#belgium vs russia

[head-post]

Belgium to send Kyiv F-16 fighter jets in 2025

According to Belgian Defence Minister Ludivine Dedonder, Belgium will hand over several of its F-16 fighter jets to Kyiv in 2025 and will offer maintenance of the fleet. Belgium will also continue training Ukrainian pilots.

Ludivine Dedonder made the statement ahead of a meeting of NATO defence ministe.

Read more HERE

[flagwars]

Olympic Flag Wars: Round 1

To celebrate the ongoing Olympic Games, this tournament will focus on the flags of Olympic host cities, including both summer and winter Olympics. For simplicity’s sake, I will be using the modern flags of these cities rather than the flag and country names from the time of the city’s Olympics. Not every host city has a flag, so not all of them will be included. I hope everyone enjoys this tournament!

Round 1:

1. Athens, Greece vs. Seoul, South Korea vs. Montreal, Canada vs. Stockholm, Sweden

2. Munich, Germany vs. Rio de Janeiro, Brazil vs. Sochi, Russia vs. Tokyo, Japan

3. Barcelona, Spain vs. Berlin, Germany vs. Antwerp, Belgium vs. Moscow, Russia

4. Atlanta, Georgia vs. Melbourne, Australia vs. Nagano, Japan vs. Calgary, Alberta

5. Turin, Italy vs. Helsinki, Finland vs. Paris, France vs. Sydney, Australia

6. Innsbruck, Austria vs. St. Louis, Missouri vs. Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Grenoble, France

7. St. Moritz, Switzerland vs. Vancouver, British Columbia vs. Los Angeles, California vs. Salt Lake City, Utah

8. Rome, Italy vs. Amsterdam, Netherlands vs. London, England vs. Sapporo, Japan vs. Oslo, Norway

[usafphantom2]

Can the old but powerful F-16 surpass Russia's most advanced Su-35 fighter?

While the F-16s piloted by Ukraine prepare to duel against the Russian Su-35s, this will be a conflict between Western and Russian views on how a fighter should be.

Fernando Valduga By Fernando Valduga 24/03/2024 - 23:41in Military, War Zones

In the skies of Ukraine, one of the most dramatic fighter duels in decades is taking shape between an aged but highly powerful Western jet and one of Russia's most advanced fighters: the battle of the F-16 Fighting Falcon against the Sukhoi Su-35. Who has the best chance of winning a fight?

This will be more than a fighter confrontation. It will be a battle of philosophies between the Russian conception of fighters optimized for air combat, versus the Western conception of jets equally adept at air-to-air and air-to-ground combat.

It is also a battle between the old and the new. The F-16s that Ukraine will receive were designed in the 1970s, although they have been heavily updated over the years. However, desperate to replace its ever-dinquering fleet of Soviet-era Su-27 and MiG-29 fighters, Ukraine will be pleased to receive 45 or more used F-16s from Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands and Norway, which are replacing their Falcons with F-35 stealth fighters. With Ukrainian pilots currently being trained in the US and other countries, the first F-16s piloted by Ukrainians will be able to fly in the middle of this year.

F-16 vs. Su-35: in numbers

F-16

Span: 9.45 meters

Length: 15.03 meters

Height: 5.09 meters

Weight: 8,495 kg without fuel

Speed: 2,414 km/h (Mach 2 at altitude)

Combat range (F-16A/B): 925 kilometers

Cost: $63 million for the latest F-16V model

Su-35

Span: 15.3 meters

Length: 21.9 meters

Height: 5.9 meters

Weight: 18,400 kg without fuel

Maximum speed: 2,414 km/h (Mach 2.25 in altitude)

Combat range: approx. 1,600 kilometers

Cost: US$ 85 million (estimated)

The Su-35 made its combat debut during Russia's intervention in 2016 in Syria. But the war in Ukraine marks the true baptism of fire of the Su-35 against an opponent equipped with modern fighters and anti-aircraft missiles.

Comparing the F-16 to the Su-35 is not easy. The F-16 is a fourth-generation aircraft that entered service in the late 1970s alongside the F-15 Eagle and the Soviet Su-27 and MiG-29. The Su-35 is considered part of the 4.5 generation, which are fourth-generation upgraded fighters that were introduced in the late 1990s, including the Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornet, Eurofighter Typhoon, Dassault Rafale and MiG-35.

"This is not a criticism of the F-16," said Brynn Tannehill, a defense expert and former U.S. Navy aviator, "but it was designed in the 1970s."

Anyway, the risks could not be greater. Although fighters manufactured in the US and Russia have been hurting since the Korean War in 1950, the next confrontation in the skies of Ukraine will be vital. Russian air power has performed poorly, despite numerical and technological superiority in Ukraine, but recent air attacks using glider bombs have devastated the Ukrainian defenses. To stop the constant Russian bombing and launch a successful counter-offensive, Ukraine will have to at least challenge air control and ideally be able to launch its own air strikes.

Viper and Flanker

The F-16 Fighting Falcon (commonly known as "Viper" and occasionally as "Lawn Dart") was conceived out of shame. During the Vietnam War, the most powerful nation in the world failed to dominate the small air force of North Vietnam. One of the reasons was that the U.S. military was using aircraft such as the F-4 Phantom - a powerful but heavy fighter, originally designed to intercept Soviet bombers instead of agile MiGs in air combat.

This stimulated a controversial group of innovators - the legendary "fighter mafia" - to convince the U.S. Air Force that it needed a small, light and relatively cheap fighter that could perform dogfights, instead of relying on long-range air-to-air missiles, as the F-4 had. The result was one of the most prolific modern jets, with more than 4,600 built since 1976, used by 25 countries and growing. He also saw more combat than most current fighters, especially by the U.S. and Israeli air forces.

"It's a good aircraft in practically everything, but it's not the best in anything."

The Viper is about 15 meters long, 10 meters long and weighs about 10 tons. It can reach a speed of Mach 2 (double the speed of sound), is highly maneuverable and is armed with a 20 mm cannon, as well as 11 hardpoints to transport weapons and lenable tanks, as well as pods to block radars and identify ground targets for accurately guided ammunition. Its exact weaponry in Ukrainian hands will depend on the ammunition that the US and Europe agree to send, but the F-16 is equally formidable in air-to-air and air-to-ground missions. In addition to the air-to-air missiles guided by medium-range AIM-120 radar and the AIM-9 Sidewinder heat-guided missiles, it can carry JDAM glider pumps, HARM anti-radiation missiles and probably European long-range missiles, such as the Storm Shadow from Great Britain. The advanced medium-range air-to-air missile AIM-120, or AMRAAM, is particularly important. Unlike Ukraine's current radar-guided air-to-air missiles, which require the launch aircraft to continuously keep the radar fixed on the target, the AMRAAM has a "shot and forget" on-board radar that locks autonomously on the target.

But versatility in all things means less capacity in anything. “You can use the F-16 for air-to-air combat, but it's not as good as an F-15′′,” says Tannehill. “You can use it for approximate air support, but it's not as good as an A-10. It can perform ground attacks, but it's not as good as an F-15E Strike Eagle. ... It's a good aircraft in practically everything, but it's not the best at all."

The Su-35 also has a complicated story. It is a descendant of the Su-27 of the late 1970s (NATO codename: "Flanker"), an aircraft of air superiority designed for air-to-air combat. It was intended to be the Soviet response to the F-15: just look at the two twin-engine aircraft to see that they have more in common than the F-15 has with the single-engine F-16.

The Su-35 was conceived in the early 1980s as a more maneuverable version of the Su-27 Flanker (hence the Su-35 being known as "Flanker-E" or "Super Flanker"). After Sukhoi tried several prototypes under the Soviet and then Russian governments, the current Su-35 took shape in the early 2000s as an improved Su-27 with some air-to-ground capacity that makes it more similar to fighter-bombers such as the F-16.

The Su-35 simply surpasses the F-16. With a length of 22 meters and a wingspan of 15 meters, the Su-35 is about 50% larger than the F-16; with more than 18 tons, it has almost twice the weight of the Viper. The Su-35 is armed with a 30 mm cannon, as well as a dozen hardpoints capable of launching a series of air-to-air and air-to-ground ammunition. What is of particular concern to Ukraine and the West are its R-37 and R-77 long-range radar air-to-air missiles, which are "shir and forget" missiles and which can hit Ukrainian aircraft out of range of Ukrainian aviation.

To complicate things is the variety of aircraft involved. There are many variants of the half-century-old F-16, including several "blocks" of U.S. Air Force Vipers, as well as country-specific models for nations like Israel. The latest version is the F-16 Block 70, with an APG-83 AESA radar, an updated engine and conformal fuel tanks.

But the Danish and Dutch F-16s promised to Ukraine are models of the Cold War. They are F-16 MLU (Mid Life Update) models, which are European F-16A/Bs from the late 1970s that were updated in the mid-1990s with features such as an improved AN/APG-66(V)2 radar (an older non-AESA sensor), GPS navigation and the ability to launch AIM-120 missiles. It is reasonable to assume that they are inferior to the most recent Vipers, but much superior to the F-16s of the Cold War era.

"With the Mid-Life update, what you should keep in mind is that these aircraft have been continuously updated with software that allows them to use modern weapons," explains Tannehill.

The Su-35 is more maneuverable, but that won't help

Usually, a smaller vehicle is more maneuverable than a larger vehicle. But for jet fighters, it's not that simple. There are a variety of technical factors, such as alar load (advantage: F-16) and thrust-weight ratio for fast acceleration (advantage: Su-35).

What is remarkable is that the Su-35 is considered "supermanoeuverable", largely because it uses thrust vectorization, which employs directionable nozzles to direct the thrust of the motor. Using a capacity found in only a few aircraft - including the F-22 and the Su-30MKI - the Su-35 can perform the spectacular "Sobra maneuver", where the fighter slows down abruptly and stays in the tail, forcing an enemy aircraft behind to overtake by speed.

Although impressive in air shows, the Cobra maneuver also deprives an aircraft of speed and energy, which is not good in air combat. But the real problem is that, although maneuverability was a problem in World War II or the Vietnam War, it is not an important factor in modern air combat. If today's jets go into combat, it is probably because one or both sides made a mistake or did not have the technical capacity for an attack out of visual range. The tendency is that modern fighters, such as the F-35, act as aerial snipers that stealther their prey with a long-range air-to-air missile that the target does not even detect until it is too late.

"What really matters is your radar, your range, your [network] connectivity and how unobservable [stealth] you are," says Tannehill. "The radar determines when you see the other guy. The range allows you to determine when you can shoot. Stealth allows you to get closer."

In fact, this has been the standard in the Russo-Ukrainian War. Fearing advanced ground-to-air missiles, such as the Russian S-400 and the US Patriot, both Russian and Ukrainian aircraft remained on their respective sides of the front line, instead of penetrating enemy airspace. Even if the Su-35 is really supermaneuvrable - which has not yet been proven in real combat - the war in Ukraine did not provide an opportunity to demonstrate this characteristic.

The Su-35 is the best sniper

Unfortunately for Ukraine, the Su-35 is deadly in air combat beyond visual range, as well as in air combat. First, the Su-35 can locate the F-16 before the Viper detects the Flanker-E; the Su-35's Irbis-E radar can detect air targets up to 400 kilometers (249 miles) away, according to its manufacturer, Tikhomirov.

Irbis is not very modern. It is a passive electronic scanning (PESA) system, which uses a single transmitter/receiver to emit a single beam on a single frequency through multiple antennas. This allows the radar beam to be electronically directed to different directions, without the need to mechanically rotate the antennas. This is not as advanced as the AESA radars used in many Western fighters - including the latest models F-16 Block 70 and Block 72 - which use multiple transmitters to emit multiple signals at multiple frequencies simultaneously.

EFSA radars can track multiple targets and are less susceptible to interference. However, Ukraine is not receiving F-16s equipped with EFSA. The AN/APG-66(V)2 radar of the F-16 MLU is a pulse doppler system with mechanically directed antennas that offer slower scanning at one frequency at a time. "The pulse-doppler is part of the 1980s crop," says Tannehill.

In addition, the Su-35 radar is more powerful. It has 5 kilowatts of power compared to only 770 watts of the AN/APG-66(V)2, says Tannehill. "I'm not saying he can see five times farther or ten times farther, but he can see much further than an APG-66."

As if the upper radar were not enough, the Su-35 has - on paper - better missiles. The R-37 has an estimated target detection range of 400 kilometers (249 miles), while the R-77-1 has a range of 110 kilometers (68 miles). These active "shoot and forget" guided missiles hit the neighborhood of their target and then use their own radar on board to hit the target.

The effectiveness of these missiles at such extreme distances is questionable, but against the oldest planes in Ukraine, the Su-35 has been lethal. The Su-35 and Su-30SM, flying safely behind the Russian lines at 30,000 feet, are focusing on Ukrainian jets with their Irbis radar and then firing R-37 and R-77-1 missiles. Ukrainian fighters are armed with Soviet-era R-27 missiles, with a range of about 80 kilometers. These weapons from the early 1980s use semi-active radar that requires the launcher aircraft to continuously illuminate the target with a radar beam.

“Ukrainian pilots confirm that Russia's Su-30SM and Su-35S completely outperform the fighters of the Ukrainian Air Force on a technical level,” according to a November 2022 report by the British think tank Royal United Services Institute. “Throughout the war, Russian fighters have often managed to lock the radar and launch R-77-1 missiles against Ukrainian fighters more than 100 kilometers [62 miles] away. Even if these shots have a low probability of slaughter, they force Ukrainian pilots to be on the defensive or run the risk of being hit while still very out of their effective range, and some of these long-range shots hit the target."

The US agreed to arm Ukraine's F-16s with the advanced medium-range air-to-air missile AIM-120, first deployed in 1991. Although the U.S. Air Force website lists the range of the AMRAAM as more than 20 miles, it is estimated that the latest AIM-120D has a range of about 160 kilometers, which would surpass the R-77, but not the R-37. The Ukrainian government said in September 2023 that its AMRAAMs would have a range of about 160 to 180 kilometers (99 to 112 miles), which points to the AIM-120D.

Final Verdict

The result of a long-range missile duel between Flanker-E and Viper will depend on many factors, including the quality of airborne blockers and baits, how well these fighters are integrated into radars and ground missiles, and coordination between the Su-35s fighters and Russian A50 airborne radar aircraft.

And there are still other factors that may not become evident until the combat is started. Equipped with the standard NATO Link 16 data link, the F-16 probably has a higher network capacity than the Su-35. This will make it easier for the Vipers to coordinate with other air and ground platforms, including receiving early alerts and targeting data from other sensors. Although advanced Russian aircraft also have data links, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has been plagued by unreliable communication systems and a strict command and control.

Even if they were at a disadvantage and in smaller numbers, the Ukrainian F-16s could fly low to avoid radar detection amid the confusion on the ground and then use sensor data from other platforms to launch an AIM-120 against Russian aircraft. “Russians can find out in the hardest way how good the datalink plus AMRAAM is,” says Tannehill.

Or maybe the Ukrainian F-16s try to avoid air combat whenever possible. Instead, they can be considered more valuable as air-to-ground platforms, launching HARM anti-radiation missiles against Russian air defense radars, and cruise missiles and glider bombs against bridges, supply depots and command posts.

For Russia, the threat posed by the Su-35 will keep the F-16s under control. The duel between two of the most competent fighters in the world can end in a draw.

Source: Popular Mechanics

Tags: Military AviationF-16 Fighting FalconSu-35 FlankerWar Zones - Russia/Ukraine

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Fernando Valduga

Fernando Valduga

Aviation photographer and pilot since 1992, he has participated in several events and air operations, such as Cruzex, AirVenture, Dayton Airshow and FIDAE. He has works published in specialized aviation magazines in Brazil and abroad. He uses Canon equipment during his photographic work in the world of aviation.

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[kendrixtermina]

Palestine and the Crisis of Democracy

While right now the main attention should rightfully be on the immediate victims of this ongoing catastrophe, this incident has also exposed how much the power of lobbying groups & corporate interests has eroded western democracies.

At this point they’re not meaningfully different from China or Russia aside from being wealthier. What have China or Russia done that the USA isn’t allowing its client state to do right now?

We’re supposed to have free speech? Where is our free speech now, if being anti war can cost you your job & the media is owned by the corporations.

At this point ppl in the global south are 100% justified to distrust the western bloc as much as we distrust China or Russia.

We’re approaching a 1984-ish situation of 3 identical superpowers ravaging contested territories in endless proxy wars.

That said, it’s tempting to go ranting about „the evil west“ or „the whites“ or curse all israelis – and don’t get me wrong, the west as an institution has proven its moral bankrupcy and IDF as an organization with a culture of fomenting this needs to be dismantled & abolished even more badly then ICE or the USA police.

But when you look at the people on the ground, not politicians or media, but at the individual human people, that’s not really the case: We’re seeing record protest turnouts everywhere.

Politicians are being swarmed with protest mails. (I just sent some myself)

Even in the USA, two thirds of the population want a ceasefire. Heck, even in israel, 62% want a ceasefire.

And there’s no telling how much of the rest genuinely want this vs. Being misled or confused by propaganda. Don’t get me wrong: Those people making mocking tiktoks are evil and I’d love to see them roasted on a skewer, but they are NOT the majority and acting like they are is bad tactics.

So what does this mismatch tell us?

We don’t have functioning democracies right now.

Maybe some South Americans do, maybe Belgium and Spain and Ireland, but the rest of us?

Not so much.

We gotta fix that, not just for our sake, but for what it does to the rest of the world.

Whoever’s in charge isn’t us, and its a dreadful mixture of incompetence and evil.

It’s not that all people, not even all western people, are terrible and evil. It’s that right now, in both the USA and even Germany with it’s 6 mainstream parties, there’s no viable candidate you can vote for that will not support this madness.

Nobody really benefits from this, or wants this, but a small coalition of fascists, the military industrial complex, a few crooked politicians, and a bunch of opportunistic hatecrimers of antisemitic, islamophobic and/or arabophobic persuasions.

This is what happens when problems that are pointed out time & time again don’t get fixed: Like the longstanding human rights abuses in Israel (that were known aout for SO LONG!), the existence of veto powers deadlocking the UN, legalized bribery & first-past-the-post system in the USA, USA hegemonic control of europe…

It was a perfect storm of every long-standing flaw in the system coming together to create a perfect storm of horror.

- but the first ones to sin are usually the last ones to bleed and the ones who pay the bulk of the price are, as ever so often, those who were already the most oppressed.

So what do we do?

Vote small party, maybe, for europeans. Vote in primaries to get the bought-out mainstream candidates out, if youre in the US.

Protest, complaining and combatting misinformation is gonna be an important tool while our democracies are compromised, we can’t rely on voting alone.

If us talking didn’t help they wouldn’t try to shut us up.

Messaging wise, on this issue, we might stress being anti-war. They’re trying a different smear because mocking anti-war ppl as bleeding-heart hippys doesn’t work anymore.

They can’t say being anti-war is antisemitic.

It’s important, of course, that (unlike the hippys) we don’t slip into wishy-washyness here or peace at any price that just basically the oppressed shutting up. Just peace or no peace. Lasting Peace of no Peace.

But peace has an appeal to most people, even those inclined to be wishy-washy or apolitical.

I think selling them on Lasting Peace and Just Peace might work better than shaming them for not being hardliner enough.

It’s super cynical and fucked up that we’re even having to THINK about „marketing“ when people are dying, but we need to convince people, especially since the usefulness of our votes is currently compromised.

Even a king must yield if there’s a mob with pitchforks outside the door.

[yanxidarlings]

what r u working on rn bro how many requests u got

i honestly keep getting distracted by other fandoms 💀 but rn i have a few things in the drafts such as an aph axis ask from a few years ago i really need to finish (finished writing it then made the mistake of using emoji's in the tags which deleted my unsaved progress), just some general poly slytherin still thinkin of a topic, the theos™ with an oblivious darling (might try and get to this done soon as an experiment with one shots instead of just headcanons), aph romano and prussia sharing and aph russia, belarus and ukraine sharing.

as for my actual requests, hooo boy, i did go through and remove some of the asks i know im never getting to but here is a summary of the rest sorted by fandom. so to answer the actual question i have 32 requests give or take

HETALIA

axis: blind and deaf, oblivious

misc: poor, spouse, potus, communist, hate

vs: austria and germany

general: japan, france, england, canada, austria, china, spain, sweden, poland, latvia, belgium, hungary, vietnam

HARRY POTTER

poly: theo and tom, mattheo and enzo, the theo's finding out m darling is gay, the theo's forcing darling to become death eater, bully mattheo and draco, harry and mattheo

misc: slytherin and ravenclaws react to being darling's boggart

general: cedric, enzo with cruel darling, fleur with f slytherin darling

bot: tom riddle

THE WALKING DEAD

general: rick, merle, daryl, governer

this, on top of the mountains of ideas i have circulating in my head.

[frida-kahl-of-the-rocky-horror]

Important PSA:

Patriotism vs Nationalism vs Jingoism:

Patriotism: I love my country when she is right, I acknowledge my country when she is wrong

A patriot loves their country, celebrates when their country does good things, holds remembrance when their country disappoints them. A patriot from one nation can be friends with a patriot from another nation, and may even be patriotic for multiple nations. When their country achieves greatness, they are genuinely proud. When their country claims to achieve greatness but achieved nothing, they feel empty. A patriot typically values unity for all over prosperity for a few. They value the opinions of people critical of the country they love, and see constructive criticism as a form of love for their country.

Nationalism: I love my country, right or wrong, may she always do right

A nationalist loves their country, celebrates their country when their country does good things, and typically ignores or refuses to acknowledge that their country can do bad things. A nationalist believes their country is the best country to ever exist and thus may find it difficult to be friends with a patriot or another nationalist (for, only one nationalist’s opinion can be true). A nationalist rarely is nationalistic to more than one nation. A Nationalist cannot tell the difference between genuinely achieved greatness and false claims to genuine achieved greatness. A nationalist typically values unity for as many people as possible as long as it leads to prosperity primarily for them. They ignore the opinions of people critical of the country they love, often believing they are “fake news”.

Jingoism: I love my country, right or wrong, she is ALWAYS right

A jingoist loves their country, celebrates their country when their country does good things, and will celebrate their country when their country does evil by finding some way to make said evil good, for a jingoist believes their country is unable to be bad. A jingoist believes their country is the best country to ever exist and thus all other countries should be subservient to their country, if not outright invaded and forced into submission. A jingoist could never be friends with a jingoist from another country nor a patriot from another country nor a nationalist from another country. A jingoist does not care about the difference between genuine achieved greatness, false claims to genuine achieved greatness, or even acknowledgements of wrongdoings for their country is always correct no matter what. A jingoist could care less about unity, as long as they and other “real countrymen” are prosperous, that is all that matters. They hate the opinions of people critical of the country they love, and will silence and suppress them.

Examples:

Patriots: The vast majority of people in the vast majority of countries. Most Americans are included under this label, because, if there’s one thing most Americans can agree on, it’s how bad their country is (whether that be “our deficit is too high and we don’t take care of our vets” or “legalized racism is still a problem and the withdrawal from Afghanistan was too early”)

Nationalists: Extremists (eg Neo Confederates, Reagan obsessed conservatives) and many former colonial countries, including Japan, the UK, France, Spain, Turkey, China, Russia, and to a lesser extent, Belgium, Netherlands, and Portugal. For example, most Brits genuinely believe that the British empire did more good than bad, and Japanese history in schools paints Japan in WW2 as a victim. Similarly, Neo Confederates focus on the “greatness” of the CSA without thinking about the not so great parts of it… like, ykno, slavery. Note, this is not all the people of these nations, more their governments

Jingoists: Nazis, modern day Israel under Netanyahu, the propaganda media, and extreme Zionism, MAGA Anti-Woke WASP Americans, Putin’s inner circle, the KKK, and North Korea to name a few. It’s very cult like to say the least, and often genocidal.

The Fourth Category: I love my country when she is right, and I am disturbed when she is wrong, so I will focus on when she is wrong more than when she is right, because I believe righting these wrongs is more important than anything else, and that is how I show love for my country

I’m not sure what to call this category, and only two nations — Germany and Rwanda — fit within this category really, though their are minorities of people in other countries (namely, USA, UK, Canada, New Zealand, Australia, most Latin American countries, most settler colonialist countries, and Netherlands) who view their country this way

Be a Patriot not a Jingo!!!

[arbitrarygreay]

It makes sense that the show pulled back on the international world-building pretty quickly. The primary aesthetic of the show is all rooted in that Salem origin, so they don't want to stray too far from it. But it's still really fun to think about. We have to go to the beginning, don't we? And then wonder about before that. There's a sense that the Salem Accords were unprecedented. The implications of this is that the formality of which the US Military Forces being comprised of witches, but yet the culture being still somewhat segregated, was not the case in other nations before that point. Which is really weird, honestly, the idea that the existence of witches did not have any affect whatsoever on the rise and fall of the likes of Rome, Egypt, or the Islamic empires? So, then, we have to narrow the context to the relevant parties in the region during the American Revolution. Sarah Alder looked at all of the potential factions around her at the time (Britain, France, Spain, Native), and somehow decided that the British colonists who wanted to break away were her best bet. Alder is a Scottish origin surname (while Lyne is from Belgium). Despite her modern differentiation between human and witch, it's more than likely that she worked through racial and nationalist prejudices over the centuries. So, then, let's assume that the state of how Natives, France, and Spain treated witches was not a factor for Sarah's consideration at the time. This means that Britain's culture was not witch-friendly, so they wouldn't have a witch force in their military, except under DADT plausible deniability cases. It also means that Britain nonetheless achieved their colonial power with this mindset. This implies that nowhere else in the world was open usage of witch powers sufficient to outweigh conventional military power. Despite the Cession not splitting between witch and civilian leadership, evidently having a more witch-friendly culture was not sufficient for the Americas not to get colonized by European powers that were Camarilla-friendly.

Meanwhile, the show also implies that witch-vs.-witch combat was not a norm before the Spree. Other nations imitating the Salem Accords did not result in each nations' witches battling each other. This implies that America achieved global hegemony with Alder's military way faster than in our world, such that Alder was able to control the formation of the UN-equivalent international Witch Council at the Hague to reinforce that status. (She had enough power that apparently no one else in the world has created immortality/avatar workings like hers? Highly doubt that other researchers couldn't figure it out, so she had to have banned it beyond herself and the Marshal.) The Hague meeting in S1E3 is chock full of intriguing details. The Russian general's uniform does have a red star on the lapel, which implies that there was still a Communist Revolution in that region. However, the general also refers to his nation as Russia, and not the Soviet Union. The political tensions over the Tarim showed that Russia does not share a closer relationship to China than it does to the US (whereas India has more sympathies). And, obviously, the fact that China is not a part of the Hague council at all. But, the US president is still named as the the "leader of the free nations", so if China had a different relationship to its witches than the rest of the world following the US model, it was not enough to result in China as a meaningful global hegemon rival. Perhaps China is still isolationist in this world, which might indicate that there was not Communist Revolution there and they're still on the Dynastic model. However, China being aggressive about the Tarim doesn't seem isolationist. But I wonder if the international geopolitics would have been where the show went next. Assuming that they only ran the First Song storyline in S3 because they got cancelled, then it makes a lot of sense that the first portion of the show was the US having to clean its own house. Once that is done, though, they can only look back outwards. And that "China is not here" thread seems way too juicy not to explore. The Last Ship was covering those sorts of dynamics, so that kind of plotting is viable for cable TV. For one thing, all of the holiday touchstones the show uses are carry-overs from Europe. I do wonder why exactly the Marshal celebrated Yule, except maybe as a courtesy to his charges. Maybe the crack about the log getting heavier every year was a joke. Or maybe the Marshal is of mixed heritage. Anyways, there's no way that the Middle East and South Asia and East Asia and Africa are also still using those holidays. Which then brings up the question of immigrants. China's absence from the Hague obviously didn't prevent the noticeable presence of many high ranking Asian-American members in the military. Is Tally's ignorance of High-Atlantic holidays because she actually has more knowledge of East Asian practices in California? We see skepticism by the High Atlantics towards Raelle's "Christo-pagan" chants, but where does Islam even fit into this world-building?

(And yes, I do have rather mixed feelings about them suddenly elevating the Mycelium from the product of one moment of human grief to suddenly All According To Keikaku From The Beginning Of Time. They even acknowledged that fungus wouldn't be a relevant power in certain parts of the world due to climate.)

[goat-esc-winner-showdown]

ROUND 1 WINNERS

Round 1 Poll 1: "What's Another Year" - Johnny Logan (Ireland, 1980) vs "Arcade" - Duncan Laurence (Netherlands, 2019)

Round 1 Poll 2: "Tu te reconnaîtras" - Anne-Marie David (Luxembourg, 1973) vs "Euphoria" - Loreen (Sweden, 2012)

Round 1 Poll 3: "J'aime la vie" - Sandra Kim (Belgium, 1986) vs "Ein bißchen Frieden" - Nicole (Germany, 1982)

Round 1 Poll 4: "Puppet on a String" - Sandie Shaw (United Kingdom, 1967) vs "The Voice" - Eimear Quinn (Ireland, 1996)

Round 1 Poll 5: "Boom Bang-a-Bang" - Lulu (United Kingdom, 1969) vs "Tom Pillibi" - Jacqueline Boyer (France, 1960)

Round 1 Poll 6: "Rise Like a Phoenix" - Conchita Wurst (Austria, 2014) vs "Toy" - Netta (Israel, 2018)

Round 1 Poll 7: "Refrain" - Lys Assia (Switzerland, 1956) vs "Everyway That I Can" - Sertab Erener (Turkey, 2003)

Round 1 Poll 8: "Diva" (דיווה) - Dana International (Israel, 1998) vs "Satellite" - Lena (Germany, 2010)

Round 1 Poll 9: "Si la vie est cadeau" - Corinne Hermès (Luxembourg, 1983) vs "La det swinge" - Bobbysocks! (Norway, 1985)

Round 1 Poll 10: "Nous les amoureux" - Jean-Claude Pascal (Luxembourg, 1961) vs "Un banc, un arbre, une rue" - Séverine (Monaco, 1971)

Round 1 Poll 11: "Dors, mon amour" - André Claveau (France, 1958) vs "Ne partez pas sans moi" - Céline Dion (Switzerland, 1988)

Round 1 Poll 12: "1944" - Jamala Jamala (Ukraine, 2016) vs "Save Your Kisses for Me" - Brotherhood of Man (United Kingdom, 1976)

Round 1 Poll 13: "Waterloo" - ABBA (Sweden, 1974) vs "Hold Me Now" - Johnny Logan (Ireland, 1987)

Round 1 Poll 14: "Take Me to Your Heaven" - Charlotte Nilsson (Sweden, 1999) vs "Zitti e buoni" - Måneskin (Italy, 2021)

Round 1 Poll 15: "Why Me?" - Linda Martin (Ireland, 1992) vs Ukraine "Wild Dances" - Ruslana (Ukraine, 2004)

Round 1 Poll 16: "Stefania" (Стефанія) - Kalush Orchestra (Ukraine, 2022) vs "De troubadour" - Lenny Kuhr (Netherlands, 1969)

Round 1 Poll 17: "Only Teardrops" - Emmelie de Forest (Denmark, 2013) vs "Nocturne" - Secret Garden (Norway, 1995)

Round 1 Poll 18: "Hallelujah" (הללויה) - Milk and Honey (Israel, 1979) vs "Molitva" (Молитва) - Marija Šerifović (Serbia, 2007)

Round 1 Poll 19: "Diggi-Loo Diggi-Ley" - Herreys (Sweden, 1984) vs "I Wanna" - Marie N (Latvia, 2002)

Round 1 Poll 20: "Fairytale" - Alexander Rybak (Norway, 2009) vs "Merci, Chérie" - Udo Jürgens (Austria, 1966)

Round 1 Poll 21: "Fångad av en stormvind" - Carola (Sweden, 1991) vs "A-Ba-Ni-Bi" (א-ב-ני-בי) - Izhar Cohen and the Alphabeta (Israel, 1978)

Round 1 Poll 22: "Après toi" - Vicky Leandros (Luxembourg, 1972) vs "Love Shine a Light" - Katrina and the Waves (United Kingdom, 1997)

Round 1 Poll 23: "Dansevise" - Grethe and Jørgen Ingmann (Denmark, 1963) vs "Fly on the Wings of Love" - Olsen Brothers (Denmark, 2000)

Round 1 Poll 24: "Making Your Mind Up" - Bucks Fizz (United Kingdom, 1981) vs "L'Oiseau et l'Enfant" - Marie Myriam (France, 1977)

Round 1 Poll 25: "Insieme: 1992" - Toto Cutugno (Italy, 1990) vs "Everybody" - Tanel Padar, Dave Benton and 2XL (Estonia, 2001)

Round 1 Poll 26: "All Kinds of Everything" - Dana (Ireland, 1970) vs "In Your Eyes" - Niamh Kavanagh (Ireland, 1993)

Round 1 Poll 27: "Hard Rock Hallelujah" - Lordi (Finland, 2006) vs "Net als toen" - Corry Brokken (Netherlands, 1957)

Round 1 Poll 28: "Een beetje" - Teddy Scholten (Netherlands, 1959) vs "Heroes" - Måns Zelmerlöw (Sweden, 2015)

Round 1 Poll 29: "Rock 'n' Roll Kids" - Paul Harrington and Charlie McGettigan (Ireland, 1994) vs "My Number One" - Helena Paparizou (Greece, 2005)

Round 1 Poll 30: "Running Scared" - Ell and Nikki (Azerbaijan, 2011) vs "Amar pelos dois" - Salvador Sobral (Portugal, 2017)

Round 1 Poll 31: "Poupée de cire, poupée de son" - France Gall (Luxembourg, 1965) vs "Believe" - Dima Bilan (Russia, 2008)

Round 1 Poll 32: "Vivo cantando" - Salomé (Spain, 1969) vs "Tattoo" - Loreen (Sweden, 2023)

[eurovision-song-bracket]

Bracket Two

“My Lucky Day” (Moldova, 2018) VS “Why Me?” (Ireland 1992)

“Queen of Kings” (Norway 2023) VS “La Det Swinge” (Norway 1985)

“Angel in Disguise” (Latvia 2011) VS “Dors, Mon Amour” (France 1958)

“Promise” (Australia 2023) VS  “Love Shine a Light” (UK 1997)

“Spirit In The Sky” (Norway 2019) VS “Wild Dances” (Ukraine 2004)

“Irlande Douze Pointe” (Ireland 2008) VS “In Your Eyes” (Ireland 1993)

“Blood and Glitter” (Germany 2023) VS “Tom Pillibi” (France 1960)

“Dancing lasha tumbai” (Ukraine 2012) VS “Merci, Chérie” (Austria 1966)

“Spaceman” (UK 2022) VS “Après Toi” (Luxembourg 1972) 

"Aijā” (Latvia 2023) VS “Only Teardrops” (Denmark 2013)

“Fallen Angel” (Norway 2021) VS “Hallelujah” (Israel 1979)

“Eat Your Salad” (Latvia 2022) VS “Satellite” (Germany 2010)

“Trenuleţul” (Moldova 2022) VS “Fångad av en stormvind” (Sweden 1991)

“Heart of Steel” (Ukraine 2023) VS “A-Ba-Ni-Bi” (Israel 1978)

“Me and My Guitar” (Belgium 2010) VS “Running Scared” (Azerbaijan 2011)

“Jezebel” (Finland 2022) VS “Believe” (Russia 2008)

[residentraccoon]

Eurovision 2006 vs 2007

Got some free time rn so why shouldn't I do this. Again, inspired by @six-paths-of-jeanmarco

Albania: Zjarr e ftohtë vs Hear My Plea

Andorra: Sense tu vs Salvem el món

Armenia: Without Your Love vs Anytime You Need

Austria: Get a Life – Get Alive

Belarus: Mum vs Work Your Magic

Belgium: Je t'adore vs LovePower

Bosnia and Herzegovina: Lejla vs Rijeka bez imena

Bulgaria: Let Me Cry vs Water

Croatia: Moja štikla vs Vjerujem u ljubav

Cyprus: Why Angels Cry vs Comme ci, comme ça

Czechia: Malá dáma

Denmark: Twist of Love vs Drama Queen

Estonia: Through My Window vs Partners in Crime

Finland: Hard Rock Hallelujah vs Leave Me Alone (but I really love Leave me alone as well)

France: Il était temps vs L'Amour à la française

Georgia: Visionary Dream

Germany: No No Never vs Frauen regier'n die Welt (WHY DO YOU MAKE ME CHOOSE I LOVE BOTH but okay I'll choose the one that I listened the most)

Greece: Everything vs Yassou Maria (listen Anna Vissi is great but I prefer her other 2 songs sorry :((( )

Hungary: Unsubstantial Blues

Iceland: Congratulations vs Valentine Lost (WHAT AN UNDERRATED SONG this should have qualified)

Ireland: Every Song Is a Cry for Love vs They Can't Stop the Spring

Israel: Together We Are One vs Push the Button (none lol)

Latvia: I Hear Your Heart vs Questa notte

Lithuania: We Are the Winners vs Love or Leave (but we are the winners is iconic too)

Malta: I Do vs Vertigo

Monaco: La Coco-Dance

Moldova: Loca vs Fight

Montenegro: Ajde, kroči

Netherlands: Amambanda vs On Top of the World

North Macedonia: Ninanajna vs Mojot svet

Norway: Alvedansen vs Ven a bailar conmigo

Poland: Follow My Heart vs Time to Party

Portugal: Coisas de nada vs Dança comigo

Romania: Tornerò vs Liubi, Liubi, I Love You (do I even have to explain)

Russia: Never Let You Go vs Song #1

Serbia: Molitva

Slovenia: Mr. Nobody vs Cvet z juga

Spain: Bloody Mary vs I Love You Mi Vida

Sweden: Invincible vs The Worrying Kind

Switzerland: If We All Give a Little vs Vampires Are Alive

Türkiye: Süper Star vs Shake It Up Şekerim

Ukraine: Show Me Your Love vs Dancing Lasha Tumbai (BRUH this is hard. Both?)

United Kingdom: Teenage Life vs Flying the Flag (For You) (both cringe sorry)

2006: 17

2007: 20

2007 wins!

[brookston]

Holidays 12.5

Holidays

AFL-CIO Day

Bathtub Party Day (a.k.a. Party in the Tub Day)

Battle of Longewaia Day (India)

Bhumibol Adulyadej Memorial Day (Thailand)

Blue Jeans Day

Boycott Day

Celebrate Shelter Pets Day

Children’s Day (Suriname)

Colorado Gives Day (Colorado)

Day of Military Honor - Battle of Moscow (Russia)

Day of the Ninja (a.k.a. International Ninja Day)

Die Like a Pirate Day

Discovery Day (Dominican Republic, Haiti)

Father’s Day (Thailand)

Female Community Health Volunteers’ Day (Nepal)

Folding Chair Day

Fraternity Day

International Ninja Day  (a.k.a. International Creep Like a Ninja Day)

International Volunteer Day

International Volunteer Day for Economic and Social Development (UN)

Irrational Exuberance Day

Klozum (Netherlands)

Let's Get Organized Day

Montgomery Bus Boycott Anniversary Day

National Communicate with Your Kids Day

National Commute With Your Baby Day

National Day of the Coral Reef (Colombia)

National DeFi (Decentralized Finance) Day

National Devon Day

National Johnny Day

National Kings of Prohibition Day

Ninjas vs. Krampus Day

Play Hookey Day

Roe Deer Day (French Republic)

Quito Day (Ecuador)

Tinsel Day

World Biomedical Engineering Day

World Soil Day

Food & Drink Celebrations

National Comfort Food Day

National Pigs in a Blanket Day (UK)

National Repeal Day

Sacher Torte Day

Swap a Christmas Cookie Recipe Day

World Turkish Coffee Day

1st Tuesday in December

World Trick Shot Day [1st Tuesday]

Feast Days

Abercius (Christian; Saint)

Bassus of Nice (Christian; Saint)

Clement of Alexandria (Episcopal Church)

Crispina (Christian; Saint)

Dalmatius of Pavia (Christian; Saint)

David Bomberg (Artology)

Faunalia (Honoring Faunus; Ancient Rome)

Faunalia Rustica (Pagan)

Festival of Faunalia (for Old Roman God Faunus)

Gerbold (Christian; Saint)

Ghidra and Mechaghidra Day (Church of the SubGenius; Saints)

Huyghens (Positivist; Saint)

Justinian of Ramsey Island (Christian; Saint)

Nicetius (a.k.a. Nizier; Christian; Saint)

Niels Stenson (Christian; Blessed)

St. Nicholas Eve [Belgium, Czech Republic, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, UK] (a.k.a. ... 

Avond (Leewvarden, West Friesland, Netherlands)

Bonhomme Noel (Celebration of “Goodman Christmas”)

Klausjagen (Switzerland)

Krampus

Krampusnacht (a.k.a. Krampuslauf; Austria)

Sinterklaas (The Netherlands)

Zwarte Piete (Black Peter, companion of St. Nicholas who keeps track of good/bad kids)

Nones of December (Ancient Rome)

Pelinus of Brindisi (Christian; Saint)

Remember the Spanish Inquisition Day (Pastafarian)

Sabbas the Sanctified (Christian; Saint)

Wes (Muppetism)

Lucky & Unlucky Days

Lucky Day (Philippines) [66 of 71]

Tomobiki (友引 Japan) [Good luck all day, except at noon.]

Premieres

Anne of Green Gables (TV Mini-Series; 1985)

Band on the Run (Album; 1973)

Beverly Hills Cop (Film; 1984)

Big and Little Wong Tin Bar (Film; 1962)

The Borrowers (Film; 1997)

Bucks for Boris or The Green Paper Caper (Rocky & Bullwinkle Cartoon, S3, Ep. 132; 1961)

Bye Bye Baby, by Mary Wells (Song; 1960)

Cadillac Records (Film; 2008)

Café Flesh (Adult Film; 1982)

Charade (Film; 1963)

Chef Donald (Disney Cartoon; 1941)

Come and Get It, by Badfinger (Song; 1969)

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Film; 2008)

Damaged, by Black Flag (Album; 1981)

Flash Gordon (Film; 1980)

The Garden of the Finzi-Continis, by Giorgio Bassani (Novel; 1962)

Good Will Hunting (Film; 1997)

Hop Skip and Junk or Bullwinkle’s Big Tow (Rocky & Bullwinkle Cartoon, S3, Ep. 131; 1961)

Juno (Film; 2007)

Let It Bleed, by The Rolling Stones (Album; 1969)

Love in the Time of Cholera, by Gabriel García Márquez (Novel; 1985)

Made in America, by The Blues Brothers (Album; 1980)

The Matchmaker, by Thornton Wilder (Broadway Play; 1954)

Ocean’s Eleven (Film; 2001)

The Pearl, by John Steinbeck (Novella; 1947)

Pioneer Days (Disney Cartoon; 1930)

Serpico (Film; 1973)

The Station Agent (Film; 2003)

Symphonie Fantastique, by Hector Berlioz (Symphony; 1830)

Tweet Dreams (WB LT Cartoon; 1959)

The Village Smithy (WB LT Cartoon; 1936)

Today’s Name Days

Anno, Gerald, Niels, Reinhard (Austria)

Sava, Silva, Silvana, Silviya, Stanislav (Bulgaria)

Krispina, Sabina, Slavka (Croatia)

Jitka (Czech Republic)

Sabina (Denmark)

Selma, Selme (Estonia)

Selma (Finland)

Gérald, Gérard (France)

Gerald, Niels, Reinhard (Germany)

Diogenes, Savas, Savvas (Greece)

Vilma (Hungary)

Giulio, Lucia (Italy)

Klaudija, Klaudijs, Sabīne, Sarma, Sarmīte (Latvia)

Eimintas, Geisvilė, Grafas, Gratas (Lithuania)

Ståle, Stine (Norway)

Anastazy, Gerald, Geraldyna, Kryspina, Krystyna, Pęcisława, Saba (Poland)

Anastasie, Nectarie, Sava (Romania)

Oto (Slovakia)

Anastasio, Elisa, Sabas (Spain)

Sven(Sweden)

Pandora, Sabas, Savas, Wallace, Wally, Walt, Walter (USA)

Today is Also…

Day of Year: Day 339 of 2024; 26 days remaining in the year

ISO: Day 2 of week 49 of 2023

Celtic Tree Calendar: Ruis (Elder) [Day 8 of 28]

Chinese: Month 10 (Gui-Hai), Day 23 (Ding-You)

Chinese Year of the: Rabbit 4721 (until February 10, 2024)

Hebrew: 22 Kislev 5784

Islamic: 22 Jumada I 1445

J Cal: 9 Zima; Twosday [9 of 30]

Julian: 22 November 2023

Moon: 46%: Waning Crescent

Positivist: 3 Bichat (13th Month) [Huyghens]

Runic Half Month: Is (Stasis) [Day 10 of 15]

Season: Autumn (Day 73 of 89)

Zodiac: Sagittarius (Day 14 of 30)

[mirai-desu]

Eurovision and Eurodance

There's been a lot questions lately about the Eurovision Song Contest thanks to a certain popular Eurodance meme (which btw, the chorus to that song is very similar to a Eurovision song:

"Flying the Flag" by Scooch (United Kingdom 2007 - 22nd Place)

Also simply know as Eurovison or ESC, it's a televised music competition held by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) members that began in 1956 to bring Europe together after WWII.

I want to stress that any genre of music can be a Eurovision song. As long has it has some lyrics. Not every entry is trying to be a meme and there's several songs you might know that you didn't know were Eurovision songs, ranging from "Volare" to Duncan Laurence's "Arcade' (which you might know as "loving you is a losing game" from TikTok). And also "Waterloo" by ABBA!

Eurodance at Eurovision

Up until 1999, Eurovision had a live orchestra, and most of the music was performed live. Arguably the first Eurodance song at ESC, "Ooo Aah… Just a Little Bit" had to a have computers on stage to have the "instruments" present:

"Ooh Aah… Just A Little Bit" by Gina G (United Kingdom 1996 - 8th place)

Thus, ESC was still mostly focused on pop that translated well with live instruments in the late '90s. And into the 2000s when backing tracks were required, the upbeat genre that ESC was more into was what I'd classify as "ethno bangers." Not that there isn't some crossover into what's traditionally referred to as "Eurodance" and many dance subgenres, but it was not quite the same thing, at least in my opinion. Your personal criteria may vary - I want to stress I'm not the authority on the minutiae of musical genres (and here's a post on Eurobeat vs. Eurodance btw).

Today, ESC still requires live lead vocals (and backing vocals had to live up until 2021), and being that the songs are performed live on TV, you'll hear some shakier vocals on my following examples… (although for anything from 2016 onward I didn't use the ESC performances due to geoblocking). Not to say that dance breaks haven't been popular in the last few years, and that choreography hasn't been heavy, especially with ethno bangers, but just that Eurodance hasn't always lended itself to having polished and flawless executions.

And of course, there are plenty of songs that I feel do fit the Eurodance category, including some performed by big names, such as:

"Follow My Heart" by Ich Troje feat. Real McCoy (Poland 2006 - Did not qualify for the final)

"Look Away" by Darude feat. Sebastian Rejman (Finland 2019 - DNQ)

"Vampires Are Alive" by DJ Bobo (Switzerland 2007 - DNQ)

"Glorious" by Cascada (Germany 2013 - 21st)

"Ne Ver Ne Boysia Ne Prosi" by t.A.T.u. (Russia 2003 - 3rd)

"Don't Play That Song Again" by Nicki French (United Kingdom 2000 - 16th)

A lot of ESC songs fall under the genre of schlager, as well as songs I'd classify as just EDM, and some with dubstep, especially as time has gone on. Many of the following songs to me are more a mix of genres than purely "Eurodance", but I think people seeking out similar songs will enjoy these:

"No Goodbyes" by Linda Wagenmakers (Netherlands 2000 - 13th)

"Sameyach" by PingPong (Israel 2000 - 22nd)

"No Dream Impossible" by Lindsay Dracass (United Kingdom 2001 - 15th)

"1 Life" by Xandee (Belgium 2004 - 22nd)

"Let Me Try" by Luminita Anghel & Sistem (Romania 2005 - 3rd)

"Tornerò" by Mihai Traistariu (Romania 2006 - 4th)

"This Is My Life" by Euroband (Iceland 2008 - 14th)

"Wolves of the Sea" by Pirates of the Sea (Latvia 2008 - 11th)

"DJ, Take Me Away" by Deep Zone & Balthazar (Bulgaria 2008 - DNQ)

"Lose Control" by Waldo's People (Finland 2009 - 25th)

"Run Away" by Sunstroke Project & Olia Tira (Moldova 2010 - 22nd; "Epic Sax Guy")

"Je Ne Sais Quoi" by Hera Björk (Iceland 2010 - 19th)

"Love Unlimited" by Sofi Marinova (Bulgaria 2012 - DNQ)

"It's My Life" by Cezar (Romania 2013 - 13th)

"Miracle" by Paula Seling & Ovi (Romania 2014 - 12th)

"Spirit in the Sky" by KEiiNO (Norway 2019 - 6th; Televote Winner; here's most of their performance in the grand final here if you are geoblocked)

"Halo" by LUM!X feat. Pia Maria (Austria 2022 - DNQ; co-written Gabry Ponte of Eiffel 65)

And two bonus videos:

Aqua's interval at Eurovision 2001

"I Love You" by Teflon Brothers x Pandora (Finnish Selection UMK - 2021)

And you might know two time champion Loreen, whose song this year is more pop to me than EDM or Eurodance, but it feels weird not to mention "Euphoria" (although I feel it's more straight up EDM, but again, mileage may vary):

"Euphoria" by Loreen (Sweden 2012 - Winner)

"Tattoo" by Loreen (Sweden 2023 - Winner)

While Eurovision does not equal Eurodance, there's still some fun jams, and again, many songs I included here that I feel straddle genres.

[flagwars]

Olympic Flag Wars: Round 1, Bracket 3

[six-paths-of-jeanmarco]

Eurovision 2004 vs 2005

Albania: The Image of You vs Tomorrow I Go Andorra: Jugarem a estimar-nos vs La mirada interior Austria: Du bist vs Y asi Belarus: My Galileo vs Love Me Tonight Belgium: 1 Life vs Le Grand soir Bosnia and Herzegovina: In the Disco vs Call Me Bulgaria: Lorraine Croatia: You Are the Only One vs Vukovi umiru sami Cyprus: Stronger Every Minute vs Ela Ela Denmark: Shame on You vs Talking to You Estonia: Tii vs Lets Get Loud Finland: Takes 2 to Tango vs Why France: À chaque pas vs Chacun pense à soi Germany: Can't Wait Until Tonight vs Run & Hide Greece: Shake It vs My Number One Hungary: Forogj, világ Iceland: Heaven vs If I Had Your Love Ireland: If My World Stopped Turning vs Love? Israel: Leha'amin vs HaSheket SheNish'ar Latvia: Dziesma par laimi vs The War Is Not Over Lithuania: What's Happened to Your Love vs Little by Little Malta: On Again... Off Again vs Angel Monaco: Notre planète vs Tout de moi (Europe had no right to treat them so badly in 2005) Moldova: Boonika bate toba Netherlands: Without You vs My Impossible Dream North Macedonia: Life vs Make My Day Norway: High vs In My Dreams Poland: Love Song vs Czarna dziewczyna Portugal: Foi magia vs Amar Romania: I Admit vs Let Me Try Russia: Believe Me vs Nobody Hurt No One Serbia and Montenegro: Lane moje vs Zauvijek moja Slovenia: Stay Forever vs Stop Spain: Para llenarme de ti vs Brujería Sweden: It Hurts vs Las Vegas Switzerland: Celebrate vs Cool Vibes Türkiye: For Real vs Rimi Rimi Ley Ukraine: Wild Dances vs Razom nas bahato United Kingdom: Hold On to Our Love vs Touch My Fire

2004: 16 vs 2005: 20

[mad-prophet-of-the-airwaves]

Top 20 new-to-me movies of 2022

1. The End of Evangelion (1997, Kazuya Tsurumaki/Hideaki Anno, Japan)

2. The Tin Drum (1979, Volker Schlöndorff, Germany)

3. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (2021, Dean Fleischer Camp, USA)

4. Little Miss Sunshine (2006, Jonathan Dayton/Valerie Faris, USA)

5. Beginners (2010, Mike Mills, USA)

6. I, Daniel Blake (2016, Ken Loach, UK)

7. Stalker (1979, Andrei Tarkovsky, Russia)

8. Bo Burnham: Inside (2021, Bo Burnham, USA)

9. Licorice Pizza (2021, Paul Thomas Anderson, USA)

10. The Mitchells vs. The Machines (2021, Mike Rianda, Hong Kong)

11. Daddy Longlegs (2009, Josh Safdie/Benny Safdie, USA)

12. The Worst Person in the World (2021, Joachim Trier, Norway)

13. The End of the Tour (2015, James Ponsoldt, USA)

14. Hollywood Shuffle (1987, Robert Townsend, USA)

15. The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales... (2017, Benjamin Renner/Patrick Imbert, France/Belgium)

16. The French Connection (1971, William Friedkin, USA)

17. Another Round (2020, Thomas Vinterberg, Denmark)

18. The Trial (1962, Orson Welles, France)

19. Exit Through the Gift Shop (2010, Banksy, UK)

20. Human Traffic (1999, Justin Kerrigan, UK/Ireland)

[heywoodsays]

FIFA World Cup 2022: Round of 16 Predictions

It’s been a different kind of World Cup so far — and that’s an understatement. While one always expects some upsets and some thrilling finishes, we’ve had more than our fair share of surprises and drama.

Africa had its best ever group stage with 7 wins. The warm climate of Qatar may be a factor. Two African teams have advanced this year; none advanced in Russia 4 years ago. Europe is less represented in this knockout stage than it was last time around. And while South America sent five teams to the knockout stages at the 2014 tournament in Brazil, only two have survived this time.

Favorites Brazil and Argentina are through, despite losses to Cameroon and Saudi Arabia respectively. Defending champions France also have a blemish on their record, but are through nonetheless. Regular contenders such as Spain, Portugal, the Netherlands, and England are also through.

But stalwarts like Germany, Belgium, and Uruguay could not manage to make it out of the group stage this year. Mexico failed to reach the knockout stages for the first time since 1978. Dark horse favorites Denmark couldn’t make an impact. Instead, surprise performances by Japan, Korea, and Morocco stole the show.

It’s truly a “world” tournament:

Europe - 8

South America - 2

Africa - 2

Asia - 2

CONCACAF - 1

Oceania - 1 (though they play in the Asian confederation)

Still, based on the matchups, I suspect the quarterfinals will end up looking as they normally do. Here’s how I think things will pan out…

🇳🇱 Netherlands vs. 🇺🇸 USA

History The Dutch and Americans have met five times, but never in a competitive match. Of the five friendlies, the Dutch have won four. But the U.S. won the most recent contest 4-3 in Amsterdam in 2015.

Qatar 2022 Neither of these teams have looked great so far. Despite going undefeated in the group stage, the Dutch have underperformed. They benefited from being in the easiest group and yet struggled against Ecuador. The Americans, on the other hand, fought their way through a group that included England and two other teams comparable to them in the FIFA world rankings. And while they demonstrated grit in their must-win match against Iran, they never quite managed to show enough quality to defeat a top-flight team.

But there are rumors about the flu making its way through the Dutch team. I don’t think this will be one of the more exciting matchups, but I fancy the Oranje to come away with a narrow win. The Netherlands is undefeated in their last 18 matches, winning 13 of them. The U.S. win against Iran is their only victory in their last 6 games. This U.S. team is still young and has very little World Cup experience. Such experience counts for something in the playoff rounds.

Prediction: 🇳🇱 NED 1 🇺🇸 USA 0

🇦🇷 Argentina vs. 🇦🇺 Australia

History These teams last played each other in a friendly 15 years ago. Australia has not defeated Argentina since 1988. In 7 contests, Argentina has 5W, 1D, 1L. This will be their first World Cup Finals meeting.

Qatar 2022 Kudos to the Socceroos for impressive wins over both Tunisia and dark horse favorites Denmark! They even came out strong in their opener against France, before finally bowing to them after a 4–1 thrashing.

I think that’s exactly what’s going to happen again against Argentina. While La Albiceleste revealed weaknesses in their stunning loss to Saudi Arabia, they showed their mettle in wins against Mexico and Poland. (The loss to the Saudis is their only defeat in their last 39 contests, dating back to 2019.) This team is now starting to click again and should be in top form to ward off any challenge from the pesky Aussies.

Prediction: 🇦🇷 ARG 3 🇦🇺 AUS 0

🇫🇷 France vs. 🇵🇱 Poland

History France has the historic edge in this contest, with 8W, 5D, 3L. Their only previous World Cup meeting was a thrilling third-place playoff in 1982 from which Poland emerged victorious, 3-2. But France has been the better team since then.

Qatar 2022 France’s B-team suffered a 1-0 loss to Tunisia, but have otherwise been perhaps the best squad of the tournament so far. Their midfield has been on point, and Mbappé has been shining. There were some questions about this team, given their Round of 16 exit from the Euros, and recent losses to Denmark and Croatia. But France have come to play and appear poised to make a good run at defending their title.

It’s hard to see Robert Lewandowski’s Poland overcoming the depth and skill of this French squad. While the French have shown vulnerabilities in their defense (they have conceded in each game), their offensive prowess is simply too much for Poland. Les Bleus should walk away with this one.

Prediction: 🇫🇷 FRA 2 🇵🇱 POL 0

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England vs. 🇸🇳 Senegal

History These two nations have never met in international football. But England has an impressive record against African competition — undefeated in all 20 games they’ve played against African nations. By contrast, Senegal have a 6-5-5 record against European teams, most recently losing to the Dutch in the group stage.

Qatar 2022 The Three Lions looks difficult to beat. If Rashford, Kane, and Saya are on their game, and a spritely Foden can make an impact coming off the bench, they should be able to score a healthy amount. But their goalless draw against the USA was a sign that this team could be stifled if faced with an opponent who wants it enough.

Senegal is Africa’s highest-ranked team, but with their star striker (Sadio Mané) out for the tournament, their path forward is a little more challenging. I’m not sure the energy from their exciting win over Ecuador will be enough to overpower or withstand one of the best squads England has sent to the World Cup in years.

Prediction: 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 ENG 3 🇸🇳 SEN 1

🇯🇵 Japan vs. 🇭🇷 Croatia

History Japan and Croatia have squared off three times before, with each team winning once and the other match in a draw. A 1997 match in Japan saw the home side victorious, but a 1998 World Cup meeting in France went to the Europeans. Their 2006 World Cup fixture in Germany ended goalless.

Qatar 2022 The Samurai Blue have been one of the most delightful surprises of this tournament. Their stunning upsets of both Spain and Germany en route to win their challenging group places them as one of the top teams of the tournament. But can their grit and determination be enough to push them past Luka Modrić and a skilled, scrappy Croatia team that were runners-up at the last World Cup?

Get ready for this to be one of the more exciting matches of the Round of 16. Both teams play with an urgency, especially when pushed. As soon as one team takes the lead, they’ll fight to tie it up. I might not usually expect Japan to put more than one into the Croatian net, but they’ve already done that against better teams. Sadly, I think their luck will run out against the more experienced Croatians.

Prediction: 🇯🇵 JPN 1 🇭🇷 CRO 1 (wins on penalties)

🇧🇷 Brazil vs. 🇰🇷 Korea Republic

History Brazil and South Korea have squared off in seven international matches, mostly friendlies. Korea has just one triumph, a 1-0 win in 1999. When the two teams faced off just six months ago, Brazil won 5-1. Neymar netted two in that game.

Qatar 2022 Like France and Portugal, Brazil rested their star players for their final group match and paid the price. But even Brazil’s reserves should have done better. A key issue for the team has been finishing. They need Neymar’s creativity to get their strikers in the best positions. There’s no reason the likes of Richarlison, Gabriel Jesus, Vini Jr., and Raphina shouldn’t be racking up goals.

The Koreans were able to best Portugal’s B-squad to secure their place in the Round of 16, knocking out Uruguay in the process. But other than that, their play has not provided much to suggest that they can beat The Seleção. It seems near impossible to score against Brazil’s top 11. They’ve recorded clean sheets in 22 of their last 32 games. In fact, they didn’t even surrender a shot on goal for the first two group stage matches. If Neymar is healthy, I think we should be prepared to see the Samba Kings break out at last.

Prediction: 🇧🇷 BRA 3 🇰🇷 KOR 0

🇲🇦 Morocco vs. 🇪🇸 Spain

History Spain and Morocco faced off in the group stages at the 2018 World Cup. That match ended in a 2-2 draw, with Spain netting an equalizer in the 90th minute. Their only two other meetings came in World Cup qualifying in 1961. Spain won both.

Qatar 2022 La Roja were the early stars of the tournament after their 7-0 thumping of Costa Rica. But a draw against a lackluster Germany and a loss to Japan have tempered expectations. Morocco, on the other hand, has been one of the most consistent teams at the tournament, even defeating the second-ranked Belgians.

But this is only Morocco’s second trip to the Round of 16, and first since 1986. This Spain team has valuable experience in high-stakes tournaments. They also have exciting young players like Gavi to bring a renewed energy as well. Looking at Spain’s pacing, control, and penchant for possession, it’s hard to see Morocco extending their brilliant run. But I wouldn’t count them out. This one could head to extra time or even penalties.

Prediction: 🇪🇸 ESP 3 🇲🇦 MAR 2

🇵🇹 Portugal vs. 🇨🇭 Switzerland

History One of two all-European battles in the Round of 16, there’s a lot of history between these two teams. The Swiss have a slight edge with 11W, 5D, 9L. The two have seen each other twice this year in the UEFA Nations League, with Portugal winning 4-0 in Lisbon and Switzerland winning 1-0 in Geneva.

Qatar 2022 Portugal joined France and Brazil as the only teams to secure their second-round berths after two games. They made several changes to their lineup against South Korea, ultimately costing them the match. But prior to that, the Portuguese looked strong — fighting off Ghana and controlling play against Uruguay.

Switzerland is much more comfortable with a slow, defensive style of play. They’re a team that ekes out 1-0 and 2-1 victories. (Their 3-2 win against Serbia was their first time scoring more than 2 goals in over a year.) But as Brazil was able to dictate the flow of their game against the Swiss, I suspect Portugal’s offense will do the same. But don’t count the Swiss out. They were still able to hold mighty Brazil to one goal, so Portugal will have their work cut out for them. I think Ronaldo and his team will prevail, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they had to go through extra time or penalties to do so.

Prediction: 🇵🇹 POR 2 🇨🇭 SUI 1

No upsets?

I realize that, in each case, I’ve predicted the favored team will win. While I really do think these are the most likely outcomes given how the teams have played so far and their histories, this is the World Cup, and there’s bound to be a surprise or two (or three). If an upset is to happen, here’s who I think is most likely to do it.

Most likely upsets

USA (16) over Netherlands (8)

Japan (24) over Croatia (12)

Morocco (22) over Spain (7)

Switzerland (15) over Portugal (9)

Senegal (18) over England (6)

Poland (26) over France (4)

Korea Rep (28) over Brazil (1)

Australia (38) over Argentina (3)