#endemic knowledge
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South African researcher on the management of communal land
By
Wonga Masiza
Researcher, Agricultural Research Council
To understand the extent, causes and impact of communal land change, we analysed a series of historical satellite images from 1989 to 2019 and conducted interviews with locals. Instead of interviewing experts and leaders, the study measured the most common perceptions among community members.
As far as we know, this study is one of the first in South Africa to combine satellite data and local perceptions. This offered a more complete view of communal land change, and valuable insights on its impacts.
We suggested some ways in which this land could be managed better to provide ecosystem services and livelihoods.
Snippet
Satellite imagery from 1989 to 2019 revealed increases of the sweet thorn tree (Vachellia karroo) by 25% and the residential area (2.5%). It showed declines of grazing land (18%), cropland (9.6%) and dams (1.1%).
The land can be better managed through interventions by village committees, tribal authorities and extension services, and by following spatial planning and land use guidelines..
Most respondents (over 80%) noted the encroachment of the sweet thorn tree on grazing land and abandoned cropland. They said contributing factors were a decrease in fuelwood harvesting due to increased reliance on electricity, the abandonment of cropland (providing habitat for the sweet thorn) and seed dispersal caused by unrestricted movement of animals. Many saw the tree as beneficial because goats like to eat it and it makes good fuel. Others were concerned that this tree was invading productive agricultural land and causing a loss of biodiversity. They mentioned increased scarcity and disappearance of medicinal and culturally significant plants.
#local knowledge#traditional knowledge#endemic knowledge#indigenous knowledge#land management#communal land#south africa#managing land that belongs to everyone
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I’m not very knowledgeable about birds, but I’m a big fan of how they can just Look Like That sometimes. Could you possibly share some birds that have Just a Creature or A Strange Beast vibes (dealer’s choice what that means)?
Well, Cock of the Rock, Rockfowl, and other come to mind, but the group that takes the cake for me...

Sri Lankan Frogmouth (Batrachostomus moniliger), family Podargidae, order Podargiformes, Kerala, India
The frogmouths used to be included in the Nightjar/Goatsucker order Caprimulgiformes. As of 2019, they are now in their own order.
Frogmouths are not as closely related to nightjars, as previously thought.
photograph by Sudeesh M S Thattekkadu

Tawny Frogmouth (Podargus strigoides), family Podargidae, order Podargiformes, Australia
photograph by Joey Santore

Palawan Frogmouth (Batrachostomus chaseni), family Podargidae, order Podargiformes, endemic to Palawan, Philippines
photograph byDelio Tolosa

Philippine Frogmouth (Batrachostomus septimus) parents with chick, family Podargidae, order Podargiformes, Sierra Madre, Rizal, Philippines
photograph by Mhark Gee

Large Frogmouth (Batrachostomus auritus), mother with chick, family Podargidae, order Podargiformes, found in SE Asia
photograph by Jamil Mat Isa
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Hungry for Good Omens 3 crumbs of information? Let’s see what I’ve found and speculate a bit about cast members, filming locations, and… trees! As always, please tag accordingly, share only with the fans consenting to know potential spoilers, and get yourself something to drink since it’s going to be a longer read.

News flash: both Ned Dennehy (well-known to Good Omens fans as Hastur) and Sean Pertwee (recently revealed to star in the Finale as Brian Cameron) admitted to have been working on location in Tenerife during the film’s production time slot (January and early February, respectively). In Dennehy’s case, even providing a rather intimately close look at his character.



The location alone isn’t particularly surprising, as the Canary Islands and Tenerife in particular are currently experiencing an influx of international productions, including several TV shows by global streamers, making use of the favourable weather and prices. But Dennehy’s post, additionally liked by a Good Omens crew member, seems somewhat suggestive.
In the Instagram story above, Sean Pertwee called 14 January 2025 his last day on the shoot in Tenerife and subsequently traveled to London and Edinburgh, from where he shared another video three weeks later.
Now, technically the Tenerife film set could be a part of Pertwee’s NCIS: Tony & Ziva job he started last autumn. However, that would imply that he plays a greater role in the upcoming production than the currently available promotional materials imply, and the location stamp in the bottom right corner, Drago Milenario, is too deliciously Good Omens coded to overlook it.
It isn’t even a place, really, but a living organism. A plant. A tree.

Meet Drago Milenario, also know as El Drago, a natural monument and symbol of Tenerife. The oldest and largest living specimen of the endemic Dracaena draco (dragon tree), it is said to be a thousand years old and stand at 18 metres high with a 20-metre perimeter. “Great big bugger,” as Aziraphale would say.
There has been much debate over the age of the tree, and some even say that it may be over 5000 years old; more recent estimates seem more conservative and suggest that El Drago is no more than 800 to 1000 years old. It is difficult to say unambiguously, because the traditional method of counting rings is not applicable in this case — dracaena has no rings.
Its home, the Millennial Dragon Tree Park, or Parque del Drago, in Icod de los Vinos, is a sacred place and a burial zone of Tenerife’s original inhabitants, the Guanches. Members of the Guanche people venerated El Drago as a divine tree; a symbol of wisdom and fertility, believed to have magical powers, granting longevity and warding off evil spirits. Its blood-red oil or sap is called dragon's blood and historically used to treat wounds and embalm corpses. According to local legends, that’s because slain dragons don’t actually die, but rather turn into dragon trees like this one.

The dragon part of the story sounds objectively cool, but if we overlook it for a second, we might notice why the connection to Good Omens is so strong here. When asked about trees in the show’s context, one’s first point of reference is quite naturally the Garden of Eden scene and the shot above featuring the Tree of Knowledge of Good and Evil. The thing is, it wasn’t the only one.
According to the Bible, the very reason why Aziraphale was even stationed in Eden (possibly with a few other armed angels) was to protect the Garden from the newly exiled humans. More specifically, his “apple duty” meant that he was supposed to guard a very particular and yet unseen tree:
“The Lord God made garments of skin for Adam and his wife and clothed them. And the Lord God said, ‘The man has now become like one of us, knowing good and evil. He must not be allowed to reach out his hand and take also from the tree of lifeand eat, and live forever.’ So the Lord God banished him from the Garden of Eden to work the ground from which he had been taken. After he drove the man out, he placed on the east side of the Garden of Eden cherubim and a flaming sword flashing back and forth to guard the way to the Tree of Life.” (Genesis 3:21-24)


In the apocryphal Apocalypse of Moses, the tree of life is also called the Tree of Mercy. Adam, the first human, famously sent his son Seth and wife Eve back to the gates of the Garden to beg God and His angels for some oil of the Tree of Life to save him from his deathbed by granting either full immortality or longer lifespan. They were obviously denied, but in another part of the Bible — the Book of Revelation, on which most of the official Good Omens plot is based, Jesus announces the details of His Second Coming, including who and when will get the right to enjoy this forbidden fruit:
“Behold, I am coming quickly, and My reward is with Me, to reward each one as his work deserves. I am the Alpha and the Omega, the first and the last, the beginning and the end. Blessed are those who wash their robes, so that they will have the right to the tree of life, and may enter the city by the gates. (Revelation 22:12-14)
The Catholic Church in particular believes that the Tree of Life mentioned above is the Eucharist and often combines the image of the Tree with the Cross of Christ, both literally and figuratively (see above: The Tree of Life printed by John Hagerty, 1791) granting the immortal life to His Chosen Ones:
And he showed me a river of the water of life, clear as crystal, coming from the throne of God and of the Lamb, in the middle of its street. On either side of the river was the tree of life, bearing twelve kinds of fruit, yielding its fruit every month; and the leaves of the tree were for the healing of the nations. There will no longer be any curse; and the throne of God and of the Lamb will be in it, and His bond-servants will serve Him; they will see His face, and His name will be on their foreheads. And there will no longer be any night; and they will not have need of the light of a lamp nor the light of the sun, because the Lord God will illuminate them; and they will reign forever and ever. (Revelation 1-5)



In his Roll Play BAFTA interview published on 10 February 2025, while talking about his work for the Good Omens Finale, David Tennant himself has specifically referred to the possibility of Aziraphale and Crowley spending eternity together. But where? Well.
The visual symbolism of an apple tree seems so important for the Good Omens 3 plot that it’s even represented on the exclusive mug design shared on 30 April by one of everyone’s favourite production crew spouses, Carla Scott Fullerton (fullercoaching on Instagram):


For those who missed the original discussion, the reverse side of the complimentary mug gifted to Good Omens 3 crew members and depicted above contains a photo of slate number 100, scene 59 of the production with a quote “We’ve come to a decision…”. A typical feature film of this length consists of around 60 scenes, so it’s definitely the ending or one of the scenes directly preceding it.
Which means that the story ends, as it began, in a garden. And with a very specific apple tree, adorned with initials AZ and CR in two little hearts as hinted by the drawing in the background.

There’s a specific crew member though — one of the firsts to be confirmed for the upcoming production, actually — that has shared a Good Omens themed work with an apple tree a whole year earlier.
Here you can see Michael Ralph’s (i.e., Good Omens production designer’s) concept art depicting Neil Gaiman’s version of heaven on earth – “Heaven is a Library” – at LA music venue, The Wiltern, for The Art of Elysium’s Heaven 2024 charity gala. It’s got Va Va Voom yellow walls, red carpet, spiral stairs, a centrally located oculus, and lots of plants with an apple tree with a swing in the middle. In case this image wasn’t suggestive enough, it’s worth to focus on the twin display tables with Cupid statues on top, direct copies of the one from A. Z. Fell and Co. bookshop in Soho.
It’s not even subtle — and wasn’t meant to be, considering how Event Eleven, the creative agency behind the gala, typically organises high budget premiere events and promotional campaigns for Amazon Prime TV shows, and to this day it’s the closest we’ve got to a Good Omens 3 public celebration.

While this one was for charity and officially not affiliated with the studio, it took place only three weeks after the official announcement of Good Omens 3 and involved not only this curious simulacrum of Aziraphale’s bookshop as a setting, but also Jon Hamm on stage as the guest of honour, referencing the co-leads of the TV series and reciting an excerpt from the 1990 novel in an approximation of their characters’ voices, and the Ukrainian artist Katya Zvereva was commissioned to make an installation for the gala called literally “Tree of Life” (above).
If you remember my bookshop meta, you will probably find the official explanation of the event’s theme particularly interesting:
“Heaven is two things that are, perhaps, the same thing. Heaven is both a library, the place where we go for knowledge, wisdom, advice and for stories, and heaven is also a refuge, somewhere that we can go, whoever we are, for safety and protection. Heaven contains librarians and refugees, shelters the helpless, and gives them — us — somewhere quiet to sit and read or listen.”


Not incidentally, the only iteration of the Tree of Life in the actual show so far has been built into the layout of Aziraphale’s bookshop (left). Its Kabbalah depiction (right) is a representation of the entirety of creation, composed of ten spheres — referred to as the Sephiroth/Sefirot as a whole — each denoting a universal quality, such as wisdom or beauty. To quote The Golden Dawn: The Original Account of the Teachings, Rites, and Ceremonies of the Hermetic Order by Israel Regardie:
This altar diagram shows the Ten Sephiroth with all the connecting Paths numbered and lettered, and the Serpent winding over each Path. Around each Sephirah are written the Names of the Deity, Archangel and Angelic Host attributed to it. The Twenty Two Paths are bound together by the Serpent of Wisdom. It unites the Paths but does not touch any of the Sephiroth, which are linked by the Flaming Sword. The Flaming Sword is formed by the natural order of the Tree of Life. It resembles a flash of Lightning. Together the Sephiroth and the Twenty Two Paths form the 32 Paths of the Sepher Yetzirah or Book of Formation. The Two pillars on either side of the Altar represent:
1. Active: The White Pillar on the South Side. Male. Adam. Pillar of Light and Fire. Right Kerub. Metatron.
2. Passive: The Black Pillar on the North Side. Female. Eve. Pillar of Cloud. Left Kerub. Sandalphon.
#good omens#good omens meta#good omens spoilers#good omens speculation#go3 spoilers#go3 speculation#good omens 3 spoilers#good omens 3 speculation#seriously don’t read it if you want to avoid spoilers#yuri is doing her thing#channeling detective aziraphale#it starts — as it will end — with a garden#garden of eden#tree of life#az + cr#good omens mug#michael ralph#set design#aziraphale’s bookshop
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Good News - June 15-21
Like these weekly compilations? Tip me at $Kaybarr1735! And if you tip me and give me a way to contact you, at the end of the month I'll send you a link to all of the articles I found but didn't use each week!
1. Victory for Same-Sex Marriage in Thailand
“Thailand’s Senate voted 130-4 today to pass a same-sex marriage bill that the lower house had approved by an overwhelming majority in March. This makes Thailand the first country in Southeast Asia, and the second in Asia, to recognize same-sex relationships. […] The Thai Marriage Equality Act […] will come into force 120 days after publication in the Royal Gazette. It will stand as an example of LGBT rights progress across the Asia-Pacific region and the world.”
2. One of world’s rarest cats no longer endangered
“[The Iberian lynx’s] population grew from 62 mature individuals in 2001 to 648 in 2022. While young and mature lynx combined now have an estimated population of more than 2,000, the IUCN reports. The increase is largely thanks to conservation efforts that have focused on increasing the abundance of its main food source - the also endangered wild rabbit, known as European rabbit. Programmes to free hundreds of captive lynxes and restoring scrublands and forests have also played an important role in ensuring the lynx is no longer endangered.”
3. Planning parenthood for incarcerated men
“[M]any incarcerated young men missed [sex-ed] classroom lessons due to truancy or incarceration. Their lack of knowledge about sexual health puts them at a lifelong disadvantage. De La Cruz [a health educator] will guide [incarcerated youths] in lessons about anatomy and pregnancy, birth control and sexually transmitted infections. He also explores healthy relationships and the pitfalls of toxic masculinity. […] Workshops cover healthy relationships, gender and sexuality, and sex trafficking.”
4. Peru puts endemic fog oasis under protection
“Lomas are unique ecosystems relying on marine fog that host rare and endemic plants and animal species. […] The Peruvian government has formally granted conservation status to the 6,449-hectare (16,000-acre) desert oasis site[….] The site, the first of its kind to become protected after more than 15 years of scientific and advocacy efforts, will help scientists understand climatic and marine cycles in the area[, … and] will be protected for future research and exploration for at least three decades.”
5. Religious groups are protecting Pride events — upending the LGBTQ+ vs. faith narrative
“In some cases, de-escalation teams stand as a physical barrier between protesters and event attendees. In other instances, they try to talk with protesters. The goal is generally to keep everyone safe. Leigh was learning that sometimes this didn’t mean acting as security, but doing actual outreach. That might mean making time and space to listen to hate speech. It might mean offering food or water. […] After undergoing Zoom trainings this spring, the members of some 120 faith organizations will fan out across more than 50 Pride events in 16 states to de-escalate the actions of extremist anti-LGBTQ+ hate groups.”
6. 25 years of research shows how to restore damaged rainforest
“For the first time, results from 25 years of work to rehabilitate fire-damaged and heavily logged rainforest are now being presented. The study fills a knowledge gap about the long-term effects of restoration and may become an important guide for future efforts to restore damaged ecosystems.”
7. Audubon and Grassroots Carbon Announce First-of-its-Kind Partnership to Reward Landowners for Improving Habitats for Birds while Building Healthy Soils
“Participating landowners can profit from additional soil carbon storage created through their regenerative land management practices. These practices restore grasslands, improve bird habits, build soil health and drive nature-based soil organic carbon drawdown through the healthy soils of farms and ranches. […] Additionally, regenerative land management practices improve habitats for birds. […] This partnership exemplifies how sustainable practices can drive positive environmental change while providing tangible economic benefits for landowners.”
8. Circular food systems found to dramatically reduce greenhouse gas emissions, require much less agricultural land
“Redesigning the European food system will reduce agricultural land by 44% while dramatically reducing greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture by 70%. This reduction is possible with the current consumption of animal protein. “Moreover, animals are recyclers in the system. They can recycle nutrients from human-inedible parts of the organic waste and by-products in the food system and convert them to valuable animal products," Simon says.”
9. Could Treating Injured Raptors Help Lift a Population? Researchers found the work of rehabbers can have long-lasting benefits

“[“Wildlife professionals”] tend to have a dismissive attitude toward addressing individual animal welfare,” [… but f]or most raptor species, they found, birds released after rehabilitation were about as likely to survive as wild birds. Those released birds can have even broader impacts on the population. Back in the wild, the birds mate and breed, raising hatchlings that grow up to mate and breed, too. When the researchers modeled the effects, they found most species would see at least some population-level benefits from returning raptors to the wild.”
10. Indigenous people in the Amazon are helping to build bridges & save primates
“Working together, the Reconecta Project and the Waimiri-Atroari Indigenous people build bridges that connect the forest canopy over the BR-174 road[….] In the first 10 months of monitoring, eight different species were documented — not only monkeys such as the golden-handed tamarin and the common squirrel monkey (Saimiri sciureus), but also kinkajous (Potos flavus), mouse opossums (Marmosops sp.), and opossums (Didelphis sp.).”
Bonus: A rare maneless zebra was born in the UK
June 8-14 news here | (all credit for images and written material can be found at the source linked; I don’t claim credit for anything but curating.)
#hopepunk#good news#lgbtq#gay rights#gay marriage#same sex marriage#thailand#lynx#big cats#cats#endangered species#endangered#sex education#prison#peru#conservation#habitat#religion#pride#faith#pride month#lgbt pride#compassion#rainforest#birds#nature#climate change#wildlife rehab#wildlife#indigenous
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Hello! I have a question that came to mind while reading your answer to someone else's question. The statement about "the dream of 'completing' the inventory (possible in vertebrates, impossible in most invertebrate groups)" has me curious what exactly it means to complete the inventory? (I'm guessing it's along the lines of finding an example/living proof of all the critters which seems an impressively huge dream!) Also, why is there a difference for vertebrates and invertebrates, is it an evolution thing (new ones keep happening!) or environment thing (we can't get to where the critters are) or something else/a combination of stuff?
Thank you for all you do for science!!!
The dream is that taxonomists would run out of things to do.
We caught 'em all.
Then we can focus our efforts instead of understanding how they got this way, what they do with their time, how they are related, why they live where they do, when they are active, what they eat, and so on and so forth. Once there is a name on every species, we have the framework in place to contextualise all of the rest of the knowledge that we are so desperately missing for the vast, vast majority of life.
Some taxa are really close to this, and it is kind of evidenced by the taxonomic rate on those groups. For instance, only 117 species of birds have been described in the 21st century (src), but over 100 frog species are described per year (src). That is not because people are more interested in frogs than they are birds (although Tumblr might make you think that is the case), but because there actually aren't that many birds remaining to be described. Yes, some, but not many. So we are not that far from the taxonomic picture of birds being largely resolved, and consequently there is less work for bird taxonomists, and more attention is given to other aspects of bird ecology and behaviour.
Vertebrates constitute less than 100,000 species of the >2 million eukaryote species described to date (visualised here). Even when the inventory is completed, it may be shy of 100,000. But we think there may be even 100 million species of eukaryotes. The vast, vast majority of those are invertebrates (and maybe about half are parasites, because most species have at least one species-endemic parasite). In some groups, completing the inventory is just a totally unrealistic idea. And we probably need to come to terms with that somehow… but it's not an easy thing to admit or tackle.
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Hey, do you have any monkies? I'm collecting a lost for a very knowledgeable 6yo to research, so if you have any cool looking ones, he'd love them! Thanks :)
I might have a few cool monkeys for you!

Black-footed Gray Langur (Semnopithecus hypoleucos), family Cercopithecidae, southern India
photograph by @shaazjung

White-headed Marmoset (Callithrix geoffroyi), family Callitrichidae, eastern Brazil
Photograph by Luis Palacios

Mandrill (Mandrillus sphinx), male, family Cercopithecidae, Gabon
photograph by @mogenstrolle

Lion-tailed Macaque (Macaca silenus), family Cercopithecidae, endemic to the Western Ghats of India
photograph by Sandeep Dutta

Red-shanked Douc (Pygathrix nemaeus), family Cercopithecidae, found in Laos, Viet Nam, and Cambodia
ENDANGERED.
photograph by Miriam Blas Nombela

Golden Monkey (Cercopithecus mitis kandti), family Cercopithecidae, Rwanda
Subspecies of the Blue Monkey.
photograph by m107791


White-faced Saki (Pithecia pithecia), males, family Pitheciidae, found in the central area of northern South America
photographs: Jindřich Pavelka & Skyscraper


White-headed Langur (Trachypithecus leucocephalus), family Cercopithecidae, endemic to Guangxi, China
CRITICALLY ENDANGERED.
Photograph by VCG via: China Plus Culture
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Article
"2023 was a banner year for the Galapagos Islands: that wondrous archipelago so famous for its giant tortoises and other endemic species.
The long-serving conservation organization the Galapagos Conservancy, also endemic to the islands, recently published its annual report featuring standout figures like over 500 giant tortoises of 5 different species reintroduced to their natural habitat.
Additionally, a critically endangered species of albatross was identified to use giant tortoise feeding sites as take-off and landing areas. This key insight into co-dependency has given the Conservancy confidence that they can restore the populations of both animals to stable, flourishing numbers.
It underscores how far a donation to these endemic wildlife organizations really does go, and these two highlights of a successful year were only possible by the over $6 million in charitable contributions from supporters.
30 Chelonoidis chatamensis tortoises endemic to the smaller island of San Cristobal were repatriated to their natural habitat from the stock of a captive breeding program, while 97 native tortoises were returned to the second-largest island of Santa Cruz.
On the largest island of Isabella, 350 tortoises (214 C. guntheri and 136 C. vicina) were successfully reintroduced to their natural habitat after a survey found their numbers were not rising substantially on their own.
In March, the repatriation of 86 juvenile Chelonoidis hoodensis tortoises significantly contributed to enhancing the species’ distribution across their native habitat. They currently number 3,000 today on Española or Hood Island, a miraculous recovery from the 14 found there in the 1960s.
Also on Española, the endemic waved albatross was found to be taking off and landing on 50 additional parts of the island. These large birds, boasting an 8-foot wingspan, need ample space to get a running start before taking off, and this same principle applies when applying the brakes coming down from the sky.
In the survey, the biologists observed that concentrations of giant tortoises were linked with the usage of areas as runways for the albatross. Because the tortoises are the largest herbivores in the ecosystem, they perform the same acts as bison do in North America and Europe, and elephants in Africa—clear space.
With their herbivorous diet and large bulk, the tortoise’s feeding habits produce cleared areas ideal for albatross use.
“This discovery underscores the interconnectedness of the Galápagos ecosystem,” the authors of the report write. “This newly acquired knowledge allows us to strengthen the synergies between our conservation strategies.”
Of the $6.1 million received from donations and through other activities, the Conservancy was able to spend 77% of that on conservation programs, and that included some ambitious plans for this year—now already half done—which included drafting plans for restoration of the Pinta tortoise to the island of the same name, preparing tortoises for imminent reintroduction to the smaller Floreana island, and completely restoring the habitat for the Galapagos petrels on Santa Cruz.
Operating since 1985, the Galapagos Conservancy has a long track record of restoring these islands to their pre-Colombian glory. Let’s hope 2024 is as successful."
-via Good News Network, July 19, 2024
#galapagos#tortoise#galapagos islands#conservation#biodiversity#albatross#reptile#reptiblr#endangered species#wildlife conservation#ecosystems#climate action#conservation news#good news#hope
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Research alert! A new study shows how climate change affected the diversity of Congo River fish during glacial periods—crucial knowledge for understanding modern threats to fish in this species-rich region.
Over the last about 2.6 million years, polar ice caps have continuously expanded and retracted during glacial and interglacial cycles. This is thought to be a significant driver of biodiversity on land, but less is known about its effect on freshwater systems, especially in the Congo River.
Using molecular tools, scientists focused on four species of fish endemic to the lower Congo River, known as lamprologine cichlids. Their findings, published in the journal Integrative and Comparative Biology, suggest speciation of Congo fish likely occurred when the river’s water level decreased, isolating populations of fish into smaller pockets of water, leading to the rise of new species over time.
Learn more about how climate change impacts river fish.
Image: © Melanie Stiassny, Lamprologus lethops pictured
#science#amnh#museum#natural history#nature#fact of the day#did you know#new research#research#congo river#fish#icthyology#climate change
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PLEASE FEED US MORE JUST AS DOWN BAD GOLDEN CHEESE. PLEASE MORE YANDERE CHEESE
Did you send two asks in a row screaming for more Accidental Yandere Golden Cheese lol. Calm down brotato, Merchant is here. Merchant sees you (and everyone else in my inbox I swear to God Almighty I will address you all eventually). Let me see what I've got in my noodle for you
Under the cut because this is fucked and gets a little extra graphic at one particular point lol
Golden Cheese actually has tried to gather the identities of those Burning Spice has murdered. What she wasn't able to glean on her own, from her own personal knowledge of other lands and peoples (i.e. noticing certain traits she knows to be endemic to certain cultures, like a hair accessory or something), she found in books and scrolls in her kingdom's library that gave her a better idea. Whatever she couldn't find in those, she found via sending cheesebirds to travel far and wide in search of any kingdoms, cities, villages, families and friend groups with confirmed missing persons. They would report back to her and, with all the knowledge she's gathered, she's able to find a name, which she then wrote onto a label and placed under the person it belonged to. She's managed to eventually give all the heads their identities/personhood back, at least to some degree. And now, knowing who these people are/were, she can get them back to their loved ones easier. Right? ...Right? (She tries not to progress beyond being proud of herself for going that extra mile, because it just leads back to "ok so why are the heads still here, why haven't you returned them". In trying to do the right thing, she ultimately just does the WRONG thing again and reinforces her preexisting guilt and shame, because... she knows exactly why she hasn't returned them...)
Golden has started... experimenting with Spice, for lack of a better term. After she was proven correct about him paying attention when she mentions someone she doesn't like and later killing that specific person for her, she starts testing him in other ways. She makes subtle suggestions about how he ought to kill people, to see how he responds in the moment and if he actually ends up doing it later. She tries to coax him into going into detail about how the killing went, just to see if and how he does so (turns out he really does like to brag about his crimes, especially to her). She tries to hint at him giving her other things besides body parts, like certain trinkets (it... sort of works. If she asks for a watch, he... brings her a severed arm with a watch attached to it still, for example). She's observing how far he'll go and in which direction he's willing to travel in at her suggestion. (...And she revels in how much power it turns out she has over him. She really does have him at her beck and call. It's lovely.)
When her friends ask her how she's been managing her Beast (they are aware that hers is still actively targeting her, but that's it), she acts as nonchalant as possible. Burning Spice is nothing. He's just a fly buzzing around her head. She handles him just fine. When they ask her how they can help, she tells them she doesn't need it, because she doesn't want them anywhere near him she really is fine. It's fine. She's fine. When they suggest going after him themselves... thank goodness she's a good actress and a quick thinker, because her very first REAL reaction was seething fury that she had to keep under control until she was alone again - but then, when she finally is, she just has another crisis of conscience, because now she has to confront the fact that she can no longer tolerate the notion of him being harmed by anyone besides herself. She used to want him dead or imprisoned by any means necessary, but now... now, she lies about his whereabouts to everyone who asks (and she always knows where he is, she snuck a tracking device onto him), because she doesn't want anyone coming near him for any reason anymore, least of all to harm him. Because only SHE can harm him now. He still comes to fight her, not just to give her things. And she obliges him, albeit begrudgingly (never mind the sick satisfaction she feels when she hurts him or takes him down. She wonders if this feeling is what he's referring to in those letters about him reveling in their battles and how he enjoys her suffering). She... she won't let that end. She won't let anyone get in the way. In his way. In THEIR way. She can handle him by herself. Everyone else can stay home. They won't take him away from her. She cannot guarantee their safety if they try.
She once idly wondered about his past. About the people he likely once had in his life. About... if he'd ever been fond of any other women. She could hardly fathom the hatred that utterly overwhelmed her senses when the thought entered her mind. So angry was she that she broke the glass of water in her hand in said anger and injured herself. So haunted by this notion did she end up, that she tried to ask him about it the next time they met (as subtly as possible; she understands the implications of asking such a thing). He just shrugged and said he didn't recall; the only woman that mattered to him was her. She hated how relieved she felt when he told her that...
...but after that day, and for a good while, he only targeted women. He kept killing adult women and bringing their heads to her, and no one else's. She quickly surmised that he might have noticed her jealousy (or at least imagined she was jealous) and immediately set out to prove his devotion to her further than before by destroying those she feels threatened by - even if the threat does not exist, for she is all he ever wanted. He never told her directly, but she figured that's what it was. And she allowed herself to believe it. Because it made her happy.
(When the women-only killing spree eventually ended, she was struck with morbid curiosity and asked him about the men he killed. Was there anything behind the ones he chose? He revealed to her that, though his targets were mostly random, he would go out of his way to kill any man that he thought she might find attractive. He was capable of feeling threatened, just like she was. It was quite the surprise... a surprise she welcomed, a surprise she found deeply amusing. Because really, what was left for her to find attractive in anyone anymore, when no one went as far as he did to earn her favor?)
She actually does find him handsome. She always has, from the beginning. It was something she considered to be a great shame; such good looks squandered on such a horrible man. But now... with her greed slowly spiraling out of control thanks to him constantly overfeeding it the way he does with his violent extremism... she's starting to dare to find that extremism handsome, too. She's slowly but surely ceasing to find any shame in the circumstance. She's starting to think he's handsome... and that's it, that's the end of the thought. He's handsome, with all of that blood coating his face and body. He's handsome, puffing his chest out and beaming with such sick pride at the handiwork he performed for her. He's handsome, in his maddened, unwavering dedication to her. He's handsome... no asterisk, no addendum, no ifs ands or buts. He's handsome. Burning Spice is handsome. It weighs on her like a stone. And it only gets heavier each time he sees him and his handsome face again.
Sometimes... just sometimes... she'll reread those letters that are particularly... steamy. There's something rather fascinating about them, in a different way than the others. They're so... uniquely visceral. She believes him when he tells her he's starving; his hunger practically lunges at her from the page, claws at her, sinks its teeth into her, sets her body alight. Pure, unashamed, blistering hot lust and sexuality, with some of that same addiction to violence mixed in (he's a sadomasochist, go figure). People have flirted with Golden before... but not like this. No one on earth has ever dared to speak to her so brazenly, not even after several pints of liquid courage. He talks about wanting to break her bed as well as she herself. He tells her how often he touches himself to the thought of her. He details exactly where he wants to put his hands. Where he wants to put his mouth. What he intends to say straight into her ears as they go, and what he wants her to say back to him. How he doesn't want to stop until they both collapse with exhaustion. Just neverending feverish rants about he wishes to destroy her in more ways than one, and how he expects her to scream and beg either way. She won't admit it, not even to herself, the thought tried to make itself known inside of her head once and she shoved it down and tried to bury it under concrete instantly, but... she's almost... intrigued. She's flattered, of course. She relishes this aspect of his insatiable appetite for her alongside all the others. (She likes being told she's pretty. He does that and then some.) But... some small part of her is... curious. Curious about... if he really would follow through on what he says he wants to do, if he really had the chance. How it would feel. How HE would feel. What the difference would really be between him overpowering her to win a fight and him overpowering her to... to...
...there are nights where she lays awake, drilling holes into the ceiling with her bloodshot eyes, wondering where it all went wrong. There are nights where all that succeeds in putting her to sleep are the warm, bitter tears that stream down her face when the guilt and shame grow too powerful. There are nights where she just gets up and leaves, throws herself out of her own window and flies off somewhere, anywhere, it doesn't matter - it just had to be somewhere she couldn't feel dozens of empty, lifeless eyes watching her through the walls. Judging her. Condemning her. Damning her to Hell, where she and the monster who ended their lives belonged.
...and then, there are nights where she feels... strange. Where she notices how... big her bed really is, and how small she feels laying in it. She wonders how it would feel if he was there. If she could nest in his thick, strong arms instead of thin bedsheets. How much more comfortable his chest would feel, compared to her pillow. If his hair was as soft as it looked. How he'd react if she started tracing his tattoos with her fingertips. If sharing a tender moment like that would awaken something in him. If it would somehow help him realize how wrong all of this is.
...Or maybe it would just make it worse.
Maybe she doesn't care anymore.
#y'all gotta stop encouraging me like this lol#i TOLD YOU I love writing dark shit and crazy people. Stop enabling me#jk keep enabling me please this is fun#cookie run kingdom#burning spice cookie#golden cheese cookie#burningcheese#goldenspice#yandere beasts#suggestive
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you can tell that there's an endemic lack of knowledge regarding yuri history that people keep trying to swap the dynamic of the fujoshi Miku song without realizing that they're stumbling into an area with actual historical precedent
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With Japanese know-how and the unwavering support of Japanese experts, Bhutan’s national bird is being hatched and hand-reared in captivity successfully for the first time ever.
The major hurdle to rearing chicks was overcome, and two healthy birds were just hand-reared, bringing the total captive population to five—a crucial lifeline to a bird that numbers less than 100 in the wild.
The critically-endangered white-bellied heron faces extinction due to habitat disturbance from human activities and predation. Professor Satoshi Shimano and his team from Hosei University, Japan, collaborated with the White-Bellied Heron Conservation Center (WBHCC) in Bhutan, to revive the species through direct intervention.
This heron is the world’s second largest, a symbolic bird for the people of Bhutan, and also a typical ‘umbrella species’ that requires a habitat with a vast, preserved environment. In recent years, the white-bellied heron population has decreased significantly.
As of 2024, it’s estimated there are fewer than 45 left in the world, although the official count stands at 60. It’s endemic to the Indian subcontinent, with approximately 25 individuals sighted in Bhutan, and the rest across the border in India. Conservation efforts for the species are limited and fragmented across the region.
In 2021, the Royal Society for Protection of Nature (RSPN) in Bhutan decided to begin efforts to artificially breed white-bellied herons outside their natural habitat, and the WBHCC was constructed and began operation in 2022. The WBHCC, located in the mountainous areas of south-central Bhutan, a six-hour drive from Bhutan’s capital, Thimphu, is supported by the Royal Government of Bhutan, international donors, agencies, and global philanthropists.
Two of the center’s three herons were collected as chicks from wild nests, and the other was rescued as a wounded bird. The center plans to collect not only chicks but also eggs from wild nests to artificially hatch them in an incubator. This was because monkeys were observed eating the heron’s eggs during incubation.
Since pair-bonded adults build their nests on steep cliffs and high trees, collecting chicks and eggs is extremely dangerous. A single nest typically produces around four eggs, and only 3–4 white-bellied heron pairs have been confirmed to nest in Bhutan.
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A support team was formed, composed of experts from the Hyogo Park of the oriental white stork and several member associations affiliated with JAZA (Japanese Association of Zoos and Aquariums). These experts had been involved in the captive breeding of oriental storks, Okinawa rails, and Japanese crested ibises. The team visited the WBHCC twice in March and April 2024, during the breeding season, taking the Japanese experience with these birds with them. Equipment and supplies were donated to the WBHCC.
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Even in Japan, it took more than twenty years to establish the artificial breeding technique for the storks and ibises.
“Japan, which knows the pain of having lost the endemic Japanese lineage and the subsequent efforts that followed, should be the one to make use of its own technique overseas,” said Shimano. “Everyone on the team is committed to supporting the white-bellied heron for the next 20 years.”
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“There have been past cases where efforts to prevent the extinction of both the crested ibis and the oriental stork have failed. In order to prevent a repeat of this, I hope that by providing the knowledge that Japan has, we can increase the number of these birds, even if only a little,” said Matsumoto.
The team is hopeful that, within 5 to 10 years, when the captive population rises to around 30 individuals, they will release a few into the wild.
#good news#animals#endangered species#japan#bhutan#white-bellied huron#hurons#storks#ibises#science#animal welfare#birds
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The great fault of the global left is not that it supports Hamas. For how could Western left-wing movements or left-inclining charities or academic bodies truly support Hamas if they were serious about their politics?
No one outside the most reactionary quarters of Islam shares Hamas’s aim of forcing the peoples of the world to accept “the sovereignty of Islam” or face “carnage, displacement and terror” if they refuse. You cannot be a progressive and campaign for a state that executes gay men. An American left, which includes in its ranks the Queers for Palestine campaign group, cannot seriously endorse lethal homophobia in its own country. They will turn a blind eye in Palestine, as we shall see, but not in New York or Chicago.
Finally, no left organisation proudly honours the Protocols of the Elders of Zion and the fascist tradition that Hamas embraces with such sinister gusto, although in a sign of a decay that has been building on the left for more than a generation, many will promulgate left-wing conspiracy theories which are as insane as their fascist counterparts.
No, the problem with the global left is that it is not serious about politics. It “fellow travels” with radical Islam rather than supports it. The concept of “fellow travelling,” with its suggestions of tourism, dilettantism, and privilege, is well worth reviving. The phrase comes from the Bolsheviks. After the Russian Revolution of 1917 they looked with appreciation on Westerners who supported them without ever endorsing communism. Artists, writers, and academics who were disgusted with the West, often for good reason, I should add, were quite happy to justify Soviet communism and cover up its crimes without ever becoming communists themselves.
Leon Trotsky put it best when he said of fellow travellers that the question was always “how far would they go”? As long as they did not have live under the control of communists in the 1920s or the control of Islamists in the 2020s, the answer appears to be: a very long way indeed
W.H. Auden said, as he looked back with some contempt on his fellow travelling past, if Britain or the United States or any country he and his friends knew were taken over by a “successful communist revolution with the same phenomena of terror, purges, censorship etc., we would have screamed our heads off”. But as communism happened in backward Russia “a semi-barbarous country which had experienced neither the Renaissance nor the Enlightenment”, they could ignore its crimes in the interests of seeing the capitalist enemy defeated.
You see the same pattern of lies and indulgence in the case of Hamas. Journalists have produced a multitude of examples of fellow travelling since 7 October but let one meeting of the Oakland City Council in the Bay area of San Francisco speak for them all.
A council member wanted the council to pass a motion that condemned the killings and hostage-taking by Hamas, who, in case we forget, prompted the war that has devastated Gaza, by massacring Israeli civilians. The motion got nowhere
According to one speaker Hamas did not massacre anyone, a modern variant of Holocaust denial that is becoming endemic. “There have not been beheadings of babies and rapings,” a woman said at the meeting. “Israel murdered their own people on October 7.” Another woman said that calling Hamas a terrorist organization is “ridiculous, racist and plays into the genocidal propaganda that is flooding our media.” Hamas was the “armed wing of the unified Palestinian resistance” , said a third who clearly had no knowledge of the civil war between Hamas and Fatah.
“To condemn Hamas was very anti-Arab racist” cried a fourth. The meeting returned to modern Holocaust denial as a new speaker said the Israeli Defence Forces had murdered their own people and it was “bald propaganda” to suggest otherwise. A man intervened to shout that “to hear them complain about Hamas violence is like listening to a wifebeater complain when his wife finally stands up and fights back”.
Anyone who contradicted him was a “white supremacist.”
Of course they were.
Now if theocrats were to establish an Islamist tyranny in the Bay area, I am sure every single speaker would scream their heads off, as Auden predicted. They can turn into fellow travellers as there is no more of a prospect of theocracy threatening them than there was of communism threatening readers of the left-wing press in the UK and US in the 1930s.
A serious left would have plenty to complain about. Consider the Israeli position after the breakdown of the ceasefire. The Israeli state is led by Benjamin Netanyahu, a catastrophe of a prime minister, who left his people exposed to the worst massacre of Jews since the Holocaust. His war aims are contradictory: you cannot both wipe out Hamas and free the hostages.
Worst of all, the Israeli defence forces are to move to the southern Gaza strip where two million Palestinians are crammed. Just war doctrine holds that a military action must have a reasonable chance of success if the suffering is to be permitted. How, reasonably, can the Israeli army expect to find guerilla fighters hiding in a terrified population? According to leaks in the Israeli media, Anthony Blinken, the US Secretary of state, was warning the Israeli government that, “You can’t operate in southern Gaza in the way you did in the north. There are two million Palestinians there.” But he was ignored. A radical movement worth having would surely be putting pressure on the Biden administration to force Israel to listen to its concerns.
The radical movement we have will not engage in practical politics because compromise is anathema to it. Any honest account of the war would have to admit that Israel has the right to defend itself against attack. It is just that the military position it finds itself in now may well make its war aims impossible and therefore immoral.
You can see why practical politics has no appeal. Where is the violent satisfaction in sober analysis, the drama in compromise? Where is the Manichean distinction between the absolute good of the Palestinians and the pure evil of Israel?
Meanwhile, ever since the Israeli victory in the Six Day War of 1967, you have been able to say that Jewish settler sites on the West Bank were placed there deliberately to make a peace settlement impossible, and ensure that Israel controlled all the territory from “the river to the sea” forever.
A serious left might try to revive a two-state solution by building an international consensus that the settlements must go. Once again, however, that is too tame an aim. For the fellow traveller watching Palestine from a safe distance, satisfaction comes only by embracing Hamas’s call for the destruction of Israel. Some progressives try to dress up the urge to destroy by pretending that Jews and Palestinians will go on to live together in some happy-clappy, multi-ethnic and multi-confessional state. But most must know they are advocating a war to the death. What makes their position so disreputable is that, if they thought about it calmly, they would know it would be a war that only Israel could win. It is the Israelis who have the nuclear weapons, after all.
The worst of the global left is dilettantish. It advocates a maximalist position which has a minimal chance of success - just for the thrill of it. David Caute, a historian of fellow travelling with Stalin and communism said that the endorsement of communism by fellow travelling intellectuals in the West “deepened the despair” of Soviet intellectuals. “In their darkest hours they heard themselves condemned by their own kind”.
The 2020s are not the 1930s. I am sure that, if I were a Palestinian in Gaza, my sole concern would be the removal of Israeli forces that threatened me and my family. I would either not care about demonstrations in the West or I would receive some comfort from the knowledge that people all over the world were protesting on my behalf.
Nevertheless, a kind of betrayal is still at work. By inflaming and amplifying the worst elements in Palestine the global left is giving comfort to the worst elements in Israel, which are equally determined to make a compromise impossible.
The New Statesman made that point well when it ran a piece by Celeste Marcus. She came from the Zionist far right, and was taught doctrines that dehumanised Palestinians. She grew up and grew away from the prejudices of her childhood and became a liberal. But after she moved into her new world, she “recognised immediately that progressive leftists feel about Israelis the way radical Zionists feel about Palestinians: these are not real people.”
The result is that for all its power on the streets and in academia the global left is almost an irrelevance.
“To influence Israel,” she writes, “one must be willing to recognise it. Since leftist leaders cannot bother to do this, they cannot be of real use to Palestinians. This is a betrayal of their own cause.”
The dilettantism of fellow travelling always ends in betrayal and denial for the reason Auden gave: terror is always more tolerable when it happens far, far away.
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Y'all know I'm a sucker for endangered species reintroduction stories, right? Especially when it's not a charismatic megafauna being highlighted. So of course I was excited when this headline crossed my dash.
The magnificent ramshorn (what a great name!), also known as Planorbella magnifica, is a tiny snail endemic to ponds and other quiet waterways in North Carolina's lower Cape Fear River basin. In fact, they were only known from four sites in the region. Due to plummeting numbers in its limited habitat, some of the last of these snails were removed from the wild to create an intensive captive breeding program. (It really doesn't take much to keep a snail happy in captivity once you figure out what conditions it needs.) The last wild individual was observed twenty years ago, and it is considered to be extinct in the wild.
That is, until now. Two thousand of these little reddish snails were released into a safe pond in Brunswick County. Researchers are using this as a way to observe how well these captive-bred snails adapt to their historic habitat, including successful reproduction. If all goes well, we can hope to see more reintroductions of these native mollusks back into their original range.
We nature nerds are biased, because we think everything in nature is awesome (yes, I'm even an apologist for mosquitoes!) So of course we get excited when a bunch of rare little snails get a second chance, because we understand how crucial each species is to its ecosystem. It can be tougher sometimes to sell the importance of this to the general public, who may question why it would be such a big deal for one snail species to go extinct. That's why I think it's so important for us to keep sharing our knowledge and--perhaps even more importantly--our enthusiasm for all these amazing beings. Keep being cheerleaders for critters like these snails, and your enthusiasm may end up being contagious!
#snails#ramshorn snails#magnificent ramshorn#molluscs#mollusks#gastropods#wildlife#animals#endangered species#habitat restoration#extinction#environment#conservation#nature#ecology#science#scicomm#North America
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Gehennanauts in the Trail of Cryptids
For @jennywolfgal and her project Trail of Cryptids
In the far corners of earth in the world of Trail of Cryptids lie a phenomena not of human hands, and not of earthly origin. Organic gateways grown from flesh and bone tie two worlds together from the depths of space for as long as humanity has been keeping track of their mark on the world. And on the other side lies a planet far from the light of our sun, bathed without break by the light of another. Who's mere existence inspired our ideas of what come after death. In recent times as we have been exploring our solar system, we rediscovered these gateways. And developed new suits, and new roles using our knowledge on what to wear for the depths of space.
The Gehennanauts are a wide collection of Researchers, Explorers, and Xenobiologists. Rigorously trained to live and work on the surface of "Hell". A distant earth-sized tidally locked exoplanet that by unnatural interference, Inspired many of humanity's beliefs in the underworld. Ancient Egypt's Duat, Islam's Jahannam, Greek mythology's Hades, Hinduism and Bhuddism's Naraka, the Hopi and Navajo legends of the Four worlds, and Christianity's hell. They and countless other mythologies were all inspired by this one exoplanet these space explorers are specifically trained to venture onto. All to those gateways now named the "hellmouths"
Gehennanauts work under many guilds that specialize in different aspects of understanding "Hell". Some specialize in understanding the planets geology, others research the local "botany". Some Gehennanauts have the balls and their guilds the reckless abandon to do field research on the native wildlife dangerous enough to inspire humans to make demons. And some Gehennanauts and their guilds just want to play it safe and research the planet and it's interplanetary neighbors from the comfort of earth's side of the hellmouths
The model itself, standing for the Hell-Biosphere-Suit Mark-7. Is the latest and most refined model in the Gehennanaut line of suits. Outfitted with Bite resistant fabric made of french linen and adorned in plates of overlapping Iron armor. Which is naturally harmful to the subtle difference in the native wildlife's biochemistry. And added with the bright neon colors to distinguish themselves from the almost black foliage turns their entire suit into a giant aposematic warning sign for the endemic organisms.
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3 questions:
What is it you like... do, where does all the political expertise come from?
Do you have a platonic ideal of city development and what is it?
What's your take on communitarians? I never got the basic intuition about what makes it appealing, honestly smells totalitarian
- I lie about having political expertise on the internet mainly, that is where the expertise comes from!
But otherwise I am an ex-political analyst/quasi-academic - I took many classes and read many books on the subject. And also blogs, which certainly used to be an incredibly good source for more "foundational" knowledge - still good ofc, but we are past the heyday of the blogosphere. I personally think there is no substitute for "reading a bunch of diverse books in sequence on a topic", not only because you learn about the subject but because you start to see all the diverse approaches to any subject and how to synthesize it all, which can be applied elsewhere.
My actual job these days is in higher education, I build courses, degrees, etc. It definitely is something that keeps me exposed to good info sources but it is not load-bearing on how I grow as a writer. It's true perk is giving me access to good scanning equipment for anime archiving.
- I don't "actually" have one as I think all city development should be organic and contextual, no two places should look identical. In particular you can't really force economies, the industries be where they are. Overall I think the key things are to reduce localism while preserving democratic engagement, so you build up a strong regional government with elected officials holding critical power that can't be overridden by institutional stakeholders so they can pursue majority-benefitting policies. To be more granular, I think diversity of housing options is perpetually underappreciated - you want neighborhoods having studios to 4 bedroom units to even detached homes as you trickle out from the metro stops all next to each other so you can cultivate local economies that cater to diverse crowds and governance units that are "full stack" on the people they need to support. This happens pretty organically without zoning restrictions - US cities just try very hard to force housing types into specific zones.
I do also support every city of a sufficient size having a Kowloon Walled City-esque hyperdense housing complex at their center as a "stopgap" housing option for anyone of any stripe who wants to come to the city and try their hand at it. I am not even joking on that.
-Definitely too diverse a field to have "one" take! So to paint a very broad brush, they are a classic "cause" ideology that hits on correct social problems but doesn't give their solutions the same treatment. It is true that no one is an island, that social dependence is endemic to modernity, that "we are all connected" and individualist decision-making results in suboptimal outcomes. And not only for "others", but even for the individual, the isolating anomie of modernity that everyone falls into is a legitimate problem. In the abstract "more community" can do a lot of good.
But once you move away from abstraction the grubby realities of implementing something like the Responsive Communitarian Platform it tends to fall apart. Individuals are not the best deciders for themselves, but they are typically better than the rest of the options on the table as flawed, biased, or openly hostile governing authorities are the only real alternative. Community orgs are often populated by niche interest groups and oddball activists as typical people are too buys living life to care. Welfare is typically better done by distant, standardized, centralized cash payments instead of a "community" with its fickle resources and personal agendas. And so on. Obviously community has its place, but it is a place that typically already exists - we have had say schools and school boards for a long time! So as a movement it tends to collapse back to good ol' incremental social liberalism as those are the only practical things it can offer.
(But again YMMV based on individual thinkers, a diverse field)
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While we have multiple studies showing that Covid is far from seasonal (a supposition made without support by the authors of this study), this is an interesting analysis on how minimization is causing present (and potentially future) problems with tracking and diagnosing long covid. People aren't worried about covid so they don't test/don't report their tests and don't seek treatment, meaning thousands each week go completely under the radar and further spread the disease. Because we know there is uncertainty, it brings all long covid figures into question. We know that we don't know the full scope of this still unfolding crisis.
Abstract As SARS-CoV-2 has transitioned from a novel pandemic-causing pathogen into an established seasonal respiratory virus, focus has shifted to post-acute sequelae of COVID-19 (PASC, colloquially ‘long COVID’). We use compartmental mathematical models simulating emergence of new variants to help identify key sources of uncertainty in PASC trajectories. Some parameters (such as the duration and equilibrium prevalence of infection, as well as the fraction of infections that develop PASC) matter more than others (such as the duration of immunity and secondary vaccine efficacy against PASC). Even if newer variants carry the same risk of PASC as older types, the dynamics of selection can give rise to greater PASC prevalence. However, identifying plausible PASC prevalence trajectories requires accurate knowledge of the transmission potential of COVID-19 variants in the endemic phase. Precise estimates for secondary vaccine efficacy and duration of immunity will not greatly improve forecasts for PASC prevalence. Researchers involved with Living Evidence Synthesis, or other similar initiatives focused on PASC, are well advised to ascertain primary efficacy against infection, duration of infection and prevalence of active infection in order to facilitate predictions.
#mask up#public health#wear a mask#pandemic#wear a respirator#covid#still coviding#covid 19#coronavirus#sars cov 2#long covid#covid conscious#covid19#covid is not over
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