#deadline posting about this…… prime we’re at your door

[fightingdragonswithwho]

being delusional and convincing myself aloto is getting renewed soon 😌

[rogue-bard]

The starting deadline had been his first gray hair. As a ginger person, it took him quite a lot longer than Fjord, who had started going all 'silver fox' by the sweet age of 20, and even Veth, who had just begun showing off a silver fringe around last year. He was, as far as he knew, the very last one. (Yasha and Essek didn't count in this comparison, for obvious reasons, and Caduceus disqualified based on dietary reasons...) But no matter how long it lasted, they had destroyed his last chance to save his parents in Aeor, and with it the only possibility to stop times' ever advancing gravitational pull on his very own sword of Damocles. There was the Time Stop spell though, and sometimes, Caleb had walked in on Essek, late at night, or early in the morning, when humans can be reasonably expected to be fast asleep, buried in Dunamancy books that specialized on time. It could have been nothing. Time was Essek's specialty, as he kept reminding Caleb. But maybe Essek, too, was trying to look for a way to stop time, in a very particular, partial way. And somehow, that thought hurt even more than pretending the Drow didn't care. Essek was making plans of torturing his lover by inviting Jester to arrive a week early for Caleb's fifty-fifth birthday – “You know she would love to help with preparations, and you will do everything in your spell book's power to finagle your way out of having to celebrate, which I won't allow this year.” – when it was there: In the mirror, in between red and orange and ginger. Caleb stared at it. “Do you think we should move Jester's and Fjord's room next to Veth's and Yeza's until everyone else arrives?” Essek's voice from the room next doors shook him out of his stupor. He sounded so lost in thought about something so mundane... Caleb twisted the thin, white strand around his palm. “Yes, we should,” he said, as he ripped as hard as he could. Only his birthday. They had still time until after his birthday. He wasn't gonna drop dead in front of his ever-young boyfriend because of a gray hair. He didn't need to leave Essek right now. Plus, when the Nein were there, on his birthday, and staying over until at least a couple of days after, Essek wouldn't be alone. Yeah. He shouldn't be alone. That was the whole point. “I think they will appreciate not being alone on the third floor.” Essek poked his head in, and Caleb saw his fanged smile in the mirror as he tried to hide the tiny sliver of gray in his hand like Essek would see it as the proof of betrayal that it was. He forced a smile on his own face, but it make his cheeks hurt. “As will you, I'm sure.” Essek let out a huff that was almost a laugh. “I could never alone,” he said. “Not when I am with you.” His cheeks still hurt. But now his eyes stung, too.

“Caaaay-leeeeb!” Jester, as usual, was very versed in using her outside voice, right next to his ear. “Oh my gosh, you're sooo old now!” He winced a bit. Weird, he was used to her voice, wasn't he? And his ears weren't bad, but they also were not what they used to be. “I am exactly one day older than 55,” he answered her warily. “Yupp, birthday's over now, birthday boy,” Veth nodded. “I'm sorry if we're in the way of you two love-birds celebrating it in a more private way.” She grinned at Essek who was standing next to him, their shoulders not even touching, but for some reason, Veth acted as if they were digging for each other's tonsils with their tongues. (As she does.) When nobody else dignified her remark with a reaction, Jester squealed: “Like making tiny ginger Drow babies that float and have really good hair and a weird accent!” “Or, you know, just fucking,” Veth shrugged. “Yeah, I don't think making babies works that way, Jester,” Fjord hummed, imperturbable by now to Veth's crass language or his wife's antics. Caduceus smiled down at the Half-Orc, a tiny glint of mischief in his eyes: “How can you be so sure?” And of course, Kingsley was right there with him: “Exactly! With two wizards, you never know. Might make tiny cat babies trying to figure out how to explode a house.” “Or explode a library trying to make soup,” Beau added flatly. “That was one time, Beauregard,” Caleb cut in at the same time as Essek said: “I still am very sorry about that. I hope you told the Soul as much.” The monk shrugged. “'s fine. Was more fun than I had there in a week.” “Also since you always come in disguise, they don't really know who you are and you can still come back and visit us and go look at books,” Yasha tried to cheer him up. “Very nice,” Veth said and gave them a thumbs up. “But back to fucking.” In the corner of his eye, Caleb could see Fjord facepalm. The blue Tiefling on his arm wasn't as merciful however: “Yes, tell us if you can make tiny floatie Eslebs! ...Cayseks?” “Through fucking,” Veth added with a nod. She was clearly trying to get a rise out of either of them. Yeza might have been looking apologetic, but he was very clearly relieved that for once, he wasn't the victim of his wife's brutal teasing. Caleb wasn't going to give her the satisfaction of blushing, but he assumed that he wasn't her prime target anyway, since he was pretty shameless when it came to these things. “I think it might be time for bed for me,” he simply said and was already turning around when he felt someone grip his wrist. When he turned to look, Essek leaned in to give him a kiss on the cheek, but only to disguise the whisper in his ear: “Do not dare leave me alone with them while they are in this mood!” He couldn't help but laugh, throwing Essek's clever ruse of faking a kiss to be subtle about his plea to the wind. “You could come with me,” he suggested. “Always,” Essek promised. Leaving tonight would be cruel, Caleb decided. Maybe he shouldn't leave Essek here with them, when they would needle him day and night about what might have transpired between them that had made Caleb leave. And Essek would be sitting up while they slept, mulling over their questions, thinking that he must have missed the clues, and that it was ultimately his fault. When in reality, it was just the inevitability of Essek finding him dead in bed one day, if he stayed for too long. But even though he tried to leave early so that Essek would remember him as the man he fell in love with, rather than a geriatric, he still had years if he wanted to. He could wait a few months. “Have fun fucking!”, Jester yelled after them and while Essek refused to turn around, Caleb just gave her a wary: “Ja, sure”.

Oh look! It’s a continuation of my last ficlet from this post! And I turned it into a ~5k fanfic! (read the whole thing on ao3 here)

[gypsydanger01]

THE STORM - Part seven

Fandom: The Boys (Amazon prime tv series)

Pairing: Black Noir x OC

Disclaimer: I don’t own The Boys, only my OC characters and certain pieces of au plot.

Comments, reviews, constructive criticism, and other requests are always more than welcome!

     Posting new chapters on Wednesday and Friday!

  Operation Whistle-blower

As the first tendrils of sunlight curled through her bedroom’s blind shades, Sarah rolled over in her bed, still unable to fall asleep. Her mind was crowded with thoughts surrounding her evening encounter. What was she going to do? The lines always grew muddy in these situations, and she still didn’t know what to think of Black Noir. If anything, their interaction only added to her confusion.

She was so tired. But nevertheless, she pulled herself into a sitting position and waited for the pounding at her temples to subside. Once it finally did, she stretched and rose from the warm bed.

And so, her morning began. Looking in the mirror, she wondered what had changed. She’d been training for these moments, preparing to execute her plan. When had she gotten so tired? When had she lost her edge? Wherever it went, she needed to find it immediately.

Sarah’s morning routine was precise, meticulous even. First, she made a quick stop in the bathroom to freshen up for the day. This was followed by a morning workout, consisting of either jump-rope hiit or strength exercises. She stretched and drank her lemon water. At that point, she always took a shower and decided her look for the day. Outfit, hairstyle, and makeup. Once she was prim and proper, she would head into the kitchen and make herself pancakes, which she considered to be the best start to any morning.

Once she’d cleaned up, she’d gather her things and head out.

On the other hand, Black Noir needed no more than three hours of sleep and often found himself awake throughout the night. He’d spend his time reading, prowling the city, or watching movies. He wasn’t quite sure how it’d started, but one movie every now and then turned into one or two movies a night.

When the sun begins to rise, he starts his routine of suiting up and eating breakfast. He would then enter the combat training room Vought had built for him and that only him and the company knew about. He clocked many hours in that room, constantly training and sharpening his skills. He’d freshen up before heading out for meetings or events.

Sometimes even missions. Now those were his favorites and he often found himself craving one just to be able to let go, to use his abilities. He was a master martial artist and interrogator. He was a spy supplied with strength, durability, and knife proficiency. When they assigned a target, it always ended up classified as ‘terminated’. He never missed, he never failed.

But that morning was like any other, and he had yet another string of meetings. And so, with great composure he completed his morning routine, slipped his mask on, and left his living quarters.

He found that the only thing he might look forward to as much as a mission, was meeting the woman who had captivated his attention that fateful night at the gala. She was different from what he’d originally imagined, still radiant but imperfect. Up close, watching her while she spoke, he had noted a sadness, a maturity in her eyes he wasn’t expecting. For the first time, he was personally invested in another human being, watching over her like a guardian. She was hiding something, and he’d get to the bottom of it soon enough.

..

The day went by in no rush, the hours slowly dragging along. The burning in her eyes and the heaviness of her limbs were nothing when compared to the pounding in her head.

Massaging her temples, Sarah tried to focus on the task at hand.

Someone hovered over her desk, “Long day?”

Sarah hummed before granting her friend some attention. She didn’t like the mischievous glint in her eyes.

“Or should I say long night?”

“Hell no, don’t start up with that,” Sarah immediately rejected the image she had conjured up at Martha’s words.

Martha merely huffed in disappointment but respected her wish to keep quiet about it at the moment. You could never really know who is watching or listening.

“All right, all right,” the blonde swept at her bangs. “Are you sure you’re up for tonight?”

Sarah immediately nodded, “Of course, we need to go over a few things.”

Martha watched her closely, “You hide it well, but you really need to slow down.”

She knew her friend meant well and was probably worried over her fatigued state, but there was no time for rest. She could sleep, but it never truly replenished her. It only kept her going.

And who could blame her for it? People who slept well weren’t constantly looking over their shoulder, afraid of being identified and murdered in cold blood. They weren’t leading a plan to take down one of the biggest, most successful pharmaceutical companies in the world. They weren’t being watched by an enhanced, murderous ninja who could tear their head off. Most of all, they didn’t fear burning up and clearing a block in their sleep.

As a little girl, she’d always sleep curled up at the center of the bed, far from the edges. Under no circumstances would she allow a limb to fall over the side. Now, she always slept with an arm hanging out, her fingers inches away from the backpack holding all the necessities to disappear at a moment’s notice. New passport, keys to a safe house, change of clothes, snack bars, lighter, knife, flashlight…

Sarah stirred herself from her thoughts, “It’s fine, I’m just not sleeping that well.”

The other woman pursed her lips.

..

What Martha had been referring to was their weekly night out every Friday. They would either go for dinner at a restaurant or go clubbing if they had to discuss anything in secrecy. That night, they were heading to one of their favorite clubs for dancing and plotting. A club is the perfect place to talk about sensitive information if you find the right spot inside. The loud music masks your words, and most of the people are drinking, buzzed, or completely wasted. And seeing them out together raised no suspicion because it simply looked like friends going out and having fun. Additionally, they got to dance which was always a plus in the two women’s eyes.

Martha often complained that at twenty-seven they were rapidly approaching the deadline for going to clubs, dancing events and such. She was often very dramatic about it, claiming they had to enjoy it before they got labelled as cougars. Sarah always brushed it off with a laugh, not even attempting to reason with her friend’s logic.

And while she enjoyed going to clubs or bars, that night she truly was regretting it. She slipped into a small, refined black dress and hopped into her heels. She’d already done her eye makeup and moved in front of the mirror to apply a rich, dark red lipstick. Her hair was left down, cascading over her shoulders in tight kinks and curls, a cloud of dark brown locks. She pulled her bangs to the side and took in her appearance in the mirror.

Alluring and mysterious, perfect.

Her phone vibrated from an incoming call. “Hey, I’m two minutes away, start locking doors or whatever it is that always makes you late.”

Sarah laughed and started to, indeed, shut her windows and lock the backdoor. She finally made it to the porch where she stood waiting for her friend’s Honda.

Little did she know, a certain someone was hidden on her roof, listening to her move around on the porch beneath him. Black Noir could smell the enticing perfume she’d applied and could hear the characteristic click of heels on wood. He breathed in deeply and restrained himself from jumping down.

She was lightly humming to herself, and he found the tune oddly familiar, but he couldn’t recall when he’d last heard it.

A light grey car rolled around the corner and came to a stop in front of the house.

When Sarah stepped down from the porch and onto the sidewalk, he couldn’t help but hold his breathe. Frozen in his spot, he grew hot at the elegant form-hugging dress she wore, her hips swaying from side to side. Ringlets of dark hair reached down the curve of her back. Where was she going looking like that?

As the car sped away, Black Noir took a few moments to collect himself. She’d completely clouded his mind, and he wasn’t sure how he felt about it. One of the things that made him so efficient was his ability to focus, always. In any situation, he selected and categorized his surroundings with an ease unlike any other man or woman. He was controlled. No distractions, ever. His outlet was killing, but even then, it was methodical.

But now he felt an underlying tension grow, right under the skin where he couldn’t reach. She was stunning, and he was sure others would think so as well. He’d gouge their eyes out. If he caught anyone catcalling, he’d rip out their tongues. Yes, that’s appropriate.

He shook his head, almost in an attempt to concentrate. Mostly, he was angry with her. Who was she meeting? He sneered at the thought of another man entering the picture.

And so, fueled by possessiveness and an unfathomable jealousy, he followed from the rooftops with an ever-watchful eye.

..

Having already been there multiple times, Sarah and Martha were quick to settle into their usual spot. Taking in the masses of moving bodies around her, Sarah glanced at the people within hearing range. A good rule a thumb was that if she could he hear them speak, so could they hear her.

She moved closer to her friend as Martha started, “I think this is a good time to proceed with everything. I mean, we’re only missing the codes to the lab.”

Sarah snorted, “Yeah, as well as infiltrating the lab, taking the samples and data—like the whole rest of the plan.” She mused, “Oh and don’t forget, we have to live through it and get everything to Max.”

Martha rolled her eyes, “Okay, you’re right but still…,” she took a sip of her drink, “it’s time. There’s a lot of confusion and change at Vought, it could easily be someone else.”

Sarah thought about it. “The plan is pretty solid. It has its risks, but I don’t think there’s any potential plan that doesn’t have any.”

Martha approved, “Exactly. Plus, it fits in with the timeline so we’re good.”

“Yeah….” Sarah trailed off before finally deciding, “I’ll do it next week. I get the algorithm and you crack it.”

Martha high-fived her and downed her drink. “Now that’s what I’m talking about.”

“To Operation Whistle-blower.”

Sarah smiled, “To Operation Whistle-blower”

After such extensive planning, it felt good to finally act, to make Vought pay. She would just need to hold it together for a little longer, focus and get the job done.

Looking over at the blonde she searched her eyes for doubt or remorse. After all, this wasn’t her battle and she’d gotten wrapped into it almost accidentally. They had met at Mallory’s house as teenagers and had been inseparable ever since. And they made a good team, always looking out for each other in the dangerous world of lies, conspiracies and death they grew up in.

Martha snapped her fingers, “You still with us?”

Laughing at her friend’s impatience, Sarah nodded and focused on the drink in front of her.

“Have you told Mallory how we’re proceeding?”

Growing serious, the brunette shook her head, “I only call at our scheduled time on Sunday. I’ll hint at it then.”

Martha leaned back in her seat, “Yeah, it would be great if she could muddy the waters even more, feed false information here and there.”

“You know she’ll help where she can, but I don’t want her involved,” Sarah repeated for the hundredth time, “She already doesn’t want me doing this, and she’s suffered enough.”

Watching her friend retreat into her thoughts, Martha made the snap decision to get up and literally force her to be present.

“Let’s dance.”

Sarah sputtered, “Well okay.” She stared wide-eyed at her friend, “That was sudden.”

“Well you know all that crap about,” she paused for emphasis, “Ces la vie”

The young brunette stood up and laughed at her friend’s antics as she was swept into the crowd.

Losing themselves to the music, they joined the mass of moving bodies, shaking hips and hands raised. The pounding music had since reached into their chest, their bodies almost vibrating to the fast tempo of the music. It was exhilarating, until Sarah’s head felt like it split open.

Martha touched her neck.

“Oh my god, Sarah what happened,” she yelled over the music.

She dragged her over to a less crowded corner and checked her over for any sign of injury. The bleeding woman could feel her agitation grow and spread throughout her body. Had someone nicked her? She looked back into the crowd, wondering who was hiding in there, waiting to finish her off. The dim lights over the sea of moving bodies concealed everything, both action and sound.

Martha found the source of her bleeding, “Oh god Sarah, it’s your ear, it’s bleeding.” Looking up with knowing eyes she placed her hands on the brunette’s shoulders, steadying her. “Look at me, we’re fine. You need to calm down.”

Sarah’s eyes were traced by thin glowing veins, and her breaths were increasingly shallow. She could feel her heartbeat at the tips of her fingers, her whole body on edge.

When Sarah looked from side to side, Martha lightly shook her to catch her attention. “Hey,” she warned.

Slowly, the net of glowing light blue retreated.

“Are we cool?”

Sarah swallowed, “Yeah, I’m fine now.”

Martha tugged on her hand and led her to the exit. They both knew she needed to go home and fully slow down—come down from her high. The moment of danger had triggered a response that she thought had long went dormant.

“It’s been a long time since I last saw you like that.”

Sarah merely wrapped her arms around her waist. After the moment of scalding hot, she was now left cold, almost shivering.

“Has it happened since last time.”

Sarah stared ahead. “Not really.”

“What do you mean ‘not really’?

The brunette kicked at a small rock on the sidewalk. “When I sleep and I remember things, I feel it. But I wake up each time.”

“Jesus, no wonder you’re not sleeping.” Martha looked over at her pensive friend, “I’m staying over tonight. It can be a sleepover like the old days.”

Sarah smiled at the thought of their wild adventures. Their sleepovers were not what people commonly thought of. There was no braiding, nail polish or barbies. It was training, sparring, and eating abnormal amounts of ice-cream.

“You’re going to rest, and I’m going to make you some tea,” Martha decided.

“So a different kind of sleepover,” Sarah pointed out.

Martha looked over, worry in her eyes. “Yeah, a different kind of sleepover.”

When she stayed silent, the blonde made a light-hearted comment, “You know we need to branch out, get out of our comfort zones so that we can grow as human beings”

At Sarah’s laugh she proceeded, “Maybe we should try braiding your hair, too.”

The brunette raked a hand through the ends of her curly hair, “Please, you don’t have what it takes.”

Laughing, Martha agreed. From behind them, someone called out.

“Hey, girls, wait up.” A stocky man with hard eyes but a blinding smile came to stand way too close for comfort, and they both took a step back.

“Can I get your numbers?”

“Excuse me?”

“Can I get one of your numbers” he asked again, but slower.

They were both getting bad vibes. Sarah sized him up, still rattled from what happened in the club.

“Yeah, we understand English, we just don’t know what you’re trying to achieve here.”

Martha interjected with a disbelieving tone, “Are you trying to get both of our numbers?”

He smirked and ran a hand through his hair, probably thinking he was cute.

“Well, I’ll take what I can get. One or both.”

Martha smiled widely, “Yeah, no, that was the worst attempt to a get a girl’s number in the history of pick-up lines.”

Sarah agreed, “We’re leaving.”

She promptly spun around but was stopped when he grabbed her wrist and shook her. She looked back at him and down at his hold, feeling the energy bubbling right under the surface.

“Come on, I know you want it, no way you weren’t dancing for attention in there.”

And for an instant she got a glimpse into his mind, pictures clouding her thoughts. Her own mind was now spun up, running a thousand miles per hour as her body grew increasingly hot. Martha attempted to catch her attention.

“Come on, let’s go, we’re leaving now.”

But Sarah stood stock still, staring at the man as he grew more and more uncomfortable. Not as bold as before, he tried to back out. When she felt a looser tension on her wrist, she twisted and grabbed onto his, pulling him close.

Her temperature surpassed what would commonly be considered a fever, and she felt the characteristic burning warmth pervading her chest, like ribbons of fire and smoke swirling though her ribcage.

The man started to feel heat on his wrist, and, confused, he tugged. Sarah never moved. And Martha was terrified, not knowing how to knock her friend out of her trance-like state of focus on the disrespectful man in front of them. She had already been on edge, and him grabbing her like that must have sent her barreling over a metaphorical cliff.

Growing scared, he tugged even harder, to no avail. She saw Jason in his features. And suddenly, her skin was so hot, he was burning. She seared the shape of her fingers onto his wrist and ignored the smell of burning skin in the air.

“Oh god, Sarah that’s enough.”

She pressed harder, and he kneeled to the floor, trying to twist out of her grasp.

“Sarah, you’ll blow our cover,” she tried, and finally pleaded, “Marianna.”

That got to her, somewhere in her mind. It shook her and distracted her from the surge of energy building up inside.

Leaning down, she whispered. “You need to learn to respect women. We’re not weak playthings, you hear?”

He nodded insistently, and she finally let him fall back onto the sidewalk, clutching onto his wrist.

Martha watched her, “Now, are we cool?”

Sarah couldn’t quite meet her eyes, “I’m sorry.”

Martha was slightly fuming, but it was worry that truly consumed her.

“You better do some jumping jacks or flap your arms to cool down, because you will not burn my leather seats.”

..

Once they left, the silence in the car was suffocating.

Sarah finally pierced it, “I saw what he was thinking, Martha. Not like I could in the past—just a glimpse.”

She peered out of the window into the night.

“And it was horrible.”

..

Up on the rooftops, Black Noir had watched the interaction with growing frustration.

Ready to make his way down to kill the man, he stopped in his tracks. Was this the secret she’d been hiding? She too was enhanced.

She wasn’t on any of Vought’s lists or indexes, which confirmed the fact that she was using a fake identity. So, if she was hiding, presumably from the company that had made her into what she is, why was she working there? So many questions, and no answers.

And why had the other woman called her Marianna? Was that her true name?

His patience was growing thin, but he decided he wouldn’t advance on her until he had a better understanding of where she stood. He found himself proud of how she’d handled the man. Disappointed that she hadn’t killed him, but proud, nonetheless. If she had simply given over her number, he wasn’t sure what he would’ve done. Violent thoughts danced behind his eyes but he wasn't sure he'd be able to carry them out, not on her.

He leapt down from where he was perched and followed the man without a sound.

And in the dark of night, one can only imagine what happened when he finally reached him.

-Giulia

Tag list: @ateliefloresdaprimavera @ellejo @dust-bun @coco724​  @proximio-5​ @damiminator

[newstfionline]

Monday, July 12, 2021

US economic recovery (WSJ) The U.S. economic recovery is unlike any in recent history, powered by consumers with trillions in extra savings, businesses eager to hire and enormous policy support. Businesses and workers are poised to emerge from the downturn with far less permanent damage than occurred after recent recessions, particularly the 2007-09 downturn. New businesses are popping up at the fastest pace on record. The rate at which workers quit their jobs—a proxy for confidence in the labor market—matches the highest going back at least to 2000. American household debt-service burdens, as a share of after-tax income, are near their lowest levels since 1980, when records began. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up nearly 18% from its pre-pandemic peak in February 2020. Home prices nationwide are nearly 14% higher since that time. The speed of the rebound is also triggering turmoil. The shortages of goods, raw materials and labor that typically emerge toward the end of an expansion are cropping up much sooner. Many economists, along with the Federal Reserve, expect the jump in inflation to be temporary, but others worry it could persist even once reopening is complete. “We’ve never had anything like it—a collapse and then a boom-like pickup,” said Allen Sinai, chief global economist and strategist at Decision Economics, Inc. “It is without historical parallel.”

Rent prices are soaring as Americans flock back to cities (Washington Post) Lauren Campos opened the door to her Phoenix apartment last week to find a note stuck in the door frame. Her rent was going up nearly $400 a month, the note said, a 33 percent increase. Rents are starting to surge in many parts of the country as the economy reopens and young people return rapidly to cities. Nationwide, rent prices are up 7.5 percent so far this year, three times higher than normal, according to data from Apartments.com. Analysts expect rent prices to keep climbing for the foreseeable future, a major burden for renters and a warning sign that higher inflation could linger far longer than the White House and Federal Reserve keep predicting. Rents for single-family homes are growing at the fastest pace in 15 years, according to data firm CoreLogic. Parts of the country that used to be considered affordable are suddenly experiencing the kind of rent frenzy with bidding wars and surging prices that had previously been exclusive to mega cities like San Francisco and New York City.

Heat wave blankets US West as fires rage in several states (AP) Firefighters struggled to contain an exploding Northern California wildfire under blazing temperatures as another heat wave blanketed the West. Death Valley in southeastern California’s Mojave Desert reached 128 degrees Fahrenheit (53 Celsius) on Saturday, according to the National Weather Service’s reading at Furnace Creek. The shockingly high temperature was actually lower than the previous day, when the location reached 130 F (54 C). If confirmed as accurate, the 130-degree reading would be the hottest high recorded there since July 1913, when Furnace Creek desert hit 134 F (57 C), considered the highest measured temperature on Earth. About 300 miles (483 kilometers) northwest of the sizzling desert, the largest wildfire of the year in California was raging along the border with Nevada.

Richard Branson and his Virgin Galactic crew are safely back from space, ushering in a new era (Washington Post) Richard Branson completed a daring, barnstorming flight to edge of space Sunday, rocketing through the atmosphere in the spaceplane he’d been yearning to ride for nearly 20 years. The suborbital trip gave the British billionaire, his three crewmates and two pilots a glimpse of the Earth from more than 50 miles up and a few minutes of weightlessness before the vehicle they were traveling in, SpaceShipTwo Unity, glided back to Earth and a landing on the runway at Virgin Galactic’s facility in the New Mexico desert. It was SpaceShipTwo’s fourth trip to the edge of space since 2018, and Virgin Galactic, the company Branson founded in 2004, says it will soon start flying paying customers regularly on similar jaunts, opening a new era in human space exploration.

For a $12.50 raffle ticket, the keys to drug lord El Chapo’s seized safe house in Mexico await (Washington Post) Mexican drug lord Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán was naked and asleep with his mistress, Lucero Sanchez, when Mexican marines battered down his front door in 2014. Without time to put on clothes, the lovers ran to the bathroom, and plugged in a cord: causing hydraulics to lift up an unassuming bathtub. Concealed below was a web of secret tunnels leading to other hideouts through the town’s sewage system. With little time to spare, Guzmán and his lover escaped. Eventually caught for the last time in 2016, Guzmán is serving a life sentence in Colorado. Now the two-bedroom house in northwestern Mexico could be yours for the cost of lottery ticket. The Mexican government is raffling off the site of Guzmán’s dramatic escape, along with seven other houses, seven apartments, five lots, a ranch, and a 20-seat viewing box at the Azteca Stadium in Mexico City. The prizes—confiscated assets from various criminal operations and now owned by the government—are valued at a total of $12.5 million. Lottery tickets cost 250 pesos ($12.50). Winning tickets will be drawn on Sept. 15, the day before Mexico’s Independence Day.

The assassination of Haiti’s president has thrown the nation into disarray (NYT/Washington Post) Shootouts have erupted in the streets of Port-au-Prince, and terrified citizens have been cowering in their homes after President Jovenel Moïse was gunned down in his residence on Wednesday. At least 20 people—18 Colombians and two Haitian Americans—have been detained in the attack. The Haitian authorities have asked the U.S. to send troops to stabilize the country. But the Biden administration showed no immediate enthusiasm for sending even a limited American force. Some in Haiti quickly criticized the request, citing other foreign interventions that left a trail of abuses. Moïse’s assassination sparked dueling claims to power. Four men have staked claims to either the presidency or the prime minister’s post. Since the assassination, Haiti has plunged deeper into a complex crisis that risks creating a Somalia in the Caribbean—a failed state 800 miles off the coast of Florida ridden by violence, overcome by disease, inflation and deepening hunger and controlled by warlord-like factions and weak nominal governments.

Black Sea drills showcase strong NATO-Ukraine defense ties (AP) Ukraine and NATO have conducted Black Sea drills involving dozens of warships in a two-week show of their strong defense ties and capability following a confrontation between Russia’s military forces and a British destroyer off Crimea last month. The Sea Breeze 2021 maneuvers that ended Saturday involved about 30 warships and 40 aircraft from NATO members and Ukraine. The captain of the USS Ross, a U.S. Navy destroyer that took part in the drills, said the exercise was designed to improve how the equipment and personnel of the participating nations operate together. “We’d like to demonstrate to everybody, the international community, that no one nation can claim the Black Sea or any international body of water,” Cmdr. John D. John said aboard the guided missile destroyer previously deployed to the area for drills. “Those bodies of water belong to the international community, and we’re committed to ensure that all nations have access to international waterways.” The Russian military also conducted a series of parallel drills in the Black Sea and southwestern Russia, with warplanes practicing bombing runs and long-range air defense missiles’ deploying to protect the coast.

Pope appears in public for first time since surgery (AP) Pope Francis on Sunday made his first public appearance since major intestinal surgery last week, greeting well-wishers as he stood for 10 minutes on a hospital balcony, offering hearty thanks for the prayers for his recovery and calling health care for all a “precious” good. Francis, 84, has been steadily on the mend, according to the Vatican, following his July 4 scheduled surgery to remove a portion of his colon which had narrowed due to inflammation. But it hasn’t said just when he might be discharged. On the morning after his surgery, a Holy See spokesperson said his hospital stay was expected to last seven days, “barring complications.” In his remarks, the pope praised the “tenderness” of those who care for the sick, which he said was “like a caress that makes you feel better, eases the pain and picks you up.”

Thousands evacuated from floods in China’s Sichuan, more rain forecast (Reuters) Heavy rains and flooding have forced thousands of people to evacuate in China’s southwestern province of Sichuan, with authorities on Sunday urging citizens across the country to brace for more downpours. In Sichuan, torrential rain since Friday has raised the water levels of 14 rivers, swept away boats and bridges and forced the evacuation of more than 4,600 people, state media reported. While no casualties have been reported, state media said the rain and flooding have affected more than 120,000 people, forced the cancellation of some train services and caused more than 176 million yuan ($27 million) worth of damage. About 27,000 homes in the city of Bazhong, Sichuan were reported to be without power.

Netanyahu vacates prime minister’s residence in Jerusalem (AP) Benjamin Netanyahu and his family vacated the Israeli prime minister’s official residence early Sunday, nearly a month after the longtime leader was ousted from office with the formation of an alternate government. A family spokesman confirmed the Netanyahus left the residence on Balfour Street in Jerusalem shortly after midnight, in line with a deadline agreed upon last month with newly inaugurated Prime Minister Naftali Bennett. The Balfour residence had become a symbol of the Netanyahus’ scandals, and was the scene of weekly protests against Netanyahu for much of the past year. Demonstrators called on the then-prime minister to resign while on trial for corruption. Netanyahu has denied any wrongdoing and refused to step down.

Syria’s president decrees 50% salary hike amid harsh crisis (AP) Syrian President Bashar Assad issued a decree Sunday giving hundreds of thousands of civil servants and military members a 50% salary increase amid a harsh economic and financial crisis and price increases for vital products. Assad’s decision came a day after the state doubled the price of bread, the country’s main staple, and increased by 180% the price of diesel fuel. The Syrian economy has been hard hit by a decade of war, Western sanctions, widespread corruption and most recently a severe economic and financial crisis in neighboring Lebanon. The last salary increase was announced in November 2019. The decree released by Assad’s office put the minimum monthly income at 71,515 Syrian pounds ($22). Nearly 80% of Syrians live in poverty, and 60% are food insecure—the worst food security situation ever seen in Syria, according to the United Nations.

[tkmedia]

Celtics' best path to Bradley Beal, or any third star, might be through cap space rather than a trade

Getty Images Trading for superstars is typically an aspirational exercise. You draft well, hoard picks and make your franchise appealing enough to maybe, one day have the opportunity to add a franchise player. But in the not-too-distant past, the Boston Celtics under Danny Ainge had such an enormous asset advantage that they felt they could afford to be picky about which superstars they targeted. They seemingly passed on opportunities to swipe Jimmy Butler, Paul George and Kawhi Leonard at reasonable prices in part to preserve the trade chips they would one day need to acquire Anthony Davis, who, of course, would prove uninterested in wearing green. As they waited, their assets depreciated. The picks the Celtics made lost value because there were too many of them for the majority to actually receive playing time. The picks they held lost value because the teams they originally belonged to improved. The All-Stars they already had left en masse. Kemba Walker was signed to replace them, but two years later, his health had deteriorated so rapidly that a first-round pick had to be attached to him just to trade him for Al Horford back. Now, with Brad Stevens at the helm, the stockpile is gone. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have graduated from trade bait status into bona fide, in-their-prime stars, but Boston no longer has the draft picks or the surplus of young talent needed to supplement them. After years of turning away gettable stars, the Celtics are now just like everybody else: desperate for players that they might no longer have access to. That's an enormously frustrating position for a team to find itself in right as a superstar who could potentially have interest in hopping aboard nears availability. Bradley Beal has not yet requested a trade. Such a request could come in the near future, but even if it doesn't, Beal can become a free agent next offseason. Resolution on his future is approaching, and on paper, Boston appears to be a strong fit. Beal and Tatum are lifelong friends having both grown up in St. Louis, and when Tatum saw an Instagram post about Beal trade rumors, he didn't exactly hide his interest in a partnership. Boston probably could land Beal through a trade by making Brown available, but that would defeat the entire purpose of a deal. The current, two-star Celtics aren't championship contenders, and such a swap would be a fairly modest upgrade. Making a trade without Brown almost certainly won't be possible. Even if the Celtics were willing to give Washington the sort of all-in draft picks-based package the Brooklyn Nets gave the Houston Rockets for James Harden, the Wizards probably wouldn't take it. Brooklyn's future picks had value because Harden, Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving are all nearing the end of their primes. Durant is 32 right now. Tatum will be 30 in 2028, the last year Boston can legally trade a first-round pick this offseason. The Celtics are too young to entice the Wizards that way. Barring something unforeseen, Boston has no clear path to trading its way into a Tatum-Brown-Beal trio. The now-ubiquitous pre-agency period of the player empowerment era has, in many instances, made trading a necessity. Stars exert so much pressure before they reach free agency that their situations are usually solved by the time free agency actually arrives, yet Beal's unique circumstances suggest that his case might be a bit more traditional. Davis pushed for his trade a year-and-a-half prior to the expiration of his contract. Beal has a year to go and no request has been made. He plays for a franchise that is notoriously averse to tanking and is coming off a season that was severely negatively impacted by COVID-19. Beal's loyalty to Washington is well known. Even if he's leaving the Wizards eventually, there isn't yet reason to believe that such a move would be immediate. The Russell Westbrook-led supporting cast helped Washington win 18 of its last 25 regular-season games. If Beal wants to give that group one last chance, free agency suddenly becomes a viable path to his acquisition.That would significantly complicate matters for certain suitors. The Golden State Warriors, for instance, are not only too far above the cap to feasibly create max space in 2022, but would likely struggle to even fit Beal under the hard cap that a sign-and-trade would induce unless Klay Thompson or Draymond Green was involved in the deal. The one benefit to having lost as many players as Boston has is that it has, for now, left the Celtics with a fairly clean cap sheet.  Tatum's max contract extension is set to begin next season, but because he missed out on an All-NBA selection, he had to settle for 25 percent of the cap as his starting salary rather than the 30 percent he would have been eligible for as an All-NBA player under the Derrick Rose Rule. Brown, signed before he grew into a star, isn't making any version of the max. Even with possible incentives factored in, he and Tatum will combine to make roughly $59 million in the 2022-23 season -- slightly more than half of the projected $115.8 million cap for that offseason. Not all two-star teams are created equal. Washington, for example, is set to pay Beal and Westbrook almost $79 million this season. Boston has very little dead weight on its books beyond the two stars. That was, in part, the motivation for the Walker trade. He is owed over $37 million for the 2022-23 season. Horford has a $26.5 million cap figure for that offseason, but only $14.5 million of that is guaranteed. If Boston could clear the decks beyond that dead money and its two stars, it could still get reasonably close to the max. As a 10-year veteran, Beal will be eligible for a projected salary of roughly $40.5 million in the summer of 2022. Boston could get to almost $33 million with just Tatum, Brown and the waived portion of Horford's money accounted for. That's not the max, of course, but if the Celtics could get him in the door on a one-year deal with a player option afterward, they could use his Non-Bird rights to bump him up to above $39 million in 2023 on a long-term deal. The Celtics' ideal scenario would obviously not involve dead Horford money, though. That's where their picks become more valuable. Attaching one or two to trade Horford into another team's cap space (perhaps, ironically, Oklahoma City's) is fairly realistic. At that point, keeping some of the young players currently in place would be feasible. Boston has four former first-round picks that will still be on rookie deals by that point, and their team options for the 2022-23 season are so cheap that, without Horford, keeping all of them along with the non-guaranteed deal of young big man Moses Brown wouldn't prevent the Celtics from coming close to max cap space next offseason.  PlayerSalaryJayson Tatum$30,351,780Jaylen Brown$28,741,071*Romeo Langford$5,634,257Grant Williams$4,306,281Aaron Nesmith$3,804,360Payton Pritchard$2,239,200Moses Brown$1,846,738Demetrius Jackson (dead money)$92,857Incomplete roster charges (six) $4,765,060Total salary$81,781,604Projected cap space$34,005,022*Includes $2,071,428 in likely incentives, per Spotrac.Again, this is short of the max, but we're in stone's throw territory. Get off of Langford or some combination of the others and they're basically there. Boston could preemptively decline its team options, as decisions are due early next season, but there's no point at such low cap figures. Those deals are all moveable without much pain. The pain would come this offseason, and Boston's willingness to endure it will say quite a bit about its long-term ambitions. Planning for cap space is a multi-year endeavor that involves letting go of immediate contributors in the hopes that the space their absence creates can yield something better. If the Celtics want to create max cap space next offseason, they're going to have to let go of Evan Fournier this offseason. They won't be able to sign a mid-level replacement to a long-term deal either unless they're confident they can trade that player next summer. No rookie extension for Robert Williams would be possible in this scenario either. Marcus Smart is a 2022 free agent, so Boston could delay a long-term decision on his status for now, but any scenario in which it signs a max player would mean renouncing his cap hold and letting him walk as well.Those are the stakes of playing the cap space game. Boston would be weakening itself right now by letting Fournier go. It would be inviting locker room tension by forcing key contributors this season to play for contracts next summer -- an approach that didn't go particularly well during the 2018-19 campaign. It would be doing all of this on a prayer. It might yield Beal or another star. But there's a good chance that it doesn't. Beal could ask for his trade in the middle of the season, or the Wizards could proactively move him without a request at the deadline if they sense their long-term hope is lost. He could decide that Washington is where he wants to spend his entire career. He could reach free agency and choose a different team. There are alternatives available to Boston if that's the case. Zach LaVine is currently playing with Tatum on Team USA, for instance, and while Chicago could renegotiate and extend him up to the max this offseason, doing so would deprive the Bulls of the cap space they'd need to properly surround him with a winning roster (which I explained in more depth here). There's a good chance he will be a free agent as well next summer.It's just exceedingly rare that any team enters free agency feeling particularly strongly about its chances at landing a star. Like a star trade, signing one outright is aspirational. It's something that's unlikely even after a team has committed several years to the pursuit. Boston was, at one time, too risk-averse to trade for Kawhi Leonard. That's not the sort of team that typically punts away entire seasons on the hope that doing so could eventually bear fruit in free agency.Next season might be a lost cause regardless, though. Fournier is a good player, but the last team to commit starter money to him for multiple years has zero playoff series wins to show for it. Williams has enormous upside, but if Stevens expected him to reach it, he likely would have played him more than 19 minutes per game as Boston's coach last season. Smart is the heart of a team that has already lost several other vital organs. The practical cost here isn't enormous. The Celtics aren't breaking up a surefire contender to chase a dynasty, but contention is a fairly nebulous concept.The Phoenix Suns proved that by reaching the Finals this season. The Suns weren't a traditional super team. They had two All-Stars and the perfect supporting cast. They got the right breaks and came two wins away from a championship. There's an argument in favor of that blueprint through its sheer attainability. Boston already has two All-Stars. The Celtics made the Eastern Conference finals in three of the four seasons prior to 2021 and could credibly claim that COVID-19 derailed their season. An organic bounce-back season might be in the cards. They have role players who could become champions under the right circumstances.But waiting for those circumstances is part of what got Boston into this mess in the first place. Its chance at a dynasty might have been squandered by waiting too long to be this aggressive. Its margin for error is gone. The Celtics can no longer afford to be greedy. They can have something resembling their current roster and try to be opportunistic with minimal assets down the line, or they can start planning their big swing right now with the understanding that they could very well miss entirely. That's a risk Boston tried to avoid under Ainge. It's one it might need to take to get back into the championship picture under Stevens. Read the full article

[un-enfant-immature]

Only 4 days left on super early bird pricing for Disrupt Berlin 2019

Our countdown to the super early-bird deadline and serious savings continues unabated, people! The best pricing for passes to Disrupt Berlin 2019 ends in four days. When the clock strikes 11:59 p.m. (CEST) on 6 September, your chance to save up to €600 evaporates. Save your euros for another day and buy your pass right now.

We expect more than 3,000 attendees from more than 50 countries including European Union members, Israel, Turkey, Russia, Egypt, India, China and South Korea, to name just a few. If you’re a founder, there’s no better place to introduce your early-stage startup to the European and international startup scene.

If you’re an investor, you’ll find hundreds of dynamic early-stage startups exhibiting a wide range of tech products, services and platforms — not to mention a ton of talent — in Startup Alley. Talk about networking on steroids — and a prime opportunity to add to your portfolio.

Don’t just take our word for it. Vlad Larin, co-founder of Zeroqode found tremendous value in his Disrupt Berlin experience.

“TechCrunch Disrupt was a massively positive experience,” said Larin. “It gave us the chance to show our technology to the world and have meaningful conversations with investors, accelerators, incubators, solo founders and developers.”

And Jana Rosenfelder, co-founder of Actijoy, has attended three — count ‘em, three — Disrupt conferences. She’s a true believer in the networking opportunities that await founders and investors alike.

“Every startup should attend TechCrunch Disrupt,” said Rosenfelder. “It’s absolutely worth the money, because you can network and make important connections.”

Rosenfelder exhibited as one of our TC Top Picks at Disrupt SF ’18 and called it a door-opening experience. We’re accepting applications to TC Top Picks at Disrupt Berlin right now. Apply right here for your chance to win a free Startup Alley Exhibitor Package, VIP treatment and tons of investor and media love.

That’s just a small sample of reasons to go to Disrupt Berlin. Don’t forget Startup Battlefield, the TC Hackathon and two full days of incredible speakers — leading founders, tech titans and top investors — boundary-pushers all. We’ll keep you posted on our growing roster in the coming weeks.

Disrupt Berlin 2019 takes place on 11-12 December, and you have just four days left to get super early bird prices on your passes to this epic conference. The deadline strikes at 11:59 p.m. (CEST) on 6 September. Keep up to €600 in your pocket — buy your pass today.

Is your company interested in sponsoring or exhibiting at Disrupt Berlin 2019? Contact our sponsorship sales team by filling out this form.

[riichardwilson]

What Apple and Netflix Got Right About Being Second Movers

May 5, 2020 7 min read

Opinions expressed by Entrepreneur contributors are their own.

It’s a natural human response to see a company succeed in an industry and look elsewhere for your own successful idea. Why charge forward in an arena that already has one business getting things right?

But if that were the case, there would be no Apple. There would also be no Facebook or Instagram or TikTok, only MySpace. There’d be no Netflix; you’d probably be watching shows on Blockbuster+ now. 

The point is that there’s always room for a second mover to come in and improve upon what’s already being done, even in a burgeoning industry. It’s not always easy. Apple encountered a lot of struggles alongside its success over its first 15 years, but the wins that propelled it past the likes of IBM are possible for any growing company.

The Second-Mover Advantage

There are some first-mover advantages; a pioneering company goes through a natural progression of buzz and admiration. It determines how others view its industry, setting the standards everyone else will (relatively) be expected to follow. Its growth is celebrated and tracked, and money often follows. Then, however, it faces heightened scrutiny. 

In any new industry, there are three phases: disruption, awareness and correction. We saw this with Microsoft in the 1990s, and we’re seeing this now with Facebook — even if the brand was technically more of a first behemoth than a first mover. The most well-known company in a new industry usually takes the brunt of that industry’s scrutiny, up to about the 15-year mark. It seems to be our natural predisposition to build up the narrative around successful new companies and then correct when we think they’re “too big.” 

It’s something Amazon and Google have navigated better than most, but even they’re not fully immune. Still, the three phases they followed can light the way for other newcomers. 

Related: In Technology, Entrepreneurs Must Take the Biggest Shots to Make the Biggest Gains

1. Disruption

Disruption puts an industry on the map. Ridesharing is probably the most oft-used example. Uber entered the market and completely changed how many people decided to both use transportation and earn a side income. The gig economy was fueled, and it then influenced other industries and services. 

But disruption doesn’t have to solely refer to a new product or service. It can also be a new process. That’s incredibly evident in the direct-to-consumer model, where everything from eyeglasses to mattresses was disrupted, allowing Warby Parker and Casper to become household names. 

Education is prime for disruption. A recent Fortune article detailed the domestic and global need for more healthcare workers, positing that the millions of recently unemployed should be hired as community-health workers. Re-skilling was already growing as an alternative for companies to create less turnover, but now a more efficient way to transition people into healthcare jobs has become necessary.

Carrus CEO Misty Frost, whose company helps workers from other professions re-skill and certify for healthcare jobs, recently wrote for Thrive Global about finding meaningful work in a pandemic, noting that, “Losing a job can start a cycle of grief that can be difficult to get out of. However, it’s important to use your time wisely to bounce back, taking stock of your skills (and potentially reskilling to shift your career), establishing a new routine and seeking new opportunities. Now more than ever, many of those new opportunities are in the field of healthcare.” The pandemic itself has stirred disruption.

2. Awareness

There’s always a learning curve for a new industry. As the masses start to use a product or service, people begin to understand how it can further be improved. This is where the second mover starts to shine. It can pivot more easily than the first mover, with entrenched stakeholders and a set image. The newcomer can position itself better to appeal to the growing tastes of the industry. 

When the mattress industry was first being disrupted, it had a common theme: direct-to-consumer mattresses, shipped to your door for a free trial. It was first marketed as a less expensive alternative to conventional mattress shopping. And it worked. Direct-to-consumer mattress brands grew. But there was a sizable buying market that wasn’t shopping for discounts; it was shopping for quality and performance. The standard DTC mattress supply chain utilizes the same manufacturer in China, regardless of brand, to keep costs down. 

Upstart company Purple recognized an opportunity to grow the industry beyond its start by building its own technology and production line, making everything in the United States. That required a sizable initial investment, but the brand has been able to carve out a growing segment focused on sleep quality and comfort technology. This vertical integration allows Purple to respond to market demand and enter new markets quickly with owned technology and positioning, as well as leap to anything lifestyle- or comfort tech-related, giving the brand endless pivot points. 

3. Correction

This is the phase in every industry when it starts to mature, we recognize the players, the field has consolidated and the innovations arrive more slowly. Amazon is in this phase right now; so is Facebook. They’re now a part of everyday life. 

But in every generation, there’s a business that takes the majority of the heat around a given topic, and we wonder if it’s gotten too big. Is it creating a monopoly? Is it capitalizing on an entire market, to consumer detriment? Twenty-five years ago, Microsoft endured those accusations; today, Facebook faces questions about how much data it gathers and how much it influences, from consumer opinion to political elections. 

In some industries, scrutiny can lead to positive change. Over the past couple years, the work conditions of the $36 billion video game industry have been made evident. Once people were able to download games directly to consoles, the very nature of producing a game changed. It’s great for the consumer, but it puts intense strain on staff to constantly develop. 

Fifteen-hour days became common to meet release dates. Developers would hire, fire, hire again and not care what impact that had on company culture. Too focused on constantly meeting deadlines and keeping pace with the competition, this also led to a blind spot regarding harassment in the workplace. 

Gearbox Software, maker of the Borderlands franchise, made its workplace its competitive advantage. CEO Randy Pitchford built a culture based on less turnover, with a stronger focus on the employee. This year, VentureBeat called Pitchford “one of the most impactful and respected video game developers in the world.” Paying extra attention to building the right culture attracts the talent needed to produce and feed the bottom line — particularly without high turnover in a tech-oriented industry.

This could usher in a new era in video games, making the story more important than the graphics. By making the continuity of the team more important than overworking contractors to meet a deadline, Gearbox is offering a needed course correction.

Related: Casper Co-Founder Shares Advice on Finding Success as an Entrepreneur

First movers may get a lot of the glory, but success isn’t restricted to them. Second movers can often see what their industry’s pioneers got wrong and offer an alternative. If the first mover drummed up enough interest, it’s a win-win for everyone, no matter their date of entry.

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[harlanrwiley89]

The Prime Minister Who Cried Brexit (Ep. 392)

David Cameron and his Conservative administration became synonymous with Brexit, but he points out that every other political party in the U.K. has in recent history “supported a referendum on Europe.” (Photo: Kitwood/Getty)

In 2016, David Cameron held a referendum on whether the U.K. should stay in the European Union. A longtime Euroskeptic, he nevertheless led the Remain campaign. So what did Cameron really want? We ask him that and much more — including why he left office as soon as his side lost and what he’d do differently if given another chance. (Hint: not much.)

Listen and subscribe to our podcast at Apple Podcasts, Stitcher, or elsewhere. Below is a transcript of the episode, edited for readability. For more information on the people and ideas in the episode, see the links at the bottom of this post.

*      *      *

Stephen J. DUBNER: You know, there’s research that shows that happy endings are really powerful, that even a bad experience — like going to the dentist or having a colonoscopy — if the last couple minutes is somehow made more pleasant, people remember the entire term as being not so bad. It strikes me that you got that exactly backwards with your political career.

David CAMERON: Well, obviously, as this uncertainty continues, there will be those who say, “Well, you made a promise about having a referendum, you kept that promise,” and that is a credit. But there’ll be those who say, “We shouldn’t have had a referendum, and look what’s followed,” and I accept my share of responsibility for the situation we face. Look, at some stage, this will be resolved. We will either leave with a deal and people will see a sort of certain path for Britain on the outside of the E.U. but with a partnership with it that I believe will be very close. Or, who knows, maybe we’re going to get so stuck we have to go to a general election or a referendum and that might mean a different outcome. One way or the other, this uncertainty has to come to an end. It has gone on already for too long, and I for one can’t wait for it to end.

Today on Freakonomics Radio: the man who many people believe to be singularly responsible for Brexit: David Cameron, former prime minister of the United Kingdom. He explains why he called for the referendum that effectively ended his political career. And he explains the other stressful parts of being prime minister.

CAMERON: It is very intense — very noisy, pretty terrifying.

We get into his relationships with Barack Obama, Angela Merkel, and Vladimir Putin:

CAMERON: I found in the end I just couldn’t trust what he was saying.

All this from a man who, it turns out, loves American football.

CAMERON: Yes, I’m a bit of a cheesehead, actually.

But not, alas, American cheese.

CAMERON: I think it’s one of the very few weaknesses of your great country.

David Cameron has just written one of the most candid political memoirs in recent memory. It’s called For the Record.

CAMERON: Well, the discipline I put on myself was thinking, what did you think then, what do you think now? What decisions do you think you got right, what decisions do you think you’ve got wrong? And look, all memoirs are exercises in self-justification, and I accept there’s quite a lot of self-justification in the book. But I tried to be honest about things that could have gone well, could have gone better.

*      *      *

On June 23, 2016, voters in the United Kingdom — that’s England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland — were asked to vote on a referendum put forward by Prime Minister David Cameron and his Conservative Party. It asked a simple question: “Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?” — the European Union, or E.U., being an economic and political consortium of 28 member states. The outcome of this Brexit vote, as you likely know, has been anything but simple. A couple foundational facts to keep in mind: Cameron was a longtime Euroskeptic, believing that the U.K. contributed much more to the E.U. than it got back. But: he also said he didn’t want the U.K. to actually leave; rather, he wanted to negotiate with the E.U. better terms on trade, regulation, immigration, and so on. So even though it was Cameron who put forth the Brexit referendum, he led the campaign for the U.K. to remain in the E.U., not to leave. The vote was widely expected to go his way — but then it didn’t.

ITV: An extraordinary moment in British history—

BBC: The British people have spoken, and the answer is: we’re out.

The vote was 52-48 percent in favor of leaving.

Channel 4: The immediate economic and political consequences tonight are grave, and the future deeply uncertain.

Those who voted to leave were thrilled:

Channel 4: We’ve got our country back!

But those who wished to remain — younger voters especially, and those concentrated in London, Scotland, and Northern Ireland — they blamed David Cameron. After all, who calls for a referendum, campaigns against it, and then loses? As weird as that was, it instantly got weirder. Cameron had promised to stay on as prime minister whatever the vote’s outcome:

CAMERON (archival): I will do everything I can as prime minister to steady the ship over the coming weeks and months.

But then he didn’t:

CAMERON (archival): But I do not think it would be right for me to try to be the captain that steers our country to its next destination.

His resignation had the whiff of noble intentions, but it wasn’t received that way. It was received as if Cameron were a party guest who’d knocked over a tower of Champagne glasses and then ran for the door. He was replaced as prime minister by Theresa May, his Home Secretary. She began trying to negotiate a sensible exit from the European Union. But no country had ever done that before, and as it turns out:

Nick SMITH: The ayes to the right, 202. The nos to the left, 432.

It was difficult, and complicated.

Theresa MAY: It is clear that the House does not support this deal. But tonight’s vote tells us nothing about what it does support.

Simon COVENEY: You can’t say we’re leaving the single market, the customs union, and the European Union, we’re going to do our own free- trade agreements across the world — and, by the way, you have to allow us seamless access into your market too. Why would the E.U. ever facilitate that?

Jeremy CORBYN: The government has lost control of events and is in complete disarray.

The government had lost control of events and ultimately, Theresa May lost control of the Conservative Party. She had spent three years trying to come up with a workable Brexit strategy, and failed. This past July, May was replaced as prime minister by Boris Johnson, her former Foreign Minister and, before that, the Mayor of London. A few foundational facts to know about Boris Johnson: he and David Cameron are longtime frenemies. They’d gone to the same schools — Eton and Oxford; they ran in the same political circles; and they seemed to irritate and snipe at each other in equal measure.

CAMERON (archival): If any other politician anywhere in the world got stuck on a zipwire, it would be, you know, disastrous. But for Boris, it will be an absolute triumph.

Boris JOHNSON: I was pleased to see that you’ve called me a blond-haired mop in the pages. Well if I’m a mop, Dave, then you are a broom.

During the referendum campaign, Johnson, unlike Cameron, was in favor of Britain leaving the E.U. — although, as Cameron writes about Johnson in his book, “He seemed to have done almost no thinking about what sort of referendum, when it should be held, or what the government’s view should be.” Given Boris Johnson’s reputation for operating with more vigor than rigor, this may well be true — and yet, it is now Johnson’s job to extricate the U.K. from the European Union. The deadline, twice delayed, is currently set for Oct. 31. There may be a “soft” exit from the E.U., with trade and border terms and other details agreed upon in advance; or there may be a “hard” Brexit, with a complete separation from the E.U. — the equivalent of an acrimonious divorce. Either way, Johnson is determined to leave.

JOHNSON: And though I am confident of getting a deal, we will leave by October the 31st, in all circumstances. There will be no further pointless delay.

It’s been very messy — even messier than I’ve made it out to be. There was Boris Johnson’s unlawful suspension of Parliament; investigations into the campaign finances for the Leave campaign; rumors of Russian interference in the referendum vote — all of which have produced a deep reservoir of uncertainty.

Financial Times: So the big question is, what happens next?

MSNBC: Nobody knows what’s next.

Neil DWANE: People just want a decision, are we leaving or are we staying, but let’s just get on with it, because the uncertainty is now killing the economy.

One of the few constants since the vote has been resentment toward the man who pulled the Brexit trigger.

Danny DYER: He called all this on—

And then vanished:

DYER: Where is he? He’s in Europe, in Nice, with his trotters up, yeah? Where is the geezer?

But last week, David Cameron was in New York City.

CAMERON: Thank you. Great to be here.

Over the years, he’s spent a fair amount of time in the States.

CAMERON: I love coming here. It’s the only place where your politics is almost as crazy as our politics at the moment. The difference being that at least in the U.K., you can watch one television channel and find out roughly what’s going on. Here, if I watch Fox, I think the president is doing brilliantly. If I watch CNN, I think he’s about to go to prison.

DUBNER: So I’ve read what you’ve written. I’ve heard what you’ve said. I’ve heard what everyone else has said. People are so angry at you, in some quarters.

CAMERON: Well, you’ve got— I mean, the 52 percent of people who voted to leave the E.U., those people are pleased we had a referendum, are pleased that their voice got across. There are many also on the Remain side, on my side of the argument, who lost, who accept that a referendum was inevitable, or accept that a referendum was mandated by Parliament. I mean, nine out of 10 members of Parliament did actually vote to have a referendum. But I accept there are some people who won’t forgive me for holding a referendum. They didn’t think it was a good idea. And they’re furious that my side of the argument lost.

So how did it come to this? How did a relatively popular prime minister, who seemed to be doing a relatively good job of steadying his country after the global financial crisis — how did he produce such a calamity? To be fair, there were a number of contributing factors, as we’ll hear today: economic pressures within the U.K.; what the U.K. saw as intransigence within the E.U.; even a faraway civil war. But it would be wrong to understate the role of David Cameron himself. He represented a new breed of political leadership in the U.K., especially in the Conservative wing: he was younger than usual, and more chipper, with an optimistic bent and an embrace of what’s come to be called “compassionate conservatism”: sober on the fiscal front but open-minded on social issues like gay marriage and eager to address climate change. On many issues, if he lived in America, he could easily be mistaken for a centrist Democrat.

CAMERON: Well, that’s what Obama always used to say to me, but I used to say, “Please don’t say that publicly.”

Cameron is a political animal, as one must be to thrive in British politics. How does he rate as a thinker? That’s hard to say. He was well-bred, well-reared, well-educated, and he married well too; he is tall, quite handsome, and he has lovely manners. Knowing what we know about cognitive biases, it’s easy to see why he might also be perceived as brilliant, or at least very clever. There’s a telling anecdote in his memoirs, when Cameron is being interviewed by three “badly dressed and disheveled dons” as part of the university-admissions process. “I still shiver at the memory,” he writes. They were asking Cameron which philosophers he’d read; it turned out the answer was “not many.” The three men, he recalls, were “trying to work out whether you were just the product of a good education, or genuinely bright. They were pretty convinced that I was the former.”

Cameron became prime minister of the United Kingdom in 2010. His Conservative Party hadn’t won a clear majority in the election, so it had to form a coalition government with the Liberal Democrats — not a natural fit, at least ideologically, but a workable one, and it was the U.K.’s first coalition government since 1945. That said, it was not the best time to come to power: the global financial crisis was still deepening, casting long shadows in every direction.

CAMERON: Well, Britain— we actually had the biggest. I mean, here we are in New York City, where you were very affected. But actually, the biggest bank bailout was the Royal Bank of Scotland in Britain. I think the longest and deepest recession was ours, because our financial sector was so big. So yes, we were very affected, and I inherited a pretty difficult situation.

DUBNER: So talk about generally, for people who don’t follow it at all — you had to consider austerity, and you enacted some austerity. You also wanted to do a lot of reform in the realm of education, crime-fighting, streamlining the National Health Service. Talk about whether in retrospect you feel that the reforms and cuts were sufficient. There were good outcomes on some dimensions — you got the unemployment rate way, way down. But wage stagnation is still a big problem. And then debt is still very, very high.

CAMERON: Yes, the fundamental point is that when I became prime minister, the deficit forecast was for an 11 percent budget deficit, which would have given us the biggest budget deficit in the world. And by the time I left office, we’d cut that by two-thirds. So we still had a deficit, but it was well under control, and now it’s been virtually eradicated.

DUBNER: But the ratio of debt to G.D.P. is still relatively very high.

CAMERON: It is high, but it would be a lot — if we’d carried on with a 10 or 11 percent budget deficit. And I tried to explain in the book, it’s pretty dry stuff, your debt-to-G.D.P. ratio, but to me it’s a fundamental thing about political responsibility. If you allow the debt-to-G.D.P. ratio to get up towards 100 percent, there’s no capacity left when the next crisis hits. And I don’t believe we’ve abolished boom-and-bust, we’ve abolished the trade cycle. I know there’ll be another crisis at some stage, and you’ve got to have the capacity to deal with it.

Look, we knew that you couldn’t stand aside as financial institutions went to the wall. We’d learnt the lesson of the 1930s — which was, you must recognize the monetary nature of the crisis. But we were very concerned that the budget deficit was out of control, that we had to have a program to bring it back. And we fought the election — very rare for a party to fight an election on the basis of, we’re going to cut spending and we’re going to have to put up some taxes and we’re going to have to make some difficult decisions. But that gave us a sort of window of permission to take these difficult steps.

DUBNER: We should say also, one measure that you improved a lot on — which in this country we have not improved on — is income inequality.

CAMERON: Yes, I— I’m not saying we’ve entirely avoided the sort of Piketty thesis, and what’s gone wrong in America with stagnant wages at the bottom. But we saw huge job growth, and then we also saw — partly because of the changes we made — inequality actually went down rather than up. We did protect the poorest in a number of different ways. For instance, we froze public-sector pay, but we omitted from that freeze the very lowest-paid. We cut taxes for the lowest paid.

DUBNER: So we’re sitting here in 2019. Let’s pretend you were still P.M. You would have been— you’d be a year away from the end of your second term. And let’s pretend that Brexit had never happened.

CAMERON: Or we’d won the referendum, I suppose.

DUBNER: Or you won the referendum. Do you think that your administration would be seen as largely successful?

CAMERON: I think if we had won the referendum — I mean, if you go back to 2014, we were the fastest-growing country in the G7. We had a very good relationship, obviously, with yourselves. The “special relationship.” But we also had very good partnerships with India, with China. We had been ranked the second-greenest government in the world. We had been ranked the most open in terms of information, and we were a very transforming government in terms of digital and online services and the rest of it. I’m not saying we were perfect. Of course we weren’t. There were lots of problems to deal with. Some reforms that didn’t go right.

DUBNER: Name a few.

CAMERON: Well, the health reforms were less successful. I love our National Health Service. I’m a great believer in free health care. But I think our reforms were too much about changing the bureaucracy rather than really focusing on the problems our modern health service faces, which is actually the costs of looking after the elderly, the costs of people with multiple health conditions, and the sort of divide we have in Britain between health care, which is free, and social care which is means-tested. So there are lots of areas we could’ve done better. But it was, I would argue, if you leave Brexit to one side for a second, it was a successful government, economically and in terms of reform.

DUBNER: So it is hard to leave Brexit to one side obviously, because it came to dominate the conversation. The way I assess it, and I may be totally wrong, is that you and your administration were making significant progress in renegotiations with the E.U. — on immigration and regulations, and the power of national governments — but you felt you weren’t making enough progress. And, therefore, it seemed like a good idea to propose a referendum to create more leverage for further renegotiation — while, however, hoping and thinking that the referendum would fail, because then you went out and campaigned for the Remain side. That’s the calculus that for me is difficult to understand.

CAMERON: The calculus was this: that I knew we needed reform of our position in Europe, because of this problem of the changes in the Eurozone. I was hoping that a more general treaty change was coming down the track. And to me, the referendum and the renegotiation went together. You wouldn’t get much renegotiation without a referendum. And I wouldn’t want a referendum on its own, because you’d just be saying, “Do you want in or out on the status quo?” I want to improve on the status quo. So these things did go together.

I think the reforms we achieved, which were carving Britain out of ever-closer union — so for the first time the E.U. was accepting not that we were going to the same destination, but in a slightly slower way, but actually we had a different destination in mind to the rest of Europe. Hugely important. We also fully protected the pound sterling as our currency, recognizing that the euro was the currency of 18 of the 28 members, but it wasn’t for everybody.

DUBNER: I always wondered what England would have been like had you accepted the euro.

CAMERON: Well, I think if we had joined the euro, I’ve got a feeling the whole project might have come badly unstuck by now.

DUBNER: Badly unstuck meaning—

CAMERON: Well, if you go back— there’s an important chapter in the book about when I worked in the Treasury as an adviser when we were in the Exchange Rate Mechanism, which ultimately failed. And that was one of things that taught me, we should stay out of the euro. There are times when economies need different interest rates, different economic policies. And the problem with the euro is easily stated. Here we are in the United States, you’ve got a single currency called the dollar. If Texas has a bad year, it gets more in federal spending, it pays less in taxes, not that Texas ever does have a bad year, of course. We don’t have those fiscal offsets in the European Union.

So I’ve always believed that the euro is problematic, because you’re creating a currency, but without a single banking system, without a fiscal union, without offsets to deal with it. And I’ve always felt it inherently unstable. Had Britain joined it, which I think would have been a disaster for us, I think it probably would’ve been a disaster for the euro as well.

DUBNER: Was the original sin, in your view, in terms of the U.K., having joined the E.U. itself?

CAMERON: No. I believe that Europe is our biggest market and our neighbors and friends. Our relationship with the French and Germans and Italians and others is very, very close. And I’ve always believed—

DUBNER: Not as close today as it was a couple of years ago.

CAMERON: No. But don’t underestimate the sense of partnership and shared endeavor that there is, and that there will be, even when we leave the E.U. If we do so. We will be their closest friend, neighbor, and partner. So I’ve always believed, for Britain, it’s in our interest to be round at the table with the other members of the E.U., making sure that the rules of the market, which is our biggest market, suit us. And making sure that as we deal with Russia, or as we deal with Iran, that we have the leverage of working together and in many cases trying to lead. I’ve always loved that bit of Europe. What I’ve not liked is the sort of pretensions towards statehood that the E.U. has always loved — the flag and the parliament, and all the rest of it. So, like many British prime ministers, I was always sort of battling to stay in the bits that we liked but to try and carve us out a special place.

DUBNER: Well, it doesn’t seem so strange to me that lesser countries would want to feel that sentiment with a bigger union, because you already have it.

CAMERON: Well, there’s that aspect. If you’re a smaller European country, you feel sometimes your power enhanced, because you’re sat around that table. And often sitting round the E.U. table, you notice that the representatives from Malta or Cyprus or whatever, they’re loving it because they’re having— they’re around the big table. There’s that aspect of it.

But there’s another aspect, which is of course, the U.K., we’ve always seen our nationhood as part of the secret sauce of our success. And if we go back to such a crucial moment in British history as May 1940, when the rest of Europe had fallen and Britain was standing alone against Nazi Germany, why that’s so important to our consciousness is, it’s not only a fantastic thing that we did on behalf of humanity, but it was something our nation did. So we’ve not seen our nationhood as a source of trouble or strife or difficulty, we’ve seen it as a part of our success. So that has marked us out a bit, too.

One common critique of David Cameron is that he called for the Brexit referendum because he wanted to settle the so-called Europe question once and for all — to get it out of the way so he could spend his second term as prime minister on other priorities. He’d been re-elected in 2014, to a second five-year term. Going into that election, one poll showed that only eight percent of British voters listed “Europe” as one of the most pressing issues — although that answer doesn’t take into account concerns about immigration, which did feed the appetite for a Brexit vote. So too did Cameron’s austerity policies and public-spending cuts. For his part, Cameron was adamant that a Brexit referendum was just a matter of time. After all, Euroskepticism has deep tendrils in the U.K., going well beyond the Conservative Party.

CAMERON: Yes, of course. I mean, the thing I like reminding people is that, well, sometimes I do it as a quiz — can you name a British political party that didn’t support a referendum?

DUBNER: The answer is, there is none.

CAMERON: There isn’t one. Between 2005 and 2015, the Labor Party, the Liberal Party, the Conservative Party, the Green Party, they all, one stage or another, supported a referendum on Europe. So it was— it’s not just that the Conservatives were interested in this issue. It was an issue running through British politics.

Cameron’s own Euroskepticism dates all the way back to his youthful admiration of Margaret Thatcher, the budget-conscious former Conservative prime minister. Although, as Cameron writes, in a typical case of his have-it-both-wayism, “I had always felt myself more of a Thatcherist than a Thatcherite.” At Oxford, Cameron studied PPE — philosophy, politics, and economics — the gold-standard degree for Britain’s political elite. He went straight into politics, and wound up serving under Chancellor of the Exchequer Norman Lamont in the Treasury Department, just in time to see Lamont forced to pull the flailing British pound out of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism. That, as Cameron noted earlier:

CAMERON: That was one of things that taught me, we should stay out of the euro.

But it was once Cameron had been prime minister for a year-and-a-half that he experienced perhaps his sharpest bout of Euroskepticism. It happened during the so-called Eurozone crisis. Several weaker E.U. economies — Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, and Cyprus — had massive debts or needed bailouts, and the value of the euro was dropping. So it fell to the richer countries, like the U.K., to step up. There was a proposed treaty change to address the crisis; David Cameron vetoed it.

CAMERON: I did veto, and then they went ahead and did the treaty anyway.

European Union treaty changes were supposed to be unanimously approved; in this case, as a workaround, the E.U. instead established an “accord.”

CAMERON: And that was the moment it seemed to me that Britain’s position within this organization was very precarious. And we needed to sort it out. And I believe that, allied to the fact there was growing political pressure to solve this problem, meant that it was inevitable and right to try and renegotiate and hold a referendum and sort things out. But I accept this attempt failed. I mean, in the end, my aim to keep Britain in, but in a special place, wasn’t successful.

DUBNER: Difficult decisions are inherently difficult to predict. You can make a good decision based on all the available logic and information, but you don’t know what the outcome will be. Had you the decision to make again today, whether to put forth a referendum, would you do it again?

CAMERON: Well, what I say in answer that is, I believed at the time that it was inevitable a referendum was coming, and I thought it best therefore to try and effect a renegotiation and improve and deal with these problems at the same time. And I still think that’s the case. So if you go back in time and say, “Could you have done things differently?” — I mean, if I’d put off the referendum, all I would have done was put it off. I mean, it still — it would have landed on maybe my successors.

DUBNER: But there may have been some value for you personally, reputationally. Correct?

CAMERON: My feeling was, what the job of a prime minister is, to try and confront the issues, not just in front of you, but the ones you see coming down the track. Not doing something is also a decision.

After Cameron’s impotent veto of the E.U. treaty but before his eventual call for the Brexit referendum came another referendum, in 2014: the Scottish Nationalist Party wanted Scotland to break away from the U.K., and they wanted to put it to a vote.

CAMERON: Of course, I could have said to them, “No, you’re not having it. Let’s put it off.” But that would have just made the problem worse.

DUBNER: So the Scottish referendum did come up, for independence. It failed. I was curious whether that may have given you and some of your allies a false sense of security that a Brexit referendum would also fail.

CAMERON: It gave me a sense that here was a problem that was coming down the tracks and we confronted it, and that was the right thing to do. So the way I think about it is, you have to try and confront and deal with these issues, and then there are all the decisions around the decision you make. Was it the right campaign? Was it the right renegotiation? Was it the right timing? And I’m pretty frank that I think I probably got some of those wrong. But on the central question, was this problem coming, and was a referendum inevitable? My answer is yes, it was.

*      *      *

Former British Prime Minister David Cameron has just published a memoir, called For the Record. If you identify with the 48 percent of Britons who voted for the U.K. to remain in the European Union, the book may not improve your view of Cameron. But it’s a remarkably interesting account of a remarkably tumultuous era of modern history. It’s also rather direct. Cameron pulls few punches in his descriptions of world leaders — Vladimir Putin, for instance.

CAMERON: Look, I did try to forge a good relationship with him, because in spite of all the disagreements and difficulties, you should make an effort. And there were moments of success. But in the end, when it came to the shooting down of the Malaysian airliner, when it came to what was happening in Syria, when it came to chemical weapons and what Assad had done, who was his ally, I found in the end I just couldn’t trust what he was saying to me as true.

DUBNER: Here’s how you put it in the book: “For Putin, lying is an art form.” Which is, I guess, a left-handed compliment. He was very good at it, at least, yeah?

CAMERON: Well if we take what was happening in Ukraine, where effectively, Russia took a part of a sovereign country. Always trying to claim that it was sort of Ukrainian breakaway forces. But we all knew that they were largely Russian soldiers. He is very good at information war. Modern war is fought not just with tanks and bombs and guns, but with P.R. and media and manipulation—

DUBNER: And cyberattacks as well.

CAMERON: And cyberattacks. That was something the Russians got very good at, and frankly, we need to raise our game at it.

DUBNER: Now, Germany — Angela Merkel you seem to hold in very, very high regard.

CAMERON: Yes. I mean, she is a remarkable politician, also, with huge staying power. I mean, I remember watching her back in 2006, I think it was, when she first sort of fought her campaign and became chancellor and here we are in 2019 and she’s still there.

DUBNER: Well, just barely, I mean—

CAMERON: Barely, but still—

DUBNER: I get the sense from reading your book that she very much empathized with your desire to disentangle the U.K. from the E.U. And I wondered if she was a closet Brexit fan, and maybe even a Gerxit fan — would she, given the opportunity—

CAMERON: No, no, no. Look, I would phrase it differently. She didn’t want Britain to disentangle itself from the E.U. But I think she did have an understanding that Britain was quite a Euroskeptic nation, that we were in the E.U. for the things that we wanted, the trade and cooperation, but we didn’t want deeper political union. She did understand that. You can argue that she didn’t do enough to help us with that.

DUBNER: What should she have done, or could she have done?

CAMERON: Well, I think she did help, and we cut the budget together. That was important. We were cutting budgets at home and it would have been outrageous to just keep spending more in the E.U. She did help with my renegotiation. But I think we came up against this problem, which was, the free movement of people in Europe is a good thing. Millions of British people go and live and work in other European countries. But what was originally the free movement of workers became the free movement for everybody.

DUBNER: Well. Let me ask you about — this is a complicated conversation, but let’s try to have a quick version of it. Merkel, one could say, was brought down primarily by her generosity in accepting refugees. Yes? Primarily.

CAMERON: Look, I think she made a mistake. Because I’m all for showing generosity. We actually went out to the camps and brought people back from the camps and gave them the right to live in Britain, and educated their children and housed them and clothed them and fed them. And I think that’s the right answer.

I think the wrong answer is what Germany did, which was just to say, “All who can make it are welcome.” It was a green light to the people smugglers to just keep going with their work. And I felt that Europe handled this issue very badly. You’ve got to demonstrate, look, we all know that border control is only one aspect of a sensible immigration policy. But you do need to have borders, particularly if you’ve taken down the internal borders between France and Italy and all the rest of it — if you take down the internal borders, you do need a strong external border. So, I thought big mistakes were made.

DUBNER: Well, let’s unpack that, going back to Syria. Because you write incredibly about your desire to get involved in Syria, to retaliate or to stop Assad. You write about your conversations with Obama, which led you to believe that America would lead the strike. And then you write this — it’s hard to believe, I read it three times, it was so hard to believe that it was true. That you called Obama to help finalize the plan. And he didn’t return the call for four days.

CAMERON: Well, this was after— there’s sort of two Syria chapters, and two Syria, sort of, things to focus on. One is the appalling civil war and events that have taken place. And the question, could America and Britain and others, could we have done more to try and help resolve this crisis? And I believe we could have done. Then there’s a second question, which is, on the use of chemical weapons, where Barack Obama rightly said it was a red line, why was it that we failed to respond to that red line?

And while I make the point that after it happened, it took too long for us to speak, the real mistake we made was that when we drew the red line, and we discussed it sometime before the chemical-weapons attack took place, and we were at the G8 in Northern Ireland, we should have agreed at that moment, “Right, we’re setting a red line, if he uses chemical weapons, here’s what we’re going to do.” And if we’d agreed it, we could have taken instant action before having a sort of parliamentary and U.N. debate and all the rest of it. I blame myself as much for that as Barack, because we — I could have made that argument, and I should’ve made that argument.

DUBNER: Were you each waiting for the other to take the lead?

CAMERON: No, it was — and he would say this too, I hope — we were both operating in the sort of post-Iraq world. And President Obama was very much elected on the basis of, let’s try and end some of these entanglements, and make sense of them. In Britain, we had lost a lot of people in Iraq. We were operating in an environment where the public and Parliament was deeply skeptical about getting involved in these entanglements. I just thought the chemical weapons issue was different. Apart from Saddam Hussein at Halabja, chemical weapons hadn’t been sort of used on the battlefield for decades. And there was a taboo about it, and there was international rules about it. And I thought we’d have been totally justified to say, this is a red line. The red line’s crossed, bang.

DUBNER: But by the time Obama then reappeared or reconnected with you, you had had a vote in your Parliament, correct?

CAMERON: We reconnected before the vote in my Parliament, but because we hadn’t prior-agreed the actions, I got onto a track of having to take it to Parliament. And then I made one of these sort of miscalculations, and I thought that others like me would be so shocked by the use of chemical weapons and would sufficiently separate it from the other foreign-policy issues. But actually people in my own party, in my own caucus as you would say, a lot of them said, “I’m voting against this action because of what happened in Iraq.” And I was saying, “But this isn’t Iraq, this is chemical weapons, this is Syria.” This is, you know — but I didn’t convince enough of them, and I lost the vote in Parliament, which was a very bad thing to do.

DUBNER: So when we look at foreign policy, we know that economic sanctions don’t often work the way they’re supposed to. We know that military intervention is costly on many, many, many, many dimensions. But can you talk for a minute about the cost, in the case of Syria, of non-intervention?

CAMERON: I think what’s so hideous about the Syrian conflict is, there were so many bad effects from it. Obviously, predominantly, the appalling suffering of the Syrian people, and the civil war that has gone on for so many years. But it also helped to spawn the growth of ISIS. It also created the background to the refugee crisis that has caused so much human suffering, and possibly, you could argue, led to some of the problems in Europe, perhaps even Brexit itself.

How much, if at all, did the Syrian war and the resulting refugee crisis contribute to the demand for Brexit? That is very hard to say. And there were, of course, plenty of other economic factors already pushing the U.K. in that direction. But it’s a compelling argument. The Leave campaign certainly took advantage of anxieties over immigration. As Cameron noted earlier, the free movement of people is written into the European Union treaties, and it gives the citizens of any member state the right to move and live in any other member state without needing a permit. This provision was a major target of Cameron’s renegotiations with the E.U. before he called the Brexit referendum.

CAMERON: To the E.U., free movement and not reforming it was something of an article of faith. And I couldn’t persuade them that we needed some reforms to free movement. So in fact, what I did in the end was I persuaded them to accept something which was difficult for them, which was that new arrivals to Britain couldn’t access our welfare system for up to four years, which was a huge give for them. And a great gain for me. But in the end it didn’t quite take the trick in the referendum that I needed.

DUBNER: There was an economic analysis of migrants done after the referendum, which showed that European migrants to the U.K. produced more gains for the U.K. economy than the standard existing British citizen. So people were coming to Britain because the British economy was doing well.

CAMERON: And they were coming to work, and that was great. There were two problems I’d mention. One is, when Poland and the other seven Eastern European countries joined the E.U. back in 2004, the U.K. government said, “We expect about 14,000 people to come and live and work in Britain.” And in the event, it was actually more like a million people came. So that had created a sense amongst the British people that the politicians just didn’t have a good handle on the numbers, and that created a worry.

The second thing was, that yes, these people were coming to live and work in Britain and contribute and pay taxes. But the way our welfare system worked meant that a new arrival could actually claim up to £14,000, sort of $20,000, in their first year, in terms of tax credits. This was an issue. And I thought that my negotiating the welfare side of it would really help. And it helped a bit. But it wasn’t direct enough at sort of demonstrating a control of the numbers.

DUBNER: You love and were petrified by, at the same time, Prime Minister’s Questions.

CAMERON: Yeah.

DUBNER: Maybe you could just in a sentence or two explain what this tradition is.

CAMERON: What happens is, every Wednesday at 12 o’clock, the prime minister turns up to the House of Commons and you take questions from everybody for half an hour. You don’t know what you’re going to be asked. The leader of the opposition gets six questions at you. And because our House of Commons is small — it was bombed in the war, and Churchill rebuilt it on exactly the same size, where you can’t actually fit all the people in. And he did that because he said he liked it being small because it made it an exciting cockpit of debate, and that’s true. So for that reason, it is very intense — very noisy, pretty terrifying. And you can get caught out. So you can go from a triumphant, brilliant, off-the-cuff or previously planned answer:

CAMERON at P.M.Q.s: And for the first time in a long time, the number of doctors is growing very quickly, and the number of bureaucrats is actually falling.

CAMERON: To really screwing up and failing to remember the right fact or figure.

Ed MILIBAND: Mr. Speaker, in case the prime minister didn’t realize, it takes seven years to train a doctor. So I’d like to thank him for his congratulations for our record on the N.H.S.

CAMERON: While it is terrifying, there’s a purpose to it, and that is that because you know it’s coming, it’s a great moment of accountability, where the prime minister’s tentacles have got to get all over Whitehall and the government machine and know the answer to every question. And it’s often a time where you find out some of your own government’s policies and you realize they’re not the ones you thought they were, and you change things.

DUBNER: So let me just devil’s-advocate this for a moment. I love Prime Minister’s Questions, I’ve been a few times. It’s a thrilling exhibit of democracy, which is what it’s supposed to be. On the other hand, if we think about it economically, you think about opportunity costs. So you’re getting your first round of prep on Monday, along with all your other work. Then some more on Tuesday, then Wednesday is really devoted to it. Then afterwards it sounds so draining that you have to go have some roast beef and red wine immediately after to refortify yourself.

CAMERON: It takes up a lot of time. I think really it takes up Wednesday morning, is very intense preparation. The rest of the time you’re perfectly capable of doing other things. And don’t underestimate — if you didn’t have this, you’d have to find some other way of absolutely mugging up on every different aspect of what the government’s doing. So I find it quite useful as a sort of accountability mechanism. But it is— look, it is more theater than reality.

DUBNER: But let me ask you — and I mean, I really do admire the fact that every week, the leader of the country stands up before the Parliament. We don’t have that. We have nothing like that, and I think it would be—

CAMERON: Obama once said to me, “I’m thinking of doing something like that.” So it was, “Just hold on a second before you dive in. You might want to think about this.” But no, there’s a justification for it.

DUBNER: Okay, let me again be pure devil’s advocate for a moment and say this. One thing that many in your country, especially from the educated class, like yourself — Eton, Oxford, and all the Oxbridge universe — one thing that you’re particularly good at is talking, which we underestimate as a skill. But it’s a very effective skill. P.M.Q.’s are in a way a pure demonstration of how well you all speak about the issues, about disagreements, so on. So let’s put that in the pro column. In the con column, however — I believe it’s in your book — a saying that goes back a ways in, to the military setting, that amateurs strategize, and professionals execute.

CAMERON: Yeah, I used the phrase that — one of my generals said, yeah, amateurs talk tactics, professionals talk logistics. And no, I think your critique is a good one. I would argue that good leaders have to be good teachers. You have to take the country with you, you have to keep explaining. And Prime Minister’s Questions can be — it is a time when you’re trying to explain, you’re trying to set out your course of what you’re doing. And looking back, I wish we’d done more of that. Just trying to explain. Whether you’re reforming schools or you’re intervening in Libya or you’re trying to win a referendum on Brexit, just communicate, communicate. One thing we don’t have that you have is that State of the Nation moment. I find sometimes — I find this a bit frustrating, that too much of our politics is very confrontational, and you know, in that sort of cockpit of combat.

DUBNER: But you’re confronting each other in person, which is a totally different dynamic than sniping in the press. I mean, you do a lot of that, too.

CAMERON: So I know— what I’m saying is, your critique has got some fairness to it. But don’t underestimate the importance of the communicating part of politics, it does matter. On the part of politics which is actually delivering change and making things happen, and the importance of logistics, I completely agree that I don’t think there’s enough attention to that in most governments. I joke in the book that early on as prime minister, someone asked me, “What’s the job?“ And I said, “Well, there’s two jobs: first we’ve got to find out what the government’s doing, and second, you’ve got to stop it,” because it’s an enormous machine that you’re running.

I’m a huge fan of the British civil service, but if I had a criticism, it’s that they are great at developing policy but not so good at implementing policy. In schools of government, in training of politicians and civil servants, in thinking about these things, we need to spend a lot more time on how to get things done rather than how to develop a policy.

DUBNER: It’s something we talk about on the show a lot. So in the medical field, for instance, innovations happen in medicine all the time, but they take on average about 12 years to work their way in. So government, I can understand why that’s difficult. In the real world, however, what do you see as ways to shorten that lag between good ideas and implementation?

CAMERON: Let me give you one example, which shows all the things we’ve been talking about. I became obsessed by the power of genomics to try and get to the answer of rare childhood diseases and cancer and other things. I said, “Right, let’s be the first government in the world to sequence 100,000 genomes.” And the officials all said, “That’s a great idea, Prime Minister, we’re going to do that.” Six months later, I say, “How is my 100,000-genomes project going?” And literally nothing had happened. Lots of people sat around and talked about it, and then we set up a company. And now as we sit here today, more than 100,000 genomes have been sequenced. Britain is still leading the world, we are now heading for a million sequenced—

DUBNER: Is this an argument for the private sector providing the proper incentives?

CAMERON: Where I’m going to is, A, sometimes you think you’ve done something in government, but nothing happens. B, you have to drive change by going back and back and back and checking. But C, where I was going to, is actually I think genomics is a good example of how we must get new clinical discoveries into clinical practice faster. And I suspect we can because of the way we can change education modules, the way that we can educate people online, the way that doctors can share research, etc. It must be possible.

DUBNER: We should say, your personal connection to this story is your son Ivan, your firstborn son, who died at age 6, yes?

CAMERON: Yes, that’s right. And he had a rare— he had Ohtahara syndrome, which was a rare childhood disease, which meant that he had — he was quadriplegic, he couldn’t move his arms and legs, he had terrible epileptic seizures. This was one of the things that sparked my interest in genomics, because when he was born, it was very, very tough, and— rewarding, looking after someone like that, but very, very tough. And interestingly, when we sort of asked the doctor, “Wan we have other children, what will happen?” And back then, genetic counseling was, “Well, it could be genetic, in which case, one in four, it might not be, it which case, one in—”

DUBNER: It’s remarkable, it wasn’t that long ago.

CAMERON: This was — exactly. They gave us a blended probability of one in twenty. And luckily I’ve had three healthy children since then.

DUBNER: Has there since been a better test for Ohtahara in utero?

CAMERON: Interestingly, one of the breakthroughs from genome sequencing has been in some cases discovering children with Ohtahara syndrome much faster. And I think in some cases, actually some changes in diet and vitamins has led to some better outcomes. But like all these things, when people say Ohtahara syndrome, what they really mean is, it’s a description of the symptoms. We still don’t know some of the underlying causes.

DUBNER: I was always curious why you named him Ivan. It’s not a common name in Britain.

CAMERON: No! I can’t— my wife liked it. I took the view that she was the one who had the children, and I always used to argue my corner on names, but on the whole, she’d win these battles.

DUBNER: Let’s get back to Brexit for just a moment. As we speak, it’s the 27th of September. A lot of things are going to happen in the next month, including a Conservative Party conference. And then theoretically the Brexit deadline. It’s impossible to predict the future. But if I asked you to give me a high-certainty prediction of something that you definitely think probably will or probably will not happen. And really, I’m mostly interested in what you think happens for Britain economically.

CAMERON: It is too difficult to make an absolutely categorical prediction about what will happen next. The best you can do is sort of attach some probabilities for what might happen next. What I want to happen is for the prime minister to go to Brussels and negotiate a deal and for that deal to go through, so we leave on the basis of a deal. There’s a good chance of that happening, but I can’t absolutely for certain say it will happen.

DUBNER: Are you speaking with Boris regularly now?

CAMERON: We have texted a little bit.

DUBNER: He asks for advice?

CAMERON: Not so much. I mean — I want to do everything I can. That is the right thing to do. But of course, if that doesn’t happen, you want a range of other possibilities from a no-deal Brexit, which I hope won’t happen, it looks like Parliament has closed that option off. And then you get into general elections or potentially second referendums to unblock this situation. So I’m afraid, and I hate to say this, it is a period of great uncertainty.

DUBNER: All right, final question: do you harbor fantasies that someday the average Briton will look at you as the man who saved the U.K. on some dimension, who salvaged its independence?

CAMERON: I don’t harbor any fantasies about almost anything. I hope people will take a sort of balanced view and say that important changes were made in terms of our economy that strengthened it. Important social changes were made. So I hope people will look across the record. But obviously until the Brexit uncertainty is ended, that’s going to be a very big question. But look, you don’t get to write your own legacy. Historians do that. I’ve written a book to try to explain my perspectives, and I hope people will say that it’s a frank and reasonable effort, and some important things change for the better. But there are lots of challenges still to answer.

DUBNER: I thank you for writing it. I thank you for speaking, and I feel we need to let you go see the rest of America now, but thanks for stopping in.

CAMERON: Great pleasure. Thanks.

*      *      *

Freakonomics Radio is produced by Stitcher and Dubner Productions. This episode was produced by Daphne Chen. Our staff also includes Alison Craiglow, Matt Hickey, Harry Huggins, Zack Lapinski, Greg Rippin, and Corinne Wallace. Our theme song is “Mr. Fortune,” by the Hitchhikers; all the other music was composed by Luis Guerra. You can subscribe to Freakonomics Radio on Apple Podcasts, Stitcher, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Here’s where you can learn more about the people and ideas in this episode:

SOURCES

David Cameron, former prime minister of the United Kingdom.

EXTRAS

For the Record, by David Cameron.

The post The Prime Minister Who Cried Brexit (Ep. 392) appeared first on Freakonomics.

from Dental Care Tips http://freakonomics.com/podcast/david-cameron/

[digitalmark18-blog]

How to Make the Most of a Seasonal Job

New Post has been published on https://britishdigitalmarketingnews.com/how-to-make-the-most-of-a-seasonal-job/

How to Make the Most of a Seasonal Job

It feels unnatural to see Halloween candy advertised in August and Christmas decorations for sale in September. But holiday creep makes perfect sense in the retail, hospitality and logistics industries, which need to prepare in advance to conduct big business in the fourth quarter of the year. By the onset of autumn, companies in these fields have already started hiring extra employees to work in November, December and January.

While anyone can take advantage of seasonal part-time jobs, a few types of people in particular stand to benefit especially from them. Students on winter break who need extra cash or want to gain some work experience are prime contenders for these positions. Gig workers who take temporary roles all year long may find abundant opportunities for boosting their incomes during the holidays.

Perhaps most importantly, high demand for seasonal workers shifts odds in favor of “the unemployed person that’s had a hard time getting a job,” says Carisa Miklusak, CEO of Tilr, a platform that connects workers with gig jobs. “Companies need a lot of people and they don’t have time to be so specific” with their hiring criteria.

More than just money, seasonal jobs offer students and unemployed people valuable work experience that helps them land full-time positions in the future.

“It’s very often an entry point for a permanent position,” says Dan McMackin, public relations manager for UPS.

Here’s how to find and make the most of holiday job openings.

[See: 6 Side Jobs to Make Extra Money.]

Finding Seasonal Jobs

To handle the year-end crush of customers, the retail industry has traditionally relied on seasonal workers to swell the ranks of salespeople and customer service representatives. This remains the case, but increased e-commerce has also created seasonal employment needs in warehouses and fulfillment centers that process customer’s orders, says Evan Armstrong, vice president of government affairs for the Retail Industry Leaders Association.

The rise in online shopping has also increased demand for labor at logistics and shipping companies that deliver all those packages to customers – and return unwanted merchandise after the holidays. For example, in 2018, UPS plans to hire 100,000 additional workers for the winter holiday season, McMackin says. They’ll mainly fill three roles: package handler, driver and driver helper.

Many families celebrate the winter holidays by eating in restaurants, staying in hotels and traveling to vacation destinations like ski resorts. That means hospitality companies require more hands on deck to serve clients.

Many companies outside of these sectors also hire extra help in the last few months of the year. Some need additional workers to meet deadlines to launch new products or campaigns in the new year, while others are short-staffed because permanent employees are using up their annual vacation days, Miklusak says.

Companies hire for seasonal jobs from mid-summer to mid-fall using a variety of methods. Some send recruiters to job fairs, others host mass-hiring days at store locations and still others accept applications on their websites.

[See: 16 Low-Stress Jobs.]

Taking Advantage of Benefits

In a strong economy, companies are willing to invest in employment, even boosting benefits for temporary seasonal workers.

“They’re offering higher wages, 401(k)s and paid time off to get these folks into the door,” says Ana Serafin Smith, senior director of media relations at National Retail Federation.

Employee discounts are one benefit of holiday jobs, but more substantial advantages come in the form of training opportunities. Companies may teach seasonal workers new skills such as customer service, merchandise management, inventory analysis, running a cash register, loss and theft prevention and managing other employees.

Workers may even earn certificates through their training programs.

“If your time ends as a seasonal employee at that retailer, you may be able to use that certification for any other retailer or even in another sector to find that next job,” Smith says.

[See: Best Business Jobs.]

Getting Hired Full Time

People who discover an affinity for their holiday jobs can convert those temporary positions into entry-level roles and, eventually, entire careers.

“Very often there’s a percentage of seasonal workers that fall in love with the job, the employer falls in love with them and they’re offered a full-time job,” Miklusak says.

That’s true at UPS, where about 35 percent of seasonal hires come back after the season, McMackin says. The company’s CEO and other members of its senior executive team started out as part-time workers.

“It is definitely a foot in the door, a stepping stone for a career,” he explains.

To turn a holiday job into a full-time role, make a good impression and excel at your responsibilities. At UPS, that means being unfailingly punctual and showing a desire to serve others.

“You have to have a discernible work ethic,” McMackin says.

Then, before a seasonal job ends, tell the supervisor you’d like to come back as an employee in the future and submit your resume for open jobs that match your skills.

“There’s always a list developed in each work area of people who shine,” McMackin says. “We will definitely reach out to them.”

The Most Important Allies to Make at Work

Recruit co-workers to your team.

(Getty Images)

Making friends in your office, while personally enjoyable, is optional. But to get ahead in your career, making allies at work is essential.

That doesn’t just mean getting on your boss’s good side. In fact, some of the most important people to recruit to your “team” are colleagues lower in the organizational hierarchy who nevertheless have important information about or wield influence within the company.

In the modern multigenerational office, it may take time and practice to learn how to work well with colleagues of all ages and all levels of responsibility. Read on to find out how to build strong alliances in the office.

How to be an ally in the office

How to be an ally in the office

(Caiaimage/Tom Merton/Getty Images)

Remember, nobody likes a suck up. Building alliances requires genuine interest in your co-workers’ responsibilities and challenges. “When you become helpful and useful and valuable to people, that’s when you start forming those relationships,” says Bianca Jackson, a career branding consultant.

If you notice someone struggling with a work problem, ask if they’d be interested in your assistance and then do what you can to help them accomplish their goals. That will distinguish you as a “problem-solver” who others will come to rely on, Jackson says.

These are the six allies to make in your office:

IT expert

IT expert

(Getty Images)

They fix our computers, recover our passwords and keep our Wi-Fi running. That makes information technology professionals the “unsung heroes” of modern offices, says Amy Kardel, chair of the board of directors of the Computing Technology Industry Association.

Allying with IT experts is important because “we’re all being asked to do things better and faster, and IT is a lever to do that,” Kardel says. “Having the best tools and proactive ideas from your IT team can help you be a better worker.”

To be an ally to your colleagues in the IT department, remember that they are trying to enable you to meet your work goals. Share as much information as you can to help them troubleshoot technology problems, Kardel says.

And remember to thank them for their assistance, she suggests, because “your comments can be a valuable reminder that they’re making a difference.”

The receptionist

The receptionist

(Getty Images)

It’s easy to overlook the office receptionist as someone who simply orders food and schedules meetings. But “this is the person who interacts most with the higher-ups in the department,” Jackson says.

That gives administrative assistants access to important information. It also positions them to potentially influence powerful managers and executives.

For example, when Jackson was first interning for a company, she exchanged friendly greetings with the administrative assistant each day. That person endorsed Jackson when the vice president mentioned wanting to lay off the interns, and as a result, the company kept Jackson on staff.

Your boss

Your boss

(Getty Images)

It should come as no surprise that, “if you can, you want to make sure your boss likes you,” Jackson says. This person has a lot of power over whether you get a promotion or a raise and how pleasant your daily office environment is.

To please this potential ally, anticipate your boss’s needs rather than waiting for instructions, don’t raise complaints without offering solutions and pay attention to subtle communication clues she offers about what she wants, like coming by your desk to talk and using signal phrases such as “should” and “stretch opportunity.”

If you’ve failed to meet expectations, regain your boss’s trust by explaining how you’re going to improve in the future and then following through on your promises.

The influencer

The influencer

(Getty Images)

Sometimes your boss doesn’t have the power to help you advance in your company. In that case, Jackson says, “it’s good to get friendly with the people who know the most information and have the most influence.”

An influencer could be a vice president, senior manager or seasoned employee.

“It’s someone everyone respects, and as soon as they start talking, everyone is quiet,” Jackson says.

These co-workers often have high levels of responsibility and face a lot of pressure. Win them over by helping them succeed. Offer to pitch in on their projects and then exceed their expectations.

The intern

The intern

(Getty Images)

It may not seem worth your effort to get on good terms with the office intern. After all, she will only be around temporarily.

But that makes her a great person to add to your network. If you make her an ally, she’ll take her good impression of you to her next company, which could lead to future employment opportunities for you there.

Consider acting as a mentor to office interns. Talk with them about their goals, invite them to shadow you as you do your work and encourage them to ask you questions when they need help.

Your mentor

Your mentor

(Getty Images)

It’s important to find your own mentor at work, too. This person will hopefully act as a confidant and guide as you navigate office politics and make career decisions.

To identify potential mentors, look for colleagues who have skills and responsibilities you want to acquire and whose job trajectories you admire. It’s important to pick someone trustworthy whose temperament is compatible with yours.

Be straightforward when you ask for their mentorship. If you’re nervous to make the request, remember that many people are flattered to be asked for their advice.

Source: https://money.usnews.com/careers/articles/2018-10-01/how-to-make-the-most-of-a-seasonal-job

[thrashermaxey]

Ramblings: Training Camp Notes; Karlsson Traded; Rankings! – September 14

  Well, given all the goings on in the last week, there has been some updates to the 2018-19 Dobber Hockey fantasy guide over the last week. If you have a copy already, be sure to grab the latest updates. If you don’t have your copy, no better time than now!

*

A few items from training camp yesterday.

It looks like Tyler Ennis will get first crack a line with Auston Matthews and William Nylander. As always, this is the first day of camp and subject to change. He’ll have fantasy relevance if he can remain there for any length of time and will be fantasy irrelevant if he doesn’t. My bet is on the latter.

Tyler Bertuzzi was skating on a line with Dylan Larkin and Anthony Mantha for Detroit while a kid line was assembled of Filip Zadina, Joe Veleno, and Michael Rasmussen. Notable here: Zadina was not skating with one of the team’s top two centres. He’ll have to play his way there and given the track record of usage from Detroit rookies be it under Blashill or Babcock (Larkin notwithstanding), that’s a concern.

Victor Rask is out indefinitely after undergoing hand surgery for an accident in his home. Rask was one of the players used on the top PP unit last year with the top line, as had Elias Lindholm. Does this open the door for Svechnikov?

J-G Pageau was injured during physical tests but the nature and severity of the injury is unknown. An update will be provided Friday.

It looks like Paul Byron is good to go for the Habs while Andrew Shaw is still possible to start the year on time.

No further concrete update on Gabe Vilardi as the Kings say he’s still week-to-week.

*

Speaking of the Sens… my take on the fantasy impacts of Erik Karlsson being traded to San Jose yesterday.

Beyond what I wrote there, it’ll be hard to see how much fantasy value there will be on this roster post-trade deadline and next year. Both Matt Duchene and Mark Stone are probably going to be gone. Once they’re traded, the roster will not look much better than the Sabres rosters of a few years ago. Keep that in mind if you’re in head-to-head leagues and thinking about grabbing guys like Bobby Ryan or Thomas Chabot. Assuming both Duchene and Stone are traded, this roster is going to be an utter wasteland in March of 2019 and the entire 2019-20 season.

*

Dallas announced a long-awaited extension as Tyler Seguin earned an extra eight years with an AAV just under $10-million. He is now signed through his age-35 season.

Seguin was set to be a UFA after 2018-19.

The initial inclination is to scream overpay here, but this is what he’s done in Dallas over the last five years (from Hockey Reference):

At least 70 points every season, 1 of 3 players to do so (Sidney Crosby and Nicklas Backstrom)

173 goals, third-most in the league

211 assists, one fewer than John Tavares

384 points, tied with Backstrom for sixth-most in the league

Coming up next year as a UFA at the age of 27, he was going to get a barrel of money, and he’s earned every penny. All that’s left now is playoff success in Dallas.

Whether he’s worth it or not in cap leagues, I’ll leave that to Alex MacLean.

*

I’ve finally published my rankings. A little later than I wanted but we’re done.

The rankings below were published at Fantasy Pros. A few notes on that:

These are based on Yahoo! standard leagues, which means goals, assists, PPPs, shots, hits, and plus/minus.

There are some players here with different eligibility than from Yahoo!. Nathan MacKinnon is C/RW on FantasyPros, for example. I did my best to account for them.

You should be able to view overall as well as by position.

Here you are:

2018 Fantasy Hockey Rankings powered by FantasyProsECR ™ – Expert Consensus Rankings ADP – Average Draft Position

    Now, before people get angry, I want to clear up some thing about these rankings:

These are going to be tinkered with, namely the overall rankings and where everyone fits together. The positional ranking is more accurate at the moment. 

I still haven’t gotten to my goalies. Don’t worry about those rankings. I’ll get to those on the weekend.

A lot of roles are still undefined. For example: I have Tyler Bertuzzi on the third line in Detroit when it looks like he might be on the top line; Justin Faulk is still slotted as PP1 for Carolina; Kailer Yamamoto is in my projection as playing half the season with Connor McDavid and one-quarter of the season with Leon Draisaitl. There are a lot of players whose rankings could change significantly in the next few weeks depending on news coming out of training camps and exhibition games.

I adjusted post-Karlsson trade but still have to work a few things out. Namely, I'm just waiting for defence pairs and PP combinations. Someone like Vlasic could get a big boost. 

I have largely ignored plus/minus. Heavily-used defencemen on what should be bad teams –Rasmus Ristolainen, Nick Leddy, Alex Edler, to name a few – moved down the rankings a lot because of a likely significant negative in the plus/minus column. Other than that, they haven’t been considered for players. I do this because it’s a largely random stat. Think of it this way: Anze Kopitar (+21 last year) played roughly two-thirds of his 5v5 minutes with Alex Iafallo (+10) and roughly three-quarters of his 5v5 minutes with Dustin Brown (+31). Look at the spread in plus/minus between Brown and Iafallo, who spent most of their minutes with Kopitar. I just find it a waste of time.

As I mentioned in my rankings on Tuesday, I take positional scarcity into account based on 12-team leagues starting 3LW/3C/3RW/5D/UTIL. Different positions should have different expectations. For example, the top-50 right wingers in my data set project for 1115.43 goals while the top-50 left wingers project for 1149.53 That makes one goal from a left winger worth a little over 1.03 goals from a right winger. It’s a small difference, but when you consider your wingers could score hundreds of goals, and then you account for small differences in every other category, it starts to add up. So, all stats equal, a right winger is more valuable than a left winger and a left winger is more valuable than a centre. Elite-tier defencemen are also more valuable than they’re given credit for given the mediocrity of the middle tier (shout out to Laidlaw). That’s why wingers will rank higher in my rankings than those of some other people.

I haven’t tiered these yet. I will tier these eventually.

These are adjusted for age, so guys on the wrong side of 30 are going to take a hit while guys in their prime (22-27) will shine.

Power play points can change a lot for a lot of players. Example: Dylan Larkin is projected just outside my top-200 players. The reason for that is his PP production for his career has been abysmal, posting 20 PPPs in 242 games (seriously), and that’s with 150+ PP minutes in each season to date. Were he to manage, say, 20 PPPs in 2018-19, that moves him just outside the top-100 players. Same with Connor McDavid; if that Oilers PP turns itself around and McDavid reaches his PP potential, he’s number-1 in my rankings, even when considering positional scarcity.

With all that out of the way, let’s talk about some of these guys.

One thing I want to focus on is players that I’ve ranked higher or lower than the consensus on Fantasy Pros. There aren’t a lot of guys whose rankings are posted yet, but it should give you a good idea of who I’m personally high and low on.

  Higher Than Consensus

Vladimir Tarasenko

All summer I’ve been saying that Tarasenko will be undervalued going into 2018-19 and it appears this is the case. The underlying issue, of course, is whether his shoulder is completely healthy following surgery in April. Think of it this way: last year was a down year for Tarasenko, I think most people would agree on that. In standard Yahoo! setups, he was still a top-30 player. If you can draft him in the late second or early third round, do it.

  Vincent Trocheck

Even if you’re someone who thinks that Trocheck could regress by 10 points or so this year, his ability to contribute across the board should be coveted. The year before, he was a top-75 player with just 54 points and a minus-13 rating because of his power play points, hits, and shots. If he’s healthy, he’s not losing his role with Florida. I’d be fine with drafting him in the third round but you can probably get him in the sixth.

  Joe Pavelski

It was just a year ago I was saying that Pavelski was overvalued. Now I think he’s undervalued. Crazy the difference a year can make.

If Joe Thornton can be anywhere near as healthy and productive as he was a couple years ago before the knee injuries cropped up, Pavelski has 25 goals and 35 assists locked up. He probably does even if Thornton isn’t healthy thanks to the additions of Evander Kane and Erik Karlsson. Pavelski adds loads of hits and shots, which is why he’s valuable for me.

  Kyle Palmieri and Nico Hischier

Even if he’s not on the top line, Palmieri’s PP points, hits, and shots make him very valuable. With just 44 points in an injury-shortened season last year, he returned ninth-round value. He’ll be available in that round or later.

I truly believe Hischier is a superstar in the making and he has the MVP of the NHL on his left wing. With additional PP minutes coming his way, I think when April rolls around, people are going to wonder how they passed on him this year.

  Colton Parayko

A 30-point defenceman who can put up the peripherals that Parayko can is valuable. That’s what made Ivan Provorov so valuable last year (though he was a 40-point guy). Parayko still hasn’t hit his ceiling fantasy-wise and maybe never will with Pietrangelo around. He can still be a 40-point defenceman though, especially with that revamped St. Louis offence.

  Lower Than Consensus

Mitch Marner

Marner is on the precipice of being an elite playmaker and a superstar in this league. The issue is that he doesn’t provide much in hits and isn’t a huge shot volume guy. He does shoot a fair amount, but not to the level of guys like David Pastrnak or Rickard Rakell. I have him projected for 75 points but without huge shot volume or hits, he’ll be hard-pressed to return third-round value.

  Nikolaj Ehlers

Let’s get this out of the way: Ehlers is truly one of my favourite players to watch in the league. If he picks up the puck in his zone and gets up to full speed, there’s almost no one more fun. That said, like Marner, he doesn’t hit much. He also doesn’t get top PP minutes, which caps his upside significantly. In order for a player who doesn’t post big hit totals to return near a top-75 pick, he needs either A) a healthy amount of PPPs or B) a healthy plus/minus. I’m not relying on plus/minus to return value on an early-round pick.

  Nicklas Backstrom

I will say I don’t have a particular problem grabbing Backstrom in the seventh round or whatever because he’s pretty safe. If he and his line mates are healthy, he won’t plummet to 50 points or in that neighbourhood. But he doesn’t hit much anymore, and he’s never been a volume shooter. That means unless he gets extremely lucky production-wise, he doesn’t have league-winning upside. Guys like Brayden Schenn and Vincent Trocheck do.

  Alex Pietrangelo

Do people realize Pietrangelo had the best year of his career in 2017-18 and returned the value of a 10th round pick? I have him ranked where I do just because I think the St. Louis offence will be better, but I don’t feel great about the projection even in the eighth round, let alone taking him higher.

  Charlie McAvoy

I just don’t get it at all. Torey Krug is locked on the top PP unit (provided he's healthy), so McAvoy’s PP production will be minimal. He’s still young, but he landed just 1.2 shots per game last year as a rookie. Even if he increases that shot rate by 50 percent, it’s still just 150 shots in 82 games. That’s two-thirds of standard categories where he doesn’t contribute much, and I’m going to have to draft him as a second or third defenceman? Pass.

  *

If anyone wants individual point projections, just let me know in the comments. 

from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-rambling/ramblings-training-camp-notes-karlsson-traded-rankings-september-14/

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The Los Angeles Lakers Will Miss Kentavious Caldwell-Pope When He's Gone

Players like Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are both essential and unspectacular in the exact kind of way that allows them to be taken for granted. After the Detroit Pistons renounced his rights back in July—rejecting an opportunity to surrender over $100 million for their former lottery pick's service—Caldwell-Pope hit the open market with an agreeable game that snugly fits into the NBA’s own tactical trajectory.

He’s a shutdown wing who launches more than half his shots behind the arc. (After a slow start, Caldwell-Pope has nailed just over 40 percent of his threes over his past 10 games and is at a career-best 36.1 percent this season.) What’s not to admire? Weaknesses exist—including an offensive rigidity that prohibits him from being much more than a tepid playmaker, at best—but they’re embraced warmly enough thanks to all the thankless tasks he provides elsewhere.

Caldwell-Pope is now on the Los Angeles Lakers, where he signed a one-year, $17.7 million deal. It feels like an uncomfortable stasis for a player in his fifth season, enduring his second contract year in a row. But the 24-year-old has yet to test the shortcomings of his game for the sake of his own individual growth or production, at the cost of his team's success. Instead, he's solely focused on finding ways to move L.A.'s needle in a positive way. His teammates respect that, understand how important he is, and recognize the partnership could end sooner than anyone wants it to.

"If I put myself in his shoes, it’d just be tough to embrace everybody and kind of get into the whole team aspect knowing that next summer is another free agent year," Lakers forward Larry Nance Jr. told VICE Sports. "But he’s done a terrific job of being selfless and looking out for others."

Even though he’s been integral in helping turn L.A.’s defense around—from a three-year stretch where they ranked either last or second to last in defensive rating to the top-10 unit they own today—Caldwell-Pope is understandably overlooked on a rebuilding roster that includes two of the NBA's last three second-overall picks and a mythological Almighty named Kyle Kuzma. He ranks seventh on the Lakers in usage, with a role that never calls attention to itself, for a team that currently has a 14 percent chance of making the playoffs.

“When we made this deal, me and my agent, we discussed it multiple times,” Caldwell-Pope told VICE Sports. “We knew the risk we were taking. Nine times out of 10 I’d like to bet on myself. That’s what we did. It’s a one-year deal, and so far this season it’s been going well.”

This is far from basketball purgatory, but it’s also not an obvious home. Caldwell-Pope doesn’t have a lot of time to fit in; for reasons we'll get into later on, it’s more likely than not he’ll be in a different city next season. “There’s no benefit [to a one-year deal]. I’m up again next year,” he said. “I could be here, or be wherever I land.”

The good news for both the Lakers and Caldwell-Pope is that his skill-set is seamlessly transferable. He defends multiple positions extremely well, doesn’t need the ball (but can do a little bit with it, if necessary), and levels off as a fine three-point shooter who’s accurate enough to space the floor.

“Obviously it’s always a challenge when you’re coming to a new team on a one-year deal, and I think he’s done a really nice job of playing the way that we want him to play,” Lakers head coach Luke Walton said. “It’s not like he’s learning an entire new offense or anything like that. It’s more just what we’re looking for, what we’re valuing...you learn your teammate's strengths and weaknesses and where you can help them out and where they can help you out. All that stuff just takes time.”

Caldwell-Pope has helped simplify the first two months of Lonzo Ball’s career—as a reliable target on throw-aheads and someone who’ll happily assume the stress caused by wading through the league’s wave of obscene point guard talent every night—and is an ideal chip for one of the league’s fastest offenses.

Last season, Detroit’s pace was 97.6 with Caldwell-Pope on the floor. Right now, in Los Angeles, he’s on a team that’s averaging 105.2 possessions per 48 minutes. No team in basketball is faster.

“He’s a big player for our team, man,” Ball said. “Plays on both ends of the court. He can score with the best of them, and he makes my job a lot easier, just because he can run the lane and guard the guards.”

It doesn’t take a genius to deduce that he might be finding more of his offense in the open floor than last year. And guess what? He is! According to Synergy Sports, only two players (Elfrid Payton and Darren Collison) who’ve logged at least 50 transition possessions have a higher percentage of their individual offense coming from that play type.

Caldwell-Pope gallops the floor off missed shots and turnovers, perpetually looking to cash in against a retreating, unbalanced defense. “Luke made an emphasis on that this year. He wanted to play fast,” Caldwell-Pope said. “He wanted to get the ball up and down the court—see if we got [a good look], if not get it back to Zo and then just run a play. But mostly we want to get out in transition.”

Even though his core responsibilities haven't changed, Caldwell-Pope has been asked to create less offense for himself and others. The percentage of his possessions that have come as a pick-and-roll ball-handler have dropped 10.5 percent. He’s been effective coming off screens and more of his baskets are assisted than before, but unlike a stiff catch-and-shoot wing, Caldwell-Pope is still able to wiggle into satisfactory results when opponents take away what the Lakers want to do.

Here’s an example from a recent win against the Charlotte Hornets. It’s an "elevators" action that attempts to free KCP up for a three by zipper cutting through a double-doors screen set by Kuzma and Brook Lopez.

Marvin Williams recognizes what’s happening and switches out to contest, so Caldwell-Pope puts the ball on the floor, gets to the elbow, and rises up to knock down a mid-range jumper. It’s that ability to improvise that puts him a nose ahead of comparable players like Danny Green. (Here’s how "elevators" looks against a defense that isn’t prepared to stop it.)

At 6’5” and 200 pounds, he's an occasional victim of L.A.’s switch-happy defensive strategy that invites mismatches on the block as a means to neuter the offense’s ball movement and invite inefficient two pointers. Caldwell-Pope ranks dead last as a post defender, according to Synergy Sports, allowing 32 points on 21 possessions despite fighting for position before and after the catch.

But he's polished on the perimeter, a master of the NBA's dark arts defending on and off the ball. He knows how to elude screens, lock onto his man's hip, and transform into his shadow. "He gives me tips and pointers," Lakers rookie Josh Hart told VICE Sports. "He’s talked to me just about how to guard shooters off down screens...how to just be attached and go over the top so you don’t lose that separation and get torched for threes."

Nance Jr. added: "Whether it be Kemba, or Chris Paul, James Harden, Steph, every single night there’s some kind of guard that we play that has go-off potential, and he’s done a really nice job of slowing them down thus far."

Caldwell-Pope hasn’t made any noticeable statistical strides and his True Shooting percentage is still below league average, but he plays hard within his own limitations. Given the dearth of wings who check off the boxes he does on a nightly basis, how increasingly integral spacers who can also defend have become, and the fact that he's yet to enter his prime, Caldwell-Pope should be in line for a massive raise this summer. (He'll enter a marketplace that could also include Trevor Ariza, Avery Bradley, and Danny Green.)

Caldwell-Pope is best-suited on a team that’s ready to win now, but also able to aid a less-experienced roster and help shove them in the right direction (just like he’s doing right now with the Lakers).

But unless he's willing to sign another one-year deal (unlikely!), the Lakers probably won’t keep him beyond this season. Even if they strike out on Paul George, DeMarcus Cousins, LeBron James, etc. in free agency, L.A.’s President of Basketball Operations Magic Johnson is all about preserving max space for the summer of 2019. The organization appreciates all KCP is doing, but would prefer to fill their cap sheet with All-Stars. So if not Los Angeles, where will Caldwell-Pope be next season?

Photo by Kelvin Kuo - USA TODAY Sports

A few intriguing candidates could elbow their way into the hunt—the Philadelphia 76ers, Los Angeles Clippers, and Brooklyn Nets make sense—but my favorite destination is one that wasn’t on anybody’s radar even a month ago: the Indiana Pacers. When you’re good, young, and have a ton of cap space, doors that were once closed start to creak open.

The fit is almost too perfect. Caldwell-Pope would be sublime beside Victor Oladipo, able to defend opposing point guards, spot up on the wing, and prey in transition. This could be the Pacers’ starting backcourt until Myles Turner’s prime. For a franchise that hasn’t traditionally been able to take advantage of free agency, the Pacers have money to spend, an exciting core, and boast an attractive playing style.

“That’s what I do,” Caldwell-Pope told VICE Sports when asked how he’s enjoying L.A.'s quicker cadence. “I run the floor, I run the wing. Either get easy layups or transition threes.”

There’s also the possibility Los Angeles moves him before the trade deadline to a team that’s looking to make a playoff push, but that feels unlikely for a few reasons. To start, whichever team traded for Caldwell-Pope would only receive his non-Bird Rights. Long story short, that means they’d likely need cap space to re-sign him over the summer, as the exception only allows four year deals up to 120 percent of the previous season’s salary with a five percent annual increase.

Crazier things have happened, but it’s highly unlikely Caldwell-Pope’s market value won’t be higher, strengthening the likelihood of him being a mid-season rental more than a long-term investment. He also has a 15 percent trade kicker.

Are there any teams that believe half a season of Caldwell-Pope’s service is worth a first-round pick? The Minnesota Timberwolves would almost definitely fit this description, but they already owe a lottery-protected first to the Atlanta Hawks. The New Orleans Pelicans also fall in line, but lack enough salary in expiring contracts to execute a deal; a three-team transaction is always possible but incredibly difficult to pull off assuming the Lakers and Mystery Team X both want draft picks in the deal.

Caldwell-Pope is an ideal accessory for LeBron in his eternal quest to dethrone the Golden State Warriors—the two employ Rich Paul as an agent—but even though the Cleveland Cavaliers can cobble together a sensical trade package (something like Iman Shumpert, Channing Frye, and a lottery-protected first-round pick in 2021), it’s really hard to see the Lakers go out of their way to nudge James closer to a championship.

If they don't trade him, Los Angeles will probably lose Caldwell-Pope for nothing. They knew what this was the moment they signed him, but that still doesn't make it any easier to accept. He'll likely stay in the Lakers' starting lineup for the rest of the season and continue to instill winning habits in a culture that hasn't enjoyed a player like him in over half a decade. Beyond that, the only thing we know for sure is whichever team does sign Caldwell-Pope for the long haul won't be disappointed.

The Los Angeles Lakers Will Miss Kentavious Caldwell-Pope When He's Gone published first on http://ift.tt/2pLTmlv

[amtushinfosolutionspage]

The Los Angeles Lakers Will Miss Kentavious Caldwell-Pope When He’s Gone

Players like Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are both essential and unspectacular in the exact kind of way that allows them to be taken for granted. After the Detroit Pistons renounced his rights back in July—rejecting an opportunity to surrender over $100 million for their former lottery pick’s service—Caldwell-Pope hit the open market with an agreeable game that snugly fits into the NBA’s own tactical trajectory.

He’s a shutdown wing who launches more than half his shots behind the arc. (After a slow start, Caldwell-Pope has nailed just over 40 percent of his threes over his past 10 games and is at a career-best 36.1 percent this season.) What’s not to admire? Weaknesses exist—including an offensive rigidity that prohibits him from being much more than a tepid playmaker, at best—but they’re embraced warmly enough thanks to all the thankless tasks he provides elsewhere.

Caldwell-Pope is now on the Los Angeles Lakers, where he signed a one-year, $17.7 million deal. It feels like an uncomfortable stasis for a player in his fifth season, enduring his second contract year in a row. But the 24-year-old has yet to test the shortcomings of his game for the sake of his own individual growth or production, at the cost of his team’s success. Instead, he’s solely focused on finding ways to move L.A.’s needle in a positive way. His teammates respect that, understand how important he is, and recognize the partnership could end sooner than anyone wants it to.

“If I put myself in his shoes, it’d just be tough to embrace everybody and kind of get into the whole team aspect knowing that next summer is another free agent year,” Lakers forward Larry Nance Jr. told VICE Sports. “But he’s done a terrific job of being selfless and looking out for others.”

Even though he’s been integral in helping turn L.A.’s defense around—from a three-year stretch where they ranked either last or second to last in defensive rating to the top-10 unit they own today—Caldwell-Pope is understandably overlooked on a rebuilding roster that includes two of the NBA’s last three second-overall picks and a mythological Almighty named Kyle Kuzma. He ranks seventh on the Lakers in usage, with a role that never calls attention to itself, for a team that currently has a 14 percent chance of making the playoffs.

“When we made this deal, me and my agent, we discussed it multiple times,” Caldwell-Pope told VICE Sports. “We knew the risk we were taking. Nine times out of 10 I’d like to bet on myself. That’s what we did. It’s a one-year deal, and so far this season it’s been going well.”

This is far from basketball purgatory, but it’s also not an obvious home. Caldwell-Pope doesn’t have a lot of time to fit in; for reasons we’ll get into later on, it’s more likely than not he’ll be in a different city next season. “There’s no benefit [to a one-year deal]. I’m up again next year,” he said. “I could be here, or be wherever I land.”

The good news for both the Lakers and Caldwell-Pope is that his skill-set is seamlessly transferable. He defends multiple positions extremely well, doesn’t need the ball (but can do a little bit with it, if necessary), and levels off as a fine three-point shooter who’s accurate enough to space the floor.

“Obviously it’s always a challenge when you’re coming to a new team on a one-year deal, and I think he’s done a really nice job of playing the way that we want him to play,” Lakers head coach Luke Walton said. “It’s not like he’s learning an entire new offense or anything like that. It’s more just what we’re looking for, what we’re valuing…you learn your teammate’s strengths and weaknesses and where you can help them out and where they can help you out. All that stuff just takes time.”

Caldwell-Pope has helped simplify the first two months of Lonzo Ball’s career—as a reliable target on throw-aheads and someone who’ll happily assume the stress caused by wading through the league’s wave of obscene point guard talent every night—and is an ideal chip for one of the league’s fastest offenses.

Last season, Detroit’s pace was 97.6 with Caldwell-Pope on the floor. Right now, in Los Angeles, he’s on a team that’s averaging 105.2 possessions per 48 minutes. No team in basketball is faster.

“He’s a big player for our team, man,” Ball said. “Plays on both ends of the court. He can score with the best of them, and he makes my job a lot easier, just because he can run the lane and guard the guards.”

It doesn’t take a genius to deduce that he might be finding more of his offense in the open floor than last year. And guess what? He is! According to Synergy Sports, only two players (Elfrid Payton and Darren Collison) who’ve logged at least 50 transition possessions have a higher percentage of their individual offense coming from that play type.

Caldwell-Pope gallops the floor off missed shots and turnovers, perpetually looking to cash in against a retreating, unbalanced defense. “Luke made an emphasis on that this year. He wanted to play fast,” Caldwell-Pope said. “He wanted to get the ball up and down the court—see if we got [a good look], if not get it back to Zo and then just run a play. But mostly we want to get out in transition.”

Even though his core responsibilities haven’t changed, Caldwell-Pope has been asked to create less offense for himself and others. The percentage of his possessions that have come as a pick-and-roll ball-handler have dropped 10.5 percent. He’s been effective coming off screens and more of his baskets are assisted than before, but unlike a stiff catch-and-shoot wing, Caldwell-Pope is still able to wiggle into satisfactory results when opponents take away what the Lakers want to do.

Here’s an example from a recent win against the Charlotte Hornets. It’s an “elevators” action that attempts to free KCP up for a three by zipper cutting through a double-doors screen set by Kuzma and Brook Lopez.

Marvin Williams recognizes what’s happening and switches out to contest, so Caldwell-Pope puts the ball on the floor, gets to the elbow, and rises up to knock down a mid-range jumper. It’s that ability to improvise that puts him a nose ahead of comparable players like Danny Green. (Here’s how “elevators” looks against a defense that isn’t prepared to stop it.)

At 6’5” and 200 pounds, he’s an occasional victim of L.A.’s switch-happy defensive strategy that invites mismatches on the block as a means to neuter the offense’s ball movement and invite inefficient two pointers. Caldwell-Pope ranks dead last as a post defender, according to Synergy Sports, allowing 32 points on 21 possessions despite fighting for position before and after the catch.

But he’s polished on the perimeter, a master of the NBA’s dark arts defending on and off the ball. He knows how to elude screens, lock onto his man’s hip, and transform into his shadow. “He gives me tips and pointers,” Lakers rookie Josh Hart told VICE Sports. “He’s talked to me just about how to guard shooters off down screens…how to just be attached and go over the top so you don’t lose that separation and get torched for threes.”

Nance Jr. added: “Whether it be Kemba, or Chris Paul, James Harden, Steph, every single night there’s some kind of guard that we play that has go-off potential, and he’s done a really nice job of slowing them down thus far.”

Caldwell-Pope hasn’t made any noticeable statistical strides and his True Shooting percentage is still below league average, but he plays hard within his own limitations. Given the dearth of wings who check off the boxes he does on a nightly basis, how increasingly integral spacers who can also defend have become, and the fact that he’s yet to enter his prime, Caldwell-Pope should be in line for a massive raise this summer. (He’ll enter a marketplace that could also include Trevor Ariza, Avery Bradley, and Danny Green.)

Caldwell-Pope is best-suited on a team that’s ready to win now, but also able to aid a less-experienced roster and help shove them in the right direction (just like he’s doing right now with the Lakers).

But unless he’s willing to sign another one-year deal (unlikely!), the Lakers probably won’t keep him beyond this season. Even if they strike out on Paul George, DeMarcus Cousins, LeBron James, etc. in free agency, L.A.’s President of Basketball Operations Magic Johnson is all about preserving max space for the summer of 2019. The organization appreciates all KCP is doing, but would prefer to fill their cap sheet with All-Stars. So if not Los Angeles, where will Caldwell-Pope be next season?

Photo by Kelvin Kuo – USA TODAY Sports

A few intriguing candidates could elbow their way into the hunt—the Philadelphia 76ers, Los Angeles Clippers, and Brooklyn Nets make sense—but my favorite destination is one that wasn’t on anybody’s radar even a month ago: the Indiana Pacers. When you’re good, young, and have a ton of cap space, doors that were once closed start to creak open.

The fit is almost too perfect. Caldwell-Pope would be sublime beside Victor Oladipo, able to defend opposing point guards, spot up on the wing, and prey in transition. This could be the Pacers’ starting backcourt until Myles Turner’s prime. For a franchise that hasn’t traditionally been able to take advantage of free agency, the Pacers have money to spend, an exciting core, and boast an attractive playing style.

“That’s what I do,” Caldwell-Pope told VICE Sports when asked how he’s enjoying L.A.’s quicker cadence. “I run the floor, I run the wing. Either get easy layups or transition threes.”

There’s also the possibility Los Angeles moves him before the trade deadline to a team that’s looking to make a playoff push, but that feels unlikely for a few reasons. To start, whichever team traded for Caldwell-Pope would only receive his non-Bird Rights. Long story short, that means they’d likely need cap space to re-sign him over the summer, as the exception only allows four year deals up to 120 percent of the previous season’s salary with a five percent annual increase.

Crazier things have happened, but it’s highly unlikely Caldwell-Pope’s market value won’t be higher, strengthening the likelihood of him being a mid-season rental more than a long-term investment. He also has a 15 percent trade kicker.

Are there any teams that believe half a season of Caldwell-Pope’s service is worth a first-round pick? The Minnesota Timberwolves would almost definitely fit this description, but they already owe a lottery-protected first to the Atlanta Hawks. The New Orleans Pelicans also fall in line, but lack enough salary in expiring contracts to execute a deal; a three-team transaction is always possible but incredibly difficult to pull off assuming the Lakers and Mystery Team X both want draft picks in the deal.

Caldwell-Pope is an ideal accessory for LeBron in his eternal quest to dethrone the Golden State Warriors—the two employ Rich Paul as an agent—but even though the Cleveland Cavaliers can cobble together a sensical trade package (something like Iman Shumpert, Channing Frye, and a lottery-protected first-round pick in 2021), it’s really hard to see the Lakers go out of their way to nudge James closer to a championship.

If they don’t trade him, Los Angeles will probably lose Caldwell-Pope for nothing. They knew what this was the moment they signed him, but that still doesn’t make it any easier to accept. He’ll likely stay in the Lakers’ starting lineup for the rest of the season and continue to instill winning habits in a culture that hasn’t enjoyed a player like him in over half a decade. Beyond that, the only thing we know for sure is whichever team does sign Caldwell-Pope for the long haul won’t be disappointed.

The Los Angeles Lakers Will Miss Kentavious Caldwell-Pope When He’s Gone syndicated from http://ift.tt/2ug2Ns6

[othersportsnews-blog]

Major fantasy hockey query for all thirty teams, which includes expansion, draft, free of charge company, trades

New Post has been published on https://othersportsnews.com/major-fantasy-hockey-query-for-all-thirty-teams-which-includes-expansion-draft-free-of-charge-company-trades/

Major fantasy hockey query for all thirty teams, which includes expansion, draft, free of charge company, trades

The Stanley Cup playoffs are nonetheless going on, but it truly is by no means far too early to get a head begin on your analysis for up coming fantasy hockey time.

To get you started off, here’s a search at the largest unresolved, fantasy-suitable query for all thirty present-day NHL teams. (We’ll get to the Vegas Golden Knights as soon as they have more than a person participant on the roster).

Anaheim Ducks: Bursting with blue-line expertise, the Ducks are expected to drop possibly Cam Fowler or Sami Vatanen this summer season, possibly by way of trade or Vegas expansion. In a person circumstance, the club chooses to secure forward Jakub Silfverberg, leaving Vatanen unshielded from Golden Knights GM George McPhee. In yet another, the organization exposes Silfverberg alternatively of Vatanen, bringing about Fowler’s expendability on the trade current market. Having said that it shakes out, growing stars Brandon Montour and Shea Theodore should be on all fantasy observe lists, together with Hampus Lindholm, as Anaheim’s blue line is re-calibrated up coming slide.

Arizona Coyotes: As it stands, a pair of plum assignments down the center are up for grabs in the desert, starting up coming slide. With minor veteran existence remaining at centre — making it possible for for probable offseason moves, of training course — the likes of Christian Dvorak, Clayton Keller and Dylan Strome will be inspired to compete for spots in just the Coyotes’ prime 6. And even though the squad stays a project in development, all 3 promising children advantage quick attention in dynasty leagues and likely even redraft leagues.

Boston Bruins: Ahead Ryan Spooner will probable activity a diverse sweater starting up coming autumn. Most often relegated to a third-line position in 2016-seventeen, Spooner underwhelmed with only 11 targets and 28 assists — small of his perceived fifty-place-plus probable. A transform of landscapes would do the twenty five-yr-old limited free of charge agent some fantastic.

Buffalo Sabres: One particular yr separated from free of charge company, forward Evander Kane could not be very long for the Sabres. Until the sniper assures management he’s committed to re-signing in Buffalo, you can probable lender on a trade among this offseason and up coming season’s trade deadline. Failing to score a one objective in advance of Dec. 3, Kane snapped out of his funk and completed with 28 tallies in 70 video games. His individual fantasy value could inflate additional, based on club and position.

Calgary Flames: Assuming both sides can settle on a new deal, Brian Elliott projects to be the Flames’ standard setting up netminder up coming time. Postseason achievements — or absence thereof — apart, the 32-yr-old goalie finally founded himself as Glen Gulutzan’s undisputed go-to by accomplishing in outstanding trend via February and March. As streaky as they appear, Elliott is up there with the ideal when he’s in variety. Also armed with an expiring deal, backup Chad Johnson is pegged to signal elsewhere. Irrespective of whether the thirty-yr-old is worthy of substantially fantasy consideration relies upon on which individual elsewhere that is.

Carolina Hurricanes: Next his one time with the Hurricanes, veteran forward Lee Stempniak — a perceived club most loved for exposure to the expansion draft — is projected to join his 11th NHL crew this summer season. If so, the 34-yr-old fantasy enigma could be really worth financial commitment in further leagues, based on the place he slots into Vegas’ lineup. Keep an eye.

Chicago Blackhawks: Concentrating on a winger to skate on the remaining facet of Jonathan Toews, the Blackhawks will probable investigate the trade or free of charge agent current market this offseason. If not, sophomore Nick Schmaltz could be in for a doozy of a campaign if planted in that position for most of 2017-18. Ensure the previous initial-spherical draft variety (2014) is on your radar. Altogether, assuming RFA-to-be Richard Panik is re-upped without having difficulty, the 2017-18 corps of forwards may possibly not search that substantially diverse from this season’s edition.

Colorado Avalanche: As repeated in this place all time very long, Matt Duchene will almost absolutely be taking part in for a crew other than the Avalanche up coming time. The subject of time-very long trade rumors, Duchene stays on training course to be dealt this summer season. Captain Gabriel Landeskog could also be on the shift, vacating an extra prime-6 location for the rebuilding squad. Allow this refreshing hockey era in Denver — headed by children Mikko Rantanen, Tyson Jost and J.T. Compher — start.

Columbus Blue Jackets: Prospect Pierre-Luc Dubois is a person to observe carefully in Columbus, starting up coming slide. After a sluggish begin to his last (we’re supposing) junior campaign, previous year’s third-in general draft variety erupted for fifteen targets and 22 assists in 28 video games next his trade from Cape Breton to Blainville-Boisbriand. Affected person keeper-league proprietors may possibly think about snagging this not-but 19-yr-old as a very long-term financial commitment just do not be expecting several fantasy fireworks from the gifted two-way forward right away.

Dallas Stars: The Kari Lehtonen–Antti Niemi era is probable around in Dallas. Next two seasons of sub-mediocre, tandem-steered goaltending, at least a person of Lehtonen or Niemi is expected to be bought out this summer season. Equally have a one yr remaining on their respective contracts. Whoever is kept onboard — our guess is Lehtonen — will probable be relegated to the backup position driving a new physique acquired via free of charge company or trade.

Detroit Pink Wings: Regardless of seeing their crew slide small of a playoff location for the initial time in seemingly eternally, admirers of the Pink Wings nonetheless have substantially to anticipate. For a person, prospect Evgeny Svechnikov should switch some heads, next his initial time of pro hockey in the AHL. Offered a two-match taste at the NHL amount this spring, the twenty-yr-old prospect cobbled alongside one another twenty targets and 31 assists with the Grand Rapids Griffins this earlier time. A significant-close expertise with an extremely bright future, Svechnikov is expected to make the leap total-time up coming slide. All fantasy proprietors should maintain the previous initial-rounder (2015) in watch.

Edmonton Oilers: Unlike his Planet Juniors Finnish linemates Patrick Laine and Sebastien Aho, Jesse Puljujarvi is not reflecting on a terribly productive rookie campaign in the NHL. After scoring a person objective and seven assists in 28 contests with the Oilers, the fourth-in general draft variety was transported to the minors, the place he done decently plenty of without having turning heads. No assure Puljujarvi — nonetheless only 18 decades old — performs a popular position in the major leagues up coming time, possibly. Keep observe on how he handles himself via camp.

Florida Panthers: Even though the door is not slammed shut on Jaromir Jagr returning to the Panthers, it would not seem to be vast open, possibly. There hasn’t been any “we just want to work out the details” communicate from GM Dale Tallon in advance of sitting down down with the 45-yr-old. Simple fact is, Jagr is intent on extending his pro vocation somewhere if he receives a superior deal exterior of Florida, he’ll participate in elsewhere. In that scenario, search for Johnathan Marchessault to gain a shot on the right facet of prime centre Aleksander Barkov and winger Jonathan Huberdeau. Marchessault collected thirty targets and 21 assists in seventy five video games this time — often skating on the remaining facet of Barkov and Jagr for the wounded Huberdeau.

Los Angeles Kings: Contemplating Darryl Sutter’s notorious defensive strategy to the match, the current coaching transform in Los Angeles should result in a bump in output for the club’s having difficulties offensive stars, which includes Anze Kopitar, Tyler Toffoli, Marian Gaborik, Tanner Pearson, defenseman Drew Doughty etcetera. Outdoors of Jeff Carter, no a person set up numbers really worth bragging about in 2016-seventeen. That should transform underneath whoever follows up as bench manager. Keep that in thoughts when drafting your redraft league squads in the slide.

Montreal Canadiens: Failing to regularly impress both head coaches — initial Michel Therrien, then Claude Julien — this campaign, Alex Galchenyuk is dealing with an uncertain future in Montreal. Relegated to the fourth line to start the 2016-seventeen postseason, the previous third-in general draft decide (2012) has evidently fallen out of favor. Next his two-yr bridge deal, Galchenyuk was in line to ink his initial mega-moolah, very long-term deal this summer season if he’d taken the up coming step in his development. But we can’t visualize the Canadiens are prepared to throw bags of hard cash at the 23-yr-old now. Provided the uncertainty with the pending RFA Galchenyuk, Phillip Danault stays poised to additional solidify his position as prime-line centre.

Minnesota Wild: Likewise to the Ducks, the Wild are blessed with far too several capable defensemen. As these types of — presuming Chuck Fletcher and Co. shelter Ryan Suter, Jared Spurgeon and youngster Matt Dumba from Vegas’ drafting grasp — Jonas Brodin and Marco Scandella would be remaining unprotected. So, Brodin then. Who could very well close up the Golden Knights’ No. one defenseman to start 2017-18.

Nashville Predators: Ahead Craig Smith is probable Vegas-sure, the odd-gentleman out amongst the Predators’ projected corps of secured forwards. Thoughts you, the 27-yr-old may possibly not thoughts the shift so substantially, as a prime-6 location probable awaits him as an inaugural Golden Knight — not the scenario for some time in Nashville. Keep in mind, Smith notched 24 targets and 28 assists in 79 video games with the Preds in 2013-14. Introduced with a refreshing begin, he could develop into fantasy-suitable as soon as again.

New Jersey Devils: This earlier time could have felt instead grim, but the future appears moderately bright for the Devils, that includes previous initial-rounders Pavel Zacha (2015) and Michael McLeod (2016). Even though Zacha manufactured a beneficial impact in his initial total NHL time, McLeod dominated in what will probable be his last junior campaign. I’d like to see Jersey’s coaching personnel experiment with this promising forward pairing straight from camp. Continue to be tuned.

New York Islanders: Producing a stir in Brooklyn and around the league in his unwanted fat 5 months of participate in at the tail-close of 2016-seventeen, Josh Ho-Sang supplied more than a glimpse of the impactful participant he’ll be for decades to appear. A location on the right facet of prime centre John Tavares to begin 2017-18 is not out of the query. At minimum amount, Ho-Sang is anticipated to nail down a scoring line with the Islanders, straight out of the gates — assuming the 21-yr-old’s prior ‘behavioral’ issues do not rematerialize. Ideally not, due to the fact he’s an interesting expertise and probable fantasy gem.

New York Rangers: If the Rangers do not swing a facet deal to secure their beneficial backup, Antti Raanta could very well be headed for Vegas in the expansion draft. Target-scoring speedster Michael Grabner is also in danger of migration. And even though Grabner may possibly additional flourish in a popular position up front for the Golden Knights, Raanta’s fantasy inventory is projected to tumble as netminder for a newly cobbled-alongside one another club. It could be in particular messy to begin.

Ottawa Senators: Signed to an entry-amount deal, and acquiring a 5-match taste of pro motion (AHL/NHL) this spring, prime prospect Colin White (in stride with fellow forward Logan Brown and defenseman Thomas Chabot) sits only months away from battling for a total-time NHL position. And maybe contrary to Brown, the previous initial-spherical draft variety (2015) is intensely favored to nail down these types of a gig this slide. In simple fact, a prime-6 location could be supplied to the Boston School skater, as the Senators are projected to drop a person of their present-day wingers to Vegas. Have a search at how it all shuffles out 5 months from now.

Philadelphia Flyers: The Flyers’ internet stays a mysterious zone in advance of this pending offseason. Possibly the club decides to re-signal free of charge agent Steve Mason (in all probability not). Perhaps Michal Neuvirth finishes up Vegas-sure. Having said that it shakes out, rookie Anthony Stolarz is projected to fill a person of two roles with the Flyers for the period of 2017-18. Pegged to begin off as a backup, the 23-yr-old is not going to be denied the chance to steal the bulk of taking part in time down the stretch. It’s going to be up to him.

Pittsburgh Penguins: Irrespective of whether or not he helps get his club yet another Stanley Cup this spring, Marc-Andre Fleury is nonetheless probable viewing his tenure in Pittsburgh appear to an close. And that’s not essentially a bad point for the 32-yr-old. With two decades remaining on his present-day deal, and armed with a modified no-motion clause, Fleury will have some say in the place he’s dealt to this offseason. After falling a step driving Matt Murray with the Penguins, the veteran goalie will certainly gun for a gig carrying the promise of No. one stature. And, goodness appreciates, there’s a handful of otherwise strong sides in want of enhanced netminding out there.

San Jose Sharks: Until their relationship will take a severely bitter switch — or the veteran forward calls for substantially far too substantially — I anticipate the Sharks will re-signal UFA-to-be Joe Thornton this summer season. If not, pencil in 23-yr-old Tomas Hertl as the prime centre alongside Joe Pavelski to begin 2017-18. And make note of this potential promotion in your individual fantasy crib sheet.

St. Louis Blues: He’s major, he’s strong, and he can score. After splitting a hectic rookie time among the Capitals, Blues and AHL Hersey Bears, Zach Sanford is prepared for a total-time task with the Blues. Dynasty proprietors fond of sizable wingers with a nose for the internet should keep track of this 22-yr-old carefully on draft day, in particular if he lays declare to a prime-6/electric power-participate in position with the Blues.

Tampa Bay Lightning: The Lightning facial area a tough endeavor in re-signing 3 important free of charge agents this summer season in Tyler Johnson, Ondrej Palat and Jonathan Drouin. With an eye to the wage cap, there’s perceptible doubt the club will be in a position to secure all 3. Of the trio, Johnson may possibly be viewed as most superfluous, in gentle of the emergence of young centre Brayden Level. If that’s how it performs out, and Johnson is moved, search for Level to likely line up driving a healthy Steven Stamkos as the club’s No. 2 centre. The 21-yr-old rookie collected 40 details — which includes 18 targets — in sixty eight video games this campaign.

Toronto Maple Leafs: Next up eight video games to conclude the standard time, Kasperi Kapanen has already manufactured a beneficial influence with his NHL club in the playoffs. No real surprise there immediately after getting rid of important time to a decrease-physique harm, Sami’s child averaged a place for each match with the AHL Marlies this time. Never drop sight of the twenty-yr-old, as he secures a standard roster location with the Leafs up coming slide, maybe even bumping yet another young expertise — Connor Brown? — from a popular scoring line.

Vancouver Canucks: There appears to be a transforming of the guard in Vancouver. Talking with the push article-standard time, Daniel Sedin and Henrik Sedin instructed they weren’t the de facto prime forward pairing any longer. Not a jarring evaluation completely, thinking of 22-yr-old centre Bo Horvat led the crew with twenty targets and 52 details this time. No matter of no matter if the Sedins stick with the Canucks outside of 2017-18 — last yr on their present-day deal — Daniel and Henrik already seem at peace with getting a backseat to Horvat and the likes of a young Sven Baertschi. Admirers and fantasy proprietors should settle in with this transition as well.

Washington Capitals: Trade deadline acquisition Kevin Shattenkirk is considered to be in Washington for a fantastic time, not a very long time. (Preferably, a excellent time that incorporates successful a Stanley Cup, but we have a approaches to go). At the time summer season hits, the unrestricted free of charge agent is expected to pay attention to gives from all around, which includes his club of option, the Rangers. As very long as the offensive-defenseman lands somewhere exterior of Washington, John Carlson — relegated to second banana because Shattenkirk’s arrival — should reclaim prime fantasy billing on the Capitals’ blue line.

Winnipeg Jets: Unsurprisingly, the Jets are pursuing a new netminder this offseason. Irrespective of whether GM Kevin Cheveldayoff snags a knowledgeable form from the pool of free of charge agents, or brokers a trade, the import should be very easily favored to muscle mass possibly Michael Hutchinson or Connor Hellebuyck — whomever stays — out from the starter’s crease.

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[kristinejrosario]

5 Ways to Write Faster

Running a business is a time suck of epic proportion. Planning, administration, product development, sales, delivery, email, bookkeeping, social media, marketing. It takes time. Throw in a family and you flit from demand to crisis without a moment to reheat that cup of tea you made three hours ago.

Your blog post – that important but not urgent task – is often the victim of the go-go-go life. You know it’s important for but there it is, languishing at the bottom of the ‘to do’ list day after day after day.

‘I must write that blog post.’

‘I really should write a blog post.’

‘Today I will write a blog post.’

‘Tomorrow I will write that blog post…’

Sound familiar?

Not batching, slogging.

I am in awe of bloggers and business owners who casually comment, ‘I write a blog post in 15 to 20 minutes and I batch them. I just sit and write six or seven in a row.’

You what?

Blog posts take me hours. Not minutes. Hours. Write one and I’m creatively spent. I need to lie down, take a walk or faff about on Facebook for 30 minutes to recover. By then a crisis has flared up. Forget batching.

I’m not so hot on the ‘stream of conciousness’ approach either. It’s great for therapy but no-one wants to read my therapy. Not even me.

Despite this I write regularly and professionally. I get it done and I’m getting faster with practice. I’ve also picked up a tip or five from my occupation, psychology.

So here’s what works to write blog posts faster – and why.

1. Have a plan

I used to procrastinate until the day before my publish date (or even the day of) then wait for inspiration to hit and the words to flow. It doesn’t work. It’s slow and frustrating. To get faster I need to know what I’m going to write. Better yet I need some bullet points and links to research I’ll need.

Why it works: In psychology task planning is called an ‘implementation intention’. Its complex and uses the front part of your brain, the prefrontal cortex. Implementation intentions reduce procrastination. Without a plan your brain says, ‘Oops, too hard’ when faced with a big, vague task like writing a blog post. It wanders off to find somewhere else to focus its attention. With a plan you ease its path to your goal, making resistance – and procrastination – less likely.

2. Make planning a separate exercise

Planning then writing in one period is brain overload. Break it into two separate tasks and you increase your efficiency and produce a better result. I like to brainstorm and plan over a coffee at a favourite café. I’ll write later in my office at my laptop.

Why it works: Cues in our environment trigger our habits. Keep looking at the same four walls and you’ll keep thinking in the same old way. To break through a creative block, arrive at fresh ideas and then get writing, mix it up and work in different environments. Large spaces with good natural light and fresh air are great for prompting new thoughts and ideas.

3. Write for 15 minutes a day

Fellow ProBlogger contributor Kelly Exeter put me on to this. Once I’ve got my plan I sit at the laptop, take note of the time, put away distractions and write for 15 minutes. It doesn’t matter what you write. In fact Kelly suggests that if you’re stuck, just keep writing ‘I don’t know what to write here’ until an idea arrives. Try it, it works. What’s more, once you start and find your flow you may find that you just keep going until it’s done.

Why it works: Getting started is often the hardest part of any task, particularly one that feels difficult. The good news is that once we’ve started we’re likely to push on until the job is complete. This is called the Zeigarnik Effect. Your brain doesn’t like starting a task and then stopping part way through. It will linger on your unfinished business, making you anxious until the task is done. Get started and your mind will kick in with the motivation you need to keep going.

4. Set a deadline

A joy of being the boss is the flex in your deadlines. Don’t feel like writing today? Do something else instead. There’s plenty of work to do. Except that’s how the important but not urgent blog post is set adrift.

Sitting, thinking and writing is hard work for your brain. It rewards you by prioritizing that task last, letting you off the hook. It’s a short term gain however. The blog post still isn’t written.

I set myself deadlines for every blog post to trick my brain into getting it done. The shorter the deadline, the more focused you are.

Why it works: Motivation is complex, psychologically, but we know for sure that as a deadline approaches our stress levels rise. When our stress levels rise our brain and body is primed for action. We get started and we work hard to get the task done. This is known as the Yerkes-Dodson Law. No deadline? Not enough stress to get you moving. If you’re a conscientious type like me self imposed deadlines will work. If you’re not, find a way to get others to set deadlines for you.

5. Focus on the end result

The anticipation of a holiday is often the best part, right? Imagine yourself lying by the pool, cocktail in hand, responsibility free. It motivates you to pack and get out of the door.

This works for getting blog posts written too. Generating ideas and writing might feel difficult but don’t focus on that part. Focus on the reward. For me that’s hitting the publish button or sending a finished piece to an editor.  Even better is positive feedback.

Work out where your motivation lies. What’s the reward you get from writing that blog post? Where’s the thrill? Focus on that to get it done.

Why it works: There are two types of goals. Avoidance goals are things to avoid- like losing our audience because we haven’t written a blog post in a month or more. Then there are approach goals. These are the goals that compel us to move forward. Your pool and cocktail vision is an approach goal. The feeling of satisfaction on hitting the publish button is an approach goal. Anything can be an approach goal if you think about it in the right way. Don’t focus on what you’re avoiding. Focus on the good things that come once your task is done.

Ellen Jackson from Potential Psychology is a psychologist who does things differently. She writes about people and why we do what we do. She coaches, she teaches and she helps workplaces to do the people part better.

The post 5 Ways to Write Faster appeared first on ProBlogger.

       from http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/ProbloggerHelpingBloggersEarnMoney/~3/bAJ0MiMShC4/

[richardrobertsimsuccessblog]

5 Ways to Write Faster

Running a business is a time suck of epic proportion. Planning, administration, product development, sales, delivery, email, bookkeeping, social media, marketing. It takes time. Throw in a family and you flit from demand to crisis without a moment to reheat that cup of tea you made three hours ago.

Your blog post – that important but not urgent task – is often the victim of the go-go-go life. You know it’s important for but there it is, languishing at the bottom of the ‘to do’ list day after day after day.

‘I must write that blog post.’

‘I really should write a blog post.’

‘Today I will write a blog post.’

‘Tomorrow I will write that blog post…’

Sound familiar?

Not batching, slogging.

I am in awe of bloggers and business owners who casually comment, ‘I write a blog post in 15 to 20 minutes and I batch them. I just sit and write six or seven in a row.’

You what?

Blog posts take me hours. Not minutes. Hours. Write one and I’m creatively spent. I need to lie down, take a walk or faff about on Facebook for 30 minutes to recover. By then a crisis has flared up. Forget batching.

I’m not so hot on the ‘stream of conciousness’ approach either. It’s great for therapy but no-one wants to read my therapy. Not even me.

Despite this I write regularly and professionally. I get it done and I’m getting faster with practice. I’ve also picked up a tip or five from my occupation, psychology.

So here’s what works to write blog posts faster – and why.

1. Have a plan

I used to procrastinate until the day before my publish date (or even the day of) then wait for inspiration to hit and the words to flow. It doesn’t work. It’s slow and frustrating. To get faster I need to know what I’m going to write. Better yet I need some bullet points and links to research I’ll need.

Why it works: In psychology task planning is called an ‘implementation intention’. Its complex and uses the front part of your brain, the prefrontal cortex. Implementation intentions reduce procrastination. Without a plan your brain says, ‘Oops, too hard’ when faced with a big, vague task like writing a blog post. It wanders off to find somewhere else to focus its attention. With a plan you ease its path to your goal, making resistance – and procrastination – less likely.

2. Make planning a separate exercise

Planning then writing in one period is brain overload. Break it into two separate tasks and you increase your efficiency and produce a better result. I like to brainstorm and plan over a coffee at a favourite café. I’ll write later in my office at my laptop.

Why it works: Cues in our environment trigger our habits. Keep looking at the same four walls and you’ll keep thinking in the same old way. To break through a creative block, arrive at fresh ideas and then get writing, mix it up and work in different environments. Large spaces with good natural light and fresh air are great for prompting new thoughts and ideas.

3. Write for 15 minutes a day

Fellow ProBlogger contributor Kelly Exeter put me on to this. Once I’ve got my plan I sit at the laptop, take note of the time, put away distractions and write for 15 minutes. It doesn’t matter what you write. In fact Kelly suggests that if you’re stuck, just keep writing ‘I don’t know what to write here’ until an idea arrives. Try it, it works. What’s more, once you start and find your flow you may find that you just keep going until it’s done.

Why it works: Getting started is often the hardest part of any task, particularly one that feels difficult. The good news is that once we’ve started we’re likely to push on until the job is complete. This is called the Zeigarnik Effect. Your brain doesn’t like starting a task and then stopping part way through. It will linger on your unfinished business, making you anxious until the task is done. Get started and your mind will kick in with the motivation you need to keep going.

4. Set a deadline

A joy of being the boss is the flex in your deadlines. Don’t feel like writing today? Do something else instead. There’s plenty of work to do. Except that’s how the important but not urgent blog post is set adrift.

Sitting, thinking and writing is hard work for your brain. It rewards you by prioritizing that task last, letting you off the hook. It’s a short term gain however. The blog post still isn’t written.

I set myself deadlines for every blog post to trick my brain into getting it done. The shorter the deadline, the more focused you are.

Why it works: Motivation is complex, psychologically, but we know for sure that as a deadline approaches our stress levels rise. When our stress levels rise our brain and body is primed for action. We get started and we work hard to get the task done. This is known as the Yerkes-Dodson Law. No deadline? Not enough stress to get you moving. If you’re a conscientious type like me self imposed deadlines will work. If you’re not, find a way to get others to set deadlines for you.

5. Focus on the end result

The anticipation of a holiday is often the best part, right? Imagine yourself lying by the pool, cocktail in hand, responsibility free. It motivates you to pack and get out of the door.

This works for getting blog posts written too. Generating ideas and writing might feel difficult but don’t focus on that part. Focus on the reward. For me that’s hitting the publish button or sending a finished piece to an editor.  Even better is positive feedback.

Work out where your motivation lies. What’s the reward you get from writing that blog post? Where’s the thrill? Focus on that to get it done.

Why it works: There are two types of goals. Avoidance goals are things to avoid- like losing our audience because we haven’t written a blog post in a month or more. Then there are approach goals. These are the goals that compel us to move forward. Your pool and cocktail vision is an approach goal. The feeling of satisfaction on hitting the publish button is an approach goal. Anything can be an approach goal if you think about it in the right way. Don’t focus on what you’re avoiding. Focus on the good things that come once your task is done.

Ellen Jackson from Potential Psychology is a psychologist who does things differently. She writes about people and why we do what we do. She coaches, she teaches and she helps workplaces to do the people part better.

The post 5 Ways to Write Faster appeared first on ProBlogger.

       5 Ways to Write Faster

[silvino32mills]

5 Ways to Write Faster

Running a business is a time suck of epic proportion. Planning, administration, product development, sales, delivery, email, bookkeeping, social media, marketing. It takes time. Throw in a family and you flit from demand to crisis without a moment to reheat that cup of tea you made three hours ago.

Your blog post – that important but not urgent task – is often the victim of the go-go-go life. You know it’s important for but there it is, languishing at the bottom of the ‘to do’ list day after day after day.

‘I must write that blog post.’

‘I really should write a blog post.’

‘Today I will write a blog post.’

‘Tomorrow I will write that blog post…’

Sound familiar?

Not batching, slogging.

I am in awe of bloggers and business owners who casually comment, ‘I write a blog post in 15 to 20 minutes and I batch them. I just sit and write six or seven in a row.’

You what?

Blog posts take me hours. Not minutes. Hours. Write one and I’m creatively spent. I need to lie down, take a walk or faff about on Facebook for 30 minutes to recover. By then a crisis has flared up. Forget batching.

I’m not so hot on the ‘stream of conciousness’ approach either. It’s great for therapy but no-one wants to read my therapy. Not even me.

Despite this I write regularly and professionally. I get it done and I’m getting faster with practice. I’ve also picked up a tip or five from my occupation, psychology.

So here’s what works to write blog posts faster – and why.

1. Have a plan

I used to procrastinate until the day before my publish date (or even the day of) then wait for inspiration to hit and the words to flow. It doesn’t work. It’s slow and frustrating. To get faster I need to know what I’m going to write. Better yet I need some bullet points and links to research I’ll need.

Why it works: In psychology task planning is called an ‘implementation intention’. Its complex and uses the front part of your brain, the prefrontal cortex. Implementation intentions reduce procrastination. Without a plan your brain says, ‘Oops, too hard’ when faced with a big, vague task like writing a blog post. It wanders off to find somewhere else to focus its attention. With a plan you ease its path to your goal, making resistance – and procrastination – less likely.

2. Make planning a separate exercise

Planning then writing in one period is brain overload. Break it into two separate tasks and you increase your efficiency and produce a better result. I like to brainstorm and plan over a coffee at a favourite café. I’ll write later in my office at my laptop.

Why it works: Cues in our environment trigger our habits. Keep looking at the same four walls and you’ll keep thinking in the same old way. To break through a creative block, arrive at fresh ideas and then get writing, mix it up and work in different environments. Large spaces with good natural light and fresh air are great for prompting new thoughts and ideas.

3. Write for 15 minutes a day

Fellow ProBlogger contributor Kelly Exeter put me on to this. Once I’ve got my plan I sit at the laptop, take note of the time, put away distractions and write for 15 minutes. It doesn’t matter what you write. In fact Kelly suggests that if you’re stuck, just keep writing ‘I don’t know what to write here’ until an idea arrives. Try it, it works. What’s more, once you start and find your flow you may find that you just keep going until it’s done.

Why it works: Getting started is often the hardest part of any task, particularly one that feels difficult. The good news is that once we’ve started we’re likely to push on until the job is complete. This is called the Zeigarnik Effect. Your brain doesn’t like starting a task and then stopping part way through. It will linger on your unfinished business, making you anxious until the task is done. Get started and your mind will kick in with the motivation you need to keep going.

4. Set a deadline

A joy of being the boss is the flex in your deadlines. Don’t feel like writing today? Do something else instead. There’s plenty of work to do. Except that’s how the important but not urgent blog post is set adrift.

Sitting, thinking and writing is hard work for your brain. It rewards you by prioritizing that task last, letting you off the hook. It’s a short term gain however. The blog post still isn’t written.

I set myself deadlines for every blog post to trick my brain into getting it done. The shorter the deadline, the more focused you are.

Why it works: Motivation is complex, psychologically, but we know for sure that as a deadline approaches our stress levels rise. When our stress levels rise our brain and body is primed for action. We get started and we work hard to get the task done. This is known as the Yerkes-Dodson Law. No deadline? Not enough stress to get you moving. If you’re a conscientious type like me self imposed deadlines will work. If you’re not, find a way to get others to set deadlines for you.

5. Focus on the end result

The anticipation of a holiday is often the best part, right? Imagine yourself lying by the pool, cocktail in hand, responsibility free. It motivates you to pack and get out of the door.

This works for getting blog posts written too. Generating ideas and writing might feel difficult but don’t focus on that part. Focus on the reward. For me that’s hitting the publish button or sending a finished piece to an editor.  Even better is positive feedback.

Work out where your motivation lies. What’s the reward you get from writing that blog post? Where’s the thrill? Focus on that to get it done.

Why it works: There are two types of goals. Avoidance goals are things to avoid- like losing our audience because we haven’t written a blog post in a month or more. Then there are approach goals. These are the goals that compel us to move forward. Your pool and cocktail vision is an approach goal. The feeling of satisfaction on hitting the publish button is an approach goal. Anything can be an approach goal if you think about it in the right way. Don’t focus on what you’re avoiding. Focus on the good things that come once your task is done.

Ellen Jackson from Potential Psychology is a psychologist who does things differently. She writes about people and why we do what we do. She coaches, she teaches and she helps workplaces to do the people part better.

The post 5 Ways to Write Faster appeared first on ProBlogger.

       from ProBlogger http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/ProbloggerHelpingBloggersEarnMoney/~3/Og8wubLmNWU/