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navire190413 · 4 months ago

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so i finally decided to start (another) blog. when i was around 23 i had a pretty popular blog (?). i mean, i had 1,000 followers so it was kind of overwhelming for me at times. i wasn't really careful about revealing who i was or where i worked, which was dangerous, since i was a "museum professional" living in chicago. and there's only so many of those.... eventually a coworker found my blog and mentioned it to me. i deleted it the same night. this time though, i'll be more careful. for safety reasons, but also i signed an NDA at my job, so I need to be mindful of what i say. there's also only so many of my company's type in the heart of shibuya.

anyways, i guess i just wanted to start blogging again to connect with people who suffer from ocd and bipolar like i do. i also want to give people, if there's anyone who chooses to read this, a real look into what it's like living as a foreigner in japan. i can speak the language almost to a fluent degree, and work in a japanese company where i mostly do translation and data analysis (that's literally all i can say about my job). most of my friends are japanese, and my past time is going to a local bar where im close with the 店長 and bartenders. i feel like the only access people have to what it's like living in japan are through "japan influencers" on tiktok and instagram, who just introduce touristy places, and never speak japanese on their channel, so it's so hard to tell if they just hang out with foreigners all the time or not (nothing wrong with that, of course). but i worked really hard to integrate myself here and build connections here, so maybe my insight into living here will be helpful for anyone who's interested in learning japanese and moving here and escaping all the tiktok and instragram nonsense.

but im also a total メンヘラ (mentally unwell woman). so i feel like most of my posts going forward will be about mental illness and grappling with it daily. but thanks to japan's healthcare system i'm finally getting the help i need to kind of take control of it.

i'll do my best to stay anonymous, but if anyone i know sees this profile, they'll know it's me immediately from my photography lmfao.

i guess since it's my first blog post in 7 or so years, i'll do a short intro. i guess i'll go by navire this time. im 30 and have been living in japan for 2 years. a year and a half i spent studying japanese at a japanese language school (shout out to my parents for helping me paaaaaay for it). i started studying japanese in august 2019 and passed the jlpt n5 that december. remember when i said i was museum professional in chicago? i worked as a freelancer, so when covid hit i lost all my jobs. i couldn't find any jobs in my field, or any i qualified for regardless, so i lived off unemployment while job hunting and studying japanese for 8 hours a day. eventually the day came where i knew if i wanted to live in japan to improve my japanese, i needed a job. luckily back in my hometown, my parents run a contracting company. so i left chicago after living there for ten years and moved back home to start working as the company's owner's (my step dad) assistant. worked full time for the first time in my life and saved up to come to japan two years later. i studied everyday after work and for like 5 hours every saturday and sunday and made it into the top class of my japanese school, where i would stay until i found a job a year and a half later.

honestly, i think i just wanted to start a blog so i can talk about my self hahaha.

but seriously, im kind of a stubborn person, and a princess. so when i meet other foreigners living in japan who can't speak the language and i have to translate for them when we go out, i can't wrap my head around why they can't just study as much as i did and improve. but i honestly probably have my ocd to thank for my hard work. i was so obsessed with studying japanese, whenever i would hangout with my then-boyfriend i would have panic attacks because i wasn't studying or "being productive." i don't regret how far i got by being so hard-headed and hardworking, but i do regret that i missed out on a lot of good relationships because i was so hyper-focused on japanese. that guilt of missing out on relationships has followed me until now. once i got to japan and passed the jlpt n2 (the level you need for japanese companies to consider you), i was so focused on still improving my language skills and job-hunting that it became almost a full time job. and even though i made the most fulfilling relationships of my life here in tokyo, i was so obsessed with finding a job so that i wouldn't have to return home after my 2 years of school were up. it was so painful knowing there was no 100% chance i'd find a job, but i was still spending all this time job hunting when i could have been spending time with those important to me. a lot of people, despite their best efforts, never find a job in japan while attending language school and end up returning home despite everything. those stories rattled around in my head every single day. i would literally be sobbing while studying and applying to jobs because i couldn't see my friends while doing it, but the only reason i want to stay in japan is because of them, so i HAD to keep studying and HAD to keep job-hunting in case i managed to get lucky. lucky enough to secure a visa so i can make a life here with them.

somehow despite everything, including failing the highest level of the jlpt 2 times, a really good company hired me at a good (well... good in tokyo standards) salary. and the office is right in the middle of shibuya (a tokyoite's worst nightmare, kind of a dream for a foreigner to cross shibuya scramble twice a day). they wanted a native level japanese speaker, but they somehow thought my museum background and 2 years of assistant work at my parent's company was enough for the role. i've been working there for only 2 months now and it's great. my japanese isn't perfect, but i can do respectful business japanese and understand everything said to me, and everything i read, so i think it'll work out just fine from here on out. i even managed to get 8 certifications in my first 3 weeks, just because i'm so obsessed with studying. my coworkers even told me it took them all almost 2 months to learn everything and my reaction was, huh???? lmfao. living with ocd sucks, but i'm kind of glad my hyperfixations always end up landing on studying and reading.

okay i'm just ranting now.

i got diagnosed with ocd 2 years ago and started meds a year ago. i won't go into details about what happened, but one day i heard a cracking sound inside of my skull after i saw something that bothered me. a literal shock ran through me, and from that day forward, i had ocd. i remember the exact day and time. i was obsessed with the thing that i saw that bothered me for the next year. the obsession was so bad, it consumed me to the point i was performing compulsions during work and couldn't do anything else for 8 hours straight. just checking checking checking, asking for reassurance until i got scolded. it's noone's fault, these things just happen, right? i remember when my therapist told me i had ocd in our 2nd session. a blind woman, who was supposed to help me with my body image (which is why i started therapy in the first place. turns out my ocd obsession was tied to my body image). ironic the woman supposed to help me with my body image was blind, but i also kind of though, at the time, maybe it was perfect. nahhhhhhhh she was a terrible therapist and kept insisting i was gay because my ocd was wrapped up in how i felt about another person who was a girl. i am pan, but i was definitely not attracted to her hahahaha. i couldn't afford a psychiatrist because i didn't want to use my japanese fund, so i joined support groups and met online friends, but then i became obsessed with the fact i HAVE OCD. outside of that, my ocd is 100% human relationship focused. all of my compulsions up until recently are asking for reassurance, double checking sns posts, asking 1000 questions, obsessing over people i miss, doubting everything people say to me to an obsessive degree. which is why i was so obsessed with staying in japan. modern day japanese culture doesn't interest me. the historical stuff is interesting, but i could take it or leave it. i'm only here because i love speaking, reading, and writing japanese. and the people. mainly the people. what would i do if i had to leave all of the people i'm obsessively in love with? none of them know to what degree i think about them or check their insta stories; i've even managed to cover up how much i ask them for reassurance in super round-about ways using japanese. a few people have caught on and scold me when i do it, for my best interest i guess. my ocd has made me a master manipulator, and it's really hard some days, but i'm doing my best to take it a day at a time.

my next blogs will probably be about my daily life and not so much centered on who i am as a person, so i figured i'd get it all out now.

#blog #personal blog #life update #new blog #first post #new to tumblr #tokyo #tokyo japan #外国人 #ブログ #photgraphy #film photography #ocd #bipolar #mental illness #mental illness blog #everyday ocd

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beevean · 4 years ago

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SEGA and its most recent Sonamy side – more canon than ever

[Translator’s note: this article was originally written in Spanish by @latin-dr-robotnik]

Hello again! Today we’d like to discuss about something that’s been happening recently, and probably taking Sonic fans by surprise: what is going on with SEGA and its stance about Sonamy?

At the beginning of this year, to celebrate the 200 articles on Seaside Hill Paradise, I finished what I call “the Sonamy trilogy” of articles that I started in 2018 and which cover different themes, such as:

SEGA and the eternal issue of the Sonic-Amy dynamic

“I love you” – Forbidden words in Sonic

SEGA and the eternal issue of “Sonic’s girlfriend”

The idea was to offer a more-or-less complete analysis about the many facets of their dynamic in the last 27 years; a dynamic that, you may have noticed, is not that easy to pin down, and that we’ve been updating almost regularly (although I also intended to investigate on other dynamics, like Knuckles and Rouge’s for example, and write about them). Generally speaking, in these articles I don’t draw objective conclusions about the status of the ship in canon (despite the fact that the available information tends to confirm it in various occasions). I also like to repeat myself and say that shipping is supposed to be for fun, not for tearing each other’s hair in that black hole of misery that is Twitter, but recent events left us slightly perplexed, and this is why we’re here once again.

We left the status of the Sonamy canonicity with these two peculiar instances back in August: Sonic mentioning his “girlfriend” in the Japanese version of Sonic Battle, and the Twitter account of SEGA of Europe saying Sonamy is their “favorite videogame romance”. Now, let’s recap a bit…

Sonamy in Sonic IDW... Round 3

[SPOILERS ALERT FOR IDW SONIC #14-#35]

In 2018, when IDW just started, I decided to study a little how the Sonamy dynamic worked in this new universe. To our surprise, the comic didn’t waste time in dropping its biggest bomb, in one of the cutest scenes we had seen in ages. Since the very beginning, IDW proved that it didn’t intend to deceive those fans that looked for a bit of development of both characters.

I wrote an article about it in June 2019, and it coincided with the beginning of one of the most infamous arc I’ve seen in a Sonic comic for a long time: the Metal Virus Saga. The question is, what has happened since then?

Well, in 2019, with the same accuracy of an aimbot, I said “We’ll probably see some new interactions between Sonic and Amy sometime around IDW #20”. And wouldn’t you know, as misery and tragedy settled in that arc, it was exactly around IDW #20 that we saw some Sonamy interactions: both exhausted, to their limit, with a Sonic that couldn’t even touch Amy to soothe her pain, due to him being infected with the virus.

The arc developed like this in what felt like an eternity, to finally conclude in one the most absurd ways in Sonic history. But it wasn’t a complete disappointment, as, after months and months of asking and discussing on the internet about how much Sonic and Amy deserved a hug at the end of the arc… it actually happened.

Since that moment in IDW #32, we shippers thought that it was what both of them deserved after so much time spent separated and pushed to their limit to survive, but also that after the end of the arc everything would go back to normal. However, what we didn’t know was that the Sonamy train had no intention of stopping, not in IDW, nor anywhere else.

A recurring detail in IDW Sonic is that Amy’s tail starts wagging every time she sees Sonic, as if she was a happy dog. I swear, it happens every time.

Come IDW #35, once again we have some hugs and bits of dialogue between our hedgehogs. For sure, the question here isn’t their relationship itself, as it was for IDW #2, but rather the issues this arc is slowly dealing with. But it’s really nice to see them again, sharing that closeness that they’ve had in the comic since the beginning– be it with some gestures of affection, a wink, a gesture, a private joke.

My favorite image is the first one, Belle’s reaction to seeing Amy hugging Sonic. It’s like she’s thinking “oh, is she his girlfriend?”, and she wouldn’t even be wrong in thinking that.

It can’t be denied that IDW Sonic provided us the conversations and the emotions that the games seldom do. Certainly, the comic has its share of issues and it’s not really a story that I personally follow for its own merits (it’s more because it’s still Sonic, for my interest for things like this, and Belle’s existence… whom I already ship with Tails, sorry not sorry), but what it does well it does really well.

For now, we have to see how IDW Sonic will follow the development of the characters, especially in view of the closure of the current story and beyond. And we may be done with this part of the article, but there is still a lot left.

Sonamy in merchandise

Taking us completely by surprise, recently SEGA launched, in collaboration with Hot Topic, a series of Sonamy-themed t-shirts. No, seriously.

So many people told me this as soon as the voice spread (you know who you are, thank you guys for thinking about me <3), and I can’t help being still surprised that this is actually a thing. T-shirts with lines like “You’re my favorite”, “Love in the fast lane”, and my personal favorite, “S&A Forever”, with drawings of Classic Sonic and Amy… in SEGA-approved products. I don’t know if you realize how much of a big deal this is, even more than “Celebrate the 25 years of Sonic’s girlfriend” from 2018.

One of the things that surprised me the most (aside from how explicit they are in officializing the relationship, and the fact that there are still 2 months left before Valentine’s Day 2021), was the decision to use Classic Sonic and Classic Amy. I tried to understand this decision by analyzing the simplicity and easiness with which the Classic designs convey a message (let’s not forget that Classic Sonic was so iconic because it was specifically designed to convey his expressions without words), besides the fact that they’re inherently cuter than their modern designs. There’s also the controversial aspect of post-Adventure Sonamy, with all the dubbing and weird interpretations that the fandom made over the years… By comparison, the Classic design are a much simpler choice.

What is actually going on?

Well, let’s take a step back and think about what we just saw. The way SEGA has been recently trying to push Sonic and Amy in front view (and for the entirety of 2020, based on the articles I mentioned in the beginning) tells us the harsh truth we all have to accept sooner or later: Sonamy sells, and it sells a lot.

From a strictly business point of view, the ship is so iconic and popular, with fans and detractors alike, that it would be absurd for SEGA to ignore the chance to print these two characters and get a load of money. As I said in my 2018 article, despite the fact that in Japan Sonic isn’t as big of an icon as it is elsewhere, they know pretty well that Sonic + Amy = love, and they have huge amounts of merchandise to back it up. It’s in the West that because of different cultural values, of which we’ve already talked about, along with some internal resistance, left this aspect of the franchise a little on the side. But they’ve been trying to fix it… and how…

Let’s not forget that a decade and a half ago Sonic Team seriously favored Sonamy. They officially said it, Sonic X was their purest view of Sonic they had at the time.

Outside of the business perspective, I believe we’re facing the moment that we’ve been waiting for: it’s time they’ll establish once and for all the dynamic of these two characters, following more closely the original Japanese vision of Sonic. I said many times that, in trying to change canon, the West, especially SEGA of America, did nothing but confuse fans and generate more discussions than needed, by introducing different data and portrayals that contradict the canon established by Sonic Team.

We’ve talked about Unleashed and emotional support, about Sonic X, about the major moments that opened the door to interpreting this dynamic as something more. We don’t threaten at gunpoint those who would rather stay away, but we respond to those declarations that still try to violently discredit the simple fact that Sonic and Amy, who are most of all close friends, form in some measure a couple that, even with its imposed limitations, manages to captivate fans and not fans everywhere in the world. Even the Simpsons used it as a joke, and that says a lot.

What the future has in store for us.

Unless something else happens in this last month of 2020, this is the most complete compilation I can offer at the moment about the status of Sonamy in the fandom and in the official canon. Yes, canon.

It’s impossible to ignore the signals. As you may have noticed, I’ve been considering Sonic and Amy as an official couple, with its clarifications (for example, that at the end it’s more of a friendship, that it’s not a romantic relationship in the most explicit way, that it’s more of a personal perspective to justify a more mature vision of the relationship in the future, not right now), but nowadays I think that SEGA has spoken loud and clear. I think canon is ready to negotiate the idea that Sonic and Amy, apart from being excellent friends who would risk their lives for each other in a heartbeat, have something else on their hands (probably the other’s hand). This won’t automatically translate into a kiss, or a complete love declaration (although Sonic X came close…), or a commitment to a formal relationship like we know them in real life. SEGA canon affirms that Amy is “Sonic’s girlfriend” and nothing more. Outside of that detail, they still pretty much function as friends interacting with a little flirting here, and a little Sonic running away there. It’s the basis of their dynamic, now enhanced by the fact that SEGA is giving us a clearer message.

I think that this all may culminate in a game or an animated series, but I wouldn’t completely count on that. It is good to recognize how far the official position goes on this issue, but at the same time I want to reaffirm that there are things that are better left in the hands of the fandom, and in the meantime that IDW or any other continuity gives us hugs, winks, gestures and words of encouragement, we as the fandom will take care of exploring other avenues and hypothetical scenarios.

This is all I have to say on the matter for now, and I hope you’re happy with this wonderful Sonamy experience we’re going through – I certainly am. See you next time!

#sonic the hedgehog #sonamy #amy rose #translation #long post #whew #this one was a doozy #but super interesting #thanks again latin for writing these long ass sonamy posts

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duggardata · 4 years ago

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Jessa is Expecting Again!

She Also Suffered A Miscarriage Last Year.

On Thursday, February 18, 2021, Jessa (Duggar) + Ben Seewald shared (via E! Online) that they’re expecting a “rainbow baby”—thereby, announcing both an imminent arrival and a recent loss. So far, they haven’t revealed much data, at all... Read on for my attempt to analyze the few facts we do know!

When Did Jessa Miscarry?

According to the Seewalds, they suffered a miscarriage “last year”—i.e., 2020. Obviously, that’s not very specific...

Already, I’ve received multiple Asks speculating that Jessa might’ve miscarried in September, because of that Instagram Post where Spurgeon, Henry, and Ivy were wearing “Brother / Sister Bee” shirts. (At the time, many thought that the cutesy, matchy–match t–shirts would be used for a pregnancy announcement, especially after we discovered that the same company made a matching onsie saying “Baby Bee.” But, an announcement never came... Y’all’s theory is that the Seewalds planned to use the t–shirts for that announcement, but then lost the pregnancy.) It’s possible that this is the case; however, there’s no concrete proof, at this point. It’s just speculation. And, even if we knew that the t–shirts were intended to be used for a pregnancy announcement, their appearance on Instagram in September doesn’t tell us much about the Date of Loss. Was the photo from the day of the photo shoot, and Jessa posted it—not thinking we’d notice the matchy–match shirts? Did she miscarry before, and decide to dress the children in the shirts one day afterwards, randomly? Did she miscarry after, but before they publicly announced with photos featuring the shirts? We don’t know, at this point.

It’s definitely an interesting theory, though! Y’all have a good memory... I had totally forgotten about the “Brother / Sister Bee” shirt episode.

When is Jessa’s Due Date?

So far, the Seewalds haven’t actually said... They told E! Online (and TLC) they “can hardly wait to hold this little one in our arms this summer.” On Instagram, Jessa also mentioned that the baby is due in the “summertime.” Finally, and a bit more specifically, Jessa stated in a TLC–exclusive clip that she’s “out of the first trimester.” The 2nd Trimester begins in Week 13... So, from what Jessa + Ben have shared, we can confidently say that the Due Date is in Summer 2021 and Jessa is at least 13 Weeks Along.

Other than what they’ve said, we have one other clue, so far—the ultrasound / sonogram featured in the Pregnancy Announcement. And then, of course, we can always turn to the data for clues!

Let’s analyze all the clues, one at a time, starting with...

“Summer.” Seewald #4 is apparently due in “summertime,” “this summer”—i.e., Summer of 2021. As for when that is... It depends who you ask! Most of us, and meteorologists, would argue that “summer” encompasses all of June, July, and August, and that’s all. But astronomically–speaking, “summer” runs from the Summer Solstice (~June 21) to Autumnal Equinox (~September 22)—both of which are defined by the relative position of the Earth and Sun.

Which definition does Jessa use? I’d be tempted to just assume that, like the vast majority of people, she just means ‘June, July, or August.’ But, actually... Prior evidence suggests otherwise. When Jessa + Ben announced Pregnancy #3 (Ivy), Jessa said she was due “late this spring.” Eventually, they shared the exact Due Date—June 5, 2019. Astronomically, June 5th is ‘late spring,’ since it’s before the Summer Solstice; however, by the leading definition, June 5th is considered ‘early summer,’ since it is in June... So, maybe Jessa does use an astronomical definition, rather than just ‘June, July, and August.’

A Possible Due Date Range for ‘summer’ would be June 1—August 31, 2021, for most people; however, for astronomists, and maybe for Jessa, it would be June 21—September 22, 2021. Either way, this doesn’t narrow things down much.

“Out of The 1st Trimester.” On February 18, 2021, TLC released a video clip to accompany Jessa + Ben’s Pregnancy Announcement. In the video, about 5 Seconds in, Jessa says she’s relieved to be “out of the first trimester.” The 1st Trimester runs through Week 12. So, apparently, Jessa was at least 13 Weeks Along, when the video was filmed.

Since we don’t know when the video was filmed, all we say for sure is that she was at least 13 Weeks Along on February 18, 2021, when the video came out. Doing the math, Jessa’s Latest Possible Due Date is August 26, 2021. Sadly, this doesn’t rule out much the ‘summer’!

The Ultrasound. Jessa + Ben posed with a photo of a 3D ultrasound for this Pregnancy Announcement. This gives us a small hint!

Thanks to Google, Duggar Data discovered that there aren’t a lot of options in Northwest Arkansas, when it comes to getting a 3D ultrasound... Actually, it’s just two options—Babyface & More Ultrasound Studio in Rogers, AR; or Hello Baby! Ultrasound Studio in Fayetteville, AR. Jessa + Ben went to Babyface & More; the words “Babyface & More” appear on the top of the their ultrasound photo. (It’s fuzzy, but it’s there! Here’s a much clearer photo of a Babyface & More ultrasound, which isn’t Jessa’s, for reference.) (Note—Reference Photo was publicly posted on Instagram, with Babyface & More tagged. Identifying information has been removed, and the baby’s face has been obscured.) Per Babyface & More’s website, they offer 3D ultrasound starting in Week 14. So, we know that Jessa was at least 14 Weeks Along on the Ultrasound Date.

Okay... But, when was that? Well... Sleuthing regarding the Reference Photo reveals that the Ultrasound Date is listed in the top right of Babyface & More’s ultrasounds. (It’s not the Due Date, it’s the Ultrasound Date.) Looking back at Jessa’s... Unfortunately, the date in the top right is really, really blurry. Duggar Data thinks the middle number might be ‘25.’ That’s all I can say with any sort of confidence. I can’t make out the other two numbers, at all. Rats!

But, let’s just go with what we’ve got... Let’s assume that the middle number is ‘25.’ That could be January 25, December 25, November 25, etc. But, it’s almost certainly January 25, 2021. December 25 was Christmas; Babyface & More probably wasn’t open. As for November 25... That’s getting to be a bit too long ago. If Jessa was 14 Weeks Along on November 25, 2020, she’d be due by Late May, and that’s not “summer.” So... Let’s go with January 25th! Jessa would’ve been at least 14 Weeks Along on that date, which means that her Latest Possible Due Date would be July 26, 2021. We’re getting closer!

The Data. Ah yes, the data... My specialty! Here’s how far along Jessa was for public Pregnancy Announcements 1–3—

#1 / Spurgeon 86 Days Along (Due November 1, 2015.)

#2 / Henry 117 Days Along (Due February 2, 2017.)

#3 / Ivy 133 Days Along (Due June 5, 2019.)

Taking the average, it’s 112 Days Along. If that’s how far along Jessa was this time, her Due Date would be August 5, 2021. But you also may have noticed, she announces later and later, each time. It’s 24 Days later, on average. So... Let’s assume that with Pregnancy #4 she waited 24 Days Longer than she did with Ivy... That’d mean she announced at 157 Days Along and is due on June 21, 2021. The Seewalds will beat their record for Earliest or Latest Pregnancy Reveal if Jessa is due after September 1, 2021, or before July 15, 2021.

Looking at the Overall Duggar Family Data... If this Pregnancy Announcement was exactly–typically timed, then Jessa’s Due Date is August 23, 2021. They would set a new, family–wide record for Earliest or Latest Pregnancy Reveal if the Due Date is after September 26, 2021, or before May 17, 2021.

TL;DR. We really don’t know... Sometime this summer. Definitely by August 26. We need an Approximate Due Date, but we really don’t have enough data yet... I’m going to hold off on picking one, and on the rest of the data analysis, until we get more information.

I’ll keep y’all updated. Come on, Jessa! Give us some details!

#jessa and ben #pregnancy announcement #pregnancy loss #seewald 4 #due date

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blog-cosmosuniverse1 · 3 years ago

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Dr. Peter McCullough: The State of COVID Treatment

Story at-a-glance Cardiologist, internist and epidemiologist Dr. Peter McCullough discusses why a key aspect of care — early treatment — has been missing from the pandemic With no hope of early treatment, McCullough believes that most people became conditioned to wait for an injection COVID-19 injections are waning in effectiveness and linked to an unacceptable number of serious injuries and deaths McCullough is among a growing number of experts who believe COVID-19 injections are making the pandemic worse; indiscriminate vaccination is driving mutations, as the virus is mutating wildly to evade the injections At 53:40 in the video, you can view McCullough’s early treatment regimen, which initially includes a nutraceutical bundle, progressing to monoclonal antibody therapy, anti-infectives like HCQ or ivermectin, antibiotics, steroids and blood thinners

The video above,1 featuring cardiologist, internist and epidemiologist Dr. Peter McCullough, is packed with sound logic, data and action steps that have the potential to turn the pandemic around — if only more people would listen.Recorded at the Andrews University Village Church in Berrien Springs, Michigan, August 20, 2021, this presentation deserves to be heard, and I urge you to listen to it in its entirety. It will make you question why a key aspect of care — early treatment — has been missing from the pandemic.McCullough, editor of two medical journals who has published 650 peer-reviewed papers, said this has been the first time in his career when he saw medical providers not offering early treatment for a disease.Early COVID Treatment Saves Lives The standard of care for COVID-19 has been to withhold treatment until a person is sick enough to be hospitalized. It typically takes two to three weeks for someone with COVID-19 to get sick enough to be hospitalized, and during that time early treatment can be lifesaving.The rationale was that there have been no large, randomized trials conducted to know which treatments are safe and effective, but as McCullough said, "We can't wait for large randomized trials … Something got in the minds of doctors and nurses and everyone to not treat COVID-19. I couldn't stand it." He and colleagues worked feverishly to figure out a treatment — why didn't national health organizations do so also?"Our government and other governments, and the entire world, has not lifted a finger to reduce the risk of hospitalization and death anywhere," McCullough said, pointing out the irony: "If there was a kid with asthma, would we let the kid wheeze and choke for two weeks before the kid has to go to the hospital? No, we give the child medications. We don't have randomized trials for every single thing that we do."2 McCullough and colleagues realized that there are three major phases to COVID-19. It starts with virus replication, which then triggers inflammation, or a cytokine storm. This, in turn, leads to blood clotting. If enough micro blood clots form in the lungs, a person can't get enough oxygen and dies. It's a complex process, and no single drug is going to work to treat it, which is why McCullough uses a combination of drugs, as is done to treat HIV, staph and other infections.Only about 6% of doctors' decisions in cardiology are based on randomized trials. "Medicine is an art and a science, it takes judgment. What was happening is, I think out of global fear, no judgement was happening," McCullough said,3 referring to doctors' refusal to treat COVID-19 patients early on in the disease process.Doctors Threatened for Treating COVID-19 Around the world, the unthinkable is happening: Doctors are being threatened with loss of their license or even prison for trying to help their patients. French doctor Didier Raoult suggested, early on, putting up a tent to try to treat covid-19 patients. He was put on house arrest. He has promoted the use of hydroxychloroquine (HCQ), which initially was available over the counter — until France made it prescription only.4In Australia, if a doctor attempts to treat a COVID-19 patient with HCQ, they could be put in prison. "Since when does a doctor get put in prison to try to help a patient with a simple generic drug?" McCullough said. In South Africa, he added, a doctor was put in prison for prescribing ivermectin.In August 2020, McCullough's landmark paper "Pathophysiological Basis and Rationale for Early Outpatient Treatment of SARS-CoV-2 Infection" was published online in the American Journal of Medicine.5The follow-up paper is titled "Multifaceted Highly Targeted Sequential Multidrug Treatment of Early Ambulatory High-Risk SARS-CoV-2 Infection (COVID-19)" and was published in Reviews in Cardiovascular Medicine in December 2020.6 It became the basis for the home treatment guide.While some physician organizations have stepped up and are treating COVID-19 patients, "The ivory tower today still is not treating

patients. The party line in my health system is, do not treat a COVID-19 patient as an outpatient. Wait for them to get sick enough to be admitted. Because my health system … follows the National Institutes of Health or the Centers for Disease Control, period." Conditioned to Wait for an Injection With no hope of early treatment, McCullough believes that most people became conditioned to wait for an injection. "We became conditioned, after about May or so, to wear a mask, wait in isolation and be saved by the vaccine. And wait for the vaccine. And all we could hear about is the vaccine."The injections were developed, but they're different than any prior vaccines and have been losing effectiveness while causing an unacceptable number of serious injuries and deaths. For comparison, in 1976, a fast-tracked injection program against swine flu was halted after an estimated 25 to 32 deaths.7According to McCullough in the video, if a new drug comes on the market and five deaths occur, the standard is to issue a black box warning stating the medication may cause death. With 50 deaths, the product is pulled from the market, he says. Now consider this: The Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) database showed that — for all vaccines combined before 2020 — there were about 158 total deaths reported per year.By January 22, 2021, there were already 182 deaths reported for COVID-19 injections, with just 27.1 million people vaccinated. This was more than enough to reach the mortality signal of concern to stop the program, McCullough said."We've already crossed the line of concern January 22. And if there was a data safety monitoring board — I know, because I do this work — we would have had an emergency meeting and said, wait a minute, people are dying after the vaccine. We've got to figure out why."8It's standard to have an external critical event committee, an external data safety monitoring board and a human ethics committee for large clinical trials — such as the mass COVID-19 injection program, but these were not put into place."This is something we've never seen in human medicine — a new product introduced and just going full-steam ahead with no check on why people are dying after the vaccine," McCullough said. On two occasions, the CDC and FDA — in March and in June — reviewed the data and said none of the deaths are related to the vaccines. "I think this is malfeasance," he stated.Fast-forward to July 30, 2021, and VAERS data showed 12,366 Americans have died after a COVID0-19 injection.9 In an analysis of COVID-19 vaccine death reports from VAERS, researchers found that 86% of the time, nothing else could have caused the death, and it appears the vaccine was the cause.10The Spike Protein Is Dangerous Your body recognizes the spike protein in COVID-19 jabs as foreign, so it begins to manufacture antibodies to protect you against COVID-19, or so the theory goes. But there's a problem. The spike protein itself is dangerous and known to circulate in your body at least for weeks and more likely months11 — perhaps much longer — after the COVID jab.In your cells, the spike protein damages blood vessels and can lead to the development of blood clots.12 It can go into your brain, adrenal glands, ovaries, heart, skeletal muscles and nerves, causing inflammation, scarring and damage in organs over time. McCullough also believes that the spike protein is present in donated blood, and they've notified the Red Cross and the American Association of Blood Banking.Messenger RNA (mRNA) platforms have been under study for years, in most cases being designed to replace a defective gene, which could potentially be used for cancer or heart failure treatment, for example.In November 2020, however, Pfizer, in a joint venture with Germany-based BioNTech, announced that their mRNA-based injection was "more than 90% effective" in a Phase 3 trial.13 This does not mean that 90% of people who get injected will be protected from COVID-19, as it's based on relative risk reduction (RRR).The absolute

risk reduction (ARR) for the jab is less than 1%. "Although the RRR considers only participants who could benefit from the jab, the absolute risk reduction (ARR), which is the difference between attack rates with and without a jab, considers the whole population. ARRs tend to be ignored because they give a much less impressive effect size than RRRs," researchers wrote in The Lancet Microbe in April 2021.14McCullough believes the mass injection campaign is an incredible violation of human ethics, in part because no one should be pressured, coerced or threatened into using an investigational product.No attempts have been made to present or mitigate risks to the public, such as giving it only to people who really need it — not to low risk groups like children and young people and those who are naturally immune to COVID-19 due to prior infection. "I think this is the most disturbing thing," he said.The Injections Don't Stop COVID-19, Can Be Deadly The CDC's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR) posted online July 30, 2021, details an outbreak of COVID-19 that occurred in Barnstable County, Massachusetts — 74% of the cases occurred in fully vaccinated people.15Indiscriminate vaccination is driving mutations, as the virus is mutating wildly to evade the injections. Their effectiveness, too, is rapidly waning. A study published in medRxiv, using data from the Mayo Clinic Health System, revealed that during periods of Alpha and Delta variant prevalence, Moderna's injection was 76% effective while Pfizer's effectiveness was only 42%.16A little-known fact is that Moderna's jab has three times the dose of Pfizer's, but, curiously, health officials aren't even discussing this or giving the public updates on which of the three injections work "best." The narrative is simple and straightforward — get an injection, any injection.Yet, as McCullough noted, the virus has mutated, and the vaccines aren't working the way health officials had hoped: "The vaccines don't stop COVID-19, at least not completely, and they're not a shield against mortality."17Similar to VAERS, the U.K. maintains a "Yellow Card" reporting site to report adverse effects to vaccines and medications.18Tess Lawrie, whose company The Evidence-Based Medicine Consultancy has worked with the World Health Organization, analyzed U.K. Yellow Card data and concluded that there's more than enough evidence to pull the injections from the market because they're not safe for human use. The report stated:19"It is now apparent that these products in the blood stream are toxic to humans. An immediate halt to the vaccination programme is required whilst a full and independent safety analysis is undertaken to investigate the full extent of the harms, which the UK Yellow Card data suggest include thromboembolism, multisystem inflammatory disease, immune suppression, autoimmunity and anaphylaxis, as well as Antibody Dependent Enhancement (ADE)."Early Treatment Is Crucial McCullough is trying to get the word out about the importance of early treatment of COVID-19. Early ambulatory therapy with a sequenced-multidrug regimen is supported by available sources of evidence and has a positive benefit-to-risk profile to reduce the risk of hospitalization and death.At 53:40 in the video, you can view McCullough's early treatment regimen, which initially includes a nutraceutical bundle. While you're recovering at home, open your windows and get plenty of fresh air and ventilation in your home.If symptoms persist or worsen, he recommends calling your doctor and demanding monoclonal antibody therapy. The treatment progresses to include anti-infectives like HCQ or ivermectin, antibiotics, steroids and blood thinners.If your doctor refuses to treat COVID-19 in the early stages, find a new one and/or visit a telemedicine clinic that will help, as "the prehospital phase is the time of therapeutic opportunity."📷McCullough is among a growing number of experts who believe COVID-19 injections are making the pandemic worse. They "have an unfavorable

safety profile and are not clinically effective, thus they cannot be generally supported in clinical practice at this time."Logically, this is clear, but McCullough believes we're dealing with a mass psychosis that is preventing people from seeing the light. "The whole world is in a trance," he said, adding:20"Things are getting disturbingly out of control and it's in the context of the virus. It is clear … we are in a very special time in the history of mankind. Whatever is going on, it is the entire world … every human being in the world. It appears to have a program.The program … is happening to promote as much fear, isolation, suffering, hospitalization and death in order to get a needle in every arm, at all costs. That is what's going on, and no one in this room can disagree."

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westernchords · 4 years ago

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2020: a replay & reflection

so... here we are at the near end of a very long, unsettling & strange year. and at this particular moment in time, spotify has released its 2020 wrapped feature, an annual highlight for gay people everywhere (self VERY included). since the world is very large & this is a personal blog with a limited scope, i'll talk about what i know best: the view from my corner of the musical world.

i only had two songs in common with any previous year -- i wish i missed my ex by mahalia & sugar by brockhampton (... i know, the heartache is loud already,)

4 unique rain asmr audios made it into my top 15 (they help me sleep lolol)

show tunes was my #4 most listened to genre and yet not a single one made it into my top 100. (i'm pretty sure it was all of my late night waitress sing alongs)

i discovered 1,012 new artists and 162 new genres

all very fun and interesting things! however, in looking at this year, there are two things to discuss that are most important: the amount of time i spent listening to music (111,989 minutes) and my top song, fake mona lisa. let's discuss both.

on time: in short, music means a lot to me. in long, i mean that music has been central to my life for as long as i can remember. i think of my church choir and my mother singing eartha kitt and corrine bailey rae in the kitchen, my father's surprise talents at piano when he would play in chapel, and how i like to make up little ditties to sing for my dog or while i cook or to solely entertain myself. if one was to take a look at my journals, each entry is annotated with the song i was listening to or suited my mood at the time i was writing. at any moment, i am capable of revisiting the emotional landscape of old memories all set to the very soundtrack that holds that particular past closest.

i still remember plucking violin strings at 5, how i used to stack music books so i could sit up straight on my piano bench because i was too short at 7, picking up woodwinds in highschool and letting my best friend act as conductor, and now, singing endlessly- day in and day out, because it makes me feel like i am traveling home. i think of creole folk songs that connect me to my family, my diaspora. i remember the favorite songs and artists of people i don't know anymore, but still. it stays with me. my friend cj says i have a great emotional sensitivity to music, but more so, music simply connects to every cornerstone of who i am. the creation of it, the listening, the love of it. the constancy.

music is integral to my daily routine and life. since i was 13, maybe younger, i have always believed that the first song i hear in a day sets the tone so i always try to play something i love and makes me feel joyful to start off on the right foot. i will do this my entire life. every day is permeated by sound and the data shows it. 111,989 minutes is almost 3 months straight. this doesn't even count soundcloud listens or youtube tracks or music i play on my own. this felt fitting. music, this year in particular, has been a salve to both new and old hurt. and maybe i am picking at my scabs, but 2020 has amplified so much anger and shame and fear and despite that, there is so much joy in art. music is a balm for the world, it is poetry in its own right.

on fake mona lisa: so .. i am kind of obsessed with this song. fifteen hours worth of listening, i text my friends i'll join the video call soon - i just need one more replay, i got high and played this song while lying in the middle of a meadow and experienced more emotions than i had had in a very long time, my friends lovingly tease me about it so it's sort of like a character trait now, kind of obsessed. my turning to this song was the sort of romance that i didn't anticipate, but fell very hard into and, if you know me, you know that's my favorite kind. let's get into why: when dedicated side b came out, i was heartbroken. there's really no other way to put it. i was alone, back in my childhood bedroom, and harboring a reopened wound from past relationships that maybe had never closed in the first place. i was in this strange, melancholic knee-deep-in-emotions place & if you're an avid CRJ fan, you recognize that's a place she knows and sings about well.

as a song, fake mona lisa tends to be one of carly's more lyrically opaque tracks. which is fine, i'm a storyteller at heart, i'll craft my own narrative. (and honestly, there wasn't much legwork here.) without doing a full blown analysis, here are pieces that i find important to note about the song lyrically and resonate most with me -- big or small.

(transcription at bottom)

what i'm basically saying is that this song is about risk and young love and sex. its about secrets, cheap thrills, fast & easy desires, and the fantastical euphoria of a dead-end-but-still-fun “we're young so what's the matter,“ relationship. (very reminiscent of LA hallucinations, imo) and to me, someone who has been in and out of this same subset of emotional affairs, fake mona lisa stuck with me. vegas is a city of high risk, high reward- where else to chase that superficial, unattainable someone? more so, the song gives you the understanding that the relationship doesn't last, but that was not what carly ever truly wanted out of it. fake mona lisa is, at its core, about over indulgence in pleasure as a stand in for actual love + commitment, something i am oft to do myself & only did more of after dedicated side b dropped. i latched onto the slow and simmering exposition into glittery pre-chorus, starlit imagery, shiny-faraway vocals, and frankly, there was no competition for my song of the year. the song is a dream. i love it and i know what that says about me, but i stand by it.

dedicated side b, especially fake mona lisa, carried me through the healing process of heartbreaks that crystallized into many other things- indulgence, desire, risk, short lived romances, secrets, joy, kisses i should've kept to myself, spontaneous dance breaks, tears, etc., it is an album about love, recovery, and returning to the self. fake mona lisa is just my favorite stop on a long train ride to an okay-ness with aspects of romance (both with the self and others) that i am still figuring out the messy, rose-tinted, contours of.

and sonically? i just adore the key of d minor.

as a last touch point, fake mona lisa was only the tip of the iceberg of songs i obsessed over about not-exactly-ideal romances. again and again and again, heartbreak anthems appeared in my top 100, a deviation from my typical warmth towards romantic sentiments that appeared in past years. instead, there is a sense of love-at-a-distance, a painting yourself as the object of desire, a severed attachment, a not wanting to commit at all (see let's be friends, heartbeat, want you in my room, all by crj ... all appearing on the list.) however, much of what appeared celebrated love and having tremendous, special, struck by cupid, feelings. it's all there. what i'm saying is that carly rae jepsen writes music for lovestruck people- both lucky and not so much, hopeless or hopeful -- you name it. she writes about how you can fall in love with almost anyone, soundtracks for the highs of the first throes of intimacy, the first (and last) kiss, the shared moments between two people when they are each other's whole world, and the palpable distance of heartache, separation, and the landscape between.

she writes as though she is both eros and psyche, armed with arrows of cascading melodies, tipped with a salve for suppressing+healing+amplifying heartbreak, and lyrics so intimate and dreamy, you really can't help but believe in love with the way she speaks of it. love is a venture from shame, a fantasy that is more real than anything else, tender and kind, pleasurable, and escapable into. the world is better in it, the world is better because of it. in carly rae jepsen's discography, love is the defining pillar of experience. a northern star and guiding principle. it is the only thing, no matter what form. & frankly? i cant help but agree.

as a final note, in hanif wills-abdurraqib's emotion review for MTV, carly rae jepsen's public displays of affection, he says this:

thats all for now. bye 2020.

- august

///

transcription of my notes:

verse 1:

city/star light imagery

i am known for wearing a star stamp on my cheek

infatuation & attraction

paints a photo of a starlet and her lover, a fair weather affair

pre-chorus:

always waiting fro a chance the object of desire

a high from love, addictive pleasures

chorus:

sex & art & risk taking (art synonymous with beauty. + seduction)

she knows she cant handle this in a real way, but wants it

desire vs/& (in conjunction with) pain

verse 2:

an idealistic worldview, hoping for the best, always somewhere else not present.

dreamy lyrics + dreamy state of mind, cloudy even.

specifically the words fake mona lisa:

contrast, beautiful yet fully acknowledged to be unreal/superficial

a stand in for “real art“ aka “real love“

#crj #mine

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teenyfish · 4 years ago

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Marine Biology Story of the Day #14

So…it’s been a while.

I don’t know if anyone else is dealing with crippling anxiety, but I sure am right now. It’s just one of the joys of being a liberal scientist living deep in a rural red state. You literally can’t escape the Trump Fuckers down here, it’s everywhere you look. Hell, I can’t even sit in my living room without seeing our neighbors dumb flag flying on their flag pole or be forced to watch one of these weird boat parades that have been popping up everywhere lately.

I’m tired. I’m scared. But I’m also 100% over this shit.

So, instead, I’m trying to pour myself into my work. And I want to put quality content on this blog, and I’ve just been procrastinating on it for weeks because I want whatever I write, whatever I tell you about to be good enough for the reblogs, but tbh, that’s not the point of this. The point of this is teach people about the scientific process and how REAL research is done. It’s a ton of work, it’s usually monotonous, and there’s a lot of writing and editing involved.

That being said, I officially, after 3+ years of work, have my first manuscript accepted into a peer reviewed journal.

If you had asked me 4 years ago if I had thought I would ever be published. I would have said no. And that is because the place I was working for chipped away at my confidence so completely that I thought I wasn’t worthy of working in this field. Academia be like that sometimes.

But now I’ve started working for Texas Parks and Wildlife, which in most ways has been a dream (minus living in small town nowhere America, see complaints above). The organization is actually really awesome to work for and I have so much more leeway when it comes to designing my own projects and working on things that I actually WANT to work on. Not to mention, my boss is awesome and is super supportive.

So today, I think I’ll talk about a study that I just wrapped up lab and field work for in September. I’m currently working on the data analysis at the moment.

SOOOO TPWD developed a huge stock enhancement program back in the 1980’s when they noticed that the population of a popular game fish, red drum, was on the decline. Stock enhancement basically means they breed adult wild red drum, they allow the eggs to hatch and rear the larval fish to a size deemed big enough that they can release them into Texas estuaries to help bolster the population. Red drum stocks have actually improved since this this hatchery program was implemented.

Red drum are gorgeous charismatic predators, and they get the drum name from the sound they use to communicate. Check out the sound here.

Part of my job is to figure out how to make the hatchery program better through wet lab experimentation. Basically, the questions I try to answer are: How do we grow these fish faster, with least amount of mortality, and with the best, robust fish?

So, when I first got here, I found two issues with our red drum hatchery program. 1) Fingerlings (very young juvenile fish) are released at a very small size of 35 mm. INTO THE WILD. Now, the size of a fish is very directly tied to their mortality…larger fish experience less predation and have better metabolisms to deal with temperature and salinity changes, which leads us to the second problem 2) The hatchery program releases red drum at times opposite of when these juvenile fish would actually be present in the wild. Red drum spawn offshore in early winter, and the baby fish move into bays Dec-Mar…but we release OUR hatchery fingerlings Mar-Nov. The reason for this is because we don’t want the hatchery fish to compete with wild red drum, which makes sense, but we are introducing these fish to a wide range of temperatures and salinities. As you know, Texas is hot as fuck in the summer and salinity in some bay systems is classified as hypersaline lagoons, which is almost like pure brine (this is due to hot temps evaporating water from the bays and leaving salt behind).

Now fish, as “cold blooded” animals, don’t make their own heat, so their metabolism is controlled by environmental temperatures. All fish have an optimal temperature for growth, in which their growth rate is the highest, and then their growth and metabolism starts to decline toward their critical thermal maximum (CTM) in which their metabolism just starts shutting down and they die. This is why temperature is so important in fish biology, and larger fish typically have higher CTMs an therefore better survival.

(an example of how metabolism is impacted by temp. In this case, optimal temp is around 20 degrees Celsius, and CTM is around 23-25 degrees Celsius)

So how did I test this? Well, I chose body size and “Season” as my two variables—I chose Spring (May), Summer (August), and Autumn (November) to see how the temperature and salinity of our local bay system would impact fish growth. And, within each season, I tested both a small size class (35 mm and under) and a large size class (36 mm and over) to see how initial body size upon release would impact the fishes’ growth.

(diff b/w two size classes)

I ran these trials in my wet lab with sea water pumped in from our coastal bay system and I would adjust temperature daily to reflect the water temperatures recorded from the bay. I would receive hatchery fish that were ready for “release”, tag them, measure and weigh them, and then release them into their experimental tanks (if you want to learn more about how I tagged them, check out this post). I had one tank with small fish, and one tank with larger fish, because if they were mixed it’s likely that the big fish would cannibalize the smaller fish. The fish lived in these faux habitats for 21 days, and I would remove mortalities (dead fish) daily. They were fed 10% of their body weight to keep up with the estimated 0.1 g/day growth rate described in the literature.

At the end of each study, I removed all fish, measured and weighed them again, and read their tags. Once I knew what fish they were, I could match them up with their start weights and get an idea of their growth rate over the 21 days.

So, the data analysis is still a work in progress, and I’m going to run some more complex models, but here are some of my preliminary results.

First, here is our survival of fish for each trial. Like I said, fish did die before the end of the trial (young fish tend to do that), and this graph basically shows that overall, the larger size class had much better survival than small, especially during warmer months.

This figure basically shows the CHANGE in length (x axis) vs the CHANGE in weight (y axis) of the smaller size class (above) and the larger size class (below). I’ve scaled the figures so the axis have the exact same scale. The colors/shapes of the dots represent the “Season” of the trial (Autumn, Spring, or Summer). You can see that the large size classes had a much greater change in growth across all trials, and had the greatest growth during summer.

So this is just the beginning of data analysis, I want to do a more in depth look at temperature, size, and salinity in statistical modeling, but this is kind of the preliminary lay out of the data. Basically what I think this data is telling me is that we need to release fish at larger initial release sizes, because they have much better survival and growth compared to fish with smaller initial release sizes.

And the whole goal of the hatchery program is to make sure our fish survive in the wild.

If you want to take a peep at my accepted journal article, I’ll make sure to post a link when the article actually comes out online. The journal I submitted to (Marine and Coastal Fisheries) is an open access journal so everybody should be able to read it FO FREE. Next post I will be outlining another hatchery program study that I am excited to be working on in the near future (hint, it’s gonna involve flounder metamorphosis, which is a real bizarre process).

As always, if you have any questions, feel free to comment or contact me!

#marine biology #marine biologist story of the day #marine biologist #fisheries biologist #marine biology story of the day #ocean stories #red drum #stock enhancement #research #fish bioenergetics #fish growth

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xmxisxforxmaybe · 5 years ago

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Decryption_Error: “Darlene”

Summary: Amidst an unsettling arrest at CIStech, Elliot decides it’s time for Y/N to meet his sister, Darlene. He’s also ready to acknowledge his feelings, and afterward, Y/N takes it a step further to offer Elliot some more consistency in his life.

Story Summary, “The Server Room, Part I”, “The Server Room, Part II” “The Long Weekend, Part I”, “The Long Weekend, Part II”, “The Aftermath”, “Undecided”, **“Decided”, “Spooked”, **“Fourth of July, Part I”, *”Fourth of July, Part II”

Word Count: 7600

Tags: @sherlollydramoine @rami-malek-trash @teamwolf2411 @limabein @txmel @alottanothing @ouatlovr @backoftheroomandnotbelonging @moon-stars-soul @free-rami @ramimedley @hopplessdreamer @sweet-charmie

*Updated tags--If you want added or I’ve missed your request, let me know.

Warnings: Mild sexual content, mild description of a panic attack

“How could this have happened?” I asked more to myself than to Alison Shaye, head of HR, as I rubbed my temples and looked over the substantial brief one more time.

It was mid-August and the summer heat had reached a sweltering climax. It hadn’t rained since the day Elliot and I drove back from my parents’ house in Greenwich, and the city was collectively frustrated by the hot weather.

Everyone except Elliot and me—we had been wrapped up in one another, running our new daily program which now included seeing each other almost every night. Even though Elliot hadn’t yet returned my pronouncement of love, I could tell there was something different in the way he looked at me since that night on the floor of my closet.

As promised, I didn’t push. I never asked for more from him than he was willing to give. I still told Elliot how I felt when I felt it, and he answered me with a smile or with a head shake of disbelief.

And I let it be enough.

“He’s been selling our data for over two years—ever since he had to split the custody of his son with his ex-girlfriend,” stated Alison, yanking me back to the madness of my current situation.

“But it’s Colin. He’s an asshole, not a criminal.”

“Apparently he’s both,” Alison said in her colorless tone, showing for the first time I had ever seen, a less than professional impartiality.

“And the police were just sent this file? A neat little package of all that Colin’s been doing? This had to take months to put together—bank transactions, meeting dates, cell phone records, IP addresses, logins, everything.”

“So it seems. About a month ago, an attorney called to confirm Colin’s hire date, our company’s pay dates, and a few other simple employee identification questions. I didn’t think much of it because I assumed it had something to do with a custody suit. When I met with a detective last week for more thorough questioning, my confirmation of dates must have been the last thing they needed to make an arrest. Colin lawyered up, confessed, and took a deal. Didn’t even try to fight the allegations.”

“Damn,” I breathed, still in disbelief.

“Ms. Y/L/N? You need to head upstairs for your meeting.”

I stood up and thanked Alison. As she left, I steadied my nerves and gathered up my files. Since Precision Machining was our host company, its Board of Directors controlled us as well. Miles said I would occasionally be called in for meetings with them as the highest person at CIStech, but who knew my first meeting would be one about an employee caught committing insider trading?

I swiped my badge and rode the elevator to the second to last floor of our building. The vibe at the top is always different in any office building. Things are quiet, sterile, and there’s a general feeling of ill-ease, like no one wants to talk too loud or draw too much attention to what they are doing. Even the phones ring quietly on the top floor.

I checked in with the receptionist and she took me straight back to the board room. My father still retained his seat on the board, so I knew there would be at least one face in the room I could focus on as I faced the inquiry.

My eyes scanned the room and I couldn’t help but inwardly sigh at the sea of white, grizzled faces, only two women amongst them, and none of them with a welcoming expression.

I lifted my chin and walked quickly to the open seat at the end of the table, the chattering continuing as most of the members hadn’t noticed my entrance. Only when I was settled, my hands folded on the table and my breathing even, did I risk looking up to find my father’s face—his features etched into a mask of indifference until I locked eyes with him.

He was watching me, and when I met his gaze, his handsome face filled with concern.

“Oh—CIStech’s here,” the president of the board said when he noticed the addition of a body to the table.

The other board members grew quiet and turned in their highback, expensive leather chairs to face me. The table was steel, possibly something that had been done in one of the machining shops to add to the sterility of the room which contained nothing remarkable except for the window-lined walls that opened up to a glorious view of the city.

I looked around, making eye contact, knowing I had to project confidence. They were looking for someone to blame, and I was their best choice until I convinced them otherwise.

The president began the meeting by summarizing Colin’s offense. It was then that I learned Colin took a deal that sentenced him to six months in jail for securities fraud, plus a year and six months on probation. He defrauded Precision Machining of $450,000.

“I guess my question for Ms. Y/L/N, is how the hell did this happen?”

I explained my understanding of the police report, adding in relevant tech details. To finish, I added, “The truth of it is, Colin Greene used his position at CIStech to gather sensitive information he then sold on the dark web that resulted in his own financial gain.”

“How do we get that information back?”

Christ, I thought as I fought not to roll my eyes at the outdated question from someone who had no clue how the internet worked.

“There is no such thing as ‘getting back’ information once it’s been propagated online.”

“The more important question is,” spoke up the baldest, loudest man to my right, “how you stop this from happening again. Isn’t that what you do? Isn’t that what you have a whole company doing?”

“We work very hard to keep your information secure—”

“Damn good job, you did of it, too, tootsie,” spoke up an equally bald, but less loud board member who then shot my father a scathing glare before saying. “I don’t care that your dad’s sitting across from me. 450k is nothing, a drop in the bucket, but what happens when techs like you and yours get greedy?”

“Colin’s arrest has proven there are consequences for this sort of crime—”

“Yes, if someone outside of your company reports them.”

I looked at the woman who spoke up, her mouth set in a firm line, her eyes staring at me with an unrelenting gaze.

“I understand your frustration, but I assure you we prevent far more—”

“That’s supposed to reassure us? It’s not an exaggeration when I speak on behalf of the board to say that we see your charts, your data analysis, and we have, until now, assumed it all correlates to the near-perfect record of cybersecurity this company has maintained. But this event casts serious doubt on your ability to protect us against . . . ourselves.”

She had a point, and for the first time I faltered, looking down at the thick police report, realizing I did indeed fail to stop something dire from happening within the company. I glanced to my father and he gave me a small nod of encouragement, looking at me with eyes the exact shade of mine.

I took a deep breath and began again. I fielded questions for well over an hour, answering every concern and theoretical potential fix the board members threw at me until I had sated them. Though they were all wealthy, many of them far worse people than Colin and with even less regard for the stockholders they served, they were no different than anyone else who wanted to have their voice heard. They felt vulnerable, something people in their position had the luxury of rarely feeling. Their reactions were out of fear of that vulnerability, so I tried my best to alleviate it.

And this time, it worked.

“Thank you for your time, Ms. Y/L/N. We will expect an update on your aforementioned new protocols at next month’s board meeting. You did say you’d have data by then?

“Yes.”

“Thank you.”

I gathered my files and left the board room, only to be greeted by Miles who had been waiting to see me.

“How’d it go in there?”

“Well, appalling to start, but I think I brought them around.”

“We need to talk about Colin’s replacement.”

“Talk or tell?”

“Tell,” Miles said, walking me to the elevator, getting in, and selecting his floor.

We rode down the few floors in silence and I followed him past his secretary and into his office, a corner office with a perfect view—just what Miles had always wanted.

“Nice digs,” I said, smiling a little.

“Damn right.”

“This is going to be painful, isn’t it?”

“Certain individuals within the company feel it would be best to put someone of a particular pedigree and integrity in Colin’s office. They want to send the message that everyone is replaceable . . . with someone better.”

“Okay?”

“Ali Olayan.”

I snorted, surprised, but not actually. I moved to sit down in one of the comfortable chairs across from Miles’ desk and I crossed my legs before tossing my files onto the seat next to me. I rested my hands on top of my knees and looked up.

“And if I say no?”

“You can’t say no. Not if you want this company to continue to take you seriously as Y/N Y/L/N and not just as daddy’s little girl.”

“You remember what Ali did?”

Miles rolled his eyes before continuing, “You made the choice to get involved with Alderson knowing the possibility of a move like this. When we kept Corey and Ali, it would only be up or out for them. It was a 50/50 chance, Y/N. You bet the house, and you lost.”

I looked to the side to look out of Miles’ magnificent set of windows. For the first time, I wondered what it would be like to leave this world, to leave Wall Street and to never look back.

* * * * *

Elliot watched from the sofa as I stormed around my apartment, slamming the refrigerator door for the fifth time having not pulled a single thing out to eat or drink.

“I just can’t fucking believe this! How could I not have known Colin was selling off our data, fucking Martha Stewart insider trading horseshit right under my fucking nose!?”

I walked back the hall, turned around and came thumping back into the living room, circling the couch, ignoring Elliot’s alarmed expression. I slammed my hands on the counter and he jumped, finally tired of twisting to watch my movements, so he used the momentum to stand up.

Elliot was still dressed in his work clothes due to the forcefulness of my invitation to come home with me. Rarely, did we leave the office together, but I gave Elliot little choice today. Everyone on the floor, including JaLeah, watched with interest as I damn-near yanked him out of his chair and told him he was done for the day.

“Why—why are you so angry?” Elliot asked, his face filled with concern. “I thought you didn’t like Colin?”

I took a deep breath, glanced at Elliot, and decided to finally open a bottle of wine to take the edge off. I moved around the counter and fished out my corkscrew.

As I chose a bottle of wine from the little wire rack on my counter, I started to explain. “It’s not about Colin. Well, it is. But it’s more about who they want me to have replace him.”

“Oh,” Elliot said quietly.

“Yeah,” I said, sticking the screw into the cork of the wine bottle and twisting.

“Ali Olayan.”

“Oh,” Elliot said, his voice a lower and darker.

“And I wasn’t given a choice—it’s Ali . . . or me, essentially. Do you want any of this?” I asked as I reached for a wine glass.

“No.”

I pulled a single glass out of the cupboard and began to pour.

“If I comply and make it a smooth transition, I’ll keep the respect I’ve earned, the name I’ve made for myself. If I refuse, if I complicate this promotion, I may as well resign because everything I’ve worked for will be made into a mockery—daddy’s little girl, does exactly what she wants because she can. Because she’s so fucking privileged.”

I took a long drink and continued as Elliot’s eyes flicked between the counter and my face. “You should’ve seen the file this tipster compiled on Colin. It was a detective’s wet dream. Literally everything tracked, everything monitored, times, dates, transactions—everything. Whoever put it together is a fucking genius. Even better than you,” I said with an eyeroll and a snort into my glass as I took another drink.

Elliot looked at me, his eyes oddly focused this evening. Normally, if I was overly emotional, he was unsure how to proceed and kept as much distance as he could. But tonight—something was different. He was much more sure of himself.

“Maybe it needed to happen?” Elliot offered.

“What do you mean?”

“How much longer could he really have gotten away with it? You can bet he would’ve fucked up soon enough—it’s Colin, after all. And you’d be in this exact same position a month or two months from now. If—if it weren’t for me, would you go along with it without protest?”

I looked at Elliot for a long time and felt like I was being tested as his gaze remained fastened on mine.

“I don’t know,” I sighed.

“You’ve made it personal, Y/N. Well, I’ve made it personal.”

“I’m afraid of breaking your trust by not pushing back.”

“Is that the only reason why you want to push back? For me?”

“No—it’s, it’s not the right thing to do, to promote someone because of their connections, their wealth and status, it’s not the right thing to do. I got into tech because I wanted to protect people, people like my dad—good people, not just rich people—who pour their souls into their businesses. When people are that invested in their business, they’re going to be that invested in their employees.”

“Do you really believe that?”

“Yes,” I said with a conviction.

“You’re a good person,” Elliot said as he moved closer to me. “The best person I know.”

“That’s not saying a lot considering you know maybe five people, including me,” I teased.

Elliot laughed softly, his face set in a sweet smile.

“I guess you’re right.”

I turned to face him, my hand still resting on the stem of my glass as it sat on the counter.

“So what do I do now?”

“You play their game. You protect yourself, gain their trust, and bide your time until you can enact change.”

“That’s not what I want to hear.”

“But,” Elliot continued, moving so close he was now a breath away from me. “You’ll still be a good person. A good person caught in the machinations of corporate greed—you had to know something like this would happen if you stayed on Wall Street.”

I looked into Elliot’s face, his grey eyes filled with concern and also with a confidence I rarely saw—he was right and knew he was right.

“You’re right. Unless I just walk in and quit in a fiery rage,” I finished, remembering the feeling I had in Miles’ office as I looked out of the window.

“You’re not a quitter,” Elliot said, his hands coming to rest on my upper arms. “Places like that need people like you in positions of power. It’s all about balance.”

“I’m vastly outnumbered.”

“All the more reason to stay and fight.”

“Who are you tonight?” I asked with a huff of a laugh.

Elliot’s face turned serious and he gripped my arms a little tighter.

“What do you mean?”

“You’re just . . . so sure of yourself.”

Elliot shook his head.

“I’m sure of you,” he said before pressing his lips to mine, kissing me with purpose until I almost forgot the horrors of the day. I was enveloped by him, quickly lost in his citrusy scent that curled around me so totally that I nearly forgot I needed to ask him something important.

I broke the kiss, pulling away and causing Elliot to start stammering out an apology before I shushed him as I waved my hand.

“I almost forgot! Can you do something for me? Can you see if you can figure out who tipped off the police? I don’t have that kind of skill set.”

“Are you asking me to hack? I thought we lived by the rule of, ‘Don’t hack, ask?’” Elliot said, his lips twisted into the perfect curl of a grin again.

“I’m being serious—can you just see what you can find out? I don’t ever want to be blindsided like that again. Dad said the first time the board put Miles through the ringer, they had to call the meeting short so he could collect himself. I get why. It was brutal, and I never want to feel that unprepared again.”

“I can look into it,” Elliot said as his hands slid up my arms to rest on either side of my face, his thumbs settling on the outer corners of my mouth.

“Thanks, El,” I said before his lips were on mine and I let myself go, lost in that citrusy-grey darkness that was Elliot, the day’s events fading away until they were barely visible in my mind’s eye.

* * * * *

A few days after Colin’s arrest, I was sprawled out on Elliot’s bed, answering emails I hadn’t gotten to during the day. It was 8 pm when he walked into my office, the building long emptied, and told me it was time to quit. Once again, he was right, and he knew he was right, so we went back to his place for some takeout.

I had moved to his bed to stretch out after eating, loving the way I could just snuggle in and be surrounded by everything that was him. Elliot was in the kitchen finishing up the dishes when he asked, well, stated that he’d like me to meet his sister.

I stopped reading and stared at him, unsure if I heard him correctly.

“What? Are you sure?”

“It’s been over a month since I met your family. It’s time for you to meet mine.”

“If you’re sure?” I said, my heart picking up its pace a bit as I finally tossed my phone aside, officially quitting work for the day. I could always count on Elliot to provide a thorough distraction, on purpose or not.

Elliot laughed, “Are you nervous?”

“Yes!”

“Darlene is not someone to be nervous about meeting. Buy her dinner and her loyalty is yours,” Elliot said as he toweled off his hands and walked toward his bed.

“She’s not a stray cat! She’s your sister—the only person, well aside from Angela, that you really seem to give a shit about. What if she thinks I’m bad for you? That would be it. You’d be gone. And—”

“You’re babbling,” Elliot said, cutting me off as he crawled onto the bed, moving to sit beside me and to take my hand.

He lifted my palm to his lips and pressed a kiss there before continuing.

“This is not even in the same ballpark of the kind of daunting meet-the-parents plus the whole family thing that you did to me.”

“Fuck me,” I said, thunking my head against the wall.

“Alright,” Elliot said with a mischievous light in his eyes.

I narrowed my eyes at him.

“Not funny.”

“I seem to recall a girl who said something wildly inappropriate to me just as we pulled into her parents’ driveway.”

“That was funny.”

“No.”

You harrumphed and Elliot chuckled before pulling you close.

“I can’t keep you a secret forever. Don’t want to.”

“Adopting my lifestyle now? Elliot Alderson is climbing out of the shadows?”

“Fuck no—I still like my…mysterious persona. Keeps people at a safe distance.”

“Didn’t work on me.”

“No, you little weirdo. You were like a moth to a black flame.”

“I really was,” I said through a soft laugh. “I think I was half in love with you after the night I helped you prep for idiot Colin’s presentation.”

“And now you’re all the way in love with me?”

“For the thousandth, unrequited time, yes,” I said turning my head to smile at him.

“It’s not,” Elliot said, his face growing serious, my own smile faltering as I looked at him in the dim lighting of his apartment.

“What?” I whispered, my voice sounding like it was a million miles away.

“It’s not…unrequited. I—I love you,” Elliot said, his eyes suddenly finding a spot to look at on the bookshelf next to me.

“I love you, too,” I said, my face stretching into the biggest smile it had ever achieved.

Elliot took a deep breath and his eyes flicked to me now that the danger had passed, relief settling over not just his face, but his entire body.

“Check something for me?”

I furrowed my brow and slowly said, “Okay. . .”

“Check outside and see if hell’s frozen over.”

I laughed and launched myself into his arms, half sitting on his lap.

I pulled back from my hug to search his face, my thumb resting on his cheek as I cupped his jaw.

“Hell doesn’t freeze over when you tell someone you love them.”

“I feel a little sick,” he said, smiling shyly up at me.

“That feeling in the pit of your stomach,” I began as I touched him there, “like everything is just too much, like you’ve just gotten out of a bathtub after having your skin scrubbed raw, that vulnerability. That’s love.”

“I’m not sure if that’s poetic or if that’s even supposed to make me feel better, but it’s pretty fucking accurate.”

“I’ve been feeling it longer, so I’m the expert.”

“You haven’t—I just haven’t been able to tell you until now.”

We looked at each other for a long, long moment and I knew he meant it. Elliot loved me. I moved all the way into his lap and straddled him.

“I want you so much, El,” I breathed. “All of you. All the time.”

“I’ll always give you as much of myself as I can—promise,” Elliot said as he closed his eyes and let me kiss him.

The kiss was as slow and as sensual as our sex; we undressed each other, took turns kissing one another from head to toe. By the time Elliot slid into my aching, wet heat, I was near tears, overwhelmed by the intensity of our now shared, raw emotion.

We came, successively breathing one another’s names over and over, and I was sure that life couldn’t get any better than this.

* * * * *

Darlene Alderson may have physically resembled her brother, beautiful face with big eyes that made me feel exposed as they traveled over my face, but that’s where their similarities ended. She was outspoken, crass, and owned any room she was in. She projected a confidence I only rarely saw in Elliot, and she also seemed to speak each thought as it popped into her mind, very unlike her brother’s labored communications.

The plan was to meet at Elliot’s apartment to watch movies and order a pizza; I asked if we should go out somewhere nice and he outright laughed.

“Darlene doesn’t really do . . . nice.”

“Everyone likes a little nice.”

“Not my sister,” he said with a hint of annoyance.

I thought he was wrong, but then again, Elliot had been right about a whole lot of things lately.

Despite asking Elliot to look into the people who hacked Colin, he hadn’t been able to find anything. I was surprised, but I knew if anyone could find something, it was him. Since he hadn’t, it made me more nervous because so far, we were the vigilante’s only target. Insider trading wasn’t something rare—if the hacker’s goal wasn’t exposure, what exactly was it?

My anxiety had been worsening since Colin’s arrest and resulted in my first full-blown panic attack in months. I woke up, sweating, certain death was imminent as my heart hammered so hard I could feel it pounding when I held a hand to my chest. I was relieved Elliot hadn’t spent the night. I didn’t want him to see how much all of this stress was affecting me.

But thankfully, Elliot continued to provide ample distraction and waiting to meet his sister made me a different kind of nervous, one that forced me to put Colin out of my mind, again.

I roamed around Elliot’s apartment, straightening things that didn’t need straightened. I had made the bed twice and was now giving it another weary eye.

“Please let me buy you a bed.”

“I can buy a bed if I want to.”

I growled and left Elliot to fuck around on his computer, not really looking at what he was doing. He usually wasn’t on it when we were together, but he said he had something to finish before Darlene got there.

“Stop . . . fusspotting,” he mumbled without turning around and without missing a keystroke.

I stopped in my tracks and marched to stand behind Elliot’s computer chair.

“That’s what my nanny always said! She called me her little fusspot.”

“I know,” Elliot chuckled as he swiveled his chair around. “Your mom told me that. She said you’ve always been a nervous person, even as a child. And, it’s selfish, but I like it when you’re outwardly nervous—makes me feel more normal.”

Elliot scooted forward and ran his hands up my thighs, pulling me close to hug me, his head resting on my stomach as his hands cupped my ass.

I narrowed my eyes as I looked at what he was doing on the computer. It looked like he was creating a virus—

Elliot pulled open the button of my jeans with his teeth and successfully diverted my attention.

“Elliot! Your sister will be here any minute.”

“I’ll lock the door,” he said in a muffle as he started licking at the skin he had just exposed.

But it was too late for that.

The door to Elliot’s apartment flung open and Darlene came in, causing me to jump back from him so quickly I tripped and fell onto the mattress, causing Elliot to then tumble out of his computer chair.

I quickly rebuttoned my jeans and prayed to god for the mattress to open up and swallow me.

“Ew,” Darlene said, staring at the two of us.

Elliot rolled over onto his back, his sides shaking with a silent laugh until I kicked his shoulder and rolled off the bed.

I knew my cheeks were red, so I took a deep breath and gathered what respect I had left for myself and walked over to Darlene.

“Hi—sorry about that. Your brother’s a complete dick.”

Darlene grinned, and I was struck by how much she looked like Elliot when she smiled.

“Finally! Someone else gets it. I’m Darlene,” she said with a wave as she dumped her bag on Elliot’s table.

“Y/N,” you said with your own wave and embarrassed smile.

“I think you dislocated my shoulder,” Elliot said from his spot on the floor as he watched us both turn to look at him.

“Good,” Darlene and I said at the same time before looking at each other and laughing.

“Fuck. I’ve made a terrible mistake,” Elliot mumbled as he pulled himself up and back into his chair.

“Did you fix my virus?” Darlene asked as she moved past me to stand beside Elliot’s chair.

Elliot turned to look at her, clearly telling her to shut the fuck up with his eyes, but I spoke up.

“I can see it’s a virus. And you only popped the button of my jeans to distract me from looking at it.”

They both turned to look at me, twin expressions of incredulity, waiting to see what I would say next.

I crossed my arms and waited—I knew how to wait Elliot out.

“Darlene writes viruses and sells them to companies that make antivirus software.”

I raised my eyebrow, “Interesting niche.”

Darlene grinned, “We can’t all be corporate sellouts like you two.”

“Darlene,” Elliot warned.

“It’s a joke, douche,” Darlene huffed as she plopped on the bed.

“I knew this job would make you uptight—no offense, Y/N. I mean, someone’s gotta do it. Just never thought it would be my brother.”

“Do you . . . want a job? We could always use another tech.”

“No,” Elliot said, a look of horror washing over his face.

Darlene laughed and lifted her head to turn her eyes to me.

“So, you could just do that? Snap your fingers and get me a j-o-b?”

“You’re Elliot’s sister, his family. I’d do anything to help you—if you wanted it,” I added hastily.

Elliot and Darlene looked at each other, and Darlene laughed, laughed so hard a tear squeezed out from the corner of her eye.

“Elliot told me you were, like a good person or whatever, but shit. I don’t think anyone who hasn’t wanted to fuck me has ever offered to do anything that nice for me. Wait--you’re not into freaky siblin--”

“Darlene!” Elliot yelled, the vein in his neck popping.

Darlene raised her arms in a gesture of surrender and said, “Excuuuse me.”

I watched their exchange with a smirk of understanding. I did have three siblings of my own.

“Jobs aren’t exactly a scarce commodity for techs on Wall Street,” I said, crossing my arms and drawing their attention back to me.

“Just something to think about if you ever want some stability,” I added as Darlene continued to look at me like I was an alien.

“Elliot says you’re rich—”

“Fucking shut up, Darlene!” Elliot groaned, twisting his hands in his hair and standing.

“My father is rich, so yeah. I’ve never gone without,” I said with a slight head shake at Elliot’s distress.

“I’m so sorry about her,” Elliot said taking a step toward me while still glaring at Darlene who only rolled her eyes.

I chuckled, “It’s fine, El. She’s curious and clearly doesn’t beat around the bush—unlike you.”

“Ha!” Darlene said, raising her middle finger at her brother’s back.

This was . . . interesting, I thought. Not at all how I thought it was going to go, but there was something refreshing about Darlene, something childish in the same way there was something childish about Elliot—only on opposite ends of the spectrum. She had a child’s impetuousness, while Elliot had a child’s reservation. I wondered for the millionth time just what it was like growing up for the two of them because I had a feeling it was, at best, difficult. Most people shed those traits with maturity, and it was odd neither Elliot nor Darlene ever did.

I did enjoy Darlene’s assertiveness, even though I was certain it had gotten her in trouble over the years, but that’s what big brothers were for, right?

“Anything else you wanna know?” I asked as I sat on the edge of Elliot’s mattress.

“Since you both have fancy ass jobs for a fancy ass corporation, why the hell are we eating pizza in Elliot’s shithole apartment?”

“I told you,” I said looking at Elliot with a smirk.

Elliot sunk into his chair, sighing heavily before he popped the CD from his computer and tossed it to Darlene.

“Let’s go out,” I suggested. “Elliot and I had this debate before you got here, and I’m happy to say that he just lost because I was right.”

“Elliot needs a good check. He’s not always right,” Darlene said, glancing at him and giving him a smirk.

Elliot just looked at Darlene and shook his head.

“So, dinner in Midtown? Do you like seafood?”

“Fuck yeah.”

“I’ll make a phone call,” I said smiling, enjoying using my privilege to impress Darlene.

I wanted her to like me; she was the only family Elliot really had, and she could be a good ally if he ever needed more than just I could give him.

“El? Do you feel like going out?”

“Does it matter?”

I looked at him and wondered if our teasing really had bothered him.

“Of course it does,” I said with a soft tone as Darlene looked between us, watching our exchange with interest.

Elliot’s eyes ran over my face, and his lips gave me a ghost of a smile.

“I guess even Darlene likes a little nice.”

“Told you,” I said before I went to retrieve my cellphone.

As I made reservations, I could hear the quiet mumble of Elliot’s voice in the background and Darlene’s much less quiet answers. When I hung up with the restaurant, I ordered an Uber.

“Uber will be here in 15 minutes. Should give us plenty of time to make our reservation.”

Both Elliot and Darlene looked up at me, that twin expression again which was starting to unnerve me a bit. Getting up from the bed, Darlene took the CD Elliot gave her and shoved it in her bag. She pulled out her phone and checked it, her thumbs moving quickly as she answered a text or an email.

Elliot turned off his computer before turning his attention to me.

“Thanks for doing this,” he said quietly as he put his hands on my waist.

“I want her to like me,” I said into his ear as I hugged him quickly.

“She does,” he whispered back, pressing a barely-there kiss to my temple.

* * * * *

Dinner was fun and easier than when it was just Elliot and I sometimes. It wasn’t that I didn’t enjoy quiet nights with Elliot; it was that, given what happened with Colin this week, I greatly appreciated the distraction. It was nice to get lost in Darlene’s stories, and as it turned out, there wasn’t much she wasn’t willing to share, talking almost nonstop about everything from her love life to her and Elliot’s childhood.

Elliot listened, but I could tell he wasn’t truly present. There was something about his sister that seemed to make him retreat further into himself. I wasn’t sure if it had something to do with me or if it was something to do with their childhood. After the Fourth of July, I hadn’t pressed Elliot. He seemed to be in such a good place that I didn’t want to open up a door he clearly needed to keep closed.

“Do you remember that, El?” Darlene asked.

“Hmm?” Elliot questioned, clearly not listening.

“That first time we went to the museum in Queens with Angela? The place you always ran away to?”

Elliot gave a half-convincing nod.

“Anyway, it has this really cool model of the entire city. You should check it out.”

“I’ve lived here forever and never knew it was there. I love finding spots in the city I’ve never visited.”

“We should go—all of us,” Darlene suggested, looking at her brother.

Elliot didn’t answer, which seemed to be something Darlene was used to. She gave him time, but when it became clear that was as far as she was getting, I spoke up.

“Are you busy Saturday morning-ish?”

“I keep my life pretty open to my whims,” Darlene said as she chewed her roll.

“I need to find a dress for this dinner thing next week. Do you want to come shopping with me? I could use a second opinion—and lunch would be my treat for putting up with my indecisiveness.”

“Sure,” Darlene said with a grin. “Let me get your number.”

She opened her phone and quickly created a new contact for me to enter my number. Elliot watched us with a little more interest now that Darlene wasn’t talking about their childhood.

By the end of the night, I felt like Darlene and I were on our way to becoming friends. When the Uber took us back to Elliot’s, I let them go back to his place alone to have some time, probably to talk about me.

Elliot gave me a look and a wave as he shut the door, and I could hear Darlene chastising him for not kissing me goodnight. I waved and shook my head, giving the driver my apartment’s address.

* * * * *

As it turned out, shopping with Darlene was fun. While I tended to err on the side of being reserved and polite, she was to the point, and I ended up finding a dress more quickly than usual thanks to her frank opinion.

We had lots of time before lunch to wonder through a few more boutiques and Darlene stopped to try on some sunglasses. She looked particularly cute in a pair of heart-shaped ones, and I offered to buy them for her as a thank you.

She accepted with a shrug of her shoulders and a grin, once again the complete opposite of her brother, which I told her.

“I know, right? Elliot said I get it from dad. He was never afraid to say what was on his mind.”

“Does he talk about your dad to you? Or your mom?”

“Not if he can help it. We had a pretty shit childhood. Dad died when I was 5, so I have trouble remembering him. It hurt Elliot—they were best friends. I think my mom was always kinda jealous of that and really took it out on him. Which is really funny because it only made us hate her more.”

“Is she still living?”

“Yup. But she’s in assisted living. Fuck if either one of us was going to take care of her when she started getting sick. When Elliot left for college, I counted down the days until I could get the fuck out of that house. Without him, it was depressing as shit.”

“So you two are really close?”

Darlene gave me a measured look before replying, “How long have you known Elliot?”

“Mmm, almost a year.”

“But, like, you haven’t been close until, what, like a few months ago?”

“We were pretty close at work from the start. I was one of the only people he talked to.”

“But you didn’t really hang out a lot?”

“No.”

“And, since you got close, nothing strange has happened?”

I stopped walking and turned to face Darlene.

“Strange as in . . . occasional memory loss?”

“Yes!” Darlene said, her face filling with relief. “I was fishing because I didn’t want to—you know, Elliot is the best person I know. I would do anything for him, anything to protect him the same way he’s always protected me.”

“I understand. There’s something about him that makes you want to give him a really big hug and tell him the world isn’t as shitty as he thinks it is.

“But fuck if he’ll let anyone. I mean, you’re the only real girlfriend besides Angela he’s ever had. And they had some sort of friends with benefits thing going on—she’s her own basket of freshly baked fucked up.”

I laughed, “What the hell did they put in the water where you’re from?”

Darlene chuckled and shrugged her shoulders.

“Anyway. Elliot’s had those weird blackouts since we were kids. I’m convinced it has something to do with keeping people at a distance, at least that was what it always seemed to be with us. But that shit works on your nerves and for a while Elliot and I just didn’t talk. I mean, we kept tabs on each other, but we didn’t see each other.”

“Well, I think you’re good for him. He needs people who care about him actively in his life. Being alone like he was—that’s not good for anyone.”

Darlene smiled.

“I’m glad he has you—not just because you’re rich, but you seem cool.”

“Thanks, but no worries. I come with my own, how did you put it? Basket of fresh-baked fucked up?” I asked through a laugh.

“That was a good description, huh?”

“It was. So, maybe you can help me figure out how I’m going to tell Elliot I’ve rented him a tux and he has to attend this event with me?”

Darlene threw her head back and laughed, clearly loving that her brother had just been sentenced to a night of boring horror, and we linked arms as we walked to a café around the corner for lunch, grinning as we guessed at his response.

* * * * *

I hung my new dress on the back of my closet door, making a mental note to go through my shoes to see what matched and to remember to tell Elliot he had plans on Wednesday night.

Spending the day with Darlene had been fun, but exhausting. Getting to know people was hard work, especially people as complex as the Aldersons.

Elliot had said he wanted to come over, so I left my door unlocked while I ran a bath, loading up on the bubbles.

As I watched the tub fill up, I thought that maybe I should give Elliot a key to my place. Elliot Alderson most likely wasn’t about to break up with the person he finally got the courage to tell he loved, so the gesture might be another nice piece of consistency for him (and for me).

I stepped out of my underwear and slid into the tub, luxuriating in the warmth and the sweet scent of coconuts. I had almost fallen asleep when there was a soft knock on my door before Elliot pushed his way into the bathroom.

He gave me a soft smile and took a seat on the edge of the tub.

“So you do use this thing?”

“Everyone loves a good soak in the tub.”

I paused, then seductively asked, “Want to join me?”

“No,” Elliot said flatly, making me laugh. He was such an atypical man that it was refreshing at times.

“That’s okay—I’m wiped. Your sister is exhausting. She has more energy than a child.”

Elliot nodded, his eyes incredibly focused on my face.

“I like her, though. I want to spend more time with her.”

“I’m glad,” Elliot said with relief. “I wasn’t sure if she’d be too much for you. She’s too much for me sometimes.”

“She loves you, El. So much. It’s sweet.”

“How do you know?”

“Well, a) she’s your sister,” I said, sitting up a bit and shaking off my sleep. “And b) she said you were the best person she’s ever known. I’d say that means she loves you.”

“I really don’t deserve that. I’ve done some shitty things to her.”

“Haven’t we all? I mean, to our siblings. Erin told you all about the epic chip battle of 1996.”

Elliot snorted, “I hardly think that counts.”

“I was being funny. We weren’t about to rehash the time she fucked my prom date in our limo the first time you met the family.”

“What?”

“Yeah. Erin was evil to me throughout high school. Granted, she was addicted to pills and to boys—she was six shades of fucked up.”

“What—why?”

“Two excellent questions, both with pretty blasé explanations. She got in with the wrong crowd, loved the attention, and just got sucked into that shitty world. It took years of therapy, and she was in and out of rehab until she finally found a purpose. She’s one of the lucky ones—so many addicts can’t find their way back once they take their first hit.”

“Wow. Never would’ve guess that.”

“You didn’t hack them, did you?”

“What?”

“Don’t sound so surprised—I trust you, El, however, I didn’t define all the grey areas, did I?”

“Not really—but I just assumed the whole ask, don’t hack applied to everyone in your life.”

“Oh?”

“Yeah.”

“Hmm.”

“Is there something you want to ask me?”

“No,” I said a little confused. “Should there be something I should be asking you?”

“No.”

“Okay then.”

“Do me a favor?”

“Sure.”

“Beside the front door, there’s a ring of keys on the very last hook closest to the wall. Bring them to me?”

Elliot got up without saying a word and returned a minute later, the keys jangling as he walked. He handed them to me, and I shook the bubbles off my hand before I searched for my apartment key and wriggled it off the keyring.

“Here you go,” I said, holding the little silver key out to Elliot who now looked like he had a mouth full of peanut butter.

“Huh?” he asked, his mouth barely parting.

“I want you to be able to come and go as you please—and it also means I don’t have to get up to answer the door anymore, or leave it unlocked if I know you’re coming over at some point in the evening. It’s a gift of convenience.”

“Are you . . . sure?”

“It’s just a key to my apartment, El. Not an invitation to our wedding,” I finished as I closed my eyes and didn’t bother to hide the smirk on my face. I could practically hear the pistons misfiring in his brain at the mention of a wedding.

“Thanks,” came his cautious, quiet reply.

I nodded my head, not bothering to open my eyes as I let the warmth of the water envelop me again.

#Elliot Alderson #elliot alderson x reader #female reader #elliot x reader #elliot alderson fanfic #mr robot fanfiction #rami malek #rami malek character

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eightlivs · 4 years ago

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EXPERIMENT LOG: Using simulators to examine meta-universal differences in standard particle physics, tests 12A-D.

Project Summary: First run of tests to simulate and compare collisions from different universes. This was honestly more of a calibration run to test whether I was doing the right thing with the right settings, so on. Inconclusive results.

VIEW PROJECT?

START LOG

Corresponding personal log: 24 August 2020

Personal Notes: I’ve been working on this since April. It’s a little disheartening to know I can’t even check my own results - I don’t have access to a collider in my universe to double-check what I’m doing, so I’m piloting blindfolded. And because this isn’t my universe, it’s been obstacle after obstacle. I’ve had to do workaround after workaround to get this working on my personal computer - turns out Windows don’t like to run Linux programs! - and I had to TEACH myself C++, then do more workarounds because my command terminal kept throwing a fit. I hope - I really really hope - that this is just a steep learning curve.

Methods: So there’s really only one simulator I can use, because it’s the only one that would run on my personal computer. Took me a week to get the bloody thing set up. Turns out Windows doesn’t like running Linux programs.

But anyway, it should allow me to simulate colliders as well as play with some of the physics laws, once I’m good enough with programming it. It’s already taken me months to properly learn how to program it in the first place, because it’s written in C++, not FORTRAN like I’m used to. (I don’t know if that’s a universe difference or not, because the website lists the iteration before this one as being written with FORTRAN. Despite the difference being years, it could be an update I missed.)

Experiment consists of four runs total.

Run 1: Attempted simulation of my own collider.

Run 2: Collision experiment carried out at Brookhaven’s RHIC.

Run 3: Simulation of the above collision experiment (for comparison).

Run 4: Simulation of my collider, with an attempted adjustment to account for speed of light differences.

Run 5: Simulation of above collision experiment, with an attempt adjustment to account for speed of light differences.

Results: Inconclusive. Honestly, I was expecting them to look far less similar, but I guess that was optimistic thinking. They’re all similar runs - as similar as I can make them, minus the simulation of mine.

I’m going to focus on photon energy right now - I’ll get to analyzing the others later. If the speed of light is different, I’m curious about the differences in light that exist here, so yeah. I’m focusing on photons, since they’re basically light.

Analysis: Honestly, every run looks almost identical. Ugh.

As far as similarity, I expected the real experiment and its simulation to be the closest, because they’re literally the same experiment, one run on a computer and the other run in real life, but no, they aren’t. Either that means there’s more wobble room in this universe than I thought, or I’ve set something wrong on my simulation. They’re dissimilar enough to make me suspicious.

What I find really interesting is that the two closest to each other are the real experiment and the lightspeed-adjusted simulation. That doesn’t completely make sense, because PYTHIA has the numerical speed of light built into it, but... Interesting. This also indicates I may have something wrong with my simulation, because light-adjusted stuff shouldn’t be particularly similar to anything real right now, so I’ll need to keep an eye on that.

Outside of that, I don’t know what that means. I may need to get another beam time request in to compare to.

Least-similar was the simulation of my own collider and run 5, one of the lightspeed-adjusted experiments. At least THAT makes sense - simulated versions of my own collider and a wrong-lightspeed alternate universe collider SHOULD be pretty different.

The rest of it is really inconclusive. Hopefully analyzing more data will yield better results.

ATTACHED: ADDENDUM 12

END LOG

Footnotes: Everything simulated here was done with PYTHIA. Please see References for more information. For more footnotes, please see Liv’s corresponding personal log HERE.

#afhcexperiment #afhcreports

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nevertellmetheodds2017 · 4 years ago

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ok so this is SUPER unexpected

I’m feeling fatigued today so I’m going to try to make this quick & the fact is that I actually don’t have a lot of info yet BUT, the clinical trail I’m in (run by Hoffman Roche) is being partly halted & it’s complicated so this will end up long My MO and the clinical trial nurse called me to tell me, and it’s public info since yesterday that Roche was doing this. The doctor and the nurse were both quite surprised - this is very unexpected. It just opened for enrollment in Nov 2019 and it’s a huge international trial but it’s all come to a screeching halt. As to why, I need to back up and explain how this phase 3 trial started in the first place and I need to tell you that there are two (actually more but let’s ignore the others for now) types of paclitaxels available. One is plain paclitaxel and its brand name is Taxol, the other is nab-paclitaxel and its brand name is Abraxane. Abraxane is newer, has fewer side effects & is more expensive. SO. Back to Roche. When they first trialed their immunotherapy drug atezolizumab (specifically in metastatic triple neg pts), they administered it with Abraxane. THAT trial showed an improvement in PFS (progression free survival) and OS (overall survival). Not huge improvements - remember oncology studies usually measure weeks or months, some measure days... but statistically and clinically significant improvement, especially in PD-L1 positive patients (which is me!) It was the results of this trial that got my oncologist very excited and wanting to get me on atezolizumab. Then they started a study where they used atezolizumab and Taxol instead of Abraxane. That study initially reported early findings that it was as effective as with Abraxane & I believe it’s on the strength of that trial that my trial was designed. BUT yesterday, the atezo+Taxol study reported that they now show there’s NO improvement over Taxol alone in PFS and potentially some reduction in OS for some patients (but the study was under-powered to make a strong determination of OS). However, the PFS data is clear. Taxol alone or Taxol + atezolizumab did not have any difference. THIS information torpedoed MY trial which was testing atezolizumab + taxol + ipatasertib/placebo. They can’t really run it now knowing that Abraxane is needed, not Taxol.

Oh & my arm of the study was unblinded and now I know my ipatasertib was in fact a placebo so even if I had the specific tumor mutations this drug targets (which we don’t know if I do), it wasn’t doing me any good anyway. Nobody is really surprised since I had none of the side effects from it. So where does that leave us? When I spoke to the oncologist today she was inclined to stay on for the rest of this Cycle and see how it plays out (apparently Roche is letting us stay on if we want right now). I have scans at the end of August.

I THINK what we really want now is atezolizumab and Abraxane. She told me she can get me on Abraxane but the atezolizumab access is the problem. I believe since this is all so new and unfolding now, nobody is sure what Roche will continue to cover and what they won’t. Their compassionate access program requires metastatic breast ca pts to have never been on chemo or an immunotherapy post metastatic diagnosis so technically I’m excluded - but maybe they’ll make an exception for refugees from their abandoned trial? If I keep on the trial, I’m getting atezo + Taxol but it seems there’s no real benefit. But I will be asking the MO to look carefully at the atezo + Taxol study and see if they broke down their stats for PD-L1 positive/negative patients. Maybe there was a benefit for some subset of patients? So to sum up: Right now it looks like I can stay on atezo + Taxol but it’s unclear if there’s any benefit over just Taxol alone - probably not. I can withdraw and do Taxol alone. It seems to be working & the general metastatic treatment motto is don’t mess with what’s working until it stops working or the side effects are unbearable. I can withdraw and do Abraxane alone (at least one meta analysis said it had better results in the metastatic triple neg setting). Roche & the MO do magic and I get atezo plus Abraxane. So that’s the saga of the clinical trial that suddenly isn’t. I’m not worrying about it. I responded well - probably just to the Taxol but whatever. I responded. My side effects are manageable. We bought time & whether it’s on the trial or not is not really relevant.

For Stage 4 patients it’s always scan to scan, blood test to blood test until we run out of road. (well, drugs. & we triple negs run out of drugs quickly because there are only a small handful of them that work at all on our tumors)

As for me, I’m fatigued today, running a very low fever which is probably Taxol related, and my throat hurts so I’m assuming Taxol brought my oral sores back. I’m using my magic mouthwash (which I now have to swallow - bleh) and hopefully that will tamp it down. It’s uncomfortable but not unbearable.

#Roche #chemotherapy #triple negative breast cancer #clinical trials

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foreverlogical · 4 years ago

Link

There’s a right way to reopen America’s schools. It requires a clear-eyed look at the data. It demands a balanced discussion of the benefits and costs — to students, parents and educators.

And it looks very little like the path America is on.

“We really run the risk of drowning out balance by having this be ‘the people who want to reopen’ vs. ‘the people who don’t want to reopen,’” says Emily Oster, an economist at Brown University who has spent the past several months tracking coronavirus.

Oster, the author of two bestselling books taking a data-driven to parenting and pregnancy, counts herself among those in the “reopen the schools” camp. She worries that keeping schools closed will hurt kids’ education, hurt the economy, hurt parents—especially moms—and widen the inequities that the pandemic is already causing.

But when it comes to how we re-open, that’s another matter. “Florida has said its schools will open in the first weeks of August,” she says. “That’s three or four weeks from now. That’s crazy,” said Oster. “Based on where we are now, if Florida just opens the doors to schools and has everybody back in a normal way, just with a few masks, then a bunch of people are going to have Covid.”

“We’re telling places, ‘Open your schools! Open your schools!’ Like, with what money? Schools don’t have the money to do what they’re supposed to in a basic setting, let alone in this moment,” said Oster. “I look at the bills and run some of this stuff at Brown. I look at the money we’re going to spend on disinfecting wipes. And it’s millions of dollars — on wipes! I mean, this is expensive for a highly funded Ivy League university. Forget about it for a rural school.”

Since early May, Oster has been sorting through the data about coronavirus at Covid-Explained, a website she launched with other academics and medical experts to give normal people a clear reading of what we really do and don’t know about the virus. She concedes that there is a risk to reopening schools—there is a risk to keeping them closed, too. And she acknowledges the high stakes of that decision can seem daunting.

“One of the things I try to remind people is that we make those calculations all the time,” said Oster. We allow people to drive their cars and to have swimming pools and do all kinds of stuff we know to be risky, and which — in the case of driving cars — have risks to other people. As a society, we allow some of those tradeoffs, even though we might not be thinking about them in exactly this way.”

So, what would need to happen to safely reopen schools — and how far are we from making that happen? On Thursday, Oster spoke to POLITICO about all of this. A transcript of the conversation is below, edited for length and clarity.

Zack Stanton: Let’s start here: What is the case for reopening schools?

Emily Oster: The positive case for reopening schools is that kids learn better in school — quite a lot better. That’s one piece of it. In this experience, we’ve seen pretty large learning losses from kids not being in school. And those losses are disproportionately felt by lower-income students and students with fewer with fewer resources. So for the same reasons we worry about the “summer slump,” there’s now many months of summer slump, and the idea of a whole year of summer slump is pretty problematic. The second piece is that unless kids are at school, it’s difficult for parents to work, and that’s going to make it harder to reopen other aspects of the economy.

Stanton: You’re a professor of economics. From an economist’s viewpoint, how do you measure the costs and benefits of reopening schools?

Oster: It’s very, very hard. I just gave you the case for reopening, but I think there’s a case for staying closed, which is largely rooted in public health — and, in particular, concerns about health risks for staff, who are at a much higher risk than students — and the general sense that if schools open, there will be more movement around, and that may itself trigger more cases. That’s the cost side.

From an economist’s standpoint, we want to take this seriously. How large are the potential health risks? What does the evidence say? How large are the potential benefits in terms of, say, long-term impact on kids, as well as immediate impact on their parents and the economy? Think about how to weigh those things. Part of what makes this difficult — and part of why people find economists unpalatable in these discussions — is that ultimately all of those trade-offs are going to involve saying, “I’m willing to take this risk with someone’s health in order to have these other benefits.” That is a viscerally uncomfortable thing to say — and I also find that uncomfortable. I’m a person in addition to being an economist. But one of the things I try to remind people is that we make those calculations all the time. We allow people to drive their cars and to have swimming pools and do all kinds of stuff we know to be risky, and which — in the case of driving cars — have risks to other people. As a society, we allow some of those tradeoffs, even though we might not be thinking about them in exactly this way.

Stanton: You’ve written two books about data-based parenting. Part of your approach is being a parent and economist who’s willing to read the data and take calculated risks. But when it comes to reopening schools, it’s not just the risks for your child, it’s every child in town. Does that change the way you approach this conversation?

Oster: Yeah. So I think there’s actually two conversations we can have. One is the conversation policymakers are having. As they make choices, they are facing those tradeoffs, and ideally, they are thinking about those tradeoffs not from the standpoint of, “What is good for my kid,” but “What is good for the kids and the adults and the public health situation?” Absorbing all of those things. Some of what I’m saying here relies on the idea that we’re weighing those tradeoffs not just as parents.

Now, part of what’s odd is that I am also making all these choices as an individual. I’m thinking about what to do with my kid, both in terms of what is safe for them, but also what is safe for the broader world. It’s harder to think about than sleep-training [a baby], where either you sleep-train or you don’t, and the person experiencing that is you and all the people experiencing the repercussions are in your house.

Stanton: Now, it’s like you’re sleep-training a baby, but everyone in town is waking up throughout the night.

Oster: Exactly.

Stanton: Schools are the default childcare system for most kids ages 4–18. What does life in America look like come fall if schools don’t open up?

Oster: I’m not sure. I think it depends a lot on what we mean by “don’t open up.” The things I’ve seen districts talk about range from classes being totally online, to in-person two or three days a week, to “bring them all back and hope for the best.” New York City announced that kids are going to be in school between 1–3 days a week. For some families, those other days are going to be covered by parents. I think we’ll see more people, particularly women, slowing down their return to the labor force or moving to part-time. There will be some economy-wide implications around that, particularly for women. There are also families in which it is not an option to go part-time, whether financially or for some other reason. We’re going to see a bunch of kids who go to school, and then on the “off” days, go to home daycare or other childcare. There are very significant public health concerns around that. If your whole thing is, “I want the kids to be in a ‘pod’ in school, because that’s the safest thing,” and then on the other two or three days of the week, they’re in random other ‘pods’ of childcare or in a home daycare with an elderly caregiver and a bunch of kids rotating through, that’s actually substantially more risky. We haven’t really thought about what the alternatives are, and how those may be costly in the same kind of ways.

Stanton: You recently wrote a piece for the Atlantic on the quality of the data about the safety of schools reopening. How good is the data that we do have?

Oster: Terrible. Very bad. Let me caveat that: It is increasingly clear that the ways in which Covid impacts kids health-wise are fairly limited. Most kids don’t get especially sick. It’s not that they can’t get sick, but they tend to have mild infections and infection rates tend to be lower. That’s the piece where the data has come to some conclusion and has been reasonably good. But on the broader questions — When you open schools, how much transmission will there be? Will they be sources of infection? Are there going to be big clusters? — our data is very, very poor.

The data from Europe is pretty encouraging. They reopened schools. And, of course, they’ve seen cases of Covid, but for the most part, they haven’t seen schools as major vectors of infection. At the same time, the school situation in Europe is very different than in the U.S. They took many more precautions. The classrooms were socially distant. There was a lot of mask wearing. Also, Europe is a different place than America. So that data is helpful, but in a lot of ways, it’s hard to learn from. In the U.S., there are some settings we could learn from, like early childcare centers that have stayed open. I tried to collect a little bit of data about that, but actually our evidence is really poor. The way that states and official reports come out, it’s very difficult to use the data. Even the small amount of information they are putting out is actually not sufficient to make any decisions with, because it doesn't contain enough of the right pieces of data. It’s very bad.

Stanton: I imagine that there’ll be some concern about making policy decisions when the data we do have is questionable at best.

Oster: Yeah. What would be great is if states were doing a better job tracking childcare settings. I’ve spent a lot of time talking about the importance of summer camps, too. Early childcare centers are good to track, but it’s not exactly the same age range. A lot of places have opened summer camps; that’s a place you could track. But again, it’s not enough to just say — I’ve seen some things in the media like, “There was an outbreak. There were some cases of this at a camp.” That’s good to know. But what we would like to understand is, say there are 40 cases, how many kids were there? What precautions were they taking? What is happening in all the other camps? We don't just want to report on the one case where this happened.

Stanton: Do you know which state is planning to reopen its schools first?

Oster: So, Florida has said its schools will open in the first weeks of August. That’s three or four weeks from now. That’s crazy.

Stanton: Florida’s done a pretty miserable job of managing coronavirus.

Oster: Very bad.

Stanton: Are you concerned with Florida as the test case here — that they’ll come back ahead of most other states, and if things go poorly, it’ll deter schools elsewhere from reopening?

Oster: Yeah. I think it could go in directions. But based on where we are now, if Florida just opens the doors to schools and has everybody back in a normal way, just with a few masks, then a bunch of people are going to have Covid. And just to be clear, that may have nothing to do with the fact that they were in school, it’s just that a lot of people have Covid in Florida, and there will be some spread in school because there’ll be some spread everywhere. We’re gonna see that.

It’s very irresponsible to do this in the middle of an enormous outbreak without appropriate precautions. And I am worried that then people will say, ‘Look, we can’t reopen schools safely anywhere.’ Here in Rhode Island, we’re doing the most testing in the nation. The share of people testing positive is about one percent. At the moment, we have like 35 people with Covid in hospitals in the whole state. To say that we’re going to look at Florida and say, “They reopened the schools and look what happened. We shouldn't reopen them at the end of August.” [pause] It’s bad. This whole thing is really — it’s like there’s so little oversight and leadership, and so few resources. And the other piece that’s really frustrating is we’re telling places, “Open your schools! Open your schools!” Like, with what money? Schools don’t have the money to do what they’re supposed to in a basic setting, let alone in this moment.

Stanton: Yeah, the School Superintendents Association estimated that an average school district — something like 3,600 students, eight buildings and 300-some staff — would need $1.8 million just to meet basic reopening needs, like PPE or deep cleaning or —

Oster: Hand sanitizer! We’re doing this at universities, and I look at the bills and run some of this stuff at Brown. I look at the money we’re going to spend on disinfecting wipes. And it’s millions of dollars — on wipes! I mean, this is expensive for a highly funded Ivy League university. Forget about it for a rural school.

Stanton: In thinking about reopening schools, when you break it down into the component parts that are required for that to happen, it’s difficult to imagine figuring out all the moving parts in time. Kids riding school buses: how does that work? Cafeterias and school lunches?

Oster: And recess.

Stanton: Music classes, with kids singing aloud or breathing hot air through instruments?

Oster: Yeah, no singing.

Stanton: Or gym class. Or water fountains. I could go on and on. How do you think through all of that — the component parts of reopening schools?

Oster: One of the things I’ve been emphasizing is a need to decide some big-picture things — what we’re going to do — and then try to tackle these individually. I think what’s very overwhelming for people in these discussions is that we are sort of simultaneously discussing the question of, “Should we reopen, and in what broad sense?” And questions like, “What about the buses?” Really, those questions need to be sequenced. You need to say, we’re going to open two days a week, five days a week, not at all — whatever it is. Make some decision there, and then move on to these individual things. Until you have a basic plan, it is very hard for all the individual pieces to come together. If I’m thinking about buses, that is dependent on whether there are five days of buses or two days of buses or no buses. You need a basic framework and then you’ve just gotta tick through these as much as we can.

Stanton: When it comes to things like students wearing masks, we’ve all seen these viral videos of adults having hissy fits in Costco or Wal-Mart —

Oster: Or Trader Joe's.

Stanton: — after being denied entry or service because they refused to wear a mask. It’s easy to imagine an amplified trend of that this fall if and when a student or parent is denied entry into a public school unless they wear a mask. Given that some people are refusing to do even the most basic things you'd want them to do to combat coronavirus, what makes you confident that we will be able to do the more complicated and nuanced aspects of this that are needed for schools to open?

Oster: I wouldn't say I’m confident. I’m not confident. [Laughs] The thing that schools have that is different from some of these other cases is the ability to enforce. Look at something like vaccines. I’ve done a little bit of work on vaccination compliance in California. California has a pretty significant anti-vax population. And the vaccination rates were going down, down, down. Schools basically said, ‘You should be vaccinated, but if you write down on a piece of paper that you don’t feel like it, we’ll let you out of it.’ That was the standard policy. And then after the [2014-2015] Disneyland measles outbreak, California passed a very stringent vaccination law, which said basically, ‘If you don’t have your vaccine, you either don’t go to school, or we’ll call up a doctor and schedule all of your vaccines.’ And vaccination compliance rates went up immediately. If you tell people you can't enter a public school unless you get vaccinated, yes, a few people are going to be the vaccination equivalent of the guy in Trader Joe’s who refuses to wear a mask to get his Brussels sprouts.

What’s potentially more problematic is individual school districts. People have written to me: “What do you suggest I do? The school superintendent in my district thinks the coronavirus is a hoax.” Well, if that’s the case, then I don't see how you’re going to get people to wear masks, because it’s not a problem with the people; it’s a problem with the leadership. That’s the piece I’m more worried about.

Stanton: So let’s say that schools are mostly safe to reopen, but not perfect. Who should be making the cost-benefit calculus as to whether a school or district reopens? Teachers? Parents? Districts? States? The Trump administration?

Oster: Not last one. At the end of the day, this decision is going to need to be made by probably some combination of the of the state and the school administration. But one of the pieces that’s really missing from a lot of the discussion at this point is input from teachers. There’s a lot of teachers’ groups — unions, yes, but not just unions — who feel like basically these choices are being made for them. And they’re very nervous. I do see the perspective of the administrators, which is, ‘We’re trying to think about everybody, and we don't have time to fight.’ But there is a point to listening and hearing people’s concerns, and also trying to make teachers and staff understand the ways in which, hopefully, we will be protecting them. I’ve been pushing for routine [coronavirus] testing for teachers. Spread among teachers in a school is probably more important than spread from kids to teachers, based on what we know.

Stanton: Within the last couple of days, there have been reports that the White House is planning to release its own guidelines for school reopenings —

Oster: God only knows what that will involve.

Stanton: — and saying the CDC’s guidelines are too restrictive. The CDC director said it was “not the intent of the CDC to be used as a rationale to keep schools closed.” What are the risks of school reopenings getting politicized?

Oster: As these things get politicized, the ability to have a balanced discussion about it deteriorates. I’ve found that even in the last couple of days. I am basically more pro-school reopening than some people, but I’m trying very hard to sort of take a balanced view. Yes, it’s important for kids and the economy, but we need to be very careful to do it safely.

But I’m finding myself being like, “Oh my God. The person agreeing with me is Donald Trump. That’s not a comfortable place.” And they’ve taken like a totally different, less-nuanced approach — like we have to just reopen at all costs.

We really run the risk of drowning out balance by having this be “the people who want to reopen” vs. “the people who don’t want to reopen.” I think we could all agree that schools are important. I think our question is, how are we balancing these risks and benefits? But that’s not the president’s question.

Stanton: How concerned are you about the way that this whole experience will imprint on kids for the long term?

Oster: My big concerns really revolve around kids who are in lower-income circumstances, who are going to experience learning losses and the sort of trauma associated with just how difficult some pieces of these last few months have been. And kids who lost family members — there’s a lot going on there. Certainly, there’s some increased anxiety in kids; I suspect that is manageable, and probably people are feeling it more now than they will in the long term. But I think if we don't open, if we don’t have good schooling next year, things are going to be worse.

Stanton: Final question: What’s your advice to a parent who wants their child to return to school, but is really nervous and unsure about all of this?

Oster: The main thing I would say is this: If your kid is healthy and not immunocompromised, then the risks to them are really quite low. And if you are healthy and not immunocompromised and relatively young, the risk to you is also pretty low. We really don't have a lot of examples where kids are the index case in a household. In that sense, the data is reassuring.

But the other thing I would tell people is that even within your family, you have to make a choice you’re comfortable with. And if you feel like you are not comfortable with your kid going back to school, and you think you can manage it at home, that is a totally legitimate choice and one you should feel comfortable making.

Part of what’s hard about this is everybody’s managing this for the first time, and it is sort of like this macrocosm of other parenting things. It’s like, “How could you make that choice? What are you, afraid of the coronavirus?” Yeah! I’m afraid of the coronavirus! It should be OK to say, “Yes, I am uncomfortable. This does not work for my family.” Just like some of us are going to say, “You know, I’ve thought about this, and I think the best thing for my family is for my kids to go back to school.” I think we have to try to be nice to each other. That’s my message: Try to be nice to each other.

VISIT WEBSITE

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hopefulfestivaltastemaker · 4 years ago

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August 9, 2020

My weekly review of things I am doing and looking at. A long one this time; topics included disease risk in the food system, my research work patterns, ROI for energy R&D, Apocalypse Never, OpenCog, and housing and transportation in Hillsboro.

Disease Risk and the Food System

Last week I started looking at zoonotic diseases for Urban Cruise Ship, and this week I continued a bit more on disease risk. The current page is here.

Sans images, there is now material on foodborne illnesses, antibiotic resistance as it pertains to antibiotics in livestock, ecological risk from GM crops, and crop disease risk from monoculture. The section is far from done, but it is probably going to go on hold for a while. A few observations:

- Disease risk in general is a major issue, very much on our minds due to COVID-19. That’s a big can of worms. It would take an indeterminate amount of work to do the topic justice and require that I move well beyond the food system. So it’s one that I will have to take one bite at a time.

- There is an image under development that portrays foodborne illness risk in the US by type of food, but there is also a need to look at underlying causes, recognizing that food is a transmission vector and not necessarily the underlying cause.

- Antibiotic resistance looks like a scary topic. There is a report that antibiotic-resistant bacteria could kill 10 million people per year by 2050, which sounds scary, but I need more context on that number. Does this assume a business as usual trajectory where we don’t develop new antibiotics or develop alternative treatments for AMR bacteria, such as plasma medicine, and how much do such developments bend the curve?

- Ultimately I would like to be able to assess externalized monetary cost from antibiotics in livestock in terms of AMR bacteria. I don’t have this yet, but it should be possible.

- I half-assed the genetic risks, and I think justifiably so. I don’t see any evidence, aside from vague appeals to the precautionary principle, to support any significant ecological risks from GM crops. Partly to justify the half-assedness of my effort on the topic, I pointed to a Google Trends search indicating that the public is losing interest in the GMO issue.

A few years ago, I thought I was being bold and edgy by pointing to a lack of evidence of any health or environmental risks from GMOs per se. Now that seems like the safe position, and GMO opponents have (deservedly in my view) generally lost credibility in the way the anti-vax movement has.

- One of my associates is interested in systemic risks from crop monoculture, which prompted me to add that section. It appears that disease risk is the major such systemic risk. The issue of crop and animal disease (as opposed to human diseases for which the food system is a vector) is also a major topic deserving of more careful review and analysis. I would suspect that, from the viewpoint of disease, monoculture is not the most important issue, but it appears that way because monoculture was my entry point into the topic.

The Urban Cruise Ship Work Pattern

I figured now would be a decent time to open the hood and make a few comments about how I am going about the work. Recently the funder made some major additions and changes to the scope of work. This is good for me from a job security standpoint, but it means I need to do some major rethinking about how I go about the project, to insure that things get done at a high level of quality and in reasonable time.

We are ultimately trying to present the best data, analysis, and solutions available on the full range of environmental topics.

Such a grandiose vision requires that I innovate not just in how I think about particular issues, but in how I think about the big picture and how I work. We are setting into a comparison and monetization scheme to present data, a view that was driven by the funder but I have been convinced is best.

One thing I have learned is that knowledge across topics is synergistic. That means that is probably going to be more efficient to aim for a broad and shallow understanding of the environmental landscape, after which we go deeper on the things that require a deeper understanding. This is why I am moving on from the agriculture risk section despite having a superficial treatment of the subject; I intend to come back to it later when it can be better informed by material elsewhere on the site, and I also hope that I have done there will help inform the next sections of work.

This is a work style that suits me well. My mind is always jumping from one area to the next, and I like to draw connections and look at the big picture. This is very much a contrast from most of academic work, which requires a very deep analysis of a narrow topic. I ultimately lost interest in my narrow corner of mathematical research and was not able to make a successful jump to another area; hence (in part) I was not suited for the tenure track.

The obvious drawback is what one sees on the site now. It is obviously incomplete and a bit of a mess, and it will probably remain in such a state for the foreseeable future. It means I have to move fast, which increases the risk of making major mistakes. I fear we are operating at too high a level of abstraction and generality to make actionable policy recommendations.

Although not a high priority, I really wish I could integrate the graphic making process into the larger codebase. The current division of labor is such that I see no way to do so. I dislike having these “Image Under Development” messages and lacking the flexibility to easily modify images as the research proceeds or new data become available.

Return on Investment for R&D

I mentioned before some studies that the US Department of Energy has done on effectiveness of its research and development efforts. Having looked at them more closely, I found something a bit surprising.

I tried my best to harmonize the numbers reported to make a fair comparison. It’s not perfect, but the following seem to be the central estimates of the ROI for the program investment areas studied:

Combustion engines: 53

Building technologies: 42

Wind: 5.07

Geothermal: 4.865

Hybrid and electric vehicles: 3.63

Solar PV: 1.83

They all look like good investments, though building technologies (HVAC, water heating, appliances) and combustion engines clearly stand out as the best. I would have expected the opposite. Since the building and combustion areas are more incremental, there should be more incentive for the private sector to do the R&D and therefore a “crowding out” effect that would blunt the effectiveness of the public investment.

Part of this could be an artifact of the study methodology. Since the time horizon for the lower return technologies is longer, they simply haven’t captured the full benefit. The solar PV study was done in 2010, and I would expect a higher return to be found if it was redone today. There could also be an attribution problem, in that with developing more novel technologies, it is harder to attribute gains to a particular R&D investment, therefore depressing the observed ROI.

I want to propose some solutions on R&D efforts for synfuels and industry, so these studies might provide guidance as to what kind of investments can be expected to work best. Maybe this is a sign that I should be thinking more about short term gains.

Apocalypse Never

Apocalypse Never is a new book by Michael Shellenberger castigating the harmful effects of what he sees as environmental alarmism. I haven’t read it, but I have read enough of Shellenberger’s work and discussion around it to make some relevant observations.

Not too surprisingly, the reaction from the environmental community seems to be mostly negative. This article from Snopes captures fairly well what academic climate/environmental researchers think. Despite being from Snopes, the character of the article isn’t a “debunking” so much as a critical analysis. There is much disagreement about semantics (e.g. are we really in the Sixth Mass Extinction?) rather than factual disputes. Though I have a few of those too.

Since I hope one day to have major public exposure for Urban Cruise Ship, the discussion is a helpful case study in how to present material and what kind of reception I should expect.

Since I am critical of several aspects of environmentalism--particularly degrowth and related elements--I expect some negative reaction. To blunt the effect of criticism, I think I need do to a better job of operating on the following principles:

- Focus on principles and avoid ad hominem attacks, including against abstractions such as fields and movements.

- Make every effort to insure facts presented are accurate.

- Find the right level of nuance. Too little nuance can be inaccurate. Too much nuance can water down a message to the point of meaninglessness.

Though most of the discussion I saw was pretty even-handed, there is some gatekeeping that goes on in the climate community. The bogeyman of the “climate denier” looms large and triggers a kind of circle-the-wagons mentality when the field is criticized, whether justly or unjustly. Lacking formal credentials or institutional backing, I am going to be vulnerable to gatekeeping and probably can’t do anything about it.

OpenCog

Having listened to Ben Goertzel on Lex Fridman’s podcast a while back, I got around this week to looking over OpenCog, which is Goertzel’s open source project to create artificial general intelligence.

There is a ton of material here that will take a long time to work through, especially considering that I am doing it only as a side project. Just reviewing the set of AI principles being brought to bear in the project, though, buoyed my spirits and excited me about the field in a way I haven’t felt in a long time. I am already thinking about some work I can do. Contributing to OpenCog is beyond my capabilities at present, but I have some related design ideas that have been sitting on the shelf for a long time and are time to give another look at.

I have no idea if this effort toward AGI will work. But I would guess that it is more likely to work than an approach rooted exclusively in deep learning, such as the GPT approach, which suffers from intractable diseconomies of scale. In particular, I think that a semantic encoding of knowledge is a necessary component of any AGI stack. There are people with far more expertise who disagree.

Housing and Transportation in Hillsboro

I’ve dialed back my political activities a bit lately, but there were some items at the Hillsboro (Oregon) City Council this week worth commenting on.

City staff presented on efforts to implement HB 2001, a piece of state legislation that mandates most cities allow for middle housing (du-, tri-, quad-plexes, cottage housing, small apartments) in residential areas. Without naming names, my read on the council and mayor is that among the seven, two are generally pro-housing, two are generally anti-housing, one is squishy, and two I don’t have a good read on. I have written to them to indicate my desire that we take advantage of the opportunity provided by HB 2001 for an expansive approach to opening up housing opportunities in Hillsboro.

We also had a presentation on the Get Moving package, which is the transportation package that Metro has now referred to the ballot in November. City staff seemed to be negative. The presenter asserted that Hillsboro gets a disproportionately low ROI (about 0.56) for the project and that Metro was unduly influenced by Portland-based anti-vehicle activists to reject road expansion capacity that Hillsboro needs. One council member expressed her concern (which I agree with) that the financial burden falls entirely on large employers, which will be particularly harmful in Hillsboro and I think is bad tax policy in general. On the positive side, the package includes some badly needed safety upgrades to TV Highway, which is the most dangerous highway in the state per-mile for both pedestrians and motorists. There is also money for a study of a downtown Portland MAX tunnel, which I think will be very important for the region. Ultimately, despite the extensive public engagement theatre, it is a pre-COVID package, based on economic and transportation demand assumptions that may no longer be reasonable.

I haven’t yet decided how I will vote on the package, but I am leaning toward a No right now.

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thestorytellerofkpop · 5 years ago

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The Steps in Finding Love; Trust

Title: The Steps in Finding Love; Trust

Word Count: 7.8k+

Rating: T with eventual M

Genre: Realistic fiction, slice of life, drama, fluff with eventual smut

Warnings: Established member x member relationship, bad made up makeup names and references, a desert fantasy, Jungkook is soft, this is part three of a four part series

Pairings: Female Reader x BTS members, Jimin x Jungkook (Jikook)

Summary: “The third step to finding love was trust, and I didn’t know what that truly meant until I got to experience it again.”

1, 2, 3, 4 (finale, coming August 23rd)

You didn’t know what time it was, nor did you seem to care as your fingers diligently typed away at the computer in front of you. The blue haze was your only source of light as you worked in the darkness of your office, besides the faint white light that shined through the glass walls from the end of the hallway. Your eyes were glazed over and your back was bent, leaning towards the screen almost as if that would make you work faster and quicker. But you knew that it was moot. Nothing was working. According to your sales charts and collective data, nothing you would produce would live up to the hype that was Cake. Sure, Taehyung’s creative visions were produced and marketed, as well as the occasional idea from Jimin and Jungkook, and they did well! Don’t confuse yourself, because those sales were great and profitable. But they didn’t reach the numbers that Cake did. None of these ideas that were pitched two days ago would either, according to your analysis. And you were panicking. Sales were steady for now, but were projected to drop off in the next year if you and your team didn’t get something out soon. You refused to be ‘The Proclaimers’ of the makeup industry, only having one huge one-hit wonder then retire after a crappy attempt at a second album (in your case, makeup line). This was your newest dilemma, and oh were you stressed.

You sighed, running a hand down your face to try and wake yourself up, but it was to no avail. You plopped your head down onto your desk, repeatedly banging your forehead against the cool glass. A soft tapping sound made you look up from your fit, and like an angel descending from the gates of heaven was Taehyung. His manicured nails tapped against the door again, looking at you through the glass with the softest expression you’ve ever seen him have. You tilted your head, and Taehyung entered, pulling along one of the chairs in your office so he could sit with you. Once he plopped down next to you, you sighed, looking up into his eyes.

“Hi,” you mumbled guiltily.

“Hi.” Taehyung’s lips pulled up into a smile, but you could tell from his eyes he wasn’t exactly happy with you. “You know it’s 4 a.m. right?”

“No,” you admitted. “I wasn’t keeping track of the time.”

Taehyung sighed, leaning across the desk to turn on the little lamp there, basking the room into a soft golden glow. He gently closed the laptop in front of you, forcing you to focus only on him.

He looked beautiful. He always did. White-washed jeans, white t-shirt, round glasses, and his shaggy grey hair really did make him look angelic. He was actually dressed down today. There was no elaborate makeup like usual, only a simple coverup and a swipe of something glossy on his lips. And his jewelry was barren, only simple silver studs were in his ears and a silver band around his pointer finger. This made your eyes crinkle.

“What’s wrong?” you asked him. Taehyung pursed his lips.

“Why would something be wrong?”

“Because you haven’t dressed this simply since high school.” you argued, and this made Taehyung smile.

“Can’t I dress down every once in a while?” he countered.

“Without eyeshadow and contouring?” your eyes studied his face carefully, the corners of your lips twitching in amusement. “Bitch, please.”

This made Taehyung laugh, long and hearty, and you couldn’t help but join him.

“Okay, fine, I resent.” Taehyung said through his dying giggles. “It’s the boys.” you furrowed your brows at his words, shifting to look at him more clearly.

“What’s wrong? Are they okay?” Taehyung sighed, idly picking through the papers on your desk.

“I had to take them into emergency care this morning.”

“What!?” you gasped, watching Taehyung’s face contort into one of despair. You took his hand into yours, scooting closer so that your knees were touching underneath the desk.

“Both of them?” Taehyung nodded, and with that you pulled him in for a hug, practically pulling the larger male into your lap as he sighed against your neck.

“Will they be okay though?” you mumbled, and you felt Taehyung nod against your skin.

“They’ll be stuck at the hospital for a while though.”

“Hey, look at me,” you guided Taehyung’s head up so you could look at him. “Yeontan and V are the strongest boys I know, they’ll be okay, I promise.”

“It was V that was having complications this morning, and you know how Yeontannie is. He didn’t want to leave his big brother so I had no choice but to leave him with V at the emergency vet center. They’ll be there for the rest of the week.” Taehyung lips pulled into a frown.

“I was lonely without my fluffy boys, I couldn’t sleep without them in bed with me so that’s why I came to the office. Only to find the second most important girl in my life here looking like a hermit slouched over her computer. So now it’s your turn. What’s wrong?”

“Who’s the most important girl in your life?” you asked curiously.

“My mother.” Taehyung giggled.

“Fair enough.” you chuckled as Taehyung moved back into his chair.

“So what’s up Y/N? It’s not like you to stay and work overnight.”

“I know,” you sighed, looking down at the remnants of your work clothes. You had taken off your blouse and changed into one of the BeauV Cosmetics t-shirts that were left in the stock room, the letters curly and bright blue against the black background. You still wore your shorts, opting for the denim instead of your usual work pants since you didn’t have any meetings today. And your heels were in the corner, sparkling and golden. “I’ve been running projections all night.”

“And?” Taehyung asked. You sighed, opening your laptop. Taehyung peered over your shoulder as you pulled up multiple screens and analysis.

“We’ll be steady for a year before sales will start to exponentially go down. We need another constant. We need another Cake. Another V line, another PJM or JJK. Because everything newer is okay, don’t get me wrong. We have sales and everything. But it’s nothing compared to our first stuff. We’ve been playing too safe recently and until we come up with something amazing, by this time next year we might be forgotten.”

“You know the fans wouldn’t let that happen,” Taehyung tried to reassure you. You knew he was right. You had a loyal fanbase. But…

“Yeah I know. But we’re no James Charles or Jeffree Star. We have fans, sure, but our following isn’t as large.” Taehyung sighed, grabbing your hand just like how you grabbed his.

“You’re right babe, we don’t have as many fans as they do. But y’know what? We aren’t them. We’re us. We’re BeauV. We’re Y/N, Jimin, Jungkook, and Taehyung. And I wouldn’t change it for the world. We’re amazing, we’re beautiful, and we’re gonna get through this. We just…need a creative spark to boost us up is all.” Taehyung smiled as you contemplated his words.

“And how do you suggest we do that?”

~*~

You crossed your arms as you watched your three friends run around the parking lot, admiring and drooling over the vintage cars. Taehyung had flown you all out to America, Arizona to be exact, for a well needed vacation. He said taking a break and getting out of the country would help get the creative juices flowing. Why he had picked Arizona of all places you didn’t know, but you had to admit you loved the desert. The bright orange Rockies and clear blue skies were visually stunning.

“Y/N! Y/N!” Jungkook ran up to you, his eyes shinning with child-like glee. “Come look at the car we picked out!” he grabbed your hand, tugging you through the hot, dry air to meet Jimin and Taehyung.

“Oh,” you gasped, gently running the tips of your fingers over the hot, red metal. It was like stepping into every 1950′s movie you watched as a child, the old school Chevy was cherry red, and it’s white top was down, showing off the red leather. The whitewall tires were to die for and you instantly had a craving for Coca-Cola.

“Beautiful, right?” Jimin chuckled, jumping into the backseat. “She’s ours for the next two weeks!”

“How expensive-”

“Hush,” Taehyung shushed you, placing a finger over your lips. “It’s fine Y/N. Money is but an object.”

“But the business-”

“Y/N,” Jungkook whined, his lips pulling into a pout as he joined Jimin in the back. “This vacation is supposed to take our minds off work, just relax. It’s fine.”

“He’s right. We have savings sweetie, it’s okay, just enjoy yourself.” Jimin coaxed you with a gentle smile.

“C’mon,” Taehyung opened the passenger door for you, allowing you to sit against the warm leather seats. He closed the door, quickly running to the drivers side before starting the car. The engine purred to life and it’s rumble made your heart beat faster.

Taehyung drove out of the lot with a squeal of the tires and out into the Arizona sun. The wind whipped through your hair and in between your fingers as you stared in awe at the mountains and cactuses and the long, dusty asphalt roads. Taehyung blared music through the radio, classic rock ringing through your ears with the sounds of the whipping wind. You could hear Jimin and Jungkook singing behind you, and you turned around to sneak a peak at them.

Their hair was wild, whipping through the wind like yours, but their smiles were radiant, taking in the sun and music as you all drove deeper into the desert. They looked so happy and carefree, so beautiful and so loved that it made your heart clench. They put on each other’s sunglasses and when Jungkook caught you staring he just giggled, pulling an extra pair from his bag and shoving them up your nose, the bright, neon colors becoming a little muted. He bopped your nose, making you smile as you turned to Taehyung.

He had his sunglasses on too, the wired ones with the pink lenses in them. His smile didn’t waver, weaving the car through twists and turns that caused you all to laugh from the speed. He caught your eye, sending you a sly wink when he grabbed your hand, pulling them up into the wind flying by. You laughed at his antics, throwing up your other hand and for the first time in a long while, you finally felt free. Free from the work, free from the stress.

You were finally able to just let go.

You screamed in joy, joining the boys singing in the backseat and you felt like you were home. You could feel the love your boys had for you and each other, and you hoped that they could feel your love for them too. You felt two other hands join yours and Taehyungs in the air, and when you looked and saw all your boys smiling at you, all of you holding each other’s hands, you knew you’d rather be no where else but here underneath the Arizona sun.

The afternoon went on, the music never stopping and the wind always blowing. The sun soon began to set, and when you stopped for gas you all changed positions as you stretched your legs. Now Jimin was driving; Taehyung joined him up front as you and Jungkook lounged in the backseat. Jimin was slower in his driving, barely going over 30 mph, taking the backroads so that you all could cruise and watch the sunset.

You were laying against Jungkook, your back pressed up against his chest as both your legs tangled across the length of the seat, Jungkook’s feet touching the other side of the car. You were idly taking pictures of the sunset with your phone, capturing the shades of orange, pink and purple while Jimin and Taehyung sang soft tunes in the front seats, their voices calming as the light breeze traveled around you. Jungkook’s arms were wrapped around you, the fabric of his hoodie soft and comforting. You snuggled further into his embrace, taking your final pictures before dropping your phone to the floor of the car, turning to hide your face into his chest. Jungkook chuckled, nudging his nose against the curve of your cheek gently, his wispy hair tickling your skin.

“Comfortable, sweetheart?” he hummed, his hands gently rubbing circles into your stomach. You nodded, gently grabbing one of Jungkook’s hands as you closed your eyes, feeling Jungkook’s smile against your skin.

“Aww, how cute.” Taehyung cooed from the front seat. You heard Jimin laugh, and could imagine him shaking his head in disbelief.

“It is pretty cute, the two of them all wrapped up together like that.” Jimin admitted, a light giggle falling past his lips. You heard the shutter of a camera and Taehyung giggling.

“Adorable, especially with the sunset around them,” Jimin cooed, “You really do love cuddling with women, huh Kookie?” Jimin teased, and you could feel Jungkook laugh into your hair.

“I love cuddling with Y/N,” he corrected, “Besides, she lets me be the big spoon.”

Taehyung laughed at this, teasing Jimin for being the big spoon when Jungkook clearly had a good few inches on him.

“Women are just better cuddlers,” Taehyung admitted with a wistful sigh. “They’re so soft, and warm. Plus their boobs dude, they’re like little pillows.”

You giggled into Jungkook’s chest, and if only you could see the bright smile he gave you, his teeth poking out behind his lips as he giggled too.

“Don’t worry babe, you’re still an amazing cuddler.” Jungkook reassured his husband, his fingers gently squeezing your own. “But sometimes you just want a woman’s touch.”

“As long as it’s consensual I don’t care,” Jimin rolled his eyes playfully, a flirtatious glint etched in them. “Besides, I know you’ll always be back in my bed at the end of the day. You can’t resist this ass.” Jimin blew him a kiss and Taehyung laughed so hard that tears pooled into his eyes.

The sky soon became dark, the stars shining in more amounts than you’ve ever seen, and you all stared in awe at the mass amount of them without the city lights around you.

“We need to find a place for the night.” Jimin said.

“Just keep going down this road, take the right fork back to the main road and go down a couple miles, I found a little place to stay at before we left.” Taehyung told Jimin.

“Jungkookie?”

“Hmm?”

“Where’re we going? What’s our final destination?” Jungkook just smiled, placing a peck into the palm of your hand.

“The beauty of spontaneity Y/N, is that you never really know. But just enjoy the adventure, Taehyung knows what he’s doing.” he whispered to you.

After another fifteen minutes you were all pulling up to an adobe styled hotel, with a central plaza and all. You all took your luggage from the trunk, admiring the clay walls and oil paintings as the hotel keeper showed you all to your rooms. You were with Taehyung again, to save money he said, but really you knew he was lonely without his fluffy dogs to keep him warm at night. Your suspicions were confirmed when you were met with only one, king-sized bed (Jimin and Jungkook later telling you that they both had one as well). The room was tan and beautiful, traditional art and rugs of the region were scattered about and the tiles of the floor were white and pristine.

You were allowed five minutes to freshen up before the boys pulled you out to hunt for food, finding yourself in a saloon-esque building in another ten. There was a bar on one wall and tables with hungry patrons against the other, but the stage is what caught your eye the most. You knew the building had to have been a strip club at one point, the long cat-walk isle down the center of the room made that obvious. It was unoccupied however, the band of the evening opting to stay on the main stage instead. There were people dancing to the music as well, making you smile and think of the last time you danced with Yoongi under the moonlight. You wondered how he was doing and decided to text him later, after all, he was watching your houseplants for you.

Once your bellies were full of stew and dirty rice, you and Taehyung watched Jimin and Jungkook dance all around the wooden floors as you both nursed glasses of local whiskey. Taehyung hummed low in his throat and you figured now would be as good a time as any to bring up something that was pestering in your mind.

“Tae?”

“Hmm?”

“Why did you tell Yoongi about our kiss?” you asked softly. No one knew about that fact except you three, not even Jimin or Jungkook who’ve been with you both for years. Taehyung sighed, groaning softly when he pulled his arms up in a stretch.

“Confidant?” he said easily, rolling his eyes playfully when he saw your serious expression. “Okay fine. I told him about it as a tipoff.”

“A tipoff for what?” you questioned.

“After Art Walk, Yoongi called me and asked about you. He was whipped for you, extremely so. But that look you had in your eyes after we all left the elevator the night of the Cake launch, I knew you weren’t going to fall in love with him. You were pursuing him after a bad breakup Y/N, it was obvious you were drawn to Yoongi for his comforting words and wisdom. But he was persistent, so then I started talking about us, our friendship, and the kiss was mentioned in passing as a way just to get it over with. A friend trusting a friend. I think that gave him the tipoff that you were only seeing him as some sort of sanctuary. Yoongi knew it too, but he really wanted another’s opinion. And when it comes to you, who knows you better than me?” Taehyung shrugged, taking a sip of his drink.

“So it was really you that prevented me and Yoongi from getting together.” you huffed, your lips pulling up. “You conniving little shit.” you smacked his arm and he just chuckled.

“Are you mad?”

“No,” you paused, tilting your head in thought. “If you would’ve told me that a few months ago, yes. But I’m kinda glad you did. I don’t want to be in a relationship based on false emotions. I was rushing to find love, but now I know good things come to those who wait.”

“Amen to that.” Taehyung raised his glass, clinking it with yours as you both downed the rest of your whiskey. “Come dance,” he ushered you out of your seat when a slower song started playing. He pressed his chest to your back as he guided you into a slow sway, his arms draped across your waist. You rolled your eyes, allowing your hands to grip onto his biceps.

“You’ve been working out.” you commented.

“Mmhmm.” he hummed into your hair.

“Who’re you trying to impress?” you teased.

“You,” he winked and he took your slap in stride. “What? I’m serious.”

“And so am I. We’ve already talked about this.”

“Blah, blah, blah.” Taehyung mocked you, placing a kiss on your cheek. “You know you want me.”

“Only if neither of us are married by thirty-five.”

“Hey, it was thirty last time, you keep changing our contract.” Taehyung whined.

“Ugh, fine. Thirty then. Now for real, who’s the lucky person?”

“There’s a cute newbie working with the scientists,” he mumbled and you could feel the warmth of his blush rise. “He’s extremely sweet and endearing, a total fitness junkie. Him and Kookie workout sometimes. But I think he finds me intimidating and weird.”

“Is it the clothes, the elaborate makeup, or the flamboyantness do you think?” you teased and Taehyung whined behind you. “Okay, okay. Honestly, just talk to him Tae? If he doesn’t like you, your fishnets and crop-tops, your heels or your makeup then he doesn’t deserve someone as wonderful as you.”

“You’re too sweet,” Taehyung cooed, “But thank you.”

You hummed in acknowledgement, continuing to sway in place as you watched Jimin and Jungkook across the dance floor. They were entangled together, light staccato kisses being pressed between their lips as they held each other close. Your heart clenched; they looked so in love it was almost sickening, and no matter how much they teased each other or joked about having threesomes (honestly though, with Jungkook being Jungkook, you wouldn’t doubt it to be very real between them) they always ended up back together in each other’s arms. You guessed that’s what marriage entailed; always wanting to come back to the one you loved the most, the one you’d want to spend the rest of your life with.

“Well I’ll be damned.” a voice broke you out of your stupor. “Y/N L/S, is that really you?”

You looked up and you gasped, easily breaking out of Taehyung’s grasp as you both looked at the person who spoke in shock.

~*~

“Hoseok?”

“Hmm?”

“Do you think we’ll ever see each other again?”

“I’m moving to L.A., not to the moon.” the boy laying next to you chuckled, leaning over to place a tender kiss against your cheek.

“I know, but it’s still so far away, and I’ll miss you.” you admitted, a soft sigh expelling from your lips.

“Hey, look at me,” Hoseok cooed, taking one of your hands. You glanced over at him.

“I promise I’ll call, hell I’ll even write if I have to. Trust me, I’m not going to forget you Y/N.” he smiled, radiant and bright. “And after I graduate high school, I’m going to work and make enough money to move back home to be with you.”

~*~

You thought Hoseok had forgotten you. After he had left with his family, he did call, almost everyday. But as the months went on, after he had graduated, the calls came less and less, and eventually they just stopped. Oh, how you remember the longing for him to call you back, to return just one call, but he never did. It didn’t really “hurt”, after all, you both had left each other on good terms and it was a fleeting high school relationship. One filled with shy kisses and passing notes in class. You knew Hoseok must’ve been busy, making a living in America would certainly be a good enough excuse to forget to call. But he was still your first love, and his actions and loss in a promise made you guard the promises you chose to make, keeping those words tight and close until you knew you could trust another to not break them like Hoseok had. Even when Seokjin came along, the first man you were with after Hoseok, you still kept your guard up, albeit less than before.

But of all things, you didn’t expect to see him standing in front of you, in a musty saloon in the middle of nowhere in Arizona, many years later.

“Hoseok?” you questioned, carefully taking a step forward.

He looked completely different from what you’ve remembered him to be. You always saw the eighteen year-old in your mind whenever you thought of him; mousey brown hair, scattered acne, gangly limbs, bright eyes and a smile to match. The man in front of you had dark red hair, matching the mountains of the desert. His face was tan, smooth, clear, and his arms and legs were taut with muscle and a few scattered scars. But you knew that smile anywhere, and those bright eyes haven’t aged a day, but still, you didn’t want to believe it was him.

“Who’s my favorite Backstreet Boy?” you asked suddenly and Taehyung giggled behind you. Hoseok rolled his eyes.

“Really, the security question Y/N? C’mon, it’s me.” he tried again, taking a step closer to you.

“Then the answer should be easy.” you challenged.

“Y/N,” Taehyung shook his head with a chuckle, moving in front of you to give your friend a hug. Hoseok chuckled as Taehyung bounded into his arms, holding him close.

“Good to see you too Tae.” he ruffled the younger’s hair, looking at you expectantly. “Don’t I get a hug from you, Y/N?”

“Not until you answer the question.” you were persistent, and you must’ve spoken a little too loud, because Jimin and Jungkook came wandering over.

“Is there a problem here?” Jungkook asked defensively, wrapping a protective arm around your shoulder. Hoseok’s eyes followed Jungkook’s grip, a dark flash of something passing through them before they turned bright again.

“Stand down lover boy,” Taehyung chuckled. “This is Hoseok, a childhood friend from high school.”

“Oh! Nice to meet you!” Jimin, the ever loving man that he was, held out his hand and Hoseok took it with a smile.

“Y/N, this is ridiculous-”

“The security questions weren’t ridiculous in high school.” you countered.

“That was eight years ago!” Hoseok laughed, shaking his head. “And us three made those up in case a zombie apocalypse broke out and someone was trying to impersonate us.”

“If you could remember all that you should know the answer.” you raised your eyebrow and Hoseok sighed, pursing his lips as he stared at Jungkook’s hand again, the boy’s arm still wrapped around you protectively.

“Your favorite Backstreet Boy is Nick Carter, because he could dance really well. You used to tease me about him being a better dancer than me just to rile me up.” Hoseok smirked and you sighed in defeat

“Now c’mere,” Hoseok held his arms open and you moved into him, allowing his arms to wrap around you.

Damnit, he was warm, and he smelled so good. You relaxed in hold involuntarily, your guard dropping.

“I’ve missed you. So, so much.” he whispered into your ear. You pulled away from him with a small smile.

“I’ve missed you too, but you have a lot of explaining to do.”

~*~

“You have every right to be upset-”

“Damn right I do.” you agreed, watching as the boys danced around while you and Hoseok took refuge at the table. Taehyung ushered the other two out to dance, knowing you’d want to talk with Hoseok alone and after a few shots, they were more than willing to do so as more party-goers came out to dance to the country twang as the night grew darker.

“You broke your promise.” you continued, your voice a little softer this time. “You, sir, are the cause of a lot of trust issues.”

“Guilty,” Hoseok chuckled, and his laugh was contagious. “After graduation, I knew I didn’t want to stay in L.A.”

“Why’s that?”

“It was too artificial, too showy. But I loved the desert, I loved the mountains.” Hoseok eyes lit up. “I taught dance while I was there though, saved money and bought my own car and I just drove and drove until the car broke down at a Native American reservation about fifty miles from here, over the river.” he paused, biting his lip.

“Hobi?” you questioned, and the corners of his lips turned up at the use of your old nickname.

“Most of the money I saved was originally going towards a plane ticket, to go back home to Korea. To see you.” he admitted. “But something called me here. I couldn’t let it go, so I took the risk and I’ve never been happier. The population is less than 5,000, quiet and local. And I work as a river guide, taking groups down the rapids for hours at a time. I even do multi day excursions, just exploring the flora and fauna and meeting wonderful people as we camp under the stars.”

“Well, that explains the muscles.” you chuckled. Hoseok sighed, reaching out to take your hand in his.

“There hasn’t been a day that’s gone by where I didn’t think about calling you. About calling your parents or Taehyung when one day your number just didn’t go through anymore. It’s hard out here though, signal’s are always going out.”

“When it was in though, why didn’t you?” you asked. “I missed you, Hoseok. You were my first love, but more than that, you were my friend too.”

“I don’t know why,” he answered honestly. “But I can tell you I missed you too. So much. I saw you in the cactus flowers, the stars in the sky, but none of them compare to you now. You’re so much more beautiful than I remembered you to be.” you chuckled, shaking your head at him.

“You still have your way with words.” you teased.

“No, I genuinely mean it Y/N.” he gripped your hand tighter. “You look more…relaxed, more glowing and bright. It’s gorgeous, you’re gorgeous.”

“Oh, stop.” you blushed, avoiding his gaze.

“I won’t, I have seven years of complimenting to catch up on. I know I’ve broken my promise of coming back, but I never stopped thinking about you in the corner of my mind. Can you forgive me for hurting you? For breaking your trust?” you’ve never heard Hoseok beg before, but you guessed this would as close as you can get to it. He looked so hopeful. You sighed, picking up your drink and taking a tentative sip as Hoseok was practically falling off the edge of his seat.

“I’ll forgive, but I won’t forget Mr. Jung.” you smirked and Hoseok’s smile permeated your heart and warmth spread through your belly, but you blamed the whiskey for that.

“I’ll take what I can get.” Hoseok chuckled, his thumb gently rubbing over the back of your hand. “So, what’ve you been doing on the other side of the world while I’ve been scaling the white waters?”

“Well, remember Tae and I’s dream of having our own company?”

“Nah, shut up. You guys didn’t.” Hoseok exclaimed, his smile growing as you pulled up your company’s website on your phone, showing him the PR photos of you and the three boys posing with the Cake palette, each one’s eyeshadows depicting a different look with a mirage of colors.

“We did.” you giggled as Hoseok scrolled through the products with awe in his eyes.

“I can’t believe it, I’m so proud!” he said, pushing your phone back to you. “Was that Taehyung’s idea? The whole food/cake thing?”

“Actually, it was mine. Our top seller too. These were Tae’s. And Jungkook’s and Jimin’s.” you puffed your chest out with pride, pointing at all of the products.

“Well I’ll be damned then. It’s beautiful.” Hoseok gave you a thumbs up. “But why is that the only thing you’ve created? Clearly you have the talent.”

“I’ve been having a lot of stress lately. With the marketing, the projections, worrying about finances with Kookie and promotional and social media with Jimin, and allowing Taehyung to experiment and create at his own free will, I guess I lost my creative spark.” you admitted with a sigh. “That’s why we’re all here. Taehyung booked us this vacation to help us relax and get the creativity flowing again, because if we don’t have another sale like Cake, we’re slowly going to go under.”

Hoseok hummed softly in understanding.

“I guess there’s also the ‘second project’ syndrome that’s messing with my mind too. I’m afraid that whatever I design and produce with the boys won’t live up to the Cake palette’s hype. Cake sold out completely in Korea in two days, and two weeks later they were sold out internationally. Our workers were doing overtime to keep up with sales.” you continued. “I just feel stuck. Even though this place makes me feel free, I know I’ll have to return to that limbo when it’s done, and that scares me.”

“Y’know what you need?” Hoseok told you.

“What?”

“A sense of freedom.”

~*~

That’s what prompted you and the boys to stay in Hoseok’s house for the remainder of your vacation. His house was comfy enough for the five of you, and the homey touches did make you feel better than staying in an artificial hotel.

Hoseok helped you all let go.

Hoseok took you all to see the secrets of the mountains and canyons, the river guiding you down trails of adrenaline and clarity. The hiking brought you beautiful horizons, the cactuses providing nourishment from the source, and the river brought you splashing wars and chicken fights, of gentle floating in ravines and laying out on the red sandbars, but it also brought you adventure as the rapids licked your cheeks and flew you over rocks and mini waterfalls. And the rocks aided you all, providing stepping stones, glimpses into the wildlife’s habitat, and great heights to fall into deep pockets of water. Jimin documented it all, only posting the best pictures of your vacation to your SMS, much to Taehyung’s dissatisfaction (”Hyung! I don’t have makeup on, you can’t post that!” “But Taehyung, none of us are, we’re all barefaced.” “Yeah but you guys actually look good without makeup.��).

As Hoseok took you out more and more, your trust in him began to grow again. He showed you friendship, he showed you consistency, he showed you attentiveness and honesty, giving you his everything and anything. He jumped off the cliffs with you into the waters below, he showed you the scorpions and lizards with careful hands, gave you prickly pears and their juice when there wasn’t enough for the five of you, and he fought with you in the water against the other boys, comradery and unity forming between you both again. You both fell back into the friendship you thought you lost, and Hoseok made your heart feel light. You trusted him, from his reoccurring actions and signs of love and clarity. And you had forgiven him, understanding now how easy it would be to isolate yourself into the land of red rocks and sand, living without a care in the world as the sun stroked your back and dried your hair into knots and waves.

The two weeks seemed to go by too fast, but you knew it happened from the looks of your sun-kissed skin and water-logged locks. A few scars and bruises also joined your skin, caused by falling out of the raft on the rapids and landing on hidden rocks beneath the water. You found yourself and the boys lounging out poolside on the last night of your vacation while Hoseok cleaned up the dinner of smoked barbeque and margaritas. You were laying out on one of Hoseok’s pool chairs with your sketch book, drawing the mountains and setting sun while watching Taehyung and Jungkook fight in the pool. Jimin sat next to you, flipping through the pictures he took that day.

“Y/N?” Jimin called. You looked up at him over the edge of your sunglasses before you heard him snap a picture. He smiled, looking up at you with sweet eyes.

“Beautiful.” he told you, showing you the picture. Your sunglasses and floppy sun hat blocked half of your face, but the edge of a smile laced your lips as Jimin captured your natural expression. You could see the base colors on your sketch pad, your coverup only barely revealing the bikini top you wore with your shorts and flip flops. Your hair was wavy from the chlorinated water you were swimming in earlier, and your cheeks were pink and speckled with sun freckles.

“You really are talented with a camera Jiminie.” you complimented him.

“It’s all you sweetie, just an au-natural Y/N. Beautiful in her natural state.” Jimin’s words made you blush, normally he wasn’t this foreword with you, his flirtation usually just reserved for Jungkook. “I’m so posting this as a teaser that we’re working creatively again.”

“Go ahead Jimin, I won’t whine about it like some people.” you said with a chuckle.

“Heard that!” Taehyung yelled before he was shoved underneath the water again by Jungkook.

“I agree with Jimin.” Hoseok was suddenly behind you, making you jump in surprise. “You look beautiful with Arizona written all over you.”

When Hoseok told you that he would be catching up on his compliments he wasn’t kidding, giving you at least one every day. You didn’t know if it was because he felt guilty or really just wanted you to feel beautiful. Whatever it was though, you appreciated it immensely, his words doing wonders to your ego and self confidence.

“I wanna show you something.” Hoseok told you. His eyes had that spark in them, and you could tell he was eager to drag you out for the rest of the night.

“Okay.”

Hoseok grinned, grabbing your hand and dragging you out the back gate of his home, taking you up the side of the mountain in his backyard. You giggled when he became too excited, almost falling off the side of the red rock with a sheepish smile, heading your advice to go just a little slower. You hiked up the path until the sun had set, following Hoseok until he pulled you away from the main path, following the curves of the rocks until he led you to a tunnel.

“Hoseok…”

“Hmm? Are you scared?” Hoseok teased, playfully pinching your sides.

“It’s really dark,” you said hesitantly, peering into the hole in the rock formation.

“C’mon, it’s safe enough, it’s like a slide.” he smiled, sitting down on the sandy gravel. “I’ll even hold you if you want. Please? It’ll be so worth it.” he held his hand out to you, the other patting the open space between his legs. You bit your lip, your eyes flickering between his expectant stare and the darkness of the tunnel. With a huff you joined him on the ground, grabbing his arms and wrapping them around you like a safety belt.

“If I die tonight, I’m blaming you Jung Hoseok.”

He chuckled, inching you both forward until you were at the mouth of the tunnel.

“Ready?” he asked.

“Ready.” you nodded. Suddenly, you were sliding down an endless tunnel. You could hear Hoseok’s joyful laughter over your screams of shock and then as soon as you started, you stopped, your eyes bulging at what you saw.

You were in some sort of crater in the middle of the mountain, because you could see the sky and the stars above you, creating a ceiling for the tall rock that surrounded you. But there was an oasis in the crater. It couldn’t have been more than fifteen feet wide, but around it’s bank there were little sprouts and cactuses growing, and an old blanket laying across the ground.

“Worth it?” Hoseok asked and you could hear the smugness in his voice.

“I don’t know, I think I bruised my butt on the slide down.” you joked, standing and brushing the dirt off your clothes. You moved closer to the oasis, gently running your fingers over the surface of the water; it was warmer than you thought it’d be.

“A lot of frogs breed here, honestly I think it’s the only place the tadpoles can survive in in a twenty mile radius.” Hoseok commented, crouching down next to you.

“How’d you find this place?” you asked.

“Hiking accident,” he winked. “I fell down the tunnel, slipped on some loose rock and ended up here. It was pretty in the day, but at night, you can see everything. C’mon.”

He took you to the blanket, stretching out and laying against it with his hands supporting his head. You laid down next to him, looking up at the amounts of stars shining above you. The moon added a glow to your vision, the entire little room basking a light blue haze around you both.

“You can see everything. There’s the North star, and the Little Dipper connecting off of it,” Hoseok pointed to the sky and you followed his finger as he named every constellation you could see. You just watched him with love in your eyes; his passion was evident in the way he spoke about the stars and the region and you honestly couldn’t imagine him being anywhere else but here in this small desert town. When his voice grew silent you focused back on him and saw he was staring at you now, just like how you were absentmindedly staring at him. You blushed, chuckling softly but you didn’t look away.

“You were staring.” Hoseok pointed out.

“I know.”

“Are you still infatuated with my good looks?” he teased, turning onto his side to better face you. You turned onto your side too, making the tips of your noises almost touch.

“Yeah, you wish.” you giggled. Hoseok gave you a half-hearted chuckle in return, his lips falling into a frown.

“I’ve been thinking a lot these past few days.” Hoseok admitted.

“About?”

“About us.” he said easily. “About what we would’ve become if I hadn’t moved. About what we would’ve been if you came out here. About what would’ve happened if we somehow, someway, stayed together.”

“Hoseok…”

“I don’t regret my actions, not at all. But sometimes I wonder what we could’ve been. Haven’t you?”

You squirmed, playing with your hands as you thought. Sure, you’ve missed Hoseok, immensely so. But you never thought about what could’ve been. The thought didn’t cross your mind after building the business and dealing with love in pain and love in patience back-to-back.

“You’re hesitating,” Hoseok chuckled, stopping your fidgeting movements so you could focus entirely on him. “Why?”

“I guess I have some issues when it comes to talking about romantic relationships now.” you chuckled. “I’ve had two complicated relationships with two different people in the past year and a half, and I don’t want to hurt you.”

“Y/N, it’s just me, I’m not going to get hurt by what you say. Just be honest. Don’t you trust me enough to do that? I feel offended.” Hoseok laughed and you shook your head quickly.

“No! No that’s not it! After these past weeks, I’ve grown to trust you again Hoseok. Completely with all my heart. If I’m being honest…I hadn’t really thought about us and what could’ve been. I was too busy with the business and the past love complications. I’m sorry.” you sighed. Hoseok just smiled, taking your hand in his.

“Thank you for being honest, and I’m not that surprised really. It’s been seven long years of growth for the both of us. I wouldn’t expect you to think about me that way anymore, but a guy can hope sometimes,” Hoseok laughed and the air around you both still seemed light, and for that you were grateful.

“But still, why so hesitant when talking about love? Honesty should always be the forefront, and that shouldn’t make you uneasy.” Hoseok pestered on.

“I guess I don’t trust myself enough to admit my feelings to myself or others for that matter. Really, I just want to know I actually love a person first before I start trusting myself and my emotions with them. Y’know?”

“Oh Y/N,” Hoseok chuckled, his smile lighting up your soul. “Trust is always built first to allow love to grow. I trust you…so much. You’re honest, you’re reliable, and your heart is so open for love and friendship that it makes mine pound. When you say you love someone or something, you show it to your full capacity. I can see it in the way you look at Taehyung, Jimin, Jungkook, and with me. And that’s worth everything to me, even more so that the actual feeling of love. And if I can see that, then everyone else can too. So allow yourself to trust and be honest with the people you care about, because they can see the truth within you too and will appreciate you more for talking about it.” Hoseok spewed, his eyes light and understanding.

You smiled, realizing the true extent of what Hoseok’s words meant. How trust was built for love, and how his trust equated to his love for you. You suddenly brought him in for hug, making him chuckle.

“Aww, Y/N.” Hoseok cooed, hugging you close to him.

“I love you.” you told him, pulling back to see his reaction. Hoseok’s smile just grew and he placed a gentle kiss on your forehead.

“And I love you.” he giggled.

“Thank you, for making this trip even more amazing than it already was.” Hoseok waved his hand absentmindedly.

“It was my pleasure. Besides, giving up a moment to hang out with you and Tae again? I wouldn’t miss it for the world.”

“It’s just sad we have to leave you behind.” you pouted.

“You’re not, not really. I’ll always be here.” he said, placing his hand on your chest over where your heart was. You smiled, placing your hand over his chest as well.

“And I’ll be here with you too.” Hoseok smiled, placing a light kiss against your lips.

It wasn’t more than a peck, like how a mother would kiss her child, but it held so much for you. So much love and understanding and light that you allowed Hoseok to do it again, and again. Until the pecks turned into a full kiss, your lips sliding together as you kissed under the lights of the stars. Hoseok pulled you close, holding you like you were the most precious thing in the world to him. His hands gripped your hips, firm and steady to keep you from physically swooning. You giggled when Hoseok bit your lip, pulling away from you with his signature heart-shaped smile.

“Just like old times, right?” he teased and you giggled, nodding your head.

“Just like old times.”

“Maybe I’ll come out one day and visit. I can’t leave this place though, the desert is my home now.” Hoseok said, the tips of his fingers running over the top hem of your shorts, occasionally brushing the skin of your back.

“Please? We missed you more than you know.” you chuckled.

“I promise,” he said, placing a parting kiss on your cheeks. “You’re going to make someone feel very loved someday Y/N. And you’re going to get that same love back, tenfold.”

“It’s nice of you to think so.” you laughed, playfully shoving his shoulder.

“I know so,” he countered, his eyes growing a little wider as he spoke. “My mom always told me this whenever I mentioned love; ‘The people who trust the most, always love the most, therefore, they will always find someone who loves like they do. Because the ones who love the most, deserve someone who can keep up with them and their love for the world.’.” Hoseok paused, allowing his eyes to roam over your face, to stare into your eyes one more time before he let you go. “And honey, you deserve that kind of loving.”

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duggardata · 5 years ago

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Nurie Rodrigues is Courting Nathan Keller!

Get Your Analysis (and Predictions) Here.

ICYMI... On Monday, July 1, 2019, Jill Rodrigues announced that her daughter, Nurie, is courting Anna (Keller) Duggar’s younger brother, Nathan Keller. We are all looking forward to keeping tabs on the relationship!

Nurie Katelin is the eldest daughter of Jill + David Rodrigues. At Age 20, she is the first of Rodrigues to enter a courtship. Her boyfriend, Nathan, isn’t the first in his family. He’s the seventh child of Mike + Suzette Keller, who’ve previously had three daughters—Esther, Anna, and Priscilla—marry after a strict quiverfull (QF) courtship. (Three Keller Offspring have also left the QF faith, and pursued secular relationships. Those siblings’ data isn’t factored into this Post.)

After the jump, I’ll calculate a potential relationship timeline (i.e., Engagement, Marriage, Firstborn) for Nurie + Nathan, based on data and averages from the following sources—

The Kellers (Esther, Anna, and Priscilla)

The Duggars (Who Jill Clearly Idolizes), and

The Kellers + All The Predictor Families

... that last one will be sort of like a Fundie Average. It’ll be based on data from the Kellers and all Predictor Families—Duggar, Bates, and Maxwell—taken as a collective whole.

Read on!

When Did Nurie + Nathan Start Courting?

Before we can proceed, we need an answer to this. Unfortunately, neither the couple nor Jill has revealed the exact ‘courtposal’ date as of July 8, 2019. We have to estimate... Let’s start with this Instagram Post by Jill, on July 4, 2019, which provides the following information—

Nathan sent Nurie flowers “about 3 Weeks Ago” to “signify[] the start of their courtship.”

Shortly after that, the Rodrigues Family traveled to Georgia for Hosanna + Timothy Noble’s wedding.

In Georgia, the Rodrigueses spent “a couple of days” with Nathan, and Nathan gave Nuria a heart necklace and more flowers to make it “even more official.”

Breaking this down a bit... Per Jill, the first bouquet of flowers “signif[ied] the start of [the] courtship.” So, that’s apparently the courtposal date. (If Nurie + Nathan ever redefined this as the day he gave her the necklace in–person, I’d go with that, though... It seems like the more natural start. But, for now, Jill’s word is all we have to go on.)

Moving on to Bullet Point 1... Exactly 3 Weeks Prior to the Post (July 4, 2019) would be June 13, 2019. Jill said it was “about” 3 Weeks Prior, though—so, I think it’s safe to assume that it wasn’t exactly 3 Weeks Prior. Let’s assume it’s 2.5–3.5 Weeks Prior, which gives us a working range of June 8–17, 2019.

Edit: Oops, I was mistaken. That Post was actually made on July 2, 2019, not July 4. My bad!

From Bullet Point 2, we know that the ‘courtposal’ happened before Hosanna (Plath) + Timothy Noble’s wedding. Incidentally, another one of Jill’s IG Posts indicates (on July 3, 2019) that that wedding happened “last Saturday.” That seems to indicate a wedding date of June 22 or 29, 2019, depending on how you interpret it. And, after a bit of Googling, it’s clear that it was June 29, not the 22nd... A wedding cake baker lists “Hosanna Plath” as one of her brides here, with a wedding date of June 29, 2019. Sadly though, this doesn’t really help narrow down the courtposal date. Damn!

Since we can’t narrow it down more... Let’s just go with June 12, 2019, since it’s in the middle of the working range, but not exactly 3 Weeks Prior to July 4.

When Will He Propose?

Okay. We’re assuming that they started courting on June 12, 2019. Based on that, when might Nathan propose? Let’s take a look at the data...

Keller Data. Unfortunately, I didn’t find any detail online about Esther + John’s courtship or engagement. So, we are left only with Anna (Keller) Duggar’s and Priscilla (Keller) Waller’s courtships, to work with. Anna + Josh began courting in January 2008 and got engaged on June 23, 2008—so, their courtship lasted ~159 Days. As for Priscilla, she and David started courting on September 20, 2011, and he proposed on November 16, 2011, after only 57 Days. Taking the average, it’s 108 Days (w/ a SD of 72 Days). If Nurie + Nathan’s courtship is a typical length for the Kellers (Mean ± 1 SD), he will propose between July 17—December 9, 2019, with September 28, 2019 being exactly average.

Duggar Data. Jill loves the Duggars, so maybe she’ll push for Nurie + Nathan’s relationship to progress at a Duggar–like pace. What is that, for courtship? At this point, an exactly Duggar–typical courtship lasts 124 Days. However, they also vary by a SD of 95 Days. So, if Nurie + Nathan are Duggar–typical, they’d get engaged between July 11, 2019—January 17, 2020, and October 14, 2019 would be exactly average.

Collective Data. Looking at all of the courtships from the Keller, Duggar, Bates, and Maxwell Families... They last 166 Days (w/ a SD of 134 Days) on average. Currently, the Shortest Courtship record is held by Chris + Anna Marie Maxwell (~27 Days), while the Longest Courtship record is held by Michaela + Brandon Keilen (469 Days). Based on this data, it’s expected that Nurie + Nathan would get engaged between July 14, 2019—April 6, 2020, with November 24, 2019—shortly before Thanksgiving—being 100% typical. They will set a new record if Nathan proposes before July 9, 2019, or after September 23, 2020.

When Will They Get Married?

How about the engagement? How long will that last? Let’s start by assuming they get engaged on the exactly–average for each data set, above...

Keller Data. Again, no data from Esther. We’ll have to make do with just Anna and Priscilla. Josh + Anna got engaged on June 23, 2008, and got married on September 26, 2008—and thus, were engaged for 95 Days. Meanwhile, sister Priscilla’s engagement lasted only 80 Days; they married on February 4, 2012, after a November 16, 2011 proposal. Taking the average, it is 88 Days, with a SD of 11 Days. If Nurie + Nathan are Keller–typical, they’ll have a September 28, 2019 proposal, and marry 77–99 Days (Mean ± 1 SD) Later—i.e., between December 14, 2019—January 5, 2020. Exactly average would be December 25, 2019. Usually, I’d round to the closest Friday or Saturday... But, having a wedding on Christmas Day actually sounds like something Jill might do.

Duggar Data. As of July 2019, the typical Duggar Engagement lasts 99 Days (with a SD of 16 Days). If Nurie + Nathan are Duggar–typical, he will propose on October 14, 2019. If they continue to take after the Duggars, they’d marry 83–115 Days Later (Mean ± 1 SD), between January 5–February 6, 2020. An exactly Duggar–typical wedding fall on January 21, 2020. Moving that to the closest Friday or Saturday... Saturday, January 18, 2020.

Collective Data. Looking at all of the Duggar, Bates, Maxwell, and Kellers that have married, so far, the absolute average engagement lasts 113 Days (with a SD of 39 Days). If Nurie + Nathan take after the collective, they’ll be engaged on November 24, 2019, and be married 74–152 Days (Mean ± 1 SD) Later—or, between February 6—April 24, 2020. Exactly typical would be Monday, March 16, 2020. Rounding to the nearest weekend... Saturday, March 14, 2020.

When Will Rodrigues–Keller #1 Arrive?

Okay, what about babies? When can we expect their Firstborn? Again, we’ll start by assuming a totally average length courtship and engagement, by the standards above...

Keller Data. For this category, we have data for all 3 QF Kellers—Josh + Anna, Priscilla + David, and Esther + John. (Yippee!) The three sisters had their first child 337, 406, and 440 Days into their marriage, respectively. Averaging that, it’s 408 Day, with a SD of 32 Days. If Nurie turns out to be like her sisters–in–law, and marries on Christmas Day, her Firstborn will arrive between January 4—March 9, 2021. Exactly typical would be February 5, 2021.

Duggar Data. The Duggars tend to procreate a bit faster. (Jill will definitely be pleased if Nurie can keep up!) As of July 2019, the typical Duggar Couple will become first–time parents a mere 367 Days after marrying—but, it varies by a SD of 133 Days. If Nurie + Nathan marry on January 18, 2020 and prove to be Duggar typical, they will welcome their Firstborn between September 17, 2020—June 1, 2021. Exactly typical would be January 19, 2021. (Not January 20, because 2020 is a Leap Year!)

Collective Data. Looking at all the Married Second–Generation Parents among the Duggar, Bates, Maxwell, and Keller Families, it is typical to welcome a first child 397 Days into marriage, with a SD of 112 Days. If Nurie + Nathan follow this collective’s data, they’ll marry on March 14, 2020, and welcome their first child 285–509 Days Later, between December 24, 2020—August 5, 2021. An exactly typical first birth would occur on April 15, 2021.

TL;DR—

Here’s when Nurie + Nathan will reach each milestone, according to the Keller Data—

Proposal September 28, 2019

Wedding December 25, 2019

Firstborn February 5, 2021

... and, according to the Duggar Data—

Proposal October 14, 2019

Wedding January 18, 2020

Firstborn January 19, 2021

... and, according to the Collective (Duggar, Bates, Maxwell, and Keller) Data—

Proposal November 24, 2019

Wedding March 14, 2020

Firstborn April 15, 2021

Truly, fascinating stuff! Can’t wait to see how it plays out.

#nurie and nathan #rodrigues #keller #courtship

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