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racingtoaredlight · 7 years ago

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The degenerate’s guide to 2017 college football TV watch ‘em ups: week 1, part 2

Welcome back for the rest of “Week 1″ of college football! I’m not sure what the dumb gimmick of calling everything from last Saturday through this Monday “Week 1″ is but it’s only bested by MLB having four days of Opening Day in sports scheduling nomenclature ignominy.

There are a million games this week but it sort of feels like bowl season because of the FSU - Alabama game. Is everything else irrelevant in national scope? Not at all. It’s just crazy that we have #3 playing #1 in the first week. I could have sworn Miami’s 31-0 beat down of FSU in 1988 was a #1 vs. #2 matchup but Miami was actually ranked sixth in that preseason.

So far we’ve seen nothing that gives us any indication of how this season is going to play out and we aren’t going to see much today that will either. But that’s no reason not to hop around like lunatics and over-react to every single big play and upset and shutout and close game. It’s all the best ever and always will be.

You already know what this is. Times are eastern. Shouts out to whoever the fuck puts together FBSchedules for making a format that’s relatively easy to copy and tweak for these posts.

Saturday, Sept. 2, 2017

Matchup Time (ET) TV

Akron at (6) Penn State Noon ABC

Look at all this pathetic MACtion going on first thing in the morning (Westsiiiiiide!!!!) on the first full day of college football in 2017. Word to the wise: don’t trust a Penn State running back to make it to the NFL unscathed.

Ball State at Illinois Noon BTN

Holy shit. This is truly awful. I think officials at the state, city and university levels all missed a big chance to cancel this game on account of the flooding in Texas.

Bowling Green at Michigan State Noon ESPNU

How bad is Michigan State, really? You can’t tell how good anybody is in week 1 but you might be able to figure out how bad they are. I can’t remember if Sparty had just one awful recruiting class or if the whole thing is about to crumble.

Kent State at (5) Clemson Noon ESPN

I can’t see Kent State and not think of that Buffalo Springfield song about the massacre. Clemson’s ridiculously stacked defensive line might actually make this fun to watch but it might also just be really sad. That’s as much thought as I can muster about this game.

Maryland at (23) Texas Noon FS1

This game makes me sad for all of the resources diverted here that could be better used on literally any other thing.

Missouri State at Missouri Noon SECN

I feel like Missouri should just drop athletics and maybe stop even being a school.

Wyoming at Iowa Noon BTN

Get in on the ground floor of thinking Josh Allen kind of sucks way before you forget who he is later in the year and start buying into the hype for his arm because you aren’t watching his games.

California at North Carolina 12:20 pm ACCN

This is a weird matchup between two teams that are starting over in very different senses of the phrase. I’ll probably give it a few minutes.

Bethune-Cookman at (18) Miami, FL 12:30 pm RSN

One of a number of games that should illustrate precisely nothing in terms of what to expect from the big name program involved. I’ll watch it because it’s Miami but I might check out once I see if Malik Rosier has developed the ability to throw a ball accurately over more than about 23″. My gut says he hasn’t.

Youngstown State at Pittsburgh 1:00 pm ACCNExtra

Qadree Ollison shouldn’t see more than 5 touches in this one before shutting down for protective purposes.

Portland State at Oregon State 2:00pm Pac-12N

I’m half sure this game already happened last week.

VMI at Air Force 2:00 pm ESPN3

This is prime drinking football.

NC State vs. South Carolina (at Charlotte, NC) 3:00 pm ESPN

An unwatchable force meets an unlikable object. Coach Boom somehow recruits like a motherfucker even though he has shown no capability to do anything positive as a head coach.

Alabama A&M at UAB 3:30 pm Stadium

UAB stands for U Are Back! The first game back as a football program should be an easy win but I honestly have no idea what they have on the roster.

(11) Michigan vs. (17) Florida (at Arlington, TX) 3:30 pm ABC

I actually like both coaches in this game and still expect to be bored to tears if I end up watching it.

Nevada at Northwestern 3:30 pm BTN

This is well scheduled because nobody should ever think of watching it and there are lots of other games on.

Temple at Notre Dame 3:30 pm NBC

I hope like hell we are seeing the last year of Brian Kelly’s coaching career but I’ve got a sneaking suspicion he’s due for a late October contract extension instead.

UTEP at (7) Oklahoma 3:30 pm FOX

Oklahoma may be fraudulent and still go 12-0 this year just because there isn’t really any coaching necessary in their conference and they’ve still got a ton of talent even with Big Game Bob gone.

William & Mary at Virginia 3:30 pm ACCNExtra

UVA has two or three “first round prospects” on their defense this year and yet I can’t help expecting this to be the only time all season where they’re favored to win a game.

Troy at Boise State 3:45 pm ESPNU

I’m passingly interested in this one because I’m not entirely sure what to think of Boise these days. Troy isn’t bereft of talent but might struggle playing pretty far from home here.

Charleston Southern at Mississippi State 4:00 pm SECN

Great chance to see Nick Fitzgerald get in 20 minutes of practice before the season starts.

Eastern Washington at Texas Tech 4:00 pm FSN

Eastern Washington’s offense isn’t totally different from Texas Tech. This could be the most Big XII game possible featuring a D1-AA program.

Kentucky at Southern Miss 4:00 pm CBSSN

Watch how stupid things can get if Kentucky picks up votes for destroying a shell of a program.

Stony Brook at (19) USF 4:00 pm ESPN3

USF is easing into this whole Charlie Strong Era. If anybody is gonna put up 100 points this week it’s USF but it won’t even feel like it counts against Stony Brook.

Western Michigan at (4) USC 5:15 pm Pac-12N

USC opens up yet another season of unfairly high expectations against a MAC school. Adjust your perception of the outcome appropriately.

Albany at Old Dominion 6:00 pm ESPN3

These two schools might also feature in a play-in game during March Madness.

James Madison at East Carolina 6:00 pm ESPN3

I still can’t believe ECU fired Ruffin McNeill. Fuck that school. Go JMacs!

NC Central at Duke 6:00 pm ACCNExtra

I’ve got NC Central straight up in this one.

Appalachian State at (15) Georgia 6:15 pm ESPN

There isn’t much you can do to prove you’re good in most week 1 games but I would not be shocked to see Kirby Smart’s Bulldogs make themselves look really bad in week 1. If that is correct, don’t mistake that as a lack of talent. It will simply be poor coaching that got them in this mess.

Miami, OH at Marshall 6:30 pm Stadium

Marshall, you may remember, is in Conference USA.

Central Arkansas at (20) Kansas State 7:00 pm K-StateHD.TV

Kansas State is ranked but playing on closed circuit TV available only on campus. Somehow this makes sense.

Eastern Kentucky at WKU 7:00 pm FloSports.TV

The winner of this game gets ownership of the Middle of Kentucky Trophy.

Hampton at Ohio 7:00 pm ESPN3

Go Hampton.

Houston at UTSA — Postponed

I believe the plan is to make this up in October or November.

Houston Baptist at Texas State 7:00 pm ESPN3

Great chance to test your skills at the popular “Guess the Division 1-A program!”

Lamar at North Texas 7:00 pm ESPN3

The Fightin’ 096ers are playing against the javelin thrower from Revenge of the Nerds. My money is on the nerd.

Liberty at Baylor 7:00 pm FS2

Watching this game is actually a Title IX violation so if you have kids and this is on your TV those kids are already ineligible to compete in NCAA-sponsored athletics. If you choose to watch this game you should not let anybody know.

Northwestern State at Louisiana Tech 7:00 pm ESPN3

Louisiana Tech, weirdly enough, lost a shitload of good players from last year’s team. I’m kind of intrigued to see what this year’s models can do for them.

SE Louisiana at UL Lafayette 7:00 pm ESPN3

Oh, yeah, this is the great battle to determine if you can figure out which direction you’re facing in Louisiana. One of college football’s most prestigious rivalries.

SE Missouri at Kansas 7:00 pm JTV

A good sign of things ahead for Kansas is that they’ve started to beat out SE Missouri for the high school cream of the crop.

Stephen F. Austin at SMU 7:00 pm ESPN3

ms621 will be at this game so if you see somebody in the crowd, that’s him. SMU might even be favored in this one so it’s pretty prime watch ‘em up filler.

UMass at Coastal Carolina 7:00 pm ESPN3

UMass is one of the lucky handful of teams that gets to play two games in “week 1.” That’s really all there is to say about this game.

Cal Poly at San Jose State 7:30 pm No TV

I guess technically I shouldn’t put this game in the post but I chuckled when I got to No TV for the TV listing.

Georgia Southern at (12) Auburn 7:30 pm SECN

I’ve got all of my money and considerable reputation riding on Jarrett Stidham getting benched at some point this season due to ineffective play.

(16) Louisville vs. Purdue (at Indianapolis, IN) 7:30 pm FOX

I don’t know how much you can really win on it but I feel like taking a prop that Lamar Jackson wins another Heisman is not bad in the scheme of things. I have this very strong premonition that he’s going to be even better this year than last year. This is the first of 9 games in this stadium in 2017 where the visiting team has the only NFL-caliber QB on the field.

South Alabama at University of Mississippi, Oxford 7:30 pm ESPNU

USA! USA! USA! The bad guys are 22.5 point favorites and I have some trouble believing they’re going to beat anybody by that much this year.

Abilene Christian at New Mexico 8:00 pm No TV

No TV is my new favorite network.

Arkansas State at Nebraska 8:00 pm BTN

Reminder! We are still a couple of years from Nebraska being worth your time unless you are very partisan. Maybe even if you are very partisan.

(3) Florida State vs. (1) Alabama (at Atlanta, GA) 8:00 pm ABC

GAME OF THE YEAR OF THE WEEK! There are some dummies in the world that think this is an easy win in the making for Bama and I have no clue where that kind of certainty comes from. The Tide should be better along the lines but FSU is hardly hurting for talent. I’m kind of excited to see what freshman RB Cam Akers can do for the Seminoles and also Derwin James, the safety who missed almost all of last year and is generally considered the best player on their team.

Grambling State at Tulane 8:00 pm ESPN3

How bad do you think the teams that have no coverage feel when they look up and see this game getting the ESPN 3 treatment? I hope it’s plenty bad. Frankly those kids should have given up football rather than accepting scholarships from their sad programs.

Jackson State at TCU 8:00 pm FSN

You laugh but this is actually one of the toughest out of conference games that any Big XII team scheduled for 2017.

Northern Iowa at Iowa State 8:00 pm Cyclones.tv

As I’m writing this it appears to me that there’s still no spread for this game. I’m going to choose to believe that means it is a pick ‘em and Northern Iowa is effectively equal in stature and talent to Iowa State.

Vanderbilt at Middle Tennessee 8:00 pm CBSSN

The Richie James RTARLsman train starts a-rollin’ right here over the Vanderbilt Glorias. MTSU by 30 seems like the safe bet to me.

Southern Utah at Oregon 8:15 pm Pac-12N

Seems a shame that more of the country doesn’t have access to seeing the birth of the Willie Taggert era for the Ducks.

UC Davis at San Diego State 8:30 pm Stadium

No, I do not know what SDSU is doing on this thing that broadcasts via facebook instead of the their comfortable home on CBS Sports.

Howard at UNLV 9:00 pm MWN

UNLV being named “Rebels” has always been weird to me. Nevada was a Union state that didn’t really have much in the way of material impact Civil War (it became a state with less than one year left in the conflict) and yet they chose a wolf in a Confederate uniform as their first mascot. And here they are competing against a historically black college in their home opener. It’s all odd.

BYU vs. (13) LSU (at New Orleans, LA) 9:30 pm ESPN

I’m super sure that this time LSU is really gonna have a much better offense. Les Miles is gone after all so, yeah, I’m totally buying that. Noted offensive genius Ed Orgeron is definitely gonna have them on the right path.

Incarnate Word at Fresno State 10:00 pm No TV

/ googles “what channel is No TV”

Montana State at (24) Washington State 10:30 pm FS1

Washington State apparently has a “FCS curse” that I had never heard of until I went looking to see if Montana State is supposed to be good. Montana State is not supposed to be good. Keep that in mind as you’re searching for commercial filler.

NAU at Arizona 11:00 pm Pac-12N

I checked to make sure Donavan Tate isn’t starting for Arizona and he appears to be the third man in a two man race for the position. If I know my RichRod that means he might be a WR prospect at best.

Western Carolina at Hawaii 11:59 pm Spectrum PPV

Regardless of the quality of the product (usually pretty low) Hawaii home games will always be the absolute apex of Degenerate Football as a concept. Nothing feels weirder than watching a game in the middle of the night that is being played live in broad daylight. This is the game that truly signals football is back for me.

Sunday, Sept. 3, 2017

Texas A&M at UCLA 7:30 pm FOX

Remember last year when I said UCLA vs. Texas A&M could be a game between the 2017 and 2018 #1 overall draft picks? Well, the first part of that came true when Myles Garrett went #1 this year. The second part won’t come true because Jim Mora, Jr. is a horrible coach and even if Josh Rosen is fully healed from his injuries last year there’s no way JMJ and staff have coached him up even a little on technique or mental processing.

(22) West Virginia vs. (21) Virginia Tech (at Landover, MD) 7:30 pm ABC

I’m glad to see the shitty stadium that D.C.’s NFL team plays in is now considered Landover. Landover was always a punchline growing up because the Bullets and Capitals played there and it is nowhere close to being in D.C. It’s basically the same as the Angels being referred to as “Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.” On the other hand, Raljon, MD is one of the great triumphs of really stupid corporate ownership of all resources. A beacon to the rest of well-moneyed assholery that anything can be yours and named for your incompetent sons, even if you don’t trust them to actually maintain your legacy and plan to liquidate all of your assets upon your own death.

Monday, Sept. 4, 2017

(25) Tennessee vs. Georgia Tech (at M-B Stadium) 8:00 pm ESPN

This is a weird choice for this of all games to stand alone on the only Monday night that college football gets to itself this year. Maybe the thinking is more along the lines of “this is the only way we can trick people into watching this game.” I have some mostly inexplicable affinity for Georgia Tech and there is a lot to be said for watching UT struggle, so go Ramblin’ Wreck!

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#football #college football #tv watch em ups #saturday post #degenerate football

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madpicks · 7 years ago

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New Post has been published on https://www.madpicks.com/sports-betting/predicting-winner-every-week-1-college-football-game/

Predicting the winner of every Week 1 college football game

After last week’s brief walkthrough, it’s time for the actual start of the 2017 college football season. Thanks to the pervasiveness of early-season tune-ups against FCS opponents, there are a whopping 86 games on the FBS schedule. Let’s predict all of them.

Below are picks and projections using 2017 S&P+ projections. See the bottom of the post for more detail about these.

The spread (listed in parentheses) is shown next to S&P+’s pick for each game. When S&P+ predicts a push (a tie with Vegas, basically), I’m listing the pick on the side that S&P+ would’ve picked, if teams could score in decimals. This document breaks games out into their decimal glory.

Ranked vs. ranked

No. 1 Alabama 30 (-7), No. 3 Florida State 23 (Saturday, 8:00 PM ET, ABC)

No. 11 Michigan 24, No. 17 Florida (+5.5) 22 (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET, ABC)

No. 21 Virginia Tech (-4) 32, No. 22 West Virginia 22 (Sunday, 7:30 PM ET, ABC)

Here’s a good time to mention that S&P+ is intentionally obtuse. There are no adjustments for suspensions, injuries, etc., from week to week. It does account for preseason dismissals, but brief suspensions are out of its realm. So while it projects Florida to stay slightly closer to Michigan than the line would suggest, it hasn’t taken into account the suspensions that have shaken up the Gators’ two-deep.

The Florida-Michigan line has also jumped by about two points in 24 hours.

Running back Lamical Perine is poised to start for Florida due to Jordan Scarlett’s suspension.

Other ranked teams in action

No spread picks for FBS vs. FCS games, which typically don’t have lines.

No. 2 Ohio State 34, Indiana (+20.5) 17 (Thursday, 8:00 PM ET, ESPN)

No. 4 USC 42, Western Michigan (+27) 15 (Saturday, 5:15 PM ET, Pac-12)

No. 5 Clemson (-39.5) 46, Kent State 6 (Saturday, 12:00 PM ET, ESPN)

No. 6 Penn State (-30.5) 51, Akron 12 (Saturday, 12:00 PM ET, ABC)

No. 7 Oklahoma 55, UTEP (+43) 13 (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET, Fox)

No. 8 Washington 38, Rutgers (+27.5) 14 (Friday, 8:00 PM ET, FS1)

No. 9 Wisconsin 38, Utah State (+28.5) 14 (Friday, 9:00 PM ET, ESPN)

No. 10 Oklahoma State 42 (-18), Tulsa 23 (Thursday, 7:30 PM ET, FS1)

No. 12 Auburn 43, Georgia Southern (+34.5) 11 (Saturday, 7:30 PM ET, SECN)

No. 13 LSU 36 (-16.5), BYU 17 (Saturday, 9:30 PM ET, ESPN)

No. 15 Georgia 33, Appalachian State (+14.5) 20 (Saturday, 6:15 PM ET, ESPN)

No. 16 Louisville (-25) 42, Purdue 16 (Saturday, 7:30 PM ET, Fox)

No. 18 Miami-FL 48, Bethune-Cookman 7 (Saturday, 12:30 PM ET, ACCN)

No. 19 South Florida 46, Stony Brook 21 (Saturday, 4:00 PM ET, ESPN3)

No. 20 Kansas State 43, Central Arkansas 18 (Saturday, 7:30 PM ET, ESPN3)

No. 23 Texas 38, Maryland (+18.5) 20 (Saturday, 12:00 PM ET, FS1)

No. 24 Washington State 45, Montana State 18 (Saturday, 10:30 PM ET, FS1)

No. 25 Tennessee 31, Georgia Tech (+3) 29 (Monday, 8:00 PM ET, ESPN)

For the most part, S&P+ takes the underdog’s side when the lines are huge. You never know where the line will be drawn in a blowout, when the winning team will call off the dogs, and how much the winning team will keep scoring afterward.

There are some challenging lines here, by the way. S&P+ and Vegas almost completely agree on USC-WMU, Clemson-Kent State, OU-UTEP, OSU-Tulsa, Louisville-Purdue, Texas-Maryland, and Tennessee-Georgia Tech.

Sam Darnold and USC should win comfortably against WMU.

Power 5 vs. Power 5

North Carolina 35, California (+11.5) 28 (Saturday, 12:20 PM ET, ACCN)

NC State 29, South Carolina (+5) 25 (Saturday, 3:00 PM ET, ESPN)

Texas A&M (+3.5) 30, UCLA 27 (Sunday, 7:30 PM ET, Fox)

S&P+ also doesn’t take body clocks into account. Having Cal kick off at 9 a.m. California time might be worth a couple of extra points for UNC.

Demetris Robertson and Cal will have their #bodyclocks tested.

FBS vs. FBS

UCF 34, Florida International (+17) 23 (Thursday, 6:00 PM ET, CBSSN)

Minnesota 37, Buffalo (+26) 12 (Thursday, 7:00 PM ET, BTN)

Memphis 44, UL-Monroe (+26) 23 (Thursday, 9:00 PM ET, CBSSN)

Arizona State 44, New Mexico State (+22.5) 25 (Thursday, 10:30 PM ET, Pac-12)

Eastern Michigan (-14) 39, Charlotte 24 (Friday, 6:30 PM ET, ESPN3)

Colorado State (+5.5) 33, Colorado 33 (Friday, 8:00 PM ET, Pac-12)

Navy 36, Florida Atlantic (+9.5) 33 (Friday, 8:00 PM ET, ESPNU)

Northern Illinois 26 (+2.5), Boston College 25 (Friday, 9:30 PM ET, CBSSN)

Illinois 32, Ball State (+6.5) 26 (Saturday, 12:00 PM ET, BTN)

Iowa 31, Wyoming (+11.5) 22 (Saturday, 12:00 PM ET, BTN)

Michigan State 36, Bowling Green (+17) 22 (Saturday, 12:00 PM ET, ESPNU)

Northwestern 39, Nevada (+24.5) 17 (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET, BTN)

Notre Dame 35, Temple (+18.5) 19 (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET, NBC)

Boise State (-11) 37, Troy 25 (Saturday, 3:45 PM ET, ESPNU)

Kentucky 35, Southern Miss (+10) 27 (Saturday, 4:00 PM ET, CBSSN)

Marshall 28, Miami (Ohio) (+2.5) 27 (Saturday, 6:30 PM ET, Stadium)

Coastal Carolina (+2.5) 32, Massachusetts 29 (Saturday, 7:00 PM ET, ESPN3)

Ole Miss 44 (-24), South Alabama 17 (Saturday, 7:30 PM ET, ESPNU)

Nebraska 33, Arkansas State (+16) 18 (Saturday, 8:00 PM ET, BTN)

Vanderbilt (-3) 36, Middle Tennessee 29 (Saturday, 8:00 PM ET, CBSSN)

There are no significant differences between S&P+ and Vegas here, but one game stands out. Defending Pac-12 South champion Colorado obliterated in-state rival CSU last year on the way to its first 10-win season in 15 years.

This year, the line is within a touchdown, and S&P+ thinks it’s a virtual tossup. Can the Rams follow up on last week’s easy win over Oregon State and move to 2-0 in the Pac-12 with a revenge victory?

Michael Gallup and the CSU offense might be among the best Colorado faces this year.

FBS vs. FCS

Wake Forest 41, Presbyterian 13 (Thursday, 6:30 PM ET, ACCN)

Cincinnati 45, Austin Peay 11 (Thursday, 7:00 PM ET, ESPN3)

Central Michigan 38, Rhode Island 21 (Thursday, 7:00 PM ET, ESPN3)

Georgia State 33, Tennessee State 21 (Thursday, 7:00 PM ET, ESPN3)

Toledo 48, Elon 19 (Thursday, 7:00 PM ET, ESPN3)

Connecticut 32, Holy Cross 23 (Thursday, 7:30 PM ET, ESPN3)

Utah 42, North Dakota 18 (Thursday, 7:30 PM ET, Pac-12)

Arkansas 51, Florida A&M 10 (Thursday, 8:00 PM ET, SECN)

Idaho 38, Sacramento State 25 (Thursday, 9:00 PM ET, ESPN3)

Army 33, Fordham 23 (Friday, 6:00 PM ET, CBSSN)

Syracuse 45, Central Connecticut 16 (Friday, 7:00 PM ET, ACCN)

Missouri 45, Missouri State 20 (Saturday, 12:00 PM ET, SECN)

Pittsburgh 45, Youngstown State 20 (Saturday, 1:00 PM ET, ACCN)

Oregon State 41, Portland State 17 (Saturday, 2:00 PM ET, Pac-12)

Air Force 39, VMI 27 (Saturday, 2:00 PM ET, ESPN3)

UAB 31, Alabama A&M 25 (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET, Stadium)

Virginia 39, William & Mary 18 (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET, ACCN)

Mississippi State 45, Charleston S’ern 19 (Saturday, 4:00 PM ET, SECN)

Texas Tech 44, Eastern Washington 26 (Saturday, 4:00 PM ET, FSN affiliates)

Old Dominion 35, Albany 24 (Saturday, 6:00 PM ET, ESPN3)

East Carolina 35, James Madison 26 (Saturday, 6:00 PM ET, ESPN3)

Duke 42, NC Central 18 (Saturday, 6:00 PM ET, ACCN)

Western Kentucky 46, Eastern Kentucky 16 (Saturday, 7:00 PM ET, $FloTV)

Ohio 34, Hampton 19 (Saturday, 7:00 PM ET, ESPN3)

Texas State 30, Houston Baptist 28 (Saturday, 7:00 PM ET, ESPN3)

North Texas 33, Lamar 23 (Saturday, 7:00 PM ET, ESPN3)

Baylor 44, Liberty 16 (Saturday, 7:00 PM ET, FS2)

Louisiana Tech 44, Northwestern State 22 (Saturday, 7:00 PM ET, ESPN3)

Kansas 34, SE Missouri State 25 (Saturday, 7:00 PM ET, ESPN3)

UL-Lafayette 31, SE Louisiana 22 (Saturday, 7:00 PM ET, ESPN3)

SMU 40, Stephen F. Austin 22 (Saturday, 7:00 PM ET, ESPN3)

San Jose State 33, Cal Poly 25 (Saturday, 7:30 PM ET)

New Mexico 42, Abilene Christian 28 (Saturday, 8:00 PM ET)

Tulane 32, Grambling 21 (Saturday, 8:00 PM ET, ESPN3)

TCU 54, Jackson State 7 (Saturday, 8:00 PM ET, FSN affiliates)

Iowa State 42, Northern Iowa 22 (Saturday, 8:00 PM ET, Cyclones.tv)

Oregon 46, Southern Utah 19 (Saturday, 8:15 PM ET, Pac-12)

San Diego State 42, UC Davis 16 (Saturday, 8:30 PM ET, Stadium)

UNLV 43, Howard 22 (Saturday, 9:00 PM ET, MWC Video)

Fresno State 36, Incarnate Word 22 (Saturday, 10:00 PM ET)

Arizona 41, Northern Arizona 21 (Saturday, 11:00 PM ET, Pac-12)

Hawaii 38, Western Carolina 25 (Saturday, midnight ET, MWC Video)

Your best FCS upset opportunities: Houston Baptist is projected to have a 45 percent chance of beating a rebuilding Texas State, Alabama A&M has a 35 percent chance against the unprojectable UAB Blazers, Cal Poly has a 32 percent chance against San Jose State, SEMO has a 30 percent chance against Kansas, and Southeastern Louisiana has a 29 percent chance against UL-Lafayette.

Former MSU quarterback Damian Williams hopes to guide Texas State to a better 2017 campaign.

Each year at Football Study Hall, I have posted weekly S&P+ picks as a way of affirming the ratings’ validity. I use my S&P+ system as a complement to most of my analysis, and the picks are a way of showing it generally knows what it’s talking about.

S&P+ tends to hit between 50 (meh) and 54 percent (great) against the spread from year to year. It isn’t always the single best performer, but it holds its own. And beyond picks, it goes deeper than any other set of college football analytics on the market. You can go into granular detail regarding team strengths and weaknesses in a way that no other set of ratings allows. (See the annual team statistical profiles as proof.)

This year, I will be posting the weekly S&P+ picks at SB Nation instead of FSH.

Because I like to experiment, however, I won’t just be posting the official S&P+ picks. Go to this Google doc, and you will find three sets of picks: S&P+, F/+ (combined ratings from S&P+ and Brian Fremeau’s FEI), and what I’m calling an adjusted S&P+ pick, in which I attempt to account for two additional factors: week of play and type of game.

Week of play: I’m finding that there are cycles to scoring averages throughout a given season. Week 1 typically falls below the season scoring average, while the final weeks of the season tend to perk up in the scoring department. This adjusted projection will take this into account.

Game type: It shouldn’t be surprising to learn that the standard deviation of possible results in a game against FCS competition, for instance, is different than that of a conference game. This projection will also adjust for different types of games. This will mean some pretty extreme projections (Arkansas by 63 over FAMU, for example), but we’ll see how it performs.

In the abbreviated Week 0.5 action last week, all three sets of picks performed well, but the adjusted picks performed far better. We’ll see if that remains the case with this week’s ridiculously large set of games.

#CFB #college football #NCAAF #Sports Betting

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junker-town · 8 years ago

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Idaho can play for titles in FCS, but the Vandals’ last season in FBS is still sad

The Vandals are headed down to the FCS’ Big Sky Conference, but not before attempting to replicate last year’s nine-win run.

Things are going to be alright. If you take anything away from Idaho's 2016, take that.

It was easy to go to a dark place when talking about Idaho football. In the four years between 2011 and ‘14, the Vandals won all of five games. It was a definitive sign of improvement when they went 4-8 in 2015.

In the meantime, the WAC folded, and they barely found a home via short-term deal with the Sun Belt. And with such a miserable run, the Sun Belt announced that Idaho and NMSU would be booted from football membership when their contracts ran out after 2017.

Even with a sudden turnaround, Idaho would be blocked from potential Mountain West membership by both rivalry (Boise State wouldn't allow it) and math (the MWC already has 12 members and likely wouldn't be in the market for just one more). So given no hope for a landing spot and considering the challenges of long-term independence, Idaho announced it would be dropping to FCS.

The dread in that scenario is obvious. Idaho was basically relegated, which is basically the story of Idaho's entire football existence.

The program was in the Pacific Coast Conference until the 1950s, when USC and company started a new conference and didn't send an invitation to Moscow.

Idaho stuck it out as an independent from 1959 to 1974, then dropped down a division.

After a successful run at the I-AA level, the Vandals returned to I-A in 1996, only to watch rival and former community college Boise State surge. The Broncos have won 10-plus games 14 times and finished ranked 10 times since the move. Heading into 2016, the Vandals had been to two bowls (both in Boise) and finished with a winning record just four times.

All of this is bad. Throw in Idaho-in-late-fall weather, a cranky-at-its-happiest fan base, and the aging nature of the Kibbie Dome, and you've got a dreary existence.

Despite impending relegation, Idaho went out and played fun, aggressive, and frequently successful football in 2016. The Vandals absorbed a 2-3 start, then ignited when the scheduled eased up a hair. They finished the regular season with six wins (four by double digits) in seven tries, then raced out to a huge lead on Colorado State in the Potato Bowl and won a ridiculous shootout, 61-50.

It might not have saved them, but 2016 was Idaho’s best FBS season since its 9-3 run in 1998. It reminded the Vandals and their fans of what could lie on the horizon: wins. And soon, in theory, title runs.

Here are the top 10 FCS teams in 2016's Sagarin ratings, with Idaho added:

James Madison (No. 33 overall)

North Dakota State (No. 44)

Eastern Washington (No. 54)

Youngstown State (No. 67)

Idaho (No. 73)

South Dakota State (No. 82)

Wofford (No. 85)

Sam Houston State (No. 89)

Jacksonville State (No. 91)

Chattanooga (No. 94)

Northern Iowa (No. 95)

Idaho would have ranked just below the four FCS semifinalists. Depending on home-road splits, the Vandals might have won the Big Sky, one of the FCS' best conferences.

Granted, this came with an allotment of 85 scholarships (Idaho will have to work down to 63 at the FCS level). And granted, these scholarships were accepted because of the promise of FBS play. Plus, this was only one season.

Still, this was a reminder that Idaho was a pretty big deal at the FCS level. The Vandals went to the I-AA/FCS playoffs 11 times between 1982 and 1995, reaching the semifinals in 1988 and 1993. They were able to hire FBS-level coaching talent like Dennis Erickson (1982-85), Keith Gilbertson (1986-88), John L. Smith (1989-94), and Chris Tormey (1995-99). They attracted eventual NFL-level talent like quarterbacks John Friesz and Doug Nussmeier and lineman Mark Schlereth.

Plus, let's face it: The Sun Belt isn't all that much tougher than the Big Sky. Per Sagarin, the top six non-Idaho teams in the Sun Belt had an average ranking of 84; the top six in the Big Sky: 107. There are plenty of big games in Idaho's future.

But first things first: the encore. They bring into battle a 3,000-yard passer, two 600-yard rushers, an all-conference right tackle, and maybe the best linebacking corps in the Sun Belt.

S&P+ isn't a huge Idaho fan because of recent history and recent recruiting, but if the Vandals avoid the more vengeful side of the injury bug and thrive in tossup games, they could reach one more bowl before their goals shift from Potato Bowl to FCS Playoffs.

2016 in review

2016 Idaho statistical profile.

For Idaho, the season basically started on October 8. Before then, the Vandals were the sketchy team they were projected to be. After that, it was 1998 all over again.

First 5 games (2-3) — Avg. percentile performance: 25% | Avg. performance vs. S&P+ projection: minus-11.3 PPG | Avg. yards per play: Opp 6.4, Idaho 4.6 (minus-1.8)

Last 8 games (7-1) — Avg. percentile performance: 63% | Avg. performance vs. S&P+ projection: plus-14.8 PPG | Avg. yards per play: Idaho 6.2, Opp 6.1 (plus-0.1)

The improvement was almost all offensive, as you can see. Quarterback Matt Linehan had a 105.7 passer rating through the first five games, then had a 154.8 from that point forward.

Opponent quality had something to do with this, but so did certain guys stepping up (including Linehan). Jordan Frysinger, for instance, missed the first five games, then averaged 3.3 catches for 58.1 yards per game thereafter. Meanwhile, the run game became a bit sturdier when Isaiah Saunders took off. He averaged just four carries per game over the first six contests but averaged 23.4 carries for 112.6 yards over the final five games (all wins).

Saunders and Linehan are back, but Idaho does have to replace Frysinger, twin-tower tight ends Deon Watson and Trent Cowan (combined: 1,242 yards, 9 touchdowns), and Z receiver Callen Hightower.

Including sophomore Jante Boston, who missed 2016, the top five returning wideouts combined for a decent 104 catches in their last seasons of action. But they averaged just 9.9 yards per catch, and for all of his strength, Saunders isn't a home run hitter either. The Vandals will need to find some new big-play guys.

Offense

Full advanced stats glossary.

Petrino might be as cranky as the Idaho fan base, but he and coordinator Kris Cinkovich can coach an offense. Even with last year's slow start, the Vandals finished in the Off. S&P+ top 85 for the third consecutive year. That's not amazing, but it's clear improvement: Idaho ranked 115th in each of Robb Akey's last two years.

The Vandals' running and passing games were polar opposites of each other last year. Hell, the run game was the opposite of itself. Aaron Duckworth, the primary ball-carrier for the first half of the year, was all-or-nothing, carrying the ball at least five yards a paltry 31 percent of the time but showing nice explosiveness. When Saunders took over, he brought more efficiency but rarely broke bigger gains.

Photo by Loren Orr/Getty Images

Isaiah Saunders

Meanwhile, the passing game provided the efficiency. Idaho ranked 12th in passing success rate, with Linehan completing 62 percent of his passes and finding a nice stable of efficiency options -- Watson (52 percent success rate), Cowan (61 percent), Hightower (55 percent), Frysinger (67 percent!), etc. Idaho had only 48 gains of 20-plus yards, 107th in FBS, and the big-play capability sank when Duckworth began getting fewer carries. But the efficiency was high enough to pull it off.

With Watson (17 yards per catch) and Frysinger (17.9) gone, Idaho's big-play potential might be even further tamped down in 2017. That could be an issue, especially against a defense that is sturdy enough to limit efficiency.

Linehan has good size and a good arm, and Idaho has solid size both at running back (Saunders, Duckworth, and sophomore Denzal Brantley average 5'10, 213) and on the offensive line (three returnees with starting experience average 6'5, 318). The Vandals are nice and physical, even though the line now lacks for experience with the loss of six players from the two-deep.

But big plays are the biggest issue here. Where are they going to come from? Might Duckworth become efficient enough to earn more carries again? What might Bradley or redshirt freshman back Dylan Thigpen have to offer? Can a younger receiver like Boston, sophomore Michael Garner, redshirt freshman Brandon Luckett, or freshman J.J. Wills bring some explosiveness to the table?

Idaho's quick passing game reduces negative plays and keeps the ball moving forward. But you need some chunk plays.

Defense

If you have a specific identity, these radar charts are designed to find them. With the offensive chart above, you quickly see that Idaho was good at passing efficiently but couldn't bring a lot to the table with the run or big plays.

With this defensive chart, you see the opposite.

Idaho played sturdy run defense but struggled with efficiency and against the pass. The Vandals ranked 65th in Rushing S&P+ and gave up only four rushes of 30-plus yards all year (seventh in FBS), but they ranked 106th in Passing S&P+. Opponents completed 63 percent of their passes with a 147.3 passer rating.

Pass defense was a tipping point of sorts. In Idaho's nine wins, opponents still managed a 135.7 passer rating but completed just 58 percent of their passes with a nearly 5 percent interception rate. Idaho strangled the run game and forced opponents into passing aggressively. Within this environment, the Vandals typically made enough plays to offset what they were giving up.

In four losses, they got positively gashed: 73 percent completion rate, 171.8 passer rating, 13 touchdowns to three interceptions.

The secondary was scuffling all year. Safety Jordan Grabski and corner Dorian Clark missed all season after combining for 79.5 tackles in 2015, and only three of nine remaining regulars played in all 13 games. Safeties Jayshawn Jordan and Russell Siavii combined for eight picks, 12 breakups, and three tackles for loss, but the unit had little continuity.

Still, the partial effectiveness was a nice step forward. Idaho ranked 117th, 123rd, and 125th, respectively, in Def. S&P+ over Petrino's first three seasons but improved to 98th last year. That's something.

This coming fall, the strengths might need to flip. Four of the top five linemen are gone; departees Tueni Lupeamanu, Kevin Shelton, Glen Antoine, and Khalin Smith combined for 19 tackles for loss, and they were four of only five linemen to record more than 11 tackles. Idaho got away with iffy depth up front because these five players missed a combined one game.

Assuming Grabski and Clark return at full strength, the secondary might have the continuity it lacked. Jordan, Siavii, and corners D.J. Hampton and Desmond Banks are all gone, but in Grabski, Clark, and safeties Ty Graham and Armond Hawkins, there's a decent base of experience. If a lesser known player -- sophomore Qendarrion Barnett, sophomore Lloyd Hightower, redshirt freshman Vaughn Daggs II, JUCO transfer Tyrece Parker -- is able to step up, and Idaho avoids significant injury, maybe the pass defense gets by. But those are some unsteady ifs.

Luckily, Idaho still has its linebackers. Juniors Tony Lashley, Ed Hall, and Kaden Elliss combined for 20 tackles for loss, five sacks, five picks, and four breakups. They were play-stoppers against the run and play-makers against the pass. Linebackers can't do much if the guys in front of and behind them stink, but if Idaho is semi-stable elsewhere, the linebackers could assure another top-100 ranking at least.

Photo by William Mancebo/Getty Images

Tony Lashley

Special Teams

Marginal improvement on defense helped Idaho to break through, but special teams helped as well. Austin Rehkow was one of the nation's steadier kickers, and while punt returner Denzal Alfonso Onunwor lacked in explosiveness, he was steady and efficient. Idaho ranked 18th in Special Teams S&P+, and the point or two per game that Idaho drew from special teams certainly helped to assure the Vandals' 4-0 record in one-possession games.

Onunwor's back, but in Rehkow Idaho loses a great place-kicer and a solid kickoffs guy and punter all in one. The Vandals are starting over in this unit, in other words.

2017 outlook

2017 Schedule & Projection Factors

Date Opponent Proj. S&P+ Rk Proj. Margin Win Probability 1-Sep Sacramento State NR 28.0 95% 9-Sep UNLV 118 1.7 54% 16-Sep at Western Michigan 74 -15.4 19% 21-Oct at Missouri 53 -21.4 11% TBA Appalachian State 62 -14.1 21% TBA Coastal Carolina 114 1.0 52% TBA UL-Lafayette 112 0.5 51% TBA UL-Monroe 121 3.9 59% TBA at Georgia State 113 -5.1 38% TBA at New Mexico State 124 -1.5 46% TBA at South Alabama 108 -6.1 36% TBA at Troy 79 -14.2 21%

Projected S&P+ Rk 119 Proj. Off. / Def. Rk 91 / 121 Projected wins 5.0 Five-Year S&P+ Rk -5.5 (89) 2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk 125 / 128 2016 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin* 11 / 6.0 2016 TO Luck/Game +1.9 Returning Production (Off. / Def.) 50% (56%, 43%) 2016 Second-order wins (difference) 6.7 (2.3)

The 2016 season was an unquestionable success for Idaho, but the Vandals might struggle to replicate that in their last FBS go-round. Among other things, a 4-0 record in one-possession games is hard to replicate, especially with Rehkow and the rare offensive big-play guys gone. But even if you think of Idaho as more of a seven-win team in 2016, that bar might also be hard to clear with this schedule.

S&P+ is a little bearish on Idaho because the Vandals don't stand out well in recent recruiting (deep into the 120s) or returning production (a below-average 50 percent) and because 2016 was a single successful season. And with a conservative projection, S&P+ basically sees one likely win, four likely losses, and seven games that range between 36 and 59 percent win probability.

It would be a shame if Idaho couldn't go out with another nice season, but last season showed us what Idaho might be capable of at a lower level. And while relegation is never a pleasant experience, there is, I guess, a benefit to punching in your weight class.

Idaho will probably be just fine in the Big Sky. More regional games, wins, playoff appearances, etc. Still, it's been a while since FBS lost a team to a lower level. And it's unfortunate.

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athlonsports · 8 years ago

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At least one CAA Football or Missouri Valley Football Conference team has appeared in the FCS national championship game in every season since 2002, yet the two top conferences in the subdivision haven’t been frequent dance partners.

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thecollegefootballguy · 5 years ago

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2019 Top Games of the Week: Week 7

Wow we’re really already at Week 7, can you believe it? Almost halfway done with the season. Any way, this might be the best week so far, four ranked vs ranked matchups and a handful of great rivalry games.

The Top Ten Games of the Week

10. Hawaii 4-1 (1-0) at #14 Boise State 5-0 (2-0)

Boise State is gunning for their first undefeated regular season since the Chris Petersen era. The Broncos look good enough to pull it off, but they still have a few challenging games left on the schedule. Hawaii looks even better than their turnaround season last year. The Rainbow Warriors are building and look like one of the contenders for the MWC West division. This old WAC series isn’t played as often with both teams now in the Mountain West, but this one certainly has higher stakes than any game played since that old league gave up football.

9. Nebraska 4-2 (2-1) at Minnesota 5-0 (2-0)

Iowa and Wisconsin are sucking up all the oxygen in the Big Ten West race, but both Nebraska and Minnesota are undefeated in division play and could make a run if they win the right games. The Gophers are undefeated period, and are one of the surprise stories of this early season. Their first competent win came last week against Illinois, but the Cornhuskers should be a much tougher task for Minnesota.

8. Texas Tech 3-2 (1-1) at #22 Baylor 5-0 (2-0)

For the first time in over ten years, these two rivals are playing an on-campus game, and it could be the most important game in the series in just as long. Like Minnesota, Baylor has been one of the more surprising teams so far. The Bears are also undefeated, but are relatively unchallenged aside from their close scrape with Iowa State. Texas Tech appears ahead of schedule after the Red Raiders held off Oklahoma State last Saturday. The middle of the Big 12 remains one of the more fascinating parts of college football in 2019.

7. #23 Memphis 5-0 (1-0) at Temple 4-1 (1-0)

The best game in the AAC takes the second G5 spot in the top ten. Memphis now has the clearest path of any American team to go undefeated and secure the NY6 bid. Aside from their curious loss to Buffalo, has also looked solid. The Owls are the Tigers’ hardest remaining road game and one of the biggest chances to upend Memphis.

6. USC 3-2 (2-1) at #9 Notre Dame 4-1

The greatest intersectional rivalry in college football makes the grade, as it does basically every year. Both teams are coming off bye weeks and should be well prepared for this game (for our purposes Bowling Green counts as a bye). USC has been hot and cold with a rotating QB cast. The Fighting Irish are definitely favored here but the Trojans could be one of the tougher teams ND faces as they make a case for the Playoff as a one-loss team.

5. Michigan State 4-2 (2-1) at #8 Wisconsin 5-0 (2-0)

If you thought Iowa-Michigan was a beautiful disaster of good defense and bad offense wait until you see Michigan State-Wisconsin. It’s going to be a rockfight in all the best and worst ways. The Spartans are so far the only team that’s even slowed down Ohio State, which leads me to think they can give the Badgers a ton of trouble. That said, if Wisconsin is a Playoff contender even close to OSU’s caliber, we can measure it here.

4. #1 Alabama 5-0 (2-0) at #24 Texas A&M 3-2 (1-1)

I want to believe A&M can challenge Alabama. I don’t. But I want to.

3. #10 Penn State 5-0 (2-0) at #17 Iowa 4-1 (1-1)

Boy we have a really good week if this game is only 3rd on the list. Penn State is this year’s Iowa City sacrifice. The Nittany Lions enter as this year’s Playoff hopeful that have to survive the ordeal of playing at Kinnick Stadium as a top ten team. We took a year off last season but 2017 ruined #3 Ohio State’s hopes and 2016 claimed #2 Michigan. Iowa only lost by a touchdown last year in Happy Valley. Godspeed PSU.

2. #7 Florida 6-0 (3-0) at #5 LSU 5-0 (2-0)

If you want to put this game up at the #1 spot be my guest, but I’m saving that for an even better rivalry game. As the only top ten game this week, Florida at LSU is hosting Gameday, which comes as no surprise. Florida pulled off an ugly but triumphant victory over Auburn last week. Most people, myself included, doubted the Gators’ ability to beat top flight competition. Now UF has an even tougher test as they head to Death Valley. LSU similarly hasn’t played a team this good yet, and has so far been untested at home. These are very likely the #2 teams in both divisions, so a win here would be critical for getting to the conference title game.

1. #6 Oklahoma 5-0 (2-0) vs #11 Texas 4-1 (2-0)

Well of course, the 115th playing of the Red River Shootout naturally takes the #1 spot with the stakes involved. Once again, Oklahoma and Texas are far and away the favorites to play for the Big 12 title and their yearly pilgrimage to the Cotton Bowl will help sort out that out. This could once again be a rematch in the Championship Game, but only the winner of this game will likely have their seat secure.

5 G5 Games of the Week

5. Army 3-2 at Western Kentucky 3-2 (3-0)

We get some smaller interesting games in the G5 Top 5 with two G5 games making the overall Top Ten. Army goes on the road against a surprisingly good Western Kentucky squad. The Hilltoppers were absolutely moribund last season, but have already taken down preseason favorite FIU and last year’s champion UAB.

4. San Jose State 3-2 (1-1) at Nevada 3-2 (0-1)

The Mountain West’s West Division is probably not the best in the G5, but it could be the most competitive. San Jose State is suddenly showing flashes of life for the first time in years. Nevada looked on the cusp of a breakthrough last season. The Wolf Pack haven’t yet filled that promise after getting blown out by Hawaii, but they can stay in the race and see how everything shakes out with a win here.

3. Wyoming 4-1 (1-0) at San Diego State 4-1 (1-1)

Wyoming and San Diego State make up the Mountain West’s robust middle class chasing Boise State for a shot at the league title. Both have their strengths and weaknesses but they’re coming in with momentum. Last week the Cowboys blew up UNLV and the Aztecs totally shut down Colorado State in Fort Collins.

2. Fresno State 2-2 (0-0) at Air Force 3-2 (1-1)

The trio of solid MWC games is capped off with 2017 and 2018 West Division champion going on the road to take on Air Force. The Falcons are always an upset threat with their option attack and the Bulldogs haven’t yet looked like the dangerous team we saw the past few seasons.

1. Appalachian State 4-0 (1-0) at Louisiana-Lafayette 4-1 (1-0)

This looks like the Sun Belt Championship Game as far as I’m concerned. With both Troy and Georgia Southern looking a step slower than their 2018 selves, the Mountaineers will likely run away with the East. With Arkansas State similarly looking a bit down and ULM not quite there yet, Louisiana-Lafayette should again with the West. App State has an undefeated season and a very remote shot at the NY6 bowl on the line, so I’m going to be keeping tabs on this one.

FCS Games of the Week

3. #3 South Dakota State 4-1 (1-0) at #19 Youngstown State 4-1 (0-1)

2. #10 Northern Iowa 3-2 (1-0) at #1 North Dakota State 5-0 (1-0)

South Dakota State and North Dakota State are on their inexorable march towards destiny. They both need to take care of business beforehand, and a tough trip to Youngstown State and hosting the punchy NIU Panthers are some of the more difficult games they’ll face in the regular season. I still expect both to win.

1. #5 Villanova 6-0 (3-0) at #2 James Madison 5-1 (2-0)

The CAA brings us a very interesting Top Five matchup, the second of the FCS season. Villanova has jumped from being unranked all the way to #5 by blazing through the first half of the season, only encountering a close game by way of fellow top ten conference-mate Towson. James Madison is still the perennial favorite, but this could be the Dukes’ toughest conference test this year.

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thecollegefootballguy · 5 years ago

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2019 Top Games of the Week: Week 6

Conference play is starting to ramp up and the conference races have taken shape. Week 6 offers us what could be the best single slate of games so far in 2019. The SEC and Big Ten spearhead a great mixture of Playoff relevant contests, while most other leagues have their fair share of intrigue. Not really in the ACC, but you can’t have everything.

The Top Ten Games of the Week

10. Pittsburgh 3-2 (0-1) at Duke 3-1 (1-0)

Hell, as far as I know this will decide the ACC Coastal. Virginia aside this division is a weird mix of teams and most of them are still in play except Georgia Tech. Pitt and Duke (but mostly Duke) has shown real promise this year. Somebody will challenge the Cavaliers, it might as well be these guys.

9. #11 Texas 3-1 (1-0) at West Virginia 3-1 (1-0)

I’ll admit I didn’t buy Texas as early as I should have. That’s not to say that I think the Longhorns will make the Playoff or anything, just that they’re clearly the #2 team in the Big 12 as far as I can tell. And if they beat Oklahoma again, well who knows? As for West Virginia, they Mountaineers seemed like they were headed in the wrong direction thanks to graduation attrition. But so far WVU has done a good job and has looked solid enough. Tom Herman’s achilles heel has been losing games he shouldn’t have, and a trip to Morgantown is never easy.

8. TCU 3-1 (1-0) at Iowa State 2-2 (0-1)

Two of the Big 12 dark horses are starting to look like they’re in a real bind. TCU’s loss to SMU was a nice black eye for the Horned Frogs. I get that the Mustangs are having a year but TCU usually beats them no matter what. Meanwhile, Iowa State was the popular choice in preseason to challenge mighty OU and UT as an outside bid for the conference crown. So far the Cyclones haven’t impressed. For both teams, it will be important to see if their slow starts are just a stumble out of the gate or a larger issue.

7. #21 Oklahoma State 4-1 (1-1) at Texas Tech 2-2 (0-1)

Oklahoma State is trying to separate itself from the rest of the pack in the Big 12. The Cowboys barely lost to Texas and looked good handling Kansas State. Texas Tech shouldn’t be the biggest hurdle OSU faces between now and Bedlam, but the wins have to keep coming to stay abreast in this very dense conference.

6. Baylor 4-0 (1-0) at Kansas State 3-1 (0-1)

The middle of the Big 12 is still sorting itself out. I’m not sure either of these teams are going to be the league dark horse, but at this point we have to just let the teams play and see what happens. This conference has a lot going on and my advice is to keep tabs on most Big 12 games when you can.

5. #18 UCF 4-1 (1-0) at Cincinnati 3-1 (0-0)

The rare G5 appearance in the Top 5 is worth it because this one will probably decide the AAC East. Unlike the West division, which is looking very much up for grabs at the moment, the East’s two best teams are clearly defined and face off Friday night. UCF suffered a major embarrassment at the hands of Pitt, but the Knights still are the major favorites in the conference. Meanwhile, Cincinnati has been quietly building a solid program. The Bearcats might not have enough firepower to take down Central Florida, but they blew up C-USA favorite Marshall last week which is very encouraging.

4. California 4-1 (1-1) at #13 Oregon 3-1 (1-0)

The PAC-12 is very much a conference in flux. The race isn’t about making the Playoff, but more just who’s going to come out on top with so many programs headed in different directions. Cal had a tough time scoring against Arizona State after QB Chase Garbers went down. Regardless of who is behind center this week, facing Oregon at Autzen is a daunting task. The Ducks have been the favorite for many, but so far their only challenging opponent beat them.

3. #25 Michigan State 4-1 (2-0) at #4 Ohio State 5-0 (2-0)

A team of Michigan State’s caliber will probably just be a speedbump for Ohio State, who have so far torn apart every squad unfortunate enough to face them. However, the Spartans aren’t governed by the laws of man or nature, and make every game way closer than it perhaps should be, for better or worse. It’s actually a bit scary now that Sparty has shown a bit of offense. That might not be enough to best the Buckeyes, but it could really throw off Michigan or Penn State down the line.

2. #14 Iowa 4-0 (1-0) at #19 Michigan 3-1 (1-1)

I think this is the most interesting matchup in Week 6. Iowa has looked very competent so far, albeit very untested. Michigan completely failed their test against Wisconsin, but the Wolverines reminded us what they’re capable of when they beat Rutgers so bad they fired their coach. I am really curious to see what happens here.

1. #7 Auburn 5-0 (2-0) at #10 Florida 5-0 (2-0)

The Auburn-Florida rivalry(?) has another matchup full of intrigue. The Tigers so far have one of the better resumes in this young season, having taken down PAC-12 favorite Oregon and SEC dark horse Texas A&M. Florida, meanwhile, has one of the least impressive resumes of any undefeated Power conference team. The Gators scraped by Miami and Kentucky and only blew out a reeling Tennessee squad. Now that UF is getting their first real test, let’s see how good they really are. Both of these teams have bigger games down the schedule, but a loss here would cripple their prospective Playoff aspirations.

5 G5 Games of the Week

5. Troy 2-2 (0-1) at Missouri 3-1 (1-0)

It’s the annual Troy special. The Trojans upset Nebraska last season and LSU in 2017. Let’s see if Troy can pull off the hat trick.

4. Tulsa 2-2 (0-0) at #24 SMU 5-0 (1-0)

SMU has emerged as a real contender for the AAC West. The Mustangs are off to their best start since the death penalty. Tulsa isn’t exactly a world beater at this point, but the Mustangs have to prove they’re consistent before they can even attempt to claim the AAC crown.

3. Tulane 3-1 (1-0) at Army 3-1

This game was scheduled back when Tulane and Army were doormat programs getting shoved around by every kid on the playground. Look at how far they’ve come. The Green Wave and Black Knights feature two of the most innovative option attacks in college football and already have claim to two of the most exciting games in this young season (Tulane’s comeback over Houston and Army’s near upset of Michigan).

2. Air Force 3-1 (1-1) at Navy 2-1 (1-1)

The first leg of the three-way Service Academy rivalry kicks off this weekend. Air Force and Navy both look like they’ve rebounded from pretty dismal seasons last year. This should be the most fierce competition for the Commander-in-Chief Trophy that we’ve seen in decades.

1. Western Michigan 3-2 (1-0) at Toledo 3-1 (0-0)

The MAC West might be decided pretty early. Western Michigan and Toledo have been the favorites and it’s likely that landscape hasn’t changed unless EMU or NIU wants to throw their hats into the ring. As far as I can tell nobody is winning the MAC East, so this game might could very well decide the whole conference.

FCS Games of the Week

4. #18 Youngstown State 4-0 (0-0) at #13 Northern Iowa 2-2 (0-0)

The MVFC will probably put about 4 teams into the Playoff, and these two are currently angling for that last spot. Youngstown State has been one of the nice stories so far, but the Penguins haven’t faced any hard competition like the battle tested Northern Iowa Panthers.

3. #2 James Madison 4-1 (1-0) at #24 Stony Brook 4-1 (1-0)

The CAA remains as stacked as ever. Surprisingly we only get one ranked vs ranked game from that league this week even though a full 6 out of 12 conference teams are in the top 25. James Madison probably wins here.

2. #11 Central Arkansas 3-1 (1-0) at #16 Nicholls State 2-2 (1-0)

Apparently Nicholls State is going by Nicholls now. Idk that feels weird to me. Any way, these are the two conference favorites, the winner here has a good chance to claim the Southland title this year.

1. #1 North Dakota State 4-0 (0-0) at #10 Illinois State 3-1 (0-0)

North Dakota State travels to Normal to face off against the top ten ranked Redbirds. I doubt the Bison lose here, but it’s foolish to pick them losing in any one particular game.

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