#final thesis countdown has begun

[freizusein]

it doesn't need to be perfect it only needs to be done it doesn't need to be perfect it only needs to be done it doesn't need to be perfect it only needs to be done it doesn't need to be perfect it only needs to be done it doesn't need to be perfect it only needs to be done it doesn't need to be perfect it only needs to be done it doesn't need to be perfect it only needs to be done it doesn't need to be perfect it only needs to be done it doesn't need to be perfect it only needs to be done it doesn't need to be perfect it only needs to be done it doesn't need to be perfect it only needs to be done it doesn't need to be perfect it only needs to be done it doesn't need to be perfect it only needs to be done it doesn't need to be perfect it only needs to be doneeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee EAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH--------

[klmnrchrd]

Az egyik dolog ami hiányzik az egyetemről, az az, hogy minden év végén volt valamiféle lezárása az aktuális projekteknek a kipakolás formájában. Mivel ez az első olyan évem ami kvázi egyetem mentes, így kézenfekvőnek tűnt összeállítani egy évzáró posztot. Ha úgy vesszük, eddig mindig Január vége volt az az időszak, amikor dokumentáltam és publikáltam a munkáim, szóval ilyen szempontból nem is késtem olyan sokat az évzárással, íme:

Január 13. 2015-ben hozzáfogtunk egy Hommage à Hermann Zapf kiállítás megtervezéséhez, ami végül is kicsit túl nagy falatnak bizonyult három aktív embernek egy félévre, így az egész Formaterem felrobbantása és a szörnyeteg-méretű installációk elkészítése helyett az ami kiállítótermének baloldali 13 méteres falára csinálunk egy mini kiállítást.

Január 14. Megkezdődött a diploma visszaszámlálás, témám az IPM magazin újratervezése lett.

Február 17. Íme az űr törmelékéből megszületett a Japetus, félig képzeletbeli zenekarunk Gergővel! Az első tektonikus tevékenységek melléktermékeként született is egy kedves kis dalocska →

Február 23. Interjú a Phenomenon.hu-n.

Február 24. Elkészült a diplomamunkám első próba printje.

Március 3. Interjú a Neigbourart-on.

Március 11. Sikeresen lezajlott az első diploma tervbemutatónk.

Március  Az Apollo Space Program című könyvem elnyerte a 2016-os Molnár István díjat!

Április Elkészítettem a dilomamunkám második makettjét. Jelentős tisztogatáson esett át a kezdeti fázishoz képest és kezdte elnyerni a végleges állapotát.

Május 5. Elkészült a diplomamunkám és regisztráltam a szakdolgozatom.

Május 19. Pilisi Gótika – II. András Francia kapcsolatai címmel nyílt régészeti kiállítás Szentendrén, amely arculatának megtervezésére még Januárban kért fel a Ferenczy Múzeumi Centrum.

Június 2. Sikeresen megvédtem MA diplomám. Nagy öröm! Ugyanakkor nagy szomorúság: júniusban elhagytam Sopront.

Július Harmadik helyezést értem el a MITTE pályázatán, ahol egy fiktív design múzeumnak kellett logót és katalógus tervet készíteni. Furcsa módon fel is vettek az említett munkahelyre.

Augusztus – Szeptember – Október Többnyire dolgoztam a munkahelyemen, ami felélte minden időm és lelkesedésem. Szeptember Az Apollo Space Program című könyvemmel bekerültem az ArtHungry Díj 45 döntőse közé! Elnyertem a kiállítás jogát a Formatervezési Díjon.

Október 24. Felmondtam a munkahelyemen, hogy szabadon úszhassak mint egy madár! 

November  Terveztem magunknak egy kanapét aminek kivitelezésében sokat köszönhetek Botos Balázs barátomnak. Decemberre össze is állt a váz, a kárpitos azt ígérte, hogy Februárban felavathatjuk az egyelőre csak placeholder kanapét. Kiállító voltam az Országos Tervezőgrafikai Biennálén.

November 15. Elszavalhattam életem első megnyitó beszédét Ján kiállításának alkalmából a Szikla öt galériában. A galéria egyébként volt tanárunk, Szeifert Gyuri érdeme, aki saját lakásában unta meg a fehér falak nézegetését, ezért időszakos kiállításokat rendez nappalijában egy-egy művész öt-öt művéből. → Ezen a linken ← tudod megnézni a nagyon komoly megnyitó ceremóniát.

December Készítettem egy bélyegzőt Labozár Antalnak, aki segített néhány faalapú projektem elkészítésében.

One thing I miss for sure about the University is that we had some kind of closure to our projects, in the form of an exhibition. Since this is my first year out from school, it seems convenient to make a “year in review” post. Yes, maybe I am a bit late with that, but if you think about it, January is the month when the universities have their finals and exhibitions so I am not that late afterall.

13th of January Last year we started to design a  Hommage à Hermann Zapf exhibition as a school project. But later we realized, that this is a way too big project for the three of us. So instead of building huge installations and blowing up the building, we’ve created a more traditional looking event on the final exhibition.

14th of January The countdown has begun, my degree theme is the redesign of IPM magazine.

17th of February From the ashes of deep space Japetus has born, which is our half-fictional band with Gergő! From its first tectonic activity we managed to get some interesting material, check it out! 

23th of February Interview on Phenomenon.hu

24th of February The first test prints of my degree project, fresh out from the Xerox.

3rd of March Interviewon Neigbourart

11th of March We had our first MA degree approval presentation.

March My book titled Apollo Space Program won 2016′s Molnár István award!

April I have finally made another mockup of my degree. I simplified it a lot, compared to the first one I made.

5th of May I have finished my degree project and I have submited my ma degree thesis.

19th of May I have worked on an exhibition titled Gothic in the Monastery of Pilis – Andrew II’s French Relations since February, you can view it from 19th of May until 31th of July!

2th of June  I have successfully defended my MA degree! Big happiness. And at the same time big sadness, bacuse I have left Sopron in the same month.

July I have earned the 3rd place of a competition. The contest was set by MITTE and the task was to create a logo and a catalog spread for a fictional design museum. Strangely enough they hired me as a Graphic desgner to the Company.

August – September – Oktober In the meantime I am working my ass off at my job.

September My book entitled Apollo Space Program has been selected among the 45 finalists for the ArtHungry award! I have exhibited my MA degree on the Hungarian Design Award.

24th of Oktober I have quit my job to start my own freelancing carrier. 

November  I designed a couch for our home and Balázs Botos gave me all the help I needed to assemble this beast. We still need the cushions, which will be done hopefully in February. I have exhibited my work on the Hungarian Graphic design Biennale.

15th of November I had the honor to open Ján’s exhibition at Szikla öt gallery (Szikla öt means Stone five) which is located in our former teacher’s, György Szeifert’s living room. If you know Ján, and speak hungarian, check out my speech here ←

December In december I have made a stamp for Antal Labozár, who helped me with some of my woodworking projects.

[silviajburke]

The Coming Gold “Break Out”

This post The Coming Gold “Break Out” appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

Gold has conducted what some are calling a “stealth rally” over the past month.

After bottoming at $1,206 per ounce on July 10, gold is at $1,286 this morning, a healthy 6.5% gain in just over one month.

The has been welcome relief for gold investors after a series of “flash crashes” on June 14, June 26 and July 3 contributed to a gold drawdown from $1,294 per ounce to $1,206 per ounce between June 6 and July 10. At that point it looked as though gold might fall through technical resistance and tumble to the $1,150 per ounce range.

But the new rally restored the upward momentum in gold we have seen since the post-election low on Dec. 15, 2016. Gold seems poised to resume its march to $1,300 after the paper gold bear raids of late June.

The physical fundamentals are stronger than ever for gold. Russia and China continue to be huge buyers. China bans export of its 450 tons per year of physical production.

Gold refiners are working around the clock and cannot meet demand. Gold refiners are also having difficulty finding gold to refine as mining output, official bullion sales and scrap inflows all remain weak.

Private bullion continues to migrate from bank vaults at UBS and Credit Suisse into nonbank vaults at Brinks and Loomis, thus reducing the floating supply available for bank unallocated gold sales.

In other words, the physical supply situation is tight as a drum.

The problem, of course, is unlimited selling in “paper” gold markets such as the Comex gold futures and similar instruments.

One of the flash crashes was precipitated by the instantaneous sale of gold futures contracts equal in underlying amount to 60 tons of physical gold. The largest bullion banks in the world could not source 60 tons of physical gold if they had months to do it.

There’s just not that much gold available. But in the paper gold market, there’s no limit on size, so anything goes.

There’s no sense complaining about this situation. It is what it is, and it won’t be broken up anytime soon. The main source of comfort is knowing that fundamentals always win in the long run even if there are temporary reversals. What you need to do is be patient, stay the course and buy strategically when the drawdowns emerge.

Where do we go from here?

August and September are traditionally strong seasonal periods for gold. This is partly due to proximity to the wedding and gift season in India, when strong buying prevails.

Yet there’s more to the gold demand story this year.

Deteriorating relations between the U.S. and Russia will only accelerate Russia’s efforts to diversify its reserves away from dollar assets (which can be frozen by the U.S. on a moment’s notice) to gold assets, which are immune to asset freezes and seizures.

The countdown to war with North Korea has begun. A U.S. attack on the North Korean nuclear and missile weapons programs is likely by mid-2018. The stock market may not have noticed, but the gold market has. This is part of the reason for recent gold strength.

Finally, we have to deal with our friends at the Fed. The strong jobs report on Friday, Aug. 4, gave life to the view that the Fed would raise interest rates at least one more time this year. Rate hikes make the dollar stronger and are a head wind for the dollar price of gold.

But the Fed will not hike rates again this year. Once the market wakes up to the reality of a prolonged “pause” by the Fed, they will conclude correctly that the Fed is once again attempting to ease by “forward guidance.” This relative ease will keep the dollar on its downward trend and be a boost to the dollar price of gold.

The Fed will not hike rates regardless of the strong jobs report. The reason is that strong job growth was “mission accomplished” for the Fed over a year ago. Jobs are not the determining factor in Fed rate decisions today. The determining factor is disinflation.

The Fed’s main inflation metric has been moving in the wrong direction since January. The readings on the core PCE deflator year over year (the Fed’s preferred metric) were:

January 1.9% February 1.9% March 1.6% April 1.6% May 1.5% June 1.5%

The July data will not be available until early September.

The Fed’s target rate for this metric is 2%. It will take a sustained increase over several months for the Fed to conclude that inflation is back on track to meet the Fed’s goal.

There’s no chance of this happening before the Fed’s September meeting. It’s unlikely to happen before December, because of weakness in auto sales, retail sales, discretionary spending and consumer credit.

A weak dollar is the Fed’s only chance for more inflation. The way to get a weak dollar is to delay rate hikes indefinitely, and that’s what the Fed will do.

And a weak dollar means a higher dollar price for gold.

Current levels look like the last stop before $1,300 per ounce gold. After that, a price surge is likely as buyers jump on the bandwagon, and then it’s up, up and away.

There’s an old saying that “a picture is worth a thousand words.” This chart is a good example of why that’s true:

Gold analyst Eddie Van Der Walt produced this 10-year chart for the dollar price of gold showing that gold prices have been converging into a narrow tunnel between two price trends — one trending higher and one lower — for the past six years.

This pattern has been especially pronounced since 2015. You can see gold has traded up and down in a range between $1,050 and $1,380 per ounce. The upper trend line and the lower trend line converge into a funnel.

Since gold will not remain in that funnel much longer (because it converges to a fixed price) gold will likely “break out” to the upside or downside, typically with a huge move that disrupts the pattern.

At the extreme, this could imply a gold price on its way to $1,800 or $800 per ounce. Which will it be?

The evidence overwhelmingly supports the thesis that gold will break out to the upside. Central banks are determined to get more inflation and will flip to easing policies if that’s what it takes.

Geopolitical risks are piling up from North Korea, to Syria, to the South China Sea and beyond.

The failure of the Trump agenda has put the stock market on edge and a substantial market correction may be in the cards.

Acute shortages of physical gold have set the stage for a delivery failure or a short squeeze.

Any one of these developments is enough to send gold soaring in response to a panic or as part of a flight to quality. The only force that could take gold lower is deflation, and that is the one thing central banks will never allow. The above chart is one of the most powerful bullish indicators I’ve ever seen.

Get ready for an explosion to the upside in the dollar price of gold. Make sure you have your physical gold and gold mining shares before the breakout begins.

Regards,

Jim Rickards for The Daily Reckoning

The post The Coming Gold “Break Out” appeared first on Daily Reckoning.