#except ecuador on sunday
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Y'know since this WC began every single NT I'm rooting for has either lost or the game ended up in a draw so idk
#except ecuador on sunday#im not counting senegal x netherlsnds and argentina x sa bc i technically didnt watch these#wc2022#might as well root for brazil tomorrow then 💀
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24OCT24 (23:25) It’s official now: "Power Outage Schedule Changes to 14 Hours Daily Across Ecuador Due to Electrical Crisis
The Ministry of Energy has rescheduled power outage hours nationwide due to changing climate conditions and the situation at the Mazar reservoir.
The government had anticipated reducing the current eight-hour daily power cuts, prompted by Ecuador’s worst drought in six decades, to four hours daily by November. However, this reduction will no longer be possible.
On October 24, the Ministry of Energy confirmed that the blackout schedules will be extended due to the critical situation of the Mazar reservoir, essential for electricity generation.
Acting Energy Minister Inés Manzano announced that the new schedules will now be 14 hours daily.
“We are facing a dynamic and unprecedented crisis that requires adapting to changing scenarios. For this reason, we have made the difficult but responsible decision to adjust the rationing plan, increasing outages from 8 to 14 hours per day, with a review scheduled for Sunday,” said Manzano.
“This tough decision is based on the severe climate conditions affecting all of South America, as we face an unprecedented drought, with Ecuador being no exception. Many countries are experiencing power cuts, and we’ve all seen with astonishment the images of a dry Amazon River.”
“The main issue is the historically low water levels, as seen at Mazar and Coca Codo Sinclair. We understand the frustration this may cause in your personal and professional life, but it’s important for you to know this is a transparent and responsible decision in the current situation the country is facing.”-
https://www.primicias.ec/economia/horarios-cortes-luz-cambios-ecuador-reprogramacion-crisis-electrica-81937/
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Monday, September 4, 2023
Trapped in Mud, Burning Man Attendees Are Told to Conserve Food (NYT) Tens of thousands of attendees at the Burning Man festival in a remote stretch of the Black Rock Desert in Nevada were told on Saturday to conserve food, water and fuel after heavy rainfall trapped them in thick mud. The event, which takes place in Black Rock City and began on Sunday, was interrupted by heavy rains on Friday night, and organizers directed attendees to shelter in place as rain poured over the area. Except for emergency services, vehicles have also been prohibited around Black Rock City. Festivalgoers could be trapped for several days, organizers said. Black Rock City is a temporary community that pops up each year in the middle of a vast desert known as “the playa” for Burning Man. The makeshift town hosts more than 60,000 people every year and is a three-hour drive from the nearest airport, which is more than 100 miles away in Reno.
Dinosaur-dressing Mexican senator adds bite to presidential race (Reuters) When Xochitl Galvez lumbered onto the floor of Mexico’s Senate last December dressed in an inflatable green dinosaur suit to protest a ruling party bill, even the flustered leader of the upper house trying to rebuke her could not suppress a smile. The stunt by Galvez, who crashed the rostrum holding a card reading “Jurassic Plan” to criticize legislation from the ruling leftist National Regeneration Movement (MORENA) as retrograde, is one of many that made her famous before she won the 2024 presidential candidacy of the main opposition alliance this week. Her snubs to convention, gift for political theater and ability to connect with voters are traits that echo President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, an anti-establishment veteran who was finally elected in 2018.
Why Did a Drug Gang Kill 43 Students? Text Messages Hold Clues. (NYT) It is perhaps Mexico’s most notorious cold case—43 college students shot at by the police, forced into patrol cars, handed over to a drug cartel and never seen again. How could a relatively unknown gang pull off one of the worst atrocities in Mexico’s recent history? A vast trove of about 23,000 unpublished text messages, witness testimony and investigative files obtained by The New York Times point to an answer: Just about every arm of government in that part of southern Mexico had been secretly working for the criminal group for months, putting the machinery of the state in the cartel’s hands and flattening any obstacle that got in its way. The police commanders whose officers snatched many of the students that night in 2014 had been taking direct orders from the drug traffickers, the text messages show. One of the commanders gave guns to cartel members, while another hunted down their rivals on command. The military, which closely monitored the abduction but never came to the students’ aid, had been showered with cartel bribes, too. One lieutenant even armed gunmen connected to the cartel and, a witness said, helped the police try to cover up their role in the crime after the students were kidnapped and killed. The government’s subservience is what made the mass killing of 43 college students possible, investigators say. A coroner also did the cartel’s bidding, sending photos of corpses and evidence at crime scenes, the messages show.
Ecuador says 57 guards and police officers are released after being held hostage in several prisons (AP) Ecuadorian authorities announced Friday the release of 50 guards and seven police officers who were taken hostage for more than a day, in what the government described as a response by criminal groups to its efforts to regain control of several large correctional facilities in the South American country. The country’s corrections system, the National Service for Attention to Persons Deprived of Liberty, said in a statement that the 57 law enforcement officers —who were held in six different prisons—are safe, but it didn’t offer details about how they were released. Early Friday, criminal groups in Ecuador used explosives to damage a bridge, the latest in a series of attacks this week. Nobody was injured in the explosion. Government officials have described the violent acts as the work of criminal gangs with members in prisons responding to efforts by authorities to retake control of several penitentiaries by relocating inmates, seizing weapons and other steps.
How wildfires are threatening the Mediterranean way of life (Washington Post) As flames approached the 19th century Monastery of Panagia Ipseni, the nuns inside steeled themselves. In what seemed like minutes, superheated gyres engulfed the workshop where the sisters labored over icons of Saint Meletios and the Virgin and Child. Smoke filled the monastery’s mosaicked courtyards. The olive orchards and vineyards that provided their livelihood erupted in flames. In a summer of megafires across the northern hemisphere, the Mediterranean region is confronting what from on the ground has seemed an existential threat. A toxic mix of extreme heat and drought, together with human malice or carelessness, has set the region ablaze, costing dozens of lives and untold millions in damage. Wildfires—some record size—have been turning virgin forests into preternatural moonscapes and trigging mass evacuations of developed areas. Fires are threatening cultural heritage, too, in a part of the world known as much for the ruins of ancient civilization as the joys of the modern vacation. Even as summer comes to a close, the fires are still burning. In Sicily, a blaze destroyed the 15th century Santa Maria di Gesù church, turning an ancient wooden statue of the Virgin Mary into a singed log and consuming the 434-year-old remains of St. Benedict the Moor. In Spain’s Canary Islands last month, 26,000 people on Tenerife had to evacuate their homes as fires raged out of control.
A Brutal Path Forward, Village by Village (NYT) The mission for the Ukrainian unit was to take a single house, in a village that is only a speck on the map but was serving as a stronghold for Russian soldiers. Andriy, a veteran marine, had waited for three days with his small assault team as other Ukrainian units crawled through minefields, stormed trenches and cleared a path to the farming village of Urozhaine. Finally, one day last month, the order came to move. They raced to a predetermined location in an armored personnel carrier, and disembarked as explosions and gunfire rattled the ground beneath their feet, Andriy and members of his unit said. Driving out or killing the remaining Russians, they secured the house as night fell. In the morning, the new order came: Take another house. The monthslong campaign to breach heavily fortified Russian lines is being conducted in many domains and in many forms of battle. But the engine driving the effort are hundreds of small-scale assault groups, often just eight to 10 soldiers, each tasked with attacking a single trench, tree line or house. Daily success is measured in yards rather than miles. But dozens of these assaults have been raging daily for weeks and, taken together, they are adding up to gains that Ukraine says will pose increasing problems for overstretched Russian forces.
Typhoon Haikui barrels into Taiwan (Reuters) Domestic flights were cancelled and almost 4,000 people were evacuated as Typhoon Haikui barrelled into southeastern Taiwan on Sunday bringing torrential rain and strong winds. Haikui made landfall in the mountainous and sparsely populated far southeast of Taiwan mid-Sunday afternoon, the first typhoon to directly hit Taiwan in four years. Counties and cities in the region cancelled classes and declared a day off for workers.
More than 150 injured in clash at Eritrean Embassy event in Tel Aviv (Washington Post) More than 150 Eritrean asylum seekers and dozens of police were injured Saturday in Tel Aviv after demonstrations outside an event sponsored by the Eritrean Embassy turned violent, Israeli officials said. The melee was the latest violence to break out at global festivals to celebrate 30 years of Eritrean independence but which have sparked fury among the opponents of longtime Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, one of the most repressive leaders in the world. Israeli police in riot gear and on horseback struggled to disperse crowds as rioters broke store windows, grappled with officers and smashed vehicle windshields. At least 16 of the protesters suffered serious injuries in the brawl, according to Israeli media. A hospital said it was treating 11 gunshot victims. Police used rubber bullets and stun grenades to quell the violence, and officials advised residents to avoid the area in central Tel Aviv. The Israeli emergency medical service said it was holding a special blood drive at two hospitals in the city to treat the wounded. Most of the Eritreans were refugees and asylum seekers who fled forced conscription and repression in the East African country, which Afwerki has led since its independence from Ethiopia in 1993. Some Afwerki supporters were reportedly at the scene, fighting with government opponents.
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Memories…
Today FB reminded me of an old post about my late unforgettable Cricket the Cat. Cricket developed something like a cult following in the town aI live in, on the account of being huge and also, let’s face it, fat. One Sunday I had 8-9 people at my gate; the whole family plus novios and novias. They came to visit Cricket and take pictures with him. They did, thanked me and left. Then the crew working on building a porch/veranda asked one day:
”Está ocupado el gato?” (Is the cat busy?). Cricket was the least busy cat in Ecuador, so he posed to photos again.
Haru is probably even bigger, but few people know him. He very anti-socially hides in a bush of Pampa grass at the first sign of strangers with the exception of Sr. Pedro and Auntie Judy.
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14MAY24- "In the last three days from Friday to Monday, May 13, there have been four massacres that left more than 20 people murdered. The crimes have been concentrated in three coastal provinces, where violence does not let up: Manabí, Guayas and Santa Elena.
These are the same provinces that were among the five that President Daniel Noboa included in the state of exception , decreed on April 30. The argument behind the measure focused on the need to address the increase in violence, although without providing further details in this regard. El Oro and Los Ríos were also on the list. However, on May 10, the Constitutional Court did not endorse the decree and declared it unconstitutional.
READ: Former police commanders in Ecuador linked to controversies and alleged corruption
This occurs in a context in which the Government affirms that homicides have decreased. Last week, the Minister of the Interior, Mónica Palencia, in an interview on Contacto Directo assured that there had been a 26% reduction in violent deaths compared to the previous year, which is true in general terms. However, why does violence persist in certain provinces? Here the details.
Flourish logoA Flourish chart
VIOLENCE PERSISTS ON THE COASTAL PROFILE, THE DRUG ROUTE
If we compare the evolution of violent deaths until May 2023 and 2024, the results agree with those provided by the Minister of the Interior: a slight reduction has been observed, minus 17%. Until this month last year, 2,548 violent deaths were recorded in Ecuador. In contrast, this year, to date, 2,094 homicides have been reported nationwide.
However, provinces like Manabí show a less encouraging trend. In recent days, there has been a significant increase in violence.
In a period of just 24 hours , two massacres were recorded that left a tragic death toll of eight victims . On Sunday, during the celebration of Mother's Day, the first event occurred in Tosagua , where four people lost their lives when a group of individuals opened fire inside a beauty salon in the center of the canton.
READ: First year of the GAD: four mayors murdered, one fined and several political twists
On Monday, the violence continued in the province with another incident. Four men were shot outside a mechanical workshop in Manta. Authorities found 28 bullet casings at the scene, evidence of the violent attack.
With this, the province has a total of 309 violent deaths, exceeding the 276 registered in the same period of the previous year.
A similar episode occurs in the province of Santa Elena, where early this Saturday, May 11, eight people were murdered in an armed attack at the El Ídolo bar in the Pechiche compound, in the Chanduy parish.
According to local media , with this massacre there are 76 violent deaths so far this year in the peninsular province. While until this date in 2023, 71 homicides were recorded.
On Sunday, in addition to the massacre in Tosagua, another was also recorded in the canton of Daule, in the province of Guayas, where five people were murdered. Among the victims were a man and his son, who were traveling on a bicycle.
Although until April, the province of Guayas did register a significant reduction in violent deaths from 925 to 791, there is a common factor that these provinces share, they are all located on the coast.
READ: The list of the government's military objectives raises questions
According to Jean Paúl Pinto, a specialist in security and intelligence issues, the coastal area has become the epicenter of violence due to its relevance as an entry and exit route for drugs. "What it tells us is that the business continues and does not stop," says Pinto.
"In this period, we have observed an increase in the fight for territorial control. The business continues to be profitable, and it is precisely in these areas where the killings are concentrated," adds the expert.
In recent statements, Minister Palencia highlighted that, despite the fact that the Constitutional Court did not approve the new state of exception, the Police are implementing other strategies to combat the violence that persists in these territories:
Quote
"THERE ARE FIVE PROVINCES THAT CONTINUE TO PRESENT PRIORITY PROBLEMS, WHICH WERE THE ONES THAT THE PRESIDENT HAD DECLARED IN A STATE OF EMERGENCY. NOW THAT WE DO NOT HAVE THIS TOOL, WE ARE WORKING HARD ON INVESTIGATIONS, EXCHANGE OF INFORMATION AND THE CONFIGURATION OF TWO GROUPS (FICE AND FIAC), PALENCIA.
What explains the new massacres is a resurgence of violence, which according to the expert, reaffirms that the apparent period of calm that followed the declaration of the internal armed conflict was only temporary.
Regarding militarization, according to Pinto, this has not been a lasting solution to reduce violence in these provinces. He points out that security problems are structural and that, as long as no project is started to alleviate unemployment and the lack of access to education for young people, increases in violence will continue."
https://www.ecuavisa.com/la-noticia-a-fondo/violencia-persiste-cuatro-masacres-en-una-semana-perfil-costanero-GC7316811
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Wednesday, February 24, 2021
First Arctic Navigation in February (Bloomberg) A tanker sailed through Arctic sea ice in February for the first time, the latest sign of how quickly the pace of climate change is accelerating in the Earth’s northernmost regions. The Christophe de Margerie was accompanied by the nuclear-powered 50 Let Pobedy icebreaker as it sailed back to Russia this month after carrying liquified natural gas to China through the Northern Sea Route in January. Both trips broke navigation records. The experimental voyage happened after a year of extraordinarily warm conditions in the Arctic that have sent shockwaves across the world, from the snowstorm that blanketed Spain in January to the blast of cold air that swept through Canada in mid-February, moving deep into the South as far as Texas. The Arctic is warming more than twice as quickly as the rest of the world and the area covered by ice there has reached historic lows multiple times over the past 12 months. The melting in the region is already in line with the worst-case climate scenarios outlined by scientists.
Biden mourns 500,000 dead, balancing nation’s grief and hope (AP) With sunset remarks and a national moment of silence, President Joe Biden on Monday confronted head-on the country’s once-unimaginable loss—half a million Americans in the COVID-19 pandemic—as he tried to strike a balance between mourning and hope. “We often hear people described as ordinary Americans. There’s no such thing,” he said Monday evening. “There’s nothing ordinary about them. The people we lost were extraordinary.” The president, who lost his first wife and baby daughter in a car collision and later an adult son to brain cancer, leavened the grief with a message of hope. “This nation will smile again. This nation will know sunny days again. This nation will know joy again. And as we do, we’ll remember each person we’ve lost, the lives they lived, the loved ones they left behind.” He said, “We have to resist becoming numb to the sorrow. We have to resist viewing each life as a statistic or a blur or, on the news. We must do so to honor the dead. But, equally important, to care for the living.”
Texans Needed Food and Comfort After a Brutal Storm. As Usual, They Found It at H-E-B. (NYT) The past week had been a nightmare. A winter storm, one of the worst to hit Texas in a generation, robbed Lanita Generous of power, heat and water in her home. The food she had stored in her refrigerator and freezer had spoiled. She was down to her final five bottles of water. But on Sunday, as the sun shined and ice thawed in Austin, Ms. Generous did the same thing as many Texans in urgent need of food, water and a sense of normalcy: She went to H-E-B. “They’ve been great,” she said, adding with just a touch of hyperbole: “If it hadn’t been for the bread and peanut butter, I would have died in my apartment.” H-E-B is a grocery store chain. But it is also more than that. People buy T-shirts that say “H-E-B for President,” and they post videos to TikTok declaring their love, like the woman clutching a small bouquet of flowers handed to her by an employee: “I wish I had a boyfriend like H-E-B. Always there. Gives me flowers. Feeds me.” For many Texans, H-E-B reflected the ways the state’s maverick spirit can flourish: reliable for routine visits but particularly in a time of disaster, and a belief that the family-owned chain—with a vast majority of its more than 340 locations inside state lines—has made a conscious choice to stay rooted to the idea of being a good neighbor. “It’s like H-E-B is the moral center of Texas,” said Stephen Harrigan, a novelist and journalist who lives in Austin. “There seems to be in our state a lack of real leadership, a lack of real efficiency, on the political level. But on the business level, when it comes to a grocery store, all of those things are in place.”
Hunger in Central America skyrockets, U.N. agency says (Reuters) The number of people going hungry in El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua has nearly quadrupled in the last two years, the United Nations said on Tuesday, as Central America has been battered by an economic crisis. New data released by the UN’s World Food Program (WFP) showed nearly 8 million people across the four countries are experiencing hunger this year, up from 2.2 million in 2018. “The COVID-19-induced economic crisis had already put food on the market shelves out of reach for the most vulnerable people when the twin hurricanes Eta and Iota battered them further,” Miguel Barreto, WFP Regional Director for Latin America and the Caribbean, said in a statement.
Prison riots in Ecuador leave 62 dead (AP) Sixty-two inmates have died in riots at prisons in three cities in Ecuador as a result of fights between rival gangs and an escape attempt, authorities said Tuesday. Prisons Director Edmundo Moncayo said in a news conference that 800 police offices have been helping to regain control of the facilities. Hundreds of officers from tactical units had been deployed since the clashes broke out late Monday. Moncayo said that two groups were trying to gain “criminal leadership within the detention centers” and that the clashes were precipitated by a search for weapons carried out Monday by police officers.
Mount Etna eruption lights up Sicily's night sky (BBC) Mount Etna is erupting again, and its hot lava fountains are illuminating the Sicilian sky. The eruption began earlier this week, and Etna has since been spewing massive orange plumes of smoke and thick clouds of ash. Etna is Europe's most active volcano, and it erupts relatively often. The last major eruption was in 1992. Its eruptions have rarely caused damage or injury in recent decades - and officials believe this eruption is no exception. Stefano Branco, the head of the National Institute for Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV) in the nearby city of Catania, told Italian news agency AGI earlier this week: "We've seen worse."
Cow science (Foreign Policy) A new national exam on cows developed by the Indian government-backed National Cow Commission has been shelved following controversy over its less-than-scientific contents. The curriculum for the test involved erroneous claims about the virtues of Indian cows that were widely ridiculed by the country’s scientific community. Among the “facts” on display: That Indian cows have a special “solar pulse” in their humps which can supposedly convert sun rays into vitamin D that is then passed on to milk, and an assertion that Indian cows are “strong” whereas foreign cows are “lazy.” The issue of cows, considered sacred by Hindus, and their treatment has become even more of a cultural wedge issue in India following the rise of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist government, with sometimes deadly results. Attacks by vigilante “cow protection” groups killed 44 people between 2015 and 2018 according to Human Rights Watch, with Muslims among the majority of those targeted.
Japan creates Minister of Loneliness to fight COVID-19 suicides (New York Post) Japan just appointed a Minister of Loneliness—to try to combat its exploding suicide rate amid COVID-19. Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga named Tetsushi Sakamoto, a cabinet member already trying to beef up the depressed country’s birthrate, to the post. Suga noted earlier this month that Japanese women, in particular, have been struggling with depression since the coronavirus pandemic began about a year ago—with nearly 880 female suicide victims in the country alone in October, a 70 percent increase over the year before, the BBC reported. Japanese suicide expert Michiko Ueda told the BBC that part of the problem involves an increasing number of single women in the country who don’t have stable employment. “A lot of women are not married anymore,” she said. “They have to support their own lives, and they don’t have permanent jobs.”
Facebook Strikes Deal to Restore News Sharing in Australia (NYT) Facebook said on Monday that it would restore the sharing and viewing of news links in Australia after gaining more time to negotiate over a proposed law that would require it to pay for news content that appears on its site. The social network had blocked news links in Australia last week as the new law neared passage. The legislation includes a code of conduct that would allow media companies to bargain individually or collectively with digital platforms over the value of their news content. Facebook had vigorously objected to the code, which would curb its power and drive up its spending for content, as well as setting a precedent for other governments to follow. The company had argued that news would not be worth the hassle in Australia if the bill became law. But on Monday, Facebook returned to the negotiating table after the Australian government granted a few minor concessions.
U.S.-Saudi ties (Foreign Policy) The families of the three U.S. service members killed and 13 others injured by Mohammed Alshamrani, a Saudi airman who went on a shooting spree at Naval Air Station Pensacola in 2019, are suing Saudi Arabia’s government, alleging that the kingdom failed to screen him appropriately before sending him to the United States for training. The families are filing the lawsuit against Saudi Arabia based on a 2016 law that allows U.S. citizens to sue foreign governments over terrorist attacks—legislation that was initially passed in order to allow the families of 9/11 victims to bring a civil suit against Saudi Arabia.
Italian Ambassador Among Three Killed in Attack on U.N. Convoy in Congo (NYT) For Luca Attanasio, Italy’s ambassador to the Democratic Republic of Congo, humanitarian work was at the core of his mission. The 43-year-old had moved with his wife to the capital, Kinshasa, in 2017, where their family grew to include three young daughters. He rose to the rank of ambassador in 2019, the pinnacle of his diplomatic career. On Monday, Mr. Attanasio was among three people killed in an attack on a humanitarian convoy near the city of Goma, the World Food Program and Italy’s Foreign Ministry said, the latest in a wave of violence in that part of the central African nation. The deaths of Mr. Attanasio; an Italian Embassy official, named by the Foreign Ministry as Vittorio Iacovacci; and Mustapha Milambo, a driver for the World Food Program, have rattled the international diplomatic community and drawn condemnation from across the globe.
Flood damage and insurance (NPR) Right now, over 4 million houses and small apartments in the contiguous United States are at substantial risk of expensive flood damage, and the cost of flood damage to homes will increase by 50 percent over the next 30 years according to the First Street Foundation. As the climate changes, places that were perfectly safe to live in will no longer be as sure of bets as they once were, and the costs are about to be a serious reality check. The National Flood Insurance Program is $36 billion in debt because of underestimated risks. Over the next several years, FEMA plans to raise rates up to 18 percent a year until prices are accurate, starting this October.
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restrictions: This evening, President Moreno announced a state of exception (estado de excepción) and a curfew in Ecuador. The curfew will run from 21:00 to 05:00, starting Tuesday. - Starring Tuesday, interprovincial transport and domestic flights will be stopped for 14 days. - There will also be a vehicle restriction per license plate digit. Numbers with even plates will not circulate on Mondays, Wednesdays, Fridays and Sundays, odd numbers will not circulate on Tuesdays, Thursdays and Saturdays.- Mobilization would only be allowed for jobs that cannot be done from home, or to care for elderly or sick people.- Public services are closed, except for health and emergency services.- Neighborhood stores, mercados and supermarkets will remain open.
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Love Heals the Soul (Part 16) - Talk to Me
Summary: Reader finally feels comfortable opening up to Jensen...sort of.
Masterlist
Pairings: Jensen x reader, OC Jonathan
Word Count: 2335
Warnings: angst (on the reader’s part), fluffy Jensen, nothing else
Jensen dished up breakfast and sets the plates on the table while you got the silverware and drinks. “Wow, Jen, this is good,” you said, finishing off a piece of bacon. Jensen just laughed, “It’s just eggs and bacon, nothing fancy.” “I know, but I don’t have a proper breakfast all that often,” you replied, taking a bite of eggs. The two of you continued to eat in a comfortable silence.
You broke the quiet first, “So what did you have planned for today?” Jensen shrugged, “I don’t know, didn’t really plan anything. You?” You let out a laugh, “Well, I haven’t planned anything either. Maybe have a lazy day, little Netflix, maybe a nap.” “Hm, well, would you like some company today for all of your non-plans?” Jensen asked. “Sure, I’d really like that.”
The two of you finished up breakfast, and you changed, albeit into different lounging clothes, which just meant another pair of leggings and a t-shirt. You spent the next few of hours curled up on the couch watching TV, stealing kisses from each other every now and then and cuddling into him. You had even managed to get an episode of Supernatural in, Jensen telling you all the behind the scenes mishaps and shenanigans that happened. “The stories! Can we please have a marathon sometime?” You asked between laughing. “Maybe not a marathon, but sure,” Jensen quipped.
“Hey, let’s go for a walk, enjoy the air, maybe get some lunch?” you asked, looking up at him.
Jensen kissed you on your forehead, “Sure.”
---
The two of you walked around your neighborhood hand in hand for a while, with no real destination in mind. It was the kind of walk that neither one of you were leading the other, which lead you to a little playground and park area. “Hey Jen,” you started, “Do you think we could sit and talk for a minute?” “Absolutely,” he replied, squeezing your hand.
You found a park bench and sat down, pulling one leg under you so your knee was up and you were facing Jensen. “So, I’m not entirely sure what I’m going to say, how much I’m going to tell, or how much sense it’s going to make. I just need to talk. I’m sure you’ll have questions, especially after last night, but I can’t guarantee that I will answer them all today. But I will one day. I promise.”
“I’m good at listening,” he started, putting his hand on the knee that was up, “Just say what ever you’re comfortable with, I’m here.” He finished, giving your knee a squeeze and smiling kindly. You took a deep breath before starting, still not entirely sure where to start.
“So, I’ve been through some stuff. I told you some of it at the bar the other night, anxiety, a small bit about my family, a little about the scars. There’s so much more and I’m scared that you’ll hate me for it.” You felt Jensen squeeze your knee at hearing that.
“I have…had…a brother, Jonathan. He died last year in Ecuador. I told you that he was two years older than me, he was always protective of me, typical older brother,” you chuckled at the memory. “But I was just as protective of him as his younger sister. He was a doctor, pediatrician specifically. He had been on a number of trips to other countries, helping where he was needed. He had been in Ecuador for eight months following an earthquake that was there.”
You had to stop, you were doing surprisingly well, but you were quickly approaching that edge of losing it. Looking at Jensen, he just gave you a look of reassurance, telling you that you didn’t have to say anything you didn’t want to.
“I’m not sure how, but he got caught up in some trouble, or it could have been a ‘wrong-place-wrong-time’ kind of thing. The area he was in wasn’t that great, you know, cops and lawyers are all dirty and you can’t trust anyone. He called me one day...” Keep it together Y/N, you’re fine. You can talk about this. It’s Jensen. He needs to know you, and this is you.
��Jonathan said that he was in some trouble, and he didn’t quite know how it was going to turn out, like he knew how it would end but was trying to put on a brave face for me. He wouldn’t tell me anything, other than he loved me and to keep my head up, take care of mom and dad and to do good. I told him he was an idiot and that it was supposed to be ‘do well’, but he always insisted that it was ‘do good’. That was our thing, I always corrected him on it, and it took me years to understand what he was telling me.
“I felt so helpless being up here while he was 7,200 kilometers away.” You laughed to yourself. “Sorry, um…4,500 miles. Too damn far is what it was. I told him I could come help him, but he said no; it was too dangerous. Well, the little sister protective side took over and I spent a chunk of my savings on a ticket.”
You looked up at Jensen, not realizing that you had started crying until the tears running down your cheeks fell on your hands. “It was horrible. I should have listened to him, Jen, I shouldn’t have gone. But I couldn’t leave Jonathan there alone.” You were crying hard at this point, having a hard time controlling your breathing which was starting to scare you.
“Hey, Y/N, we don’t have to do this all right now. Take it slow, continue when you’re ready,” Jensen tried, seeing that you were quickly losing it. He pulled you onto his lap, your head on his shoulder and he took one of your hands and held it on his chest. “Breathe, Y/N. Breathe with me.” You understood what he was trying to tell you to do, so you tried to do it. It took a few minutes, but you were calm, although still crying softly. Jensen kissed the top of your head, “Sweetheart, I don’t want you to do this if it’s too hard on you.”
“I know. But it’s been long enough, I’ve kept it inside too long.” You said quietly between hiccups of air. “I want to tell you more. I feel like I’ve been hiding this past…10 months. I want to tell you about the scars,” you had started crying a little harder again, but not to the extent that you had been. “There’s so much I want to tell you, I just don’t know how. I just want it all to go away. I’ve seen things, and I see them every night when I go to bed, I don’t know how to get them to go away.”
Jensen pulled you back into his chest, still sitting on his lap. He was rubbing your back and just holding you. He let you cry it out; let you release some of the pent up emotion that you had been carrying around. “Sweetheart, do you want me to stay tonight? I don’t mind. Maybe you can have a restful night tonight?” he said quietly. You nodded into his shoulder, you couldn’t talk yet, maybe you could, but you didn’t trust your voice; you thought for sure that once you started talking again, you’d start all of this over. This is so exhausting.
“You hungry?” Jensen asked, feeling another nod into his shoulder from you. “Let’s grab some food. Chinese? Then go back to your apartment and I can tell you all the funny business of any episodes you want to watch. Sound good?” he tried to coax you.
“Any episodes with Charlie? Except her last episode that she...you know,” you asked him. “She’s my favorite.” Not being able to help the laugh that left you.
“She is, huh? You sure about that?” Sounding playful, which made you smile. “Well then, let’s go grab some food and head back.” He held your chin up to look at him, wiping your tear stained cheeks off with the bandana he took from his back pocket. “You did good sweetheart,” kissing your forehead and hugging you, “I’m proud of you.”
---
It had been a couple weeks since the Vancouver convention. Jensen came by the café his first day back to set so that he could get coffee, making it a habit every day that the two of you worked. There were some mornings that he had such an early call time that the café wouldn’t even be open yet; but you let him in to give him his coffee. It was a sweet little routine the two of you made. He was away this weekend at a convention in Tucson, so you were missing your morning coffee dates.
Hey sweetheart, how are you doing today?
I’m ok, busy with work. What’s up? You never did tell him why you had been working so much.
Well, Chris just emailed me a few photos from the convention. Just wanted to show them to you before they went out. I must say, I’m quite a fan of them. ;)
You waited for him to send the photos, dreading how awful and out of place you were sure you looked there. When they loaded and you clicked to enlarge them, you were shocked at what you saw. There was one of the two of you at dinner before the concert that Saturday, laughing about something in conversation with Bri and Jared; realizing that you obviously didn’t notice him there that night. The next one was of you and Jensen singing at the concert, your hand in his, eyes locked on each other. You could see the feeling and emotion in the picture. The last one he had sent was one you never even realized had happened. Sometime in the Chris and Briana magic that was the end of convention photos with the cast, there was one of the two of you looking at each other. To anyone else it would just look like the split second that the camera grabbed that moment in time, but what you didn’t know at the time was that every. single. person. in the frame was looking at the two of you smiling or giving lovey-dovey looks. Well, everyone except for Jared, who just had his face squished up in a look of mock disgust. You could almost hear him saying something about you two getting a room. He’s such a weirdo. But you had to laugh out loud to yourself.
OMG. Jen, these are amazing. I love them!
Me too. He has more coming; I’ll let you know when they’re ready.
Thanks babe. I’m really missing you by the way. :(
Are you ok? I fly in Sunday late afternoon, I can stop by after I get in if you want me to.
I’m ok, only if you’re up to it. I know you’ve been super busy lately and probably want to just relax.
Well of course, but it’s always more relaxing being with you. And besides, I’m off Monday, so I don’t have to be anywhere.
Perfect. I can take that Monday off too. It’s a date.
Haha. Sounds good. I need to go out for our panel now. Love you baby.
Love you too
---
Jensen was home for a couple weeks after being in Tucson. It had been nice having him back in Vancouver, stopping in for his morning coffee before work, staying over more often and you even staying a few nights here and there at his place. You noticed that your sleep had actually gotten better having him there, which was a really nice feeling; you had forgotten what good sleep was like.
---
Well this sucks. “Y/N? Are you listening?” Jensen asked you a few nights after getting back. You had been listening, but you didn’t want to hear it, because he was just saying that he had to be gone again. The two of you were sitting on the couch at his house watching TV when he had told you that they had to go do their European tour in just over a week. You grumbled, “Yeah, I’m listening,” you said, not really trying to make it sound as childish and pathetic as it came out. “I’m sorry Jen, I’m not mad, I just…I don’t know,” you said before burying your head in his side.
“It’s ok Y/N, I get it, the convention schedule sucks sometimes but we’re almost done. Then we have a few months off that we can do whatever we want. How does that sound?” He asked you, running his fingers through your loose hair. You nodded into him, making a mental note that you would have to figure out the schedule for the café, knowing they would be fine without you for a while once he was back.
The time you had left before their tour flew by, between the two of you working and him getting ready to be gone for three weeks. The weeks had been long since you weren’t able to spend time together. Of course the two of you called, texted and Face Timed, but it just wasn’t the same as being together. He made sure to call every night, despite what he had going on or the time differences, he had even called you during a panel one night, just to make sure the two of you talked.
As the days went on, sleep got worse. You were ok for about the first week of Jensen being gone, but it was downhill from there. Briana was with them, so you didn’t have her to call to hang out with either. Yep, this tour still sucks, I can’t wait until he’s home at the end of the week. It’s almost…ugh. I just don’t want to be alone.
Tags: @maralisa124 @somilotopia @delightfullykrispypeach @steffiemeheus @lizwinchester16 @spn-dean-and-sam-winchester @mystrie @supernatural-lover-teamfreewill @cats-are-untrustworthy @superromijn @gifsforgomez @sherlock44 @life-through-the-lenss @1233088 @fandomloveyeah @allonsy-yesiwill @amomentintime @justforsavingfics @headingforthe-target-of-insanity @ocean-waves-that-misbehave @justfloatingthroughtime @xuglyduckling @hobby27 @musiclovinchic93
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Hundreds of indigenous enter Ecuador capital Quito
Hundreds of indigenous enter Ecuador capital Quito
QUITO: Hundreds of indigenous people entered Ecuador‘s capital Quito on Sunday, following almost a week of protests against the economic and social policies of President Guillermo Lassowho has not been able to lift road blocks and violence across the country. Indigen province arrived in trucks, cars, and on foot amid a state of exception declared by Lasso in threes – including that of Quito – in…
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For most of the year, New York's time zone is behind the United Kingdom's by how many hours?
The time difference between New York and the UK is usually 5 hours. For half of the year, the UK's timezone is known as UTC (Universal Time Coordinated), except during the summer when the clocks are moved forward one hour. At this point, the time zone becomes UTC+1. New York, on the other hand, is located in the UTC-5 time zone, meaning it is 5 hours behind any country in UTC, for instance, the UK. During the summer, New York also moves the clocks forward one hour, bringing them into the UTC-4 time zone.
There are three weeks a year when the time difference between the UK and New York is only 4 hours. This is due to the different dates the UK and USA change their clocks. In March, the USA turn their clocks forward one hour on the second Sunday of the month, whereas the UK do this on the fourth Sunday. Similarly, on the last Sunday of October, the UK turn their clocks back one hour, but the USA does not do this until the first Sunday in November.
The UK is not the only country in the UTC time zone. Burundi, the Ivory Coast, the Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Iceland, Ireland, Liberia, Mali, Mauritania, Portugal, Sao Tome and Principe, Senegal, Sierra Leone and Togo, are all located in the UTC time zone.
UTC-5 is also known as Eastern Time and encompasses 23 states of America. The Bahamas, parts of Brazil, Colombia, Cuba, Ecuador, Haiti, Jamaica, Panama and Peru all share the same time zone as New York.
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Headlines
Historic blast of polar vortex sets scores of records, scatters rare May snow in Eastern U.S. (Washington Post) A blast of Arctic air marched south across the eastern Lower 48 to start the weekend, bringing winterlike temperatures to millions of people and even a confetti of snowflakes. Records fell like dominoes as the icy air mass spilled south, first lapping at the Midwest before surging all the way east to the Atlantic. It’s one of the most prolific late-season cold outbreaks on record, thanks to a piece of the low-altitude polar vortex breaking off and meandering uncharacteristically far south. From Texas to Maine, record lows for May 9 fell in every state in the eastern half of the Lower 48 north of Florida. Several locations also registered their lowest May temperatures ever recorded and coldest weather this late in the season. Lows dipped into the 20s in 20 states.
A distinct possibility: ‘Temporary’ layoffs may be permanent (AP) In late March, Britney Ruby Miller, co-owner of a small chain of steakhouse restaurants, confidently proclaimed that once the viral outbreak had subsided, her company planned to recall all its laid-off workers. Now? Miller would be thrilled to eventually restore three-quarters of the roughly 600 workers her company had to let go. “I’m being realistic,” she said. “Bringing back 75% of our staff would be incredible.” Call it realism or pessimism, but more employers are coming to a reluctant conclusion: Many of the employees they’ve had to lay off in the face of the pandemic might not be returning to their old jobs anytime soon. Some large companies won’t have enough customers to justify it. And some small businesses won’t likely survive at all despite aid provided by the federal government.
One-Third of All U.S. Coronavirus Deaths Are Nursing Home Residents or Workers (NYT) At least 27,600 residents and workers have died from the coronavirus at nursing homes and other long-term care facilities for older adults in the United States, according to a New York Times database. The virus so far has infected more than 150,000 at some 7,700 facilities. Nursing home populations are at a high risk of being infected by—and dying from—the coronavirus, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, is known to be particularly lethal to older adults with underlying health conditions, and can spread more easily through congregate facilities, where many people live in a confined environment and workers move from room to room. While just 11 percent of the country’s cases have occurred in long-term care facilities, deaths related to Covid-19 in these facilities account for more than a third of the country’s pandemic fatalities.
Coronavirus shuts the Mexican beer industry down, and the country is running dry (Washington Post) During the bone-dry days of Prohibition, Americans slipped over the border to guzzle beer in Mexico. A century later, Mexican towns are the ones going dry. The government has largely shut down beer production, saying that it is not essential during the country’s coronavirus outbreak. The last bottles of Tecate, Corona, Modelo Especial and Dos Equis for Mexican consumption rolled off the lines in early April. “Many people are desperately searching for beer,” said Raúl Funes, the head of a craft-brew association in Tijuana, just south of San Diego. “It’s like toilet paper.”
The red flags of Colombia (Washington Post) When the food supply at the community shelter had dwindled to a single package of Swiss chard, Robinson Álvarez Monroy stepped outside and hung a red scarf. Across Colombia, the red flag—or scarf, or towel, or T-shirt—has come to symbolize an urgent need for assistance. It’s a cry for help. In some places, the scarf, towel, or T-shirt has been waving for more than a month. Colombia had reported more than 10,000 cases of the coronavirus and 420 deaths as of Friday night, far fewer than South American neighbors Peru, Ecuador and Brazil. But lockdowns have devastated the region’s fragile economy, and the informal laborers who must work to eat. People in the slums say help comes from those who see the flags and stop to give them food.
Pandemic shows contrasts between US, European safety nets (AP) The coronavirus pandemic is straining social safety nets across the globe—and underlining sharp differences in approach between wealthy societies such as the United States and Europe. In Europe, the collapse in business activity is triggering wage support programs that are keeping millions on the job, for now. In contrast, in the United States more than 33.5 million people have applied for jobless benefits and the unemployment rate has soared to 14.7%. Congress has passed $2 trillion in emergency support, boosting jobless benefits and writing stimulus checks of up to $1,200 per taxpayer. That is a pattern seen in earlier economic downturns, particularly the global financial crisis and the Great Recession. Europe depends on existing programs kicking in that pump money into people’s pockets. The U.S., on the other hand, relies on Congress taking action by passing emergency stimulus programs. Economist Andre Sapir, a senior fellow at the Bruegel research institute in Brussels, said budget policy in the U.S. plays partly the role that Europe’s welfare system plays because the American welfare system is less generous and a recession can be much harsher on workers.
French parents anguish over sending children back to school (AP) As France prepares to start letting public life resume after eight weeks under a coronavirus lockdown, many parents are deeply torn over a question without a clear or correct answer: Should I send my child back to school? Due to the slow startup, as well as ongoing fears about COVID-19 in hard-hit France, school attendance will not be compulsory right away. Parents and guardians may keep children at home and teachers will provide lessons like they have during the nationwide lockdown. Returning students will find their classrooms running differently. Teachers will wear masks and remind children to social distance from each other and to wash their hands several times a day.
Italy has long been Europe’s wild card. The coronavirus has upped the risk. (Washington Post) After two months of ambulance sirens, mourning and isolation, this is the damage report from Italy: The novel coronavirus death toll has surpassed 30,000. The country is hurtling into its steepest recession in modern times. Tourism has gone bust. Many restaurants and shops lack the cash to ever reopen. The government’s brittle finances are becoming ever more stretched. All the while, many Italians feel embittered and alienated. They are disappointed in the continent’s early response to the pandemic and its fallout. Anti-European sentiment has spiked. So has the uncertainty about what might happen next in Italy’s topsy-turvy politics. Even before it was hit by one of the world’s deadliest outbreaks, Italy was seen as the wild card of Western Europe—flirting on-and-off with populism, sometimes seeming to be only one mismanaged crisis away from becoming the continent’s next Brexit or Greek-style debt disaster. Now that crisis has arrived, and what hangs in the balance is not just Italy’s stability but that of Europe, as well.
In Japan, pandemic brings outbreaks of bullying, ostracism (AP) The coronavirus in Japan has brought not just an epidemic of infections, but also an onslaught of bullying and discrimination against the sick, their families and health workers. A government campaign to raise awareness seems to be helping, at least for medical workers. But it’s made only limited headway in countering the harassment and shunning that may be discouraging people from seeking testing and care and hindering the battle against the pandemic. Apart from fear of infection, experts say the prejudice against those even indirectly associated with the illness also stems from deeply rooted ideas about purity and cleanliness in a culture that rejects anything deemed to be alien, unclean or troublesome. Medical workers risking their lives to care for patients are a main target, but people working at grocery stores, delivering parcels and carrying out other essential jobs also are facing harassment. So are their family members.
Infections rise in Asia (AP) China and South Korea reported new spikes Sunday in coronavirus cases, setting off fresh concerns in countries where outbreaks had been in dramatic decline, and new protests against pandemic restrictions erupted in Germany despite the easing of many lockdowns in Europe. Worldwide, health officials are anxiously watching to see just how much infection rates rise in a second wave as nations and states emerge from varying degrees of lockdown. Later Sunday, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson was expected to take a different tack, keeping most restrictions in place as he reveals a ‘road map’ for the future of the country that has the most official virus deaths in Europe at over 31,600.
Virus Forces Persian Gulf States to Reckon With Migrant Labor (NYT) The Kuwaiti talk show panelists were holding forth on an issue that the coronavirus has pushed to the forefront of national debate: whether their tiny, oil-rich monarchy should rely as heavily as it does on foreign laborers, who have suffered most of the country’s infections and borne much of the cost of its lockdown. “Go to malls in Kuwait—would you ever see a Kuwaiti working there?” said one guest, Ahmad Baqer. “No. They’re all different nationalities.” Not long after, a South Asian man slipped into the camera frame, serving tea to each panelist from a tray. He appeared three times during the program, his presence unacknowledged except by one panelist who waved away a fresh cup. In the Middle East’s wealthiest societies, the machinery of daily life depends on migrant laborers from Asia, Africa and poorer Arab countries—millions of “tea boys,” housemaids, doctors, construction workers, deliverymen, chefs, garbagemen, guards, hairdressers, hoteliers and more, who often outnumber the native population. They support families back home by doing the jobs citizens cannot or will not take. But as oil revenues plummet, migrant labor camps become coronavirus hot spots and citizens demand that their governments protect them first, the pandemic has prompted a reckoning with the status quo. “The two things that Gulf countries depend on the most, oil prices and foreign workers, these two have been hard hit with the coronavirus,” said Eman Alhussein, a fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. “The coronavirus has unleashed all these issues that have been put on the back burner for a long time.”
South Africa’s alcohol ban during lockdown reveals its deadly drinking habits (Washington Post) South Africa has taken some of the most drastic measures in the world to curtail the spread of the novel coronavirus, but one has generated fierce debate like no other: a ban on the sale, and even transport, of alcohol. On one side: drinkers who say their rights are being impinged on and bottle shop owners and liquor companies that are going broke. On the other: a public health system that is unburdened by thousands of monthly hospitalizations resulting from accidents and violence attributed to drunkenness. More than 5,000 fewer admissions to trauma units per week can be attributed to the alcohol ban, according to Charles Parry, director of alcohol research at the South African Medical Research Council. The council’s data also shows a decrease in excess deaths in South Africa, suggesting that the lockdown, with its alcohol ban and decrease in vehicle use, may have saved the lives of more South Africans than the 186 that the coronavirus is confirmed to have killed so far. “Instead of patching people up with stabbing wounds, nurses can focus on training how to handle covid cases,” Parry said, referencing covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus. “Based on our model, at least 15 people who would have otherwise died from alcohol-related traumas are being saved every single day.”
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Learning the Language
I’ve had limited access to Wi-Fi and communications home for the last week for one reason -- Language Camp.
After a 5 hour bus ride through towns and country roads and the generally beautiful landscape of Ecuador, I and 83 other exchange students in the country arrived at Mompiche’s Resort Hotel. Everyone got three to a room and only one key to share between them. This made for lots of group chats asking someone to let their roommates into the room while they were out socializing into the wee hours of the morning. We obtained a schedule that was barely stuck to and didn’t list locations to meet for the events and placement exam, and a whole lot of free time all in our first day. After that everyone came to the ampetheater for the the obligatory reminder speech to follow the 6 Ds: Don’t do Drugs, Don’t Drink, Don’t Drive, Don’t Date, Don’t Discotech, Don’t Download Pornography (they’ve said it’s 7 within my own hosting club-- Don’t disfigure your body i.e. no tattoos or piercings).
Once the first day was through and I’d prepared for bed only to realize I hadn’t packed any pajamas, I woke in the morning to my obnoxious watch alarm and took my usual cold shower as I hadn’t yet figured out hotels often provided hot water while homes stuck to cold. I got into the highest level Spanish group and we spent some 4 hours going over Spanish facts and structures I’d learned relatively early in my Freshman year of the language. Although it was nice to learn cabello [kab-EY-yo] is hair on the head while pelo [PEL-oh] is all hair on the body, I’d rather not waste time going over more Saludos and introductions.
Truly, the Spanish lessons were not of note as they passed with more boredom than my second day of school at Cruz del Norte. I might get lucky and learn a small technicality or slight variation from the more Mexican Spanish we learned in the United States to the Ecuadorian Spanish we learned in lessons, but it was only slight and probably something I could have found easily enough simply talking with my host family and school friends.
There was one really entertaining lesson where all 84 (I assume it was all of us, it’s not like I actually counted) students filtered into the Discotech room to listen to and sing along to ‘Despacito’ (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kJQP7kiw5Fk in case you’ve somehow escaped hearing this all over 2017′s summer). Actually looking at and reading the lyrics as everyone stumbled their way through pronunciation -- except in the ‘Pacito a pacito/ suave y suavicito’ part where they all came back with a vengeance and way too loud voices -- that song is super sensual. Just one line I managed to translate as I was reading and singing was something like ‘I want to undress you with slow kisses’. Being a bit more averse to expressing sensual opinions myself (I don’t even reveal harmless crushes to close friends because it makes me feel so weird), I’m pretty sure I blushed and awkward smiled through the two times everyone sang. Thank goodness the Discotech room was dark.
Other than Despacito, lessons felt almost completely useless. In the end, the interesting stuff was everything in between.
Despite my dislike of swimming, especially in anything wider than what I can see the opposite shore of, I ‘swam’ (more of walking and a little floating) in the ocean everyday it was an option. I even continued to do so after confirming there was wildlife out there in the form of seeing a crab close to shore and a little snake-worm-thing in a tide pool. I boogie-boarded with a Taiwanese exchange student in my club and her fellow Taiwanese student she’d met at the Language camp. I got in pictures taken by GoPros as oncoming waves lifted us from the sand. I cheered on a few crazy people that played chicken and fell down as waves pushed them back into the water.
Then there was the dancing, music, and random nightly activities. I think there might have been at least some sort of event every night for it.
The first day of lessons there was a supervised dance party on the beach that maybe 15 people, myself included surprisingly, attended. We circled up and moved animatedly if somewhat cringily to music. ‘Watch me Whip’ came on, and I know that sounds like a nightmare, but being able to share a moment with all these foreign kids where each of us knew the same dance move and when to do it was so great.
The second day there was a play (I got caught up in playing pool in ping pong and didn’t go) and the beach party again. I turned in relatively early that one, but apparently a whole bunch of people went into another student’s room. I think the story I heard was that a popular French boy knocked on the door, had it opened, said ‘Andrew’ in a sing-song, troubling voice, and then walked in with an organized line of rotary exchange students behind him. A picture ended up in the group chat of all of them sitting around the room watching the television.
Day three of lessons and we got official dance lessons, first at the beach after swimming in the ocean, then again at the pool. There’s so much movement in Regaton (I think that’s what we learned). Then there was the true party -- Karaoke. Someone found ‘Dancing Queen’ (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xFrGuyw1V8s). Someone else found ‘Gimme Gimme Gimme’ (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xFrGuyw1V8s). A few other familiar songs were sung (Vivir mi Vida, Just the Way You Are) but those two were my personal highlights. As day three’s night was to be the last night in Mompiche, the Discotech was opened and students attended with rotary supervision, even though it had been against the rules (they explained they really didn’t care too much about following the rules so long as you didn’t do drugs). I personally didn’t participate as I could understand the words of the music even through the closed door and 50 meters from the Discotech. I quite like being able to hear myself thing, and be able to hear in general.
The fifth day (we got five days, three of lessons, actual day one being Sunday to move in, day five being Thursday to move out) was meant to be for students to do whatever they wanted. Unfortunately, it rained the entire day, so a bunch of kids just waited around in the lobby, the only place with free Wi-Fi that wasn’t even good. Then we were off, saying goodbye to the quick and interesting friends that had been made but happy to see our host families and communities again.
To recap, what I truly learned at the language camp is: how to dance, ‘ich’ means ‘I’ in German, how to fold a napkin into a flower, I don’t have any idea how to boogie board, and the detailed rules of the Flag Game <--if you’ve been on Rotary Exchange you’ve heard of this, otherwise you can look it up for yourself. Like I said, I don’t even tell people about things like celebrity crushes. There’s no way I’m explaining the Flag Game.
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Qatar World Cup: Argentina travels with Messi, Brazil and Uruguay additionally win
Lionel Messi sparkled again in South American Football World Cup qualifiers on Thursday, driving Argentina with every one of the objectives in its 3-0 home success against Bolivia. In the interim chiefs, Brazil depended on Neymar to get its eighth success in eight matches, a simple 2-0 triumph over Peru.
Fans from all over the world are called to book Football world Cup tickets from our online platforms WorldWideTicketsandHospitality.com. Football World Cup fans can book Argentina Football World Cup Tickets on our website at exclusively discounted prices.
Brazil has 24 focuses and second-place Argentina 18, the two with eight matches played, one not exactly different opponents after their superclasico on Sunday was suspended because of crown different conventions. FIFA still can't seem to choose whether that match will be replayed. Prior Uruguay had a 1-0 triumph over Ecuador to move into the third put on the table.
South American Football World Cup qualifiers are planned to have one more three rounds in October, which could trigger one more conflict with European clubs that don't need their players to venture out to the district because of requests for isolation upon their return. With the exception of Argentina and Colombia, no South American group figured out how to bring their Premier League players for the worldwide window.
The top four groups in South American qualifiers get automatic seats in the Football World Cup in Qatar the following year, while the fifth-place group will compete in an intercontinental season finisher. For more to know about Football World Cup Tickets Click here
ARGENTINA 3, BOLIVIA 0
Scarcely any normal Argentina not to journey against 10th spot Bolivia at the Monumental Stadium in Buenos Aires, even after the group lost four England-based players for the experience; goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez, safeguard Cristian Romero, midfielder Giovanni Lo Celso and winger Emiliano Buendia have as of now returned.
In any event, Messi had a big impact – his entire career made him the best worldwide scorer in South American football. The 34-year-old has 79 out of 153 covers for Argentina, surpassing Pelé's 77 out of 92 authority matches for Brazil. Messi opened the scoring for Argentina before around 20,000 fortunate fans in the fourteenth moment.
He moved the ball between a Bolivian safeguard's legs and shot from fresh to one side of goalkeeper Carlos Lampe. In the 64th minute, he added the second with style. Messi and striker Lautaro Martinez traded four fast passes to put the six-time Ballon d'Or champ in an extraordinary position. He had he previously shot obstructed, yet had the opportunity to recover the ball and score. For more to know about Football World Cup Tickets Click here
Messi finished his full go-around in the 88th moment from short proximity in the wake of getting a bounce back from Lampe. A sorrowful Messi likewise celebrated with fans, who brought down in an Argentinian arena without precedent for a very long time because of the pandemic. He conveyed the Copa America prize won against Brazil in July, Argentina's first significant title in quite a while.
Messi is passing on an inheritance to all players of the public group, Coach Lionel Scaloni said about the record. I'm glad to have him as a player. Argentina will confront Paraguay, Uruguay, and Peru in the following three rounds of Football World Cup qualifiers.
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Predictable Insights - 4.9.21
Predictable Insights provides a unique, crowdsourced perspective at the intersection of politics and prediction markets.
Each edition includes an update on the politics driving the week that was as well as highlights from PredictIt's market analysts.
It's Friday and here are the insights we've been keeping an eye on: First, radically different tales of two Florida politicians — Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ (R) stock is rising among his party’s base, while the same can’t be said for Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL). Then we'll take a quick tour of elections around the globe. Two presidential elections happening this Sunday in Peru and Ecuador, and we'll dive into Chinese politics ahead of their 2022 party selection meeting.
This Week in the Markets
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) speaking with attendees at the 2018 Student Action Summit in West Palm Beach, Florida. Photo: Gage Skidmore / Flickr / CC BY-SA 2.0
DeSantis’ 60 Minutes Boost
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is making national headlines again this week that are no doubt helping to bolster his popularity among Republicans. Last Sunday, CBS’s 60 Minutes ran a scathing report about Florida’s vaccine rollout suggesting that DeSantis gave the Publix grocery store chain preferential treatment to distribute COVID-19 vaccines because they donated $100,000 to DeSantis’ re-election campaign.
The problem for 60 Minutes is that they didn’t have any evidence to back up this “pay-to-play” claim, and that once the full video of the DeSantis remarks that were used in the report were made public it was obvious to everyone (except CBS apparently) that their “deceptive editing” tactics were problematic. They had removed and edited parts of DeSantis’ response to questions from the 60 Minutes reporter at a press conference in which he explained the steps his government took to make the decision to partner with Publix.
Publix is the largest grocery store chain in Florida, with 831 locations, and is a known and trusted brand for Floridians – it was even ranked No. 12 on Fortune magazine’s list of 100 Best Companies to Work For in 2019. Their donation to DeSantis was also neither illegal nor unusual as many large companies donate to the political campaigns of both major parties.
Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Florida's Gov. DeSantis surpasses former President Donald Trump in the 2024 Republican presidential nominee market.
60 Minutes received a lot of blowback from Republicans across the country, but also from Florida Democrats. Palm Beach County Mayor, Dave Kerner (D), released a statement on Monday saying the 60 Minutes report was “intentionally false” and that they “should be ashamed.” Jared Moskowitz, director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management, called the report “absolute malarky,” and added the context that the reason Publix was picked as a partner instead of pharmacy chains is because they simply weren’t ready. “The federal government delayed the federal pharmacy program and we yet again stepped up first to serve more seniors.”
Publix also released a statement:
“The irresponsible suggestion that there was a connection between campaign contributions made to Gov. DeSantis and our willingness to join other pharmacies in support of the state’s vaccine distribution efforts is absolutely false and offensive.”
Republicans generally feel that the mainstream media is biased against conservative politicians and their interests, and this will definitely serve to embolden those beliefs. The incident also serves to embolden DeSantis and his reputation amongst the grassroots Republican base nationwide.
DeSantis has been gaining national notoriety for what they see as his responsible and pragmatic handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and aversion to statewide lockdowns and mandates. In February, attendees of the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) named DeSantis as their favored candidate for the 2024 presidential nomination after former President Donald Trump. And now his stock is on the rise again.
Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Who will win the 2022 Florida gubernatorial election?
Market Pulse: DeSantis has been gaining momentum ever since he was added to the 2024 Republican presidential nominee market on Jan. 20, and this week he surpassed Trump for the first time. Trump has been the longtime favorite to win the nomination and has kept a solid lead against other potential candidates since former UN ambassador and governor of South Carolina, Nikki Haley, slipped from an on-and-off first place in January. DeSantis passed Trump on Wednesday, where Trump closed at 23¢ to DeSantis’ 24¢. On Thursday, Trump lost more ground with the market closing at Trump 21¢ and DeSantis 23¢.
We also opened a market this week for the winner of the 2022 Florida gubernatorial election, and if DeSantis wants to run for president in 2024, he’ll need to win his re-election campaign in 2022 first. So far, he’s maintained around a 60¢ lead ahead of Florida’s Commissioner of Agriculture, Nikki Fried, who is in second place at 17¢ as of close on Thursday. Fried has been widely tipped as the most likely Democrat to face DeSantis as she is also the only statewide elected member of her party.
Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) speaking with supporters at a "Liberty for Trump" event at the Graduate Hotel in Tempe, Arizona. Photo: Gage Skidmore / Flickr / CC BY 2.0
Gaetz Isn’t Going Anywhere, At Least Not Quietly
Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) is scheduled to speak tonight at the Save America Summit in Miami, Florida, a conference hosted by the pro-Trump organization Women for America First. This will be the first time Gaetz will speak in front of a large live audience since reports surfaced last week that he’s been under investigation by the FBI since last summer over allegations that he had a sexual relationship with an underage girl and paid for her to travel with him across state lines – a potential violation of federal sex trafficking laws.
Since the story broke last week, the news cycle has seen a steady stream of scandalous Gaetz headlines. Including that the congressman would brag about his sexual escapades to his colleagues on the House floor, and that he had asked Trump for a preemptive pardon due to the investigation, which the former president denied. Gaetz has denied the sex trafficking allegations and maintains that the DOJ investigation is part of an extortion scheme against him and his family.
Market Pulse: In a market that has garnered more than 1.4 million shares traded, Gaetz’s odds of resigning before May 1 appear to be slim. The market hasn’t gone above 34¢ since the day it opened, and hit at a market low of 14¢ during trading on Thursday. Trader comments point out that May 1 is quickly approaching, which could be driving the market price down, but Gaetz’s story will likely be ongoing.
Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Will Matt Gaetz resign before May 1?
You Don't Have to be Vaccinated to Take This Trip Around the Globe
President of the People's Republic of China Xi Jinping. Photo: Kremlin.ru / CC BY 4.0
Remember Monday? Here's Why We Added Two New Markets on China.
Like it or not, Chinese and US policies (and the politicians guiding them) impact each and every one of us – from the cost and availability of countless consumer products, to cyber security and technology concerns, and even information we have about the origins of the COVID-19 global pandemic. Still, for most Americans, the Chinese political system needs further explanation, especially if you want to trade in these markets.
The Chinese Communist Party is set to elect a new Central Committee at its next National Congress, which will take place in late 2022. Then, the new Central Committee will select the General Secretary who heads the committee’s elite 25-member Politburo and the uber-elite seven-member Standing Committee. This position has held “paramount leader” power over the party, the state and the military since the early 1990s when the General Secretary began serving concurrently as President of the People’s Republic of China and Chair of the Central Military Commission.
Xi Jinping became general secretary in 2012 and was selected for a second term in 2017. Since coming to power, Xi has consolidated his power and centralized policymaking authority under his control to an extent not seen perhaps since Mao Zedong. In March 2018, China’s legislature amended the State Constitution to delete the two-term limit for the president, removing the only formal barrier to Xi serving as “paramount leader” indefinitely.
Market Prices at 6 a.m. EDT: Interested in China-related markets? Check out these four options.
Now, remember the seven-member Standing Committee chosen from the 25-member Politburo? The “Politburo Standing Committee” (PBSC) is China’s top leadership group. We’re asking if Hu Chunhua will be selected as a member of this committee at the 2022 meeting. There is speculation, because of the reasons talked about above, that Xi will secure a norm-defying third term, but questions remain as to the full extent of his authority. Whether Xi can install more of his political allies on the next PBSC will be a key indicator of his true political power, and Hu is not known to be one of his allies.
Hu is also a rising political star in China and currently serves as the youngest member of the Politburo as well as at the high-ranking level of vice premier. It’s anticipated that Xi will attempt to block his selection, but if Hu is successful it could be a signal that Xi faces some intra-party conflict and might not hold as much power as people think.
Market Pulse: Traders are confident that Xi Jinping will remain in power as the General Secretary, with the market at 86¢ on Thursday. Because of Xi’s age (he will be 69 in 2022), he will have to exempt himself from a 20-year-old norm that cadres aren’t appointed to a new term if they’re over 68 if he wants to stay in power. On Hu Chunhua, traders also give him high hopes of being selected to the PBSC, which is at 78¢. Both the Xi and Hu markets are seeing low trade volume, likely due to a lack of understanding about the Chinese political system.
Now We're Off to Sunny South America
Now we head to sunny South America, where the political futures of Ecuador and Peru could be decided this weekend.
In Ecuador, Andrés Arauz, a protégé of former President Rafael Correa, finished first in a field of 16 candidates in the first round of voting in February, with 32.7% of the vote, but not enough to avoid a runoff.
After two tense weeks where the vote count was too close to determine who finished in second place, Ecuador’s electoral authority announced on Feb. 21 that Guillermo Lasso would face Arauz in the April 11 runoff. Under 33,000 votes separated Lasso’s 19.7% of the vote share from the third place finisher, indigenous leader Yaku Pérez with 19.4%. On Sunday, Arauz and Lasso will face off in the second round of the Ecuadorian presidential election.
Market Data at 6:30 a.m. EDT: Who will win the 2021 Ecuadorian presidential election?
Market Pulse: Arauz! Arauz! It’s always been Arauz. Well, that’s what traders have been saying over the last 90 days. Trading no lower than 69¢ and as high as 89¢, Arauz’s contract has been the favored outcome in the Ecuadorian presidential election. If there is some hope for Lasso, a 13¢ bump on March 31 saw his share price jump from 14¢ to 27¢ and finished Thursday at 26¢.
Over in Peru, voters will have more candidates to choose from in their presidential election on Sunday. If none of the candidates wins an absolute majority off votes in the first round, the top two candidates will compete in a runoff on June 6. The election comes after an unprecedented period of political instability and widespread protests in late 2020 following the impeachment of former President Martín Vizcarra.
Market Prices at 6:30 a.m. EDT: Predict the margins of victory in both races this weekend.
The market for Peru’s presidential election consists of 13 candidates, including the top six based on a poll from March 31: Yonhy Lescano, Hernando de Soto, Rafael López Aliaga, Verónika Mendoza, George Forsyth and Keiko Fujimori.
Read more about Peru's candidates in Wednesday's Alternate Forecasts email.
Market Pulse: Since launching in March, traders have placed their money on Lescano, but de Soto has been on the rise this week, closing Thursday only 11¢ behind, making it the tightest contest of the market. De Soto has seen his share price rise from 2¢ on April 2 to 32¢ as of close on Thursday. Note, at the time of writing Lescano led de Soto, 43¢ to 32¢.
Market Data at 6:30 a.m. EDT: Who will win the 2021 Peruvian presidential election?
In Case You Missed It!
Photo: The Epoch Times / Flickr / CC BY-SA 2.0
PredictIt markets making the news this week include:
Casino.org: “But PredictIt bettors feel the odds are long that Cuomo will depart Albany of his own accord. “Will Andrew Cuomo resign before May 1?” has “Yes” shares trading at just six cents. Other markets on the embattled governor include whether he will be in office at the end of the year (“Yes,” 55 cents), and if he’ll be impeached before Sept. 1 (“Yes,” 22 cents).”
The Capitolist: “Prediction markets have Ron DeSantis as huge favorite over Nikki Fried.”
As well as: Blue Virginia and Florida Politics
Audible Insights
Star Spangled Gamblers podcast: Matt Gaetz’s Sex Scandal and the Derek Chauvin Murder Trial
Host Pratik Chougule was joined this week by regular podcast contributors, Eli Braden and Gaeten Dugas, to pay tribute to former host Alex “Keendawg,” and discus the complicated scandal encircling Rep. Matt Gaetz and the PredictIt market on whether he will resign.
SSG is a podcast about the hottest bets in political prediction markets and you can now listen to new episodes on the PredictIt homepage.
Here's a taste of what you'll hear this week:
“I had a lot of fun riding this [Gaetz market] up and down. It went from like 21 up to 30 like three separate times one day, and so I as just riding the waves.”
The Prediction Trade podcast: Master Class on the Masters & Betting Belarus
Affiliated with Luckbox Magazine, The Prediction Trade (formerly The Political Trade) looks at the markets on Belarusian President Alexander Lakashenko’s chances of remaining in office amid growing national discontent and scandals.
PredictIt traders will also soon be able to listen to this podcast straight on the website, stay tuned for the next site update. PredictIt homepage.
Here's a taste of what you'll hear this week:
“The question is, if Putin is put under massive pressure by the west, and I think he can be and he will be, he’ll throw Lukashenko under the bus at the first opportunity. That’s not something they’re going to go down for.”
Recently Launched Markets
Obama hands over presidency to Trump at 58th Presidential Inauguration. Photo: US Air Force Staff Sgt. Marianique Santos / Public Domain.
Markets on China’s Xi Jinping and Hu Chunhua (which we've talked about extensively in this email) launched this week on recommendations from PredictIt traders.
We also launched markets on: margin of victory in the presidential elections in Peru and Ecuador being held on Sunday, April 11; who will win the Florida gubernatorial election in 2022; and the number of Senate votes to confirm Gary Gensler as SEC Chairman by the end of May.
Finally, we are always crowdsourcing new market ideas from traders. Send ideas to [email protected] and be sure to include a legitimate resolution source.
Thanks for following the markets!
Team @PredictIt
#ron desantis#prediction markets#predictable insights#political technology#political futures#political forecasts#joe biden#donald trump#matt gaetz#florida governor#China#xi jinping#Hu Chunhua#Peru#Ecuador#presidential elections#south america#Gary Gensler#yohny lescano#andres arauz#publix#60 minutes
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