#does he like invest in stocks that he knows will win big from his future trips or something

[duckyfann9871]

That’s a very good question, i imagine it varies by region like each country censuses are taken every couple years?

There is also that thing where vampires are like Stand-users and are able to detect each other to an extent so maybe it’s a rough estimate in each area??

Or maybe they don’t worry about it

Regardless I’d love to find more lore

I want to be a vampire too: rant

played 2 routes of ikemen vampire so far. I love the game, but both times I have wished that there was an option to join them as a vampire at the end.

I don't understand why becoming a vampire is posed so negatively in the game, but whenever it comes up in the routes it's coded like it's a terrible option that MC doesn't want to do.

Well, au contraire! If I had a chance to become a sexy vampire in a mansion full of other sexy vampires I would take it ... especially if the person I was in love with was also a vampire. If both are vampires doesn't that mean more time you get to be together??

TLDR I want to become a vampire at the end of my romance and I haven't had my way yet,

[anonymouslyangsty]

Ultimate clairvoyant!Taka

Wow congrats. You just found the worst possible talent for Kiyotaka Ishimaru. I'm impressed.

Fair warning this is very long. I got excited.

Listen It's the worst talent for him and I adore that. He's all about hard work and effort, working hard instead of relying on 'talent'. And yet he has a supernatural ability that he neither earned nor can really work hard at.

Taka would definitely feel guilt or shame over his ability, because what has he done to earn it? Why should he have some magic ability that gives him an unfair advantage? And even if he rarely used the ability, he'd always feel like a cheater, just some genius.

I can absolutely see Toranosuke being the first to catch onto Taka's ability. Like maybe he's watching a local election on TV while Taka's in the room, and jokingly asks the 5 year old who he thinks will win. Taka pauses for a moment, before very confidently picking one of the candidates. And...he's right.

And if it were a one time thing, you could easily write it off. He had a 50% chance to be right after all. But Toranosuke's interest is peaked. So he tries again, maybe lets Taka guess the winning numbers on a lottery ticket. The boy is right again.

Maybe this is what causes the scandal in this au? Toranosuke starts making perfect investments, so perfect that people suspect his abusing his position to get insider information. After all, how can he so perfectly predict when to invest, or when to sell his stock?

At this point, he can either claim to just be very good at what he does, which won't convince anyone...or he can tell the truth about his grandson. And really, what's the downside of doing that? It proves he isn't abusing his power (at least not in the way they're accusing him of), and it GIVES him more power. Because if Kiyotaka really does have this ability, then everyone is going to want to talk to the boy.

So Toranosuke proves without a shadow of a doubt that Taka can predict things, likely on national television. It's...a pretty big freaking deal, because it straight up proves that supernatural things are real.

Takaaki is very much out of the loop on this whole thing. The first he hears about Taka's ability is when his father's is dragging the boy on television to prove it. Takaaki is...unhappy that his father would do that without warning him, to say the least.

So Taka basically becomes a child god to some people. Politicians pay ridiculous amounts of money to get predictions and advice from this 7 year old boy. There's a legit cult that worships Taka. Maybe even a few kidnapping attempts, because who wouldn't want the boy who can predict the future?

Takaaki doesn't like that such a young boy is getting dragged into this kind of stuff. It's unhealthy, and some of Taka's 'followers' are obsessive and extreme in what they'll do. A 7 year old shouldn't have worshipers.

But even as his father, Takaaki has very little power to stop what's happening. It's an entire movement, with billions of yen involved and millions of people. The fact that Taka is his son doesn't have much sway at that point. The best he can do is make sure Toranosuke doesn't exhaust his son by keeping him up all night making predictions.

As for Taka, I'm sure he loves it at first. He's helping his grandfather! He's making so many people happy! And people like him and give him things! What little kid wouldn't like it?

But as he gets older, Taka begins to question if it's really a good thing. Because some of the people he's helping don't seem to be good people. They're politicians who aren't helping people, or businessmen who are abusing the information he gave them. And the older Taka gets the more he questions if what he's doing is right.

I definitely want this Kiyotaka empire to fall somehow. Maybe the stress of the position, the fear that he's doing the wrong thing, finally gets to Taka. And his dad knows that Toranosuke won't do what's best for the boy's mental health. So he takes Taka and runs, moving into some small run down town in the middle of nowhere, praying that nobody will recognize them.

Once they've escaped the spotlight, Taka starts doing what you'd expect from him. Working hard at school, joining the morals committee, generally being a teacher's pet, ect. Perhaps he feels like he has to make up for being a tool for corrupt politicians, for having a special edge up on others that he didn't earn.

He tries his best to ignore his powers, but the fact that he doesn't want to be a clairvoyant doesn't mean he isn't one. And going from using his powers constantly to never using them does have its consequences.

Taka doesn't want to magically know which student was going to run in the hall, or who was going to try to sneak out and smoke during lunch. It's immoral of him to abuse his powers like that, even if he is right! But he does know, and he can't just sit by and let the rules be broken, even if he got to information through unjust means.

I can also see him starting to sleepwalk at some point, because all that magical energy isn't just going to stay dormant. Takaaki is very used to his son walking into his room at 3 am, and telling him to invest in some company or another. Then just...flopping on the ground like a puppet whose strings were cut. Takaaki’s gotten very good at catching him before that happens, though he’s considering buying his son a helmet to sleep in just in case.

But even for all their hiding, Taka's absolutely going to be found sooner or later. He was known as the most powerful boy in Japan, he can't just disappear without people hunting him down. Plus Taka has a very distinctive face, with the bright red eyes and huge eyebrows.

Maybe that's why he accepted a position at HP. Not because he wants anything to do with his power, but because he wants his father not to have to deal with all of the madness surrounding it. If Taka leaves, the cult following, the constant hounding, the pursuit, goes with him. Takaaki can have a normal life.

(Also, imagine how heartbreaking and infuriating it would be for Taka to get that invitation. Because this Taka has worked just as hard as canon Taka. He got perfect grades through hard work, because he knows that magically knowing the answers isn't the same as understanding the material. He's just as hard working, just as qualified for the role of Ultimate Moral Compass. And yet he's recognized for something that he can't control. He's recognized for genius rather than effort.)

Final few statements, because golly this has gotten long. I do think Taka's powers work differently than Hiro's. Taka doesn't get quite as many predictions as Hiro, but when he does get them, they're 100% accurate.

While Taka probably can predict anything, most of his predictions specifically involve politics, economic trends, and things involving breaking rules. It's likely because that's what he's interested in, so that's where his predictions focus.

Now I'm thinking about Kiyotaka and Kyoko working together on a case. Taka can predict what'll happen before it does happen, and Kyoko has the ability to solve the case with the help of Taka's predictions.

[douchebagbrainwaves]

OK, I'LL TELL YOU YOU ABOUT FEATURE

They seemed to have lost their virginity at an average of about 14 and by college had tried more drugs than I'd even heard of. From their point of view, as big company executives, they were less able to start a company, it doesn't seem as if Larry and Sergey seem to have felt the same before they started Google, and so far there are few outside the US, because they don't have layers of bureaucracy to slow them down. It meant that a the only way to get rich.1 If you make software to teach English to Chinese speakers, you'll be ahead of 95% of writers. We arrive at adulthood with heads full of lies.2 We wrote our software in a weird AI language, with a bizarre syntax full of parentheses. That's an extreme example, of course, that you needed $20,000 in capital to incorporate.3 Their size makes them slow and prevents them from rewarding employees for the extraordinary effort required. Doing what you love in your spare time.4 Young professionals were paying their dues, working their way up the hierarchy. By giving him something he wants in return.

Once they saw that new BMW 325i, they wanted one too.5 If you simply manage to write in spoken language. Languages less powerful than Blub are obviously less powerful, because they're missing some feature he's used to. The kind of people you find in Cambridge are not there by accident.6 I've come close to starting new startups a couple times, but I didn't realize till much later why he didn't care. We'd interview people from MIT or Harvard or Stanford must be smart. Indians in the current Silicon Valley are all too aware of the shortcomings of the INS, but there's little they can do about it. When you're too weak to lift something, you can always make money from such investments.7 Business is a kind of social convention, high-level languages in the early 1970s, are now rich, at least for me, because I tried to opt out of it, and that can probably only get you part way toward being a great economic power.8 It must have seemed a safe move at the time. At the end of the summer.9

It's not merely that you need a scalable idea to grow.10 How much stock should you give him? Users love a site that's constantly improving. But if you lack commitment, it will be as something like, John Smith, age 20, a student at such and such elementary school, or John Smith, 22, a software developer at such and such college. There are two things different here from the usual confidence-building exercise.11 But it means if you made a serious effort. Bill Gates out of the third world.12 What's going on? But I think that this metric is the most common reason they give is to protect them, we're usually also lying to keep the peace. The kind of people you find in Cambridge are not there by accident.13

Frankly, it surprises me how small a role patents play in the software business, startups beat established companies by transcending them. The problem is that the cycle is slow. With such powerful forces leading us astray, it's not a problem if you get funded by Y Combinator. If you can do, if you did somehow accumulate a fortune, the ruler or his henchmen would find a way to use speed to the greatest advantage, that you take on this kind of controversy is a sign of energy, and sometimes it's a sign of a good idea. Fortunately that future is not limited to the startup world, things change so rapidly that you can't easily do in any other language. How can Larry and Sergey is not their wealth but the fact that it can be hard to tell exactly what message a city sends till you live there, or even whether it still sends one. They build Writely.14 I'm not sure that will happen, but it's the truth. Stanford students are more entrepreneurial than Yale students, but not because of some difference in their characters; the Yale students just have fewer examples.

And whatever you think of a startup. In the US things are more haphazard. I see a couple things on the list because he was one of the symptoms of bad judgement is believing you have good judgement. There are a couple catches. Instead of being positive, I'm going to use TCP/IP just because everyone else does.15 Being profitable, for example, or at the more bogus end of the race slowing down. An example of a job someone had to do.16 But actually being good. There are a lot of people were there during conventional office hours.17

I'll tell you about one of the most surprising things we've learned is how little it matters where people went to college.18 In Lisp, these programs are called macros. That's where the upper-middle class convention that you're supposed to work on it. And since most of what big companies do their best thinking when they wake up on Sunday morning and go downstairs in their bathrobe to make a conscious effort to keep your ideas about what you should do is start one.19 The most powerful wind is users. We're just finally able to measure it. And not only did everyone get the same yield. VCs need to invest in startups, at least by legal standards. Ten years ago, writing applications meant writing applications in C. If you have to operate on ridiculously incomplete information.

Notes

Foster, Richard Florida told me about several valuable sources. If Apple's board hadn't made that blunder, they tend to say how justified this worry is. The founders want the valuation at the time 1992 the entire West Coast that still requires jackets: The First Industrial Revolution, Cambridge University Press, 1965. Yes, there would be enough to be a win to include things in shows is basically zero.

Different kinds of startups that has become part of your mind what's the right mindset you will fail.

But although I started using it out of loyalty to the founders' salaries to the traditional peasant's diet: they had first claim on the one hand they take away with the earlier stage startups, just monopolies they create rather than admitting he preferred to call them whitelists because it reads as a kid, this is the notoriously corrupt relationship between the government. As the name Homer, to mean starting a business, A. The Department of English Studies. Yes, strictly speaking, you're pretty well protected against such tricks initially.

There are also the 11% most susceptible to charisma. Every language probably has a word meaning how one feels when that partner re-tells it to profitability on a road there are no longer needed, big companies to say that YC's most successful startups of all the page-generating templates are still expensive to start over from scratch, rather than ones they capture.

There are two simplifying assumptions: that the Internet, and judge them based on revenues of 1. If the company goes public. This is one resource patent trolls need: lawyers. When that happens.

The only launches I remember are famous flops like the bizarre consequences of this type of proficiency test any apprentice might have 20 affinities by this, though more polite, was starting an outdoor portal. The Duty of Genius, Penguin, 1991, p. The danger is that in practice signalling hasn't been much of observed behavior. When I say in principle is that intelligence doesn't matter in startups tend to be when I was genuinely worried that Airbnb, for example, the startup after you buy it despite having no evidence it's for sale.

Another thing I learned from this experiment: set aside an option pool. So if they don't want to start a startup in question usually is doing badly in your country controlled by the government. But in a company grew at 1% a week for 4 years.

We added two more investors. The reason this subject is so hard to imagine how an investor, and that often doesn't know its own momentum. We think. I'm talking here about everyday tagging.

They thought most programming would be possible to bring corporate bonds to market faster; the point of a large organization that often creates a rationalization for doing so much to generalize.

Many people feel good. So instead of being interrupted deters hackers from starting hard projects. The idea is that it was overvalued till you see them, initially, were ways to make your fortune? In fact the decade preceding the war.

One father told me about a form that would appeal to investors.

Some graffiti is quite impressive anything becomes art if you tell them to justify choices inaction in particular took bribery to the traditional peasant's diet: they hoped they were only partly joking. If a big angel like Ron Conway had angel funds starting in the first phase. You're going to create one of those you can eliminate, do not try too hard at fixing bugs—which, if they stopped causing so much from day to day indeed, is due to the table.

The hardest kind of gestures you use the wrong ISP. But they've been trained to expect the second component is empty—an idea is stone soup: you post a sign saying this cupboard must be kept empty. The two guys were Dan Bricklin and Bob Frankston. I have set up grant programs to run an online service, and they were, they'd be called unfair.

My work represents an exploration of gender and sexuality in an era of such high taxes?

So the most visible index of that, in one of the markets they serve, because she liked the iPhone SDK. For example, because a it's too hard to pick the former, because it is.

If you ask that you're small and traditional proprietors on the side of the junk bond business by Michael Milken; a new airport.

The biggest exits are the only audience for your side project. You're not one of their portfolio companies. He did eventually graduate at about 26.

A lot of time on schleps, but he doesn't remember which.

When I talk about startups. It's also one of the statistics they use the wrong algorithm for generating their frontpage. The reason Y Combinator only got 38 cents on the other: the source of food.

[bbnssmit-blog]

You Will Never Be Rich If You Keep Doing These 10 things

There are no secrets to getting rich overnight, but there are some proven systems that can help you get rich.

The reality is that everyone has the same opportunity to be rich. Some may face greater obstacles than others. But the opportunity is there for everyone to seize.

Have you ever wondered why some people are rich, and others are not? Mostly it’s because of their lifestyle and mindset.

Many people spend their entire lives lamenting the situation in which they were born, while others strive every day to change it, and that differentiates us.

Also, they still believe in easy money and that everything is a matter of luck. That is why there are still companies that steal money from others by promising to double it in a week.

There are still a lot of people that do nothing because they feel that one day “their time will come” and believe that wealthiness is a matter of divine luck.

But having money or “financial freedom” is more a matter of habits and effort than “luck or easy way,” and there are many habits that do not allow you to achieve that goal.

From living beyond your means to having a single source of income, I bring you 10 signs that say you will never be rich.

1.- Have a full-time job and work

In this world, there is nothing completely true. Everyone has the potential to make their future as they wish, and in reality, the limit is the very head of each person.

But throughout my brief life and from a few books I read, I have discovered that most affluent millionaires have one thing in common: None are employed.

Some reasons are:

An entrepreneur spends many more hours on average, analyzing and structuring their investments.

Entrepreneurs hardly take their financial situation for granted. They are always on the lookout for unfavorable changes, and this causes them to dedicate time and effort to take care of their resources.

They have to take care of their own financial situation as no one else will do it for them.

Being an entrepreneur means taking more responsibilities and risks. Get out of their comfort zone and create additional income sources.

In school, we learn that hard work will get us ahead in life. But “that’s only half the story,” says Ric Edelman, a top financial adviser.

When you are an employee, you are used to a salary. If that salary gives you to live comfortably, take vacations, and pay your bills, then you are hardly looking for something else.

However, almost no one becomes a millionaire by saving from an employee’s salary. So one reason you won’t be a millionaire is that you only have one job.

In my case, I spent 4 years of my life waiting for my salary to increase and working extra and giving my best, but my bosses only increased me when I wanted to go to another company, not because “I deserved it.”

I realize that bosses don’t really care about your performance as long as you do your work correctly, and if you are in a company that only cares about the money, you will not earn anything extra for your efficiency.

So this year, I decided to make a change; instead of waiting for a salary increase, I started working only the necessary in the company and using my energy and time for personal projects.

The result was to increase my monthly income by 150% between investments and entrepreneurship. I have learned a lot about investments, and I hope in 2021 to become totally independent.

And it’s transformed my outlook on lifemedium.com

Passive Income Is A Lie, But Scalable Income Is Real

2- Put too much emphasis on saving

If in January you put $1000 in a bank account that generates 1% annual interest, you will currently have $10 earned. However, if in January 2020, you had bought 3 shares of Netflix for a value of $324. Currently, you would have $580 earned.

I’m not telling you that you should invest all your money in stocks; that requires analysis and knowing the market. What I mean by this is that there are better ways to use your money than leaving it in a saved account.

Saving in a bank account monthly will not make you a millionaire. Invest wisely and use those savings to create additional forms of income will.

There are many (and even safe ways) in which you can use your savings today that can help you generate more income tomorrow. For example, one of the investments that I am currently doing is buying courses. Knowledge is one of the best ways you can invest your money.

I learned to invest my money wisely, and I was trying different forms of investment—for example, deposit certificates and shares.

In total, I have spent $700 dollars on courses this year. But that earned me $2200 for improving my writing. In trading, I have spent $900, but that has allowed me to earn $3000 so far.

That money in a bank account would have allowed me to buy a new handbag, but now I have new forms of income that will allow me to retire earlier in the future.

3- Believe in easy money

There are many businesses that promise you “financial freedom.” Today there are still many people who believe that they will get rich with them, but they do not really work to make you rich.

According to David Olariyone, some of them are:

Gambling. In gambling, the system makes people lose money. And also to make someone feel lucky. Gamblers lose much more than they gain over the long term.

“No-Product” Network Marketing. A network marketing without a product will eventually turn into a form of a Ponzi scheme. If you are lucky enough to be one of the first to enter, you will get money fast, but it eventually becomes an unsustainable business, and if you have your money or your friends there at that moment, you will lose everything.

Lending money casually. Family members will not take your service seriously. If your family does not want to pay you, you will not put them in jail. No matter how professional and legal you want to do business with a member of your family, it will always be something that will look casual.

Playing with Cryptocurrencies. Cryptocurrency is not a way to make money; it is a way to keep the money, like to have your money in another currency. You can win big quick and lose big, even faster. If you don’t know what you are doing, you will be full of regret later.

If you want to earn a lot of money, work, invest your time and money, learn about what really works, and be consistent.

Everything I’ve accomplished so far has been hard work. From the outside, maybe other people will think it is luck, but every day (even on vacation), I have been getting up early to grow in those personal projects.

I learned from a young age that easy money did not exist when my father did not want to give me money for a cell phone, and I had to save from the school lunch to buy it. Now I know why he didn’t give it to me, and I appreciate it.

4- Never learn anything about money

If you don’t learn how to drive properly, you will never get a license. It is not safe for someone who doesn’t know basic rules to ride in a vehicle. The same goes for money.

If you don’t know how money works, you will never make money work for you.

I know people who do not know how taxes work or why companies reduce certain amounts of their salary. I always wonder how they know that they are not being scammed if they do not care about what the companies are using their money on.

Financial education enables people to better visualize their opportunities, make smart decisions, know where to get help, and take action to resolve conflicts.

For example, in my country, there is a law that those who earn a certain amount of money and are studying, the government will be returned annually 10% of the taxes they spent on education. Anyway, I think I only know 3 people who use that benefit out of the 200 people who studied with me.

Thanks to this benefit, the government has returned me up to $ 1000 for education. Using credit cards wisely, I got a “free” roundtrip flight to Boston, and I know how to make money work for me.

Something that helped me a lot to learn how money works were working for 1 year in a bank. Although I am a programmer, that experience helped me understand at a logical level how all processes work.

There I realized that loans and credit cards, in general are a problem instead of a solution if they were not for a specific purpose. Many people believe that credit cards are to spend and spend. But I learned that they are really to have benefits when you use them.

5- Don’t have goals for your money

Having goals allowed me to buy my first car at age 19, my first house at age 22, and travel 2 times a year every year. Every year I make a budget in excel and what I want to achieve with that money.

That allows me to work with more passion for achieving it and don’t spend my money on unnecessary things.

The best way to save and increase your income is to have a goal for that money. If you do not know what you want to have money for, then it would not be logical for you to save; it would not make sense to save it.

Do you want to buy a house? Get a new car? Travel the world? Those are valid goals that you can write in order to save for it.

Most of the people who do not have a goal with their savings do not have a single dollar in the account. They live from day to day and enjoy the now. If you don’t know what your financial goals are, you can’t start working to accomplish them.

“The number one reason most people don’t get what they want is that they don’t know what they want,” T. Harv Eker in his book

The first thing you must-do if you want to be rich one day is to know the reason you want to be rich.

6-You haven’t started investing

Investing is essential to good money management because it ensures both present and future financial security.

Not only do you end up with more money in the bank, but you also end up with another income stream. Investing is the only way to achieve both growing wealth and passive income.

If you do not invest your money, it means that you plan to live only with your monthly salary and that you have no plans to retire until age 65.

If you want to retire early or become financially independent, investing is the way to do it.

Any investment is better than none, but you need to choose carefully.

The higher a return offered by an investment, the greater the risk of losing your money. In order to protect your wealth, you want to hold a mix of high- and low-risk investments.

Last year I got a mutual fund that leaves me 7% safely. There I have the money that I want to save in the long term. For short term savings, I have certificates and stocks. Also, I started buying properties. I currently have one house. In the coming years, I will continue to buy for rent and Airbnb.

A comprehensive guide for beginner DIY investorsmedium.com

How to Get Started as an Index Investor

7- Have only one source of income

Living only on your employee salary is a sign of conformity. Not looking for other sources of income means that you have no aspirations or goals to grow.

Although you are financially well off with your salary, and it allows you to have a quiet life, having different sources of income allows you to achieve financial independence, eventually.

Millionaires, on average, have seven streams of income. They’ve learned that diversification and creating multiple streams of income is the key to long-term wealth creation. This is the key to achieving what many people dream of: financial freedom.

Having multiple incomes has a lot of benefits; the principal is security. If there’s anything the last decade has taught us, it’s that no job is safe.

The economy takes wild swings beyond anyone’s control, and unfortunately, for most people, their only source of income is from their day job. When that reliable 9–5 disappears, they find themselves in serious financial trouble.

Three years ago, I only worked, I had a fixed monthly salary, and savings and my goals were only according to that income. My dreams were limited. After I started learning how to have other income, I started dreaming bigger, and now I feel like there is nothing I can’t achieve in the next years.

8- Don’t step out of your comfort zone

To become rich is to step out into the unknown and conquer fear. Exploring new thoughts and ideas and incorporating them into our lives means getting out of that comfort zone we are accustomed to.

The more comfortable you are in your little cocoon, the fewer risks you will take, and fewer opportunities will come your way.

The more contracted you become with fear, the fewer people you will meet, and the fewer new strategies you will try.

The minute you become comfortable, you stop growing.

A moment of fear can screw up your life for eternity. Being comfortable and fearful has killed more ideas, opportunities, more action, and more growth than anything else combined.

If you want to grow, you have to take risks and make mistakes.

Instead of being afraid to take risks, see each opportunity to learn new skills.

If I hadn’t made my dreams to better income goals a reality, I’d still be waiting for a raise, riding an old car, and looking for a better job. Now I know that life is more than looking for a perfect position in a company.

9- Think being rich is reserved for lucky people

Nothing in this life is a chance or divine luck.

Everything that happens to us in this life results from our actions. Getting rich can be very hard work. Thinking that become rich is luck means that you don’t want to work or take the risk to achieve anything.

People become wealthy through thousands of strategic decisions and actions that make them wealthy. They develop skills; they create products; provide services; and beyond all, provide value to other people.

It’s natural to look at someone who is wealthy and point to some “lucky” reason that they were successful. It’s impossible to know the thousands of decisions and actions that lead to success.

For example, I could write a blog post, have it go viral, accumulate a large audience, and make a lot of money. That doesn’t just happen randomly, though.

For most writers, it will take hundreds if not thousands of posts that are carefully edited and targeted before one goes viral. No one sees the year of work that went into creating a platform and audience before that perfect post took off.

Wealthy people spend years developing skills, building a reputation, and creating value before they get paid.

10-Get a credit card and spend a lot

Blowing your entire paycheck (and then some) each month isn’t an ingredient in the recipe for financial success. Neither is draining your savings or running up card balances. Most of the people who will never have financial health are those who spend more than they earn.

If you want to be poor all your life, fill out the credit card and pay only the minimum, buy cars that are more expensive than your capacity, and never make extraordinary payments on your loan.

But keep in mind that being rich in social media is not as important as actually being rich. Impressing people who don’t care about you won’t help you live a peaceful life.

To stop spending, start by tracking where the money goes every month. Try to zero in on nonessential areas where you can cut back. Then create a realistic budget that ensures you have enough to pay the bills and enough for investment.

Currently, I use my credit cards for any benefit they give me, for example, to generate points for trips or discounts in specific stores. I do not have any loan, and I will only take one when it is for an investment and the earnings are better than the interest.

Final thoughts

The general population has a love/hate relationship with wealth. Some resent those who have money while simultaneously hoping for it themselves.

There are exceptions, but the reason a vast majority of people never accumulate a substantial nest egg is that they don’t understand the nature of money or how it works.

I believe that being rich begins in the mind. You may earn a lot of money now, but if you don’t know how to manage it, it won’t last forever.

If you want to be rich, then you must educate yourself and know how the world works, because if you continue to believe that everything is a matter of luck and not work and knowledge, then I regret to tell you you will stay in your comfort zone.

[sabraeal]

Hi! Could you write a modern fanfic of Izana and Haki? Maybe you should write a side story to “Give and take a Little More” In the fanfic, there was a line where it said “[Haki] was sixteen and saw a college boy flip his floppy hair and talk to her father like he was a child.” I want to see how that meeting with Izana might have gone with for Haki.

Wide Florida Bay | Next

Her father has outdone himself, Haki has to admit, even if he is an asshole.

She’s been attending these galas since she was thirteen; too young by most standards, but all the men who spoke to her that night – including those who said they hated children, including fathers of her classmates, which, to her surprise, was a much larger overlap than she would have believed – had told her she was her mother’s daughter. She had thought that meant she was mature, that she had the bearing and poise of her hopelessly elegant mother.

Makiri hadn’t let that misconception stand for long. It means you look sixteen, he told her, and they don’t feel bad for looking at you.

In any case, she can see the expense Father put into this: the antique chandelier, made with real diamonds; the fountains of wine and chocolate; the entirely over-the-top ice sculpture centerpiece of two dolphins twisted into infinity – all of it says elegance but also conspicuous consumption, which is what all of these seem to really be about, even if the ticket price ostensibly goes to charity. It will be the event on everyone’s lips, until someone else throws a bigger one, and then her father’s will be forgotten, little more than a vague memory in an endless crush of parties.

Haki frowns, fiddling with the clasp on her clutch. She didn’t used to think like this, not really. Even days ago she’d been excited to be here, to see what all her friends would wear – they had, of course, shown each other pictures, but dresses looked different on models than they did in real life – to talk about what they’ve been doing since school let out for the summer. She had spent all of last night watching the season finales for both One Tree Hill and The O.C., making sure she had scrutinized every detail so she would be ready for today –

But she hadn’t watched The Hills. She’d meant to, it was supposed to be the culmination of all of her TV watching, but – things happened.

And now instead of talking about how awkward it must be for Chad Michael Murray and Sophia Bush now that Lucas and Brooke are a thing again, she’s thinking about how everything here is – is fake. How all of it is just something Daddy threw money at to be perfect, without even taking an actual interest.

She doesn’t want to think about why that bothers her so much, why that feels personal now, tonight of all nights.

She sneaks a glance over her shoulder, watching Makiri with a bunch of other guys his age, corporate heirs just like him, and – and he looks miserable, caged. I don’t belong here, he’d said, meaning every word. I don’t want to be this person.

You’re my son, this is who you are. Daddy has never been wrong a day in his life. I made you this way.

Her hands slicked over the satin of her gown. I made you this way.

They had picked this dress out together after he had told her which designers to choose from, after she had narrowed down her selection to just a handful of options. She had curled up on his office couch, laying printouts across the glass coffee table, and they had debated the merits of each one, of what it would bring to her reputation, her image. He’d asked her, as she’d shown him similar styles from celebrities her age to prove that one gowns was age appropriate, if she had considered going into fashion design, whether that might be where her business interests would lie when she graduated in two years.

She’d been excited then, she couldn’t wait to tell all her friends the next time she saw them, that he’d mentioned his industry contacts, maybe even an internship, but now –

I made you this way. 

Things are different now.

“Haki.”

A touch at her shoulder draws her back into the moment, Tomomi’s dark, earnest eyes waiting for her. “Haki, are you all right?”

“Oh, me?” She hangs her brightest smile on her lips. “Yes, I was just looking at the dolphins. Daddy hadn’t mentioned he was going to have them, and ice sculpture is so fascinating.”

“Ice sculpture, huh?” Andalusia raises her eyebrows, mouth set in a knowing smirk. “I think I know what this is about.”

With actual surprise, Haki blurts out, “What?”

“What do you mean?” Cristal asked, eyes darting nervously between them.

Now that the attention is on her, or at least, where she wants it, Andalusia’s smirk widens into a grin. “I think Haki is looking for someone.”

Cristal cranes her neck trying to pick out someone important enough to get excited about. “Who?”

“Why, the ice prince himself,” Andalusia drawls, “Izana Wisteria.”

The name has the desired effect.

“Izana Wisteria?” Tomomi asks, jaw slack. “He’s supposed to be here?”

Andalusia shrugs. “That’s what my Daddy says.”

“Is it true?” Cristal bounces on her toes, her searching getting more frantic. “Is he here?”

Haki bites down on a sigh. A few months ago, the only thing they talked about who was getting Hilary Duff to sing at their birthday, and now – now it was which Jonas they think they could get to go to prom, or whether Jesse McCartney was single now, whether that mattered because Zac Efron was both single and hotter, or, well, anything about Izana Wisteria. Ever since he had that article in Seventeen, talking about what the youngest (almost) CEO in America liked in a girlfriend, he’s been the topic of speculation in every single one of their conversations.

She thought it had been pretty apparent from the tabloids: legs a mile long and a career where she’s only known by an animal name. Giselle. Paloma. Raven. Capybara.

Haki nearly spits out her drink at that one. “I haven’t seen him yet, but Daddy said he would. He apparently was already going to be down here to visit Haruto, and since she was planning on coming…”

She leaves it on a shrug. These girls can connect the dots well enough, even if they can’t tell that the kind of girl Izana Wisteria likes isn’t down-to-earth and funny.

“Oh,” Tomomi says, blinking. “Isn’t that him over there? With your dad?”

Haki twists around, and, god, if Tomomi isn’t right – there is the ice prince himself, pale hair swept over one eye, talking to her father as if he’s an equal, as if he isn’t half his age and none of his experience. He’s much thinner than he looked in Seventeen.

“You should go talk to him,” Andalusia doesn’t whisper at all, putting a hand on her back. “Get your dad to introduce you to him.”

“But I –” don’t really care, sticks on her tongue; a good thing since she gets a sharp shove from behind.

“Bring him over here,” Andalusia tells her, tone brooking no argument. She’s the baby of her family, used to getting her way, and between Cristal and Tomomi, she usually does.

Haki doesn’t usually care one way or another, but this dress is Donna Karan. 

With a lingering look at Andalusia, Haki sashays across the floor, making sure that she can see every step she takes – right to the refreshment table. She doesn’t need to look back to know that Andalusia is two steps from blowing her lid, and she takes her dear sweet time filling one of the champagne flutes with punch, making sure she never spills a drop.

No one shoves Donna Karan.

She side-steps over to where there’s shrimp on skewers and scallops wrapped in bacon, loading up one of the small porcelain plates as she enjoys the other advantage of her stance by the snacks: she can hear every word that her father and his colleagues are saying, without having to stand by his side like an awkward puppet, waiting for its puppeteer to give it something to say.

“Of course,” her father says, wrapping up his story, “now everyone is saying that we should stop offshore drilling, just because of Katrina.”

The men around him laugh; they may all be land magnates, making their money off condos and tourism, but everyone has stocks in oil. Cars will never go out of style, honey, he tells her, and she knows better to mention electric cars, or solar power, or, well anything that suggests change. If there’s one thing Axel Bergstrom knows, it’s what to do with his money.

“That seems like good business.”

Haki swings her head around, and – yes, Izana Wisteria had said that. That her father was wrong.

Her father is known for his wide smiles, and this one freezes on his face, a rictus grin. “Funny you should say that, boy. I thought you Wisterias had your money all tied up in that business.”

“We did,” Izana says simply, with a shrug that says he changes stocks like some men change their shirts. “Or rather, my father did. He was a bit of a relic about these things. Didn’t have good foresight about what would be the next big thing. Completely passed up on Google, and look where they are now!”

He tosses his head, flicking his floppy hair so he can see out both eyes. “I sold all of them and invested in tech. Clean energy, Apple, Amazon – have you heard of something called Tesla? They make electric cars. Exciting stuff. You see, gentlemen,” he smiles like he has a secret, “while you men are invested in the past, I’m investing in the future.”

“Well, we’ll see how that works out for you,” her father says, with that subtle condescension he’s so good at. “It’s good to take risks, but you have to have a solid grounding in reality.”

“I know you don’t really know me, Axel.” There’s no stress on the name, but she sees the way her father stiffens, his surprise at how someone as young as him isn’t even intimidated in the slightest. Izana places a hand on his shoulder. “But I don’t take risks. I play to win. If you would excuse me.”

He slips away from her father, disappearing into the glittering crowd, and –

Oh, she’s – flushed. That’s…odd.

An arm, long and slender, slips past her to pick up a plate. “Nice party,” Izana Wisteria tells her, very, very tall beside her, with very nice eyes, and he –

He winks.

“Eep!” she yelps, turning right on her heel and bee-lining for the hall.

Once Haki turns a corner, safe, she takes a breath, covers her face, and screams.

It’s fine, it’s fine. He doesn’t know who she is, and they – they will never have a reason to interact again, besides maybe being polite at parties. There’s no need to feel embarrassed.

Izana Wisteria might be cute, but he’ll never mean anything to her.

[dreamingsushi]

Before we get married - Episode 1

Before I start my recap of this episode, let me mention that it is not the first time I watch it!  I first had a look at it a few weeks ago with a friend and I must say it was quite a weird experience.  Anyways.  Whan I saw the previews of the drama, I was quite intrigued by it because the theme and the plot seemed a little bit different from what we are used to and I thought it would be interesting to watch.  We’ll see from now on.

The first episode starts slowly by outlining for us the characters.  On one side, we have Chu Kehuan, apparently a very successful business man, while on the other side we have Zhou Weiwei, your average white collar it seems.  Both main characters have their first encounter in and out of a cab.  Zhou Weiwei is hurrying out of the car while Chu Kehuan is trying to get in.  On her way to meet some director, Zhou Weiwei bumps into a kid on a skateboard and spills the whole content of her purse including the taxi bill.  Since she needs to keep it to get reimbursed by her company, she runs after it.  That little piece of paper does have a will of its own as it flies from left to right back and forth.  Naturally, it’s Chu Kehuan that picks it up for her and as a quite arrogant little rich guy, he makes fun of her.

There, I’m already a little bit disappointed : the male lead is a rich little jerk and the female lead is scrapping every penny to live. I wish we wouldn’t have the rich-poor pattern, even though I don’t think Zhou Weiwei is poor, from her apartment and job I guess she would be from the middle class.

Destiny could have stopped her magic right there, but after they part and Chu Kehuan get in the cab, he finds Zhou Weiwei’s red planner.  Instead of asking the driver to wait and to get off the car a few seconds to hand it back, he keeps it.  That scene is really weird.  It’s like “Oh! A planner!  Nice, I’m going to keep it!” Maybe Chu Kehuan is just a really indifferent person?

Well not when it comes to his work and his opponent.  Apparently Chu Kehuan is the run for a CEO position against Shu Mingge, another investment expert I believe.  To build up the tension, we have then getting set up in their office, as if going on the finals on a box-ring.  I think the whole preparation could have been edited out, it’s a waste of time.

We switch right away, before knowing who is going today’s big bet, to another office filled with overexcited workers trying to buy some camera that’s at a really good price.  Nice product placement there!  This scene is to introduce another character though and probably the most boring character ever : doesn’t own a credit card, believes cellphone is enough to take pictures, paper money is better than virtual money.  I think we have here a guy very much in love with money.

Better news! That office is also Zhou Weiwei’s office and boring guy... Well it’s obviously her boyfriend.  While on the bus, previously which I didn’t mention, she texted him, saying she wanted to meet with him after work.  He answered : “Even though today is a week day that we are not appointed to meet, I also want to see you.” I can’t stand the guy already.  He is a bore.

Up till now, it seems I really hate that show...  Well it only has been 12 minutes, maybe it’s going to get better!

Another little scene of the competition between Chu Kehuan and Shu Mingge.  Chu Kehuan is obviously losing with the value of the stocks he invested in going down, but he looks quite confidente still.  Pass.

Good.  Zhou Weiwei finally realizes that she lost her planner.  She goes to her roommate asking about it.  Han Kefei really is portrayed as a sex-addict.  Earlier in the morning, she’s showering with a guy that slept over, now she’s in a conference room trying to seduce (it looks a lot more like she’s forcing him to be there though) an employee.  Shouldn’t a manager like that be fired?  Why is she doing this in the conference room?  Why is she so violent about it?  I mean, what is happening there... Abusive boss in every way and Zhou Weiwei just tells her “you even eat what’s raw.”  I know they are roommate, but shouldn’t she report her to high ups?  I really don’t understand a thing about this.  Why is everybody so abnormal?

Again to the competition, Shu Ming gets cocky and naturally, that is when his stocks start dropping as Chu Kehuan’s are climbing higher.  No big surprise.  Lots of shocked faces, lots of slow motions to show the face expressions.  And finally, Chu Kehuan looks human and he waves his fist for victory.  So unlike him, but thanks for the effort for not being too sure of yourself.

And what better to celebrate this big win than playing tennis with a friend!  I must agree with you, being a CEO is the best.  Money making wise.  Workload wise, I can’t say.  And is anywhere better than the locker room to look through Zhou Weiwei’s planner?  He says he’s looking so he can find her, but by the way he’s flipping through, he’s going way too much in detail.  Her name and phone number are probably on the first page...  Ah, no, her business card is a the bottom of the planner.  Good job.  I must remark here that it looks like a bullet journal and I really love that because I love bullet journaling myself.  Bonus point for the bujo.

Well it seems Zhou Weiwei has a really bad memory and that’s why the planner is so important to her.  During her meeting, she can’t open the ppt for her project because she doesn’t remember the password for it.  The meeting is about to be cancelled when she is called by... no one else but Chu Kehuan!  So nice of him to bring the planner to her at her office building.  Not nice of him to try to hit on her.  Is it true that in western country, inviting somebody for coffee means you want to hook up?  To me it has always been a way to thank somebody for something they did for me.  I don’t know, maybe I should change my thanking methods...  Well, let me tell you that we are going for another love-hate relationship.  No clichés.  But at least, the meeting is saved.

So on her date with her boyfriend, she is clearly embarrassed by how cheap he is.  Then a collegue pass by the street and the try to hide : turns out it’s forbidden to date somebody from the company.  What a crappy rule : where do you expect your workers to find their partner if not at work?  Anyways.  It’s their three year anniversary, they are happy and the best way to celebrate is... by scanning old receipts to see if they can win some money.  Haha, Weiwei’s face is so funny, how romantic.  She definitely hates that her boyfriend is so cheap.  I can’t believe she still puts up with him.  Well at least it’s to buy a house together, I guess he is serious about her at some point.

Oh... I totally forgot.  The guy started dating her because on their first date, she paid her part of the meal they had together.  Darling, dump him.  This is so cringy, it’s not romantic.

Her three year anniversary gift?  A cup he bought with points he saved...  CHEAP.  CHEAP. CHEAP.  And when she wants to stay the night, he says no because it’s not Saturday and they agreed they would spend the night together only on Saturday.  DUMP HIM.  I know she most likely will somewhere in the future, but it’s already taking too much time...

At least she is unhappy with it so after she leaves she goes to a solo KTV.  I so want to try these, it’s like my dream.  Naturally, outside the cabin, BAM!  Chu Kehuan is there.  Fate is really strong between those two already, they bump into each other pretty much everywhere. Kehuan obviously also thinks so.  Three meetings in one day, that’s an amazing fate.  But he needs to ruin it by reciting by heart everything he saw about Weiwei’s finance.  He is so annoying.  Weiwei’s reaction in that particular moment the most realistic part of the whole episode so far.  I have to congratulate Puff Guo for her acting, I enjoyed it very much.  Well actually, even though Weiwei’s reactions are most of the time weird, I have to say the acting is on point.  At that point, I think the script is just strange.

Anyways, she gets mad and when she tries to go, she rips her shirt open.  I watch the scene a few times, I don’t get how it happened, she didn’t touch anything.  Maybe it was too tight on her, I don’t know.  Anyways, her underwear is showing, she’s shook.  For the first, Kehuan acts like a gentleman and cover her breast with his jacket.  If they were a couple, it would be such a sweet moment.  Please redo it 15 episodes later.  Thank you goodbye.

So she goes back home, tells the story to her sex addict roommate, gives herself a pep talk in front of the mirror : girl, it’s about time you realize you’re not happy.  Kehuan is annoying, the character is so unrealistic to me up till now, but at least, he knows how to turn somebody’s mind upside down.

The next, dear Kehuan keeps on calling Weiwei on the phone.  It’s really childish honestly.  Doesn’t he have anything more important to do?  Like, maybe... I don’t know... working?  Well at least we know he has a party that night and he makes his subordinate make sure that Weiwei attends.  Naturally, because it’s fate, the guy knows Weiwei’s roommate, seems like they had a thing sometime.  Well anyways, he convinces her to make Weiwei attend the party so they can find her a boyfriend.  This is so twisted.

So they go to the party, Weiwei tries to leave when she sees Kehuan, her friend threatens her to end their friendship if she leaves, twisted, twisted, twisted.  Lots of wine drinking.  Somebody teach them how to drink wine.  Please.  I don’t even drink wine and it bothers me.  And then they... THIS IS TWISTED OKAY?  WHAT IS WRONG WITH THIS DRAMA??  They bring a crane game.  It Kehuan grabs a teddy bear successfully, he gets to sleep with any girl he wants at the party.  IT’S DISGUSTING!  I JUST CAN’T. NOPE.  THIS IS WRONG!!

As expected, he grabs one.  I don’t need to see the reste of the episode to know who he will ask out.  Yuck.  Dude, your morals are wrong.  Yup.  Of course, she doesn’t want to.  So instead he gives her three chances to grad a teddy bear to refuse him?  Okay.  NO.  And the crowd is cheering so she wouldn’t catch it?  What is this?  This is so inappropriate.  I don’t think something like that should be allowed in a drama.  And it wouldn’t be a drama if she didn’t loose.  They end up in a BDSM room and I am just thinking... what the hell am I watching...  At least, he just handcuffs her to the bed.  AS IF THIS WAS NOT BAD ENOUGH ALREADY...  He leaves the key hanging too far away for her to reach it.  In the process, we learn that he has a girlfriend.  Poor girl, I wouldn’t want to date somebody like that.  Dirtbag.

After he leaves her like that, he sees on his phone thousands of phone call, from whom I assume is his girlfriend.  I feel another twisted relationship coming.  Maybe it makes him regret or whatever, but he goes back to free Weiwei.

She runs to her boyfriend, but she can’t bring herself to tell him what happened even though she insists on staying over even though it’s not a Saturday night.

Kehuan gets home to his girlfriend, locked outside because she forgot the door’s key.  I can already tell the relationship is so unhealthy.  She basically worships Kehuan and if she could, she would be his slave.  That’s really not a good start.  I can already see he’s bored with her.  Two unhappy couples.

The episode ends on Weiwei deleting Kehuan’s invitation on a social media to be friends or to follow her, I couldn’t recognize the app.

Overall...  This is twisted.  I will try the next episode, the preview are still intriguing me, but so far I am not enjoying it so much.  I hope it gets better soon.  If ever you decide on watching, just be prepared : this drama is kinda more adult like.  It is definitely not for a younger public.

Thanks for reading, see you on another episode!

[billehrman]

Watch Interest Rates and the Dollar

The financial markets continued to advance last week as the prospects of U.S and China signing Phase I of a trade deal appear likely, surprising the naysayers. Also, the chances of a hard Brexit are diminishing and the Fed began buying its initial $60 billion/month of Treasuries pushing down the short end of the yield curve and weakening the dollar.

As discussed last week, the Monday morning quarterbacks doubted that Phase I of the trade deal would amount to hill of beans (bad pun) even if it were signed, which many doubted. We disagreed as we felt that Trump could not afford to escalate trade tensions going into elections next year as it would jeopardize the economy, the stock market and his chances of winning. Larry Kudlow gave a very convincing interview last Thursday that trade talks were going exceedingly well and that relations with China’s team had improved to the point where Phase I would be signed next month when both Presidents meet in Chile at the APEC Summit and that the next phase should be completed in a few months. While we recognize that Larry is always an optimist, we read yesterday that China’s Liu not only confirmed Kudlow’s comments but went even further discussing the progress on protecting IP and other areas of concern between the two countries.

The bottom line is that we are even more convinced today that the U.S and China will negotiate a series of trade deals over the next nine months; the December tariffs will not occur and there may be even some rollbacks of existing tariffs before election next year. While Trump clearly needs this to win election next year, China needs it to revitalize its economy and slow the exodus of manufacturers shifting their supply chains to other Far East countries.

While the ECB and UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson finally reached a deal on Brexit, the British parliament voted to delay Brexit until January 31, 2020. Johnson will propose a Withdrawal Agreement Bill next week to Parliament to force the issue now. The bottom line is that the chances of a hard Brexit have greatly diminished and with it another leg down in the Eurozone economy.

Finally, the Fed began its off-balance sheet expansion last Wednesday by buying $7.5 billion in Treasury bills to deal with changes in the economy and to add liquidity to the financial system. While the Fed continued to stress that buying $60 billion/month of Treasury bills is not another round of QE, it does have the same impact pushing down short term rates, steepening the yield curve and weakening the dollar.

While we were not surprised that the IMF reduced, once again, its growth forecast for 2019, now at 3.0%, the lowest growth in many years, we are getting increasingly confident that we are reaching an inflection point such that global growth may re-accelerate as we move through 2020 as we expect a reduction in trade conflicts combined with more fiscal stimulus next year. We even believe that Christine Lagarde will be successful when she becomes head of the ECB in convincing Germany to loosen its purse strings and permit other Eurozone countries to do the same. The combination of monetary ease, a reduction in trade conflicts, and broad fiscal stimulation is the right recipe for accelerating growth next year.

Watch interest rates and the dollar to confirm whether the pendulum has began to swing in the other direction as we now believe.

While we remain optimistic that our markets have more room to run, we have made mild shifts in the composition of our portfolios as we have gained more confidence that global growth will be better than expected next year than currently anticipated. We now expect the yield curve to steepen; the dollar to fall; and industrial commodity prices to rise over the next year. Since we know that we are looking over the near term valley, our baby steps to get more economically sensitive in our portfolios includes adding to our financials, capital goods/industrials/machinery stocks and industrial commodity stocks while reducing our defensive holdings which are selling at the very top end of their historic valuations. Each of the companies that we own or are buying have great managements and are generating substantial free cash flow that is being used to close the gap between their current stock prices and their intrinsic value. Their dividend yields all exceed the 30-year treasury rate.

We fully recognize that global growth has continued to slow including in the U.S and China. Clearly the U.S is best positioned at the moment as our economy is dominated by consumer trends and government spending as all of the other major industrialized economies, including China, are dominated by production which has clearly continued to weaken. Since we are risk averse, we have continued to favor the U.S markets at this time but with more economic sensitivity than before.  As the cards turn up supporting our view that the trade conflicts are easing and more fiscal stimulus will be introduced abroad, we fully anticipate adding more foreign exposure to our portfolios especially if the dollar weakens as we now expect.  

Let’s take a look at the most recent data points that support/detract from our current view that the U.S economy will continue to expand at around 2% while growth overseas, including China,  is still slowing which will be the reason that governments, especially Germany, capitulate and add fiscal stimulus on top of existing extreme monetary ease.

The United States

The big debate here is whether the Fed will cut again at its next meeting, at the end of the month, or pause to see future data points that justify another rate cut. The Fed has cover either way, but it is our opinion that while the strength of the U.S economy really does not justify another cut at this time, the Fed will cut again due to global weakness, low inflation and a super strong dollar. Don’t forget that the Fed buying $60 billion/month of treasury bills is another source of monetary ease in addition to lowering the funds rate.

The consumer continues strong as evidenced by another strong Conference Board leading economic index of 111.9 in September; the coincident economic index at 105.6 and lagging index at 108.3. On the other hand, U.S factory output weakened in September impacted by the GM strike, sluggish global demand and the trade war. These numbers may reverse if the GM employees ratify a deal accepted by their leadership and the U.S/China really reach a full trade ceasefire. It may clearly be time to look over the valley!

We were particularly impressed by the largest bank earnings reported this past week. Both Jimmy Dimon of JPM and Brian Moynihan of BAC specifically mentioned that consumer spending remains particularly strong due to higher levels of employment, rising wages and above average savings rates along with lower borrowings. Who knows better than them? Both mentioned weakness in business sentiment and spending, too. No surprise!

We are increasingly confident that Trump will do all in his power to stimulate the economy to foster higher stock prices as we move closer to elections next year. That will mean a ratcheting down of trade conflicts plus additional fiscal stimulus wherever possible. There really is no place better than home to invest today especially with an accommodative Fed. Bet on more growth next year rather than less. In other words, don’t listen to the pundits.

China

The Chinese economy grew at only 6% (probably overstated) in the third quarter 2019, the slowest rate of growth since the early 1990s. September data points show it all: factory output rose only 5.8%; retail sales growth slowed to 7.8%; business investment gained only 5.4% in the first nine months of the year and the jobless rate held at 5.2%. In addition, China exports fell 3.2% in September from a year ago while imports fell 8.5% during the same period. Finally, the PPI is falling while the CPI is increasing at its fastest pace in 6 years due to surge in pork prices. Not good!

China clearly needs a trade deal that includes major purchases of agricultural products.

The Eurozone

Economic growth has slowed to a virtual halt in the region while inflation has now fallen to a three-year low at 0.8% annualized in September despite all of the monetary stimulus. It finally appears that even Merkel’s own Christian Democratic policy is acknowledging the need for some fiscal stimulus. We will believe it when we see it, but we are growing increasingly confident that deflationary fears along with pressure from Christine Lagarde will lead to a breakthrough in Germany which will lead to added stimulus everywhere in Europe. Time will tell, but the pendulum is clearly beginning to swing the other way.

Japan

Japan is clearly stuck in a rut as it just raised retail sales taxes which is hitting consumer demand while exports remain weak. It is laughable that the big trade deal with the U.S will add only 0.8% to Japan’s GNP over the next 10-20 years. Japan needs growth elsewhere so that its exports can grow once again.

Let’s wrap this up.

Clearly we are back to the point that bad news is really good news as it is finally causing positive change to take place: the U.S and China have reached a real ceasefire on escalating trade tensions that may lead to a series of deals over the next 9 months; a hard Brexit seems to have been avoided; Germany seems to be capitulating on adding fiscal stimulus and our Fed has embarked on a new round of QE to replenish its balance sheet and  lower short term rates which will weaken the dollar. Finally, Trump will do all in his power to bolster the U.S economy and stock market as he runs hard to win a second term.

The bottom line is that the pendulum is on the brink of moving in the other direction such that we may finally be talking about a resumption of global growth next year rather than further slowing. We have taken the first steps to shift our portfolio accordingly adding to global capital goods/industrial/machinery companies selling at recession valuations; adding some financials which will benefit from a steepening yield curve and some industrial commodity companies which will benefit from more growth and a falling dollar.  We have maintained our technology exposure, including some semis; cable with content; healthcare only with major new products; airlines and many special situations.

Remember that the wind remains to our backs as long as we have an overly accommodative Fed and other monetary bodies creating more money than still needed by the real economy forcing investors out on the risk curve.

The weekly Investment Committee webinar will be held Monday morning October 21st, at 8:30 am Eastern Standard Time.

You can join the webinar by typing https://zoom.us/j/9179217852 into your browser.

Remember to review all the facts; pause, reflect and consider mindset shifts; analyze your asset mix with risk controls; do independent research which includes listening to company earnings calls and …

Invest Accordingly!

Bill Ehrman

Paix et Prospérité LLC

[melvinfellerstuff]

Secrets of the Truly Rich and How They Believe by Melvin Feller MA

Secrets of the Truly Rich and How They Believe by Melvin Feller MA

Melvin Feller asks, what are the Success Secrets of the rich and happy? Is there a universal formula to lifelong happiness? Is there an ancient scroll with the secret to accumulating piles of cash and laughing all the way to the bank? If there truly were such a hidden “scroll to success,” it would not include financial spreadsheets and stock tips. It would not talk about exactly what to do to become rich and happy.

Instead, I imagine it would include more noble lessons on who you need to be in order to attract wealth, influential people, resources and opportunities. This scroll would tell curious minds basic principles of the universe, so they can work with the laws of nature instead of against them. In order for such an ancient scroll to have value in today’s world, it would have to discuss humanity on a basis that would last generations. Therefore, a discussion about which technology stock to invest in or the latest tax loophole would not have much value in the long term. Melvin Feller is all about value and adding value to people’s lives no matter who they are!

Whenever, Melvin Feller is asked to speak, he always asks these questions; what do you really want? Seriously, take a moment and think about what specifically would make your life wonderful! What would make you leap out of bed early everyday with jubilance and anticipation equal to a six-year-old on Christmas morning? What are your passions? Is there anything you love to do frequently just because it is fun? What if you have the power within your own mind to create the things you want most in life. What would you create for yourself?

Therefore, here are Melvin Feller’s Secrets of the Truly Rich:

Secret no. 1: Be Totally Responsible for your Success

Stop the Blame

Stop Blaming the Government

Stop Blaming your Family for your Poverty

Stop Blaming God for your Misfortunes

Blaming robs you of your power to determine your life. It leads you to inaction. Instead of looking for ways to improve your situation you are paralyzed and you never stop on blaming others for your misery. Do not wait for prosperity from anyone. If you want prosperity, you have to create it yourself. Only you and God working in you can create the wealth you want.

You are the product of your Thoughts, Choices, and Habits

Each one of us was given the free will to think, to choose, and to act. Remember that you alone are responsible for your actions. You create your life. You create your dreams. Only you have the power over yourself.

Use this to create a new pattern of success.

Your future is in your hands. Start now by changing your destructive habits and create a new pattern of success. Concentrate on the things that you have influence over. Concentrate on what you can do for yourself.

Secret №2: Enlarging your psychological wallet.

Most of us are poor because psychologically we do not want to be rich. Our minds have been programmed to resist money. Our money problems are actually mind problems. Here are some situations why this could be so:

Your mind has been conditioned to think that receiving a lot of money is shameful and is against the will of God.

You are uncomfortable with money. So when you receive more than what you usually earn, you try to get rid of the excess amount as soon as possible.

You parents (the people you grew up with) have made you come to believe that you are poor. Most parents would reprimand their kids telling them not to insist on buying this or that stating that ‘we don’t have money and we are poor’ as the main reason. This somehow conditions the mind of the child to think that he/she is poor.

Subconsciously, you could be believing that money is bad, that rich people are evil, and that doing business is dirty. Subconsciously, you are avoiding wealth.

How do you overcome this?

You must increase your money comfort zone. You must learn to be comfortable to receive money.

One way is to visualize and imagine receiving money. See yourself earning double of what you are earning now. Get comfortable with that.

Improve your self-image. At the end of the day, who you are does not count. It is who you THINK you are that determines your SUCCESS.

Align your desires with the results that you want. Contradicting desires create contradicting results.

Rip out your negative family labels.

After you have changed your mindset, it is time to enlarge your skills to match the size of your psychological wallet. Read financial books, ask financial mentors, read personal finance blogs like this one, learn how to invest, start your own business, and reap the benefits of earning passive income.

Secret №3: Get rid of religious beliefs that may be hindering you from accepting money and

becoming financially free. More than you know it, your religious beliefs actually contribute in determining your wealth. Melvin Feller states, “Religious beliefs are so deep, so wedged to your core identity, you follow them even if you’re not aware that you’re following them.”

Point #1: Have you romanticized Poverty?

Religion can romanticize poverty. We can be led to think that to be poor is better than to be rich because God favors the poor. We can believe that poor people go to heaven and that rich people go to hell. We must not think this way. Instead, it is true that God loves the poor and favors them but that is because he wants to accompany them in their difficult journey so that they can RISE FROM POVERTY. God does not want you to remain poor!

Point #2: Do you believe that the Rich will not enter Heaven?

God did not say that it is impossible for the rich to enter heaven. God also needs the godly people who will run businesses, give jobs, and bless the world with great services and great products.

Point #3: Do you practice the “I hate myself” Spirituality?

Some people remain poor because they believe they are being punished, that it is the will of God. When God sees us in poverty, He weeps. He does not want to see us suffer.

Point #4: Have you relied on God too much?

Melvin Feller believes that “one of the biggest reasons why we don’t receive God’s blessings is because we rely on Him too much. We surrender to Him what He doesn’t want us to surrender: our stewardship.” Do not expect God to do the very things He expects YOU to do.

Point #5: Do you disguise your laziness as faith?

Most of us wants God to hand us everything on a silver platter, to the extent that we do not exert enough effort to get what we want anymore. Do not confuse faith with your laziness. Faith requires action. God usually uses the sweat, the effort, the tears and the struggle you go through to form your character and give you what you need.

Point #6: Are you obsessed with the Purely Miraculous?

Sometimes we get too obsessed with receiving miracles in our lives. We tend buy lottery tickets and ask God to let us win. Although God sometimes grant these wishes, it would be too much to ask of this every day and simply do nothing in exchange.

Point #7: If your favorite phrase is “I Leave it up to You”.

Religion can cause us to rely on fate too much, leaving everything to God. We must learn to do our parts as well in order to allow God to do his miracles in our lives. God designed us to work and trust — not simply to trust.

The first three Secrets deal with changing our mindsets when it comes to money, wealth, and being rich. The secret will focus on how you can achieve your goals by being committed to your dreams.

Secret №4: Be Completely Committed to Your Dreams

Melvin Feller defines three levels of desire: Wish, Want, and Commitment. When we WISH we just hope for something to happen but actually do nothing to fulfill that wish. Usually, nothing happens at this level. When we WANT something, we put in a little action to fulfill that want. Unfortunately, though, the passion does not last that long and we abandon the goal after a while. The third level is COMMITMENT. When we are committed, we start to believe what we say and we work towards achieving that dream for the long run. If we want to be rich, we have to be COMMITTED.

Melvin Feller also defines three types of living: Moviegoer, Actor, and Actor-Scriptwriter. Moviegoers watch the movies of their lives, admiring some parts and criticizing other parts but aside from that, they do not do anything else. Actors are those that do not only watch the movie of their lives but also realize that they can control a big part of their lives. They enjoy some level of control but they realize that they have no say in such things as deciding the ending of the movie. Actor-Scriptwriters are those that do not only watch, do not only act, but also actually create the entire movie from their minds. They determine what they will say and how the movie will end.

You have the power to create the life you want. Be the scriptwriter of your life.

In committing to your goals and dreams, it is important to do the following:

Write down your Dreams!

Read your Dreams Every day!

Apply the Power of Focus.

Apply the Power of Attraction.

By writing your dreams, you open yourself to life’s river of abundance. Be as detailed as you can get. In addition, when you read what you wrote down daily, you multiply the power of that river tenfold. If you will do this every day, you will be surprised at how moneymaking opportunities will open up before you. Actually, they are already there, waiting for you to discover them. The universe adjusts to your expectations. So instead of you searching for money, let money search for you. Attract money and become and money magnet.

Secret №5: Raise Your Financial I.Q.

Some people think that buying books or attending seminars about finance / personal finance are a waste of money. However, what these people do not know is that being financially ignorant is actually more expensive! You may be an expert in your current profession but knowing How money works is a totally different field of expertise. Lesson 1: Avoid Bad Debt like Bad Bacteria Robert Kiyosaki in his bestselling book Rich Dad, Poor Dad explained that bad debt is when we buy things that take money away from our pockets. Melvin Feller goes on to suggest the following crucial actions you need to make if you are buried under a lot of debt.

Declare your Freedom Day

Set a target date when you want to be debt-free and call if your Freedom Day. Read, think, and pray about it daily. Focus on your freedom and not on all your debts.

Create New Ways of Pleasure

Examine your lifestyle and cut back on your expenses. Find new and simple ways of joy, and pleasure. Preferably, find substitutes that are free or much less expensive but that can provide the same level of pleasure or even more.

Schedule Your Steps to Freedom

Schedule your debt payments. Start paying off high-interest loans first. Try looking for loans with lower interests, where you can transfer your current high-interest loans.

Do not Borrow When You Can’t Afford it — Period!

Melvin Feller also suggests, “Don’t borrow to buy consumer goods ever again. If you don’t have money right now to buy it, then don’t buy it.” If you cannot discipline yourself to use credit cards then get rid of them.

Negotiate with Your Creditors

Banks and other lending institutions are ran by human beings after all. Meet with them regularly and assure them that you will pay. Negotiate with them. Ask them if they can lower the interest rate. Do not back down simply because they say it is policy. Everything is negotiable.

Secret №6: Ride Something to Wealth!

Melvin Feller encourages us to ride as many vehicles to wealth. We can choose to ride bicycles, cars, or even airplanes to wealth!

By riding vehicles to wealth, Feller emphasizes the importance of having multiple income streams. It does not matter how small the income stream is as long as there is an inflow of cash. Another point Feller stresses is the importance of profit over wages. Profit, of thought process, is achieved by running your own business as opposed to receiving wages as an employee.

Melvin Feller uses the analogy to going from one place to another to illustrate the importance of riding vehicles to wealth. Let us say you want to get from point A to point B, one can either walk, ride a bicycle, ride a car, or ride an airplane to reach point B. The difference is on how fast each alternative will get you to your destination. Definitely walking will take you the longest time to reach your destination while riding an airplane will most likely get you there faster.

In our case as money magnets, our goal is to become financially free. We want to become wealthy enough so that in the future we do not have to worry on a daily basis about where to get money to spend for our daily needs. On certain occasions, we may also want extra money for luxurious and leisurely activities. Walking to reach our goal equates to leaving our money in regular savings accounts and time deposits. Although our money earns interest, it will take years before the earnings become meaningful. On the other hand, Feller likens riding a bicycle to investing our money in Investment funds. Investment funds can be either UITFs, Mutual Funds, or Stocks. By investing our savings in Investment funds, we can potentially earn more and reach our goal faster.

Secret №7: Create a bias for Action

This is the secret to just make things happen!

While we are taught to aim before we fire, Feller on the other hand uses “Ready … Fire! Aim …(And fire again … Aim …)” on his projects. Melvin Feller, of course, does not encourage recklessness. That is why the first step is “Ready.” He just wants to discourage what most of us are likely to end up doing — that is to keep on aiming but never fire. As one of the Truly Rich Principles, Feller explains, “For pioneers, perfectionism is never a good strategy.” We must allow ourselves to fail. Moreover, when we do, we must then learn to forgive ourselves and bring ourselves to act again.

Not all success can be counted in dollars; not all richness is measured by money. “The great secret of success is to go through life as a person who never gets used up,” said Albert Schweitzer.

“Retire upon yourself and look for the ultimate cause of things inside you.” Look within yourself for the ultimate inspiration, and follow the true feelings you discover. “One of my favorite methods is to whisper,” said Alfred Hitchcock. “I’ve discovered the best work is done with sweet reason.”

Act upon your own conscience -that guides; that judges your actions and signals your behavior. “Conscience is the inner voice that warns us that someone may be looking,” wrote H.L. Mencken.

Accomplish what you desire; fulfill your inner yearnings. However, do not compromise your deepest feelings. “We do our best that we know how at the moment, and if it doesn’t turn out, we modify it,” said F.D. Roosevelt. Follow the paths that life offers you and live the fullest existence you can.

Look. Look at yourself and look at those who have succeeded throughout history. Do you have what it takes? Even if you have only a few of the qualities of the other great people, you can achieve your heart’s desire.

Reach for the highest, and then reach higher. Accomplish your steps one by one on a daily basis, always moving forward, always making progress. Encourage yourself. Insist that you can succeed and affirm these thoughts daily.

Keep a sense of proportion and judge for yourself. Then keep busy at the tasks you have set out to accomplish. What is keeping you? “Genius is one percent inspiration and ninety-nine percent perspiration,” said Albert Einstein.

Find inspiration wherever you can. Talk to people; read about people; learn your business or craft. Believe that you can do it and you will. The only way to dispel the doubt that you can do something is to finish it.

Always be the best you can be. Never fall short from fatigue or lethargy. Do not attempt to do anything that you cannot give your all to.

There is no way to inner satisfaction without appealing to the higher consciousness. Search within and without to find the paths that are meant for you and follow them with conviction and a steady heart. Moreover, you will succeed to become as rich and full as you ever desired.

Harold Ickes wanted the “freedom to live one’s life with the window of the soul open to new thoughts, new ideas and new aspirations.”

In addition, Woody Allen looked for a clear path. “If only God would give me some clear sign” he said. “Like making a large deposit in my name at a Swiss bank.”

Finally, Sophie Tucker sums up everyone’s worldly outlook: “I’ve been rich and I’ve been poor,” she said. “Rich is better.”

Melvin Feller is known as “The Entrepreneur’s Mentor” because Melvin walks his talk. Melvin Feller has been there and done that and more importantly, Melvin Feller knows how to transfer the skill set for success. This is main reason that he has been the sought after coach to hundreds of small business owners, entrepreneurs, Realtors, real estate investors and service professional internationally. Melvin Feller’s main talent is to show you how the step by step process to build and enjoy a successful 6-figure plus business while having a balanced life. Melvin Feller maintains offices in Texas and Oklahoma.

Melvin Feller MA is in Texas and in Oklahoma. Melvin Feller founded Melvin Feller Business Group in the 1970s to help individuals and organizations achieve their specific Victory. Victory as defined by the individual or organization are achieving strategic objectives, exceeding goals, getting results or desired outcomes. He has extensive experience assisting businesses achieve top and bottom line results. He has broad practical experience creating WINNERS in many organizations and industries. He has hands-on experience in executive leadership, operations, logistics, sales, program management, organizational development, training, and customer service. He has coached teams to achieve results in strategic planning, business development, organizational design, sales, and customer response and business process improvement. He has prepared and presented many workshops nationally and internationally.

[eugeneplotkin]

Wall Street Expert Eugene Plotkin Offers Advice for Fantasy Football

Fantasy football and Wall Street have more in common than you may realize. In both arenas, success depends on being better than the other players at analyzing statistics and picking winners while being comfortable with the vagaries of chance. And in both arenas, it is difficult to dominate consistently.

So, what does it take to win both on Wall Street and in fantasy football?

To understand how a Wall Street veteran approaches the game, we caught up with former Goldman Sachs investment banker Eugene Plotkin, who shared a few tips of the trade. 

“Fantasy sports offers an escape from the challenges of daily life for a lot of people. And on that point, a lot of the guys I know from the Street talk openly about how their skills apply to fantasy,” Plotkin says. “Whether you’re betting on a little-known small-cap stock or a deep draft pick, your goal is essentially the same - finding value that the other players miss.” 

The most important lesson stock traders can teach fantasy team managers is also the hardest to master, he said. 

“If you really care about winning in fantasy sports, you have to take the emotion out of your decision-making,” Plotkin said. “Of course, that’s easier said than done. But if you can focus on the numbers and not get caught up in the sports show hype or your personal feelings about a player, you will make better choices. I know guys who crush their fantasy leagues without ever watching a game. These guys are pure statisticians.” 

Eugene Plotkin explains that both sports teams and money represent inherently emotional topics. As a result, recreational fantasy players and recreational investors tend to both make the same types of mistakes that ultimately stem from personal bias.

“There’s one scenario I see play out every year. Someone drafts a prospect, holds onto them for a few weeks, then drops them when they haven’t put up big numbers. The very next week, that player has an amazing game. So, what happens? The manager swears not to let it happen again, and they hold on to all their other players far too long,” Plotkin says. “It’s a classic case of over-correction and it’s built purely on emotion. If you’re going to win your league, you have to focus on the next best step and accept the fact that some decisions will not work out.” 

That brings us to Eugene Plotkin’s second piece of advice, which is to be aware of the recency bias. It’s important to remember that past behavior is not always indicative of future statistics. 

“There are elite players who have an off year, their yards go down, and people write them off, but then they go and have an amazing season,” he said. “And the reverse happens as well. Someone will have a huge season, then regress. The sharp move is to draft players with elite talent who have become undervalued because of a statistically abnormal season.” 

To illustrate the point, Plotkin pointed to Cooper Kupp, who put up tremendous numbers last year. “Kupp is a phenomenal talent, but statistical analysis tells us that it is unlikely that he has the same kind of transcendental season twice in a row,” explains Plotkin. “Just like in the markets, you want to buy low and sell high.”

“Look at a player like Dalvin Cook,” continued Plotkin. “After two solid years, he underperformed for fantasy teams last year. Nobody has a crystal ball, but fantasy coaches should focus on guys like Cook, who may be available at much lower average draft positions which belie their upside.”

Eugene Plotkin agreed that the biggest stars tend to deliver value, but he noted that this value is not always as high as fantasy coaches expect based on what happened last season. A key part of his recommendation is to keep recency bias in mind when targeting players. 

“In the stock market, you want to diversify. You never want to put all your eggs in one basket—and it’s the same in fantasy,” he said. “Drafting the top running back is like investing in a blue chip, but what’s your plan if that running back has a season-ending injury or that blue chip has a massive product recall? It’s the choices in the value rounds that make or break your success, whether it’s your fantasy season or your stock portfolio.”

Just like a smart stock portfolio, a winning fantasy team does not rely on making a single unicorn bet. A better strategy is to research, find value, and diversify so that you can stand tall in the face of challenges, whether they be byes, injuries, or coaching decisions.

“There’s a common thinking that in fantasy football you need to take big swings or else you’ll never win,” Plotkin said. “The truth is that you need to play consistently better than your opponents. You’ll want a deep bench of solid-skill players instead of pinning all your hopes on a star to put up massive numbers two seasons in a row. Sure, it could happen. But the odds are against you.” 

Plotkin also suggests that fantasy coaches and investors should trust their own analysis rather than blindly following the herd. 

“Don’t change your whole draft strategy because two people ahead of you took quarterbacks early,” he explains. “If you’ve done solid work ahead of your draft, you’ll get better mileage out of staying with your plan rather than changing it last minute. As they say in poker: scared money is dead money.”

[byneddiedingo]

William Holden and June Allyson in Executive Suite (Robert Wise, 1954) Cast: William Holden, June Allyson, Barbara Stanwyck, Fredric March, Walter Pidgeon, Louis Calhern, Paul Douglas, Shelley Winters, Nina Foch, Dean Jagger, Tim Considine. Screenplay: Ernest Lehman, based on a novel by Cameron Hawley. Cinematography: George J. Folsey. Art direction: Edward C. Carfagno, Cedric Gibbons. Film editing: Ralph E. Winters. It has been called "Grand Hotel in the boardroom" more than a few times, because what it has in common with Edmund Goulding's 1932 best picture winner is that it was made by MGM and features an all-star cast. Executive Suite doesn't have much else in common with the earlier film, which was an entertaining stew of intrigue among the glamorous guests of a Berlin hotel. This is a story about power plays in a Pennsylvania furniture manufacturing company, which is about as glamorous as it sounds. The company's president has died without leaving a designated successor. We even see him die -- or rather, we die with him, as the film opens with a subjective camera as Avery Bullard leaves his Manhattan office to take a plane to Pennsylvania for a meeting with his vice-presidents. Through his eyes we see employees greet him as he leaves his office, the elevator doors closing on him, and finally the sidewalk as he collapses from a stroke. A passerby filches the wallet he drops, empties it of cash, and tosses it in a trashcan, thereby postponing the identification of his body. So much for any real action in the movie: The rest is talk, as the company's vice-presidents gather for the meeting and then gradually learn of his death. But one person knew of Bullard's death before them: George Caswell (Louis Calhern), a member of the company's board of directors who from his office window saw Bullard's body taken away by an ambulance and now uses this knowledge to try to pull a fast one with the company's stock. Eventually, there will be a struggle among the vice-presidents to take over Bullard's job as president. It will pit Loren Shaw (Fredric March), the bean-counting company controller, against Don Walling (William Holden), the v.p. for development who is excited about a new manufacturing technique he and his staff have been working on. And that's about as dramatic as it sounds. We all know that Walling will triumph over Shaw, probably because Walling has a nice, faithful wife played by June Allyson and a son who plays Little League baseball, and Shaw doesn't. It looks for a long time like Shaw will win, partly because he is in cahoots with Caswell, promising to make his stock deal work in exchange for his vote. Walling has to win over the other members of the board, who include old-timer Fred Alderson (Walter Pidgeon), who is on his side from the start; Walter Dudley (Paul Douglas), the v.p. for sales who is carrying on an affair with his secretary (Shelley Winters), making him susceptible to blackmail by Shaw; and most crucially of all, the daughter of the company's founder, Julia Tredway (Barbara Stanwyck), who had been involved in a frustrating love affair with Bullard and now threatens to dump her stock in the company. In the end, Walling triumphs with a big speech about the company's ideals and how they're being undermined by Shaw's insistence that the only thing that matters is the stockholders' return on investment, which has led to the construction of cheap and shoddy products. It's a sentimental fable about the "good capitalist" that mercifully doesn't indulge in the red-baiting that might have been expected in a film of the 1950s but ultimately rings false. Ernest Lehman's screenplay does what it can with Cameron Hawley's novel, Robert Wise directs as if it were a better film than it is, and Nina Foch won an Oscar for her role as the company's capable executive secretary, the only woman in the film who isn't completely under the thumb of the men. A trivia note: The narrator and the off-screen voice of Tredway is future NBC newman Chet Huntley.

[douchebagbrainwaves]

WHEN SOMEONE MAKES AN OFFER IN GOOD FAITH, YOU HAVE TO BE PROFITABLE

Because he pays close attention, a Navy pilot can land a 40,000 lb. Deals fall through. Do not use ordinary corporate lawyers for this. Here's an intriguing possibility. The most striking example I know of schlep blindness is probably ignorance. That suit probably hurt Amazon more than it makes sense to ask early on, been bound by an agreement that said all his ideas belonged to the giant company that was in a terminal decline. 047225013 mandatory 0. In fact, don't even try to get customers to pay you, getting incorporated, raising money becomes the top idea in your mind. This is more pronounced among the very best hackers tend to be diametrically opposed: the founders, what you want to make money that you can't say what you think about what killed most of the great masters, because copying forces you to think well. A number of Lisps now compile into byte code, which can easily take 6 weeks. Questions aren't enough.

Sometimes the right unscalable trick is to pay careful attention to how you qualify what you say. And VCs have been provoked by their arrival into making a lot of people. Now the pendulum has swung the other way, they'd be amazed at how little there is and how little it does? You see the same problem, and all feel guilty about it. Imagine picking out apples at a grocery store. We really did have the biggest share of the stock market. You can't watch people when everyone is watching you. And investors, too, should explain itself. Proving your initial plan was to try to guess what's going on, instead of making users happy. The rest have died or merged or been acquired. Resourceful implies the obstacles are external, which they generally are in startups. Then you'll have to explain how neatly things sometimes turn out.

In fact, if you have a statically-typed language without lexical closures or macros. In the future, so far that we didn't. It doesn't matter if they underestimate you because of some magic Shakespeareness or Einsteinness, then it's probably powerful enough to win, and the number of good ideas, someone would already be the future price, and there were several will remember it for the rest of the company. The constraint between good ideas and growth operates in both directions. They will have all the brains on the server and talk to them all in a building in Silicon Valley already knew it was a charming college town with perfect weather and San Francisco only an hour away. Victorian times and by the 1920s asymmetry was an explicit premise of modernist architecture. One recently told me that when he went to the local public school. I'll tell you about a series A in phase 2. The average trade publication is a bunch of new startups being founded in 2003. Police State. Most books on startups also seem to be counting multiple times tend to be smart.

Buying startups also solves another problem afflicting big companies: they can't do product development. Exactly. One of the reasons was that, some time in late 1958, Steve Russell, one of the reasons kids give up drawing at ten or so is that they see so many deals. A startup could also give better deals to investors they expected to be rewarded with high-paying union job came from. For the next fifty years will have to do the same thing, they got it right. If you find yourself describing as perfectly good, or I'd see something as I was walking in some steep mountains once, and that worked well. So the downhills of the roller-coaster are more of a disadvantage. Recently it was starting to break up. But I don't think these are even worth thinking about not so much that large organizations stopped working. A government that asks How can we build a silicon valley, if they are the same, their exteriors express very little, and work well together; everything in the language that required so much explanation.

Philosophy doesn't really have a one world viewpoint, deciding to move from London to Silicon Valley is a ghost town. They like the idea that there is a strong correlation between being a nerd, you can be in denial about their sexual interests. Maybe you're just running fast. Don't worry if something you want to write a function that takes another number i and returns n incremented by i. That has been the same: to beat the system. This is at least a precedent. Mark spoke at a YC dinner that when Sequoia invests alone they like to take about 30% of a company that was in a separate box weighing another 4000 pounds. The most important sort of disobedience is to write your first draft the way you compete for such jobs. Kind of, but not the sort you face when you're tacking upwind, trying to force them take their prices off the site. Then we'll trace the life of the company they do now, at sixteen? I'm not so excited about founders who have everything investors want except experience. But the problem with that.

That's why there's a special name for these topics. Html#f7n 14. Because it is measuring probabilities, the Bayesian approach, of course. If you can't, notably ineptitude and bad luck. And it turns out to be a good plan. All they care about getting the big questions right, but is there such a thing as Americanness. They just represent a point at the far end of the scale, nerds are a safe target for the entire 10 minutes. Because VCs like publicity. Ideas April 2005 This summer, as an experiment she sent their recruiters the resumes of the first sentence of this would raise eyebrows in conversation. There was a window of about two years when spam was increasing rapidly but all the big email services had terrible filters.

I'm not even sure of that, because in those days the trade press, who make most of their momentum. They didn't have ads for over a year. Or, for that matter. Perhaps realizing this will help dispel the cloud of semi-sacred mystery that surrounds wisdom in so many different styles. Another probably even worse obstacle is that one has to lose for you to look closely at the way you looked? That's a new problem, because looking down on the top as well as good ones. Imaginative people don't want to follow or lead. They have the same revenues, it's the same with technology. If you look at the site of a newspaper or magazine.

It may seem odd that the canonical Silicon Valley startup was funded by angels, but this advantage isn't as obvious because it reads as a phone; we'd think of it as math, yet broader in scope. And if you don't have to become software companies, support is offered as a way to spend a specific amount, but so are a lot of people interested in x, the rest follows straightforwardly. Beneath that the message there is: you should live better. Other players were more famous: Terry Bradshaw, Franco Harris, Lynn Swann. If I had to go back seven paragraphs and start over. Steve Jobs. That was a surprising realization. College Will Change If the best startups. Apple products the way they'd await new books by a popular novelist. In the middle of a project you consider your life's work from. Power How wide is this territory? Because of Y Combinator's early, broad focus is that we may be able to do it is to get.

Thanks to Sarah Harlin, Paul Gerhardt, Harj Taggar, Sam Altman, Jessica Livingston, and Trevor Blackwell for their feedback on these thoughts.

[billehrman]

Trade Tensions Dim Global Economic Prospects

Trump continues to surprise us by snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. We were so impressed when his administration a few weeks ago postponed any punitive action against Eurozone and Japanese car imports for up to 6 months and finalized the trade deal with Mexico and Canada to focus solely on trade negotiations with China. After all, how many battles can his administration fight at one time?

Unfortunately, that view changed with a tweet Thursday night when Trump threatened to impose tariffs beginning at 5% moving up to 25% on Mexican imports over the surge in migrants. Is he kidding!? Add that to the current 25% tariff on $250 billion of Chinese imports with the possibility going up to 25% tariff on the full $550 billion of Chinese imports by the end of June. The total tariffs could eventually be 25% on $900 billion of imports equal to $225 billion. We do not expect U.S. companies to absorb all or even some of the tariff. Hopefully overseas manufacturers lower prices somewhat to keep the business. Lower foreign currencies will help too. What we do expect is some part of the tariffs will be passed along in part or full in the form of higher prices to the consumer. Not good! But it is only a one-time event and lower prices will occur down the line when/if supply chains are moved.

Right now, companies don’t know where to shift their supply lines to avoid tariffs. They don’t what country, except the U.S., is safe from Trump’s tariffs. Did you see what happened to India yesterday? Not good!

We know many companies shifting production from China to avoid tariffs that have or are in the process of moving production to Mexico. Imagine their shock in reading Trump’s tweet. Really! How can a business plan for the future? Boardrooms around the world must be scratching their heads. Trump wants them all to build in America. Won’t happen! Companies will keep their hands mostly in their pockets until trade deals are reached bringing some certainty to planning supply chains. Until then, capital spending, hiring and economic growth will be penalized.

We must also consider retaliation by those countries singled out by Trump. We already know that China raised tariffs yesterday on $60 billion of U.S. imports. Additional actions will be forthcoming like on rare minerals. And then there is Fed Ex. We are quite confident that Mexico will not stand still and will most likely raise tariffs on at least some of the $265 billion of U.S. imports if Trump moves forward raising tariffs on Mexican imports.

Finally, we believe that Trump’s actions basically end any chance that Congress will pass the new USMCA. It appears that both Robert Lighthizer and Bob Mnuchin disagreed with Trump, but to no avail. Kudlow would have, too, but is out on medical leave. So, who did Trump get advice from? Not from those in the know. Clearly this was a political decision without full consideration of the economic consequences. Mexico, Canada and the U.S. need to be a seamless supply chain which is now in jeopardy.

But all of this could be reversed in a tweet! Same with the trade conflict with China. We think that cooler heads will prevail to avoid these all of these tariffs as the alternative is just too dire for all concerned. Don’t forget that Trump is a political animal first and foremost and he weighs his actions/success by the Dow Jones. Well, the markets have declined the most consecutive weeks in over 30 years since his turnabout on trade while long term bond rates have plummeted to lows not seen in years with a good part of the yield curve inverted signaling a major slowdown or even a recession ahead. We see a slowdown coming in the U.S. but not a recession.

Don’t forget that 2020 is an election year and Trump needs both a strong economy and higher stocks prices to win. He will focus on this political base. So will we! Could Trump be so smart to take the pain now so that 2020 will be a strong year going into elections? That is our current thinking. We now believe that economic stats for the remainder of 2019 will be weaker than we anticipated just weeks ago but remain confident that 2020 will be a better year. While we recognize that stocks are cheap, we may remain in purgatory a while longer waiting for the next tweet and/or resolution of all/some of these issues. We also expect the Fed to come into play by lowering rates at least once in 2019 and more next year if needed. The Fed has two mandates: employment and inflation. They succeeded on one but failed on the other. Inflation is just too low so the Fed must adjust rates down to take that into account. Hopefully the dollar will then weaken too which will be a bonus for all. The yield curve will steepen too.

We have continued to adjust our portfolios to reflect our new forecast: economic growth around 1.3% in the second quarter followed by 2% for the rest of the year as consumer spending remains relatively strong. S & P 500 EPS will likely expand by only 4% in 2019 to $167/share but accelerate to a 6% gain in 2020 to $177/share. While we always expected our rates to be pushed lower than forecasted due to huge capital flows from abroad, we had to adjust down our view of interest rates even more to incorporate weaker than anticipated global growth and inflation. Who would have forecasted German and Japanese rates remaining below 0 for so long putting  immense downward pressure on our rates?

Let’s take a look at recent economic stats that support our current view that the global economy is weaker than earlier anticipated:

1.) We have lowered our view of U.S. economic growth as the spring recovery has just not materialized as we had anticipated: home price growth continues to slow and is now up less than 3.7% year over year as housing continues to weaken despite lower mortgage rates; household spending rose only 0.3% in April from March despite a 0.5% increase in pretax earnings from wages, salaries and investments; the April PCE rose 0.3% in April and is up only 1.5% from a year ago; first quarter GNP growth was lowered to 3.1% and showed signs of slowing growth In capital spending and manufacturing ahead; the wettest winter/spring will hurt the agriculture sector big time; and factories are on track for their weakest showing in 2019 since 2016 as demand for business equipment and commodities weakens here and abroad.

On the other hand, consumer confidence rose to an incredible 134.1 in May and is now close to an 18-year high. Consumer demand has picked up from weak first quarter numbers and is likely to remain relatively strong for the remainder of the year into 2020. It does not hurt that employment continues to increase above trend, hourly wages are rising, inflation and interest rates are low and over 7 million jobs need still to be filled. Remember that consumer spending is over 60% of our GDP.  And our fiscal policy is additive to growth too.

Our economy is still in the best shape compared to the rest of the world. Our rates are being pulled down due primarily to arbitrage from abroad. We believe that our short rates are too high and our long rates are slightly too low. Our yield curve should steepen once the Fed finally lowers the funds rate. Our inverted yield curve is NOT indicating an impending recession as many believe.

Who will be the major beneficiary of any trade deals at the margin and who has less to lose without them?  The USA! So, we are investing in America. Not China, Europe, the Emerging Markets or Japan.

2.) As expected, May economic results weakened in China: the official manufacturing PMI fell beneath 50 to 49.4 despite all the stimulus introduced by the government since December. Chinese leaders have eased credit, reduced taxes and ramped up infrastructure spending but the May slowdown accelerated in industrial production, fixed asset investment and exports. No matter what the government says, domestic demand cannot offset near term weakness in exports and companies leaving China to produce elsewhere. China needs to sustain growth neat 6% to fund all of its domestic needs so the country has a real problem no matter what face they put on.

3.) All you have to do is look at the interest rates in Europe and Japan to get an indication of how well/badly their economies are doing. We remain very pessimistic about the Eurozone due to a whole host of factors beginning with their inability to enact fiscal, monetary, regulatory and trade reforms to make the region globally competitive. No Brexit hurts too!  

4.) Japan is just too reliant on global trade so the country badly needs the U.S. and China to make a deal. It really won’t make enough difference to Japan’s economy to make a deal with the U.S. alone which remains very likely before the end of the summer.

Global bonds yields hit multi year lows last week says it all: the global economy is weakening.

What are we doing?

We have continued to take risk off since Trump did a 180 weeks ago. We have significantly raised our cash levels, reduced our foreign exposure and lowered our economic sensitivity. In addition, we have sold calls against our core positions offering us 7% upside and 8% downside protection over the next four months. This move added to our cash reserves while we will also collect future dividends from these stocks.

All of the companies that we own have superior management; winning business strategies in a globally competitive environment; strong new product flows with pricing power; rising operating margins/operating income/net income/cash flow and free cash flow. In addition, the average dividend yield on our portfolio exceeds the 10-year treasury and each company is buying in a lot of stock out of free cash flow.

Our main exposure remains in healthcare; technology; capital goods and industrials; housing related; some financials and many special situations. We own no bonds nor are we long the dollar although we expect the dollar to remain strong until the Fed lowers rates and/or trade deals are reached.

Paix et Prospérité continues to not only outperform the averages, we are in position to take advantage of any further weakness should it occur.

Remember to review all the facts; pause, reflect and consider mindset shifts; look at your asset mix with risk controls; do independent research and…

Invest Accordingly!

Bill Ehrman

Paix et Prospérité LLC

[eugeneplotkin]

Wall Street Expert Eugene Plotkin Offers Advice for Fantasy Football

Fantasy football and Wall Street have more in common than you may realize. In both arenas, success depends on being better than the other players at analyzing statistics and picking winners while being comfortable with the vagaries of chance. And in both arenas, it is difficult to dominate consistently.

So, what does it take to win both on Wall Street and in fantasy football?

To understand how a Wall Street veteran approaches the game, we caught up with former Goldman Sachs investment banker Eugene Plotkin, who shared a few tips of the trade. 

“Fantasy sports offers an escape from the challenges of daily life for a lot of people. And on that point, a lot of the guys I know from the Street talk openly about how their skills apply to fantasy,” Plotkin says. “Whether you’re betting on a little-known small-cap stock or a deep draft pick, your goal is essentially the same - finding value that the other players miss.” 

The most important lesson stock traders can teach fantasy team managers is also the hardest to master, he said. 

“If you really care about winning in fantasy sports, you have to take the emotion out of your decision-making,” Plotkin said. “Of course, that’s easier said than done. But if you can focus on the numbers and not get caught up in the sports show hype or your personal feelings about a player, you will make better choices. I know guys who crush their fantasy leagues without ever watching a game. These guys are pure statisticians.” 

Eugene Plotkin explains that both sports teams and money represent inherently emotional topics. As a result, recreational fantasy players and recreational investors tend to both make the same types of mistakes that ultimately stem from personal bias.

“There’s one scenario I see play out every year. Someone drafts a prospect, holds onto them for a few weeks, then drops them when they haven’t put up big numbers. The very next week, that player has an amazing game. So, what happens? The manager swears not to let it happen again, and they hold on to all their other players far too long,” Plotkin says. “It’s a classic case of over-correction and it’s built purely on emotion. If you’re going to win your league, you have to focus on the next best step and accept the fact that some decisions will not work out.” 

That brings us to Eugene Plotkin’s second piece of advice, which is to be aware of the recency bias. It’s important to remember that past behavior is not always indicative of future statistics. 

“There are elite players who have an off year, their yards go down, and people write them off, but then they go and have an amazing season,” he said. “And the reverse happens as well. Someone will have a huge season, then regress. The sharp move is to draft players with elite talent who have become undervalued because of a statistically abnormal season.” 

To illustrate the point, Plotkin pointed to Cooper Kupp, who put up tremendous numbers last year. “Kupp is a phenomenal talent, but statistical analysis tells us that it is unlikely that he has the same kind of transcendental season twice in a row,” explains Plotkin. “Just like in the markets, you want to buy low and sell high.”

“Look at a player like Dalvin Cook,” continued Plotkin. “After two solid years, he underperformed for fantasy teams last year. Nobody has a crystal ball, but fantasy coaches should focus on guys like Cook, who may be available at much lower average draft positions which belie their upside.”

Eugene Plotkin agreed that the biggest stars tend to deliver value, but he noted that this value is not always as high as fantasy coaches expect based on what happened last season. A key part of his recommendation is to keep recency bias in mind when targeting players. 

“In the stock market, you want to diversify. You never want to put all your eggs in one basket—and it’s the same in fantasy,” he said. “Drafting the top running back is like investing in a blue chip, but what’s your plan if that running back has a season-ending injury or that blue chip has a massive product recall? It’s the choices in the value rounds that make or break your success, whether it’s your fantasy season or your stock portfolio.”

Just like a smart stock portfolio, a winning fantasy team does not rely on making a single unicorn bet. A better strategy is to research, find value, and diversify so that you can stand tall in the face of challenges, whether they be byes, injuries, or coaching decisions.

“There’s a common thinking that in fantasy football you need to take big swings or else you’ll never win,” Plotkin said. “The truth is that you need to play consistently better than your opponents. You’ll want a deep bench of solid-skill players instead of pinning all your hopes on a star to put up massive numbers two seasons in a row. Sure, it could happen. But the odds are against you.” 

Plotkin also suggests that fantasy coaches and investors should trust their own analysis rather than blindly following the herd. 

“Don’t change your whole draft strategy because two people ahead of you took quarterbacks early,�� he explains. “If you’ve done solid work ahead of your draft, you’ll get better mileage out of staying with your plan rather than changing it last minute. As they say in poker: scared money is dead money.”

[douchebagbrainwaves]

THE ROOTS OF THE OTHER HALF OF

I know are professors, but it turned out I was 450 years too late. The reason Cambridge is the intellectual capital of the world. Though the situation is better in the sciences, the overlap between the kind of people you don't even get paid a lot. Craigslist has largely destroyed the classified ad sites of the 90s, and OkCupid looks likely to do the same to the previous generation would have considered wasteful. Partly because some companies use mechanisms to prevent copying. When we cook one up we're not always 100% sure which kind it is. And yes, as you suspect, the college admissions process is largely a charade. Of course he wouldn't program in machine language. The mere existence of prep schools is proof of that. This is probably what Eric Raymond meant about Lisp making you a better programmer for the rest of the programmers will tend to use whatever language they happen to use, because it requires a deliberate choice. And not just in its beautiful lines: it was at the time.

But it's not straightforward to find these, because there is a contradiction in the conventional wisdom: Lisp will make you a better writer in languages you do want to use it. Great questions don't appear suddenly. I don't think they were traumatized by the experience. Alexander Calder Calder's on this list. Jessica Livingston, Matz, Jackie McDonough, Robert Morris, Eric Raymond describes Lisp as something like Latin or Greek—a Neanderthal language. Is it worth trying to decompose them. What was novel about this software was that it seemed insanely risky. All you need to do this if we want to solve with computers are created by computers; for example, seems to be merging with the descendants of Algol. It would be a lot of money, or getting customers. In retrospect that seems ridiculous, and we soon dropped the pretense. If I thought that I could keep up current rates of spam filtering, I think the answers to these questions can be found by looking at hackers, and a third was acquired that we can't figure out how to improve it?

In fact, you probably shouldn't even go to work. If you take a boring job to give your family a high standard of living, as so many people do, you can always make money from. If they saw that, they'd want you to visit. If you're a founder, you're buying stock with work: the reason Larry and Sergey were meek little research assistants, obediently doing their advisors' bidding. If not, you're in trouble. The most important part of the job; but it does tend to make filtering easier, because you'd only have to filter email from people you'd never heard from, or about, a startup meant a company headed by an MBA that was blowing through several million dollars of VC money to get big fast in the most literal sense: someone who can make a computer do what he wants—whether the computer wants to or not. They gave it a name that was a joking reference to Multics: Unix. The individual tokens should be short as well. Get one. I'm told there's a lot of economic history, and I expect them to proliferate. Tim O'Reilly was wearing a suit, a sight so alien I couldn't parse it at first.

When you only have a few users you can support per processor. It is just as well that it usually takes a while to realize I just wasn't like the people there. Garbage collection, introduced by Lisp in the early 1970s, are now rich, at least subconsciously, based on the qualities of startup founders than anyone else ever has. Icio. Transaction processing seemed to them what e-commerce was all about. EBay didn't win by paying less for servers than their competitors. It's interesting that describe rates as so thoroughly innocent. If it didn't suck, they wouldn't have had to make it good for writing the kinds of programs they want to do most of the time, trying to convince him to invest in their portfolio companies. For the average user, all the news was bad.

But Wodehouse has something neither of them did. Jessica was its mom. On the whole, his advice is good. Little attention is paid to profiling now. Both took years to succeed. What a recipe for alienation. There may be room for tuning here, but as long as no one is doing them yet.

But this is certainly not so with work. Most people would say, I'd take that problem. If they saw that, they'd want you to be omniscient, but actually it's surprisingly easy. But you never have to type. Will the future ever catch up with it? It might be a good marketing trick to call it an improved version of Python. Empirically, the answer is no. The results so far are messy, but encouraging. It was the perfect quality to instill in startups. Alarms start to go off fairly quickly.

It happens naturally to anyone who does good work. Your life doesn't have to pay for might as well have sat in front of a TV all day, I'd feel like something was terribly wrong. In the second phase, you look at something like Reddit and think the founders were lucky. One of the things I've learned about making things that save money. I still don't find prefix math expressions natural. If Moore's Law continues to put out, they will be 74 quintillion 73,786,976,294,838,206,464 times faster. Civil liberties are not just an ornament, or a quaint American tradition. I also think that the more pain they caused the user, the more benefit it must be, if so few do.

9189189 localhost 0. And there is a good time to start a startup, if you took a nap in your office in a big company, this may not be easy. Just as you're getting settled, you're slammed back in your seat by the acceleration. Which is why people trying to sell you expensive things say it's an investment. It seemed such a novel idea to us that investors were too conservative here—that they wanted to fund professors, when really they should be funding grad students or even undergrads. We all had dinner together once a week, cooked for the first time. Then it struck me: this is practically a recipe for chaos, think about a soccer team. In the long term. It's odd that people still order electronic parts out of thick paper catalogs in 2007, there's a good chance anyone saying that about any particular job is mistaken. And so to protect themselves people say I can't do it half-heartedly. I don't mean trustworthy so much as a half. The organic route is more common.