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brajeshupadhyay · 4 years ago

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Behind Pakistan’s cartographic hallucination on Kashmir lies Imran’s domestic woes, China’s invisible hand

The virus was unmoved by such gimmicks. As the crisis deepened, an alarmed World Health Organisation shot off a letter in June slamming hasty lifting of lockdown in provinces without meeting any of the requisite conditions and expressed concern over Pakistan’s high positivity rate and lack of testing.

Meanwhile, Pakistan’s already fragile, debt-burdened economy is collapsing. According to World Bank estimates, Pakistan is heading towards “major recession”. The New York Times quoted Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, an independent research firm, to report that “up to 18 million of Pakistan’s 74 million jobs could be lost.”

A broke Pakistan is set to become the first large developing country to apply for a debt repayment relief under a G-20 initiative.

Alongside and unsurprisingly, Pakistan’s rickety public health infrastructure is also in a coma. Doctors and caregivers are functioning without basic protective gear and risking public ire to boot.

This is Karachi Civil Hospital. Doctors say over 70 persons attacked it's ER tonight at around 11am. Docs & staff remained unhurt. They say the attackers had iron rods, knives. "KOI CORONA NAHEN HAI. YE SAB DOCTORS KA DRAMA HAI," they shouted. pic.twitter.com/MZsHllxbJ7

— Sameer Mandhro (@smendhro) May 29, 2020

Amid the healthcare disaster, Pakistan is also staring at a food security crisis. Mishandling of the pandemic, lack of government planning, supply chain disruption, unseasonal rains and pestilence may result in a 3.5 million-ton shortfall of wheat, Pakistan’s staple, raising fears that the country is limping towards a famine. It is worth noting that Imran’s popularity was nosediving even before the pandemic. Last year, hardline Islamists hit the streets demanding his ouster. Forced to take a $6 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund in last May — Pakistan’s 13th such bailout since 1980s — Imran had no option but to cut subsidies, devalue further the rupee and raise taxes — all unpopular moves in a struggling economy. While the interventions didn’t work, all that Imran managed to do was to trigger more inflation, slash consumption and witness mass layoffs in private sector. To quote Maulana Fazlur Rehman, leader of Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI-F) who led the protests against Imran last year, “Khan was ‘selected’ earlier but he has now been rejected.” Imran’s ascension to power was widely believed to have been engineered by Pakistan’s all-powerful military, and Rawalpindi was growing increasingly impatient with Imran’s hubris, inefficiency and incompetence. Imran’s botched response to coronavirus, falling popularity and waning influence saw Pakistan Army tighten its grip on the civilian government and squeeze further the space for democracy. At the best of times, Imran was a military puppet. His masters have now clipped his wings and taken full control. All major policy decisions on the pandemic are now being taken either by Rawalpindi or army-backed political appointees. Since March, the military has been overruling Imran and releasing public advisories on army letterheads. Imran is aware and unhappy, threatening abruptly to leave press conferences when questioned on his authority. Scholar Madiha Afzal, fellow of Center for Middle East Policy writes in Brookings, “For a time after his election, it seemed that Khan’s closeness with the military might give him the space to implement the domestic policies that he wanted. It seems that period is over. Khan is now clearly constrained by a military whose role has grown progressively through Khan’s term in office and has expanded to the ambit of domestic policy during the pandemic.” The picture that emerges is of a politician rapidly losing popularity, power, influence and control and increasingly given to ranting in Parliament. To add to his pressure, terror financing watchdog Financial Action Task Force (FATF) has kept up the squeeze. Last October, Pakistan received a “clear warning” from the FATF for addressing only five out of 27 action items to tackle terror financing. The FATF had threatened to blacklist Islamabad unless it does more and does so quickly. Pakistan has managed to get one more extension from FATF until October 2020 owing to the pandemic, but it received more setbacks on this front with the US state department bringing out a report on terrorism in June that continues to designate Pakistan as a “safe harbour for regionally focused terrorist groups.” Then there is Kashmir. India’s decision last year to remove Jammu and Kashmir’s semi-autonomous status and bring the erstwhile state under New Delhi’s direct control effectively buried Pakistan’s dreams of seizing the prized real estate for which it has launched multiple wars against India and used terrorism as a State policy since the 1990s to carry out a relentless proxy war and stoke militancy within Indian borders. Kashmir is not only Pakistan’s “jugular vein” or an article of faith, it is central to Pakistan’s national and ideological frontiers. Pakistan never had operation control over Kashmir that acceded to India during Partition except the portion that it had invaded, but a never-ending battle against India to grab Muslim-majority Kashmir remains the fulcrum of Pakistan’s existence as a nation-state. It also makes space for Pakistan military’s outsized role in its polity since it is deemed to be the only institution that can turn that improbability into a reality. As C Christine Fair, author and scholar of South Asian political and military affairs, noted in her book Fighting to the End: The Pakistan Army’s Way of War, for the Pakistan Army, failure lies not in unsuccessful attempts to wrest Kashmir from India but in abandoning the effort. In perpetual struggle lies victory. New Delhi’s move to abrogate Article 370 and turn Jammu and Kashmir into a Union Territory made it even more difficult for the Pakistan to sell its revisionist agenda back home — a despondency best expressed by Opposition leader Sherry Rehman.

Its not only about inappropriate speeches in parliament. Who will stop your PM from destroying Pakistan? Three more years and nothing may be left. Economy is worse, debts r higher,mafias on the rampage, PIA being cannibalised, Kashmir gone, what’s left ?https://t.co/6LTPk8BfWc — SenatorSherryRehman (@sherryrehman) July 2, 2020

In its latest edition of the Green Book, an internal confidential publication of the Pakistan military containing essays by serving officers and others (mostly for in-house consumption), Pakistan’s chief of army staff General Qamar Javed Bajwa admitted that Balakot airstrikes and abrogation of Article 370 have transformed the geopolitics of the region and restricted Pakistan’s options.

The battle for Kashmir isn’t just an existential totem, it is also the silver bullet to paper over all the cracks of a failing State. Stunned by India’s decision, and hamstrung by lack of options, an unprepared Imran launched a vitriolic campaign against India and threatened nuclear holocaust in a column for The New York Times and even from the podium of United Nations last year, but he had little to show for his efforts.

Not just the international community, Khan failed to gain sympathy for his anti-India campaign even in the Arab world.

Imran’s frustration was palpable. At the UN last year, the Pakistan prime minister admitted that he has failed to find any buyers for his apocalyptic narrative on Kashmir, and there was “no pressure on Narendra Modi”.

The reasons behind Pakistan’s failure to corner India on Kashmir have been explained well by Ashley Tellis, former top US government official and now a senior fellow at Carnegie in a report by London-based Financial Times: “India is seen as a great power in waiting, and nobody messes around with the claims of a great power… The Pakistanis have discredited themselves with their use of jihadi terrorism as a means to change the status quo.”

Imran had not only run out of options, but his inefficacy on Kashmir also had a bearing on Pakistan military’s domestic stature. The people in Pakistan were beginning to see that not only will they never get control over their promised land, their ‘infallible’ army actually had a very weak hand. What damaged Pakistan the most was that India’s move went a long way towards decoupling the adjective ‘disputed’ from Kashmir and made it an issue ‘internal’ to India.

Something had to give. And it did. On the first anniversary of India’s abrogation of Article 370, Pakistan released a “new political map” claiming the entire Kashmir and Ladakh, along with Sir Creek and Junagadh in Gujarat.

Among other oddities, the so-called map also has an “undefined frontier” to let China draw its own line while keeping Shaksgam Valley and Aksai Chin out of its parameters. There has also been another change in nomenclature. ‘Indian occupied Jammu and Kashmir’ is now ‘Indian Illegally occupied Jammu and Kashmir’ — the extra ‘i’ apparently loosens India’s and fortifies Pakistan’s claim.

The political map of Pakistan unveiled by PM @ImranKhanPTI earlier today. pic.twitter.com/q4jyMTNmlB

— Prime Minister's Office, Pakistan (@PakPMO) August 4, 2020

The “undefined frontier” apart — which indicates that Pakistan is petrified of China and has no clue what Beijing will claim tomorrow — the so-called map evidently is Pakistan’s answer to India’s move on Kashmir.

While India has revoked Kashmir’s ‘semi-autonomous’ status — a temporary constitutional measure — abrogated Article 370 and 35-A, bifurcated the state into two union territories of Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh and brought Kashmir under the ambit of Indian Constitution, Imran and his cabinet waited for a year to finally take some coloured pencils and redraw the map to snatch Kashmir away from India.

Depending on how one looks at it, Pakistan’s act was a strategic masterstroke or a fool’s errand. Imran will certainly hope that his countrymen believes the former. Not just ‘one mapmanship’, Imran had more aces up his sleeve to reclaim Kashmir — such as renaming Kashmir Highway in Islamabad as Srinagar Highway.

The claim on Junagadh (that voted to join India in 1947 in a plebiscite when Pakistan received 91 votes) isn’t new. Pakistan’s survey maps have included it on earlier instances unlike Sir Creek but in both of these cases as in Kashmir, Islamabad’s reliance on cartography reflects its helplessness on Kashmir and desperation at home.

At this point, Imran is less worried about his strategic and diplomatic options on Kashmir than in placating the Pakistani public and showing that within a span of a year, he has made some progress in wresting back the prized land. What better way than to redraw a map?

Imran was perhaps inspired by Nepal prime minister KP Sharma Oli, who recently pushed through a new map claiming sovereignty over Indian territories of Limpiyadhura, Lipu Lekh and Kalapani. Oli’s cynical plan had a political motive. Nepal’s beleaguered prime minister is battling to save his seat and political future and saw in the cartographic misadventure a chance to whip up nationalism to sail through the polls.

However, in Pakistan’s cartographic hallucination — that India has dismissed as “ridiculous”, “untenable” and a “political absurdity” lacking in “legal or international credibility” — lies a blunder and a self-inflicted wound.

By claiming the entire Valley, Pakistan has ended up exposing its own lies on Kashmir’s “self-determination” and UN-monitored plebiscite. In one stroke, Pakistan has also invalidated the so-called ‘self-determination’ movement by ‘separatists’ and revealed it for what it is — an asymmetric war planned and executed for decades by Pakistan through ‘non-State actors’ and jihadist forces to create unrest within India’s borders and seize Kashmir.

All Imran and his ‘crayon cabinet’ has managed to do is to bust its own lie and remove the fig leaf of legitimacy.

The dragon’s invisible hand

In dismissing Pakistan’s cartographic aggression, however, India has no reasons to be smug. A coordination on the Kashmir issue between Pakistan and its patron China is evident and increasingly intensifying.

China has never been a disinterested party in Kashmir, and its interventions are getting more frequent in tune with Beijing’s hold over its client State. The strategic importance of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and Beijing’s holding of considerable real estate in Kashmir make China a crucial and influential third party in the Kashmir issue.

There’s one more good reason for China to get involved. Beijing uses Islamabad as a cat’s paw against India, and it is in China’s interest to stabilize Pakistan so that it may play the role Beijing wants it to play.

The client-patron relationship is evident from the fact that China — as ORF’s Sushant Sareen points out — “is not just emerging as the largest debtor to Pakistan but is also the largest investor. What is more, China is Pakistan’s largest trading partner and the lender of last resort to bail out Pakistan from its chronic deficit on the external account. In short, China is virtually the only game in town as far as the tottering Pakistan economy is concerned.”

The Sino-Pakistan coordination on Kashmir since India’s move to abrogate Article 370 has played out in interesting ways. Security Council member China has initiated the issue three times at the United Nations — ostensibly to ‘internationalise’ the dispute at the behest of its iron brother — and while each of these attempts have proven unsuccessful, the calibrated steps leading to the first anniversary is worth noting.

On 27 July, China held a virtual foreign ministers’ meeting with Pakistan, Afghanistan and Nepal — an alternative quadrilateral mechanism bang in India’s immediate neighbourhood — and Wang Yi urged his counterparts from Afghanistan and Nepal to follow Pakistan’s footsteps to promote CPEC and tighten interconnectivity. Chinese economic imperialism in India’s backyard raises New Delhi’s security and strategic concerns.

In addition, as ORF senior fellow Sareen points out in “Alt Quad+ with Chinese characteristics”, China has been openly interfering in Nepal’s political process to ensure Oli’s survival, debt-trapping Nepal with white elephant projects, offering trade deals to Bangladesh that Dhaka can’t refuse end up being dependent on Chinese market and “encouraging Imran Khan to reach out to Bangladesh and move towards normalisation of ties.”

Interestingly, just a few days before the ‘Alt Quad’ meeting was held, Imran made a rare phone call to Bangladesh prime minister Sheikh Hasina and ostensibly discussed Kashmir.

A day after Pakistan released its ‘new map’, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson on 5 August called India’s Kashmir move “unilateral, illegal and invalid” and glossed over a question on Pakistan’s cartographic aggression. On that very day, China initiated the third attempt to stir the Kashmir pot at UN.

These attempts have all been thwarted but, as Syed Akbaruddin, who served as India’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations points out in Hindustan Times, India should be ready for a diplomatic two-front war at the UN.

A short-on-options Pakistan may be blundering its way even more on Kashmir, but the real joker in this pack is China.

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preciousmetals0 · 4 years ago

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Lockdown Pastimes; Novavax Big Time; Travel Stocks Climb

Lockdown Pastimes; Novavax Big Time; Travel Stocks Climb:

Stir-Crazy Investors

We’re all itching to get out and participate in the U.S. economy’s “Great Reopening.” If reports from the Memorial Day holiday weekend are any indication, some of us are a lot more eager than others … I’m looking at you Lake of the Ozarks partygoers.

As the country reopens, now is an excellent time to reflect on some of our biggest lockdown pastimes — one of which could have a major impact on your investing future.

First up, we have comfort spending.

Shopping is by far America’s most popular pastime, and the COVID-19 pandemic is no exception. It’s good to note that silly little things like travel restrictions and social distancing haven’t slowed down America’s appetite for consumption.

“Surprisingly, Americans are spending more money during this time of social distancing than prior to it,” says WalletHub analyst Jill Gonzalez. In fact, Gonzalez notes: “Forty-three percent of Americans are participating in what is called comfort buying.”

For investors, that means profitable returns for companies such as Amazon.com Inc. (Nasdaq: AMZN) and Shopify Inc. (NYSE: SHOP).

Next up, we have online entertainment. I mean, what else are you gonna do after spending all your money while not going anywhere?

Leading the charge here are video games, which saw sales surge 73% year over year in April. In fact, video game spending hit a record $10.86 billion in the first quarter.

Here, you might want to take a closer look at Activision Blizzard Inc. (Nasdaq: ATVI) or Electronic Arts Inc. (Nasdaq: EA).

Also under the heading of online entertainment, we have video streaming and social media. No one benefits more from the unholy union of these two mediums than TikTok.

This China-based social media sensation provides short, user-generated, looping videos and music clips for lip-sync, comedy and talent displays. And if you’re wondering just how popular this seemingly nonsensical idea is … the TikTok app just hit 2 billion downloads during the pandemic.

Unfortunately for investors, TikTok owner ByteDance is a private company. But Great Stuff will keep a close eye on the situation, as the TikTok “fad” isn’t going anywhere anytime soon.

Finally, we have the most impactful distraction during the COVID-19 quarantine: retail investing.

Yes, dear reader, retail mania is taking over Wall Street, fueled by fractional-share trading, no transaction fees and pandemic stimulus checks. With nowhere to go and nowhere better to spend their money, Americans have funneled a considerable chunk of their stimulus checks into the stock market.

In fact, bank transfers into trading accounts ranked behind only savings and cash withdrawals for Americans with incomes between $35,000 and $75,000.

Now, I have to say that I’m proud of y’all for taking the initiative and jumping into the trading world with both feet.

However, we’ve reached a level of concern when it comes to retail investing. At a time when smart money has almost completely pulled out of the market, y’all lead the charge. And, if you’re not careful, you’ll get burned.

It’s not fearmongering … it’s experience! And why would you want to venture into the market without some experience by your side?

Not in the “Gandalf” kind of way — the “Ian King” way. Ian King stays on top of all tipping-point tech trends, no matter the volatility that gets thrown our way. Plus, the guy started trading mortgage bonds on Wall Street at 21. Where else can you find someone like that?!

Click here to learn more about finding your guide with Ian King.

Good: Get in the Zone

When it comes to car repairs, you’re essentially constrained by two things: money and time. Between the recent economic lockdown and the pandemic stimulus checks, consumers have had plenty of both — much to the benefit of AutoZone Inc. (NYSE: AZO).

The do-it-yourself auto-parts retailer reported fiscal third-quarter earnings of $14.39 per share on revenue of $2.78 billion. Both figures slid easily past Wall Street’s expectations.

But the quarter wasn’t all roses and oil changes. “During the third quarter, we experienced the most extreme fluctuations in sales, both negative and positive, in the Company’s more than 40-year history,” AutoZone said in its earnings press release.

AZO stock initially vaulted more than 5% higher on the news, but uncertainty surrounding the company’s “extreme fluctuations” left some investors leaking coolant. Furthermore, AutoZone said that same-store sales still fell 1% during the quarter.

While the results weren’t as bad as many investors (and Wall Street) feared, there’s still a serious volatility concern lingering over AZO’s head.

Better: Vaccines, Vaccines Everywhere!

Are you ready for another insane vaccine rally?

No? Too bad. Novavax Inc. (Nasdaq: NVAX) returned to the headlines this morning, helping to drive optimism that a COVID-19 cure is just around the corner. The biotech announced that it initiated phase 1 and phase 2 trials for its coronavirus vaccine candidate, NVX-CoV2373.

Phase 1 begins immediately and includes 130 healthy volunteers. If all goes well, Novavax will quickly start phase 2 testing with a much larger patient population.

Honestly, Novavax’s considerable rally today appears a bit overdone. The company is entering phase 1 while both Inovio Pharmaceuticals Inc. (Nasdaq: INO) and Moderna Inc. (Nasdaq: MRNA) are already in phase 2 testing.

I still maintain that NVAX is an excellent stock to short, given its lagging position in the vaccine race and the considerable hype in this niche of the biotech sector. That said, if you like backing the underdog, NVAX may be just the play for you.

Best: Blues Traveling

The travel industry went bonkers today. Airlines, cruise lines and you-name-it lines all rallied across the board.

Delta Air Lines Inc. (NYSE: DAL) surged nearly 10%. Carnival Corp. (NYSE: CCL) added almost 12%. Heck, even the pink sheets for German travel company TUI AG (OTC: TUIFF) surged 52%.

Why? Vaccine hopes and reopening dreams.

On Friday, the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) announced that travelers moving through TSA checkpoints last week hit 300,000 for the first time in two months.

While the TSA news was encouraging, this morning’s announcement out of hard-hit Spain was the real spark that ignited the travel sector. The country announced that it will lift its two-week quarantine regulations for foreign travelers starting July 1.

If Spain can start reopening, then the real danger of COVID-19 must be past its peak … right? Combine that with continued progress on the vaccine front and investors surged to get in early on the travel sector’s expected rebound.

The first rule of hustlin’? You either hustle or get hustled.

And you wanna make some big bucks, huh?

That’s right — my mind is still on Main Street’s leap into the retail market for our Quote of the Week. No matter how long you’ve been banking Benjamins in the market, this sudden rush of cash from newbie investors will affect you.

Even Robinhood’s ads are all about the small-stakes hustle these days:

Got .3 shares of tesla stock today. Little by little.

— Robinhood, via Barron’s

Now, I want to be clear here, since a ton of you fine Great Stuff readers out there are the same new investors we’re talking about today. (Welcome to the *$&% show, by the way!)

But … if you’re going to jump into the market, you gotta jump with our jive, right? You gotta pick up some street smarts before wandering the market’s dim back alleys.

Anyway, the point is that no matter if you have 0.3 shares of your favorite stock or 3 million shares … no matter how long you’ve been an investor…

I have just one titanium-plated rule to stick in your trading tool belt. It will separate you from the retail chaff — and give you a leg-up on all those lockdown gamblers-turned-investors: Don’t buy a stock just because everyone else is buying it. You will hear arguments about how “you can’t miss out if you’re ‘in it,’ man!” See the past decade-long bull run for more details.

Now, since the Great Stuff team was in a post-cookout coma yesterday, here’s a bonus Chart of the Week for you that shows my point a bit better.

Thanks to Robintrack.net, you can see the retail investor’s Robinhood revolution for yourself. Right here, you can see the past week’s biggest popularity changes, at least as far as Robinhood stock ownership goes.

Check out the huge spike in Moderna and Delta, with some latecomers to the Aurora Cannabis Inc. (NYSE: ACB) rally not far behind. (Plus, here’s an honorable shout-out to any Luckin owners out there left holding the fraud bag…)

On the right, you can see how Delta’s collapse stacks up to a tsunami of share buying in no time flat:

Now … are these half a million Robinhooders about to bring home the bacon (or tendies) while the smart money sleeps? Is this chart a snapshot right before a “pass the flaming turd” disaster?

Stay tuned; we’ll find out together.

Great Stuff: Let’s Get This Bread!

Before I sign off, I want to say thanks for tuning in to today’s edition of Great Stuff!

We’re only two days away from this week’s installment of Reader Feedback — and we’re calling on you. Bring your rants, raves, crackpot schemes and vaccine dreams — it takes all kinds of greatness to make us Great.

Send us a message at [email protected] with any questions, comments or suggestions you may have. You may just see your email in this week’s Reader Feedback! (Unless you don’t want to share your words with the world, of course … simply let us know.)

Remember that you can always catch up with us on social media: Facebook and Twitter.

Until next time, be Great!

Regards,

Joseph Hargett

Editor, Great Stuff

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goldira01 · 4 years ago

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