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taylorscottbarnett · 2 years ago

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As the US faces the risk of default one should remember about 70% of the US public debt is owed to the US.

Social Security, public (state and city) and private pension funds, and the Federal Reserve hold a significant portion of US debt. Over all the US owes 70% of all public debt to itself.

The debt ceiling was established in 1917. It didn't exist before then, and there's nothing giving Congress the power or authority to actually default on its debt. It's a very merky constitutional question: "can the US default?" Given how our system is set up. The Constitution specifically states in the 14th amendment:

"The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned."

Does raising the debt ceiling resolve US spending issues? No.

Raising the debt ceiling today does nothing to resolve America's spending issues. The debt ceiling is to authorize money that has ALREADY been spent and approved by Congress in previous sessions. Raising the debt ceiling does not authorize new money to be spent.

Inflation and the National Debt:

The US national debt is issued in yesterday's dollars from previous Congressional spending bills but paid back in tomorrow's dollars. The majority of this is in fixed-rate securities. That means that inflation actually cuts the real dollar amount of US debt. Inflation makes old debt easier to pay off.

In plain terms this means that the US has been decreasing its real dollar value of US national debt under the Biden Administration faster than at anytime in US History.

When measuring the US debt against the US Ecconomy, our debt is set to drop by the biggest amount in two decades. This is important and really the only thing that actually matters. This is a huge break for the US Government and taxpayers.

Example: in the first 14 months since Biden assumed office, America inflated away 2.7 trillion dollars of it's national debt.

In April of 2021 the Treasury could borrow one-year money at 0% interest. That corresponded to a very attractive real rate of about -4% by the time 2022 rolled around. In effect people paid the US Government 4% interest for the privilege of getting to borrow money from us. The current Tbill rate is even higher at 5.10%.

I can not understate this fact:

The US Taxpayer makes money off the US Government borrowing money.

The US Taxpayer makes a profit off raising the US borrowing limit.

WHY?

In simple terms, just think in terms of supply + demand. If you'll take my terms for a 2% payment why would I offer to pay you 3%, 4%, 5%? Demand for US Debt is high, so the US can offer it at very, very, low interest rates.

WHAT IS US DEBT'S ROLE IN THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM?

Everything. US Debt is the backbone of the world financial system. It underpins everything else. Stocks. Corporate Bonds. Mortgage rates. Life insurance. Everything is built on the bedrock of US debt. US Treasuries are considered risk-free investments, so it's the measurement to which every other financial tool is valued.

So when a corporation issues bonds to raise capital it's forced to compete with Treasuries for investment dollars. If said corporation becomes insolvent there's no guarantee bond holders will get all or even any of their money back. It must offer a rate of return good enough to justify the increased risk compared to US Treasuries. US debt is the foundation everything else is built on.

SIMPLE SUMMARY:

TL;DR: the entire world runs on US debt. Nothing will protect you from the catastrophic consequences of US default. Nothing. Not holding fiat, or stocks, or bonds. Not holding gold, diamonds, silver or Bitcoin. Nothing. All of these things are a financial system built on US Treasury builds.

There is no golden parachute if the US defualts.

Only needless suffering.

#bitcoin #us debt crisis #us politics #republicans #biden #politics

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ailtrahq · 1 year ago

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As the trial of the bankrupt FTX’s CEO Sam Bankman-Fried progresses, criticism and accusations shed light on the exchange’s margin systems. Zane Tackett, once the top of institutional sales at FTX, recently claimed potential discrepancies in the exchange’s risk mitigation strategies, creating doubt on Bankman-Fried’s defense in a revealing interview.FTX’s Terms Of Service Doesn’t Support SBF’s DefenseBankman-Fried, once a tycoon in the crypto market, is now under scrutiny for his claims related to the exchange’s margin systems. He has attempted to go through the legal and public discourse by presenting intricate details about the operation of FTX’s margin systems, particularly focusing on issues related to spot margin borrows. However, Tackett argues that the facts might not be as straightforward or supportive of Bankman-Fried’s defense as he portrays in a recent interview with the Scoop.The not-guilty plea from the co-founder of the now-insolvent FTX and Alameda Research, Sam Bankman-Fried, on multiple charges, including securities fraud and conspiracy to launder money, brings to light a pivotal question: Did unlawful access to customer funds occur, or did significant mismanagement trigger the financial downfall?Tackett said, “Sam’s going to essentially act as if he lacks understanding, but he’ll also try to overwhelm people with technicalities. I believe he’ll argue that it was simply a spot margin borrow — FTX clearly allowed for spot margin borrows. Then, he’ll delve into the intricacies of how this process worked and how Alameda could borrow because they had substantial collateral, throwing out big numbers like ‘we had $100 billion in collateral.’ He may also admit that our margining systems weren’t as robust as they should have been.”There’s No Point In SBF’s ClaimsFollowing FTX’s November 2022 collapse, Bankman-Fried denied improper access to customer deposits, attributing the downfall to a margin system breakdown and asserting the hedge fund had sufficient collateral to borrow.However, media and former employee, Zane Tackett, highlighted potential backdoors allowing Bankman-Fried and Alameda to borrow unlimited funds, contradicting the exchange’s risk mitigation measures and haircut system. Tackett emphasized the inconsistency in applying the margining system and suggested Bankman-Fried was fully aware of the risks and actions taken.Today, the WSJ reported that U.S. employees of FTX, aware of a backdoor in the exchange enabling Alameda Research to extract billions in client funds, reportedly alerted FTX’s Director of Engineering, Nishad Singh, but it was not fixed. The team, affiliated with LedgerX, a crypto derivatives exchange acquired by FTX in 2021, stumbled upon the issue while assessing the applicability of FTX’s main exchange code for U.S. use.A software glitch, originating from FTX’s unconventional handling of customer deposits, inaccurately inflated the debt Alameda owed to FTX customers by $8 billion, revealed a witness at Sam Bankman-Fried’s trial today. Former FTX developer, Adam Yedidia, shared that early FTX customers deposited fiat via Alameda, complicating debt tracking.A June 2022 accounting bug showed an overstated $16 billion debt from Alameda, which, even after correction, still indicated an $8 billion debt, raising concerns. Bankman-Fried acknowledged the vulnerability, stating they were no longer “bulletproof.”!function(f,b,e,v,n,t,s) if(f.fbq)return;n=f.fbq=function()n.callMethod? n.callMethod.apply(n,arguments):n.queue.push(arguments); if(!f._fbq)f._fbq=n;n.push=n;n.loaded=!0;n.version='2.0'; n.queue=[];t=b.createElement(e);t.async=!0; t.src=v;s=b.getElementsByTagName(e)[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(t,s)(window,document,'script', ' fbq('init', '887971145773722'); fbq('track', 'PageView');

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grcinfralocation · 2 years ago

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teshknowledgenotes · 4 years ago

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Charlie Munger: Academic Economics — Strengths and Weaknesses, after Considering Interdisciplinary Need - Notes

My personal history is interesting because it's deficiencies and my peculiarities eventully created advantages. For some odd reason, I had an early and extreme multidisciplinary cast of mind. I couldn't stand reaching for a small idea in my own discipline when there was a big idea right over the fence in somebody else's discipline. So I just grabbed in all directions for the big ideas that would really work. Nobody taught me to do that, I was just born with that yen. I was also born with a huge craving for syntheses. And when it didn't come easily, which was often, I would rag the problem, and then when I failed I would put it aside and I'd come back to it and rag it again. It took me 20 years to figure out how and why the Reverend Moon's conversion methods worked. But the psychology departments haven't figured it out yet, so I'm ahead of them.

But anyway, I have this tendency to want to rag the problems. Because WWII caught me. I drifted into some physics and the Air Corps sent me to Caltech where I did a little more physics as part of being made into a meteorologist. And there, at a very young age, I absorbed what I call the fundamental full attribution ethos of hard science. And that was enormously useful to me. Let me explain that ethos.

Under this ethos, you've got to know all the big ideas in all the disciplines less fundamental than your own. You can never many any explanation, which can be made in a more fundamental way, in any other way than the most fundamental way. And you always take with full attribution to the most fundamental ideas that you are required to use. When you're using physics, you say you're using physics. When you're using biology, you said you're using biology. And so on and so on. I could early on see that ethos would act as a fine organizing system for my thought. And I strongly suspected that it would work really well in the soft sciences as well as the hard sciences, So I just grabbed it and used it all through my life in soft science as well as hard science. That was a very lucky idea for me.

Let me explain how extreme that ethos is in hard Science. There is a constant, one of the fundamental constants in physics, known as Boltzmann's constant. You probably all know it very well. And the interesting thing about Boltzmann's constant in that Boltzmann didn't discover it. So why is Boltzmann's constant now named for Boltzmann? Well, the answer was that Boltzmann derived that constant from basic physics in a more fundamental way than the poor forgotten fellow who found the constant in the first place in some less fundamental way. The ethos of hard science is so strong

What’s Wrong with Economics

The nature of this failure is that it creates what I always all, “man with a hammer syndrome” And that's taken from the folk saying: To the man with only a hammer, every problem looks pretty much like a nail. And that works marvellously to sum up all professions, and all departments of academia, and indeed most practical life. The only antidote for being an absolute klutz due to the presence of a man with a hammer syndrome is to have a full kit of tools. You don't have just a hammer. You've got all the tools. And you've got to have one more trick.

You've got to use those tools checklist-style, because you'll miss a lot if you just hope that the right tool is going to pop up unaided whenever you need it. But if you've got a full list of tools, and go through them in your mind, checklist-style you will find a lot of answer that you won't find any other way. So limiting this big general objection that so disturbed Alfred North Whitehead is very important, and there are mental tricks that help do the job.

A special version of this “man with a hammer syndrome” is terrible, not only in economics but practically everywhere else, including business. It's really terrible in business. You've got a complex system and it spews out a lot of wonderful numbers that enable you to measure some factors. But there are other factors that are terribly important, yet there's no precise numbering you can put to these factors. You know they're important, but you don't have the numbers. Well practically everybody 1) Over-weights the stuff that can be numbered, because it yields to the statistical techniques they're taught in academia, and 2) doesn't mix in the hard-to-measure stuff that may be more important. That is a mistake I've tried all my life to avoid, and I have no regrets for having done that.

My fifth criticism is too little synthesis in economics. Not only with matters outside traditional economics, but also within economics. I have posed at two different business schools the following problem. I say “You have studied supply and demand curves. You have learned that when you raise the price, ordinarily the volume you can sell goes down, and when you reduce the price, the volume you can sell goes up. Is that right? That's what you've learned?” They all nod eyes. And I say “Now you tell me several instances when, if you want the physical volume to go up, the correct answer is to increase the price?” And there's this long and ghastly pause. And finally in each of the two business school in which I've tried this. Maybe one person in fifty could name one instance. They come up with the idea that occasionally a higher price acts as a rough indicator of quality and thereby increases sales volumes.

This happened in the case of my friend Bill Ballhaus. When he was head of Beckman Instruments it produced some complicated product where if it failed it caused enormous damage to the purchaser. It wasn't a pump at the bottom of an oil well, but that's a good mental example. And he realized that the reason this thing was selling so poorly, even though it was better than anybody else's product, was because it was priced lower. It made people think it was a low quality gizmo. So he raised the price by 20% or so and the volume went way up. But only one in fifty can come up with this sole instance in a modern business school, one of the business schools being Stanford, which is hard to get into. And nobody has et come up with the main answer that I like. Supposed you raise the price, and use the extra money to bribe the other guy's purchasing agent? Is that going to work? And are there functional equivalents in economics, microeconomics of raising the price and using the extra sales proceeds to drive sales higher? And of course there are a zillion once you've made that mental jump. It's so simple.

Berkshire had this former savings and loan company, and it had made this loan on a hotel right opposite to the Hollywood Park Racetrack. In due time the neighbourhood changed and it was full of gangs, pimps, and dope dealers. They tore copper pipe out of the wall for dope fixes, and there were people hanging around the hotel with guns, and nobody would come. We foreclosed on it two or three times, and the loan value went down to nothing. We seemed to have an insolvable economic problem, microeconomics problem.

Now we could have gone to McKinsey, or maybe a bunch of professors from Harvard, and we would have gotten a report about 10 inches thick about the ways we could approach this failing hotel in this terrible neighbourhood. But instead, we put a sign on the property that said For sale or rent“ and in came, in response to that sign, a who said “I'll spend $200,000 fixing up your hotel, and buy it at a high price on credit if you can get zoning so I can turn the parking lot into a putting green.”

“You've got to have a parking lot in a hotel” we said.

“What do you have in mind?” he said.

“No my business is flying seniors in from Florida, putting them near the airport, and then letting them go out to Disneyland and various places by bus and coming back. And I don't care how bad the neighbourhood is going to be because my people are self contained behind walls. All they have to do is get on the bus in the morning and come home in the evening, and they don't need a parking lot they need a putting green.” So we made the deal with the guy. The whole thing worked beautifully and the loan got paid off, and it all worked out.

Well I've taken you part way through the synthesis. It gets harder when you want to figure out how much activity should be within private firms, and how much should be within the government, and what are the factors that determine which functions are where, and why do the failures occur, and so on and so on.

It's my opinion that anybody with a high IQ who graduated in economics ought to be able to sit down and write a ten page synthesis of all these ideas that's quite persuasive. And I would bet a lot of money that I could give this test in practically every economics department in the country, and get a perfectly lousy bunch of synthesis. They'd talk about transaction costs. They'd click off a little something that their professors gave them and spit it back. But in terms of really understanding how it all fits together, I would confidently predict that most people couldn't do it very well.

By the way if any of you want to try and do this, go ahead. I think you'll find it hard. In this connection, one of the interesting things that I want to mention is that Max Planck, the great Nobel laureate who found Planck's Constant, tried once to do economics. He gave it up. Now why did Max Planck, one of the smartest people who ever live, give up economics? The answer is he said “It's too hard. The best solution you can get is messy and uncertain” It didn't satisfy Planck's craving for order, and so he gave it up. If Max Planck early on realized he was never going to get perfect order, I will confidently predict all of the rest of you are going to have exactly the same result.

Extreme counterproductive psychological ignorance in economics. Here I want to give you a very simple problem. I specialize in simple problems. You own a small casino in Las Vegas. It has fifty standard slot machines. Identical in appearance, they're identical in function. They have exactly the same payout ratios. The things that cause the payouts are exactly the same. They occur in the same percentages. But there's one machine in this group of slot machines, no matter where you put it among the fifty, in fairly short order, when you go to the machines at the end of the day, there will be 25% more winnings from this one machine than from any other machine. Now surely I'm not going to have a failure here. What is different about the heavy winning machine? Can anybody do it?

Male: More people play it.

Charles Munger: No, no, I want to know why more people play it. What's different about that machine is people have used modern electronics to give a higher ratio of near misses. That machine is going bar, bar, lemon. Bar, bar, grapefruit, way more often than normal machines, and that will cause heavier play. How do you get an answer like that? Easy, obviously there's a psychological cause: That machine is doing something to trigger some basic psychological response.

If you know the psychological factors, if you've got them on a checklist in your head, you just run down the factors, and boom! You get to one that must explain this occurrence. There isn't any other way to do it effectively. These answers are not going to come to people who don't learn these mental tricks. If you want to go through life like a one-legged man in an ass-kicking contest, why be my guest. But if you want to succeed, like a strong man with two legs, you have to pick up these tricks, including doing economics while knowing psychology.

My ninth objection. Not enough attention to virtue and vice effects in economics. It has been plain to me since early life that there are enormous virtue effects in economics, and also enormous vice effects. But economics get very uncomfortable when you talk about virtue and vice. It doesn't lend itself to a lot of columns of numbers. But I would argue that there are big virtue effects in economics, and also enormous vice effects. It doesn't lend itself to a lot of columns of numbers. But I would argue that there are big virtue effects in economics. I would say that the spreading of double-entry bookkeeping by the Monk, Fra Luca de Pacioli was a big virtue effect in economics. It made business more controllable and it made it more honest. Then the cash register. The cash register did more for human morality than the congregational church. It was a really powerful phenomenon to make an economic system work better, just as, in reverse, a system that can be easily defrauded ruins a civilization. A system that's very hard to defraud, like a cash register, helps the economic performance of civilization by reducing vice, but very few people within economics talk about it in those terms.

Religion. I say economic systems work better when there's an extreme reliability ethos. And the traditional way to get a reliability ethos, at least in past generations in America, was through religion. The religions instilled guilt. We have a charming Irish Catholic priest in our neighbourhood and he loves to say, “Those old Jews may have invented guilt, but we perfected it” And this guilt, derived from religion has been a huge driver of a reliability ethos, which has been very helpful to economic outcomes for man.

When I was young, everybody was excited by Godel who came up with proof that you couldn't have a mathematical system without a lot of irritating incompleteness in it. Well, since then my betters tell me that they've come up with more irremovable defects in mathematics and have decided that you're never going to get mathematics without some paradox in it. No matter how hard you work, you're going to have to live with some paradox if you're a mathematician.

Well, if the mathematicians can't get the paradox out of their system when the're creating it themselves, the poor economists are never going to get rid of paradoxes, nor are any of the rest of us. It doesn't matter. Life is interesting with some paradox. When I run into a paradox I think either I'm a total horse's ass to have gotten to this point, or I'm fruitfully near the edge of my discipline. It adds excitement to life to wonder which it is.

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cat-brodsky · 5 years ago

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richard pipen is the worst pre-med student ever: death caps in the secret history

"Judy, what would you do if you had a hundred and three degrees of fever?” “I would go to the fucking doctor,” she said without looking away from the TV.

must i say anything else

This post may contain errors, and anyone is welcome to point them out.

@sadbabywltch gets a thanks for the inspiration

some context

"You studied medicine for a while, didn't you?” [Henry] said.

I knew this to be a prelude to some health-related inquiry. My one year of pre-med had provided scanty knowledge at best...

I’m going to cite some parts of The Secret History, but I cannot copy the entire text of the scene in question. If you haven’t read it, this scene won’t make as much sense.

This post contains extensive discussion of mushroom poisoning as a murder method, so consider yourself warned. This post also contains math and biology, so people allergic to either should turn back.

Richard Pipen knows absolutely nothing about medicine. And I intend to prove that.

on amanita phalloides

Aka, death cap. The most poisonous out of all known mushrooms - half a mushroom (30 grams) is enough to kill a grown human. If Henry had really done extensive research, he should know that - and he said that he has.

“You have no idea how much thought I've put into this. Even to the strain of poison. It's said to make the throat swell, do you know that? Victims are said to be struck dumb, unable to name their poisoner.”

He should also know that the throat swelling is a myth. A.phalloides cause gradual organ failure. Symptoms of poisoning occur twelve hours later, too late to seek treatment, and death generally occurs six to sixteen days after the poisoning.

He should also know that there are less toxic species of Amanita. For instance, Amanita muscaria (fly agaric) is a hallucinogen, and symptoms take only thirty to ninety minutes to appear. Considering that the entire friend group has already been taking drugs regularly, Henry could offer Bunny a lethal dose, ingest a small one, and seek treatment.

There is also Coprinopsis atramentaria - the common ink cap, or tippler’s bane. This mushroom is poisonous, even lethally so, if combined with alcohol. I don’t need to spell the murder method out.

But, of course, Henry is high Intelligence low Wisdom and obsessed with ancient history; if Claudius allegedly died via death caps getting mixed with Caesar’s mushrooms, then it must clearly be the best way to poison someone.

on advanced calculus

“Let's say we know, for instance, that x amount of the drug in question is enough to affect a seventy pound animal and another, slightly larger amount is sufficient to kill it. I've figured out a rough formula, but still we are talking about a very fine distinction. So, knowing this much, how do I go about calculating the rest?”

Quick reminder that Henry killed one dog and poisoned another.

I’m not going to do calculations on A.muscaria or any other method of murder - A.phalloides is what the characters were poring over. I’m going to explain the calculations as simply as I can, and then provide some references for those of you who are interested in biology.

The characters don’t have the internet available, but they have the whole college library, a virtually unlimited amount of money, and a town where everyone takes illegal substances at their disposal. What they need is a pharmacology textbook (to look up the necessary equations), a reference on poisonous mushrooms (to look up death caps), and perhaps a handbook on toxins.

LD50 is what Henry is after - that is, “the dose required to kill half the members of a tested population after a specified test duration.” (I hope that the readers can already see that two dogs are not a large enough sample size.) LD50 is conveniently measured in mg/kg. We have the characters’ exact weights: Bunny is 86 kg, Henry is 97.5 kg.

Amatoxins are a group of toxins contained in A.phalloides, and the one that causes symptoms of death cap poisoning. LD50 of amatoxins in humans is estimated to be 0.1 mg/kg. Thus, Bunny would need to ingest 0.1*86 = 8.6 mg amatoxins, perhaps less, preferrably more, to be stone dead. Here I make an assumption that 0.05 mg/kg is not lethal; with Henry’s poor health, it might be. Henry would need to ingest under 0.05*97.5 = 4.87 mg to not be dead.

Oral LD50 for amatoxins in dogs is 0.5 mg/kg. Finding out the amatoxin content should be an easy calculation: X grams divided by 31 kg contains 0.5 mg. We know that X grams minus one gram failed to kill the other dog, so we can assume this is not low-balling the dose.

For the sake of ease, let’s say X = 31 -> 0.5 mg amatoxins in one gram of locally harvested, organic death cap. This looks close to reality. Per Yilmaz et al (2015) a death cap ingested by a patient contained 0.426 mg amatoxins per gram, and you can calculate that yourself.

And now a simple proportion:

0.5 mg (per gram) / N mg (lethal dose) = 1 gram / X grams (of mushroom)

Bunny: 8.6/0.5 = 17.2 grams (ingest more than that)

Henry: 4.87/0.5 = 9.74 grams (ingest less than that)

partway disclaimer

Of course, I wouldn’t stake my life, or anyone’s, on those calculations.

The toxin content of the A.phalloides can vary drastically depending on geographical location, season, maturity, etc. This could be remedied, I guess, by gathering a large amount of them, mixing them and chopping them into paste, then testing some of the mixture to determine LD50 and the amatoxin content.

From the data at hand, the exact content of amatoxins cannot be precisely determined. But, hey, Henry only needs to poison more dogs to find out!

and now for some more science

A.phalloides contains two main groups of toxins: amatoxins and phallotoxins, and also phallolysin. Phallolysin is not toxic if taken orally, so that’s out. Phallotoxins were found to have little contribution to death cap toxicity, perhaps because they are not absorbed through the gut. (Though it’s not certain whether the characters would have this information in 1982.) This leaves us with amatoxins.

Yilmaz et al (2015) describe a patient who recovered after ingesting approximately 0.32 mg/kg amatoxins (but after developing liver failure). This is why I’m assuming 0.05 mg/kg is non-lethal.

LD50 for amatoxins in dogs has been calculated for α-amanitin and methyl-γ-amanitin.

Garcia et al (2015) gives the amount of a-amanitin in different tissues of A.phalloides as follows (mg/gram dry weight): 0.67 to 0.78 in caps, 0.30 to 0.32 in stipes and 0.07 to 0.10 in volvas.

why richard is an idiot sandwich

Look, perhaps I’m misunderstanding what Donna Tartt has written, but Richard comes across as right for the wrong reasons. He’s right in that trying to non-lethally poison yourself with something so deadly as A.phalloides is a monumentally stupid affair. He’s wrong about everything else.

Faced with a simple calculation like the above, how does Richard go about it?

Equations about chemical concentration were never my strong point in chemistry, and they are difficult enough when you are trying to figure a fixed concentration in a suspension of distilled water; but this, dealing as it did with varying concentrations in irregularly shaped objects, was virtually impossible. He had probably used all the elementary algebra he knew in figuring this, and as far as I could follow him he hadn't done a bad job; but this wasn't a problem that could be worked with algebra, if it could be worked at all. Someone with three or four years of college calculus might have been able to come up with something that at least looked more convincing; by tinkering, I was able to narrow his ratio slightly but I had forgotten most of the little calculus I knew and the answer I wound up with, though probably closer than his own, was far from correct.

I didn’t know proportions required three or four years of college calculus. If the mushrooms are irregularly shaped, why not weigh them?

“It's a good try, but just by looking at it I can tell that it's insolvable without chemical tables and a good working knowledge of calculus and chemistry proper. There's no way to figure it otherwise. I mean, chemical concentrations aren't even measured in terms of grams and milligrams but in something called moles.”

There are different kinds of chemical concentration, and molar concentration is just one of them. “Something called moles”? A mole is, simply, an amount of substance that contains 6.02214076×1023 molecules (Avogadro number). This is sixth-grade chemistry. It’s also completely irrelevant here.

It’s a miracle Richard ever got into pre-med.

Henry, paraphrased: Oh, well, if I overdose - which I can totally figure out despite the fact that the symptoms take twelve hours to show when the damage is already done - I can just have some atropine. Atropine will totally counteract amatoxins.

...Never mind, Henry is also an idiot - though, at least, that is highlighted in-story. What does he plan on doing, drinking a whole bunch of atropine without knowing the precise dose he ingested?

“They are exactly opposite in effect. Atropine speeds the nervous system, rapid heartbeat and so forth. Amatoxins slow it down.”

No, they are not. To put it in plain English, amatoxins cause cell death - nothing about nervous system. Atropine basically counters the parasympathetic system, kicks your organism into fight or flight mode.

Do you know what atropine is an antidote to? Muscarine. It’s a compound found in certain mushrooms - such as A.muscaria, though only in trace amounts. Atropine and muscarine both bind to muscarinic acetylcholine receptors. Muscarine is not found in A.phalloides. Confusing amatoxins with muscarine is... I imagine it’s excusable if ancient Persian texts are your most recent source.

Oh, and one more thing while I’m at it.

“The Persians? I didn't know you read Arabic.”

In Persia (modern Iran), they speak Farsi, not Arabic. Oh, Richard. I imagine Henry took pity on him and didn’t correct the poor fool.

conclusion

There are two ways to engage with canon - from an in-story perspective (Watsonian) or an outside perspective (Doylist). I’ll leave you to discover what the third (Forsythian) perspective is.

From an in-story perspective, I am drawing the conclusion that both Richard and Henry are utterly inept at math, biology, medicine, and common sense; heaven only knows what “algebraic equations” they spent a good half hour going over.

From an outside perspective... well, if Tartt wrote all those errors purposefully, then it’s a nice bonus for any reader who knows basic medicine. If she didn’t, then I can fault her for not doing enough research. A middle ground is more likely: I’m certain that the 103F episode was intentional, but the Arabic in Persia wasn’t, since Henry of all people would lambast Richard for this error mercilessly.

half-assed references

Garcia, J et al. Determination of amatoxins and phallotoxins in Amanita phalloides mushrooms from northeastern Portugal by HPLC-DAD-MS. Mycologia, 107(4): 679-687. 2015.

Hooser, S.; Khan, S. Common Toxicologic Issues in Small Animals: An Update, An Issue of Veterinary Clinics of North America: Small Animal Practice: Ebook. Elsevier Health Sciences. 2018.

Tu, A.; ed. Handbook of Natural Toxins: Food Poisoning (1st edition). CRC Press.1992.

Wieland, T. Peptides of poisonous Amanita mushrooms. Springer-Verlag.1986.

Yilmaz, I et al. A Case Study: What Doses of Amanita phalloides and Amatoxins Are Lethal to Humans? Wilderness Environ Med. 26(4): 491–496. 2015.

#dark academia #the secret history #henry winter #richard papen #donna tartt #poisonous mushrooms #amanita phalloides #biology #studyblr #book analysis

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jtem · 5 years ago

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The 1%, our monied elite, the most classically conservative amongst the conservatives have three main financial goals for the post fossil fuel economy, and they are:

#1. Privatize the schools.

#2. Privatize the postal service.

#3. Privatize the police.

Now the postal service, the USPS, is a prime example because we have, or had, the single most efficient one on the planet. So there was no way in hell we were ever going to allow the selfish 1% to get anywhere near it, unless they broke it first. “If it ain’t broke don’t fix it.” See, if they broke the postal service then they could sell us privatization as the solution to the problem (that they created).

They’ve already done this, broke the postal service. They’ve inflicted the mortal wound and they’re just waiting for it to completely bleed out, so they can take over.

How?

They cracked open their check books, starting way back under Dubya Bush, and ordered congress to pass insane laws that force the postal service to “Prefund” expenses. In other words, the USPS was ordered to pay for expenses that haven’t occurred.

https://www.uspsoig.gov/blog/be-careful-what-you-assume

What happened is that, instantly, the USPS went from a financially healthy and impressively efficient organization to insolvent. They went from making money to losing a great deal of it, but only on paper, and only because the 1% (working through congress) told them they had to. And because they artificially bankrupted the USPS -- which was actually making money -- everyone started talking about closing locations, laying off workers, slashing services... THEY BROKE THE POSTAL SERVICE!

But as easy as this was it was even easier to break the police (so they can sell you privatization as the solution). You’ve been hearing a lot of very bad things about the police, right? But who have you been hearing it from? Well it turns out that the people keeping you so well informed about the police are the same ones who want to privatize them:

https://www.businessinsider.com/these-6-corporations-control-90-of-the-media-in-america-2012-6

See how this works? They whip you into hysterics, get you marching in the streets and then sell you privatization as the solution. Once that happens they order their media to stop reporting bad things about the police -- their police -- and you think that things have improved. They’ll be worse but, you’ll stop hearing about it so it’ll seem better.

This leaves the education system.

How do you go about destroying the education system so you can privatize it?

Vouchers!

The way the scam works is that they tell you if, say, your town pays $8,000 per child in the school system, and you would prefer to place your kid in a private school, then you should be entitled to a voucher for that $8,000 -- paid out of the local education budget -- which you can use to help pay for the cost of that private school.

It almost sounds fair, doesn’t it? If they’re spending $8k per student, and your kid is a student, and you want to send them to a different school, shouldn’t you be entitled to your student’s share of the money?

But that’s a lie. There isn’t any “Per student” budget and there never was.

Look. If there’s 20 kids in a classroom and one of them leaves, the teacher still gets paid the same. There’s no savings. They don’t get paid “Per student.” And the electric bills, the heating or air conditioning costs just as much if there’s 20 students or 19... or 15 for that matter.

School vouchers were invented to cause a crisis in education -- to break public schools -- so that the 1% can offer privatization as a solution (to the problem they created).

#police #USPS #public education #privatization #media #mass media #social media #puppet master #pulls the strings #wall street #protest #social justice #text post #txt post

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joeyrob1 · 5 years ago

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Peer to Peer Lending Sector in UK

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– Peer to Peer lending has 7 important differences in the UK compared the US. Otherwise, it is similar and growing.

– Funding Circle, Zopa and Ratesetter are the 3 major peer to peer lending platforms in UK. Their characteristics are listed and discussed.

– UK government had made it easier for investors and the industry is pushing for pension funds to accept it as an asset class. This would open up exponential growth for the industry.

– Public listing of this sector has started to allow international investors to enter the UK market with strong growth potential.

Introduction

In the previous article, we introduced the marketplace lending space in the United States. We saw how Lending Club and Prosper are replacing the role of banks and the method which they matched lenders and borrowers. In this article, we will turn our focus to the United Kingdom. The UK is another matured country for marketplace lending,commonly known as Peer to Peer lending there.

Source: Telegraph

As you can see in the photo above, peers are people with high status in society. Hence it is a desirable and honourable to call this marketplace lending as peer to peer lending in the UK.

Just like how Singtel, Starhub and M1 dominates the telecommunication sector in Singapore, Funding Circle, Zopa and Ratesetter dominates the peer to peer lending sector in the UK. These UK platforms are limited to UK residents to be either lenders or borrowers. The notable exception is Funding Circle which has a US based entity.

Similarities and Differences in the US and UK

Peer to Peer lending platforms are regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority since 1st April 2014. In the UK, these platform market themselves as an alternative to bank’s savings account. As a result, they abstain from the term ‘investors’ which is prevalent in the US and prefer to use the term ‘lenders’ instead. However regulations obliged these platforms to disclose that such ‘deposits’ are not subjected to the $85,000 deposit insurance under the Financial Services Compensation Scheme (FSCS).

Perhaps there are cultural differences in the UK, these platforms had to emphasize the safety of these investments to a population that are fed up with low savings interest rates but yearn for higher returns. Consequently, there are 6 major differences in the UK system as compared to the US:

Average interest rates are lower at 5% instead of 9% as seen in the US and minimum lending starts at 10 pounds (Zopa and Ratesetter) instead of 25 USD.

Each platform had to form its own provision fund against default. This is a business and not a regulatory imperative. This is one reason that returns are lower in the UK. In the US, the returns are higher but lenders absorb the full losses of default.

Automatic diversification of loans through pooling and ‘savings products’ are classified according to time frame (like fixed deposits without the insurance). Pooling is an advantage.

While the US investor would require USD$10,000 to diversify his loans properly by investing USD$25 in 400 loans, the UK investor would only require 10 pounds.

The exception is Funding Circle and you would need to use their AutoBid to diversify with minimum of 20 pounds and preferably across 100 businesses.

Strong emphasis on the ability to withdraw funds as long as there are new lenders (liquidity) after paying for fees and discount if interest rates rose. In the US, there are such secondary markets but they are not the focus.

Fully funded insolvency plan in the event that these platforms were to go bankrupt as part of regulatory requirements.

Trade body, Peer to Peer Finance Association formed to protect industry’s reputation by encouraging high minimum standards. For example, it has recently passed a directive to its members that all investors should be treated equally. Institutional investors should not be allowed to cherry pick the best loans first at the expense of retail investors.

The US has a much larger market for peer to peer lending and it loan out $12 billion in 2014 compared to $2.3 billion for the UK.

Source: Morgan Stanley

After looking at the differences, we move on to the similarities between the UK and the US. The motivation that drove borrowers to marketplace lending is simply because they can get a lower interest rates when compared to bank’s rate. They are there to refinance their existing loans for more favourable rates. For lenders, they can also get higher interest rate for undertaking modest risk.

Borrowers approach these platforms for small personal loans as seen below.

Source: Zopa

One of the appeal of lending on these platforms is that lenders know that they are lending to real people. This is seen in the personal stories behind the loan.

On the other hand, businesses borrow for the following reasons:

Source: Funding Circle

These peer to peer loans have been so popular that 77% of small businesses will approach Funding Circle first before they reach out to banks in 2013. Where banks would take 2 weeks to decide on the loan, these platforms would just take 2 days and the borrowing costs are much lower.

Features

After we have seen the similarities and differences between the US and UK system, it is time for us to dig into the characteristics of these 3 different leading platforms in the UK.

Funding Circle Zopa Ratesetter Year of Establishment 2010 2005 2010 Target Borrowers Business Loans Personal Loans Personal & Business Loans Loan Origination Amount (Pounds) $956 million $1.19 billion $912 million Loan Amount (Pounds) $5,000 to $1 million $1,000 – $25,000 Personal: $1000 to $25,000 Business: $25,000 to $1 million Loan Period 6 months to 5 years 1- 5 years 6 months to 5 years Provision Fund Not Applicable Safeguard ($11M, 120% cover) Provision Fund ($16M, 151% cover) 5 Year Loan Interest Rates 7.20% 5% 5.90% Fees 1% annual fee + 0.25% if you sell a loan 1% Annual Fee of Loan Lender : 0% Borrower : Late Fees Spread in Rates (Implied) Active Lenders 44818 59000 28832 Bank Barclays RBS Barclays Government Lending (Pounds) (British Business Bank) $60 million Not Applicable $10 million

Of these 3 leading platforms, Ratesetter is the only platform that does both personal and business loans. For companies that are offering business loans, they would receive investment from the British Business Bank as part of the government’s imperative to support local businesses.

Zopa is the oldest platform and it is focused on personal loans. While its returns and fees might lose out to Ratesetter, it has the largest number of active lenders. This means that existing lenders have higher liquidity when they wish to exit the loan early. This is one edge that Zopa has over other platforms. This edge is slowing eroding as both Funding Circle and Ratesetter are catching up in terms of loan origination.

Funding Circle is the most international of these 3 platforms with presence in 5 countries. Unique among these 3 platforms is the fact that it has no provision fund but it makes up with higher interest rates. It should be noted that Singapore’s sovereign fund, Temasek invested $30 million pounds alongside Blackrock in April 2015. They valued Funding Circle at over $1 billion with this deal.

All three have rigorous credit underwriting procedures to protect their reputation and their lenders. Zopa, Ratesetter and Funding Circle use the services of leading credit reporting agencies such as Experian, Equifax and Callcredit as part of the credit assessment. Based on the riskiness of the borrower, they are assigned the appropriate interest rates or rejected.

New Updates

A new update for the UK marketplace lending is the new policy that was recently announced by the Chancellor of Exchequer (UK’s Finance Minister) George Osborne would be the extension of Innovative Finance Individual Savings Account to peer to peer loans from 06 April 2016 onwards. The FCA is currently asking for public consultation before its eventual implementation.

This extension would allow investors to save on taxes and set the stage for the eventual inclusion of P2P lending as a debt asset class. This is what Zopa is actively pushing for in its blog to open up a new major market of investors. If institutional pension funds were to accept these loans as an asset, there will be another wave of exponential growth for the industry.

Conclusion

Peer to Peer lending industry is maturing in the UK and much of the regulations are in place to provide for the safety of borrowers and investors. Regulations are also changing to accept this as an asset class of its own. It is clear that the model of cutting out banks as the middleman are widely accepted by both the borrowers and lenders.

The UK market is much smaller than the US market and there are much room for growth. While overseas investors are still barred from investing in the UK market, Funding Circle has made it easier for foreign investor by being the first platform to float an investment trust on the London Stock Exchange called Funding Circle SME Income Fund. This small $150 million aims to provide 7% dividends and it is open to institutional investors.

This is likely to be the tip of the iceberg and Ratesetter has plans to be publicly listed following the footstep of Lending Club. This will create a fortune for its founders and also allow the global public to ride on the rising wave of P2P lending in the UK. That is all for the overview of the UK marketplace lending and thanks for reading.

Brought to you by RobustTechHouse. We provide Fintech Development services.

Peer to Peer Lending Sector in UK was originally published on RobustTechHouse - Mobile App Development Singapore

#FinTech #mobile #app #development #singapore

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since-the-900s · 5 years ago

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The Best 5 Examples Of Loans for Credit Score 500

Your score drops within the variety of scores, from 300 to 579, considered Really Poor. A 500 FICO ® Score is significantly listed below the average credit rating.

Many lenders pick not to do service with customers whose scores drop in the Extremely Poor variety, on grounds they have unfavorable credit rating. Bank card applicants with scores in this range may be needed to pay extra charges or to take down deposits on their cards. Utility firms might likewise require them to put safety deposits on tools or service contracts. About 62% of customers with credit rating under 579 are most likely to become seriously delinquent (i.e., go extra than 90 days overdue on a debt settlement) in the future. How to improve your 500 Credit rating The trouble regarding your FICO ® Rating of 500 is that it's well listed below the ordinary debt score of 704. The great news is that there's lots of chance to increase your score A wise way to begin accumulating a credit rating is to acquire your FICO ® Rating. In addition to the rating itself, you'll get a record that spells out the centerpieces in your credit rating that are decreasing your rating Since that information is drawn directly from your credit scores history, it can determine problems you can take on to assist elevate your credit report. Just how to obtain past an Extremely Poor debt score. FICO ® Scores in the Really Poor array typically reflect a background of credit report mistakes or mistakes, such as numerous missed or late repayments, skipped or confiscated lendings, and even insolvency. Amongst customers with FICO ® Scores of 500, 19% have credit rating that show having actually gone 30 or even more days past due on a payment within the last ten years. As soon as you recognize with your credit scores record, its materials and also their impact on your credit rating, you can start taking actions to accumulate your credit report. As your debt behaviors improve, your credit history will tend to follow fit. What impacts your credit history score. While it's valuable to understand the certain habits in your very own credit rating, the sorts of actions that can reduce your credit rating are well-known as a whole terms. Recognizing them can help you focus your credit history score-building tactics: Public Details: If bankruptcies or various other public records show up on your credit rating report, they commonly hurt your credit rating rating seriously. Even though your credit scores rating may start to recover years before a bankruptcy goes down off your debt file, some lending institutions might refuse to function with you as long as there's an insolvency on your document. The average bank card financial debt for customer with FICO ® Scores of 500 is $2,734.

To determine the credit history usage price on a credit report card, separate the exceptional balance by the card's loaning restriction, and multiply by 100 to obtain a portion. A lot of professionals advise maintaining application below 30%, on a card-by-card basis and in general, to prevent injuring your credit report score. Late or missed out on payments. Paying bills continually as well as in a timely manner is the single finest point you can do to advertise a good credit history rating. This can make up more than a 3rd (35%) of your FICO ® Rating. All various other points being equal, a much longer credit report history will certainly tend to yield a greater credit rating rating than a shorter background. Patience and also care to prevent negative credit history actions will bring rating improvements over time. Credit score scores reflect your total amount superior financial debt, as well as the types of credit you have. The FICO ® credit scoring system tends to favor customers with numerous credit history accounts, as well as a mix of revolving credit score (accounts such as credit scores cards, that borrowing within a particular credit limitation) as well as installation credit (fundings such as home mortgages and auto financings, with a set number of dealt with month-to-month payments). Recent credit task. Continually getting brand-new loans or charge card can harm your credit rating. Credit rating applications set off events called tough inquiries, which are videotaped on your debt record as well as reflected in your credit rating score. In a difficult questions, a lender acquires your credit report (and also commonly a debt record) for objectives of choosing whether to lend to you. Hard inquiries can make credit report drop a couple of factors, yet ratings commonly rebound within a couple of months if you stay up to date with your expenses-- as well as stay clear of making added lending applications till after that. (Inspecting your very own credit is a soft query and does not influence your credit rating.) New credit task can represent as much as 10% of your FICO ® Rating. Improving Your Credit Rating Rating. There are no quick repairs for an Extremely Poor credit rating, and the negative effects of some concerns that cause Really Poor scores, such as bankruptcy or repossession, diminish just with the flow of time. You can begin instantly to embrace routines that favor credit history improvements. Here are some great beginning points: Consider a debt-management strategy. If you're overextended as well as have difficulty paying your expenses, a debt-management strategy could bring some relief. You work with a non-profit credit report therapy agency to work out a convenient repayment timetable as well as efficiently shut your charge card accounts at the same time. This can seriously lower your credit report, yet it's less draconian than insolvency, and also your scores can rebound from it extra quickly. Even if you choose this is too severe a step for you, speaking with a credit counselor (as distinct from credit-repair business) may help you determine strategies for constructing more powerful credit report.

Credit score unions provide several variants on these tiny car loans, which are made to assist individuals develop or restore their credit backgrounds. It's a creative savings method, however the real benefit comes as the credit scores union reports your settlements to the national credit history bureaus. Make certain before you apply for a credit history home builder financing that the lending institution report repayments s to all 3 national credit score bureaus. Look into obtaining a safeguarded charge card. When you open a secured charge card account, you take down a deposit in the total of your spending restriction-- generally a few hundred bucks. As you make use of the card as well as make normal repayments, the lender reports them to the nationwide credit report bureaus, where they are tape-recorded in your debt documents as well as mirrored in your FICO ® Score. Making timely payments and avoiding "maxing out" the card will certainly promote renovations in your credit report. Pay your bills in a timely manner. There's no much better way to boost your credit report. Stay clear of high credit report application prices. Try to keep your usage across all your accounts below regarding 30% to avoid lowering your rating.

Public Details: If bankruptcies or other public documents show up on your credit rating record, they usually injure your debt score significantly. All various other points being equivalent, a longer credit score history will certainly tend to yield a higher credit report rating than a shorter history. The FICO ® credit racking up system often tends to prefer users with several credit score accounts, as well as a mix of rotating debt (accounts such as credit scores cards, that loaning within a details debt limit) and also installation debt (finances such as home mortgages and auto loans, with a set number of fixed month-to-month settlements). If you have simply one type of credit history account, widening your profile can help your debt score. Credit history applications set off occasions known as tough queries, which are taped on your credit history report as well as mirrored in your credit rating score.

Other Resources:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RyX1cyFTrXE&app=desktop

https://youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=RyX1cyFTrXE

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graceeeee05 · 5 years ago

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10 Ways To Immediately Start Selling Loans for Credit Score 500

Your rating falls within the series of scores, from 300 to 579, thought about Really Poor. A 500 FICO ® Rating is dramatically listed below the ordinary credit rating.

Numerous lenders choose not to do organisation with customers whose ratings fall in the Very Poor range, on premises they have unfavorable credit history. Charge card candidates with scores in this range may be required to pay added fees or to take down deposits on their cards. Energy firms might also require them to position down payment on equipment or solution contracts. Roughly 62% of consumers with credit history under 579 are likely to come to be seriously overdue (i.e., go extra than 90 days past due on a debt settlement) in the future. Just how to boost your 500 Credit rating The trouble about your FICO ® Score of 500 is that it's well listed below the ordinary credit history score of 704. Fortunately is that there's lots of chance to enhance your score A clever means to begin developing up a credit rating is to obtain your FICO ® Rating. Along with the score itself, you'll obtain a report that define the centerpieces in your credit report that are reducing your rating Because that details is drawn straight from your credit report, it can pinpoint problems you can tackle to assist raise your debt score. How to get beyond an Extremely Poor credit rating. FICO ® Ratings in the Very Poor range commonly mirror a history of debt bad moves or mistakes, such as numerous missed or late settlements, skipped or foreclosed fundings, as well as also personal bankruptcy. Among consumers with FICO ® Ratings of 500, 19% have credit rating that show having actually gone 30 or even more days past due on a repayment within the last ten years. Once you recognize with your credit history record, its materials and their influence on your credit rating, you can start taking steps to build up your credit score. As your credit scores habits enhance, your credit rating will certainly tend to do the same. What influences your credit report. While it serves to know the certain behaviors in your own credit history, the types of habits that can decrease your credit score are popular as a whole terms. Comprehending them can aid you concentrate your credit score-building techniques: Public Information: If bankruptcies or other public documents appear on your credit record, they commonly hurt your debt score significantly. Even though your debt rating might begin to recuperate years prior to a personal bankruptcy goes down off your credit rating data, some lenders might refuse to work with you as long as there's an insolvency on your document. The average charge card debt for customer with FICO ® Ratings of 500 is $2,734.

Credit history utilization rate. To calculate the debt application rate on a credit report card, split the outstanding equilibrium by the card's loaning limitation, and also multiply by 100 to obtain a percentage. To calculate your total usage rate, build up the equilibriums on all your charge card and divide by the amount of their line of credit. Most experts advise maintaining application below 30%, on a card-by-card basis and generally, to stay clear of injuring your credit report. Use price adds as long as 30% of your FICO ® Score Late or missed payments. Paying costs constantly and also on schedule is the solitary best point you can do to advertise a good credit history. This can make up greater than a 3rd (35%) of your FICO ® Rating. All other things being equal, a much longer credit background will tend to yield a higher credit rating rating than a shorter history. Patience and care to avoid bad credit history behaviors will certainly bring rating improvements over time. Complete debt and also credit rating mix. Credit report mirror your overall impressive financial debt, and also the kinds of credit rating you have. The FICO ® credit history system has a tendency to favor customers with a number of charge account, and also a mix of rotating credit scores (accounts such as bank card, that borrowing within a details credit history restriction) and also installment credit score (financings such as mortgages as well as cars and truck loans, with an established number of taken care of regular monthly payments). If you have simply one type of debt account, expanding your portfolio can help your credit rating. Credit history mix is in charge of approximately 10% of your FICO ® Score. Continuously using for new lendings or debt cards can harm your credit rating rating. Credit applications cause events understood as hard questions, which are recorded on your credit score report and mirrored in your credit rating rating. In a hard questions, a loan provider obtains your debt score (and typically a debt report) for purposes of making a decision whether to lend to you. Improving Your Credit History. There are no quick fixes for a Very Poor credit history, as well as the adverse effects of some concerns that cause Really Poor ratings, such as insolvency or foreclosure, decrease just with the flow of time. You can start quickly to embrace practices that favor credit score improvements. Right here are some great starting points: You function with a non-profit credit report therapy agency to work out a practical payment schedule and also successfully shut your credit card accounts in the process. Even if you determine this is too extreme an action for you, getting in touch with a debt therapist (as distinct from credit-repair firm) might help you identify approaches for developing more powerful debt.

Assume concerning a credit-builder car loan. Debt unions provide numerous variants on these small finances, which are designed to help people develop or restore their credit rating. In one of the extra popular choices, the credit union deposits the quantity you obtain right into an interest-bearing account that bears interest (instead of giving you the cash outright). When you have actually settled the financing, you obtain accessibility to the cash, plus the rate of interest it has actually generated. It's a clever financial savings method, however the actual benefit comes as the credit report union reports your payments to the nationwide debt bureaus. Make certain before you get a debt builder lending that the lending institution record payments s to all 3 nationwide credit bureaus. As long as they do, and also as lengthy as you make regular on-time repayments, these fundings can cause credit-score enhancements. When you open a protected credit rating card account, you put down a down payment in the full quantity of your costs limitation-- normally a few hundred dollars. Making prompt settlements and staying clear of "maxing out" the card will advertise renovations in your credit rating ratings. Pay your expenses on time. There's no much better means to enhance your credit rating. Prevent high credit rating application rates. Try to maintain your utilization across all your accounts below concerning 30% to avoid reducing your rating.

Public Info: If personal bankruptcies or other public records show up on your credit rating record, they generally hurt your credit report score drastically. All various other things being equivalent, a much longer debt history will certainly have a tendency to yield a greater credit report score than a much shorter history. The FICO ® credit score racking up system often tends to prefer customers with several credit scores accounts, and also a mix of rotating credit (accounts such as credit history cards, that loaning within a specific debt limitation) and also installment credit rating (finances such as mortgages as well as automobile lendings, with a set number of repaired monthly repayments). If you have simply one kind of credit score account, expanding your profile could assist your credit rating. Credit applications activate occasions understood as tough queries, which are videotaped on your credit rating record and also reflected in your debt score.

Other Resources:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RyX1cyFTrXE

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bayareatrustcom · 2 years ago

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How to Sell Your House Fast and Quick

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sfnewsvine · 2 years ago

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Social Security 8.7% cost-of-living adjustment may affect its solvency

Wand_prapan | Istock | Getty Pictures Social Safety’s common retiree profit will go up by $146 per thirty days in 2023, because of a document 8.7% cost-of-living adjustment prompted by excessive inflation. Greater than 70 million Social Safety and Supplemental Safety Revenue beneficiaries will profit from these increased funds. “It is the very best COLA in 40 years,” stated Andrew Biggs, senior fellow on the American Enterprise Institute. “It reveals inflation is a matter once more after having been dormant for actually a long time.” However these larger profit checks will price this system, by some estimates, over $100 billion extra in payouts. In 2022, this system will spend greater than $1 trillion on advantages. Extra from Private Finance: Social Safety cost-of-living adjustment might be 8.7% in 2023 Inflation is driving long-term care prices even increased Social Safety provides security protocols for in-office visits In June, the annual trustees report projected Social Safety’s belief funds will solely be capable to pay full advantages till 2035, at which level simply 80% of promised funds might be payable. The elevated prices might immediate Social Safety’s funds to succeed in insolvency at the least one calendar 12 months sooner than the trustees have projected, in keeping with estimates by the Committee for a Accountable Federal Funds. Different consultants even have expressed issues about how the elevated profit prices would have an effect on this system. “There may be actually an excellent probability that this might speed up the depletion of Social Safety’s main belief fund,” stated Shai Akabas, director of financial coverage on the Bipartisan Coverage Middle. The trustees report launched in June estimated a 3.8% COLA for 2023, primarily based on information by way of February. What’s extra, that very same report additionally projected a COLA of round 2.5% for 2024. “Given the place inflation stands proper now, until issues dramatically decelerate, it appears doubtless that that is going to be exceeded, as nicely,” Akabas stated. To make sure, different components reminiscent of immigration and mortality can even issue into any new projections for this system, he stated. “I think that the subsequent trustees report won’t be excellent news,” Biggs stated. How slower wage progress is hurting this system One key cause for that concern is wages, which haven’t been holding tempo with inflation. Whereas inflation rose by 8.7% over the previous 12 months, actual weekly wages fell by 3.8%, Biggs famous. Consequently, the tax revenues that Social Safety collects from employees won’t go up as quick because the profit payouts subsequent 12 months. “That is the way in which that inflation is de facto hurting the system proper now,” Biggs stated. In 2023, Social Safety payroll taxes will apply to $160,200 in wages, up from $147,000 this 12 months. Whereas that marks a “considerably increased” improve than in years previous, it nonetheless won’t be sufficient to totally deal with rising costs, Biggs stated. The excellent news is that present beneficiaries will come out OK, as the upper COLA results in larger Social Safety checks within the close to time period. However going ahead, it is as much as Congress to guage this system’s long-term future and determine what Social Safety’s function in offering retirement earnings must be, Biggs stated. “When Congress begins enthusiastic about that, then I believe we’ll have a greater probability of fixing the Social Safety funding drawback whereas holding the system working very nicely for Individuals,” Biggs stated. Originally published at SF Newsvine

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epacer · 2 years ago

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School Matters

Inside a classroom in a bungalow at Johnson Elementary School on Sept. 14, 2022

San Diego Unified Is Asking Voters for More Money. Here’s What They’ve Done with the Last Three Bond Measures.

In November, San Diegans will vote on the latest bond measure brought by San Diego Unified – its fourth in 14 years. Some of the priorities included are eerily similar to those in past measures, as are the claim it won’t increase the taxes of San Diego homeowners. Here’s the long view on why the district argued it needed each bond measure, and how the money was spent.

Proposition S and the Shadow of the Great Recession

In 2008, San Diego Unified put Proposition S, the “San Diego School Repair and Safety Measure,” on the ballot. It was pitched by supporters as a badly needed cash infusion to “fight urban decay in San Diego City schools.” Like November’s Measure U, the district also claimed that since it was essentially replacing 1998’s Prop MM, the existing tax rate wouldn’t increase.

Opponents argued it was a second mortgage on San Diegans’ homes that came at a time when Prop MM was still being paid down. “Will they try for a third, a fourth, or fifth, just because they can? You bet they will,” wrote Pat Flannery, a political gadfly, in a 2008 letter.

Voters approved the bond, allowing the district to levy up to $66.70 per $100,000 of assessed property value to pay for projects like removing asbestos and mold, fixing unsafe school drop-off and pick-up zones, installing security systems, renovating classrooms and replacing portable classrooms. Another significant program launched with Prop S that continues to this day was the i21 classroom initiative, which promised to refresh classroom technology every five years.

But when the Great Recession hit, property tax revenue tumbled. Faced with a revenue shortfall, the district delayed some projects, which drove up the interest it owed. Struggling with a lack of a consistent source of funds to keep up with repairs, the district in 2010 opted to delay paying back some of its bonds.

By 2011, the housing market crash had so diminished revenue that district administrators were pushing SDUSD to halt construction, with some officials projecting that the money coming in would only be enough to continue to pay off MM. A continued lack of consistent revenue from the state, a ballooning number of IOU’s, a credit rating downgrade and a looming budget deficit prompted largely by staffing costs left the district considering closing over a dozen schools. In November it decided against the closures, but the board floated a new bond.

Prop Z — Stadiums And “Whole Site Modernizations”

Amid its financial turmoil, the district argued a new bond, though it couldn’t go to staff pay, would free up funds entangled in construction and renovation that could then go to staff – which made up over 90 percent of its costs.

The district also argued that it would be able to save on costs like energy and water by upgrading school infrastructure.

At the time, homeowners paid $67 per every $100,000 in assessed value, but all that revenue was paying off projects already completed. Swamped with debt, the district had no way to tap into the $1.7 billion it was still allowed to borrow via Prop S.

Or, the district said, voters could approve another bond measure, along with a property tax increase – now dubbed Prop Z, which ultimately passed. After years of fiscal chaos, which included a budget deficit as high as $120 million, the layoff of 20 percent of its teachers and the district nearing the brink of insolvency, there was a bit of optimism. Statewide, Proposition 30 also raised funds for education.

But from 2009 to 2015, 43 percent of what the district had spent to modernize schools went to new stadiums and athletic facilities, while some repairs had to wait until the district embarked on a “whole site modernization,” a process that brings schools up to code and repairs all major issues at once. By 2015, the district completed only six of the roughly 140 whole site modernization projects voters had approved.

Gone were the warnings of the danger of asbestos-ridden classrooms in Prop Z’s messaging. In fact, the district asserted, asbestos was never really a risk anyway. The district argued stadiums needed to be ADA compliant, that they provide a sense of pride that increases test scores, that if some schools had nice stadiums, all schools should and the bleakly political logic that sometimes curb appeal simply wins out.

“The things that people want to prioritize aren’t always the things we need to prioritize,” former SDUSD board member Scott Barnett said at the time. “It’s about what the parents want and what the politicians want. Look, you can’t do a ribbon-cutting on new plumbing, right? But you can do it on a new stadium.”

By 2016, SDUSD had spent $1 billion in funds from Props S and Z, but only $200 million had gone toward projects considered major repairs or renovations to existing facilities, and during that time the condition of SDUSD schools actually got worse. But even as facility conditions improved somewhat, they didn’t amount to the improvements originally projected, and the district telegraphed the need for much more funding.

In 2017, SDUSD found elevated lead levels at fixtures in three schools. Replacing plumbing at one of those schools, Emerson-Bandini Elementary, had been highlighted as a reason to pass both Props S and Z. Yet none of the $1.7 million spent at the school – like hundreds of thousands that went to a turf field and solar panels – went to plumbing. The district insisted those projects didn’t delay plumbing fixes, which they’d planned to take care of during a whole site modernization project that ultimately kicked off in 2019.

So began the era of Measure YY.

Measure YY – Déjà Vu All Over Again

Like Prop Z, Measure YY levied a new tax of $60 for every $100,000 assessed property value. The similarities didn’t stop there. Measure YY’s spending priorities bore a striking resemblance to those from the past two bond measures and included classroom renovations and security improvements – priorities the board has listed for yet another bond measure four years later. The district argued that even given new statewide investments in schools, it needed the bond to offset budget cuts made during the Great Recession, despite its budget rebounding years earlier.

But the key selling point to YY was providing kids drinking water safe from lead. Despite promises to repair and upgrade plumbing with past bond money, and the district spending hundreds of thousands to test taps and replace ones found to have higher-than-allowed lead levels, the district said it needed additional funds to finish the job.

District officials also argued that though there was still billions left from the previous two bond measures, estimates of the costs of repairs exceeded that amount, so a new bond measure would be needed at some point. Voters ultimately approved Measure YY, making the district three for three in bond measures over a decade.

The district touts major bond-funded construction and renovation projects completed in recent years as evidence of the benefits of previous bonds and its ability to spend funds in a fiscally responsible manner. Maureen Magee, SDUSD’s communications director wrote in an email that a total of 195 projects have been completed since the passage of Prop S, including over 100 new classrooms and career and technical education facilities, nearly 100 playfields and an entirely new elementary school in Mission Valley.

They also include the $180 million rebuild and restructuring of struggling Memorial Prep that gave Logan Heights its first ever high school. There are also over 100 projects at some point in the design and bid or construction phase, and the condition of district buildings has significantly increased in the past five years, with district officials projecting continued increases over the coming years. SDUSD’s also added at least some filtered drinking water outlets at every school districtwide.

Magee has also argued that previous bond measures have allowed the district to save money, citing reduced energy and maintenance costs from updating outdated facilities. SDUSD projects its solar installations will produce 50 percent of its energy needs by the end of the year, saving around $6 million annually.

Now, with November’s Measure U, the district is hoping despite its share of bond spending controversies, the projects it has completed are enough to convince voters to extend the winning streak. *Reposted article from the VOSD by Jakob McWhinney, October 5, 2022

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islamic-finance · 6 years ago

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Penalty of Default

Another problem in murabahah financing is that if the client defaults in payment of the price at the due date, the price cannot be increased. In interest-based loans, the amount of loan keeps on increasing according to the period of default. But in murabahah financing, once the price is fixed, it cannot be increased. This restriction is sometimes exploited by dishonest clients who deliberately avoid to pay the price at its due date, because they know that they will not have to pay any additional amount on account of default.

This characteristic of murabahah should not create a big problem in a country where all the banks and financial institutions are run on Islamic principles, because the government or the central bank may develop a system where such defaultors may be penalized by depriving them from obtaining any facility from any financial institution. This system may serve a deterrent against deliberate defaults. However, in the countries where the Islamic banks and financial institutions are working in isolation from the majority of financial institutions run on the basis of interest, this system can hardly work, because even if the client is deprived to avail of a facility from an Islamic bank, he can approach the conventional institutions.

In order to solve this problem, some contemporary scholars have suggested that the dishonest clients who default in payment deliberately should be made liable to pay compensation to the Islamic bank for the loss it may have suffered on account of default.

They suggest that the amount of this compensation may be equal to the profit given by that bank to its depositors during the period of default. For example, the defaulter has paid the price three months after the due date. If the bank has given to its depositors a profit at the rate of 5%, the client has to pay 5% more as compensation for the loss of the bank. However, the scholars who allow this compensation make it subject to the following conditions:

(a) The defaulter should be given a grace period of at least one month after the maturity date during which he must be given weekly notices warning him that he should pay the price, otherwise he will have to pay compensation.

(b) It is proved beyond doubt that the client is defaulting without valid excuse. If it appears that his default is due to poverty, no compensation can be claimed from him. Indeed, he must be given respite until he is able to pay, because the Holy Qur’an has expressly said,

(c) The compensation is allowed only if the investment account of the Islamic bank has earned some profit to be distributed to the depositors. If the investment account of the bank has not earned profit during the period of default, no compensation shall be claimed from the client.

This concept of compensation, however, is not accepted by the majority of the present day scholars. (including the author). It is the considered opinion of such scholars that this suggestion neither conforms to the principles of Shari‘ah nor is it able to solve the problem of default.

First of all, any additional amount charged from a debtor is riba. In the days of Jahiliyyah (before Islam) the people used to charge additional amounts from their debtors when they were not able to pay at the due date. They used to say,

The aforementioned suggestion of paying compensation to the creditor/seller resembles the same attitude.

It can be argued that the above suggestion is theoretically different from the practice of jahiliyyah in that the suggestion is to grant the debtor a grace period of one month to make sure that he is avoiding payment without a valid cause and to exempt him from compensation if it appears that his non-payment is due to poverty or a hardship. But in practical application of the concept, these conditions are hardly fulfilled, because every debtor may claim that his default is due to his financial inability at the due date, and it is very difficult for a financial institution to hold an inquiry about the financial position of each client and to verify whether or not he was able to pay. What the banks normally do is that they presume that every client was able to pay unless he has been declared as bankrupt or insolvent. It means that the concession allowed in the suggestion can be enjoyed only by the insolvent people. Obviously, insolvency is a rare phenomenon, and in this rare situation, even the interest-based banks cannot normally recover interest from the borrower. Therefore, the suggestion leaves no practical and meaningful difference between an interest based financing and an Islamic financing.

So far as grace period is concerned, it is a minor concession which is sometimes given by the conventional banks as well. Once again, in practical terms, there is no material difference between interest and the late payment charged as compensation.

It is argued in favor of charging compensation that the Holy Prophet صلى الله عليه وسلم has condemned the person who delays the payment of his dues without a valid cause. According to the well-known hadith he has said,

The argument runs that the Holy Prophet صلى الله عليه وسلم has permitted to inflict a punishment on such a person. The punishments may be of different kinds, including the imposition of a monetary penalty. But this argument overlooks the fact that even if it is assumed that imposing fine or a monetary penalty is allowed in Shari‘ah, it is imposed by a court of law and is normally paid to the government.

Nobody has allowed a situation where an aggrieved party imposes the fine on its own (and for its own benefit) without a judgment of a court, competent to decide the matter. [15]

Moreover, had it been a recognized punishment, it should have been imposed even if the investment account has earned no profit during that period, because the guilt of the defaulter is established and it has no nexus with the profit of the investment account of the bank.

In fact, the suggestion of compensation equal to the rate of profit of the investment account is based on the concept of opportunity cost of money. This concept is foreign to the principles of Shari‘ah. Islam does not recognize opportunity cost of money, because after the elimination of interest from the economy, money has no definite return. It is always exposed to loss as well as it has the ability to earn a profit. And it is the risk of loss which makes it entitled to gain a return.

Another point is worth attention. The one who defaults in payment of debt is, at the most, like a thief or a usurper. But the study of the rules prescribed for theft and usurpation would show that a thief has been subjected to very severe punishment of amputating his hands, but he was never asked to pay an additional mount to compensate the victim of theft. Similarly, if a person has usurped the money of another person, he may be punished by way of ta’zir, but no Muslim jurist has ever imposed on him a financial penalty to compensate the owner. Imam al-Shafi’i is of the view that if someone usurps the land of another person, he will have to pay the rent of the land according to the market rate. But if he has usurped money, he will return the equal amount of money and not more.[16]

All these rules go a long way to prove that the opportunity cost of money is never recognized by the Islamic Shari‘ah, because, as explained above, money has no definite return, nor any intrinsic utility.

On the basis of what is stated above, the idea of compensation to be charged from a defaulter is not approved by most of the contemporary scholars. The question was thoroughly discussed in the annual session of Islamic Fiqh Academy, Jeddah, and it was resolved that no such compensation is allowed in Shari‘ah. [17]

All this discussion relates to the impermissibility of the proposed compensation in Shari‘ah. Now it is to be noted that this proposal does not solve the problem of default at all. To the contrary, it may encourage the debtors to commit as much default as they wish. The reason is that, according to this suggestion, the defaulter is asked to pay compensation equal to the return earned by the depositors during the period of default. It is evident that the rate of return earned by the depositors is always less than the rate of profit paid by the customer in a murabahah transaction. Therefore, the customer will be paying after default, much less than he was paying before the default. Therefore, he would willingly accept to pay this amount and not pay the amount of price which he will invest in a more profitable activity. Suppose the rate of profit agreed in a murabahah transaction of six moths is 15% p.a. and the rate of profit declared to the depositors is 10%. p.a. It means that if the client withholds the price of murabahah after its maturity date and keeps it for another six months, he will have to pay the compensation at the rate of 10% p.a. which is much less than the rate of original murabahah (i.e. 15%). As such he will default and enjoy another facility for the next six months at a lesser rate. This proposal, therefore, is not only against Shari‘ah, but also deficient in meeting the problem of default.

The Alternative Suggestion

The question now arises as to how the banks and financial institutions may solve this problem. If nothing is charged from the defaulters, it may be a greater incentive for a dishonest person to default continuously. Here is the answer to this question:

We have already mentioned that the real solution to this problem is to develop a system where the defaulters are duly punished by depriving them from enjoying a financial facility in future. However, as commented earlier, this may be only where the whole banking system is based on Islamic principles, or the Islamic banks are given due protection against defaulters. Therefore, up to a time when this goal is reached, we may need some other alternative.

For this purpose it was suggested that the client, when entering into a murabahah transaction, should undertake that in case he defaults in payment at the due date, he will pay a specified amount to a charitable fund maintained by the bank. It must be ensured that no part of this amount shall form part of the income of the bank. However, the bank may establish a charitable fund for this purpose and all amounts credited therein shall be exclusively used for purely charitable purpose approved by the Shari‘ah. The bank may also advance interest-free loans to the needy persons from this charitable fund.

This proposal is based on a ruling given by some Maliki jurists who say that if a debtor is asked to pay an additional amount in case of default, it is not allowed by Shari‘ah, because it amounts to charging interest. However, in order to assure the creditor of prompt payment, the debtor may undertake to give some amount in charity in case of default. This is, in fact, a sort of Yamin (vow) which is a self-imposed penalty to keep oneself away from default.

Normally, such ‘vows’ create a moral or religious obligation and are not enforceable through courts. However, some Maliki jurists allow to make it justiceable, [18] Therefore, in cases of genuine need, this view can be acted upon. But, while implementing this proposal, the following points must be kept in mind.

1. The proposal is meant only to pressurize the debtors on paying their dues promptly and not to increase the income of the creditor / financier, nor to compensate him for his opportunity cost. Therefore, it must be ensured that no part of the penalty forms part of the income of the bank in any case, nor can it be used to pay taxes or to set-off any liability of the financier.

2. Since the amount of penalty is not deserved by the financier as his income, but it goes to charity, it may be any amount willfully undertaken by the debtor. It can also be determined on per cent per annum basis. Therefore, it may serve as a real deterrent against deliberate default, unlike the former suggestion of compensation which, as explained earlier, may tend to encourage the defaults.

3. Since the penalty undertaken by the client is originally a self- undertaken vow, and not penalty charged by the financier, the agreement should reflect this concept. Therefore, the proper wording of the penalty clause would be on the following pattern, The client hereby undertakes that if he defaults in payment of any of his dues under this agreement, he shall pay to the charitable account/fund maintained by the Bank/Financier a sum calculated on the basis of ...% per annum for each day of default unless he establishes through the evidence satisfactory to the Bank/financier that his non-payment at the due date was caused due to poverty or some other factors beyond his control.

4. Being a vow of charitable act, it was originally permissible for the client to give the stipulated amount to any charity of his own choice, but in order to ensure that he will pay, the charitable account or fund maintained by the financier/bank is specified in the proposed undertaking. This specific undertaking does not violate any principle of Shari‘ah. However, it is necessary that the bank or the financial institution maintains a separate fund, or at least, a separate account for this purpose and the amounts credited to that account must be spent in well-defined charities known to the client/debtor.

This proposal has now been implemented successfully in a large number of Islamic financial institutions.

[14] Sahih al-Bukhari, hadith no. 2400, with Fath al-Bari, 5:62.

[15] Many classical jurists do not allow the imposition of fine (بالمال تعزير (even by a court of law; however, some classical jurists, like Imam Ahmad and Abu Yusuf allow it and this is the preferred view according to most contemporary jurists.

[16] Al-Shirazi, al-Muhadh-dhab, 1:370.

[17] Resolution no. 53, Vth Annual Session of the Islamic Fiqh Academy, Jeddah, Journal no. 6, 1:447.

[18] Al-Hattab, Tahrir al-Kalam (Beirut, 1404 AH), 176. and there is nothing in the Holy Qur’an or in the Sunnah of the Holy Prophet صلى الله عليه وسلم which forbids making this ‘vow’ enforceable through the courts of law.

#Murabahah #Penalty of Default #Compensation #Charity

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thesobouquetme · 6 years ago

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