Who in the current junior teams worldwide do you see as a serious contender for the 2026 Olympics? Or will the next Olympics be dominated by senior teams that are already established this quad?
ooh it's interesting to think about which juniors have the potential to medal at the Olympics, but unless they rise really fast after they senior up, it probably will take til 2030. Usually the top Olympic teams have been seniors for more than a full quad - like in Beijing, you'd have to reach to #13 (Lajoie/Lagha) to find a team who were still juniors in 2018. PYC and Sochi were the same- all teams in the top 10 were seniors for a quad+. P/C were young in 2018, but they had been seniors since 2013-14. Ice dancers can compete longer than singles skaters, so you see a lot of experienced teams in the final flights at the Olympics.
So much can happen with juniors before they even go senior - there are a lot of splits, like Avonley Nguyen/Vadym Kolesnik winning Jr Worlds and being done. Emmy Bronsard/Aissa Bouaraguia 😢 Natalie D'Alessandro/Bruce Waddell, Utana Yoshida/Shingo Nishiyama. And we're not seeing the Russian juniors this year. So it feels too soon to guess who might have the combination of drive, resources, ability and luck to make the podium in 2030. But it's fun to wonder how far the Mrazeks or Bashynska/Beaumont can go.
With the minimum ages for jr/sr being raised, more teams will stay junior longer, so maybe the path from juniors to Olympics will get shorter?
the who.i.am videos were a short series they did in summer 2021 to feature junior skaters, and they included 4 teams: Jordyn and Noah, Emmy Bronsard & Aissa Bouaraguia, Hannah Lim & Ye Quan, and Sandrine Gauthier & Quentin Thieren
They also featured Nathan Lickers in a separate post:
Nadiia Bashynska & Peter Beaumont break the fourth-place curse that afflicted Canada’s junior dance teams in the first three Junior Grand Prix events of the season, winning the bronze medal at 2019 JGP Chelyabinsk.
Now that that’s done with, here’s to everybody else doing better in their second events.