#but if you are good at pattern recognition or following timelines at all i think you would follow the same train of thought

[tooate]

if i were to make an observation as to maybe why a ball player in particular is showing signs of distress, are you guys going to think critically about it and weigh the option of it being true or false or are you guys going to fucking bite me

[voidsaez]

◞ ྀི◟ ͜ ׁ ˙ ◞ ྀི◟ ͜ ◞ ྀི◟ ͜ ׁ ˙ ◞ ྀི◟ ͜ ◞ ྀི◟ ͜ ׁ ˙ ◞ ྀི◟ ͜ ◞ ྀི ◞

— lifetime #38 ( colin ritman x reader ) major char death !!

a/n : bare with me this is my first time posting + made a version w colin’s pov but idk if i like it

summary : colin falls in love with you, but no matter how many times he tries, he loses you in every lifetime.

Timeline #38 - July 14, 1984 at 9:07am

your pov :

I walked into the office, the faint sound of pens tapping and keyboards clicking the only thing filling the silent atmosphere.

Holding a bag over my shoulder, I scan the room to look for the supervisor. Thakur, his name, was it? He approaches me.

He speaks cheerfully, “New hire, yeah? Y/N? Nice to meet you, I’m Mohan Thakur.”

“Welcome to tuckersoft, we’re all pretty uh, unorthodox here, you’ll fit right in.”

I smile politely, trying to be nice while having no idea what to expect from an office full of guys who’re all stuck in their minds.

He jerks his head over to the other side of the office as he speaks up. “Let’s get you settled in. You’ll be next to Colin Ritman. He’s one of our brilliant minds, a bit quirky, but you’ll get used to him.” He says.

I give him a silent nod as I make my way to approach the desk, the man is too delved in his monitor to even realize I’m approaching him.

After standing there for a while, in silence, I speak up. “Hi, sorry, I’m Y/N, the new hire.”

The man- Colin, doesn’t look away from his monitor as his finger taps on the desk.

“Doesn’t matter, none of it does.” He mutters under his breath, barely audible. I didn’t understand and I didn’t really want to.

Still, I take a step closer, “Sorry, what was that?” I ask, looking at him.

He looks up at me, smiling unusually, but for a second, there’s a split moment wherein I can see some sort of recognition in his gaze, which was odd. I’ve never seen him before, at least I didn’t think so.

He swivels his chair slightly to turn over to me, taking the cigar out of his lips as he extends his arm for me. “I’m Colin, yeah?”

I swallow, nodding, “Yeah, Y/N, game design.” I say, taking a peek at his computer monitor “Looks intense.”

He smiles cryptically, his gaze following mine at the computer. ‘BANDERSNATCH’

“It is, but it doesn’t really matter. Every choice leads to the same end, you’ll see soon enough.” He says, grinning.

I raise my eyebrow, intrigued by the concept, It was odd. “Well maybe I like a good challenge, let me see.”

He moved over slightly, giving me enough space to stand next to him as I looked down at his glowing monitor.

“It’s more than just a game, really. It gives you the illusion of free will, when in reality, all the choices lead you to the same ending. Ever feel like you’re repeating things? like you’ve done it before?”

I was left a bit unsure on how to respond, I was expecting normal first-day small talk.

“Isn’t that what making games is kinda like? trying out different outcomes and seeing what works.” I say.

“Maybe.” He says, taking a drag of his cigarette as he speaks back up. “Or maybe it’s something else we’re stuck in, some game we don’t realize we’re in.”

I smile, letting out a soft chuckle. This guy really was a quirky one.

“Lucky for you, I’m good at solving patterns. Maybe I could help you break the loop.” I say, smiling softly.

His eyes narrow, a soft smile tugging at the corners of his lips as he nods.

“I wouldn’t count on it.” He says after a long exhale, looking up at me.

After a brief pause, I speak up. “Well, I’ll leave you to it, then.” I say, giving him a polite nod as I make my way to my cubicle.

Timeline #38 - July 21, 1984 at 10:36pm

your pov :

It’s late, and most of the office is empty. only him and I are left, working on our respective projects. The office’s dimly lit and the only sound is the faint hum of the computer fans.

“I swear some of these games are puzzles designed to make you lose your mind.” I say, stretching back as I yawn.

Colin looks over at me, a small smile tugging at the corners of his lips.

“That’s the point. Life’s a puzzle too, the more you try to solve it, the deeper you fall into the hole.” He says.

I raise an eyebrow at him, intrigued but by this point, used to his behavior.

“Is that why you’re so — existential all the time? you think we’re in some unsolvable game?” I ask.

He pauses, looking at me as if he had something serious to say.

“What if I told you, you’ve said that before?” He questions.

I chuckle. “Déjà vu? Happens to the best of us.” I say, not taking him seriously.

His smile fades, and for a second, it doesn’t feel like a joke anymore. “No, not déjà vu. We’ve had this conversation before, 37 times. In different timelines.” He says.

I lean back in my chair, confused. “Okay, now you’re just messing with me.”

He leans back, pulling away as he returns to his project. “Forget it, you wouldn’t believe me anyways.” He sighs.

Timeline #38 - July 27, 1984 at 1:47am

your pov :

Walking down the empty streets of London at night, discussing our game mechanics and creative ideas.

“You know, I think you’re over complicating it. Not every choice has to lead to some dark spiral.” I say, nodding.

“In your game, maybe, but not in mine. No matter what I do, it’ll always end the same.” He says.

I smile at that, despite his serious demeanor.

Timeline #38 - Aug 2, 1984 at 11:27pm

your pov :

Tapping my pencil on the desk, I start to notice Colin’s behavior. He seemed nervous, waiting for something. Maybe he was just on something, eitherway I was concerned.

“You’ve been acting weird, is everything alright, Colin?” I ask, growing worried.

He stiffens, speaking in a serious tone. “No, no it’s not.” He shakes his head.

“There’s something I need to tell you, but I’m not sure you’ll believe me.” He says.

“Colin, what’s wrong?” I ask, scared.

He doesn’t look at me, but he speaks up. “We’re living in a simulation. And I’ve lived through this moment, through us, over and over again. Every time, I meet you. Every time, I lose you somehow.” He says.

What was he talking about? He can’t be serious. I was trying to process his words, trying to laugh it off, but his desperation made it seem as if it wasn’t a joke anymore.

“Colin, I-“ Before I can speak, something happens, a glitch of sorts.

There’s a flicker in the lighting, in the computers around us. His eyes widen.

“No, no, not yet. Not again.” He says, at this point, he was scaring me.

When the glitch grew worse, the numbers in the walls started growing more visible. He pulled me by my wrists, bringing me closer.

“Listen to me. When this resets, you won’t remember any of this. But I will. I’ll find you again. I always do.” He says, leaving me nothing but confused.

“Colin, wh- what’re you talking about?” I ask, frantically wanting to understand him.

The room begins to destabilize, pixels and light warping around us as the room starts to collapse. His grip tightens.

“I love you, I’m sorry, I wish you could remember, I wish I could save you.” He says, but when I try to respond, things start fading away.

I try to pull away, feeling nothing but fear and confusion as everything around us begins to fade into white noise.

Timeline #39 - July 14, 1984 at 9:07am

your pov :

I walked into the office, the faint sound of pens tapping and keyboards clicking the only thing filling the silent atmosphere.

Holding a bag over my shoulder, I scan the room to look for the supervisor. Thakur, his name, was it? He approaches me.

He speaks cheerfully, “New hire, yeah? Y/N? Nice to meet you, I’m Mohan Thakur.”

“Welcome to tuckersoft, we’re all pretty uh, unorthodox here, you’ll fit right in.”

I smile politely, trying to be nice while having no idea what to expect from an office full of guys who’re all stuck in their minds.

He jerks his head over to the other side of the office as he speaks up. “Let’s get you settled in. You’ll be next to Colin Ritman. He’s one of our brilliant minds, a bit quirky, but you’ll get used to him.” He says.

I give him a silent nod as I make my way to approach the desk, the man is too delved in his monitor to even realize I’m approaching him.

After standing there for a while, in silence, I speak up. “Hi, sorry, I’m Y/N, the new hire.”

He looks at me almost immediately, as if he was expecting me. He doesn’t seem happy.

“Yeah .. I know.” He says.

◞ ྀི◟ ͜ ׁ ˙ ◞ ྀི◟ ͜ ◞ ྀི◟ ͜ ׁ ˙ ◞ ྀི◟ ͜ ◞ ྀི◟ ͜ ׁ ˙ ◞ ྀི◟ ͜ ◞ ྀི ◞

[astral-circuitry-writes]

Sunday Six !!!

tagging upfront, so nobody has to actually read my (very long, bc it's exciting to write a little again) fic bit to get to my tags: @scopophil @sequentialprophet @sybilius @kalgalen and of course My Muse who is responsible for this AU I'm playing around in @chetungwan - i tbh have no idea if any of you are writing anything atm, i'm very out of the loop, but if you wanted to share, i'd love to read it !! likewise if you see this and i didn't tag you, i'd still love to see what you're doing !!

anyway, i'm writing Gravity Falls fic (featuring the Vaguest Possible Book of Bill spoilers bc i haven't actually read it yet), which i'm sure everyone who follows me explicitly signed up for,

---

The thing about studying different potential kinds of futures is that if anybody's ignorant enough to need the concept or what exactly it is he’s doing explained to them, they are likely too stupid to grasp and understand it anyway, so forget all about that.

The other thing about studying different potential kinds of futures though (and of vastly more immediate interest to Bill,) is that if you study enough of them, you'll get really good at pattern recognition (the cognitive process, not the one related to machine learning.)

Which is why Bill can't stand those stupid Pines twins. The ‘small’ edition ones, that is, although he’s starting to think he’ll end up carrying a grudge on the entire bloodline.

They'll ruin everything! Every single time! Even though it should be easy!

Bill figured they'd be child's play to woo and-or force and-or trick into siding with and helping him repair the portal, or build a new one.

However. That thing about studying different potential kinds of futures.

~

It’s science as soon as you write it down, so here: Plans that, reverse-historically, are highly unlikely to work:

attempting to get the twins to turn on and abandon each other (too loyal; too fond of each other, bleh)

attempting to force either of them to help him by threatening the life of the other

attempting to get them to cooperate by promising to give them whatever they want (money, fame, knowledge, girls (for Pine Tree), boys (for Shooting Star), girls again (for Shooting Star (although he should perhaps let her figure that out herself first, right? He’s not entirely sure about etiquette and really doesn’t care too much either)))

~

Sometimes though, it did work! Or, rather: Sometimes though, it will work!

…For a while.

~

Have another list, because Bill’s generous like that: The most likely ultimate outcome of achieving to get the twins to work with-slash-for him:

They teach the Henchmaniacs the concept of unionization. Bill figures out he does not like unionized Henchmaniacs. …Or unions, really

He sees the damned Axolotl look slightly exasperated, which he didn’t know they could do. They blabber something about Back to therapy with you and This is the two hundred and eighty-ninth timeline that ends like this, eventually even you will learn— well, nevermind that one actually, that one’s entirely unimportant, let’s move on, stop looking at this bullet point already

The Henchmaniacs invent the concept of unionization entirely on their own because Shooting Star somehow immediately befriends them and ends up surrounded by an adoring bunch of them and gives them her cute little pep talks including sentences like “If Bill really was your friend, he’d be nicer to you”

The twins betray him the second the portal is built which would of course just be his luck; it’s the same thing their great uncle did after all. Sometimes they find a way to thwart him on their own, sometimes they involve either or both of their uncles (which... embarrassing! Stanford Pines, alright; he's at least smart. But the other one... Bill would rather die than have his plans spoiled by a no-good conman who can't get over the fact that his parents never loved him)

~

So. Bill can't stand them, and the smart thing to do would be to drop it and find somebody else to work with. Obviously.

Bill is very smart. Obviously.

So, obviously, he'll find a way to make this work. Obviously!

(Step 1: stop studying different potential kinds of futures to forget about the pattern recognition thing. Aaaand done. That one's easy.)

~

On the floor of their room, between their bed: a photo of Mabel. Surrounding it: Eight lit candles. Mabel's eyes on the polaroid shot: crossed out.

Dipper shivers, forces himself to look away and tightens his grip around the baseball bat he found in the shack (as if it would help) as Mabel starts reciting the words in a voice that is way too chipper considering they're doing something that would probably get them grounded for the rest of the summer if any of the adults ever found out. He has no clue how Mabel could think this is a good idea. …Or how she convinced him it’s not an entirely terrible one worth shutting down immediately.

He closes his eyes and takes a deep breath when he notices the faint blue glow illuminating Mabel’s immediate surroundings. When he opens them again—

“Hi, Bill.” Mabel politely waves at the floating triangle hovering between herself and Dipper. Bill politely waves back, which makes Dipper want to swing his baseball bat at him immediately. While he's contemplating how mad Mabel could possibly be at him if he went through with his first instinct—

(”Pleeaaase, Dipper, he told me it's really, really, really important. And said you'd might want to hear what he has to say, too.”

“Of course he'd say that! You can't trust him!”

“Duh, I don't, of course I don’t. But! I am curious! Aren't you?"

“…”

“Look, I promise if he tries anything shifty, we’ll just yell for Grunkle Stan and Ford immediately. Plus, we beat him before! …Maybe he’s got something interesting to say. Something you could add to your notebook even! Maybe! We won’t know if we don’t try!”

"..."

"I'm not gonna make you, of course. If you really don't want to, he can just talk to me in my dreams."

“No! No, the last thing I want is you talking to him alone. ...Fine! But if anything goes wrong—”

“Nothing will go wrong, I'm sure of it. Just, try to be nice to him for ten minutes, I think he's not very used to people being nice to him. When he came into my dream—I told you I dreamed of having a tea party with my stuffed animals, right? When I offered him a cup of tea, he seemed kind of surprised.”)

—Bill whirls around and gives him finger guns.

“Pine Tree! So glad you made it! No hard feelings about the sock opera story, I assume? Great! I knew you were the reasonable type!”

“You didn't let me answer.” Dipper forces the words out between grit teeth. Mabel gives him a pleading look over what isn’t quite Bill’s shoulder, because Bill’s a stupid triangle nightmare demon. He sighs, mumbles, “No hard feelings for right now.” He emphasizes that last part both with his voice and by tightening his grip around the bat.

Bill either doesn’t notice the implied threat or simply doesn’t care—either way, he completely ignores it. He just winks at Dipper. Or blinks. It's hard to tell.

“So, you said you wanted to talk to us…?” Mabel flops down on the floor, crosses her legs, props an elbow up on her right knee and her chin on her hand, attentive, curious, ready to listen. Dipper in the meantime kind of feels like throwing up and is sure if he did right now his racing heart would jump right out of his mouth too. …Ew, gross. He has to get it together.

“Hold on,” he gets out. His voice doesn’t even shake that much. “Before you tell us whatever you wanted to tell us… If you—if you try to use this opportunity to possess Mabel—”

“Geez, kid, you gotta relax,” Bill interrupts him. “I promised her I wouldn’t. It’s not my fault I can’t show up without being invited. Which is what this visit is about, actually, what a coincidence!”

[shaymcsudonim]

Black Clover as a Deconstruction of the Shonen Heroes Journey

(Readmore break isn’t working for me. Will try to fix later. Press J to skip.)

So, most people have noticed this pattern in Black Clover...

...and, to be fair, so did I, when I first started watching. 

I saw the first five or six episodes, went, ‘tHiS iS wIzArD nArUtO,’ then didn’t watch any more for months, until I finally got bored enough to watch the rest for laughs. 

And then, of course, I got blown away by the genuine bonds of affection and respect between the characters.

(also, I eventually got used to Asta’s yelling, so that helped).

But, until you put in the time investment, you don’t put the dots together that Black Clover is actually a deconstruction of the Shonen Manga Heroes Journey. 

You can see pieces of it in Patri and the Cult of Personality he that built in the Eye of the Midnight Sun. 

Though, admittedly, it’s less obvious in Fana, Rhya, and Vetto, who are all blinded by grief to the point where they’ve all but lost any compassion they originally possessed. 

Indeed, the entire point of them in the first arc is that they’ve been traumatized enough to invert their personalities completely.

No, this extreme devotion to a single figurehead was best demonstrated in the three main humans in the Eye of the Midnight Sun: Sally, Valtos, and Rades. 

The three of them demonstrated fanatical loyalty to Patri: Valtos because he saved him, Sally because he allows her to pursue her passions, and Rades I’m pretty sure it was just because Patri gave him the opportunity to use his magic freely. 

This ‘cult of personality’ tactic, of course, is one very often employed by Shonen Protagonists, because it’s much easier than showing the character development necessary to turn an enemy into a genuine ally. 

And, while I was committed to seeing the show through unless it got really stupid, there was also a sense. of, ‘oh, now the darkness starts’ when Patri sacrificed his three human followers to further his own plans. That this cold-blooded sacrifice was a part of the plan all along. 

Honestly, I think the first place I truly started to have faith in Tabata’s writing was when Rades resurrected himself, Valtos, and Sally. The pieces had all been there from the start. We all knew that his magic was zombie magic. 

But It was also patently obvious that those three were sacrificed to demonstrate Patri’s assholeish nature to the audience, and reduce the number of characters, making the logistics of the upcoming fights simpler. So, while I wasn’t happy about the gratuitous death, I had accepted it.

But then Rades said, ‘no, I am the hero of my own story, and my story is about revenge,’ and I cannot tell you how wide I smiled. It wasn’t just Rades saying that, it was Tabata saying that he values his side characters, even the minor 1st arc villains. 

Then there’s the Zogratis siblings, the fact that they’re siblings, in the truest sense of the word. They fight together, they rule together, they’re more than capable of executing a multi-pronged attack which must have required extensive planning and teamwork. Even Zenon, the coldest of the three, goes to check on Dante, and saves him from the Black Bulls. 

Though we’ve yet to get the full picture, they even seem to have good relationships with their devils. Zenon’s a brick wall, of course, but Dante and Lucifero clearly talk to each other, and Megicula and Vanica openly express affection for one another. From what we’ve seen so far, the Zogratis siblings seem to, at the bare minimum, respect each other and the devils that they host. 

They’re still blood knights who would cause the apocalypse for the sake of finding strong opponents, yeah, but wanting ‘to fight strong opponents and help my friends’ has been the primary motive of many an anime protagonist. It just usually gets tempered by common sense and/or compassion.

So, with the major villains at least, they exemplify many of the virtues often given to anime protagonists. Not to say that they don’t have flaws, but their flaws are not those of the typical villain.

In contrast, many of the Heroes in Black Clover possess attributes normally seen in villains. 

Consider the Black Bulls: Asta, the Freak of Nature; Noelle the Unfavorite Noble Child; Magna, the Thug; Luck, the Blood Knight; Gauche, the Sexual Deviant; Vanessa, the Drunk; Finral, the Womanizer; Grey, the Shapeshifter; Charmy, the Glutton; Gordon, the Creepy Guy; Zora, the Avenger; Henry the Vampire. 

(Also Nacht, the Summoner, though the jury’s still out on him)

Asta’s comrades are all people who easily could have been villains, whether through their powers, their personalities, or simply their trauma.

But they weren’t. And this is at least partly due to another aspect of the series that I admire. 

Everyone is special.

[ID: Emmet from the Lego Move next to a quote reading, “You don’t have to be the bad guy. You are the most TALENTED, most INTERESTING, and most EXTRAORDINARY person in the universe. AND YOU ARE CAPABLE OF AMAZING THINGS. because you are the Special. And so am I. And so is everyone. The prophecy is made up, but it’s also true. It’s about all of us. Right now, it’s about you. And you can still change everything.” end ID]

That is to say, the villains aren’t the only ones to have aspects attributed to the typical shonen protagonist. And neither is Asta, as it turns out. He gets determination, resilience, and compassion, of course, but he’s far from the only one. 

In fact, his journey is made far easier by the ‘compassionate protagonists’ who came before him.

Starting as far back as we can in the timeline, we’re left with the Clover Nobles and their xenocide against the elves. Evil, tragic, and it should have never happened. Not to mention, it allowed the Nobles to hoard resources in the form of stolen mana, which they then passed on to their descendants. 

But, even after the worst had happened, Nero and Lumiere’s sacrifices eventually led to Zagred’s downfall. (And to the survival of one of Licht and Tetia’s children.)

Then, centuries later, came Zara Ideale. A man who worked tirelessly as the first commoner wizard cop, only to be killed by his elitist comrades in the purple orcas.

This could have led his son, Zora Ideale, down a dark path, but instead he devoted his life to protecting the citizens of the kingdom from the same corrupt magic knights that got his father killed.  

And that’s without even mentioning how when Julius Novachrono became Wizard King, he reformed the merit recognition system to mitigate the amount of harm the noble magic knights could do to their commoner comrades’ careers, to prevent what happened to Zara from happening to others. In the present day, multiple magic knight captains (Yami and Jack) are commoners, as are many of the magic knights in general. 

Not to mention Yami, in particular, formed a squad out of outcasts, to provide the support system that he never had as a young man. 

And all of this happened before the main character has even started on his heroes journey.

I could say a lot more words about how this demonstrates Tabata’s recognition of the fact that many of the problems with the Homestuck Quadrant Kingdoms are systemic, and that they won’t be solved with only a few good people working against them, which is why Asta still has a lot to do in his own quest to be Wizard King. 

...but really, what I wanted to do was say that, after reading the 267 leaks, it doesn’t surprise me one bit that AMD may be a better person than previously implied by the manga.

(heck, they did the same thing with Zora, when he was introduced).

Even though AMD seems motivated by a need for vengeance, is undeniably prone to fits of blackout rage, appears altogether too interested in possessing Asta’s body, and these are, indeed, traits that fit more with the aesthetic of a villain... I’m pretty sure AMD’s got the traumatic backstory of a true anime protagonist.

As I’ve said before, simply having an aspect typically attributed to a hero does not automatically mean AMD will be a fully heroic character. But, as was mentioned before, he also has a lot of common villainous traits.

And in Black Clover, a character with a villain archetype will more often than not side with and/or join the Black Bulls. 

[crackedoutgiraffe]

To the Moon and Back

To the Moon and Back

Part 1 Part 2 Part 3 Part 4 Part 5 Part 6 Part 7 Part 8 Part 9 Part 10 Part 11 Part 12 Part 13 Part 14 Part 15 Part 16 Part 17

A/N: Chapter 18

You and Reid had been together for 10 months. It was everything you’d wanted in a relationship. You knew he was having terrible headaches and was having trouble sleeping. He told you he was talking to a doctor about it.

One morning after he had fallen asleep on the couch, he rushed out of the apartment. He didn’t tell you where he was going. You went into work like normal only to find everyone gathered around Spencer in the bullpen. You took a seat and waited for someone to start talking. Reid looked horrible, he was disheveled and his hair was a mess.

“He thinks he'll get away with this, and he might,” Reid started, his voice was breaking as he spoke. “I have a wealth of knowledge I should be applying to this case. Behavioral patterns of violent stalkers. Tactical recovery strategies. Victim survival odds. But right now I can't focus on anything more than 4 seconds at a time. Which makes me the dumbest person in the room. So... Please help me. Help me find her.”

“We don't know if we have a case. So we'll be working on personal time. Does anybody want to leave?” Hotch looked around for signs of disagreement. “Good. Let's get to work.” Everyone filed away from the desks. You left the bullpen and head for the bathrooms.

Reid could probably see the betrayal on your face. He followed you out of the bullpen. When he caught up with you, he grabbed your arm and pulled you into a hug, “I’m sorry,” he whispered. “I should have told you earlier,” he let you go.

“Is there anything else I should know?” you asked with a straight face.

“She told me she loved me,” you scoffed. “But I need you to know that I love you,” He pulled you into another hug. “I love you, not her.”

“I love you too,” you wrapped your arms around him. “Let’s catch this guy.”

The two of you walked into the conference room to everyone around the table looking at the letters Reid provided. 

“Based on Maeve's description of the unsub in her letters, he seems like a classically possessive stalker,” Morgan examined one of the letters.

“One who craves validation and recognition. ‘What won't you see me?’ ‘Do you think you're better than me?’ This comes up again and again,” JJ flipped through a few of them.

“So does his suicidal ideation. ‘When I find you, I'm going to kill you, then myself.’” Blake read.

“Murder-suicide is the ultimate ‘I love you’ to these guys,” Rossi scoffed.

“When did the unsub start targeting Maeve?” Hotch asked.

“Maeve said it started out of the blue. My guess is it was some sort of incidental interaction, something she probably wasn't even aware of,” Reid explained.

“That's gonna make the unsub hard to find,” you picked up a letter from the table.

“And Maeve, too, until we know more about her,” Rossi added.

“I found her,” Garcia exclaimed. “There are not many geneticists with that name, but... Dr. Maeve Donovan took a sabbatical from Mendel University 10 months ago.” 

“That fits the timeline,” Blake sighed. 

“Oh, she's a smart cookie,” Garcia typed on her laptop. “She burned her credit history, but her parents rented a loft in the warehouse district 5 days ago.” 

“Did the parents sell their house recently?” Rossi asked. 

Garcia dug deeper into their records,“No.” 

“They might be helping her hide,” Hotch noted. “Morgan, you and JJ go to the loft. Blake and Dave, go to the lab. Y/N, stay here and help Garcia. How clear is your head?” 

“Not very clear,” Reid rubbed his temple.

“I want to talk to her parents, but I want you to observe the interview,” Hotch grabbed a few things from the table.

“Reid. I have a picture of her. Do you want to see what she looks like?” Garcia whispered. 

“No,” he stood up and followed Hotch out. Everyone else got up to leave.

“Alright, Garcia let’s do this,” You pulled out a chair and sat down. “This phrase is interesting, ‘You think you’re better than me?’ who says that.”

“Maybe it's a colleague who’s idea she disproved,” Garcia shrugged.

“Look at lab assistants and anyone pursuing a doctorate in genetics from Mendel University,” you shuffled through the letters while Garcia typed on her computer. Rossi brought you photos to scan through an hour later. You and Garcia walked to her office and started to scan the pictures.

“Ok, I'm sharing something I haven't told anyone. Every time we have a stalking case, I think Rosanna Arquette,” Garcia blurted.

“The whole Arquette family to choose from and you go with Rosanna,” you giggled.

“Of course I go with Rosanna, because Rosanna Arquette was the inspiration for two seminal songs of my childhood. "Rosanna, " by Toto... Obviously. And "In Your Eyes" by Peter Gabriel. Which gives one pause to think of the myriad of ways a man can be obsessed by a woman, and what is she doing in bed to inspire that kind of obsession, and can she teach us? Because I want to know.”

“Whoa,” you were staring at a picture with Maeve’s face scribbled out.

“He went to town on that one. JJ, is that…” Garcia pointed at the black smudge. You quickly got out of your chair and went to find Spence. You handed him the picture.

“I don't get it. I mean, I see the message, ‘I'm obliterating you,’ but we already knew that,” he held the picture up and examined it.

“No, see, it's not about the message. It's about the medium, what he used to draw on her face. Spence... It's black eyeliner. The stalker's a woman. That's why she masked her voice on the phone. That's why Maeve let her into her loft. She thought what we thought, that her stalker was a man,” he grabbed the photo and rushed to Hotch’s office. You walked back to Garcia’s office. “Did you find anything with the lab assistants and doctorate students?” you asked Garcia as you entered. 

“Yeah, I have the list of them pulled up,” she switched to another tab on her computer.

“We can look through it once they give us more information,” you sat down next to her and put on a glove to start going through pictures again. Twenty minutes later, Hotch called and asked you to look into the girlfriend they’d met earlier. Garcia couldn’t find her anywhere. You were looking for Diane Huntington. “Garcia, cross check the name Diane with the research assistants list,” you said, flipping through the photos.

“There are none,” Garcia turned to you.

“How far back did you go?” you returned her gaze.

“Only the current ones.”

“Go back 5 years,” you stood up and went to stand next to her.

Garcia searched through the assistants for five minutes before finally finding her, “Diane Turner.”

You and Garcia quickly went to the conference room to present your findings. Hotch sent Rossi, Reid, and JJ to inspect her apartment. Morgan and Blake went to her office. When Reid came back he came back more distraught and was muttering something about needing a map of DC. He put the map onto the board, “This is Diane Turner's apartment. This is the nearest cell tower her phone call to me pinged off of, which means this is the circle that Maeve was telling me about.” 

“What circle?” Hotch asked. 

“It was a clue in Diane's message. Finding her would be as easy as pie. Only she wasn't referring to the food, she was referring to…” Reid wrote out the first 5 digits of pi.

“Pi,” Garcia breathed out. 

“Why would Diane give you a clue?” Hotch was still confused.

“Maeve made a similar pun once,” Reid sighed. “Now Diane wants me to see her the same way, but brilliant, the smartest girl in the room.”

“All right, assuming that Diane has a secondary location, where in the circle would she hold Maeve?” Hotch asked.

“She'd need a building that would allow for privacy and control, a closed garage for prisoner transfer…” Reid explained.

“If she's copying Maeve's life, it might be someplace close to Maeve's apartment,” Hotch guessed.

“There's nothing in Diane's name,” Garcia sighed. 

“Well, what about Maeve's name, or even Bobby's, maybe she forged his signature?” You added. 

Garcia typed on her computer,“Nope”  

“What about Diane's parents?” Reid was getting angrier and angrier.

“Yes. Yes. Diane rented a loft right next to Maeve's in her parents' name,” Reid grabbed his coat at Garcia’s name. 

“Reid. I can't let you be a part of this takedown,” Hotch stopped him.

We don't have a choice. If I don't go in there, Maeve is dead,” Reid pleaded.

“And if you do, you're dead,” Hotch explained.

“Hotch, we've known from the beginning she's on a murder-suicide mission, but we never stopped to ask why she's on that mission. We know now that it's because she wants recognition, the type of recognition she thinks Maeve gets, and I can give her that.”

“How?” Hotch sighed

“I'm gonna tell her that I love her,” Reid and Hotch walked away after that.

That was your breaking point. Reid told you that he didn’t love Maeve, but now it seems like he does. You stormed up the stairs and into Rossi’s office. You laid on the couch  and started to cry. He was hurting you and he didn’t even know it. Within minutes Rossi walked in and shut the door, “Shouldn’t you be with the team?” you wiped tears from your face and sat up.

“They have a whole SWAT team, they don’t need me,” He came and sat next to you. “What’s wrong.”

“The night JJ got married,” you said through sobs, “He told me he loved me. Every day after that, he told me he loved me.”

“He still does love you,” He let you put your head on his shoulder. “Do you know what transference is?”

“When someone is being helped, sometimes they fall in love with their rescuer,” you said as your tears ran dry.

“She helped him with his headaches, so he may have felt compelled to love her,” He explained.

“Do you have your com with you?” you asked.

“I do,” He pulled a walkie talkie out of his pocket and took the ear piece out so you both could listen. 

You couldn’t hear much of anything, until there was a gunshot, “Let’s go,” Hotch shouted.

“Stay back! Stay back! Stay back! Stay back, stay back!” Reid shouted. “Diane, Diane, there's still a way out of this.”

“You never wanted me. Never! You lied!” Diane shrieked 

“I didn't. Diane, I offered you a deal and you can still take it. Me for her. Let me take her place,” Reid pleaded. 

“You would do that?” Diane asked through tears. 

“Yes,” Reid said calmly. 

“You would kill yourself for her?”

“Yes,” Reid repeated.

“Thomas Merton,” Maeve said calmly. 

“Who's Thomas Merton?” Diane cried.

“He knows. He knows.” the woman said more desperately this time.

“Who's Thomas Merton? Who is he?” Diane cried. 

“He's the one thing you can never take from us,” Maeve said confidently.

“No,” Diane was calm this time, too calm. There was another gunshot.

“Wait!” Reid screamed. 

You got up as quickly as possible, “We have to get over there Rossi,” you screamed as you ran out of the room. Rossi wasn’t far behind you. He drove the two of you to the loft Garcia and discovered. When you rushed in, everyone was staring at the two women in a pool of blood. Reid was crying on the ground. You ran over to him and hugged him. He needed you more than ever at this point. “Spence,” you whispered.

“I’m so sorry,” he sobbed into your shoulder.

“Don’t apologize.”

You two sat there for a while. Eventually, Hotch said that you two needed to leave so you helped Reid stand up and leave the building. You drove him home and helped him get into bed. Rossi called you and asked how he was. You had to tell him that he hadn’t talked for 12 hours. Later that day, Morgan called you. “Hey,” you whispered as you answered the phone.

“He still loves you,” Morgan assured you.

“Did you talk to Rossi?” you scoffed. 

You heard him chuckle, “I did. As Reid’s best friend and confidant, I am sure enough to tell you that he still loves you.”

“Thank you,” you hung up. You looked at the shell of a man lying in your boyfriend’s bed. You sighed and went to lay with him.

[nromans]

Unit 03 _ Creative Problem Solving Interviews

Interview three (3) individuals. Ask them to respond to these two questions:

How do you generate ideas? (How, when, and where are you inspired? What inspires you? What obstacles do you face in coming up with a new idea and how do you overcome those obstacles?)

What process(es) do you use to solve problems? (Describe the steps of your problem-solving process. Explain your journey from inspiration to implementation.)

A 28-year-old Consultant

01. How do you generate ideas? (How, when, and where are you inspired? What inspires you? What obstacles do you face in coming up with a new idea and how do you overcome those obstacles?)

In a work setting, a lot of the ideas that we work through don't need to be brand new. We can often get to a better outcome by using ideas that have worked well for other companies in the past, even if they are companies in different industries and maybe in a different country. No need to reinvent the wheel! We're a global firm and try to codify the situation, complications, and results of projects we do to make it easy for other people in the firm to reference. So my first step in idea generation is typically to look at our internal library to see if I can find similar situations to what my client is in and see what has been done before. There are usually follow up questions I have when I'm reading through the other case examples, so I may reach out to someone from that team (usually I haven't met them) and ask to chat on the phone. I will also look up who the internal experts are in the firm - these are often senior people who have seen similar types of problems and have good pattern recognition, or have a really good understanding of the nuances of a particular industry. Scheduling a call with an expert and the rest of my team can be a really helpful step in beginning to get our creative juices flowing. From there once we feel we have collected a lot of the firm's internal knowledge on a topic, we may have team whiteboarding session or two to discuss our ideas. Most of our best ideas come about through collaboration. Once we have a draft, we'll show what we have to different stakeholders - first external, then our clients, and go through multiple rounds of iteration until we have something well tailored to the client needs. Often an obstacle we face is resistance by our clients of trying something new that they haven't done before. So whenever we have an idea, we spend about half the time getting the idea right, and half the time talking about the right way to socialize the idea to maximize the chance that it will be received well.

02. What process(es) do you use to solve problems? (Describe the steps of your problem-solving process. Explain your journey from inspiration to implementation.)

First, we lay out the key questions that we are going to focus on. Often times there are many problems going on at one time, so we try to hone in to what the key few are that we're trying to solve. If it isn't in the key questions, we aren't going to focus on it. From there, we begin with a hypothesis. It's totally ok if the hypothesis ends up wrong, and it often does, but we typically form one pretty early on in the problem solving process. From there, we come up with sub-assertions that would need to be true in order for the hypothesis to be true. This makes proving (or disproving) the hypothesis feel like a more manageable task when you break it up into its component parts. It also makes it easier to divide the work up among team members. Different teamlets can be responsible for different sub-assertions that roll up into the main hypothesis. We then decide how we are going to prove each sub-assertion. Before we go off and do the work, we make sure everyone is in alignment about the approach. We are looking for confirmation that if the sub-assertions were true, everyone would feel good that the main hypothesis was true, and also that the activities we have proposed to prove the sub-assertions would give people confidence that the sub-assertions were true. This is an important step so you don't spend time doing work that isn't directly tied to the key questions and hypothesis. Once we have agreement on the approach, everyone goes off to work on their part of the answer. We remain in daily communications across the teamlets because often we learn things that will be useful for another teamlet to know. As we learn more, we frequently pull up as a team and discuss what we've learned about each of the sub-assertions and the main hypothesis, and we adjust based on what we now know to be true. This process continues until we have completed all the agreed upon activities and have refined the hypothesis and sub-assertions to reflect everything we've learned.

A 62-year-old Tech Board Member, Former CMO

01. How do you generate ideas? (How, when, and where are you inspired? What inspires you? What obstacles do you face in coming up with a new idea and how do you overcome those obstacles?)

a. Think of the problem from as many perspectives as possible

b. Involve more minds than just your own

c. Try to think as unconstrained as possible. Are you letting some assumptions narrow your view of possible solutions?

02. What process(es) do you use to solve problems? (Describe the steps of your problem-solving process. Explain your journey from inspiration to implementation.)

a. Frame the problem. Do this as insightfully as possible, with the insights backed by data. This may take time, but is important because if you skip this step you may end up addressing the wrong root cause of the problem.

b. Frame the solution. Once you know what the root cause is that you need to fix, map out a plan for doing so…complete with an approach and a timeline

c. Frame the risks and requirements. What do you need to execute the solution and what are the risks?

A 26 year old Corporate Event Planner

01. How do you generate ideas? (How, when, and where are you inspired? What inspires you? What obstacles do you face in coming up with a new idea and how do you overcome those obstacles?)

As an event manager, I am constantly generating ideas from my day to day life. I get a lot of my decor inspiration from fashion and interior design trends. There is a lot of crossover between these categories when designing an event (colors, fabrics, patterns, shape, style etc.) When it comes to activations at events I get a lot of my inspiration from activities that I do outside of work along with current pop culture. It also wouldn’t be 2021 if I didn’t get inspiration from social media. It is part of our job to take lots of photos of our events so it helps looking at other event managers/planners and the events that they put on. A lot of the times it will help spark a different idea that maybe you weren’t thinking about.

I would say one big obstacle is budget. When working with a client and their budget it can be difficult because you want to deliver the best possible options for each and every client but sometimes that just isn’t possible and you have to get creative to stay within their budget. As much as this is a challenge, I absolutely love being creative and over delivering on little things when I can.

02. What process(es) do you use to solve problems? (Describe the steps of your problem-solving process. Explain your journey from inspiration to implementation.)

One of my most essential steps in problem solving is collaborating with my colleagues. Since we are event managers at a venue rather than an event management company, a lot of the issues that we run into our logistical to the venue. It is great to bounce ideas off of colleagues that maybe have gone through the same thing or just have an idea that will help.

[riathenowheregirl]

Gold Dust Women: My Favorite Witchy Singers

Okay, before you burn me alive with “Where’s this certain artist?!” or “Why is this certain artist not here?!” or “Who even uses Tumblr these days?”, uhmmm me bish?? It’s my safe zone. Okay, the last question was a joke. 

Can I just say that the amazing women on this list are artists I listen to all the time. They’re my favorites, so chill (I’m open for suggestions tho). This is not Rolling Stone or Billboard magazine, it’s just ya girl’s good ol’ tumblr blog. Also, I’m not saying that all of them are literal w i t c h e s, it’s just that they portray the same aesthetic through their art and music. 

Alright, now that’s settled, let’s start.

1. STEVIE NICKS 

Do I even need to explain this? Stevie is undoubtedly the Etheral Queen of them all, the Pioneer, the O.G. Supreme whose lyrical soul and spellbinding voice echoes from the distant past to the inevitable future. Everything about her oozes with witchcraft and magic starting from her iconic top hat, to her millions of intricately made shawls, down to her platform boots. Only Stevie Nicks could pull off such Not-of-this-Era outfits and she has been doing it CONSISTENTLY. She’s in a timeline of her OWN. If you listen to her music, you would notice that every song of hers is poetry, like she’s telling a story or conjuring the unknown. She’s every witchy woman’s icon and that’s a fact.

Stevie is an untouchable yet gracious legend, we’ll always be a part of her sisterhood until the day of earth’s decay. Forever the Queen of Rock N’ Roll. 

Current Favorite Stevie Lyrics:  “ You can fly swinging from your trapeze, scaring all the people...but you'll never scare me.”  |   “Once in a million years a lady like her rises. Oh no, Rhiannon, you cry, but she's gone and your life knows no answer.”

Notice how I used the word “current”? Because it always changes depending on the state my life. Here’s a more detailed post on why I love her.   

2. KATE BUSH 

“Heathcliff, it's me, I'm Cathy, I've come home, I'm so cold! Let me in through your window!”

The eccentric beauty, Kate Bush made a genius, artistic move by writing a song about the book, Wuthering Heights, written by Emily Brontë in the 1800′s. Mind you, she was only 18 when she wrote and was the first song written by a female artist that landed on top the charts. Her voice is almost as distinctive as Stevie Nicks. While Stevie’s more nasal, commanding, wailing rock n’ roll goddess, Kate’s voice was high-pitched, alarming, ghostly, queer, and fairy-like. Everything about her is Performance Art. This is a woman who is not afraid to express herself.

For starters, you might think her music is strange and weird. Trust me, I felt the same way when I first heard her songs. But then, it began to grow on me leaving floral patterns on its path. 

Favorite Kate Bush Lyrics:  “Do you want to feel how it feels? Do you want to know that it doesn't hurt me? Do you want to hear about the deal that I'm making? You, it's you and me.”

3. FLORENCE WELCH 

This one is as obvious as Stevie Nicks. Florence Welch from the band, Florence + the Machine, is a poetess, a screaming banshee, and a full-pledged Sister of the Moon. She even started a witch coven during middle school. From her red carpet looks to her everyday outfits on Instagram, Florence vibrates powerful witch energy. Not to mention she has a song called “Which Witch” and that haunting music video for Big God with levitating women. Flo is not a woman to trifle with, I’ll tell you that. 

Photos courtesy of @lillieeiger

In all her songs, Florence will bind you with magic and it’ll leave you breathless. If Stevie’s songs are poetry, hers are spells you could sing out loud. Also, if you haven’t seen her house tour, go check it now! 

Favorite Florence Welch Lyrics: “'Cause I am done with my graceless heart so tonight I'm gonna cut it out and then restart.”  |  “And in a moment of joy and fury I threw myself in the balcony like my grandmother so many years before me.”

4. LANA DEL REY

Remember when Lana used witchcraft to hex Donald Trump? It was all over the news and Twitter went wild. She was later quoted saying, “I really do believe that words are one of the last forms of magic and I’m a bit of a mystic at heart.” Oh, and she also did a collab with Stevie. 

We. Stan. Forever.

There was even a time that I MEMORIZED the monologue in the music video for Ride. ALL OF IT, HUNNY. 

Lana’s hypnotizing vocals together with her sixties baby doll dresses and Priscilla Presley hair is enough to convince me that she’s not of this era. She has a deep understanding of the beauty of past generation and the looming sadness and nostalgia that comes with it. Whenever I listen to her music, I imagine myself as a rockstar’s muse who is involved with the mafia but then I decided to leave him while taking his gun and convertible. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Favorite Lana Del Rey Lyrics: “Well, my boyfriend's in the band. He plays guitar while I sing Lou Reed. I've got feathers in my hair, I get down to Beat poetry. And my jazz collection's rare, I can play most anything.”

5. LORDE 

David Bowie didn’t call her the “future of music” for nothing. Just two albums under her belt, Lorde already proved that she will one day become a legend herself. Her music narrates an unparalleled interpretation of the anguish and fleeting charm of our youth. She knows what we’re feeling because she’s been there herself and is on the road to healing just like us. 

I think the message she’s trying to say is that we’re constantly losing grip on our innocence, and that life is often wicked so we need to accept that, grit our teeth, get on with it, and make art. She can also see color when she hears music. 

In my opinion, Lorde is one of the greatest artists of my generation. 

Favorite Lorde Lyrics: “The truth is I am a toy that people enjoy till all of the tricks don't work anymore, and then they are bored of me.”  |   “That slow burn wait while it gets dark, bruising the sun, I feel grown up with you in your car. I know it's dumb.” 

6. FKA TWIGS

Honestly, FKA Twigs is literally art in living form, a celestial angel that nobody can easily decipher. This woman has more talent in her fingertips than I could ever have in a lifetime. She somehow reminds me of a young Kate Bush; fearless, experimental, with an intoxicating voice. She never stops reinventing herself and it’s beautiful.

In FKA Twigs’ world, there are no limits, just endless galaxies. She pours her whole being in all of her songs and it shows. She’s not for the faint of heart, let me tell you that. 

Favorite FKA Twigs Lyrics:  “And I don't want to have to share our love. I try but I get overwhelmed. All wrapped in cellophane, the feelings that we had.” 

7. SKOTT 

I say this all the time, but I cannot write without Skott’s music blasting on my earphones. She grew up in a “forest commune run by outcast folk musicians” and was not exposed to contemporary music until her teen years. You would notice it in her songs. 

It’s hard to explain why, but listen to Skott’s music when there’s thunder and rain outside, then you’ll know why this woman is witchy. I kind of want her to be more popular and known, but then again, I also want to keep her to myself. Scratch that, LISTEN TO SKOTT’S MUSIC NOW. 

Start with Glitter & Gloss. 

Favorite Skott Lyrics: “Like an empty canvas, hear me cry. Like a masterpiece, I'm in your eyes. Now your colors are in front of me, we're a picture-perfect oddity.”

8. FIRST AID KIT 

I fell in love with this sister duo when I first heard their song, Emmylou, while browsing YouTube. It’s one of those moments of instant magic. Klara and Johanna Söderberg are a coven of their own. I would describe their music as “Woodland Folk laced with runes and wild flowers”. 

Their voices compliment each other so much that it reminded me of Simon & Garfunkel (they even performed their own version of America in front of Paul Simon!!!). First Aid Kit has this Woodstock seventies vibe, and you know me, I live for that sh*t. 

Favorite First Aid Kit Lyrics: “ When I run through the deep dark forest long, after this begun, where the sun would set, the trees were dead and the rivers were none. And I hope for a trace to lead me back home from this place, but there was no sound there was only me, and my disgrace.”

9. ZOLA JESUS

Zola Jesus’ music deserves to be played with an orchestra inside an abandoned castle in Transylvania while it gently rains and you’re wearing a white nightgown as you roam its empty halls. Is that too much?

 Not at all. 

Like Skott, I listen to Zola whenever I’m having writer’s block. If I ever finish my book, I’m gonna have to thank them. 

Favorite Zola Jesus Lyrics: “I'm on my bed, my bed of stones, but in the end of the night we'll rest our bones, so don't you worry. Just rest your head cause in the end of the night we'll be together again.”

10. ZELLA DAY 

Photo Credits to Harper Smith

I LOVE ZELLA DAY’S MUSIC OH MY GOODNESS. My favorite songs of her are Sweet Ophelia, Hypnotic, Man on the Moon, and Hunnie Pie. ESPECIALLY HUNNIE PIE. I cry whenever I hear that song. It’s just so pure, calming, and beautiful. 

Her music belong in the psychedelic era. 

People labeled her as the “happier version of Lana Del Rey” but I think she’s in a league of her own. She deserves more recognition, honestly! 

Favorite Zella Day Lyrics: “The older we get there's an ocean of people in places we've chosen and you know how mama keeps saying “we've gotta stop the games we're playing””. 

Hope you guys approve of my list! I really like sharing stuff that I love! Feel free to message me for more suggestions, I’d really appreciate to know more witchy artists out there. We’re all in a huge coven of sisterhood. 

Thanks for reading!

Love, 

Ria  🌙

P.S.

Please follow my blog!!! THANK YOU  🔮

[wykart]

Does it Matter? (It’s Klaus)

Part 2 of Fifty-one years (and one day) later (read on ao3) 

I've made this a sequel rather than the next chapter of the fic because I was really happy with the way that 'Fifty-one years (and one day) later' ended, and wanted it to be read as a self-contained (relatively short) story. However, I couldn't stop thinking about what would happen next in this version of events! 

So, if you want more of this timeline, and are ready for some MAJOR angst, then continue at your own risk :) I hope you enjoy!

Summary: The truth comes out, and Klaus must come to grips with the fact that his entire life of happiness with Dave was taken away by his own brother.

2 days, 16 hours

He took the briefcase back up to his room after he was done lecturing them all. He finally had them all gathered in one place, and he had a lead on who was going to cause the apocalypse. He’d had to… circumvent a couple of things to get them all here, all ready for what was coming, but it was all trivial in relation to the extinction of the human race. Well, that’s what he told himself anyway. He dusted off the case and tucked it under his bed. The shrapnel still embedded in his side sent a pulse of white hot pain through him as he bent over. He couldn’t ignore it any longer, and he would be no use to the others if his wound got worse and he was put out of commission for hours, even days… that wouldn’t do. He resolved, however reluctantly, to talk to Mom about patching it up. She may have been a robot, but her first aid training was impeccable.

...

2 days, 14 hours

Five had sent the other three off on errands of their own – Diego and Allison to dig up data on Harold Jenkins from the local police station, and Luther to search through Dad’s research for something about that impending apocalypse good’ol’Reggie would always work into the odd lecture or grandiose speech. Klaus, on the other hand, was useless. He couldn’t be trusted with anything important, and for good reason. Five had said that all of them needed to be together to stop this thing, but Klaus felt like he could’ve slunk away into the shadows without any of them noticing. He’d turned up after being missing for a day, a few shades darker, hair shorter, new tattoos and muscles and everything, and Five had been the only one who’d noticed.

That’s where he was going now, to see Five. He wanted to know if there was anything he could do to help – not that he particularly cared about helping – just to clear his conscience so he could laze around guilt-free. There was that, and the fact that Five seemed hurt. He’d been clutching his side earlier, limping like he was injured. He wasn’t the sort to admit when something was wrong with him, to show signs of weakness.

It was strange to see Five’s old room occupied again, they’d kept the door shut for so many years, never wanting to renovate or reuse the space, never wanting to admit that he was really gone. There was some crazy math shit on the walls that made Klaus’ head spin, and that creepy mannequin was smiling at him from the bed. He didn’t want to think about what his little (way older) brother and that mannequin got up to at night.

The bed was covered in dirt, and Klaus followed the trail down to the floorboards, leading under the bed. There was a pretty battered looking black briefcase under there, but Klaus knew better than to open it this time. So Five had one after all, then why had he been so angry at Klaus for destroying the last one? And why had he bothered using a fake briefcase just yesterday when he met up with those psychos from the motel? He turned the object over in his hands, there was damp, dark mud covering the bottom corners – and it was fresh. There were sticky strips all over it, where duct tape had been pulled off, taking some of the black coat with it. It was scratched up, worn out, not like the pristine, perfect box Klaus had used. In fact, he could have sworn that pattern of scratches where the very same that Klaus had dug in with his nails during his nervous nights in the jungle, clutching it, reminding himself of where he’d been, and of what he’d decided to give up but never brought himself to let go. One of the latches was missing from the top of the case, as if it had snapped off at the axis. Suddenly, a rush of recognition shot through him and he rummaged in the pockets of his military vest, puling out a black hunk of plastic he’d found back in Vietnam. It had been lying in the jungle on the path back to the tent… just sitting there at the edge of the clearing where Klaus had lost everything. It fit perfectly in the space that the case’s missing latch had left behind – clearly, this was where it had come from. Had Five stolen this case from another of those time travelling bastards?

“Hey Ben, take a look at this,” He beckoned his brother over, who’d been leaning in the corner of the room, bored. “I found a piece of this case back in 1968, so whoever Five took this from was there that night.” He was perplexed - what would Five’s old time travelling buddies want with - “Dave.” He said, eyes staring off, far away, to another time. He heard the racket of gunfire ricocheting around his skull, the whistle of bombs dropping, the thundering of helicopter blades, screams and cries of triumph. His voice, strained against the uncaring din, screaming for help...

“Klaus?” Ben asked, leaning over him, his face knotted with concern. Klaus pulled his hands from over his ears, wiping away the beginnings of tears that had been forming in his eyes.

“I’m okay,” he lied. “It’s just, Luther said that Five’s old employers were all about ‘correcting the timeline’ or whatever. I stole their briefcase time machine thingy, and I’ll bet they knew about it too.”

“So you think, what-“

“They came to kill me, or at least get the case back.”

Ben thought for a moment. He hadn’t been there with Klaus during those months, being negative-twenty-one years old and all. He’d only spent a night wondering where Klaus had gone when he’d disappeared on the bus, wondering if he would ever rematerialise. He’d been so happy when he found Klaus again, knowing that he wouldn’t be banished from this plane of existence for good, wouldn’t have to face the fact that he no longer existed in any real sense. He’d been happy, until he saw the blood on his hands and the hurt in his eyes - the tan and the tattoos and the fresh wave of grief he was drowning in. Of course, he’d never met Dave, but he could tell how much he meant to Klaus - a shred of hope and normalcy found in the least normal of situations - and even that had been taken away. “So you think they killed Dave?”

“I think they came to kill me, and Dave just got in the way.” They way Klaus was looking at him, begging him to prove him wrong, it was heart breaking.

“I... don’t think that makes a lot of sense,” he considered, pacing around the room. He used to spend so much time here as a kid, with Five and sometimes Vanya, taking a moment of peace away from their more rambunctious siblings. “They’re supposed to be professionals, I doubt they’d miss. What if they were trying to get the case back here, to the present where it belonged.”

“So then, they killed Dave?” Klaus was trying to puzzle it out. The fact that such an organisation existed at all was a troubling notion. It might have even caused him some form of existential distress if he wasn’t already so deep in a pit of self-loathing and nihilistic indifference that he didn’t care anymore.

“Well, wasn’t he the reason you stayed? You told me you only stuck around because of him, what if they knew that?” Ben tried to pretend that he wasn’t hurt by this notion - he was dead, after all, and didn’t make for great company. Would Klaus really have abandoned him? More importantly, would he really have abandoned everyone else?

…

“Klaus?” Five was standing in the doorway to his bedroom, watching Klaus fiddling with the briefcase he’d stowed under there. He was muttering to himself, like he so often did. A shot of panic ran through Five’s thoughts, but he promptly reminded himself that there was no way that Klaus could retain any memories from his un-lived life, there was no way he could know. “What are you doing?”

Klaus jumped and looked around to see Five standing there, the shrapnel now removed from his gut and bandaged up. “Oh, hey there Five, I thought you’d be busy, you know, stopping the apocalypse and all.”

“I came to get my gun, In case you forgot, I have someone to kill today.”

“Right, of course,” he hummed to himself for a moment, clearly not getting the hint that Five wanted him to leave, “won’t that look a little suspicious though, I mean, you’re a little schoolboy walking down the street with a hunting rifle,” he giggled, “might turn some heads.”

Five knew that Klaus was just trying to get on his nerves, it was one of his very few talents, but Five didn’t rise to the bait. He only sighed and walked over the threshold, Klaus’ eyes trained on him all the while.

“Where did you get this?”

“What?” He sighed, not looking forward to another trivial discussion.

“The briefcase.” Five’s stomach turned. “What about it? I got it from my employers, same place Hazel and Cha-Cha got their’s.”

“Looks a bit battered up though, wouldn’t you say, not like Chazel and Ha-ha’s at all.” He looked up and began muttering to himself, as if an invisible person was standing by his side - maybe there was. “See, I’m not traumatised, I don’t even remember their names,” he laughed, hollow and forced. Five rolled his eyes.

“Get to the point, Klaus, I’m kinda busy here.”

“I just want to know who’s briefcase this is. See this,” He held up the broken off piece of the latch, waving it in the air, “I found this in the middle of a battlefield in the Vietnam war.” Five shrugged his shoulders, doing is best to feign disinterest.

“Huh,” Klaus murmured, studying Five’s expression, “you’re not surprised?”

“What are you talking about?” He was on edge, had he slipped up, was it possible that Klaus knew something?

“Well, I never told you I served in Vietnam, all I said was that I went back in time.” Shit. “You’re smart Five,” he continued, a smirk on his face at catching Five out, “but you’re not a mind reader - as far as I know anyway. And if you are I think you’re obligated to tell me because my thoughts are pretty fucked up and I’ll have to remember to tone them down for your young, naive ears.” Again, that laughter, the sound that masked the truth - that his mind was falling apart.

Five tried his best to mask his shock and think up a quick reply, but it was too late, his expression had already betrayed him. “Look Klaus, you’re a mess, I know it, you know it, we all know it,” Klaus nodded eagerly, smiling fondly to himself. Was this man capable of taking anything seriously? “You told me about Vietnam,” he lied, “you probably just forgot about it.”

“Did I?” He asked quietly, to no one in particular. “Yeah, I didn’t think so.” He rounded on Five again, dragging himself to his feet. “Tell me the truth Five, it’s okay, I’m not Luther. I’m not going to lecture you about how,” he pouted, puffing our his chest and putting on a comically deep voice, “murder is wrong, number Five.” He paused, obviously expecting Five to laugh. “Okay,” he shrugged, murmuring under his breath again, “tough crowd. At least I know you appreciate me.” A moment of silence, then Klaus hissed at the empty air.

Five was starting to panic. If Klaus really did suspect him, why on earth was he being so cool about it? He knew that Klaus used humour as a coping mechanism, it was his defining characteristic, but this was a step on the side of lunacy. “What are you getting at?” He said, coldly.

“I’m just saying, if you killed this bastard, I want to know!” He exclaimed. Five realised he wasn’t talking about Dave. He thought that Five had killed the previous owner of the briefcase, the agent that he suspected had killed Dave instead. It hurt, a twist like a knife to the gut, that Klaus hadn’t even entertained the idea that Five had been the one to pull the trigger. “Come on Five,” he cooed, “did you kill the bastard who owned this case?”

“I did... in a way.” Because the man that Klaus had become was dead, fifty years of his life gone in a moment. Fifty years of happiness... But it had to be done. Allison and Diego would be back any second now with the information he needed, if he could just stomach this conversation for a moment longer, he could leave facing the consequences to another day. For now, it was essential that they all stick together, no matter if all that held them in place was lies.

“Well, congratulations man,” Klaus’ earnest smile made Five feel sick. He trusted him, completely. Klaus looked down at the floor, the light in his eyes suddenly drained out. “But that means,” he murmured, “that means it really was my fault.”

“What?” Five asked.

“Well, if those guys go around correcting the timeline, then they were there for me - God I was so selfish,” he put his head in his hands, burying his face, trying to hide away. “I thought I could just stay there and forget about all of this and I loved him and then... he died for it. He died because of me. This is all my fault.” His shoulders shook with silent sobs. It tore Five apart. “Why do I have to ruin everything?” He muttered, breaking down. “Why couldn’t I just leave him alone, he was better off, everything would be better off if I just-“

“Klaus.” Five said, trying to get through to him.

Klaus seemed to remember that Five was standing there, watching all of this unfold. “Fuck, Five I’m sorry,” he sniffed, trying compose himself, “thanks for what you did, even though you didn’t do it for me or anything, I mean, why would anyone do that?” He laughed again, that same hollow, pleading cry for help.

“Don’t say that,” he muttered, but Klaus didn’t seem to hear. “Please, please don’t say that,” because Five could feel his will unravelling.

“I’m sorry I’ve been so useless with this whole apocalypse thing,” Klaus said, “I’ll get my shit together, okay? I’ll actually be useful for once, just give me something to do.” And there it was, Five had him right where he wanted him - but he couldn’t take it. He’d been a fool to think that forty-five years away from this place had desensitised him to all the weakness that came with love and empathy. Despite everything he’d tried to bury, when loving had been too painful, Five still cared. It was as if two facets of himself were locked in a game of tug of war, the part that had suffered through the future and knew what had to be done, and the part that couldn’t stand seeing his brother broken like this; the way he blamed himself and felt indebted to him despite the damage Five had done to him. Was the world worth this? No matter the cost, he decided that it was.

Klaus was still standing there, smiling tearfully, and despite everything that Five stood for, that to love was reckless, that it brought only danger and pain, that the truth was worshipped like a false idol, relative, irrelevant, his to twist to more important ends... he couldn’t stand it any longer.

“It was me,” He muttered, barely more than a whisper. Klaus looked at him expectantly, waiting for an explanation. There was no turning back now. “I killed Dave.”

[sometimesrosy]

Can you give a timeline of when you think bellarke’s feelings for each other began? btw I love ur meta posts :)

thanks! :)

I worked on this all day. It took a long time. I should remember it the next time someone asks me for this and just point them back to this. 

Season 1

first meeting: WOAH who’s that? Hot. (mutual)

early drop ship: antagonist but strangely drawn to each other. they need each other or need to find a way around the other. (the wrist band. take it off. you’ll have to kill me. she makes him smile. and she needs him to follow her.)

Earth Skills: falling in the pit: he DIDN’T drop her. They are both surprised by this. A recognition that he is NOT the bad guy he seems. On both sides. I think it throws bellamy more than it does clarke.

Earth Kills: She kills Atom. She realizes he is softer than he seems. He realizes she is tougher than she seems. New respect. They begin to work together.

Murphy’s Law: He builds a wall with fear. She doubts but sees it’s working. She goes off half cocked to blame Murphy, when he told her not to and it causes disaster. She begins to respect him as a leader who understands things. 

Twilight’s Last Gleaming: They are working separately for the same ends (to save Charlotte) Until she GIVES him power. Instead of fighting against each other to run the delinquents, they do it together. IT WORKS. Team Bellarke begins. 

“Can you wish upon this kind of shooting star?”: first intimacy. She expects him not to understand. He does. Beginning of tentative friendship.

Work together to… well… torture Lincoln *sigh*: He tries to protect her from it, she refuses. She doesn’t need to be protected. She’s taking responsibility for their action. He tries to lessen the burden the way she did with Atom.

Day Trip: She seeks him out to partner with. Says it’s because she doesn’t like him. But she can be honest with him and depend on him to back her up. Hmm. Clarke tells Finn she trusts Bellamy and is surprised by this. (this might be out of order.) They work together well and this is its own intimacy. Find guns. He is thrown by the intimacy and realizes he is physically attracted to her. They flirt. He runs off. They save each other from Dax. He is vulnerable and tells her he is a monster. She tells him he can’t leave and she needs him, which makes him look at her in hope, “We ALL need you,” which makes him look away in disappointment (the moment Rosy stared shipping it. I said ‘wait what? he cares if she needs him? let me watch that 10 billion times.’) Power couple enters camp to save the day. Clarke intercedes with Jaha to save and praise Bellamy. He can’t believe it. Clarke truly likes Bellamy. Bellamy’s crush on Clarke begins. 

Unity Days: honest to god flirting. Clarke is putting out genuine signals to Bellamy like any girl who is into a guy. At this point I think it is mostly physical for her. She wants to have fun and he’s hot and she likes him. He sends her away (this is a pattern with him. when there is a potential for romance with her he backs off.) She turns to Bellamy to back her up with Finn’s plan. She has drawn her alliance in the sand here. She trusts and depends upon Bellamy, not Finn.  Bellamy does not disappoint her. 

I can’t separate it here. They work together a lot. Trust each other. Argue over how to do things. Confide in each other. Support each other. They are becoming real friends here. I think when he sleeps with Raven there is a measure of jealousy that Clarke went with Finn, but he’s not going to admit that. He is not acknowledging his feelings for her at this point. Brushes them off as nothing but a crush.

When Clarke closes the dropship door on Bellamy, she is terrified and desperate that she might lose him, to the extent that her canon love interest who is trying to get her back sees her distress and goes after his prime competition to SAVE him for HER. Which is worse, because now she has to close the door on both the boy she loves and the man she has come to depend on the most. Yes I called Finn a boy and Bellamy a man. Do you disagree?

super long. seasons 2, 3 and 4 after the jump

Season 2

 Clarke awakens and fixates on Bellamy and Finn. Always a pair in her concern. Her love interest and her….??? If they had been in the mountain, I doubt she would have struggled to get out. Pairing of Finn and Bellamy in her mind is a subconscious thing. Bellamy is becoming someone LIKE a love interest, without being one.

Bellamy takes Finn’s lead on rescuing Clarke. He doesn’t HAVE to admit his feelings for her, because Finn will obsessively go after her for him. He lets him and takes the back seat. He choses Mel and his people over Clarke and sends Finn after Clarke.  Because he does. Not. have feelings for her. 

Reunion hug: startling everyone. Clarke runs into his arms. Pure joy and relief for them both. They do not know how they feel about each other. It does not matter. They are just feeling it. It’s a lot. 

Campfire: Bellamy stares first and Octavia and then at Clarke, realizing for the first time there’s someone OTHER than O who he wants to see again. Then they absolve each other of their sins. It had to be done. Mutual support. On an emotional level. After this there is lots of teamwork. 

“I can’t lose you too”: Bellamy is shocked that she linked him and Finn. I don’t know if Clarke noticed that she did it. But she did. She needs him. Followed closely by “Love is a weakness”–”I was being weak.” Seems to him that Clarke doesn’t care anymore. But it’s really a subconscious (I think) realization that she loves Bellamy and losing him would be too painful, so she pushes him away and refuses to feel. Bellamy then shuts off all feelings for her and focuses on his quest to save his people. (princess/knight trope)

“It just makes sense.”: princess/knight trope from Bellamy’s perspective. Devoted love, but “platonic.” From here on until Camp Jaha, Bellamy’s feelings for Clarke are barely even a thing in season 2. He puts it aside.

Bellamy finally radios: Before she hears his voice, she is despairing, feels hopeless, and is afraid she sentenced him to death. Once she hears his voice she has a new plan. Keep Bellamy alive by distracting MW with an army.

TonDC bombing: Clarke goes to Lxa to save TonDC, but Lxa uses her concern for Bellamy to get her to agree to sacrifice the coalition leaders and town. She had other reasons, but it was Bellamy’s protection that decided her. 

The entire time she’s working with L she is talking about Bellamy, about protecting him, about how he’s trustworthy, how he’ll do it, about how much faith she has in him.

“You care about him,” L asks her. She denies it. It’s a weakness to care. When L cared, her enemies killed  her. Clarke is aware of this. L described Costia as special. She cannot show to L that Bellamy is special. (she fails at this.)

When L kisses her, Clarke says she is not ready for anything with anybody. Please note there is no one else trying to kiss her. I maintain that she is already thinking of Bellamy as that possible “anybody” that she’s not ready for. Further linking Bellamy in that rejection/potential LI is the EXACT next scene. Next line even. “Bellamy did it.” Bellamy’s signal flare goes up. He got rid of the veil. The army can march.

Clarke and Bellamy meet under the mountain: This is a remarkable reunion in that it seems to be a reversal of the previous reunion where Clarke ran to Bellamy and jumped into his arms. This time they don’t touch. She does, however, hug Monty and Jasper and Bellamy hugs Octavia. Something has changed. I think it goes back to what she told L. She now sees Bellamy as a romantic interest, but she is NOT READY FOR THAT. So she holds back and keeps it all business, just as he is since being told it was worth the risk. 

The Lever: This was HUGE for Clarke. She had to do it but she struggled with the immensity of it. He does it with her, harkening back to season 1 and their partnership where they shared the burden. She values him SO much because of this.

Camp Jaha departure: She says good bye to Bellamy. He’s heartbroken. He wanted her to stay but he understood why she left. She kisses him here, and almost looks like she would stay but tears herself away from him. Her goodbye to him is different than the one to Monty. It is saying goodbye to a romanic potential that she’s not ready for. It is not platonic. He’s still platonic though. She leaves. And while we don’t see it, believe that she spends the entire 3 months alone thinking about him and what he did for her and how much she cared for him. I believe she is in love with him here and knows it but is entirely unready for it. He has no clue.

Season 3

Wanheda 1 and 2. Bellamy still has no clue that he is in love with Clarke but he is also a bit obsessed with her. “a bit.” 

He disguises himself and runs across enemy lines to find her. He forgets his surroundings when he sees her. She calls him (I think) “Bell” and seems amazed that he would come to her. She is already in love with him. She gives up fighting so Roan will spare him. (Roan clocks this whole interaction. Roan begins to ship it. Confirmed. Ask Zach.)

Dumbass Bellamy is bleeding out trying to follow them.  “–Can’t lose Clarke!!! We can’t lose Clarke!” despair. Shocking everyone who sees him so distraught. Dumbass still doesn’t know he’s in love with her. 

Bellamy leaves MW to go save Clarke at the summit. Finds out MW and Gina are gone. Clarke looks like the enemy. Stays with the enemy. Does not come home with him. BETRAYAL. Dumbass still does not realize that these feelings he has for her are love. Plus, doubly heartbroken, Gina and Clarke both gone to the grounders. CLARKE at the summit is horrified to see him. Refuses to show her feelings to him in front of Azgeda, Lxa and the coalition, all of whom are barely allies and closer to enemies. Love is a weakness. They kill people you love to control you. She can also barely even show emotion to her mother here. She’s deep in a mental breakdown here. 

Hakeldama: Clarke still believes Bellamy is her hero. He wouldn’t. He’ll fix it. He’ll work with her. He isn’t. He won’t. We finally get Bellamy to call Clarke to task for what she did to HIM specifically. They finally express emotions they have been restraining for months. And only with each other. Bellamy sees her crying and kneels in front of her taking her hand and BOOM, finally catches up to the dumbass. HE’S IN LOVE WITH HER! OH! Crap. That’s terrifying. Slaps the handcuffs on her, breaking her heart, because she thinks he hates her. When really he’s just terrified. She shocklashes him and runs.

Clarke turns to Lxa because she’s heartbroken and Lxa loves her. Bellamy turns to Pike because screw you softer emotions and screw you grounders! Screw all of you. Clearly Clarke and Bellamy are done.

Nevermore: No, you’re wrong. Clarke and Bellamy are not done. Team’s back together. Mutual handwrapping is an intimacy that says they still care. Clarke begins her campaign to win back Bellamy’s friendship and care. Which she never lost but he’s so angry.  Demons, the team is back. Partnership reclaimed.

The  Beach: She won’t leave him even though he tells her to buzz off. He forgives her. They hug and find their home in each other again. The hug allows him to cry. It allows her to smile. Then they drink poison with an actual vow, “together.” In some circles that’s a commitment ceremony.

The scene when Clarke is looking at the Polis tower, and then looks at Bellamy passing in front of the rover and he is haloed by the lights is, I think, a visual bit of storytelling which says Clarke has let go of L and is moving onto the future, which is with Bellamy. There were other signs of her processing her grief, but I think this wasn’t just for us, but was her thinking about the past and then letting go. 

When she tells him that she trusts him, I think it goes a long way to him feeling like she values him. Which maybe he didn’t think before.

He returns that when he tells her that he believes her about the flame and not only doesn’t he argue with her but he feeds her the chip. 

Oh also the hand holding when the flame goes in. She reaches out for him and he is there only for emotional support because she’s afraid. 

Season 4

The beginning of season 4 starts with them very much together and intimate and partnered, with everything from her thanking him for keeping her alive to his threats to echo when she has Clarke to leaving Polis together. However, the reminder of her love for L reinforces his belief that although he loves Clarke, she does not love him. She does though. She loved them both.

Their partnership is super tight in the early s4. They are very together. Bellamy is sure he loves her, but he still thinks it’s the princess/knight thing. It’s not. She returns it and moves closer and closer to him, up until the list scene where she nuzzles his hand and he…. can’t take it. Or doesn’t think she loves him and is just physical or gets scared or I don’t know what, but he runs away. She feels sad and rejected by him again, and although she thought he loved her too, she now thinks he doesn’t feel that way for her. Boo. Both move away from love. 

But I think he was jealous and pissed off when she went to Niylah. Because he treats her WAY different after that. Oh I think she was jealous when she saw him talking to Luna, though, too. hm.

At this point we are now in full on mutual pining. He loves her and thinks she doesn’t love him back (witness Niylah and Lxa.) She loves him and thinks he doesn’t feel like that about her (witness he keeps turning her down.) 

Clarke did not intend to almost confess her feelings for him on the beach. But she was feeling so much, longing so much they just slipped out.

He ALMOST got it, but not quite. Started to confess his feelings for her, and I don’t think he was intending to tell her he loved her, that’s too hard for him, but he was going to say something and it might have been about how special SHE was. but no.

On science island, we have Clarke full on pining for a love like Memori, with that soft empty bed. I think she’s thinking about Bellamy.

In Arkadia, Jasper convinces Bellamy to want something for himself, and he goes with Bree, Clarke’s lookalike. Whether they did it or not, he turned to a substitute for Clarke. Because it was as close as he could get because he couldn’t have her.

When she kidnaps, imprisons and points a gun at him, he is full on furious at her. I don’t think he even thinks of his emotions. Just fury. Betrayal. 

She thinks it’s over. Why bother? He hates her. 

Then he realizes in the rover that when she didn’t pull the gun on him, it wasn’t a sign that she didn’t value him, but a sign that she valued him over EVERYONE. I think he finally connects that Clarke actually loves him back, and all of a sudden his anger evaporates and he’s smiling at her. It’s totally dumb and comes out of nowhere. It’s because he realizes she LOVES HIM TOO. She doesn’t realize yet that it’s mutual. 

But they are all of a sudden a team again. 

When he hugs her because she missed her phone call, Clarke already thinks she’s dying. She sinks into him and grabs onto him, holding onto him because she’s decided she doesn’t want to let him go. 

When they’re flirting with oxymorons and cold sweat, I think we get HER moment where she realizes he returns her feelings. For one second there’s a light of joy in her face and then she remembers that she’s dying and she doesn’t want him to hurt when she does and she doesn’t get to keep him and she’s sad.

He doesn’t want her to tell him goodbye because he knows what it means and he can’t bear it and he also doesn’t want her confession because it means the same thing but he stops and listens because he loves her.

They go to fix the dish. They get separated. When she tells him to “hurry,” that is essentially her saying she doesn’t want to give up trying and she’s going to try to live and it is the opposite of “may we meet again” because it essentially means may we not part at all. 

And here’s Bellamy where his heart breaks.

And here’s Clarke where she’s been holding onto his memory for 6 years to keep from losing her mind. Because it’s a love letter she’s sending him every day for 2199 days.

And here’s where my heart breaks. 

Screw you JR. 

30 more days.

[sussex-nature-lover]

Wednesday 20th January 2021

History from Long Ago and a Bit of Nature Thrown In

See Update edit at the end of this blog*

Another dark day here, absolutely bogging as we might say. Wet and uninviting. There’s no way I want to venture into the great outdoors despite the younger Nature Watch flagging up this helpful article.

So instead, I’ve stayed snug indoors and embarked upon a history lesson. Settle down as you could lose an afternoon on this one. I do apologise for rambling on so much, but it was one of those that once you started, you I just couldn’t stop.

For obvious reasons photos today are not my own but are credited to the sites linked

On an historic day in American history, when a woman takes a presidential role for the first time, I’ve been focusing on women.

The question is do you know anything about Edith Pretty?

Edith Pretty (1883-1942) photo credit: National Trust

This is she.

Now I very much doubt that Edith Pretty is a name that springs to many people’s mind? but if it wasn’t for her, it seems Britain would have been denied one of its greatest national treasure collections.

I started off looking at Edith and her story at Sutton Hoo because I was looking into another little known but hugely influential woman who made an impact on natural history, with barely any recognition at the time and then I got side-tracked by news of The Dig, a new Netflix film, out at the end of this month - the 29th to be precise. Now I’m not a big film fan, but this tells the intriguing true story of how a wealthy and idiosyncratic widow with a ferocious sense of civic duty, lead an archaeological excavation just before the outbreak of World War II (1939-1945)

Just what I want on these horrid Winter evenings, history and mystery.

Edith had a very privileged background and travelled extensively with family in her youth, not just pleasure trips but educational journeys far and wide. The family were interested in ancient sites and antiquities and this stayed with Edith.

When she married at the age of 42 she purchased a marital home and estate named Sutton Hoo*in South East Suffolk. Frank and Edith went on to have a son born when Edith was 47, but sadly Frank only lived until the boy was four years old, after which it’s possible that Edith became more and more interested in spirituality and lives that had gone before.

Sutton Hoo derives its name from Old English. Sut combined with tun means the southern "farmstead" or "settlement" and Hoh refers to a hill "shaped like a heel spur"  Wikipedia

* when the Tranmer family Trustees later donated the house to the National Trust, it was renamed Tranmer House

There’s a far longer and more involved tale than I can unravel here. It started with curiosity, hunches and investigations into some strange mounds of earth in the grounds, with the help of Basil Brown.  Brown, who Edith was introduced to via acquaintances, was a self-taught archaeologist with an interest in astronomy.

The mounds of earth had undoubtedly been the subject of investigation by grave robbers centuries before, but fortuitously, they’d not gone far enough to make any significant finds and the land continued to lay undisturbed. It’s incredible to think that before the qualified experts became involved, the first excavations took place using household items such as penknives, pastry brushes and bellows. The whole wonderful significance of such an impressive discovery and the way it came about, is fairly earth shattering. 

Basil and Edith’s project uncovered the shape and remains of a ship which was at first thought to be Viking, but later determined to almost certainly be a burial chamber marking the death of an Anglo-Saxon king. Interred with it were many priceless, perfectly preserved gold and silver jewelled and highly decorated artefacts from the early 7th century and before. These treasures had been gathered from far and wide; the products of breathtakingly deft workmanship, which, even today, with precision tools and artificial lighting, cannot be matched easily. Some of the items seem, to me, reminiscent of Fabergé’s finest.

A gold shoulder clasp decorated with garnet and glass cloissoné

Image credit National Geographic

Cloisonné is the technique of creating designs on metal vessels with coloured glass paste. This is placed within enclosures made of copper or bronze wires, bent or hammered into the desired pattern. Known as cloisons (French for “partitions”), the enclosures generally are either pasted or soldered onto the metal body. The glass paste, or enamel, is coloured with metallic oxide and painted into the contained areas of the design. The vessel is usually fired at a relatively low temperature, about 800°C. Enamels commonly shrink after firing, and the process is repeated several times to fill in the designs. Once this process is complete, the surface of the vessel is rubbed until the edges of the cloisons are visible. They are then gilded, often on the edges, in the interior, and on the base

The collection of 263 objects included weapons, silver cutlery, gold buckles, coins, and a distinctive full-face helmet, of a kind never before recovered in Britain. 

The purse lid on this Link is photographed from various angles and the standard of the materials, design and workmanship is just mind boggling, as is the condition of something which was crafted in the 7th Century.

Bronze Washing Pot decorated with glass and enamel. The hooks are to hang it up. Image credits National Geographic

Two other women who played a key role in documenting the investigation were Mercie Lack and Barbara Wagstaff. People I hadn’t heard of either. They were both schoolteachers who had a passion for photography and for Anglo-Saxon archaeology. As friends they had previously spent school holidays photographing carved stone for the British Museum and they brought their skills to bear on recording the early days of the Sutton Hoo excavation. They likely responded to a public appeal for photographers to help out and turned the Summer break into a holiday stay as well. Their images, many of them neatly annotated, provide a fascinating insight into the project, and include some of the earliest colour photographs from an archaeological investigation in this country. Of all the volunteers their work was the most professional.

Image credit: National Trust, Twitter

The National Trust has undertaken a project to digitalise this collection and preserve it for posterity.

Unfortunately, as is often the way, in the dramatisation the film follows the book upon which it is based, where the author chose to replace them with a fictional (male) character. Like Edith, Mercie also bequeathed her artefacts from the dig to the British Museum. You’d really liked to have thought that the women’s contributions were recognised and noted and not airbrushed out of the story.

Incredibly, after a treasure trove inquest (August 1939 at Sutton Parish Hall) it was determined that the astounding find - which would entirely revolutionise historians’ understanding of the Anglo-Saxons - belonged not to the Crown but to the landowner and extraordinarily Edith donated the entire haul to the nation.

 In 1951, having been stored in Aldwych Tube station during the war, it went on display in the British Museum - albeit with no credit, not a single namecheck, for Basil Brown.  Sadly, Edith was no longer around to object. Basil was almost 90 when he died in 1977, but after suffering a blood clot on the brain, she had died in 1942, aged just 59.

Winston Churchill had offered Edith a CBE in recognition of her extraordinary generosity, but she declined the honour, almost certainly on the basis, according to Laura Howarth, archaeology manager for the National Trust, that she had ‘merely been doing her duty’  

Laura Howarth says ‘There have been notable Anglo-Saxon finds since, but nothing like this, a fully furnished, undisturbed ship burial. We know of only three Anglo-Saxon ship burials, two at Sutton Hoo and one near by at Snape. So it was a very localised practice’ 

Wikipedia Link Sutton Hoo

TIMELINE:

1926 Edith Pretty buys the site of Sutton Hoo, and becomes fascinated by the strange mounds of earth on her land.

1939 Basil Brown discovers a funerary cache of 263 objects in tumulus 1. World War II breaks out in September.

1946 After being kept safe underground during the war, the treasure—owned by the British Museum—is put on public display.

1990s Further excavations uncover another intact burial site in tumulus 17 containing a young man, a horse, and weapons.

The British Museum link to Edith and to the treasures

Photo: Harold John Phillips in the public domain. The ‘skeleton’ of the almost 90′ Ghost Ship imprint in the soil. This size ship would have accommodated 40 oarsmen

There’s also a piece about recreating the ‘Ghost Ship’ on this Daily Mail link and it has a good piece of National Trust video showing the site.

Rebuilding the Ship and why use Green Oak?

The Ship’s Company Team is a group of people with the collective desire to resurrect King Raedwald’s burial ship and turn the famous ghost imprint into a living reality.

Although there is no evidence left to examine the identity of the illustrious occupant of the burial ship, a strong guess is that it was possibly King Raedwald? It certainly must’ve been someone fabulously wealthy and highly regarded. The Sutton Hoo sword video from the British Museum at the end of this blog is very well worth a watch, exploring more about the man.

Within the ship, archaeologists found various treasures from across both the British Isles as well as the Byzantine (eastern Roman) and Frankish (western European) empires — including the famed Sutton Hoo helmet.

The grave itself is thought to belong to King Rædwald of East Anglia, a member of the Wuffingas dynasty which has been associated with the Wulfing clan of Sweden, who appeared in the Old English epic poem Beowulf.

If you’d like to read more and see some absolutely fabulous original photographs do go over to this Anonymous Blog. Edith was the cousin of the author’s Great Grandmother and it is a really personal and detailed account of what the family know of this incredible lady. I highly recommend it.

So there we are, you can see how I became utterly absorbed and went from internet site to site following all the history. I’m really interested in catching the film and seeing how the whole story of the people and the discovery is portrayed. Remember the date 29th January, if you have access to Netflix.

*UPDATE:

Please do read this blog about Basil Brown, written by John Cooper

WHAT ELSE DID I LEARN TODAY:

The Seventh Century covers the years 601-700 and I picked out this fact

Only one woman has ever sat on China's throne as Emperor in her own right. That woman was Wu Zetian (624-705) of the Tang dynasty

[epackingvietnam]

The Best-Laid Plans: Can We Predict Anything About 2021?

Posted by Dr-Pete

I've deleted this introduction twice. To say that no one could've predicted how 2020 unfolded seems trite since we're not even a month into 2021, and this new year has already unraveled. Our challenges in the past year, across the globe, have gone far beyond marketing, and I doubt any of us ended the year the way we expected. This graph from Google Trends tells the story better than I can:

The pandemic fundamentally rewrote the global economy in a way none of us has ever experienced, and yet we have to find a path forward. How do we even begin to chart a course in 2021?

What do we know?

Let's start small. Within our search marketing realm, is there anything we can predict with relative certainty in 2021? Below are some of the major announcements Google has made and trends that are likely to continue. While the timelines on some of these are unclear (and all are subject to change), these shifts in our small world are very likely.

Mobile-only indexing (March)

Mobile-first indexing has been in progress for a while, and most sites rolled over in 2020 or earlier. Google had originally announced that the index would fully default to mobile-first by September 2020, but pushed that timeline back in July (ostensibly due to the pandemic) to March 2021.

If you haven't made the switch to a mobile-friendly site at this point, there's not much time left to waste. Keep in mind that "mobile-first" isn't just about speed and user experience, but making sure that your mobile site is as crawlable as your desktop. If Google can't reach critical pages via your mobile design and internal links, then those pages are likely to drop out of the index. A page that isn't indexed is a page that doesn't rank.

Core Web Vitals (May)

While this date may change, Google has announced that Core Web Vitals will become a ranking factor in 2021. Here's a bit more detail from the official announcement ...

Page experience signals in ranking will roll out in May 2021. The new page experience signals combine Core Web Vitals with our existing search signals including mobile-friendliness, safe-browsing, HTTPS-security, and intrusive interstitial guidelines.

Many of these page experience signals already impact ranking to some degree, according to Google, so the important part really boils down to Core Web Vitals. You can get more of the details in this Whiteboard Friday from Cyrus, but the short version is that this is currently a set of three metrics (with unfortunately techie names): (1) Largest Contentful Paint (LCP) LCP measures how quickly the largest, visible block of your page loads. It is one view into perceived load-time and tries to filter out background libraries and other off-page objects.

(2) First Input Delay (FID) FID measures how much time it takes before a user can interact with your page. "Interact" here means the most fundamental aspects of interaction, like clicking an on-page link.

(3) Cumulative Layout Shift (CLS) CLS measures changes to your page layout, such as ads that appear or move after the initial page-load. I suspect the update will apply mostly to abusive or disruptive layout shifts. While these metrics are a narrow slice of the user experience, the good news is that Google has defined all of them in a fair amount of detail and allows you to track this data with tools like Google Lighthouse. So, we're in a unique position of being be able to prepare for the May algorithm update.

That said, I think you should improve site speed and user experience because it's a net-positive overall, not because of a pending 2021 update. If past history — including the HTTPS update and mobile-friendly update — is any indicator, Google's hope is to use the pre-announcement to push people to make changes now. I strongly suspect that Core Web Vitals will be a very minor ranking factor in the initial update, ramping up over a period of many months.

Passage indexing/ranking (TBD)

In October 2020, Google announced that they were "... now able to not just index web pages, but individual passages from the pages." They later clarified that this wasn't so much passage indexing as passage ranking, and the timeline wasn't initially clear. Danny Sullivan later clarified that this change did not roll out in 2020, but Google's language suggests that passage ranking is likely to roll out as soon as it's tested and ready.

While there's nothing specific you can do to harness passage ranking, according to Google, I think this change is not only an indicator of ML/AI progress but a recognition that you can have valuable, long-form content that addresses multiple topics. The rise of answers in SERPs (especially Featured Snippets and People Also Ask boxes) had a side-effect of causing people to think in terms of more focused, question-and-answer style content. While that's not entirely bad, I suspect it's generally driven people away from broader content to shorter, narrower content.

Even in 2020, there are many examples of rich, long-form content that ranks for multiple Featured/Snippets, but I expect passage ranking will re-balance this equation even more and give us increased freedom to create content in the best format for the topic at hand, without worrying too much about being laser-targeted on a single topic.

Core algorithm updates (TBD)

It's safe to say we can expect more core algorithm updates in 2021. There were three named "Core" updates in 2020 (January, May, and December), but the frequency and timing has been inconsistent. While there are patterns across the updates, thematically, each update seems to contain both new elements and some adjustments to old elements, and my own analysis suggests that the patterns (the same sites winning and losing, for example) aren't as prominent as we imagine. We can assume that Google's Core Updates will reflect the philosophy of their quality guidelines over time, but I don't think we can predict the timing or substance of any particular core update.

Googlebot crawling HTTP/2 (2022+)

Last fall, Google revealed that Googlebot would begin crawling HTTP/2 sites in November of 2020. It's not clear how much HTTP/2 crawling is currently happening, and Google said they would not penalize sites that don't support HTTP/2 and would even allow opt-out (for now). Unlike making a site secure (HTTPS) or mobile-friendly, HTTP/2 is not widely available to everyone and may depend on your infrastructure or hosting provider.

While I think we should pay attention to this development, don't make the switch to HTTP/2 in 2021 just for Google's sake. If it makes sense for the speed and performance of your site, great, but I suspect Google will be testing HTTP/2 and turning up the volume on it's impact slowly over the next few months. At some point, we might see a HTTPS-style announcement of a coming ranking impact, but if that happens, I wouldn't expect it until 2022 or later.

When will this end?

While COVID-19 may not seem like a marketing topic, the global economic impact is painfully clear at this point Any plans we make for 2021 have to consider the COVID-19 timeline, or they're a fantasy. When can we expect the pandemic to end and businesses to reopen on a national and global scale? Let me start by saying that I'm not a medical doctor — I'm a research psychologist by training. I don't have a crystal ball, but I know how to read primary sources and piece them together. What follows is my best read of the current facts and the 2021 timeline. I will try to avoid my own personal biases, but note that my read on the situation is heavily US-biased. I will generally avoid worst-case scenarios, like a major mutation of the virus, and stick to a median scenario.

Where are we at right now?

As I'm writing this sentence, over 4,000 people died just yesterday of COVID-19 in the US and over 14,000 globally. As a data scientist, I can tell you that every data point requires context, but when we cherry-pick the context, we deceive ourselves. What data science doesn't tell us is that everyone one of these data points is a human life, and that matters.

There is a light at the end of the tunnel, in the form of viable vaccines, including (here in the US and in the UK) the Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna, and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines. These vaccines have been approved in some countries, have demonstrated promising results, and are in production. Here in the US, we're currently behind the timeline on distribution, with the CDC reporting about 10 million people vaccinated as of mid-January (initial goal was 20 million vaccinated by the end of 2020). In terms of the timeline, it's important to note that, for maximum effectiveness, the major vaccines require two doses, separated by about 3-4 weeks (this may vary with the vaccine and change as research continues).

Is it getting better or worse?

I don't want to get mired in the data, but the winter holidays and travel are already showing a negative impact here in the US, and New Year's Eve may complicate problems. While overall death rates have improved due to better treatment options and knowledge of the disease, many states and countries are at or near peak case rates and peak daily deaths. This situation is very likely to get worse before it gets better.

When might we reopen?

I'm assuming, for better or worse, that reopening does not imply full "herd immunity" or a zero case-rate. We're talking about a critical mass of vaccinations and a significant flattening of the curve. It's hard to find a source outside of political debates here in the US, but a recent symposium sponsored by Harvard and the New England Journal of Medicine suggests that — if we can adequately ramp up vaccine distribution in the second quarter of 2021 — we could see measurable positive impact by the end of our summer (or early-to-mid third quarter) here in the US.

Any prediction right now requires a lot of assumptions and there may be massive regional differences in this timeline, but the key point is that the availability of the vaccine, while certainly cause for optimism, is not a magic wand. Manufacturing, distribution, and the need for a second dose all mean that we're realistically still looking at a few months for medical advances to have widespread impact.

What can we do now?

First, let me say that there is absolutely no one-size-fits-all answer to this question. Many local businesses were decimated, while e-commerce grew 32% year-over-year in 2020. If you're a local restaurant that managed to stay afloat, you may see a rapid return of customers in the summer or fall. If you're a major online retailer, you could actually see a reduction in sales as brick-and-mortar stores become viable again (although probably not to 2019 levels).

If your e-commerce business was lucky enough to see gains in 2020, Miracle Inameti-Archibong has some great advice for you. To inadequately summarize — don't take any of this for granted. This is a time to learn from your new customers, re-invest in your marketing, and show goodwill toward the people who are shopping online more because of the difficulties they're facing.

If you're stuck waiting to reopen, consider the lead time SEO campaigns require to have an impact. In a recent Whiteboard Friday, I made the case that SEO isn't an on/off switch. Consider the oversimplified diagram below. Paid search is a bit like the dotted gray line — you flip the switch on, and the leads starting flowing. The trade-off is that when you flip the switch off, the leads dry up almost immediately.

Organic SEO has a ramp-up. It's more like the blue curve above. The benefit of organic is that the leads keep coming when you stop investing, but it also means that the leads will take time to rebuild when you start to reinvest. This timeline depends on a lot of variables, but an organic campaign can often take 2-3 months or more to get off the ground. If you want to hit the ground running as reopening kicks in, you're going to need to start re-investing ahead of that timeline. I acknowledge that that might not be easy, and it doesn't have to be all or none.

In a recent interview, Mary Ellen Coe (head of Google Marketing Solutions) cited a 20,000% increase during the pandemic in searches from consumers looking to support local businesses. There's a tremendous appetite for reopening and a surge of goodwill for local businesses. If you're a local business, even if you're temporarily closed, it's important to let people know that you're still around and to keep them up-to-date on your reopening plans as they evolve.

I don't expect that the new normal will look much like the old normal, and I'm mindful that many businesses didn't survive to see 2021. We can't predict the future, but we can't afford to wait for months and do nothing, either, so I hope this at least gives you some idea of what to expect in the coming year and how we might prepare for it.

Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don't have time to hunt down but want to read!

#túi_giấy_epacking_việt_nam #túi_giấy_epacking #in_túi_giấy_giá_rẻ #in_túi_giấy #epackingvietnam #tuigiayepacking

[bfxenon]

The Best-Laid Plans: Can We Predict Anything About 2021?

Posted by Dr-Pete

I've deleted this introduction twice. To say that no one could've predicted how 2020 unfolded seems trite since we're not even a month into 2021, and this new year has already unraveled. Our challenges in the past year, across the globe, have gone far beyond marketing, and I doubt any of us ended the year the way we expected. This graph from Google Trends tells the story better than I can:

The pandemic fundamentally rewrote the global economy in a way none of us has ever experienced, and yet we have to find a path forward. How do we even begin to chart a course in 2021?

What do we know?

Let's start small. Within our search marketing realm, is there anything we can predict with relative certainty in 2021? Below are some of the major announcements Google has made and trends that are likely to continue. While the timelines on some of these are unclear (and all are subject to change), these shifts in our small world are very likely.

Mobile-only indexing (March)

Mobile-first indexing has been in progress for a while, and most sites rolled over in 2020 or earlier. Google had originally announced that the index would fully default to mobile-first by September 2020, but pushed that timeline back in July (ostensibly due to the pandemic) to March 2021.

If you haven't made the switch to a mobile-friendly site at this point, there's not much time left to waste. Keep in mind that "mobile-first" isn't just about speed and user experience, but making sure that your mobile site is as crawlable as your desktop. If Google can't reach critical pages via your mobile design and internal links, then those pages are likely to drop out of the index. A page that isn't indexed is a page that doesn't rank.

Core Web Vitals (May)

While this date may change, Google has announced that Core Web Vitals will become a ranking factor in 2021. Here's a bit more detail from the official announcement ...

Page experience signals in ranking will roll out in May 2021. The new page experience signals combine Core Web Vitals with our existing search signals including mobile-friendliness, safe-browsing, HTTPS-security, and intrusive interstitial guidelines.

Many of these page experience signals already impact ranking to some degree, according to Google, so the important part really boils down to Core Web Vitals. You can get more of the details in this Whiteboard Friday from Cyrus, but the short version is that this is currently a set of three metrics (with unfortunately techie names): (1) Largest Contentful Paint (LCP) LCP measures how quickly the largest, visible block of your page loads. It is one view into perceived load-time and tries to filter out background libraries and other off-page objects.

(2) First Input Delay (FID) FID measures how much time it takes before a user can interact with your page. "Interact" here means the most fundamental aspects of interaction, like clicking an on-page link.

(3) Cumulative Layout Shift (CLS) CLS measures changes to your page layout, such as ads that appear or move after the initial page-load. I suspect the update will apply mostly to abusive or disruptive layout shifts. While these metrics are a narrow slice of the user experience, the good news is that Google has defined all of them in a fair amount of detail and allows you to track this data with tools like Google Lighthouse. So, we're in a unique position of being be able to prepare for the May algorithm update.

That said, I think you should improve site speed and user experience because it's a net-positive overall, not because of a pending 2021 update. If past history — including the HTTPS update and mobile-friendly update — is any indicator, Google's hope is to use the pre-announcement to push people to make changes now. I strongly suspect that Core Web Vitals will be a very minor ranking factor in the initial update, ramping up over a period of many months.

Passage indexing/ranking (TBD)

In October 2020, Google announced that they were "... now able to not just index web pages, but individual passages from the pages." They later clarified that this wasn't so much passage indexing as passage ranking, and the timeline wasn't initially clear. Danny Sullivan later clarified that this change did not roll out in 2020, but Google's language suggests that passage ranking is likely to roll out as soon as it's tested and ready.

While there's nothing specific you can do to harness passage ranking, according to Google, I think this change is not only an indicator of ML/AI progress but a recognition that you can have valuable, long-form content that addresses multiple topics. The rise of answers in SERPs (especially Featured Snippets and People Also Ask boxes) had a side-effect of causing people to think in terms of more focused, question-and-answer style content. While that's not entirely bad, I suspect it's generally driven people away from broader content to shorter, narrower content.

Even in 2020, there are many examples of rich, long-form content that ranks for multiple Featured/Snippets, but I expect passage ranking will re-balance this equation even more and give us increased freedom to create content in the best format for the topic at hand, without worrying too much about being laser-targeted on a single topic.

Core algorithm updates (TBD)

It's safe to say we can expect more core algorithm updates in 2021. There were three named "Core" updates in 2020 (January, May, and December), but the frequency and timing has been inconsistent. While there are patterns across the updates, thematically, each update seems to contain both new elements and some adjustments to old elements, and my own analysis suggests that the patterns (the same sites winning and losing, for example) aren't as prominent as we imagine. We can assume that Google's Core Updates will reflect the philosophy of their quality guidelines over time, but I don't think we can predict the timing or substance of any particular core update.

Googlebot crawling HTTP/2 (2022+)

Last fall, Google revealed that Googlebot would begin crawling HTTP/2 sites in November of 2020. It's not clear how much HTTP/2 crawling is currently happening, and Google said they would not penalize sites that don't support HTTP/2 and would even allow opt-out (for now). Unlike making a site secure (HTTPS) or mobile-friendly, HTTP/2 is not widely available to everyone and may depend on your infrastructure or hosting provider.

While I think we should pay attention to this development, don't make the switch to HTTP/2 in 2021 just for Google's sake. If it makes sense for the speed and performance of your site, great, but I suspect Google will be testing HTTP/2 and turning up the volume on it's impact slowly over the next few months. At some point, we might see a HTTPS-style announcement of a coming ranking impact, but if that happens, I wouldn't expect it until 2022 or later.

When will this end?

While COVID-19 may not seem like a marketing topic, the global economic impact is painfully clear at this point Any plans we make for 2021 have to consider the COVID-19 timeline, or they're a fantasy. When can we expect the pandemic to end and businesses to reopen on a national and global scale? Let me start by saying that I'm not a medical doctor — I'm a research psychologist by training. I don't have a crystal ball, but I know how to read primary sources and piece them together. What follows is my best read of the current facts and the 2021 timeline. I will try to avoid my own personal biases, but note that my read on the situation is heavily US-biased. I will generally avoid worst-case scenarios, like a major mutation of the virus, and stick to a median scenario.

Where are we at right now?

As I'm writing this sentence, over 4,000 people died just yesterday of COVID-19 in the US and over 14,000 globally. As a data scientist, I can tell you that every data point requires context, but when we cherry-pick the context, we deceive ourselves. What data science doesn't tell us is that everyone one of these data points is a human life, and that matters.

There is a light at the end of the tunnel, in the form of viable vaccines, including (here in the US and in the UK) the Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna, and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines. These vaccines have been approved in some countries, have demonstrated promising results, and are in production. Here in the US, we're currently behind the timeline on distribution, with the CDC reporting about 10 million people vaccinated as of mid-January (initial goal was 20 million vaccinated by the end of 2020). In terms of the timeline, it's important to note that, for maximum effectiveness, the major vaccines require two doses, separated by about 3-4 weeks (this may vary with the vaccine and change as research continues).

Is it getting better or worse?

I don't want to get mired in the data, but the winter holidays and travel are already showing a negative impact here in the US, and New Year's Eve may complicate problems. While overall death rates have improved due to better treatment options and knowledge of the disease, many states and countries are at or near peak case rates and peak daily deaths. This situation is very likely to get worse before it gets better.

When might we reopen?

I'm assuming, for better or worse, that reopening does not imply full "herd immunity" or a zero case-rate. We're talking about a critical mass of vaccinations and a significant flattening of the curve. It's hard to find a source outside of political debates here in the US, but a recent symposium sponsored by Harvard and the New England Journal of Medicine suggests that — if we can adequately ramp up vaccine distribution in the second quarter of 2021 — we could see measurable positive impact by the end of our summer (or early-to-mid third quarter) here in the US.

Any prediction right now requires a lot of assumptions and there may be massive regional differences in this timeline, but the key point is that the availability of the vaccine, while certainly cause for optimism, is not a magic wand. Manufacturing, distribution, and the need for a second dose all mean that we're realistically still looking at a few months for medical advances to have widespread impact.

What can we do now?

First, let me say that there is absolutely no one-size-fits-all answer to this question. Many local businesses were decimated, while e-commerce grew 32% year-over-year in 2020. If you're a local restaurant that managed to stay afloat, you may see a rapid return of customers in the summer or fall. If you're a major online retailer, you could actually see a reduction in sales as brick-and-mortar stores become viable again (although probably not to 2019 levels).

If your e-commerce business was lucky enough to see gains in 2020, Miracle Inameti-Archibong has some great advice for you. To inadequately summarize — don't take any of this for granted. This is a time to learn from your new customers, re-invest in your marketing, and show goodwill toward the people who are shopping online more because of the difficulties they're facing.

If you're stuck waiting to reopen, consider the lead time SEO campaigns require to have an impact. In a recent Whiteboard Friday, I made the case that SEO isn't an on/off switch. Consider the oversimplified diagram below. Paid search is a bit like the dotted gray line — you flip the switch on, and the leads starting flowing. The trade-off is that when you flip the switch off, the leads dry up almost immediately.

Organic SEO has a ramp-up. It's more like the blue curve above. The benefit of organic is that the leads keep coming when you stop investing, but it also means that the leads will take time to rebuild when you start to reinvest. This timeline depends on a lot of variables, but an organic campaign can often take 2-3 months or more to get off the ground. If you want to hit the ground running as reopening kicks in, you're going to need to start re-investing ahead of that timeline. I acknowledge that that might not be easy, and it doesn't have to be all or none.

In a recent interview, Mary Ellen Coe (head of Google Marketing Solutions) cited a 20,000% increase during the pandemic in searches from consumers looking to support local businesses. There's a tremendous appetite for reopening and a surge of goodwill for local businesses. If you're a local business, even if you're temporarily closed, it's important to let people know that you're still around and to keep them up-to-date on your reopening plans as they evolve.

I don't expect that the new normal will look much like the old normal, and I'm mindful that many businesses didn't survive to see 2021. We can't predict the future, but we can't afford to wait for months and do nothing, either, so I hope this at least gives you some idea of what to expect in the coming year and how we might prepare for it.

Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don't have time to hunt down but want to read!

[nutrifami]

The Best-Laid Plans: Can We Predict Anything About 2021?

Posted by Dr-Pete

I've deleted this introduction twice. To say that no one could've predicted how 2020 unfolded seems trite since we're not even a month into 2021, and this new year has already unraveled. Our challenges in the past year, across the globe, have gone far beyond marketing, and I doubt any of us ended the year the way we expected. This graph from Google Trends tells the story better than I can:

The pandemic fundamentally rewrote the global economy in a way none of us has ever experienced, and yet we have to find a path forward. How do we even begin to chart a course in 2021?

What do we know?

Let's start small. Within our search marketing realm, is there anything we can predict with relative certainty in 2021? Below are some of the major announcements Google has made and trends that are likely to continue. While the timelines on some of these are unclear (and all are subject to change), these shifts in our small world are very likely.

Mobile-only indexing (March)

Mobile-first indexing has been in progress for a while, and most sites rolled over in 2020 or earlier. Google had originally announced that the index would fully default to mobile-first by September 2020, but pushed that timeline back in July (ostensibly due to the pandemic) to March 2021.

If you haven't made the switch to a mobile-friendly site at this point, there's not much time left to waste. Keep in mind that "mobile-first" isn't just about speed and user experience, but making sure that your mobile site is as crawlable as your desktop. If Google can't reach critical pages via your mobile design and internal links, then those pages are likely to drop out of the index. A page that isn't indexed is a page that doesn't rank.

Core Web Vitals (May)

While this date may change, Google has announced that Core Web Vitals will become a ranking factor in 2021. Here's a bit more detail from the official announcement ...

Page experience signals in ranking will roll out in May 2021. The new page experience signals combine Core Web Vitals with our existing search signals including mobile-friendliness, safe-browsing, HTTPS-security, and intrusive interstitial guidelines.

Many of these page experience signals already impact ranking to some degree, according to Google, so the important part really boils down to Core Web Vitals. You can get more of the details in this Whiteboard Friday from Cyrus, but the short version is that this is currently a set of three metrics (with unfortunately techie names): (1) Largest Contentful Paint (LCP) LCP measures how quickly the largest, visible block of your page loads. It is one view into perceived load-time and tries to filter out background libraries and other off-page objects.

(2) First Input Delay (FID) FID measures how much time it takes before a user can interact with your page. "Interact" here means the most fundamental aspects of interaction, like clicking an on-page link.

(3) Cumulative Layout Shift (CLS) CLS measures changes to your page layout, such as ads that appear or move after the initial page-load. I suspect the update will apply mostly to abusive or disruptive layout shifts. While these metrics are a narrow slice of the user experience, the good news is that Google has defined all of them in a fair amount of detail and allows you to track this data with tools like Google Lighthouse. So, we're in a unique position of being be able to prepare for the May algorithm update.

That said, I think you should improve site speed and user experience because it's a net-positive overall, not because of a pending 2021 update. If past history — including the HTTPS update and mobile-friendly update — is any indicator, Google's hope is to use the pre-announcement to push people to make changes now. I strongly suspect that Core Web Vitals will be a very minor ranking factor in the initial update, ramping up over a period of many months.

Passage indexing/ranking (TBD)

In October 2020, Google announced that they were "... now able to not just index web pages, but individual passages from the pages." They later clarified that this wasn't so much passage indexing as passage ranking, and the timeline wasn't initially clear. Danny Sullivan later clarified that this change did not roll out in 2020, but Google's language suggests that passage ranking is likely to roll out as soon as it's tested and ready.

While there's nothing specific you can do to harness passage ranking, according to Google, I think this change is not only an indicator of ML/AI progress but a recognition that you can have valuable, long-form content that addresses multiple topics. The rise of answers in SERPs (especially Featured Snippets and People Also Ask boxes) had a side-effect of causing people to think in terms of more focused, question-and-answer style content. While that's not entirely bad, I suspect it's generally driven people away from broader content to shorter, narrower content.

Even in 2020, there are many examples of rich, long-form content that ranks for multiple Featured/Snippets, but I expect passage ranking will re-balance this equation even more and give us increased freedom to create content in the best format for the topic at hand, without worrying too much about being laser-targeted on a single topic.

Core algorithm updates (TBD)

It's safe to say we can expect more core algorithm updates in 2021. There were three named "Core" updates in 2020 (January, May, and December), but the frequency and timing has been inconsistent. While there are patterns across the updates, thematically, each update seems to contain both new elements and some adjustments to old elements, and my own analysis suggests that the patterns (the same sites winning and losing, for example) aren't as prominent as we imagine. We can assume that Google's Core Updates will reflect the philosophy of their quality guidelines over time, but I don't think we can predict the timing or substance of any particular core update.

Googlebot crawling HTTP/2 (2022+)

Last fall, Google revealed that Googlebot would begin crawling HTTP/2 sites in November of 2020. It's not clear how much HTTP/2 crawling is currently happening, and Google said they would not penalize sites that don't support HTTP/2 and would even allow opt-out (for now). Unlike making a site secure (HTTPS) or mobile-friendly, HTTP/2 is not widely available to everyone and may depend on your infrastructure or hosting provider.

While I think we should pay attention to this development, don't make the switch to HTTP/2 in 2021 just for Google's sake. If it makes sense for the speed and performance of your site, great, but I suspect Google will be testing HTTP/2 and turning up the volume on it's impact slowly over the next few months. At some point, we might see a HTTPS-style announcement of a coming ranking impact, but if that happens, I wouldn't expect it until 2022 or later.

When will this end?

While COVID-19 may not seem like a marketing topic, the global economic impact is painfully clear at this point Any plans we make for 2021 have to consider the COVID-19 timeline, or they're a fantasy. When can we expect the pandemic to end and businesses to reopen on a national and global scale? Let me start by saying that I'm not a medical doctor — I'm a research psychologist by training. I don't have a crystal ball, but I know how to read primary sources and piece them together. What follows is my best read of the current facts and the 2021 timeline. I will try to avoid my own personal biases, but note that my read on the situation is heavily US-biased. I will generally avoid worst-case scenarios, like a major mutation of the virus, and stick to a median scenario.

Where are we at right now?

As I'm writing this sentence, over 4,000 people died just yesterday of COVID-19 in the US and over 14,000 globally. As a data scientist, I can tell you that every data point requires context, but when we cherry-pick the context, we deceive ourselves. What data science doesn't tell us is that everyone one of these data points is a human life, and that matters.

There is a light at the end of the tunnel, in the form of viable vaccines, including (here in the US and in the UK) the Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna, and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines. These vaccines have been approved in some countries, have demonstrated promising results, and are in production. Here in the US, we're currently behind the timeline on distribution, with the CDC reporting about 10 million people vaccinated as of mid-January (initial goal was 20 million vaccinated by the end of 2020). In terms of the timeline, it's important to note that, for maximum effectiveness, the major vaccines require two doses, separated by about 3-4 weeks (this may vary with the vaccine and change as research continues).

Is it getting better or worse?

I don't want to get mired in the data, but the winter holidays and travel are already showing a negative impact here in the US, and New Year's Eve may complicate problems. While overall death rates have improved due to better treatment options and knowledge of the disease, many states and countries are at or near peak case rates and peak daily deaths. This situation is very likely to get worse before it gets better.

When might we reopen?

I'm assuming, for better or worse, that reopening does not imply full "herd immunity" or a zero case-rate. We're talking about a critical mass of vaccinations and a significant flattening of the curve. It's hard to find a source outside of political debates here in the US, but a recent symposium sponsored by Harvard and the New England Journal of Medicine suggests that — if we can adequately ramp up vaccine distribution in the second quarter of 2021 — we could see measurable positive impact by the end of our summer (or early-to-mid third quarter) here in the US.

Any prediction right now requires a lot of assumptions and there may be massive regional differences in this timeline, but the key point is that the availability of the vaccine, while certainly cause for optimism, is not a magic wand. Manufacturing, distribution, and the need for a second dose all mean that we're realistically still looking at a few months for medical advances to have widespread impact.

What can we do now?

First, let me say that there is absolutely no one-size-fits-all answer to this question. Many local businesses were decimated, while e-commerce grew 32% year-over-year in 2020. If you're a local restaurant that managed to stay afloat, you may see a rapid return of customers in the summer or fall. If you're a major online retailer, you could actually see a reduction in sales as brick-and-mortar stores become viable again (although probably not to 2019 levels).

If your e-commerce business was lucky enough to see gains in 2020, Miracle Inameti-Archibong has some great advice for you. To inadequately summarize — don't take any of this for granted. This is a time to learn from your new customers, re-invest in your marketing, and show goodwill toward the people who are shopping online more because of the difficulties they're facing.

If you're stuck waiting to reopen, consider the lead time SEO campaigns require to have an impact. In a recent Whiteboard Friday, I made the case that SEO isn't an on/off switch. Consider the oversimplified diagram below. Paid search is a bit like the dotted gray line — you flip the switch on, and the leads starting flowing. The trade-off is that when you flip the switch off, the leads dry up almost immediately.

Organic SEO has a ramp-up. It's more like the blue curve above. The benefit of organic is that the leads keep coming when you stop investing, but it also means that the leads will take time to rebuild when you start to reinvest. This timeline depends on a lot of variables, but an organic campaign can often take 2-3 months or more to get off the ground. If you want to hit the ground running as reopening kicks in, you're going to need to start re-investing ahead of that timeline. I acknowledge that that might not be easy, and it doesn't have to be all or none.

In a recent interview, Mary Ellen Coe (head of Google Marketing Solutions) cited a 20,000% increase during the pandemic in searches from consumers looking to support local businesses. There's a tremendous appetite for reopening and a surge of goodwill for local businesses. If you're a local business, even if you're temporarily closed, it's important to let people know that you're still around and to keep them up-to-date on your reopening plans as they evolve.

I don't expect that the new normal will look much like the old normal, and I'm mindful that many businesses didn't survive to see 2021. We can't predict the future, but we can't afford to wait for months and do nothing, either, so I hope this at least gives you some idea of what to expect in the coming year and how we might prepare for it.

Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don't have time to hunt down but want to read!

[xaydungtruonggia]

The Best-Laid Plans: Can We Predict Anything About 2021?

Posted by Dr-Pete

I've deleted this introduction twice. To say that no one could've predicted how 2020 unfolded seems trite since we're not even a month into 2021, and this new year has already unraveled. Our challenges in the past year, across the globe, have gone far beyond marketing, and I doubt any of us ended the year the way we expected. This graph from Google Trends tells the story better than I can:

The pandemic fundamentally rewrote the global economy in a way none of us has ever experienced, and yet we have to find a path forward. How do we even begin to chart a course in 2021?

What do we know?

Let's start small. Within our search marketing realm, is there anything we can predict with relative certainty in 2021? Below are some of the major announcements Google has made and trends that are likely to continue. While the timelines on some of these are unclear (and all are subject to change), these shifts in our small world are very likely.

Mobile-only indexing (March)

Mobile-first indexing has been in progress for a while, and most sites rolled over in 2020 or earlier. Google had originally announced that the index would fully default to mobile-first by September 2020, but pushed that timeline back in July (ostensibly due to the pandemic) to March 2021.

If you haven't made the switch to a mobile-friendly site at this point, there's not much time left to waste. Keep in mind that "mobile-first" isn't just about speed and user experience, but making sure that your mobile site is as crawlable as your desktop. If Google can't reach critical pages via your mobile design and internal links, then those pages are likely to drop out of the index. A page that isn't indexed is a page that doesn't rank.

Core Web Vitals (May)

While this date may change, Google has announced that Core Web Vitals will become a ranking factor in 2021. Here's a bit more detail from the official announcement ...

Page experience signals in ranking will roll out in May 2021. The new page experience signals combine Core Web Vitals with our existing search signals including mobile-friendliness, safe-browsing, HTTPS-security, and intrusive interstitial guidelines.

Many of these page experience signals already impact ranking to some degree, according to Google, so the important part really boils down to Core Web Vitals. You can get more of the details in this Whiteboard Friday from Cyrus, but the short version is that this is currently a set of three metrics (with unfortunately techie names): (1) Largest Contentful Paint (LCP) LCP measures how quickly the largest, visible block of your page loads. It is one view into perceived load-time and tries to filter out background libraries and other off-page objects.

(2) First Input Delay (FID) FID measures how much time it takes before a user can interact with your page. "Interact" here means the most fundamental aspects of interaction, like clicking an on-page link.

(3) Cumulative Layout Shift (CLS) CLS measures changes to your page layout, such as ads that appear or move after the initial page-load. I suspect the update will apply mostly to abusive or disruptive layout shifts. While these metrics are a narrow slice of the user experience, the good news is that Google has defined all of them in a fair amount of detail and allows you to track this data with tools like Google Lighthouse. So, we're in a unique position of being be able to prepare for the May algorithm update.

That said, I think you should improve site speed and user experience because it's a net-positive overall, not because of a pending 2021 update. If past history — including the HTTPS update and mobile-friendly update — is any indicator, Google's hope is to use the pre-announcement to push people to make changes now. I strongly suspect that Core Web Vitals will be a very minor ranking factor in the initial update, ramping up over a period of many months.

Passage indexing/ranking (TBD)

In October 2020, Google announced that they were "... now able to not just index web pages, but individual passages from the pages." They later clarified that this wasn't so much passage indexing as passage ranking, and the timeline wasn't initially clear. Danny Sullivan later clarified that this change did not roll out in 2020, but Google's language suggests that passage ranking is likely to roll out as soon as it's tested and ready.

While there's nothing specific you can do to harness passage ranking, according to Google, I think this change is not only an indicator of ML/AI progress but a recognition that you can have valuable, long-form content that addresses multiple topics. The rise of answers in SERPs (especially Featured Snippets and People Also Ask boxes) had a side-effect of causing people to think in terms of more focused, question-and-answer style content. While that's not entirely bad, I suspect it's generally driven people away from broader content to shorter, narrower content.

Even in 2020, there are many examples of rich, long-form content that ranks for multiple Featured/Snippets, but I expect passage ranking will re-balance this equation even more and give us increased freedom to create content in the best format for the topic at hand, without worrying too much about being laser-targeted on a single topic.

Core algorithm updates (TBD)

It's safe to say we can expect more core algorithm updates in 2021. There were three named "Core" updates in 2020 (January, May, and December), but the frequency and timing has been inconsistent. While there are patterns across the updates, thematically, each update seems to contain both new elements and some adjustments to old elements, and my own analysis suggests that the patterns (the same sites winning and losing, for example) aren't as prominent as we imagine. We can assume that Google's Core Updates will reflect the philosophy of their quality guidelines over time, but I don't think we can predict the timing or substance of any particular core update.

Googlebot crawling HTTP/2 (2022+)

Last fall, Google revealed that Googlebot would begin crawling HTTP/2 sites in November of 2020. It's not clear how much HTTP/2 crawling is currently happening, and Google said they would not penalize sites that don't support HTTP/2 and would even allow opt-out (for now). Unlike making a site secure (HTTPS) or mobile-friendly, HTTP/2 is not widely available to everyone and may depend on your infrastructure or hosting provider.

While I think we should pay attention to this development, don't make the switch to HTTP/2 in 2021 just for Google's sake. If it makes sense for the speed and performance of your site, great, but I suspect Google will be testing HTTP/2 and turning up the volume on it's impact slowly over the next few months. At some point, we might see a HTTPS-style announcement of a coming ranking impact, but if that happens, I wouldn't expect it until 2022 or later.

When will this end?

While COVID-19 may not seem like a marketing topic, the global economic impact is painfully clear at this point Any plans we make for 2021 have to consider the COVID-19 timeline, or they're a fantasy. When can we expect the pandemic to end and businesses to reopen on a national and global scale? Let me start by saying that I'm not a medical doctor — I'm a research psychologist by training. I don't have a crystal ball, but I know how to read primary sources and piece them together. What follows is my best read of the current facts and the 2021 timeline. I will try to avoid my own personal biases, but note that my read on the situation is heavily US-biased. I will generally avoid worst-case scenarios, like a major mutation of the virus, and stick to a median scenario.

Where are we at right now?

As I'm writing this sentence, over 4,000 people died just yesterday of COVID-19 in the US and over 14,000 globally. As a data scientist, I can tell you that every data point requires context, but when we cherry-pick the context, we deceive ourselves. What data science doesn't tell us is that everyone one of these data points is a human life, and that matters.

There is a light at the end of the tunnel, in the form of viable vaccines, including (here in the US and in the UK) the Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna, and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines. These vaccines have been approved in some countries, have demonstrated promising results, and are in production. Here in the US, we're currently behind the timeline on distribution, with the CDC reporting about 10 million people vaccinated as of mid-January (initial goal was 20 million vaccinated by the end of 2020). In terms of the timeline, it's important to note that, for maximum effectiveness, the major vaccines require two doses, separated by about 3-4 weeks (this may vary with the vaccine and change as research continues).

Is it getting better or worse?

I don't want to get mired in the data, but the winter holidays and travel are already showing a negative impact here in the US, and New Year's Eve may complicate problems. While overall death rates have improved due to better treatment options and knowledge of the disease, many states and countries are at or near peak case rates and peak daily deaths. This situation is very likely to get worse before it gets better.

When might we reopen?

I'm assuming, for better or worse, that reopening does not imply full "herd immunity" or a zero case-rate. We're talking about a critical mass of vaccinations and a significant flattening of the curve. It's hard to find a source outside of political debates here in the US, but a recent symposium sponsored by Harvard and the New England Journal of Medicine suggests that — if we can adequately ramp up vaccine distribution in the second quarter of 2021 — we could see measurable positive impact by the end of our summer (or early-to-mid third quarter) here in the US.

Any prediction right now requires a lot of assumptions and there may be massive regional differences in this timeline, but the key point is that the availability of the vaccine, while certainly cause for optimism, is not a magic wand. Manufacturing, distribution, and the need for a second dose all mean that we're realistically still looking at a few months for medical advances to have widespread impact.

What can we do now?

First, let me say that there is absolutely no one-size-fits-all answer to this question. Many local businesses were decimated, while e-commerce grew 32% year-over-year in 2020. If you're a local restaurant that managed to stay afloat, you may see a rapid return of customers in the summer or fall. If you're a major online retailer, you could actually see a reduction in sales as brick-and-mortar stores become viable again (although probably not to 2019 levels).

If your e-commerce business was lucky enough to see gains in 2020, Miracle Inameti-Archibong has some great advice for you. To inadequately summarize — don't take any of this for granted. This is a time to learn from your new customers, re-invest in your marketing, and show goodwill toward the people who are shopping online more because of the difficulties they're facing.

If you're stuck waiting to reopen, consider the lead time SEO campaigns require to have an impact. In a recent Whiteboard Friday, I made the case that SEO isn't an on/off switch. Consider the oversimplified diagram below. Paid search is a bit like the dotted gray line — you flip the switch on, and the leads starting flowing. The trade-off is that when you flip the switch off, the leads dry up almost immediately.

Organic SEO has a ramp-up. It's more like the blue curve above. The benefit of organic is that the leads keep coming when you stop investing, but it also means that the leads will take time to rebuild when you start to reinvest. This timeline depends on a lot of variables, but an organic campaign can often take 2-3 months or more to get off the ground. If you want to hit the ground running as reopening kicks in, you're going to need to start re-investing ahead of that timeline. I acknowledge that that might not be easy, and it doesn't have to be all or none.

In a recent interview, Mary Ellen Coe (head of Google Marketing Solutions) cited a 20,000% increase during the pandemic in searches from consumers looking to support local businesses. There's a tremendous appetite for reopening and a surge of goodwill for local businesses. If you're a local business, even if you're temporarily closed, it's important to let people know that you're still around and to keep them up-to-date on your reopening plans as they evolve.

I don't expect that the new normal will look much like the old normal, and I'm mindful that many businesses didn't survive to see 2021. We can't predict the future, but we can't afford to wait for months and do nothing, either, so I hope this at least gives you some idea of what to expect in the coming year and how we might prepare for it.

Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don't have time to hunt down but want to read!

[ductrungnguyen87]

The Best-Laid Plans: Can We Predict Anything About 2021?

Posted by Dr-Pete

I've deleted this introduction twice. To say that no one could've predicted how 2020 unfolded seems trite since we're not even a month into 2021, and this new year has already unraveled. Our challenges in the past year, across the globe, have gone far beyond marketing, and I doubt any of us ended the year the way we expected. This graph from Google Trends tells the story better than I can:

The pandemic fundamentally rewrote the global economy in a way none of us has ever experienced, and yet we have to find a path forward. How do we even begin to chart a course in 2021?

What do we know?

Let's start small. Within our search marketing realm, is there anything we can predict with relative certainty in 2021? Below are some of the major announcements Google has made and trends that are likely to continue. While the timelines on some of these are unclear (and all are subject to change), these shifts in our small world are very likely.

Mobile-only indexing (March)

Mobile-first indexing has been in progress for a while, and most sites rolled over in 2020 or earlier. Google had originally announced that the index would fully default to mobile-first by September 2020, but pushed that timeline back in July (ostensibly due to the pandemic) to March 2021.

If you haven't made the switch to a mobile-friendly site at this point, there's not much time left to waste. Keep in mind that "mobile-first" isn't just about speed and user experience, but making sure that your mobile site is as crawlable as your desktop. If Google can't reach critical pages via your mobile design and internal links, then those pages are likely to drop out of the index. A page that isn't indexed is a page that doesn't rank.

Core Web Vitals (May)

While this date may change, Google has announced that Core Web Vitals will become a ranking factor in 2021. Here's a bit more detail from the official announcement ...

Page experience signals in ranking will roll out in May 2021. The new page experience signals combine Core Web Vitals with our existing search signals including mobile-friendliness, safe-browsing, HTTPS-security, and intrusive interstitial guidelines.

Many of these page experience signals already impact ranking to some degree, according to Google, so the important part really boils down to Core Web Vitals. You can get more of the details in this Whiteboard Friday from Cyrus, but the short version is that this is currently a set of three metrics (with unfortunately techie names): (1) Largest Contentful Paint (LCP) LCP measures how quickly the largest, visible block of your page loads. It is one view into perceived load-time and tries to filter out background libraries and other off-page objects.

(2) First Input Delay (FID) FID measures how much time it takes before a user can interact with your page. "Interact" here means the most fundamental aspects of interaction, like clicking an on-page link.

(3) Cumulative Layout Shift (CLS) CLS measures changes to your page layout, such as ads that appear or move after the initial page-load. I suspect the update will apply mostly to abusive or disruptive layout shifts. While these metrics are a narrow slice of the user experience, the good news is that Google has defined all of them in a fair amount of detail and allows you to track this data with tools like Google Lighthouse. So, we're in a unique position of being be able to prepare for the May algorithm update.

That said, I think you should improve site speed and user experience because it's a net-positive overall, not because of a pending 2021 update. If past history — including the HTTPS update and mobile-friendly update — is any indicator, Google's hope is to use the pre-announcement to push people to make changes now. I strongly suspect that Core Web Vitals will be a very minor ranking factor in the initial update, ramping up over a period of many months.

Passage indexing/ranking (TBD)

In October 2020, Google announced that they were "... now able to not just index web pages, but individual passages from the pages." They later clarified that this wasn't so much passage indexing as passage ranking, and the timeline wasn't initially clear. Danny Sullivan later clarified that this change did not roll out in 2020, but Google's language suggests that passage ranking is likely to roll out as soon as it's tested and ready.

While there's nothing specific you can do to harness passage ranking, according to Google, I think this change is not only an indicator of ML/AI progress but a recognition that you can have valuable, long-form content that addresses multiple topics. The rise of answers in SERPs (especially Featured Snippets and People Also Ask boxes) had a side-effect of causing people to think in terms of more focused, question-and-answer style content. While that's not entirely bad, I suspect it's generally driven people away from broader content to shorter, narrower content.

Even in 2020, there are many examples of rich, long-form content that ranks for multiple Featured/Snippets, but I expect passage ranking will re-balance this equation even more and give us increased freedom to create content in the best format for the topic at hand, without worrying too much about being laser-targeted on a single topic.

Core algorithm updates (TBD)

It's safe to say we can expect more core algorithm updates in 2021. There were three named "Core" updates in 2020 (January, May, and December), but the frequency and timing has been inconsistent. While there are patterns across the updates, thematically, each update seems to contain both new elements and some adjustments to old elements, and my own analysis suggests that the patterns (the same sites winning and losing, for example) aren't as prominent as we imagine. We can assume that Google's Core Updates will reflect the philosophy of their quality guidelines over time, but I don't think we can predict the timing or substance of any particular core update.

Googlebot crawling HTTP/2 (2022+)

Last fall, Google revealed that Googlebot would begin crawling HTTP/2 sites in November of 2020. It's not clear how much HTTP/2 crawling is currently happening, and Google said they would not penalize sites that don't support HTTP/2 and would even allow opt-out (for now). Unlike making a site secure (HTTPS) or mobile-friendly, HTTP/2 is not widely available to everyone and may depend on your infrastructure or hosting provider.

While I think we should pay attention to this development, don't make the switch to HTTP/2 in 2021 just for Google's sake. If it makes sense for the speed and performance of your site, great, but I suspect Google will be testing HTTP/2 and turning up the volume on it's impact slowly over the next few months. At some point, we might see a HTTPS-style announcement of a coming ranking impact, but if that happens, I wouldn't expect it until 2022 or later.

When will this end?

While COVID-19 may not seem like a marketing topic, the global economic impact is painfully clear at this point Any plans we make for 2021 have to consider the COVID-19 timeline, or they're a fantasy. When can we expect the pandemic to end and businesses to reopen on a national and global scale? Let me start by saying that I'm not a medical doctor — I'm a research psychologist by training. I don't have a crystal ball, but I know how to read primary sources and piece them together. What follows is my best read of the current facts and the 2021 timeline. I will try to avoid my own personal biases, but note that my read on the situation is heavily US-biased. I will generally avoid worst-case scenarios, like a major mutation of the virus, and stick to a median scenario.

Where are we at right now?

As I'm writing this sentence, over 4,000 people died just yesterday of COVID-19 in the US and over 14,000 globally. As a data scientist, I can tell you that every data point requires context, but when we cherry-pick the context, we deceive ourselves. What data science doesn't tell us is that everyone one of these data points is a human life, and that matters.

There is a light at the end of the tunnel, in the form of viable vaccines, including (here in the US and in the UK) the Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna, and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines. These vaccines have been approved in some countries, have demonstrated promising results, and are in production. Here in the US, we're currently behind the timeline on distribution, with the CDC reporting about 10 million people vaccinated as of mid-January (initial goal was 20 million vaccinated by the end of 2020). In terms of the timeline, it's important to note that, for maximum effectiveness, the major vaccines require two doses, separated by about 3-4 weeks (this may vary with the vaccine and change as research continues).

Is it getting better or worse?

I don't want to get mired in the data, but the winter holidays and travel are already showing a negative impact here in the US, and New Year's Eve may complicate problems. While overall death rates have improved due to better treatment options and knowledge of the disease, many states and countries are at or near peak case rates and peak daily deaths. This situation is very likely to get worse before it gets better.

When might we reopen?

I'm assuming, for better or worse, that reopening does not imply full "herd immunity" or a zero case-rate. We're talking about a critical mass of vaccinations and a significant flattening of the curve. It's hard to find a source outside of political debates here in the US, but a recent symposium sponsored by Harvard and the New England Journal of Medicine suggests that — if we can adequately ramp up vaccine distribution in the second quarter of 2021 — we could see measurable positive impact by the end of our summer (or early-to-mid third quarter) here in the US.

Any prediction right now requires a lot of assumptions and there may be massive regional differences in this timeline, but the key point is that the availability of the vaccine, while certainly cause for optimism, is not a magic wand. Manufacturing, distribution, and the need for a second dose all mean that we're realistically still looking at a few months for medical advances to have widespread impact.

What can we do now?

First, let me say that there is absolutely no one-size-fits-all answer to this question. Many local businesses were decimated, while e-commerce grew 32% year-over-year in 2020. If you're a local restaurant that managed to stay afloat, you may see a rapid return of customers in the summer or fall. If you're a major online retailer, you could actually see a reduction in sales as brick-and-mortar stores become viable again (although probably not to 2019 levels).

If your e-commerce business was lucky enough to see gains in 2020, Miracle Inameti-Archibong has some great advice for you. To inadequately summarize — don't take any of this for granted. This is a time to learn from your new customers, re-invest in your marketing, and show goodwill toward the people who are shopping online more because of the difficulties they're facing.

If you're stuck waiting to reopen, consider the lead time SEO campaigns require to have an impact. In a recent Whiteboard Friday, I made the case that SEO isn't an on/off switch. Consider the oversimplified diagram below. Paid search is a bit like the dotted gray line — you flip the switch on, and the leads starting flowing. The trade-off is that when you flip the switch off, the leads dry up almost immediately.

Organic SEO has a ramp-up. It's more like the blue curve above. The benefit of organic is that the leads keep coming when you stop investing, but it also means that the leads will take time to rebuild when you start to reinvest. This timeline depends on a lot of variables, but an organic campaign can often take 2-3 months or more to get off the ground. If you want to hit the ground running as reopening kicks in, you're going to need to start re-investing ahead of that timeline. I acknowledge that that might not be easy, and it doesn't have to be all or none.

In a recent interview, Mary Ellen Coe (head of Google Marketing Solutions) cited a 20,000% increase during the pandemic in searches from consumers looking to support local businesses. There's a tremendous appetite for reopening and a surge of goodwill for local businesses. If you're a local business, even if you're temporarily closed, it's important to let people know that you're still around and to keep them up-to-date on your reopening plans as they evolve.

I don't expect that the new normal will look much like the old normal, and I'm mindful that many businesses didn't survive to see 2021. We can't predict the future, but we can't afford to wait for months and do nothing, either, so I hope this at least gives you some idea of what to expect in the coming year and how we might prepare for it.

Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don't have time to hunt down but want to read!

[camerasieunhovn]

The Best-Laid Plans: Can We Predict Anything About 2021?

Posted by Dr-Pete

I've deleted this introduction twice. To say that no one could've predicted how 2020 unfolded seems trite since we're not even a month into 2021, and this new year has already unraveled. Our challenges in the past year, across the globe, have gone far beyond marketing, and I doubt any of us ended the year the way we expected. This graph from Google Trends tells the story better than I can:

The pandemic fundamentally rewrote the global economy in a way none of us has ever experienced, and yet we have to find a path forward. How do we even begin to chart a course in 2021?

What do we know?

Let's start small. Within our search marketing realm, is there anything we can predict with relative certainty in 2021? Below are some of the major announcements Google has made and trends that are likely to continue. While the timelines on some of these are unclear (and all are subject to change), these shifts in our small world are very likely.

Mobile-only indexing (March)

Mobile-first indexing has been in progress for a while, and most sites rolled over in 2020 or earlier. Google had originally announced that the index would fully default to mobile-first by September 2020, but pushed that timeline back in July (ostensibly due to the pandemic) to March 2021.

If you haven't made the switch to a mobile-friendly site at this point, there's not much time left to waste. Keep in mind that "mobile-first" isn't just about speed and user experience, but making sure that your mobile site is as crawlable as your desktop. If Google can't reach critical pages via your mobile design and internal links, then those pages are likely to drop out of the index. A page that isn't indexed is a page that doesn't rank.

Core Web Vitals (May)

While this date may change, Google has announced that Core Web Vitals will become a ranking factor in 2021. Here's a bit more detail from the official announcement ...

Page experience signals in ranking will roll out in May 2021. The new page experience signals combine Core Web Vitals with our existing search signals including mobile-friendliness, safe-browsing, HTTPS-security, and intrusive interstitial guidelines.

Many of these page experience signals already impact ranking to some degree, according to Google, so the important part really boils down to Core Web Vitals. You can get more of the details in this Whiteboard Friday from Cyrus, but the short version is that this is currently a set of three metrics (with unfortunately techie names): (1) Largest Contentful Paint (LCP) LCP measures how quickly the largest, visible block of your page loads. It is one view into perceived load-time and tries to filter out background libraries and other off-page objects.

(2) First Input Delay (FID) FID measures how much time it takes before a user can interact with your page. "Interact" here means the most fundamental aspects of interaction, like clicking an on-page link.

(3) Cumulative Layout Shift (CLS) CLS measures changes to your page layout, such as ads that appear or move after the initial page-load. I suspect the update will apply mostly to abusive or disruptive layout shifts. While these metrics are a narrow slice of the user experience, the good news is that Google has defined all of them in a fair amount of detail and allows you to track this data with tools like Google Lighthouse. So, we're in a unique position of being be able to prepare for the May algorithm update.

That said, I think you should improve site speed and user experience because it's a net-positive overall, not because of a pending 2021 update. If past history — including the HTTPS update and mobile-friendly update — is any indicator, Google's hope is to use the pre-announcement to push people to make changes now. I strongly suspect that Core Web Vitals will be a very minor ranking factor in the initial update, ramping up over a period of many months.

Passage indexing/ranking (TBD)

In October 2020, Google announced that they were "... now able to not just index web pages, but individual passages from the pages." They later clarified that this wasn't so much passage indexing as passage ranking, and the timeline wasn't initially clear. Danny Sullivan later clarified that this change did not roll out in 2020, but Google's language suggests that passage ranking is likely to roll out as soon as it's tested and ready.

While there's nothing specific you can do to harness passage ranking, according to Google, I think this change is not only an indicator of ML/AI progress but a recognition that you can have valuable, long-form content that addresses multiple topics. The rise of answers in SERPs (especially Featured Snippets and People Also Ask boxes) had a side-effect of causing people to think in terms of more focused, question-and-answer style content. While that's not entirely bad, I suspect it's generally driven people away from broader content to shorter, narrower content.

Even in 2020, there are many examples of rich, long-form content that ranks for multiple Featured/Snippets, but I expect passage ranking will re-balance this equation even more and give us increased freedom to create content in the best format for the topic at hand, without worrying too much about being laser-targeted on a single topic.

Core algorithm updates (TBD)

It's safe to say we can expect more core algorithm updates in 2021. There were three named "Core" updates in 2020 (January, May, and December), but the frequency and timing has been inconsistent. While there are patterns across the updates, thematically, each update seems to contain both new elements and some adjustments to old elements, and my own analysis suggests that the patterns (the same sites winning and losing, for example) aren't as prominent as we imagine. We can assume that Google's Core Updates will reflect the philosophy of their quality guidelines over time, but I don't think we can predict the timing or substance of any particular core update.

Googlebot crawling HTTP/2 (2022+)

Last fall, Google revealed that Googlebot would begin crawling HTTP/2 sites in November of 2020. It's not clear how much HTTP/2 crawling is currently happening, and Google said they would not penalize sites that don't support HTTP/2 and would even allow opt-out (for now). Unlike making a site secure (HTTPS) or mobile-friendly, HTTP/2 is not widely available to everyone and may depend on your infrastructure or hosting provider.

While I think we should pay attention to this development, don't make the switch to HTTP/2 in 2021 just for Google's sake. If it makes sense for the speed and performance of your site, great, but I suspect Google will be testing HTTP/2 and turning up the volume on it's impact slowly over the next few months. At some point, we might see a HTTPS-style announcement of a coming ranking impact, but if that happens, I wouldn't expect it until 2022 or later.

When will this end?

While COVID-19 may not seem like a marketing topic, the global economic impact is painfully clear at this point Any plans we make for 2021 have to consider the COVID-19 timeline, or they're a fantasy. When can we expect the pandemic to end and businesses to reopen on a national and global scale? Let me start by saying that I'm not a medical doctor — I'm a research psychologist by training. I don't have a crystal ball, but I know how to read primary sources and piece them together. What follows is my best read of the current facts and the 2021 timeline. I will try to avoid my own personal biases, but note that my read on the situation is heavily US-biased. I will generally avoid worst-case scenarios, like a major mutation of the virus, and stick to a median scenario.

Where are we at right now?

As I'm writing this sentence, over 4,000 people died just yesterday of COVID-19 in the US and over 14,000 globally. As a data scientist, I can tell you that every data point requires context, but when we cherry-pick the context, we deceive ourselves. What data science doesn't tell us is that everyone one of these data points is a human life, and that matters.

There is a light at the end of the tunnel, in the form of viable vaccines, including (here in the US and in the UK) the Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna, and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines. These vaccines have been approved in some countries, have demonstrated promising results, and are in production. Here in the US, we're currently behind the timeline on distribution, with the CDC reporting about 10 million people vaccinated as of mid-January (initial goal was 20 million vaccinated by the end of 2020). In terms of the timeline, it's important to note that, for maximum effectiveness, the major vaccines require two doses, separated by about 3-4 weeks (this may vary with the vaccine and change as research continues).

Is it getting better or worse?

I don't want to get mired in the data, but the winter holidays and travel are already showing a negative impact here in the US, and New Year's Eve may complicate problems. While overall death rates have improved due to better treatment options and knowledge of the disease, many states and countries are at or near peak case rates and peak daily deaths. This situation is very likely to get worse before it gets better.

When might we reopen?

I'm assuming, for better or worse, that reopening does not imply full "herd immunity" or a zero case-rate. We're talking about a critical mass of vaccinations and a significant flattening of the curve. It's hard to find a source outside of political debates here in the US, but a recent symposium sponsored by Harvard and the New England Journal of Medicine suggests that — if we can adequately ramp up vaccine distribution in the second quarter of 2021 — we could see measurable positive impact by the end of our summer (or early-to-mid third quarter) here in the US.

Any prediction right now requires a lot of assumptions and there may be massive regional differences in this timeline, but the key point is that the availability of the vaccine, while certainly cause for optimism, is not a magic wand. Manufacturing, distribution, and the need for a second dose all mean that we're realistically still looking at a few months for medical advances to have widespread impact.

What can we do now?

First, let me say that there is absolutely no one-size-fits-all answer to this question. Many local businesses were decimated, while e-commerce grew 32% year-over-year in 2020. If you're a local restaurant that managed to stay afloat, you may see a rapid return of customers in the summer or fall. If you're a major online retailer, you could actually see a reduction in sales as brick-and-mortar stores become viable again (although probably not to 2019 levels).

If your e-commerce business was lucky enough to see gains in 2020, Miracle Inameti-Archibong has some great advice for you. To inadequately summarize — don't take any of this for granted. This is a time to learn from your new customers, re-invest in your marketing, and show goodwill toward the people who are shopping online more because of the difficulties they're facing.

If you're stuck waiting to reopen, consider the lead time SEO campaigns require to have an impact. In a recent Whiteboard Friday, I made the case that SEO isn't an on/off switch. Consider the oversimplified diagram below. Paid search is a bit like the dotted gray line — you flip the switch on, and the leads starting flowing. The trade-off is that when you flip the switch off, the leads dry up almost immediately.

Organic SEO has a ramp-up. It's more like the blue curve above. The benefit of organic is that the leads keep coming when you stop investing, but it also means that the leads will take time to rebuild when you start to reinvest. This timeline depends on a lot of variables, but an organic campaign can often take 2-3 months or more to get off the ground. If you want to hit the ground running as reopening kicks in, you're going to need to start re-investing ahead of that timeline. I acknowledge that that might not be easy, and it doesn't have to be all or none.

In a recent interview, Mary Ellen Coe (head of Google Marketing Solutions) cited a 20,000% increase during the pandemic in searches from consumers looking to support local businesses. There's a tremendous appetite for reopening and a surge of goodwill for local businesses. If you're a local business, even if you're temporarily closed, it's important to let people know that you're still around and to keep them up-to-date on your reopening plans as they evolve.

I don't expect that the new normal will look much like the old normal, and I'm mindful that many businesses didn't survive to see 2021. We can't predict the future, but we can't afford to wait for months and do nothing, either, so I hope this at least gives you some idea of what to expect in the coming year and how we might prepare for it.

Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don't have time to hunt down but want to read!