#cause I could use the money from work for ubers and safely pile up the 400$+ comms in my savings while I scout out apartments

[kagedbird]

So everyone in the Airbnb I live in is back from winter break, and my actual downstairs roommate (it's just us two) has decided he lives in the fucking bathroom every time I need it (out of coincidence but still, mate, hurry the fuck up) to the point where I asked the owners if I could just use the upstairs bathroom and it was the first time I've ever gone upstairs before (since we're usually not allowed) and hoLY SHIT THAT WAS TERRIFYING. THOSE STAIRS ARE A DEATH TRAP.

Anyways: here's to getting my first apartment at some point this year because I Cannot take this shit anymore. Please.

[superthiccthighssavelives]

Give Me A Try - Chapter 3

Chapter 3 - The Agenda

The cab was warm and reeked of patchouli. Soft music was soothing me into relaxation, my head resting back into the seat. Whoever was singing had the most beautiful, ethereal voice.  I closed my eyes, almost drifting off, half dreaming about a cheeseburger and my bed. 

I finally reached home, took the 100 year old lift up to my floor and collapsed onto my futon. I forgot it wasn’t as soft as my bed, and my ass paid the price. “OWWW” I whined more than yelled, just another damn thing today. I pushed myself up and poured a shot of vodka I had been pining over since noon. It burned going down, but the warmth running into my chest felt so good. 

A bubble bath sounded nice, too bad I only have a tiny stand up shower. My apartment was actually quite large, but lacked any fine amenities I was used to back in the states. I didn’t have much money to furnish it, so I had to deal with a lumpy futon, a lamp and a few plants. 

The building used to be an old factory, but had since shut down and turned into artists lofts as they called them. To be honest, I’ve always dreamed of living in one, with of course, more stuff to make it my own. The only downfall, the drafts, I was always chilly. The fireplace was wood burning, but my skill at starting fires were severely lacking. 

Choosing from old chinese food, cold pizza (my microwave had decided to kick the bucket this morning), or a banana for dinner proved to be too difficult of a decision for me, I wanted that juicy cheeseburger I had been dreaming of, but sadly, my funds were limited and I’d much rather have running water and electricity. 

My belly rumbled, I poured another shot and winced at how harshly it was going down. Fuck it, old chinese it is, I’m pretty sure MSG can hold up for 2 weeks right? If not, a reason to call in sick. I laughed at that thought, there’s no way on Earth I would be allowed to take a day off, sick or not. Not only would I most likely be dragged out by my hair, everything would fall apart without me mediating.

Sweet and sour chicken was more sour than sweet, so after a few noodles, the carton descended into the bin. Giving up, I peeled off my wet clothes, leaving them in a soggy pile on the floor. The steam of the shower felt so good, relieving the stress of the day. My muscles relaxed, and even though it was only 8pm, my bed was calling me. 

I dreamed of cheeseburgers wearing glasses, telling me to pick up their dry cleaning. I blame the old chinese food on that one. I dreamed the rain flooded my apartment, I dreamed about my shoe breaking over and over like one of those boomerang videos, and finally I dreamed about my hands, my hands that gripped so tightly onto his jacket, and hands that held me in place so firmly. All I saw were hands. I woke up in a cold sweat thinking I was late for work. 

3:36AM, I was safe. My heart was beating out of my chest. I chugged a warm glass of water I had sitting on my night stand and laid back down. I tried to get back to sleep, but I kept seeing green eyes. I turned and sighed, hearing his voice yell after me. I squeezed my eyes shut even tighter, trying to get that vision out of my head.

I’ve been awake for 3 goddamn hours since that last dream. I’m exhausted but my mind refused to let me sleep any longer. 

After the clock ticked to 6:45am, I decided to just get up, grab my banana and look over today’s agenda in my book.

I rummaged through my bag, unable to feel it. It was a bottomless pit at times, full of receipts, tissues, makeup, random shit I’ve collected that day. I tipped it over dumping its contents on the floor, nope not here.

“Shit shit shit SHIT! Ok, no, it was in my coat pocket, right?“

Grabbing my jacket, which was still wet and now smelling rather musty, my hands frantically searched, coming up with nothing. I had ...everything, in there. Appointments, meetings, schedules, notes for today’s shoot. “Oh my god, fuuuuuuuuuuuck”

This time my emotions got the best of me and a few tears slipped out, I was so screwed without that book. Justin (my fashion editor) was going to murder me. I tugged on my hair trying to think of where else it could be, did I leave it at work? But I wasn’t even at the office yesterday. Ok, when was the last time I had it? 

Yesterday morning, on the train. Yes I was sure, I was writing down ideas for Noreen’s next article. Noreen being a staff writer, who I had become chummy with. She was looking for ideas for anything new and interesting, I had a few, but they’re fucking gone now! 

Oh god, what if I dropped it while on the way to the train? I am completely fucked. 

I felt sick, I paced the floor, I breathed in and out rapidly, I put my head between my knees. I had absolutely no idea what I was going to do. Shit!

I eyed my vodka bottle, no, that’s not gonna help. I‘ll retrace my steps, it’s early enough to go back and look, maybe someone turned it into a station attendant! I threw on shoes and a jacket, booking it down the street. I hopped on the first bus I saw heading in that direction.

I didn’t care that I was wearing pajamas with kittens on them, or combat boots, or that my hair was disheveled, I NEEDED to find my planner. The rain was still coming down, but in short sprinkled bursts. I looked everywhere I thought I was at, I got on the ground and looked under old damp newspapers, I almost, thisclose, reached into the bins to see if someone had thrown it out, if no one thought I wasn’t crazy then, they sure as hell would now.

Disappointment and despair filled me. Well, what now?

Once again, I peeled off my wet clothes right as I entered my apartment, and hurriedly got ready for work. I contemplated calling in sick, I kept reaching for the phone, and putting it back down. My mind was racing. Is it possible to have a heart attack this young? 

I resigned myself and prepared for my fate. Maybe I’d get lucky and we would be in the office today, I couldn’t for the life of me remember the agenda. 

The train ride was especially short, of course. Today of all days, public transit decides to be efficient. I found myself inside the office, not even remembering how I got there. My head was in such a daze, I was scared to death of being fired. 

Justin’s hand wrapped around my arm pulling me to his desk. “You’re late! We gotta get to the shoot! Call us an Uber.”

Thank god he knew where we were going, cause I sure as hell didn’t. Fuck, I didn’t even know the address of where we were going. My eyes darted around the room, desperately trying to think, remember, recall any part of yesterday’s meetings. 

Justin shouted my name, echoing through the whole office. “How much longer?”

“Just a few minutes!” My voice was shaky and sounded seriously hoarse. I looked down at the desk, I was saved. There was a call sheet for today’s shoot I must have left behind. 

After climbing what felt like 50 flights of stairs, we made it into the studio. What a clusterfuck. People were blurs, rushing back and forth, camera flashes, yelling,  pure chaos. I felt naked without my book, I didn’t know what to do. I felt like I was having an out of body experience. My head was filled with static, getting louder and louder. 

I took a seat on one of the sofas, and froze. I saw a pair of familiar green eyes catch mine…

Chapter 1 - The London Underground

Chapter 2 - Theater

Graphics courtesy of @stardustmess​ <3

@hvnkymadden​ @hryedwrdstles​

[vsplusonline]

For Covid-19 battered auto dealers, the worst may be yet to come

New Post has been published on https://apzweb.com/for-covid-19-battered-auto-dealers-the-worst-may-be-yet-to-come/

For Covid-19 battered auto dealers, the worst may be yet to come

The month of April this year was noteworthy, at least for the country’s auto sector. It was the first month in the history of the Indian auto sector when it registered absolute zero sales. This highlights the magnitude of the blow the Covid-19 and the nationwide lockdown have brought to an already beleaguered sector.

The lockdown’s far reaching blow to the sector has been so drastic that the industry body SIAM estimates that the auto industry would lose Rs 2,300 crore turnover every day due to the lockdown. The lobby body has projected that the country will witness a massive drop in auto sales, which could be as high as 35% for some segments. This, it says, is over and above the 18% de-growth of FY20.

With locked showrooms for almost two months, auto dealers now stare at a stark future. Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA), the national body of automobile retailers in India, believes the epidemic had hit it at a time when it was preparing for recovery in sales growth after 15 months of a downturn.

In recent times, thanks to the virus’ fallout, more than 275 dealerships had to shut down, says FADA, whose President, Ashish Harsharaj Kale, believes the virus and the nationwide lockdown has hit the industry “at the worst possible time”.

Experts say auto sales are purely discretionary purchases and that is biggest Achilles heel. According to Kale, it’s in the government’s interest to take measures to revive the auto demand because the setor has a multiplier effect on the entire economy.

Acknowledging the need to get the economy moving, the government while introducing lockdown 3.0 brought in many relaxations, but most believe these did not result in any material change on the ground for the auto dealers.

“I don’t think anything will improve right now, because the big issue lies with the supply chain. With factories only resuming activities, I don’t see any major improvement unless things improve overall in the larger ecosystem,” says Chinmay Bafna, Managing Director of Mumbai-based Anzen Automotive. It is not just the supply chain that is a cause of worry. Many fear the high degree a ‘return of license raj’, red-tapism and widespread bureaucratic bottlenecks are other critical hindrances that are currently limiting the scope of any possible economic recovery of this segment.

ET Online

According to Garima Misra, MD of the automobile dealership chain Landmark Group, there was a negligible difference the lockdown 3.0 had brought to the sector. “The relaxations did not help us. The MHA guidelines were all good on paper, but approvals were not really coming,” she says, adding every state did not follow the MHA guidelines to a tee.

Misra adds that with little or manpower in the showrooms, no manufacturers to provide the key supplies, opening a showroom and waiting for a customer to turn up made little sense. With lockdown 4.0 there is hope that the situation may change slowly.

Need for speed The auto dealers segment employs over 40 lakh employees across the country, with 25 lakh direct employees and another 15 lakh indirectly dependent on dealerships for their livelihood, says FADA. Kale says the majority of the auto dealerships are family-run small scale businesses with each, at an average employing 70-150 people. The lobby body now fears as Covid’s toll surge, many in this section would be pushed out of business.

It is not just the present, which is difficult for these dealers, but the future also looks very uncertain. Selling cars online can become an accepted model and companies like Maruti Suzuki, Hyundai, Honda and a bunch of luxury car makers are already allowing customers that option. According to a survey done by the Capgemini Research Institute, 70% Indian car buyers may prefer to take a digital route over visiting a dealership. That is a cause of concern.

On the flip side, as social distancing norms become even more prevalent, many may consider buying their own car or two-wheeler, if they do not have one. Many do not consider it safe to avail ride hailing services like Ola and Uber and using public transport is also a cause of worry. There is also the hope that pent-up demand in the economy would help get sales up in the future. However, as the entire economy grapples with the economic shock, consumers may just not have enough money or the willingness to invest in a car.

Misra of Group Landmark goes on to highlight that auto dealers work on a nominal margin of 1.5- 2% Return on sales (ROS). “For auto dealers, the two biggest expenses are rent and wages. Salary and wages constitute close to 40% of our total operating cost. With absolutely zero sales, how could we bear those mammoth costs” wonders Misra, adding the segment does not sit on huge cash surplus, as may be the case with other sectors.

“Though we do high turnover business, we don’t possess accumulated profits like other sectors. The sector’s present situation is such if your interest rate goes up even a bit, you are immediately down in the dumps,” she remarks, adding the government’s 3-month loan moratorium on offer, is a deferment and not a waiver. Even if businesses avail the moratorium, it is also not that the dealership fraternity is expecting its sales number to magically raise manifold, post the 3-months.

ET Online

For the country’s auto dealers, the issue of unsold BS-IV vehicle stock is another key concern. The industry fears that many dealers face closure if leftover with unsold BS-IV vehicles lasts with them. The issue has now turned so critical that FADA has once again approached the Supreme Court with a request for the permission of sale and registration of BS-IV vehicles till 31st May’20.

“All these piled up inventory has been taken on loans. Their [dealers] homes are attached, properties are attached, and the issue is none of their faults. There is no way they would be able to pay up in the current situation,” highlights Misra of Group Landmark.

Talks of turnaround To help the auto dealers’ fraternity remain afloat in these unprecedented times, the industry body FADA wants a complete waiver of interest on all categories of loans from banks and NBFCs for the entire period of the lockdown. It also wants the government to extend 4% interest subvention/subsidy for working capital/loan requirements to companies for a period of 9 months post the lockdown. More importantly, the lobby body wants the salary of employees for the lockdown period to be paid through ESIC as it believes this is a health pandemic and, thus salary liabilities should be covered under the same by ESI.

The country’s tax regime is also an aspect where FADA believes few tweaks can significantly help the sector tide over the crisis. “The automotive sector is crippled by very high GST rates, whose net impact ranges from 29% to 50% depending on the category of the vehicle. Thus, a reduction in GST for a temporary period will lower the cost of acquisition and will be a good incentive towards stimulating demand,” says Kale . Alternatively, he also suggests a direct benefit to consumers of 3-4% interest rate reduction through banks and NBFCs to reduce the overall cost of owning a vehicle, besides asking the government to include auto Industry in priority sector lending so that both retail and wholesale financing can be made available easily.

if(geolocation && geolocation != 5 && (typeof skip == 'undefined' || typeof skip.fbevents == 'undefined')) !function(f,b,e,v,n,t,s) if(f.fbq)return;n=f.fbq=function()n.callMethod? n.callMethod.apply(n,arguments):n.queue.push(arguments); if(!f._fbq)f._fbq=n;n.push=n;n.loaded=!0;n.version='2.0'; n.queue=[];t=b.createElement(e);t.async=!0; t.src=v;s=b.getElementsByTagName(e)[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(t,s)(window, document,'script', 'https://connect.facebook.net/en_US/fbevents.js'); fbq('init', '338698809636220'); fbq('track', 'PageView');

Source link

[crimsonblackrose]

I’ve spent a lot of time waffling this year back and forth between traveling or not. On the one hand I’m heading home in March and I should be saving my money to help get me through until I find a job and have health insurance and try to figure out what it means to be an adult in America. (I’ve realized I’ve spent most of my independent adult life in South Korea and as well as most of my adult job experience in South Korea and it’s going to be a weird transition which I’ll discuss in some later post.)

A lot of that really concerns me, I’m leaving what is essentially financial stability and all these other things to go home to great unknowns and the idea of just staying in Korea and saving my money for a rainy day seems like the smart move. I also need to pack. I have 5 years worth of my adult life in South Korea that I need to go through. But maybe first I should watch “Tidying up with Marie Kondo?” (ah that’s procrastination at its finest right there)

But on the other hand I don’t know when I’ll be able to travel again after I’m in the States. It feels like I’m jumping feet first into cement and I’m not sure when I’ll be able to break free. I’m sure I’ll be able to travel within the continental United States, but branching outwards again seems like it’ll take awhile to work up to. And that’s what made me decide to go. The next step was where. I wanted to go to Hong Kong or New Zealand but both places seemed like it wasn’t the best time to go. And surprisingly France was fairly cheap for around when I could take vacation days. So I decided for the first time since moving to South Korea to leave Asia for a vacation and go, not to the States, but to Europe. I double checked a couple times that there weren’t any travel warnings and there were month old notices about the strikes but it seemed no one had updated those to say that things were unsafe. I downloaded Citymapper, purchased some travel wifi, and the Paris Pass, and prepped my plans which I then sent to my parents. Here’s the plan, edited a bit from what I sent my parents to be more accurately reflect my trip: Paris 2020.

A lot of my friends in South Korea are in a similar boat as me. A lot of them are planning to go home soon or are in the midst of moving, so many many of them are staying home this winter, or they’ve already made plans. I figured if I was going to go I had to go on my own.

I’ve traveled alone before. I’ve traveled all over Korea on my own, as well as Japan, Thailand, and Taiwan. I knew that one of my professors that took us to Prague would be in Paris around the same time so I made plans to meet up with her, but that was it. The other person I thought I knew in Paris actually wasn’t in Paris or even France at all. So I read some blogs and figured, as long as I looked like I knew what I’m doing, stayed busy, booked a hotel in a good area then I should’ve been fine. I also figured it’d be a good test run for moving back to the Chicago area. In Korea I can just leave my phone on a table and it’ll be there when I get back. There aren’t really pick pockets, so you can walk around with your bag open and more often than not be fine. There’s CCTV everywhere so if something happens you just have to pull footage, it deters a lot.

Even though it was technically going to be a 6 day trip it was actually only 3 full days in Paris. The cheapest trip I had an option for that I felt comfortable doing had an overnight layover in Osaka and I’d loose a day on my way back from Paris. So I tried to cram as much into those 3 days as possible. A lot changed from my original plan due to the days places were open, the changes in hours due to the strikes and my limited amount of time. I originally planned to spend my last day at Disney, but I just couldn’t bring myself to do it. I tried finding all the unique Parisian Disney things online to get myself hyped up and make a list of goals, only to find almost nothing that didn’t require a reservation months in advance. I couldn’t find blog posts or Instagram posts raving the unique Disney Parisian foods or snacks or souvenirs like they do for Tokyo Disney and Disney Sea. So I scrapped my plans to go. Which with how exhausted I was by the time Monday rolled around was probably for the best.

I was in Paris in early January while the strikes were happening. This will probably get posted several months later at which point I hope they’ve been resolved. Public transportation was still accessible however it was very limited. Depending on the train, the services were drastically cut or not running at all. This meant buses were crammed pack full of people, especially during rush hour times in the morning and evening.

 It made getting around really difficult but not impossible. A lot of people I talked to mentioned how due to the strikes; Uber and taxi’s had hiked up their prices. I didn’t use Uber or taxi’s to get around and instead relied heavily on the app: Citymapper. I tried using Google maps only once to try and get to Versailles and it suggested I take a metro line that wasn’t working that day, which I only realized after buying the tickets and making my way to an empty platform. 

The one thing I would note about Citymapper is to double check everything. If you can, look up the address then copy and paste it into the search, or make sure the name of the place is correct and in French. Because in English we called Versailles the “Palace of Versailles”, but when I typed that into my map it sent me to the wrong place around Viroflay. It suggested I take the big out of town train down to Viroflay, transfer on a mini little local tram, and then walk the rest of the way to a green looking area that was not in-fact Versailles. (Which is what led me to Google mapping it and end up with tickets going for a line that wasn’t running.)

The little grey you-are-here symbol on the left with the clock is the actual Palace of Versailles known in French as Château de Versailles while the other one to the upper right is where Citymapper originally tried to send me. They’re a good 40 minutes away from each other, 50 minutes if you try to walk it. Thankfully I could take the bus but I wasn’t sure if I needed exact change, which I didn’t have. The machines only took coins or a card so I was concerned the bus would be the same. Which meant I also had to hike around to find somewhere where I could break a bill and get 1.90 euros in change to pay for the bus to Versailles. I did eventually make it but it was frustrating how much time I lost.

It was however, the only time Citymapper let me down. It was pretty accurate the rest of the time, though the bus back to the airport did not come nearly as often as it said it would but I can’t hardly fault the app for that one. I was in the right spot and I was very early so I wasn’t too upset.

Generally getting around you can get a train pass. They have card passes like most cities that you can tap to get into the station or on the bus. Or you can get a little paper card that you feed into the reader every time you get on or go up to a turnstile.

Sortie means exit. Follow the signs to get out of train stations or anywhere else you might be.

 Because I paid for 3 days of the Paris Pass it meant that I got 3 days of public transit access between zones 1-3 which sadly did not include Versailles. It is possible, but expensive, to get a pass that includes more zones.  It included practically everything else in downtown Paris that was working. For everything else I bought on board (the bus generally) with exact change. For the airport Roissy bus I purchased my ticket down to Opera at the information center in the airport and back to the airport from Opera directly from the bus driver at the bus stop. It was about 13.90 euros which is more than Citymapper quoted, but it might be cheaper if you have a pass.

For every other bus it was about 1.90 in coins which I always made sure I had exact, then would take the ticket they gave me and fed it into the feeder. No one scanned to get out or used the readers to leave the buses or trains so I now I just have a large pile of tickets.

In case the reader doesn’t work you have to show the ticket you are using to the bus driver. Because this occasionally happens you need to write your name on the pass and the dates it’ll be used.

Nom: last name prénom: first name

Other popular ways of getting around which Citymapper included locations of were scooters and bikes. It was really nice to see the Strike safe options as well as what my options were.

Usually what I did was a combination of a bus and walking, a lot of walking.

Citymapper also have some fun Easter eggs.

Depending on the location I could play a mini game where I tried to slingshot myself (not actually myself) to the destination. And there was a Cheshire cat that tended to move around the map.

Before I left for Paris I tried to look up ways to stay safe. A lot of them reassured that you could in fact, as a woman travel safely in Paris on your own you just needed to look like you knew where you were going, be careful of pick pockets and be extra careful at night. A lot of touristy and not so touristy places also warned to be aware of pick pockets, even a small English friendly cafe I went to had signs up everywhere warning people of pick pockets.

There are a couple scams I read up about. One was people trying who ask if you dropped a piece of jewelry and someone else will root around in your bag while you talk to the first person. Or they will try to sell you the jewelry. Another similar one is to hand you something or start drawing your picture or try to give you something and then demand money.

I didn’t run into any of these. Instead I ran into “Petition Pick Pocket” a lot. Usually someone would ask me

“Do you speak English?” and then would go into a spiel about how they were collecting signatures to help some cause or another. It was usually handicapped people. To which the first time this happened as I was walking away from the Eiffel Tower I responded: “I don’t live here.”

To which the woman responded that it was an international thing. To which I said again, “I don’t live here.” and quickly walked across the street with one of the men  who was a vendor selling Eiffel Tower souvenirs near the area who had thankfully called out to me that I could cross since there wasn’t a sign. Super grateful to him for giving me an out to the situation.

This is a common scam that gets used a lot in different countries. I’ve run into it in Seoul, near the church in Myeongdong, I just hadn’t realized what it was at the time. In that case it sort of made sense due to the location as the woman wanted to gather signatures to do something about abortions. But again, it’s really strange that she’d pick a non-Korean person to gather a signature from. Just like the one’s in Paris it doesn’t make sense.

Why only ask English speakers? If you want change made for your petition and for any governmental official to actually care it has to be done by locals. Almost no government or political thing I know of is totally chill with you coming up with a list of signatures from random people who don’t live in the area and who aren’t citizens.

If you just need random signatures that aren’t locals you could just do it yourself with random different names and trying to write differently. You don’t actually need to petition. But the whole point of petitioning is to get support from locals, not tourists/visitors.

They don’t explain fully what it’s for. The idea though is for it to be something that you’d be a horrible person to turn away from. Helping poor babies or children who need assistance. Usually something that will earn you all the dirty looks if you refuse. But how do I know exactly how it would help? If it’s not explained well but in a rush of words how can I be sure I’m not being tricked like people commonly are when people suggest ending women’s suffrage (their right to vote but it sounds like they’re suffering so sometimes people get tricked). If you run into other organizations then they’re more than happy to talk your ear off if you’ll stand still long enough to listen. But these don’t.

So how is it a scam and not just things that don’t make sense logically? Generally there’s about two ways it can go. But the beginning will be the same. A person with a clipboard (in all cases I ran into it was a woman) will ask “Do you speak English?” and then ask for you to sign a petition of some kind. Either when they manage to foist the clipboard and pen into your hands to sign they’ll take the time to root around in your purse or bag while you can’t see it because you’re attention has been directed to the clipboard, or they’ll ask for a donation and try to shame you into giving something because it’s for a good cause.  Either way if you run into them it’s best not to converse and just walk away as fast as you can or pop into a shop.

I’m super grateful for the guy near the Eiffel Tower who I got to walk with. But the absolutely worst time I had with them was waiting for the Roissy airport bus. I waited for maybe 20 minutes with a growing amount of people around me also waiting for the bus and they came in droves every couple of minutes. Because I looked like I was alone they came up to me at least 5 times within that twenty minute period specifically and stopped. Most of the time if I just shook my head and didn’t look at them they’d go away, but I had one who gave me the dirtiest look when I refused to talk to her after she’d tapped my shoulder. I couldn’t go anywhere, I needed to take the bus to the airport. So I just held my stuff close and tried to make sure nothing was accessible. They finally left me alone when another actual tourist asked me if I spoke English and was going to the airport and started telling me the awful time she’d had trying to find the airport bus.

It seemed like they were only targeting women who were on their own.

This of course doesn’t mean don’t talk to strangers who ask if you speak English. It does mean to have your guard up though, especially if they’ve got a clipboard. In my case outside of the bus stop waiting for the airport more often then not people were lost and needing directions. But because people are use to the “do you speak English” being a lead to getting pick pocketed a lot of people weren’t getting helped. One guy near the Eiffel Tower asked if I knew anywhere to buy a jacket nearby because on the coldest windiest morning he was out as if he’d packed for a business meeting somewhere tropical rather than France in winter, and we both realized there was nothing nearby except one tourist spot selling sweaters. Also due to the strikes a lot of Parisans would ask me about when the bus was coming but due to my lack of French I’d lead with a sorry? Which usually they’d re-ask in English except one guy who went “sorry? Sorry?! Sorry!” as if he’d never heard such a ridiculous thing before in his life before leaving in a huff. And then there was the Puerto Rican mother who had had the worst luck with finding her way around because no one would answer her or stop to help her when she asked for help and who became my airport travel buddy. Thankfully after a lot of asking she did eventually get help but it was after finding non-Parisians who could speak Spanish or English. Sometimes I’d also just have concerned people with tourist maps walk up to me and show me the map and I’d confirm on my phone and point them in the right direction or in cafes when people realized there was no wifi and thus they couldn’t look up their directions as they had hoped.

Anyway just be very careful and make sure all your stuff is zipped up and you’re guarding it well and avoid people with clipboards asking if you speak English trying to collect your signature.

I don’t always write about how my flights to places went. I’ve had awful flight experiences and great experiences. There’s airlines I love and airlines I hate. And generally an airline named after the country it’s from are pretty decent. There is one that’s pretty awful that I hope I never fly again, but that’s besides the point. I took a couple different airlines to and from Paris. I took Korean air to Osaka, and KLM to Amsterdam and then out of Amsterdam. But my Air France trip from Osaka to Paris was magical.

I sat in a row with two women, one Japanese who spoke fluent English, and one Korean who was doing her best. I tried to help with small things like soup and snacks with the words I knew and the woman was delighted I knew some Korean. Lo and behold after some chatting she lives in the same city I live in in Korea and was flying with her daughter who spoke more English but was seated in a different row. On my left side was a French family of four with two small children. The small eldest boy kept getting lost in his wanderings of the aisle so I’d put out my hand and would point towards his row, to the point whenever he’d toddle over he’d first look up at me, confirm it was me, and then head into his row to his seat. It was quite cute. It was also a pretty stressed family since they had two small children who did not want to sit for a 10 hour+ flight and at least one of which kept jumping off to go into the aisle, where he nearly got crushed by the flight attendant with a trolley. (I awkwardly had to put my hand on the guys back because I didn’t know any other fast way to stop him from crushing the kid, but thankfully this was greatly appreciated since he hadn’t seen the child playing in the aisle.)

But the magic of the trip wasn’t just the strange community I felt in my area with small children in the aisle or being walked back and forth down the aisle followed by their parents, as a little girl did followed by her super tall multi-lingual French dad.

The magic resided near the bathrooms and in the fact no one seemed to care if you were up and out of your seat. On most flights there seems to be some annoyance to if you’re up and about. You’re constantly in someones way or in their bubble of space if you’re up. It’s only acceptable if you’re out of the way and waiting for the bathroom. But this Air France flight I was on did not care. No one batted an eye, no one complained, no flight attendant told anyone to remain in their seats or to go back, unless there was turbulence and it was unsafe. In fact the area around the bathrooms was made into what felt like, as a young Japanese boy said to us, a party.

Rather than go up and down the aisles multiple times offering water and snacks they set it up near the bathrooms as a self serve area, which some people knew and others didn’t. It took me awhile to get use to the idea. People stood around helping themselves to water, juice and soda and chatting with the people around them. Organically moving to adjust for new people or to let others pass or the flight attendants access their supplies. But there was never any pressure to return to our seats, something I doubted the Japanese boy ever did since every time I came back he was still there, chatting with someone new. About part way through the flight snacks were brought out and at first I thought it was the attendant preparing to walk them down the aisles and returned to my seat only to realize it was self serve. So what had been a big box of sandwiches and momiji manju, when I returned with my seat neighbor and her daughter was now just mars chocolates and ice cream. There was also self serve packets of soup and hot chocolate.

I really greatly enjoyed that flight. I liked getting to chat with other people on the flight who were extremely friendly. The family to my left even gave me a Japanese rolled up cookie part way through the flight. I’m sure to some people having the kids in the aisle and unable to sit still was annoying, especially for the people in front of them and behind them but sitting off to the side was totally fine and I had a very peaceful and fun flight and I hope to one day get to enjoy the magic of that self serve snack and drink section again.

When I was in junior high school and high school we had two options for languages. Spanish and French. Before we decided on one we had to take both for a 1/3rd of a semester. The majority of my grade took Spanish, but on the very first day I was determined that I would not take Spanish. Not because of a lack of interest in the language or a true love of French but because the teacher spoke in monotone without any inflection whatsoever and I feared I’d fall asleep in his class and fail. So I took French and I took it for the entirety of high school, becoming one of the few kids in Independent French which was like self-study where we read and translated books. You would think because I was in French club and in such high levels of French classes that I’d drop into Paris without any concern for the language. But I’ve been in South Korea for 5 years. And in college rather than continuing French I dabbled in other languages like Japanese and a short stint in ASL. All of this has made my French super rusty to the point I sat on the flight shaking my mental language piggy bank for the French I remembered. Bonjour (hello/good morning), Excusez-moi (excuse me), s’il vous plâit (please), au revoir (goodbye), ça va? (It’s okay?), Je m’appelle Lauren. (My name is Lauren) Je suis américaine. (I am an American) Parlez voux anglais? (Do you speak English?) merci beaucoup (thank you very much).

It was better than I feared. But still, on my flight there was a mini French course and I threw myself into that in the hopes of jogging my memory. I remembered more than I had expected when confronted with the games and quizzes. The little song we did for the months of the year was still there and I remembered about half of the days of the week. But when confronted with actual sentences while I did well with the tests and quizzes they didn’t stick. Which meant most of my interactions started with a French greeting,  and then delved into my request in English or stumbling to read what it was I wanted to order, and then ending in a French thank you. Which is kind of disappointing. It makes me wonder how I would’ve fared if I’d gone on the French trip in high school. (

Though no one else signed up for the French trip while I was in high school so I don’t think it would’ve happened anyway.) But like most major cities there was a lot of English around and people who spoke English.

Reading blogs made it sound like you needed to announce loudly to every single person you saw Bonjour! or they’d instantly shut off and treat you with disdain. I found as long as I said bonjour first before stating what I wanted I was usually fine. I didn’t have to say bonjour to every staffer I possibly saw which was what one blog I read suggested, after all usually they were busy. I did however say it to the front desk of my hotel every morning and tried to remember to switch to Bonsoir whenever evening rolled around. But I also had wifi that worked 90% of my trip so I didn’t get lost and usually was in touristy areas so I could ask an information desk for help with whatever I was lost with. The only time I ran into “rude” Parisians was when they were super busy and I didn’t find it that rude. It was just more of a bored or quick tone. But I do agree with saying hello or good evening in French and a nice merci in there to help show some respect to the country you’re visiting.

I’m actually really glad I went to Paris this January. I had a really good, though exhausting time.

A Solo Trip to Paris I've spent a lot of time waffling this year back and forth between traveling or not. On the one hand I'm heading home in March and I should be saving my money to help get me through until I find a job and have health insurance and try to figure out what it means to be an adult in America.

[thesevillereport]

In Focus: Market Recovery Pt.1

On April 17, 2020 the S&P 500 closed up for the second week in a row. After the major market sell off that started February 20, 2020, and wiped out three years of market gains in a month, a normal person would think that all investors would rejoice two weeks of bullish markets, but that's not the case.

Wall street is divided on the current state of the markets. Some investors believe the market lows of March 23, 2020 set the bottom for the coronavirus market sell off. Since putting in that low, the S&P 500 has risen just over 28% as of April 17, 2020. On the other side of the coin, some investors believe that the markets quick rise is too much too soon, and the rally will peter out sending the markets to revisit the low from March 23, or even worse make new lows.

It took the S&P 500 all of 2019 to increase 30%, and the S&P 500 recently moved 28% higher over the last 18 trading days. Is that type of move in the markets sustainable? Can this recent market momentum take the S&P 500 back to where it was on February 19, 2020 (3,386.15)?

The likely answer to both questions is no. This move is not sustainable, and this current momentum will not take markets back to their all time highs.

When I think of what's taken place over the last 18 days, I still remain very pessimistic about this short-term market bounce. When I consider what's taken place since March 23, there were very few things that warrant an optimistic mindset towards the markets in the short term. The Global number of coronavirus related deaths have jumped from over 16,000 to over 153,000 between March 23 and April 17 according to OurWorldData. There are grumblings, but nothing official that China severely understated the number of deaths caused by the virus, and that the country's death toll alone could be in the millions. States are still fighting or testing kits and ventilators. Unemployment continues to move up quickly, with over 6 million U.S. workers filing for unemployment benefits two weeks ago, and another five million plus filing for benefits last week. In addition to the unemployment number continuing to increase, the stimulus money earmarked for small businesses has run out. Places like Japan and Singapore are seeing a second wave of COVID-19 cases in their country; and while shelter-in-place has worked in parts of the U.S. to slow the spread, other parts of the U.S. are fighting their local governments to resume their normal lives, which could put many who are trying their best to stay safe in jeopardy.

What bullish investors have gathered over the same period of time is that the number of coronavirus cases has peaked, and that the curve is flattening. These same investors have also been enthusiastic about President Trump's ideas of reopening the economy in the very near term. The Federal Reserves' save the economy at all cost approach has also given investors reason to get bullish. Also, the unemployment number dropping from six million two weeks ago to five million last week has sparked a small part of the bull run. In addition there is also the news that Gilead Sciences' (GILD) drug remdesivir has seen favorable results in treating people with COVID-19. In my view the news coming out of Gilead is the only thing to be somewhat excited about, I believe overreacting to curve flattening could lead to more unexpected market losses for overly bullish investors in the near term.  

The fundamentalists in me wants to say markets aren't currently reflecting the underlying fundamentals, but if I'm honest with myself markets haven't reflected the underlying fundamentals for some time. Prior to the pandemic Apple shares traded to over $320 per share based on the iPhone + 5G story, which was and is a very weak story. None the less investors piled in. The Seville Report has been holding Apple since early 2018 and bought more in late 2018, and early 2019. I wasn't complaining that so many investors wanted to give me $320 for something I paid $160 for, but it was the moment I realized investors are grasping for anything to invest in a big name.

I should admit though that I am like the crazy scientist at the beginning of the movie telling you something bad is coming and that now is the time for overreaction. I don't feel we're anywhere close to being all-clear from this pandemic. I also think any move to rush back to normal will result in governments making things worse for themselves and their citizens.

Many investors and market strategists continue to look back at 2008 and 2009 for the signs that signaled March 9, 2009 was the bottom of the Great Recession. In 2008-2009 the economy still functioned, stores were still opened, people who had the means could still go to restaurants, bars, and the movies, those with less means didn't stop going to restaurants, bars, or movies, they just skipped the appetizer, ordered one or two less drinks, and saw the matinee.

Our current situation is vastly different. NYC looks like a ghost town. Those with and without means have been ordered to stay home. Those people with means will have money to spend when stay-at-home orders are lifted, but they may have fewer places to spend their money. Those with little means could have even less when stay-at-home orders are lifted, and they could be facing a tougher job market than the one that existed a year ago.

Shelter in place isn't stopping everyone though. Some restaurants have been able to make a go of it by doing deliveries, but bars are closed, clubs are closed, movie theaters are closed. This pandemic has hit the service industry and its workers especially hard. Overly bullish investors are investing now on a "this is the worst it can get" thesis and I don't think that is at all true.

I still believe we will have a financial fallout after it's all said and done, and any move to shorten shelter in place guidelines in an attempt to restart the economy will make the financial fall out on the back half of this pandemic even worse.

The millions of unemployed American's won't be rushing out to buy the iPhone 12 or the Surface Pro this year. Christmas will likely look a little different, with retailers doing less business on Black Friday and Cyber Monday than they had in past years. The instant economic snap-back that investors are eagerly anticipating and betting on isn't what I see happening, and that is why I'm still cautions about going all in, or claiming we've hit a bottom.

But Still Investing

I'm still investing though, I've never been an investor who tries to time the markets. I've been taking small bites of the stocks that were featured in our latest quarterly newsletter. I've moved some money into oil using the United States Oil Fund (USO) as my investment vehicle, because I don't think WTI crude oil stays under $20 per barrel forever.  I've taken small bites of some beaten down bank stocks. Thanks to deregulation, banks are into everything, and in the U.S. if you want to live the American Dream, you'll likely need a bank to do it. Uber (UBER) has also made my hit list of things to buy on the cheap. I'm nibbling at the markets because my theory that things will get worse could be wrong.

This current divide in Wall Street is just one more in a long line of disagreements investors and analysts typically have. I'm on the side that believes this current rally in markets is too much too soon and not supported by the available information, scientific or economic.

I'm not telling investors not to invest here at these levels, but I am giving a warning to proceed with caution. The decisions made over the next few weeks by governments can make this another month or two of hell or another four to five months of hell, and at four or five months of shelter in place, the U.S. economy could take years to recover.

Invest with your head and not over it, and please stay safe.

[jacks-tracks]

Saigon

The 13 hour bus ride was actually 16 hours long, leaving on time at 11 pm, and crossing Cambodia in the night. Probably safer in the dark as headlights showed the oncoming traffic, and the day time fleets of motorcycles all went home. The “flat” seats were reclined to 30 degrees, padded, and made for people 5 feet tall. My feet slid under the seat in front everytime the bus braked, and I would weasel my way back up the incline, drop off to sleep again, and awake with the next slide. And it was not a through bus, but stopped in Phnom Pen to change to a day bus, and load a bunch more people. Both buses were spacious, double seats on one side, single the other, with the night bus double decked by bunk beds. Little blankets, bottle of water, a tasteless bun.. luxury! 3 hour layover in PP, totally boring like all bus stations, trying to stay awake to guard bags, despite having taken a “U Dream herbal pill”. More flat land, more overcrowding, one hell of a lot of rice. We did cross the mighty Mekong river, as wide as the Fraser  but slower and muddier. The Vietnam border was better organized, only 1 hour to process all the passengers.  And so into Saigon (aka Ho Chi MInh city) at 5 pm. Endless urban sprawl, but we left behind the drifts and mounds of plastic, all kept clean here. I even recognized some of the places from last trip, but soon swept past them to a new area closer to the river where the bus stopped curbside and dumped us all on the sidewalk. Yes Saigon has sidewalks, not all filled with pushcarts and vendors. Indeed some walkways were 20 feet wide and posed an impossible temptation to the motorcyclists, who simply jumped the curb and barreled  along the cement. Bit brain dead, but I changed some money at a dealer, and found the bus office had a travel agent. Now most travel agents are hacks who sell packages and tours. This fellow actually knew how to book buses and planes, spoke good English, and spent an hour getting my ongoing tickets. Absolutely no train seats, and all the buses were full, no tickets at all. Against my principles I had to buy a plane ticket to Quoy Nhon. Got my cheap red eye flight to Manila in February, and a train sleeper ticket from Hue to Saigon at the end of this run26 hours but lower berth with a window. So I do get a train ride after all. My own efforts to buy tickets were stymied by having no printer to produce a pass, and no phone to show the ticket on. I am the last person in Asia to not have a phone, and for tickets and pictures it would have been a good choice.

Saigon is safe but the sex trade is hot. Next to the agents stand five scantily clad women had blocked the sidewalk and were literally grabbing passing men. No takers while I was there, it was early, but the travel agent assured me that sitting there long enough he saw everything possible happen on the street. I’ve been hit on by some girlyboys, and called to by dozens of massage girls, nearly walked into a place falsely labelled a barber shop( the lady barbers were in night wear), and seen some blatent come ons. I do not approve of sex for sale, degrading women. It’s quite normal here with women fromfarm villages coming to town for  couple of years to put kids through school and support familys. Laughable to see middle aged white guys with 20 something girls holding hands as they amble along, he with a blissful smile, her checking her phone on the off side lining up the next pigeon.

    Taxied to my hotel ( the agent got me a “Grab Car”) Asian version of Uber, and could not find the correct Soi(alley) but I got out a hoofed till I found the entrance, a little paved path between buildings, lined with closed shops, and tiny hotels. Mine had a code lock door, no staff, and  a coded lock box for the room key. Lovely little room, maybe the nicest yet. AC, hot shower, big window on second floor, very quiet, TV, fridge and nice queen size bed, all for $14 US. A brief excursion back to the street got me a french roll filled with chicken salad, and so to bed, exhausted. My plans to tour the parks the next day were overeaching. I did find a cart on the street selling Pho, that delicious chicken soup, noodles sprouts and cilantro slurped on a tiny stool right on the sidewalk. The couple selling the Pho did a terrific business with office workers lining up for take out,  motocyclists driving up to get soup in a bag, and what I thought were dozens of flashily uniformed security guards, who actually were the guys who park the motorcycles in 3 deep packed rows outside the businesses, for a parking fee of course. I wanted a hait trim but the shop across the alley from my hotel was permanently busy and the “barber shop” was selling more than a trim.  After a lunch baguette I found a legitimate salon and got my split ends nipped off. I bought some takeaway for the next days travel, wandered the side streets, overarched with big leafy trees, and got lost in a maze of alleys. My internal compass works and I found the Main drag in a bit. Seemed a short day, still sleep deprived, so early night.

More Pho in the morning(repeat customer gets bigger bowl, still $1.50), the packed (crammed )  my packs and taxied to the airport 3 hours early. Did I say that everyone in Vietnam goes home fotr Tet? Well half of them were at that airport! One hour toget checked in, through surging crowds, pushing grannies, and squealing children. My flight gate got changed 3 times, was 1 hour late, and surprisingly I and My bags mad it to Quy Nhon. As I’d hoped there was a shuttle the 20K to town, and a toothless pirate on a cla

pped out Honda bike rocketed me to my destination.  We nearly got blown off the longest bridge in Vietnam, gale force winds, coughed into the gas station on fumes ( I paid for the gas) and thanks to good online directions found the beach here.

 This really is the little fishing village at the end of the road, maybe 6 tourists in a town of 500. The hotel is right on the beach, almost no English spoken, but plenty of goodwill. I have a 16  bed dorm to myself ($5) hot water, AC,power at my reading light, and after 9 just the sound of the surf. AHHH! So for 2 days  i have been eating delicious seafood, piles of tropical fruit, and doing my onward trip planning. With Tet this weekend all stops, so I will lay over till next week.  The staff invited me to a cermony here. Table laden with food, offerings and joss sticks. The all women staff brought in a guy to do the service, and he burnt the paper money, old bills, and joss sticks.Poured oil and high test booze on the flames(in a bucket), whoosh away goes the old, and room is made for the new and good fortune. A brief prayer, and we ate the food(practical). I thanked them profusely for including me.

   My twice daily beach walk collects a string of little kids, and saying Hello. We trade names, giggle and carry on. Even the dogs are friendly. Of course I say hello to everyone who will meet my eye, and try my fractured Vietnamese. Hilarity. Caused a stir when I went to the morning market and bought fruit and veg for the layover. Shy women, cheap food, good variety. I even found little packagesof yogurt! So all’s well, Beach time....