#does anyone else legitimately think we can still make the playoffs

[lizbookwu3n]

ok i’m in i guess

[thelaclippings]

A Season in Retrospect

So, turns out Kawhi’s knee injury was significantly worse than we thought. I mean, it’s not career ending (at least that we know of), but the reality is that he never was coming back to the 2021 Playoff Picture. Do I think the Clippers handled this information well? Maybe. Do I think the Clippers should do everything in their power to keep Kawhi around long-term? Probably. But do I think betting everything on Kawhi coming back to his prior form justifies selling the farm? Absolutely not.

Here’s the thing: as a Clippers fan I am absolutely happy to see Kawhi having chosen the Clippers as his team of the future two years ago. I was excited to see Paul George traded to LA and not end up in the purple & gold, a year removed from spurning the Lakers in free agency, even if it broke my heart to see SGA heading back to OKC in return. I was happy to watch them piece together a team that could legitimately combat LeBron and his then-new running mate Anthony Davis. But the season came, the Clippers looked great (especially against LA - trust me, I was there opening night in a sea of crying Laker fans) and it took a pandemic to derail everything. 

Now, I am not a Bubble-whiner, but was it ideal to have the Bubble be the lasting impression of what it prototypically means to traverse the grueling 82 game season and battle the best of the best? No. The Bubble had it faults, but the Clippers had every shot to win it all just like anyone else that was there. Their collapse is historic and another black mark on the Clipper name, but for me that was greatly the fault of Doc Rivers and his relentless approach at sticking to his guns and NEVER making the unconventional adjustment. He’s absolutely known for it, and the Bubble proved it. Would this have been any different if there had not been the bubble? Maybe not, but the many factors of what happened between stopped play and restarting in the Bubble had more effect than is given credit for (i.e. Montreal Harrell and the loss of his best friend, his grandmother).

This last season showed that the Clippers can be scary when everything is clicking. Yes, other teams suffered injuries throughout the season but the Clippers always appeared to be playing at a 7 with intent to turn it up to 11 when the playoffs came. But their secret weapon was the adjustments Ty Lue was willing to make. If you rewatch each series, you will see the EXACT same formula in each one. Games 1 & 2 were close losses, and by Game 3 the adjustments would kick in. Each series had a young Superstar taking the reigns and showing they were unstoppable. Stephen A. Smith talked about it after every game and even went so far to declare Donovan Mitchell the “greatest Jazz player of all time” based on his performance against the Clippers. Then, the Clippers would put that fire out and the rest of the team would have to pick up the slack. And despite the positive depth of each team (and the universal agreement that the Clippers lacked depth), the Clippers rose to the occasion time and time again.

And when Kawhi went down, we didn’t blink. The momentum of confidence from the coaching staff gave guys like Terrance Mann & Luke Kennard the added support to produce some amazing performances. I firmly believe the Clippers could have won it all had Game 1 of the WCF had a couple calls go our way and PG hit a single Free Throw at the end of Game 2. Then some adequate rest between the WCF and the Finals might have recharged enough for a true run of the Bucks. BUT this isn’t a woulda-shoulda-coulda. Like the team, even I was exhausted by Game 6 following a marathon of games every other day for a solid 3 weeks. 

So it’s on to the next season. A chance to let the excitement and accomplishments from this past season settle in and optimism of the future. Except we are now regularly inundated with news about Kawhi and his future with the team and what the extent of his injury might mean. And while it is probably the most unpopular opinion on the internet, I’ll be the first to say it: if Kawhi doesn’t want to be here, then he needs to go.

If Kawhi wants to be in Dallas or Miami, then let him. If his only avenue there is through a sign and trade, then get some quality in return for his loss and move on. Make more adjustments, get into the right groove, and move on. 

I’ve watched nearly every game of the last two seasons and Kawhi on the floor is universally the best player. But there are moments - regularly - where I am not confident that he inspires his teammates. He is known to be low-key on his attitude and that can be jarring. I want passion, emotion, excitement. I personally thrive off the energy of others and maybe that’s where seeing Kawhi on TV or from a distance at the Staples Center doesn’t always translate. But PG’s energy does. Even when he’s saying some dumb stuff (Playoff P...) he still seems to have the support of his teammates. Without PG we wouldn’t have kept Reggie Jackson at next-to-nothing. PG might be the reason Reggie sticks around on a reasonable contract over the loads of money another team might throw at him.

Kawhi brought us Ibaka, sure, and barring the injury might have been a really great impact on the playoffs. But it’s the role players that carried us through the playoffs when Kawhi went down. And if Kawhi still had a big hand in keeping them motivated, then let’s not lose him. Let’s hope that matters enough for Kawhi to not only want to stick around but keep this team together.

The idea of trading away the bench in order to bring in another question-mark player is nauseating to me. If we have to lose guys like Patrick Beverly, Marcus Morris, or Terrance Mann, I don’t want to see the return be mid-level guys who need to jive in a new situation. If the return is anyone but Damian Lillard, I don’t want them. No John Wall. No Russell Westbrook. No Ben Simmons. No middle-of-the-road players that don’t truly elevate over what we have. Marcus Morris was once seen as one of these guys, and at his best still is. Why trade him unless you are absolutely certain the guy coming back is better? Pat Bev is the heart of our team, and proved that in crunch time he is still easily the most effective defensive stopper in the league. Don’t believe me, listen to comments from the Jazz series on guys not wanting to get stuck with him on them.

Yes, their contracts are high. And yes, nothing can be done without moving on from these guys. But why does anything need to be done? If there’s one for certain that needs to be addressed, it’s Kawhi. If he is not the leader of this team, which I would argue Paul George has more of the proven leader qualities than Kawhi has outwardly shown, and he might want to play somewhere else, then use his albatross contract and the unknown of his injury and how it affects his future as the last-ditch-effort trade chip to bring some talent back and give us the flexibility.

Would I be opposed to Kawhi-to-Dallas? Mostly, as I don’t like enough of the surrounding talent to come back as collateral. Short of getting every draft pick imaginable from Dallas, guys like Tim Hardaway, Jr. or Kristaps Porzingis don’t give me the confidence that I would want to be traceable assets or reliable otherwise. Hardaway had a great resurgence, sure, but he needs to find a way to Indiana to keep playing for Rick Carlisle. Porzingis on the other hand is still a good player, but has proven he’s not worth the contract and thus untraceable to a third team so you’re stuck with him. And he does not signlehandedly replace what Kawhi brings. I like guys like Maxi Kleber, but then we have so many bigs we wouldn’t know what to do with, and trading away Zubac’s to accommodate incoming bigs would be a huge mistake. I also would hate the combination of Luka & Kawhi from a competitor standpoint. If we ran into Dallas a third time in the playoffs next season, but they now have Kawhi instead, we are toast. Bottom line.

I’d send Kawhi to Miami. Mostly because he would only be our problem if they made it to the finals, and as a basketball fan I’d love to see that Miami team go head to head with the Nets for a couple seasons and see what shakes out. If Kawhi joined Jimmy Butler in Miami, the East would, in my opinion, have effectively balanced itself back out with the West. I also think the return would be better. Guys like Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson, Kendrick Nunn all have trade value. Get some picks in return as well and we have some quality building blocks. Or truly pull off the incredible by making this trade as a stepping stone to another one that nets the Clippers Damian Lillard.

I’ve tinkered with the NBA Trade Machine and made this work a variety of ways. Sending Ibaka to the Blazers and Kawhi to the Heat allows the Clippers to bring back not just Lillard, but potentially one of Miami’s sharpshooters or even a talent like Jones Jr. or Kanter. Sporting a lineup that includes George and Lillard without giving up guys like Morris, Zubac, Mann, or Beverly would be a huge win. Keeping Rondo for experience and leadership would be welcome though he likely wouldn’t play much, and spending the remaining resources on retaining guys like Nic Batum & Reggie Jackson would be crucial.

All in all, I would hate to see Kawhi leave a team that could have won it if the injury never happened. I would hate to see this team broken up at all. Bring back Batum, bring back Jackson. Bring back guys like Cousins or even Pat Pat (despite his effective 0 minutes played in the playoffs). Leadership and chemistry is the final piece in this already established puzzle. 

But if Kawhi needs to follow his own path, then I think the Clippers need to suck it up and move on.

[zaddyzimmermann]

Hot Off The Press

Another AU where Jacky-Boy is a hockey player and Bitty has a job that involves hockey bc that’s my aesthetic. Anyway, I really know nothing about how the world of sports journalism works so there is probably some inaccuracies in here, but it’s an AU so who cares. Artistic license and all that. Very slightly NSFW (i just wanted to get all the warnings out there). 

***

“Are you into men?”

Jack has been asked this question before, but in such a subtle way (and typically involving Parson) that it’s easy to avoid. No reporter has ever straight out asked him. Besides, he’s not gay. He’s bisexual. So when Jack usually tells them, “No.” it’s not a lie. However, this time it feels different. Maybe it wasn't just this particular time, but all the times added onto each other that's finally causing him to really think about what hole he's digging himself into.

The blunt question has him feeling panicky and the other presser notice his reaction too. Jack can’t say no, because that’s not true. He is into men. Jack’s panic quickly shifts, and now he just feels like shoving the microphones away and storming out, because this is hockey goddammit. Not E! news.

“Excuse me?” Jack clears his throat, trying to buy himself some time to think of a properly crafted response. Over the years, he's developed a talent for that.

But everything is on overdrive and he feels his breath start to quicken again--

“Are you into men?” Another reporter asks, and it takes Jack a moment to realize that the reporter isn’t asking him. He’s asking the man who popped the question in the first place.

 All attention, including Jack’s, turns to the small blonde that got lost in the bundle of people. He holds up his mic towards the reporter who popped the question in the first place. 

“Excuse me?” The man mimics Jack, but not intentionally. The man actually looks quite offended to be asked in the first place.

“You don’t like being asked such a personal question do you, Tom?” This reporter has a southern accent that makes him stand out even more among the various presser.

“Shut up, Eric. You’re wasting time as usual--”

“I beg to differ.” Eric snorts. “Last time I checked we are supposed to ask Mr. Zimmermann about his win against Pittsburgh, yet here you are, wasting time asking about something irrelevant to your job. Which is reporting on hockey games.”

Jack suddenly realizes that the two men about ready to attack each other know one another, possibly on a level outside of their jobs. It was an assumption, but they did use first names. Jack has never, in all his three years of being in the NHL, witnessed a fight break out between two reporters mid-interview. Jack just stands there awkwardly, feeling gross and sweaty as the adrenaline from his recent win dies down. 

“Anyway,” Eric Bittle bristles, shouldering his way to the front where he can hold his microphone in front of Jack. “I do believe you scored the winning goal just twenty minutes ago. Very nice. How do you think the remainder of the season is looking?” It sounds like Eric is trying to hide his accent, and Jack is temporarily distracted by his big brown eyes. Then he gets himself together, like he always does, and talks about what he’s good at: Hockey.

***

The second time the same sports reporter defends him, it’s when Pittsburgh beats them on home ice. It’s been at least two months since Jack has even heard about the guy. Eric Bittle writes very little articles, but is used as a credible source for dozens of others.

“Do you think your overdose set you back? With your talent, you could have surpassed your father in records by now.”

It was certainly a backhanded compliment, and it’s not the first time someone has said this to him. Although some days, especially today, Jack really isn’t in the mood. It’s so irrelevant to the subject at hand, it is blatantly disrespectful. However, just as Jack nearly snaps, a familiar voice speaks up from the back.

“That didn’t sound like a question.” Eric Bittle, in all his southern glory, has once again popped up from the shadows when Jack needed it most. “You’re also proposing quite a speculation there, Tom. Like always.” 

“Oh my fu- You’re so unprofessional, Bittle!” Tom, Jack realizes, is the same reporter that gave him trouble last time. 

“Hey, I ain’t the one talkin’ about an offensive speculation.” Eric says breezily, focusing his attention back on Jack. “Alright, Mr. Zimmermann, that game seemed to be rough for you--”

“He didn’t answer my question.” Tom glares at Eric before practically shoving his own microphone in Jack’s face.

“Please don’t interrupt.” Jack suddenly says, eyes flickering to Eric, who had a pleasant and welcoming smile on his face.

“Right, as I was sayin.”

***

Thomas Caswell and Eric Bittle are known for having a feud in the world of social media. Jack couldn’t help look up both reporters, and the first thing that comes up is when Eric first defended Jack during a presser months ago. Thomas was in his early forties, while Eric was in his mid-twenties, basically just starting out. Eric Bittle and Thomas Caswell constantly went back and forth on twitter, and Thomas went as far to even bash Bittle in an article. Thomas is also known for asking the, “hard questions”, which is why he’s so popular. He’s famous for making athletes stumble on their words. Eric Bittle has called him out for that too.

“So, I had to stalk this Eric Bittle guy after what happened last night,” Shitty says, feet propped up on Jack’s coffee table and laptop resting on his naked lap. “The dude actually went to the University of Pennsylvania. That’s an ivy league school, man.”

“I know it’s an ivy league school. What does it matter, anyway?” Jack challenges, his tone a bit annoyed.

“For one, he seems like a fucking genius because he was Valedictorian, which explains how he got a job straight out of college. Second, It’s the reason he only seems to show up when you’re playing the Penguins. They probably picked him up right away.”

Jack doesn’t know why he’s so interested in this guy, but whenever Shitty pries it always piques his curiosity. “Is he with their PR team? I thought he worked for the NHL Network.” 

“He’s brand new, Jack. He was probably assigned to a specific team. He doesn’t typically interview the Penguins, he just interviews the teams they play against.” 

“Has he ever… Defended other players?”

Shitty sighs dramatically and closes his laptop. “It’s what he’s famous for, Jack-O. Why do you think they keep him around? If it were some random reporter that no one really knows, the guy would probably get canned.”

“Wouldn’t that mean he would have been fired already? Like in the beginning, when he first started out, they had no idea he would be famous.”

“He used to run a blog, that’s where they found him.”

Jack can’t help but laugh, and he gives Shitty a pointed look. “You sure know a lot about this guy.”

“I’m a lawyer, Jack.” Shitty pats his arm. “I’m great at stalking people.”

“How do those two things even correlate?”

“You’d be surprised.”

***

The past four games have been a loss for the Providence Falconers, so when Jack and his team lose to Pittsburgh again in overtime after coming so close… He’s in a terrible mood.

However, Jack is the captain and he’s required to give a statement on how hard they worked, and reassure fans that they will keep the spot they currently hold in their division, which will send them to the playoffs.

It’s been about a minute of legitimate questions, ones that are easy to answer because they involve hockey and teamwork. Then, Thomas Caswell (of course), says something so over the top Jack just stared in shock.

“Your performance has been less than usual lately. There has been intense speculation that you might have reverted back to drugs --”

“You have got to be kidding me, Tom.” Jack isn’t surprised it’s Eric Bittle who steps in. “I didn’t hear the word hockey, puck, or overtime once in that sentence.” Eric Bittle’s voice is strained, and Jack is surprised with how angry the man looks on Jack’s behalf.

“Not this again, Bittle.” Tom hisses, his eyes not wavering from Jack’s. “You should be fucking grateful they even let you in here.”

Jack didn’t know what Tom meant by that, but by the look on Eric’s face, he sure did. “You’re a joke. Who let you be a sports reporter, Tom?” Bittle counters, his voice extremely passive aggressive to a point it’s almost scary. “You should work for People magazine with all these rumors you’re tryna spread. I feel like that’s where you belong with this cheap type of reporting--.”

Jack didn’t expect it, and neither did anyone else in the locker room. Eric didn’t expect it either, guessing by his reaction. Jack has never, not even fathomed, a reporter using physical violence on another reporter.

The punch wasn’t meant to break anything, but it wasn’t any less violent. It hit Eric’s nose, so the younger man dropped his microphone as he held a hand over his face.

To no one’s surprise, Thomas Caswell is escorted out as Eric stares after him, still stunned.

“That was rude.” Eric mutters, and Jack is so thrown off by Eric’s dismissive reaction he chuckles a little bit.

The whole situation was almost unheard of, but it didn’t take long for the Falconers PR to clean up the situation. Eric Bittle was escorted by the team trainer to get patched up, while the other presser were escorted out of the locker room. 

“Seems like you have fan, Zimmboni.” Tater laughs, slapping a hand on Jack’s back while shaking him a little. “You go make sure he is okay.”

Jack will, but he takes a shower first. He probably smells disgusting and looks it too.

By the time Jack is dressed and his stuff is packed, he checks to see if Eric Bittle is still around. Of course, he prefers that he isn’t because Jack hates this type of confrontation, or just confrontation in general.

Bittle is sitting on the edge of the examination table, swinging his feet back and forth while he scrolls through his phone. Jack clears his throat, because he doesn’t want to say the first word. Eric glances up and a small smile plays on his face. He has a bandage across his nose and it looks a little bruised. “Hello there, Mr. Zimmermann. What brings you in here?” His voice is a slightly nasally from the pressure wrapped around it.

“I wanted to see if you were, uh, doing okay…” Jack leans on the doorframe, watching Eric Bittle’s face go through several different scenarios.

“That’s awfully kind of you. I’m doing alright, though. It’s not even broken.” Eric Bittle hops off the table and walks over to Jack, extending a hand. “Nice to officially meet you.”

Jack glances down at the hand for a few moments before shaking it. It feels small in his, but extremely warm. “It’s nice to finally meet the man who defends me all the time.”

Eric gives him a laugh as he pulls away his hand. “If you look at it from my perspective, I’m here to talk about hockey not about your personal life. That’s your business.”

“You are the only one who seems to think so.” Jack doesn’t mean it to come out bitter, but he can’t help it.

“That’s because I’m the best of the best, Mr. Zimmermann. I only focus on actual news, not that junk I like to call gossip.”

Jack gives him a genuine smile, but he also isn’t reckless. This man was still a reporter afterall, and the presser were sneaky. Parse almost got caught sucking someone off months ago, because a reporter pretended to be a man who knew nothing about hockey.

Eric seems to notice his change in demeanor, but he doesn’t say anything. “I’m really okay, I ain’t gonna go suing your organization or anything. I’ve dealt with bullies all my life, this isn’t the first time something like this has happened.”

Jack can’t help himself but frown, because Eric Bittle didn’t seem like the type of person to piss people off. According to Shitty, he actually has a large fanbase of people relying on his work.

“Wipe that look off your face.” Eric laughs, and the warmth of it genuinely stuns Jack for a moment. There didn’t seem anything condescending about the way Eric spoke to him, and Jack has heard the passive-aggressive Eric Bittle several times. “I figured you knew why he said I was “lucky to be in the locker room”. Which is so a thing a forty year old man would say.”

“Is it because you’re new?” Jack tries, but Eric only shakes his head.

“It’s because I’m gay.” Eric waits for a reaction from Jack, but Jack doesn’t know why. Then he slowly realizes why Eric looked so upset right before Tom punched him. “Listen, Tom asking you about your sexual preferences all the time just so he can make some offensive speculation makes me and a lot of people really angry. He also thinks it’s ‘unprofessional’ for me to be in men’s locker rooms. I’m surprised I haven’t punched him yet, to be honest.”

“You don’t deserve to be treated that way.” Jack says bluntly. He’s never one for subtlety.

Eric falters for a moment, and Jack becomes tense again. He’s a reporter. Be careful. “No one does, really.” Jack adds.

“You’re a good guy, Mr. Zimmermann.” Bittle finally says after a long pause, then pats his chest. “Just remember, the questions we ask don’t always need an answer. You’re a hockey player, not a reality TV star.”

***

Providence doesn’t play Pittsburgh until both teams are fighting for a spot in the final round of the Stanley Cup playoffs. They were playing on Penguins’ home ice, and in the end, Pittsburgh won by two goals.

Jack has been close to winning the cup before, but never this close. His team is usually kicked out in the first or second round, but this is the first time he’s ever held onto hope for a win.

Jack looks for Eric this time, but he’s not there. He must be with Pittsburgh right now, considering how big of a win this was. Jack didn’t like himself searching for the blonde, because he knew what that meant. He’s not as oblivious to his attraction as he used to be.

Before Jack can wallow in self pity after the loss, Tater drags him to a local bar to try and cheer him up. Jack typically doesn’t drink (because once an addict always an addict) or dance, especially during times like these, but Tater’s loud and optimistic attitude always seems to cheer him up just a little bit, so he gives in. Besides, Tater on the dance floor is a form of entertainment all in its own.

Nevermind.

Even though there are dozens of people here, they still get recognized. Jack and Tater have only been here for thirty minutes, and people can’t seem to leave them alone. Tater likes the company, because fans keep buying him free alcohol even though he doesn’t have to worry about expenses. A girl slides in their booth to settle herself next to Jack, and even though he admires the boldness of her move, it wasn’t welcomed. The last thing Jack wanted was to get involved with someone right now--

 “Mr. Zimmermann? I didn’t peg you for a party boy.”

Jack has never seen Eric in something other than a suit and perfectly kept personna. But of course, because the universe wants him to die a little, Eric is wearing skin tight jeans and tight white shirt that doesn’t leave much to the imagination. For a reporter, Eric is in pretty good shape. His blonde hair is tousled and he looks a little flushed.

 The girl was gone, and Jack wanted nothing more than for Eric Bittle to replace the empty space next to him. Tater was gone and lost in the crowd, probably dancing and entertaining like he usually does. Jack planned on sitting here the entire night so he could drive him home safely… But Eric Bittle seemed like extremely nice company right now.

“Mind if I take a seat?” Eric raises an eyebrow, and Jack only shrugs as he tries not to stare but Crisse....

God dammit.

“I’d buy you a drink, but I’m assuming you’re the designated driver?” Eric holds his head in his hand, giving Jack his undivided attention.

“You’d be assuming right.” Jack says, but he doesn’t continue. He doesn’t really know what’s going on here, and he feels like the two of them are in an awkward equilibrium of assumptions. Jack knows the wheels were turning inside of Eric Bittle’s head, but in no way was Bittle about to make the first move. 

“You weren’t at the presser today.” Jack says to break the silence.

Eric’s smile becomes more flirtatious and Jack is momentarily distracted, but he lets Eric’s voice bring him back in. “Did you miss me, Mr. Zimmermann?”

Jack really doesn’t know how to answer that. He wants to trust this man, and from Shitty’s research he doesn’t seem like the sneaky reporter that nearly cost Kent his career. “Tom wasn’t there to attack me today.” 

“Yeah, he was fired.” Bittle shrugs absently, like it was no big deal. “Thank god he’s gone. Maybe some gossip magazine will pick him up.” 

Jack can’t help but laugh, and he also can’t help that he notices the way Eric lights up. He really, really wanted to take him back to his hotel room. It was a stupid idea, though. He would be outing himself to a man he hardly knows. Besides, Tater hates Ubers so Jack had to make sure he got back safely.

“I heard you’re a genius.” Jack just wanted something to say, because the same silence settled over them again. His face grew immediately warm, though. He basically just admitted he stalked Bittle online.

Eric doesn’t seem to think that, or he’s just really good at hiding the fact he does. His face grows red too, and he avoids Jack’s eyes. “Not really, I mean, it’s all relative.”

“You shouldn’t downplay your achievements.” Jack points out honestly.

“Neither should you.” Eric retaliates. “I know people compare you to your father all the time, and I know me saying this will probably have no affect on you, but you are your own person, Jack. Just because other people compare you two, doesn’t mean you should too.”

Jack, once again, has no idea how to reply to that. For one, he’s a bit annoyed that Eric has made that assumption. Second, he’s also annoyed that Eric is right about that assumption. He says the first thing that helps him deflect his own feelings. “Are you going to put this in an article?” Jack sounds extremely irritated to his own ears, and he internally cringed at that.

Eric raises an eyebrow that tells Jack he’s surprised by the accusation. “Off the record. Didn’t realize that needed to be said. If you don’t see me with a recorder and a mic, I’m off the job. I’m not always working, Jack.”

Jack opens his mouth to maybe apologize for reacting that way, thinking Bittle is mad at him, but Eric just gives him a soft smile.

“I didn’t mean to be intrusive. I’ll leave you be. I didn’t think you might some alone time, I kind of just sat down--” Bittle gets up from the seat across from Jack, and makes his way to be swallowed up by the crowd, but Jack stops him before he even realizes what he’s doing.

“Wait. I got nervous.” Then Jack makes another decision, one he’s probably going to regret later. Jack slides over in the booth, indicating for Eric to join him. Right now, with Eric Bittle in those tight jeans, he doesn’t care about his stupid decision at the moment.

Eric is discreet when he slides in next to Jack. He’s not too close, just in case someone snaps a picture, but he presses his foot against Jack’s calf under the table. When Jack doesn’t move it away, Eric takes that as encouragement.

“Some of those rumors aren’t just rumors.” Jack says quietly, leaning his head slightly towards Eric. “They just aren’t people’s business.”

“Hmm.” Eric hums, trying to read Jack’s face. “That kind of makes me not want to stay here.”

Jack raises an eyebrow in confusion, not quite understanding what he was saying.

Eric pulls away and stands up, and just as Jack’s stomach drops, he turns towards him with a small smirk on his face. “I think we should leave.” 

***

Jack is the first to wake up, and as the sun filters in, he expects Eric’s place beside him to be empty. It’s not, though. His eyes are closed and he looks peaceful, and the sun that hits his blonde hair makes Eric Bittle look impossibly warm.

Jack waited for the wave of regret to hit him, but it never came. Especially when Eric’s eyes fluttered open and a small smile stretched across his face. “You look happy this morning.” 

Jack laughs a little. “Why wouldn’t I be?”

Eric just yawns as he does a half-hearted shrug. “It wouldn’t be the first time I was promptly told to leave. I’m kind of used to it by now.”

That kind of ruins Jack’s mood, because Eric Bittle didn’t deserve that kind of treatment. He tells him as much, too.

“I know.” Eric smiles as his eyes roam over Jack’s bare chest and back up towards his face again. His eyes must catch something he doesn’t like, because now a frown is on Eric’s face. “Oh lord, I didn’t mean to do that.”

Jack isn’t aware what he’s even talking about until Eric reaches over and places two fingers on Jack’s neck. The pressure causes Jack to wince a little.

“You have concealer?” Eric gives him a playful look, and Jack can’t help but return the same look.

“No, but I’ll wear a scarf.” Jack jokes without realizing it.

Eric laughs at that, which mon dieu, is that a wonderful sound to hear first thing in the morning. He glances at the clock over Jack’s shoulder, and the joy is gone as his face fills with disappointment. “Ugh. I need to get to work in two hours.” He pauses, contemplating something, before he asks, “You want to join me in the shower?”

And that’s a “Yes.” without hesitation. In the shower, Jack felt a stinging pain on his back and discovered several scratch marks that broke his skin.

“Sorry.” Eric’s face was really red and Jack couldn’t help but laugh.

They get off one more time in the shower, even though Jack protests when Eric drops to his knees.

“That’s going to hurt later--”

And Eric had replied before Jack even finished speaking, “Shut up, Zimmermann.”

Eric waits at the door in the clothes he wore last night, and gives Jack a sad look. “I’m gonna miss you, Zimmermann.”

Jack feels his stomach drop. “Why? Are you moving or something?”

Eric raises an eyebrow as he places a soft hand on Jack’s cheek. “I was under the impression this was a one time thing.”

“No way.” Jack can’t help but laugh at Eric’s surprised expression. “I’ll text you.”

“But--” Eric frowns. “I don’t see you that often and you have your career and I’m certainly not worth a career like yours and technically you are my job which is unprofessional--”

Jack cuts off his rambling with a quick kiss, but Bittle deepens it anyway so they are making out for a full five minutes before Jack finishes his thought. “If you don’t want to, I’ll leave you alone--”

“Yeah, no chance I’m giving up this prime opportunity.” Eric’s smile is so bright, Jack can’t help but mirror it. “You better text me, Zimmermann.”

“Oh, I will.”

***

There will probably be a part 2 if ya’ll want one. Or if you wanna send me other jobs you wanna see Bitty with I’ll do that too lol

[bacondriver55-blog]

Ask Sam Mailbag: 02.22.19

On Zion. Where's he fit at 6'7" without a jump shot? I know he can drive the ball & jump like a guard, but at 285, doing that incessantly will destroy his knees. Under the hoop, he'll have Wendell's problems multiplied. No matter how high he jumps, a 6'7" guy cannot have the reach of a 7-footer. Barkley is the closest comparison, but he lost a bunch of weight... and he could shoot.

If the Bulls get the #1 pick, I'm leaning toward Ja Morant. On the Bulls, Zion would probably end up on the bench, whereas Ja would be likely to start and push Dunn to the bench. Barrett & Reddish s/b good players too, but probably not significantly better than Otto Porter. Who do you like if the Bulls don't pick in the top 3 or 4? If Zion, Morant, Barrett & Reddish are all gone, who's left who can help the Bulls?

Though the frenzy for top lottery picks is not abating, and probably just getting worse. So... First, I'd drop teams 11-14 from the lottery altogether. Those are the 4 teams who almost made the playoffs. Even though their odds are short, we constantly hear about them rather being in the lottery than losing in the 1st round. Let's start by putting an end to that. Then I'd flatten the odds among the bottom 10 teams, maybe even make them dead even, to discourage tanking into the bottom 3. That might eliminate nonsense like the Knicks sitting Enes Kanter while the fans are screaming for him.

Art Alenik

Sam: And, in case anyone wonders, I received this before the latest game of the century Wednesday that went on for about 34 seconds before Williamson got hurt. While the discussion since has been all about whether he should retire (from college ball) and Mars Blackmon's exclamation about the shoes, I think the injury issue is a legitimate question for other reasons. I don't expect the way Zion comes across personally as someone who would run away from Duke for fear of injury. He seems more committed to his teammates and the program. And even if he were to get injured, he'd still be a high lottery pick. Joel Embiid was injured before the draft and wouldn't play for two years and everyone would take him No. 1 now instead of No. 3. Michael Porter Jr. last year got into the lottery even with back surgery and knowing he wouldn't play for at least a year. Williamson doesn't seem the kind of person interested in money only. If he chooses that way, fine. It's his decision and no one will hold it against him. I'd be surprised if he did. But more so, I'd be concerned about injury and longevity given his size, and more than splitting his sneakers. I'm not a doctor and all that, but it seems this era is overwhelmed with injuries despite the incredible medical and training specialists for every team because of the way we (not me) push our bodies to ends perhaps too excessive. It seems like there's the potential for an unusual amount of strain and torque on the joints, as you suggest, with almost 300 pounds on that size of a body given he's not that tall. There's only so much the knees can take. I'm sure he'll be able to shoot at least as well as Barkley, though I see him more like an Anthony Davis kind of player—not necessarily the same style— but what I'd call a finisher instead of a starter.

The biggest impact stars of the game are the players who start the play with speed and ball handling and push, like LeBron and Durant and Harden and George and Westbrook and Curry. The finishers are players like Davis or Klay Thompson who get the ball from someone and then finish the play. They're great to have, but if they're you're best you probably aren't at the ultimate elite level. It's not to suggest Williamson won't be a superstar. We've hardly seen him play enough, and I cannot see anyone not making him the No. 1 pick in the draft. Because we've really never seen anyone like him, and when someone like that comes along you take him and find a way. No matter how good Markkanen is, Williamson would not be a Bulls backup. Or a backup even on the Warriors. But it is a reasonable point about the point. The Bulls may need my definition of a starter the most.

Meanwhile, as anti-tanking plans go, that one sounds like something. Maybe put those better teams in that single elimination thing that comes up occasionally with the seventh and/or eighth place teams in a play in over a few days at the end of the season. Really, if you're seventh or eighth you don't deserve much. Seventh and eighth don't even get into the playoffs in most sports. Then start the playoffs a few days late as that first round goes too long anyway; cut that down. And, I agree, equalize the odds through the worst six or seven teams in a lottery so that trying to get to 14 wins isn't a goal. I'll contact the commissioner once he figures out how to get out of the mess he helped create with the demand that Anthony Davis continue to play for the Pelicans while not caring or trying.

My thoughts looking at the projected top 3 guys: Zion, Barrett and Morant.

Zion - is he starting at small forward over Porter? Probably, but then you'll have a $25M 6th man. Start him at the 4 over Markkanen? Ehhhh... Would Zion be OK not starting??

Barrett- do you put him on the bench in back of Levine? Can he play a bit of small forward? Trade Levine for a point guard?? Would Barrett be OK not starting?

Morant - I hope we get him... Seems like a perfect fit. Dunn seems like a great backup point guard on a good team.

Joe Dobrzynski

Sam: I've noticed the discussion these days is not so intense about losing games with the percentages the same at 14 for the bottom three and then 12.5 for four, which is where the Bulls now are. But position does matter. The Bulls are playing out the rest of the season to win games. With the addition of Otto Porter Jr. and Lauri Markkanen finally healthy and playing at a higher level, they'll win a reasonable number games. The way it still works in the lottery is once the top three picks are determined—and usually one team breaks through from the bottom—the selections go in order of standings. So if, say, the team with the sixth best odds moves up to No. 1, then the records count for the succeeding draft slots. So the team with the worst record then goes second, the second worst gets third and so on. So like last season, if you're third maybe you get this year's version of Luka Doncic. And if you're fifth or sixth, well, I really haven't watched enough college basketball yet to know. The consensus seems to be your three guys will be gone by four. Like everyone else, I've mostly watched Duke and I think LaVine and Markkanen are better than everyone else I've seen not named Zion. Though you'd think with Illinois already naming a far Chicago suburb after Williamson, it's kismet.

So, here we (maybe) are again. The Bulls may have an opportunity to draft a guy who's a consensus can't-miss, rare talent...who sprained his knee towards the end of his college career. Although the result the first time around was thrilling and I don't regret any part of it as a fan...I'm not sure I'm prepared to do that again after watching that shoe-fail incident and Zion's attendant knee sprain. Besides...we have two awesome power forwards and a top-ten 3 just acquired. We need a point guard, and there's a really good one available. Even if the Bulls (again, not even as odds-against this time) luck into the number one pick overall, they should take the PG from Murray State. Shouldn't they?

Chris Granner

Sam: There are reasons to pass on Williamson, though a knee sprain—assuming it's just that—is not uncommon. But there's that torque from that incredible body. Derrick Rose wasn't even a consensus No. 1. It's been players like LeBron, Patrick Ewing, Anthony Davis, Tim Duncan, Shaquille O'Neal. And Hakeem Olajuwon over Michael Jordan and Greg Oden over Kevin Durant. Should they? I'm wondering more, would they? I doubt it.

Joel Embiid has knee issues, hopefully not serious, but who knows? Then Zion goes down on a freaky first possession play. Maybe a point in the "tanking is bad" club? So you want to tank like the 76ers and take 5 or more years to be relevant and then uh oh maybe your main guy still has knee issues!? You want to tank to get Zion now? Can this get worse for him or could this just be an isolated incident? Just shows it is never a guarantee unless you are the machine that is Lebron James.

Jon Kueper

Sam: The holy grail in sports is the elite superstar player, and no one knows how to get one. They just kind of land on your team and then you take bows. You think the Warriors knew about Curry at No. 7 in the draft? They almost traded him instead of Monta Ellis. You think the Bucks knew about Giannis? They were trying to trade that non lottery pick all over the league that season and when they couldn't get much they did a what the heck. Michael Beasley and O.J. Mayo went before Westbrook in the 2008 Derrick Rose draft, and then Mayo was traded to get Kevin Love, taken below Westbrook. No one knows how you get a player like that unless it's obvious, like LeBron or perhaps now Zion. So you take your shot because otherwise you'll generally just keep trying, anyway. Ask the Portland Trailblazers when everyone knew the next one was Greg Oden. In the meantime, you keep putting together enough talent, like the Bulls are doing now, to become competitive. And then you hope—which is everyone's plan—to get lucky in the draft or free agency or someone's owner decides James Harden isn't worth the extra $5 million.

Too many teams have created max contract spaces than there are premier, tier one free agent players. Some stars may not want to play in a specific market or for a weak team. It's a reasonable expectation that some teams with abundant cap space will not be able to sign preferred players. This sounds like a rerun of the Krause two full boat debacle with Mercer and Boozer but with more teams. A team like the Knicks with a very high pick may be "forced" into a trade to acquire good tier one talent. Assume for the moment that the Knicks were desperate for a player like Davis and were offering their lottery pick. How does the draft pick trade off against a Davis salary and the salary cap? Would the Knicks need to add additional players in that trade to match up the salaries? Are draft picks salary slotted? How are future picks valued? It would seem that pre draft trades and later free agent signings and trades will be more prevalent and especially interesting this year and be somewhat uncharted territory.

John Petersen

Sam: It's another reason we love the NBA. Relax, there's always basketball games talk. Especially playoff time, which is coming most places. The gossip, which always has been part of the NBA back to Wilt demanding trades and Oscar picking his spot with the first real no trade clause, helps make the league special. Draft picks have zero value versus salary until the players sign contracts. Maybe, as speculated and lip read at the All-Star game, Irving and Durant choose the Knicks. Durant would be making the biggest mistake of his career, though what fun we all could have driving him nuts because he reads every Tweet. I can see Irving going to the Knicks because he's always talked about finishing near where he grew up in New Jersey. Plus, I think a part of the Celtics dysfunction this season was the way he bailed out on the team in the playoffs last season and wouldn't even show up for the closing playoff game. Elective surgery from a November injury the day of Game 7? Seriously? Probably didn't want to see LeBron dance after getting himself out of there. Draft picks obviously carry intrinsic value because of their (often inflated) worth in this era.

The reason the Porter trade made sense for the Bulls was the path to attracting free agents is a better record. As Krause painfully discovered. Now we know top guys don't want to be builders. They prefer being joiners. I can see Durant if he chooses to leave, which I wouldn't but which would open up the West, going to the Mavericks or the best place probably would be the Clippers with Leonard. With Kawhi and the guys they have like Lou Williams, the Clippers probably would be better than the Warriors without Durant. Then the West would be wide open, also. If a team like the Knicks got No. 1, it likely would be enough to sell to their fans, like when they got Patrick Ewing in the first lottery, and provide enough hope not to do anything radical. From there, a team can start getting serious. It's ironic that the Bulls were candid and forthcoming and mostly got attacked for it. It made sense to add a veteran like Porter to their young players to eventually get in position for free agency rather than pursuing the fantasy that Durant or Leonard couldn't wait to join a 19-win team and then hear, see, we told you the team would not get a free agent. So why didn't you go for someone like Otto Porter?

Does the Porter trade signal the end of the 'younger and more athletic' phase of the rebuild? Seems to me like they have the pieces they want in place and the focus is on developing them and hoping at least one takes the leap to the next level. Unless we have a top 2 draft pick and get either Zion or Morant, we're likely to add a backup wing/forward. Plan A should be to bring in veteran mentors for the young Bulls. I'd love to see them use their 20ish million in cap space to bring in a combination of players like Rondo, Vince Carter, Danny Green, Taj, and resign RoLo.

Brodie Larsh

Sam: Carmelo should be available, too. Maybe Jordan makes a comeback. You know the commissioner would add him as that 13th guy for the 2020 All-Star game. He and Dominique in the slam dunk. Now that would be something to see. That's a bit too veteran, I'd say. I could see Taj, though I think Taj would rather go somewhere he could play more. I doubt he sees himself as the mentor quite yet.

The problem with bringing in those aging veterans no matter how good it sounds to many fans and media is the players don't much listen to them if they can't play anymore. It's like your parents telling you about what they did. Players roll their eyes, too. With Porter, I think the Bulls are in a good place at, going by the numbers, two, three and four. Wendell Carter is perhaps at five, but they also need some depth and size there. And, of course, there's Dunn and the point guard conundrum. Can he be the guy? If not, you need a fairly high level starter because this time, no really, this time the Bulls have to be playing to be a playoff contender. With Markkanen going into his third season and Zach into his sixth, there's no younger anymore. Porter is a head start into that. We'll, of course, wait out the luck of the lottery and draft. But I expect the addition to be a starter or capable of that. With so many free agents and so many likely to return to their teams, it's too soon to know who even will be there. I expect several new Bulls faces who don't know where the G-league cities are.

Kaiser Gates of the G League Bulls looks ready to come onto the NBA Bulls. He was the Big East's best shooter. I could see him really contributing off the bench as a sharpshooter. And with his size at 6"8 he trumps Blakeney and Alkins. What do you think of bringing him up now?

Ryan Carpel

Sam: Even though guys play for the Windy City team, they are not Bulls minor leaguers. That's only the two-way players, Alkins and Sampson. All the others can sign with any NBA teams. So the Bulls have to have a roster spot to sign someone on a 10-day contract. I think they do have one open, but Hutchison should return soon and I don't know if there's much point in carrying another backup big man at a time they appear to be trying to play a more open game. Is this a tanking thing?

Am I the only one questioning how Anthony Davis can leave a regular season game (and arena) due to a "shoulder injury" but still deem himself able to play in the All Star game? Also why doesn't Adam Silver intervene?

Anthony Reed

Sam: Plus the Cubs, I hear, feel Sammy Sosa may have made him do it and aren't allowing Davis to come back, either, given their historic anger about anyone leaving early.

What are the odds the Bulls bring back Luol? watching the Bulls haven't been the same since they traded him and it would be nice to see him retire a Bull!

Joseph Higgins

Sam: Well, I suggested that recently for Noah and Rose; at least the retirement part. Actually, Lu could be one of those veterans that might be fine closing it out being the bench mentor. How much anyone 22 would listen is another thing, though it would work for me. Though that stuff didn't work too well in the early 2000s when the Bulls brought back Scottie Pippen, Will Perdue B.J. Armstrong and Charles Oakley. Tough to see these guys finish on those 60-loss teams.

Am I right in noticing that amongst the under-25 players in the NBA, the cream of the non-USA players are clearly better than the cream of the USA players?

Simmons, Doncic, Giannis, Embiid... maybe KP or later Markkanen for PF. What group of USA 25 and under is beating that?

Alejandro Yegros

Sam: And you left out Jokic and Porzingis. It is an interesting evolution, and at least demonstrates what we often fail to accept in the United States, that there's excellent athletic talent everywhere. Notice they usually lose the Ryder Cup golf, also. This should be viewed as a positive for the NBA, which remains without walls. You know, Basketball without Borders. Obviously, the depth of talent still is from the United States given our infrastructure. But what we are seeing is more fundamentally sound, mature players coming from outside the U.S. because of our flawed and often corrupt AAU and prep feeder systems. The training and coaching overseas tends to be more disciplined. I suspect it accounts for many U.S. players not reaching their potential, which also helps explains the surfeit of depth. We've got a lot of kids, but they jump around to schools and AAU teams in mostly informal competition and then into the NBA. And aren't ready. It can short circuit a career. I remember when the NBA started the high school direct to pros. Obviously there were some great players, but I remember one GM telling me many of the players who'll be hall of Famers now would max out as all stars, and the players who might be all stars would max out as just good players. Can't prove it either way, but I would not be surprised. So many of these players from overseas are on professional teams playing with adults at a younger age and knowing the game better. Which also is a reason why as they get older and learn the game and competition more, it's so many U.S.-born players who emerge at the top. There are enough developing, young NBA players now no to quite embarrass the U.S., like Karl-Anthony Towns, Jayson Tatum, Donovan Mitchell, Marvin Bagley, Jaren Jackson, De'Aaron Fox. The U.S. will be fine; it's good for the game and the country.

I can't seem to understand the lack of recognition Lauri Markkanen is getting from the media outside of Chicago. I was having a look at his stat line this year and thinking that his improvement as a 2nd year 7-footer has been impressive and he is balling at the moment. For comparison, I compared his 2nd year to more 'hyped' young european bigs - Nikola Jokic and Kristaps Porzingis to highlight this

2nd year

Markkanen (35* gms) - MPG 32.3 / 18.5 pts / 8.8 rbs / FG% 43.7 / 3P% 38.3 / 1.3 ast / 0.7 blk (Season ongoing)

Porzingis (66 gms) - MPG 28.4 / 18.1 pts / 7.2 rbs / FG% 45.0 / 3P% 33.3 / 1.5 ast / 2.0 blk

Jokic (73 gms) - MPG 27.9 / 16.7 pts / 9.8 rbs / FG% 57.7 / 3P% 32.2 / 4.9 ast / 0.8 blk

In Porzingis's second season he was being touted as a revolutionary type player who would change the way the NBA was played. Maybe with New York being the centre of the universe for the media it swayed in his favor but still. Jokic wasn't the high pick the other two were but again, his passing ability and strong play had the media gushing at his 'point-centre' style and he quickly came into the calculation for most promising bigs in the league.

My point is Lauri's stat line is equal and if not better to those two in their second years and yet, we do not hear the plaudits that Jokic and Porzingis were getting at this point in their second year. When it comes to top young bigs in the league, I am startled he doesn't at least seem to be in the conversation.

Caleb Slade

Sam: Out of sight, out of mind. The combination of being on a team last year not much interested in winning and then being hurt half this season, and not being in New York while doing so leaves you out of the conversation. Last year he was awfully shy and didn't speak much to media. He's broken out of that this season, but is mostly humble and defers to others. He's a bit too much of a team player sometimes, in my view. I'd rather see him taking 10 "bad" shots than many others' good shots. He doesn't think that way. But people who know, know. That's why despite not playing until December and playing hurt that month, he still was selected a Rising Stars game starter. The coaches know, and when the Bulls improve, as they should substantially next season without another epidemic of injuries, it's not inconceivable Markkanen could be in the All-Star game conversation as Kemba Walker and Khris Middleton were this year. He's got a higher ceiling than both those players, but still a team not on TV much.

Do you think Rajon Rondo will ever be a head coach in the NBA? You could see what happened to the Pels when they let him go, and we all agree pretty much that his absence against Boston cost the Bulls that series two years ago.

Jim Hecimovich

Sam: The NBA is a lot about out of the box, and if I were looking for a coach I would take a chance on Rondo as player/coach. He's pretty much like that when he's on your team the way he works with the young players and always is searching out film and knows every opponent's plays. He's fit enough and smart enough, I think, to handle both in the model of the Hall of Fame's Lenny Wilkens, the last great player/coach. I know it's said now there's too much to do, but, really I'd take my chances. After all, doesn't everyone have about eight assistants hanging around?

Sam, what is a "protected" draft choice. And what is the significance issue and how is it utilized by management?

Mike Kibler

Sam: This continues my NBA 101 since we always take for granted everyone knows what we know because, well, if we know it how hard could it be? Perhaps that didn't come out right. A protected draft choice means it is transmitted to the other team unless it is at a certain position. It's a way for a team to "protect" itself in case they have a poorer season than they expect. So a team wants to make a trade and the other team wants the first round draft pick for the player. There always has to be some value in a trade. But the team receiving the player is afraid something could happen and their season goes bad. So they "protect" the draft pick through, for example, the first 14 picks. It means if it's in the top 14 they keep it. If it's 14 to 30, it goes to the other team. But the other team eventually has to receive something. So there are provisions written in for, say, "protection" through top 10 the following year, top eight after that and so on until the other team eventually gets something. The terms are part of the trade negotiation. Management uses it as something they can add to a trade of value if just, for example, one player for another isn't enough to get the deal done while having "protection" against a disastrous season and the other team then falling into the next Zion. Oh no!

I was listening to sports radio this morning as White Sox fans called in to complain about the team not signing Manny Machado. One caller blamed it on Reinsdorf being cheap. I'm not really writing about that topic. As evidence this caller said, "This is the same guy who when he signed Michael Jordan said, 'I'm going to regret this.'" The hosts, both longtime Chicago radio and newspaper personalities, didn't contradict him on the quote. It's not a quote or story I've heard before so I wonder if you can shed any light on it.

Cameron Watkins

Sam: It is longtime "evidence" that is specious, but why, you know, mess up your bias. This is what happened back then: Jordan, and to his credit with the occasional private compliant, had finished his eight-year $25 million contract. It was groundbreaking and shocking deal at the time, and, of course, outdated in a few years. Michael never demanded a renegotiation, saying he signed it, so he'd live up to it. Yes, how quaint. Obviously, Michael couldn't lower his ethics to be a college coach. But the White Sox did bring him into their minor league system, as he requested after his this-is-really-final 1993 retirement, and paid him his $4 million annual basketball salary even though he was a minor league baseball player.

SamOK, so he returns to the Bulls late in the 1994-95 season and plays for $4 million in the magical 95-96, 72-win season, and is that season about the 150th best paid in the league. He doesn't say much. Now it's time to pay. How much? The salary cap for 1995-96 was $23 million for the entire team. Patrick Ewing was the highest paid in the league at about $18 million. Only six players earned more than $6 million. Jordan asked for about $55 million over two years. The Bulls proposed year by year a deal that, in the end, would work better for Jordan. So they finally agreed on $30 million for one year. Remember, just four teams in the league had entire team salaries that exceeded $30 million. The Knicks were highest at $43 million with Ewing's 18 million. Pay one guy $30 million? Sure, it was Jordan and he brought more attention to the league than anyone. But pay him more than almost 90 percent of the teams? It's like you are buying a $100,000 auto. You say with a laugh to the salesperson you hope it doesn't break down on the way out of the showroom; you know, I hope I'm not making a mistake. Ha ha. So Reinsdorf offered a bit of a quip about the salary, which was with a laugh, "I hope I don't regret this."

SamLook, Jordan and his agent were smiling. There were cigars. No one in American sports ever even thought about a salary like that. The Bulls team salary immediately went to No. 1 in the league and 35 percent more than the second highest, a rare financial gap. Jordan alone was paid more than the entire payrolls of 20 different teams and well above for one player the total salary cap per team. Maybe you'd make a bit of a nervous joke, also, but the negotiation started above the per team total. No player in the league was even making half Jordan's salary. It even seems like a lot 22 years later when today it would still be in the top 10 of current NBA salaries in a period when the salary cap has gone up more than four fold. Which means in today's NBA it would be an annual salary of maybe $135 million. It doesn't strike me as being cheap. But that's just me.

Source: https://www.nba.com/bulls/news/ask-sam-mailbag-022219

[mastcomm]

All-Star Takeaways – The New York Times

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On a frigid Friday night in Chicago, before the annual Rising Stars Game, Pau Gasol joined the W.N.B.A. star Sue Bird at midcourt to pay homage to Kobe Bryant and the former N.B.A. Commissioner David Stern.

Gasol, one of Bryant’s favorite former teammates with the Los Angeles Lakers, told the story of how “my older brother Kobe used to say, ‘Do epic things always.’”

“So let’s have an epic weekend,” Gasol urged the United Center crowd.

Epic, in truth, was probably not a realistic target so soon after the deaths of Bryant and Stern, both last month. The leaguewide sense of loss is too great.

Yet the 2020 All-Star break did manage to produce memorable moments amid all the grieving. Challenging as it is to truly detach from such circumstances, here are my five biggest takeaways from what we saw (and didn’t see):

The Anthony Davis free throw that clinched the All-Star Game was not the biggest problem with the “Elam” scoring system.

The overwhelming reaction to Sunday’s fourth quarter was positive. Playing to a “target score,” with no clock — and with hundreds of youngsters, set to directly benefit from the outcome through charity, screaming from lower-bowl seats for their heroes — was a more successful formula than the league office ever could have dreamed.

So count me out if you’re looking for a sympathetic ear to join you in getting hung up on the fact that the game ended on a Kyle Lowry foul and Davis’s conversion at the line. This is professional basketball, not pickup at the playground. Fouls and free throws are part of the game.

So I’m holding firm on this one: Sunday’s fare was too unexpectedly uplifting to nitpick.

The real issue here, sadly, is that what so many of us loved about that fourth quarter is bound to backfire someday if the league sticks with this new format.

Just imagine if one of those All-Stars got hurt. The conversation would have changed so quickly if Lowry or Oklahoma City’s Chris Paul or anyone else who was throwing their body around Sunday night had sustained an injury of any note.

Instinct tells me that the Dallas Mavericks, deep down, didn’t mind one bit that Luka Doncic, fresh off a sprained ankle, got bumped out of the most intense quarter in All-Star Game history by Paul on the basis of seniority.

The biggest names in the game, playing as hard as they did, is what basketball romantics like myself have always hoped the All-Star Game could be. But “Elam” scoring will become the scourge of the league as soon as such intense play leads to an injury. Sad but true.

Improbable as this sounds, we’re not talking enough about Zion Williamson.

So much happened in Chicago that the rim Williamson bent in Friday night’s Rising Stars Game featuring first- and second-year players was easily forgotten.

Guard depth in the Western Conference is such that Memphis’s Ja Morant will have to be even better than he has been in a brilliant rookie season to become an All-Star in Year 2, like Doncic and Atlanta’s Trae Young. But I think we can safely say that Williamson, if healthy, is a lock to make it to the big game in Indianapolis next February.

Although his New Orleans Pelicans may run out of time to make up the 5 ½ games by which they trail Morant’s Grizzlies for the final playoff spot in the West, Williamson has been an absolute force in his first 10 regular-season games. In 27.4 minutes per game, Williamson is averaging 22.1 points (on 57.6 percent shooting) and 7.5 rebounds.

Get ready to enjoy him on the All-Star stage for years — health permitting (we repeat).

I can’t wait for March 25.

The Milwaukee Bucks play host to the Houston Rockets that night. It will be their teams’ first meeting since Milwaukee won at Houston on Oct. 24 in the season opener for both.

It will also be the first time Giannis Antetokounmpo squares off against James Harden after a couple of recent shots from Antetokounmpo about The Beard.

Remember how on Feb. 9, we wrote about how Antetokounmpo does anything he wants these days? This apparently now includes a little trash talk, something he had never really engaged in before.

Harden was a vocal critic of the news media’s voting of Antetokounmpo as last season’s regular-season most valuable player — over Harden and his league-leading 36.1 points per game.

Antetokounmpo said nothing at the time, but he has flicked a couple of jabs at Harden in the past few weeks that have been impossible to ignore.

During the All-Star player draft on Feb. 6, Antetokounmpo essentially said he didn’t select Harden for Team Giannis because he dribbles too much. Then on Sunday night, after the All-Star Game, Antetokounmpo announced that his team’s fourth-quarter strategy was essentially getting the ball to whomever Harden was guarding.

Given the prospects of a Bucks-Rockets matchup in the N.B.A. finals, March 25 is thus likely the last time this season that we’re bound to see Antetokounmpo and Harden share the same floor. I would advise you not miss it.

The Luka Doncic and Trae Young GIF from Friday’s Rising Stars Game, after Young dared Doncic to hoist a half-court shot that banked in, makes me laugh every time I see it.

To watch it, click here. To disagree with me, click elsewhere.

For the record: I also loved the modestly snowy Chicago weather for much of the weekend — once we got past a truly arctic Valentine’s Day on Friday — but don’t @ me about that, either.

Michael Jordan’s steadfast insistence on avoiding the spotlight, even for a few minutes, will never make sense to me.

The team Michael Jordan owns played host to the 2019 All-Star Game in Charlotte, N.C. The team Jordan led to six championships in the 1990s just played host to the 2020 All-Star Game in Chicago.

Jordan made the briefest of public appearances last year, when he was essentially considered the All-Star grand marshal, and then stayed completely out of public view this year.

Jordan defenders always tell me, when I bring this stuff up, that I cannot possibly understand how hard it is for His Airness to put himself out there. He’s a very private person, they always say, and makes it his mission to avoid the spotlight.

But Jordan had such direct ties to these last two All-Star Games. This has nothing to do with an ink-stained wretch from the news media like me wanting to interview him; this is about Hornets fans a year ago and Bulls fans worldwide this year who were desperate to see him.

The natural instinct Sunday night, when you saw Scottie Pippen being introduced to a roaring United Center audience, was obviously to ask: Where’s Michael?

One Jordan defender asked me why I haven’t made an issue of the fact that we never saw the Bulls’ team owner Jerry Reinsdorf over the past few days. Fair point. But who is really clamoring to see Reinsdorf except Bulls fans frustrated with the direction of their team?

Mortals like me will never be able to understand what it’s like for Jordan to put himself out there, true, but Barack Obama was an omnipresent figure throughout All-Star festivities. If arrangements can be made to allow the former president of the United States to comfortably serve as such an integral part of the weekend, surely there’s a way for Jordan to let himself be seen for the briefest of glimpses.

The only sure way to see Jordan at the first All-Star Game in Chicago since 1988 was to score an invitation to his exclusive annual party Friday night. Monday is when it really hit me how far behind the scenes he stayed all weekend, because the day after Sunday’s All-Star Game was Jordan’s 57th birthday.

Just as the whole party was leaving town, social media was awash with Jordan tributes and factoids. It’s hard not to be disappointed that Monday’s discourse was as close as the masses got to him.

The Scoop @TheSteinLine

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Corner Three

You ask; I answer. Every week in this space, I’ll field three questions posed via email at marcstein-newsletter@nytimes.com. (Please include your first and last name, as well as the city you’re writing from, and make sure “Corner Three” is in the subject line.)

Q: Are you surprised by the Lakers’ success? Is it purely because of LeBron James’s influence, or are they now a legitimately well-structured team? My hesitation with backing the Lakers is the potential for injuries to bring the whole program down. — David Redfern (Melbourne, Australia)

Stein: I certainly can’t say I expected the Lakers to hold the Western Conference’s best record (41-12) at the All-Star break and establish a 63-win pace. And, yes, much of the credit for that has to go to LeBron James.

If James did not pick the Lakers in free agency in the summer of 2018, Anthony Davis likely would not have followed via trade the following off-season. Those two are so good together that they can make a lot of people look smart.

The roster still has holes — playmaking beyond James, shooting, wing depth — but Lakers management can certainly celebrate its decision to hire Frank Vogel as coach. Although the search was as messy as possible in the moment, Rob Pelinka’s decision to go with Vogel after talks with Tyronn Lue collapsed — with a strong nudge from the team adviser Kurt Rambis — has been a hit.

Worry all you want about the health of James and Davis, but I try not to spend too much time fretting about injuries that haven’t happened yet. What good does that do?

The Lakers are obviously relying heavily on their two studs, but it’s the way it has to be this season. The Clippers have many of the same worries, too, so it’s not exclusively a Lakers problem.

The Lakers appear to have much stronger team chemistry than outsiders imagined, too, which is also largely attributed to James’s influence. Factor in how James has missed only two of Los Angeles’s 53 games, and it must be said that his 17th N.B.A. season is shaping up to be one of his best.

Q: Who was it named for before? — @joesanders33 from Twitter

Stein: Joe is asking about the N.B.A.’s All-Star Most Valuable Player trophy, which has been named in Kobe Bryant’s honor in the wake of Bryant’s death.

Before the change, which the league made official Saturday, its All-Star M.V. P. trophy did not bear a former player’s name. The N.B.A. finals M.V.P. award was named after Bill Russell in 2009.

Q: How far did N.B.A. players run in each decade? As a 72-year-old lifelong fan of the game, I am frustrated hearing about “load management” and how much harder players worked “back in the day” without any data to back up these claims. Where is the data? — William Briggs (Nalcrest, Fla.)

Stein: It’s a great question, William.

The basic eye test tells you that there is more movement in the modern game than ever before, but you’re absolutely right. You can’t say so conclusively without the data. And the sad reality is that the data you seek isn’t available.

The tools teams have to track these things are a relatively new phenomenon, so the data doesn’t go too far back. The only consolation I can offer is that I do believe such data will be available someday.

It’s impossible to say how long it will take, but people much smarter than me who are well-versed in the rise of artificial intelligence would surely tell you that technology will eventually allow the curious to review old games and compute approximate averages.

I don’t think the computing power for processing video is quite there yet, but it will get there. All it would take then is curious souls like you who are willing to do the research. It will happen.

Numbers Game

8

Eight of the 24 All-Stars who played Sunday were classified as international players: Giannis Antetokounmpo (Greece), Luka Doncic (Slovenia), Joel Embiid (Cameroon), Rudy Gobert (France), Nikola Jokic (Serbia), Domantas Sabonis (Lithuania), Pascal Siakam (Cameroon) and Ben Simmons (Australia).

8

Eight teams are on pace to win fewer than 30 games this season entering Thursday’s resumption of play following the All-Star break. They are: Chicago, Charlotte, Detroit, Atlanta, Cleveland and the Knicks in the East, along with Minnesota and Golden State in the West. There were only five sub-30-win teams last season.

7

Only seven teams in the league have winning records against .500-or-better teams. In the East, they are Milwaukee (12-7), Boston (13-9) and Miami (13-11). In the West, they are the Lakers (15-10), Denver (15-9), the Clippers (14-11) and Houston (14-11).

0

Another indication of the San Antonio Spurs’ struggles this season after making 22 consecutive playoff appearances: San Antonio had zero participants in the league’s various All-Star events for the first time since 1996-97. That was the season Coach Gregg Popovich took over for Bob Hill and, after the Spurs posted a 20-62 record, they won the draft lottery and the right to select Tim Duncan.

12

Dallas’s Luka Doncic and the Lakers’ LeBron James are tied for the league lead with 12 triple-doubles this season. Denver’s Nikola Jokic is just behind with 11.

Hit me up anytime on Twitter (@TheSteinLine) or Facebook (@MarcSteinNBA) or Instagram (@marcsteinnba). Send any other feedback to marcstein-newsletter@nytimes.com

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[auburnfamilynews]

At last we’ve arrived at Rivalry Week in the Southeastern Conference. In the East it has less meaning than it does out West. In the East, by the last week of the season, the conference race is finished and most of the division is scheduled to play outside state rivals at each location. While these are never lightly considered games to the fanbase, they hold much less anticipation this year than in previous seasons. The Atlantic Coast conference has seen far better days, and that is most definitely true for both Georgia Tech and Florida State this year. Louisville looks somewhat better, but it’s become painfully obvious there is only one team worth notice in that conference and the game they play this weekend is against their state rival who is also sliding backwards at a furious pace. 

But not so in the West. While the division title is held by LSU, there is a lot more on the line for each team’s final game. Alabama must win and win big to keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive, and Auburn is primed to stop that from happening. LSU also needs to hold course and prevail over a tough Aggie team just a week before they face the Bulldogs in Atlanta. Mississippi State is also in a must-win situation, hoping to become bowl eligible against a running Ole Miss team that invades their home field on Thanksgiving Day.  

For Auburn, no Iron Bowl is small, especially in Jordan-Hare Stadium, but a coveted New Year’s Day bowl game is on the line and a chance to knock Alabama down and out of contention for the College Football Playoff is too good a chance to let go lightly. A win could indeed turn dark night into day be just the thing to carry into the bowl and recruiting seasons for 2020. 

Think the season is over out West? Better reconsider.

SEC West Offense

As the Iron Bowl dawns, it’s clear that the Alabama offense is the star of the show. They’re the second best offense in the SEC West, capable of dynamic play from nearly every angle. Tua might be out, but there are ten more players capable of putting up big yards every game. Auburn’s offense has improved and can potentially target a less than stellar Bama defense, but the story will inevitably center on what the Alabama offense can or cannot do at Jordan-Hare stadium.

The Egg Bowl pits two remarkably paired teams for Thanksgiving. Ole Miss isn’t going to the post season and the Bullies are on the verge of joining them on the couch for a not-so-happy-New-Year. The key game this weekend? Texas A&M at LSU. Let the Bengals slide ever so slightly and they could find themselves in a cage fight just a week before the SEC Championship. Lose one or both and they might be shut out of the CFP here at the last. 

But I doubt that will happen, not the way the Bayou Bengals have been playing.

SEC West Defense

Here is where Auburn fans have expressed hope as they enter the Iron Bowl. Alabama’s defense is definitely not what it has been in the past. If anything, the helmets have switched from the 2010 Iron Bowl in which a dynamic Auburn offense met a brick wall Bama defense and for most of the game, couldn’t accomplish all that much. The question here is, what can the Auburn offense leverage from the Bama defense?

For the Egg Bowl, Ole Miss has a slight edge on offense and Mississippi State has a slight edge on defense. But all in all, it looks like a coin flip difference. LSU and Texas A&M is a slightly different story. The Aggie defense is solid and capable, and depending on how tight they cover the LSU receivers, might turn that game into another low-scoring single score fight like the Auburn game.

Don’t count the Aggies out on this one.  They might not win, but I believe they’ll make it a tight game.

SEC East Offense

With four teams in the SEC East playing out of conference rivals, there isn’t much to contemplate about the division race. Both Tennessee and Kentucky became bowl eligible last, and the only questions that remain is whether Tennessee and Missouri  can pull out a wins against the likes of Vanderbilt and Arkansas. For Tennessee it will mean a seven-win season and for Missouri they can wheeze across the line of bowl eligibility here at the last. 

But do look at the paucity of offensive effort in the East. There really isn’t much going on for anyone. Despite the CFP rankings, Georgia hasn’t been putting up numbers like the other CFP hopefuls and a loss in the SEC Championship will take right out of consideration. Who will replace them? Not a two-loss Alabama, that’s for sure.

If that happens, and the above is the reason, look for rapid changes on this side of the ball for nearly every team in the East. They’ll see the LSU model and want to copy it. 

SEC East Defense

I believe that some of these numbers are inflated due to the problems on offense, especially in the case of South Carolina and Missouri. When faced with good teams, they’ve both wilted. Georgia’s defense is legitimate, and Florida’s pass rush is legendary, especially on the edge.  Tennessee’s numbers have been growing as the season has progressed and is finally looking respectable. 

State of the Conference

With only the final week of conference games in the West and a couple more in the East, what you see above may be the limit of the 2019 season.

Maybe. 

The conference championship attendees may have been decided, but how they enter and exit that game and the results of the remaining rivalry games in the season are never something to take for granted. However unlikely, there remains at least a chance that the Texas A&M-LSU game or the Iron Bowl could throw a laughter filled plot twist into the College Football Playoff calculations that will turn the 2019 season on its collective ear. 

This is actually normal. The same could happen this weekend in Ann Arbor, Stillwater or even Columbia, South Carolina. An upset in a rivalry game is good for the soul from time to time. It happens many more teams than is ever expected year to year. 

This is the entire reason we watch these games, no matter how well or poorly each of the teams are expected to play. The ball still has to be snapped, handled well and carried across the goal line. Tackles will still have to be made, either in the open field, on a shoe string or even (dare I say it?)  on a failed field goal attempt.

Else you run the risk of having everything you’ve worked for go up in a cloud of smoke. So no matter how favored one team is over another, the games are still played for a reason. Because college football games are never decided on expectation, only in execution. 

Victory comes from some unlikely players from time to time. Often unexpectedly.

The post Tiger-Eye Review – Dark Night into Day Edition appeared first on Track 'Em Tigers, Auburn's oldest and most read independent blog.

from Track 'Em Tigers, Auburn's oldest and most read independent blog http://trackemtigers.com/tiger-eye-review-dark-night-into-day-edition/

[flauntpage]

Roger Goodell is Once Again Full of Shit

Fresh off the recent shitshow of bad calls and no calls impacting the conference championship games a week and a half ago—which the NFL has never officially addressed outside of fining Rams cornerback Nickell Robey-Coleman for his hit and responding to a New Orleans Saints fan's lawsuit—Roger Goodell stood before the media on Wednesday to serve his ultimate purpose: as flak jacket for 32 billionaires.

After sidestepping questions about the controversial pass-interference-that-(apparently)-wasn't, Goodell was asked about the continued absence of Colin Kaepernick from any NFL roster. Goodell, once again, trotted out some meritocratic fantasy as the real reason Kaepernick's number hasn't been called and because, you know, teams have collectively decided they would literally have five-interceptions-in-a-half Nathan Peterman before even thinking of a guy who brought Jim Harbaugh to the Super Bowl.

"I’ve said it many times privately, publicly that our clubs are the ones that make decisions on players that they want to have on their roster," Goodell said at a press conference in Atlanta, the site of Sunday's Super Bowl.

"I think if a team decides that Colin Kaepernick or any other player can help their team win, that’s what they’ll do," he added. "They want to win, and they make those decisions individually in best interest of their club."

This is the classic sports response that everyone wants to believe is true—especially with a gladiator sport like football—but is belied by everything the NFL does.

For this to be true, we are to believe that the Buffalo Bills looked at Peterman and Kaepernick and objectively determined that Peterman would net them more wins.

Similarly, the Arizona Cardinals had to have looked at Sam Bradford, who has averaged just 9 starts in a career that spanned 9 years (including a season lost to an ACL injury)—and still managed to throw 61 interceptions—and thought he'd be a better option than Kaepernick.

(The Cardinals cut Bradford less than two months into the season and will be selecting first in April's draft.)

And we haven't even gotten to Blaine Gabbert. Blaine Gabbert! Blaine! Motherfucking! Gabbert! The Tennessee Titans, under Goodell's logic, literally thought Blaine Gabbert would help their team more than Colin Kaepernick.

Washington! Oh my god, Washington. Due to injuries, they brought in MARK SANCHEZ in the middle of a playoff push as a starter rather than Kaepernick. They then went ahead and signed Josh Johnson—a man who had not thrown a pass since 2011 and who backed up, you guessed it, Colin Kaepernick in San Francisco where they ran a West Coast offense, just like Washington—instead of Kaep.

I could go on and on, or you could read on and on about more quarterbacks who made it onto NFL rosters this year right here—but you get the point. It's all bullshit.

There is no way Roger Goodell or anyone else can credibly say that he or she looked at two quarterbacks, one of whom was Colin Kaepernick, and objectively determined that the other guy would help more than Kaepernick. And do you know why? Because Kaepernick hasn't even gotten a phone call, let alone a tryout from a team.

Roger Goodell's statements today imply that 32 organizations decided the two, or three, quarterbacks on their rosters would help the team more than Colin Kaepernick without ever bringing him in and watching him try to run their offense.

The rest—that he's been blackballed for having the nerve to speak out against institutional oppression and systemic racism at a time when it is so plain to see, that at best teams are scared of the backlash they believe he might bring from their racist fan bases, and that everyone in Washington should be fired from their positions and kicked out of the NFL for life if they legitimately thought those two guys were better options than Kaepernick—is messy but almost certainly true (that last part definitely is).

So if you don't have the stomach to ponder the hard truths of today—you really should, though—there's a cleaner route you can take. Evaluate the differences between what people say, and what they do, and please stop letting billionaires bullshit you.

Roger Goodell is Once Again Full of Shit published first on https://footballhighlightseurope.tumblr.com/

[leehaws]

Roger Goodell is Once Again Full of Shit

Fresh off the recent shitshow of bad calls and no calls impacting the conference championship games a week and a half ago—which the NFL has never officially addressed outside of fining Rams cornerback Nickell Robey-Coleman for his hit and responding to a New Orleans Saints fan’s lawsuit—Roger Goodell stood before the media on Wednesday to serve his ultimate purpose: as flak jacket for 32 billionaires.

After sidestepping questions about the controversial pass-interference-that-(apparently)-wasn’t, Goodell was asked about the continued absence of Colin Kaepernick from any NFL roster. Goodell, once again, trotted out some meritocratic fantasy as the real reason Kaepernick’s number hasn’t been called and because, you know, teams have collectively decided they would literally have five-interceptions-in-a-half Nathan Peterman before even thinking of a guy who brought Jim Harbaugh to the Super Bowl.

“I’ve said it many times privately, publicly that our clubs are the ones that make decisions on players that they want to have on their roster,” Goodell said at a press conference in Atlanta, the site of Sunday’s Super Bowl.

“I think if a team decides that Colin Kaepernick or any other player can help their team win, that’s what they’ll do,” he added. “They want to win, and they make those decisions individually in best interest of their club.”

This is the classic sports response that everyone wants to believe is true—especially with a gladiator sport like football—but is belied by everything the NFL does.

https://sports.vice.com/en_us/embed/article/a3m93z/the-year-in-nfl-qbs-not-named-colin-kaepernick?utm_source=stylizedembed_sports.vice.com&utm_campaign=59xgpn&site=sports

For this to be true, we are to believe that the Buffalo Bills looked at Peterman and Kaepernick and objectively determined that Peterman would net them more wins.

Similarly, the Arizona Cardinals had to have looked at Sam Bradford, who has averaged just 9 starts in a career that spanned 9 years (including a season lost to an ACL injury)—and still managed to throw 61 interceptions—and thought he’d be a better option than Kaepernick.

(The Cardinals cut Bradford less than two months into the season and will be selecting first in April’s draft.)

And we haven’t even gotten to Blaine Gabbert. Blaine Gabbert! Blaine! Motherfucking! Gabbert! The Tennessee Titans, under Goodell’s logic, literally thought Blaine Gabbert would help their team more than Colin Kaepernick.

Washington! Oh my god, Washington. Due to injuries, they brought in MARK SANCHEZ in the middle of a playoff push as a starter rather than Kaepernick. They then went ahead and signed Josh Johnson—a man who had not thrown a pass since 2011 and who backed up, you guessed it, Colin Kaepernick in San Francisco where they ran a West Coast offense, just like Washington—instead of Kaep.

I could go on and on, or you could read on and on about more quarterbacks who made it onto NFL rosters this year right here—but you get the point. It’s all bullshit.

There is no way Roger Goodell or anyone else can credibly say that he or she looked at two quarterbacks, one of whom was Colin Kaepernick, and objectively determined that the other guy would help more than Kaepernick. And do you know why? Because Kaepernick hasn’t even gotten a phone call, let alone a tryout from a team.

Roger Goodell’s statements today imply that 32 organizations decided the two, or three, quarterbacks on their rosters would help the team more than Colin Kaepernick without ever bringing him in and watching him try to run their offense.

The rest—that he’s been blackballed for having the nerve to speak out against institutional oppression and systemic racism at a time when it is so plain to see, that at best teams are scared of the backlash they believe he might bring from their racist fan bases, and that everyone in Washington should be fired from their positions and kicked out of the NFL for life if they legitimately thought those two guys were better options than Kaepernick—is messy but almost certainly true (that last part definitely is).

So if you don’t have the stomach to ponder the hard truths of today—you really should, though—there’s a cleaner route you can take. Evaluate the differences between what people say, and what they do, and please stop letting billionaires bullshit you.

Roger Goodell is Once Again Full of Shit syndicated from https://justinbetreviews.wordpress.com/

[zeroviraluniverse-blog]

Can Alex Ovechkin top Wayne Gretzky's record of 894 goals?

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Can Alex Ovechkin top Wayne Gretzky's record of 894 goals?

Alex Ovechkin scored goal No. 600 against the Jets, and now sets his sights on Jari Kurri (601), Dino Ciccarelli (608) and Bobby Hull (610) on the all-time list. But there’s a name a bit higher on the list that piques our interest a bit more: Wayne Gretzky, who holds the career goal-scoring record, with 894 tallies.

Will Ovechkin top the Great One before he hangs up his skates? Our experts weigh in:

Greg Wyshynski, senior writer: When I was a younger hockey fan, Wayne Gretzky’s record of 894 goals always felt like a record that was formidable but not unbreakable.

Which teams have the best shot at locking up a playoff spot? Who’s earning a better shot at the No. 1 overall pick? Here are the latest projections for both, along with critical matchups to watch today and much more.

Alex Ovechkin has reached 600 career goals, but how well do you know the details of the Washington Capitals star’s scoring dominance? Test your knowledge here!

Stay with us on this one: If you project ahead to age 40, writes John Buccigross, a healthy and driven Alex Ovechkin could surpass Wayne Gretzky’s incredible record of 894 career goals.

2 Related

This was mainly because I figured the NHL would find a way to overcorrect for improved defensive systems with, like, soccer-sized nets that would create more asterisks in the record book than the shift key. But it was also because I had seen players who would have legitimately threatened Gretzky’s mark were it not for external forces: Mario Lemieux‘s tragically truncated career and Jaromir Jagr losing games to both labor stoppages and his KHL sabbatical.

Alex Ovechkin is one such player. And if those external forces don’t screw it up, he’s going to break Wayne Gretzky’s record.

If he scores 50 goals this season, he’ll be at 608. Let’s assume he plays the last three seasons of his current contract and then five more NHL seasons after that on a new one. Let’s also assume an average of 36 goals per season in that span; this would put him at 896. This isn’t that outlandish at all when you consider he has been below 36 goals in a season only twice in his NHL career during a full season. Meanwhile, he has popped 50 goals in three of the past four seasons — and probably will again this season.

Scoring more than 30 goals into your twilight years isn’t unheard of, at least for durable players. Martin St. Louis (39) and Teemu Selanne (40) did it. Selanne, Jagr (43), Daniel Alfredsson (39), Shane Doan (39) and Brendan Shanahan (38) all had 27 goals or better later in their careers.

But again, we come back to those external forces. Ovechkin has shown a startling durability during his career, to the point where it almost has become a meme: “Russian Machine Never Break!” Will that machine be as fine-tuned when he’s 37? And as Lemieux will tell you, there’s no accounting for unforeseen health calamities.

The other external forces are the ones Jagr faced. The NHL and the NHL Players’ Association seem to be headed to something less than collective bargaining Armageddon in a few years, but there never has been a CBA negotiation in the past 30 years without a work stoppage. Then there’s the KHL question: There has been speculation for years, mostly from the KHL side, that Ovechkin would like to finish his playing days in Russia. Would he leave before the pursuit of Gretzky’s record is complete?

Barring those external forces, Ovechkin can break Gretzky’s record. But don’t take it from me.

“If he can sustain his pace, there’s no question in my mind that he has the ability and the talent and the work ethic to be able to do it. And if he does it, I’ll be the first guy there to shake his hand. If there is one guy out there that can do it, there’s no question it’s him,” Wayne Gretzky told NHL.com in 2016.

It won’t be easy. “The first 500 are the easy ones,” Gretzky said. “It’s the next 500, when you’re getting a little bit older and your body is a little bit worn down — the travel and physical part of the game catches up to you.”

Emily Kaplan, national reporter: If you had asked me this summer, I likely would have said no way. Ovechkin’s 33 goals in 2016-17 were his fewest in a non-lockout season since 2010-11, and his ice time was shaved to a career-low average of 18:22 to preserve him for the playoffs. By the end of the Pittsburgh series, Barry Trotz had moved Ovechkin to the third line, and the winger finished the playoffs with five goals and three assists in 13 games as he battled knee and hamstring injuries. “I think [Ovechkin is] going to have to think of ways he can evolve into a player that still has a major impact on the game,” GM Brian MacLellan told reporters in May, publicly challenging his star. It felt like all signs pointed to regression. Ovechkin’s dominance in the NHL felt tenuous at best.

This season? Ovechkin is the one laughing now. At 32, he’s proving that not only does he still have it, but also we should probably stop preparing for his imminent demise. Another 50-goal season is well within reach. He is the leader for (yet another) Maurice Richard trophy. The only question here is durability. Ovechkin doesn’t have the benefit of playing in the wild-scoring ’80s — for a four-season stretch between 1981 and 1985, Gretzky averaged more than 80 goals per season. That allowed Gretzky to reach his gaudy goal total in 20 seasons, even with a few dud seasons toward the end. Say Ovechkin ends up with 50 goals this season. That puts him at 608, just 286 shy of Gretzky. If Ovechkin is still averaging about 47 goals per season, he’d need to play six more seasons to reach Gretzky. We need to assume Ovechkin might tail off a bit in his late 30s, just as Gretzky did, so it could take eight or nine seasons for him to reach that total.

In training camp, I asked Ovechkin how long he’d like to keep playing. He told me, “I still have lots of time to set up my legacy and how I want to be remembered. I still have time to make history. I’m 32 only. [For] a couple more years, I am going to be at a high level. You never know when your career is going to be done or what’s going to happen in the future. But I need to win a Stanley Cup.” That’s the thing; the goal for Ovechkin is always the elusive team hardware. If the Capitals can’t get over the playoff hump, Ovechkin’s legacy will be cemented by individual achievement. And that probably means surpassing Gretzky’s goal total — and, well, I’m done with the business of counting Ovi out.

Chris Peters, hockey prospects writer: This is a tough one, but the fact that this isn’t a crazy question to ask at this point is incredible in itself. There are so many factors to consider, and as Emily noted, durability is one of them. We know that Ovechkin typically plays a full season, rarely missing a game. Then come the playoffs, and then the World Championship. He has put a lot of miles on his body, but he just keeps coming back and looking at least close to the same player we know. These next two to three years should tell us a lot about the level he is able to maintain.

Missed an episode of the ESPN On Ice podcast with Greg Wyshynski and Emily Kaplan? Find all the episodes from the show’s catalogue here. Listen »

The biggest thing I’m going to be watching the next few years is Ovechkin’s ability to maintain his shot volume. With a shot such as his, as long as he keeps getting himself in position to get it on net as much as he does, the goals are going to keep coming. Last season was the lowest shot total of his career, and now he’s trending back up this season. It’s so simple, but shooting a bunch obviously helps. There is not yet a noticeable trend in the way his shot volume fluctuates to expect a massive drop-off anytime soon.

Here’s where things get tricky, though. The Stanley Cup and an Olympic gold medal are two major driving forces for Ovechkin, there’s no doubt. The Caps always seem so close and yet so far from Cup contention, but if they manage to win it, how much longer does Ovechkin stick around after that happens? Especially if there’s still an opportunity for him to win gold with Russia and the NHL decides not to go to the 2022 Olympics in Beijing? There are a ton of what-ifs in there, but I think the Olympics discussion is one worth having, considering that his contract runs out after the 2020-21 season. It could, at the very least, interrupt his path to setting the new standard.

Selfishly, I hope Ovechkin plays in the NHL deep into his 40s like Jaromir Jagr, even if there ends up being a KHL/Olympics interruption in there. There is no one like him, and there never will be again. I have just enough doubt, however, to say he’ll fall just shy of the Great One’s record, but I’ll be watching as intently as anyone else wondering if he can do it.

Sean Allen, fantasy analyst: Yes. As much as I hate to see the Great One’s record fall, I believe Ovechkin is going to do it.

Let’s extrapolate with a comparable player from a comparable era. Teemu Selanne played the bulk of his career in an era with similar NHL scoring as Ovechkin. In fact, if anything, Selanne got a couple of years of an advantage prior to the dead puck era for his total, but I’m focused here on Selanne’s totals from 2003-04 forward.

Ovechkin and Selanne have a similar offensive skill set based on their sniping ability. I won’t go so far as to suggest that Ovechkin has the skating ability of Selanne or that Selanne has the physical presence of Ovechkin. This isn’t apples to apples. But it’s not hard to envision either player in the offensive circle blasting a one-timer into the back of the net. Assuming Ovechkin finishes this season with 50 goals, he would have 608 goals through his age-32 season. If he matches Selanne’s career goal-for-goal following Selanne’s age-32 campaign, Ovechkin would retire at the age of 43 with 856 goals.

Oh, just shy of the record, right? What if I told you that Selanne had only 16 total goals in his age-33 and age-34 seasons combined? He tallied 16 goals during his failed tenure with the Colorado Avalanche and then lost the following season to the lockout.

Now, 33 and 34 aren’t prime ages by any means, but 16 goals total for the next two seasons sounds crazy low for Ovechkin, no? Let’s say he gets only a combined 55 total goals in 2018-19 and 2019-20 (which, again, is a lowball estimate); if he does that and then matches Selanne’s twilight from age 35 to 43, all of a sudden that puts him on pace for 895.

Selanne was a special player, but Ovechkin is no less special himself. Boil it down to this: Do I believe Ovechkin can score 38 more goals than Selanne did between the ages of 33 and 43? Maybe. Do I believe he can do it with the knowledge that Selanne played only 72 percent of his potential total games in that span? I do.

[amtushinfosolutionspage]

DGB Grab Bag: Goodbye Jagr, Hello Whalers, and Brad Marchand, Comedy Star?

Three Stars of Comedy (All-Star weekend edition)

The All-Star weekend is weird. It’s pretty much the only time all year that NHL players are allowed to show any personality, or at least try to. Some jump at the opportunity. Most don’t. And the results are always hit-and-miss.

It’s been especially tough to find a good laugh at the event ever since the NHL dropped the breakaway challenge that had some of the stars playing dress-up or otherwise getting creative. And no, we’re not going to go with this year’s Wes McCauley’s offside review announcement, because the fact that the NHL had an offside review in an all-star game was just sad. But even if we’re grading on a curve, we’ll hand out some points for effort at this year’s event.

The third star: Erik Karlsson and Victor Hedman – Their pirate costume routine was fun, at least as long as it wasn’t foreshadowing a Karlsson-to-Tampa trade that would basically guarantee the Lightning a Cup. But the real star was this quote from Karlsson.

The second star: Brian Mach’s grandmother – Mach is an NHL linesman who got to work all-star weekend for the first time. Grandma was not impressed.

The first star: Brad Marchand – Yeah, he wouldn’t have been my pick to steal the show either. But by embracing the heel role, Marchand at least looked like he was having fun. From his sarcastic waving to to his over-the-top injury faking, Marchand came across as… well, not remotely likable, but at least vaguely self-aware. In the NHL, that’s something.

Overall, we’ll give the weekend a C+. Ah well. While only a few of their All-Stars were all that interesting, at least we still have Jaromir Jagr, right? Now to take a big sip of water and move on to the next section…

Outrage of the Week

The issue: Jaromir Jagr has been released by the Calgary Flames and signed with a team in the Czech league, all but certainly spelling the end of his NHL career.

The outrage: NOOOOO!

Is it justified: We knew it was coming. We had plenty of time to prepare. We should be OK with this.

We are not OK with this.

And I feel pretty safe saying “we,” because over the years Jagr somehow morphed into a universally beloved figure among hockey fans. He’d basically taken over Teemu Selanne’s role as the guy that just about nobody disliked. Even Penguin fans who weren’t over the whole 2011 bait-and-switch, or Capitals fans still trying to figure out how he went from perennial Art Ross winner to “guy it makes sense to trade straight-up for Anson Carter” overnight were mostly OK with him by now.

That’s a weird twist on a memorable career, given how Jagr arrived in the NHL. Back in the early 90s, when he arrived as Mario Lemieux’s sidekick and immediately won two Cups in his first two seasons, plenty of us didn’t like him. He was the poster child for a certain kind of flashy European player that we were having trouble getting used to. The NHL was a league where you weren’t supposed to smile if you scored a goal; having your own trademark celebration was basically a felony violation of The Code. So even when he took over from Mario as the league’s best player, we loved seeing him get his comeuppance.

He just didn’t get it very often. The Washington debacle seemed to spell the end of him as a legitimate superstar, but then came his rebirth with the post-lockout Rangers. Little did we know he had another dozen years left. He spent a few of those in the KHL, and that and the two seasons’ worth of time he lost to Gary Bettman’s lockouts might have cost him a run at the all-time goals crown. The fact that we can even conceive of that for a guy who played 80 percent of his career in the Dead Puck era is ridiculous. Even better, he emerged as one of the game’s better personalities, and both he and we loosened up over the years.

But now it’s over. Probably. Nobody would be completely shocked if Jagr showed up again some time next season for one more run. We’ve been here before, after all. But this time feels different. This really does feel like the end.

So thank you, Jaromir. Father Time catches up to us all eventually, but you sure made him work for it. We’ll see you in the Hall of Fame in three years or so. And until then, we’ll always have your awkward draft day and your ridiculous highlight-reel goals and yes, the image of your injured groin slathered in peanut butter. It’s been a trip.

Obscure Former Player of the Week

Today marks the 41st anniversary of one of the weirder record-breaking performances in NHL history: Maple Leafs defenseman Ian Turnbull’s five-goal game. Not surprisingly, it’s the only time a blueliner has ever scored five times in a single game; even hat tricks by defensemen are relatively rare, with only 42 players managing the feat in the last 30 years. Many of those names are the ones you’d expect, like Al MacInnis, Paul Coffey, and Shea Weber. A few are not, including this week’s obscure player: Deron Quint.

Quint was a second-round pick by the Jets in the 1994 draft. He made his debut during the 1995-96 season, the team’s last in Winnipeg, and held down a regular roster spot in Phoenix before being dealt to the Devils for Lyle Odelein at the 2000 deadline. His stay in New Jersey didn’t last long, as he was dealt to the expansion Blue Jackets that offseason. He’d spend two years in Columbus before bouncing around the league for several seasons, making stops with the Blackhawks, Islanders, and Coyotes (again). His NHL days ended in 2007, but he continued his career in Europe for another decade, earning all-star honors in the KHL.

Quint was never much of a goal scorer, at least at the NHL level; he had only 46 in his career, and his high for a single season was just seven. But he briefly found his scoring touch on March 9, 2001, recording the hat trick in a 7-6 Blue Jackets win over the Panthers. All three goals came in the second period.

Oddly enough, that’s not even the strangest Deron Quint goal-scoring feat. As a rookie in December 1995, Quint matched a six-decades-old NHL record by managing to score two goals in four seconds. How does a defenseman pull that off? As you’ll see below, a little bit of luck helps.

The NHL Carolina Hurricanes Actually Got Something Right

The Hurricanes have a new owner. He’s a 46-year-old billionaire named Tom Dundon, and so far he’s been saying all the right things about wanting to win and keeping the team in Carolina. That’s a positive development for a long-suffering fan base, but for the most part it doesn’t really matter much to anyone else. The Hurricanes will continue their playoff push, they’ll keep being that one team you always forget is in the Metro, and Canadians will continue to make up stories about them being on the verge of moving to Quebec. New ownership is a nice enough development, but that’s about all it is.

Well, until this week. Because now we know that Dundon is toying with the idea of bringing back the Hartford Whalers.

Well, not the actual team. But Dundon would apparently like to reestablish the team’s ties to its own history. That means selling Whalers merchandise, and maybe even playing games wearing the old uniforms (which were recently voted the league’s second-best ever).

And, by far most importantly of all, the glory that is Brass Bonanza. It’s back.

Hell yeah. In a sports world where retro is all the rage, this just seems like common sense, and it’s a surprise that the NHL’s various relocated teams don’t do more of this sort of thing. You can understand not wanting to jump into right away, when fans in your old city are still recovering from the loss of a team; you don’t want to wipe their face in it. And in cases like the Coyotes and Stars, where the old city eventually got another team, then you may not want to step on any toes.

But at this point it feels pretty safe to say that the NHL isn’t heading back to Hartford anytime soon. So bring on the green and white. Find out what Pucky the Whale is up to these days. And by all means, blare that beautiful Brass Bonanza every chance you get.

(And be sure to crank it up extra loud whenever Brian Burke and the Flames are in town.)

Classic YouTube Clip Breakdown

We’re one week away from the start of the Winter Olympics, which won’t feature NHL players for the first time in 24 years. That’s disappointing, and it’s going to make the tournament a tough sell, no matter what those intellectual eggheads in the New York Times try to tell you. Still, we might as well make the best of it. So today, let’s look back at the last pre-NHL gold medal game from 1994, as Canada and Sweden face off in one of the most memorable games in international history.

Oh yeah, we’re doing this in Swedish. I probably should have mentioned that up front. Or not mentioned it at all, and just let you go through the whole clip thinking you were having a stroke.

But yeah, this is the clip from the Swedish broadcast, because everything sounds better in Swedish. Don’t worry, though, I’m sure the announcers will be professional and stay impartial.

Our clip begins with about two minutes left in regulation. Everyone knows this game for the shootout, but not many remember that Canada had scored twice in the third period to take a 2-1 lead and were less than two minutes away from winning gold. Poor Derek Mayer. He scored the second Canadian goal that would have been the winner if the lead had held. Mayer was two minutes from being a national hero. Instead he’s the guy who played 17 games for the expansion Senators. This sport can be cruel.

Sweden is on the powerplay because international hockey is always rigged against Canada. Man, those benches are in a weird place. One of those Team Canada players could reach over and grab the Swedish guy as he works the boards. Probably should have, in hindsight.

Sweden ties it on a goal by defenseman Magnus Svensson, which is 100 percent the name you’d come up with if you had to make up a fake Swedish identity for the cops and you panicked. It’s very subtle, but you can pick up a little bit of excitement from our announcers, one of who screams a very aggressive “YEAH.” Or I guess it’s “JA.” Either way, he seems happy.

We cut ahead to the shootout, and it’s Magnus Svensson again. Or maybe it’s not the same guy and most of the Swedish roster was just named “Magnus Svensson.” I kind of hope it’s that. Anyway, he scores on a gorgeous deke, leading to another “JA.”

Wait, a defenseman got to take a turn in the shootout? What kind of Olympic coach would ever let something like that happen?

Next up is Forsberg, although this isn’t the famous shot we all remember. He does score, though, beating Corey Hirsch on a nifty move. It’s so nice that we skip the traditional “JA” and go straight to “OY YO YO YO.” I don’t care what language you speak, that’s a flat-out fun thing to yell. I’m using that in my everyday life.

Next up is Forsberg again, because the Swedes snuck him in for a second shot even though it’s against the rules and they should have to forfeit and Canada retroactively wins gold WHOOO! [checks earpiece] OK I’m being reminded that international hockey allows players to shoot more than once. You win this round, Sweden. Literally, as it turns out.

Forsberg beats Hirsch with the Peter Forsberg Move, which… I mean, how do you not see that coming, am I right?

This is the famous goal that would wind up on a postage stamp. Fun fact: The goalie in that stamp is wearing blue instead of Team Canada red because Hirsch refused to let them use his likeness and threatened to sue. He’s since said that he regrets that, but I always liked it. It’s the equivalent of making your friend delete that embarrassing photo of you looking stupid, except at an international level. I can respect that.

Needless to say, Forsberg’s goal gets an extended OY YO YO YO from our two announcers as we head to the replays. I forgot how close Hirsch was to stopping that. Usually when The Forsberg works, it’s into a wide-open net. But Hirsch is right with it the whole way and gets his glove down in the perfect spot. He’s just a fraction of a second too late. Hockey, man.

That’s it for our clip, which doesn’t show Paul Kariya’s game-ending miss and the subsequent celebration, presumably because our two announcers dove out of the booth to join it. It was Sweden’s first ever gold medal; they’d win another with (mostly) NHL players in 2006. Can they do it again this year? Nobody knows, because we have no idea what to expect from this tournament. But if it’s as entertaining as the 1994 gold medal game, will it be worth watching? I’m going to ahead and say ja.

Have a question, suggestion, old YouTube clip, or anything else you’d like to see included in this column? Email Sean at nhlgrabbag@gmail.com and follow him on Twitter @DownGoesBrown.

DGB Grab Bag: Goodbye Jagr, Hello Whalers, and Brad Marchand, Comedy Star? syndicated from https://australiahoverboards.wordpress.com

[powerranks]

Power Rankings: Week 1 Playoffs Edition

To you esteemed gentlemen who made it this far, I applaud you. We fuckin did it! Time for all the stress, hours of research, agony, and heartbreak to come to fruition. I think we can safely say that the best six teams made it, and I’m glad we locked this up one week in advance. 

I’m gonna do a power rankings of the six playoff teams, then give a little bit of insight into both matchups for the first week of the playoffs.

Bye Week Tier

1. Fournette About It (Jack “holy shit you’re lucky you’re on bye” Cleek) (11-2) 

You probably still would’ve won but WOW you have awful matchups up and down the board this week. I’m not sure what else there is to write about your team at this point. it’s either gonna take injury or ridiculous circumstance to beat you. When Kyle Rudolph is by FAR and away the worst player on your starting lineup, things can’t be going bad. It’ll be interesting to see who you end up playing next week, because it totally flips and you have incredible matchups.

2. Scott’s Balls (Anthony “Marvin Jones can put up 35+ in the title game against me, he still sucks and isn’t fantasy relevant” Mendola) (11-2)

I took a look at your past few weeks, your players have been remarkably consistent at scoring touchdowns. You’ve had three non passing touchdowns every week going back to week 8. My only concern with your team is that you finally get a week in which you don’t get those additional 18+ points. Everyone’s had a no touchdown week, is it regression to the mean time for you?

Aside from that I think you have favorable week 15 matchups and while you’re clearly the second best team, you’re closer to Jack than most people give you credit for. I’d almost rather play Jack because your ceiling is higher because of the touchdowns.

The Legitimate Contenders Tier

3. Perriman4MVP (Alex “you’re literally only alive because of the Scott trade and I’m still SO upset and now the scott trade is directly fucking me in the playoffs” Ahn) (8-5)

I’ve been low on your team for quite some time but it’s been a sustained run of good scores for you and I can’t keep sleeping on you. I still legitimately believe some of the Ravens stuff is ridiculous and unsustainable, but it’s gotten you here and you come into the playoffs off of your highest week all year. You’re in a good spot, you have decent matchups, and now you have Mike Evans, who has been disappointing but presents massive upside against a decent matchup. Good luck this week buddy.

4. Green Evans and Kam (Beshoy “you and alex made me have to refuckin write this because of your trade you stupid assholes” Halim) (7-6) 

Last minute trade!!! A win now move by Beshoy bumps you up to here. As much as it pains me to say that Alfred Morris was the one bullet you got for AARON CHARLES RODGERS and MIKE EVANS, it was a legitimate move since you weren’t starting either anyways. (This is one of those trades we’re going to look back on with zero context and laugh at like we did in Anthony’s the other day btw) I’m terrified of Mike Evans, but there’s no denying that he’s been disappointing. I think this hurts you going forward, but for this particular week it helps you beat Alec. Kamara getting hurt was the worst case scenario, but you can spin it and look at it in the sense that Kamara at least got you three, and Lutz had a bad game. Kamara needs you this week Beshoy, step your game up and fucking do it for him.

5. Mixon It Up (Alec “sneakily, GM of the year” Bernstein) (7-6)

I’ve bumped you down a bit this week because Mixon was just starting to get consistent and I’d feel a lot better about flexing him and not having to start one of the three receivers you’re throwing out there. I’m also bumping you down a little bit because a 97 point floor is cool in the regular season, but it isn’t beating ANYONE’s good day. I still think you might tortoise your way into a ring, but the playoffs are where low scoring teams get exposed. Speaking of low scoring teams...

The I’m Just Happy To Be Here Tier

6. Scott’s Penis (David “tank hard for bernard” Chinchilla) (6-7)

It’s not a reverse jynx I swear, in fact I think I have a decent chance of beating Alex. However my team is trash, scored less than 90 points a week this year and just happened to pick up some timely wins. I’m heading into playoffs on a two game hot streak but it’s been on the back of defensive touchdowns (fluky, can’t depend on them) and Keenan Allen going absolutely buckwild. I think a first round exit is likely, but if I make the second round I’ll be getting SPANKED by the bye week bois. I’m just here for the ride and hope I get hot like 2013 Flacco baby

MATCHUPS

Okay so how this will work: I’ll write up something brief about your QB’s, something briefer about your skill guys, and something even briefer about your defense/kicker with my personal projections for each individual player. At the end, I’ll have a prediction based on my own projections. 

Perriman4MVP Vs. Scott’s Penis

QB Analysis:

David: Alex Smith Vs. Oakland

Let’s face it, Oakland is fucking trash at playing defense, but somehow fantasy QB’s haven’t done a whole hell of a lot of damage against them. I can’t really point my finger as to why, especially since they only have one interception all year and it was off a fluke deflection against Paxton Lynch. Matt Nagy took over play calling duties for the Chiefs last game and they nutted creamy baby juice all over the above average Jets D, so there’s no reason for Smith to not have a good game right? Wrong. Against the Giants (the actual best possible QB matchup) in week 11, Smith put up a total dud. I’m tempering expectations while knowing the upside is there. Projected Points: 18.8

Alex: Jimmy Garoppolo Vs. Houston

Would you look at that, the Niners look like they got a good QB. Garoppolo looked really impressive against an above average Bears D and should only improve and get more comfortable with Kyle Shanahan’s offense. Houston can’t defend the pass at all, but the only thing making me think Jimmy might not have a good game is the fact that his weapons are so limited. I’d love to see what this offense would’ve looked like with Garcon out there, because as cool as Marquis Goodwin might be, he’s the talent equivalent of Taylor Gabriel. Aldrick Robinson and Louis Murphy aren’t likely going to be making huge plays for him out there. I think he has a good game, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the lack of consistent weapons makes it tough for him. Projected Points: 16.3

RB Analysis:

David: McCoy vs. Indy /Hyde @ Hou/ Nard Dog Vs. Chi

McCoy: The Bills just keep finding ways to fuck me. First it was the Benjamin trade, and now it’s starting Nathan Fucking Peterman to turn an amazing Shady matchup into just a decent one against a stacked box. Indy sucks anal beads on defense, so Shady could still break off a few runs but I was HYPED for this before they announced Peterman. Proj: 11.4

Hyde: Houston’s a tougher run defense than I think anyone gives them credit for, and Breida’s role increases by the week, so I really think Hyde has a down week this week. I just can’t sit the guy’s guaranteed 20 touches. Proj: 7.5

Nard Dog: Bernard looked really good after Mixon left last week with a concussion, and with no other healthy RB on the roster, his role should expand greatly this week. Chicago is TOUGH against the run, but his receiving ability should give him a nice floor. Proj: 10.8

Alex: Murray @ CAR / Collins @ PIT

Murray: First real tough run defense since Murray took over a starring role in the Vikings backfield. We’ll see if he can keep it up against Luke Kuechly & crew, but the floor is going to be SO nice with the amount of touches he gets and the goal line work. Proj: 9.5

Collins: Obviously nobody ever wants to see a player get hurt and I know this isn’t something to be happy about, but Shazier being out really makes this matchup a lot better for Collins. This rivalry game is always super ugly, but I think Collins manages to get out of there with a TD. Proj: 10.1

WR Analysis:

David: Gordon Vs. GB / Allen Vs. Was

Gordon: If I win, it will most likely be because Gordon had a good game against Packers defense that High School Me could’ve had 100 yards against. If Kizer doesn’t get my guy the ball, he should face the electric chair. Proj: 14

Allen: I’m forever indebted to this dude for carrying my ass here. I even feel bad for throwing him into trade packages that involved me getting like Stefon Diggs back as the main piece. Ugh. Allen does most of his work in the slot, making me think Josh Norman won’t be on him 100 percent of the time. Hopefully he keeps up even 50% of what he’s been the past few weeks. Proj: 13

Alex: Tyreek @ OAK / M. Thomas @ ATL / M. Evans Vs. Det

Tyreek: Terrified. Honestly terrified. Oakland has nobody who can run with him and Alex Smith just heaves it to him a few times a game. Think he has a second consecutive big game. Proj: 16

Thomas: Honestly looked incredible against Atlanta. Made huge contested catches and really showed what he could’ve been if the Saints didn’t turn into a ground and pound offense. Got 17.7

Evans: The wild card. I’ll be honest, I’d rather have played Morris personally because Darius Slay has murdered #1 wideouts (only Jalen Ramsey, Aqib Talib & Jimmy Smith have been better) but he’s still Mike god damn Evans. Wouldn’t be surprised to at least see him have a decent game, but I think he continues his mediocre streak. Proj: 6.5

TE Analysis:

David: Brate Vs. Det

Don’t feel good about starting him. Incredibly TD dependent, but Detroit is 31st in DVOA against tight ends, Jameis LOVES him in the RZ, and Jameis doesn’t seem to look OJ Howard’s way as much as Fitz did. Proj: 9.1

Alex: Kelce Vs. Oak

#1 Tight end Vs. a team that can’t defend them and a new coordinator who will get him the ball down the field more often. Can’t be more scared. Proj: 13.5

K/Def Analysis

David: Zuerlein Vs. Phi / NE @ MIA

Zuerlein: Truly has been like having a second QB on my team. I might love him more than Keenan Allen. However, his only bad games came against teams with good defenses, and Philly is definitely a good defense. I’d be an idiot to not start the dude, but I could easily see the Rams end up with 21 points and him not kick any non PATs. Proj: 8

Patriots: Patriots always have trouble @ Miami, but how can I pass up the chance to start a defense against Jay Cutler? I’ve started a defense against Miami for three straight weeks now with wild success rates and I feel pretty good about this one too. Proj: 12

Alex: Tucker @ Pit / Ravens @ Pit

Tucker: Heinz is historically a difficult place to kick, but Tucker is a fucking G and should thrive anyways in a game that should be low scoring. Wouldn’t be surprised if he had three attempts over 50 yards. Proj: 12

Ravens: Losing Jimmy Smith the week you play AB isn’t good, but the Steelers won’t have JuJu. Could totally go either way, again usually this game is low scoring but the Steelers have way too much offensive talent for me to think the Ravens have a massive defensive game. Proj: 8

Final Prediction: 

David 104.6 - Alex 109.6

Mixon It Up Vs. Green Evans and Kam

QB Analysis

Beshoy: Philip Rivers Vs. WAS

The mastermind behind a passing game that’s trending ALL the way up, Rivers should stay hot against a middle of the road Redskins D. I think the Chargers have finally realized that Hunter Henry and Keenan Allen should get the majority of the targets and things will work themselves out. The only thing that worries me is that Rivers is a gunslinger and it’s been three weeks without an interception for the guy and that’s unlike him. Washington isn’t the defense to force him into a bad game, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he threw one this week. Despite that, I’d start the guy with total confidence. Proj: 20.3

Alec: Russell Wilson @ JAX

#1 Fantasy QB against the #1 Defense in the league. Should be interesting. Wilson has been out of his mind this year, but it’s gonna be really really hard for him to mask his line’s deficiencies against a defense that’s so fucking stacked. My projection is still going to be absurdly high considering who he’s playing, but I’m sure he’ll pull some Russ shit out of his ass and drop 24 somehow. Proj: 21

RB Analysis

Beshoy: Gordon Vs. WAS / Kamara @ ATL / Morris @ NYG

Gordon: Ekeler is clearly better than this dude, it’s honestly a Ingram/Kamara or Hyde/Breida situation. The only thing keeping Gordon afloat is guaranteed touches, and I like his goal line chances against a middle of the road Redskins D. Proj: 11.5

Kamara: I feel terrible for the dude and you by association. Such a bummer but you have no choice but to go make it up. Got 2.7

Morris: Amazing matchup, gave up a king’s ransom for him, needs to do well. Only concern is that the Cowboys have run so hot and hold, divisional games are always a concern, and the Giants may play with the interim coach boost... Proj 13 

Alec: L. Miller Vs. SF / Burkhead @ MIA

Miller: Ultra consistent, almost boringly consistent and hasn’t slowed down since the Watson injury. He hasn’t been able to super exploit some good matchups so I doubt he goes off here either. Proj: 9.7

Burkhead: It’s unbelievable how the Patriots seem to only let the white dudes get the touchdowns. Lewis does literally all of the work for Burkhead to come in and score. Miami is a good matchup for him, I think he continues to have good games. Proj: 14

WR Analysis

Beshoy: A. Green Vs. Chi / Hopkins Vs. SF

Green: Has been excellent since you got him. Scoring a lot recently and the Bears are a better run D than they are a pass D. Think he has a huge game for you. Proj: 16

Hopkins: Target monster. The Lamar Miller of WR’s because of that target share. Should keep on keeping on his usual 12 even against a decent SF pass defense. Proj: 12.5

Alec: Thielen @ CAR / D. Adams @ CLE / M. Lee Vs. SEA

Thielen: One of, if not THE feel good story of the season at the WR spot. Has fallen off a bit recently because of some tough matchups and I think the downward slide continues for another week. Carolina isn’t a phenomenal pass D, but Keenum has been a better IRL QB than he’s been a fantasy QB recently, and Thielen’s numbers have fallen a bit because of it. Proj: 8.8

Adams: Hundley’s #1. Fell off last week amid a dreadful offensive performance against a bad defense. Hundley seems to trade off horrible games with ones that are passable for his receivers numbers-wise. Should have a bounceback game but I’m not expecting anything crazy, even against Cleveland. Proj: 8.9

M. Lee: My personal random dude who I think is going to do really well this weekend. Seattle has no corners left and Bortles has low key been okay the past three weeks. Would not surprise me at all to see 100 yards and a touchdown. Proj: 13

TE Analysis

Beshoy: Henngod Vs. WAS

He’s two years into his career and I honestly think he’s gonna be one of my favorite players for the next decade. So fun to watch and he clearly already has a really good rapport with Rivers. The second half of this season has seemed to officially be the passing of the torch from Gates and I think he gets his usual 8-9 targets. Proj: 8.5

Alec: Graham @ JAX

Russell loves him in the red zone, and for good reason. The dude is huge and can box anyone out. This week he has a really tough matchup and he does kind of seem to get taken out of games by teams who can match his physicality and I could see that happening. I think his TD streak might end this week but you never know. Proj: 10.5

K/DEF Analysis

Beshoy: Prater @ TB / JAX Vs. SEA

Prater: Last week was a blip in the radar, dude will be fine. Detroit should move the ball relatively easily against Tampa. Proj: 12

Jags D: They won’t be sacking Wilson too many times, and Wilson takes care of the ball. Horrendous matchup but I wouldn’t sit them, they’ve been un fucking believable this year. Proj: 7

Alec: Lutz @ ATL / Min @ CAR

Lutz: Meh game. Saints O clearly affected by not having Kamara. Got 5

Vikes D: Interesting choice. Carolina runs hot and cold more than any team in the league on offense, you’re just hoping you chose the right side of the coin. It’s a talented unit, but it hasn’t translated into a good fantasy year. Proj: 11

Final Prediction:

Beshoy 103.5 - Alec 101.9

[buddyrabrahams]

15 key questions for NFL Week 13

The Dallas Cowboys got Week 13 started off with a big win over NFC East rival Washington. They broke out of their offensive slump and poured it on with 38 points against Washington to improve to 6-6 and get back in the playoff hunt. Many other teams are on the border looking to stay in the playoff hunt or cement their postseason chances. Can anyone else put together a turnaround in Week 13 the way the Cowboys did? We shall soon find out.

Here are 15 key questions for the NFL Week 13 games.

1. Is this the week the Case Keenum magic runs out?

Keenum was named the NFC Offensive player of the month for November, yet Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer continues to say he is taking his quarterback situation week-to-week. It’s almost as if everyone expects Keenum to fall off at some point — including his own team. This week, Minnesota has a tough road test against a Falcons team that has looked better by the week. Keenum was outstanding in a 30-23 win over the Lions on Thanksgiving, but playing consecutive road games is no easy task. Despite his rock-solid play during the Vikings’ seven-game win streak, it feels like we’re one bad Keenum outing away from seeing Teddy Bridgewater’s 2017 debut.

2. Can the Bengals fight their way into the playoffs?

The Bengals lost their first three games of the season, and it looked like this would finally be the year that Marvin Lewis would lose his job. Since then, the team has gone 5-3 and is somehow still in the hunt for the playoffs. A soft schedule has had a lot to do with that. But things won’t be easy for Cincinnati with a game against the Steelers on Monday, and games remaining against the Vikings, Lions and Ravens.

Still, Andy Dalton and the gang are only one game out of a wild card spot in the AFC. If they can somehow steal a win vs. Pittsburgh, anything can happen down the stretch.

3. Are the Giants really better off without Eli Manning?

Benching Manning likely is more about moving on from a 36-year-old quarterback than trying to see what Geno Smith is made of. Unless the Giants think third-round rookie Davis Webb can be a franchise quarterback, they are almost certainly setting themselves up to tank. With a 2-9 record, New York has as good a chance as anyone to be in position to draft either Sam Darnold or Josh Rosen next year, or whichever top quarterbacks come out.

Smith’s first task will be a tough one on the road against the Raiders. The truth of the matter is the Giants probably won’t be better with Smith under center, and they likely don’t want to be.

4. Do the Raiders have enough playmakers to save their season?

Amari Cooper missed practice on Thursday with a concussion and has been ruled out for Sunday’s game against the Giants. Michael Crabtree will also miss the game because he will be serving a one-game suspension. That leaves a Raiders offense that has been disappointing in 2017 facing a major challenge. Fortunately, Oakland is going up against Geno Smith. This is the perfect week to be missing key players, but the Raiders cannot afford to slip up if they want to remain in the playoff hunt. Derek Carr might have to get creative to put points on the board. Watch out for a big week from Seth Roberts.

5. Will Marcus Mariota’s mistakes doom the Titans?

Many expected Mariota to take a big leap forward in his third NFL season, but that has not happened. While injuries have played a role, Mariota has appeared in all but one game this season and has a passer rating of just 79.1. The Titans have managed to win three of their last four games despite Mariota throwing eight interceptions during that span. On the season, he has 12 interceptions against nine touchdown passes, with the picks being more than he had thrown in either of his first two seasons. The Texans aren’t expected to present a huge challenge at home, but they have an opportunistic defense. If Mariota continues to turn the ball over, bad things are going to happen in Tennessee.

6. Can Carson Wentz keep his hot streak going in Seattle?

Wentz has looked like a legitimate MVP candidate in his second NFL season, but he will face on of his toughest tests to date on Sunday night. While the Seahawks have been inconsistent and have a lot of injuries on the defensive side of the ball, there is no tougher place to play in the NFL than Seattle. Wentz hasn’t thrown an interception in Philly’s last three games, but it will be tough to keep that streak going even without Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor on the field. If the Eagles find a way to win their 10th straight game, there may be nothing that can stand in the way between them and an NFC championship.

7. Which team will seize control of the NFC South?

The Panthers and Saints are squaring off Sunday in a matchup that could very easily determine who wins the NFC South. Both teams are 8-3 and have put together great seasons, though it feels like New Orleans is the better team. Alvin Kamara has emerged as one of the most explosive playmakers in football and has given the Saints a two-headed monster in the backfield with Mark Ingram. Drew Brees is still making the throws he needs to make at age 38, and New Orleans has shown vast improvement on the defensive side of the ball.

While Cam Newton has the ability to take over any game, he may find it tough with tight end Greg Olsen banged up. Carolina is in a tough spot traveling to the Superdome.

8. Will the Seahawks establish themselves as a legitimate title contender?

Just as the Eagles have an opportunity to cement themselves as the best team in the NFC, the Seahawks will have a chance to prove they can still contend for a Super Bowl if they beat Philadelphia at home. Winning these types of games is going to be a major challenge for Seattle without Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor, and you have to wonder how far Russell Wilson can carry the team. No matter what the scenario, the Seahawks are always tough to beat at home. The problem for them could be that they’ll likely have to play on the road in the postseason.

9. What type of impact will Josh Gordon make?

Gordon is ready to make his season debut on Sunday against the Chargers. This will also be his first NFL game action since 2014, so no one really knows what to expect. Toss in the fact that Gordon will be catching passes from rookie quarterback DeShone Kizer, and you could really see the star receiver’s first game back going a number of different ways.

Whatever the case, Gordon’s return should give Browns fans something to be excited for. If he’s anywhere near the caliber of player he was three years ago, he should make life extremely difficult on defensive backs over the last five weeks of the season.

10. Can Matthew Stafford get the best of Baltimore’s elite defense?

The Ravens are 6-5 and in great shape to contend for a playoff spot down the stretch, and that mostly has to do with the level of play they have gotten from their defense. Baltimore ranks second in the NFL behind only the Jaguars with 189.9 passing yards allowed per game, so it goes without saying that Stafford and the Lions will be facing a huge challenge on Sunday. To make matters worse, Stafford suffered a sprained ankle in Detroit’s loss to the Vikings on Thanksgiving, so he may be playing at less than 100 percent.

The Lions, also 6-5, could really use a win if they want to keep pace in the NFC. With the Ravens’ defense consistently locking down opponents and allowing just 17 points per game, Stafford may have to lean heavily on his own defense to come away with a win in Baltimore.

11. How healthy is Jameis Winston?

Bucs head coach Dirk Koetter announced Thursday that Winston will start in Green Bay this weekend. The quarterback injured his shoulder earlier in the season and aggravated it again on Nov. 5 against the Saints, and he has not played since. While Winston suffered no structural damage, he has been in a considerable amount of pain and reportedly underwent platelet-rich plasma therapy in an attempt to heal quicker.

The Bucs are 4-7 and have virtually no shot at making the playoffs, so it wouldn’t make sense for them to push Winston. He must be feeling at or close to 100 percent, but it will be interesting to see if he can make it through a full game without experiencing any discomfort.

12. Should Chiefs fans be hitting the panic button?

The Chiefs tried to get back on track with a home game against the Bills in Week 12, but their offensive struggles continued and they managed just 10 points in the game. After looking like an MVP candidate through the first eight weeks of the season, Alex Smith has been terrible over the past month and can’t seem to stop turning the ball over. If you want to know how frustrated the Chiefs are, look no further than the way Travis Kelce reacted when Smith threw a late-game interception last weekend.

Kansas City has been very fortunate that the AFC West has been so weak this year, but they are suddenly 6-5 after losing five of their last six games. Both the Raiders and Chargers are just a game behind them at 5-6. Los Angeles has looked great the last two weeks and gets a home date with the Browns on Sunday. If the Chiefs can’t take care of the Jets, it may be time to hit the panic button.

13. Does Tyrod Taylor give the Bills a chance against New England?

Despite Sean McDermott’s historically bad decision to start rookie Nathan Peterman two weeks ago, the Bills are 6-5 and very much in the postseason hunt after their impressive road win over the Chiefs in Week 13. They’ll have an even tougher test on Sunday when the Patriots come to town, but Taylor has the ability to create some problems for Bill Belichick’s defense.

While New England’s defense has been vastly improved improved since its laughably bad start, traveling to Buffalo is never easy. The Bills would have to overcome long odds to beat the Patriots, but doing so would practically clinch a playoff spot for them. Motivation won’t be an issue, especially for Taylor in the wake of his Week 11 benching.

14. Would John Elway fire Vance Joseph after one season?

The Broncos really have nothing to salvage for their 2017 season, especially with Paxton Lynch now injured and Trevor Siemian starting again. As such, the biggest storyline to follow in Denver down the stretch could be whether Vance Joseph is coaching for his job.

While it’s rare for an NFL coach to get the axe after just one season, Joseph’s first year in Denver has been a disaster. The Broncos have won just three games and have been horrendous on offense no matter who is under center. As if that weren’t discouraging enough, discipline has also been an issue. Aqib Talib will miss Sunday’s game while he serves a suspension for an ugly fight with Michael Crabtree last week. Poor results on the field are one thing, but Elway won’t hesitate to show Joseph the door if he feels like the coach is losing the locker room.

15. Is help on the way for the Packers?

Aaron Rodgers is less than two months removed from suffering a collarbone injury that reportedly required multiple screws and metal plates to repair, but he is already back to throwing passes. ESPN’s Rob Demovsky witnessed the former MVP throwing a ball 50 yards in the air before Green Bay’s game against the Steelers last week, so Rodgers has to be feeling pretty good.

The 5-6 Packers are two games behind in the NFC wild card race, so they probably need to beat both the Buccaneers at home this weekend and the Browns on the road next week in order to have a shot at making the playoffs. Even with Brett Hundley starting, that doesn’t sound like a very daunting task. Rodgers will be eligible to return from IR in Week 15. If Green Bay is 7-6 and doctors clear the former MVP, Packers fans may have a lot to be excited about.

from Larry Brown Sports http://ift.tt/2kfprBw

[auburnfamilynews]

Joe Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports

What do we really know about non-Auburn football?

We’re already a third of the way through the regular season, and soon it’ll be slipping into November (and the weather will still be hot). Which among us will also be hot? Who knows!

***IF YOU’D LIKE TO ADD YOUR OWN PICKS, COMMENT BELOW WITH YOUR SCORE PREDICTIONS FOR EACH GAME AND RYAN STERRITT WILL TRACK THEM***

Notre Dame (-13) vs Virginia (O/U 48)

Notre Dame is going to take out some frustration on a good(?) Virginia team, but I’m not sure that necessarily means an offensive explosion. Virginia’s offense is baddddd though, so this may be more of a “smother you with a pillow” style win for the Irish. 27-7 Domers. - Ryan Sterritt

Virginia never deserves success in anything ever again, including against Notre Dame, who I think may have won a moral victory last weekend by possibly exposing a coach in Athens who might just have an issue or two with executing at a high level in big games. Notre Dame 27 Virginia 21 - Josh Black

Well Notre Dame, you ALMOST made me look like a genius last week. The Irish come home and face an undefeated Virginia team. The Cavaliers have narrow wins over the likes of Florida State and Old Dominion as they head to South Bend. I think the Irish will bounce back at home Saturday. Notre Dame 28 Virginia 20 - Will McLaughlin

Notre Dame now has something to prove to the world. I don’t think they’ll take the foot off the gas in this one, or any of their remaining games. They need to put themselves back in the conversation. Notre Dame 38, Virginia 14 - Josh Dub

If Notre Dame wins, maybe jack won’t make us pick any more of their stupid games im not going to watch. Our Lady of Embarrassing Irish Losses, pray for us. Hoos 21 Irish 20. - Son of Crow

Notre Dame played MUCH better than I was expecting and I think are a legitimate top 10 team. But how funny would it be if after that big time matchup where UGA had to begrudgingly admit that maybe ND wasn’t such a pushover if they then got beat by UVA? But UVA doesn’t deserve nice things due to their phony bball title. The Fighting Irish bounce back big. ND 35 UVA 17 - AU Nerd

The Golden Domers showed me something last week. They kept it close against Georgia...that is pretty much it. What I got on offense, I expected, but the defense really impressed me. Either that or Georgia had and off night. The Hoos on the other hand have beaten FSU...so they beat a JV squad. I am pretty sure ND will win but that’s a large cover against a good? team on the road. Virginia and the points and the under. ND 23-14 - Drew Mac

Notre Dame had a solid gameplan against Georgia’s offense, but they couldn’t get anything consistent on offense except for going to their TE. I think UVa got caught eating a LetDown Lookahead sandwich last week against Old Dominion. ND does enough to win at home, but I think UVA keeps it close. Irish 24, School for which Ty Jerome double dribbled 17 (ND wins, UVA covers, UNDER) - James Jones

I know there’s nothing connecting the two, but I really hope that Kyle Guy and his long gums/tiny teeth get to enjoy an epic whipping at the hands of Notre Dame. He apparently writes for the UVA SB Nation site, so write about this one, and tell your double dribble buddy Ty Jerome all about it. Irish 35, Cavaliers 10 - Jack Condon

Washington (-9.5) vs USC (O/U 59)

Washington is a lot better team than they’re going to get credit for after that dumb Cal loss, and despite beating Utah last week, I can’t get on board with the third string quarterback leading the Trojans to another win over a ranked team on the road. It’ll be up to the USC ground game to take advantage of a weaker-than-usual Washington defensive line, but I’m going to take the Huskies here. 30-20 UW. - Ryan Sterritt

Jacob Eason wanted a more refined version of a dog. One who wasn’t bred down to sitting on top of ice as “work”. No he realized he needed to associate himself with a breed that was tough, graceful, and reliable. Shoutout to Jacob Eason, for without him, Georgia may never have gotten their hopes up only to be ripped out against Tennessee in 2016. Without him transferring, maybe Justin Fields doesn’t come to Georgia. Without Justin Fields coming to Georgia, maybe Kirby decides to recruit another star quarterback before and during the 2018 season. And because of neglecting to do so, because you know, Justin Fields is a generational talent, Georgia now has no backup quarterback if Jake Fromm were to catch a horrible case of diarrhea. Also Washington is much better than USC and should win this game. Washington 38 USC 28 - Josh Black

Both of these teams played in Provo against BYU the last 2 weekends. The Huskies rolled while the Trojans lost in Overtime. I think Washington would be undefeated if it weren’t the bizarreness of Pac-12 WAYYYYY After Dark against Cal. I like the Huskies in this one. Washington 31 USC 23 - Will McLaughlin

The PAC-12 is a mystery. Chris Peterson is reliable, though. Well, more reliable than anyone else over there. Washington 42, USC 21 - Josh Dub

Guys I think USC might have it figured out, or at least well enough for the lousy pac 12. That said, Washington is looking better than the Trojans by a wide margin and the dream of Dwag transfers making the playoffs without the Dwags hinges on this game. Washington 35 SC 24 - Son of Crow

It would be a very on brand thing for the PAC-12 if USC were to win this game. They’ve performed better than anyone thought especially given injuries at QB position. But the Huskies first loss came under some wild circumstances so unless the Trojans can get some weather delays I think Eason and company get it done. Huskies 31 Trojans 23 - AU Nerd

Now this is an interesting matchup, and sadly it won’t be on Pac-12 After Dark. Both teams are 3-1 and coming off of nice road wins last week. USC is much better than people want to give them credit for while Washington always seems to have one or two ‘huh’ losses in them. They already got one out of the way a few weeks back to Cal and they play Stanford next week on Pac-12 After Dark. There’s your other loss so they win this one but won’t cover. USC and the points, take the under. Washington 27-21 - Drew Mac

Graham Harrell deserves a lot of credit for keeping the offensive game plan the same with Fink after Slovis went down. What I don’t like is a QB that made some really poor decisions in the second half making his first road start. Washington will be ready for this one. I think you almost have to throw the Cal game completely out for betting purposes. There were so many obstacles in that game that I’m not taking it into account. I think Eason is coming into his own. I may have to create a vested interest in this one. Washington 38, USC 17 (UW covers, UNDER) - James Jones

It’s fun when national powers turn back into pedestrian clubs. People would have killed to see USC end up as a struggling mid-level program a decade ago, and most never thought the Trojans would fall to that point. People now think that Bama won’t ever drop to mediocrity again. It’ll happen. USC, however, is on the way back up, and I don’t have anything to base this on except that I don’t really think Washington is all that tough. Trojans 33, Washington 30 - Jack Condon

Nebraska vs Ohio State (-17.5) (O/U 66.5)

Let’s see... Nebraska struggled with USA, lost to Colorado, and barely beat Illinois despite nearly doubling them up in yards. Meanwhile, Ohio State has been murdering bad teams by an average of 54-9. Nebraska will be the best team the Buckeyes will have faced, and it *might* be the first time the starters play the fourth quarter. Buckeyes 48-20. - Ryan Sterritt

Justin Fields just wanted to be at a program that’s won a national title in the past 38 years. Shoutout to Justin Fields. No shame in wanting to be involved with a winner who knows how to finish. You know what’s impressed me most about Ohio State? They’ve managed to find ways to use Justin Fields to their advantage beyond fake punts. I mean, that’s really hard to do. Finding a role for a guy who was considered neck and neck with Trevor Lawrence for the best HS QB in a decade by doing more than running out with the punt team is really a testament to the creativity of the Ohio State coaching staff. Ohio State 48 Nebraska 17 - Josh Black

All you need to know about how bleh this weekend of games is that College Gameday picked THIS game to go to this week. Buckeyes roll. Ohio State 48 Nebraska 14 - Will McLaughlin

Ohio State cruises towards a big October 26 matchup against Wisconsin. (related – the gameday slate of Ohio State/Wisconsin at 11 AM followed by Auburn/LSU at 2:30 may have some serious playoff implications). Ohio State 52, Nebraska 17 - Josh Dub

I don’t think Ohio state feels a speed bump during this game. The Buckeye offense is dynamic and Justin Fields is a generational talent who was called racial slurs by Georgia fans. While he was on their team. Because Georgia. During this game look for there to be more shots of Scott Frost looking completely lost than shots of Nebraska celebrating first downs. Bucks 48 N 20 - Son of Crow

You know who I think is the scariest team in the country right now? It’s not Dabo’s Tigers, it’s not Ed O’s Tigers, it’s not Saban’s high flying offense, it’s not UGA’s boring ass team & it’s not Hurts’ led Oklahoma. It’s the Buckeyes of Ohio State. Justin Fields was a legitimate challenger for the top spot in the same class as Trevor Lawrence. The fact he decided to go to UGA is still one of the more bizarre decisions I’ve seen but now he’s at a program that will make full use of his skillset. This team also has a ferocious defense lead by arguably the best pass rusher in the country. They are flying under the radar right now due to an unimpressive schedule and the jaw dropping offensive numbers Bama, LSU & OK are putting up right now. But for my pretend expert opinion, Buckeyes are the team to be feared the most right now. There may be some hiccups early but OSU rolls. OSU 45 NEB 20 - AU Nerd

One of my favorite, personal things is to watch Nebraska and wonder when the realization that the Scott Frost system isn’t going to work at Nebraska and then the second realization that they are just an average program in today’s college football will truly set in. It obviously hasn’t yet but I think Ohio State will do all they can to bash them over the head with it this week as they welcome the Huskers to the Shoe. Ohio State and the over. OSU 52-17 - Drew Mac

Ohio State has been in the old “Bama minus anything” zone so far this year. Which of course means that I’m finally looking at making an investment in them, and therefore they’ll struggle with the Huskers. Nebraska rolled up a ton of yards on Illinois last week, but they made too many mistakes. I’m wary of the yearly “Ohio State craps its pants on the road on national TV” game, but I don’t think it’s this week. Ohio State 45, Nebraska 21 (OSU covers, UNDER by the hook) - James Jones

Ever since Scott Frost shot that kid in Breaking Bad, he’s had it coming. Justin Fields is about to Jesse Pinkman this dude and roll up about 400 yards and 5 touchdowns. Buckeyes 40, Huskers 17 - Jack Condon

South Carolina (-2.5) vs Kentucky (O/U 50.5)

Do we have an Anxiety Bowl here? If the Gamecocks drop this one, they’ll fall to 1-4, and will be lucky to get to 3-9 after that. Muschamp is gone in that scenario. Meanwhile, if the underdog Wildcats lose, Mark Stoops will have lost all good will from last season as Kentucky will be sitting at 2-3. Luckily, Kentucky still has likely wins over Arkansas, Tennessee, Vandy, UT Martin, and Louisville on the schedule, but losing to South Carolina would not be a good sign that Kentucky could handle those other games without faltering either. I don’t know, I guess I’m picking Kentucky? No way they hit that over. 23-15 blue team. - Ryan Sterritt

Neither one of these programs have much in the way of success in football historically. Take South Carolina for example. The last major thing South Carolina did was produce a Heisman Trophy winner in 1980. NINETEEN EIGHTY! That was THIRTY-NINE years ago. Most of you reading this probably weren’t even alive back in those days! How could any program that had their last major national success happen during the waning days of the Carter administration ever take themselves seriously? Can’t relate, but man that must be tough. 1980. 39 years ago. And maybe, just maybe, the best a program residing in the SEC East may have just peaked in 1980. You hate to see it. Kentucky 21 South Carolina 20 - Josh Black

I’m not really sure what to think of this game. It looks like Sawyer Smith will play for Kentucky and the Gamecocks have GOT to win this game or things could get really ugly. I don’t trust picking South Carolina since they screwed me in the Survivor Pool Week 1 so give the Wildcats! Kentucky 24 South Carolina 21 - Will McLaughlin

Talk about two schools needing a win. Both of these programs are desperate for some kind of success right about now. South Carolina and Will Muschamp are sitting at 1-3 and folks, the future does not look bright. They need a win or two to help justify a crazy buyout situation for Muschamp. I’m looking at their schedule…welp, Will Muschamp is going to get retained after going 2-10 because they don’t want to fork out $22 Million. Meanwhile, Kentucky nearly beats Florida then gets destroyed by Mississippi State? I think Kentucky is the only one of these programs that can put together a winning gameplan. Kentucky 28, South Carolina 17 - Josh Dub

I need Kentucky to win and I’ll tell you why: we need SCAR to look so bad that no one could possibly think they could upset one of the better teams left on their schedule. That’s when muschamp strikes and keeps his crummy job. This game is going to stink. Kentucky 21 Scar 13 - Son of Crow

The desperation bowl. Both of these programs needs this win in the worst way. Both are dealing with injuries at the QB position. I honestly thought the Kats would put up a bigger fight on the road against State. SCAR was pretty sad themselves in Columbia, MO. Winner of this game might be able to get off the mat and have an ok season with the terribleness of the East. Loser is fighting for bowl eligibility. Think it’s an ugly one but with it being at home the Cocks’ freshman QB does enough. Muschamp 23 UK 16 - AU Nerd

Woof. I went out on a limb for you last week Kentucky and you give me nothing! Frustrating. Oh well. Now the TurfCats return home to take on a reeling Carolina team in the battle of the second string QBs. No true breakdown here as this will not be a pretty ballgame but since the Cats are at home, as I guess they will be the least loser. Kentucky on the ML and the under. Cats 24-20 - Drew Mac

Gross. If Kentucky was at home, they’d be a no-brainer. To be honest, having the line here means Vegas thinks it’s a toss-up on a neutral field. I don’t know that I agree with that. I think Helinski plays well enough to keep SC in it, but I’m going to lean towards UK getting it done. Holding my nose either way. Gambling wise this is a total stay-away. Kentucky 24, South Carolina 21 (Kentucky wins outright, UNDER) - James Jones

FEEL OLD YET? pic.twitter.com/KIenYSLTte

— Karen Howell (@karenehowell) September 27, 2019

Muschamp’s gonna have plenty of time to open up the budding singing career when he ends up getting canned after this season. Boom will be Summertime Lover when he gets to chill on his boat for a season. Then he’ll return to Auburn for round three running the defense once Kevin Steele finally retires. Kentucky 23, Gamecocks 21 - Jack Condon

from College and Magnolia - All Posts https://www.collegeandmagnolia.com/2019/9/27/20886401/staff-picks-college-football-week-5

[flauntpage]

Roger Goodell is Once Again Full of Shit

Fresh off the recent shitshow of bad calls and no calls impacting the conference championship games a week and a half ago—which the NFL has never officially addressed outside of fining Rams cornerback Nickell Robey-Coleman for his hit and responding to a New Orleans Saints fan's lawsuit—Roger Goodell stood before the media on Wednesday to serve his ultimate purpose: as flak jacket for 32 billionaires.

After sidestepping questions about the controversial pass-interference-that-(apparently)-wasn't, Goodell was asked about the continued absence of Colin Kaepernick from any NFL roster. Goodell, once again, trotted out some meritocratic fantasy as the real reason Kaepernick's number hasn't been called and because, you know, teams have collectively decided they would literally have five-interceptions-in-a-half Nathan Peterman before even thinking of a guy who brought Jim Harbaugh to the Super Bowl.

"I’ve said it many times privately, publicly that our clubs are the ones that make decisions on players that they want to have on their roster," Goodell said at a press conference in Atlanta, the site of Sunday's Super Bowl.

"I think if a team decides that Colin Kaepernick or any other player can help their team win, that’s what they’ll do," he added. "They want to win, and they make those decisions individually in best interest of their club."

This is the classic sports response that everyone wants to believe is true—especially with a gladiator sport like football—but is belied by everything the NFL does.

For this to be true, we are to believe that the Buffalo Bills looked at Peterman and Kaepernick and objectively determined that Peterman would net them more wins.

Similarly, the Arizona Cardinals had to have looked at Sam Bradford, who has averaged just 9 starts in a career that spanned 9 years (including a season lost to an ACL injury)—and still managed to throw 61 interceptions—and thought he'd be a better option than Kaepernick.

(The Cardinals cut Bradford less than two months into the season and will be selecting first in April's draft.)

And we haven't even gotten to Blaine Gabbert. Blaine Gabbert! Blaine! Motherfucking! Gabbert! The Tennessee Titans, under Goodell's logic, literally thought Blaine Gabbert would help their team more than Colin Kaepernick.

Washington! Oh my god, Washington. Due to injuries, they brought in MARK SANCHEZ in the middle of a playoff push as a starter rather than Kaepernick. They then went ahead and signed Josh Johnson—a man who had not thrown a pass since 2011 and who backed up, you guessed it, Colin Kaepernick in San Francisco where they ran a West Coast offense, just like Washington—instead of Kaep.

I could go on and on, or you could read on and on about more quarterbacks who made it onto NFL rosters this year right here—but you get the point. It's all bullshit.

There is no way Roger Goodell or anyone else can credibly say that he or she looked at two quarterbacks, one of whom was Colin Kaepernick, and objectively determined that the other guy would help more than Kaepernick. And do you know why? Because Kaepernick hasn't even gotten a phone call, let alone a tryout from a team.

Roger Goodell's statements today imply that 32 organizations decided the two, or three, quarterbacks on their rosters would help the team more than Colin Kaepernick without ever bringing him in and watching him try to run their offense.

The rest—that he's been blackballed for having the nerve to speak out against institutional oppression and systemic racism at a time when it is so plain to see, that at best teams are scared of the backlash they believe he might bring from their racist fan bases, and that everyone in Washington should be fired from their positions and kicked out of the NFL for life if they legitimately thought those two guys were better options than Kaepernick—is messy but almost certainly true (that last part definitely is).

So if you don't have the stomach to ponder the hard truths of today—you really should, though—there's a cleaner route you can take. Evaluate the differences between what people say, and what they do, and please stop letting billionaires bullshit you.

Roger Goodell is Once Again Full of Shit published first on https://footballhighlightseurope.tumblr.com/

[leehaws]

The Outlet Pass: The Draymond Green Trade Machine Edition

So, What is Draymond Green’s Trade Value?

In the aftermath of a verbal dispute between Kevin Durant and Draymond Green that still may turn into something more and has already yielded one suspension while puncturing Golden State’s aura of invincibility, all eyes are on Durant’s free agency. Is this the pivotable moment that will push him out the door, onward to New York City or Los Angeles or whichever city will next be blessed by his inextinguishable knack for introducing a basketball to the inside of a rim?

Speculation in this case is a tad premature, but the stakes are high enough to allow it. (A dynasty hangs in the balance!) Even though we haven’t reached Thanksgiving, it always felt like Golden State needed to have a hand in its own demise; they’re too talented to be done in by a superior opponent. There’s still time for cooler heads to prevail—Steph Curry’s health-related on-court absence from the equation shouldn’t go unnoticed—but the entire situation allows another question to creep into the periphery: What is Draymond’s trade value?

This isn’t to say Golden State should or will trade the perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate just to appease the unappeasable Durant. But it’s worth wondering what they could get, or would even want, in return. And outside the Bay Area’s cushy confines, where he’s ascended alongside the two greatest shooters who ever lived, what would Draymond even look in another team’s jersey?

Green will make $17.4 million this year and $18.5 million in 2019-20 before he becomes a 30-year-old unrestricted free agent. He never was a traditional All-Star, someone who can roll out of bed every morning with 20 points in their back pocket. Green’s value is instead very real and very specific to everything that makes Golden State so free and spacious. It’s not fair to ask if the Detroit Pistons would be better with Green instead of Blake Griffin, but the answer to that question is “no,” even though most league observers probably think Draymond’s overall on-court impact is more beneficial.

Even though he’s a three-time All-Star in his prime with nearly two years left on his deal, Green couldn’t fetch what the Cleveland Cavaliers received for Kyrie Irving or the Chicago Bulls got for Jimmy Butler. A lottery pick feels out of the question. But how do you weigh a key ingredient for the greatest team ever beside the temper that may be responsible for said team’s downfall? He’s one of four players averaging at least seven points, seven assists, and seven rebounds right now (the other three are Russell Westbrook, Ben Simmons, and LeBron James), but is also shooting 24 percent from deep with the fourth-worst turnover rate in the league.

Every dynasty that intends to stay on top must eventually alter its fundamental makeup on the fly. Having signed Durant, the Warriors (and Green!) know this better than anyone else. But their decision to publicly embarrass a franchise icon the way they did could reverberate in a way they couldn’t see, despite existing light years ahead of the competition.

What if Durant, suddenly emboldened by the call to reprimand Draymond, tells Bob Myers that he doesn’t want to leave. That he’s willing to re-sign long-term so long as Green is gone. And when does Green’s next contract complicate matters to the point where the fear of losing him for nothing/locking him up on an expensive, untradeable deal becomes too much? What are some hypothetical trades that make sense? Do they exist? I’m honestly not sure. Most teams that are in the time of their life cycle to have interest in Green can’t give the Warriors what they’d want in return, or have the type of salaries on their books to make it work (i.e. the Denver Nuggets, New Orleans Pelicans, Washington Wizards, Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs, Los Angeles Lakers, and Houston Rockets).

But here are a few that, while flawed (repeat: these are flawed and mostly unrealistic because Draymond’s monetary value and skill-set are not easy to trade!) are fun enough to wonder about:

Portland Trail Blazers get: Draymond Green

Golden State Warriors get: Zach Collins, Al-Farouq Aminu, and Moe Harkless

How much more enjoyable will the NBA playoffs be if this trade happens? Golden State (possibly) sustains its standing in the short-term while looking towards the future with a cost-controlled blue chipper who can pass, shoot, and protect the basket. Portland ostensibly lands the missing piece it needs to make a legitimate playoff run without breaking up its backcourt duo.

Miami Heat get: Draymond Green

Golden State Warriors get: Kelly Olynyk and Justise Winslow

There’s no logical rationale behind this trade. I just want to see Draymond mixed with Heat culture.

Sacramento Kings get: Draymond Green

Golden State Warriors get: Marvin Bagley III, Bogdan Bogdanovic

Obviously terrible for Sacramento but this organization feels due for an obviously terrible move. Bagley III may not ever be good, but it’s so rare for a team as great as the Warriors to add a prospect with that much potential. It makes them significantly worse for the rest of this season, but would it cost them the title? At the very least, Golden State could turn around and use Bagley III as a trade chip to add more immediate help.

Brooklyn Nets gets: Draymond Green

Golden State Warriors get: Spencer Dinwiddie and DeMarre Carroll

For an organization that may not want to sit around and test free agency, this is one way to spice up their relevance while selling high on a talented guard whose skill-set overlaps with D’Angelo Russell and Caris LeVert. LeVert’s injury stalled Brooklyn’s metamorphosis into a frisky playoff team this season, but next year, with LeVert, Green, Jarrett Allen, and a lottery pick? They wouldn’t be bad!

Utah Jazz get: Draymond Green

Golden State Warriors get: Jae Crowder, Grayson Allen, and Thabo Sefolosha

A decent rookie plus a serviceable small-ball four plus a veteran who doesn’t really play anymore? That sounds like a reasonable package. Of course, sending Green to a team that has Golden State in its crosshairs probably isn’t realistic. (That goes for Portland, too.) Either way, just imagine a frontcourt that pairs the last two Defensive Players of the Year, while solving Utah’s long-standing issue that is Gobert at the five in crunchtime of a critical playoff game. The Jazz slice into their cap space and shouldn’t feel confident about retaining Green once he hits unrestricted free agency in 2020, but until then they would be the league’s most intriguing title contender. The Warriors save money and get better (?) on offense.

Tom Thibodeau: Stranger in a Strange Land

Say what you will about Jimmy Butler’s behavior, multiple generations of corrosive dysfunction, and every other obstacle Tom Thibodeau has faced since he became President of Basketball Operations for the Minnesota Timberwolves—some of which was clearly self-constructed—but the team’s putrid defense is impossible to ignore.

The Timberwolves have the worst defense in the NBA, and are surrendering about four more points per 100 possessions than they did four years ago, when…they finished with the worst defense in the NBA. Teams are brutalizing Minnesota on the offensive glass and taking total advantage of their non-existent hustle back in transition. Their only five-man unit that’s played major minutes and come close to yielding dignified results was Butler + The Bench, and that group no longer exists.

Not all the blame can rest on Thibodeau—Karl-Anthony Towns is still at his best chasing shots to block and, as ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski pointed out on a recent podcast, Andrew Wiggins doesn’t appear to enjoy playing basketball—but the team has yet to resemble one that knows how to defend uncomplicated NBA offense.

What exactly is Derrick Rose doing here? Does he think he should switch onto Iman Shumpert? Does he see Kosta Koufous through the corner of his eye and anticipate having to guard a high pick-and-roll? For whatever reason, Rose being this far from where he should against a speed demon like De’Aaron Fox is instant death. Plays like it aren’t uncommon.

They’re allowing 1.13 points per possession after a made shot while opponents gallop by at the third-fastest tempo in the league, per Inpredictable. They make no effort to match up and hardly ever sprint back. The play below came seconds after a Towns dunk, and they can’t even use poor floor balance as an excuse! It’s not new for the Thibs Timberwolves, but it’s still disturbing.

He entered this job as a revolutionary defensive tactician, someone whose militaristic instructions could squeeze water from a brick. But how does a league that’s never been more open about its desire to make life easy for offenses impact Thibodeau’s stock if/when he loses his job? Can he build a top-notch defense in today’s NBA, which looks much different from what it was when he was Doc Rivers’s assistant in Boston or head coach of the Chicago Bulls? Or did poor personnel decisions spell out his own doom?

Philly Helps Ben Simmons by Getting the Ball Out of His Hands

Ben Simmons is 22 years old and—according to some smart people, including his own general manager—one of the world’s 20 best players. He’s already won Rookie of the Year, one playoff series, and only Russell Westbrook and LeBron James have more triple-doubles since his career debut. If he doesn’t go down as one of the 10 best passers his size (6’10”, for those unaware) who ever lived it’ll be a wild disappointment.

He’ll always be a unique mismatch who terrorizes defenses caught between stopping his momentum and realizing the moment they do he’s going to fling a dart out to the three-point line, or put one of his teammates in a hot-air balloon to cram home a lob. On defense, Simmons’s height and build allow the Philadelphia 76ers to stick him on opposing centers (Al Horford, Myles Turner, etc.) when they need to hide Joel Embiid on someone who isn’t as threatening in the pick and roll. He’s very good and special and the 76ers should feel blessed to have him on their team.

But if last year was a hazily appealing honeymoon, the earliest returns on Simmons’s sophomore season have sometimes felt like the first valley in a marriage that’s yet to experience any conflict; an unsettling realization that the notable hitches in his game won’t improve anytime soon—he and Philly are officially in this through good times and bad. Regardless of how physically imposing, rare, and breathtaking Simmons can be, building a championship contender with someone who can’t shoot as a focal point is exceptionally difficult. It helped spur Saturday’s blockbuster trade for Jimmy Butler and, regardless of what the team says, has made Markelle Fultz expendable. This year, Philadelphia has the 26th best offense in the league with Simmons on the court (on par with the tanktastic New York Knicks). They play like a 36-win team with him and a 48-win team without him. (When Embiid isn’t on the court but Simmons is, the Sixers have the worst offense and worst defense in the NBA.)

Philly still likes to get Simmons going downhill, usually to his left, with a J.J. Redick ball screen near the free-throw line. It’s a tricky but increasingly predictable action that most defenses are starting to spot from a mile away, especially as they use it more and more towards the end of quarters. Here’s the best-case scenario: Malcolm Brogdon deciding Fultz is a threat in the weak-side corner.

More often than not, teams will either switch the screen and force Simmons/Redick to go one-on-one, or the floor will be too congested for him to do much of anything. Watch Michael Kidd-Gilchrist below.

It’s early, we’re months away from the trade deadline and buyout market. Someone like Kyle Korver can really help. But a smart thing Brett Brown has done to mitigate Philly’s shortage of outside shooting is use Simmons more as an off-ball scorer. That sounds insane, but this is less about his gravity flying off a pin-down and more about physical duck-ins and and the most intimidating Hawk cut in the league.

The sequence seen above is similar to what the Oklahoma City Thunder ran last season as a way to involve Carmelo Anthony, Paul George, and Russell Westbrook. (As covered by Ben Falk over at Cleaning the Glass.) Embiid screens for Simmons near the elbow and gifts him a free dash into the paint.

Below, the Indiana Pacers are ready for it. Bojan Bogdanovic spins under Embiid’s pick while Myles Turner drops a bit, ready to absorb Simmons’s cut. The Sixers shrug their shoulders and get a layup.

As Brown tinkers with different ways to accentuate Simmons’s nightmarish athleticism (while obscuring his setbacks) in lineups that feature Embiid and Butler, look for this more and more.

According to Synergy Sports, post-ups and cuts accounted for 18.2 percent of Simmons’s possessions last year. Right now they’re at 28.4 percent, with Brown stacking his playbook with more ways to let Simmons attack from spots on the floor where he’s comfortable. This baseline out of bounds set is a great example.

Simmons inbounds the ball and then immediately carves out post position for an entry pass. Simple, yet effective! But these actions aren’t enough to prop up Philadelphia’s offense and ultimately nullify an aesthetic that’s occasionally drowsy. Don’t let anyone ever tell you Simmons’s inability to shoot doesn’t matter, be it from the corner, elbow, or free-throw line. He’s awesome and has found ways to overcome it, but defenses know he isn’t willing to pull-up from 15 feet and they guard him as such. That’s more wart than novelty. Shooting helps! But harnessing his physicality on the block, along with different ways to leverage his speed in a half-court setting, is wise. They should/will lean into it even more now that Butler is on board.

All the Wizards Have is John Wall and Bradley Beal’s Subtle Chemistry

The Washington Wizards have won three in a row, but don’t let that distract you from the fact that they’re still an indifferent collection of untenable contracts. They don’t seem to care or try, and when they do it’s laughably stubborn. (So, you don’t think I can make this unnecessarily difficult pull-up two? Watch this!) Put on a Wizards game for ten minutes and your first takeaway should be that they desperately want to flex on the world but don’t have a gym membership. Steps are missing. Corners get cut. (In one recent play against the Orlando Magic, Washington surrendered a put-back dunk after Bradley Beal’s shoe came off and “prevented” him from hustling back into the frame.)

Their carelessness is underlined by bizarre lineup decisions—that include Scott Brooks’s penchant to play all-bench groups that have so far been outscored by (what follows is not a misprint) 29.3 points per 100 possessions—and a frustratingly fine point guard who’s powerful enough to take over a game while also being the number one reason it slips through his team’s fingers.

But hope lives in even the darkest corners of the NBA. And as inconsequential as it might be, flashes of chemistry between Washington’s two best players have provided a fleeting semblance of expertise commonly associated with professional athletics.

In both plays seen below, subtlety is key. Beal’s defender is primarily concerned with letting him race up off a down screen to either curl into the paint or stop cold for a jumper. Tyler Johnson sees Dwight Howard coming and all he’s thinking about is that pick, and how he can get over on it. John Wall knows this.

Terrence Ross is similarly positioning in the next example, but this one is a bit more scripted. As Wall dribbles up the floor, he points to his right, where Austin Rivers is jogging around Kelly Oubre and Jeff Green. The intention is not for Rivers to catch the ball, though. Instead, his purpose is to clear out one side of the floor, force several of Orlando’s defenders to focus on his movement, and let Beal fall into an easy layup.

Wall drops in a beauty, and Beal gets his easiest two points of the night. These reads won’t save Washington’s season, but, at the very least, they prove the Wizards (might) have a pulse.

What is Wrong With Terry Rozier?

Terry Rozier has range, athleticism, and the reflexes of a cat. He can pull up from 26 feet or knife towards the elbow and elevate over whoever’s guarding him. He loops the ball as he dribbles, yo-yo-ing it in place with enough command and elegance to make you stop and count how many players rival his authority over any given possession. He does what/gets where he wants and fluidly snakes pick and rolls with the best of them. He thrives in narrow spaces without turning it over and his toolbox has it all: filthy hesitation moves, a nasty between-the-legs crossover, the type of step-back that should/might be illegal. Before he went 0-for-5 on Wednesday against the Bulls, Rozier was making a career-best 42.6 percent of his threes.

Everything written above is true. It’s also irrelevant. Through the first month of his fourth season (the last before his next contract), Rozier’s potency has stalled. In 13 fewer minutes than he averaged throughout last year’s breathtaking postseason run, the 24-year-old’s weaknesses have amplified as he familiarizes himself with a new life as Kyrie Irving’s backup, struggling to identify his own responsibilities off the bench.

His game is a laundry list of needless split-second compromises. Rozier bails out defenders with jump shots that haven’t been falling, and rushes through motions that otherwise make him unguardable. He’s playing on an edge nobody else can see. Instead of dribbling into the paint and lofting a high floater over shot blockers who want him to take that exact shot, as seen below, why not sprinkle some craft and misdirection into his game by pump-faking his way to the free-throw line?

Or instead of taking that shot, why not string out the play by dribbling into the corner, forcing Meyers Leonard to switch, then breaking him down from the perimeter, forcing help and creating an open look elsewhere? This play is not an unusual one for Rozier. He’s either needlessly scrambling or uselessly placid, trying to fit in when the Celtics need him to stand out.

It’s common for players to let poor shooting/scoring numbers bleed into other parts of their game, but Rozier can’t afford to let that happen. He’s declined as a passer and for reasons that aren’t clear, has looked less comfortable than ever attacking the rim. His offensive rebound rate is less than half what it was last year, a crime given how dynamic he tends to be on the glass.

Rozier isn’t the only Celtic struggling, but he’s the most likely to get traded. And if this version of his game lingers for much longer, it’s unclear why another team will be willing to surrender anything of value for the right to pay his next contract.

Brook Lopez’s 3-Point Range is Madness

Look how far Brook Lopez is standing from the rim!

The furthest every NBA three-point line extends from the rim is 23.75 feet. (It’s 22 feet from the corners.) Lopez has already made three shots from at least 28 feet away! This isn’t totally new—he took 16 from that distance last season—but his range is noticeably expanding in a way that’s turned him into Milwaukee’s very own/slightly taller Ryan Anderson. Even in today’s era, this feels synthetic. Like, he’s taken and made as many 30-footers as Klay Thompson, Kyrie Irving, and Chris Paul. How is any of this real life?

Jabari Parker is Playing Defense, Kinda!

It’s too soon to say if this is small-sample-size theater or just one player’s overnight transformation into Spider-Man, but Parker is allowing the fewest points per possession in isolation among all non bigs in the entire league, per Synergy Sports. In 28 possessions, opposing players have only made five shots with Parker as their primary defender. (Those who rank above? Anthony Davis, Rudy Gobert, Wendell Carter Jr., and Domas Sabonis.)

The numbers might sound like a fluke but actually watch Parker do work and his quick hands and twitchy feet make this all feel somewhat sustainable. Here he is against James Harden and Jayson Tatum, two of the most difficult one-on-one covers in basketball.

Parker is jumpy, but in a good way, beating his man to spots after he boldly gets into their body to take away their shot. He displays a lateral quickness that, frankly, looks alien in his body. (Last season, Parker ranked 228th out of 263 players who defended at least 30 iso possessions. The year before that he was 268 out of 280.)

This is a far cry from claiming Parker is or will ever be a plus defender. But he’s only 23 and the Bulls have been better (but still bad) on that end when he’s on the floor. This might be more than nothing.

The Outlet Pass: The Draymond Green Trade Machine Edition syndicated from https://justinbetreviews.wordpress.com/

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Brent Barry Thinks Kyrie Irving Is “Scratching the Surface” in Boston

The Boston Celtics may or may not be the NBA’s best team, but nearly one month into the 2017-18 season they have more wins and a better defense than anyone else in the league. Given that they lost Gordon Hayward for the year only five minutes in, it’s all very shocking.

Kyrie Irving looks like a contestant on Chopped who has every ingredient known to man at his disposal. Al Horford ranks fifth in Real Plus-Minus. And just about everyone else on the team, particularly 19-year-old Jayson Tatum and 21-year-old Jaylen Brown, has exceeded expectations in roles they didn’t know they’d have during the preseason.

As part of TNT’s Thursday doubleheader, Boston will put its 13-game win streak on the line against the defending champion Golden State Warriors. On the call with Marv Albert will be 14-year NBA veteran Brent Barry, an analyst who knows what a legitimate championship contender looks like—he won it all, twice, as a member of the San Antonio Spurs.

Leading into it, we chatted with Barry about Boston’s surprising start, how Irving looks on his new team, why Marcus Smart is an invaluable puzzle piece, what he’s looking to see from the Celtics in their biggest game of the season against one of the best teams in NBA history, and much more.

VICE Sports: Are the Celtics the most pleasant surprise in the league right now?

Brent Barry: I would say maybe other than [Kristaps] Porzingis being able to carry what he’s carrying in New York City, just because the league would want me to say that, because it’s New York (and I’m totally being facetious).

But I think that what Boston has done in the wake of losing Gordon [Hayward] in the first couple minutes and thinking about, maybe from the outside in, how much of a devastating blow that would be to the hopes of an entire season: You go through the summer, the prodigal son returns to his coach in Boston, and you’re able to get Kyrie Irving. All of a sudden, the talk of Boston regaining championship form is dashed in the opening minutes of the first quarter of a game. So what they’ve done after that—the resiliency that they’ve showed, and certainly the consistent play that they’ve had to the tune of how many they’ve won in a row—has been pretty awesome.

What were your expectations for Boston before Hayward went down, and how low did their ceiling drop, in your eyes, in the days that followed?

I thought they could be the second best team in the Eastern Conference. I just felt like there was nothing that Toronto or Washington had done that I thought was something that would be a huge step up in terms of how much better they would be. Washington obviously retaining that starting five, which was great last year, but looking for bench help. Toronto just finding ways to be steady, but not be a threat to anybody.

Then when Gordon went down I thought, I don’t know, Boston’s probably still a playoff team, they’ll still play some good defense. I’m looking at the rest of the Eastern Conference thinking about who it is that’s gonna play consistently competitive basketball throughout the year, and I just couldn’t come up with four teams that would be better than what the Celtics would offer up. So I still thought they could be playoff team after Gordon went down, possibly in a fifth seed or something like that, just missing out on home court.

From that initial impression, how much has your opinion of the Celtics changed based on the first three weeks?

It’s changed a little bit. I feel like what I’ve seen out of Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum, more specifically, probably has me reassessing how I thought Boston would finish. I just feel like those guys have been so steady, and the opportunities that they’re getting on a nightly basis don’t seem to be something that can’t happen consistently. It’s pretty awesome.

There are a lot of coaches around the league that are looking for the next Marcus Smart

I went to the game in Atlanta last Monday, before I went into the studio to go to work, and I was thinking about how much of Boston’s offense—from what it is that I saw in person and how much I’ve watched on film—is forced offense. You know how many possessions—besides isolation plays for Kyrie towards the end of the game when they’re trying to generate an advantage somewhere, where he has it most of the time with his ball-handling—these guys are pressing to do things, and it just doesn’t happen that often. That to me is a sign of a really good team, a team that can be consistent in terms of their offense on a nightly basis.

That leads me right into my next question, touching on Boston’s night-to-night consistency. As someone who played 14 seasons and was traded both in-season and during the summer, can you speak to how difficult it is for a team that had so much roster turnover to look as cohesive on both ends as they have in the season’s opening few weeks?

I know that training camp was abbreviated and all that sort of stuff, but there’s really no change in that sense. You check in for training camp, you get your new sneakers, you put on your practice jersey, and the first day you’re on the court are guys you’re familiar with. They’re the guys you anticipated seeing on that day when you’re about to get your first practice in, so I don’t know if their adjustment was really all that significant, even though they lost familiar pieces in Avery Bradley and Jae Crowder and all that sort of stuff.

The other thing I was looking at, Michael, before you called me, was Boston has six of the top 16 players in defensive rating. Or, if you want to include Aron Baynes, seven of the top 26 defensive players right now, which is just an incredible number, to have that many guys contributing. It’s pretty sweet.

I know you’re a numbers guy, so my next question is a follow-up on your last point. Boston has been first in defensive rating for most of the year. They’re fifth in defensive rebound rate and that was a huge problem for them last season. When you dig into the advanced statistics—and I know you just brought up individual defensive ratings for a few guys—does anything else stand out to you about this team?

Well, I just think that for how much we’re celebrating basketball skill, how much we’re looking at these big guys that can shoot threes and run fast breaks, so much talk about the skill of the league. When I watch Boston play, and I watch Marcus Smart play, and I think about what the numbers would tell you about Marcus Smart, there’s not a lot of people that would tell you he’s one of their favorite players, yet it seems like whenever I’m reading something about the Boston Celtics, Danny Ainge or Brad is mentioning Marcus Smart most of the time.

And so if we move away from the celebration of basketball skill and we start to talk about basketball savvy, there’s so much of that in what Marcus Smart does for this team that helps me really believe in basketball. That might sound really cheesy to you, but I love when each character plays a role on a team. And when that role ends up helping other guys have success or get appreciated, but that player doesn’t ask for it or want to be mentioned, it’s pretty astounding. And Marcus is one of those players. He’s under appreciated from a general standpoint.

There are a lot of coaches around the league that are looking for the next Marcus Smart, and it’s not for Marcus to shoot a three, and it’s not for Marcus to throw some over-the-head, behind-the-neck pass to Jayson Tatum on the baseline, because he could have six turnovers in a row, or he’s gonna air ball the next three-pointer. It’s the fact that he’s calling out every set from the other team. It’s the fact that when he’s on the court, there’s a toughness that the Boston Celtics are able to play with. And there’s a spirit behind his play that makes him go.

There’s definitely an unquantifiable aspect to Smart’s game. I don’t think numbers can ever evaluate his total impact.

Great! Good. That’s great. There’s not a number for that, in today’s analytics-driven Twitter-sphere. Talk about this stat and the other. But the fact of the matter is you can still make contributions in a game where there’s five players out there that have responsibilities that can impact the greater good of your team, and Marcus does that in some very unique ways.

Speaking of variables that are hard to measure, everyone points to Brad Stevens as a guy who utilizes his players where they can be most effective. He gets them to play hard in those roles and in those spots. From the outside looking in, what is your impression of the job he’s done this year?

I think it’s been remarkable. We talked about Brad over the last two and a half seasons with glowing remarks and with good reason. He’s built a really good foundation in Boston, and a style of play in Boston that’s very much appreciated. He’s borrowed from some of the better teams in the league, some of the things that have worked. But I think one of the things that gets misconstrued with Brad—or maybe not misconstrued, maybe underappreciated—is his ability to connect with his players and provide an atmosphere for them to succeed.

I think I read something recently—besides him playing a bunch of Ms. Pac Man—about how Brad just doesn’t feel like he exists well when he’s angry. He just doesn’t communicate things well when he’s angry. And I think there are a lot of younger players that appreciate the fact that they have a coach in Brad Stevens that isn’t volatile and does a great job of communicating what it is that he wants, by not just demanding it from the player but at times asking for it, and at times just giving those guys the opportunities to show that they’re capable of doing it.

That’s very empowering when you have a coach that does that for you, especially when young players have that as their first experience with a coach. That can multiply many times over as that player goes through his career, and Brad’s got a couple of those guys in what Marcus Smart is, and what Rozier is, and what Jaylen Brown is, moving forward.

Photo by Dale Zanine – USA TODAY Sports

Switching gears, I want to talk about Kyrie Irving for a second. When you watch him play this year, have you seen any growth or adaptation in his game, or is he just an awesome talent taking advantage of a new situation?

I haven’t really dug into things statistically, where his shots may be coming from, or what percentage he’s shooting from different areas, but the fact of the matter is that Kyrie is in a situation where, for the first time—and you go back to his rookie year in Cleveland when he was handed the reins of a franchise after LeBron left, which was difficult—he has complements everywhere on the floor. He’s got complementary guards. He’s got complementary centers. And he’s playing in a style of offense that’s gonna have guys that like to move around and set screens and stay engaged and involved, where he can pick and choose his times to take advantage of what the defense is doing.

I just don’t think there’s been that kind of flow in any offensive situation that he’s been in. And given that he’s such a gifted offensive player, as the season goes on they’ll be able to go deeper and deeper into the playbook.

I think that basically he’s taking this opportunity, and he’s on a mission this year to prove what he’s learned and, more importantly, just how good he is. I love the way he plays. I just think he’s unbelievable to watch. What a treat to have Kyrie as your point guard every night.

People are gonna really be surprised by how gifted a passer and playmaker Kyrie can be, and again that speaks to him having very capable players around him, where day in and day out he’s getting more and more confidence. Not only in himself, but in what it is that those guys can do for him. So they’re just scratching the surface right now with him offensively.

His shooting numbers are pretty low so far, relative to the rest of his career, but when you watch him it’s easy to notice his willingness to make a great pass over a contested long two, which is what he was doing in Cleveland most of the time.

And maybe we can say that the early indicators right now about how Boston won over the course of the last couple years was Isaiah Thomas being Superman in the fourth quarter. We’ve already had instances this year where Kyrie’s been able to take over in the fourth quarter, where he’s been able to make and take big shots, and make big plays. I think there’s a big difference between how Kyrie will start to manipulate the last three or four minutes of games, given that I think he’s more of a willing playmaker during those times. But the idea that “Can Boston finish out games, and what will be the fourth quarter after all the attention Isaiah got last year?” There have been early indicators that that might not be as problematic as what people thought.

VS: Is there anything you can learn about Boston on Thursday? It’s so early in the season but are there any results in that game that can shift how you perceive them in terms of what they can accomplish this season?

Barry: If I can pinpoint one thing in that game, it’s if [the Celtics] can continue to dictate or play at their pace. If they don’t get sped up, or if the young guys don’t get caught up in the Warriors trying to run them around and make it a scoring contest, there’s a win in that. Whether they win or lose, there’s a win in the fact that Boston continued to play at their pace and not force offense against a team that…they haven’t seen the likes of what the Golden State Warriors represent. Not only offensively, but defensively. They’ll be looking at what it is that they aspire to be. Looking in the mirror, so to speak, defensively, about things being cut off, no lanes, no driving angles, contested shots, not fouling, all those sorts of things. So the win for Boston on Thursday will be, can they maintain the pace at which they play all their other opponents.

VS: Is there anything else you wish I asked that I didn’t, or anything else you’d like to say about the Celtics or Thursday night’s game (on TNT)?

Barry: I think one of the things that I’ve certainly been pleasantly surprised about is just how much Aron Baynes means to this team so far. I know he had the 21-point game, a career high the other night. But what he brings to their team, that’s been a pretty good signing. To think that you would lose two players in Crowder and Bradley, and think about the defensive impact it might have on your team, and then you go out and find a guy like Aron Baynes, who can come in and man up the middle, and decide to have him instead of $12 million of Kelly Olynyk, it’s a pretty remarkable signing, in my opinion.

VS: Baynes has been impressive on the defensive glass. His verticality has been great. Screen setting, on ball and off ball. Those have been pretty impactful this year.

Barry: Him and [Daniel] Theis, I mean between the two of them, that’s a pretty good management of your roster. And I love Kelly Olynyk. I love Kelly’s skills and all that stuff, but to think that you could manage the combined minutes of what Olynyk gave you last year, for the most part, with those two guys as your additions? That’s pretty heady.

Brent Barry Thinks Kyrie Irving Is “Scratching the Surface” in Boston syndicated from http://ift.tt/2ug2Ns6