#This was not what I expected to wake up to today but its Nov.3 so why not.
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bllsbailey · 18 days ago
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What the Hell Is Going on in Nevada?
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Nevada’s early voting again showed another solid day for Republicans. It’s remarkable—what the hell is going on in this state? No, we’re not calling anything here. Still, two things that local political observers have been noting here with these totals is that a) this remains an event unseen in the Reid Machine era, and b) Republicans have learned that voting early isn’t so bad. Or, at the very least, they’ve focused on carving out time to get it done beforehand. 
Jon Ralston described yesterday’s totals, saying it’s “unheard of at this point in any other presidential cycle” regarding the red surge we’re seeing. It’s now reached a point where Democrats should be worried come Election Day, though Ralston also said that he feels that this race will be super tight, though not a shoo-in like in previous cycles. The GOP has done well to chip away at the firewalls in Democratic bastions (via Nevada Independent): 
SOS is reporting today's ballots, and I now feel like I am in the upside-down world. In past cycles, I would be telling you how the Dems were slowly building a firewall in Clark (tens of thousands more ballots than Republicans). They have successfully done this in every presidential election since 2008.  But the opposite is happening: Thanks to a rural tsunami, the GOP has moved out to a substantial ballot lead: 18,500 ballots, or almost 5 points  The rural firewall, the R advantage in the 15 smaller counties:  21,000 ballots,  The Clark firewall is at 5,000, or just 2.5 points in a place where Dems have a nearly 7 percent registration edge.  In Washoe, the swing urban county, Rs have a 4 point lead, just above their registration advantage.  Nearly 400,000 people have cast ballots, or just under 20 percent of registered voters. If turnout is 1.4 million out of the 2 million registered voters, that means almost 30 percent of the vote is in.  There is no good news in these numbers for Dems, who are basing their hopes on a deluge of mail ballots coming in during the final days and perhaps the day or two after the election (They can be counted for four days after Nov. 5.) and a very favorable split among indies in urban Nevada.  There are about 100,000 non-major party voters in the mix, or 12 percent of their total – that’s substantially lower than the turnout by both major parties and part of the reason I think we should discount most Nevada polls. No one knows how they will break, although Dems are optimistic because they skew young, as Andy Bloch has pointed out.  But even if Kamala Harris has a 10-point lead among indies in the current makeup of the electorate, if Trump is holding his base, he is ahead by 6,000 votes or so. Not a lot, but a lead nevertheless.  Clark is turning out at about 3 points under its share of the electorate while Washoe is about 1 point below and the rurals are now 4 points above their share. That explains the GOP lead pretty succinctly. Seems unlikely that will hold as Clark ballots pour in, but we shall see.  I expect another mail dump late tonight that will help the Dems, but the Rs will still have a big lead when we wake up tomorrow. 
Some exciting stuff is happening out west. Let’s see if it holds.
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symbio-ratio · 4 years ago
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No I am not the Ray-Bans folks
I just want to warn folks because I see there are notes on the post. If you got tagged in this:
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Don't touch the post. Don't like it. Don't reblog it. Don't even comment on it. It's a virus thing that'll make your account post this post to further spread it.
There are other posts talking about this virus and I'll link it after this goes live because I gotta find it, but since these were the people tagged, I'm tagging y'all with this. Hi, hello, please forgive me for this.
@soukei @i-am-on-wattpad-2 @steveharringtonsbutt @aleluyalposmero @quu-san @gotterhag @unstxble-boy @string-o-lights @im-a-dragon-cawcaw @aleistereusford @deadgirltryingtosurvive @dovecraftian @ashton1236 @scented-thoughts-blog @makathybean @kustard2002 @potatoouo @whatsappwazzup @lovingherringtoadfan @fizure @aixanell @original-christmas-cloud @summergreenrose @shu----shhhhh @escritoradearaque @everlastingum @mazelcake @beckyarteest @cuteosuaris @emeliaairhead @sufanwinnie @maxfirebrandstudio @notyetneedcoffee @amnesiac-protagonists @whitwoch @tabylea @kasseiopia @hecate-magick @cheersbtm @avariantofroar @achristos @jaedeadd @kneecapstealingalien @mr-pip @girl-whose-name-is-belly @team-free-will-spn @plans-never-go-write @black-belly-bella @justcairo @kittrdg @sarriane @pixelsize @dis-binch @abeesnail @disinfectant-antiseptic @slimy-snake-boi @zebra823 @midnite-snackin @thenightling @trynabereal @daemonfiend @geekwithinthestory @whatthefluffnightvale @peppadewpasta @smol-wincheeseter
@toribug2020​ @thebeaten-thedamned​ @brajeshlodhee​ @dude-waht​ @vaguelys​ @transgirlpidgey​ @thegreatandpowerfultrisha​ @iamyournightlightnow​ @raine-needs-help​ @dontnotpanic​ @sugoibootyboy​ @theaveragedorkyoudexpect​ @crappybisexualbear​ @thathopelessopus​ @lilium2034​ @amitose​ @josiethecreator​ @doodlean​ @trash-nomad​ @im-the-ant​ @hopeless-noodle​ @crazypotatocreature​ @floofdoesart​ @tlneunm​ @steadyfanwobblertrash​ @mewlithebubble​ @esdaaa​ @superbdeancloudslime​ @melpereira12468​ @fauxsuedois​ @starlyn66​ @squirrel666​ @bees-are-my-thing-bro​ @andrealucerofans​ @jkikikat​ @mintea-in-space​
Tumblr says I can only tag 50 people but I don't know if the rest of the names actually got tagged so I left them there. I had to hand type all those I could tag because copy and pasting didn't work (and then some of those folks wouldn't even tag) so bear with me. I just don't want to see this spread because folks don't understand. I don't know if those 7-8 notes on both of the Ray-Bans posts are bots or actual people but better safe than sorry.
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quinnybee-writes · 5 years ago
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Title: Fire Meet Gasoline
Fandom: Boku no Hero Academia/My Hero Academia
Rating: T+
Part: 3/?
Story Summary: A chance encounter between a villain and vigilante leads to an unwise deal made between unlikely allies; an unwise deal made between unlikely allies ends in a final stand neither would have ever dared to take on alone. Together, though, they just might have a fighting chance.
Part 3 Summary: Once is happenstance, twice is coincidence, and thrice is just a big headache for everyone involved.
Part 1 on  Tumblr / AO3
Part 2 on Tumblr / AO3
Part 3 on AO3
Hizashi gave the IT intern a tight but friendly smile as she waved to him before going to check on the status of the server migration. He hated having to do delicate research like this at work; every time one of his coworkers needed something in the room he shared with the server banks he couldn’t help jumping to attention, his hand poised on the lid of his laptop to snap it shut if they wandered too close. The cover it provided him was mostly worth the anxiety, however. A single IP using a VPN in the middle of an apartment block full of unsecured cable company wifi signals was suspicious; another VPN added to the tangle of secure signals emanating from a tech-heavy operation like a radio station was just another Tuesday. Hizashi waited for the intern to finish her checks before going back to what he’d been looking at before he was interrupted.
As far as he was able to find in the HR filings for Solo-Falcon Deliveries they only had one employee named Aizawa, first name Shouta. The photo that accompanied the digitized CV was younger-looking but the man was recognizable nonetheless; same perpetual look of knowing what a hairbrush was in concept but no evidence of him owning one, same dour, “are we done yet?” expression in his dark eyes. Said CV was as barebones as Hizashi had ever seen: eight years at Solo-Falcon Deliveries preceded by a plethora of short term post-middle school jobs; school transcripts from a dozen different private tutors that came to a sudden stop at the end of middle school. His permanent residence had been the same for as long as Aizawa had been working, cosigned by an adult family member with the stipulation that the lease would pass to Aizawa when he turned eighteen. As far as Hizashi could tell Shouta Aizawa had popped out of nothingness as a poe-faced fifteen-year-old looking for a job.
Trying to get any answers out of social media was equally fruitless. Retracing Aizawa’s online steps revealed a ghost town of abandoned accounts in his wake, all following the same pattern of non-use. He would sign up for a new platform, friend or follow one or two other accounts, make half a dozen posts over the course of about a year, then drop it completely without bothering to deactivate or delete. The posts were all the kind of non-entities one could expect out of someone who wasn’t expecting to stick around for very long. Even on the accounts he’d used the most they mostly consisted of inoffensive comments about the weather or work and slightly blurry cell phone pictures of cats.
Even the government seemed to have no luck in catching ahold of Aizawa longer than the time it took to confirm his address, collect his taxes, and send him back on his way. According to his Quirk registration, Aizawa had been something of an early bloomer, developing his nullification power before he even hit kindergarten and being switched from public schooling to private education soon afterwards for reasons of “health concerns”. Elementary and middle school records matched the near-yearly swapping of home tutors from his CV, but Hizashi noticed with interest that there was one massive omission between the two. Several records back in the Quirk registry’s access history was a request from the registrar of UA High School to confirm Aizawa’s personal and Quirk information. Raising an eyebrow Hizashi flipped back to Aizawa’s schooling history and found a perfunctory footnote at the bottom of the file: UA High School registration Apr 2004-Nov 2004; file sealed per subject request. Nothing else was said, just that short “by the way” on a digital post-it note before going on to document the work history and financial filings Hizashi already knew about.
Either Aizawa was some kind of subterfuge wunderkind or he really was just this disconnected. Hizashi sighed and leaned back in his chair, turning that over in his mind. A sealed UA record was as tantalizing a morsel of intrigue as you could ask for, but he wasn’t arrogant enough to think he could go up against a security system as ironclad as theirs with nothing but a masked IP and an undeniable curiosity. There were favors he could call in, Hizashi supposed, people he could ask. Said people would want something equally backbreaking in return as insurance on their investments but that could be relegated to a date far in the future where he had the information in hand and could gauge its actual worth for himself.
Before he had time to start flipping through his mental address book, however, he was interrupted by a buzzing from his cell phone. The display showed an unlisted number being forwarded through his “business line”, a landline he’d had installed in a condemned fast food restaurant on the far edge of the city. Hizashi glanced at his door to make sure it was fully shut before swiping to accept the call.
“Mmn,” he muttered by way of greeting. There was a click, and an automated voice on the other end began to speak in choppy, text-to-speech sentences.
“Bird. Seguchi. Your backdoor into the Hero Registry failed.” Hizashi rolled his eyes. Of course he was the problem, it couldn’t possibly be that Seguchi's client was incompetant. “You owe me a workable solution, do it right this time. Meet tonight at nine sharp, no later. Directions to follow.” The message barked out the address and Hizashi scribbled it disinterestedly onto the back of an envelope. It looked like his pet project would have to take a backseat for something more pressing but way less interesting, he thought with a disappointed sigh.
Biting back a curse, Shouta stared daggers at the bland error box telling him he didn’t have the proper access clearance for the files he needed. He’d spent most of the morning trying to fake the new set of credentials the police database was requiring to view the updated version of the Mockingbird dossier. The security had never been what you could call lax, but the newest version required both the highest clearance level Shouta had ever seen as well as a password that from what he’d been able to glean was just a long randomly-generated string of characters that maxed out the number of available spaces. He gritted his teeth and decided the building headache at the back of his skull was telling him he needed to switch to something a little less frustrating, though such things felt thin on the ground at the moment.
Trying to reconcile the comings and goings of Hizashi Yamada with the known Mockingbird incidents was proving to be an exercise in futility. Yamada didn’t necessarily have an alibi for every time Mockingbird had been sighted in the act, but there was also no real reason for anyone to suspect him of needing one. Mockingbird was a serial offender with a list of potential charges that took up several single-spaced pages in his police file; Hizashi Yamada was the well-known and well-loved operations manager and late night host for a radio station that while not the biggest or wealthiest was far from needing any kind of criminal boost. The only link between the two was Yamada’s oft-abused Quirk, but even that information was a double-edged sword at best. The police had been smart enough to keep the press away from the more sensitive details of the Mockingbird case to avoid copycats and false reports but no one knowing the connection was possible left Shouta shouting into the void. If he went as a civilian witness to the police, he would have to think of a very good lie for how he knew Mockingbird’s M.O. but hadn’t gone to them before now; if he went to them as an admitted vigilante, they might take his report more seriously but he’d end up in handcuffs right next to Yamada. As with most things he’d have to go into this on his own, something that would be a much simpler undertaking if he wasn’t being actively locked out of the information he needed to do so.
“Computer trouble?” a voice above him asked. Shouta jumped, causing the large ginger cat in his lap to grumble and dig its claws into his thighs in retaliation. He gave the cat an apologetic pat on the head and looked up to see one of the cat cafe’s servers standing next to his table.
“Uh, no. It’s just old. Doesn’t like to load,” Shouta lied, swapping screens as casually as he could. The server nodded with a sympathetic smile.
“I getcha,” she said. “It’s such a pain when they still work but they’re too old to really do the work. Our whole register system is older than I am but we can’t get the old workhorse to give up the ghost and let us replace her.” She chuckled, shrugging. “Did you want a refill on that coffee?” she added, pointing to Shouta’s half-full cup that had gone cold long ago.
“Sure, thanks. One sugar, no milk,” Shouta said. He scratched the cat in his lap behind the ears until the server was safely back behind the counter putting his order in before switching back to his other window.
The page had blacked out, the error message now telling him that his session had expired and would not be renewed. He tried closing his browser and restarting it, but the window instantly dimmed and let him know that his session was well and truly dead for today. Shouta wondered if this was a new protocol being rolled out across the board or if he wasn’t the only one they were having to lock out. If the same gap in the digital fence was being used by someone with less scrupulous intents, Shouta supposed he couldn’t entirely begrudge the police for fixing the fault and adding a less easily manipulated system. Trying to channel his frustration into a more helpful direction, Shouta opened the spreadsheet he’d been using to build a Mockingbird timeline and added what scraps of new information he’d been able to screenshot. He highlighted the long periods of silence and typed each time period and Yamada’s name into individual browser tabs.
Hizashi Yamada was as easy to track as Mockingbird was impossible to pin down. Yamada put a lot of effort into propagating his breezy, unbothered persona, but seemed to put just as much into being a diligent employee; the gaps Shouta had found in Mockingbird’s movements didn’t generate so much as a sick day for Yamada. Shouta supposed if you weren’t actively looking for irregularities the lack of them wouldn’t have sparked interest, but to him it was both unnatural and damning. There had to be a weak spot somewhere, Shouta thought. Absurdly careful was one thing, but perfect was something else entirely. He had a suspicion that there was information in the locked sections of Mockingbird’s dossier that would mean nothing to the police without knowing Yamada’s civilian movements but would be the key to getting the upper hand on him for Shouta. But getting in there for a better look around would take time, and with his afternoon delivery shift fast approaching time was not something he had in excess. Another day with better luck, Shouta thought, saving what little progress he’d made and shutting his laptop.
Hebiko, Seguchi’s second in command and high-ranking candidate for Hizashi’s least favorite person on the planet, was waiting for him under the awning of the burned-out corner shop they were supposed to meet at. Hizashi groaned internally at the sight of her, fighting the urge to turn on his heel and cut his losses. Instead he raised a hand in greeting.
“Nice weather for it,” he said.
Hebiko fixed him with an unblinking stare and an emotionless smile. “It’s been a while, Bird,” she said, extending a hand to him like she expected him to shake it. Vivid memories of falling for the ploy and being subjected to the tetanus-like paralysis of her Snakebite Quirk the first time they’d met made Hizashi’s hands reflexively clench into fists. He meaningfully tucked his hands into his jeans pockets and looked around.
“Is your boss planning on joining us, or did he decide the B-team could handle this one on their own?” he asked.
“He had a more important appointment to keep,” Hebiko replied. Her smile widened without gaining so much as a scrap of good will. Hizashi was tempted to point out that Seguchi had thought this was important enough to call him out in the middle of a weekday evening, but his desire to get this over with before all of the good takeout places closed won out.
“His prerogative,” Hizashi said instead, shrugging. “Shall we, then?”
“After you,” Hebiko said, gesturing down the narrow alley between this building and the next. “We’re parked a street up from here,” Hebiko added when Hizashi didn’t move. “It’ll be easier to just cut through here.”
Hizashi scraped together the waning scraps of his patience, reminding himself that there was a takeaway curry and a quiet night at home with his cat on the other end of this nonsense, and headed up the alley where she was pointing.
“Good work today!” Shouta’s manager called over his shoulder as he left the employee changing room. Shouta’s two remaining coworkers called it back to him over the clang of closing lockers. Shouta muttered a vague reply a little too late, his mind already turning to what he had planned for after work.
With a last-minute change in the schedule he had somehow escaped an early shift tomorrow morning after tonight’s late shift, which meant he had until tomorrow afternoon to sleep and eat and all of the other things he usually had to cram into the few hours between clocking out and clocking back in. His heart ached to get out and stretch his legs on a long patrol, missing the routine in the wake of his recent garbage schedule. His head knew better, though. The late hour would mean fewer personnel working at police central intelligence, which would mean fewer eyes on what files were being accessed and by whom, and his newly-opened timetable would mean plenty of time to figure out what he was supposed to do about the lock on the Mockingbird dossier.
Shouta threw his bag over his shoulders, bidding his coworkers a hasty good night and walking quickly out the door before anything had time to interrupt his plans for the evening.
Hebiko followed at a distance that felt both too close and uncomfortably distant, her footsteps almost purposefully off-beat from his own. Hizashi opened his mouth to invite her to stop being such a stalker and just walk next to him, but instead found himself being slammed sideways into the alley wall by something that exploded out of a garbage bag next to a nearby dumpster. Hizashi staggered, breath catching short and sharp in his throat from the hit. Hebiko’s foot shot out from behind him, dead-legging him into an awkward half-crouch on the pavement. Hizashi looked up to see Takeshiro, one of Hebiko’s favorite minions, hopping out of the dumpster. The garbage bag that had assaulted him rustled and squirmed as a thick tangle of dessicated vegetable cuttings slithered out and stood ready by Takeshiro’s side. Hizashi choked back a gag at the smell of it, working to keep his face unconcerned.
“I feel like you might have taken that B-team comment from earlier a little too personally,” he said, the words coming out in a pained wheeze. For the first time Hebiko’s smile held actual mirth and Hizashi deeply regretted the development.
“You’ve been pissing a lot of people off lately, Bird,” Hebiko said.
“Including your boss, apparently,” Hizashi agreed. He pivoted on his toes and tried to keep his eyes on both of them as he straightened up. “He must be pretty irritated to send his pets to do his wet work without coming along to gloat.”
Takeshiro’s plant weapon struck out at him again, sending Hizashi skittering sideways to avoid it. Hizashi gritted his teeth. Hebiko and Takeshiro were each blocking an open end of the alley, closing ranks around him along with Takeshiro’s plant. The only other potential exit he had was a fire escape above the dumpster Takeshiro had crawled out of. If he could keep them distracted long enough to dart through and scramble up the escape there was a chance he could make it out of this in one fresh-scented fully mobile piece. He thought of the extendable police baton hidden in the holster sewn into the back of his jacket but decided it was better to keep it as a last resort. There was no point in escalating a situation already at the snapping point if he could find another way out of it.
“The boss doesn’t know you’re here,” Hebiko said coolly. “The cops caught him trying to get through the Hero Registry’s security net last week using the instructions he got from you. He’s been in custody ever since.”
“Sounds like user error to me,” Hizashi replied, “since the information wasn’t for him in the first place. Does he go through other people’s mail too?”
“That’s really cute coming from someone who makes a living out of digging in digital garbage looking for things to sell,” Hebiko snapped.
“Ooh, really hitting me where it hurts,” Hizashi said. He put on the biggest, fakest grin he could muster, putting a hand to his chest in mock offense. Hebiko’s eyes narrowed, her hands flexing at her sides like she was trying to resist the urge to throttle him. Takeshiro’s plant weapon was starting to twitch and writhe at Takeshiro’s side, belying the man’s outward straightfaced patience. His strategy was panning out for the moment, and hopefully a moment was all he would need.
“We’re about to find a few more places for it to hurt,” Hebiko said, lips curling back from her teeth in a cold smirk.
“Thanks but no thanks.”
Seizing his chance, Hizashi caught Hebiko hard in the jaw with a surprise right hook. She stumbled back a step before coming towards him with an open-palmed strike of her own, ready to freeze him where he stood. Hizashi managed to avoid it just in time, hooking his foot around the back of her knee and sweeping it out from under her. He felt a hand grab him by the back of the jacket and yank him back several steps, nearly taking him off his feet as well. Hizashi twisted sharply towards Takeshiro, forcing the man to loosen his grip just long enough for Hizashi to duck away. He made it all the way up onto the lip of the dumpster and felt his fingers brush the ladder to the fire escape before something grabbed him around the waist and pulled him hard down onto hands and knees on the pavement. Hizashi yelped as pain crackled through his shins and forearms. Before he had time to recover he felt a hand snatch his sweatshirt’s hood off of his head, followed by Hebiko’s sharp fingers digging into the back of his neck. Instantly his body went rigid, joints locking painfully together against his will.
“This is why I hate birds,” Hebiko said, her voice mockingly conversational in Hizashi’s ear. “Whenever things get a little intense, they try to flit away before you get to have any fun with them.”
Without any warning Hebiko grabbed him by the hair and jerked his head forward, slamming it with all her strength into the steel side of the dumpster. Hizashi went limp, the fading paralysis replaced by a dazed ringing in his ears and an unstrung feeling throughout his limbs. He struggled to keep himself awake as black static overtook his vision. Distantly Hizashi could feel hands turning him over and working to pick him up. He heard a second metallic clang, followed by Hebiko snapping something to Takeshiro at the far end of the sludge his brain was sinking into. Before he could make any sense out of any of it, he’d drifted too deep and everything was dark buzzing silence in his head.
Shouta had been trying his best to keep his head down and his eyes on the goal of getting home, but the instant he’d seen the two of them he knew there was going to be trouble. The street was mostly empty and the few people who were out were in motion, leaving jobs or late-night restaurants and heading to wherever they were going after that. The two under the awning, however, were just standing there, carefully keeping to the little bit of shadow the scraps of ripped canvas still cast over the sidewalk. Shouta slowed, pulling his hood up to make it slightly less obvious that he was watching them. One of the figures was tall and skinny with a sharp silhouette, the other at least a foot shorter with unnaturally stiff posture. They talked for a moment before the shorter one waved the taller into the nearby alleyway. Shouta’s eyes narrowed. Never a good sign. He unsnapped the pocket he’d sewn into the shoulder strap of his bag, pulling out one of the bolases he’d stowed there for emergencies. Tucking it tightly into his palm he approached the mouth of the alley. A quick check of the sidewalk confirmed no one else seemed to have noticed him or the two he was following, so Shouta edged up on the corner of the building and peered down the alley.
A third, stockier figured had joined the group from somewhere in the time it took him to approach; they and the short one had closed ranks around the tall one to prevent any potential escape. Shouta dropped into a crouch as he rounded the corner, scuffing his feet over the ground to keep his steps quiet. The group was too far away for Shouta to tell what they were saying, but the conversation seemed to turn sour very quickly. Shouta only managed a few steps towards them before whatever was said triggered a short, dirty fight and the attempt at a quick exit by the tall one via a nearby fire escape. Something fast and tentacle-like caught them around the waist before they made it and dragged them back down. A moment later the short one had them by the back of them neck and slammed them head-first into the side of the dumpster with a sickening clang of skull on metal that echoed out in the otherwise muted night. The tall figure lolled sidewise, dropping senseless onto the ground and for a moment Shouta thought the other two were just going to leave them there. Worse plans were being made, it seemed, as instead the two still standing worked together to roll the unconscious third over and the stocky one made to throw them over their shoulder.
As quickly as he could, Shouta spun the bolas in his hand and threw it at the stocky figure as they bent over. Just shy of wrapping around them, however, the tentacle thing reared up again and slapped the bolas aside. It wrapped uselessly around the bottom of the fire escape ladder with a metallic snap and both of the standing figures turned to see Shouta where he had broken his cover. He pulled another spare bolas out and started it spinning as he rushed them.
“Forget it, get to the car!” the shorter figure commanded the stocky one as they made a move to grab the unconscious figure again. Sprinting away, they made a cursory attempt at tripping Shouta with the tentacle thing, but the swipe swung wide and the tentacle melted into a glob of rotting vegetables as he darted past. The second bolas flew straight, but the two of them had a big enough head start on their side that it dropped and skidded along the ground at their heels without making contact. They had already ducked into a nondescript black sedan and were pulling into traffic by the time Shouta reached the other end of the alley. Shouta pulled his phone out of his pocket and just managed to get a photo of the back of their car. He realized too late that the car didn’t have any plates. Muttering a sharp curse under his breath, Shouta turned and walked back to where they had abandoned the body.
A cold, dawning recognition began to spread in the pit of his stomach as he approached. The figure lay face-down on the concrete where it had been dropped, a spill of long blond hair falling over the collar of a familiar feathered leather jacket. Gently turning the body over confirmed his worst suspicion. Mockingbird’s mask now sported a jagged crack along the top and was streaked with blood from where it had cut into his forehead when his head slammed into the dumpster. Under the blood he looked unpleasantly pale in the dim alley light. His eyelids flickered and he let out a small moaning breath as Shouta put two fingers to his neck to confirm there was a pulse. Not dead, Shouta confirmed with a tight grimace, just knocked out.
Shouta sat back on his heels, brain speeding off in opposite directions at the same time. He knew he was duty-bound to find the nearest patrolling officer or hero and turn Mockingbird in; it was the only good ending for the situation, even if his accomplices had managed to get away. Then again, those “accomplices” had knocked Mockingbird out and for all intents and purposes left him for dead. Whatever had gone south between them, Mockingbird had ended up a victim of it in the end. It seemed unfair somehow for him to get turned over to law enforcement when what he needed was help, like adding insult to injury. A police siren rang out on the street Shouta had followed Mockingbird and the others off of, making Shouta jump. He didn’t have time to debate it. Before better instincts could kick in, he shuffled off his bag and opened the farthest-back compression pocket.
“Sorry about this,” Shouta muttered. Working quickly, he stripped off Mockingbird’s mask and jacket, stuffing them into his bag. Mockingbird was wearing a piece of homemade gear around his neck, partially hidden by the neckline of his hoodie. It looked like a series of spare audio parts wired into a tight collar; long wires stretched down under his sleeves to controls strapped to the palms of his hands under his gloves. The sirens were getting uncomfortably close as Shouta tried to find a way to get it off of him. Finally he just took each side of a join in one hand and yanked, pulling all of the wires free and and shoving the whole contraption in his bag as well. He managed to get everything strapped flat and his bag back over his shoulders as blue and red lights announced the approach of the police. Taking a deep breath and turning his gut-level panic into an expression of concern, Shouta half-jogged out of the alley to meet them.
“Hey! Hey over here, I think he needs help!” Shouta shouted, waving his arms to flag the car down.
The next hour was a hazy blur of trying to keep his story straight for every cop he had to repeat it to, from the scene to the ambulance to a private conference room at the hospital. He had been on his way home from work, he said in increasing tones of weariness, and he heard what he thought was a fight in the alley as he passed by. He tried to step in after the muggers threw Yamada against the dumpster, but they ran off before he could get a good look at them. No, he didn’t really know Yamada, he just recognized him from a delivery he’d made. No, he wasn’t the one who made the initial call to the police, he had been trying to check if Yamada was dead or just unconscious. No, he didn’t have any additional information, he had honestly just been in the right place at the right time. Each time the police seemed to get a little less interested in him, turning their attention to questioning Yamada when the doctors were done running tests. Finally they thanked him for his time and Shouta was allowed to sit by himself in the waiting room and catch his breath.
Every single part of him felt like it was trying to fistfight every other part, but his head was winning the pain battle by a longshot. Hizashi opened his eyes and immediately shut them again with a sharp grunt of pain as white fluorescent lights burned into his skull. He tried again more slowly, squinting his eyes open in slow shifts to let them adjust. A hospital room came into focus bit by bit.. His jacket and gear were gone and his feet were bare. He could see a doctor and nurse standing a few feet away, talking to a uniformed officer. All of them seemed relatively relaxed, considering where they were. There was an uneasy feeling of Wrongness about the situation, but before he had time to dwell on it, the three of them noticed he was awake and came to stand around his bed.
“‘M I under arrest?” Hizashi mumbled. It wasn’t the best opener, but putting thoughts into words and having them stay in the right order was proving to be a challenge right now.
“Nothing so drastic, Mr. Yamada,” the doctor said, smiling at the perceived joke. “Officer Fujiwara is just here to take a statement about what happened to you tonight after we run a few tests to make sure everything’s shipshape up here,” she added, tapping her own temple with an index finger.
“Okay,” Hizashi said slowly. The time delay between ears and brain was slowly shortening, but somehow that wasn’t helping things make sense. He wasn’t being detained (yet), and they’d called him Yamada, which seemed to imply better things than he had expected. How that better outcome had happened was still up for debate but he was more than willing to let it ride for the moment.
The doctor introduced herself as Dr. Watanabe before going through the usual battery of post-concussion memory and comprehension tests that a childhood spent roughhousing with four siblings had turned into second nature for Hizashi. Slowly but surely as they spoke Hizashi’s brain clicked up through the gears until he was mostly running on all cylinders. He kept the conversation going as they wheeled him out of the room for a quick brain scan and then back in once it was done. Too soon, however, came the moment when he had to explain himself to the police.
“I understand things may be a little bit confused at the moment,” Officer Fujiwara began, cutting off Hizashi’s excuse before he could even make it. “We can fill in the more minor details at a later date as they come back to you. For right now, just tell me what you remember.”
Hizashi hesitated, trying to come up with a story that was both plausible and matched enough of the details that it wouldn’t come back to bite him later. “Uh. I was out walking,” he started, trying to get his feet under himself as he spoke. “There’s a takeout place I like, but it’s on the other side of town from my apartment so I don’t go there much unless I’m working late.”
“Understandable. Where is it that you work, Mr. Yamada?” Officer Fujiwara asked.
“Asahi Radio. I manage operations and fill in when our hosts are out. I had some paperwork to finish up, so I stayed late tonight.” Nice, neat, normal little life, Hizashi thought, willing her to buy the excuse. Officer Fujiwara made no indication that she did or didn’t believe it. Instead she just nodded and scribbled down shorthand on her notepad, motioning for him to go on. “I was trying to get home before it got too late, so I took a shortcut to the restaurant, but…” Hizashi trailed off, stiffly shaking his head. “I don’t know. It gets kind of jumbled after that.”
“I see. Do you remember seeing or hearing anything out of the ordinary while you were walking? Anyone suspicious, anyone seeming like they were following you?” Officer Fujiwara asked. Hizashi shook his head.
“No, but I wasn’t really looking I guess. Too distracted by my stomach,” Hizashi replied, cracking a smile at his own joke. Officer Fujiwara gave him a thin smile.
“Anything else you can remember?” she asked. Hizashi pretended to think. Trying to remember things in the order that they had happened after Hebiko had hit him with her Snakebite was genuinely difficult and added a touch of realism to his stymied expression.
“Sorry, no,” he said.
“Not a problem, Mr. Yamada. Here’s my card, and one for my immediate superior,” Officer Fujiwara said, handing him a pair of business cards. “If anything comes to mind later, please feel free to give us a call and let us know.”
Hizashi thanked her and accepted the cards, giving her his number at the station in return in case they needed to call him back instead. Officer Fujiwara bid him a good evening and left. Hizashi allowed himself to breathe a long sigh of relief as Dr. Watanabe returned.
“Well, the good news is your scans came back looking clear as can be hoped for,” she said brightly. “We can go ahead and keep you overnight for observation if you would like, but you should be all right to go ahead home if you’d rather do that. I believe your friend’s still out in the waiting room if the two of you need to talk it over.”
A cold jolt sank into the pit of Hizashi’s stomach, but he tried to keep it off his face. “Uh, yeah,” he agreed. “That might be best.”
Dr. Watanabe nodded and left to go get said “friend”. Hizashi sat up, sliding his legs over to sit on the side of the bed. He wasn’t really feeling up to running for his life after the rest of what happened tonight, but if Hebiko had followed him all the way to the hospital it seemed like he wasn’t going to have much choice. Maybe the cops would still be down in the lobby when he got there and he could have a miraculous return of memory that the stringy, suspicious-looking woman who had said she was here to get him was actually here to get him.
The frantic train of thought had a massive derail, however, as Dr. Watanabe returned to the room with a tall, shuffling figure in tow. Hizashi blinked, sure he had to be seeing things as Aizawa awkwardly nodded in greeting.
“Hey,” Aizawa muttered. “Erm. How’re you feeling?”
“A little confused,” Hizashi said. He tried to raise his eyebrow, but relented when the motion pulled too hard at the stitches in his forehead. “But, uh. Okay, I guess. Are you my escort home?”
Aizawa gave him a slightly sour look at the question but nodded. “I guess so,” he said.
In a renewed haze of bewilderment Hizashi reclaimed what of his belongings hadn’t been thrown out as a biohazard and signed himself out of the hospital while Aizawa called them a taxi. A very stiff, silent cab ride followed, neither of them knowing how to break the silence without making this worse than it already was.
“How’d you know where I was?” Hizashi asked finally, eyes locked forward out the front windshield of the taxi. “Decide to follow me?”
“No,” Aizawa replied flatly. “Just bad luck I guess.”
“Yours or mine?”
“Both.”
Hizashi snorted. “For once we agree on something,” he said.
The cab pulled to a stop in front of Hizashi’s building and his door creaked open to let him out. Aizawa cleared his throat as Hizashi shambled up off the seat.
“Do you...want me to come with you?” Aizawa asked, with a note in his voice that sounded like genuine concern. Hizashi paused, amused in spite of himself.
“Not even a little bit,” Hizashi replied with a cheerful, insincere smile. He shut the door and waited until the cab had pulled back into traffic and rounded the corner before going inside.
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patriotsnet · 3 years ago
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How Many Seats Republicans Have In House
New Post has been published on https://www.patriotsnet.com/how-many-seats-republicans-have-in-house/
How Many Seats Republicans Have In House
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Incumbents Who Sought Other Offices
Midterm elections: Do Republicans have a chance of keeping the House?
U.S. House members who ran for President
1 Democratic member of the U.S. House
Running for president, 2020
U.S. House members who sought a seat in the U.S. Senate
2 Democratic members of the U.S. House
3 Republican members of the U.S. House
Running for Senate, 2020
U.S. House members who ran for governor
1 Republican member of the U.S. House
Running for governor, 2020
U.S. House members who ran for another office
2 Republican members of the U.S. House
1 Democratic member of the U.S. House
Running for another office, 2020 Name No
Four Flips For Democrats One For Republicans
Going into the election, the Democrats held 47 seats in the U.S. Senate while the Republicans held 53.
The Democrats have succeeded in flipping four seats: in Colorado, where former Governor John Hickenlooper easily ousted incumbent Cory Gardner, in Arizona, where former astronaut Mark Kelly defeated incumbent Martha McSally, and in Georgia, where Raphael Warnock defeated incumbent Kelly Loeffler and Jon Ossoff defeated incumbent David Perdue.
The Republicans have wrested back one previously Democratic seat in Alabama, where one-term incumbent Doug Jones was emphatically denied a second term by Tommy Tuberville, a former college head football coach, most recently at the University of Cincinnati.
Outgoing freshman Sens. Jones and Gardner were both considered vulnerable, as each was elected with less than 50% of the vote in 2018.
Republican Thom Tilliss victory over Cal Cunningham in North Carolinaby less than 2 percentage points according to the North Carolina Secretary of States latest tallyis one of several close Senate races that were not called until after election night. In addition to the seats from Georgia, close races also include the victories of incumbent senators Gary Peters and Susan Collins , which were not called until Nov. 4.
By David Morgan
4 Min Read
WASHINGTON A Democratic drive to win control of the U.S. Senate appeared to fall short, with Democrats picking up only one Republican-held seat while six other races remained undecided early on Wednesday.
Historical Special Election Data
Special elections, 2013-2020
Fifty special elections to the United States Congress were held during the 113th through 116th Congresses. During that time, special elections were called for 16 seats vacated by Democrats and 34 vacated by Republicans.
The table below details how many congressional seats changed parties as the result of a special election between 2013 and 2020. The numbers on the left side of the table reflect how many vacant seats were originally held by each party, while the numbers on the right side of the table show how many vacant seats each party won in special elections.
Congressional special election vacancies and results, 113th Congress to 116th Congress Congress
U.S. Senate special election partisan change from special elections, 113th Congress to 116th Congress Party
U.S. House special election partisan change from special elections, 113th Congress to 116th Congress Party 40 40
To see a list of all the Congressional special elections referenced in the table above, click at the right. Results of special elections to the 113th, 114th, and 115th Congress Race R+13
Special elections, 1986-2012
The table below presents the results of special elections to Congress from 1986 to 2012. Contact Ballotpedia at for access to earlier data.
Results of special elections to Congress Election cycle 3 5 3 2 3 None 21 19 9
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How Did State Populations Change From 2010 To 2020
The U.S. population has increased by 7.4% since the last Census, to a total of;331,449,281 people.
California is the most populous state with 39,538,223 people, while Wyoming is the smallest state at 576,851 people.
Utah was the state with the fastest growing population over the last decade, increasing by 18.4%, while West Virginia had the most population loss, dipping 3.2%.;
Control Of The Senate Could Be Decided By Georgia Races
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;There are two races up in Georgia this election, a regular Senate race and special election. The rules in Georgia for both the regular Senate election and the Senate special election require a candidate to win a majority, and if none of the candidates clear the 50% threshold, the race goes to a runoff in January.;
Recent polling in the race between incumbent GOP Senator David Perdue and Democrat Jon Ossoff has been tight, and the presence of a libertarian candidate on the ballot could prevent either Perdue or Ossoff from clearing the majority. In the special election, 21 candidates have qualified to be on the ballot, including Democrat Raphael Warnock, who has led in recent polls. GOP candidates Senator Kelly Loeffer, who was appointed to the seat last year, and Congressman Doug Collins are also on the ballot. If no candidate clears the majority, that race will also go to a runoff in January.
Read Also: Can Republicans Win Back The House
Gop Control Of State Governments Gives It The Edge In Contest To Redraw Congressional Maps To Its Advantage
House Minority Leader Rep. Kevin McCarthy, a Republican from California, hopes to become speaker of the House after the November 2022 elections.
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The Census Bureau released the preliminary findings of its 2020 U.S. population count on Monday, setting the stage for a once-in-a-decade congressional redistricting process that could in itself be enough to give the Republican Party the five additional House seats needed to recapture the majority following the 2022 midterm elections.
Under the new count, California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia will each lose a congressional seat. Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, Oregon and Florida will gain one seat, while Texas will add two.
Read more: New York, California set to lose House seats; Florida and Texas to gain after Census Bureau reveals 2020 counts
New census data and reapportionment add challenges for the Democrats in the midterm elections, wrote Sarah Bianchi, political analyst at Evercore ISI, in a Tuesday note to clients, pointing out that states that President Joe Biden won in the 2020 election lost a net three congressional seats.
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New York could be where Democrats decide to abandon a principled stand against gerrymandering and use their supermajorities to overrule the independent redistricting commission to create a map that nets Democrats four more seats.
Republicans Score Big Gains In House Pelosi Barely Hanging On
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Democrats expected and eagerly anticipated a blue wave that would sweep them into power in the White House, House, Senate, and state legislatures.; It didnt happen, not by a long shot.
In fact, not only did they do poorly across the board, but, as a Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee spokeswoman astutely noted, President Trump acted not as the Democrat-expected anchor but as a buoy for Republican legislative candidates.
That Democrats vastly misjudged the appeal of their radical agenda is crystal clear , and perhaps nowhere is that more evident than in the House races.; Nancy Pelosi truly expected her party to pick up seats, yet it appears its the Republicans who are on track to accomplish the 10-15 seat gains the Democrats expected in their column.
Pelosi on Election Day: “Democrats are poised to further strengthen our majority.”
Pelosi today: “I never said that we were going to pick up” seats.
Kevin McCarthy
Despite AOCs declaration that Democrats lost the House, they have so far managed to win 219 seats .
Powerline notes that Republicans have flipped 12 House seats: RealClearPolitics notes that Republicans have picked up a net of 9 House seats. RCP projects that Republicans will pick up a net 10-13 seats when the counting is done.
12 FLIPS in the House for the GOP!
CA39 Young Kim
Students For Trump
Of the House races yet to be called as of Friday, Republicans are leading in 11 of the 14 races.
Newsweek reports:
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The Battleground States Advancing Controversial Election And Voting Bills
May 7, 2021 / 9:51 AM / CBS News
Washington Several battleground states controlled by Republicans have pushed for big changes in voting and election laws in recent months, in the wake of former President Donald Trumps electoral loss and a rise in mail-in voting due to the coronavirus pandemic.
These states are considering changes to election laws, such as measures to enforce additional ID requirements, restrict access to dropboxes and shrink the pool of voters.
Arizona, Florida, and Texas each have growing and increasingly diverse populations and play a substantial role in the outcome of presidential contests. All three have Republican legislatures and governorships. Michigan has a Democratic governor, but its Republican-controlled legislature is considering several bills that could make absentee voting more difficult.
Arizona and Michigan narrowly supported President Biden in the 2020 election, and Mr. Trump won Florida and Texas. Georgia, which Mr. Biden also won, has already passed a controversial voting law including some new restrictions.
Here is a rundown of some of the key states states proposing changes to voting and election laws:
Cbs News Projects Mark Kelly Will Win Senate Race In Arizona
Democrats take House, Republicans keep Senate in historic midterms
CBS News is projecting that Democrat ;the Senate race in Arizona, defeating incumbent Republican Senator Martha McSally. This is the second Republican-held seat that Democratic candidates have flipped this year, with Democrat John Hickenlooper also defeating GOP Senator Cory Gardner in Georgia.
As of midday Friday, Kelly was leading McSally by 3 percentage points with 91% of votes counted. Kelly, a former astronaut, is the husband of gun control activist Gabby Giffords, who was shot while serving as a congresswoman in 2011.
This leaves Democrats and Republicans deadlocked with 48 Senate seats each. The Senate race in North Carolina between incumbent GOP Senator Thom Tillis and Democrat Cal Cunningham is still too close to call. The two Senate races in Georgia are both likely to advance to runoff elections, meaning that the final partisan balance of the Senate may not be known until January.
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How Maine And Nebraskas Split Electoral Votes Could Affect The Election
As the race drags into Wednesday, it appears two congressional districts in Maine and Nebraska could prove pivotal in deciding the outcome of the election.
Maine and Nebraska are the only states in the nation that split their electoral votes. Maine awards two of its four electoral votes to the statewide winner, but also allocates an electoral vote to the popular vote winner in each of its two congressional districts. Nebraska gives two of its five electoral votes to the statewide winner, with the remaining three going to the popular vote winner in each of its three congressional districts.
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Us Census Hands More House Seats To Republican Strongholds Texas Florida
The overall U.S. population stood at 331,449,281, the Census Bureau said on Monday, a 7.4% increase over 2010 representing the second-slowest growth of any decade in history.
The release of the data, delayed for months due to the coronavirus pandemic, sets the stage for a battle over redistricting that could reshape political power in Washington during the next decade. States use the numbers and other census data to redraw electoral maps based on where people have moved.
Under the U.S. Constitution, the 435 seats in the House and the votes in the Electoral College that select the president every four years are divided among the 50 states based on population, with every state receiving at least one congressional seat.
The seats are reallocated every 10 years following the decennial census count.
The shift in seats reflects broader population trends that have seen the South and West grow more rapidly than the Northeast and Midwest for decades.
Texas will receive two more congressional seats next year, and five states – Florida, North Carolina, Colorado, Montana and Oregon – will gain one congressional seat each, the census bureau said.
New York, California, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia will each lose one seat. California, the most populous U.S. state, lost a congressional seat for the first time in its 170-year history.
SLOW GROWTH
Wyoming remains the least populated state, with 576,851 residents.
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States That Lost Seats
California continues to be the most populous state in the country, but its pace of growth has slowed enough that it will lose a seat in the next Congress. That means the states independent redistricting commission will have to decide what part of the state loses representation, which could hurt one party. Based on population growth, the endangered seat could very well be a district located completely or partly in Los Angeles County. And because Democrats control almost all of those seats, that could mean they will suffer a net loss from Californias redistricting. However, the removal of a district could make Republican Rep. Mike Garcias seat in northern Los Angeles County even more Democratic-leaning than it already is Biden carried it by 10 points if the districts new lines stretch further southward, which would give Democrats a better chance of capturing that seat.
Lastly, we know for sure that Republicans will be the ones to lose a seat in West Virginia. All three current members of Congress from the Mountain State belong to the GOP, so at least one out of Reps. David McKinley, Alex Mooney or Carol Miller will not be in the next Congress. Expect a lot of intrigue surrounding how, exactly, the seat is redrawn and perhaps a rare incumbent-vs.-incumbent primary election.
Annual Congressional Competitiveness Report 2020
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Ballotpedia’s Annual Congressional Competitiveness report for 2020 includes information on the number of elections featuring candidates from both major parties, the number of open seats, and more.
HIGHLIGHTS
More U.S. House races were contested by members of both major parties than in any general election since at least 1920, with 95.4% of races featuring major party competition.
Of the U.S. Representatives and U.S. Senators who were eligible to run for re-election in 2018, 55 of them did not appear on the general election ballot in 2020.
In the 53 open seats where an incumbent either did not seek re-election or was defeated in a primary, there were 13 races where the incumbent’s district overlapped at least one pivot county in 2008 and 2012, before switching to support President Donald Trump in 2016).
In 20 races, only one major party candidate appeared on the general election ballot, the lowest number compared to the preceding decade.
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The House’s Balance Of Power Is Tipped Toward Democrats
The Democrats;have a narrow six-member margin in the current House of Representatives, meaning if just a handful of seats flip, Republicans can regain control of the House.
Democrats’;advantage;will grow to seven when Troy Carter is sworn in;to fill a seat in Louisiana’s delegation left vacant;by Cedric Richmond, who left the House to join the Biden administration as the director of the White House Office of Public Engagement.;
How Many Senators Are Chosen
The Senate of the United States shall be composed of two Senators from each State, elected by the people thereof, for six years; and each Senator shall have one vote. The electors in each State shall have the qualifications requisite for electors of the most numerous branch of the State legislatures.
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Worst Midterm Election Losses
During the midterm election, one-third of the Senate and all 435 seats in the House of Representatives are at stake.
In the 21 midterm elections held since 1934, only twice has the presidents party gained seats in both the Senate and the House: Franklin Delano Roosevelts first midterm election and George W. Bushs first midterm election.
On four other occasions, the presidents party gained Senate seats and once it was a draw. On one occasion, the presidents party gained House seats. The worst midterm losses tend to occur in a presidents first term.
Modern midterm election results include:
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Isan Composition Of State Legislatures
2018 House Midterm Election Results Update – House Voting Results – How Many Seats? Blue Wave?
Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming See also
The partisan composition of state legislatures refers to which political party holds the majority of seats in the State Senate and State House. Altogether, there are 1,972 state senators and 5,411 state representatives.The breakdown of chamber control after the November 2020 election is as follows:
37 chambers
One chamber with power sharing between the parties
The breakdown of chamber control prior to the November 2020 election was as follows:
39 chambers
See also: Partisan composition of state houses and Partisan composition of state senates
state government trifecta
As of August 15, 2021, there are 23 Republican trifectas, 15 Democratic trifectas, and 12 divided governments where neither party holds trifecta control.
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shytiff · 4 years ago
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Small Nov Wins
1 - cant bring myself to study, got out of bed 10:30-ish am. While lazing around i read royal servant and do random internet stuff and watched romee's vlogs. Ate breakfast and i somehow has no appetite?? This is rare. e, cicil kompre began at 15:30 pm (i know, i waste my time a lot). Pengumuman wahana mpi wow yay kalideres makara and budi asih
2 - the weather was pleasantly cloudy. poli anestesi anak, simul. went to what used to be calais, its called flavola now. at this point i quite need some calories because i only ate bubur ayam and its like 2-3 pm ish. Eventually the hunger is gone, arrived home at about 4-ish, drank protein to curb my hunger (nanggung dinner). dad said sumn that annoyed me so after maghrib i just lazed in bed, not feeling like doing anything (even though there’s lots of exams and hw lmao), fell asleep
3 - woke up at 2 am, prated, randomly searched for angel - chancellor and taeyeon’s lyrics and i basically wept at 4 am. i assumed the song was just like,,, a guy talking to a girl, his angel, you know. EXCEPT,,,,,,,,. the 2 MVs was also rly222 beautiful 🥺. Poli geriatri today, didnt even see patient because there was no more at that time (status salin nadia). ate ichiban salad (surprisingly quite good) at dm bcs i rly do be functioning better outdoors, made matcha latte with full cream milk ((powder)), cicil PT
4 - can finally wake up late. finished 1 sitasi pt, made ikk ppt, bujing lina called about diarrhea and nausea meds, laddered the leader for tomorrow’s exam and it,, was,,, me,, group call with shiko. frantically studied for EA
5 - PT (finished in 45 mins), simul as a leader, with STEMI, VF and hypoglycemia case. somehow made it through. i suck at dosages omggg. PP by car with mom (not rly that tired) but i SLEPT after i got home and had no mood to study helpppp
6 - did my first swab test today. i pushed the doctors hand when she’s doing oropharyngeal swab im sorryyyy 😂. slept. matcha. cicil kompre
7 - still havent finished ikk (deadline: today), and still havent studied for geri and ikk AND i still managed to take a nap. why. Read a bit of kompre. Not sleepy after matcha, but insted i reread bj alex and tsubaki chou lonely planet until 2 am the next day #rippriorities
8 - im having matcha latte seven days in a row as of today :))))) woke up at 10:30 am, went to flavola with atikah and got strawberry yakult (tasted like es mony), arrived home at abt 7-ish am and there no dinner, so i drank protein and ate japota honey butter. My breakfast was chicken porridge, so my diet is sooo liquid today. Rip proper nutrition (ate buryam, lumpia, japota for the whole day and drank 3 beverage). Cicil kompre and studied geri
9 - suma geri, slept, cicil kompre, ny head kind of hurts
10 - my head still hurts, suma ikk with dr herqu and dr retno, didnt take swab result by car because the TRAFFIC in soetta so my brother took it. Thankfully negative.
11 - lulus kompre alhamdulillah, the examiner were Prof Saptawati and dr. Dani from THT. Dr dani still remembered me :"") they were very kind. Went to tamel for first wahana: klinik makara UI. Picked up masker first at mahmudas place, and then went to depok. On the way i was interviewed by maba 2020 wtf im so old. Cleaned up my room with the fam, printed sumn in barel (its quite empty there)
12 - first day at klinik makara ui. i WALKED. such wow. fixed my shoes in kutek. had breakfast in barel and bahari for lunch-dinner. somehow i felt very drained. bought Dapur Alya (nutella and regal) and 2 salads from Salad Point since there was 11.11 promo. Put all of them in the fridge. Read Fools and its sooo good omg
13 - had salad and left over bahari rice for brekkie. went to clinic by grabbike :)))), had my first teleconsultation experience today, a chemical trauma case. suma ea with the help of shiko
14 - woke up at 5:20 ish and i jogged a bit at ui lmaoo. fisip - ft - fisip. By 6:30 im already back at my room. 1 hour can be spent a lot of different ways, it turns out. Washed my clothes. Ate monstercheese pizza. Slept a bit. Went to blok m with ara (she was late as always, surprised her with koi milk tea), ate futago ya (greasy cheesy milky goodness, enak tapi eneg afterwards), bought red bean bread at la mouette, bought discounted onigiri bento box at papaya. We went to m bloc space, looked around, ate gelato at kebunide (blueberry: yum, fresh, kiiinda feels artificial, salted caramel: delicious but makes me thirsty) and did photobox at connectoon. Walked to mrt asean but turns out!! for weekends mrt is closed at 8pm. Took grabbike to sudirman, seeing the pretty city and people just hanging out, playing skateboards on the wide sidewalks.
15 - planned to go jogging with salemba frens but i woke up late (06:45), so i just lazed around. Ate onigiri bento (super worth it for 25k for the proteins), fell asleep again 10ish to 14:30 lmaoo. The doms from yesterday was present even on the right side of my lower back 🙂 the red bean bread made me feel full, and the red bean was not too sweet, which i love. Reviewed some meshwork materials i missed. Fianti called and we talked abt her and hari
16 - had mujigae for sahur and fish bite for iftar. The fish was not as soft as fish streat, but the flour was definitely better and crunchy. But it doesnt have the seasoning micin like fish streat do. The pasta was quite a lot im in food coma afterwards. Fell asleep, and my stomach was so gassy that i woke up in the middle with a headache that does not play around. Fortunately it dissapeared in the morning
17 - breakfast is rice kimchi and abon lmaoo just pretend it makes sense. The scrubs i ordered finally arrived. I fell asleep AGAIN, WHYYYY. Lost my streak in DL, i guess i can stop using it for now.
18 - finished reading blood link, girlll i thought the human died at the end. Did not buy food today wow. Took a nap and cicil kompre.
19 - brekkie at barel. Helped measuring antropometry today at clinic, and also measured my own. The fucked up thing was that i THOUGHT my body fat is still at 28% compared to the past (dr rina's research). So i looked at the old paper AND. I USED TO HAVE. 35% FAT 🙂 even my memories are in denial and are fooling me. All this time i thought i was at 28 🙂 did swab at rsui. The one swabbing was from fkui 2012 and we had small talk. It hurted more than lmk :( now this does feel like drowning in water (cause before i said "nah its not like water in nose"). Took angkot back to tamel, bought piscok lumer pocin and its soooo gooood ugh
20 - i feel like if i have breakfast with leftover rice and abon and sozzis i get hungry faster lmaoo. Ordered ken karaage from kukusan, yaa okela for 25k with ongkir. Did online posbindu education through wa. BTS BE COMEBACK 🥺 i maximized my wifi time (no wifi at tamel) so i listened to the whole album. My mobile data is at 200MB lol. Read a good longreads from the atlantic, about down synd and genetic screening. The writing is so so good im just blown away. And teary eyed.
21 - ran a bit, solid class (gastro, rheum, infection), embryo, webinar about sleep by dr Gita Anindyajati, SpKJ, bought ayam geprek gold chick (lotsss of oil since i ordered tempe, jamur, egg, bought pop cookies. matcha cheese was actually better than i expected (the combination somehow fits), dark chocolate and marshmallow is very chocolatey like mom’s brownies, and vegan strawberry cookie with a hint of mint. i wonder how they replace the egg. I wonder why after i run i dont feel hungry for a moment. bloating just gooes away
22 - joined kris' healthy weekly event (lmao) in tamsur. They went to epiwalk first. Its difficult for me to run w mask, ngl. Went back to tamel, embryo, ate leftover meal from gold and chick, felt somehow drained to the bone so i just laid in bed and lazed and lazed. Theres no soreness, but the weakness was generalized lmao. Ordered bbq chicken almond salad from salad point, it was actually quite fulfilling and delishhh (added chili sauce to the dressing). Literally laid in bed from 7 until i fell asleep and woke up at 6 the next day. Finished readin shame application lmao
23 - i still feel tired ckckck. No doms, but i feel like i just want to lay down. got DV patient today at clinic, its most likely derm numularis??? Ate salad and dark choco marshmallow cookies in the evening and that cookie. Is so damn sweet im just thinking about the increase in my blood sugar. And i like sweets so!!! Never thought id find sumn too sweet. Washed my clothes and cicil ukmppd (i put things about studying ukmppd in habitica now)
24 - ate tanoshi sushi and ufo ramen for bfast, ate the sushi again for lunch and after waking up from my sleep i tried kokku ramen (so so, but the egg yolk's good)
25 - bfast: superbubur, protein shake and cookies. (did not make me feel full long enough). Ordered burger from EATG (so so, burger bener is better) for lunch. Last day at makara ui. Ara arrived coz shes staying here in tamel. Waiting for mom to arrive from cibubur, she arrived at about 20:30. I passed out at home
26 - first day in pkm kalideres, i volunteered to be pj to avoid RSUD. my room is a mess, i feel tired after i go back. maybe its the physical withdrawal (?) because i dont walk like when im on klinik makara. came to pkm thinking i wont do anything (orientation only) but the 6 of us ended up going. i was at igd. i saw nail extraction and injected ats for another patient 
27 - talked for almost an hour with the doctor at poli lansia. went home, felt sooo tired, i slept and actually showered after maghrib. originally planned to go to sbux but i was just tired af. my mood was horrible at home. 
28 - turns out i started my period today. i havent studied at all during pkm kalideres era. embryo. slept again. read some manga by nishin something with the psychological and BL genre. 
29 - embryo. cut my hair, showered, and felt better. fell asleep on dr gita's lecture. Drank cimory banana milk with a bit of matcha powder. I dont know if its the sleep, or a bit of caffeine, but my mood feels better and im more awake. Cicil ukmppd with a slow pace. Read itasaku ff. Slept at about 2 am
30 - surprisingly, i dont feel sleepy when i wake up. poli anak today, surprisingly i got perinatology case (jaundice). presented it on pleno. for bfast i ate 3 slice of bread (2 with meat and cheese, 1 choco and cheese) and protein shake, lunch: a slice of choco cheese bread and a banana, fell asleep, dinner: 1 bakwan, a banana and nextar. i can feel that the calories i got today is even less than what i usually got (and usually i already try to limit calories that i am counting the intake amout and made sure im not too far from my bmr lmaoo (~1100)
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predict-it · 4 years ago
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Predictable Insights - 8.21.20
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Here are the real-money, prediction markets trending on PredictIt, the stock market for politics. This week we hosted VICE News' Liz Landers for another great happy hour chat. Landers gave traders the skinny on the Democratic National Convention and her take on this fall's big showdown between Biden and Trump.
Market prices updated as of 11 a.m. ET on Friday, August 21.
2020 US Presidential Race Update
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Democratic presidential and vice presidential nominees Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. Photo: Official Photos - White House and Senate
Democratic National Convention: It was an unusual Democratic National Convention. Perhaps a better descriptor than convention would have been a the Democratic National Livestream. But regardless of the circumstances, Democrats rolled out the heavy hitters of their party, with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez (D-NY) and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) appearing to quell the fears of the left, and former President Barack Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama serving to go after President Donald Trump, and highlight their “friend” and “brother,” former Vice President Joe Biden. Biden spoke last night, and the reviews were good, even from seemingly unlikely sources.
Fox News’ Chris Wallace said, "Remember, Donald Trump has been talking for months about Joe Biden as [being] mentally shot, a captive of the left," Wallace said during Fox News special coverage of the Democratic National Convention. "And yes, Biden was reading from the teleprompter and a prepared speech, but I thought that he blew a hole, a big hole, in that characterization."
Will the markets move today based on this reaction? Stay tuned to find out.
ICYMI, Don’t Worry, We Taped It: We hosted Liz Landers, VICE News’ DC correspondent, on our virtual happy hour series this week. Liz discussed some reporting nuggets that might be very helpful in making your decisions on key markets. Click here to see the discussion in full.
Swamp News: No, we're not talking about Washington, DC this time. Head a little farther south and, in Florida, there's a ballot measure that could enfranchise 1.4 million felons. VICE has followed this story over the past year and chatted with us about it. With market odds getting closer and closer, how the court decides could swing the election in this very important swing state.
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Market: Which party will win Florida in the 2020 presidential election?
Election Overtime: Anxieties amongst Americans across the political spectrum are understandably high, as many begin to navigate life beyond lockdowns, again. While it's still more than two months away, the election and logistics of voting loom large, too. As Congress returns to session tomorrow for a fight over the future of the United States Postal Service, some even wonder if enough votes will be cast and counted in time to declare a winner on Election Night. We spoke about the issue with Landers (who shared a similar forecast).
Next week: PredictIt will ask its crowd when they expect to know the 46th president.
Groundhog's Day 2020? Landers recently visited Wisconsin to talk to voters about Biden’s vice presidential pick in Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA). But as far as reporters in the field go, she's not in the majority. Reporters across the country have been grounded in the wake of COVID-19. Could this alter the way news organizations understand the electorate? Could it create a repeat of 2016? Democrats are holding strong in the market for which party will win the presidency, but as we close in on Nov. 3, what information is being missed? We talked to Landers about whether a Trump win is possible.
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Market: Which party will win the 2020 US presidential election?
Next PredictIt Happy Hour: Next week, join us for a PredictIt Virtual Happy Hour with CNN commentators Maria Cardona and Alice Stewart as they look back at the DNC and discuss the happenings of the RNC. We’re very excited to have this duo on considering their very busy schedules. They just launched a new podcast, "Hot Mics from Left to Right," where they discuss what they didn’t have time to get to air, but is a much-needed conversation at an unprecedented time of partisanship and politics. Alice and Maria have a unique ability to bring hot topics of conversation to the fore, with respect, civility and intellectual honesty. Register here.
Other Market Commentary from the PredictIt Community
To kick off the Democratic National Convention this week, Election Whisperer Rachel Bitecofer hosted an all-star lineup of campaign strategists, operatives and activists. Guests included Jessica Post (president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee), Ezra Levin (co-founder and co-executive director of Indivisible), Shannon Watts (founder of Moms Demand Action) and Guy Cecil (chair of Priorities USA). Check out the full show here.
The Political Trade dropped a new episode titled "Mark Vargas: Breaking Blago & Presidential Pardons." Mark Vargas has more than earned his political insider credentials as the so-called “mystery man” who achieved the impossible: nearly single-handedly brokering Trump’s commutation of former Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich’s 14-year prison sentence. But that’s not all. Vargas also assisted in securing Roger Stone’s recent commutation. He tells the full story, as well as sharing his insights on Jared Kushner, Kanye West, Mark Cuban, Michael Flynn and Paul Manafort that you don’t want to miss!
The Art of the Possible invited Kathy Peach, the head of the Centre for Collective Intelligence Design at Nesta (UK), on the show to discuss, among other things, why people are either good or bad at predicting, why women don’t bet more and why prediction markets could replace insurance one day.
We recently mentioned a new newsletter that’s dedicated to trading in political prediction markets joining the fray — The Voting Odds. If you have enjoyed the tips in the newsletter, you’ll love the podcast, too!
State of the 2020 Elections in Two Graphics:
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Source: PredictIt.org
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Source: http://electiondice.com/
Crowdsourced
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Crowds are information-aggregation machines. Here are some disparate nuggets of wisdom we found informative from the PredictIt crowd this week:
Old Man Wisdom — “The usual touchstone, whether that which someone asserts is merely his persuasion — or at least his subjective conviction, that is, his firm belief — is betting. It often happens that someone propounds his views with such positive and uncompromising assurance that he seems to have entirely set aside all thought of possible error. A bet disconcerts him. Sometimes it turns out that he has a conviction which can be estimated at a value of one ducat, but not of ten. For he is very willing to venture one ducat, but when it is a question of ten he becomes aware, as he had not previously been, that it may very well be that he is in error. If, in a given case, we represent ourselves as staking the happiness of our whole life, the triumphant tone of our judgment is greatly abated; we become extremely diffident, and discover for the first time that our belief does not reach so far. Thus pragmatic belief always exists in some specific degree, which, according to differences in the interests at stake, may be large or may be small.” — Immanuel Kant, former PredictIt trader
A Defense of Election Forecasting Models — "Critical thinking and analysis of information is as important as learning how to read or do basic arithmetic. It is especially important in the context of elections where pre-existing biases are deeply embedded in what information we expose to ourselves, how that information is presented to us, and how receptive we are to it. All modelers strive to be right, but ultimately, we hope the public will interpret our data with a skeptical eye and use it to refine — not define — their own viewpoints." — Scott Tranter, UVA Center for Politics
Prediction of the Week — Some political forecasters, as early as Dec. 2018, raised the contrarian proposition that the online fundraising campaign “We Build The Wall,” which was spearheaded by Steve Bannon, President Trump’s former 2016 campaign manager, could ultimately end up in a criminal lawsuit. That bold prediction appears to have paid off this week.
Submit your comments and links for this section via Twitter by tagging @PredictIt and the hashtag #crowdsourced with your submission. If we select your comment for the newsletter, you get a $10 credit!
In Case You Missed It!
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PHOTO: THE EPOCH TIMES/Flickr/CC BY-SA 2.0
PredictIt markets were mentioned often in the news this week, including by: CNN Business, National Review, MarketWatch, DraftKings (1 and 2), Reason Magazine, FintechZoom, Casino.org (1 and 2) and EconoTimes.
This Week's Quotable — from the EconoTimes’ article: “Will Trump or Biden win the US election? This could be a better predictor than the polls”:
"We know that prediction market prices match the underlying probabilities because empirical and lab research has looked at thousands of such market predictions, grouped all with a price of $0.4 together, and found that the predicted event underlying the asset, for example, the election of a particular candidate, did indeed occur in 40 percent of these cases. Similarly, for prices of $0.5, the underlying event occurred in 50 percent of cases, and so on. The prices are well-calibrated as probability forecasts."
We are always crowdsourcing new market ideas from traders. Send ideas to [email protected]. Be sure and include a legitimate resolution source.
Thanks for following the markets!
Team @PredictIt
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natural remedies for asthma
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Mullein is found in a variety of cough and herbal asthma preparations, relieving shortness of breath and lessening wheezing. Ginkgo biloba helps reduce the mechanism that causes wheezing and may be of benefit as a breathing treatment to some asthma patients.
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Inhaling moist air or steam works similarly to drinking warm liquids. It can help loosen up congestion and mucus in your airways, making it easier to breath. Take a hot, steamy shower with the door closed or use a humidifier at home. You can also try spending some time in a steam room.Dec 12, 2017
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sciencealive · 7 years ago
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Mars Curiosity
The Mars Science Laboratory and its wanderer centerpiece, Curiosity, is the most aspiring Mars mission yet flown by NASA. The meanderer's essential mission is to see whether Mars is, or was, appropriate forever. Another goal is to take in more about the red planet's condition.
Interest's size enables it to convey a large group of logical investigations to destroy, break down and take photos of any stone inside reach of its 7-foot (2 meters) arm. Interest is about the extent of a little SUV. It is 9 feet 10 inches long by 9 feet 1 inch wide (3 m by 2.8 m) and around 7 feet high (2.1 m). It weighs 2,000 lbs. (900 kilograms). Interest's wheels have a 20-inch (50.8 cm) breadth.
Specialists at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory outlined the meanderer to move over obstructions up to 25 inches (65 centimeters) high and to go around 660 feet (200 meters) every day. The wanderer's energy originates from a multi-mission radioisotope thermoelectric generator, which produces power from the warmth of plutonium-238's radioactive rot.
A confused landing
The $2.5-billion MSL rocket propelled from Cape Canaveral, Florida, on Nov. 26, 2011, and touched base on Mars on Aug. 6, 2012, after a challenging landing arrangement that NASA named "Seven Minutes of Terror." Because of Curiosity's weight, NASA verified that the past strategy for utilizing a moving technique with arrive sacks would likely not work. Rather, the meanderer experienced a greatly confounded succession of moves to arrive.
From a red hot passage into the air, a supersonic parachute expected to convey to back the rocket off. NASA authorities said the parachute would need to withstand 65,000 lbs. (29,480 kg) to dampen the shuttle's tumble to the surface.
Under the parachute, MSL let go of the base of its warmth shield with the goal that it could get a radar settle at first glance and make sense of its elevation. The parachute could just ease back MSL to 200 mph (322 kph), awfully quick to land. To tackle the issue, engineers outlined the get together to remove the parachute, and utilize rockets for the last piece of the arrival arrangement.
Around 60 feet (18 m) over the surface, MSL's "skycrane" sent. The arrival gathering dangled the meanderer underneath the rockets utilizing a 20-foot (6 m) tie. Falling at 1.5 mph (2.4 kph), MSL delicately touched the ground about a similar minute the skycrane separated the connection and took off, colliding with the surface.
NASA staff rigidly viewed the wanderer's plummet on live TV. When they got affirmation that Curiosity was sheltered, engineers pumped clench hands and bounced all over in celebration.
News of the arrival spread through web-based social networking, for example, Twitter and Facebook, and conventional outlets, for example, daily papers and TV. One designer ended up plainly well known due to the Mohawk he donned on landing day.
Instruments for discovering pieces of information to life
The wanderer has a couple of devices to scan for livability. Among them is an analysis that barrages the surface with neutrons, which would back off in the event that they experience hydrogen molecules: one of the components of water.
Interest's 7-foot arm can get tests from the surface and cook them inside the wanderer, sniffing the gasses that leave there and breaking down them for intimations with reference to how the stones and soil framed.
Interest can penetrate into each of these pieces and place a specimen into its stove to gauge its organization. Scientists will then check whether organics create the impression that shouldn't be in the piece. Provided that this is true, researchers will probably decide these are creatures catching a ride from Earth.
High-determination cameras encompassing the meanderer take pictures as it moves, giving visual data that can be contrasted with situations on Earth. This was utilized when Curiosity discovered confirmation of a streambed, for instance.
Essential mission: Can, or could, Mars bolster life?
Interest's prime mission is to decide whether Mars is, or was, reasonable forever. While it is not intended to discover life itself, the wanderer conveys various instruments on board that can realize back data the encompassing condition.
Researchers hit something near the big stake in mid 2013, when the meanderer transmitted back data demonstrating that Mars had livable conditions previously.
Powder from the primary bore tests that Curiosity acquired incorporated the components of sulfur, nitrogen, hydrogen, oxygen, phosphorus and carbon, which are altogether considered "building squares" or essential components that could bolster life. While this is not proof of life itself, the find was all the while energizing to the researchers engaged with the mission.
"An essential inquiry for this mission is whether Mars could have bolstered a livable situation," expressed Michael Meyer, lead researcher for NASA's Mars Exploration Program. "From what we know now, the appropriate response is yes."
Researchers additionally distinguished a tremendous spike in methane levels on Mars in late 2013 and mid 2014, at a level of around 7 sections for every billion (contrasted with the standard 0.3 ppb to 0.8 ppb). This was a striking discovering on the grounds that in a few conditions, methane is a pointer of microbial life. Be that as it may, it can likewise point to geographical procedures. In 2016, in any case, the group decided the methane spike was not an occasional occasion. There are littler foundation changes in methane, in any case, that could be connected to the seasons.
Interest likewise made the principal conclusive recognizable proof of organics on Mars, as declared in December 2014. Organics are viewed as life's building squares, yet don't really point to the presence of life as they can likewise be made through compound responses.
"While the group can't presume that there was life at Gale hole, the revelation demonstrates that the old condition offered a supply of decreased natural particles for use as building obstructs forever and a vitality hotspot forever," NASA expressed at the time.
Beginning outcomes discharged at the Lunar and Planetary Science meeting in 2015 indicated researchers discovered complex natural particles in Martian specimens put away inside the Curiosity meanderer, yet utilizing a sudden technique.
Since the researchers knew the gathered examples were at that point responding with the vapor, they in the long run determined an approach to look for and save the organics in the wake of separating, gathering and breaking down the vapor. Breaking down the correct arrangement of the organics will take additional time.
Other than chasing for livability, Curiosity has different instruments on board that are intended to take in more about the earth encompassing it. Among those objectives is to have a nonstop record of climate and radiation perceptions to decide how appropriate the site would be for an inevitable human mission.
Interest's Radiation Assessment Detector keeps running for 15 minutes consistently to gauge a swath of radiation on the ground and in the air. Researchers specifically are keen on measuring "optional beams" or radiation that can produce bring down vitality particles after it hits the gas atoms in the air. Gamma beams or neutrons created by this procedure can make a hazard people. Furthermore, a bright sensor stuck on Curiosity's deck tracks radiation ceaselessly.
In December 2013, NASA decided the radiation levels measured by Curiosity were sensible for a run Mars mission later on. A mission with 180 days traveling to Mars, 500 days at first glance and 180 days going to Earth would make a measurement of 1.01 sieverts, Curiosity's Radiation Assessment Detector decided. The aggregate lifetime restrict for European Space Agency space travelers is 1 sievert, which is related with a 5-percent expansion in lethal tumor hazard over a man's lifetime.
The Rover Environmental Monitoring Station measures the breeze's speed and graph its bearing, and additionally deciding temperature and mugginess in the encompassing air. By 2016, researchers could see long haul slants in barometrical weight and air dampness. Some of these progressions happen when the winter carbon-dioxide polar tops dissolve in the spring, dumping enormous measures of dampness into the air.
Interest kept running into its initially significant issue in February 2013, when a PC glitch punted the meandering lab into experimental mode for a couple of days. The issue caused an interference of ordinary science exercises, however did not affect the wanderer's long haul wellbeing.
In any case, an all the more long haul issue has been the condition of the meanderer's wheels. While some harm was normal, by 2014 controllers were making facilities in the wanderer's steering to back off the presence of dings and openings.
"They are taking harm. That is the unexpected we turned the tables on the finish of a year ago," said Jim Erickson, Curiosity venture director at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in Pasadena, California in a July 2014 meeting. "We generally expected we would get a few openings in the wheels as we drove. It's quite recently the extent of what we're seeing that was the shock."
In September 2014, Curiosity touched base at its science goal, Mount Sharp (Aeolis Mons) soon after a NASA science survey said the wanderer ought to do not so much driving but rather more scanning for livable goals. It is currently painstakingly assessing the layers on the incline as it moves tough. The objective is to perceive how the atmosphere of Mars transformed from a wet past to the drier, acidic states of today.
"I think the central suggestion of the board is that we drive less and penetrate more," Curiosity venture researcher John Grotzinger said amid a news meeting at the time. "The proposals of the audit and what we need to do as a science group will adjust on the grounds that we have now landed at Mount Sharp."
NASA spearheaded another penetrating strategy at Mount Sharp in February 2015 to start operations at a lower setting, a necessity for working with the delicate shake in a portion of the locale. (Already, a stone example broke subsequent to being examined with the penetrate.)
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Arnold Schwarzenegger's Instagram is actually kind of good?
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You can hate Arnold Schwarzenegger as an actor, a governor, or a "Never Trump" Republican. But you have to like his Instagram — even if it's just a tiny bit. Even if you can't admit it to yourself.
I know, I know, it's hard to believe that America's Kindergarten cop can actually have a good social media account. Someone with such a consistently mediocre Twitter presence and bland political persona typically doesn't produce good content. Strangely enough, Schwarzenegger does.
Schwarzenegger's Instagram is a weird mix of bland brand promotion, weightlifting, and extremely good and bizarre scenes from everyday life. There's nothing substantial here, just high-quality fluff. And that's what makes it — contrary to expectations — kind of good.
SEE ALSO: Pete Buttigieg's husband Chasten is the Twitter celebrity we deserve
Scroll right on past the Schwarzenegger chilling with Ronald Reagan post. Here's what you can find on Schwarzenegger's Instagram that's worth your precious clicks.
We've got Schwarzenegger biking through the snow like a happy old man. Where are his mittens? I'm concerned.
View this post on Instagram
A post shared by Arnold Schwarzenegger (@schwarzenegger) on Feb 18, 2019 at 11:12am PST
Then you've got a Schwarzenegger meets Dolly Parton photo, which, yes. Retro Schwarzenegger > modern Schwarzenegger, any day.
View this post on Instagram
A post shared by Arnold Schwarzenegger (@schwarzenegger) on Feb 11, 2019 at 10:55am PST
I stan, you stan, we all stan for (what appears to be) a long-haired Yorkie photo. Dog germs are good germs. Don't you dare get weird about "dog kisses."
View this post on Instagram
My prescription for recovery after a long day of skiing: jacuzzi + dog kisses.
A post shared by Arnold Schwarzenegger (@schwarzenegger) on Dec 27, 2018 at 5:27pm PST
An anti-gerrymandering meme? This is the kind of middle-of-the-road content I'm here for.
View this post on Instagram
It’s time to #terminategerrymandering but I need your help. I’ll fly one donor out to the Terminator set to hang with me. Donate at the link in my bio.
A post shared by Arnold Schwarzenegger (@schwarzenegger) on Sep 7, 2018 at 3:12pm PDT
Then there are photos you can't decide whether you hate or love, but that you've chosen to love because it's easier on your brain.
View this post on Instagram
Hasta la vista, week. Hello, weekend. Don’t miss #KillingGunther.
A post shared by Arnold Schwarzenegger (@schwarzenegger) on Oct 20, 2017 at 4:46pm PDT
It's satisfying to find at least one Republican who believes that climate change is both real and a danger to Earth. 
View this post on Instagram
This is my message about today's withdrawal from the Paris agreement. @attndotcom
A post shared by Arnold Schwarzenegger (@schwarzenegger) on Jun 1, 2017 at 7:23pm PDT
Then there are the 'grams that straddle the line between narcissistic and deeply pleasing, like this Schwarzenegger-on-Schwarzenegger piece.
View this post on Instagram
A post shared by Arnold Schwarzenegger (@schwarzenegger) on Jan 15, 2019 at 9:19am PST
I loathe the fact that Schwarzenegger often rides a bike without a helmet. But I do appreciate that the photo features him, a very large man, on a very small bike.
View this post on Instagram
Riding into the holidays like... No Lifts, No Gifts. Support After-School All-Stars and the fitness movement, link in bio!
A post shared by Arnold Schwarzenegger (@schwarzenegger) on Dec 8, 2017 at 2:46pm PST
Lift up your seat, Arnold.
View this post on Instagram
Fantastic bike ride through Paris. I cannot say this enough: to truly appreciate a city, get on a bike. Thank you to the tourists at the Eiffel Tower for letting me crash your photo!
A post shared by Arnold Schwarzenegger (@schwarzenegger) on Apr 29, 2017 at 5:22am PDT
I'm strangely not disturbed by the lack of socks in this biking video.
View this post on Instagram
Three steps to waking up after shooting all night: 1. Beautiful bike ride 2. One hour of training 3. Radler
A post shared by Arnold Schwarzenegger (@schwarzenegger) on Aug 5, 2018 at 8:21am PDT
When Schwarzenegger wears socks, he wears them poorly and proudly. Bless him for refusing to fold them down.
View this post on Instagram
It was great seeing your campus, Christopher! They should hire you as a tour guide! Love you, Dad
A post shared by Arnold Schwarzenegger (@schwarzenegger) on Oct 8, 2016 at 7:53pm PDT
Again, I'm a sucker for the large man, little bike/little doggie genre. Especially when that doggie comes with a dumb bow.
View this post on Instagram
I'm so proud that @katherineschwarzenegger's book, #maverickandme is out today. Here's me with my little rescue telling you to go out and buy it now. The link is in my bio!
A post shared by Arnold Schwarzenegger (@schwarzenegger) on Sep 5, 2017 at 9:44am PDT
Regardless of where you stand on the political spectrum, you have to appreciate a public figure who takes screenshots of tweets featuring FiveThirtyEight podcasts. It's so profoundly dry it's actually charming.
View this post on Instagram
Listen to this this piece on gerrymandering and how we fixed it in CA. There is hope for the whole country. Link is in my bio.
A post shared by Arnold Schwarzenegger (@schwarzenegger) on Jan 6, 2018 at 8:18am PST
I have to respect a man who's not afraid to go into public wearing a coat like this. I know this is a post nominally about the environment, but I don't care. I'm here for the coat. This is the ultimate Burlington Coat Factory coat, and I love it.
View this post on Instagram
It isn't about the size of the car - it's all about the technology. I loved test-driving this electric G-Wagon. Our green energy future is looking good.
A post shared by Arnold Schwarzenegger (@schwarzenegger) on Jan 22, 2017 at 7:32am PST
I also have to applaud a man who wears suspenders like this, then posts a photo of himself wearing them. Here, here. 
View this post on Instagram
Happy birthday, Joseph. Great student, great athlete. I'm proud of you and I love you!
A post shared by Arnold Schwarzenegger (@schwarzenegger) on Oct 2, 2016 at 6:56am PDT
Congratulations to whoever created this Photoshop masterpiece.
View this post on Instagram
Roast your friends along with your Turkey! Spend your Thanksgiving basting your friends and enemies with missiles. #ad smarturl.it/TurkeyRoastIG
A post shared by Arnold Schwarzenegger (@schwarzenegger) on Nov 24, 2016 at 9:05am PST
But let's be real. I know why you're all here. It's to watch this incredible TikTok of Arnold Schwarzenegger riding a bike and following a tiny horse, which he has since reposted to Instagram.
Does content does get better than this? It does not, my friends. This is peak content. It is profoundly dumb. It is, at its core, useless. This is absurdism and nihilism wrapped up in one viral video burrito.
I love this shit. I am grateful to Schwarzenegger for creating and reposting this viral masterpiece. 
View this post on Instagram
Whiskey has a morning fitness routine too. #shouldvebeenacowboy #tiktok
A post shared by Arnold Schwarzenegger (@schwarzenegger) on Mar 21, 2019 at 11:53am PDT
Whatever you think of Schwarzenegger and his politics, you have to respect the beautiful emptiness at the heart of his Instagram account. This, more than anything else, is what the internet is good for.
WATCH: Meet Katie Bouman, one of the scientists who helped capture the first black hole image
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goldenrenjun · 7 years ago
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60 truths tag
@sugaegyc tagged me to do this a while ago but here we are !
1. Nickname(s): Kate 2. Bias: Yoongi <3 3. Blood type:  idk 4. Relationship status: single 5. Birthday: nov 8 6. Zodiac sign: scorpio but not much of it is applicable ,,,  7. Pronouns: She/her 8. Hair length: medium/short its gross n im cutting it tomorrow 9. Height: 5′2″ 157.48cm 10. A crush: Not sure if i’ve had a single crush but i lov yoongi n i don know whats going on 11. What do you like about yourself: I’m pretty intentional person 12. Right or left handed: Right 13. List of three favourite colours: white / gray / peach 14. Right now eating: nothing  15. Right now drinking: tea !!! 16. I’m about to: watch bon voyage n go to sleep 17. Listening to: rain (a bop especially bc that track from yoongis mixtape is in the bg) 18. Kids: nope 19. Get married: nope 20. Recent phone call: my dad 21. Have you ever dated someone twice: I'd probably have to date someone once first 22. Been cheated on: nope 23. Kissed someone and regretted it: its not rly a fair question if i haven’t / dont want to kiss nyone 24. Lost someone special: no 25. Been depressed: nope 26. Been drunk and thrown up: i mean ,, i dont drink so no 27. Had glasses or contacts: no 28. Had sex on a first date: these questions are rly overestimating me like ,,, id have to want to go on a date first 29. Broken someone’s heart: no 30. Turned someone down: no lmao 31. Cried when someone died: nope 32. Fallen for a friend: no but i get friend crushes all the time ?? like a regular crush but its exclusively platonic 33. In the last year have you made a new friend: yeah ? 34. Fallen out of love: no 35. Laughed until you cry: all the time !!! 36. Met someone who changed you: yes ? but not in a positive sense 37. Found out who your true friends were: no 38. Found out someone was talking about you: nope ! 39. Lips or eyes: eyes 40. Hugs or kisses: i only rly hug julie but yes to hugs 41. Shorter or taller: shorter ? is this abt romantic shit ,, theres a statistic somewhere ,, every inch over 5′ decreases the life expectancy by 1.3 years 42. Romantic or spontaneous: spontaneous i guess but idrk what this means? 43. Sensitive or loud: sensitive catch me crying 24/7  44. Hookup or relationship: uh ,, neither pls 45. First best friend: probably amber ?  46. Surgery: none 47. Sports I joined: a bunch when i was little but none of them were serious ... 48. Do you believe in yourself: i guess ? 49. Miracles: nope 50. Love at first sight: as much as i wanna say yoongi i remember telling my friend how i felt “emotionally detached” from yoongi ,,,,, nyways my past self ,,, cancelled  51. Heaven: nope 52. Do you have any pets: my asshole cat nibbles  53. Do you want to change your name: no idrc 54. What did you do for your last birthday: i went to the gardens with my family ! 55. What time did you wake up today: 3am & then when my alarm went off at 6 and then at 8 for real 56. What were you doing last night at midnight: sleeping 57. Something you can’t wait for: the BBMAs 58. Last time you saw your mom: an hour ago 59. What is one thing you wish you could change about your life: not to be emo but when will life grant me some cool ass friends who'll do dumb shit w me and also hug me 60. What’s getting on your nerves: when ppl make noises when they eat i hate it so much
ty for tagging me ! n .. thanks for readign if nyone read this ? im catching up on tags so im not gonna tag anyone but feel free to do it n tag me if u wanna !
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elizabethcariasa · 4 years ago
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Trump COVID executive actions sidestep stalled Congressional relief talks
Donald J. Trump announced on Aug. 8 four executive actions to provide COVID-19 relief in the wake of the stalled Congressional talks. (White House photo via Twitter)
By now everyone knows that Donald J. Trump decided to literally take COVID-19 relief into his own hands yesterday. Sitting at table in a meeting room at his Bedminster, New Jersey, golf club, surrounded by media and club members who served as a smaller surrogate rally crowd to cheer him and boo the reporters, Trump sign four executive actions.
One was a formal Executive Order. The other three were memoranda.
He and his White House staff who worked on the documents say they will provide assistance to the millions who saw their extra federal $600 a week unemployment benefits end on July 31 (or sooner). They also address people who are facing eviction due to coronavirus pandemic financial troubles, students struggling to pay loans and increase a bit the paychecks of those folks who still have jobs.
Those claims are debatable and the Democrats immediately did so. At issue from the get-go is whether a president can legally make such financial pronouncements.
The U.S. Constitution gives the power of the purse to Congress, not the executive branch, and even some in his own Republican Party were not happy with the unilateral moves.
Here's a closer look at the added unemployment benefits and payroll tax executive proposals. They are the two areas that have generated the most interest — and controversy — and are the more tax-related of the four weekend actions.
Unemployment help returns, in part: There is an argument that a president can move around money that's already been legislatively awarded. That's the plan with Trump's unemployment proposal.
The memorandum he signed yesterday, Aug. 8, directs the use of funds from the Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA) Disaster Relief Fund (DRF) to cover an additional $400 per week in unemployment benefits. The disaster aid that could be used would be capped at $44 billion; the DRF has a balance of $79 billion.
But the extra unemployment relief also requires that states pay a quarter of the benefit, i.e., $100 before Uncle Sam would add another $300. Some states are struggling financially, having already been paying out the benefits while losing revenue due to pandemic business closures and employees not making taxable money or buying taxable items. There's concern, since the mechanism is not clear, that if the states don't pony up the $100 residents in those states would not get even the $300.
Many also are worried about the source of the additional unemployment benefits. We're heading into the heart of an already historically active 2020 Atlantic hurricane season and forecasters this week revised upward their predictions, predicting more and more severe tropical systems before the season ends on Nov. 30.
If that new, scarier outlook holds true, FEMA would have reduced funds to use to help those who sustain natural disaster damages.
A quasi payroll tax holiday: The White House and most of the GOP Senators and Representatives agree with a reduction in additional unemployment benefits. They contend that the generous $600 add-on caused many who had low-paying jobs to stay home rather than return to work.
Others, however, say the continuing unemployment claims is because people don't have jobs to which they can return. After an initial hiring spurt in early summer, a COVID-19 resurgence led to another round of business closures, layoffs again and now some companies say they won't be reopening even after the pandemic is under control.
But Trump is insistent that given adequate financial rewards, people will go back to work and spur a quick economic turnaround. To encourage them to return to their jobs, he's opted to defer collection of the employee portion of the payroll tax.
This tax, created as part of the Federal Insurance Contributions Act, is the amount paid equally by employers and employees to fund Social Security. It is 6.2 percent from both parties of workers' salaries.
The memorandum Trump signed suspends the payroll tax from Sept. 1 through the end of 2020. The Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security (CARES) Act already suspended the 6.2 percent portion that companies pay. The employee deferment would be for those making $104,000 or less
If the employee payroll tax cut does take effect, the change would give, for example, a worker making $400 a week another $24.80 each weekly paycheck.
Note, however, that this tax break is a suspension, not an elimination of the payroll tax. At some point, theoretically, the tax would have to collected, meaning that workers would then see more than 6.2 percent come out of their checks.
But Trump says not to worry. "If I'm victorious, Nov. 3 I plan to forgive these taxes and make permanent cuts to the payroll tax and to make them more permanent," he said during Saturday's press-cum-political event.
UPDATE: Trump apparently heard from GOP allies as well as political strategists. Today, (Sunday, Aug. 9), the White House backtracked on a "permanent" payroll tax cut. 
Social Security worries: Tinkering with payroll taxes, however, is problematic, both financially and politically.
Payroll taxes go toward the Social Security Trust Fund, which covers the cost of the federal retirement benefit. Any delay in collection could pose up a potential funding gap if reductions are made permanent and the money is not replaced from other sources.
When Congress and the Obama Administration enacted a 2 percent payroll reduction (4.2 percent instead of 6.2 percent) for 2011-2012 to spur the Great Recession's sluggish economy.
But during the COVID-19 fiscal chaos, lawmakers on both sides of the political aisle oppose a payroll tax deferral or elimination. Many in the GOP are reverting to their budget hawk/Tea Party roots and might not be inclined to go deeper into debt, even for the popular Social Security program.
And in addition to the Social Security funding and political concerns, they don't share Trump's belief that a few more dollars will get more people working.
Keeping roofs over heads and easing student debt: The other presidential actions, an Executive Order directing Housing and Urban Development to take appropriate action to help renters and homeowners to avoid eviction or foreclosure, and a memorandum to continue the temporary cessation of student loan payments and the waiver of all interest on student loans held by the Department of Education until the end of this year, were not as contentious.
However, there still is some question as to their legality, too. Trump noted during the even at his suburban New Jersey golf club that he expects lawsuits challenging this COVID-19 relief actions. Such legal maneuvers could slow down any benefits from the president's solo moves, but also provide his with some political cover as Nov. 3 nears.
Or the House, which in mid-May passed its continuing coronavirus relief bill, the HEROES Act, and the Senate, where the majority GOP had to deal with infighting before coming up with its HEALS Act as an answer to the House bill, could get together, work out the differences in the two bills (there are 7 major ones), send a compromise deal to the White House and make Trump's proclamations moot.
As noted, it's an election year. Stranger things have happened.
No stimulus…yet: One financial assistance measure Trump did not address was another economic impact payment, aka a COVID-19 stimulus check. It's also what could get the House and Senate back to the bargaining table.
I did mention it's an election year, right?
The House HEROES and Senate HEALS bills each call for another base $1,200 per person coronavirus relief payments. There are differences on how much more would be provided for dependents and which dependents would qualify.
A you can see, there are a lot of figures from the Capitol Hill and White House coronavirus pandemic relief proposals. Percentage and dollar amounts related to the payroll tax, added unemployment benefits, dates when such actions would take effect and end.
But for this week's By the Numbers honor, I'm going to keep it simple. This weekend the featured figure is four for the four executive actions issued on Aug. 8 by Trump.
If only the rest of the time and taxes in this pandemic were that simple.
You also might find these items of interest:
Payroll taxes: who pays, how much and how if self-employed
Social Security payroll tax cap change could boost struggling benefits program
What a COVID-related payroll tax cut could mean to you now and your retirement later
  Coronavirus Caveat & More Information In 2020, we're all dealing with extraordinary circumstances, both in our daily lives and when it comes to our taxes. The COVID-19 pandemic and efforts to reduce its transmission and protect ourselves and our families means that, for the most part, we're focusing on just getting through these trying days. But life as we knew it before the coronavirus will return, along with our mundane tax matters. Here's hoping that happens soon! In the meantime, you can find more on the virus and its effects on our taxes by clicking Coronavirus (COVID-19) and Taxes.
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]]&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;
0 notes
celebritylive · 5 years ago
Link
Hilaria Baldwin has tragically suffered another miscarriage.
The mother of four shared the heartbreaking news on Monday, shortly after attending her 20-week scan with her doctors, and admitted that she was not expecting the sad outcome when she headed to her appointment earlier in the day.
The news is especially heartbreaking for Hilaria, 35, as she last suffered a miscarriage just seven months ago.
“We are very sad to share that today we learned that our baby passed away at 4 months. We also want you to know that even though we are not ok right now, we will be,” she wrote alongside a video of herself with her daughter Carmen, 6.
In the clip, a tearful Hilaria explains to Carmen that she doesn’t know how long it will be until the next baby comes, promising that she’ll “try really hard” to make a younger sibling happen one day.
“We are so lucky with our 4 healthy babies — and we will never lose sight of this. I told Carmen and took this so I could send it to Alec. I guess this is a good way to share it with you too,” she continued in the caption, referencing her husband Alec Baldwin and their other children, sons Romeo Alejandro David, 17 months, Leonardo Ángel Charles, 3, and Rafael Thomas, 4.
“I told her that this baby isn’t going to come after all…but we will try very hard to give her a little sister another time,” she went on. “I’m really devastated right now…I was not expecting this when I went to my scan today. I don’t know what else to say…I’m still in shock and don’t have this all quite clear. Please no paparazzi…that’s all I ask
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View this post on Instagram We are very sad to share that today we learned that our baby passed away at 4 months. We also want you to know that even though we are not ok right now, we will be. We are so lucky with our 4 healthy babies—and we will never lose sight of this. I told Carmen and took this so I could send it to Alec. I guess this is a good way to share it with you too. I told her that this baby isn’t going to come after all…but we will try very hard to give her a little sister another time. I’m really devastated right now…I was not expecting this when I went to my scan today. I don’t know what else to say…I’m still in shock and don’t have this all quite clear. Please no paparazzi…that’s all I ask
Tumblr media
A post shared by Hilaria Thomas Baldwin (@hilariabaldwin) on Nov 11, 2019 at 5:29pm PST
//www.instagram.com/embed.js
The couple had announced Hilaria’s pregnancy earlier this year.
In April, Hilaria announced that she had suffered miscarriage after her unborn child showed no signs of a heartbeat at its scan.
In the wake of that loss, when the mom announced her latest pregnancy she received some backlash from fans who questioned why she was sharing the news so early.
RELATED: Hilaria Baldwin on Why Talking About Her Pregnancy in the First Trimester Has Been ‘Liberating’
Hilaria was quick to defend her decision and explain her reasoning behind the choice by responding in part, “Me coming out and saying what is going on gets the news out there … then they move on to the next story. It’s been something I’ve learned over the past decade … this is one of the reasons I’m so active on social media. The news can take images for free from my page rather than paying a paparazzi to come follow me.”
Weeks later, she opened up to PEOPLE further about why she felt compelled to talk about her pregnancy early on.
“The one thing that’s been liberating is I told people my first trimester,” she said of her current pregnancy. “It was so stressful for me to have to keep it a secret on top of everything when you don’t feel well, and it’s like everyone is telling you to not say anything.”
from PEOPLE.com https://ift.tt/32DT7sk
0 notes
lindyhunt · 6 years ago
Text
A Look Back at the Most Memorable Fashion Moments of 2018
2018 will no doubt go down in popular memory as a very, very bad year. Political headlines tended to dominate the news, and most of them were bleak: Brett Kavanaugh was confirmed to the Supreme Court despite allegations of sexual misconduct, mass shootings were disturbingly common, and the Toronto van attack hit close to home. And yet, fashion was not without its share of remarkable, newsworthy stories. Let’s take a look back at the most surprising and memorable fashion moments that made up 2018.
View this post on Instagram
A double helping of girl power. #goldenglobes #timesupnow “We’re here to stand up for all women and men who have been silenced by abuse and harassment and abuse within their industry; not just Hollywood. All industries.”-@reesewitherspoon Eva Longoria “We’re here to wear black to say Times Up on this imbalance of power. We’re also here to honour the women who came out originally and who really kicked the door open for this conversation. Asia Argento, Rosanna Arquette, Ashley Judd and Salma Hayak. These women were so brave; we’re just building on their message and their work.”-@evalongoria
A post shared by FASHION Magazine (@fashioncanada) on Jan 7, 2018 at 5:33pm PST
The Golden Globes Blackout Protest
The year began in earnest with a sombre display. Only four months after the New Yorker published a story detailing  Harvey Weinstein’s decades-long history of abuse that rocked the entertainment industry and spurred the resurgence of the #MeToo movement (first invented by Tarana Burke in 2007), actresses stood together at the Golden Globes wearing a funereal dirge of black on the normally cheery red carpet. Though the hue was one of mourning, the mood was not, with many finding great power and hope in the solidarity of the gesture. According to Time’s Up, the organization formed in the wake of the industry’s reckoning, 1 in 3 women ages 18 to 34 have been sexually harassed at work, and 71% of those women said they did not report it. By wearing black to support the cause, Hollywood’s most famous faces helped shine a light on an omnipresent but oft-buried issue.
View this post on Instagram
INTRODUCING CELINE NEW LOGO ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ #CELINEBYHEDISLIMANE
A post shared by CELINE (@celine) on Sep 2, 2018 at 1:15pm PDT
Hedi Slimane Named Phoebe Philo’s Successor at Céline
The fashion industry quaked when Hedi Slimane was appointed the successor to Phoebe Philo’s quiet, slow fashion empire at Céline. Philo dealt in the business of creating elegant silhouettes that quietly telegraphed the power of the wearer, and Slimane, best known for his loud, derivative rock’n’roll designs was viewed as a comically bad fit for the role. Requiems for the brand began to sound, resale prices for Philo-era Céline went way up, and an Instagram account titled @oldceline (run by former FASHION intern Gabrielle Boucie) popped up to deify the era. Ultimately, the appointment of Slimane spelled the death knell for one of the most beloved brands in popular imagination, as they pivoted from producing subtle, resonant garments to pure commercial strategy. RIP Céline.
View this post on Instagram
BREAKING FASHION NEWS: #VirgilAbloh founder of #OffWhite named new Creative Director of menswear at #LouisVuitton 🙌🏽🙌🏽🙌🏽
A post shared by FASHION Magazine (@fashioncanada) on Mar 26, 2018 at 3:54am PDT
Virgil Abloh Takes Over at Louis Vuitton Men’s
In March, Louis Vuitton named the first African-American artistic director in the label’s history: Virgil Abloh. Best known for designing T-shirts with abbreviated quotation marks for his brand Off-White, Abloh has cultivated devoted following in the streetwear arena. The beginning of his appointment at the artistic director of Louis Vuitton menswear spells the beginning of a new era where hype-based streetwear is synonymous with old-world luxury. Abloh’s appointment was a canny move for both parties, imbuing Abloh with  supplemental street cred as a designer, plus sparked a newfound desire for Louis Vuitton goods amongst a demographic — primarily young Black men — that hadn’t previously viewed Louis Vuitton as aspirational.
View this post on Instagram
Sealed with a Kiss 💍💋 #HarryandMeghan
A post shared by FASHION Magazine (@fashioncanada) on May 19, 2018 at 5:40am PDT
Meghan Markle’s Wedding Dress
From her monumental royal wedding, to her pregnancy announcement to literally every single thing she wore, Meghan Markle was one of the biggest newsmakers of the year. On May 19th, countless North Americans rose at 4am and rubbed their eyes to witness the lavish royal wedding between the former Suits actress and Prince Harry. After months of speculation, Markle stepped out in a surprisingly simple white boatneck gown designed by Claire Waight Keller for Givenchy. Royal historian and curator Alexandra Kim told FASHION that Markle is “rather like a magician in the way she finds the delicate balance between remaining true to her own sense of style while honouring the elements expected of a royal wedding.” The simplicity of dress was juxtaposed with an ornamental veil depicting the distinctive flora of all 53 Commonwealth countries. For her more casual, private wedding reception, Markle changed into a Studio 54-worthy white halter neck dress by Stella McCartney.
View this post on Instagram
We are so sad to hear about the passing of Kate Spade today. Rest in peace to the talented designer. The fashion world won’t be the same without you. #RIPkatespade 💔 ♠️
A post shared by FASHION Magazine (@fashioncanada) on Jun 5, 2018 at 10:13am PDT
Designer Kate Spade Dies
Kate Spade, purveyor of sunnily optimistic handbags, died on June 5th, 2018 of suicide. Her death came as a shock, as many found themselves searching for answers to s make sense of the gulf that seemingly existed between her bubbly public persona and private despair. Many opted to share their stories about the impact Spade and her namesake products had on their own lives. For FASHION, Jenn Shinouda-Levine wrote, “Her signature polka dots and bows have been my salvation in a way akin to support groups, SSRIs and exercise. They are the armour of a person who is kicking against the darkness, albeit with well-manicured accessories. I often fear that one day that darkness is going to swallow me whole and everything, including lemon prints and flamingo clutches, will look flat and colourless to me. Fashion might appear superfluous to some, but it’s so often an external reflection of whether we have a bit of spring in our step.”
View this post on Instagram
#MelaniaTrump wears #Zara jacket "I really don't care, do you?" cost $39 during her visit immigrant children in a detention center in Texas
A post shared by Fashion Hooligans (@fashionhooligans) on Jun 21, 2018 at 11:05pm PDT
Melania Trump’s Offensive Jacket
On June 21st, First Lady Melania Trump was photographed stepping out of a vehicle on her way to visit migrant detention centres in Texas wearing an army green jacket with the words “I REALLY DON’T CARE, DO U?” scrawled in paint on the back. The jacket was identified as a $39 item from Zara and perhaps even more puzzling than Melania’s decision to wear the jacket at such a sensitive moment was the mystery of how the designer duds-loving First Lady even her hands on a jacket from Zara. We described the jacket as “less poor taste than it is downright offensive” considering the callous message it sent out: that migrant children who have been separated from their families do not matter. Trump maintained the jacket had no such meaning until months later, when she admitted that the weaponized message was aimed at journalists reporting on her husband’s infidelities.
View this post on Instagram
It’s here! @beyonce stars on the cover of our September issue. Tap the link in our bio to read the full story. Photographed by @tylersphotos, fashion editor @tonnegood, Vogue, September 2018.
A post shared by Vogue (@voguemagazine) on Aug 6, 2018 at 6:00am PDT
Tyler Mitchell Shoots the Cover of Vogue
A 23-year-old Black photographer shooting Beyoncé for the cover of Vogue would be noteworthy in itself, but what made the story truly historic was that Mitchell is the first Black photographer hired to shoot the cover of Vogue in the entirety of the magazine’s 126 year history. According to sources, Beyoncé was given “unprecedented control” over the images of her that appeared in the magazine, and handpicked Mitchell to photograph her cover. So we have Beyoncé to thank for using her platform to amplify the voices of Black creators in mainstream culture.
View this post on Instagram
@dolcegabbana RT/RP @pushkanews ・・・ ​​​​Dolce&Gabbana опять в центре скандала, расисткого. Бренд запостил несколько рекламных роликов, на которых азиатка пытается палочками поесть традиционную итальянскую еду. Ролик набрал 120(!) млн просмотров на китайском сервисе Weibo, разгорелось нехило. Добавим, что китайцы являются главными потребителями люксовых товаров в мире, на них приходится больше трети глобальных трат на предметы роскоши.

#dolcegabbana #DGTheGreatShow #DGLovesChina #runway #fashionshow #racism #dolceandgabbana #stefanogabbana #chinese #asianmodel #asian
A post shared by Sire Arevalo (@urmajestysire) on Nov 21, 2018 at 6:01am PST
  Dolce & Gabbana Slammed for Racism
In a bid to capitalize on China becoming the second-largest market in the world after North America, Dolce & Gabbana attempted to show their appreciation for Chinese culture by releasing a video featuring a Chinese model struggling to eat Italian food using chopsticks. The video was widely decried as ignorant and culturally insensitive but the real drama began when screenshots of Stefano Gabbana calling Chinese people “Ignorant dirty smelling mafia” as well as the poop emoji were leaked to the media. At first, Gabbana claimed he had been hacked (yeah, right) but eventually took ownership of his words and apologized. However, Gabbana has a long history of having #nofilter, and this incident sealed Dolce & Gabbana’s status as fashion pariahs. Despite the apology, we predict it is unlikely the brand’s reputation will recover after this ugly debacle.
0 notes
jessicakehoe · 6 years ago
Text
A Look Back at the Most Memorable Fashion Moments of 2018
2018 will no doubt go down in popular memory as a very, very bad year. Political headlines tended to dominate the news, and most of them were bleak: Brett Kavanaugh was confirmed to the Supreme Court despite allegations of sexual misconduct, mass shootings were disturbingly common, and the Toronto van attack hit close to home. And yet, fashion was not without its share of remarkable, newsworthy stories. Let’s take a look back at the most surprising and memorable fashion moments that made up 2018.
View this post on Instagram
A double helping of girl power. #goldenglobes #timesupnow “We’re here to stand up for all women and men who have been silenced by abuse and harassment and abuse within their industry; not just Hollywood. All industries.”-@reesewitherspoon Eva Longoria “We’re here to wear black to say Times Up on this imbalance of power. We’re also here to honour the women who came out originally and who really kicked the door open for this conversation. Asia Argento, Rosanna Arquette, Ashley Judd and Salma Hayak. These women were so brave; we’re just building on their message and their work.”-@evalongoria
A post shared by FASHION Magazine (@fashioncanada) on Jan 7, 2018 at 5:33pm PST
The Golden Globes Blackout Protest
The year began in earnest with a sombre display. Only four months after the New Yorker published a story detailing  Harvey Weinstein’s decades-long history of abuse that rocked the entertainment industry and spurred the resurgence of the #MeToo movement (first invented by Tarana Burke in 2007), actresses stood together at the Golden Globes wearing a funereal dirge of black on the normally cheery red carpet. Though the hue was one of mourning, the mood was not, with many finding great power and hope in the solidarity of the gesture. According to Time’s Up, the organization formed in the wake of the industry’s reckoning, 1 in 3 women ages 18 to 34 have been sexually harassed at work, and 71% of those women said they did not report it. By wearing black to support the cause, Hollywood’s most famous faces helped shine a light on an omnipresent but oft-buried issue.
View this post on Instagram
INTRODUCING CELINE NEW LOGO ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ #CELINEBYHEDISLIMANE
A post shared by CELINE (@celine) on Sep 2, 2018 at 1:15pm PDT
Hedi Slimane Named Phoebe Philo’s Successor at Céline
The fashion industry quaked when Hedi Slimane was appointed the successor to Phoebe Philo’s quiet, slow fashion empire at Céline. Philo dealt in the business of creating elegant silhouettes that quietly telegraphed the power of the wearer, and Slimane, best known for his loud, derivative rock’n’roll designs was viewed as a comically bad fit for the role. Requiems for the brand began to sound, resale prices for Philo-era Céline went way up, and an Instagram account titled @oldceline (run by former FASHION intern Gabrielle Boucie) popped up to deify the era. Ultimately, the appointment of Slimane spelled the death knell for one of the most beloved brands in popular imagination, as they pivoted from producing subtle, resonant garments to pure commercial strategy. RIP Céline.
View this post on Instagram
BREAKING FASHION NEWS: #VirgilAbloh founder of #OffWhite named new Creative Director of menswear at #LouisVuitton 🙌🏽🙌🏽🙌🏽
A post shared by FASHION Magazine (@fashioncanada) on Mar 26, 2018 at 3:54am PDT
Virgil Abloh Takes Over at Louis Vuitton Men’s
In March, Louis Vuitton named the first African-American artistic director in the label’s history: Virgil Abloh. Best known for designing T-shirts with abbreviated quotation marks for his brand Off-White, Abloh has cultivated devoted following in the streetwear arena. The beginning of his appointment at the artistic director of Louis Vuitton menswear spells the beginning of a new era where hype-based streetwear is synonymous with old-world luxury. Abloh’s appointment was a canny move for both parties, imbuing Abloh with  supplemental street cred as a designer, plus sparked a newfound desire for Louis Vuitton goods amongst a demographic — primarily young Black men — that hadn’t previously viewed Louis Vuitton as aspirational.
View this post on Instagram
Sealed with a Kiss 💍💋 #HarryandMeghan
A post shared by FASHION Magazine (@fashioncanada) on May 19, 2018 at 5:40am PDT
Meghan Markle’s Wedding Dress
From her monumental royal wedding, to her pregnancy announcement to literally every single thing she wore, Meghan Markle was one of the biggest newsmakers of the year. On May 19th, countless North Americans rose at 4am and rubbed their eyes to witness the lavish royal wedding between the former Suits actress and Prince Harry. After months of speculation, Markle stepped out in a surprisingly simple white boatneck gown designed by Claire Waight Keller for Givenchy. Royal historian and curator Alexandra Kim told FASHION that Markle is “rather like a magician in the way she finds the delicate balance between remaining true to her own sense of style while honouring the elements expected of a royal wedding.” The simplicity of dress was juxtaposed with an ornamental veil depicting the distinctive flora of all 53 Commonwealth countries. For her more casual, private wedding reception, Markle changed into a Studio 54-worthy white halter neck dress by Stella McCartney.
View this post on Instagram
We are so sad to hear about the passing of Kate Spade today. Rest in peace to the talented designer. The fashion world won’t be the same without you. #RIPkatespade 💔 ♠️
A post shared by FASHION Magazine (@fashioncanada) on Jun 5, 2018 at 10:13am PDT
Designer Kate Spade Dies
Kate Spade, purveyor of sunnily optimistic handbags, died on June 5th, 2018 of suicide. Her death came as a shock, as many found themselves searching for answers to s make sense of the gulf that seemingly existed between her bubbly public persona and private despair. Many opted to share their stories about the impact Spade and her namesake products had on their own lives. For FASHION, Jenn Shinouda-Levine wrote, “Her signature polka dots and bows have been my salvation in a way akin to support groups, SSRIs and exercise. They are the armour of a person who is kicking against the darkness, albeit with well-manicured accessories. I often fear that one day that darkness is going to swallow me whole and everything, including lemon prints and flamingo clutches, will look flat and colourless to me. Fashion might appear superfluous to some, but it’s so often an external reflection of whether we have a bit of spring in our step.”
View this post on Instagram
#MelaniaTrump wears #Zara jacket "I really don't care, do you?" cost $39 during her visit immigrant children in a detention center in Texas
A post shared by Fashion Hooligans (@fashionhooligans) on Jun 21, 2018 at 11:05pm PDT
Melania Trump’s Offensive Jacket
On June 21st, First Lady Melania Trump was photographed stepping out of a vehicle on her way to visit migrant detention centres in Texas wearing an army green jacket with the words “I REALLY DON’T CARE, DO U?” scrawled in paint on the back. The jacket was identified as a $39 item from Zara and perhaps even more puzzling than Melania’s decision to wear the jacket at such a sensitive moment was the mystery of how the designer duds-loving First Lady even her hands on a jacket from Zara. We described the jacket as “less poor taste than it is downright offensive” considering the callous message it sent out: that migrant children who have been separated from their families do not matter. Trump maintained the jacket had no such meaning until months later, when she admitted that the weaponized message was aimed at journalists reporting on her husband’s infidelities.
View this post on Instagram
It’s here! @beyonce stars on the cover of our September issue. Tap the link in our bio to read the full story. Photographed by @tylersphotos, fashion editor @tonnegood, Vogue, September 2018.
A post shared by Vogue (@voguemagazine) on Aug 6, 2018 at 6:00am PDT
Tyler Mitchell Shoots the Cover of Vogue
A 23-year-old Black photographer shooting Beyoncé for the cover of Vogue would be noteworthy in itself, but what made the story truly historic was that Mitchell is the first Black photographer hired to shoot the cover of Vogue in the entirety of the magazine’s 126 year history. According to sources, Beyoncé was given “unprecedented control” over the images of her that appeared in the magazine, and handpicked Mitchell to photograph her cover. So we have Beyoncé to thank for using her platform to amplify the voices of Black creators in mainstream culture.
View this post on Instagram
@dolcegabbana RT/RP @pushkanews ・・・ ​​​​Dolce&Gabbana опять в центре скандала, расисткого. Бренд запостил несколько рекламных роликов, на которых азиатка пытается палочками поесть традиционную итальянскую еду. Ролик набрал 120(!) млн просмотров на китайском сервисе Weibo, разгорелось нехило. Добавим, что китайцы являются главными потребителями люксовых товаров в мире, на них приходится больше трети глобальных трат на предметы роскоши.

#dolcegabbana #DGTheGreatShow #DGLovesChina #runway #fashionshow #racism #dolceandgabbana #stefanogabbana #chinese #asianmodel #asian
A post shared by Sire Arevalo (@urmajestysire) on Nov 21, 2018 at 6:01am PST
  Dolce & Gabbana Slammed for Racism
In a bid to capitalize on China becoming the second-largest market in the world after North America, Dolce & Gabbana attempted to show their appreciation for Chinese culture by releasing a video featuring a Chinese model struggling to eat Italian food using chopsticks. The video was widely decried as ignorant and culturally insensitive but the real drama began when screenshots of Stefano Gabbana calling Chinese people “Ignorant dirty smelling mafia” as well as the poop emoji were leaked to the media. At first, Gabbana claimed he had been hacked (yeah, right) but eventually took ownership of his words and apologized. However, Gabbana has a long history of having #nofilter, and this incident sealed Dolce & Gabbana’s status as fashion pariahs. Despite the apology, we predict it is unlikely the brand’s reputation will recover after this ugly debacle.
The post A Look Back at the Most Memorable Fashion Moments of 2018 appeared first on FASHION Magazine.
A Look Back at the Most Memorable Fashion Moments of 2018 published first on https://borboletabags.tumblr.com/
0 notes
michaeljtraylor · 6 years ago
Text
Trump needs a market scape goat
Editor’s Note: This edition of Free Morning Money is published weekdays at 8 a.m. POLITICO Pro Financial Services subscribers hold exclusive early access to the newsletter each morning at 5:15 a.m. To learn more about POLITICO Pro’s comprehensive policy intelligence coverage, policy tools and services, click here.
PROGRAMMING NOTE: Morning Money will not publish on Thursday, Nov. 22 and Friday, Nov. 23. Our next Morning Money newsletter will publish on Monday, Nov. 26.
Story Continued Below
TRUMP NEEDS A SCAPEGOAT — Another brutal day on Wall Street and President Trump once again decided to blame Fed Chair Jay Powell rather than face the reality that the U.S. economy is likely to slow down next year as the tax cut stimulus fades, a trade war with China looms and the deficit spikes higher with demand for U.S. debt declining.
The Fed is doing exactly what it’s supposed to at a time of very low unemployment and rising wages. And every time Trump bashes the central bank he makes it LESS likely that the Fed will look at sluggish growth numbers and sagging stocks and decides to slow down its pace of rate hikes. The central bank cannot allow itself to be viewed as caving to Trump or it will erode its independence and lose credibility with markets.
It seems clear that Trump – even as senior advisers tell him to leave Powell alone – is much more interested in having a fall guy to blame for the market decline than he is about having a better shot at the Fed pausing in December or reducing the number of hikes expected next year. For the moment he needs to blame the fact that markets are now down for the year or someone other than himself. And that person is Jay Powell.
And this is exactly what he did on Tuesday: “I’d like to see the Fed with a lower interest rate. I think the rate’s too high. I think we have much more of a Fed problem than we have a problem with anyone else,” Trump told reporters outside the White House. “I think your tech stocks have some problems.”
WHAT THE MARKET NEEDS: PANIC! — Leuthold’s Jim Paulsen emails on what might stop the market swoon: “Primarily, PANIC — a capitulation and widespread belief that a recession is imminent and the bull is over — that may represent one last great buying opportunity if we do not have a recession. So far most of the corrections this year have been calm, well controlled and thought of more as refreshing pauses made to ‘buy on the dip’ rather than things to run from. When we do bottom, I expect ‘panic’ to be widespread among the media stories and investors.”
Cumberland’s David Kotok emails: “Washout comes at any time in panic selling. This is what one gets from a Trade War. Thank you Peter Navarro. Now up to POTUS to make a truce in Buenos Aires. Then everyone wins. No truce, everyone loses more.”
HOW TRUMP MEASURES UP — Via Bespoke Investment Group: “It may sound hard to believe, but for all the talk about how well the stock market has done under President Trump, the Dow … is actually up less (25.69 percent) since he took office than it was under President Obama (40.94%) at the same point in his Presidency.” Read more.
Mohamed El-Erian in the FT — “Life would be better for equity investors if the transition from quantitative easing and ultra-low interest rates was unfolding against a backdrop of solid economic growth. Instead, the global economy is losing momentum and the divergence between advanced economies is growing.
“As a result, financial market choppiness has been ruling the day and unsettling investors. That leaves portfolios more vulnerable to technical dislocations and behavioural biases. Having been conditioned over the past decade to expect central banks to repress financial volatility and flinch at the first sign of market vulnerabilities, traders and investors are only slowly coming to terms with the less pleasant reality of a world of tighter liquidity.” Read more.
ENERGY SECTOR BLUES — Bloomberg Opinion’s Liam Denning: “If coming last in a popularity contest stings, consider how it feels to come first in an unpopularity contest. In Tuesday’s mass defriending of stocks, the energy sector managed to stand out in the worst possible way.
“The whiplash here is incredible. In early October Nymex crude oil was trading at more than $76 a barrel and the S&P 1500 exploration and production index was at its highest level in more than three years. Since then, they’re down 28 percent and 20 percent respectively. In relative terms, E&P stocks are trading at their lowest level on forward [earnings] multiples since Christmas 2008, another holiday season not noted for its bounding optimism” Read more.
WHAT IS THE FED TO DO? — Pantheon’s Ian Shepherdson: “Expectations for a March rate hike have dipped since Fed Vice-Chair Clarida’s CNBC interview last Friday. The renewed drop in stock prices hasn’t helped, either. But we aren’t at all sure that Mr. Clarida wanted his words to be interpreted as a dovish signal. …
“And this year, the numbers have been strong enough for the Fed—probably—to hike four times, one more than expected at the start of the year. In other words, numbers which were soft enough to stay the Fed’s hand in 2016, say, would not be enough now to do the same, given that the unemployment rate is now 3.7% and still falling, and wage growth is at 3% and rising.”
NEW THIS A.M.: SOFT GLOBAL OUTLOOK — From the OECD’s latest economic outlook out at 5:00 a.m. EST this morning: “The global economy is navigating rough seas. Global GDP growth is strong but has peaked. In many countries unemployment is well below pre-crisis levels, labour shortages are biting and inflation remains tepid.
“Yet, global trade and investment have been slowing on the back of increases in bilateral tariffs while many emerging market economies are experiencing capital outflows and a weakening of their currencies. The global economy looks set for a soft landing, with global GDP growth projected to slow from 3.7 percent in 2018 to 3.5 percent in 2019-20.
“However, downside risks abound and policy makers will have to steer their economies carefully towards sustainable, albeit slower, GDP growth. Engineering soft landings has always been a delicate exercise and is especially challenging today.”
The OECD has the U.S. growing at a 2.7 percent pace in 2019 and 2.1 percent in 2020, hardly numbers Trump would celebrate.
A LEAD FOR THE AGES — Via the NYT’s Mark Lander: “President Trump defied the nation’s intelligence agencies and a growing body of evidence on Tuesday to declare his unswerving loyalty to Saudi Arabia, asserting that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s culpability for the killing of Jamal Khashoggi might never be known.” Read more.
GOOD WEDNESDAY MORNING — Wishing a blessed and peaceful Thanksgiving to all. Don’t talk politics around the table. Email me on [email protected] and follow me on Twitter @morningmoneyben. Email Aubree Eliza Weaver at [email protected] and follow her on Twitter @AubreeEWeaver.
THIS MORNING ON POLITICO PRO FINANCIAL SERVICES — Victoria Guida: BANK PROFITS SOAR IN WAKE OF TAX CUTS, REGULATORY ROLLBACKS — “Bank profits continue to hit new highs, reaching a record $62 billion in the third quarter, as lenders reap the benefits of lower taxes and looser regulations. Third quarter bank profits were up 29.3 percent from the same period last year, according to new data from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., and only 3.5 percent of banks were unprofitable, compared to 4 percent a year ago. The data was released hours after the FDIC voted to sign on to a Federal Reserve proposal to ease a range of capital and liquidity requirements on large regional banks. Roughly half of the increase in net income was due to tax reform, the FDIC said, but profits for the quarter still would have been $54.6 billion without that.” Read more.
THE ADAGE “WORK HARD AND GET AHEAD” is a waning reality in America today. The question is: What can Washington do to foster more opportunity and prosperity in struggling communities across the country? POLITICO convened a bipartisan group of 14 business leaders, thinkers and policymakers to explore the problem and identify solutions that have a realistic path forward with political leaders of both parties. Read the latest issue of The Agenda to learn more.
DRIVING THE DAY — Big pile of economic data today ahead of the holiday for markets to chew on including durable goods orders at 8:30 a.m. which are expected to drop 2.2 percent headline and rise 0.4 percent ex-transportation. Existing Home Sales at 10:00 a.m. expected to rise to 5.20M from 5.15M … Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 10:00 a.m. expected to be unchanged at 98.3 … Index of Leading Indicators at 10:00 a.m. expected to rise 0.1 percent
FOWL NEWS: PARDONED TURKEYS DIE QUICKLY — POLITICO’s Sarah Zimmerman: “A pardon from … Trump ensures that this year’s National Thanksgiving Turkey — now known as Peas — won’t be anyone’s dinner on Thursday, but it’s unlikely he’ll see another Thanksgiving. …
“[T]he reality for Peas and Carrots is not a long life in country retirement. Like all other turkeys that are raised for human consumption, they’ve been bred to be plump and tasty, but they grow so big that they are likely to suffer from a variety of health problems that put their lifespan at less than a year.” Read more.
BI-PARTISAN PUSH FOR TREAUSRY TRANSPARENCY — POLITICO’s Zachary Warmbrodt: “A bipartisan group of senators is pushing the Trump administration to move ahead with plans to give the public a greater view into the market for U.S. Treasury securities, which is critical to government funding and the broader financial system.
“In a joint letter to Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), Banking Chairman Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) and Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) touted the benefits of more transparency and asked when officials would roll out a plan for increased disclosure.” Read more
MARKETS UNLIKELY TO STOP THE FED — WSJ’s Nick Timiraos and Gregory Zuckerman: “Market turbulence is leading some investors to call on the Fed … to halt its campaign of interest rate increases, but the selloff in stocks and corporate bonds that accelerated Tuesday is unlikely to stop the central bank from raising rates when it meets again next month.
“Fed officials have signaled in recent days they plan to proceed with another quarter percentage point increase … when they meet Dec. 19, marking their fourth rate increase this year. The market pullback does underscore however the uncertain outlook for what the Fed will do after that. Fed officials are divided over how many times the central bank will raise rates next year” Read more.
IS THE SLIDE A WARNING ON THE ECONOMY? — NYT’s Matt Phillips: “Unemployment is near lows not seen in half a century. The American economy is set for its best year since 2005. Large corporations are producing giant profits. Even wages are starting to rise. And the stock markets are a mess. The losses extended on Tuesday, as the S&P 500-stock index turned negative for the year, stoking fears that one of the longest bull markets in history could be at risk.
“The stock market’s struggles may seem incongruous against the backdrop of strong economic growth. But stocks often act as an early warning system, picking up subtle changes before they appear in the economic data.” Read more.
No corner of the market was left unscathed — Bloomberg’s Lu Wang, Elena Popina and Vildana Hajric: “One of the toughest years for financial markets in half a century got appreciably worse Tuesday, with simmering weakness across assets boiling over to leave investors with virtually nowhere to hide. Stocks buckled for a second day, sending the S&P 500 careening toward a correction. Oil plumbed depths last seen a year ago, while credit markets — recently impervious — showed signs of shaking apart. Bitcoin is in a freefall, while traditional havens like Treasuries, gold and the yen stood still.
“Add it all up — the 2 percent drop in equities, oil’s 6 percent plunge, the downdraft in corporate bonds — and markets ended up doling out one of the worst single-session losses since 2015. The S&P 500 erased its gain for 2018, oil tumbled to a one-year low and and an ETF tracking junk bonds capped its worst streak of declines since 2014.” Read more.
OIL TANKS — FT’s Anjli Raval in London: “Oil prices plunged again on Tuesday, with Brent crude seeing its 2018 gains wiped out as concerns about swelling global supplies continued to sour sentiment among investors. Brent, the international crude oil benchmark, fell as much as 7.6 per cent, or $5.08 a barrel, to hit $61.71, its lowest point in more than 11 months. …
“[P]ledges by big producers such as Saudi Arabia to raise output have stoked fears that the world could be entering a period of oversupply. … Trump reinforced these expectations on Tuesday when he called the kingdom a ‘steadfast partner’ despite probes linking the killing of US-based journalist Jamal Khashoggi to Mohammed bin Salman, the Saudi crown prince and de facto ruler of the country.” Read more.
ZUCK/SANDBERG PLAN TO STAY — POLITICO’s Cristiano Lima: “Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg said Tuesday he plans to stay on as company chairman and work with COO Sheryl Sandberg ‘for decades more to come,’ remarks that come amid mounting scrutiny of their management efforts.
“The embattled Facebook chief was pressed on whether he plans to step down from leading the company board. ‘That’s not the plan,’ he told CNN. ‘I’m certainly not currently thinking that that makes sense.’ The remarks came during Zuckerberg’s first interview since The New York Times reported on Facebook’s ties to the Definers Public Affairs communications firm, which sought to link critics of the company to liberal financier George Soros, a favorite target for conservative criticism.” Read more.
TRANSACTIONAL TRUMP —WP’s Anne Gearan: “Trump’s declaration Tuesday that he won’t hold Saudi rulers accountable for the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi distilled the president’s foreign policy approach to its transactional and personalized essence. Nearly two years into his presidency, Trump is unswerving in his instinct to make everything — from trade to terrorism, from climate change to human rights — about what he sees as the bottom line. …
“He cited arms sales with the kingdom, its role as a bulwark against Iran and the threat of higher oil prices as risks to the United States if his administration ruptured the relationship over the Khashoggi killing.” Read more.
SMALL BUSINESS SATURDAY GAINS STEAM — Via a new survey from Consumers’ Research: “Small Business Saturday continues to gain in popularity with consumers as Black Friday continues to lose favor. Additionally, while online shopping remains prevalent, consumers are showing they still like and take advantage of the in-store option.” Read more.
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nicholerestrada · 6 years ago
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Trump needs a market scape goat
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TRUMP NEEDS A SCAPEGOAT — Another brutal day on Wall Street and President Trump once again decided to blame Fed Chair Jay Powell rather than face the reality that the U.S. economy is likely to slow down next year as the tax cut stimulus fades, a trade war with China looms and the deficit spikes higher with demand for U.S. debt declining.
The Fed is doing exactly what it’s supposed to at a time of very low unemployment and rising wages. And every time Trump bashes the central bank he makes it LESS likely that the Fed will look at sluggish growth numbers and sagging stocks and decides to slow down its pace of rate hikes. The central bank cannot allow itself to be viewed as caving to Trump or it will erode its independence and lose credibility with markets.
It seems clear that Trump – even as senior advisers tell him to leave Powell alone – is much more interested in having a fall guy to blame for the market decline than he is about having a better shot at the Fed pausing in December or reducing the number of hikes expected next year. For the moment he needs to blame the fact that markets are now down for the year or someone other than himself. And that person is Jay Powell.
And this is exactly what he did on Tuesday: “I’d like to see the Fed with a lower interest rate. I think the rate’s too high. I think we have much more of a Fed problem than we have a problem with anyone else,” Trump told reporters outside the White House. “I think your tech stocks have some problems.”
WHAT THE MARKET NEEDS: PANIC! — Leuthold’s Jim Paulsen emails on what might stop the market swoon: “Primarily, PANIC — a capitulation and widespread belief that a recession is imminent and the bull is over — that may represent one last great buying opportunity if we do not have a recession. So far most of the corrections this year have been calm, well controlled and thought of more as refreshing pauses made to ‘buy on the dip’ rather than things to run from. When we do bottom, I expect ‘panic’ to be widespread among the media stories and investors.”
Cumberland’s David Kotok emails: “Washout comes at any time in panic selling. This is what one gets from a Trade War. Thank you Peter Navarro. Now up to POTUS to make a truce in Buenos Aires. Then everyone wins. No truce, everyone loses more.”
HOW TRUMP MEASURES UP — Via Bespoke Investment Group: “It may sound hard to believe, but for all the talk about how well the stock market has done under President Trump, the Dow … is actually up less (25.69 percent) since he took office than it was under President Obama (40.94%) at the same point in his Presidency.” Read more.
Mohamed El-Erian in the FT — “Life would be better for equity investors if the transition from quantitative easing and ultra-low interest rates was unfolding against a backdrop of solid economic growth. Instead, the global economy is losing momentum and the divergence between advanced economies is growing.
“As a result, financial market choppiness has been ruling the day and unsettling investors. That leaves portfolios more vulnerable to technical dislocations and behavioural biases. Having been conditioned over the past decade to expect central banks to repress financial volatility and flinch at the first sign of market vulnerabilities, traders and investors are only slowly coming to terms with the less pleasant reality of a world of tighter liquidity.” Read more.
ENERGY SECTOR BLUES — Bloomberg Opinion’s Liam Denning: “If coming last in a popularity contest stings, consider how it feels to come first in an unpopularity contest. In Tuesday’s mass defriending of stocks, the energy sector managed to stand out in the worst possible way.
“The whiplash here is incredible. In early October Nymex crude oil was trading at more than $76 a barrel and the S&P 1500 exploration and production index was at its highest level in more than three years. Since then, they’re down 28 percent and 20 percent respectively. In relative terms, E&P stocks are trading at their lowest level on forward [earnings] multiples since Christmas 2008, another holiday season not noted for its bounding optimism” Read more.
WHAT IS THE FED TO DO? — Pantheon’s Ian Shepherdson: “Expectations for a March rate hike have dipped since Fed Vice-Chair Clarida’s CNBC interview last Friday. The renewed drop in stock prices hasn’t helped, either. But we aren’t at all sure that Mr. Clarida wanted his words to be interpreted as a dovish signal. …
“And this year, the numbers have been strong enough for the Fed—probably—to hike four times, one more than expected at the start of the year. In other words, numbers which were soft enough to stay the Fed’s hand in 2016, say, would not be enough now to do the same, given that the unemployment rate is now 3.7% and still falling, and wage growth is at 3% and rising.”
NEW THIS A.M.: SOFT GLOBAL OUTLOOK — From the OECD’s latest economic outlook out at 5:00 a.m. EST this morning: “The global economy is navigating rough seas. Global GDP growth is strong but has peaked. In many countries unemployment is well below pre-crisis levels, labour shortages are biting and inflation remains tepid.
“Yet, global trade and investment have been slowing on the back of increases in bilateral tariffs while many emerging market economies are experiencing capital outflows and a weakening of their currencies. The global economy looks set for a soft landing, with global GDP growth projected to slow from 3.7 percent in 2018 to 3.5 percent in 2019-20.
“However, downside risks abound and policy makers will have to steer their economies carefully towards sustainable, albeit slower, GDP growth. Engineering soft landings has always been a delicate exercise and is especially challenging today.”
The OECD has the U.S. growing at a 2.7 percent pace in 2019 and 2.1 percent in 2020, hardly numbers Trump would celebrate.
A LEAD FOR THE AGES — Via the NYT’s Mark Lander: “President Trump defied the nation’s intelligence agencies and a growing body of evidence on Tuesday to declare his unswerving loyalty to Saudi Arabia, asserting that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s culpability for the killing of Jamal Khashoggi might never be known.” Read more.
GOOD WEDNESDAY MORNING — Wishing a blessed and peaceful Thanksgiving to all. Don’t talk politics around the table. Email me on [email protected] and follow me on Twitter @morningmoneyben. Email Aubree Eliza Weaver at [email protected] and follow her on Twitter @AubreeEWeaver.
THIS MORNING ON POLITICO PRO FINANCIAL SERVICES — Victoria Guida: BANK PROFITS SOAR IN WAKE OF TAX CUTS, REGULATORY ROLLBACKS — “Bank profits continue to hit new highs, reaching a record $62 billion in the third quarter, as lenders reap the benefits of lower taxes and looser regulations. Third quarter bank profits were up 29.3 percent from the same period last year, according to new data from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., and only 3.5 percent of banks were unprofitable, compared to 4 percent a year ago. The data was released hours after the FDIC voted to sign on to a Federal Reserve proposal to ease a range of capital and liquidity requirements on large regional banks. Roughly half of the increase in net income was due to tax reform, the FDIC said, but profits for the quarter still would have been $54.6 billion without that.” Read more.
THE ADAGE “WORK HARD AND GET AHEAD” is a waning reality in America today. The question is: What can Washington do to foster more opportunity and prosperity in struggling communities across the country? POLITICO convened a bipartisan group of 14 business leaders, thinkers and policymakers to explore the problem and identify solutions that have a realistic path forward with political leaders of both parties. Read the latest issue of The Agenda to learn more.
DRIVING THE DAY — Big pile of economic data today ahead of the holiday for markets to chew on including durable goods orders at 8:30 a.m. which are expected to drop 2.2 percent headline and rise 0.4 percent ex-transportation. Existing Home Sales at 10:00 a.m. expected to rise to 5.20M from 5.15M … Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 10:00 a.m. expected to be unchanged at 98.3 … Index of Leading Indicators at 10:00 a.m. expected to rise 0.1 percent
FOWL NEWS: PARDONED TURKEYS DIE QUICKLY — POLITICO’s Sarah Zimmerman: “A pardon from … Trump ensures that this year’s National Thanksgiving Turkey — now known as Peas — won’t be anyone’s dinner on Thursday, but it’s unlikely he’ll see another Thanksgiving. …
“[T]he reality for Peas and Carrots is not a long life in country retirement. Like all other turkeys that are raised for human consumption, they’ve been bred to be plump and tasty, but they grow so big that they are likely to suffer from a variety of health problems that put their lifespan at less than a year.” Read more.
BI-PARTISAN PUSH FOR TREAUSRY TRANSPARENCY — POLITICO’s Zachary Warmbrodt: “A bipartisan group of senators is pushing the Trump administration to move ahead with plans to give the public a greater view into the market for U.S. Treasury securities, which is critical to government funding and the broader financial system.
“In a joint letter to Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), Banking Chairman Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) and Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) touted the benefits of more transparency and asked when officials would roll out a plan for increased disclosure.” Read more
MARKETS UNLIKELY TO STOP THE FED — WSJ’s Nick Timiraos and Gregory Zuckerman: “Market turbulence is leading some investors to call on the Fed … to halt its campaign of interest rate increases, but the selloff in stocks and corporate bonds that accelerated Tuesday is unlikely to stop the central bank from raising rates when it meets again next month.
“Fed officials have signaled in recent days they plan to proceed with another quarter percentage point increase … when they meet Dec. 19, marking their fourth rate increase this year. The market pullback does underscore however the uncertain outlook for what the Fed will do after that. Fed officials are divided over how many times the central bank will raise rates next year” Read more.
IS THE SLIDE A WARNING ON THE ECONOMY? — NYT’s Matt Phillips: “Unemployment is near lows not seen in half a century. The American economy is set for its best year since 2005. Large corporations are producing giant profits. Even wages are starting to rise. And the stock markets are a mess. The losses extended on Tuesday, as the S&P 500-stock index turned negative for the year, stoking fears that one of the longest bull markets in history could be at risk.
“The stock market’s struggles may seem incongruous against the backdrop of strong economic growth. But stocks often act as an early warning system, picking up subtle changes before they appear in the economic data.” Read more.
No corner of the market was left unscathed — Bloomberg’s Lu Wang, Elena Popina and Vildana Hajric: “One of the toughest years for financial markets in half a century got appreciably worse Tuesday, with simmering weakness across assets boiling over to leave investors with virtually nowhere to hide. Stocks buckled for a second day, sending the S&P 500 careening toward a correction. Oil plumbed depths last seen a year ago, while credit markets — recently impervious — showed signs of shaking apart. Bitcoin is in a freefall, while traditional havens like Treasuries, gold and the yen stood still.
“Add it all up — the 2 percent drop in equities, oil’s 6 percent plunge, the downdraft in corporate bonds — and markets ended up doling out one of the worst single-session losses since 2015. The S&P 500 erased its gain for 2018, oil tumbled to a one-year low and and an ETF tracking junk bonds capped its worst streak of declines since 2014.” Read more.
OIL TANKS — FT’s Anjli Raval in London: “Oil prices plunged again on Tuesday, with Brent crude seeing its 2018 gains wiped out as concerns about swelling global supplies continued to sour sentiment among investors. Brent, the international crude oil benchmark, fell as much as 7.6 per cent, or $5.08 a barrel, to hit $61.71, its lowest point in more than 11 months. …
“[P]ledges by big producers such as Saudi Arabia to raise output have stoked fears that the world could be entering a period of oversupply. … Trump reinforced these expectations on Tuesday when he called the kingdom a ‘steadfast partner’ despite probes linking the killing of US-based journalist Jamal Khashoggi to Mohammed bin Salman, the Saudi crown prince and de facto ruler of the country.” Read more.
ZUCK/SANDBERG PLAN TO STAY — POLITICO’s Cristiano Lima: “Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg said Tuesday he plans to stay on as company chairman and work with COO Sheryl Sandberg ‘for decades more to come,’ remarks that come amid mounting scrutiny of their management efforts.
“The embattled Facebook chief was pressed on whether he plans to step down from leading the company board. ‘That’s not the plan,’ he told CNN. ‘I’m certainly not currently thinking that that makes sense.’ The remarks came during Zuckerberg’s first interview since The New York Times reported on Facebook’s ties to the Definers Public Affairs communications firm, which sought to link critics of the company to liberal financier George Soros, a favorite target for conservative criticism.” Read more.
TRANSACTIONAL TRUMP —WP’s Anne Gearan: “Trump’s declaration Tuesday that he won’t hold Saudi rulers accountable for the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi distilled the president’s foreign policy approach to its transactional and personalized essence. Nearly two years into his presidency, Trump is unswerving in his instinct to make everything — from trade to terrorism, from climate change to human rights — about what he sees as the bottom line. …
“He cited arms sales with the kingdom, its role as a bulwark against Iran and the threat of higher oil prices as risks to the United States if his administration ruptured the relationship over the Khashoggi killing.” Read more.
SMALL BUSINESS SATURDAY GAINS STEAM — Via a new survey from Consumers’ Research: “Small Business Saturday continues to gain in popularity with consumers as Black Friday continues to lose favor. Additionally, while online shopping remains prevalent, consumers are showing they still like and take advantage of the in-store option.” Read more.
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from Garko Media https://garkomedia1.wordpress.com/2018/11/22/trump-needs-a-market-scape-goat/
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