanders.
Sanders did well among young black voters. But I suspect that he has very little support among black superdelegates.
natesilver: And there’s also the question of: What if in a close race, you had one Democrat with a plurality of votes/delegates but very little support among black or Hispanic Democrats.
You could argue that’s a case where supers should intervene. I’m not sure I like that argument, but you could make it.
Although, again, in any type of plurality scenario, the supers get to intervene anyway.
micah: How about this for a compromise: Have superdelegates but only let elected officials be them.
natesilver: Many/most of them are elected officials anyway?
clare.malone: Yeah.
micah: Not all, though.
perry: Most superdelegates are DNC members, according to the Pew Research Center, not members of Congress. But some of those DNC members might be elected officials at the local level.
micah: BAM!
clare.malone: I love that one of the subcategories of superdelegates is “distinguished party leaders.” Lol.
natesilver: How about: Let the nowcast decide in the event that no one gets the plurality?
perry: Nate Silver picks which candidate is most electable.
natesilver: Hahaha
hahahahaha
perry: If we pitched this idea to Democratic voters, that Nate picks the candidate or the DNC picks, they would probably go with Nate. I’m serious. I don’t think most Democrats trust the party that much.
natesilver: But see the most electable candidate would be the one with the most popular support.
clare.malone: O’Malley’s gonna make a comeback in that case.
micah: If all the supers were elected officials, it would still have a tinge of small-d democracy. It’s a good middle ground!
perry: That seems right to me. They would be accountable.
That’s the problem with the DNC — people don’t necessarily know who those people are.
natesilver: How about if there’s no majority through the delegate system, there’s a national 50-state referendum where everyone votes again?
That would obviously be cost/logistically prohibitive.
In some very real ways, though, polls could become very important under that scenario. For example, it was probably important in 2008 that Obama never fell behind Clinton in national polls, or at least not for sustained periods, when going through all the Jeremiah Wright stuff, etc.
perry: I’m going to play the Micah role here, because I was curious what Nate’s and Clare’s thoughts were about the caucus changes.
micah: Yeah, let’s close on that. Can someone give me a summary of the caucus changes please?
natesilver: My understanding is that caucuses now need to include a means for people to participate off-site — e.g., through absentee ballots.
perry: Right.
clare.malone: I think it’s probably a shift toward the right kind of “small d democracy” change I’ve been talking about. There are lots of good arguments that say caucuses mean that a lot of people who do shift work can’t vote.
natesilver: Caucuses tend to favor candidates whose supporters are (1) more enthusiastic and (2) better organized. I’m not sure that necessarily maps cleanly onto a left-right scale, and it can be fairly idiosyncratic from election to election who does better in caucuses.
clare.malone: Caucuses tend to favor insurgents, it’s fair to say.
natesilver: They didn’t in the GOP, though.
clare.malone: On the Democratic side they have, right?
natesilver: Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz (OK, Cruz is sort of an insurgent) did better in caucuses, and Trump struggled in them.
I think that’s mostly true.
In 1988, Jesse Jackson struggled in caucuses early on but then started to do quite well in them. It can be quirky.
Also, a lot of states have abandoned caucuses of their own volition and switched to primaries.
perry: So is this a big change?
natesilver: It’s not big in the sense that the Democrats didn’t have that many caucuses anyway, and they were mostly in small-population states.
However, there are often big differences between who does well in caucuses and who does well in primaries.
Without caucuses, Clinton might have won in 2008.
Without caucuses, Sanders wouldn’t have lasted nearly as long.
If the GOP had more caucuses, they might not have chosen Trump.
micah: To wrap, does anyone want to say whether all these changes help or hurt any specific potential 2020 candidates?
Or do we really just have no clue?
clare.malone: I think you have to wait and see what their support/activist system is like.
natesilver: Yeah, we’re at the stage where there are 15 billiard balls on the table and it’s hard to know what everything will look like after the break.
Again, my
take is just that it’s a bad idea to have neither superdelegates nor winner-take-all/most rules. Especially in a year without a clear front-runner.
micah: OK, to sum up, it seems like the best take is: These changes could have big unforeseen and unintended consequences — or maybe not. And to cap us off, I asked Julia (who has studied this a lot) to give us her take …
julia_azari (Julia Azari, political science professor at Marquette University and FiveThirtyEight contributor): I’m more ambivalent about the superdelegate change than a lot of political scientists, many of whom are generally opposed to them. This is mainly because I think parties need to think about how they can regain legitimacy, and if supers are left out of the first ballot but can legitimately come in in the case of a deadlocked convention, that’s a good thing.
Acknowledging the possibility that the nomination might not be wrapped up by the convention and that that could be something other than a total crisis is in my view a good thing. The emphasis on party elites unifying around a single candidate early in the nomination — in either party — hampers competition within the party and potentially prevents voters from having real power in the nomination process.. At the same time, my understanding is that none of the rules change anything about how elected officials can make their preferences known during and before the primary season (so people who are superdelegates can still endorse someone ,even if that endorsement is not effectively a delegate vote in this new process), and that will rightly be seen by some in (for lack of a better term) the Bernie camp as attempting to tip the scales in favor of more establishment candidates. If you could actually have a competitive convention without it being seen as a giant disaster, then elites wouldn’t need to head that off by endorsing early.
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What Republicans Are Running For President
New Post has been published on https://www.patriotsnet.com/what-republicans-are-running-for-president/
What Republicans Are Running For President
How Mitt Romney Could Wind Up Running The United States 6 Years After Losing The Presidential Election
If, as expected, Mitt Romney wins his race for a Senate seat from Utah he may become the most powerful man in the United States Senate. As many of us remember, Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts, ran for president in 2012 and lost to Barack Obama. It wasn’t one of those totally humiliating losses—the map did not turn blue—but we assumed Mitt Romney would fade into history.
Well, maybe not.
Here’s how. Just a few months ago, conventional wisdom was that while the Democrats had a good chance of taking control of the House of Representatives, the Senate was out of reach. In 2018 there will be at least 35 Senate seats up—of which 26 are held by Democrats. Democrats need a net gain of 2 seats to take control of the Senate. In an ordinary year this would be tough for two reasons. One is that incumbents usually win, and secondly, 10 of those Democratic senators represent states that went for Trump in 2016—so a somewhat popular president might be able to use his clout to win a Senate seat back from the Democrats. But this is no ordinary year as poll after poll and special election after special election indicate a “blue wave” for Democrats.
EKamarckrecent pollspolling aheadpolling close
Us Election 2024: Who Are The Likely Republican Candidates To Run For President Against Joe Biden
Mike Pence, Ivanka Trump and Ted Cruz are among the rumoured candidates to become Donald Trump’s successor
The 2020 presidential race has only just finished, but the Republican candidates for 2024 are already preparing themselves for their shot at the White House.
We take a look at who may be looking to get themselves in to the race.
Nj Primary Elections 2020: The Five Republicans Who Want To Take Over As Us Senator
Colleen O’Dea, Senior Writer and Projects EditorNJ Decides 2020Politics
Five Republicans are vying for the chance to try to do something no one else has been able to do in almost a half-century: Convince New Jersey voters to elect a Republican to serve in the U.S. Senate, where Democrat Cory Booker now sits.
It has been 48 years since New Jersey voters have sent a Republican to the U.S. Senate, and registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by nearly a million. In 2018, Republican and former pharmaceuticals executive Bob Hugin spent more than $39 million, including $36 million of his own money, and lost by 11 percentage points to incumbent Bob Menendez, who had been considered vulnerable after his trial on political corruption charges ended in a hung jury.
“Statewide races are the toughest ones of all for a GOP outnumbered by a million more registered Democrats in the state,” said Micah Rasmussen, director of the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics at Rider University. “But even before party registrations were so lopsided, Republican Senate candidates have fared more poorly here than almost anywhere else in the nation.” Since New Jersey last sent a Republican to the Senate in 1972, “the GOP has lost a staggering 15 Senate races in a row,” he said.
Thoughts On New Poll: Most Republicans Want Trump To Run For President In 2024
John Fletcher Jrsays:
May 29, 2021 at 11:48 am
There may not be an American Presidential Office to run for when Joe Biden is done. I still believe Joe Biden is a Counterfeit President. One thing is certain, Barack Hussein Obama is happy that Joe Biden now reigns as worst American President. America get yourself ready for HYPERINFLATION, it’s coming.
May 29, 2021 at 3:43 pm
I have hats of Trump that read ” make America Great Again”, Trump 2020?,and “KEEP AMERICA GREAT”,I also have flags of him ” TRUMP ON THE TANK”, “TRUMP 2020, NO MORE BULLSHIT”. and I just got a new one,“TRUMP 2024” and then I have a MASK that reads, “TRUMP 2024 and has 2 AMERICAN FLAGS .So I really hope he runs, otherwise all of this means nothing ! TRUMP 2024 and TRUE FIGHTING REPUBLICANSIN 2022 !! NO RINOS NEEDED ! STAND UP OR SHUT UP !
May 29, 2021 at 5:19 pm
IT is more than if he runs or not. YOU are sending a message that you stand for freedoms and still support that hard work he did while still in office. Trump stands for AMERICA FIRST and that is also part of your message to the leftists.You are sending a great message no matter what he decides….You know as well as I do that he is all about what is best for the AMERICA and All Americans….SO IF he supports someone else to run then we know that person is worthy of what we all need as AMERICANS.Don;t loose hope and wear your attire with pride knowing there are many others still hoping for another win.
Yes we want Donald Trunp be our presidentin 2024.
Republican Lawmakers Are Terrified Of Trump Running For President Again
A new report by Politico cites multiple unnamed Republican lawmakers – even those who publicly praise Trump – who say that they REALLY don’t want Donald Trump running for President again in 2024. They would much rather see Trump working “behind the scenes” to help shore up support for the Party as a whole, and they insist that the Party is stronger now than it was five years ago. Ring of Fire’s Farron Cousins discusses this.
Transcript:
*This transcript was generated by a third-party transcription software company, so please excuse any typos.
Recently, Politico interviewed several Republican lawmakers, who of course all chose to remain nameless. But Politico says that these were Trump supporting lawmakers, still are Trump supporting lawmakers, by the way. And each one of them said that they do not want Donald Trump to be the Republican party’s nominee in 2024. In fact, they don’t want Trump to run for president ever again. I’ll read a couple quotes from some of these lawmakers here. Here’s what one of them said, he’s one of the best presidents we’ve had in terms of policies. But having said that if it were up to me, I would never have Trump on any ballot ever again, because it’s such a distraction. I would love for him to play a behind the scenes role and not be on the ballot. Another one said, I’d like to see a fresh face. I think we have a lot of them.
Eight Republican 2024 Candidates Speak In Texas Next Week But Not Trump
Steve Holland
WASHINGTON, April 30 – A Republican Party event in Texas next week will hear from eight potential candidates for the party’s presidential nomination in 2024, without former President Donald Trump, a source involved in the planning said on Friday.
The May 7 event at a hotel in Austin is being co-hosted by U.S. Senator John Cornyn and Texas Governor Greg Abbott, to thank donors who helped fund a voter registration drive and get-out-the-vote efforts in the state.
High-profile Republican politicians who are considering whether to seek the party’s nomination in 2024 are expected to speak to the crowd of about 200 donors.
They include former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, former Vice President Mike Pence, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and U.S. senators Marco Rubio, Tim Scott and Rick Scott, the source said.
The event comes as Republicans wrestle with whether to try to move past Trump in the next election cycle or fall in line behind him. Trump told Fox Business Network’s Maria Bartiromo on Thursday that he was “100%” considering another run after losing in 2020 to Democrat Joe Biden.
Trump was not invited to Texas, the source said. Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley was invited but was unable to attend, the source said.
Many Republican insiders doubt Trump will follow through on his musings about running for president in 2024, leaving a void that other party leaders will seek to fill.
Fact Check: Trump Did Not Call Republicans The Dumbest Group Of Voters
5 Min Read
An old quote falsely attributed to Donald Trump has recently resurfaced online. The viral meme alleges Trump told People magazine in 1998 that Republicans are “the dumbest group of voters in the country”. This is false.
While the quote has been debunked several times since it apparently surfaced in 2015, users have recently been resharing it on social media. Examples can be seen here , here , here , here
The meme reads: “If I were to run, I’d run as a Republican. They’re the dumbest group of voters in the country. They believe anything on Fox News. I could lie and they’d still eat it up. I bet my numbers would be terrific. – Donald Trump, People Magazine, 1998”
Snopes first wrote about the false quote here in October 2015 . Since then, the quote has been debunked multiple times .
People magazine has confirmed in the past that its archive has no register of this alleged exchange.
“People looked into this exhaustively when it first surfaced back in Oct. . We combed through every Trump story in our archive. We couldn’t find anything remotely like this quote–and no interview at all in 1998.”, a magazine spokesperson told Factcheck.org that year .
In December 1987, People published a profile on Donald Trump titled “Too Darn Rich”. The article quoted him saying he was too busy to run for president .
The Long Race For The 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination Begins
WEST DES MOINES, Iowa — In the past week alone, Nikki Haley regaled activists in Iowa, Mike Pence courted donors in California and Donald Trump returned to the rally stage, teasing a third campaign for the White House.
The midterms are more than a year away, and there are 1,225 days until the next presidential election. But Republicans eyeing a White House run are wasting no time in jockeying for a strong position in what could emerge as an extremely crowded field of contenders.
The politicking will only intensify in the coming weeks, particularly in Iowa, home to the nation’s leadoff presidential caucuses and a state where conservative evangelicals play a significant role in steering the direction of the GOP. Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas is slated to visit on Tuesday, and others, including Pence, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo are expected to appear in July.
The flurry of activity is a sign that there is no clear frontrunner to lead the GOP if Trump opts against a 2024 campaign.
“It definitely feels early, but it doesn’t feel like it’s a bad idea based on the situation,” said Mike DuHaime, a longtime Republican strategist. “The party has changed, the voters are changing and I think the process has changed. And I think many of the candidates have realized that.”
“We won the election twice,” he said. “And it’s possible we’ll have to win it a third time.”
As for Trump?
Are You Ready For Republican Tim Scott To Run For President In 2024
The Senate’s lone Black Republican member, Tim Scott, is opening eyes and creating conversation about his 2024 political prospects.According to Fox News, Scott has brought in $14.4 million in campaign fundraising, after posting $9.6 million during April-June. The total amount in his campaign coffers has led many to believe that Scott is eying higher office than just the U.S. Senate.Scott has kept his name ringing in the political arena during his tenure in the Senate, especially after delivering a GOP response to President Biden’s primetime address to a joint session of Congress earlier this year. Scott has also led his party in negotiations with congressional Democrats on a major police reform bill.
While Scott has downplayed the hype surrounding his political aspirations, people on the Hill and talking heads on camera are noting that he could possibly be a 2024 Republican presidential nominee.
“Tim Scott is a force,” Jim Merrill, a New Hampshire-based Republican consultant said to Fox News. “His strong numbers reflect how he has inspired activists and business leaders alike, good for both his reelection next year and for a potential presidential campaign in 2024.”
Fear of a Black Landowner
With Scott previously downplaying the notion of running for president and his recent declaration that he won’t run for Senate after 2022, Black America will just have to see if Tim Scott will lean-in to the dollars raised to bankroll a potential campaign for the White House.
Reaction
New Poll: Most Republicans Want Trump To Run For President In 2024
A new Quinnipiac University national poll released this week revealed that two-thirds of Republicans want former President Donald Trump to run for president in 2024.
The Quinnipiac poll surveyed 1,316 U.S. adults nationwide from May 18-24. The poll’s margin of error was +/- 2.7 percentage points.
Three key Republican findings of the survey included:
66% of Republicans want to see Trump run in 2024
66% of Republicans do not think Biden’s victory was legitimate
85% of Republicans want candidates that mostly agree with Trump
“The numbers fly in the face of any predictions that Donald Trump’s political future is in decline. By a substantial majority, Republicans: believe the election was stolen from him, want Trump to run again, and , if they can’t vote for Trump, prefer someone who agrees with him,” said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.
Malloy is right. The poll reveals what many American already know — Trump still serves as a top conservative leader.
But is Trump still up for another run? And if he does, can he win?
The first question looks like a yes. Trump recently told radio host Dan Bongino people will be very happy with his answer. However, Trump has also previously said he would not announce whether he is running until after the 2022 midterm elections.
The more important question is can he win? If two-thirds of Republicans already support Trump, how many more will be required, especially in key battleground states, to reach the needed electoral votes?
Native American Voting Rights Are Under Attack In Republican
Paul Blumenthal
After turning out to vote in record numbers in 2020 despite the COVID-19 pandemic, Native Americans are now one of the biggest targets of Republican-backed voter suppression efforts in states where their votes mattered the most.
Republicans in states with significant Native populations like Arizona, Kansas, Montana and more have enacted new laws that limit voter access in ways that disproportionately impact Native voters. Imposing strict time limits on correcting a mail-in ballot, prohibiting third-party ballot collection, implementing strict voter identification requirements and making it harder to pay for election resources all negatively impact Native Americans in these states, largely due to specific circumstances on reservations where many of them live.
“The laws the state legislatures are passing are lethal to every Native American living in those states,” said OJ Semans, the founder of the Native voting rights group Four Directions and an enrolled member of the Rosebud Sioux Tribe in South Dakota. Such legislation, he said, “is going to knock us back 10 years” after “what we’ve been working through for the last 18 to 20 years to get more and more Native Americans to participate in elections.”
It wasn’t until 1962 when New Mexico’s laws blocking Native voting fell. The Voting Rights Act of 1965 also provided important protections for Native voting rights.
Trumps Role As Republican Party Leader Is Becoming Stronger
This weekend’s CPAC straw poll results showed that Trump’s popularity — along with DeSantis’ — in the Republican Party has grown in the last six months, according to Forbes.
In February, only 55% of attendees of a similar CPAC event in Orlando, Florida, said they wanted Trump to lead the ticket in 2024, Forbes reported.
If Trump stayed in political retirement, or at least stayed off the presidential primary ballot in 2024, DeSantis lead the poll with 43% attending Republicans choosing him in February’s hypothetical presidential primary.
Related
Inside the newsroom: Words matter, including the hateful ‘Murder the media’
When Presidential Primaries Started They Weren’t Decisive
Woodrow Wilson.
The Progressive Era at the beginning of the 20th century saw a backlash against local party machines and their bosses dominating American politics. This backlash was especially pronounced in Western states, where reformers implemented ideas like legislating via ballot initiative at the polls.
Progressive reformers also invented the presidential primary. In 1910, Oregon became the first to use a popular election to pick its delegates for national conventions, with the delegates pledged to support specific candidates.
But these primaries lacked the efficacy and decisiveness of those we have today, in part because most states didn’t have them and in part because the ultimate nomination decision was still made via a multi-ballot process at a national convention.
In 1912, ex-President Theodore Roosevelt decided to challenge his successor William Howard Taft for the GOP nomination. He crushed Taft in the primaries, carrying nine of the 12 states that held primaries, while Robert La Follette won two and Taft just one.
But that still left 36 other states, which mostly sent pro-Taft delegates to the convention, securing him the nomination. And that led Roosevelt to bolt the party and launch an independent bid for the general election.
But while McAdoo didn’t have enough support to win, he did have enough to block the party bosses’ favorite, New York Gov. Al Smith, a Catholic.
Why Donald Trump Is Republicans’ Worst Nightmare In 2024
Analysis by Chris Cillizza, CNN Editor-at-large
Earlier this week, amid a rambling attack on the validity of the 2020 election, former President Donald Trump said this: “Interesting that today a poll came out indicating I’m far in the lead for the Republican Presidential Primary and the General Election in 2024.”
this on Trump’s future political ambitions from Politico“Trump is confiding in allies that he intends to run again in 2024 with one contingency: that he still has a good bill of health, according to two sources close to the former president. That means Trump is going to hang over the Republican Party despite its attempts to rebrand during his exile and its blockade of a Trump-centric investigation into January’s insurrection.”new Quinnipiac University national pollhis growing legal and financial entanglementsAs CNN reported on Wednesday night“Manhattan prosecutors pursuing a criminal case against former President Donald Trump, his company and its executives have told at least one witness to prepare for grand jury testimony, according to a person familiar with the matter — a signal that the lengthy investigation is moving into an advanced stage.”
The Contenders Who Competed To Run Against Donald Trump
Tom MurseTom Murse
Within weeks of Donald Trump taking the oath of office as the nation’s 45th president, challengers began lining up to see who would attempt to unseat him in the 2020 presidential election. The controversial president faced early challenges from within his own party, but by and large, the focus remained on the candidates put forth by the opposing Democratic Party.
During one of the most crowded primary seasons in recent memory, several high-profile Democrats, including multiple sitting senators and rising stars in the party, competed for the party’s nomination. Ultimately, it was former vice president Joe Biden who won the party’s nomination. He selected Senator Kamala Harris, another primary candidate, as his running mate, and the ticket won the 2020 general election with 51.3% of the vote and 306 electoral votes to 46.9% and 232 electoral votes for the incumbent Trump/Pence ticket.
Here’s a look at the Democrats, and even members of Trump’s own Republican Party, who ran campaigns looking to unseat the controversial commander-in-chief.
Democratic Challengers
February 7, 2020
Former Us Ambassador To The United Nations Nikki Haley
Haley, 49, stands out in the potential pool of 2024 Republican candidates by her resume. She has experience as an executive as the former governor of South Carolina and foreign policy experience from her time as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations.
Haley was a member of the Republican Party’s 2010 tea party class. A former South Carolina state representative, her long shot gubernatorial campaign saw its fortunes improve after she was endorsed by Sarah Palin. Haley rocketed from fourth to first just days after the endorsement, and she went on to clinch the nomination and become her state’s first female and first Indian-American governor.
As governor, she signed a bill removing the Confederate flag from the state Capitol following the white supremacist attack at the Emanuel African Methodist Church in Charleston. She left office in 2017 to join the Trump administration as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, and Quinnipiac poll found she was at one point the most popular member of Trump’s foreign policy team.
“I think that she’s done a pretty masterful job in filling out her resume,” said Robert Oldendick, a professor and director of graduate studies at the University of South Carolina’s department of political science.
Haley criticized Trump following the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol by his supporters, saying she was “disgusted” by his conduct. Oldendick said he thought her “pretty pointed criticism of the president will potentially cause some problems.”
Republican Candidates Running For The Us 2020 Election
Bill Weld was married twice and has five children.
Weld ran for vice-president as a Libertarian on the Gary Johnson ticket in the 2016 presidential election.
As a conservative, Weld is strongly pro-choice on abortion issues.
The presidential race is on and the candidates are being whittled down to the very few. Who is running on the Republican side? Current President Donald Trump is going for re-election, and the only candidate now challenging him for election as president of the US this coming November 3rd, 2020 is Bill Weld, a former Massachusetts governor.
The 2024 Republican Presidential Candidate Wild Cards
The first Democratic debate back in 2019 had 20 — TWENTY! — candidates, so don’t be surprised if the Republican field is just as large or larger. We could have some more governors or representatives run, or even other nontraditional candidates, like a Trump family member, a Fox News host or a celebrity, like Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, who’s said he’s “seriously considering” a run. Stranger things have happened.
Who Wants To Run For Governor As A Republican In 2022
Pennsylvania Republicans have been battling with Gov. Tom Wolf since he unseated incumbent Tom Corbett in 2014. Many of them are eager to take Wolf’s place, but there is no clear frontrunner this early in the race. Several Republicans have already announced their bid, and a few others have hinted or shown interest in joining what is expected to be a crowded primary. Thus far, it’s hard to find a Republican candidate without some sort of ties to former President Donald Trump.
With a heated race to fill U.S. Sen. Pat Toomey’s seat next year, the GOP will have to be strategic about what candidates it wants to back for the Senate and for governor. Potential candidates will also have to weigh their options and decide where they fit best and can compete.
There are plenty of names that could be added to this list in the coming months, but here is our second iteration of potential Republican candidates for 2022. A couple of candidates have been added since the last edition.
Running
Former U.S. Rep Lou Barletta
Montgomery County Commissioner Joe Gale
Gale was the first Republican to formally announce his candidacy for governor back in February. An avid Trump supporter, he has criticized the Pennsylvania GOP and pledged to be a conservative populist. He’s also caught attention for and saying Trump’s presidency was sabotaged.
Former Corry Mayor Jason Monn
Pittsburgh attorney Jason Richey
Dr. Nche Zama
Charlie Gerow
John Ventre
For These Republicans 2024 Is Just Around The Corner
Mike Pence. Mike Pompeo. Rick Scott. They share big ambitions, but one name hovers above them all …
President Biden told reporters last month that his “plan is to run for re-election,” despite already being the oldest person to have won a presidential election. So, for now at least, the question of who will lead the Democratic ticket in 2024 has been put to rest.
On the Republican side, however, certainty is in short supply. It’s beyond early to be talking about the next presidential election — but that’s only if you aren’t planning to run. Some Republican candidates have already made trips to Iowa and New Hampshire, and others are laying plans to go, in what often represents the first step in building out a campaign operation in those early-voting states.
And on Wednesday, in a conspicuously forward-looking move, former Vice President Mike Pence announced the formation of a new political organization, Advancing American Freedom, whose advisory board is stacked high with former Trump administration officials and allies. The news came on the same day Simon & Schuster announced that it would publish Pence’s autobiography as part of a two-book deal.
The G.O.P. is badly fractured, trying to hold together a dominant base of those loyal to former President Donald Trump and a stubborn minority of pro-decorum, anti-Trump conservatives. Anyone looking to grab the Republican mantle will have to find some way of satisfying both camps — and maybe even expanding upon them.
Rivera Another Candidate Who Is Trying A Second Time
Another candidate making her second Senate attempt is Natalie Lynn Rivera. A social services coordinator from Sicklerville, Rivera ran as an independent under the slogan “For the People” in 2018, garnering about 0.6% of the vote.
Rivera, 44, said she wants to give typical New Jersey residents a voice in Congress. On her Facebook campaign site she calls herself a conservative. Among her priorities are restoring Second Amendment rights that she says are “under seige” in the state and outlawing abortion.
What sets her apart from the other candidates, she said, is that she “will be a servant to the people … I think I am authentic and will serve from the heart to put their best interests at the forefront.”
Another candidate running a shoestring campaign is Eugene Tom Anagnos, a retired middle school teacher who taught in Newark and Elizabeth schools. A Greek immigrant who now lives in East Hanover, Anagnos is an Army veteran who holds a bachelor’s degree in English Literature from Indiana University.
General Election Candidates On Five Or More Ballots
In addition to Biden, Hawkins, Jorgensen, and Trump, the following candidates have qualified to appear on five or more ballots:
Roque De La Fuente Gloria La Riva Jade Simmons Jesse Ventura/Cynthia McKinney Sheila Tittle Kyle Kenley Kopitke Ricki Sue King/Dayna Chandler
Incumbents are bolded and underlined The results have been certified.
Total votes: 158,379,904
0 states have not been called.
Here Are The Republicans To Keep An Eye On For 2024
Bradley Devlin
Republicans are paying extra attention to a number of Republican governors, senators, and former officials that might consider making a run for president in 2024.
The contenders come from various contingents of right-leaning thought, and will be fighting to capture parts of former President Donald Trump’s base. Whichever Republican hopeful prevails will not only become the Republican Party’s nominee, but also help determine the ideological trajectory of the Republican Party in the post-Trump era.
Vice President Mike Pence
It’s not uncommon for vice presidents to follow up their stint as second-in-command with a run for president. Former President John Adams, the nation’s second president, was America’s first vice president under President George Washington. More recently, President Joe Biden became the 46th president four years after he ended his eight-year tenure as former President Barack Obama’s vice president.
Vice President Mike Pence might decide to do the same, but Pence’s relationship with Trump seems to be severely tarnished after Pence did not contest the certification of the Electoral College results, as reported by The Hill.
Senator Ted Cruz
Texas Republican Sen. Ted Cruz could run for president again come 2024 after he defended his senate seat in 2018 from Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke. Cruz’s bid for the presidency in 2016 ended in failure as Trump captured the Republican Party’s nomination.
Senator Josh Hawley
Governor Ron DeSantis
Poll Results Are Fake Unless Theyre Good Trump Says
During his speech at the Dallas convention Sunday night, Trump said he only would have believed the results of CPAC’s straw poll if they were his favor, Business Insider reported.
“Now, if it’s bad, I just say it’s fake,” the former president told the crowd, reported Insider. “If it’s good, I say that’s the most accurate poll, perhaps ever.”
In the past, Trump has decried similar things he doesn’t like as false, like referring to unfavorable media coverage as “fake news.”
Early Nomination Contests Didn’t Involve Primaries
Presidents Andrew Jackson and Martin Van Buren.
Intraparty disputes over who should be nominated for the presidency are as old as the republic itself. But the modern system of determining nominees through a series of state primary elections is essentially an innovation of the 1970s. Before that, parties deployed a wide range of methods.
The Democratic-Republicans, the dominant political party of the early 19th century, used to select candidates via a vote of the party’s members in Congress.That method let it control the White House for 20 years, and lasted until the rivalry between John Quincy Adams and Andrew Jackson made the party splinter into the Democrats and the Whigs in the aftermath of the 1824 election.
Back in 1836, in the early days of Whig versus Democrat competition, the Whig Party even tried nominating several candidates simultaneously in their bid to block Martin Van Buren from succeeding Jackson in the White House.
In most Northern states, William Henry Harrison appeared on the general election ballot, while Hugh White got the nod in most Southern ones. And Massachusetts Whigs went with Daniel Webster , while Willie Magnum was nominated in South Carolina.
But it did not work. Van Buren won the election, and in subsequent contests the Whigs emulated the Democrats, picking a single nominee at a broad national convention with representatives from all states.
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US election 2020: Why Trump gained support among minorities
Latinos overtook the black neighborhood to change into the most important minority voting bloc this election
Regardless of his election defeat, President Donald Trump can boast a hit that has intrigued pollsters – he was extra common with ethnic minority voters than in 2016.
Some may discover this stunning provided that his political critics so typically accused him of racism and Islamophobia. Mr Trump denies being a racist and has accused Democrats of taking African People voters with no consideration.
The Republican president gained a 6% vote share amongst black males, and a 5% improve amongst Hispanic girls.
It means some voters modified their minds and determined to forged their vote his manner, after both not voting or voting for one more candidate in 2016.
But it surely tells us one thing about Mr Trump’s distinctive enchantment.
Brief presentational gray line
“I used to be positively extra liberal rising up – my grandmother was massive within the civil rights motion right here in Texas throughout the 60s, and I grew up with that ideology.”
Mateo Mokarzel, 40, is a graduate pupil from Houston, Texas and is of blended heritage, Mexican and Lebanese. He did not vote in 2016, and he is not loyal to both main social gathering – however this time round he determined to forged his vote for the Republicans.
“The primary time Trump ran I actually wasn’t satisfied. I simply thought, this is this movie star talk-show host man that wishes to run for president, I did not take him critically – so I used to be not a Trump supporter the primary time he ran. To be trustworthy, I assumed he was a ringer for Hillary, so I simply wasn’t ,” he tells BBC Information.
However Mateo says his upbringing in Texas colored his view of each political events.
“It is laborious for individuals who aren’t from right here in Texas, folks overlook that Texas was once a blue state,” he says. “The blue right here wasn’t just like the ideological progressives that we consider now, they have been extra the old fashioned ‘southern Democrats’ – very racist, very illiberal. So, it was a completely completely different social gathering, and I had experiences rising up on each side [of my heritage] of loads of racism.”
Story continues
Mateo has disregarded accusations of racism levelled towards the president. As an alternative, he says he was attracted by Mr Trump’s isolationist international coverage and financial insurance policies.
“He actually delivered on his anti-globalisation coverage,” he says. “Neo-liberal growth has actually harm each Mexico and the US, and when you’ve got household that dwell there, and you may see the way it’s harm folks dwelling, their jobs, their wages, it actually has elevated the narco-war, and this is likely one of the issues Trump got here in saying – ‘hey, we’ll tear aside these commerce offers’ – after which he really did it. That was for me the primary signal that he really meant among the issues he was saying.”
Mateo’s spouse Lily, a instructor, first-generation Mexican-American and likewise a Trump supporter, provides that she voted for him for financial causes – “our salaries have elevated since Trump grew to become president” – and since she likes his “real self”, regardless of her colleagues and her union supporting Mr Biden.
“The best way I have been seeing him attacked, the lies,” she says. “I by no means used to vote, as a result of I by no means felt my vote counted… And I really feel like, since Trump has been in workplace our lives have improved.”
Elizabeth, 27, additionally modified her thoughts in regards to the president over the course of his 4 years in workplace. She’s a Mexican-American voter from Laredo, one among Texas’s majority-Latino border cities wherein Mr Trump over-performed with voters this yr. She did not vote in 2016, and initially wasn’t satisfied by Mr Trump.
However when it got here to casting her vote, she felt the Republican social gathering greatest mirrored her socially conservative, Catholic beliefs – notably on abortion. President Trump lately nominated anti-abortion decide Amy Coney Barrett for the Supreme Courtroom, and mentioned it was “definitely potential” they may revisit Roe v Wade, the legislation that legalised abortion nationwide in 1973.
“My household have been all Democrats, it was an enormous line of Democrats in my household – however this time I did see a distinction,” Elizabeth says. “A whole lot of presidents make guarantees however they by no means maintain them, together with [former President Barack] Obama. With Trump, when he got here into workplace he got here in promising, and at first I used to be like, ‘oh yeah extra empty guarantees’ – however then I began seeing the outcomes… I do love that he is pro-life and pro-God, and for me that is crucial.”
In 2020 Latinos overtook the black neighborhood to change into the most important minority voting bloc within the nation – and are due to this fact a politically highly effective group. However it’s also various, made up of individuals from very completely different political and cultural backgrounds.
Even on points comparable to immigration, on which President Trump has been notoriously hardline, the Latino neighborhood is much less monolithic than some assume. A 2017 Gallup ballot, for instance, discovered that 67% of Hispanic folks mentioned they anxious a terrific deal or honest quantity about unlawful immigration – larger than the proportion of non-Hispanic white folks (59%) who answered the identical manner.
When the primary outcomes have been known as on election night time, there was shock when it was introduced that Miami-Dade had misplaced a piece of the Democratic assist it had in 2016. Democratic analysts puzzled whether or not the social gathering had completed sufficient to enchantment to Cuban-People, who make up a big proportion of that county’s voters.
The Trump marketing campaign’s portray of Mr Biden and Vice-President-elect Kamala Harris as socialists would have additionally been profitable amongst Cuban-People and Venezuelan-People.
Writing in Vogue, Paola Ramos – herself Cuban-American – says: “I come from a household of Cuban exiles and grew up round dinner tables that mentioned the crumbling of Fidel Castro’s regime – amongst household dialogue that plotted the awaited return to an island that was overtaken by communism within the early ’60s. Like many younger Cuban People in Florida, we knew the that means of Castro, socialismo, and comunismo earlier than we even realized methods to add or subtract.”
Graphic
The group that noticed the most important improve in assist for Mr Trump in comparison with 2016, nevertheless, was black males.
The black neighborhood has lengthy been seen as essentially the most solidly blue voting bloc, constantly lending its assist to the Democrats in massive numbers every election. This yr was no completely different – actually, in keeping with exit polls, white voters have been the one group wherein a majority voted for Mr Trump.
For that reason Sam Fulwood III, who performed the Black Swing Voter Venture this yr, tells BBC Information that the rise in assist for Trump amongst black voters should not be overstated:
“I feel it is extra hyped than actuality,” mentioned Mr Fulwood, who has been extremely vital of Mr Trump. “No different demographic in US society voted for Joe Biden in larger numbers than black males, besides black girls.”
However though black voters are likely to overwhelmingly vote Democrat, they don’t seem to be a monolith. In keeping with a Pew Analysis Middle examine from January 2020, 1 / 4 of black Democrats determine as conservative, and 43% as reasonable.
A 2018 Harvard-Harris ballot additionally discovered that black People are extra in favour of decreasing authorized immigration than every other demographic – 85% mentioned they needed immigration to be lowered from its present stage, and 54% selected the strictest choices out there – permitting fewer than 250,000 immigrants into the nation per yr, and even saying they might need to enable no immigrants in any respect. In an article within the LA Occasions that very same yr, former diplomat Dave Seminara suggests it’s because younger black males within the US “typically compete with current immigrants for low-skilled jobs”.
Teams comparable to Blexit centered on growing black assist for Trump
Of their e book Steadfast Democrats, printed in February this yr, Ismail White and Chryl Laird recommended the rationale black voters have so constantly voted Democrat up to now was not due to a unified ideology, however due to “social stress from different black voters”. Organisations comparable to Blexit, headed up by right-wing character Candace Owens, gained growing prominence too. And this yr, a number of black celebrities appeared to voice their assist for Mr Trump, together with rappers Curtis Jackson (aka “50 Cent”) and Ice Dice – though 50 Cent later rowed again his endorsement, and Ice Dice, who had backed Mr Trump’s Platinum Plan, distanced himself from the president’s precise marketing campaign.
Black Leisure Tv (BET) founder Robert Johnson additionally voiced many black voters’ frustrations with the Democratic social gathering, when he advised US broadcaster CNBC: “I feel black People are getting just a little bit uninterested in delivering big votes for the Democrats, and seeing minimal return when it comes to financial wealth and shutting the wealth hole, job creation and job alternatives… Joe Biden was not an inspiring candidate for a lot of black People.”
Mr Fulwood tells BBC Information that though most black voters he spoke to for the Black Swing Voters Venture overwhelmingly believed President Trump was “racist” and “incompetent”, in addition they admired how he “reveals power and defies the institution”.
“As a result of People are fiercely unbiased, they like robust management, and Trump initiatives the picture of being a powerful chief,” he says.
The president appears to defy authority, he provides. “I feel that resonates with a large number of, notably younger, African-People, who already really feel that the institution is weighted towards them. So his rhetoric faucets into their antipathy… They do not like him, they do not like his insurance policies, however they like the concept that he sticks it to the institution.”
Stephanie Muravchik, creator of Trump’s Democrats, additionally suggests President Trump’s enchantment to some voters was all the way down to his picture as a “boss politician” – an previous fashion of native politician whom she says could be personally aware of their city’s residents.
“It is a tradition the place males are completely required to defend themselves towards any form of insult,” she tells BBC Information. “Trump actually intuitively understands that tradition and adopts it as his personal. He says issues like, ‘by no means present worry, it is all about power’ – when he bought Covid after which recovered, he whipped off his masks. That will appear absurd and infantile to some, but it surely reads otherwise in these communities.”
The Covid-19 stimulus cheque despatched to US residents, with a letter personally signed by President Trump, was an instance of so-called “boss politics” in motion.
President Trump signed the letters that have been despatched out with folks’s stimulus cheques in April
“Trump actually needed to signal the cheques,” she provides. “As mine was robotically deposited, I bought a letter from the US authorities signed by Trump, saying ‘Howdy Stephanie, I’ve given you this cash, I am looking for you. Sincerely, Trump’. It was actually absurd, but it surely was sensible, as a result of it was invoking that mannequin of politician as protector.”
However even with all of this in thoughts, are the racism accusations off-putting for minority voters?
For Mateo, these claims have solely strengthened his resolve to assist Mr Trump – and to push again towards what he calls “media bias”.
“He has a powerful nationalist stance, they usually attempt to painting that as racist,” Mateo says. “Defending your borders and build up your financial system is one thing most People need… I do not see how that is racist or some form of canine whistle.”
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from Growth News https://growthnews.in/us-election-2020-why-trump-gained-support-among-minorities/ via https://growthnews.in
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