#and south carolina is no less humid but from where i am to the beach it takes at least 4-6

[gobbluthbutagirl]

i could live in tucson and i would literally be fine. you just have to make sure you stay hydrated. but 95+ degrees fahrenheit in the southeast is stepping outside and immediately drowning and smothering at the same time because god hates you and wants to kill you

[kansascityhappenings]

Joe’s Weather Blog: What we know and don’t know about Florence (WED-9/12)

I’m going to try to simplify things a bit with this weather blog because now, as I told you last week…Florence has become the biggest news story of the week and the biggest weather story of the year. There are now some curve balls being thrown from Florence…and one of the biggest ones is where will Florence come inland and stay inland. That is actually becoming an unknown right now. A couple of days ago I was focusing some information on the Wilmington, NC area…and that, to me still seems relevant BUT all the momentum of the storm now (moving at close to 15 MPH) will be fading as the storm tries to come ashore…as a result now we may be looking at a storm that hugs the coastline…perhaps shifts and moves farther towards the SW (unusual) and wallows around for 2 days near the Carolinas.

There are obvious longer term (3-6 day)) issues with these possibilities. II have a feeling that we really won’t have a strong feel for a possible landfall till later tomorrow as we judge the forward speed and see if it has enough momentum to barrel ashore.

Back home in KC…no real changes and very little to no rain coming…perhaps a random shower here or there over the next 7 days…but nothing concrete to hang your hat on…just a persistent pattern of warmth and dry weather (mostly) for the next 10+ days it appears.

Forecast:

Today: Sunny with some clouds around and highs in the lower 80s

Tonight: Fair and pleasant with lows in the 60s

Thursday: Same but you may start to notice the humidity creeping up a bit with highs well into the mid 80s

Friday: A bit more muggy too with highs 85-90°

Discussion:

Now it’s time for the curveballs and the data last night is indeed throwing some interesting adjustments into my thinking. Here is what we know.

Florence is still a major hurricane.

It’s been vacillating in strength from 130-140 MPH for the last 24 hours or so. It’s a potent storm…no doubt about it but it may never make category 5 strength despite favorable water temperature conditions and a favorable atmospheric set-up. These two factors may well change though later Thursday into the weekend for the storm’s “health”

Here’s one of the questions about the storm…as the steering currents collapse as the storm comes near the coast will it even come ashore?

There is a “weird” phenomena that I’ve noticed over the past years with slow moving hurricanes. They sometimes avoid coming onshore. It’s almost as if the land repels the storm’s core. I’m not sure there is a scientific reason for this…perhaps it has to do with frictional effects of the storm’s circulation and land interacting with each other. I’ve noticed this with storms that “wobble” unexpectedly as they try to come ashore in the northern reaches in the Gulf of Mexico too.

Also…as this happens with crawling storm motions the hurricanes circulation starts getting disrupted because about half the storms circulation is over land…and removed from the water and the better “gas” for the hurricane engine.

The EURO model and to some extent the GFS model are showing these weird motions to the storms arrival ashore.

The GFS model which is still suffering from over-strengthening the storm’s core has this look for Friday afternoon.

Remember the worst part of a hurricane are towards the north and northeast of the storm’s center…so this would be a coastal onslaught for areas near and north of Wilmington, NC.

Now look at the forecast from the GFS for 24 hours later

Notice the SW movement of the storm…as if it’s trying NOT to come ashore. Now the worst onslaught of surge and wind is drifting towards the south…towards the far south part of NC…and not SC is coming more into play.

With such a slow storm motion…as the winds churn up the waves…and we’re talking 20-40 foot monster waves near and offshore…the waters will be “upwelled” and the surface waters will cool down rather significantly.

This will alter the “premium” gas for the storm’s engine to something that would be less than “regular” gas. This will be an issue for the storms health. That plus the half the storms circulation being over land is not a good thing for a storms “engine”.

There is another issue that some but not many meteorologists are NOT talking about…as the storm comes closer to land, especially starting on Friday…wind shear will start ripping at the storms circulation…and that may be a bigger issue in the long run for the storms health.

I’ve had my suspicions that it’s been undergoing some shear since yesterday because, at times the satellite presentation of the storm’s core looks a bit ragged. Well this shear is forecast to increase more.

One model that shows this is called the SHIPS model. There is a lot of mumbo jumbo on the next model output but I’ve highlighted two lines for you…one is the time line…starting 60 hours into the future which on this computer run would be later Friday afternoon/evening…and the wind shear ripping at the storm. Under 10 knots of shear is doable for a storm…over 20 kts…is a different thing and this too will toy with the storm’s health I think.

So sometime on Friday…especially later in the day…assuming the storm is near or off the coast…we’ll have a storm that will be feeling the effects of having half the circulation over land…waters that are being churned and upwelled because of the wave action…and increasing shear ripping at the storms structure. All reasons for a storm that should lose, at least some of it’s punch.

Now the problems…and there are many.

The storms slow movement, regardless of where it goes means some of the coastal areas…large swathes of the NC coast…will undergoes high and low tides and storm surge waters together for a prolonged period of time. For most landfalling hurricanes…it’s one tide cycle…either high tide (worse) or low tide (better)…this may be a couple or more. That increases the erosion on the beaches and just because a hurricane may weaken dramatically in the wind department…it takes time for the wave action to start dropping off…in other words the strong winds drop but there is a lag of waves/surge dropoffs. We saw this with Katrina…the winds dropped significantly as it came ashore but there was so much water built up and moving that that aspect didn’t drop off.

Rainfall…who exactly gets the most…well there are some adjustments that need to be thought about…and for parts of NC perhaps some good news…but for parts of NC and SC perhaps some bad news…

Here is the EURO portrayal.

Repeated bands of heavy tropical rains stream ashore from the circulation as it wanders near the coastline…this brings the worst flooding more towards the eastern part of the state and actually helps the western part of the state compared to a few days ago. This would reduce the “lifting” in the mountainous areas for at least several days and refocus the worst flooding towards and near the coastline.

Notice how even GA comes into play.

Just the shear amount of water falling from the skies with this will be incredible.

All told, Hurricane Harvey dumped about 25 Trillion gallons of rainfall on Texas and Louisiana … the current GFS has about 10 Trillion gallons over the Carolinas.

Area affected by the most extreme rain seems to be smaller w/Florence but remains to be seen over next 7-days. pic.twitter.com/Ls3dmi933t

— Ryan Maue | weathermodels.com (@RyanMaue) September 12, 2018

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How are we getting data to input in the models to help us with this forecast? Well there are several ways. For the last few days many of the weather offices east of the MS River have been sending up two extra weather balloons each day. Typically these go up at 7AM/7PM…but now there are additional ones at 1PM and 1AM. This extra atmospheric information is fed into the the model data.

In addition one of the best ways is through recon data. Airplanes fly around the circulation and through the circulation gathering data. They actually release dropsondes that fall through the outer circulation of the storm to get an idea of the atmosphere around the storm. Here is an image from the recent recon this morning…look for all the “pipe-looking” objects on the map…those are the dropsondes going down towards the surface from the flight level of the aircraft.

The plane left FL and is returning to FL as of 8:25 AM this morning (CDT)

Check out these pictures from a recon flight a couple of days ago as they flew right into the eye of the storm…note when they get there the structure…”stadium effect” of the eye where the are huge clouds…almost like a bowl, around the middle of the storm.

Footage of #HurricaneFlorence2018 from today’s @53rdWRS @AirForceReserve Hurricane Hunter mission. pic.twitter.com/kTEm19C3CO

— Hurricane Hunters (@53rdWRS) September 11, 2018

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The HOPE is that all this data will result in better model input and better output.

We’ll need it because there are more curveballs coming I think into the weekend with Florence IF those steering currents collapse as expected.

Yesterday we talked about these ERC’s or Eyewall Replacement Cycles. There are more of these coming too…perhaps one today. IF you missed yesterday’s blog…these occur as the hurricane reorganizes every so often. On the plus side the storms winds (at the core) drop off somewhat. On the negative side the storms winds expand to cover a larger area.

Big news: #HurricaneFlorence is going through another eyewall replacement cycle. The storm just finished one cycle yesterday, where the size of the eye doubled. We could be seeing another expansion of the eye with this next cycle and look at that monstrous eye at the end of loop. pic.twitter.com/rBdrfjFFcH

— Michael Ventrice (@MJVentrice) September 12, 2018

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Many records may fall from this storm…including pressure records…

Barometric pressure readings have been kept in #Wilmington since 1871. The lowest pressure ever measured here occurred in Hurricane Floyd back in 1999. Could #Florence break this record?

More on Wilmington's low pressure records at https://t.co/qP533PNyBl #ncwx pic.twitter.com/aODu0LuE4L

— NWS Wilmington NC (@NWSWilmingtonNC) September 11, 2018

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Then there are the rainfall records that are in jeopardy with the storm…from VA to GA.

I’ll leave you with this…and this blog has gotten long…

FLORENCE FOCUS: NOAA's #GOES16 powerful camera zoomed into the menacing eye of #HurricaneFlorence this afternoon, Sept. 11, 2018. @NHC_Atlantic says life-threatening #StormSurge possible along both #NorthCarolina & #SouthCarolina coasts, followed by inland #flooding. pic.twitter.com/J9M6xfIRSS

— NOAA Satellites PA (@NOAASatellitePA) September 11, 2018

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Note the “mesovorticies” spinning around within the eyes structure. This was from yesterday.

OK that’s enough. More on the storm surge impacts tomorrow as the track hopefully is clearer.

Feature photo is from Tedd Scofield (@teddscofield)

Joe

from FOX 4 Kansas City WDAF-TV | News, Weather, Sports https://fox4kc.com/2018/09/12/joes-weather-blog-what-we-know-and-dont-know-about-florence-wed-9-12/

from Kansas City Happenings https://kansascityhappenings.wordpress.com/2018/09/12/joes-weather-blog-what-we-know-and-dont-know-about-florence-wed-9-12/

[gillespialfredoe01806ld]

Kindred Cities: Affordable Alternatives to Your Favorite Pricey Places

fergregory/iStock; deberarr/iStock; realtor.com

America’s premier cities seem to have it all: Instagrammable park and city views, edgy bars, oodles of culture, a vibrant and weird street life, shops that sell cookie dough by the scoop. But all that awesomeness comes at a steep price. The harsh reality: Buying or renting into urban meccas like New York, San Francisco, or Denver is increasingly out of reach for many folks.

That’s why so many city-centric millennials, empty nesters, and everyone in between are finding themselves in a gut-wrenching double bind: Should they continue to fork over ludicrously high portions of their paycheck for housing, or throw in the towel and decamp to the suburbs?

Cue the sad violins.

But wait, there’s another option! Why not search out affordable alternatives for urban living—far cheaper cities with many of the same features that made you fall head over heels in the first place? Enter the realtor.com® data team. We distilled the true character of some of the nation’s most expensive metros, to find budget-friendly—and unexpected—counterparts around the country.

Nope, we’re not talking about twin cities, like neighboring Minneapolis and St. Paul. And they’re not sister cities, which are internationally matched to promote a cultural exchange. Instead, think of them as Metro Matchups™ —places that link up to the nation’s urban meccas in critical ways, but where you can buy a home for less than $350,000. Less than $350K!

You’ll never be able to find another New York—sorry, friends, Chicago’s deep-dish pies aren’t actually pizza at all—but you can find a place that offers at least some of the strange allure of the City That Never Sleeps for a fraction of the price. And techies who leave their hearts in San Francisco can still find jobs and happiness in a land where million-dollar teardowns do not prompt bidding wars.

“If you have a shopping list, you know what you want,” says Jody Kahn, the senior vice president of research at John Burns Real Estate Consulting. “You want to move somewhere that would work with your skills. You should also ask yourself: ‘What’s the vibe? Am I going to find people and activities I really enjoy?'”

If you’re leaving one of the United States’ biggest cities, you’re probably not going to move off the grid to somewhere without a reliable Wi-Fi signal (unless that’s your thing). So we limited our ranking to the 150 largest metros. All have median home prices below $350,000, plenty of gigs, and some ethnic diversity. We factored in housing stock, occupations, weather, nightlife, and a whole host of other criteria that help define an urban center’s unique personality:*

Percentage of stand-alone, single-family homes, condos, townhouses, and co-ops listed on realtor.com

Average days of sunshine per year

Dominant employment sectors (finance, government, tourism)

Dominant occupations

Restaurants per capita

Bars and nightlife venues per capita

Art galleries per capita

Number of pro and amateur sports teams

Car ownership rates

Some of our Metro Matchups™ pair up as you might expect. Others might make your jaw drop. But hey, we’ve got the data to back it all up! So let’s get going.

Prices in San Francisco getting you down? Rally to Raleigh!

iStock; realtor.com

San Francisco, CA

Median home list price: $868,000

Matchup: Raleigh, NC

Median home list price: $339,200 Matching metrics: Tech jobs, tech jobs, and did we mention tech jobs?

Let’s be real: There is only one City by the Bay! But if even thinking about your monthly rent or mortgage bill makes you reach for the anti-anxiety meds, you might want to consider … Raleigh.

Hear us out. The metro has the fifth-highest concentration of high-tech jobs in the nation. And the cost of living is just a fraction of that in San Francisco—or any of the other elite urban tech hubs like Boston or Seattle.

That isn’t news to tech start-up founder Matthew Sniff. In 2014, he left his Bay Area developer job to launch Map My Customers, a software app that helps companies optimize field sales in the field. Attractive prices led him to Raleigh, where he could get 1,700 square feet of office space for less than $2,000 per month. And an army of skilled techies kept him there.

“If I had to grade Raleigh, I would say A-plus for the cost of living and quality of life,” says Sniff. He admits the culture and nightlife aren’t quite on a par with S.F., but adds: “It would surprise people how good it is.”

There’s the Contemporary Art Museum in the city’s warehouse district that features emerging talent. And a bar scene with its own brand of quirkiness. The Angus Barn Restaurant features a butt-kicking contraption that does just what it says it will. And Flex, a popular gay club, hosts karaoke every nearly every night of the week, with the occasional drag queen show mixed in. “Islands in the Stream,” anyone?

Runner-up: New Orleans, with its food and nightlife

Trade earthquakes and smog for humidity and Spanish moss.

iStock; realtor.com

Los Angeles, CA

Median home list price: $699,600

Matchup: Savannah, GA

Median home list price: $249,900 Matching metrics: Movie production and beaches

Next time you’re eating butter-doused popcorn at the movies, just remember that film could very well have been made in Savannah. Yep, you heard us right: This is the Hollywood of the South. Savannah ranks No. 3 nationally in actor, producer, and director jobs.

The recent “Baywatch” movie, starring Zac Efron and Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, was filmed in the Gothic Southern city, as was Robert De Niro‘s “Dirty Grandpa.”  Please don’t blame Savannah for those! Let’s focus instead on Ben Affleck‘s “Live by Night” or Channing Tatum’s “Magic Mike XXL.” Or “Forrest Gump”!

But it wouldn’t be truly Hollywood-esque without a good, old-fashioned celebrity arrest. “Transformers” actor Shia LaBeouf was booked in Savannah for disorderly conduct and public intoxication while on a production break this summer.

The city’s popularity with filmmakers is in part thanks to a tax credit the state began offering in 2008. From 2010 to 2014, filmmakers spent $58 million to produce movies in Savannah, says Trip Tollison, president and CEO of the Savannah Economic Development Authority. They spent $60 million in 2016 alone.

If you plan to relocate, don’t forget to pack your sunscreen. Savannah has some fantastic beaches at Tybee Island.

Runner-up: Las Vegas, with a star-studded nightlife that never stops

Consider South Carolina if you’re finding prices in Honolulu to be a real beach.

iStock; realtor.com

Honolulu, HI

Median home list price: $695,000

Matchup: Myrtle Beach, SC

Median home list price: $235,000 Matching metrics: Gorgeous beaches, scads of tourism jobs

Want to escape the high cost of the 50th state but keep your swim trunks handy?

Myrtle Beach was named one of the top 25 favorite beach towns of 2016 by Travel & Leisure and one of the best family beach vacation spots by U.S. News and World Report. It has a beautiful 60-mile string of beaches dotted with hotels, mini golf courses, and boardwalks.

You might miss the luaus, the sublime surfing, and the soy-and-sesame-bathed raw fish in poke bowls. But you’ll have plenty to do here, and lots more money to do it with. That’s probably why Myrtle Beach welcomed more than 18 million visitors over the summer of 2016.

And if you’re a business owner, you know that vacationers keep the lights on. Myrtle Beach has tons of tourists, with holes burning in their wallets. They’re well advised to hold on tight to those wallets, as the city is known to have a higher-than-average crime rate. But things are getting better, and the place is growing.

Runner-up: Orlando, with off-the-charts tourism, Disney-style

Don’t let a historic NFL rivalry get in the way of your real estate choices.

Getty Images; realtor.com

Denver, CO

Median home list price: $499,500

Matchup: Kansas City, MO

Median home list price: $245,800 Matching metrics: Hipster scenes and car culture

Kansas City is no longer a stodgy Midwestern metropolis. The city’s downtown has been transformed over the last few years, and now it’s home to about 20 breweries. Heck, Kansas City was even the first market to get Google Fiber’s broadband service in 2012, which gave its small tech sector a turbo boost.

Looking for a hipper-than-thou bar? Head out to the Crossroads neighborhood, where you’ll find the Manifesto, a historic watering hole dating to Prohibition that’s now known for its wildly creative mixology. Or try Swordfish Tom’s, named after singer-songwriter Tom Waits. Now that you have a few cocktails in you, head over to the First Fridays outdoor event to enjoy street music, sidewalk vendors, food trucks, and art exhibits.

Denver refugees don’t have to give up the great outdoors, either. They can hike the Little Blue Trace Trail at Fleming Park, which runs alongside the Little Blue River.

When you’re packing for the move to Kansas City, just make sure to leave behind any uneaten brownies. (Wink, wink.)

Runner-up: Omaha, NE, with its numerous jobs in finance

Want to save some Benjamins? Ride on down from Boston to Philly.

iStock; realtor.com

Boston, MA

Median home list price: $489,500

Matchup: Philadelphia, PA

Median home list price: $249,400 Matching metrics: Historic brownstones, tech and finance gigs galore

We’ve got bad news for Bostonians: It doesn’t matter how many healthy dishes New England Patriots Quarterback Tom Brady prepares from his fancy new cookbook, the man can’t play forever. But don’t worry, you’ll get some brotherly love where you’re going.

So what if Philadelphia doesn’t win the Super Bowl every year? It’s a darned good sports city in its own right. Indeed, the city is sixth in the nation for pro sports championships, four spots behind Boston. Plus, there’s nothing like eating a Philly cheesesteak at a Phillies game.

“Philly is a great sports town,” says Ed Mastripolito, a cook at Philadium Restaurant & Tavern. “It is a hotbed when the Phillies are winning games. And we have football fans who show up the night before to tailgate for Eagles games.”

Built in a similar colonial era, Philadelphia has housing and city architecture that many a Bostonian would appreciate. The Philadelphia cityscape is a mix of Georgian, Greek Revival, and Victorian architecture.

Rest assured, you wouldn’t be the first Bostonian to leave for Philadelphia. Mr. Hundred-Dollar Bill himself, Benjamin Franklin, did the same almost 300 years ago.

Runner-up: Chicago, another city that goes gaga over its sports franchises and St. Paddy’s Day parades

Ditch the deluge in Seattle for the “Purple Rain” allure of Minneapolis.

iStock; Getty Images; realtor.com

Seattle, WA

Median home list price: $485,000

Matchup: Minneapolis, MN

Median home list price: $311,300 Matching metrics: No shortage of condos, tech jobs, and music legends

Seattle had Kurt Cobain. Minneapolis had Prince. And while these luminaries are gone, their songs live on, just like each city’s music scene.

Live-music aficionados can check out the Soundset Festival in Minneapolis, which draws more than 35,000 fans each year. This year, the event featured performances from Ty Dolla $ign, Travis Scott, and Gucci Mane.

And that’s not where the similarities between the cities end. Minneapolis is a bona fide start-up Eden.

John Malone, a software engineer at Apruve, a local credit network start-up, worked in San Francisco through the dot-com boom. But he left it behind to return to his hometown.

“Minneapolis is comfortable in its own skin,” Malone says. “It’s not a place that feels the need to compare itself with the coasts.”

Runner-up: Philadelphia, with its aerospace industry and fondness for damn good coffee

Love deep-dish but don’t have deep pockets? Chicago may be the place for you.

iStock; realtor.com

New York, NY

Median home list price: $472,500

Matchup: Chicago, IL

Median home list price: $279,700 Matching metrics: Unbeatable nightlife, financial capitals, pizza obsession

You’d think a city with more than 8 million inhabitants crammed into tiny apartments paying astronomical rents might have lots of folks eager to move. But if they did, they’d be giving up so much: Central Park, daily celebrity sightings, 77 Michelin-starred restaurants … also 24-hour subways that keep passengers waiting for ungodly stretches, cat-sized rats, ill-tempered hot dog vendors. OK, maybe there is a reason to leave the Apple. But once you’ve tasted it, where else can you go?

There really is only one more affordable city that could hope to do the city justice: Chicago.

Even the most stubborn New Yorker might be won over by Chi-town. The Chicago skyline is gorgeous, with Willis Tower doing a fine Empire State Building impression. Once a laggard in the foodie department, it’s now home to some of the best America has to offer. They’re just cheaper. And yes, the city also has its own public transportation system. (Sorry, it, too, tends to keep you waiting.)

The two cities are also known for their mob roots. New York had the Five Families. Chicago had the Chicago Outfit and Al Capone. You decide if this is a good thing.

Runner-up: Baltimore, a port city with lots of condos

Portland scene getting a little old? Discover Columbus!

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Portland, OR

Median home list price: $450,000

Matchup: Columbus, OH

Median home list price: $241,300 Matchup metrics: Hipster havens

The warning signs were there: man buns, artisanal pickle shops, and rooftop bars. So the Buckeye State shouldn’t be too surprised that hipsters have invaded their state capital. Yep, Columbus has even fallen for avocado toast.

“Both Columbus and Portland are known for supporting small business and shopping local,” says Shane Prather, a social media coordinator in Columbus. “We both love our brunch, coffee, and craft beer. We take our dogs everywhere around town and love being outdoors whenever possible.”

Nearly 20 craft breweries have opened in Columbus over the past five years. Want a taste? Attend the Columbus Ale Trail, where you’ll try suds from the 37 total breweries located in the city.

Prather recommends that those looking to grab a beer or dinner head to the Short North neighborhood. Squeezed in between downtown and Ohio State University’s campus, it has become a hotbed for millennials, and also hosts the annual Columbus Pride Parade.

Runner-up: Madison, WI, a college town with a funky food and nightlife scene

Racking your dome for DC alternatives? Go from Capitol to capital.

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Washington, D.C.

Median home list price: $429,500

Matchup: Trenton, NJ

Median home list price: $290,000 Matchup metrics: Government jobs rule the roost

On a weekend walk through the nation’s capital, you’ll see the Washington Monument and the Lincoln Memorial. They’re beautiful. But are they worth the high price tag you’ll pay each month in rent or for your mortgage? Hey, it’s not easy on many government salaries!

That’s why folks may want to consider Trenton. We know it’s a stretch. But the city has government and nonprofit jobs to spare: Nearly one in three jobs here is in the government sector.

“We’re the capital of New Jersey. So we have lots of state, county, and city government positions,” says George Sowa, CEO of Greater Trenton—a nonprofit that advocates for downtown development. “There is also a federal presence here as well, with Federal Court offices.”

It may not have D.C.’s museums or “House of Cards” power scene. But does the nation’s capital have an annual Pork Roll Festival? (We honestly don’t know.)

Keep in mind it’s only 26 minutes to Philadelphia, about an hour from New York … and if you get really homesick, two hours from D.C. on Amtrak.

Runner-up: Tallahassee, FL, an even more unlikely government-driven economy

Love the sun but coastal weather got you down? Raise your spirits in Phoenix.

iStock; realtor.com

Miami, FL

Median home list price: $387,500

Matchup: Phoenix, AZ

Median home list price: $317,200 Matchup metric: Sunshine and baby boomers baking in it

Hurricanes are becoming more frequent—and the cost of flood insurance isn’t going down. So maybe you’re a little less adamant about keeping your beachfront abode. If that’s the case, give Phoenix a look.

“You’re never going to worry about massive water damage to your house here,” says real estate agent Kristy Ryan of RE/MAX Fine Properties.

Despite lots of development, Phoenix still has some reasonably priced cribs. And nearby Scottsdale has grown its tourism in recent years and is trying to market itself as a party-seekers’ destination.

“There’s beautiful shopping and restaurants,” Ryan says. “And we have lots and lots of sunshine.”

Another perk? Phoenix has much lower humidity. Hair problems solved.

Runner-up: Virginia Beach,..

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