#Western Consulting Firm

[geeky360]

study in Dubai from Bangladesh

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[eclecticdabbler]

LA Fires - The cost of political lobbying?

"Awakening" Richard provides interesting perspectives on western geopolitics; from, as he likes to say, a Chinese perspective. He is an American citizen, schooled in US, but travels around the globe. He is quiet, thoughtful & respectful but clearly intelligent & not afraid to state his opinion. I appreciate his approach & insight. Here he presents a particular viewpoint on the LA fires (he lives in LA & has been evacuated); specifically, the way lobbying & payback works vis a vis "consulting" firms. Yet another form of corruption that drains billions from government coffers, enriching the few (impoverishing the many) & leaving little left to actually fix or improve anything. Also, includes heartbreaking video of a woman confronting "Governor" Nero Newscum over the destruction of her neighbourhood.

An enemy within is always a greater danger than the enemy outside.

[mariacallous]

On a stifling April afternoon in Ajmer, in the Indian state of Rajasthan, local politician Shakti Singh Rathore sat down in front of a greenscreen to shoot a short video. He looked nervous. It was his first time being cloned.

Wearing a crisp white shirt and a ceremonial saffron scarf bearing a lotus flower—the logo of the BJP, the country’s ruling party—Rathore pressed his palms together and greeted his audience in Hindi. “Namashkar,” he began. “To all my brothers—”

Before he could continue, the director of the shoot walked into the frame. Divyendra Singh Jadoun, a 31-year-old with a bald head and a thick black beard, told Rathore he was moving around too much on camera. Jadoun was trying to capture enough audio and video data to build an AI deepfake of Rathore that would convince 300,000 potential voters around Ajmer that they’d had a personalized conversation with him—but excess movement would break the algorithm. Jadoun told his subject to look straight into the camera and move only his lips. “Start again,” he said.

Right now, the world’s largest democracy is going to the polls. Close to a billion Indians are eligible to vote as part of the country’s general election, and deepfakes could play a decisive, and potentially divisive, role. India’s political parties have exploited AI to warp reality through cheap audio fakes, propaganda images, and AI parodies. But while the global discourse on deepfakes often focuses on misinformation, disinformation, and other societal harms, many Indian politicians are using the technology for a different purpose: voter outreach.

Across the ideological spectrum, they’re relying on AI to help them navigate the nation’s 22 official languages and thousands of regional dialects, and to deliver personalized messages in farther-flung communities. While the US recently made it illegal to use AI-generated voices for unsolicited calls, in India sanctioned deepfakes have become a $60 million business opportunity. More than 50 million AI-generated voice clone calls were made in the two months leading up to the start of the elections in April—and millions more will be made during voting, one of the country’s largest business messaging operators told WIRED.

Jadoun is the poster boy of this burgeoning industry. His firm, Polymath Synthetic Media Solutions, is one of many deepfake service providers from across India that have emerged to cater to the political class. This election season, Jadoun has delivered five AI campaigns so far, for which his company has been paid a total of $55,000. (He charges significantly less than the big political consultants—125,000 rupees [$1,500] to make a digital avatar, and 60,000 rupees [$720] for an audio clone.) He’s made deepfakes for Prem Singh Tamang, the chief minister of the Himalayan state of Sikkim, and resurrected Y. S. Rajasekhara Reddy, an iconic politician who died in a helicopter crash in 2009, to endorse his son Y. S. Jagan Mohan Reddy, currently chief minister of the state of Andhra Pradesh. Jadoun has also created AI-generated propaganda songs for several politicians, including Tamang, a local candidate for parliament, and the chief minister of the western state of Maharashtra. “He is our pride,” ran one song in Hindi about a local politician in Ajmer, with male and female voices set to a peppy tune. “He’s always been impartial.”

While Rathore isn’t up for election this year, he’s one of more than 18 million BJP volunteers tasked with ensuring that the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi maintains its hold on power. In the past, that would have meant spending months crisscrossing Rajasthan, a desert state roughly the size of Italy, to speak with voters individually, reminding them of how they have benefited from various BJP social programs—pensions, free tanks for cooking gas, cash payments for pregnant women. But with the help of Jadoun’s deepfakes, Rathore’s job has gotten a lot easier.

He’ll spend 15 minutes here talking to the camera about some of the key election issues, while Jadoun prompts him with questions. But it doesn’t really matter what he says. All Jadoun needs is Rathore’s voice. Once that’s done, Jadoun will use the data to generate videos and calls that will go directly to voters’ phones. In lieu of a knock at their door or a quick handshake at a rally, they’ll see or hear Rathore address them by name and talk with eerie specificity about the issues that matter most to them and ask them to vote for the BJP. If they ask questions, the AI should respond—in a clear and calm voice that’s almost better than the real Rathore’s rapid drawl. Less tech-savvy voters may not even realize they’ve been talking to a machine. Even Rathore admits he doesn’t know much about AI. But he understands psychology. “Such calls can help with swing voters.”

[beardedmrbean]

A British-educated businesswoman has denied allegations of manufacturing the pagers used in an audacious attack against Hezbollah.

The handheld devices killed at least 12 people and injured 3,000 after they simultaneously detonated across Lebanon and Syria on Tuesday afternoon in a suspected Israeli operation.

The Taiwanese company whose branding was on the technology claimed Budapest-based firm BAC Consultancy made the devices under a three-year brand licensing agreement.

But University College London (UCL) graduate Cristiana Barsony-Arcidiacono, the CEO of BAC Consultancy, said she was just a link in the supply chain and did not make the pagers.

“I do not make the pagers. I am just the intermediary. I think you got it wrong,” Ms Barsony-Arcidiacono told NBC News.

Around three grams of explosives are reported to have been placed into the AR-924 pagers in a sophisticated supply chain infiltration.

A Lebanese security source claimed Israel’s spy agency Mossad planted explosives in thousands of the devices months before they exploded, and one US official told Axios news the Israeli military moved to detonate the devices because it feared the sabotage plot had been exposed.

The Iran-backed militant group has vowed to retaliate against Israel, whose military declined to comment on the blasts.

Ms Barsony-Arcidiacono studied for a physics PhD at UCL between 2002 and 2006, according to her LinkedIn page.

She then went on to study at the London School of Economics and the University of London for various postgraduate qualifications between 2009 and 2017.

She also recently worked with the European Commission as an “evaluation expert” and as a “groundwater resource manager” for Unesco.

On her company’s website – which went offline on Wednesday morning – her work was described as “bridging technology and innovation from Asia”. The firm’s address was registered to a residential-looking two-storey building in Budapest, with its name posted on the glass door on an A4 sheet.

Hezbollah, which controls southern Lebanon, forms part of Iran’s so-called “axis of resistance”, which opposes Western and Israeli influence in the region.

A Hezbollah official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the detonation of the pagers was the “biggest security breach” the group had been subjected to in nearly a year of war with Israel.

The group opened a second front against Israel a day after the war in the Gaza Strip began, triggered by a Hamas attack inside Israel on 7 October.

Hamas, also backed by Tehran, killed around 1,200 people, with another 251 taken hostage. In response, Israel has bombarded Gaza from the air and ground.

[rjzimmerman]

Why Oil Companies Are Walking Back From Green Energy. (New York Times)

Excerpt from this New York Times story:

When oil and gas companies made ambitious commitments four years ago to curb emissions and transition to renewable energy, their businesses were in free fall.

Demand for the fuels was drying up as the pandemic took hold. Prices plunged. And large Western oil companies were hemorrhaging money, with losses topping $100 billion, according to the energy consulting firm Wood Mackenzie.

Renewable energy, it seemed to many companies and investors at the time, was not just cleaner — it was a better business than oil and gas.

“Investors were focused on what I would say was the prevailing narrative around it’s all moving to wind and solar,” Darren Woods, Exxon Mobil’s chief executive, said in an interview with The New York Times last week at a United Nations climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan. “I had a lot of pressure to get into the wind and solar business,” he added.

Mr. Woods resisted, reasoning that Exxon did not have expertise in those areas. Instead, the company invested in areas like hydrogen and lithium extraction that are more akin to its traditional business.

Wall Street has rewarded the company for those bets. The company’s stock price has climbed more than 70 percent since the end of 2019, lifting its market valuation to a record of nearly $560 billion in October, though it has since fallen to about $524 billion.

The American oil giant’s performance stands in contrast with BP and Shell, oil and gas companies based in London that embraced wind, solar and other technologies like electric-vehicle charging. BP’s stock has fallen around 19 percent in that time, based on trading in London, while Shell’s has climbed about 15 percent.

The market’s renewed acceptance of fossil fuels underscores one of the core challenges of curbing global emissions: Climate change poses risks that compound over decades. Scientists say every fraction of a degree of warming caused by fossil fuels brings greater risks from deadly heat waves, wildfires, drought, storms and species extinction. But investors are focused on making money over months and years.

“If we want to combat climate change, we need to make it in the firms’ and consumers’ self-interest to produce and buy the low-carbon alternatives,” said Christopher Knittel, a professor of energy economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

The election of Donald J. Trump, who has falsely described global warming as a hoax, has led to even greater optimism about the oil and gas business.

The difference in profits that companies can make from extracting oil and gas and what they can earn from harnessing wind and solar had already swung sharply in favor of fossil fuels in recent years.

The median return on capital among some of the world’s biggest investor-owned oil companies, a key measure of profitability, topped 11 percent last year, up from negative 8 percent in 2020, according to an analysis by S&P Global Commodity Insights. The median return over that same period for the top renewable energy companies has stayed around 2 percent.

[nearmidnightannex]

Rolling Stone goes IN on Kissinger

Their coverage is strikingly different from almost all of the rest of the US and most western media.

Whoever wrote the Daily Mail eulogy linked in the second Rolling Stone article is on the shiny shiny drugs. Also, the recommended tags that popped up for this were ... amusing, let's say.

Presented without further comment.

GOOD RIDDANCE Henry Kissinger, War Criminal Beloved by America’s Ruling Class, Finally Dies (rollingstone.com) The infamy of Nixon's foreign-policy architect sits, eternally, beside that of history's worst mass murderers. A deeper shame attaches to the country that celebrates him BY SPENCER ACKERMAN NOVEMBER 29, 2023

Henry Kissinger died on Wednesday at his home in Connecticut, his consulting firm said in a statement. The notorious war criminal was 100.

Measuring purely by confirmed kills, the worst mass murderer ever executed by the United States was the white-supremacist terrorist Timothy McVeigh. On April 19, 1995, McVeigh detonated a massive bomb at the Murrah federal building in Oklahoma City, killing 168 people, including 19 children. The government killed McVeigh by lethal injection in June 2001. [...]

McVeigh, who in his own psychotic way thought he was saving America, never remotely killed on the scale of Kissinger, the most revered American grand strategist of the second half of the 20th century.

The Yale University historian Greg Grandin, author of the biography Kissinger’s Shadow, estimates that Kissinger’s actions from 1969 through 1976, a period of eight brief years when Kissinger made Richard Nixon’s and then Gerald Ford’s foreign policy as national security adviser and secretary of state, meant the end of between three and four million people. That includes “crimes of commission,” he explained, as in Cambodia and Chile, and omission, like greenlighting Indonesia’s bloodshed in East Timor; Pakistan’s bloodshed in Bangladesh; and the inauguration of an American tradition of using and then abandoning the Kurds....

ZERO ACCOUNTABILITY Media, Conservatives Team Up to Lionize War Criminal Henry Kissinger The notorious U.S. diplomat responsible for millions of deaths died on Wednesday at the age of 100 BY CHARISMA MADARANG NOVEMBER 30, 2023

Henry Kissinger, a national security adviser and former secretary of state under two presidents, has evaded accountability, even after death. On Wednesday, the notorious war criminal responsible for the deaths of millions, died at the age of 100.

During his lifetime, Kissinger prolonged the Vietnam war and expanded it to Cambodia and Laos; green-lit Indonesia’s bloodshed in East Timor, Pakistan’s bloodshed in Bangladesh, and supported military coups in Chile and Argentina. According to Yale University historian Greg Grandin, author of the biography Kissinger’s Shadow, the estimated death toll for foreign policy policies tied to Kissinger is between 3 million and 4 million.

Yet the headlines following his death have been astonishingly void of accountability, but not surprising. Publications from both the left and right lionized the war criminal. The Wall Street Journal credited Kissinger as the man who “Helped Forge U.S. Foreign Policy During Vietnam and Cold Wars,” while BBC called him the “Divisive diplomat who towered over world affairs.” In a loaded headline, Daily Mail lauded the him as a “Nobel Prize winner who stared down the Soviets,” while also labeling Kissinger as a “VERY unlikely sex symbol.” [...]

[blade-that-was-broken]

Half Life Notes Pt. 2

So here is a bunch of notes for my Human AU, Half Life

Please note there are spoilers ahead that may be used for writing at some point. So proceed with caution!!

If you have any notes, suggestions or questions - don't be afraid to ask!

Brandy is actually one of Delta’s relatives best friends - Taylor. Spruce and Taylor kind of become friends through John. They get pretty close but not nearly enough to be romantically inclined with one another. She does start helping him get involved with stuff, whether it be with the family, school, etc. Spruce does learn some swimming from Brandy eventually but is able to float and stuff before then. Anyway, Brandy spent the semester as an exchange student abroad and came back in time for summer. Taylor talks about her and eventually introduces them, thinking they will get along. She’s right. Like very right. She becomes invested in getting them involved romantically; it’s kind of hilarious. 

Floyd is actually the one who scratches Spruce’s CD. He wanted to listen to it as he got more into music and wants to know why his brother loves it so much. Spruce freaks out because it’s the only one and he can’t find the songs anywhere else. 

Eugene 100% has an old stage at his place, possibly under a roof or in the barn and they do karaoke and performances there. He and Constance host tons of family friendly parties and other events for both their family and the community. 

Floyd is actually a music prodigy. He quickly picks up instruments and music things far quicker than anyone expects. Does school solo and ensemble and rocks it. Features in his choirs and probably joins the swing choir. 

Clay joins baseball and loves the rivalry with another school. He also likes the fact he can hit a ball as hard as he can. It helps with his anger. He isn’t bad either. He’s also big into sad books, which worries John. He’s a bit of a math whiz. 

JD sometimes thinks he got all the dumbass genes. 

Spruce eventually does want John to have some happiness and encourages him at some point to start dating. Clay catches on and confronts him. He’s not happy about it (he’s scared to lose the Dawn family, their support and some of his friends) but Spruce tells him John literally gave up his life for them so deserves something. They both, however, kinda want John and Delta to be together. 

Clay and Spruce join 4-H. Clay learns to ride horses and shows them. He even joins one of the drill teams (this is where he meets Viva). He is keen on learning a lot of disciplines and picks up with English and Western riding. He’s one of the few boys involved in some of that (outside of rodeo stuff) and so he’s pretty popular with the other girls. 

Spruce does cooking and baking, mostly in 4-H. He bonds with Sofia and Constance with baking, jams and other things. He bonds with Declan and Eugene and a few others with grilling, meats and other cooking dishes. John teaches him to fish. 

Viva is in Clay’s 4-H club and also rides horses. They don’t really interact at school in the beginning but become buddies at drill team and it blossoms from there. They kind of become rivals a little. Clay picked up riding fast - as he wants to prove to everyone he can - and Viva has been riding her entire life. They become partners at drill and once it starts, it does not stop. 

Poppy is a newborn at the beginning of the story, making her about a little less than a year younger than Branch. Peppy is the leader of the area (perhaps the next town since the one John lives in is so small? I’m not sure yet how that works honestly)

Sofia watches over several of her family’s kids frequently and volunteers at the nursery at church often when she is not consulting at a law firm/taking the odd case. Has considered opening a daycare. She’s a serious empty nester. 

County Fair in summer.

This may be how Spruce finds out about John’s old garage band. Spruce and his buddies sneak in when it is late and minors aren’t supposed to be there. John is reunited with some of his old high school buddies after one dies and they invite him to do a performance. One of said old high school buddies became a musician and still sells their single CD and advertises them. Brandy is the one who notices and she races to find Spruce. She is one of the few that have been able to listen to the CD he loves. 

John gets more involved with school activities as time goes on and he adjusts. He goes on walks with Rhonda and Branch and pretty much becomes known as the hot dad where he walks /shrugs//

One time Clay lets it slip about something his father did one time to Viva during drill and she told the most powerful and strong person she knew (her dad), scared for her friend. It was a bit early in their friendship. He didn’t go to anyone, but he confronted John at his house and pretty much openly threatened him, even though John had literally no idea what he was talking about. Clay is furious with Viva because he finds out/hears and it is so awkward. 

Clay confronts Viva and almost blows up on her. When he explains, she apologizes but Clay is so upset because this could interfere with John’s custody and doesn’t know if he can forgive her. 

John does tell him that it’s fine and not to worry and that he should not let this come between him and Viva. She didn’t know and wanted to help him. 

Peppy maaayyyyyy go talk to JD again to apologize. As he should. 

Yes, Branch’s first words are calling John dad. He learns to talk a fair bit before actually speaking anything. So it might even be a full sentence. 

John does teach Floyd guitar and some piano. He takes on it extraordinarily quickly. 

Spruce gets worried his new buddies will think he is weird for liking to bake. Haha, NO because they LOVE to eat and not only to make requests but LOVE being taste testers. (Literally I’ve never known a man who was upset that another man could bake/cook cause dudes love to eat. My HS cooking class was ALWAYS full.)

Floyd likes games; video games, board games, card games etc. He loves Mario especially and finds his voice hilarious. 

JD can draw fairly well and might be something that Branch picks up eventually. 

Rhonda loves all the boys and is protective of all of them but she hangs around Branch a lot and is protective of him, especially when he starts walking. It’s probably because he is the youngest and she knows he can defend himself the least. She also has a soft spot for Spruce (we think it’s more emotional) and he is more active in her life. John is her go to always. 

JD is an introvert forced to be an extrovert. 

Spruce and Clay - extrovert 

Floyd - introvert/ambivert 

Branch - introvert

They all bond with Delta somehow. Idk entirely how yet. 

She teaches Clay how to ride and might even lead his drill team. 

Floyd struggles to not see JD as a dad. 

JD, even when convinced to attempt dating, thinks it won’t work with him raising his brothers. 

JD and his old garage band get back together when one of them dies and he goes to the funeral. Spruce goes with him. When JD goes up to the mother, she talks about how much he loved JD and how proud she is of what he has done. She kisses his forehead and is a general sweetheart. 

They end up getting together and talking. One of the guys is a musician and has used the CD they made when they were kids to help his career. He gives JD some money to try and give him a share, saying it wasn’t enough. JD doesn’t want to take it but he insisted. 

Upon finding out about John’s bonds with the Dawn family, he feels replaced, especially when he walks around John’s house for the first few days. There weren’t many photos, just a few of John and Delta and a few other people. 

He doesn’t realize these photos are mostly celebratory wins for John when it came to his custody battle and such. 

Clay has a temper and tends to hold a grudge until he feels justice has been served. He has noticed his parent’s neglect in the form of rarely being around, clothes that no longer fit and some restriction of food. Clay has learned to eat almost anything, despite hating a lot of goods.

Clay doesn’t see a lot of abuse that went around. He has been put down sometimes but rarely hit. He has been so goofy and clumsy, his parents seemed to get mad at him less but they think he’s an idiot. He realized this and has a growing concern of being perceived that way once he’s safe. 

Floyd can be sensitive and hates conflict. He loves music and dreams of being a musician but has learned quickly his parents do not think he is capable or are supportive of that route. He has also learned things are okay when he is quiet, small and unnoticeable. He does not make a ruckus. So unless he is with his brothers, Floyd does not talk a lot and has never told anyone his inclination for music since he was very young. Clay knows, only by accident until it is revealed when John gets custody of them. 

His mother has hit him twice, each time apologizing profusely that he has accepted. 

He is a bit gullible and forgives easily because he doesn’t like being upset with loved ones, since he doesn’t have many. 

Spruce was furious when he found out his parents were pregnant with Branch. He didn’t say anything until Branch was born and when he let his displeasure slip, he got hit and wasn’t allowed near the baby for six months. Spruce didn’t care much, as he wasn’t happy about the baby and he was angry at John who was not sneaking visits and phone calls anymore.

It was late one night and his parents weren’t around and the baby was crying. He went to the crib and Spruce picked him up and brought him to his room. The baby crawled around and eventually found a pair of JD’s goggles. He seemed to like them and Spruce started telling him about their older brother, as well as some of the theories why John hadn’t contacted them. “He doesn’t know about you. He might not ever know about you.” 

Spruce became the caregiver for the baby after that. He knew it wouldn’t be long until Branch was in the same boat as the rest of them. They liked the new baby smell and the cute little children. 

Spruce is called Bruce by his old friends who are embarrassed by his real name. This leads to him having negative thoughts and feelings about his name. But then he remembers his brother is named after a fish and he feels better. 

[peterplautz1]

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[robingentile01]

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[sunjaynath-blog]

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[geeky360]

study in china from bangladesh

Studying in China has become an increasingly popular choice for Bangladeshi students due to its world-class universities, diverse academic programs, and affordable tuition fees. China offers a unique blend of rich culture and cutting-edge innovation, providing students with an enriching experience both academically and socially.

Western Consulting Firm is your trusted partner in navigating the entire process of studying in China. From selecting the right university and program to handling visa applications, we ensure a seamless transition to your dream education abroad. Our experts provide personalized guidance on scholarship opportunities, application procedures, and accommodation arrangements.

China boasts globally ranked universities such as Tsinghua University, Peking University, and Fudan University, offering degrees in engineering

[ahb-writes]

Hi! I am not sure if this is the right way to do an ask, and I am not sure if you are the right person to ask, but in my worldbuilding, I am primarily basing my world off of an extrapolation of medieval alchemy.

Medieval alchemy is highly based off of works of arabic alchemists, and so on the one hand, I would like to incorporate arabic into my naming convention for vehicles (I am not worrying about characters yet).

On the other hand, I am an american with very little if any connection to cultures which use arabic, and I don't want to unwittingly stumble into a situation where I misuse the language and it becomes a source of problems for me or other people later. I have felt comfortable using greek and latin in naming convention because of their well-known connections to scientific naming schemes and alchemy.

I don't want to inadvertently offend anyone with my setting's design, but the language looks cool, and seems like it would fit really well given my setting's ties, is this something where sufficient research can help me do it properly? Is it something I should avoid to make sure that I am not offending anyone?

Again, apologies if you aren't the right person to ask or this isn't the right way to do an ask.

For clarity and direction on how to model and shape your worldbuilding efforts from a perspective of cultural sensitivity, you may consider consulting the fine folks over at Writing With Color; @writingwithcolor; who have assembled a delightful "general topics" masterpost that includes sections on worldbuilding and character building (creation and culture).

As for borrowing and adjusting naming conventions of other languages, never apologize for curiosity. Sometimes, we simply don't know something is mistake until we ask ourselves, "Wait, is this a mistake?"

To start, Islamic researchers, scientists, academics, and thinkers formed the foundation of what much of the world considers to be "modern" mathematics, astronomy, geography, linguistic scholarship and language translation, medicine, poetry, and more. It's easy and tempting to segregate different historical cultures or regions as we go back in time, but the truth is that it's all intertwined and mixed up (fun fact: We all use Arabic. It's just that most of us don't know it.). Arabic contributions to the Spanish language in particular? That's a serious rabbit hole of research. Global influence of Islamic architecture? Highly fascinating, and research that fills several peer-reviewed journals, textbooks, and dictionaries. Old libraries? Check out the history surrounding the House of Wisdom, also known as the Grand Library of Baghdad (destroyed in 1258 CE), for one of many examples.

I begin with this exploration of cultural mesh because when building a fantasy world that includes glimpses, touches, or influences from known historical periods, you have to dig around to know from where (or what) you're starting. You can't create something new and firm if you don't first have a solid idea of where you're starting from.

In the case of a fantasy environment that focuses on alchemy, with elements from the Arabic language and ostensibly from historical Islamic scientists, consider narrowing your focus those areas of study that will most heavily influence your story.

Curious about intellectual movements? Science? Medicine? A deep-dive into the Arabic Enlightenment may help (The House of Wisdom: How Arabic Science Saved Ancient Knowledge and Gave Us the Renaissance by Jim al-Khalili; The House of Wisdom: How the Arabs Transformed Western Civilization by Jonathan Lyons). Art and natural science? Search for resources that offer a passing glance on the origins of science in medieval Islam (Science in Medieval Islam: An Illustrated Introduction by Howard Turner).

The point is to take a few steps back, before you take a few steps forward. You can get around not knowing the language, and you can circumnavigate your lack of firsthand experience with a culture, by deepening your knowledge of the language's origin and of the culture's most essential inflection points.

But it's all connected (e.g., I've worked my way through dozens of sources of medieval combat and warfare, and the same is true of arms, armor, and fortifications). Ultimately, you have to find your starting point (and stick to it). It's a lot of work, I know. But you don't have to read whole books. For example, you can try snagging a .pdf, and then read only two or three chapters, since those areas are the most relevant to your research needs (e.g., al-Khalili's book has chapters called, "The Lonely Alchemist," "Big Science," and "The Physicist," and Turner's book has a chapter on alchemy, plus separate chapters on astronomy and non-scientific astrology).

By understanding the foundation for the disciplines you use and the foundational cultures from which you take inspiration and influence: your language choices will be more accurately-sourced; your worldbuilding choices will be more detailed and lived-in; and your framing and contextualizing of these terms and influences will be more realistic and consistent.

[mariacallous]

Strange things are happening in Russia these days. In early October, the country inked a deal to sell chickpeas to Pakistan in exchange for mandarin oranges. A few weeks later, the Russian government advised international participants traveling to the southwestern city of Kazan for the BRICS summit to bring cash in U.S. dollars or euros, as major credit card companies such as Visa and Mastercard have suspended operations on Russian soil since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in 2022.

During the BRICS summit, a Chinese official mentioned that Russia is facing “serious difficulties” with paying its membership fees to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation; the official blamed Western sanctions. As if this were not enough, the comment came on the same day that the Kremlin had to cancel bond auctions to issue nearly 600 billion Russian rubles (around $6 billion) in sovereign debt for lack of buyers.

These examples might sound trivial, but taken together, they highlight how all might not be going hunky-dory for the Russian economy—contrary to the Kremlin’s claims that Western sanctions are ineffective and Russian GDP growth is booming. Like a cash-strapped household pretending that all is well while quietly burning through emergency savings, Moscow is trying to project economic normalcy by tapping into its vast financial buffers.

This is not a sustainable strategy: Without fresh inflows of cash, even the largest of savings only last for a while. Russia could soon struggle to preserve costly social stability at home while waging its expensive war against Ukraine.

To understand Russia’s economic troubles, looking at inflation is a good starting point. Official statistics are fishy, but even without consulting them, it’s easy to see that price growth is an issue in Russia. First, the ruble has lost one-third of its value against the U.S. dollar since early 2022, inflating the price of imports and therefore fueling inflation.

Second, Russian firms are struggling to hire because of the combined impact of a shrinking population; a high death toll from the COVID-19 pandemic; and the war in Ukraine, which has killed or seriously wounded 2 percent of Russian men between the ages of 20 and 50, and is causing an exodus of highly skilled workers. To attract workers, Russian companies are raising wages, again fueling inflation. Third, the Kremlin believes that it can buy social stability by showering people with generous handouts—another inflationary factor.

Central bankers like to raise interest rates when inflation is high, seeking to tame price growth by weighing on demand. The Central Bank of Russia has applied these principles to the letter; since mid-2023, it has gradually increased its key rate to a whopping 21 percent. Russian companies are feeling the pinch. This week, Sergei Chemezov, the CEO of state-owned defense conglomerate Rostec, declared that high interest rates are eating into profits so much that most Russian industrial firms could soon go bankrupt. But there is a catch: Because of its obsession with social stability, Moscow is working to negate the impact of high interest rates on the population.

A recent scheme for subsidized loans provides an example of this. Since 2020, millions of Russians have signed up for real estate loans at a cheap rate of 8 percent, while the government has reimbursed banks for the difference between that face rate and the 20 percent or more that higher central bank rates should command. That policy might well boost economic growth in the short term, but it comes with high costs: Home prices in Russia have tripled since 2020, suggesting a real estate bubble that could soon burst. The scheme also comes with a roughly $5 billion price tag for the Kremlin.

Russia’s bigger fiscal picture looks dire. On the expenses side, war is costly, and defense spending keeps rising to record highs: Military expenses will make up 40 percent of Russia’s public spending in 2025, for an eye-popping $142 billion. (National security and “classified” expenses will absorb another 30 percent of Russia’s federal budget.) Russia is also splurging to preserve social stability. In the next six years, the Kremlin plans to spend $431 billion on all sorts of social projects, including sending children to summer camps in occupied Crimea, building brand-new student campuses across Russia, and raising the minimum wage by no less than 10 percent per year.

The revenue side of the fiscal balance does not look any better. Excluding dividends, Russia’s state-owned gas giant Gazprom used to provide around 10 percent of the Kremlin’s fiscal revenues. Such largesse is over: After losing access to the European market, Gazprom recorded a $6.8 billion loss in 2023, making it impossible for the company to transfer money to state coffers. (Gazprom sent $40 billion to the Russian Ministry of Finance in 2022.)

Things could soon get even worse. In a few weeks, a deal allowing the transit of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine will expire, cutting down Moscow’s remaining gas exports to the European Union by half and Russian total gas sales by one-third—for an expected loss of $6.5 billion per year for Gazprom.

Russia only has a few options to find new income streams. Sustained economic growth would raise fiscal revenues through higher taxes, but labor shortages mean that this is not a credible plan. A few weeks ago, the deputy governor of Russia’s central bank acknowledged that “available production capacity is depleted.” With social stability a constraining factor, Moscow can only apply fiscal Band-Aids.

Current plans include imposing higher taxes on wealthy households—for a mere $1.5 billion a year, or less than 3 percent of total income tax receipts—and raising tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. It is not clear what Beijing will think of these protectionist measures in light of the supposedly unlimited friendship that binds Russia and China; Russian President Vladimir Putin has previously called U.S. tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles “unfair.”

With ever-rising expenses and dwindling revenues, Russia is now posting an annual fiscal deficit of nearly 2 percent of its GDP. For most economies, this is not an issue. Such a small shortfall can typically easily be financed through debt issuance. But Western sanctions have turned Russia into a pariah on the global financial scene, making it impossible for it to tap global debt markets. Moscow’s plan B was to tap domestic bond markets, but things are not going well on this front, either. Despite having to cancel auctions this month for lack of buyers, the Kremlin has penciled in issuing $25 billion in domestic bonds by the end of the year. So far, it is not getting anywhere.

With debt issuance out of the equation, Russia is now forced to turn to plan C: tapping into its savings. On paper, such a strategy could work for a while thanks to the vast holdings that Moscow accumulated in its National Wealth Fund (NWF) in the 2010s. However, these savings are now drying up: The liquid part of the fund has shrunk by more than half since the start of the war in Ukraine, to just $54 billion in September. Last year, the government stopped saving money in its NWF. Moscow is now resorting to selling the portion of its NWF reserves that it holds in gold; the fund’s gold reserves have shrunk by around half, or about 262 tons of gold, since early 2022.

Russia is depleting its rainy-day holdings, and this cannot last forever. Even assuming high global oil prices, the Kremlin’s 2024 budget includes a further $13 billion drop in NWF holdings this year, or about a quarter of the fund’s liquid reserves. Looking ahead, the NWF’s liquid reserves cover just around a year and a half of budget deficit. This assessment might prove optimistic: It assumes that official fiscal data is trustworthy—some experts believe that Russia’s fiscal deficit could be closer to 5 percent of its GDP—and that the global economy won’t suffer from major shocks. If global growth were to tank, the Central Bank of Russia estimates that the NWF’s liquid reserves could vanish in less than a year.

In September, Kyrylo Budanov, Ukraine’s defense intelligence chief, told attendees at a conference in Kyiv that Russia will try to force an end to the war in 2025, when the Kremlin could start facing genuine economic problems. This analysis might not be too far from the truth—and it will be useful to keep it in mind as calls for negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow grow louder every day.

[beardedmrbean]

Namibian Michelle Nehoya has spent nearly $500 (£390) on the application process for a visa to visit Canada - but almost two years later it has yet to materialise.

The 38-year-old, who lives in Namibia's capital, Windhoek, is desperate to get to Quebec to see her aunt and cousins whom she has not seen for almost a decade.

The visa application has involved filling in multiple forms - and among other requirements, she has also had to provide six months of bank statements, an invitation letter plus a detailed travel history.

There is no way to apply in Namibia, so this has also meant travelling to South Africa to submit her biometric data, which involves giving her fingerprints and having a photo taken.

Her experience is not uncommon for Africans travelling to Western countries.

In 2022, seven of the top 10 countries with the highest visa rejection rates in the bloc of European countries known as the Schengen area were African, according to consultancy firm Henley and Partners.

“It has been lengthy and frustrating. I haven’t been given any reason why it’s taken so long," Ms Nehoya tells the BBC.

However, if her family in Quebec decide to travel to Namibia on Canadian passports, they will not face anything like the challenges and costs she encountered. Canadian citizens can currently enter Namibia without a visa.

But this will change in eight months’ time.

From next April, Canadian nationals, along with those from Germany, the US, the UK and 29 other countries, will require a visa for entry.

These include all “non-reciprocating countries” - meaning the new visa rules will affect citizens from all countries that require Namibian passport holders to have visas.

“Namibia has extended gestures of goodwill and favourable treatment to nationals of various countries. However, despite these efforts, certain nations have not reciprocated,” Namibia’s immigration ministry said in May.

“In light of this disparity, the government has deemed it necessary to implement a visa requirement to ensure parity and fairness in diplomatic interactions.”

But these visitors will be able to buy their 90-day visa, costing $90, on arrival in Namibia - unlike the onerous requirements placed on African passport holders who need to get their visas beforehand.

The British High Commissioner to Namibia, Charles Moore, said he respected the right of Namibia to impose new regulations.

“[The UK] unfortunately imposed a visa regime on Namibia last year due to the number of asylum seekers we were receiving. That was impacting on our relationship with Namibia,” he said.

A statement from the UK government further explained there had been a sustained and significant increase in the number of asylum applications from Namibians at the UK border since 2016.

“This constitutes an abuse of the provision to visit the UK for a limited period as non-visa nationals,” it said.

For Ms Nehoya, Namibia’s visa announcement is long overdue: “I think it is fair. It feels like Namibia is standing up for itself.”

The reactions on social media to the news echo her sentiments.

“Finally. I hope they also require them to submit a bible of documents, take medical tests, [and] Namibian language tests,” wrote one commenter.

Another said: “If I need to bring bank statements… and all sort of documents and still buy visa just to gain entry to a country, that country should also do the same to gain entry to my country.”

And visas for the Schengen area, the US and Canada do not come cheap for African passport holders.

The European Union made more than €53m ($58m; £45m) on rejected visa applications from African countries in 2023, according to a recent report by the Lago Collective, a think-tank that focuses on migration.

Visas can be rejected for multiple reasons. The report says most rejections are based on “reasonable doubt about the visa applicant’s intention to return home”.

In June 2024, the price of Schengen short-term visas went up from €80 to €90 for adults, and in October 2023, the UK visa fee rose from £100 to £115.

The report also showed that nearly a third of Africans applying for a visa to the Schengen area were rejected, higher than the global average.

Even when visas are approved, African travellers say their experiences at border security make them feel uncomfortable and unwanted.

Winnie Byanyima, the head of UNAids and who is herself Ugandan, drew attention to this when she tweeted in 2022: “I’m at Geneva airport, I’m almost refused to board, all documents scrutinised over and over again, calls made… I board last.”

Despite Namibia’s visa initiative receiving praise on social media, the tourism industry is less enthusiastic.

The Hospitality Association of Namibia said it was “very concerned” about the message it “sends to the global travel trade”.

In 2022, the tourism sector accounted for 7% of GDP, making it the third largest contributor to the economy - with most tourists coming countries such as Germany and the US.

Though Soni Nrupesh, a tourism expert based in Windhoek, believes the visa move will not deter visitors: “It will not change much; you can still get on a plane without a visa.

“It’s just when you get to the airport you will fill a form pay the fees and enter.”

Prospective travellers like Ms Nehoya hope this kind reciprocity will be the future for everyone.

“People come to Namibia, and they love it. But we also want to see what is happening on the other side,” she says.

“It would be nice to go to Canada, the US or the UK and just get a visa on arrival. But right now, we must plan everything so far in advance.”

[rjzimmerman]

Excerpt from this story from the New York Times:

In February, the United States did something that it had not done in many years — the country sent more electricity to Canada than it received from its northern neighbor. Then, in March, U.S. electricity exports to Canada climbed even more, reaching their highest level since at least 2010.

The increasing flow of power north is part of a worrying trend for North America: Demand for energy is growing robustly everywhere, but the supply of power — in Canada’s case from giant hydroelectric dams — and the ability to get the energy to where it’s needed are increasingly under strain.

Many energy experts say Canadian hydroelectric plants, which have had to reduce electricity production because of a recent drop in rain and snow, will eventually bounce back. But some industry executives are worried that climate change, which has already been linked to the explosive wildfires in Canada last year, could make it harder to predict when rain and snowfall will return to normal.

“We’ve all got to be humble in the face of more extreme weather,” said Chris O’Riley, president and chief executive of the British Columbia Hydro and Power Authority, which operates hydroelectric dams in western Canada. “We manage from year to year the ups and downs of water, and when we have the downs like we’re having, the lower levels, it’s common for us to import power, and we expect to continue that this year.”

The United States and Canada have long relied on each other because power use tends to peak north of the border during the winter when Canadians use electric heaters, and American electricity use peaks in the summer during air-conditioning season.

The abundance of Canada’s hydroelectric power has been a cornerstone of the trade, providing relatively low-cost renewable energy to California, Oregon, Washington State, New York State and New England.

But the supply-and-demand equation for energy is changing. Demand for electricity in many states has been climbing sharply in summer and winter. Some experts predict that winter electricity demand in the United States could eclipse summer demand by 2050.

At the same time, utilities are increasingly reliant on intermittent resources like solar and wind power. Large hydroelectric plants, once considered a stable source of electricity, have struggled with low reservoirs in California, around Hoover Dam and recently in Canada.

“We are facing real changes in the weather, and we’re finding out in real time how that’s going to affect hydroelectric operations, pretty much across North America,” said Robert McCullough of McCullough Research, a firm based in Portland, Ore., who has been a consultant for corporate customers of Canadian utilities since the 1980s.

[thehellsitenewsie]

Foreign firms' losses from exiting Russia top $107 billion (Reuters)

March 28 (Reuters) - The corporate exodus from Russia since its 2022 invasion of Ukraine has cost foreign companies more than $107 billion in writedowns and lost revenue, a Reuters analysis of company filings and statements showed.

The volume of losses have increased by one third since the last tally in August last year, underscoring the scale of the financial hit to the corporate world from Moscow's invasion, as well as highlighting the sudden loss of Western expertise from Russia's economy.

"As Russia's invasion continues amid faltering Western military aid, and the granularity of Western sanctions regimes increases, companies still aiming to exit Russia will likely face further difficulties and have to accept greater writedowns and losses," said Ian Massey, Head of Corporate Intelligence, EMEA, at global risk consultancy S-RM.

President Vladimir Putin, fresh from securing re-election in a landslide victory widely condemned in the West as unfair and undemocratic, now has a renewed mandate to pursue further isolation from the West, including through additional asset seizures and political pressure, Massey added.

Moscow demands discounts of at least 50% on foreign asset sales and has steadily tightened exit requirements, often accepting nominal fees as little as one rouble.

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