#gonna be posting 2-4 polls per day I think
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What is Esther Most Correct About?: The Tournament
[Image description: a double-sided bracket with 64 spots total, color coded so that each pair of options is the same color. The bracket shows the pairs that are described below. End image description.]
(link to my normal pinned post here)
We all know and love that I am correct about everything (or at least admire the confidence. Or maybe just put up with it. If not that then what are you doing here?), but what am I most correct about?
Round Two (link) (link but chronological):
"twelveriverrose autism4autism4autism stone butchfemme telepathy sex" vs "Jack and Rose had karaoke nights"
"Donna Noble is Jewish" vs "tentooriverrose"
"Rose regularly took naps on the jumpseat in the TARDIS" vs "Jack and Rose had a scrapbook in s1"
"Lots of River fans are wrong about River" vs "River is often wrong about River"
"Bad Wolf as disability" vs "Rose is autistic"
"elevenrose would be Worse than tenrose" vs "Immortal Rose would keep the Doctor's jackets after each regeneration"
"The Doctor and Clara are Pointedly a secret third thing" vs "Rose and Clara are exes"
"Grace should've been a companion instead of Graham" vs "13 should have hung out more"
"River carried pictures of the Doctor specifically because of the audio Signs" vs "River should have actually been giving back the diamond in THORS"
"Mia is short for Stayuexisumigorkefloryan" vs "Pete's World sucks" AND "Pete Tyler sucks"
"Gomez!Master comes after Dhawan!Master in their personal timeline" vs "Rose and Martha would have been besties"
"Jack and Rose should have gotten a more meaningful reunion" vs "Jack created the Bad Wolf computer virus"
"Rose realized she was bisexual before series 2" vs "Rose came out to Mickey in Pete's World"
"The implied pre-Winner Takes All breakup is canon" vs "You do keep turning up. Like a bad wolf." is the best "bad wolf" drop"
"The Doctor is a butch dyke" vs "rosetosh. not sorry."
"It's weird to think Martha still has a grudge after 15 years" vs Heaven Sent
Round One (link) (link but chronological) (Recap of Matches 1-16) (Recap of Matches 17-32) (Bonus Match):
17. "River carried pictures of the Doctor specifically because of the audio Signs" vs "Pottery is one of River's special interests"
1. "twelveriverrose autism4autism4autism stone butchfemme telepathy sex" vs "The Eleventh Doctor is a stone top"
2. "Jack and Rose had karaoke nights" vs "Jack and Rose had movie nights"
3. "Donna Noble is Jewish" vs "The lining of Ten's coat looks like old bowling alley carpet"
4. "tentooriverrose" vs "eleventooriverrose"
5. "Rose regularly took naps on the jumpseat in the TARDIS" vs "Eleventoo survived"
6. "Jack and Rose had a scrapbook in s1" vs "AUs where Turn Left is the same but Rose isn't in the s4 finale"
7. "River has futuristic tattoos" vs "Lots of River fans are wrong about River"
8. "River jumping off of buildings is hot" vs "River is often wrong about River"
9. "Bad Wolf as disability" vs "Rose has telepathy synesthesia"
10. "Rose is autistic" vs "AUs where River is not the Ponds' daughter"
11. "elevenrose would be Worse than tenrose" vs "twelverose would be plenty intimate even without frequent hugs"
12. "tentoorose are Not normal about their relationship" vs "Immortal Rose would keep the Doctor's jackets after each regeneration"
13. "Clara sucks, that's what makes her fun" vs "The Doctor and Clara are Pointedly a secret third thing"
14. "Rose and Clara are exes" vs "s8 is (mostly) good"
15. "Outing Yaz wasn't a #AllyMoment" vs "Grace should've been a companion instead of Graham"
16. "13 should have hung out more" vs "Ace would not flirt with Graham"
18. "The fan audio Exhausted Supplies is canon" vs "River should have actually been giving back the diamond in THORS"
19. "Mia is short for Stayuexisumigorkefloryan" vs "Rose develops major anxiety around cars"
20. "Pete's World sucks" vs "Pete Tyler sucks" (tie)
21. "Sarah Jane vouched for Rose in the Turn Left parallel universe" vs "Gomez!Master comes after Dhawan!Master in their personal timeline"
22. "Rose and Sarah Jane were besties" vs "Rose and Martha would have been besties"
23. "Jack and Rose should have gotten a more meaningful reunion" vs "Jack thinks Rose looks like Billie Piper - no one else really sees it"
24. "Rose blames Jack for every zombie she meets" vs "Jack created the Bad Wolf computer virus"
25. "Rose realized she was bisexual before series 2" vs "Jack says Rose's type is arsonists"
26. "Rose and Mickey made up in Pete's World" vs "Rose came out to Mickey in Pete's World"
27. "The implied pre-Winner Takes All breakup is canon" vs "No Hot Ashes >>>>>>>>"
28. "You do keep turning up. Like a bad wolf." is the best "bad wolf" drop" vs "The Clockwise Man was a better use of clockwork droids than GitF"
29. "The Doctor is a butch dyke" vs "Eleventoo deserves more love"
30. "rosetosh. not sorry." vs "Rose met the Tarot Girl in Pete's World"
31. "It's weird to think Martha still has a grudge after 15 years" vs "Ten's gender 🤝Thirteen's gender"
31. Top Secret Match #32
#tag is gonna be:#kasteraxilkemeryapheshexerindaikyat opinion poll#you are invited to block it if you wish#gonna be posting 2-4 polls per day I think#first round to be posted on 4/2/23 but on the other side of some sleep#synesthesia is spelled wrong in the bracket because every time I think I have it right I'm spelling it wrong in a new way#even though I checked this time.#[weakly] beating the dyslexia allegations#poll#kasteraxilkemeryapheshexerindaikyat.pdf
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Time to catch up on your favorite dashboard simulator :3
#gonna start scheduling these for 1 or 2 per day #i really enjoy making them but I think i'll get burnt out otherwise #also HUGE ty to whoever was the anon who sent me the idea #about having therian cats #ohhh my god #hey anon #(or anyone else but im talkin to u) #feel free to dm me to talk at any point you seem cool
15 notes
🔁 🐍xviper-the-fagx reblogged
🫎 mo0sedude Follow
I PASSED MY ASSESSMENT!!! AAAAAHHH
🪺 robbbinpaw Follow
OMSC CONGRATS MOOSE! I'm so happy for you!!!!
🐍 xviper-the-fagx
WOAAAHHH CONGRATULATIONS MOOOSEE!!! Have you had your name ceremony yet??
#im so happy for ya dude #moving on from apprenticeship </3 #gonna miss you in the 'apprentice things' tag
10 notes
🔁 🏞 trouttail-prefers-bass Follow reblogged
🏞 trouttail-prefers-bass Follow
Daily selfie !!!
Trying on some new berry-based fur dye.
🏞 trouttail-prefers-bass Follow
The amount of cats commenting "you'll never be a she-cat" and "wearing fur dye won't make you female" is astounding. Like. Thanks?? I'm a trans guy not a trans girl...
#lol?? #this is so funny to me #trans
4,703 notes
🥬 rxttencatmint Follow
Ahh.. different type of post than usual, but.. mmrrnn... I'm considering coming out to my mentor. I know he's supportive, but I'm really nervous, so, uh.. I'm gonna leave it up to a Clanblr poll haha..
#trans #transmasc #trans tom #transgender #trans apprentice #advice #poll
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🤍 snwtl Follow
* ,○ ' WELCOME TO MY BLOG ^. o° ;
adult female cat - 49 moons - gender critical
Keep reading
#terfsafe #radfem #adult female cat #terf #riverclan
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🔁 🥬 rxttencatmint reblogged
🍲 ex-thundrclan-kipper Follow
New neighbors have THE most annoying dog I've ever met in my life. Won't shut up about how that's her yard and to get back... nobody wants your yard Jackie, shut uppp...
🌻 l1llyst3m Follow
Since when do you speak dog????
🍲 ex-thundrclan-kipper Follow
I started picking it up when I moved to the twolegplace. I'm still not fluent, but I can hold a conversation with the neighborhood dogs if I want.
#every new thing i learn about kipper #just. wow #he is so coolll... #this is totally not the gender envy and parent issues speaking
2,851 notes
🔁 🌊 missingmyscales reblogged
🦊 foxx--hearted Follow
The worst part about being a fox therian is that even when I am partially accepted, it's usually because cats are telling me how horrible foxes are, and how I should've "picked a different species" because they think that's how it works.
🌊 missingmyscales Follow
Imagine being a fish. In RiverClan.
The closest I ever get to "acceptance" is my friends joking about how I would taste.
🦋 lalala-bluegaze Follow
How does it feel to have to eat the thing your damaged brain thinks you are. Lol
🌊 missingmyscales Follow
Frst off. "Damaged brain" like. Oookay guess we're just being really mean to others on Clanblr today. Second off ,I dont eat fish??? I never even implied that I eat fish.
🦋 lalala-bluegaze Follow
You're from RiverClan lmao. What else is there to eat
🌊 missingmyscales Follow
...
You are joking, right?
Lizards, birds, water voles and shrews, snakes, frogs, toads?? None of those come to mind when you consider the potential diet of a RiverClan warrior??????
🦊 foxx--hearted Follow
@missingmyscales you should probably just block @lalala-bluegaze, her whole blog is about being anti-kittypet, anti-therian, not believing enbies or bisexuals/any other lgbt identity than lesbian or gay or binary trans is valid, and a whole bunch of other stuff. It's not worth talking to her.
🌊 missingmyscales Follow
Ahh thanks... blocked her. I didnt think to check her blog beforehand
#sorry again for arguing on your post, Maple #saw a misconception ab RiverClan and blacked out lol
407 notes
🔁 🏞 trouttail-prefers-bass reblogged
🌾 barncat-vibes Follow
Good morning everyone <3 remember to eat breakfast and stay hydrated!
2,301 notes
🐍 xviper-the-fagx
Ithunk i atw a bug
#it difnr taste good euther :/
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🌱 dirtdigger-23 Follow
So I guess I'm just on this site now?? Clanblr is gone. I can't access any of its posts. But. I can see "Tumblr". Which is weird. The posts are really strange here.
#fakeposting#unreality#fake dash#fake dashboard#dash sim#dash simulator#dashboard simulator#dashboard sim#warriors dashboard sim#warriors dashboard simulator#clanblr#warrior cats
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So, tumblr discourse is already like, infamously ridiculous, right? How much worse do you think it’d get on voxblr?
Source: voxblr.vox #unreality cw #meta post #hellaverse #hazbin hotel #helluva boss
( 6 notes )
🕸️ angie-fluffy-bootz Follow
24 min. ago
time sensitive question how flirt boy
🕸️ angie-fluffy-bootz Follow
2 min. ago
thanks guys
Source: voxblr.vox #the fucking radio demon parody account replied to my post #with extremely UNHELPFUL advice #and charlie #is your advice unisex? #bcuz if thats how you got vaggie #im judging you both
( 697 notes )
⚪️ Anonymous said r u dead?
📻 real-radio-demon Follow
4 hr. ago
Ha! Bold of you to assume I can be killed :)
📻 real-radio-demon Follow
4 hr. ago
Show your face and per’’haps,’,’. I’ll come~.to you
🎀 charlies-angel Follow
32 min. ago
This account is fake. Nobody knows where Alastor is, anon. Stop wasting your time.
#this parody account is in really poor taste
( 14,581 notes )
🕸️ angie-fluffy-bootz Follow
Jul 1
if I make it outta this alive, I’m gonna tell my crush I’m in love with him.
🕸️ angie-fluffy-bootz Follow
Jul 1
fuck
🕸️ angie-fluffy-bootz Follow
1 hr. ago
ya know, I don’t think I’ve confessed to someone and meant it in over a decade?
🕸️ angie-fluffy-bootz Follow
53 min. ago
haha would it be crazy if I said I forgot how?
#its literally part of my job to flirt with people #then i catch feelings and suddenly #i get all tongue-tied #i cant fall back on my old scripts either #he hates bullshit #he wants me #the real me #but the real me doesnt know how to do this!!!
( 268 notes )
💀 be-gay-do-crym Follow
2 hr. ago
apparently people are canceling @.niffty-lady ? wtf?
🌕 m00nlight-h0wling 🌔 Follow
1 hr. ago
they are and it’s actually the stupidest thing i’ve ever seen
#and the bar was really fucking low #considering the amount of dumb chaotic bullshit my dad gets into ↯ #niffty lady
( 22 notes )
👓 creepz0 Follow
3 hr. ago
It’s time to CANCEL @.niffty-lady
Here’s why:
Niffty LITERALLY KILLED a man in cold blood and now PROFITS off of his death
This so-called “lady” is INCREDIBLY rude to fans, ignoring requests leaving fans on read and answering asks with a NASTY attitude. NOT very lady-like if you ask me
Is associated with the VERY PROBLEMATIC @.real-radio-demon (self explanatory)
Writes TOXIC and PROBLEMATIC ships (spidermoth, radiohusk, reylo 🤢)
Writes NSFW when she herself is CHILD-CODED
PROOF is under the cut ⬇️
. Keep reading
#callout post ↯ #niffty lady #anti niffty lady #niffty critical
( 5,101 notes )
📻 real-radio-demon Follow
3 hr. ago
Despite popular belief, I am not dead!
Well, not any deader than I’ve been since 1933! Hahaha!
↯ #is alastor dead? #ha! no ↯ #alastor the radio demon #real radio demon broadcasts
( 147,381 notes )
⚪️ Anonymous said isn’t it disrespectful to write fics about someone you killed irl?
🪡 niffty-lady 📠 Follow
4 hr. ago
I have no respect for Adam. Hope this helps! <3
#answered ask #anon ask
( 136,247 notes )
📺 voxblr4k ☑️ ☑️ ☑️ Follow
5 hr. ago
Is the radio demon dead?
. 96,460 votes • remaining time 6 days, 19 hours
#polls ↯ #alastor the radio demon ↯ #is alastor dead?
( 19,292 notes )
🪡 niffty-lady 📠 Follow
6 hr. ago
🍑 Forbidden Fruit 🍑
Adam x Reader | 10k words | Rated E
⚠️ Major Character Death
Tags: Smut, Whump, Sinner Reader, Forbidden Love, Bad Ending
After a night of reckless passion, you quickly became Archangel Adam’s favorite sin. Your love, as forbidden as the fruit of Eden, was destined to end in tragedy.
https://archiveofoursouls.hell/works/63595697
#niffty lady fic #adam x reader #angel x sinner #sinner reader #smut #whump #forbidden love #bad ending #rpf #aoos link #aoos fanfic
( 49,933 notes )
📻 real-radio-demon Follow
6 hr. ago
Well, it looks like I’ve got some time on my hands!
I’m sure many of you have burning questions you’d like answered
So, ask. me. any’,thing. :)
#ask me anything #ama ↯ #alastor the radio demon #real radio demon broadcasts
( 16,628 notes )
🐍 x-hiss-lord-x ☑️ ☑️ 🦀 👟 Follow
Dec 12, 2019
i can't have beef with the power of friendship trope because if someone wanted to hang out with me i'd probably reconsider my stance on turning the city into the 10th circle of hell
🐍 x-hiss-lord-x ☑️ ☑️ 🦀 👟 Follow
Dec 12, 2019
besides i can always just redirect my dark urges towards being violently protective of my new friends. there's no rule that says you can't do that.
🌈 hells-disney-princess Follow
7 hr. ago
I found Sir Pentious’s old voxblr blog, and I think I’m gonna cry
🌈 hells-disney-princess Follow
7 hr. ago
He made the ultimate sacrifice to protect his friends and the hotel during the extermination. He did exactly what he said he would in this post.
I wish I could thank him for everything he did for us. And I wish I could’ve done a better job of protecting him.
I don’t know where Souls go when they get erased; I don’t know if they go anywhere at all. But I hope that wherever Sir Pentious is now, he’s with people that he considers his friends.
Source: voxblr.vox #rip Sir Pentious #we miss you 😢
( 348 notes )
📻 real-radio-demon Follow
8 hr. ago
↯ #alastor the radio demon #real radio demon broadcasts #the ink spots #we’ll meet again #Voxify
( 4,102 notes )
⬜️ voxblrverse-meta Follow
9 hr. ago
Fanby’s Fake Dash Masterpost
#unreality cw#fake tumblr dash#fanby’s fuckery#hazbin hotel#helluva boss#huskerdust#angel dust#niffty#alastor#vox hazbin hotel#cherri bomb hazbin hotel#charlie morningstar#vaggie#crymini#loona helluva boss#creepzo#sir pentious#id in alt text#discourse cw#it’s fake discourse but#tagging just in case#suggestive#Spotify
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Revealed – The Next Big Altcoins & Airdrops!!
Let’s talk about tokens today. The Altcoins because if we are getting near the end of the bear trap I predicted we currently are in those alts are going to run. Like, run forest run because after the bear trap is mania phase, or my term for it, the last hoorah. So you maniacs can you give me a hoorah? Because it’s time for Chico Crypto! Yesterday it seemed a touch of mania was already beginning! Coinbase late to the party, decided to finally do it and list Dogecoin to Coinbase Pro. And the Coinbase listing effect still had its power.
Checking out the Dogecoin price chart, some explosive moves, which have shot it up by over 51 percent since its Saturday lows. Which got ole Elon tweeting again. In response to Coinbase Pro listing it, he posted (dot dot dot) and a retweet of the meme of the doge storm standard, taking over the global financial system and him saying it’s inevitable.
So, there is a play with Doge still to this day. Just 2 weeks ago, on May 20th Elon tweeted this. How much is that Doge in the Window? With a picture of what looks to be a 1 dollar dogebill, on a laptop, in front of a neon Cyberviking sign. Aka Elon wants to see Doge to a buckeroo as it didn’t hit it when everyone thought it would with his SNL appearance So, what could be coming that would push it to that Dollar mark? Well, remember when Elon tweeted that Tesla was no longer accepting Bitcoin for payments? He also said they were looking at other cryptos that use less than 1 percent of BTCs energy per transaction.
Well, dogecoin fits that bill! It only takes .12 kilowatt-hours consumed per doge transaction, while BTC takes 707-kilowatt hours. That is less than 1 percent. And then there was this, just 3 weeks ago. Elon put out a poll for the public. Asking the Twitterverse if they want Tesla to accept Dogecoin.
Which got a nearly 80 percent YES with almost 4 million votes. In my opinion, it’s pretty obvious a Tesla announcement of Dogecoin for payment is coming and probably coming this Summer. Within the next month or two. And that hype, combined with a rebound in the markets should see Dogecoin relook towards that dollar mark.
Now, moving down the market cap rankings to the most popular and dominant DEX in the space. Uniswap!! We are closing in on the 1 monthly anniversary of the v3 launch of their exchange so it’s time to talk about LP, liquidity pool positions, and how to make it easier on yourself to add liquidity to the exchange.
Uniswap v2 made adding liquidity to trading pools simple..you just selected the pair you want, put equal value amounts of each in, and supplied and confirmed the transaction, receiving an LP token. It was automated for you. You didn’t have to change or set anything.
I’m sure some of you have seen today, what v3 is like there are things you have to set, like the fee, which isn’t too bad but also the one that confuses everybody the price ranges! A minimum and maximum price to create the range. Then going to Uniswap v3 liquidity documentation the team says If the price moves outside of the LP’s specified range, their position will be concentrated in one of the two assets and not earn trading fees until the price returns to their range.
Yeah, you have to keep a close eye on your LP positions, and the price, as if it moves out of your set ranges, you don’t earn fees. You have to be active which the team says in that documentation When making a price range decision, LPs should consider the extent to which they think prices will move over the course of their position’s lifetime and their willingness to actively manage their positions (and all the costs associated with more active management). So for those who don’t know what they are doing or don’t have the time to be so active.
How do you provide Liquidity to Uniswap easily?? Well, there is the Sommelier Finance pairing app!! Going to that it says it the easiest way to add liquidity to Uniswap v3. Heck yeah, Chico likes And it is pretty dang easy. You just search for the v3 pair you want to add liquidity to and click on it. We are doing Link and WrappedETH.
Select the pair you want, altcoin and eth or wrapped eth, and the amount of each. Once that is filled in, you select your sentiment for ETH, are you neutral.. you think Link vs ETH is gonna hodl the same. Are you bearish on ETH vs LINK, or are you bullish on ETH vs LINK? It changes the price ranges for you based on this.
You then set your gas price, and click add liquidity. Much, much, much more simple than setting the ranges yourself within the v3s liquidity interface. So I’m sure you are asking yourself a token?? For Sommelier? Not yet, they put out their product first, and plan to launch the token later.
SOMM It’s coming just no official date yet! Definitely, one to keep an eye on though. But speaking of Uniswap LP positions, and automating that leads us right into a sponsored segment of this content, supported by the team over at Peanut, and like always the full details of our agreement are down in the description Jumping right to their website found at peanut. trade, a link for that is down below in the description, we can see what their main selling point is.
They are a DeFi Price Balancer for DEX users to reduce slippage and impermanent loss & the main product is the liquidity balancer. Jumping to that’s landing page, they describe it as putting your liquidity on autopilot and maximizing LP profits.
Very nice they continue. Peanut is the first-ever automated liquidity balancer for Uniswap v3 that concentrates liquidity price range based on real-time market conditions. Basically, this means Peanut will take the complexity out of the price ranges with v3.
They will automatically adjust and move them to the most capital-efficient and profitable ones. Keeping you earning the most fees. instead of those who do it manually, falling out of profitable ranges and the stats are looking good from their initial research. Providing more fees per dollar than just Uniswap v3 alone & manual adjustments.
Besides, automatic adjustments Peanut has something in the works with Curve, they partnered together & Michael Egorov, CEO of curve said this about the peanut solution: The presence of slippage is a huge inconvenience, and can sometimes carry significant risks for DEXs. Peanut provides a great solution to this problem. By using only 10% of user funds in a centralized manner (cross-exchange arbitrage), Peanut manages to achieve significantly higher efficiency of the mechanics and returns for users.
Although ack at their website you can see it’s a waitlist to join, which makes sense, as Uniswap v3 just launched less than a month ago. I’m sure it’s close to being ready so get signed up so you don’t miss the initial launch! But, also releasing soon, to work alongside their v3 product, is another piece of their DeFi puzzle. Peanut FeeNo. Feeno is an SDK that can be integrated into blockchain apps like crypto wallets, DEXs, lending protocols to enable ETH-free transactions and swaps, provide 100% front-run protection, and even can offer a cashback to the app users. Also with Feeno, you don’t need ETH at all, no matter which ERC-20 tokens you send or swap. Yes, others projects and apps can and will use FeeNo to help their own users. One of the first use cases, for FeeNo, will be Peanut’s own products, like the v3 liquidity balancer but since it’s an SDK, others can easily plug it in and use it too.
So if any of this fits your crypto fancy, links for the peanut are below! Now I want to finish this episode off with a bit of crypto alpha leak including an airdrop you might be eligible to claim! So let’s begin with the airdrop this is from Ribbon Finance, and at their website, they say they are a sustainable alpha for everyone, earning yield on crypto assets through DeFis first structured products protocol.
And they have one product out, the yield with 3 other structured products coming soon. And then scroll down to the investors it’s an alpha list.DragonFly, Coinbase, Joe Lubin, and even Kain Warwick So how do you get the airdrop? Well, you have to go to their app found at the app, ribbon, finance, and then in the top right corner, click red RBN, connect a wallet & see if you have any! Who is eligible? A total of 4M RBN was distributed between users of existing options protocols on Ethereum: Hegic, Opyn, Charm, and Primitive.
We talked about Hegic we talked about Opyn you may be eligible! Although if you are, the tokens aren’t transferable yet! So do you want to talk about a token that is trading!? One that I have been waiting to hit the scene for a very long time? Well, Centrifuge’s governance token CFG is finally on Coingecko & its first exchange! And Centrifuge is pushing forward with some BIG news 2 weeks ago, they announced Altair, their Kusama parachain.
And scrolling down to the genesis token distribution you can see 61 percent of AIR tokens, for the parachiain are airdropped to CFG holders. 1 CFG gets you 1 AIR.and with the parachain auctions on Kusama right around the corner this snapshot airdrop is becoming more likely to happen by the day. Chico likes. Cheers Ill see you next time!.
via Revealed – The Next Big Altcoins & Airdrops!!
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Five times Olivia Pope was definitely, totally not jealous, like at all… and the One time that maybe she was...
*AN: This kind of ignores season 7 because I started it before it aired.
1. Here she was, trying to invite Jake to have dinner with her father, something normal people who were- well, she doesn’t exactly know if they’re dating now- but it doesn’t matter, she was trying to do something normal.
But Olivia Pope and Jake Ballard are not normal.
And Olivia Pope was not jealous.
She wasn’t!
It’s just she liked having Jake around, never mind the things they did together, but something had definitely changed between the two of them after going to the island, so the second the question came out of her mouth “Do you have a woman in there?”, she immediately regretted it. Jake proceeded to read her in a way no one else does, reminding her of the man living in 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue whose life she had gotten entangled with and slammed the door in her face.
She wasn’t sure what she would’ve done if Jake had said “Yes, I am with another woman right now”, but it doesn’t matter because they are not dating and Jake’s right, she’s in love with Fitz and for those split seconds Olivia Pope was definitely, totally not jealous… right?
2. “How do you know her?” She was digging, she knew, but after a crazy few days, Olivia really needed for the focus not to be on her, just for a few minutes.
“She’s my wife.” She wasn’t expecting that. Wife? Was he serious? How much did she know? Is this someone from his B613 days? Was she an agent? Another mark like Olivia once was? Even after everything they had been through, right when she thinks nothing he can say can surprise her, he pulls something like this. Of course, she wasn’t jealous; she was just surprised.
Olivia wasn’t sure what hurt more. The fact that he was married or the fact that he didn’t tell her. Deep down, she knew that a part of her would always care for Jake. She had to resist the urge to ask a million questions, and settled on a sarcastic comment and turning her focus to her Gettysburger. It wasn’t until later when he mentioned in passing how he had been planning on leaving with Elise that she realized how, despite the fact that she was about to get married at the same exact time, she wasn’t ready for him to leave her.
However, sitting at that conference table, surrounded by newspapers and magazines digging up all her dirty secrets, just hours after going on national TV and doing an interview on how much she loved Fitz, she couldn’t be jealous.
She shouldn’t be jealous.
But she was very curious.
3. “You’re seeing someone.” Ok, maybe it wasn’t the normal pillow talk, and she’d probably enjoy going another round with him more, but her father’s words were ringing in her head, and Jake didn’t even bother to tell her directly and that pissed her off.
“He told you. I was sure he wouldn’t. I can never figure him out. You think he’s gonna go one way but then he turns around goes the exact opposite-” Jake stated with a sigh. Olivia wasn’t sure if he was serious or not. That’s what he’s worried about? That he got together with my father and shared how the butterflies felt after his first date with some woman and now her father was spilling his secrets?
Still, curiosity and suspicion got the best of her, “Who is she?” Olivia questioned, trying (but failing) to be nonchalant. It didn’t really matter. It was someone else. Someone who’s not her. It doesn’t matter that what they have now was working. Yes, still undefined, but working.
Jake was quick to reply, “Does it matter? Do you care?”
“No.” Olivia replied shortly. “Are you gonna tell me who she is?”
Jake turned to her, raised his eyebrow and proclaimed, “You sound like you care.”
She was only asking because she was worried about STDs. And the fact that their dating history wasn’t the best and the last “outsider” she tried to date, stabbed Jake 27 times, so this time Olivia was trying to make sure she’s not the one getting stabbed. “I sound practical. You’re dating now. You want to run around with a bunch of women. Fine. Play. Have an orgy.” You know what, it doesn’t even matter. Jake is an adult and if he wants to sleep around with all of D.C. then he can.
She wouldn’t tell him that she was worried about what this meant for the both of them or remind him that people like them can’t expect to have a normal relationship. She just kept her mouth shut and pretended like she wasn’t totally, completely jealous.
4. All those magazines, all those times she and Abby got drunk with their girlfriends in law school and cursed those boys who unceremoniously dumped them, every single one of them specifically said not to go through the guy’s social media after a break-up.
Unfollow, block, report them, whatever.
And Olivia listened.
After the wedding from hell, the last thing she wanted to do was see the “happy couple”, but it wasn’t her fault that J-Mo had their 12 page Vogue spread and the trashy gossip magazines didn’t stop caring about them, like Olivia tried to, after the wedding.
She knew she didn’t have a choice; she would never gamble with Jake’s life, but that doesn’t mean she was happy with what she did and said at the church. For now, and possibly the rest of her life, her plan was to ignore the fact that she was so close to being happy that she could taste it, block Jake out of her mind, and avoid him at all costs, in real life and otherwise.
But it seems like God, or just BNC, had different plans for her.
She was watching the news to see the reports on Mellie’s speech at the Emily’s List Dinner, when suddenly her TV screen was covered by the smiling couple by- is that water? By the beach? Really? Olivia knew that a person can’t own an entire environment, and it wasn’t like she expected him to never go to the beach again without her, but wouldn’t Vanessa like the mountains or camping or traveling through Europe better?
The picture was posted for Vanessa’s 300,000 followers- well, actually 299,999 since Quinn unfollowed her after the wedding (#team Olivia, of course)-but it made 1 person specifically fill up with a weird, burning feeling in her heart.
And as Olivia stared at the screen and tuned out the reporter, all she could think about now was an island which felt a million miles away, and memories that came back to her in her dreams, and she definitely, totally, didn’t feel jealous.
But maybe she did feel like getting under the covers and crying for a million years.
5. Olivia was already frustrated looking at the poll numbers. They weren’t bad, per say, but weren’t were she wanted them to be.
And now they were canoodling.
And it was annoying.
Not because she cared, no, of course not.
Olivia was too focused on the campaign and the new poll numbers that were coming out of Ohio. Coming out of Defiance, Ohio, and Cleveland and Cincinnati, of course, but specifically those numbers next to “Defiance-” reminded why she was doing this, to herself, to Jake.
There were moments, moments she didn’t tell Mellie or Quinn or anyone about, when they drove past a little league team practicing while going through some small town when she thought “What if?”
But then she remembered what the past 8 years have been and recognized that the only way she would feel normal, sitting with those moms cheering their kids on, would probably be if she could go back in time 20 years and stop her mother from leaving for the airport.
She wanted a life with Jake, and maybe if the timing had been different, they would’ve moved past this fight, but they were both stubborn so the only interactions between the two of them for the past month had been Olivia telling Jake to be more open when meeting the voters or in interviews and Jake rolling his eyes and responding with a sharp (and very annoying) “Ok, boss”.
Looking at Jake and Vanessa flirting like teenagers in high school, just made her more irritated. But it wasn’t because she was jealous. Right?
1. One year into Mellie’s term
“Jake, you’ve got to help me. I’m… I don’t know… Hurry”
“I’m on my way,” and true to his word Jake rushed out and sped through traffic, probably running a couple red lights. He got to her apartment and didn’t even bother waiting for the elevator. The way she sounded on the phone, the only thing on his mind was Olivia was in danger, assuming that she wouldn’t call him to her apartment if it was a matter of national security, and ran up 12 flights of stairs instead. He banged on the door and in an instant, a panicking Olivia yanked it open. “Oh, thank God, what took you so long?”
Jake quickly took account for Olivia’s surroundings and well, Olivia, but after noticing nothing out of the ordinary he asked, “What happ-” and then he heard it.
He was actually more surprised he didn’t hear it earlier. A wailing noise coming from the other room. Coming for the newest addition to their crazy little “family”. Charlie and Quinn wanted to go out for a date night and Olivia, determined to step up in her role as godmother, offered to take care of little Amelia. Olivia figured the baby would already be half asleep by the time Quinn came to drop her off and all she would have to do would give her a bottle that Quinn already filled, make some funny faces, change a diaper or two, and then let her sleep. Then she could retire to her bed with a glass of red wine and the unemployment numbers from the latest quarter.
It was all going to plan; Amelia had her dinner and Olivia played with her and (successfully!) changed her diaper, but when it came time for her to go to sleep Amelia started crying and wouldn’t stop. Olivia explained all of this as Jake made his way to the baby. “I didn’t want to interrupt Charlie and Quinn and you were the first person I thought of and I didn’t know what to do and I kind of panicked,” she rushed out. And it was like magic, Jake brought the baby close to his chest and instantly-
Silence.
“Wha-How did- This isn’t fair!” All Jake had to do was pick up Amelia and walk back and forth around Olivia’s living room and suddenly little Amy was back to being an angel.
“I don’t know, I think she likes her Uncle Jake better,” Jake stated with a smirk coming to his face. Olivia rolled her eyes but a soft smile came to her face. The thought came to mind- this was nice; when Amelia wasn’t crying her eyes out, babysitting her was nice. At least it was better than babysitting the CEOs, politicians, and world leaders that Olivia has dealt with for the past 9 years.
Once Jake put the sleeping baby down in the bassinet Quinn brought, Olivia decided that she wasn’t quite ready for him to leave yet. Olivia brought out a bowl of popcorn, 2 glasses of wine, and invited him to stay to watch reruns.
Because Amelia could wake up, of course.
And yet, 2 hours later, with a soft knock on the door, Quinn and Charlie walked in to see, not only one sleeping baby of theirs, but also two more slightly stubborn, a little oblivious, a little dangerous, but still very much in love individuals entangled on the couch with an old movie from the 70s playing on TV in the background. Quinn softly cleared her throat and both individuals suddenly arose, a blush creeping on both of their faces, despite, or maybe because of, their complicated history. They had fallen back into old habits and had somehow gravitated towards each other while sleeping and any semblance of polite personal space disappeared. Something so innocent, yet so meaningful.
“Hey, how was she?” Quinn whispered.
“She was great. There was a small incident when she wouldn’t stop crying, so I had to call Jake,” Olivia replied.
“Oh well, he is her favorite,” Quinn said looking between Jake and Olivia with a knowing smile. Charlie made eye contact with Jake and wiggled his eyebrows. Jake simply rolled his eyes and turned to Olivia, grinning, “Haha, see! You jealous?”
Olivia looked right at Jake’s eyes and slowly smiled because as Charlie and Quinn picked up Amelia’s things, she knew that her heart was full. A kind of full that it gets when every time she sees the empire she has built. A kind of full that it gets when she gets to spend time with the family she might not have been born into, but the family she chose. A kind of full that it gets when she’s with the man beside her, as a friend or lover, who has been so unwavering, so constant in her life.
“Hmm…maybe a little.”
#scandal abc#olake#availed#olivia pope#jake ballard#olake fanfic#idk what this is i posted it on ff earlier#but im kinda proud of it#anyways let me know what u think#mine#fic
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LOT Chat Recap
So the chat went very well! I have grouped the subjects into thematic categories for everyone's ease.
A few up-front things for everyone:
Scheduling
Everyone will have two more weeks to revise their drafts or send in comments. Writers, please send me the edits you want me to make to your episode outline, which will be posted to the outline doc; you can also start drafting your final episode. If writers have any further questions about your episode, send in submissions or asks and they can be discussed by the group on this page; I am also always available to talk by messenger. Readers, please send in your comments and questions on episodes. I will be posting "let's talk about these three episodes" posts every day for the next week so that people can submit specific comments about those episodes if they have any additional comments to make.
We will have another chat on Saturday June 24 at 1PM EST (unless people prefer a different time)
Fully written episodes will then be due on Friday, July 28. We will then have two weeks of editing and proof-reading, with the goal of posting the complete season to Ao3 by August 15.
Format
As people are welcome to start drafting their episodes ASAP, we need to decide on format. I will post a separate post in regards to this question with a poll.
Recap
Queen B
We're using the "Queen of Bialya with mind control powers" version, with an amulet instead of "pheromones" because it corresponds with Amaya's symbolism-wise; Queen B is from 2016
Motive: she's sensitive about the fact that she's illegitimately in power, which is why she isn't in Bialya
Legends could use in the Roman Republic episode where she's pretending to be a Queen; that’s why she has a feud with Mari, who has been helping undermine her power base by helping prove that she's not legit; she wants the spear so she's legitimately the queen of Bialya, which is why she joins the Legion (also because messing with Amaya will interfere with Mari)
Femme fatale style villain, which would make the scene in episode 16 where instead of seducing/convincing/mind controlling the guard, she just punches him, SO MUCH FUNNIER (like she saunters up, you think she's gonna use her powers, she smiles all seductive - and WHAM)
We need to pump up her role in the various episodes - she can take Merlyn's place as the "person who snarks with Darkh"
Amaya
Needs more development of her plot where she’s thinking about her future and trying to think of whether she should change it or not
Episode 10: Amaya and Queen B fight - Queen B hints at things, building up Amaya’s curiosity
Episode 13: Queen B has more revelations for Amaya, telling actual facts
Amaya is thinking about changing: the destruction of her village and the fact that Mari grows up in the foster care system
That means we can have her start to angst about changing things in the Tudor episode (14) and New York (15); maybe a scene in 14 where she does research about her future secretly and then in 15 more debate about changing it, with the events of 15 inspiring her not to change it
that way we have a 5-part arc for Amaya about it
and her later confrontations with Queen B in 18 and in Doomworld work stronger because of it because Queen B’s taunts don’t work as well any more
Compass
They pick it up in Episode 8 from Constantine in return for helping with the Crusade; Lily gets brought in to use her micro-tech knowledge to amp it up but really because Stein wants her around, but otherwise I think we can limit the references to it to "so Gideon says the compass goes to Y time period" – but it should be referenced consistently after Episode 8
Lily first appears in Episode 7 just like in canon, possible reference to present day Clarissa
Lily first gets picked up in episode 15, and ends up having her fight with Stein about him hiding her aberration status in episode 15 so that 16 starts with them still fighting; she can just be brought in as an "expert" in technology to help calibrate the compass, not because she’s an aberration – Rip can reveal it to her because he’s a Time Master and objects
Relationship with Stein: he’s still a workaholic, tries to over-interfere with her academics, distant but proud of her accomplishments and they bonded over their intelligence, he’s a good mentor figure; she’s pissed off that he didn't tell her about the aberration thing - it makes her feel like he didn't trust her, and she presumably had to fight HARD to get to a position of academic achievement where she felt he respected her instead of humoring her because she's his beloved daughter; a case of "daddy knows best" when it comes to the aberration issues. And she can be like "this is just like when you came to my dissertation defense!" It also explains why she forgives him in episode 16: she's kind of used to him being a bit of an oblivious tactless dumbass
Oculus – Spear
The Oculus' destruction and the scattering of the spear pieces are somehow connected – they were using the spear to power the Oculus; when it exploded, they scattered
as a Time Master, Rip knows where to find them – the piece he finds in the time loop with the 81 people is one of the pieces from the Oculus; the pieces want to get back together and are powered up by one of them being used
they don’t whisper and cannot be used to guide to each other – they don’t work by “wishes” per se, they just allow people to make changes to the timeline (good luck in succeeding in changing history to your will); only the spear together can you “wish” a new world into existence
The spear pieces weren’t “always there” – they were scattered there
Re-work the pilot so that the piece Rip gets is from the Oculus and maybe we can scatter the information that they had been powering the Oculus with the spear into episode 4 (Eo's explanation) and episode 8 (Constantine can do a bit of an info dump, he's a magical character)
Len
Len ends up just hovering in the background in a lot of the episodes and he never seems to get any lines that talk about his bitterness/resentment, so we need to use him more.
He is connected to the Oculus and that's why putting the spear back together = we see him more
Len’s appearance guide:
First few episodes, we have ONLY "visuals" of Len, just momentary glimpses, through episode 5, but nothing more - no comments, just blink-and-he's-gone.
Episode 3 is our first appearance of blink-and-miss-him - thematically appropriate since we're also bringing in Amaya
More blink-and-miss appearance in the next two episodes
We have the "funeral" episode as the turning point between “blink and gone” and “talking” next episode
Then in episode 6 we have our first appear-and-talk Len, the big moment where Mick is taken aback and is surprise (like in canon, where Mick has to give a gruff "You're not real"). But at that point, he's still only showing up briefly.
Len starts showing up more as the episodes go by; episode 6 through 10 we have him saying things TO Mick and Mick trying (and failing) to ignore him
Episode 10 being the episode where he's talking enough with Mick that the others notice
Episode 11 they test Mick for hallucinations, but Len's still there
Episode 12 Len doesn't do much, but the audience finds out he's real
Then from episode 13 to 16, Len should really be written as a full member of the cast just one that no one else can hear but Mick.
In Episode 14 L!Len steals the piece while O!Len is around, which is when O!Len realizes for the first time that Legion!Len is around; we could have a scene with O!Len asking Gideon "WTF was that"
NOTE: once Len is a full cast member, he can have scenes by himself, he doesn't always have to be tied to Mick or to another cast member, but before that, when he's just a hallucination, he shouldn't appear solo
Episode 16, he argues with Mick and leaves to go with the Legion!Len, who he discovers can also see him
Episode 17 is the episode where he helps Legion!Len fight the Legion
Episode 18 O!Len comes back and re-joins Mick's side, but isn't able to convince him not to go with Legion!Len in episode 19
Episode 20, Mick discovers Len is real
Episode 22, everyone else does and Len gets resurrected
Bambi
Decision made that Bambi survives; Pan will fix the details
Because Bambi survive in episode 2, there will be a line in the very end of the finale, when they crash land in LA and there are dinos there, just as the scene is fading to black we get a Ray voice-over going "wait...Bambi?!"
because that would be A, hilarious and B, a good tie-in to show that time is broken and they didn't land in a different part of the multiverse
Pencil
It's a convenient device that Nate would have around that the audience won't immediately go "ah-ha! mysterious item gets mentioned! will be important!"; him waving around the pencil in the pilot is a nice, easy way to bring it into the audience's view - but not emphasize it
It's his "lucky" pencil that he only uses for important exams; think of the kid who has a pencil box where he lovingly keeps that ONE PENCIL that he passed a test with and he uses it ONLY for tests
Nate inadvertently creates his own closed time loop: the spear is scattered through time and appears in Nate’s possession, which he thinks is a gift from his grandfather – it immunizes him from the changes in time (Nate tells his grandfather "you gave me your lucky pencil"; his grandfather who does not' have a lucky pencil gets weird about it then grabs a random pencil from the mission ( the spear piece) and gives that to young!Nate thereby completing the circle)
The JSA is there on a legitimate mission that is being messed up by the spear piece being there but since they're IN the time period, they don't realizes it's being messed with; the Legends, however, realize something is wrong and figure out that those weird glowing sticks might be involved and go looking but also try to help fix the original mission, which they mess up and show how unprofessional they are; however, in the end, they manage to help the JSA complete their mission and in the process, Henry grabs the spear piece he doesn't know it's a spear piece because the legends never shared that info
He takes the pencil because Nate told him he gave him his lucky pencil and Henry didn't have one but he doesn't want to disappoint his grandson so he picks one up going "this is a good memento of a really weird mission" and the Legends realize that that's how Nate got the spear piece in the first place it plays on the nature of time travel
the pencil is a closed time loop - it's a really nice way to play with time travel without being too cliche - it's the "being your own grandfather" trope but funny
the fact that we have two "time loops" in the early episodes - but not really in the later ones - could be a symptom of the timeline freeing itself from the "set" history of the Time Masters
which would be really cool thematically, with the Legends being set up by their various experiences in season 2 to actually start /deliberately changing history/ in season 3
Nate
Nate's hemophilia resolved with Gideon just saving his life, but doesn't fix his hemophilia
would be really funny to have Nate cameo in Doomworld by literally doing the same thing he does in the pilot - breaking into the mayor's office and babbling about history something. except this time it's Darkh; but then darhk would kill him, but it'd be undone by the end of Doomworld
Ray breaking his suit
The full sequence is episode 6 (damage) episode 7 (overshadowed by Invasion) episode 8 (breaks) episode 9 (unsuccessful repair; acknowledge that he won’t be able to use it) episode 10 (can't use it all; trying new personas).
Because it's his screwing up in episode 6 that causes it, but it doesn't fully break it. and he's not a big player using his suit in Invasion, which we're mostly leaving alone
In Episode 9, he’s trying to put the suit back together but has only gotten parts of it to work; he shrinks due to an error and is worried he won’t be able to get big again – should have a moment at the end of the episode where Ray acknowledges he won’t fix it any time soon and realizing he needs to try to be a hero in a different way to set up the episode 10 montage
Ray montage
in terms of visuals, the scene should probably focus on Ray in the center, with whoever commenting doing so from off-screen
Ray tries to give himself powers; "I'm going to Captain America myself" "Remember how that went for Bruce Banner?" - a good way to point out that the Marvel universe are comics in DC
dress him in the GL outfit and he's explaining to someone that "so it'll be based around this ring -" "won't work"
dress him as the Blue Beetle for a second before he goes "naaaaah"
booster gold and Gideon advises against
We should have him in a superman costume at one point but with no "s" and he's saying "I dunno, maybe if something went in the middle?" (that is also a Powergirl reference - the superman outfit but the "s" was a chest-window or the "atom" LOT symbol, and then you have someone (Jax?) off-screen going "no, man, no")
possibly one piece outfit, Naruto outfit - Mick offscreen just goes "NO, haircut"
Vikings
Jax says Stein is his dad, possibly a mentor instead? Or a specific reference to multi-cultural Vikings
the changing vs. preserving history argument
They are split up as sara, ray, amaya for preserve and mick, jax, stein for change, but by the end of episode 13, it ends up as mick, jax, stein, amaya vs. sara, ray, rip once rip's brainwashing is removed and amaya hears about her future from queen b
Cameos
Jason Blood in the background for a few episodes
I think the references to Poison Ivy not returning their calls and then having a discussion of Poison Ivy in Doomworld worked really well using Kendra three times was also really great
the Lanterns should also be foreshadowed more, if they're going to appear (one reference to the Lanterns in our rewritten Invasion, so if we have maybe one more somewhere, it'd be enough)
References to the other rogues: both in the future and mick, len, and lisa talking about them
Need to fill in reference in filler episode (Selina Kyle? Someone else?)
Trauma
Should have some scenes dealing with the trauma Ray went through while surviving in the cretaceous period and dealing with the effects Rip's brainwashing had - both characters would try to deny it, powering through until they break (Ray when his suit breaks for good in episode 10 - he mentions that he feels empty without his suit and all alone like he did in the Cretaceous period)
Rip and Mick should definitely have a moment to discuss brainwashing, if possible
Ray's suit is some symbolism for his psychological journey
Episode 3
Possible move to D Day or using the 1942 occupation of the south of France because of the Allied invasion of Morocco
Episode 10
Stein goes undercover as a Brit as well, and that's how they find out that the Legion are influencing the Brits; That way he gets stuck on the British ship and can't form Firestorm until the climatic battle moment
episode 8
Zatanna and Madame Xanadu should appear briefly in the beginning (wild goose chase montage when they’re trying to hire someone other than Constantine)
The organization should be 1, Rip being chased; 2, intro sequence; 3, Constantine sequence with Zed getting the vision; 4, they go after Rip and I think 4, the feudal Japan sequence, should be longer, with more chasing and action sequences, as well as a scene where the Legends lose Rip to the Legion because Ray’s suit breaks and where Rip thinks Eobard is friendly before realizing he’s not;
needs a scene where the Legends return to Constantine and he offers them the compass in exchange for help with the Crusade, THEN intersperse the Rip interrogation with the Legends defeating the Crusade
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Laying the Smacketh Down – Observations from Sixers 149, Timberwolves 107
Fans viciously booed Jerryd Bayless as Corey Brewer and Amir Johnson swung the ball around on the other end of the floor with the Sixers up 40. It’s not exactly how I pictured the Robert Covington and Dario Saric return game playing out.
Yet play out in that way it did, as Yoda would say. The Sixers were clubbing the Timberwolves so badly that fans needed something to entertain themselves, and booing Bayless was the entertainment.
149 is the most points scored by the Sixers at the Wells Fargo Center, ever. Sixers PR dug up the statistic and found that you’d have to go all the way back to 1990 to find the last time the team scored 149 in a game. Charles Barkley had 38 and 13 in a March 30th win against the Nuggets.
Also worth mentioning is that last night’s 21 made three-pointers ended up being a franchise record while 40 assists and a 59.8 field goal percentage were both season highs.
So yeah, they played pretty well, and it’s a great way to enter the toughest stretch of their schedule, a hellish murderer’s row of 11 playoff teams over the next 12 games. We’re gonna see if this team really has it or not, since the cupcake portion of the schedule is mercifully over.
Mixing and matching
The only new or interesting wrinkle from last night was a bit of a tweak in Brett Brown’s rotation. We saw Jimmy Butler and Joel Embiid on the floor together while Ben Simmons and JJ Redick were on the bench.
That’s happened rarely this season. Brett typically prefers to play Simmons and Butler in lineups together while Embiid sits. Last night some of that re-jiggering resulted in different looks that included Wilson Chandler at small forward, where he played a large portion of his minutes with the Nuggets and Knicks.
Brown:
We are at a stage where we need to find some level of being solid and some level of experiment. And I think that to pair Joel and to pair Jimmy is always been of interest, trying to break up a little bit the Joel and JJ thing and to move Wilson to a wing has always been of interest. And so in this middle third to try things, as things become a little bit up in the air, especially the last few games, we decided to just move full forward with that.
…
You see Wilson at a three and Jonah at a five and pairing Joel and Jimmy. Because I think when you look down deep, on my mind is always ‘what’s coming?’ What’s coming? It’s playoff basketball. Those two guys will be featured a lot. Last year it was Joel and JJ a lot and it will still happen. But at the end of the day I really think that those two, Joel Embiid and Jimmy Butler, will be featured in more prominent ways, maybe than any pairing.
Right. Good answer. Playoff basketball is star driven, half court basketball.
Here are a couple of offensive possessions from those Jimmy/Joel late 2nd quarter minutes, a lineup that also featured T.J. McConnell at point, Landry Shamet at shooting guard, and Mike Muscala at power forward:
Clip 1, they run Jimmy through some staggered screens, that sort of pseudo-Allen Iverson cut. There’s defensive confusion from Minnesota, resulting in a mismatch Joel, who tries an elbow jumper over Dario Saric.
Same thing in clip 2, except Butler gets the ball and hits a really tough turnaround jumper. Those Iverson cuts, which are more or less flares to the opposite wing, are a good way to get Jimmy some iso looks, though Joel is then sort of standing out on the perimeter.
Then in clip 3 it’s just Butler/Embiid two-man game, with Jimmy taking a rare catch and shoot three-pointer off a dribble hand-off.
That’s all good stuff. Experiment now. Figure it out. Mix and match. Of course they need to compile wins, so you don’t want to stray too far from your base, but Brett Brown’s goal in the next three months is to get his stars working together as smoothly as possible, and when you can do some of that tinkering during an easy win, it’s the most ideal situation you can find yourself in.
For what it’s worth, the Sixers current starting lineup is a +69 in 232 minutes on the floor together with a 112.7 offensive rating and 98.6 defensive rating. That’s a +14.1 net. For all of the talk about the base motion and team chemistry and whatever, that unit is performing extremely well on the offensive end of the floor. And for comparison, the five-man group of Redick, Embiid, Simmons, Saric, and Covington played 106 minutes this season while putting up a -0.4 net rating. Swap in Markelle Fultz for Redick and it’s a -1.4 net rating over 65 total minutes. So it’s just more confirmation that yes, the Sixers are better with Butler, but they’re also top-heavy with little depth beyond the starting five.
When you break it down into two-man groupings, Butler has spent 726 minutes on the floor with Ben Simmons but only 469 minutes with Joel Embiid. Both lineups have a +4.6 net rating. I think the reason for the disparity there is that Brett Brown, #1, likes to stagger Embiid and Simmons so that one of those guys is always on the court, but, #2, separating Jimmy and Joel outside of the starting five theoretically allows each one to get more touches and take more shots during other portions of the game.
In this case, as you saw last night, he put them together more often without Simmons and Redick on the floor, and that gives us a good chunk of data, a starting point to finding out whether these lineups can be viable moving forward.
A few good seconds with Wilson Chandler
Wilson Chandler doesn’t do much media. He’s a nice guy, but doesn’t usually have too much to say.
We got a rare podium appearance from him last night, and while the takeaway was Joel Embiid jokingly interrupting him, Chandler did answer a couple of questions:
Crossing Broad: How do you think you’ve been playing recently and how are you fitting into this system?
Chandler: It’s been a tough process for me but I think I’m starting to figure it out.
Crossing Broad: How so?
Chandler: Just playing off Jo and Ben, where to be aggressive and where to find shots.
Crossing Broad: Is it difficult or unique to be playing with four high-usage guys who like to have the ball and need to take shots?
Chandler: Yeah, just unique.
The end.
Maybe we can get him off to the side at some point in the near future. He’s a veteran guy, he’s played a lot of basketball and seen a lot of things. It would be good to pick his brain and get his take on how the offense is working, how the stars are clicking, and what he’s seeing on defense. He played well last night, putting up 14, 5, and 4 on 5-7 shooting while going 4-6 from behind the arc. That’s really all that needs to be asked of him at this point: play defense, grab some boards, be a glue guy on offense, etc. Brett played him a bit as a small forward last night, which is where you saw him log a ton of minutes in New York and Denver over the course of his career. You’d have to go back over several hundred games, but I’m pretty sure Chandler has played more small forward than power forward during his years in the NBA.
Other notes:
Marc Zumoff was the pre-game bell ringer. Marc is currently in his 25th season as the play-by-play announcer
Per Sixers PR via Basketball Reference: Philadelphia now has a league-best seven games this season with at least 50 rebounds and 30 assists. This was the first time an NBA team had 50-40 game in regulation this season. The last team to produce such a game was Atlanta on Nov. 15, 2017
Also: The 40 assists, an NBA season-high in regulation, are the most Philadelphia has recorded in regulation since they had 45 on Dec. 7, 1988
RE: Bayless, I ran a poll asking whether his booing was fair or not. The results are around 50/50 so far:
Poll: is the booing of Jerryd Bayless fair?
— Kevin Kinkead (@Kevin_Kinkead) January 16, 2019
I do kind of wonder why Bayless was the target of fan ire. I think it’s two things. First, he’s a product of the unpopular Bryan Colangelo era. Second, his body language was sort of “meh” when he was here. I think the fans picked up on that. I know he was injured during his first year, then he didn’t play a lot in his second year, but he never said anything or did anything to really sell the fan base on his mentality or motivation. He always looked disinterested, in my opinion.
Here was the tribute video the Sixers showed for Covington (injured, didn’t play), Saric, and Bayless:
We thank Dario, Covington, and Bayless for all the memories. Once a 76er, always a 76er
#RoCo #TheHomie pic.twitter.com/kPBkM9IL9p
— Sixers Nation (28-16) (@PHLSixersNation) January 16, 2019
Dario started 4-4 last night and finished 5-9 for 11 points while adding 5 rebounds and 2 assists.
The post Laying the Smacketh Down – Observations from Sixers 149, Timberwolves 107 appeared first on Crossing Broad.
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The Ultimate Facebook Ads Guide
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The Ultimate Facebook Ads Guide
5 Reasons Why You Should Be Advertising on Facebook - Facebook Ads Guide
Reason #1: Increased Website Traffic
Reason #2: It can help build your email list
Reason #3: Generate More Sales
Reason #4: Increase Your SEO Rankings
Reason #5: You can measure your performance in real-time
5 Myths About Facebook Ads
Myth #1: You should re-target all of your visitors
Myth #2: Relevance Score is the most important metric
Myth #3: Manual Bidding is better than Automatic Bidding
Myth #4: You need a huge budget to run Facebook Ads
Myth #5: Running Facebook Ads is easy
5 Facebook Ads Mistakes
Mistake #1: Boring Ad Creative
Mistake #2: Poor Audience Targeting
Mistake #3: Not using the Facebook Pixel
Mistake #4: Weak Headlines
Mistake #5: “Setting & Forgetting” Your Campaigns
Campaign Structure
Campaign Level - Facebook Ads Guide
Ad Set Level - Facebook Ads Guide
Delivery
Dynamic Creative
Budget & Schedule
Audience
Ad Level - Facebook Ads Guide
Audience Insights
Facebook Pixel
Struggling with Facebook Ads?
Feeling a bit confused about the whole thing?
Want a bit of guidance?
Well, you’ve come to the right place, my friend.
I’ve been studying Facebook Ads since 2013 and I’ve seen the platform go through many changes.
Too many changes.
In fact, it’s changing as we speak.
So, it’s hard to say how relevant this article will be within a few months. But I’ll do my best to keep this thing updated.
But first, let’s talk about why you should even bother advertising on Facebook in the first place.
5 Reasons Why You Should Be Advertising on Facebook - Facebook Ads Guide
There is no shortage of ad platforms out there. In fact, there are well over 5,000 advertising platforms besides Facebook.
So why this one?
Here’s a few reasons you should consider.
Reason #1: Increased Website Traffic
It’s no secret that Facebook drives a considerable amount of traffic for a lot of businesses. There are some who solely get their traffic from Facebook.
According to a 2018 poll by Search Engine Journal, 62% of SEJ’s Twitter audience said that Facebook brought the most traffic to their website.
If you know what you’re doing, you can get plenty of eyeballs on your website from Facebook.
Reason #2: It can help build your email list
Ever heard of the phrase, “the money is in the list”?
It’s a bit cliche, but it’s true.
Your email list is one of the few things you can control.
You don’t “own” your social media profiles. They can shut you down at any time, for any reason, or no reason at all.
That’s not the case with an email list.
In fact, Facebook has an ad format that’s specially optimized for collecting contact information.
We’ll talk more about ad formats in a future post.
Reason #3: Generate More Sales
If you know how to put in $1, and get back $2, you will never go broke.
Sometimes, you can put in $1, and get back $3, $4 or more.
That’s the beauty behind knowing how to run Facebook Ads.
It’s possible to get a return on the money you put in.
Reason #4: Increase Your SEO Rankings
If you have a website, you’re gonna love this.
Search engines like Google and Bing use social signals such as likes, shares, and comments, to determine how relevant your content is.
If people are liking and sharing your post, then chances are, it’s pretty relevant for a particular term.
You would also have to be writing content that people are searching for, which is another topic in itself.
Reason #5: You can measure your performance in real-time
Back in the day, there were only a handful of ways you could advertise your business.
The main ones were television, radio, newspaper, and billboard.
They’re all very expensive, and very difficult to measure.
At best, you can get a ballpark estimate of how many people you’ll reach. And out of that number, maybe a certain number of people will respond to your ad.
Plus, there’s no guarantee that you’ll get a good return on your ad spend. And if you don’t, you’ll have to scrape up some cash and run another campaign.
5 Myths About Facebook Ads
Maybe you’re convinced that Facebook Ads is the way to go. You can see how it can help you grow your business.
However, I wouldn’t hop on the platform just yet. There’s a lot of misinformation out there that can lead you in the wrong direction.
Here are the 5 biggest ones you should watch out for.
Myth #1: You should re-target all of your visitors
If you’re not familiar with retargeting, here’s the quick and dirty version.
Imagine you just clicked on an ad for a particular product.
You browse the landing page for a bit and then you get distracted and leave.
A few hours later, you’re on another website and you see an ad for that very same product.
That’s retargeting in a nutshell.
It’s a way of showing ads to people who visited your website in the past.
And it can be very effective when it’s used properly.
However, not every advertiser realizes this. As a result, they try to retarget everyone and anyone. This isn’t a good idea because every visitor is at a different stage of the buying process.
There may be some who are ready to buy right away. Then, there are those who need a bit more warming up.
When you properly segment your retargeting efforts, your results will go through the roof and you’ll get a higher return out of each dollar you spend.
Myth #2: Relevance Score is the most important metric
In August 2019, Facebook came out with ad relevance diagnostics as a replacement for relevance scores.
It’s a series of 3 metrics that help you determine how your ads are resonating with your audience.
The diagnostics are:
Quality Ranking - Your ad’s perceived quality compared to other ads competing for the same audience.
Engagement Rate Ranking - Your ad’s expected engagement compared to other ads competing for the same audience.
Conversion Rate Ranking - How your ad’s conversion rate compared with other ads that have the same optimization goal competing for the same audience.
To be clear, these metrics do have a place. But they are not the holy grail, by any means.
The most important metrics you should be paying attention to are your KPI’s, which is short for Key Performance Indicator. Your relevance score (or diagnostic) is a secondary metric.
As long as you’re within KPI, your relevance diagnostics don’t matter very much.
Myth #3: Manual Bidding is better than Automatic Bidding
On the outside, manual bidding can seem very attractive. You’re able to tell Facebook exactly how much you’re willing to pay for your optimization event. An optimization event can be a link click, purchase, post engagement, etc.
However, you’re forgetting one small detail. If you’re bidding manually, then you have to constantly stay on top of your campaigns. You have to keep adjust your bids to ensure you’re getting the most out of your ad spend.
You thought manual bidding was a one-time event? Think again.
And we’re only assuming that you’re running one ad campaign. What if you had several running at once? Now you really have your hands full.
To be fair, there may be times when you want to set a manual bid. But in most cases, I would recommend leaving the bidding to Facebook. Their ad platform is very smart and will adjust your bids in real-time to ensure you get the most out of your campaign budget.
Myth #4: You need a huge budget to run Facebook Ads
Think you need deep pockets to run Facebook Ads?
Not quite.
Even if you have a shoestring budget, you can start running Facebook Ads.
You can start with as little as $5-$10 per day.
Heck, I once ran a campaign and spent only $1 per day. It was a Post Engagement campaign and I was targeting a broad audience. You can purchase engagement for cheap on Facebook, especially if your ad is valuable and has quality content.
Obviously, you can’t expect to get the same results with $1 per day as you can with $100 per day. At the very least, you’re putting yourself out there and you can start to get noticed by your target market.
Myth #5: Running Facebook Ads is easy
After doing Facebook Ads for a while, I can say that I have a pretty good handle on things. However, there was a lot of trial and error along the way.
If you think you can master this over the weekend, you’re going to be sorely disappointed. This stuff is easy to learn, but hard to master.
And if you’re not doing it consistently, that increases the learning curve. Plus, there’s a lot of things that can go wrong in a campaign.
A lot.
Here’s a brief list of things you need to get dialed in:
Your Target Audience (age, location, interest, etc.)
Your Offer
Your Headline
Your Landing Page
Ad Copy
Ad Creative
I dare you to mess up on any one of those things.
It’s like throwing money down the drain.
5 Facebook Ads Mistakes
We’ve just gone over some of the biggest myths in Facebook Ads, but we’re not out of the woods just yet. Facebook Ads is easy to learn and it’s also easy to mess everything up.
So, let’s go over some common mistakes people make with Facebook Ads so you don’t fall victim to any of them.
Mistake #1: Boring Ad Creative
One of the biggest mistakes you can make in marketing is having a boring ad.
If your ads are boring, nobody will click on it. This is just as true on Facebook as it is on any other ad platform.
In most cases, you’re better off being offensive to somebody than being boring to everybody.
If you want an easy way to stand out in the newsfeed, do the complete opposite of what everybody else is doing. For example, if everybody is using blue in their creatives, then use a completely different color.
Note: I'm on a journey to hit my first $10,000 month online. Click here if you want to be part of the journey.
Mistake #2: Poor Audience Targeting
There are many business owners who wrongly believe that their product is for everybody. And maybe your product might work for a variety of different people.
But I guarantee you that if you try to market to everybody, you will reach nobody.
Your message will be too generic. And the people who notice won’t take action.
Even if you have different market segments for your products, they need to be clearly defined beforehand before you start putting campaigns together.
Mistake #3: Not using the Facebook Pixel
There has been a lot of talk about disabling third-party tracking apps in web browsers. For the time being, the Facebook pixel is still a valuable tool in an advertiser’s arsenal.
It allows you to drop a “cookie” in other people’s browser when they visit your website. From there, you can retarget them at a later date with a similar offer.
It also helps with tracking conversions on your website, so you know exactly how much return you’re getting on your ad spend.
In the long run, it helps with creating better Facebook Ads and ensures that your ad gets shown to the right people, at the right time.
Mistake #4: Weak Headlines
A wise man once said, “On average, five times as many people read the headline as read the body copy.” That wise man was David Ogilvy, one of the top advertisers in the world.
If your headline fails to catch attention, then you can forget about the rest of the ad. You’re already dead in the water.
When you’re writing a headline, your best bet is to write out 5-7 possible headlines and choose the best one out of the bunch. This helps to get your juices flowing and increases the likelihood that you’ll end up writing at least one really good headline.
Mistake #5: “Setting & Forgetting” Your Campaigns
I’ll be the first to admit that launching a campaign is a lot of work. As we mentioned previously, there are a lot of things you need to get dialed in before you can submit your ads for approval.
After you hit the “submit” button, it’s time to play the waiting game. In the best case, Facebook approves your ad and it’s officially live. Or, you might get denied for some random reason and you have to make some edits.
Once your campaign is fully approved and running, your work still isn’t done yet. You need to keep an eye on it to ensure that it’s performing to your expectations.
If you’re not keeping a close eye on your campaigns, something might happen that could cost you hundreds, if not thousands of dollars in wasted ad spend.
Campaign Structure
At this point, we’ve finished laying the groundwork for understanding Facebook ads. We’re now ready to talk about the actual ad platform itself.
It would help to start by understanding how Facebook Ads are strcutured.
There are 3 distinct levels you need to be aware of when setting up your ad campaign:
Campaign Level
Ad Set Level
Ad Level
Campaign Level - Facebook Ads Guide
The campaign level is the topmost level of any Facebook Ad campaign. At this level, we define our ad objective, which is the ultimate end-goal of your campaign.
There are 11 ad objectives in total. We’ll go over them in detail in another article.
If you’re doing campaign budget optimization, this is also the level where you set your total daily campaign budget or lifetime budget.��
Facebook also has a special ad category if you’re running ads related to housing, credit, or politics. You can select that option here as well.
As a quick note, Facebook is removing ad set budgeting in favor of selecting a campaign budget, so make sure you’re familiar with it.
Ad Set Level - Facebook Ads Guide
Each campaign can have a maximum of 50 ad sets. However, you probably won’t need that many to begin.
The ad set level is divided into several key sections:
Delivery
Dynamic Creative
Budget & Schedule
Audience
Placements
Delivery
Depending on the placement you choose, you can drive your traffic to one of 4 destinations.
Not every ad objective has every destination available.
In no particular order, here they are:
Website
App
Messenger
Whatsapp
Dynamic Creative
If you activate this feature, you can supply Facebook with various assets like Headlines, images, and ad copy.
Next, the algorithm will automatically test different variations to find the best one for your chosen objective.
If you’re a beginner, I wouldn’t recommend messing around with this.
Budget & Schedule
Although the budget is set at the campaign level, you’re able to have some control over how the budget is spent at the ad set level.
If you want to ensure that you spend a certain amount of your budget on a particular ad set, you can set an ad set spend limit for the desired amount.
You can also set your start date and end date for each ad set. If you don’t wish to set an end date, then you can choose to let it run indefinitely.
Audience
In this section, you get to define exactly who you want to see your ads. The beauty behind this is that you can get very specific to ensure you reach the right person.
At a basic level, you can target people by age, location, and gender.
You can also leverage detailed targeting where you can target people by demographics, interests, and behaviors.
For demographics and behavior, some data is only available in the US.
Placements
Here, you can define where you want your ads to get shown.
You can choose whether to show your ads on mobile or desktop.
There are 4 platforms in total where your ads can appear: Facebook, Instagram, Audience Network, and Messenger.
There are 7 categories of placements where your ads can get shown:
Feeds
Stories
In-Stream
Search
Messages
In-Article
Apps & Sites
Note: I'm on a journey to hit my first $10,000 month online. Click here if you want to be part of the journey.
When setting your placements, you can either do it manually or allow Facebook to set your placements.
If you do it manually, there’s a chance that your ads may underdeliver. But you’ll have greater control in where your ads get shown.
If you allow Facebook to choose, they might show your ads in 1 or 2 placements. Still, this will help maximize your budget and ensures your ads get shown to more people.
Ad Level - Facebook Ads Guide
As the name implies, this is the level where we create the actual ads.
Facebook allows you to have a maximum of 50 ads per ad set. However, each campaign can only have a maximum of 5,000 ads. Only 1,000 of these 5,000 ads can use dynamic creative.
Identity
In this section, you choose the Facebook Page and Instagram Page that represents your business when running ads.
You cannot run Facebook Ads without a Facebook Page, but you don’t need an Instagram account to run ads on Instagram. You can use your Facebook Page on both platforms.
Audience Insights
There’s an old saying that goes, “The business that knows its customer the best will win.” In order to do that, you need information on your side. This is where Audience Insights comes into play.
Facebook created this tool to help provide aggregate and anonymous information about its people. There are 2 main groups of people this can be used for: people connected to your page and people on Facebook.
Audience Insights can be used for gaining a deeper understanding of your audience’s demographics like gender, marital status, education and job title.
Page likes helps with determining what your audience may be interested in and what may appeal to them within an advertising campaign.
You can also narrow down your audience by city, country, and language.
Last, but not least, Audience Insights gives you a glance into how active your audience is on Facebook. You can find out stats like how many pages they’ve liked, how many posts they’ve shared, number of ads clicked, etc.
You can even find out what types of devices they prefer to use like desktop or mobile. Or, you can narrow down by operating system like iPhone or Android.
Facebook Pixel
If you’re marketing on Facebook, and you don’t have the pixel installed on your website, then you’re leaving a lot of money on the table.
It’s a small piece of code that takes seconds to install, but the benefits are immense.
For example, when someone visits your website, a “cookie” gets dropped into their web browser. This is a unique identifier that allows you to retarget that person at a later date.
The pixel gets smarter over time as you feed it more conversion data. This will help you get a greater return on your ad spend while getting your ad in front of the right people.
Note: I'm on a journey to hit my first $10,000 month online. Click here if you want to be part of the journey.
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suppose someone is paying $700 a year for liability car insurance and gets a speeding ticket. how much higher can this persons insurance go up?
Can anybody advise me on the Insurance Company United America for health insurance?
I need Health insurance and would like advise on this company
What is cheaper in car insurance...?
An old fiat punto or a new fiat punto
Colonial Penn Insurance - how big is a UNIT?
The ads and website quote a price like 7.85 per month PER UNIT. I don't know if a unit is $100, $1000, $10000? The phone number quotes the price but ALSO evades the question of how big is a unit. Does anyone know the answer?""
Do I need Car Insurance to drive with a learners permit?
i live in Pennsylvania, i was told that i do not need car insurance to drive with a learners permit and i am 16. can anybody confirm, disprove, and/or explain more in depth?""
Where can I get laibality insurance for a medical assistant?
I am looking for insurance to covoer myself for Medical assistant
Typically how much does it cost to have renters insurance?
Typically how much does it cost to have renters insurance?
How can I get cheaper motorbike insurance?
I know postcode makes it cheaper/dearer, but can anyone Please tell me what else puts the price up? Thanks""
Can I go on my boyfriends health insurance florida?
I am living with my boyfriend for a year can I go on his health insurance
Health Insurance claims in LA?
How long must health insurance claims be kept on file in Louisiana hospitals and healthcare facilities?
""Car Insurance, passed test today, 18 years old, cheapest insurance?""
Hi, I passed my test this morning and I live in Birmingham in the UK, I was wondering if there was any companies that do cheap insurance for my age group.. The car I have is a 1.4 Ford Fiesta Zetec, and was looking on paying 2500 maximum. Thank you!!!""
How much money would a 16 year old have to pay for yearly insurance for a sports car?
how much money would a 16 year old have to pay for yearly insurance on a sports car? for example a 1999 ford mustang
How much would car insurance on a 2006 convertible mini cooper cost for a 16 year old boy?
in the state of texas
Is $$ 785.00 a year to much for Full-Coverage car Insurance ?
It's A.A.A. Insurance. My Honda car is 10 years old. With just 84,500 miles on it. --------------------------- (Such Low Milage cause I only drive 450 miles to 500 miles per month.)""
How much would car insurance cost for me?
I'm 17 years old, canada, ontario. Just started driving.. Anyone recommend a company, or any adivce, what are the costs per month.""
How much is insurance on a Mazda RX-8?
I'll be 19 years old when I get it(if I get it that is), I will have had my license for 4 months(if that matters), clean record(no tickets or accidents), I live in 75044 Texas(if that matters) and I'm a male(I know that matters). The car will be anywhere from an 04 to 06 with < 100k miles on it. It will be a 6 speed. [about] How much will insurance be for full coverage vs liability only? Right now I'm in a 98 Honda Civic Ex with 187k miles and it's $40 a month for liability only if that helps.""
Commercial Vehicle Insurance in the UK?
A business starts a delivery service and employs several drivers. Now each driver has their own personal insurance policy, but this will not cover them for business purposes. What would be the options for the business owner? Would the business buy a policy to cover the employees and their individual vehicles? or would they have to buy a vehicle solely for business purposes for the drivers to use? In addition, what companies are there that offer such commercial vehicle insurance for delivering purposes and what would be a ballpark figure for such a policy? extra credit for in depth answers. Thank you!!""
Car Insurance Policy When Not Vehicle Owner?
Can anyone help? My boss has bought me a car but because Renault were unable to put the finance agreement in the company name it had to go in his name, which meant that the ownership of the vehicle did too. Not the problem I have is insuring this car as insurance companies won't insurer me as the driver if I am not the car owner unless the car is owned by a spouse etc...so, I am assuming that the only way round this is for my boss to be put as the main driver and me as an additional driver...if this is the case what will happen if I have an accident or conviction, or he does? Also what about No Claims Discount as I previously built up 3 years on my old car. Please help I really don't know what to do! Thanks""
My auto insurance raised twice as much for not being insured for more then 30-days?
I had auto insurance with state farm and my policy was $180 (just liablilty)per month for 12 months. I ran into some issues with money and could not pay so I cancelled the policy and avoided driving for a little over a month. I recently went to another agency to find a cheaper insurance and they said since i had a registered vehicle that was uninsured for more than 30 days, there is a penalty. Now I pay $340 for 8 months (just liablilty). 3 agency's told me the same thing. My question is will this ever change? How long will I have this penalty ? I have a clean driving record besides this and feel this is unfair and cannot afford it. Is there anything I can do to go back to paying $180p month? When did insurance companies start doing this? I have not found anything similiar through my research. Thanks""
""2007 Mercedes S-class fuel consumption, reliability, maintenance?""
If you're 60 years old in Canada, with a great driving record, how much should insurance cost per year more or less? Also, if you drive 20,000km annually, how much should fuel cost? And is this car reliable? How much would you expect to spend on maintenance costs over the next 5 years? It has 70,000km and costs $36,000 also, is this a good price? Lots of questions I know, but thanks so much""
Problem with my car insurance company?
Just before new year, sitting stationary at a roundabout, old guy bashed into back of me. Exchanged details and went through the insurance. Nearly 4 months on...and my insurance company is still chasing liability. Meanwhile, my premium was due for renewal at end of Jan and that has gone up and my insurance company tell me they have problems with the other insurers as they don't answer their phones. They tell me they're sending out letters every 2 weeks and are trying to phone them. I don't think this is enough, especially after all this time. Basically, I'm being held over a barrel. I'll bet the old guy has got his car fixed now, but meanwhile even though I've done nothing wrong, I'm paying out more money and still have rear damage to my car!! I'm getting really sick of it, especially as I need to sell the car soon. It's completely ridiculous. Please wait for rest....""
What are some affordable nationwide health insurance plans in New /Hampshire?
looking for health insurance for my husband and unborn baby.
Whats up with renter's insurance?
is there home insurance for apartment dwellers?
Cheap Car Insurance for a 20 year old...?
I'm 20 years old I live in Houston, Tx 77045 I have a 2003 Toyota Corolla CE. I never had accidents, or traffice tickets. I need a insurance that will not be so high. Any suggestions? Thanks..""
How can 18 year old male afford an car insurance?
Im 18 year old male, i have full driving license i was searching for car insurances on my Vauxhall Corsa 2002 the prices is like 400+ a month! this is crazy! i can afford like 50-70 a month, any advice? Thanks.""
Where can a marijuana smoker get affordable life assurance?
it depends on if your a heavy smoker or just smoke a few times. if they ask for health records then you will be in a higher quote, but also when they ask you question on health and you answer honestly it will help you in the long run because then you will be covered for the need of that disability since your health assurance new you can since you are a smoker. but it depends on if your a heavy smoker or just smoke a few times.""
Why is my Car insurance so high?
I'm 18 and live on my own, so the insurance is under my name NOT my parents. That's already a reason why it would be higher. But im paying 620 dollars a month, its getting ridiculous to keep up with. Everyone I tell is shocked at how high it is. I've never been in an accident or traffic violation. But when I got the insurance a couple of other places quoted me 900 dollars a month! so 620 dollars is cheap? Also when i got the insurance I was unemployed, and everytime I got a quote I would have to tell them I didn't have a job. Would this be Why its so high?""
Cheap car insurance uk?
My car insurance is due, anyone know the cheapest company to go with? I'm a 19 year old guy with 2 years no claims and no convictions. The cheapest I found on a comparison website was 1300. any help would be appreciated. Thanks""
""Is insurance on a kitcar cheaper than a standard car,ie,toyota mr2 with ferrari body kit,?""
Is insurance on a kitcar cheaper than a standard car,ie,toyota mr2 with ferrari body kit,?""
What would you recommend as a first car for a young driver?
must be cheap insurance, affordable and any good insurance companies for young drivers?""
How much does your credit rating affect your car insurance premium?
The CSR from my company just told me that continuous coverage is much more of a discount than a good credit rating gives you. So, overall, about what percent do folks in the know think that the credit rating matters?""
How much will insurance co pay us?
i was 35 wks preg and had a car accident that was other drivers fault. had to stay overnight at hospital for pre term contractions and plancental tear from seatbelt injury. out of work for about a week befor being released from scrict bed rest. had to have someone else keep kids and all. im 37wks now and just got the ok to get chiropratic care. we both have geico and they have been really nice about everything. husband doesnt want to get a laywer yet wants to see what they offer first. just wanted to know a ballpark number to look or ask for if anyone knows.also suffered chest injury which cause me to loose my voice due to sudden onset of Gerds from seatbelt injury.still in pain and not back at work had plans on working till i had the baby but cant now.already suffer pregnancy now have pain from accident just feel terrible. help.
Typically how much does it cost to have renters insurance?
Typically how much does it cost to have renters insurance?
How much insurance do you guys pay for 2005+ mustang gt?
im 21 years old and thinking about buying a 2007 mustang since I have saved up enough money for one. I have 3 speeding tickets in my record driving history. I can only afford upto $4000-$4500 a year in insurance. Can I not afford this car? Gas and winter driving are not problems for me.
How much would an insurance premium rise if you has 2 speeding tickets?
Now, I am considering adding myself to my husbands policy(for his car). I went 15 years without a single ticket, and then this past year I recieved two speeding tickets within 6 months. I was only going 5 mph over on one, and 7 mph on the other. Will the agent factor this in, or is speeding, speeding no matter how fast..It was NOT fast enough to be consdered wreckless driving. Neither of us have ever had an accident...(thank you lord!) Alos- How long does it take for tickets to come off your record? And are they also basing premiums off credit? I have good credit, so could that help the speeding issue?""
What would be a cheap motorcycle to insure....?
im 20 with im going to do a safety course id like something sporty looking...new or used...would it be cheaper to go with a older bike so i can carry liability or do older bikes have alot of problems....inform me with you advanced riders knowledge
How do I insure my new used car while I wait to pass my test?
I have a UK provisional driving licence, am due to take my practical test in little over a week and have just bought a used car. I have purchased temporary insurance so that my mum can drive the car home for me, which cost me 45 for the day. I'm an older learner driver, (over 40). How do I insure the car whilst it sits on the road outside my house until I pass my test?""
""On an Annual basis, how much does health insurance cost in America?
I would like to know how much the average American citizen pays in Health Insurance per year please.
How much info do the govt have on what sort of car insurance u have?
Like as long as I have an insurance certificate am I sweet until I have an accident? Or if I give the insurance company wrong info for a cheaper quote will the govt find out? If so how? My mates had his car for ages and has no insurance and the police have never said anything to him Cheers
How much would car insurance in North Carolina be for an 18 year old?
I was wondering how much car insurance would be for someone my age? I've been told by a bunch of other people my age that their car insurance is $140 a month....Thanks for any help:]
Insurance on SUVs?
How much is insurance on SUVs usually... like a Jeep Grand Cherokee Laredo or a Chevrolet.. anyone know?
Moving to France - car insurance?
I am moving to France next week and will be taking my British registered car. I rang my insurers who told me that they would only insure me 'up to the ferry' and after that ...show more
Do you have to pay for insurance if you get your learners permit in California?
I am 15 and am getting my permit next week and I was wondering if I would have to pay for insurance if I drive my parents cars.
Need help finding car insurance?
I need my own insurance policy in order to get off of my mom's, but I need one that is cheap and affordable. Any ideas?""
Car Insurance costs: How can I tell what my car insurance will be without giving away details...?
I have my provisional, and as soon as I pass I intend on getting a car. I am in the UK, and was wondering if there was a way to see how much car insurance costs. I was looking to see if I could roughly get a car insurance quote without already having a car etc, since I would obviously have to see the insurance price before buying the car. Any contributions to solving this question will be greatly appreciated! I cannot find the answer anywhere! Please do not post comments such as ask around or ask an agent Thanks guys! (:""
Home owner insurance in florida?
I need to by home owner insurance in florida at a reasonable price. and I need insuracnce this month
How does being self employed affect car insurance rates?
I was laid off a month ago (I'm actually happy I was because I was not enjoying work at all). I've started my own company, and I mostly work from home and I don't drive very much. My car insurance is up for renewal. It says I drive 1-3 miles to work or school. Should I tell them that I'm no longer employed? Do you think my rates will go down???""
Can my License Plates be suspended under the mandatory insurance law even if I did not drive the car?
My sister was arressted for driving my car with no insurance and now my plates are suspended. I thought it was only if you were driving your own car they would suspend it? Help!
Should you get better car insurance coverage when purchasing a home?
I am currently house shopping and my boss mentioned increasing my car insurance coverage to cover the price of my house in case I get into an accident where the damages are higher than my coverage. Could I be sued for my house if I cause an expensive accident and my insurance doesn't cover it or all of it? Should my car insurance be raised to 150k, and how much can I expect that to cost? I live in California and the legal minimum is 15/30(which is what I currently have), I told my agent I would like to pay no more than 160k for the house, though I was approved for more.. I drive an rsx, it's paid for, and drive roughly 22k miles a year.""
Will my insurance go up that much if I buy a Camaro?
I currently have a 96 Pontiac Sunfire and I have Erie insurance which through them I have liability only on my car and my rates are $60.00 a month....I am 18,19 years old next month and I found on craigslist a guy who is desperately wanting to get rid of his camaro and is willing to trade it straight up for my sunfire,as he and his gf are having a baby and she wants him to get rid of his toy....now this camaro is a 95,fully loaded automatic,t tops, leather interior etc...and my sunfire is the basic model,manual windows,locks etc....so obviously Id be making out very well in value....now I am on my own insurance and my mother chewed me out when I told her about me maybe trading for this camaro...will my insurance go up THAT much?""
What is a fast but cheap to insure car?
Im 24, 6 years no claims bonus with 6 years driving and no fault crashes (only people have crashed into me) i have 7000 to spend on a car what is the fastest car i could get with the cheapest insurance? (i have extra money to spend on insurance seperately)""
""I am looking for a good,affordable place to rent out to throw a party.In sacramento and surrounding areas?""
Does anybody know a good place.I just want to have fun and make sure people are safe ,but at an affordable price ?""
Cancelling car insurance?
if i decided to cancel my car insurance and go elsewhere would i have to pay a cancellation fee? if so how much is this likely to be? im with m&s (underwritten by bisl). also will my previous ncd be void because i wont have completed this current year due to cancelling early?
""I know NOTHING about insurance, I'm looking for car insurance?
My friend sent me the link to this website http://quck-insurance-quote.com and I'm wondering if it is good information I should use?
Which companies do temporary car insurance for under 21 year olds?
Everyone i find wants you to be over 21. Is there a company that give me temporary insurance? I am 18 years old Thanks
Is there a way I can drop my car insurance since I am not using my car?
I have not used my car in a few months but still have insurance on it. I still want to keep my vehicle though, but just have it in the garage. Can I drop my insurance? My biggest fear is that once I cancel it and want to start driving my car again I will have higher rates? Is there any way I can avoid this???""
Best young driver insurance company ?? (Ireland)?
so just got my full licence and was wondering which company would be the best and cheapest for me? 10 points :)
Where can i find the best disability insurance?
There are so many options out there I dont know who to choose.
Typically how much does it cost to have renters insurance?
Typically how much does it cost to have renters insurance?
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/march-1-business-paid-3600-twelve-month-liability-sibylla-henderson-1"
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Patreon Bum Of The Month
Recognize her? If you’re not a wrestling fan, you’re thinking: Nope. If you are a wrestling fan you’re thinking: Nope. This is Allysin Kay, better known as Sienna on Impact Wrestling. She dazzles fans every night in front of a nationwide audience on television...so why the hell does she need a Paytreon? I’ll be damned if I know.
The Pitch
Welcome, my fellow savages! If you've made it this far, I assume you're here with a purpose, but for those who may be browsing: My name is Allysin Kay. I've been a pro wrestler for the past 9 years, and I currently wrestle for Impact Wrestling on Pop TV as Sienna. I want to provide something a little different than your typical fan interactions. Something a little more personal. Something reoccurring... Patreon is making this possible. This is a subscription service in exchange for recurring merchandise and exclusive content. Every contribution, big or small, is GREATLY APPRECIATED, but there is no obligation to do so. This is here for my ride or dies, my A1's since Day 1, my biggest supporters who want to help me build a foundation for something bigger. As the pledge amount increases, so do the perks! The more extra support I have coming in, the more time I can dedicate to keeping in touch with you, my awesomely Classy As F*#% fans, the more I can focus on sharpening my tools for my true love (Pro Wrestling) and my mistress, (MMA) and the more elaborate and outrageous my performances can be. I already appreciate your support simply through following me on social media, coming to shows, making signs, buying merch, putting your pinkies up... ;) But if you do want something more individualized, something more personal, or even just want to contribute in general, this is for you! I'm pretty active on social media, but those who have followed me for some time know that I'm a fairly private person. Becoming a patron will give you a glimpse into my "real" life, plus TONS of exclusive material that I won't be making public. Stay classy my friends, AK
Are you still awake? No? Yes? Well if you pay her a monthly fee you’ll get...merchandise and...exclusive content. From a wrestler. Apparently, she’ll use the money for keeping in touch with her fans and training in Pro Wrestling and MMA. Strangely enough, this doesn’t seem like something a pro wrestler would say. “Hay fans! Triple H here! I wrestle on T.V. every week and get paid, like, at least $50,000 per wrestling show! I want you to pay for my training expenses and in return I’ll follow you on Twitter!” Yep. A wrestler who performs in a major promotion that is seen on TELEVISION and the over inflated sense of entitlement is still there. Hell, if it weren’t, there would be about 13 Patreon accounts worldwide.
Being a well-known wrestler, she could never get away with the usual e-beggar clap-trap of “I have PTSD, ADD, ADHD, Neruo-psychological disorder and I’m black!” so instead we get the usual pro wrestler clap-trap of “Hey y’all my dawgz! My A-1 since day 1′s! My Ryde or Dyez!!” Neither is more silly and manipulative than the other; it’s just that the latter is more tolerable since it’s coming from a person who regularly uses her head as a crowbar on a nightly basis. What I’m trying to say is that her pitch is stupid...just like her Paytreon.
The Tier “Rewards”
As usual, when a T.V. celebrity of Sienna’s caliber comes up with the idea to ask fans to supplement their income, things get tragic real fast. In Sienna’s case, this tragedy is compounded even more by how she is able to get away with what has to be the most egregious example of minimum effort, maximum profit.
Level 1 - Private FB Group & Wallpapers $1 or more per month
YOU ARE OFFICIALLY A PATRON!! And on my list of humans to spare.
A dollar may not seem like a lot, but it goes a long way, and truly means so much to me that you would even want to show me support.
To say THANK YOU for joining me on this crazy journey, you will receive a link to my private, patron-only Facebook group - AK's Studio 47!
In addition, you will also receive an exclusive downloadable wallpaper of yours truly EVERY MONTH!
Last but certainly not least, you now have access to my Patron-Only content feed! (My calendar, updates, polls, rewards offered for patron-related goals, etc.) And of course, my undying love and gratitude. <3
“It’s only a dollar”, I hear people say. I call B.S. on that one. You’re asking people to give you a dollar each month and in return they get access to your Private Facebook Group? I’ve been a part of these groups and I’ve had more fun getting jumped in an alley. Not only are these groups NEVER run by the celebrity in question, but the celeb never even seems to notice that they exist despite giving their endorsement to make it “official”. In Sienna’s case, I’m sure she could take time out of her busy schedule to drop in every...what...two to three weeks or so. Every dollar counts!
Level 2 - The Coveted Follow Back! $5 or more per month
If you don't have the time or enough shits to give about a blog, (next tier) and are just looking for a follow back on Twitter and Instagram, this is the option for you!
• I will follow you back for as long as you are a patron!
• PLUS you get everything from the previous tier!
• Be sure to have your handles in your Patreon profile
For 5 bucks or more, she’ll follow you on Twitter or Instagram. She won’t interact with you, won’t like your comments on her pics, won’t like anything you post or tweet and she damn sure isn’t gonna re-tweet anything you tweet so what’s the point? So you can tell people you’re being followed by Sienna! You know, the wrestler! No, that’s Nia Jax! Sienna dude! No, that’s Sasha Banks! She’s on Impact wrestling! You know the wrestling show! Jeff Jarrett used to be on there. You know, Jeff Jarrett! The wrestler...
Putting this into perspective, I’m following 7 pro female boxers and 4 female MMA fighters. They post regularly, often answer questions their fans have and will give a like or shout out if your comment strikes their fancy. I paid NOTHING to follow these REAL world champions and have made small talk with most of them. Compare that to just having this world champion pro wrestler follow you in complete silence because your 8 dollar monthly contribution wasn’t high enough to garner her attention. Bonus: After you regain your senses and withdraw your Paytreon support, she’ll most likely forget to unfollow you. Neither of you will notice, though.
Level 3 - The Motown Lowdown$10 or more per month
• Raw & unfiltered, get a glimpse inside my mind and into my personal life through my private blog.
• This tier will also give you first dibs on exclusive content such as non-wrestling photoshoots, Vlogs, & other exciting news before I post to social media!
• PLUS everything from the previous two tiers!
**Disclaimer: I like F Bombs. :)
Give her 10 bucks and she’ll let you into her private blog where you’ll get access to the same boring pictures that will end up on her Instagram and Twitter for free 2 days later. I’m sure you’ll become a fan of F-Bombs once you realize you just tossed 10 bucks into this singularity.
Level 4 - Sienna SNAPPED $15 or more per month
• All the benefits from the previous tiers, PLUS: • Access to my personal Snapchat!!
• This is the ONLY Snap I post to anymore!
• You will receive exclusive, REAL TIME content before I post anywhere else!
• Selfies, gym pics, photoshoots, adventures on the road, behind the scenes pictures/videos, and SOOO many more shenanigans. The majority of which I will NEVER be making public!
Explain to me what you mean by “This is the ONLY Snap I post to anymore!”. Do you have multiple Snapchat accounts? A doppelganger? What the heck does that mean? Oh, nothing. It’s just a marketing ploy to con some dork out of 15 bucks. Brilliant. As far as content goes, I just don’t see anything here of value. Other wrestlers post the same things all the time on social media so I’m not getting why you’re so intent on hiding behind the scenes pictures behind a paywall, Sienna. As usual, you can either pay 15 bucks a month for this exclusive content or follow her for free on Twitter or Instagram and wait a couple of days for some of the pics and not ever know about or even miss the pics she doesn’t post.
Level 5 - AKTV $25 or more per month
• This tier will get you a personalized 30-second video message EVERY MONTH!
• These can be general or specific - Want a birthday shout out? Want to learn how to be a savage? Want me to roast your friend? This is the tier for you!
• Don't forget - you ALSO get everything from the lower tiers!
Just what I’ve always wanted. A female wrestler, who isn’t Act Yasukawa, mispronouncing my name in a 30 second video. Not a waste of 25 bucks. Not at all. Seriously, this is probably the best tier. That’s not saying much, however. Like saying it’s better to get punched in the eye than punched in the nose.
Level 6 - Q & A (K47) $29 or more per month
• I will be reaching out to you EVERY month to compile your questions & answer them in a video available ONLY to subscribers at this tier and above!
• I will also occasionally have special guests during my Q&A - I will give you a heads up when I can - The possibilities are endless. >:)
For an oddly specific 29 bucks a month she does a Q & A. Why would I care? Why would her fans care? What can you ask a world champion pro wrestler like Sienna? “Is wrestling fake?” or “Can you sign my undershorts?” or even “Why the fuck did you need a Patreon account? Is Impact Wrestling bouncing its checks to you again?”
Level 7(b) - Pinkies Up for ALL Merch! (National) $59 or more per month
• If you live within the continental U.S. & want access to ALL my merchandise, this is the option for you!
• You will receive 1 item each month just like the last tier, except now you will have some #ClassyAF tshirts to add to your collect as well!
• I will also be periodically checking in to let my patrons weigh in on new designs!
She has three freaking tier goals for her merchandise and each go from 39 to 79 doallars a month. So you can get one free item of merchandise per month. 79 dollars for a T-SHIRT. I don’t care how much you like Sienna. This makes John Gotti look like a petty thief. She also will let patrons weigh in on new designs. Want to know what that means? Nothing. She’s not going to let a group of easily swayed simpletons choose the designs for her merchandise that ships all over the world! Are you crazy? No, she’ll pick the design herself and claim that “one of my patrons chose this design” without naming who it was. I hate Paytreon.
Level 8 - Bigger, Faster, Stronger $99 or more per month
Emphasis on "BIGGER" - This level will get you ALL of the previous rewards, PLUS a GIANT AUTOGRAPHED POSTER of yours truly!
I don't have posters available otherwise, so this one is exclusive to Patreon! <3
Give her 99 dollars for a poster. A goddamned poster. A poster that she will have to commission since nobody knows who the hell she is and won’t do posters of her for that reason.
LEVEL 9 - Classy As F*#%! $199 or more per month
You're either crazy or crazy in love, but I LIKE CRAZY! You, my friend, now have top-tier status! You are officially #ClassyAF!!
You get ALL the benefits from ALL EIGHT previous tiers, PLUS:
•A monthly Skype chat with yours truly!!
•If you subscribe at this tier for 3 months, you will receive your choice of either one custom photo shoot or one misc. event-worn item.
Disclaimer: I don't do nudity. Both options are up to my discretion. Thank you for respecting my decision! It is called the Classy As F*#% tier, after all. ;)
She’ll talk to you once a month on Skype for $199. Now, correct me if I’m wrong, but why is a skype call so important to a wrestling fan that they would pay 200 bucks to speak to Sienna of GFW Impact Wrestling? Of course, the restriction on nudity is there because...Paytreon won’t let her show her ass in a private video. And she thanks us for respecting HER decision. Her decision? Doubtful. From what I’ve seen on this Paytreon page, I can say with 100% certainty that she would have very little qualms with getting nude if she could raise that Paytreon dollar. Paytreon beggars are born with an inability to feel shame.
Final Thoughts
Her “Goals” tier lists a number of patrons rather than an actual dollar amount which is notable in that she seems to be trying to build a fanbase rather than raise a specific amount of money. There’s only two goals as well, 20 patrons and 100 patrons. She has released another “exclusive video” at the 20 patron mark and I can’t imagine it’s worth a damn. She claims that at 100 patrons she’ll release a video of her very first wrestling match but by this point, I doubt anyone cares, not even her.
This Paytreon is among the worst I’ve ever seen. All it needs to complete its slide into the pits of hell would be a tier where she generously kills your mom in exchange for your car. The tier “rewards” seem like they were tossed into “Patreon Tier Reward Generator v4.4″ and, after nearly laughing itself into shutdown, spit out this nonsensical array of by the numbers garbage. On my scale of -10 to 10 this one gets a -10 without question. Celebrities should not be using Paytreon to supplement their income. It looks ridiculous and desperate. The only good thing about this Paytreon is that there’s only 78 people taken in by this farce.
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Argentina: Think Globally, Act Locally
Fed as expected...go ahead and whack bids on the levered VIX vehicle of your choice. They did have to keep that December dot implying a hike--if they took it out it would be a major mistake to try to put the toothpaste back in the tube and hike after all--but if the data rolls over it will be no surprise if they simply decide to stand pat. Deep dive time again folks...there was a quick mention on usd/ars in the comments last week--circling back to this market, the Argentine peso has been left out of the EMFX fiesta the past few months.
ARS has been a notable laggard over the last three months, and finishes dead last YTD, according to data from WSJ. Yet carry is over 20% per annum--a veritable tractor beam for sucking in EM and crossover investors.
While there has been continued optimism in the local political scene and inflows have continued, there is a divergence between tighter USD bond spreads and the value of the peso. Let’s break this down into its component risks.
The Credit
Frequent readers will remember my post on the government’s issuance of a 100-year bond back in June, an event many in the media, and even some old hands like Howard Marks, viewed as the end of times. The point I wanted to make is that it was driven by reverse inquiry--real money wanted a more capital efficient vehicle to express a positive view of Macri and his reforms, and the duration was better defined as a leveraged bet on medium-term credit improvement rather than a bet that the country wouldn’t default on my grandchildren.
If all goes well until year end, a couple of PMs that made that reverse inquiry are going to clear a pretty nice check...After tapping the market around 90, the century bond is going looking to take a crack at par...and that’s not even counting over 7% carry, payable in USD and settled in New York.
After winning an important election in June, Macri’s ratings are still relatively good by the standards of Latin America--with approval ratings ranging from the 40s to low 50s, and polling for the upcoming senate race shows Macri’s candidate with a small lead over former president Cristina Kirchner. A victory in this election would be a big signal that Macri’s platform will be sustainable politically and improve the odds for him to win a second term.
I continue to believe global trends will buy time for Macri’s agenda to work--and while an Argentine election is always a bit of a crapshoot, the trend in Latam favors center-right candidates as the pendulum has swung away from the neo-socialist candidates that won victories in the early 2000s in Argentina, Brazil, Peru, Ecuador, Venezuela and Chile.
Beyond the political risk, the fiscal situation is far from healthy--and will require a bout of austerity and likely significant spending cuts. The 2017 primary balance is a nasty -4%/GDP, which means the government is going to be running up a larger debt load for the foreseeable future.
With the economy still sluggish, here’s another chart that keeps the reformists awake at night:
Put another way, just as in Brazil, nearly 40% of the budget is going to pensions and social security obligations. That is simply strangling government finances. Slashing these benefits to cut the budget deficit isn’t going to be easy on the economy, on voters, or on the government’s relationship with unions.
Will Macri have the political capital to push through a pension reform? I’m skeptical--higher taxes seem more likely, but that can’t fully close the gap. A “fiscal rule” law would be a politically palatable intermediate step. Either way, as the charts below show, an acceleration of public debt at this pace for a sub-investment grade credit is simply unsustainable.
Which brings us to how Argentina fits into the broader EM sovereign credit universe. Below I have highlighted the public debt burden in Argentina, and circled a couple of similar credits--Brazil and South Africa.
From a debt sustainability perspective, Brazil and South Africa have similar burdens--Brazil is certainly trending fast in the wrong direction--but has a much bigger stock of domestic savings and (maybe) a reform movement of its own. South Africa has a worse political situation but a stronger domestic economy and not near the primary budget gap of its Latin brethren. Pairing that with a look at 5y CDS levels (as a proxy for credit spreads at large) demonstrates just what kind of premium investors are being paid in Argentina:
Yeah, juicy….so you can see why that kind of premium compared with a center-right, technocratic, reformist government is an attractive combination for foreign investors, especially when those investors have been starved Argy exposure (and yield) for years as they were locked out of international markets.
My takeaway on the credit is that there is much more beta than alpha at these levels--I continue to believe in the positive local theme, and it will work so long as the “reach for yield” theme works globally. I expect Cambiemos will win in October, which should provide a short-term tailwind, but the medium-term is fraught and highly dependent on local and international factors that could throw the reform movement into a state of chaos.
The Currency
As the century bond ripped 10 points in less than three months, an investor that sold a 3mo usd/ars NDF at the same time has essentially made nothing. Spot ARS has cheapened, but with that spicy 20% carry (in ARS), you’re basically flat here.
So what gives? USD has weakened across the board….”risk-on, reach for yield, buy EM” is arguably the theme of the year...Macri’s coalition performed well in primary elections and remains relatively popular….What’s not to like about ARS?
There are some fundamental and technical headwinds that have prevented further ARS appreciation. The first is a combination of the political economy of the Macri administration and the continued triage of the damage wrought by years of the Kirschners populist policies.
The first is local real rates. ARS rates are 20-22% are for a 1-3mo non-deliverable forward (NDF). The idea here is that if you want to buy pesos via an offshore derivative, you receive an ARS asset vs. a USD liability, to be settled in New York at an agreed, published fixing rate linked to the spot rate at the maturity of the derivative contract.
While rates are fantastically high by global standards, much of that value is eroded by inflation around 22% YoY. As I have mentioned before, at that level of real rates in Argentina you are highly levered to a positive economic and political outcome rather than a simple “cash and carry” trade. You’re gonna need help…. from inflation, from the BCRA, from Macri, and from voters. Will BCRA make progress in the battle against inflation? Will voters be patient enough with reforms to continue to support the government?
Another headwind for the peso is the central bank’s desire to accumulate foreign reserves after years of drawdowns. Earlier this year the BCRA announced they would continue to increase international reserves. The central bank is targeting a reserves-to-GDP ratio around 15% over the next two years, which according to a report from the Brazilian bank Itau, would require an increase of 48.3bn USD.
The central and provincial governments will issue more bonds in USD during that time, which the central bank will exchange for pesos. But there will be a significant gap between USD issuance and the accumulation to bring reserves to adequate levels.
That means the central bank will be on the bid in USD when there is significant appreciation not tied to improvements in the political situation and/or sovereign risk. Getting back to the opening point, that also fits with the administration’s incentive to keep ARS competitive and allow export markets to heal and grow after years of capital famine. Similar to the credit, this is an attractive carry trade if you buy into “the story”, but not without its risks. I think ARS will appreciate over time, but it won’t be quick.
A trade I like more than the credit/politics driven trades in outright usd/ars or the USD bonds is the local t-bill market, known as Lebacs, which sport a yield of roughly 27% for maturities under one year. The catch here is that you have to bring USD into the country, sell it in the spot market, and buy the Lebacs.Then you hedge that ARS exposure by buying a usd/ars ndf to the same maturity in the offshore market around 22%. You pocket 5% per annum for running the local credit risk and risk that the government again implements currency controls.
Why does this spread exist? I think it is a combination of three factors: 1) the bid for spot USD by the BCRA, 2) bullish fast money traders hitting bids in front end NDFs (Johno, I’m looking at you), and 3) higher local yields driven by supply of lebacs the BCRA issues to sterilize the ARS they are selling into the spot market when they buy dollars. Quite simply there is a shortage of dollars in the local market and there aren’t enough investors brave enough to step into the breach.
Any EM trader with stripes on their back, or one with even a cursory knowledge of Argentine financial history will tell you the catch there--one day the government may decide to implement capital controls because they don’t want to give your dollars back. You’re stuck with Argentine pesos with no way to exchange them back into dollars. Ask any US airline with connections to Caracas how that worked out for them.
But compared to 5yr CDS under 300bps, this is a very attractive spread. An investor sells USD into the local market and receives about 500bps with no FX or duration risk. The lebacs and ndf hedges mature every one to three months, so you have the opportunity to get out if the fundamentals or political situation deteriorate. That is unlikely--Macri’s structural reform agenda may or may not materialize, but he has embarked upon capital market reforms that aren’t going to be unwound before the presidential election in 2019.
Long story short, at 500bps this spread is well in excess of the risk that the government will again implement capital controls over the next 3, 6, or 12 months. It’s a clean single to right field if you have the cash and local legal set up to do it.
Not sure if the MM audience is well versed in the dynamics of on-off spreads, but feel free to step up and throw in your two cents on the credit or the local scene.
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