#ec popularity poll

[anotherincorrectevillious]

Happy (LATE!!!!) 15th Anniversary of Evillious Chronicles everyone!

I don't have anything particularly funny or creative to post, but I DO have an announcement to make.

I am going to be hosting a sequel to setphies's EC popularity poll!

Same rules, same guests, but with a different layout

Though as you know there a plenty of minor characters in Evillious who have no canon appearance, which is a problem for me cause I wish to make those funny little VS banners things

But that's where I ask for your help!

If you would like your art to be featured in this event (with an @ so it will be linked back to you) then please feel free to submit!

I'll be posting general rules for sending in art when I can but for now, submissions are open, and linked below is a full list of every character that is participating (ignore my deadname this is not negotiable 🔪)

Thanks for listening!

[qqueenofhades]

I just read an article on The Conversation that states: "Today, most data has Trump narrowly beating Biden in the national popular vote, albeit within the statistical margin of error." (Source for that data: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/)

In your opinion, is that true? How can that be possible after everything Trump has done? After the Insurrection? I'm terrified 😕

(For reference, the original article can be found at https://theconversation.com/five-reasons-why-trumps-republican-opponents-were-never-going-to-beat-him-223288?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=The%20Weekend%20Conversation%20-%202888329325&utm_content=The%20Weekend%20Conversation%20-%202888329325+CID_fceedfd21410eb8a7b6fd6e1124d9d54&utm_source=campaign_monitor_uk&utm_term=five%20reasons)

Short answer: no, I don't think it's true.

Long answer: no, I really don't think it's true. Here's why.

Broader context. A Republican has won the popular presidential vote only twice in the 21st century, and in the first of those occasions -- 2000 -- I use "won" very advisedly. We all know, or at least we should, about all the fuckery that went down in Florida with Bush vs. Gore and SCOTUS stepping in to stop the recount (which almost surely would have gone to Gore) and handing Florida, and thus the presidency, to George Dubya Bush by a mere 537 votes. Dubya then did win re-election and the popular vote/EC in 2004, in the throes of patriotic war fervor and the GOP's Swiftboating of John Kerry (who was a pretty terrible candidate to start with). Other than that? None. Zip. Nada. None. Even in 2016 when Trump squeaked out a win (and thus the presidency) in the Electoral College, he lost nationwide to HRC by over 3 million votes. He lost to Biden by 7 million votes nationwide last time. Also, the reason the GOP loves the antidemocratic Electoral College is that it always works in their favor, and because red states with relatively scant population are given the same power in the Senate. That's why California, with 40+ million people, gets two (Democratic) senators, and Wyoming, with 400,000 people, gets two (Republican) senators. There is just no way that red states can get the actual raw numbers to win the popular vote against heavily blue urban population centers. The only one that comes close is Texas, and while it's something of a white whale for Democrats who think fondly that it'll surely turn blue this election cycle (and then it doesn't), it's not giving all its votes popular-vote-wise to Republicans. So yeah. The numbers aren't there. Biden is about 99% certain to win the popular vote, but because this is America, the question is whether the EC will follow.

(Although, I gotta say. In the deeply unlikely event that Biden loses the popular vote but wins the Electoral College -- i.e. the exact same thing Trump did in 2016 -- the right wing would lose their fucking minds and it would be incredibly hilarious. Also, we might finally get some red states willing to sign up to the National Popular Vote Compact, which is just a few ratifications away from going into effect. As noted, the Republicans will cling onto the Electoral College with their last dying breath because it's the only thing that makes them competitive in nationwide elections. If it fucked Trump, they might finally listen to ideas about changing it.)

The media are incredibly biased, and so is Nate Silver. Silver first rose to prominence as an independent geeky Data Guy elections whiz-kid, and was relatively good at being unbiased. That is not the case anymore. He's now affiliated with the New York Times and has started echoing the smugly anti-Biden framework of both that paper and the mainstream media in general. I'm not necessarily saying his data is total bunk, but he's extremely eager to frame, narrate, and explain it in ways that artificially disadvantage Biden (in the same way the NYT itself is all in on "BUT HIS AGEEEEE," just as they were with "BUT HER EEEEEEMAILS" in 2016) And that's a problem, because:

The polls are shit. Like, really, really shit. Didn't we just go through this in 2022, where everyone howled about how All The Data pointed to a Red Wave and then were /shocked pikachu face when this was nothing more than a Red Dribble of Piss (and frankly, the best midterm election result for the ruling party since like, the 1930s?) We've also had major, real-time proof that the polls are showing a consistent pro-Trump bias of 10 or more points, which is a huge error and keeps getting corrected whenever people actually vote, but the media will never admit that, because TRUMP IS WINNING WE ARE ALL DOOMZED!! We heard about how Biden might lose New Hampshire because he wasn't even on the ballot and that would be a critical embarrassment for him. He cruised easily with 68% (all write-in votes and FAR more than any other Democratic "candidate.") Meanwhile, Trump won New Hampshire by about 15% under what the polls had predicted for him (after doing the same and barely squeaking over 50% in Iowa, one of the whitest, most rural, most Trump-loving states in the nation). The number ballparked for Biden in the NV Democratic primary was something like 75%; he got over 90% (and twice as many votes as any candidate in the Republican Primary/Caucus/Whatever That Mess Was). The number for what he was supposed to get in the SC primary was in the high 60% (driven by the media's other favorite "Black voters are abandoning Biden" canard); he absolutely crushed it at 97% statewide. When Biden is winning by whopping margins and Trump is underperforming badly, in both cases by gaps of ten percent or more, it means the polls are simply not showing us an accurate state of the race. This could be because of media bias, bad data, selective polling, inability to actually connect with voters (especially young voters, who are about as likely to eat a live scorpion as to pick up an unsolicited phone call from an unknown number). This also shows up in:

Special elections. We've heard tons of Very Smart Punditry (derogatory) about how Democrats kicking ass in pretty much every competitive election since Roe was overturned in 2022 totally means nothing for the general election. (Of course, if the situation was reversed and Republicans were cleaning up at the same rate, we would be hearing nothing except how we're all destined for Eternal Trumpocracy... wait. no... we're still only hearing this. Weird.) In the last special election in early February, Democrat Tom Suozzi won back his old U.S House seat (NY-03) by over eight points, after polls had given him at most a two- or three-point edge. (Funnily, once again a Democrat did far better than the media is determined to insist, so Politico hilariously called a thumping eight-point win "edging it out.") This represents almost a 16-point blue swing from even just 2022, when The Congressman Possibly Known as George Santos won it by 7 points. On that same night, a Democratic candidate in a Trump +26 district in deep, deep red Oklahoma only lost by 5 points, marking another massive pro-blue swing. This has been the case in every special election since Roe went down. Apparently blah blah This Won't Translate to the General Election, because the media is very smart. Even when Democrats (historically hard to motivate and muster in off-year election cycles, or you know in general) are turning up in elections that don't involve Trump to punish terrible Trumpist policies, we're supposed to think they won't be motivated to actually vote against the guy himself? And not just them, because:

Trump is a terrible candidate. Which we know, and have always known, but now it's really true. We've had up to half of Haley voters stating they will vote for Biden over Trump if that is the November matchup (which it will be). Haley, amusingly, actually outraised Trump in January, because it turns out that the Trump Crime Family's open promise to send every single donor or RNC dollar to pay El Trumpo's legal fees hasn't been a terribly effective message. We had Republicans in NY-03 telling CNN that they voted for the Democrat Suozzi because they're so fed up with the GOP clown show in the House and don't think Republicans can govern (which uh. Yeah. Welcome to reality, we all knew that ages ago too). We have had up to a third of Republican voters saying they won't vote for Trump if he's convicted of a felony before the election (and technically he already has been, but we're still hoping for the January 6 trial to go ahead). Now, yes, Republicans are a notoriously cliquey bunch and might change their minds, but for all the endless bullshit BIDEN SHOULD STEP DOWN BECAUSE DEMOCRATS ARE DISUNITED narrative the media has been pushing like their kidnapped grandmothers' lives depend on it, Democrats aren't actually disunited at all. Instead, Trump is in chaos, the GOP is in chaos, sizeable chunks of Republican voters are ready to vote for someone else and in some cases have already done so, and yet, do we hear a peep about how Trump should step down? Nah. In related news, did you hear that Biden is old?!?! Why isn't anyone writing about this?!?!

Now, I want to make it clear: Trump's chances of winning are not zero, and they are not inconsiderable. We need to face that fact and deal with it accordingly. Large chunks of the country are still willing to vote for white Christian nationalist fascism. Trump still has plenty of diehard cultists and the entire establishment Republican party in his pocket, and it's been made very clear that Putin is bringing the full force of his malevolent Russian fascist machine to bear on this election as well. Case in point: we spent four years hearing about HUNTER BIDEN HUNTER BIDEN SECRET CORRUPTION GIANT SECRET BUSINESS SCANDAL, and it turns out that the GOP's "star informant" has been actively working with Russian spies the whole time and fed them complete bullshit disinformation, which they were eager to repeat so long as it might hurt Joe Biden. (And it would hurt Ukraine, so, twofer! I cannot emphasize enough how much it was all a deliberate collaboration by some of the worst people on earth.)

In 2016, people naively assumed that Trump could never win, and so they were especially willing to throw away, spoil, or otherwise not exercise their vote, or throw purity hissy fits over HRC (likewise fed at the toxic teat of Russian disinformation). That was exactly what allowed Trump to squeak out a win in the EC and put us in the mess we are currently in. If people act in the same way in 2024 that they did in 2016, Trump's chances of winning are drastically increased. So once again, as I keep saying, it's up to us. If we all vote blue, and we get our networks to vote blue, Biden is very likely to win. If we don't, he won't, and Trump will win. It's that simple. We had better decide what we're doing. The end.

[pricechecktranslations]

Why do you think that Banica became as famous as to deserve her own spin off? Do you think any of the other characters could've gotten one?

Banica doesn't have her own spinoff because she's "famous". She has a spinoff because mothy wanted to write one.

Like, don't get me wrong, I'm sure her popularity factored at least a little into his decision making, he is trying to make a living after all (he once posted a poll on Twitter bouncing around a few of his post-EC ideas, one being a Banica series, the other two being the OSS books and a Three Heroes novel), but he's a single individual who is (currently) self-published. I think he made a spinoff surrounding Banica because he likes her character and he likes the direction that the series can take with her.

I don't see how any of the other characters could have gotten one, at least not a spinoff of this type. He's been building Banica into who she is through pretty much the whole series. She is uniquely positioned to be the soul that breaks out on her own and does her own thing, and her character is very much a "roll with the punches" sort that fits well into a multiverse plot. She's also enough of a side-character that her story doesn't feel "finished" with the end of EC, unlike, say, Levia.

edit: To answer the first question--Banica is extremely charismatic and likeable, and she surrounds herself with other interesting characters. Hence, she's popular.

[tanadrin]

Opposition after Trump wins will only be effective if it can coalesce on a single program that can appeal to a majority of the electorate (assuming voting is even allowed in 2026 or later). Since the democrats' loss is going to shatter their credibility beyond recovery, and no third party movement has anything close to majority appeal, it's checkmate by the far right, no?

none of the premises of this ask seem correct to me.

one, even in authoritarian systems, free elections are usually late or even last to go; elections are a major source of legitimacy in the modern era. in the US, they're also administered mostly on the local level, distributed throughout the country, which makes them hard to rig. the bigger worry is orban or PiS-type shenanigans putting the thumb on the scale.

two, the two party system in the US means any opposition to the governing party is de facto united. you don't have to have (like you see in other countries) elaborate efforts at coalition-building between disparate political parties. because there's only one other party.

three, why would a trump victory destroy the democrats' credibility? he is unlikely to win the popular vote. he will certainly not win the EC by an overwhelming margin. reagen won the '84 election by crushing margins in both the popular vote and the EC and it didn't "shatter the credibility" of the democrats as a party. they had majorities in the House in 84, 86, 88, and 92.

trump still has a net -11.8 approval rating. he has never won the popular vote. he is currently trying to distance himself from the core far-right manifesto because it's wildly unpopular. he is also currently fighting with the evangelical wing of his party because they want him to commit to a national abortion ban and he knows that that is electoral suicide. there is no universe where a trump win in november is "checkmate" for the far right, and indeed i think it is quite possible trump wins the presidency but republicans lose the house--if the polls are to be believed, a big chunk of trump's support is coming from people who will vote Democrat down-ballot.

[theshillongtimes]

Three-phase J&K elections from Sept 18, Haryana polls on Oct 1; counting on Oct 4

NEW DELHI, Aug 16: Assembly elections will be held in Jammu and Kashmir after a decade in three phases from September 18, setting the stage for the people of the union territory to elect a government after the scrapping of Article 370 in 2019. The Election Commission also announced that elections to the 90-member Haryana assembly will be held on October 1 and results for both the polls will be declared on October 4. The two assembly elections will be the first popularity test for the BJP and the INDIA bloc following the Lok Sabha polls. The three-phase elections to the 90-member Jammu and Kashmir assembly will be held on September 18, September 25 and October 1, Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar told a press conference.The EC said assembly elections in Maharashtra, which were held along with Haryana in 2019, will be announced later due to security requirements for J&K.He said four elections are due this year and by early next year and since Jammu and Kashmir was not in the picture last time (2019-20) the Commission decided to group two assembly elections together. Besides J&K and Haryana, elections are due in Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Delhi which will be announced after the completion of the the two.

[vamptastic]

Re: understanding third parties. Respectfully, voting 3rd party in the current system is putting the cart before the horse. The electoral college is designed to prevent a third party win, it simply will not happen even with massive voter support, bc electors are already pledged to either main party. It's a shitty, archaic, bullshit system we've inherited, but it's what we've got to work with at the moment.

We have to do the work to dismantle the EC *first* if we want to break the duopoly, otherwise we're just throwing that energy into a bottomless pit.

There is a much better chance of us taking our current frustrations and using them to push hard for ranked choice voting (we already have it in a handful of places) and getting that in place before the 28/32 elections. But certainly not in six months, and not at all if we allow regressives to retake power, not only for the usual reasons but because they're already trying to pre-emptively ban RCV and reinforce the EC bc they literally cannot win + keep power without it.

HI sorry this took so long to respond to my inbox is always glitched out and doesn't display the right number of asks. I don't remember what this is relating to specifically but you do make a good point.

I mostly agree that this election is simply not the right time for a significant third party victory given what West and de la Cruz are polling at (and frankly, while I like West as an author neither are very 'electable'). For a third party to bring their policy concerns fully into the public consciousness, or even actually win the election, a solid candidate, concise and popular platform, and years of campaigning is needed, and we just don't have that right now.

Unfortunately I kind of think the Democratic and Republican parties will just end up having another major policy change/dissolve entirely on their own because both are a complete nightmare mess and we're at the point in the American political cycle where this tends to happen. Don't see either party allowing a candidate I'd approve of to win the primary anytime soon.

It's worth noting that the Republican party is infighting like crazy right now, and has their own third party threats to contend with. So it'd not entirely a bad idea to take some risks if it looks like Trump has a poor chance of winning anyway.

But right now I don't want the Senate and HoR to go red, so I'll probably vote for Biden in the election. Not entirely unconvinced that lying on a poll to scare the Dems is a bad idea, but frankly I probably won't vote in the polls anyway bc my name won't be changed until pretty close to the election (so I won't be registered yet). Next election, I'll probably vote third party, but it depends on who runs next.

I just hope we actually see some change soon. The primaries are fucked to hell and back already and RCV is hardly popular with either party.

[scottguy]

The electoral college was put in place to stop the election of men like Trump in the first place. Intelligent electors were supposed to see the wickedness of a man like Trump and choose to vote against an evil candidate DESPITE winning the popular vote in some states. (The founding fathers rightly did not trust the general population to not get suckered by a guy like Trump. )

But the electors, instead of using their judgment, simply voted the will of a very small majority of people in their state and ignored Trump's unethical history and open admission of sexual assault.

The founding fathers were wrong in that the general population has gone for more ethical presidents in recent history. (Gore, Hillary Clinton)

Politicians have long since found a way to manipulate the EC system by focusing on big "swing states" and ignoring the states with safe polling margins or insufficient EC votes to matter.

There is an EASY fix for our dysfunctional electoral college system!

Simply stop the "winner take all system" which is NOT In the constitution it's just become an arbitrary norm.

Proportion electoral votes as a percentage of the popular vote. For example: Texas has 40 EC votes. If the Democrat candidate gets 48% of the popular vote that state awards .45 x 50 = 18 EC votes for the Democrat candidate and the rest, 22, to the Republican candidate.

This would actually help Republicans in large blue states feel represented and Democrats in more red states! Everyone's vote MATTERS under this system.

It stops politicians from not visiting big states they have no chance of "winning" or worrying about that state's concerns.

This can ALL be done with simple state legislation. We don't even need a constitutional amendment!

It's time to fix our dysfunctional electoral college system, which subverts democracy.

[danidanialsblog]

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[qqueenofhades]

Think what strikes me about something like "we can't vote because the system is rigged! Ban the electoral college!" is the big underlying implication of it.

That there is no multiple solutions or paths, only the one correct path and everything else is worthless.

And that's incredibly frustrating because there are two levels of problems with it:

is the utter dismissiveness of anything other than their specific solution, which ignores how any degree of positive change cannot occur with only just ONE idea, it's usually the result of many ideas that lead to change.

The fact that it feels like they're skipping every step in between the current situation to this end result, or actively fixating on themselves having the correct solution, but only by literally getting everything in between completely wrong in the process.

Like, the latter point in particular is like a complex math equation: Just because you got the right answer doesn't mean you can just ignore every difficult step in between, or just assume that all of the WRONG processes become validated retroactively because you stumbled into the correct answer. You'd literally get failed and be forced to redo the problem if you tried that shit in math.

I saw a poll the other day claiming that support for abolishing the Electoral College had now reached 65% of all Americans. Now, I take all polls, whether good or bad, with a grain of salt, but this does reflect a growing awareness that the EC is a horrible racist anti-democratic dinosaur only applied to the presidential election and only used for electing Republicans who don't win the nationwide popular vote, and that there's a genuine groundswell of support to abolish it. See the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, which could possibly collect enough state-by-state ratifications to go into effect into 2028 (in the best-case scenario). So even all the bitching about how "the system is rigged" (which. WE KNOW! WE KNOW! There's not a single Democratic voter going to vote like WOW I LOVE THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE CAN'T WAIT FOR MY VOTE TO DEPEND ON HOW MUCH IT COUNTS THANKS TO THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE WHEE OLD DEAD WHITE GUYS!) blatantly ignores that a possible seismic change IS possibly in the offing, because people put in the work to make it happen!!! The fact that the EC might soon be superseded or disempowered is FUCKING MONUMENTALLY HUGE!!! It has existed literally since the beginning of America and arbitrated every single presidential election!!! And let me tell you, the people working to make that change and fundamentally reshape American democracy are absolutely not the Online Leftists, whose grasp of civic and political theory starts and ends at "wah the system is rigged I do not vote I am very smart!"

This also reminds me of the recent idiots in my notes complaining that Biden was a) not "genuine" in supporting the striking auto workers, that b) Don't You Know He Broke The Rail Strike (the follow-up where he gave the railworkers what they most wanted with that strike was conveniently never mentioned), or c) that he wasn't "doing it for the right reasons" (whatever the fuck that means). Which accurately reflects their belief that the way you do politics, or praxis, or anything at all, is just by having the Really Goodest Mostest Purest Intentions really hard, and that's it. Like. Aside from the fact that it's impossible to prove why Biden is privately motivated to do anything, we have a long track record demonstrating that he is a person of genuine Catholic faith who has been moving more and more to the left overall, and has been the most pro-union, pro-labor president in American history. So first of all, complaining that "he's not GENUINE!!!!" in supporting the strikers is impossible to prove, and contradicted by actual evidence. But the Online Leftists gotta feel More Gooder Than Him somehow, so.

Likewise: as I said in one of my previous posts about Hillary Clinton: I do not give a fuck if she was privately the most Neoliberal Corporate Centrist Shill Ever To Shill (and as I also said, none of those words means what the Online Leftists think they do). I do not care about the American monarch president's personal feelings, unless they reflect directly on the policy that they make and the real-world effects that it has. I don't care if Clinton killed puppies (or dreamed about killing puppies, which for the thoughtcrime police is equally bad), as long as she appointed 3 new liberal justices to SCOTUS and throughout the courts, instead of the hacks that Trump forced onto the bench and literally everything else he did. In the same vein, Biden could secretly be like "hahahaha fuck all workers BIG CORPORATIONS FOR LYFE but I gotta support the workers and get them their rights so they'll vote 4 meeee" (not that I actually think he is, but still) and hold onto your hankies, children: I DO NOT CARE! Because the tangible real-world effects of that policy that he is working hard on making results in a better economy for those workers and substantial redistribution of capital away from the oligarchs for the first time in a generation! Not to mention, I kind of like the idea that a president decides to make himself most appealing to workers instead of bosses! But for the Online Leftists, if this action isn't done with the Sufficiently Pure Motives, it is Wrong and Bad and Not Good Enough and Blah Blah Biden Sekrit Republican.

Anyway. Yes. That. The end.

[1800nemesissudou]

If shitty, low-quality memes won't convince you to vote for Nemesis, I don't know what will.

(/s if you can't tell)

[that-starlit-wanderer]

The funny thing is, in a "Canada joins the US" scenario* abolishing the Electoral College and (especially) the Senate is probably the only way Republicans could stay competitive.**

If Canada joins as one state, it would have roughly the same number of electoral college votes as California, and would be strongly favored to vote for Democrats (polls suggest Canadians preferred Harris to Trump this year by a 60-21 margin, and even if Trump won all the undecideds that's still a landslide). That advantage would still exist in a national popular vote world but in an EC world it's fatal for Republicans.

If each Canadian province joined as a separate state, that would add a whole bunch of new Senate seats that Democrats would be heavily favored to win and would give them a structural advantage in the upper house.

*Obvious caveat is that even in the fantasy world of this proposal, Quebec would never agree to join the US and would immediately declare independence, so things maybe aren't quite as dire for Republicans as it looks.

**Also the other possibility ofc is that the US would just conquer Canada in a military invasion and rule it as a colony without letting people here vote. But Americans are waaay too nice to do something that awful

Based Canada offers to join the the US only if they abolish the Senate and end the Electoral College, hijacking Trump's ego to have him force the Republicans to embrace commonsense electoral reform and strengthen global democratic liberalism.

[smol-tired-binch-blog]

everyone else is making popularity poll propaganda and I wanted in

[celestial-potato]

Round Four be like:

[meatsnail]

BY ROLLED’S LIGHT I SMITE YOU

[link1n]

I don’t have much doubt that Trump won’t get to 50% of the popular vote, but that matters not at all if he wins the EC. He’s leading in 6 of 7 swing state polls. He only needs 3 of those states.

Don’t be fooled. Chances of a Trump 47 Regime are in the neighborhood of 75%. And that’s not even accounting for the likelihood that a GOPer-controlled House will refuse to certify Biden under any circumstances.

Trump will lose a third popular vote.

[miniaturegardengirl]

posting it again cause the last one didnt show up on the tag. also bc i can